(Hmmm....kinda focused on football for a while there and then I was under the weather for a bit and then I just let the mountain of stuff pile up for a while. Back now, gonna try to fill in everything I missed, which was a lot!)
Firings
Jason Kidd (Bucks) is no longer in the running for Coach of the Year. When Kidd first went to Milwaukee there was buzz that he was already politicking for a front office job. Kidd seems to have a reputation for wanting more than anyone wants to give him, so though the Bucks are much-improved under his watch, its not hard to imagine the long knives had long since been drawn and were ready to carve Kidd up the moment the Bucks floundered. The Bucks are getting better, they're moving in the right direction but in the lackluster East, they still seem disappointing, don't they? Oh well. Kidd was not a guy that built up love and loyalty among the ranks so when scapegoating time arrives, he was everyone's first choice. Joe Prunty will be the interim coach for the rest of the year.
Trade
Pistons get Blake Griffin, Willie Reed and Brice Johnson; Clippers get Tobias Harris, Avery Bradley, Boban Marjanovic, 2018 1st round pick, 2019 2nd round pick.
When I first saw that the Griffin was going to the Pistons, my first thought was, "For what? What do the Pistons have that the Clippers would want?" Oh yeah, cheap players. This was pure salary dump for the Clippers. They get Tobias Harris (a wing scorer that I kinda like on a much cheaper contract than Griffin's), Avery Bradley (a defensive stopper whose contract expires this summer) and Boban Marjanovic (a relatively cheap backup C), and a 1st rounder and a bonus 2nd rounder. The Clippers just dealt Chris Paul last summer, felt like they had chosen Blake instead of Paul, now it seems like they chose neither (and DeAndre Jordan, might wanna go ahead and start packing, I think you're next). Looking back over the Griffin contract, I understand completely: my god the steadily rising money for a guy that's never healthy and reportedly a bit of pill to be around! Yeah, let's make that someone else's problem. (What is up with Detroit teams and their insanely large contracts? They were able to move Verlander but that seemed like a miracle at the time) As for the Pistons...I don't get this move. I guess Blake has star power and in the East he probably seems like a real tough guy but I'd rather have Harris and Bradley and cap flexibility. To me the real signal here is that Stan Van and Doc Rivers are both probably on the way out. I don't think either of them would've made this trade because this isn't about the team on the court, this is about restructuring the payroll. I think the Clippers are the big winners, getting off Griffin's big contract is such a relief and the team itself has so much more room to be flexible this summer; as for the Pistons, I don't think this move makes them worse but I don't think it makes them any better either. They're a middle of the pack East team, perhaps they match up with the Wizards or the Pacers a little better now but going forward this hamstrings them for the next 5 years (and, oh, by the way: they're still paying Josh Smith!). Since Stan Van went to the Pistons I haven't understood any of his moves, I never understood his drafts, his trades (indeed, getting Tobias Harris was the best move he's made--and now he's un-made it!), don't see his philosophy on or off the court. And through it all the Pistons have actually been better than I thought they'd be....so maybe this move works, I dunno. As for the Clippers, I like these additions now and for the future, I think they definitely get the better part of this trade. I assume Deandre is out the door (how about to Dallas for Wesley Matthews and Nerlens?) and maybe Lou Williams too (I'd keep him, his contract is up this year anyway, just play him out) and this summer will bring them a new coach, new free agents and a new vibe for next year--and I think they've still got a shot at making the playoffs this year.
Signings/Waivings (*)
Suns sign Isiah Canaan and waived Mike James. They just signed James and then waive him...for Isiah Canaan? There must be more to this move that I don't see.
Rockets sign Gerald Green for the rest of the year. That non-stop offense just got a little non-stoppier. Green is one of those guys: you love him when he's playing well but you can't stand the sight of him when he's ball hogging and chucking bad shots. We'll see how he gets along with Chris Paul.
Lakers waived Andrew Bogut. Oh yeah, the Lakers had Andrew Bogut. (Any chance he heads back to the Bay Area?)
Knicks waived Ramon Sessions, signed Trey Burke for the rest of the season. Sessions only played in 13 games for the Knicks this season, would've thought they could've used a reliable veteran PG off the bench but I guess they preferred to skew younger instead. Burke had his shot in Utah and has bounced around a bit since then, still young enough to give fresh legs of the bench (or be a contributor in practice).
Magic waived Adrien Payne. (Hmmm...a far flung casualty of the Michigan State sex scandal?) I thought Payne's best shot at being an NBA player was when the Wolves hired Tom Thibodeau. Payne could've remolded himself as a defensive playmaker and become the 3-and-D guy he was meant to be. But, didn't happen.
Injuries (*)
Nikola Vucevic (Magic) hasn't played since December 22, out with a fractured hand. Should be returning any day now (just in time to make him trade eligible).
Reggie Jackson (Pistons) hasn't played since December 26, out with a sprained left ankle.
Dion Waiters (Heat), out for the year after ankle surgery.
Thabo Sefolosha (Jazz), out for the year after knee surgery.
Steve Clifford (Hornets), rejoined the team after an extended period away. (Glad to see Coach Cliff is back, hope he's in the pink again)
Kris Dunn (Bulls) hasn't played since January 17 because of a concussion.
Jordan Bell (Warriors) out indefinitely with an ankle injury.
DeMarcus Cousins (Pelicans) out for the season with a torn Achilles tendon. (I think I speak for all basketball fans when I say, "Maaaaaan....*sigh*....fuck")
Mike Conley (Grizzlies) out for the season after hand surgery. Conley only played 12 games this season but this move guarantees he won't get traded.
Tyler Lydon (Nuggets) out for the season after knee surgery. There wasn't much room for him in the rotation so not much of a loss for the Nuggets, but it sucks that he'll have to spend his summer rehabbing.
Kevin Love (Cavs) our for 6-8 weeks with a broken hand. (Guess he's not getting traded this year)
Retirings
Carlos Boozer announced his retirement from the Association. (The Association announced its retirement from Carlos Boozer several years ago, seems like he's just now getting the message)
Debuts
Up to 98 NBA debuts now. Since my last posting the league has been joined by Naz Mitrou-Long (Jazz), Nigel Hayes (Lakers), Davon Reed (Suns), Thomas Bryant (Lakers), Matt Williams (Heat), Malcolm Miller (Raptors), Myke Henry (Grizzlies), Milton Doyle (Nets), Kyle Collinsworth (Mavs), Tyrone Wallace (Clippers), Ben Moore (Pacers), James Webb (Nets).
(*) See this is why its important to keep up with this weekly and not take a month and a half off: there are way too many...*ahem*...unimportant moves to report over the last 6 weeks. So I've kept to the moves that seem more meaningful and discarded a fair amount of paper shuffling. And as for the injuries, oh man, way too many to keep up with, tried to narrow it down to long term injuries and/or more important contributors.
Wednesday, January 31, 2018
Sunday, January 21, 2018
2017-18 NFL (Conference Finals)
Division round results.
Falcons 10-15 Eagles
My prediction was that the Eagles D would keep the game sludge-y, then the Falcons would come back late and get the game winner at the buzzer. Well, that almost played out. The Falcons were serving for the win but that Eagle D stood up. The Falcons were kinda sorry all year long, never got to be as good as they were supposed to, felt like they could've pulled this game out but they didn't. The Eagles are reminiscent of the Jags now: superior defense, solid running game, QB you hope minimizes mistakes, play for field position, make your FGs, sell out on special teams, get takeaways. Good win for the Eagles, they can give that Vikings offense a game next week at home.
Titans 14-35 Pats
Mariota had one shining moment, nice early drive, made plays, hit a variety of receivers, Titan offense was fluid, best it looked all season. Yup. Then that never happened again and the Pats just steadily, steadily, steadily pummeled the weaker team. This was big brother/little brother for the 7th straight year for the Pats, they don't think about these games, they contemplate them and actualize them when the time comes. And on the other side is a pathetic newborn deer that knows nothing about how anything works. There was never much of a chance of the Titans pulling off an upset in Foxboro even with that first TD. This game was exactly what it was gonna be.
Jags 45-42 Steelers
The Steeler had this in them. They've been a slop fest on both sides of the ball, a wait-til-the-last-minute to be the hero kinda team all season long. It should come as no surprise that once they let the Jags go up 14-0 on them (before the game even started!), that it was gonna be just like that all day long. This was set up to be like that Ravens game that the Steelers came back and won at home; instead it was more the Bills-Redskins Super Bowl: two quick giveaways by the Bills, then the rest of the game is even, but never feels like it. To me the thing about Bortles is if he's your guy, you gotta rip it, make him throw the ball downfield, go for home runs and hope the mistakes are more like a punt; he's not a guy that will methodically carve up the opposing defense, he's a guy that could sting you if you're soft in the secondary. However, Bortles didn't even do that in this game. He methodically carved the Steelers up. They made OC Todd Haley the culprit (though to be fair, I think Big Ben's laissez-faire managerial style on the field leaves a lot to be desired), but damn man it was that defense that got smoked, the offense played really well! The Steelers are built to be kinda good every year but being the good team every once in a while seems less and less likely, not sure the Steeler way is keeping up with the times (Mike Tomlin....I like him but I don't understand him at all). Kudos to the Jags. They had their chance, took their shot and it worked out. Good for them, great victory.
Saints 24-29 Vikings
I had a premonition of this game while watching the Jags-Steelers: something like, the Vikings will never let the Saints start the way the Steelers let the Jags start. I foresaw a beatdown of the Saints by the Vikings, a thorough, consistent, Pats-like pummeling of the Saints, who perhaps rode 4th quarter heroics as far as it could go. At the end of the 3rd quarter, it was Saints 7-17 Vikings, with the Saints just scoring to get on the board and it looked like I nailed it. Of course, the Saints have been a 4th quarter team all year long, why wouldn't they wait to get started? The Vikings still had the lead, the mojo, the momentum, all that. Then Keenum throws a terrible interception! Just flings it up blind, basically from his own end zone (an ill-advised play). Ugh. Saints quickly convert that to another TD and now it just seems like a foregone conclusion that the Saints would come back late like they have all year long. (The 4th quarter of this game was the best quarter of NFL football that I can recall) The lead goes back and forth, great plays on both sides, great strategy, great football. In the end, it was miracle time...then there was a miracle. I don't even...still cannot believe that play happened, as inexplicable a play as I can recall in sports. Keenum to Diggs is gonna be a play seen over and over again. (Like Flutie beating the Hurricanes but even more improbable?)
