Conference Championship Week
(To start off by tooting my own horn, I went 8 for 8 in my Pick 'Em league this week. Yeah, 7 of the 8 faves won their games (sorry, Utah) but I don't have too many perfect weeks in my years of doing this so horn tooting is in order)
Games I saw some of:
(1) Ohio State 34-21 (8) Wisconsin
The thing about Ohio State is that they're probably the most consistent, reliable squad out there...except that against Penn State and Wisconsin they did nothing in the 1st half, then dominated the 2nd half. Dominating the 2nd half is nice but if they fall too far behind Clemson or LSU, they'll find it tough to get back in it, I think. I was cool with them moving to #1 a few weeks back and I'm just as cool with them falling to #2 going into the playoff. Clemson is gonna be tough--should be a great game!
(4) Georgia 10-37 (2) Louisiana State
Yeah, UGA gave a game effort but they just could not move the ball (dropped passes were a luxury they could not afford) and when LSU got going, they rolled without much effort. Dang, dude, LSU is really good this year, and while I think their typically rock solid defense is kinda rickety, that offense is just about perfect. I think they'll pummel Oklahoma and the Clemson/Ohio State winner will make for an intriguing Final.
(17) Virginia 17-62 (3) Clemson
Didn't watch much but I gotta say I was way more impressed with UVA than I expected to be. They hung in there and had a coupla nice drives early and though they didn't come close to covering the 28-point spread, did anyone think there were going to? Clemson plays such a soft schedule every year that it's virtually impossible to tell how good they are. Last year I didn't think they could hang with Alabama but I wasn't sure...until the Final started and Bama was utterly powerless against them. Can they do that again? I think they can do that to Ohio State and while I'm skeptical they can beat LSU, I don't know that for sure. We won't know til they suit up and hit the field.
(7) Baylor 23-30 (OT) (6) Oklahoma
Man, Baylor just kept losing QBs but they still generally looked like the better team until OT, when they really just had no shot. Oklahoma has a nice offense but that defense has yet to impress and even though it feels like Jalen Hurts ought to be enough to put them in the discussion, I just don't see them winning two more games, as they are a distant 4th place going into the playoff. (LISTEN UP: if Oklahoma doesn't look like they can even come close to hanging with the top 3, then there is absolutely no need for an 8-team playoff! Four teams is perfect, don't mess with perfection!)
(20) Cincinnati 24-29 (17) Memphis
Fun game actually, really thought Cincy would pull it out. Both squads had their moments but Memphis did well to come out on top.
Games I saw none of:
(5) Utah 15-37 (13) Oregon
Could've watched it, just forgot. If Utah had won they would've had a good shot at getting that #4 seed (and getting slaughtered by LSU) but Oregon's offense showed up and controlled the game throughout.
Hawaii 10-31 (19) Boise State
Saw none of either of these teams but Boise State hung around the top 20 so I had at least a little bit of familiarity with them. Score looks about right to me.
Louisiana 38-45 (21) Appalachian State
I've liked App all year long, they're wily and they can score. Those Louisiana schools always have good QBs and WRs but I figured App had the firepower to hang.
My final rankings:
(1) Louisiana State (Dude, that offense is unstoppable, Burrow has perfect touch and knows exactly where to go with the ball every time. I think they'll destroy Oklahoma)
(2) Ohio State (Very workmanlike team, big talent all over the field, they move the ball and they attack on defense at a high level, still has big play ability while nailing down the little things, they're gonna be a tough out for anyone)
(3) Clemson (Maybe #2, might throttle the Buckeyes, I dunno, we'll see. After last year's thrashing of Bama, I'm not turning my back on these guys no matter how that soft schedule is, but I got to put them behind the Buckeyes because I saw the Buckeyes beat decent teams and I didn't see that from Clemson)
(4) Alabama (Yeah, things didn't come together for them this year, devastating injury to their star QB, defense wasn't as great as usual and LSU was a buzzsaw. But if they were put in this playoff, I'd give them a better shot than anyone else--yeah, crappiest Bama season in a decade but don't get it twisted: I'd take them to beat Oklahoma or Georgia even with a 3rd string QB)
(5) Georgia (Not so much an SEC homer as a non-believer in Oklahoma. Head to head I'd give them at least a puncher's chance against OU)
(6) Oklahoma (Good but should be better, the defense is not good, the offense isn't as good as it ought to be. I was not blown away by their effort against Baylor and I do not like their chances moving forward)
(7) Wisconsin (Classic Badger team, big boys up front that can move the ball, stingy defense, up against a sneaky good Buckeye squad this season)
(8) Oregon (Not bad but inconsistent enough to drop behind the SEC and Big 10 also-rans)
(9) Nobody. Utah had their chance and blew it, Baylor was spent by the end of the year, Florida was not that great, Penn State was okay but nothing special, Auburn had ups and downs but a lot of teams did, Minnesota had moments of impressing me but not enough to really matter, Notre Dame and Michigan were fine but nothing superlative. If I had to pick a #9 (which I most certainly do not), I'd probably take App State, they showed up more than the teams above did (most of whom were only marginally better--if at all--than Texas A&M).
It was a really good college football season. There was at least one really good game every weekend this year and I gotta give a shout-out to how consistently compelling the action was throughout. After all that, I'm as convinced as ever that an 8-team playoff is absolutely unnecessary (though obviously inevitable).
I get it: the playoff is made for TV and the TV simply wants more games because people would watch (yeah, *sigh*, I'd watch) but if you add teams thinking that Boise State or Central Florida will get the shot they deserve, I think you're mistaken. An 8-team playoff would get the 3rd best SEC team--and deservedly so!--rather than making room for smaller conferences, which only means that an 8-team playoffs would quickly become a 16-team playoff, which would be even more unnecessary. I know you think 8 teams would open it up to more teams but I think it would do the exact opposite: it would cement the top 10 programs and everyone else would get pushed further to the margins.
Also, here's a weird rant: I'm tired of the "Targeting" penalty. I'm not saying get rid of it but I'm actually really impressed with how well (for the most part) players have so quickly morphed to meet the change in rules, so impressed that a further tweaking of the rule is worth considering. To wit: 1) it's never called on the offense, as if defenders are always fault and aren't deserving of the same safety considerations, which is simply not true--and likely to get even less true as coaches train runners to be more aggressive!; and 2) the sheer name of it suggests a malicious intent that is often not the case. If we're trying to tone down the malice then the rulings need to become more fair to all the players and not simply favor the ball carriers. I get the rule but, again, I think the kids have adapted extremely well considering it's the antithesis of what they've been taught to do all their lives. And continuing to punish defenders for doing their jobs as if they're the only ones at fault needs to change.
Friday, December 13, 2019
Wednesday, November 27, 2019
2019-20 NFL (Week 12)
Games I saw (some of):
Steelers 16-10 Bengals
In the 3rd quarter the Steelers benched 2nd string QB Mason Rudolph for 3rd string QB Devlin Hodges; Hodges had one perfect pass that went for a long TD and that was pretty much the game. Make no mistake outside of one play, Hodges was no better (or different, really) from Rudolph but he gets the W. The Bengals, on the other hand, are still playing their 2nd string QB (uh....I can't remember the dude's name) because they benched Andy Dalton weeks ago, though while watching this game seemed to me it was great time to bring Dalton back to spark the team to a W. Turns out the Bengals don't really wanna win, so they fumbled away a perfectly winnable game against their dreaded rivals. (News: Dalton's gonna start next week....why? What's the point of bringing him back now? *smh*) The Steelers have a good pass rush, solid LB's and a good secondary, which might be good enough to steal some W's (especially as the weather turns wintery) even though that offense is pretty bad right now. The Bengals are playing for the #1 pick and since I live in Bengals TV territory, I'd very much prefer they just forfeited the upcoming games so I could watch something else!
