2021 PGA Championship (Ol' Phil Mickelson)

My favorite part of Phil Mickelson's win at the PGA this weekend was the fact that absolutely no one saw it coming. He played well at the Masters, was a fun watch, and when he was really great on Thursday, I was hopeful. When he was great again on Friday, I was slightly more hopeful. He was good on Saturday, the leader going into Sunday, I was still hopeful. But I never felt anything more than just vaguely hopeful until the back nine on Sunday when Koepka and Oosthuizen just kinda melted away. 

Great win, fun watch. On the one hand it was a rather muted Major, on the other hand we got to watch Phil for 72 holes, which hasn't happened in a while. Nice. 

In the course of recalling that the oldest previous PGA championship winner was Old Tom Morris, Jim Nance said it: "Old Phil". I dunno if Phil liked it but I dug it and I guarantee it's gonna stick. I remember Phil as a young fan favorite that couldn't win the big one and now to crown him the oldest Major champion of all time caps the career of the greatest golfer of his generation....right? (*) 

(*) Nah, Tiger is still the man even with all his weird ups and downs. But Phil is a close--and getting closer--second place.

2020-21 NBA Playoffs (Round One after two games)

Sixers 2-0 Wizards. Yeah, not a shock. The Wizards do have offensive firepower but it ain't gonna be enough to win more than maybe one game. I like the Wizards to come up big in Game Three but that'll probably be it. I'll stick with Sixers in 5. 

Nets 2-0 Celtics. Yeah, the Celtics are spent. They don't even have a shot at taking a single game--they already played about as well as they can in Game One and got thoroughly smoked, so what else is there for them to do? They should just forfeit these next two games and move on--I don't see any reason to even play these games (except for contractual obligation obviously). I'll stick with Nets in 4. 

Bucks 2-0 Heat. The Heat are not as good as last year, not sure why, they're a nice team but no one on that roster has taken a step forward this season and they're trying to get too many minutes out of Ariza and Iguodala. The Bucks are looking pretty good, they have shored up their deficiencies from last year and have their sights on the Nets already, I'd say. I like the Heat to ball out hard in Game Three, but I like the Bucks to take Game Four in Miami and wrap it up at home. I'll stick with Bucks in 5.

Knicks 1-1 Hawks. Dog fight! Love it!  Game Two was a weird one: Knicks kinda sucked at everything, Julius Randle is not getting good looks, felt like the Hawks were rolling...and the Knicks won anyway. Yeah, that's what kind of series this is going to be: giant momentum swings...for no reason at all. Neither of these teams suck but neither of them are flat out winners, either, so each game--each quarter!--will flop around like this. I'd be kinda shocked if this doesn't go seven games. The longer it takes Randle to get going, the better chance the Hawks have of sneaking this in 6, but Randle won't stay silent forever. I'll stick Knicks in 7. 

Jazz 1-1 Grizzlies. I admired the Grizzlies spunk in Game One and they are clearly not afraid. I like Ja Morant, he can get to wherever he wants to get to...but I'm not yet convinced he knows what to do when he gets there. But with Donovan Mitchell back in the lineup, I think the Jazz control game play and I like them to get to work and finish off the Grizz. I'll say Jazz in 5. 

Suns 1-1 Lakers. Oh yeah, this is gonna be fun. The Lakers obviously have the two best players, but that's all they have and if Anthony Davis disappears like he did in Game One, then the Lakers absolutely do not have enough to beat the Suns. Compare this to the Suns, on the other hand, who get not much out of Chris Paul in Game Two--and still should've won! The Suns can still steal games without their best players, the Lakers cannot. This is going seven games because neither of these teams has enough to easily control the other. So far I'm more impressed with the Suns' moxy (and Deandre Ayton's ability to hang with AD) than I am with anything the Lakers have. I'll stick with Suns in 7.

Nuggets 1-1 Blazers. I like the Nuggets to take a game in Portland to even this series up. If the Nuggets had Jamal Murray, I think they'd be up 2-0 but without him the Blazers have a shot. This is going seven, this is going to be a free-for-all shootout and I'm merely sticking with the home team. I got Nuggets in 7. 