This week's games.
Jags @ Pats (-8.5)
Some folks are under the impression that the Jags are for real now, that the defense is the best in the league, Bortles is ready to be a hero, Tom Brady has a busted flipper and the Pats are ready for a fall. Yeah, I don't see it. The Jags pass defense will give Brady quite the chess match today but I expect Brady to overcome it and I don't expect Bortles to do anything other than be Bortles out there. People want an upset, think the 8.5 line is too high. Nah, man, this has 31-9 written all over it. I'll take the Pats.
Vikings (-3) @ Eagles
The Vikings and Eagles are quite possibly the two best defenses in the league. The difference here is that the Vikings are coming in with their starting QB whereas the Eagles are scuffling with the 2nd stringer. I guess I'd be taking the Eagles if Wentz was in there but I've got to go with the Vikings, gotta figure that Keenum is not gonna throw a bad interception like he did against the Saints, gotta figure that the Vikings won't give up a blocked punt when the game's on the line again. And that's basically what this game comes down to: do you think the Vikings will make the same mistakes they made against the Saints or have they gotten those bonehead plays out of their system? I'm going with the latter, I think the Vikings play better throughout the game, squelch the Eagle attack, avoid mistakes and by the end have a 23-14 kinda victory. I'll take the Vikings.
Falcons 10-15 Eagles
My prediction was that the Eagles D would keep the game sludge-y, then the Falcons would come back late and get the game winner at the buzzer. Well, that almost played out. The Falcons were serving for the win but that Eagle D stood up. The Falcons were kinda sorry all year long, never got to be as good as they were supposed to, felt like they could've pulled this game out but they didn't. The Eagles are reminiscent of the Jags now: superior defense, solid running game, QB you hope minimizes mistakes, play for field position, make your FGs, sell out on special teams, get takeaways. Good win for the Eagles, they can give that Vikings offense a game next week at home.
Titans 14-35 Pats
Mariota had one shining moment, nice early drive, made plays, hit a variety of receivers, Titan offense was fluid, best it looked all season. Yup. Then that never happened again and the Pats just steadily, steadily, steadily pummeled the weaker team. This was big brother/little brother for the 7th straight year for the Pats, they don't think about these games, they contemplate them and actualize them when the time comes. And on the other side is a pathetic newborn deer that knows nothing about how anything works. There was never much of a chance of the Titans pulling off an upset in Foxboro even with that first TD. This game was exactly what it was gonna be.
Jags 45-42 Steelers
The Steeler had this in them. They've been a slop fest on both sides of the ball, a wait-til-the-last-minute to be the hero kinda team all season long. It should come as no surprise that once they let the Jags go up 14-0 on them (before the game even started!), that it was gonna be just like that all day long. This was set up to be like that Ravens game that the Steelers came back and won at home; instead it was more the Bills-Redskins Super Bowl: two quick giveaways by the Bills, then the rest of the game is even, but never feels like it. To me the thing about Bortles is if he's your guy, you gotta rip it, make him throw the ball downfield, go for home runs and hope the mistakes are more like a punt; he's not a guy that will methodically carve up the opposing defense, he's a guy that could sting you if you're soft in the secondary. However, Bortles didn't even do that in this game. He methodically carved the Steelers up. They made OC Todd Haley the culprit (though to be fair, I think Big Ben's laissez-faire managerial style on the field leaves a lot to be desired), but damn man it was that defense that got smoked, the offense played really well! The Steelers are built to be kinda good every year but being the good team every once in a while seems less and less likely, not sure the Steeler way is keeping up with the times (Mike Tomlin....I like him but I don't understand him at all). Kudos to the Jags. They had their chance, took their shot and it worked out. Good for them, great victory.
Saints 24-29 Vikings
I had a premonition of this game while watching the Jags-Steelers: something like, the Vikings will never let the Saints start the way the Steelers let the Jags start. I foresaw a beatdown of the Saints by the Vikings, a thorough, consistent, Pats-like pummeling of the Saints, who perhaps rode 4th quarter heroics as far as it could go. At the end of the 3rd quarter, it was Saints 7-17 Vikings, with the Saints just scoring to get on the board and it looked like I nailed it. Of course, the Saints have been a 4th quarter team all year long, why wouldn't they wait to get started? The Vikings still had the lead, the mojo, the momentum, all that. Then Keenum throws a terrible interception! Just flings it up blind, basically from his own end zone (an ill-advised play). Ugh. Saints quickly convert that to another TD and now it just seems like a foregone conclusion that the Saints would come back late like they have all year long. (The 4th quarter of this game was the best quarter of NFL football that I can recall) The lead goes back and forth, great plays on both sides, great strategy, great football. In the end, it was miracle time...then there was a miracle. I don't even...still cannot believe that play happened, as inexplicable a play as I can recall in sports. Keenum to Diggs is gonna be a play seen over and over again. (Like Flutie beating the Hurricanes but even more improbable?)
This week's games.
Jags @ Pats (-8.5)
Some folks are under the impression that the Jags are for real now, that the defense is the best in the league, Bortles is ready to be a hero, Tom Brady has a busted flipper and the Pats are ready for a fall. Yeah, I don't see it. The Jags pass defense will give Brady quite the chess match today but I expect Brady to overcome it and I don't expect Bortles to do anything other than be Bortles out there. People want an upset, think the 8.5 line is too high. Nah, man, this has 31-9 written all over it. I'll take the Pats.
Vikings (-3) @ Eagles
The Vikings and Eagles are quite possibly the two best defenses in the league. The difference here is that the Vikings are coming in with their starting QB whereas the Eagles are scuffling with the 2nd stringer. I guess I'd be taking the Eagles if Wentz was in there but I've got to go with the Vikings, gotta figure that Keenum is not gonna throw a bad interception like he did against the Saints, gotta figure that the Vikings won't give up a blocked punt when the game's on the line again. And that's basically what this game comes down to: do you think the Vikings will make the same mistakes they made against the Saints or have they gotten those bonehead plays out of their system? I'm going with the latter, I think the Vikings play better throughout the game, squelch the Eagle attack, avoid mistakes and by the end have a 23-14 kinda victory. I'll take the Vikings.
Saturday, January 13, 2018
2017-18 NFL (Division Round)
Titans 22-21 Chiefs
The 1st half was exactly what I thought it would be: Chiefs driving and finishing without much problem, Titans not moving the ball at all. Seemed like that would continue...and even after watching the game I don't know why it didn't. The Chiefs were without Kelce for the whole 2nd half but they should've been able to get some first downs. Alex Smith couldn't keep the field position game up. On the other side Mariota quite comfortably led the Titans on drive after drive through KC's D. I like Mariota and for the first time it looked like he is performing an Aaron Rodgers-like function, he's certainly not Rodgers but when he's making plays he makes a lot of mediocrity look workable. I bought into the Chiefs, man, I thought they had a good shot at making a run, started out okay, but they blew it--it's the way they completely forget how to play football as soon as something goes wrong that is troubling. Under Andy Reid the all-or-nothing ethic can turn anything into an insurmountable crisis. The Titans played with some spunk, got further than anyone thought they would (quite a bit further than I would've thought), had moments of looking pretty good out there. (They're gonna get smoked by the Pats, though. Thought the Chiefs could've given them a game but the Titans won't) I missed on the Chiefs.
Falcons 26-13 Rams
I was really impressed with the Falcons pass defense in this game. Felt like the refs were letting them play (can't help but wonder if non-calls become a controversy later on) and the Rams couldn't take advantage. I was surprised how tentative the Rams looked. I can understand some nerves, but outside of a coupla good drives late in the 1st half, they never got going on offense at all. The Falcons came out playing aggressive and were rewarded by the refs, good for them. The offense looked pretty good, the Rams pass rush was flying around but Ryan was able to make plays. The Rams have sucked for a long time, playoffs are for veterans, Rams just didn't have the moxie. (The Falcons can beat the Eagles, another team that just got good going against the defending conference champs (without their QB) and then another game in a dome...?). I missed on the Rams.
Bills 3-10 Jags
Yeah, this game was pretty much what I figured it would be: two terrible offenses against two good defenses. The Jags had one good drive, scored a TD and that was pretty much all it took. Otherwise, not much to report. The Bills hung around, played spunky, losing Tyrod with under a minute to go was not ideal (but didn't seem difference-making in the end), they capped off a good year under a new coach, got the fans back into it, showed some forward progress...now to get a new QB and start re-making the offense again...*sigh* As for the Jags, they've got a good pass rush, they're tough up the middle, but that offense is one dimensional and shallow at that. I know they already won a game at Pittsburgh this year, but I'll my eat my hat if they do it again. I was right on the Bills (+8.5).
Panthers 26-31 Saints
Yeah, this game was about what I thought it would be, too: the Saints score TD's, the Panthers get FG's. Saints (4 TD's, 1 FG), Panthers (4 FG's, 2 TD's). That simple: the Saints finish while the Panthers just get close. The difference between these two teams was minimal: Brees was more efficient and effective than Cam, the Saints D made 1 or 2 more stops than the Panthers D, otherwise pretty similar. The Saints added the defensive ROY (Marshon Lattimore) and the offensive ROY (Alvin Kamara) to a veteran squad with a great QB and they won their division for the first time in years. Now they're off to another dome. I was right on the Panthers (+6.5)
And the next batch of games:
Falcons (-2.5) @ Eagles
First thought is that the Falcons are playing as well as anyone right now, while the Eagles are playing wounded. The Falcons caught the Rams flatfooted and now they're catching the Eagles with a 2nd string QB. But that Eagles D is good, this game isn't over as some folks think. I think the Eagles will keep the Falcons from running up the score, if they can get Ryan to turn the ball over, the Eagles can definitely win. The Falcons are playing well but on the grass in freezing cold Philly, I think that Eagle D can get to him. I kinda like the Falcons to win, but I think they come from behind, I think this game is close and the Falcons win it late, I'll say Falcons 20-17). I'll take the Falcons (but just barely).
