2021-22 NFL Season

Bengals 20-23 Rams

The score was close, both teams struggled against good defensive line play (especially in the 2nd half) and neither offense took control. But the Rams were the better team in the 1st half and outside of the Bengal TD on the first play of the 2nd half (on another dirty play the refs conveniently missed (*)), followed quickly by a fluke interception that led to another FG, the Rams pretty thoroughly dominated the 2nd half. Not the most exciting game, but a close hard fought contest, this was more of a defensive contest than what I had expected. 

The MVP went to Cooper Kupp, who came alive on the Rams' final drive when they took the lead, and that's fine but it was Matthew Stafford that got him the ball and it was Aaron Donald that took over the game from the interior of the defensive line that kept the Bengals from moving forward, so personally I had Kupp third on my MVP short list. Some downplay the game but it was compelling entertainment throughout and made for an interesting close to the season.  

All in all, the Chiefs and the Packers (my pre-season picks) were arguably the two best teams from beginning to end. But the Packers forgot about special teams and the Chiefs just suddenly forgot how to play in the 2nd half of the semifinal. The Rams had the most talent but probably needed some luck (like not having to go to Lambeau Field in January) and the Bills were the second best team in the AFC, but did not get their lucky break (that instead went to the Bengals). Joe Burrow is firmly among the best QB's in the league right now and Stafford is now a consensus Hall of Famer (I concur: he already had a career's worth of stats, just needed a SB win to put him in). 

All right....already looking forward to next year (when my Bills should take that next step). 

(*) Wait...isn't every scoring play automatically reviewed? Live it looked like it could've just been incidental contact (the WR slowed down a bit and the CB bumped into him) but on the replay, it is plainly obvious that the WR yanked the CB's facemask and threw him to the ground--how do you review it and not notice that? And why weren't the Rams able to throw their own review flag? Frankly that was the Bengals' finest offensive moment and it was clearly a foul that should've nullified the score.

2021-22 NFL Superbowl

AFC: Bengals 30-27 (OT) Chiefs

Well, the Chiefs were dominating this match until they just stopped playing. They rather easily scored TD's on their first three drives while holding the Bengals to a single hard fought FG. Then came the Perrine play (swing pass to the RB, he breaks one tackle, gets a nice block down field and goes 41 yards for the TD), and the Chiefs bumbled the rest of the game away. Right before the Half, the Chiefs got the ball to the 1-yard line--3 feet from a death blow!--and rather than taking the FG, they try a swing pass to Tyreke that goes nowhere, clock runs out. (WTF was that?) No worries, though, the Chiefs get the ball to start the 2nd half...but they go nowhere. And rather than getting back to their 1st half mastery--all they had to do was keep running the ball!--they floundered throughout and I've never seen Mahomes flail so badly. The Bengals, on the other hand, kept their game plan in order and even stole the lead before the Chiefs finally put together a good drive (though Mahomes inexplicably tried to fumble it away) to send the game to OT. Well, in perfect Chiefs fashion, they won the coin toss and then....went nowhere all over again. Bengals win. Weird, man. The Bengals made the necessary adjustments at halftime to fustigate Mahomes but the solution to the problem was to hand off to McKinnon and run up the middle for 4-5 yards every time, eat up the clock and pile up FG's. Yeah...the Chiefs did none of that. The Bengals are good and they did what they needed to do to win but the Chiefs were the better team when they felt like it. I have no idea why the Chiefs chose not to win this game but that's how it worked out.  

NFC: Niners 17-20 Rams 

Back and forth game, neither team took command, though the Niners finally gave it away with a late interception. Both teams had a few good drives but I'd say the Rams were the better offense, with a missed FG, an interception in the end zone and an ill-advised 4th down attempt mixed in with their punts. The Niners had the lead for most of the game but I never felt they were in control, nor that they would win. The Rams tend to start well and then wane late in the game, but here they played a complete game and were generally the better team. 

(Did anyone notice all the late hits, helmet-to-helmet, out of bounds hits, illegal shots after turnovers, etc., in both games? Dude, they even threw a flag on the Niners defense and then just picked it up--wtf? Weird, man, both games featured a number of what looked like illegal hits to me that did not get called, seems like the NFL is going full Rollerball to close out this season)

Super Bowl: Rams (-4) @ Bengals (o/u 48.5)

I've been watching the Bengals all season and though I think the Chiefs were better (oh, and I still believe Buffalo would've beaten the Bengals, too), the Bengals are not a fluke, they are legit good, that offense is really good and the defense has been getting better over the last 4-6 weeks or so; and if you haven't watched much Joe Burrow so far, I assure you that dude is fuckin' good (*). The Rams at their best are probably the best team in the league but they don't seem capable of 4 straight quarters of excellence, meaning the Bengals will have a shot at stealing the W. My basic take on these teams is that the Rams start well and finish poorly and that the Bengals start slow but get rolling by the end. Based on that I expect the Rams to be up at halftime and probably starting the 4th quarter, but that the Bengals will be in contention and could well steal this game late. In other words: the final 2 minutes or so should be good stuff. While I wouldn't be surprised to see Joe Burrow lead a comeback, I think the Rams will make the necessary defensive stand and seal the victory. (I like either Aaron Donald or Von Miller to win MVP) I'll go with the Rams 27-24 (Bengals and the over).  