Clippers 0-2 Mavs. Uh oh! This is the nightmare scenario for the Clippers, they're in real trouble and heads are going to roll. Dude, you could see it in Game Two: Kawhi and PG balled out and they still got smoked. Luka controls the game as well as anyone right now and the Clippers have no answer for it. Man, if the Mavs sweep the Clippers...oh....man...that's gonna be bad. Can the Clippers get back in this series? I don't see how. I gotta go Mavs in 4.

2020-21 NBA Playoffs (Predictions for Round One)

East

Sixers - Wizards. If the Wizards play their absolute best game, I don't think they win more than one game. The Sixers are not exactly a juggernaut, but they can defend and score enough to knock around a half-assed squad like the Wizards. Sixers in 5. (1 Game in: yeah, that's still what I think; Beal and Westbrook can get hot and steal a game but I can't see any more than that)

Nets - Celtics. The Celtics were sub-par this year, largely (I think) because of an unreliable PG (Kemba) and a 2nd string that simply couldn't keep pace. The Nets have scoring on top of scoring and the Celtics will be without their most important wing defender (Jaylen Brown). Nets in 4. (1 game in: dude, the Celtics shot the lights out in the 1st half and still lost by double digits...yeah, Celtic perfection might cover the spread but ain't gonna win a single match in this series)

Bucks - Heat. Last year, I liked the Heat and I was right; but this year, the Bucks are coming in underrated and the Heat are coming in overrated. The Heat have been okay this year but Adebayo has not taken a leap, nor has Herro, and while Dragic looks ready to play, not sure about Butler or the rest of the bench. The Bucks, on the other hand, look stronger on both ends of the court and are flying under the radar (though Giannis just as easily could've won another MVP this season). Won't be a walkover, but I like the Bucks to be the better team throughout. Bucks in 6. (2 games in: yeah, not surprised the Heat came in hard the first night (but came up short) and limped out in game 2 (and got drilled; I like the Bucks Game Four and finish the series back in Milwaukee))

Knicks - Hawks. This'll be the fun one! Two teams that haven't made much noise in a while, both on the rise, neither is really ready to win but both are gonna be tough outs--almost a shame they're facing each other (like when two spunky underdogs accidentally get paired together in March Madness). Should be a rock fight from start to finish, I like Randle to rise above and seal Game Seven. Knicks in 7. (1 game in: nice little upset for the Hawks in Game One, but I still see it going seven, so not a shocker)

West

Jazz - Grizzlies. I would've given the Warriors a puncher's chance to really fluster the Jazz, but I don't see the Grizz getting much done. The Grizzlies have a nice toughness and depth but they're real green, man, none of those guys have ever done anything. Beating the Warriors was a nice biscuit for them, but I don't see them giving Utah much to worry about this year. Jazz in 5. (1 game in: The Grizz keep it going! I like the effort, they caught the Jazz flat footed and showed off some real firepower. The Grizzlies are already better than I gave them credit for, I can see them winning another game, but in the end the Jazz are still the better team and should shine out; I'll change it to Jazz in 6)

Suns - Lakers. Yeah, I know Lebron is awesome and Anthony Davis at his best is maybe the most un-guardable player in the league and they're the defending champs and, you know, Lakers...yeah, yeah, I get all that. But neither Lebron, nor AD is at full strength, the legendary Lakers home court advantage can't be nearly as great as usual and the rest of the supporting cast is really thin this time around. I don't see what Andre Drummond is supposed to do for them (*), I don't see Kuzma. Mntrezl, or KCP being a difference maker, and as much as I love Caruso (love that guy!), he's not enough of a factor to make up for a soft night from either of the big stars. The Lakers have no margin for error and do you really wanna face Chris Paul in that circumstance? I like Devin Booker to go off, the Suns have the better supporting cast, the surer PG and the home court advantage and honestly I'm not sure the Lakers have 4 really good games in them (yeah, it takes 16 to win a championship...I don't even see 4). I'll take the Suns in 7 (feels like a sucker bet). (1 game in: a little surprised at how thoroughly Ayton dismantled AD but not at all surprised that the Lakers couldn't get going. Wouldn't be surprised to see a repeat in Game Two; I'm sticking with the Suns in 7)