Titans @ Pats (-13)
Yeah, I don't give the Titans much of a chance in this one. I think Brady can play terrible and the Pats D can be atrocious and the Pats can still win easily and cover the spread. So I can't even imagine what the Titans would have to do--they'd have to start by playing their very best game of the year, but even that would just be a start. Mariota could be the wild card that Belichick can't account for, but how many times can Mariota make miracles happen? He'd probably need like 4 or 5 big plays at least to even be in the game in the 4th. We'll see, this Pats team is not exactly one of their best but they're still plenty good enough to take care of the Titans. If the Titans turn the ball over, this game will be over pronto. Thus game has 42-10 written all over it. Lot of points but I'll take the Pats.
Jags @ Steelers (-7.5)
The Jags pummeled the Steelers earlier this year taking advantage of an out-of-sorts offense that couldn't get a running game going. But the Steelers are prone to bad days, hard to imagine the Jags will catch them twice in the same season. The Jags do have a pass rush that could get Ben turned sidewise and keep Bell chip-blocking rather than moving the ball. But even if the Jags could slow down the Steelers, I don't see them scoring any points anyway. 7.5 seems like a lot but I think the Steelers are up at halftime and comfortably ride to a win, something like 28-13. I like the Steelers.
Saints @ Vikings (-4)
Ahhhh, the game of the week. Drew Brees has shown that he still has the goods and that offense is as scary as any in the league right now and the dome might seem like home to them. But the Vikings D has been, I think, the best of the year. If anyone could fustigate Brees, keep the checkdowns checked down and stop the big plays, its the Vikings. And on the other side, the Saints D is much improved but Minnesota's offense has been efficient and crisp and there are more vets on the Vikings side than the Saints. I'll take the Vikings to hold off the Saints late--seems like they have to win by more than a FG, don't they? I'll say Vikings 26-23. I like the Saints to cover but the Vikings to win.
The 1st half was exactly what I thought it would be: Chiefs driving and finishing without much problem, Titans not moving the ball at all. Seemed like that would continue...and even after watching the game I don't know why it didn't. The Chiefs were without Kelce for the whole 2nd half but they should've been able to get some first downs. Alex Smith couldn't keep the field position game up. On the other side Mariota quite comfortably led the Titans on drive after drive through KC's D. I like Mariota and for the first time it looked like he is performing an Aaron Rodgers-like function, he's certainly not Rodgers but when he's making plays he makes a lot of mediocrity look workable. I bought into the Chiefs, man, I thought they had a good shot at making a run, started out okay, but they blew it--it's the way they completely forget how to play football as soon as something goes wrong that is troubling. Under Andy Reid the all-or-nothing ethic can turn anything into an insurmountable crisis. The Titans played with some spunk, got further than anyone thought they would (quite a bit further than I would've thought), had moments of looking pretty good out there. (They're gonna get smoked by the Pats, though. Thought the Chiefs could've given them a game but the Titans won't) I missed on the Chiefs.
Falcons 26-13 Rams
I was really impressed with the Falcons pass defense in this game. Felt like the refs were letting them play (can't help but wonder if non-calls become a controversy later on) and the Rams couldn't take advantage. I was surprised how tentative the Rams looked. I can understand some nerves, but outside of a coupla good drives late in the 1st half, they never got going on offense at all. The Falcons came out playing aggressive and were rewarded by the refs, good for them. The offense looked pretty good, the Rams pass rush was flying around but Ryan was able to make plays. The Rams have sucked for a long time, playoffs are for veterans, Rams just didn't have the moxie. (The Falcons can beat the Eagles, another team that just got good going against the defending conference champs (without their QB) and then another game in a dome...?). I missed on the Rams.
Bills 3-10 Jags
Yeah, this game was pretty much what I figured it would be: two terrible offenses against two good defenses. The Jags had one good drive, scored a TD and that was pretty much all it took. Otherwise, not much to report. The Bills hung around, played spunky, losing Tyrod with under a minute to go was not ideal (but didn't seem difference-making in the end), they capped off a good year under a new coach, got the fans back into it, showed some forward progress...now to get a new QB and start re-making the offense again...*sigh* As for the Jags, they've got a good pass rush, they're tough up the middle, but that offense is one dimensional and shallow at that. I know they already won a game at Pittsburgh this year, but I'll my eat my hat if they do it again. I was right on the Bills (+8.5).
Panthers 26-31 Saints
Yeah, this game was about what I thought it would be, too: the Saints score TD's, the Panthers get FG's. Saints (4 TD's, 1 FG), Panthers (4 FG's, 2 TD's). That simple: the Saints finish while the Panthers just get close. The difference between these two teams was minimal: Brees was more efficient and effective than Cam, the Saints D made 1 or 2 more stops than the Panthers D, otherwise pretty similar. The Saints added the defensive ROY (Marshon Lattimore) and the offensive ROY (Alvin Kamara) to a veteran squad with a great QB and they won their division for the first time in years. Now they're off to another dome. I was right on the Panthers (+6.5)
And the next batch of games:
Falcons (-2.5) @ Eagles
First thought is that the Falcons are playing as well as anyone right now, while the Eagles are playing wounded. The Falcons caught the Rams flatfooted and now they're catching the Eagles with a 2nd string QB. But that Eagles D is good, this game isn't over as some folks think. I think the Eagles will keep the Falcons from running up the score, if they can get Ryan to turn the ball over, the Eagles can definitely win. The Falcons are playing well but on the grass in freezing cold Philly, I think that Eagle D can get to him. I kinda like the Falcons to win, but I think they come from behind, I think this game is close and the Falcons win it late, I'll say Falcons 20-17). I'll take the Falcons (but just barely).
Titans @ Pats (-13)
Yeah, I don't give the Titans much of a chance in this one. I think Brady can play terrible and the Pats D can be atrocious and the Pats can still win easily and cover the spread. So I can't even imagine what the Titans would have to do--they'd have to start by playing their very best game of the year, but even that would just be a start. Mariota could be the wild card that Belichick can't account for, but how many times can Mariota make miracles happen? He'd probably need like 4 or 5 big plays at least to even be in the game in the 4th. We'll see, this Pats team is not exactly one of their best but they're still plenty good enough to take care of the Titans. If the Titans turn the ball over, this game will be over pronto. Thus game has 42-10 written all over it. Lot of points but I'll take the Pats.
Jags @ Steelers (-7.5)
The Jags pummeled the Steelers earlier this year taking advantage of an out-of-sorts offense that couldn't get a running game going. But the Steelers are prone to bad days, hard to imagine the Jags will catch them twice in the same season. The Jags do have a pass rush that could get Ben turned sidewise and keep Bell chip-blocking rather than moving the ball. But even if the Jags could slow down the Steelers, I don't see them scoring any points anyway. 7.5 seems like a lot but I think the Steelers are up at halftime and comfortably ride to a win, something like 28-13. I like the Steelers.
Saints @ Vikings (-4)
Ahhhh, the game of the week. Drew Brees has shown that he still has the goods and that offense is as scary as any in the league right now and the dome might seem like home to them. But the Vikings D has been, I think, the best of the year. If anyone could fustigate Brees, keep the checkdowns checked down and stop the big plays, its the Vikings. And on the other side, the Saints D is much improved but Minnesota's offense has been efficient and crisp and there are more vets on the Vikings side than the Saints. I'll take the Vikings to hold off the Saints late--seems like they have to win by more than a FG, don't they? I'll say Vikings 26-23. I like the Saints to cover but the Vikings to win.
Sunday, January 7, 2018
2017-18 NCAA Championship
Alabama (-4) - Georgia (over/under 45.5)
I looked back over their schedules to see if the conference crossover in the records gives anything to compare/contrast. Nope, they pretty much look the same: they both blew out Tennessee and Vandy (yeah, they were both terrible this year), both lost to Auburn (how does Auburn feel right now knowing they already thumped both of these potential 'champions'?). The only difference is Alabama kinda struggled with Mississippi State where as Georgia did not but I don't find that particularly meaningful.
Both teams played high profile early season matches: Alabama knocked Florida State's QB out for the year, which the Seminoles never came back from; and Georgia eked out a victory over Notre Dame, who I recall was actually the better team that night (surprised the Irish didn't pull it out). For the rest of the season, I was reasonably impressed with Notre Dame while Florida State just never got on track (though they did win a bowl). So in the non-conference, I thought Georgia had the slightly better showing.
Alabama fumbled with conference foes LSU and Texas A&M (two of Saban's personal betes noires) and couldn't move on Auburn but otherwise destroyed everyone they played in classic Crimson Tide fashion. Georgia, too, struggled against Auburn's D (the first time they played) but otherwise ripped through everyone they played better than I've ever really seen. Seems like Georgia is overrated year after year, but this year they were actually legit while Alabama is everyone's default #1 though this year they didn't really do much to earn it (one tough game, which they lost).
I was impressed that Georgia outlasted Oklahoma--especially in a shootout which I would've thought favored the Sooners. And I was impressed that Alabama so easily suffocated Clemson, who I thought would come in with more talent and plenty of confidence.
My first thought is that this is just Alabama being Alabama while Georgia has overachieved and Monday night will be a typical Tide coronation. But Georgia has now played two good games in a row against two different types of opponents while Alabama has only one straight win against a team not much like Georgia. Giving Nick Saban a month to plan for Clemson is one thing, but they won't have any advantage over the Bulldogs. I'm so far more impressed with Georgia getting revenge on Auburn and then going toe to toe with Oklahoma than I am with Alabama...not playing in the SEC championship and dressing down a team that had no problem with Auburn.
I'll take the points, I think Georgia moves the ball and controls the pace. I'll take Georgia and the under. Something like Georgia 24-20.
Saturday, January 6, 2018
2017-18 NFL (Wild Card Round)
Saturday
Titans @ Chiefs (-8.5)
(Hmmmm....worth noting Chiefs 30-6 Titans in the last game of the pre-season? Pre-season is generally meaningless but that last week kinda indicates what the teams were intending to be this season, right?)
The Chiefs began the season 5-0 including wins over Pats, Eagles, Rams, arguably the three best teams in the league. They looked monstrous, they were moving the ball in all directions, everyone was clicking, they suddenly looked dangerous, which the Chiefs have never looked before. They still have solid linebackers to crunch through a classic bend-don't-break defense. Felt like they were going to fly past everyone all year long. Then they had a tough loss to the Steelers, then a tough loss to the Raiders, both games they should've/could've won that got away from them. Rebounded with a W at the flailing Broncos. Felt like they were ready to clobber again but took an L at Dallas before going into a bye week. The Chiefs still looked better than everyone else at this point but had some wobble to them after a dominant start. Then came the low: 12-9 OT loss @ Giants, L to Buffalo, L to NYJ (capped off by a memorable tirade involving a frustrated defensive back and a referee's flag (dude, how was he not tossed for that?)). They looked bad all over the field, the magic that Smith had in the beginning of the year turned him to a pumpkin. the defense looked all out of shape, the frustration was palpable. But that Jets game shook 'em, I reckon. Since then they've finished with a 4-game winning streak over division and conference foes and scored plenty o' points while doing so. Not as flashy but every bit as effective as the early part of the season.