Seahawks 17-9 Eagles
The Seahawks scored their two TD's on a long pass play and a breakaway run, otherwise their offense didn't really do much. And even though the Eagles never seemed in this game, it was still winnable late. The Eagles ought to be better, I don't understand why they've struggled but their schedule gets easier so wouldn't be surprised to see them get hot late. The Seahawks are a smart team and they're gonna be a tough out for anyone come playoff time.
Cowboys 9-13 Patriots
4th down late inside the Pats' 10 yard line, down by 7, the Cowboys go for a FG...why? What good is a FG in that situation? Getting stopped and pinning the Pats down on their own goal line is not a terrible outcome there. You know, the Pats didn't exactly blow the Cowboys out. Take out the blocked punt and another Cowboy turnover that led to an FG and the Pats...uh...didn't hardly do anything in this match. Yeah, I'm officially on the Garret's-gotta-go bandwagon. I typically don't fancy myself an expert on football coaching but there was a chance for the Cowboys to win this game and the coach kept them from doing that and that is unforgivable. The Pats have a really good D and Brady is still capable but that offense is not classic, I can see them getting smoked in the playoffs.
Packers 8-37 Niners
Wow. I'm in on the Niners now. The Niners casually piled up points but right before halftime they stole an extra TD and an extra FG and you could tell right then that the Packers got snookered and the Niners were the better and smarter team. Rodgers tried to get it going in the 2nd half but the Niners came right back with a long TD (beautiful roll out by Garoppolo and the perfect placement on the pass) and, man, it was over. Packers mailed in the rest of the game. The Niners are good, man, they're looking at a bye in the playoffs; Packers are solid, I expect them to be there and to be dangerous in the post-season.
Games I didn't see (surprised by result):
Bucs 35-22 Falcons
Just when the Falcons started to look like the team they should've been all year long, they get rolled at home by a so-so division opponent led by Jameis Winston. WTF? The Bucs are kinda fun, they throw the ball around with abandon but they're not built to win games and their off-season revolves around what to do at QB.
Raiders 3-34 Jets
The Raiders were getting going, felt like the Jets were gonna be easy pickins'...uh, not so much. The Jets have been ballin' out lately, feels like they finally got a little bit offense. Going West to East is tough and the Raiders just weren't up for NYJ giving them a game.
Games I didn't see (not a surprise):
Colts 17-20 Texans
Yeah, these teams do this to each other twice a year.
Broncos 3-20 Bills
The Bills D is possibly overrated but they're good enough to stuff a below average offense (also going West to East). It wasn't that long ago that the Broncos pass rush was the most fearsome in the league, what happened to that?
Giants 14-19 Bears
The Giants are terrible, the Bears aren't great but they're good enough to beat a team like this.
Dolphins 24-41 Browns
Browns busted out, good for them.
Panthers 31-34 Saints
Closer than it should've been, Panthers special teams kinda blew this game.
Lions 16-19 Redskins
Two bad teams, fortunately there was only one bad game.
Jags 20-42 Titans
Yeah, sure.
Ravens 45-6 Rams
I think the Ravens are the best team in the league right now. Lamar Jackson is shaping up to be the superstar he was hoped to be, the D is locked in, this a team that knows who they are and how to do what they need to do. The danger is that they're peaking too early, but they're really ballin' right now. Man, remember when the Rams were in the Super Bowl and everyone was salivating over their genius coach? Oh yeah, that was a year ago. What the hell happened to them?
Steelers 16-10 Bengals
In the 3rd quarter the Steelers benched 2nd string QB Mason Rudolph for 3rd string QB Devlin Hodges; Hodges had one perfect pass that went for a long TD and that was pretty much the game. Make no mistake outside of one play, Hodges was no better (or different, really) from Rudolph but he gets the W. The Bengals, on the other hand, are still playing their 2nd string QB (uh....I can't remember the dude's name) because they benched Andy Dalton weeks ago, though while watching this game seemed to me it was great time to bring Dalton back to spark the team to a W. Turns out the Bengals don't really wanna win, so they fumbled away a perfectly winnable game against their dreaded rivals. (News: Dalton's gonna start next week....why? What's the point of bringing him back now? *smh*) The Steelers have a good pass rush, solid LB's and a good secondary, which might be good enough to steal some W's (especially as the weather turns wintery) even though that offense is pretty bad right now. The Bengals are playing for the #1 pick and since I live in Bengals TV territory, I'd very much prefer they just forfeited the upcoming games so I could watch something else!
Seahawks 17-9 Eagles
The Seahawks scored their two TD's on a long pass play and a breakaway run, otherwise their offense didn't really do much. And even though the Eagles never seemed in this game, it was still winnable late. The Eagles ought to be better, I don't understand why they've struggled but their schedule gets easier so wouldn't be surprised to see them get hot late. The Seahawks are a smart team and they're gonna be a tough out for anyone come playoff time.
Cowboys 9-13 Patriots
4th down late inside the Pats' 10 yard line, down by 7, the Cowboys go for a FG...why? What good is a FG in that situation? Getting stopped and pinning the Pats down on their own goal line is not a terrible outcome there. You know, the Pats didn't exactly blow the Cowboys out. Take out the blocked punt and another Cowboy turnover that led to an FG and the Pats...uh...didn't hardly do anything in this match. Yeah, I'm officially on the Garret's-gotta-go bandwagon. I typically don't fancy myself an expert on football coaching but there was a chance for the Cowboys to win this game and the coach kept them from doing that and that is unforgivable. The Pats have a really good D and Brady is still capable but that offense is not classic, I can see them getting smoked in the playoffs.
Packers 8-37 Niners
Wow. I'm in on the Niners now. The Niners casually piled up points but right before halftime they stole an extra TD and an extra FG and you could tell right then that the Packers got snookered and the Niners were the better and smarter team. Rodgers tried to get it going in the 2nd half but the Niners came right back with a long TD (beautiful roll out by Garoppolo and the perfect placement on the pass) and, man, it was over. Packers mailed in the rest of the game. The Niners are good, man, they're looking at a bye in the playoffs; Packers are solid, I expect them to be there and to be dangerous in the post-season.
Games I didn't see (surprised by result):
Bucs 35-22 Falcons
Just when the Falcons started to look like the team they should've been all year long, they get rolled at home by a so-so division opponent led by Jameis Winston. WTF? The Bucs are kinda fun, they throw the ball around with abandon but they're not built to win games and their off-season revolves around what to do at QB.
Raiders 3-34 Jets
The Raiders were getting going, felt like the Jets were gonna be easy pickins'...uh, not so much. The Jets have been ballin' out lately, feels like they finally got a little bit offense. Going West to East is tough and the Raiders just weren't up for NYJ giving them a game.
Games I didn't see (not a surprise):
Colts 17-20 Texans
Yeah, these teams do this to each other twice a year.
Broncos 3-20 Bills
The Bills D is possibly overrated but they're good enough to stuff a below average offense (also going West to East). It wasn't that long ago that the Broncos pass rush was the most fearsome in the league, what happened to that?
Giants 14-19 Bears
The Giants are terrible, the Bears aren't great but they're good enough to beat a team like this.
Dolphins 24-41 Browns
Browns busted out, good for them.
Panthers 31-34 Saints
Closer than it should've been, Panthers special teams kinda blew this game.
Lions 16-19 Redskins
Two bad teams, fortunately there was only one bad game.
Jags 20-42 Titans
Yeah, sure.
Ravens 45-6 Rams
I think the Ravens are the best team in the league right now. Lamar Jackson is shaping up to be the superstar he was hoped to be, the D is locked in, this a team that knows who they are and how to do what they need to do. The danger is that they're peaking too early, but they're really ballin' right now. Man, remember when the Rams were in the Super Bowl and everyone was salivating over their genius coach? Oh yeah, that was a year ago. What the hell happened to them?