Nuggets - Blazers. The Nuggets without Jamal Murray should still be good enough to get past the Blazers. Lillard, McCollum and Melo/Simons/Powell can definitely go off and finish games, but I think the Nuggets rotation headlined by MVP Jokic will be enough to get by the Blazers. I wanna say Nuggets in 6, but I like the home court to hold, so I'll say Nuggets in 7. (2 games in: a little surprised the Blazers took the first game simply because I thought the home team would dominate--and they may have just stolen the series right there; but I had it going 7 and they're both good teams that can get hot at any moment, so I'll stick with Nuggets in 7 (although clearly I got more doubt than I did before))

Clippers - Mavs. Fun series! Last year, the Mavs just weren't ready for the Clippers and frankly that dynamic should not have changed. But Luka just continues to put his stamp on the league and the Clippers are quite capable of Clipping, so this series is definitely worth keeping an eye on. Wouldn't be surprised to see the momentum in this series go back and forth throughout. I'll stick with the vets with the home court. Clippers in 7. (1 game in: not shocked by the Mavs stealing Game One, I think the game was closer than it looked and that the Clippers tried to experiment on D and it didn't work. I can see either team winning but this doesn't change my original thought; I'll stick with the Clippers)

(*) Why didn't they take a run at Blake Griffin? Was Blake set on the Nets or did the Lakers truly think he was washed? At the time, the Lakers were still on course to play the Clippers in the second round, why not roll in with Blake in a Laker uni? What revenge: the Clippers made the recent moves possible by cutting bait on Blake and exiling him to Detroit, for Blake to reappear with Lebron and AD would've been the ultimate kick to the crotch, no?

2020-21 NBA Playoffs (Play-in games)

Hornets 117-144 Pacers

Yeah, the Hornets were completely out of gas by the end of the season and were never in this game even for a minute. The Pacers played well, looked pretty good. 

Wizards 100-118 Celtics

I was surprised by this, thinking the fury of Russell Westbrook could pretty much single-handedly take the retiring Celtics, who look ready to be done with this season. Instead, Westbrook couldn't get any offense going (he was at his best when he was hunting for fouls more than buckets) and Beal and Bertans didn't score either. The Wizards mostly flailed and let Tatum go for 50. Honestly I can only assume that the Wizards wanted even less of the Nets than the Celtics did. 

Spurs 96-100 Grizzlies

Hard fought battle, the Grizzlies were generally a step ahead of the Spursand controlled pretty much throughout. Everytime the Spurs made a run, the Grizz would regroup and get the lead back. Frustrating watch as team defense just isn't as sexy as stars putting up big numbers. 

Warriors 100-103 Lakers

Fun game. The Warriors were up at halftime but was the glass half full or half empty: Curry didn't light it up and the Warriors were still ahead, but neither did Lebron or Davis and the Lakers weren't out of it. Davis got right in the 2nd half and Lebron did all his Lebron stuff and a late flailing 3 that the Warriors couldn't counter was the difference. The Warriors really wanted this game and it was there for them but frankly no one shot well, Wiggins defended Lebron well at times but then didn't mark him much in the 2nd half. I'm not surprised the Lakers won--they really wanted this game and still had to flail a fluke to get it--but I really have doubts about this squad. 

Pacers 115-142 Wizards

So, they couldn't score at all on the Celtics, then drop 142 on the Pacers. Come on, man, the Wizards didn't wanna play the Nets, that's all. The Pacers just never got going, while the Wizards hit every shot they put up it seemed like. 

Grizzlies 117-112 (ot) Warriors

Man, I didn't even think the Grizz played all that well, but Draymond was pretty awful, Wiggins disappeared for long stretches, Curry was okay but not great and the Grizz just kinda never went away. The Warriors were really gassed by overtime while the Grizz still seemed kinda fresh. Ja Morant is not a player I've seen much of, he's a weird player: seems totally in control and yet has no idea what he's doing simultaneously. He gets into the lane without much effort but never seems to know what he's gonna do when he gets there. 

A personal note on the play-in games, which were started last year (in the bubble). This is the first year out in the real world that the league has had this intro to the post-season. Personally I didn't like it, don't wanna like it, don't need it in the future. 