(*) My favorite Joe Burrow quality: whatever happened five minutes ago don't matter, that guy thinks only of the next play. You can tell, too, that his teammates kinda worship him--a necessary condition, I would suggest, in a truly successful QB.

NFL Playoffs

Chiefs (-3) at Texans
The Texans have a solid D....and not much else. Though they've played well for the last two months, they don't have any really impressive wins. The Chiefs don't really either but their early season losses are better and hide the fact that they were actually pretty good all year long. The Chiefs are the better team, better QB, better weapons, probably even a better D line and though the offense isn't overwhelming, they don't turn the ball over and that's the only hope the Texans have to score points. I just don't see how the Texans move the ball at all.  Gotta take the Chiefs to cover.

Steelers (-2.5) at Bengals
The Steelers are the popular pick as dark horse these days, while the Bengals haven't won a playoff game since...shit, I don't even know. But I watched both of these squads a lot this year: the Bengals are a legit squad on both sides of the ball and even with a backup QB, I think they can preserve field position and score points; the Steelers are so-so on D, a running game that is nice but nothing superlative, and while they have a great receiving corps, I'm not overhwelmed by the pass protection. If Big Ben can get over the top down field to his receivers then they can beat anyone in the league, but beyond that I don't think they're a very good team. Also, Big Ben is capable of throwing many many interceptions. I see the latter, I think the Bengals D is stout and I think even AJ McCarron will be good enough to get past the Steelers. I'll take the Bengals to cover and win.

Seahawks (-3.5) at Vikings
A strange thing looking over the Seahawks schedule this year: their most impressive win is at Minnesota in Week 13 (I'm not buying into a win at Arizona in Week 17, the Cards didn't need it, didn't put forth their best effort). Otherwise they lost to every other good team they played: Packers, Panthers, Bengals, Cards (in addition to getting inexplicably swept by the mediocre Rams). The Vikings lost in Week 1 at San Francisco but the other losses are legit: @Broncos, Packers, Seahawks, @Cards. Their wins include Chiefs, @Raiders, @Falcons, Giants, @Packers. The Vikings also remind me as a better version of the Rams, who seem to own the Seahawks. Both teams have been playing well for the last two months, so how do we weight the Seahawks victory at Minnesota in Week 13? Was that a preview of what's to come or where the Vikings playing opossum? I think the Vikings are legit, that D line is one of the best in the league, Bridgewater is underappreciated, Peterson is one of the best RBs in the league and I'm still kinda skeptical of the Seahawks and trying to win in someone else's house twice in the same year is pretty rare. All that said, I think the Seahawks' advantage is in the coaching: they've made deep runs the last 3 years, I think they can do it again whereas the Vikings staff has no track record whatsoever. I feel like the Vikings can hang but if the Seahawks get an early lead, I think they'll squeeze the life out of the Viking running game. I'll take the Seahawks to cover (but I wouldn't be surprised to see the Vikings show more than they've shown so far).

Packers (-1) at Redskins
Packers started off 6-0, looked great, arguably the best team in the league heading into their Week 7 bye. Then the wheels came off. Lost @Broncos (no sweat, Bronco D is solid, that particular game is when the Broncos finally got their running game going). Lost @Panthers (no sweat, that was the moment we all finally realized that the Panthers are actually good). Lost to the Lions (red flag! Dude, the Lions were trying to sooooooo hard to give that game away! And the Packers still couldn't take it!). Win @Vikings (sigh of relief for Packers fans, good win on the road against a feisty division opponet). Lost to Bears (uh oh, Packer fans getting the sweats again). Win @Lions (nice to get the W but that was the luckiest win anyone has seen in years, not exactly a confidence boost). Back to back W's against the Cowboys and @Raiders (okay, getting back to business, winning the games that ought to be won). Then finished with back to back losses to @Cards (no sweat, the Cards are frickin' good this year) and Vikings (uh oh, that was basically a home playoff game). Outside of Aaron Rodgers I think the Packers kinda suck. The D is not stout, those recievers are actually pretty terrible, offensive line isn't inspiring confidence, special teams isn't too special--what makes anyone think they're going to win a playoff game on the road when they basically just lost one at home? Redskins started mediocre, more or less stayed mediocre but they have won 6 of their last 8 games. They seem to have found their QB of the future and the D isn't bad. But are they better than the Packers? Well, they might be. The Packers are not terribly impressive right now and I think the pressure is on Rodgers to make plays in this game; if he does, the Packers can win but if the Redskins can keep him from doing big things, I think the Redskins can win. Indeed, I'll take the Redskins to win it at home.