2019-20 NCAA Football (Week 13)
Games I saw (some of):
(8) Penn State 17-28 (2) Ohio State
Slog of a game in the 1st half as both teams adjusted to slippery weather conditions, but it felt like the Buckeyes finally had their legs under them when suddenly they started fumbling all over the place and the Nittany Lions made the most of those mistakes. But once the Buckeyes stopped giving away the game, then the game was over. Buckeyes are seriously legit as a championship contender while the Nittany Lions are nice but second tier at best.
Texas A&M 13-19 (4) Georgia
You know all season long Texas was the team that seemed impressive even though they clearly weren't that good, when actually it is A&M that has been putting up good efforts against teams that they just shouldn't be competing with: tough against Clemson, gave Bama a good game, hung with Auburn. And here they kept UGA from taking off, really made them churn on offense. That said, it never felt like they would win any of those games, so does A&M really have anything to build on? I dunno. Georgia is good but I don't think they're good enough, I don't give them any shot against LSU, though their path to the playoff is still right in front of them.
(6) Oregon 28-31 Arizona State
I caught the 2nd half of this game and I kept waiting for Oregon to start rolling up points but kudos to State for playing them tough and bringing the offense of their own to make this a for-real contest. Oregon needed to win out to get to the playoff and the Sun Devils kept that from happening, tough L for the Ducks.
Top 25
Handled their business
(1) Lousiana State, (2) Ohio State, (4) Georgia, (5) Alabama, (7) Utah, (10) Minnesota, (12) Wisconsin, (13) Michigan, (14) Baylor, (15) Auburn, (16) Notre Dame, (17) Iowa, (18) Memphis, (20) Boise State, (21) Oklahoma State, (23) Southern Cal, (24) Appalachian State
Won but did not impress
(9) Oklahoma. Wasn't that long ago that I was crafting the argument for OU in the playoff, now they're squeaking by TCU. That defense is not top tier even if that offense is.
(19) Cincinnati. I keep waiting for Cincy to do...something interesting. They're good enough to hang around the fringes of the poll by getting by on a flimsy schedule. They're getting W's and that's not insignificant but I'm not blown away by UC.
(22) Iowa State. Meh. Iowa State's whole identity is catching people off guard but how long can that work?
Not so good
(6) Oregon. Offense never got going.
(25) Southern Methodist. Feels like they had Navy in hand, but they did not. Not so good.
Bad beat
(8) Penn State. Game effort but they're not as good as the Buckeyes this season.
Next week's interesting matches:
(1) Ohio State @ (13) Michigan (still a big game, a big opportunity for the Wolverines (re: Coach Harbaugh) to get a signature W)
(5) Alabama @ (15) Auburn (I'm not giving Auburn much of a chance but I'm just trying to give Auburn something to fight for)
(12) Wisconsin @ (8) Minnesota (who had this game circled at the start of the season? I think UM is actually pretty good and this is a great chance for them)
(7) Oklahoma @ (21) Oklahoma State (OU ought to blow them out but that defense is giving OSU a great shot here)
(8) Penn State 17-28 (2) Ohio State
Slog of a game in the 1st half as both teams adjusted to slippery weather conditions, but it felt like the Buckeyes finally had their legs under them when suddenly they started fumbling all over the place and the Nittany Lions made the most of those mistakes. But once the Buckeyes stopped giving away the game, then the game was over. Buckeyes are seriously legit as a championship contender while the Nittany Lions are nice but second tier at best.
Texas A&M 13-19 (4) Georgia
You know all season long Texas was the team that seemed impressive even though they clearly weren't that good, when actually it is A&M that has been putting up good efforts against teams that they just shouldn't be competing with: tough against Clemson, gave Bama a good game, hung with Auburn. And here they kept UGA from taking off, really made them churn on offense. That said, it never felt like they would win any of those games, so does A&M really have anything to build on? I dunno. Georgia is good but I don't think they're good enough, I don't give them any shot against LSU, though their path to the playoff is still right in front of them.
(6) Oregon 28-31 Arizona State
I caught the 2nd half of this game and I kept waiting for Oregon to start rolling up points but kudos to State for playing them tough and bringing the offense of their own to make this a for-real contest. Oregon needed to win out to get to the playoff and the Sun Devils kept that from happening, tough L for the Ducks.
Top 25
Handled their business
(1) Lousiana State, (2) Ohio State, (4) Georgia, (5) Alabama, (7) Utah, (10) Minnesota, (12) Wisconsin, (13) Michigan, (14) Baylor, (15) Auburn, (16) Notre Dame, (17) Iowa, (18) Memphis, (20) Boise State, (21) Oklahoma State, (23) Southern Cal, (24) Appalachian State
Won but did not impress
(9) Oklahoma. Wasn't that long ago that I was crafting the argument for OU in the playoff, now they're squeaking by TCU. That defense is not top tier even if that offense is.
(19) Cincinnati. I keep waiting for Cincy to do...something interesting. They're good enough to hang around the fringes of the poll by getting by on a flimsy schedule. They're getting W's and that's not insignificant but I'm not blown away by UC.
(22) Iowa State. Meh. Iowa State's whole identity is catching people off guard but how long can that work?
Not so good
(6) Oregon. Offense never got going.
(25) Southern Methodist. Feels like they had Navy in hand, but they did not. Not so good.
Bad beat
(8) Penn State. Game effort but they're not as good as the Buckeyes this season.
Next week's interesting matches:
(1) Ohio State @ (13) Michigan (still a big game, a big opportunity for the Wolverines (re: Coach Harbaugh) to get a signature W)
(5) Alabama @ (15) Auburn (I'm not giving Auburn much of a chance but I'm just trying to give Auburn something to fight for)
(12) Wisconsin @ (8) Minnesota (who had this game circled at the start of the season? I think UM is actually pretty good and this is a great chance for them)
(7) Oklahoma @ (21) Oklahoma State (OU ought to blow them out but that defense is giving OSU a great shot here)
Thursday, November 14, 2019
2019-20 NCAA Football (Week 11)
Games I saw some of:
(2) LSU 46-41 (3) Alabama
Wow! I thought LSU was the better team throughout, Bama played well in the 2nd half but I was confident LSU would hold on. Burrow was a stud down the stretch, Edwards-Helaire was making plays all over the place, still not used to seeing LSU with an offense! Alabama made some wildly out of character undisciplined mistakes (Tua's phantom fumble, botched punt, dumb penalty negated an interception, the interception and TD right before halftime) that pretty much dug a hole they couldn't get back out of. Najee Harris was great in the 2nd half, the only reason they stayed in it as long as they did. Great W for LSU, the path to the playoff is ahead; and a tough L for Alabama, I suppose they can hang around the playoff talk but I don't see a path for them (the Pac-12 is the real winner here).
(4) Penn State 26-31 (17) Minnesota
Hey, man, Minnesota was good! That bomb up the sidelines right at the end of the 3rd quarter was a baller play and Penn State did not see it coming. Minnesota made plays on both sides of the ball, avoided mistakes and got it done running the ball. I expected Penn State to play better and even to pull it out late, but their passing attack was not happening. Penn State feels back to being a reliably good program year in/year out and this season is another step forward. Good W for Minnesota--technically still alive in the playoff discussion, but they'd need to win at Iowa, Wisconsin and then beat the Buckeyes in the B-10 final, not likely but hey, if they pull all that off, I'm cool with them playing Clemson.
Top 25
Handled their business
(1) Ohio State, (2) Louisiana State, (5) Clemson, (6) Georgia, (10) Florida, (13) Wisconsin, (15) Notre Dame, (17) Minnesota, (20) Cincinnati, (25) Southern Methodist
Won but did not impress
(9) Oklahoma. Why is Oklahoma playing close games? That offense should be wearing opponents out, how is it that the Sooners keep giving up so many points?