For the most part, I'd say no one liked the play-in games. And that's considering that this year featured the defending champs (that rare #7 seed that actually could win the championship) against the most popular NBA star of his generation (the rare #8 seed that actually has a strong national interes)--and went to a riveting late game finish--in the West; while the East featured two teams eager to avoid facing the #2 Nets, bringing its own wacky drama. 

And in the end the only difference it made was bouncing Steph Curry--what's the upside of that? 

This year's version is basically the best possible arrangement of teams we're ever going to see...and we still didn't like it. 

Commissioner Silver, the answer is clear: this year is as good as this will ever be, meaning you should end it now. 

Remember: if the NBA play-in games were really like MLB's version, then the playoffs would've been: Sixers, Bucks, Hawks with the Nets playing the Heat for the 4th spot in the East and Jazz, Suns, Mavs with the Nuggets playing the Clippers for 4th in the West. That's not what we got, nor will we ever. (*)

(*) I didn't like the play-in game. I wasn't sure if I made that clear. Lebron v Steph will never--can never--be repeated. This will never be better than it was this year and this year really wasn't all that great anyway. 

2020-21 NBA Awards (Rookie of the Year)

94 NBA Debuts in 2020-21. 21 played over 1000 minutes, 27 played fewer then 100 minutes. 22 averaged more than 20MPG, 9 averaged over 10PPG, 

This rookie class looks to me like a lot of mid-level talent but not a lot of obvious stars. I think this class is going play a ton of games in the future, but probably not a lot of All-Star Games. That's not bad, the world needs good basketball players the same way it needs great ones. 

My criteria: ROY, to me, is a forward-looking (as opposed to backward-looking) award. So, for example, in most of these Awards I have an obsession with Minutes Played (*); but with Rookies, I don't give a shit how many minutes they played. I care about who seems to be the most promising prospect going forward. This is pretty much pure eyeball test because I don't really care about the stats on rookies. How many of these rookies got MVP votes? (Zero) How many of these rookies single-handedly dragged their teams into the playoffs? (Zero) How many of them led the league in anything? (Zero) So...what does comparing their stats tell us? (Almost Zero) The question is who has the best chance to be a bust out superstar? This year, I thought that was a pretty easy call.

Rookie of the Year: Anthony Edwards (Wolves)

Edwards is still very raw but his potential left the Wolves feeling optimistic at the end of the season when, frankly, not much good happened (and they've probably already given away their lottery pick). His athleticism is something unseen before and if Minnesota wasn't such a gloomy organization (**), I think we'd have seen a lot more of him in the general NBA buzz. The way he gets to the rim is something to behold, man, and he's got at least 3-4 more years of getting better at that! Clearly he hasn't actually played much basketball in his life--and I think that's great! He's raw but he doesn't have bad habits! He can be trained to be something unworldly (get to work on FT%, my man, you're gonna be at the line an awful lot). Yeah, the Wolves have pretty much botched everything the last few years and picking a project at #1 was not a guarantee, but I think Edwards has amazing upside and he's my pick for ROY. 

I'll take Tyrese Halliburton (Kings) next. Yeah, yeah, I like LaMelo Ball (Hornets) as much as the next guy, he's got a lot of upside as a playmaker and just a fun watch on the court. But I've got doubts about his ability to be a consistent force, I think it's going to take him a while to settle in to being a reliable player and the way the Hornets have managed rosters over the years, I got a bad feeling he might not ever get there. And head-to-head, Halluburton is a much better shooter and has a better asst:to, though LaMelo gets to the line at a much better clip and is a better rebounder. I like both of these guys, I think they're really similar players but I think Halliburton actually has a better chance to be the better player. 

I'll take Immanual Quickly (Knicks) next. As a rook, I thought he handled himself well as a playmaker and is clearly gonna be a good scorer. (The Knicks movement for all Kentucky/Duke guys is probably not a bad idea for them) 

I'll round out my top five with Patrick Williams (Bulls) is definitely a player--again, though, probably not an all-star, just a reliable down low guy for many years to come. Probably not gonna be the biggest number hanger but he's the kinda guy other guys are gonna wanna play with.  