Break it down: Steelers D just flummoxes Reid (not a bad loss); Raiders and Jets, they actually played good but got overwhelmed by dumb mistakes and big plays (two dumb losses); Cowboys loss was a lackluster performance (one effort loss); but the Giants and Bills games are just terrible performances from top to bottom (two indefensible, inexplicable losses). I think the Chiefs are better for having gotten those games out of their system. I think they're ready to rock, I think everybody is shaky and still thinking the Chiefs are shaky when actually the Chiefs have pretty well worked out their offensive woes. The Chiefs scored at least 24 points in all but four games (all four of which they lost); they scored 30 points in two L's this year. This offense is sneaky good and that mid-season swoon may have taken the eyes off the team best positioned to come out of the AFC.
The Titans--hell I figured they drop out of the playoffs down the stretch, just didn't think they were good enough to hang. But here they are. Wins this year: Jags, Seahawks, Colts, Browns, Ravens, Bengals, Colts, Texans, Jags. (Meh) They were lucky to catch the Jags early when they weren't ready to kick ass and late when the Jags didn't need to win. Ravens and Seahawks were sloppy veteran teams that are watching the playoffs this year. And Colts, Bengals, Browns and Texans were among the worst in the league. Okay, I'll say it: this is a lucky 9 win team. The Losses: Raiders, Texans, Dolphins, Steelers, Cards, Niners, Rams. Okay, to their credit only one bad L (Dolphins). We all thought the Raiders would be good, so not a bad L in week one (before we knew they sucked). The Texans weren't good for much of the season but had a flash of greatness when Deshaun Watson appeared, credit the Titans to at least losing to a good QB. Steelers, Cards are solid veteran teams that know how thump punks like Tennessee, Niners had the Jimmy G phenomenon, and the Rams just punish bad defenses. So what can we say? They'll beat really bad teams but they won't beat a really good team. So are the Chiefs closer to the best they've looked this year (would easily stomp the Titans) or the worst they've looked this year (hey, Titans got a shot if the score is 9-6)? I'm guessing gooder than badder.
(-8.5) is kinda large for a playoff game but it looks to me like the Chiefs will score and the Titans won't. I expect something like Chiefs 30-6.
Falcons @ Rams (-6.5)
The Rams have sucked for quite some time but they were damn impressive this year. Three different stretches of their season: first 5 weeks (blew out the Colts, won two shootouts on the road; lost tough sludge fests to Redskins and the dreaded Seahawks); next 9 weeks (7-2, impressive thumpings of Jax, Giants, Cards twice, Texans, Saints, and a much needed beatdown of the dreaded Seahawks; also in the stretch they got shut down by the Vikings tough D and saw up close the last of the red hot Eagles offense, losses to among the best squads in the league); last two weeks they mailed it in, still got a W at Tennessee. These guys are good on both sides of the ball, deep, hungry, well-coached, and play an offense that is smart and aggressive. I like the way they run up the points on people, normally kind of a dick move but when teams have sucked for a long time, laying beatdowns on rivals is a wonderful thing, a clear sign of new beginning. Young teams need luck and avoiding Rodgers throughout the season and Wentz through the playoffs puts us on a path for the Rams to get their rematch with the Vikings, right?
Falcons flummoxed me all year long. Their offense was so fucking good last year, for them to drop to a barely-playoff team just because they lost their OC is absurd to me. But here we are, the defending champs are rolling into the NFC limping and backward. No reason for it, that offense is well-equipped to rock anyone's world, I just saw it last year! But I can't get excited about their chances outdoor, on grass against a young hungry Rams team.
(-6.5) seems about right. I like the Rams to control the game early and thoroughly but for the Falcons to score late to keep it feeling close. Rams 27-20. I'll take the Rams.
Sunday
Bills @ Jags (-8.5)
The Jags started the season with 3 good W's (Texans, Ravens, Steelers) and 3 tough L's (Titans, Jets, Rams). Then a 7-1 stretch: W's over Colts, Bengals, Chargers, Browns, Colts, Seahawks, Texans with a tough loss @Cards thrown in there. Then they got posterized by Jimmy G and mailed it in against the Titans. I dunno, man, not sure I'm too blown away by anything in there. Why are we so full of the Jags? That D is solid but are they really any good? Kudos for maximizing their opportunities but I don't really see a standout moment in there. They played a tomato can schedule.
The Bills started 5-2 (good win @Falcons, bad loss Bengals); then had a 3 game losing streak (a shit spiral on both sides of the ball, even leading to a QB controversy); then finished 4-2 (throw in on Tyrod, got the family feeling back, got swept by the Pats but got it done in the other games). This is a typical Bills team, good D, good special teams, bad OL, skimpy on skill positions, no offensive identity, slightly luckier than previous vintages but still very much a classic Bills squad. Gotta love the coaching staff's ability to recover from three straight bad losses and getting typically swept by the Pats.
I dunno, I guess the Jags are better but not vastly so and they're actually similar teams. I don't think either team scores a lot and if Shady McCoy doesn't play (didn't I hear broken ankle? Do we think he's gonna play?), the Bills might not score at all. I'll take the Jags to win, but I don't think they run up any points, I expect the Bills to hang around and at least kinda maybe be dangerous-ish. I'll say Jags 16-10.
Panthers @ Saints (-6.5)
All season long the Saints left me skeptical: when they crank up the offense, they can still hang with anyone in the league but they have a tendency to wait til the last minute to get their game on and that kinda scares me. Looking back over their schedule they had a strong Atlanta Braves-ish kinda year: handled the teams that aren't that good (Dolphins, Lions, Bears, non-Rodgers Packers, Bucs, Bills, Redskins, Jets, a sweep over the Panthers) but struggled against teams that are good (Vikings, Pats, Rams). They've already beat the Panthers twice this year, tough to win thrice.
The Panthers are the weirdest team of the year: W's against the Pats, Vikings, Packers (w/Rodgers). Then didn't even show up against the Saints (twice), Falcons or Bears (and barely squeaked by the Bills). If they show up I know they can beat the Saints--p\or anyone in the league--but I don't expect them to show up. (They are a great candidate to get hot and blast through January, but I wouldn't bet on it)
I'll take the Panthers to keep it close though I like the Saints to win. I'll say Saints 24-20.
Titans @ Chiefs (-8.5)
(Hmmmm....worth noting Chiefs 30-6 Titans in the last game of the pre-season? Pre-season is generally meaningless but that last week kinda indicates what the teams were intending to be this season, right?)
The Chiefs began the season 5-0 including wins over Pats, Eagles, Rams, arguably the three best teams in the league. They looked monstrous, they were moving the ball in all directions, everyone was clicking, they suddenly looked dangerous, which the Chiefs have never looked before. They still have solid linebackers to crunch through a classic bend-don't-break defense. Felt like they were going to fly past everyone all year long. Then they had a tough loss to the Steelers, then a tough loss to the Raiders, both games they should've/could've won that got away from them. Rebounded with a W at the flailing Broncos. Felt like they were ready to clobber again but took an L at Dallas before going into a bye week. The Chiefs still looked better than everyone else at this point but had some wobble to them after a dominant start. Then came the low: 12-9 OT loss @ Giants, L to Buffalo, L to NYJ (capped off by a memorable tirade involving a frustrated defensive back and a referee's flag (dude, how was he not tossed for that?)). They looked bad all over the field, the magic that Smith had in the beginning of the year turned him to a pumpkin. the defense looked all out of shape, the frustration was palpable. But that Jets game shook 'em, I reckon. Since then they've finished with a 4-game winning streak over division and conference foes and scored plenty o' points while doing so. Not as flashy but every bit as effective as the early part of the season.
Break it down: Steelers D just flummoxes Reid (not a bad loss); Raiders and Jets, they actually played good but got overwhelmed by dumb mistakes and big plays (two dumb losses); Cowboys loss was a lackluster performance (one effort loss); but the Giants and Bills games are just terrible performances from top to bottom (two indefensible, inexplicable losses). I think the Chiefs are better for having gotten those games out of their system. I think they're ready to rock, I think everybody is shaky and still thinking the Chiefs are shaky when actually the Chiefs have pretty well worked out their offensive woes. The Chiefs scored at least 24 points in all but four games (all four of which they lost); they scored 30 points in two L's this year. This offense is sneaky good and that mid-season swoon may have taken the eyes off the team best positioned to come out of the AFC.
The Titans--hell I figured they drop out of the playoffs down the stretch, just didn't think they were good enough to hang. But here they are. Wins this year: Jags, Seahawks, Colts, Browns, Ravens, Bengals, Colts, Texans, Jags. (Meh) They were lucky to catch the Jags early when they weren't ready to kick ass and late when the Jags didn't need to win. Ravens and Seahawks were sloppy veteran teams that are watching the playoffs this year. And Colts, Bengals, Browns and Texans were among the worst in the league. Okay, I'll say it: this is a lucky 9 win team. The Losses: Raiders, Texans, Dolphins, Steelers, Cards, Niners, Rams. Okay, to their credit only one bad L (Dolphins). We all thought the Raiders would be good, so not a bad L in week one (before we knew they sucked). The Texans weren't good for much of the season but had a flash of greatness when Deshaun Watson appeared, credit the Titans to at least losing to a good QB. Steelers, Cards are solid veteran teams that know how thump punks like Tennessee, Niners had the Jimmy G phenomenon, and the Rams just punish bad defenses. So what can we say? They'll beat really bad teams but they won't beat a really good team. So are the Chiefs closer to the best they've looked this year (would easily stomp the Titans) or the worst they've looked this year (hey, Titans got a shot if the score is 9-6)? I'm guessing gooder than badder.
(-8.5) is kinda large for a playoff game but it looks to me like the Chiefs will score and the Titans won't. I expect something like Chiefs 30-6.