(12) Baylor. Triple OT to beat a TCU team that couldn't score? Kinda weak, man.
(22) Boise State. I dunno: is stealing a W late in Wyoming something a ranked team does?
Bad beat
(3) Alabama. Played reasonably well and still never felt in the game...weird to see Alabama have a game like that
(4) Penn State. I thought they'd maul Minnesota, but they never got going. Credit Minnesota, man, they looked smart and hungry all over the field. Another close-but-no-cigar season for the Nittany Lions.
(16) Kansas State. Going to Austin right as you're getting some favorable momentum is tough. Got off to a good start but couldn't quite save it at the end. I'm calling that a bad beat because Kansas State probably shouldn't be 16th anyway.
(18) Iowa. Going on the road to Wisconsin felt like it could be a steal but the Badgers are still the Badgers.
Not good
(19) Wake Forest. Yeech! Straight housed in the 2nd half to VaTech.
Next week's interesting matchups:
(23) Navy @ (16) Notre Dame (Navy'll give the Irish a game: they'll run the ball, keep it low scoring, see if they can't steal one late)
(4) Georgia @ (12) Auburn (I think UGA is better, we'll see if Auburn has any fight left in 'em)
(8) Minnesota @ (20) Iowa (I think Minnesota is pretty good but Iowa won't be an easy W)
(10) Oklahoma @ (13) Baylor (two teams with great offense and zero defense...hmmmm, take the over!)
(2) LSU 46-41 (3) Alabama
Wow! I thought LSU was the better team throughout, Bama played well in the 2nd half but I was confident LSU would hold on. Burrow was a stud down the stretch, Edwards-Helaire was making plays all over the place, still not used to seeing LSU with an offense! Alabama made some wildly out of character undisciplined mistakes (Tua's phantom fumble, botched punt, dumb penalty negated an interception, the interception and TD right before halftime) that pretty much dug a hole they couldn't get back out of. Najee Harris was great in the 2nd half, the only reason they stayed in it as long as they did. Great W for LSU, the path to the playoff is ahead; and a tough L for Alabama, I suppose they can hang around the playoff talk but I don't see a path for them (the Pac-12 is the real winner here).
(4) Penn State 26-31 (17) Minnesota
Hey, man, Minnesota was good! That bomb up the sidelines right at the end of the 3rd quarter was a baller play and Penn State did not see it coming. Minnesota made plays on both sides of the ball, avoided mistakes and got it done running the ball. I expected Penn State to play better and even to pull it out late, but their passing attack was not happening. Penn State feels back to being a reliably good program year in/year out and this season is another step forward. Good W for Minnesota--technically still alive in the playoff discussion, but they'd need to win at Iowa, Wisconsin and then beat the Buckeyes in the B-10 final, not likely but hey, if they pull all that off, I'm cool with them playing Clemson.
Top 25
Handled their business
(1) Ohio State, (2) Louisiana State, (5) Clemson, (6) Georgia, (10) Florida, (13) Wisconsin, (15) Notre Dame, (17) Minnesota, (20) Cincinnati, (25) Southern Methodist
Won but did not impress
(9) Oklahoma. Why is Oklahoma playing close games? That offense should be wearing opponents out, how is it that the Sooners keep giving up so many points?
(12) Baylor. Triple OT to beat a TCU team that couldn't score? Kinda weak, man.
(22) Boise State. I dunno: is stealing a W late in Wyoming something a ranked team does?
Bad beat
(3) Alabama. Played reasonably well and still never felt in the game...weird to see Alabama have a game like that
(4) Penn State. I thought they'd maul Minnesota, but they never got going. Credit Minnesota, man, they looked smart and hungry all over the field. Another close-but-no-cigar season for the Nittany Lions.
(16) Kansas State. Going to Austin right as you're getting some favorable momentum is tough. Got off to a good start but couldn't quite save it at the end. I'm calling that a bad beat because Kansas State probably shouldn't be 16th anyway.
(18) Iowa. Going on the road to Wisconsin felt like it could be a steal but the Badgers are still the Badgers.
Not good
(19) Wake Forest. Yeech! Straight housed in the 2nd half to VaTech.
Next week's interesting matchups:
(23) Navy @ (16) Notre Dame (Navy'll give the Irish a game: they'll run the ball, keep it low scoring, see if they can't steal one late)
(4) Georgia @ (12) Auburn (I think UGA is better, we'll see if Auburn has any fight left in 'em)
(8) Minnesota @ (20) Iowa (I think Minnesota is pretty good but Iowa won't be an easy W)
(10) Oklahoma @ (13) Baylor (two teams with great offense and zero defense...hmmmm, take the over!)
Wednesday, November 6, 2019
2019-20 NCAA Football (Week 10)
Games I saw some of:
(8) Georgia 24-17 (6) Florida
Yeah, the score was close but I never thought Florida was gonna win. Georgia's offense always seemed more capable of grinding through field position than Florida, only a matter of time before that played out. Florida is a nice team but thy're 2nd tier this season (moving in the right direction, next year could be another step up). Georgia is good but that L to South Carolina is gonna doom them unless they beat Alabama or LSU in the SEC championship.
Top 25
Handled their business
(4) Clemson, (7) Oregon, (8) Georgia, (9), Utah, (11) Auburn, (14) Michigan, (21) Boise State, (22) Kansas State, (23) Wake Forest, (24) Memphis
Won but did not impress
(12) Baylor. Hmmm, they've been drubbing opponents for a while now but had to scramble to steal a W at home on a Thursday night to a so-so conference foe? Not impressive.
(16) Notre Dame. Coming back late to steal a W at home from Va Tech? What's going on in South Bend?
(17) Cincinnati. Shoot out on the road to a middling conference foe...is it a sign that they're dangerous or a sign that they're sloppy and lucky? I dunno.
Bad beat
(6) Florida. Good effort but they're just not as good as Georgia this year.
(15) SMU. Felt like they were on the upswing but going on the road to an also-rising conference foe is a tough way to go.
Not so good
(20) Appalachian State. Losing at home is not good.
The official top 6 came out this weekend (and for some reason we're all supposed to care). So here it is:
1) Ohio State
2) Louisiana State
3) Alabama
4) Penn State
5) Clemson
6) Georgia
We're supposed to be stunned that Clemson fell to 5th place but that's not a big deal because one of OSU/Penn State will be eliminated and one of LSU/Alabama will be eliminated, too--which just highlights how not important this poll is right here right now. I'm cool with all of this. I really do think that Ohio State and LSU are in the conversation with Bama and Clemson, so the Buckeyes finishing #1 would not be any kind of travesty. I'd be surprised if Penn State beat Ohio State and I'd be surprised if the winner of LSU/Alabama lost to Georgia (or Florida) in the SEC championship. And I'd be blown away if Clemson lost to any of the leftovers on their schedule.
So for now Penn State and Georgia have their chances to play their way in and if the Pac-12 winner (either Oregon or Utah) goes without a loss they'd be in the talk, too. But otherwise Ohio State, Clemson and the winner of LSU/Alabama are in, along with either Oregon/Utah or possibly the loser of Alabama/LSU.
Next week's interesting matches:
(4) Penn State @ (17) Minnesota (another nice test for the Nittany Lions, great opportunity for Minnesota to get a big W)
(2) LSU @ (3) Alabama (okay, here we go, the game we've been waiting for)
(18) Iowa @ (13) Wisconsin (not as interesting as it could've been, feels like a tidying up of the second tier of the Big Ten)
(8) Georgia 24-17 (6) Florida
Yeah, the score was close but I never thought Florida was gonna win. Georgia's offense always seemed more capable of grinding through field position than Florida, only a matter of time before that played out. Florida is a nice team but thy're 2nd tier this season (moving in the right direction, next year could be another step up). Georgia is good but that L to South Carolina is gonna doom them unless they beat Alabama or LSU in the SEC championship.