A few more nice rookies: RJ Hampton (Magic), Alkesej Pokusevski (Thunder), Saddiq Bey (Pistons), Precious Achiuwa (Heat). And I'm not out on James Wiseman (Warriors), I think he can still be a really good player but it might not be for Golden State (if he'd had Klay Thompson....oh, we could've gotten a real look at him). Not a bust, clearly has talent on both ends, but he's young, a bit of a project, I think he's still got a ton of upside and Steve Kerr will hopefully be the guy to get it. 

Not sure about: Cole Anthony (Magic), Malachi Flynn (Raptors), Tyrese Maxey (Sixers), Devin Vassell (Spurs), Dani Avdija (Wizards), Desmond Bane (Grizzlies).  They all had moments of looking good but then again...not. Hard to tell which is these guys will bloom, which won't, or which will need a change of scenery. Although I can proscribe a change of scenery for one player already: Obi Toppin (Knicks). I thought he looked kinda nice and there's definitely potential there, but it ain't gonna be with NYK (unless they move on from Julius Randle--which can totally happen, btw, don't underestimate the Knicks' ability to outsmart themselves). (***)

Two from my blind spot: the Cavs are in my blackout zone and I didn't watch much Rockets this year, so Isaac Okoro (Cavs) and Jae'San Tate (Rockets), nice to meet you. Nice stats, Okoro in particular really looks like a promising member of the Cavs core (moving on from Kevin Love has got to be their priority for the summer) and, well, the Rockets will likely suck at everything for the next coupla years, so Tate will probably neither add nor subtract from that going forward (which makes valuing his on-court play virtually impossible); is Tate built to dominate a crappy team or is he legit good and stuck in a soul-sucking situation? I dunno, could go either way. 

And there's a batch I'm little more muted on: Theo Maledon (Grizzlies), Payton Pritchard (Celtics), Jaden McDaniels (Wolves), Chuma Okeke (Magic), Facundo Campazzo (Nuggets), Isiah Stewart (Pistons), Killian Hayes (Pistons), Aaron Nesmith (Celtics). I can see them all becoming reliable rotation guys but I predict zero all-star appearances from this batch. 

(*) Yeah back in the day I took Joel Embiid over Malcolm Brogdon....and I really like Brogdon! But I got no regrets, Embiid looked to be the better player at the time and he has become the better player in the years since. That's what I'm talking about: these rookie stats have come and gone and made no difference to anyone, this award is about tomorrow not yesterday. 

(**) I still blame Thibs. Flip Saunders (RIP) was building something and Thibs turned it into nothing.

(***) Displacement is what brought Randle to NYK (Lebron pushed him out LA and Zion pushed him out of New Orleans) seems only fitting that he's gonna push Toppin out to find his space. 

2020-21 NBA Awards (Coach of the Year)

Okay, I'll admit it: I have no idea what an NBA coach does (*). The kind of work they really do is behind the scenes, the subtle massaging of egos and the ability to properly tear grown men a new one and make it mean something. That doesn't tend to happen on the sideline during the game or at the post-game press conference, so all I see of the coaches is the shit they don't do. Strategizing to put players in their most optimal opportunities to produce is pretty much 100% of it but I don't really know what that looks like and, of course, it's success is largely dependent on the talent that is available. So...yeah....I'm totally guessing. 

Coach of the Year: Quin Snyder (Jazz). 

The Jazz have been coming for a while now and this was their season. Utah is in that weird pocket of the country that no one pays attention to (Mountain Time Zone, what?) and features a true ensemble team that rolls ten deep and gets contributions from all over. Coach Snyder isn't relying on one guy to do it all, nor is it simply a 'team concept' that follows his orders, rather it is a group of autonomous guys, any one of whom might feel like he's the star on any given night. They play loose and they have a lot of personalities and balancing all that to finish #1 in the West is impressive. 

The rest of my top ten: Doc Rivers (Sixers), Mike Malone (Nuggets), Steve Nash (Nets), Tom Thibodeau (Knicks), Tyron Lue (Clippers), Monty Williams (Suns), (and just to make it look like a top ten) Steve Kerr (Warriors), Taylor Jenkins (Grizzlies), Nate McMillan (Hawks)

Rivers working his magic with a Sixers team that has had a slow build to immense expectations was a joy to behold this year. The Sixers could've turtled up and pretended they weren't ready for another year but Rivers kept that from happening. So he's my Eastern Conference COY.