Falcons @ Rams (-6.5)
The Rams have sucked for quite some time but they were damn impressive this year. Three different stretches of their season: first 5 weeks (blew out the Colts, won two shootouts on the road; lost tough sludge fests to Redskins and the dreaded Seahawks); next 9 weeks (7-2, impressive thumpings of Jax, Giants, Cards twice, Texans, Saints, and a much needed beatdown of the dreaded Seahawks; also in the stretch they got shut down by the Vikings tough D and saw up close the last of the red hot Eagles offense, losses to among the best squads in the league); last two weeks they mailed it in, still got a W at Tennessee. These guys are good on both sides of the ball, deep, hungry, well-coached, and play an offense that is smart and aggressive. I like the way they run up the points on people, normally kind of a dick move but when teams have sucked for a long time, laying beatdowns on rivals is a wonderful thing, a clear sign of new beginning. Young teams need luck and avoiding Rodgers throughout the season and Wentz through the playoffs puts us on a path for the Rams to get their rematch with the Vikings, right?
Falcons flummoxed me all year long. Their offense was so fucking good last year, for them to drop to a barely-playoff team just because they lost their OC is absurd to me. But here we are, the defending champs are rolling into the NFC limping and backward. No reason for it, that offense is well-equipped to rock anyone's world, I just saw it last year! But I can't get excited about their chances outdoor, on grass against a young hungry Rams team.
(-6.5) seems about right. I like the Rams to control the game early and thoroughly but for the Falcons to score late to keep it feeling close. Rams 27-20. I'll take the Rams.
Sunday
Bills @ Jags (-8.5)
The Jags started the season with 3 good W's (Texans, Ravens, Steelers) and 3 tough L's (Titans, Jets, Rams). Then a 7-1 stretch: W's over Colts, Bengals, Chargers, Browns, Colts, Seahawks, Texans with a tough loss @Cards thrown in there. Then they got posterized by Jimmy G and mailed it in against the Titans. I dunno, man, not sure I'm too blown away by anything in there. Why are we so full of the Jags? That D is solid but are they really any good? Kudos for maximizing their opportunities but I don't really see a standout moment in there. They played a tomato can schedule.
The Bills started 5-2 (good win @Falcons, bad loss Bengals); then had a 3 game losing streak (a shit spiral on both sides of the ball, even leading to a QB controversy); then finished 4-2 (throw in on Tyrod, got the family feeling back, got swept by the Pats but got it done in the other games). This is a typical Bills team, good D, good special teams, bad OL, skimpy on skill positions, no offensive identity, slightly luckier than previous vintages but still very much a classic Bills squad. Gotta love the coaching staff's ability to recover from three straight bad losses and getting typically swept by the Pats.
I dunno, I guess the Jags are better but not vastly so and they're actually similar teams. I don't think either team scores a lot and if Shady McCoy doesn't play (didn't I hear broken ankle? Do we think he's gonna play?), the Bills might not score at all. I'll take the Jags to win, but I don't think they run up any points, I expect the Bills to hang around and at least kinda maybe be dangerous-ish. I'll say Jags 16-10.
Panthers @ Saints (-6.5)
All season long the Saints left me skeptical: when they crank up the offense, they can still hang with anyone in the league but they have a tendency to wait til the last minute to get their game on and that kinda scares me. Looking back over their schedule they had a strong Atlanta Braves-ish kinda year: handled the teams that aren't that good (Dolphins, Lions, Bears, non-Rodgers Packers, Bucs, Bills, Redskins, Jets, a sweep over the Panthers) but struggled against teams that are good (Vikings, Pats, Rams). They've already beat the Panthers twice this year, tough to win thrice.
The Panthers are the weirdest team of the year: W's against the Pats, Vikings, Packers (w/Rodgers). Then didn't even show up against the Saints (twice), Falcons or Bears (and barely squeaked by the Bills). If they show up I know they can beat the Saints--p\or anyone in the league--but I don't expect them to show up. (They are a great candidate to get hot and blast through January, but I wouldn't bet on it)
I'll take the Panthers to keep it close though I like the Saints to win. I'll say Saints 24-20.
Thursday, January 4, 2018
2017-18 NCAA Bowls (Results)
Oregon (-7.5) 28-38 (25) Boise State (o/u 59)
I gotta go with Boise State and the under. Right on Boise State, wrong on the under.
North Texas (+7) 30-50 Troy (o/u 60.5)
North Texas (+7) 30-50 Troy (o/u 60.5)
I'll take Troy and the under. Right on Troy, wrong on the under.
Georgia State (+4.5) 27-17 Western Kentucky (o/u 50.5)
I'll take Georgia State to keep it close and the over. Right on Georgia State, wrong on the over.
Georgia State (+4.5) 27-17 Western Kentucky (o/u 50.5)
I'll take Georgia State to keep it close and the over. Right on Georgia State, wrong on the over.
Marshall (+5) 31-28 Colorado State (o/u 56)
I'll take Colorado State and the under. Wrong on Colorado State, wrong on the under.
Middle Tennessee (+3.5) 35-30 Arkansas State (o/u 60.5)
I'll take Arkansas State and the over. Wrong on Arkansas State, right on the over.
Akron (+17.5) 3-50 Florida Atlantic (o/u 62.5)
I'll go with Florida Atlantic and the over. Right on Florida Atlantic, wrong on the over.Akron (+17.5) 3-50 Florida Atlantic (o/u 62.5)
Louisiana Tech (+5.5) 51-10 SMU (o/u 70)
I'll take Louisiana Tech to play it close enough and I'll go with the under. Right on La. Tech, right on the under.
I'll take Temple and the under. Right on Temple, right on the under.
Alabama-Birmingham (+6.5) 6-41 Ohio (over/under 59)
I'll take UAB and the over. Wrong on UAB, wrong on the over.
Central Michigan (+3.5) 14-37 Wyoming (o/u 45.5)
Texas Tech (+2.5) 34-38 South Florida (o/u 66)
Texas (+2.5) 33-16 Missouri (o/u 60.5)
I'll take Texas and the under. Right on Texas, right on the under.
Arizona (-3) 35-38 Purdue (o/u 65.5)
I'll take Arizona and the under. Push on Arizona, wrong on the under.
(13) Stanford (+2.5) 37-39 (15) TCU (o/u 49)
Virginia (+1) 7-49 Navy (o/u 55)
I'll go with Virginia and the under. Wrong on Virginia, wrong on the under
(22) Virginia Tech (+4) 21-30 (19) Oklahoma State (o/u 63)
I'll take Oklahoma State and the over. Right on Oklahoma State, wrong on the over.
(8) Southern Cal (+7.5) 7-24 (5) Ohio State (o/u 64.5)
Kentucky (+7.5) 23-24 (21) Northwestern (o/u 51)
I'll take Northwestern and the over. Wrong on Northwestern, wrong on the over.
(24) North Carolina State (-6.5) 52-31 Arizona State (o/u 59.5)
(10) Miami (+6) 24-34 (6) Wisconsin (44.5)
I'll take Miami and the over. Wrong on Miami, right on the over.
(11) Washington (+2.5) 28-35 (9) Penn State (o/u 54.5)
I'll take Penn State and the under. Right on Penn State, wrong on the under.
Iowa State (+4) 21-20 (20) Memphis (o/u 67)
I'll take Memphis and the over. Wrong on Memphis, wrong on the over.
Louisville (-7) 27-31 (23) Mississippi State (o/u 63)
I'll take Mississippi State and the under. Right on Mississippi State, right on the under.
(12) Central Florida (+10) 34-27 (7) Auburn (o/u 67.5)
I'll take Central Florida to keep it close and the under. Right on Central Florida, right on the under.
(14) Notre Dame (+3) 21-17 (17) LSU (o/u 51.5)
I'll take Notre Dame and the under. Right on Notre Dame, right on the under.
Michigan (+7.5) 19-26 South Carolina (o/u 42.5)
I'll take Michigan to cover and the over. Right on Michigan, right on the over.
(3) Georgia (-2) 54-48 (2OT) (2) Oklahoma (o/u 60)
I'll go with Oklahoma and the under. Wrong on Oklahoma, wrong on the under.
(4) Alabama (-3) 24-6 (1) Clemson (o/u 47)
I'll take Clemson and the over. Wrong on Clemson, wrong on the over.
On picking the winners I was 22-15-2, not bad. But on picking o/u I was 16-23, so I did not have a good sense of predicting how the games would go. I'd like to think that if I was actually going to gamble (I do not gamble, nor do I (*) recommend it), my best bets would've been Ohio State, Notre Dame, North Carolina State and Boise State. And while I may have taken a flyer on Central Florida, I'm pretty sure I would've done the same with Clemson. So all in all I did okay picking winners but I was wrong on both semifinal games and not good at all on projecting points. This is why I don't gamble.
I watched NCAA football and paid attention to it more this year than ever before. I grew up in Kentucky, not strong college football country and I went to a fancy pants liberal arts college (where I developed a love of soccer). Until the BCS came along, I just thought college football was the most capricious corrupt thing I'd ever laid eyes on and since I never had a rooting interest, it was rather easy for me to ignore. But the BCS flattened out the playing field, made it more obvious who the good teams were, so as much maligned as it was, I thought the BCS was great for the game. Got me interested in it, anyway.
Now with the one-extra game championship, I gotta say the game is absolutely perfect right now. The fact that we'll have two SEC teams in the final probably speeds up the inevitable move to an 8 team playoffs (then a 16) but I'm good right here, right now. I'm telling ya: one extra game to decide the champion is ideal, once you start adding more and more teams, tournament-style football is just gonna be a grubby endeavor that will screw with how many games the best teams play, throw off the regular season and it will increasingly narrow--not widen!--the amount of teams that can compete. An 8-team tourney is a mirage, it's good right now.
(*) The trick to gambling is recognizing that the odds are virtually never in your favor, thus you should decline to gamble. Conversely, when you recognize that the odds are in your favor, you should gamble. It is not the better part of wisdom to think that though the odds aren't in your favor you can still win; the true wisdom is remembering that even though the odds are in your favor you can still lose.
Alabama-Birmingham (+6.5) 6-41 Ohio (over/under 59)
I'll take UAB and the over. Wrong on UAB, wrong on the over.
Central Michigan (+3.5) 14-37 Wyoming (o/u 45.5)
I'll take Central Michigan and the over. I was wrong on Central Michigan, right on the over.