Top 25
Handled their business
(4) Clemson, (7) Oregon, (8) Georgia, (9), Utah, (11) Auburn, (14) Michigan, (21) Boise State, (22) Kansas State, (23) Wake Forest, (24) Memphis
Won but did not impress
(12) Baylor. Hmmm, they've been drubbing opponents for a while now but had to scramble to steal a W at home on a Thursday night to a so-so conference foe? Not impressive.
(16) Notre Dame. Coming back late to steal a W at home from Va Tech? What's going on in South Bend?
(17) Cincinnati. Shoot out on the road to a middling conference foe...is it a sign that they're dangerous or a sign that they're sloppy and lucky? I dunno.
Bad beat
(6) Florida. Good effort but they're just not as good as Georgia this year.
(15) SMU. Felt like they were on the upswing but going on the road to an also-rising conference foe is a tough way to go.
Not so good
(20) Appalachian State. Losing at home is not good.
The official top 6 came out this weekend (and for some reason we're all supposed to care). So here it is:
1) Ohio State
2) Louisiana State
3) Alabama
4) Penn State
5) Clemson
6) Georgia
We're supposed to be stunned that Clemson fell to 5th place but that's not a big deal because one of OSU/Penn State will be eliminated and one of LSU/Alabama will be eliminated, too--which just highlights how not important this poll is right here right now. I'm cool with all of this. I really do think that Ohio State and LSU are in the conversation with Bama and Clemson, so the Buckeyes finishing #1 would not be any kind of travesty. I'd be surprised if Penn State beat Ohio State and I'd be surprised if the winner of LSU/Alabama lost to Georgia (or Florida) in the SEC championship. And I'd be blown away if Clemson lost to any of the leftovers on their schedule.
So for now Penn State and Georgia have their chances to play their way in and if the Pac-12 winner (either Oregon or Utah) goes without a loss they'd be in the talk, too. But otherwise Ohio State, Clemson and the winner of LSU/Alabama are in, along with either Oregon/Utah or possibly the loser of Alabama/LSU.
Next week's interesting matches:
(4) Penn State @ (17) Minnesota (another nice test for the Nittany Lions, great opportunity for Minnesota to get a big W)
(2) LSU @ (3) Alabama (okay, here we go, the game we've been waiting for)
(18) Iowa @ (13) Wisconsin (not as interesting as it could've been, feels like a tidying up of the second tier of the Big Ten)
Wednesday, October 30, 2019
2019-20 NCAA Football (Week 9)
Games I saw some of:
(9) Auburn 20-23 (2) LSU
The score looks close and it was tied at halftime, but I thought LSU was the better team all the way through. I expected them to take off in the 2nd half and they did, making it look like a victory that Auburn was able to tie it by the half. Auburn is good but they're out of the SEC race now (but I'd hate to be the upstart small conference team that meets them in a bowl). LSU is for real, man, we'll see when they meet Alabama in a coupla weeks. Ahhh, this college football season has managed to pony up at least one good size match each week, nice to see the stakes are still rising this deep into the season.
(13) Wisconsin 7-38 (3) Ohio State
Buckeyes, too, are for real, feels like Bama and Clemson have some competition this year for the first time in ages (I would've included Oklahoma, too, but oh well). Sloppy conditions kept this game for a while--seems like they should've favored the Badgers, too--but once the Buckeyes got going, they dominated with ease. Wisconsin (like, say, Auburn) is a top quality 2nd tier team but not good enough to roll with the tough guys. Ohio State, on the other hand, seems tightened up on both sides of the ball: a disciplined defense that doesn't get beat and an offense that doesn't make mistakes and makes the most of chances (if perhaps a little streaky). Not ready to put them at #1 just yet but it's in front of them.
(5) Oklahoma 41-48 Kansas State
When the score went by and K State was up 41-24, I did a double take and was like, 'wait, what?' Nope not a typo. So I turned it on in the 3rd quarter and, man, Oklahoma's defense (that I just started to come around) couldn't stop an old man running up hill! Anything K State wanted to do, they did with ease: up the middle, pass to the flat, connecting on 3rd and long, QB sneaks--whatever they wanted! Indeed, they were one lucky stop near midfield (with about 8 minutes left) from really blowing the doors off Oklahoma, their offense pulled up after that, but they could've (and should've!) kept the beatdown going. OU made a game effort down the stretch but they were too far behind to make it work. Outside of the Georgia-Florida winning knocking Alabama (or will it be LSU?), I don't see how OU gets back into the playoff. As for K State, I've been to Manhattan, Kansas, and I'm here to report that beating Oklahoma is all they're gonna talk about for the next coupla years.
Top 25
Handled their business:
(1) Alabama, (2) Louisiana State, (3) Ohio State, (4) Clemson, (6) Penn State, (11) Oregon, (12) Utah, (16) Southern Methodist, (17) Minnesota, (19) Michigan, (20) Iowa, (21) Appalachian State
Bad beat:
(9) Auburn. Yeah, both of these squads are nice 2nd tier teams, I can see them meeting each other in a bowl. But they're not with the elites, not this year.
(13) Wisconsin.
Not good:
(5) Oklahoma. Oh, that defense was a sieve! Damn shame, I thought this squad was going deep this year.
(8) Notre Dame. I didn't see much of this (still baseball season for one last weekend) but it appears that Michigan controlled easily throughout then took 'em to the brick oven in the 4th quarter. After Michigan's mostly mediocre performance this season, for Notre Dame to get so thoroughly whipped was a surprise to me. They'd need a lot of crazy upsets to get themselves back into the playoff talk.
(15) Texas. Well, it is worth noting that my favorable opinion of UT came from their spunky efforts in losses rather than how they looked in their W's. I suspect they're still an edge of top 25 kinda team, they'll get a nice bowl game this year.
(23) Iowa State. Yeah, conference loss at home should pretty much remove them from the top 25 for the rest of the season.
(24) Arizona State. Nice defense, no offense. They're the kinda team that doesn't get blown out but loses a lot of close ones.
Next week's intriguing matches:
(8) Georgia @ (6) Florida (okay, this game is back on; figured Florida would take this one but I think Georgia has a better chance of coming up big in the SEC final)
(7) Oregon @ Southern Cal (I think the Ducks are the better team but conference road games in prime time can always go sideways)
(15) SMU @ (24) Memphis (ehh, could be fun)
(9) Auburn 20-23 (2) LSU
The score looks close and it was tied at halftime, but I thought LSU was the better team all the way through. I expected them to take off in the 2nd half and they did, making it look like a victory that Auburn was able to tie it by the half. Auburn is good but they're out of the SEC race now (but I'd hate to be the upstart small conference team that meets them in a bowl). LSU is for real, man, we'll see when they meet Alabama in a coupla weeks. Ahhh, this college football season has managed to pony up at least one good size match each week, nice to see the stakes are still rising this deep into the season.
(13) Wisconsin 7-38 (3) Ohio State
Buckeyes, too, are for real, feels like Bama and Clemson have some competition this year for the first time in ages (I would've included Oklahoma, too, but oh well). Sloppy conditions kept this game for a while--seems like they should've favored the Badgers, too--but once the Buckeyes got going, they dominated with ease. Wisconsin (like, say, Auburn) is a top quality 2nd tier team but not good enough to roll with the tough guys. Ohio State, on the other hand, seems tightened up on both sides of the ball: a disciplined defense that doesn't get beat and an offense that doesn't make mistakes and makes the most of chances (if perhaps a little streaky). Not ready to put them at #1 just yet but it's in front of them.