Mike Malone (Nuggets) juggles a lot of players and makes the most them once again. Nash seems like he was handed the best roster in the game but not so fast--there's a lot of weird energy on that team and he was able to keep them in line--even when they didn't show up for long stretches of time. Thibodeau has never been a favorite of mine but I think this year's roster is precisely what he's good at: getting the most out of reclamation projects (the Knicks might just be the perfect place for him). Lue was able to guide the Clippers to a quiet, understated (which is the way to go in Clipperland) 4th place finish, leaving them well-positioned for the post-season. I like Monty Williams as much as the next guy but after digging into the stats, I'd say the Paul-Booker-Ayton trio does most of the heavy lifting, so while I don't want to diss the improvement the Suns made this season, I'm not really sure Williams is the guy to credit for that.  

The also-rans: 

So while I've seen Frank Vogel (Lakers) have impressive teams in the past, this year was mostly treading water and hanging on to the last possible rung in the ladder, which was not so impressive to behold. 

Terry Stotts (Blazers) has had interesting years in the past (and some duds), but this team is so strictly on auto-pilot right now (for better and for worse), that I'm not sure he's even there on a daily basis.

Mike Budenholzer (Bucks) has a history of getting the most out of lesser rosters, but this year's Bucks team faded from the usual spot--despite being better than they've ever been! So while I think that positions them well for the post-season (oh, I'll be coming back to this in a future post!), this regular season seemed strangely anti-climactic for the team that has been coming for a while now. 

I've long been a big fan of Erik Spoelstra (Heat), but somehow the defending eastern champs never looked right to me all season long. Yeah, there were injuries and Covid-19 and all that, but I never felt like this team knew what it was, when frankly it should. The high pressure expectations of the abstraction that is "Heat Culture" sometimes overwhelm a clear identity (when it feels like it should be the opposite, right?). 

I think Brad Stevens (Celtics) is maybe the greatest coach in the biz right now (Calipari is just keeping the sideline at Rupp warm for him), but the Celtics were barely better than the Wizards this year, not even as good as the Warriors, not nearly as good as the Blazers. Why is that? I don't blame Stevens but I think he's done so much with so little for so long that the Celtics brass thinks he can just do that every year and this year proved that isn't so. The higher expectations get, the more talent he will need to command to reach those heights. The Celtics were fine this season but they've been trending up and that trend didn't hold. 

(*) OMG and European soccer coaches...I don't even know why teams have those...

2020-21 NBA Awards (MVP)

My awards criteria. 1) Player must be in the top 100 in either Minutes Played or Games Played. This gives a pool of 150 players. (Notable players left behind: Lebron James, Joel Embiid, Karl-Anthony Towns, James Harden, Nikola Vucevic, CJ McCollum, Jamal Murray, Kevin Durant, Caris LaVert, Gordon Hayward, Christian Wood, Kelly Oubre, Kristaps Porzingis, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Anthony Davis, Marcus Smart, Aaron Gordon, etc.) 

2) Players must be in the top 20 in either FGA, 3FGA, 2FGA, FTA, Total Rebounds, Assists, Steals, Blocks, or Points. (Notable players left behind: Kawhi Leonard, Paul George (*), Malcolm Brogdon, Micheal Porter Jr., Dillon Brooks, Darius Garland, Harrison Barnes, Denis Shroder, etc.)

3) This leaves a pool of 81 players. I more or less discarded at least one player per team to create an MVP for each team. (Notable players left behind: Kevin Huerter, Jaylen Brown, Joe Harris, PJ Washington, Andrew Wiggins, Tim Hardaway Jr, Ja Morant, Duncan Robinson, Khris Middleton, Jrue Holiday, Lonzo Ball and Brandon Ingram, RJ Barrett, Enes Kanter, Pascal Siakim, Russell Westbrook, etc.)

4) From the pool of team MVP's, surely we can find the league MVP. 