Texas Tech (+2.5) 34-38 South Florida (o/u 66)
I'll take South Florida and the over. Right on South Florida, right on the over.
San Diego State (-6.5) 35-42 Army (o/u 46)
San Diego State (-6.5) 35-42 Army (o/u 46)
I'll take San Diego State and the under. Wrong on San Diego State, wrong on the under.
Appalachian State (+7) 34-0 Toledo (o/u 61.5)
Appalachian State (+7) 34-0 Toledo (o/u 61.5)
I'll go with App State and the under. Right on Appalachian State, right on the under.
Fresno State (+2.5) 33-27 Houston (o/u 49)
I'll go with Fresno State and the over. Right on Fresno State, right on the over.
Utah (+6.5) 30-14 West Virginia (o/u 56)
I'll take Utah to keep it close and the over. Right on Utah, wrong on the over.
Duke (-5.5) 36-14 Northern Illinois (o/u 47.5)
I like Northern Illinois and the under. Wrong on Northern Illinois, wrong on the under.
Kansas State (-2.5) 35-17 UCLA (o/u 64.5)
I'll go with Kansas State and the over. Right on Kansas State, wrong on the over.
Southern Mississippi (+16.5) 42-13 Florida State (o/u 49)
Duke (-5.5) 36-14 Northern Illinois (o/u 47.5)
I like Northern Illinois and the under. Wrong on Northern Illinois, wrong on the under.
Kansas State (-2.5) 35-17 UCLA (o/u 64.5)
I'll go with Kansas State and the over. Right on Kansas State, wrong on the over.
Southern Mississippi (+16.5) 42-13 Florida State (o/u 49)
I'll take Southern Mississippi (to win straight up) and the over. Wrong on Southern Mississippi, right on the over.
Iowa (-2.5) 27-20 Boston College (o/u 45.5)
I'll go with Iowa and the under. Right on Iowa, wrong on the under.Iowa (-2.5) 27-20 Boston College (o/u 45.5)
Texas (+2.5) 33-16 Missouri (o/u 60.5)
I'll take Texas and the under. Right on Texas, right on the under.
Arizona (-3) 35-38 Purdue (o/u 65.5)
I'll take Arizona and the under. Push on Arizona, wrong on the under.
(13) Stanford (+2.5) 37-39 (15) TCU (o/u 49)
I'll take TCU and the over. Wrong on TCU, right on the over.
(18) Washington State (-1) 17-42 (16) Michigan State (o/u 46)
I'll take Washington State and the under. Wrong on Washington State, wrong on the under.
Virginia (+1) 7-49 Navy (o/u 55)
I'll go with Virginia and the under. Wrong on Virginia, wrong on the under
(22) Virginia Tech (+4) 21-30 (19) Oklahoma State (o/u 63)
I'll take Oklahoma State and the over. Right on Oklahoma State, wrong on the over.
(8) Southern Cal (+7.5) 7-24 (5) Ohio State (o/u 64.5)
I'll go with Ohio State and the under. Right on Ohio State, right on the under.
I'll take Northwestern and the over. Wrong on Northwestern, wrong on the over.
(24) North Carolina State (-6.5) 52-31 Arizona State (o/u 59.5)
I've got to take North Carolina State and the under. Right on North Carolina State, wrong on the under.
Wake Forest (-3) 55-52 Texas A&M (o/u 64.5)
Wake Forest (-3) 55-52 Texas A&M (o/u 64.5)
I like Wake to get it done and the under. Push on Wake Forest, wrong on the under.
Utah State (+4) 20-26 (OT) New Mexico State (o/u 61.5)
I'll take New Mexico State and the over. Right on New Mexico State, wrong on the over.Utah State (+4) 20-26 (OT) New Mexico State (o/u 61.5)
(10) Miami (+6) 24-34 (6) Wisconsin (44.5)
I'll take Miami and the over. Wrong on Miami, right on the over.
(11) Washington (+2.5) 28-35 (9) Penn State (o/u 54.5)
I'll take Penn State and the under. Right on Penn State, wrong on the under.
Iowa State (+4) 21-20 (20) Memphis (o/u 67)
I'll take Memphis and the over. Wrong on Memphis, wrong on the over.
Louisville (-7) 27-31 (23) Mississippi State (o/u 63)
I'll take Mississippi State and the under. Right on Mississippi State, right on the under.
(12) Central Florida (+10) 34-27 (7) Auburn (o/u 67.5)
I'll take Central Florida to keep it close and the under. Right on Central Florida, right on the under.
(14) Notre Dame (+3) 21-17 (17) LSU (o/u 51.5)
I'll take Notre Dame and the under. Right on Notre Dame, right on the under.
Michigan (+7.5) 19-26 South Carolina (o/u 42.5)
I'll take Michigan to cover and the over. Right on Michigan, right on the over.
(3) Georgia (-2) 54-48 (2OT) (2) Oklahoma (o/u 60)
I'll go with Oklahoma and the under. Wrong on Oklahoma, wrong on the under.
(4) Alabama (-3) 24-6 (1) Clemson (o/u 47)
I'll take Clemson and the over. Wrong on Clemson, wrong on the over.
On picking the winners I was 22-15-2, not bad. But on picking o/u I was 16-23, so I did not have a good sense of predicting how the games would go. I'd like to think that if I was actually going to gamble (I do not gamble, nor do I (*) recommend it), my best bets would've been Ohio State, Notre Dame, North Carolina State and Boise State. And while I may have taken a flyer on Central Florida, I'm pretty sure I would've done the same with Clemson. So all in all I did okay picking winners but I was wrong on both semifinal games and not good at all on projecting points. This is why I don't gamble.
I watched NCAA football and paid attention to it more this year than ever before. I grew up in Kentucky, not strong college football country and I went to a fancy pants liberal arts college (where I developed a love of soccer). Until the BCS came along, I just thought college football was the most capricious corrupt thing I'd ever laid eyes on and since I never had a rooting interest, it was rather easy for me to ignore. But the BCS flattened out the playing field, made it more obvious who the good teams were, so as much maligned as it was, I thought the BCS was great for the game. Got me interested in it, anyway.
Now with the one-extra game championship, I gotta say the game is absolutely perfect right now. The fact that we'll have two SEC teams in the final probably speeds up the inevitable move to an 8 team playoffs (then a 16) but I'm good right here, right now. I'm telling ya: one extra game to decide the champion is ideal, once you start adding more and more teams, tournament-style football is just gonna be a grubby endeavor that will screw with how many games the best teams play, throw off the regular season and it will increasingly narrow--not widen!--the amount of teams that can compete. An 8-team tourney is a mirage, it's good right now.
(*) The trick to gambling is recognizing that the odds are virtually never in your favor, thus you should decline to gamble. Conversely, when you recognize that the odds are in your favor, you should gamble. It is not the better part of wisdom to think that though the odds aren't in your favor you can still win; the true wisdom is remembering that even though the odds are in your favor you can still lose.
2017-18 NFL (Week 17)
Games I watched (some of):
Browns 24-28 Steelers
The Browns sorta outplayed the Steelers in the sense that you could tell the Browns actually wanted to win whereas the Steelers didn't really seem to care. The Browns to their credit never felt out of the game. Until they were. The Browns are just a mess, they'll still be a mess next year. I think its weird to keep the coach that just does not get W's but I guess there's a benefit to waiting one more year to find a coach, especially now that they've got a new GM. One more year, another top five pick and then pump in free agent dollars in 2019...yeah, sure that's a plan. Steelers are the Steelers, they'll always be the Steelers: somewhere but first and tenth year after year.
Bengals 31-27 Ravens
Like their spirit animal, the Arizona Cardinals, the Bengals knew coming in that they had a shot to drop an embarrassing home loss on a dreaded division foe. Bengals jumped out to an early lead, held a good lead at halftime. Joe Flacco was his usual soft shelled self early on. But in the 4th quarter the Ravens got just hot enough to take back the lead. And Andy Dalton came back and won it! Shook loose over the middle, evaded tacklers, went all the way in on 4th and 200. Unbelievable. Didn't see that coming in a million years! Great score! Great drama! Great for the Buffalo Bills fans!...
.Meanwhile in Cincinnati, they'll be searching for a coach, a QB (AJ McCarron, anyone?), OL, maybe WR, maybe GM, not feeling like they're well-positioned right now. And the Ravens just needed a W to go the playoffs even though they've been sloppy and sorry all year long. And they blew it. And Buffalo's going instead. Don't know where the Ravens go from here, like the Arizona Cardinals they've been trying to trot out the same team year after year and it feels like that has finally caught up with them.
Other results:
Redskins 10-18 Giants
Yeah, Giants winning the last game for no reason at all and the Skins losing for no reason at all somehow makes perfect sense. Both teams will probably be drastically different next year. I thought the Giants would suck, thought they (and the Cowboys) overachieved last year and would probably suck this year. I'd suggest going for a defensive minded coach, bring back Eli for one more year and try to win with the D, they could be good again next year. But I thought the Skins (and the Eagles) would leap frog them this year and that didn't quite happen; the Skins have moments of looking pretty good but not often enough to ever think they were actually good. I'm sure they'll have a new QB, probably new skill guys, maybe a new Coach. Seems like the Skins are headed for perennial 8-8 life.
Jets 6-26 Pats
The Pats were gonna win this game 99 times out of 100 no matter what, so the fact that the Pats actually needed the game for the top seed and the Jets are a flaming mess didn't really even matter that much. I thought the Jets would be monumentally bad this year so actually I was pretty impressed with the Jets, much scrappier team than I would've thought possible. And the Pats seem kinda rickety, kinda just better than everyone else by inertia rather than actual play on the field, still totally possible to win it all. As long as Belichik and Brady come back you know they'll be good.
Bears 10-23 Vikings
This game was a microcosm of the whole season in the AFC North: Vikings have been steadily building for years, finally felt like they'd have a QB (didn't think it'd be Case Keenum, but okay), dominant on both lines, ready to be an in the trenches squad for the next few years, and with no Aaron Rodgers around, it feels like their year to steal one. The Bears still need a coach, an identity, depth, and a system to bring out the best in their QB of the future, still need all that stuff which is why they sucked; but I kinda like Trubisky and Tarik Cohen, the pass rush was pretty good, they got stuff to work with, they can build into something good again, but it wasn't gonna happen this year.