(5) Oklahoma 41-48 Kansas State
When the score went by and K State was up 41-24, I did a double take and was like, 'wait, what?' Nope not a typo. So I turned it on in the 3rd quarter and, man, Oklahoma's defense (that I just started to come around) couldn't stop an old man running up hill! Anything K State wanted to do, they did with ease: up the middle, pass to the flat, connecting on 3rd and long, QB sneaks--whatever they wanted! Indeed, they were one lucky stop near midfield (with about 8 minutes left) from really blowing the doors off Oklahoma, their offense pulled up after that, but they could've (and should've!) kept the beatdown going. OU made a game effort down the stretch but they were too far behind to make it work. Outside of the Georgia-Florida winning knocking Alabama (or will it be LSU?), I don't see how OU gets back into the playoff. As for K State, I've been to Manhattan, Kansas, and I'm here to report that beating Oklahoma is all they're gonna talk about for the next coupla years.
Top 25
Handled their business:
(1) Alabama, (2) Louisiana State, (3) Ohio State, (4) Clemson, (6) Penn State, (11) Oregon, (12) Utah, (16) Southern Methodist, (17) Minnesota, (19) Michigan, (20) Iowa, (21) Appalachian State
Bad beat:
(9) Auburn. Yeah, both of these squads are nice 2nd tier teams, I can see them meeting each other in a bowl. But they're not with the elites, not this year.
(13) Wisconsin.
Not good:
(5) Oklahoma. Oh, that defense was a sieve! Damn shame, I thought this squad was going deep this year.
(8) Notre Dame. I didn't see much of this (still baseball season for one last weekend) but it appears that Michigan controlled easily throughout then took 'em to the brick oven in the 4th quarter. After Michigan's mostly mediocre performance this season, for Notre Dame to get so thoroughly whipped was a surprise to me. They'd need a lot of crazy upsets to get themselves back into the playoff talk.
(15) Texas. Well, it is worth noting that my favorable opinion of UT came from their spunky efforts in losses rather than how they looked in their W's. I suspect they're still an edge of top 25 kinda team, they'll get a nice bowl game this year.
(23) Iowa State. Yeah, conference loss at home should pretty much remove them from the top 25 for the rest of the season.
(24) Arizona State. Nice defense, no offense. They're the kinda team that doesn't get blown out but loses a lot of close ones.
Next week's intriguing matches:
(8) Georgia @ (6) Florida (okay, this game is back on; figured Florida would take this one but I think Georgia has a better chance of coming up big in the SEC final)
(7) Oregon @ Southern Cal (I think the Ducks are the better team but conference road games in prime time can always go sideways)
(15) SMU @ (24) Memphis (ehh, could be fun)
2019 World Series (Game Seven)
Ahhhhh, okay, here we go. If you're only going to watch one baseball game this year, this is the one.
Game 1: Nats 5-4 Astros
Game 2: Nats 12-5 Astros
Game 3: Astros 4-1 Nats
Game 4: Astros 8-1 Nats
Game 5: Astros 7-1 Nats
Game 6: Nats 7-2 Astros
First time in US sports history where the road team has won each of the first six games (happened a few times over five games but never for six), does that end tonight? I didn't write this at the time but after Game Two it seemed to me that the Astros would win the next four games and we'd forget the early dominance of the Nats. My thinking was threefold: 1) I had the Astros in six and expected that schedule to hold; 2) the beatdown the Nats laid down in Game Two is one of those beatings that feels great at the time but was likely to be more motivational to the losing team rather than the winning one; 3) did the Nats think they were gonna beat Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander again? Well the Nats did get to Verlander a second time and held off defeat last night, even after going down in the 1st inning. Impressive.
You'd expect the home team to be the favorite but that doesn't seem to be the case this time around. That said, the Astros will have Cole available tonight to bolster what has been a spotty at best bullpen. The Nats are either hot or cold, if they can get to Zach Greinke early, they could run away with it. That said, I think runs will be hard to come by tonight and I'll stick with the Astros. Damn, I love baseball!
Game 1: Nats 5-4 Astros
Game 2: Nats 12-5 Astros
Game 3: Astros 4-1 Nats
Game 4: Astros 8-1 Nats
Game 5: Astros 7-1 Nats
Game 6: Nats 7-2 Astros
First time in US sports history where the road team has won each of the first six games (happened a few times over five games but never for six), does that end tonight? I didn't write this at the time but after Game Two it seemed to me that the Astros would win the next four games and we'd forget the early dominance of the Nats. My thinking was threefold: 1) I had the Astros in six and expected that schedule to hold; 2) the beatdown the Nats laid down in Game Two is one of those beatings that feels great at the time but was likely to be more motivational to the losing team rather than the winning one; 3) did the Nats think they were gonna beat Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander again? Well the Nats did get to Verlander a second time and held off defeat last night, even after going down in the 1st inning. Impressive.
You'd expect the home team to be the favorite but that doesn't seem to be the case this time around. That said, the Astros will have Cole available tonight to bolster what has been a spotty at best bullpen. The Nats are either hot or cold, if they can get to Zach Greinke early, they could run away with it. That said, I think runs will be hard to come by tonight and I'll stick with the Astros. Damn, I love baseball!
Wednesday, October 23, 2019
2019-20 NBA Predictions
Rookie of the Year -- Michael Porter Jr (Nuggets)
We haven't seen him since high school, so his skills and dynamism may be totally overrated. But if he can play (I suspect he can), he'll be starting out in the perfect place: a veteran team with a clear style and a great home court advantage. I think he's primed to be a contributor right away for a good team and he'll look good doing it and I think voters will be split on ROY by season's end.
Other candidates: Obviously Zion Williamson (Pelicans) is the easy choice here and I get that my pick has a good chance of looking real stupid by the end of the year. I think Zion is gonna be really good on an improving team and he'll be fun as hell to watch, but I think he'll have restricted minutes/usage and now the report is that he's already out for 6 weeks to start the season, which throws off what I thought his season would be: I suspect by season's end he won't be quite the dynamo we're expecting. Tyler Herro (Heat) tore it up in pre-season and, like Porter, looks to slide nicely into a ready made rotation but I just don't think the Heat are going to be exciting enough to carry him to the head of the vote. Ja Morant (Grizzlies) is gonna be great on a terrible team. Coby White (Bulls) could be the guy that propels the Bulls up the standings, but I'm not yet convinced. I can see Rui Hachimura (Wizards) and PJ Washington (Hornets) impressing the chattering classes by persevering through awful situations (but I don't see either of them actually winning). And don't forget about Nikaell Alexander-Walker (Pelicans), who looks like he might be the pleasant surprise of the season.
I think this year's rookie class is gonna be a good one and with the grand shift that took place last summer, the rooks look to play a big role throughout this topsy turvy season.
MVP -- Anthony Davis (Lakers)
Yeah, I took him last year but the only thing that held him back was his incredible lack of interest in playing for anyone other than the Lakers. Well...now he plays for the Lakers...problem solved, right? I think it is. I think he's ready to explode, I think Lebron is looking forward to finally have a teammate that can take over, I think the Laker faithful will take to him right away and I think Coach Vogel is a good fit to craft a supporting cast for him. Everything is set up for AD to have a big big big year and if so, I think the voters will have to give him the big prize (and as a fan I really want to see him play to his potential).
Other candidates: Giannis Antetokounpo (Bucks) is the reigning champ and might be even better this year, so I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him claim this award right away and put his fingerprints all over it. James Harden (Rockets) has been in my top 3 for MVP five straight seasons and he'll be there again, right? Nikola Jokic (Nuggets) and Joel Embiid (Sixers) will have their fans and both look set to have monster seasons but I think both are on teams too deep to rely solely on them. Steph Curry (Warriors) has the team completely on his shoulders and I think the Warriors will still be pretty good which could earn some votes but he probably won't get a lot of #1 votes.