Trae Young (Hawks), Jaysun Tatum (Celtics), Kyrie Irving (Nets), Zach LaVine (Bulls), Terry Rozier (Hornets), Collin Sexton (Cavs), Luka Doncic (Mavs), Nikola Jokic (Nuggets), Jerami Grant (Pistons), Steph Curry (Warriors), Domantas Sabonis (Pacers), Ivaca Zubac (Clipper), Jonas Valenciunas (Grizzlies), Giannis Antetokounpo (Bucks), Anthony Edwards (Wolves), Zion Williamson (Pelicans), Julius Randle (Knicks), Damian Lillard (Blazers), De'Aron Fox (Kings), Fred Van Vleet (Raptors), Rudy Gobert (Jazz), Bradley Beal (Wizards). Lakers, Magic, Rockets, Thunder had no MVP candidate and I couldn't decide on Heat, Sixers, Suns and Spurs. (**)

So....who's the MVP? Well there are some limitations to the above methodology. The Sixers MVP is Joel Embiid, not Simmons or Harris; likewise, the Wolves MVP is Karl-Anthony Towns, not the rookie PG. I'm not sure who the Clipper MVP is but I'm certain it's not Ivaca Zubac. The Laker MVP is....not nobody. I can live with no candidates from Thunder, Rockets and Magic because these three organizations did virtually nothing to win games. But to miss on playoff teams like the Sixers, Clippers and Lakers is clearly awkward. (***)

Okay here's the case for Embiid (though he didn't play enough for my liking): top 15 in Points scored, top 18 in True Shooting Percentage (only Curry, Jokic and Zion scored more Points), #2 in FTA (on 86% shooting), #2 in PER (behind only Jokic), #2 in Usage (behind only Luka), #15 in Total Rebounds, #33 in Steals + Blocks, and was the clear MVP of a #1 seed. Also, he's a fun watch and has even toned down the pointless quick 3's he used to indulge in. 

I didn't find anyone else to add back into consideration. (****)

MVP: Nikola Jokic (Nuggets) #1 in PER (31.3), #3 in Points, #6 in Minutes Played, #14 in FTA (87% shooter), #3 in Assists (#5 in Turnovers, though the asst:to is still pretty great), #5 in Total Rebounds, #15 in Steals + Blocks, #15 in True Shooting % (only Curry outscored him) and was the clear MVP of a #2 seed. Nice work. He's been the man all year long. 

The rest of my top ten: Steph Curry (Warriors), Joel Embiid (Sixers), Giannis Antetokounpo (Bucks), Julius Randle (Knicks), Kyrie Irving (Nets)(*****), Luka Doncic (Mavs), Zion Williamson (Pelicans), Damien Lillard (Blazers), Rudy Gobert (Jazz)

(*) Did you realize that for the 2020-21 NBA season, Paul George finished in the top 20 of only one counting stat: Turnovers. 

(**) Couldn't decide: 

(Heat) Bam Adebayo v Jimmy Butler. Adebayo scored more points on more attempts and was in the top 20 in Rebounds (Off, Def and Total) and FTA while playing more minutes in more games; Butler's asst:to ratio is pretty phenomenal and his 2FG% and FT% are excellent; both are top quality in Steals and Blocks with Adebayo having the slight edge on Butler. But Adebayo is turnover prone, while Butler is really bad 3-pt shooter. My gut is to take Adebayo's overall contribution but Butler's presence is clearly commanding and decisive. Hard to choose. 

(Sixers) Ben Simmons v Tobias Harris. The Good: Simmons is a good assist man and a great defender; Harris is a good shooter from all over the floor, way more of a scorer than Simmons and he also out rebounded Simmons this season. The Bad: Simmons is a terrible FT shooter (and ought to get to the line a lot more anyway), he's clearly reluctant to shoot and a bit turnover prone; Harris is a solid player on both ends but nothing superlative compared to his peers. (Yeah: the problem here is that neither of these guys is the Sixer MVP this season, but here I'm leaning toward Harris, I think he actually contributes more all around than Simmons)

(Suns) Devin Booker v Chris Paul v Deandre Ayton. Booker is the better scorer (top 20 in 2FGA and FTA, good percentage on both), though he is turnover prone and an overrated 3-pt shooter. Paul (as always) sports a legendary asst:to, his Steals plus Blocks is high level and his scoring is still reliable. Ayton is killing on Rebounds and Blocks, shoots a good percentage and doesn't seem foul prone. The three all played similar minutes in similar games. Booker is the filler upper, Paul is the brains of the operation, but Ayton deserves his share of the credit for being a dependable defensive bedrock (the poor man's Gobert but much better on offense). This team is more a 3-headed monster than most folks notice and picking their MVP is tougher than I would've thought. 