Packers 11-35 Lions
Man, when the wind goes out of a team's sails it hits mf'ing hard. The Packers were my pick to come out of the NFC and beat the Pats...once Rodgers went down that became clearly not gonna happen. Can't remember the last time a single star raised (or lowered) a team this much. (*) Lions had moments of good offense and good defense but not enough to win many games. So laying a beatdown on a division foe just fucking feels good when you know you're not going to the playoffs, had a Longest Yard kinda to feel to it. I'm not an NFL roster guru, but I can imagine the Lions being totally different next year. The Packers will have a healthy Aaron Rodgers which makes them likely to make the conference finals at least.
Texans 13-22 Colts
Texans are so ready to get this year finished and move on to next year. They lost their two defensive standouts and their all world rookie QB, they already have enough in house to be really good soon. There's talk of moving on from Coach O'Brien, but I'm not sure that's necessary, I think continuity may be better than trying to hit a home run in the coaching market. I thought the Colts were going to be hideous this year and while they were, I thought they'd be worse, so I was reasonably impressed by them, kinda liked Brissett (wonder where he'll be backing up next year). Sometimes guys like Pagano got too much credit when frankly they really just rode the QB into the playoffs, then they take the blame even though they kept things from really going off the track. I'm not surprised Pagano is out but I'm not sure any of this is his fault, sometimes circumstances overwhelm the best of them. I'm not saying Pagano is the best but I think he probably endured too much blame.
Cowboys 6-0 Eagles
Hmmm, looks like the Eagles couldn't get anything going against an out-of-it floundering Cowboys D. I was kinda impressed with Foles when he came off the bench but two games in a row with no upfield push is troubling heading into the playoffs. They'll get a week to work it out. Man, I thought the Cowboys (like the Giants) overachieved last year and would get usurped by the Eagles (and Redskins). Ehhh, I was half right. But the friggin' Cowboys just needed a win at home against a Seahawks team that is losing steam to get a good shot at 10-6 and a playoff spot...and they couldn't do it...all they had to do was handoff to Zeke, why didn't they just hand off to Zeke? *head scratch* And so now they're out of it and have nothing to play for, even beating Philly doesn't mean anything at all...and they get it done. wtf, man? I kinda have no idea what the Cowboys will be next year: Dak and Zeke, Coach Clapper, what else? I dunno. They'll think of something, they got lotsa money. The Eagles are on the rise but losing a big opportunity when Wentz went down (a la the Raiders last year with Carr's broken leg). But they should still be good next year (of course, that's what we thought of the Raiders this year...). They've got a good D and a home playoff game, they might be able to shut somebody down (I think they can beat the Panthers or the Falcons, tough but not impossible). But they're certainly a shell of themselves going forward.
Niners 34-13 Rams
Dude, if I was a Niner fan I would be plenty tired of Jimmy G love by now. There's no need to win these games, no need to risk losing the G, I have seen enough to know that he should've been packed in bubble wrap 3 weeks ago and not unpacked til July. As for the late season wins, they're impressive but who's excited by that anyway? When a fan base knows it has to tank, it swallows hard and endures. And when a fanbase knows its got its QB of the future (the Rodgers Avenger), they know better than to take the toy out of its box too early. He wasn't hurt so I guess my words are all for naught but as good as Jimmy G was the last few weeks, I would've sacrificed a little of that to try and get a better draft pick and more Jimmy G next year. But it all worked out. Oh well, all in good fun. The Rams were just taking the week off anyway, they're on course for the Vikings, no? They should be good next year, Niners will be much improved (Seahawks and Cards taking a step back?).
Raiders 10-30 Chargers
How the Chargers missed the post-season I'll never know. Seems to me like they were better than the Bills in pretty much every way but somehow Bills win the tiebreak. All right, I'll take it. But as a football fan, Chargers would've been a better match for Jacksonville, man I've been kinda wanting that match. Instead of an explosive offense we get Buffalo instead. Okay. No idea what the Chargers or Raiders will be like next year. Both teams were so wildly inconsistent all year, alternately looking good and hideous. The Raiders are getting a new coach (not sure I thought the coach was the problem there), perhaps the new boss (same as the old boss, it just so happens) can bring a fine family feeling with him, maybe all the Raiders need is an attitude adjustment. The Chargers need a K, keep QB upright and depth on both sides. I have no idea if they'll have any of that next year. But they're both done this year.
Chiefs 27-24 Broncos
Division games. This could've gone any number of ways. It went like this: visiting Chiefs, instead of gacking up the playoffs suddenly look resurgent, while the home team Broncos have a good D, plenty of vets, no QB or offensive identity but nothing to lose. Chiefs get up big early, then once home team has nothing to play for, they rally, make it look close. I think the Chiefs are better than the worst they've been this year but they're not as good as the best they've been this year. So are they back on the rise or have they just played their way back to slightly above average? I think they'll beat lesser opponents, we'll see if they get any in the post-season (oh yeah, the Titans, there you go). The Broncos are keeping the coach and the GM, I believe. Gotta have a QB, they gotta sign 2 QBs and draft one this off-season, keep the D together, get a QB, that's their mission for new. No idea what the Chiefs will be next year. Might be great, might be the worst of all time, either way.
Jags 10-15 Titans
Ugh! The Titans trying their hardest is already hard enough watch but watching the Jags not trying at all is just about impossible. The Jags should have a scary defense for years to come, good running game, good OL, I don't dislike Bortles, I think he can be good enough, Jax has been rebuilding for a long time but that D is good enough to keep them around for a while. The Titans are just young and sloppily managed (hmmm, Josh McDaniels, anyone?). I think they can be good they just probably won't be. Mariota will have games where he looks like Pete Maravich in his prime and days where he can't make a play to save his life. That's just what the Titans are (I give them no shot against the Chiefs).
Saints 24-31 Bucs
Saints play kinda fast and loose, when the defense makes plays they can be super dangerous and when the offense is rolling they can bury teams quickly. But when their offense sputters, they can still suck pretty bad out there. And their propensity to wait til the end of the game to come back in the 2-minute offense is foolhardy come post-season. Foolhardy! So while the Saints are capable of beating anyone, they're capable of losing to anyone too. If Drew Brees is back then the Saints will still be the same next year. As for the Bucs, who knows? Think they're keeping the coach and QB, I dunno, maybe that's the right thing to do. Everybody just keeps waiting year after year for the Bucs to be awesome, maybe next year's the year.
Bills 22-16 Dolphins
I just kept waiting for the Bills to give up the game, I wasn't expecting a good performance at all, so even though they were up late I still expected them to lose. But the Dolphins never really got going this year, this team was weird. It feels like they have everything they need to be really really good and somehow they're not even sniffing the playoffs. I don't get this team, they'll be getting QB Tannehill back next year, maybe that will rejuvenate them. And the Bills are the same every year. This year they were just a little more 8-8 than in other years which is why they were 9-7. (Andy Dalton as their QB next year? He's already more of a Buffalo hero than anyone since Thurman Thomas left town). I like the vibe the coach has going, he's made them a swift smart defense, a breath of fresh air after Rex's odor. As for next year: well...8-8, right?
Cards 26-24 Seahawks
Good win for the Cards. Winning a road division game against a team that's been kicking your ass for a decade must feel pretty damn good. Too bad Coach Arians got the axe, that's a perfect example of the kind of game Arians can win (too bad they played more of the other kind of games this year). But the Cards were just not as good as they thought they'd be this year and it basically screwed their whole season. They played hard and had moments this year but they just didn't have the sustain to last with good teams. End of an era there, QB Palmer is officially gone now too. They need a coach and 2 QBs. Feels like the Seahawk D is only gonna get worse next year, Russell Wilson will have to do even more all by himself. Might be a good strategy for them. (Niners and Rams are coming for these two)
Panthers 10-22 Falcons
Falcons needed it more I guess. Still don't understand how awful the Panther offense can be sometimes, just awful. I thought the Falcons this year would be murder at home (nope), and cruise into the playoffs. They kinda mostly sputtered through each game this year, I can't imagine how that offense from last year can look like that offense from this year. But even bad as they been, they're still in the hunt, this victory gets them the #6 seed in the NFC. And the Panthers are #5, though they could've jumped up to #4 and taken the Saints match at home instead of on the road. Weird, man, the Panthers are just weird. Falcons too. Both have good talent and in such a screwy year can still win the Super Bowl. I doubt it but each of them could get hot. Seems like both these teams will be the same next year, maybe a little better?
(*) The difference between Packers with/without Rodger is similar to the difference between seeing 2001: A Space Odyssey in 70mm print on a giant screen with an amazing sound system and seeing it on a beat up VHS tape on an old 20-inch tv. it's kinda the same but not at all the same.
Browns 24-28 Steelers
The Browns sorta outplayed the Steelers in the sense that you could tell the Browns actually wanted to win whereas the Steelers didn't really seem to care. The Browns to their credit never felt out of the game. Until they were. The Browns are just a mess, they'll still be a mess next year. I think its weird to keep the coach that just does not get W's but I guess there's a benefit to waiting one more year to find a coach, especially now that they've got a new GM. One more year, another top five pick and then pump in free agent dollars in 2019...yeah, sure that's a plan. Steelers are the Steelers, they'll always be the Steelers: somewhere but first and tenth year after year.
Bengals 31-27 Ravens
Like their spirit animal, the Arizona Cardinals, the Bengals knew coming in that they had a shot to drop an embarrassing home loss on a dreaded division foe. Bengals jumped out to an early lead, held a good lead at halftime. Joe Flacco was his usual soft shelled self early on. But in the 4th quarter the Ravens got just hot enough to take back the lead. And Andy Dalton came back and won it! Shook loose over the middle, evaded tacklers, went all the way in on 4th and 200. Unbelievable. Didn't see that coming in a million years! Great score! Great drama! Great for the Buffalo Bills fans!...
.Meanwhile in Cincinnati, they'll be searching for a coach, a QB (AJ McCarron, anyone?), OL, maybe WR, maybe GM, not feeling like they're well-positioned right now. And the Ravens just needed a W to go the playoffs even though they've been sloppy and sorry all year long. And they blew it. And Buffalo's going instead. Don't know where the Ravens go from here, like the Arizona Cardinals they've been trying to trot out the same team year after year and it feels like that has finally caught up with them.