Defensive Player of the Year -- Rudy Gobert (Jazz)
I actually kinda thought he wasn't that great last year but I think this season he'll be anchoring a really good team and he looks to be more of an offensive threat, too, and that should boost his already mighty efforts on the other end.
Other candidates: I can see Ben Simmons (Sixers) really shining out on the defensive end this season as he tries harder (and then recedes) on the offensive end. Patrick Beverley (Clippers) will get plenty of eyeballs and if he shines out, he'll get some votes. Draymond Green (Warriors) will lead the new-look Warriors and if they make the playoffs, he'll get votes (also seeing how he shepherds Willie Cauley-Stein and Omari Spellman into the defensive unit could be notable, as well).
6th Man -- Spencer Dinwiddie (Nets)
I dunno, man, this category seems harder than usual this year because with so much roster turnover this summer, it's hard to tell who will be starting and who will be shoring up the 2nd string. So though Dinwiddie has been a boon off the bench for the Nets in recent years--and may well be again coming in behind Kyrie Irving--he also could be in the starting lineup this year as the roster turnover necessitates putting experienced players out there first. We'll see.
Other candidates: Delon Wright (Mavs) looks to be the perfect fit to keep the Mavs' offense going while Luke and Porzingis rest up. Jaylen Brown (Celtics) got his big contract so maybe he'll be taking it easy, but I suspect he's coming into the season with a chip on his shoulder and if he does come off the bench, he might be in full monster mode on both ends. Jakob Poetl (Spurs) is kinda overlooked and he didn't get his extension, so he's got a lot more to play for and could have a really solid season in San Anton. Tyler Herro (Heat) will likely be coming off the bench and could be a big piece for the Heat hopes, especially down the stretch. Likewise for another rookie, Micheal Porter Jr (Nuggets), who will be playing against 2nd stringers for the most part and could find a lot of opportunities for himself. Throw in Nikaell Alexander-Walker (Pelicans) as another rookie who might impress off the bench.
Most Improved -- Lonzo Ball (Pelicans)
Now that he's out from under Lebron's shadow and his father's shadow and the hometown LA shadow, we'll see how he plays in the light. New Orleans needs him to be good--not great--and the ensemble around him will be absorbing a lot of the pressure and delivering a lot of fun, which would seem to be the perfect environment for finally reaching his potential.
Other candidates: Gordon Hayward (Celtics) pretty much has this award on his mantelpiece already, right? Anfernee Simons (Blazers) will finally show us whether he's worth all the hype. Bam Adebayo (Heat) should get an expanded role now that Whiteside has moved on. Caris LaVert (Nets) should be a popular choice for this, he looks to have a big year. Dejounte Murray (Spurs) is a good choice here, ready to bust out after a year on the mend (or perhaps he'll fit better here next year). Lauri Markennen (Bulls) is set to have a good bounce back season. Kelly Oubre (Suns) isn't likely to get votes but I can see him putting up bigger numbers than he has yet in his career. Jabari Parker (Hawks) could be a good fit on the young Hawks. Maxi Kleber (Mavs) might be a perfect fit with the Luka/Porzingis combo. Luke Kennard (Pistons) is ready to take a leap (or be out Detroit by the end of next summer). Does Mike Conley (Jazz) qualify here?
Coach of the Year -- Mike Malone (Nuggets)/Brett Brown (Sixers)
I got the Nuggets and Sixers finishing 1st in their conferences and that alone will get them major consideration for this award. If Malone deftly handles his rotation and gets the #1 seed in the West, he'll deserve it. And after years of struggling, I'm glad the Sixers held on to Brown now that the team is finally poised to maximize their potential; if so, voters that have long derided Brown may be forced to hand him the award.
Other candidates: If Frank Vogel (Lakers) pulls together a defensive mindset that allows Lebron and AD enough room to focus on offense and propel the Lakers up the table, he'll get a lot of votes (if not, he'll probably be looking for a job next summer). Curious to see if Mike D'antoni (Rockets) becomes a beloved figure in the league now that he's dealing with a new two-headed monster on the floor and a GM that is under the microscope--all without a contract extension and lame duck status. Quin Snyder (Jazz) has long been much admired by the literati and if the Jazz make the leap everyone is predicting, then he'll be a good choice for this. If Nick Nurse (Raptors) gets his team back in line for a deep playoff run, then he'll be ranked among the elite coaches in the league.
Executive of the Year -- Arturas Karnisovas (Nuggets)/Jon Horst (Bucks)
I think the Nuggets finish 1st in the West and the Bucks finish a close 2nd in the East and I think these two GM's have put enough of their own stamp on their teams--and they're totally uncontroversial!--so I just see these two sucking up all the votes.
This could be a really awkward award this year: is anyone voting for Darryl Morey (Rockets) or Rob Pelinka (Lakers)? Or does everyone rush to support Morey or vindicate Pelinka? Do we all think that Elton Brand (Sixers) inherited too much of his talent or are we tired of thinking Danny Ainge (Celtics) is a genius? Does Masai Ujiri (Raptors) break through or do we all just lament his limited options? What do the voters do if Neil Olshay (Blazers) leads his team back into a home-playoff status? This category looks as open as any of them.
Regular Season (East/West)
Sixers/Nuggets
Bucks/Rockets
Raptors/Jazz
Celtics/Blazers
Pacers/Lakers
Heat/Clippers
Magic/Warriors
Pistons/Spurs
Playoffs
Sixers over Pistons (4)/Nuggets over Spurs (5)
Bucks over Magic (5)/Rockets over Warriors (7)
Raptors over Heat (7)/Clippers over Jazz (6)
Celtics over Pacers (4)/Lakers over Blazers (6)
Sixers over Celtics (7)/Nuggets over Lakers (7)
Bucks over Raptors (6)/Clippers over Rockets (7)
Bucks over Sixers (7)/Clippers over Nuggets (6)
Clippers over Bucks (7)
(Dang, man, I just took the Clippers to win it all...)
Okay, season foretold. Try to look surprised when all this stuff happens exactly as I told you it would.
We haven't seen him since high school, so his skills and dynamism may be totally overrated. But if he can play (I suspect he can), he'll be starting out in the perfect place: a veteran team with a clear style and a great home court advantage. I think he's primed to be a contributor right away for a good team and he'll look good doing it and I think voters will be split on ROY by season's end.
Other candidates: Obviously Zion Williamson (Pelicans) is the easy choice here and I get that my pick has a good chance of looking real stupid by the end of the year. I think Zion is gonna be really good on an improving team and he'll be fun as hell to watch, but I think he'll have restricted minutes/usage and now the report is that he's already out for 6 weeks to start the season, which throws off what I thought his season would be: I suspect by season's end he won't be quite the dynamo we're expecting. Tyler Herro (Heat) tore it up in pre-season and, like Porter, looks to slide nicely into a ready made rotation but I just don't think the Heat are going to be exciting enough to carry him to the head of the vote. Ja Morant (Grizzlies) is gonna be great on a terrible team. Coby White (Bulls) could be the guy that propels the Bulls up the standings, but I'm not yet convinced. I can see Rui Hachimura (Wizards) and PJ Washington (Hornets) impressing the chattering classes by persevering through awful situations (but I don't see either of them actually winning). And don't forget about Nikaell Alexander-Walker (Pelicans), who looks like he might be the pleasant surprise of the season.
I think this year's rookie class is gonna be a good one and with the grand shift that took place last summer, the rooks look to play a big role throughout this topsy turvy season.
MVP -- Anthony Davis (Lakers)
Yeah, I took him last year but the only thing that held him back was his incredible lack of interest in playing for anyone other than the Lakers. Well...now he plays for the Lakers...problem solved, right? I think it is. I think he's ready to explode, I think Lebron is looking forward to finally have a teammate that can take over, I think the Laker faithful will take to him right away and I think Coach Vogel is a good fit to craft a supporting cast for him. Everything is set up for AD to have a big big big year and if so, I think the voters will have to give him the big prize (and as a fan I really want to see him play to his potential).