(Spurs) Dejounte Murray v DeMar DeRozan. Murray is among the league leaders in Assists, Steals and Defensive Rebounds but is not a particularly good 3-pt shooter and feels like he should be getting more Free Throws. DeRozan is still a good scorer inside the 3-pt line and outpaces Murray by a large margin on FTA and Assists. (Both sport very impressive asst:to) Murray played more minutes in more games but scored far fewer points and while he doesn't do anything badly, his production still lags DeRozan. Similar to Adebayo and Butler, both of these guys perform their tasks well enough that it's hard to see who is actually more valuable.  

(***) Also, Nikola Vucevic (Bulls/Magic) had a really good season but no one noticed because it was split between two teams that did nothing this season. Too bad, he's not gonna get any MVP votes this year when he deserves to at least be in the conversation: #3 in Total Rebounds, #11 in Points, #18 in PER, #23 in Usage, #22 in True Shooting %, all while surrounded by non-playoff rosters. Almost certainly the most underappreciated player in the league right now. Bonus: I think this was the sneaky best transaction of the season: we obsess over the worst contract in basketball, but I would submit that Vucevic over the next 3 years is arguably the best contract in the league and the Bulls made a brilliant move snapping him up. 

(****) Lebron, I hear you say. Lebron only played 44 games and, of course, he was Lebron. But his team finished 7th and needs a real coming together to look dangerous in the playoffs. So what exactly am I supposed to be putting on my all-NBA team? This guy? Why? Yeah, even upon deeper consideration I can't put Lebron wildly ahead of Jonas Valenciunas--yes, I realize Lebron is a better player but in this particular season his performance was not all that noteworthy. He's not getting on my MVP ballot and I don't see how he had a top 15 season this year, so inclusion on all-NBA team is just some kind of hero worship. 

Karl-Anthony Towns has nice stats, he's a nice player. Good shooting percentage at all levels, reliable rebounder, decent defender, decent playmaker, I like his game. But this is Anthony Edwards' team now, you realize that, right? Edwards is still raw but he's enormously promising--don't be shocked if he turns into Giannis....yeah, I said that--and Towns (and Beasley and Russell and this year's draft pick) needs to get himself oriented to the new paradigm. So does Towns deserve to be on my MVP ballot? Nope, not this year. I like him, like his game, think Minnesota is strangely promising, but nothing Towns did this season puts him ahead of Nikola Vucevic on my ballot. 

(*****) Kyrie Irving finished in the top 20 in Points without finishing in the top 20 in FGA, 3FGA, 2FGA or FTA. Uh....that doesn't even seem possible... 

(******) Next year's MVP candidates to keep an eye on: De'Aaron Fox (Kings), Bam Adebayo (Heat), Dejounte Murray (Spurs), Domantas Sabonis (Pacers), Nikola Vucevic (Bulls), Jaysun Tatum (Celtics)

2020-21 NBA Playoffs

End of the NBA season (*), time for pointless predictions. 

I'll take the Pacers over the Hornets and Wizards over Celtics tonight. Then I'm thinking Celtics over Pacers.

I'll take Grizzlies over Spurs and Lakers over Warriors tomorrow night. Then I'm thinking Warriors over Grizzlies.

I'll do the full playoff predictions by the end of the week. Getting pretty excited for the playoffs!

(*) I've been scouring the season stats for the last few days and I'm not quite ready but I'd be pretty surprised if I ended up with something other than: MVP: Nikola Jokic (Nuggets), DPOY: Rudy Gobert (Jazz); 6th Man: Jordan Clarkson (Jazz); COY: Quin Snyder (Jazz), GMOY: Sean Marks (Nets); still kicking around ROY (think I'm leaning toward Tyrese Hallburton (Kings) but not sure yet).