Other results:
Redskins 10-18 Giants
Yeah, Giants winning the last game for no reason at all and the Skins losing for no reason at all somehow makes perfect sense. Both teams will probably be drastically different next year. I thought the Giants would suck, thought they (and the Cowboys) overachieved last year and would probably suck this year. I'd suggest going for a defensive minded coach, bring back Eli for one more year and try to win with the D, they could be good again next year. But I thought the Skins (and the Eagles) would leap frog them this year and that didn't quite happen; the Skins have moments of looking pretty good but not often enough to ever think they were actually good. I'm sure they'll have a new QB, probably new skill guys, maybe a new Coach. Seems like the Skins are headed for perennial 8-8 life.
Jets 6-26 Pats
The Pats were gonna win this game 99 times out of 100 no matter what, so the fact that the Pats actually needed the game for the top seed and the Jets are a flaming mess didn't really even matter that much. I thought the Jets would be monumentally bad this year so actually I was pretty impressed with the Jets, much scrappier team than I would've thought possible. And the Pats seem kinda rickety, kinda just better than everyone else by inertia rather than actual play on the field, still totally possible to win it all. As long as Belichik and Brady come back you know they'll be good.
Bears 10-23 Vikings
This game was a microcosm of the whole season in the AFC North: Vikings have been steadily building for years, finally felt like they'd have a QB (didn't think it'd be Case Keenum, but okay), dominant on both lines, ready to be an in the trenches squad for the next few years, and with no Aaron Rodgers around, it feels like their year to steal one. The Bears still need a coach, an identity, depth, and a system to bring out the best in their QB of the future, still need all that stuff which is why they sucked; but I kinda like Trubisky and Tarik Cohen, the pass rush was pretty good, they got stuff to work with, they can build into something good again, but it wasn't gonna happen this year.
Packers 11-35 Lions
Man, when the wind goes out of a team's sails it hits mf'ing hard. The Packers were my pick to come out of the NFC and beat the Pats...once Rodgers went down that became clearly not gonna happen. Can't remember the last time a single star raised (or lowered) a team this much. (*) Lions had moments of good offense and good defense but not enough to win many games. So laying a beatdown on a division foe just fucking feels good when you know you're not going to the playoffs, had a Longest Yard kinda to feel to it. I'm not an NFL roster guru, but I can imagine the Lions being totally different next year. The Packers will have a healthy Aaron Rodgers which makes them likely to make the conference finals at least.
Texans 13-22 Colts
Texans are so ready to get this year finished and move on to next year. They lost their two defensive standouts and their all world rookie QB, they already have enough in house to be really good soon. There's talk of moving on from Coach O'Brien, but I'm not sure that's necessary, I think continuity may be better than trying to hit a home run in the coaching market. I thought the Colts were going to be hideous this year and while they were, I thought they'd be worse, so I was reasonably impressed by them, kinda liked Brissett (wonder where he'll be backing up next year). Sometimes guys like Pagano got too much credit when frankly they really just rode the QB into the playoffs, then they take the blame even though they kept things from really going off the track. I'm not surprised Pagano is out but I'm not sure any of this is his fault, sometimes circumstances overwhelm the best of them. I'm not saying Pagano is the best but I think he probably endured too much blame.
Cowboys 6-0 Eagles
Hmmm, looks like the Eagles couldn't get anything going against an out-of-it floundering Cowboys D. I was kinda impressed with Foles when he came off the bench but two games in a row with no upfield push is troubling heading into the playoffs. They'll get a week to work it out. Man, I thought the Cowboys (like the Giants) overachieved last year and would get usurped by the Eagles (and Redskins). Ehhh, I was half right. But the friggin' Cowboys just needed a win at home against a Seahawks team that is losing steam to get a good shot at 10-6 and a playoff spot...and they couldn't do it...all they had to do was handoff to Zeke, why didn't they just hand off to Zeke? *head scratch* And so now they're out of it and have nothing to play for, even beating Philly doesn't mean anything at all...and they get it done. wtf, man? I kinda have no idea what the Cowboys will be next year: Dak and Zeke, Coach Clapper, what else? I dunno. They'll think of something, they got lotsa money. The Eagles are on the rise but losing a big opportunity when Wentz went down (a la the Raiders last year with Carr's broken leg). But they should still be good next year (of course, that's what we thought of the Raiders this year...). They've got a good D and a home playoff game, they might be able to shut somebody down (I think they can beat the Panthers or the Falcons, tough but not impossible). But they're certainly a shell of themselves going forward.
Niners 34-13 Rams
Dude, if I was a Niner fan I would be plenty tired of Jimmy G love by now. There's no need to win these games, no need to risk losing the G, I have seen enough to know that he should've been packed in bubble wrap 3 weeks ago and not unpacked til July. As for the late season wins, they're impressive but who's excited by that anyway? When a fan base knows it has to tank, it swallows hard and endures. And when a fanbase knows its got its QB of the future (the Rodgers Avenger), they know better than to take the toy out of its box too early. He wasn't hurt so I guess my words are all for naught but as good as Jimmy G was the last few weeks, I would've sacrificed a little of that to try and get a better draft pick and more Jimmy G next year. But it all worked out. Oh well, all in good fun. The Rams were just taking the week off anyway, they're on course for the Vikings, no? They should be good next year, Niners will be much improved (Seahawks and Cards taking a step back?).
Raiders 10-30 Chargers
How the Chargers missed the post-season I'll never know. Seems to me like they were better than the Bills in pretty much every way but somehow Bills win the tiebreak. All right, I'll take it. But as a football fan, Chargers would've been a better match for Jacksonville, man I've been kinda wanting that match. Instead of an explosive offense we get Buffalo instead. Okay. No idea what the Chargers or Raiders will be like next year. Both teams were so wildly inconsistent all year, alternately looking good and hideous. The Raiders are getting a new coach (not sure I thought the coach was the problem there), perhaps the new boss (same as the old boss, it just so happens) can bring a fine family feeling with him, maybe all the Raiders need is an attitude adjustment. The Chargers need a K, keep QB upright and depth on both sides. I have no idea if they'll have any of that next year. But they're both done this year.
Chiefs 27-24 Broncos
Division games. This could've gone any number of ways. It went like this: visiting Chiefs, instead of gacking up the playoffs suddenly look resurgent, while the home team Broncos have a good D, plenty of vets, no QB or offensive identity but nothing to lose. Chiefs get up big early, then once home team has nothing to play for, they rally, make it look close. I think the Chiefs are better than the worst they've been this year but they're not as good as the best they've been this year. So are they back on the rise or have they just played their way back to slightly above average? I think they'll beat lesser opponents, we'll see if they get any in the post-season (oh yeah, the Titans, there you go). The Broncos are keeping the coach and the GM, I believe. Gotta have a QB, they gotta sign 2 QBs and draft one this off-season, keep the D together, get a QB, that's their mission for new. No idea what the Chiefs will be next year. Might be great, might be the worst of all time, either way.
Jags 10-15 Titans
Ugh! The Titans trying their hardest is already hard enough watch but watching the Jags not trying at all is just about impossible. The Jags should have a scary defense for years to come, good running game, good OL, I don't dislike Bortles, I think he can be good enough, Jax has been rebuilding for a long time but that D is good enough to keep them around for a while. The Titans are just young and sloppily managed (hmmm, Josh McDaniels, anyone?). I think they can be good they just probably won't be. Mariota will have games where he looks like Pete Maravich in his prime and days where he can't make a play to save his life. That's just what the Titans are (I give them no shot against the Chiefs).
Saints 24-31 Bucs
Saints play kinda fast and loose, when the defense makes plays they can be super dangerous and when the offense is rolling they can bury teams quickly. But when their offense sputters, they can still suck pretty bad out there. And their propensity to wait til the end of the game to come back in the 2-minute offense is foolhardy come post-season. Foolhardy! So while the Saints are capable of beating anyone, they're capable of losing to anyone too. If Drew Brees is back then the Saints will still be the same next year. As for the Bucs, who knows? Think they're keeping the coach and QB, I dunno, maybe that's the right thing to do. Everybody just keeps waiting year after year for the Bucs to be awesome, maybe next year's the year.
Bills 22-16 Dolphins
I just kept waiting for the Bills to give up the game, I wasn't expecting a good performance at all, so even though they were up late I still expected them to lose. But the Dolphins never really got going this year, this team was weird. It feels like they have everything they need to be really really good and somehow they're not even sniffing the playoffs. I don't get this team, they'll be getting QB Tannehill back next year, maybe that will rejuvenate them. And the Bills are the same every year. This year they were just a little more 8-8 than in other years which is why they were 9-7. (Andy Dalton as their QB next year? He's already more of a Buffalo hero than anyone since Thurman Thomas left town). I like the vibe the coach has going, he's made them a swift smart defense, a breath of fresh air after Rex's odor. As for next year: well...8-8, right?
Cards 26-24 Seahawks
Good win for the Cards. Winning a road division game against a team that's been kicking your ass for a decade must feel pretty damn good. Too bad Coach Arians got the axe, that's a perfect example of the kind of game Arians can win (too bad they played more of the other kind of games this year). But the Cards were just not as good as they thought they'd be this year and it basically screwed their whole season. They played hard and had moments this year but they just didn't have the sustain to last with good teams. End of an era there, QB Palmer is officially gone now too. They need a coach and 2 QBs. Feels like the Seahawk D is only gonna get worse next year, Russell Wilson will have to do even more all by himself. Might be a good strategy for them. (Niners and Rams are coming for these two)
Panthers 10-22 Falcons
Falcons needed it more I guess. Still don't understand how awful the Panther offense can be sometimes, just awful. I thought the Falcons this year would be murder at home (nope), and cruise into the playoffs. They kinda mostly sputtered through each game this year, I can't imagine how that offense from last year can look like that offense from this year. But even bad as they been, they're still in the hunt, this victory gets them the #6 seed in the NFC. And the Panthers are #5, though they could've jumped up to #4 and taken the Saints match at home instead of on the road. Weird, man, the Panthers are just weird. Falcons too. Both have good talent and in such a screwy year can still win the Super Bowl. I doubt it but each of them could get hot. Seems like both these teams will be the same next year, maybe a little better?
(*) The difference between Packers with/without Rodger is similar to the difference between seeing 2001: A Space Odyssey in 70mm print on a giant screen with an amazing sound system and seeing it on a beat up VHS tape on an old 20-inch tv. it's kinda the same but not at all the same.
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