Other candidates: Giannis Antetokounpo (Bucks) is the reigning champ and might be even better this year, so I wouldn't be surprised at all to see him claim this award right away and put his fingerprints all over it. James Harden (Rockets) has been in my top 3 for MVP five straight seasons and he'll be there again, right? Nikola Jokic (Nuggets) and Joel Embiid (Sixers) will have their fans and both look set to have monster seasons but I think both are on teams too deep to rely solely on them. Steph Curry (Warriors) has the team completely on his shoulders and I think the Warriors will still be pretty good which could earn some votes but he probably won't get a lot of #1 votes.
Defensive Player of the Year -- Rudy Gobert (Jazz)
I actually kinda thought he wasn't that great last year but I think this season he'll be anchoring a really good team and he looks to be more of an offensive threat, too, and that should boost his already mighty efforts on the other end.
Other candidates: I can see Ben Simmons (Sixers) really shining out on the defensive end this season as he tries harder (and then recedes) on the offensive end. Patrick Beverley (Clippers) will get plenty of eyeballs and if he shines out, he'll get some votes. Draymond Green (Warriors) will lead the new-look Warriors and if they make the playoffs, he'll get votes (also seeing how he shepherds Willie Cauley-Stein and Omari Spellman into the defensive unit could be notable, as well).
6th Man -- Spencer Dinwiddie (Nets)
I dunno, man, this category seems harder than usual this year because with so much roster turnover this summer, it's hard to tell who will be starting and who will be shoring up the 2nd string. So though Dinwiddie has been a boon off the bench for the Nets in recent years--and may well be again coming in behind Kyrie Irving--he also could be in the starting lineup this year as the roster turnover necessitates putting experienced players out there first. We'll see.
Other candidates: Delon Wright (Mavs) looks to be the perfect fit to keep the Mavs' offense going while Luke and Porzingis rest up. Jaylen Brown (Celtics) got his big contract so maybe he'll be taking it easy, but I suspect he's coming into the season with a chip on his shoulder and if he does come off the bench, he might be in full monster mode on both ends. Jakob Poetl (Spurs) is kinda overlooked and he didn't get his extension, so he's got a lot more to play for and could have a really solid season in San Anton. Tyler Herro (Heat) will likely be coming off the bench and could be a big piece for the Heat hopes, especially down the stretch. Likewise for another rookie, Micheal Porter Jr (Nuggets), who will be playing against 2nd stringers for the most part and could find a lot of opportunities for himself. Throw in Nikaell Alexander-Walker (Pelicans) as another rookie who might impress off the bench.
Most Improved -- Lonzo Ball (Pelicans)
Now that he's out from under Lebron's shadow and his father's shadow and the hometown LA shadow, we'll see how he plays in the light. New Orleans needs him to be good--not great--and the ensemble around him will be absorbing a lot of the pressure and delivering a lot of fun, which would seem to be the perfect environment for finally reaching his potential.
Other candidates: Gordon Hayward (Celtics) pretty much has this award on his mantelpiece already, right? Anfernee Simons (Blazers) will finally show us whether he's worth all the hype. Bam Adebayo (Heat) should get an expanded role now that Whiteside has moved on. Caris LaVert (Nets) should be a popular choice for this, he looks to have a big year. Dejounte Murray (Spurs) is a good choice here, ready to bust out after a year on the mend (or perhaps he'll fit better here next year). Lauri Markennen (Bulls) is set to have a good bounce back season. Kelly Oubre (Suns) isn't likely to get votes but I can see him putting up bigger numbers than he has yet in his career. Jabari Parker (Hawks) could be a good fit on the young Hawks. Maxi Kleber (Mavs) might be a perfect fit with the Luka/Porzingis combo. Luke Kennard (Pistons) is ready to take a leap (or be out Detroit by the end of next summer). Does Mike Conley (Jazz) qualify here?
Coach of the Year -- Mike Malone (Nuggets)/Brett Brown (Sixers)
I got the Nuggets and Sixers finishing 1st in their conferences and that alone will get them major consideration for this award. If Malone deftly handles his rotation and gets the #1 seed in the West, he'll deserve it. And after years of struggling, I'm glad the Sixers held on to Brown now that the team is finally poised to maximize their potential; if so, voters that have long derided Brown may be forced to hand him the award.
Other candidates: If Frank Vogel (Lakers) pulls together a defensive mindset that allows Lebron and AD enough room to focus on offense and propel the Lakers up the table, he'll get a lot of votes (if not, he'll probably be looking for a job next summer). Curious to see if Mike D'antoni (Rockets) becomes a beloved figure in the league now that he's dealing with a new two-headed monster on the floor and a GM that is under the microscope--all without a contract extension and lame duck status. Quin Snyder (Jazz) has long been much admired by the literati and if the Jazz make the leap everyone is predicting, then he'll be a good choice for this. If Nick Nurse (Raptors) gets his team back in line for a deep playoff run, then he'll be ranked among the elite coaches in the league.
Executive of the Year -- Arturas Karnisovas (Nuggets)/Jon Horst (Bucks)
I think the Nuggets finish 1st in the West and the Bucks finish a close 2nd in the East and I think these two GM's have put enough of their own stamp on their teams--and they're totally uncontroversial!--so I just see these two sucking up all the votes.
This could be a really awkward award this year: is anyone voting for Darryl Morey (Rockets) or Rob Pelinka (Lakers)? Or does everyone rush to support Morey or vindicate Pelinka? Do we all think that Elton Brand (Sixers) inherited too much of his talent or are we tired of thinking Danny Ainge (Celtics) is a genius? Does Masai Ujiri (Raptors) break through or do we all just lament his limited options? What do the voters do if Neil Olshay (Blazers) leads his team back into a home-playoff status? This category looks as open as any of them.
Regular Season (East/West)
Sixers/Nuggets
Bucks/Rockets
Raptors/Jazz
Celtics/Blazers
Pacers/Lakers
Heat/Clippers
Magic/Warriors
Pistons/Spurs
Playoffs
Sixers over Pistons (4)/Nuggets over Spurs (5)
Bucks over Magic (5)/Rockets over Warriors (7)
Raptors over Heat (7)/Clippers over Jazz (6)
Celtics over Pacers (4)/Lakers over Blazers (6)
Sixers over Celtics (7)/Nuggets over Lakers (7)
Bucks over Raptors (6)/Clippers over Rockets (7)
Bucks over Sixers (7)/Clippers over Nuggets (6)
Clippers over Bucks (7)
(Dang, man, I just took the Clippers to win it all...)
Okay, season foretold. Try to look surprised when all this stuff happens exactly as I told you it would.
2019-20 NBA Pre-season (Atlantic Division)
Sixers
Out:
Jimmy Butler, JJ Reddick, TJ McConnell, Boban Marjanovic, Amir Johnson, Justin Patton, Greg Monroe, Demetrius Jackson
I know I'm the only one: but TJ McConnell did so much for this team over the last few years, I'm not saying they can't find a solid 2nd string PG to roll with, but I suspect they're gonna miss McConnell more than they realize. And, in further contradistinction, I think they're better off without all the other guys. I thought Butler was more distracting than useful to them last year, I thought Reddick was wildly overrated in his Philly sojourn, Boban is kinda funny to look at but doesn't do much in his 10 minutes per night, they paid Amir Johnson insane amounts of money, Monroe was utterly invisible, Patton never did play (although the Sixers tend to like rookies that live in the hospital) and I didn't even know they had Demetrius Jackson. So, in short, I think McConnell is the big loss and the rest are addition by subtraction.
Re-signed:
Mike Scott (2yr/$9.8m), Furkan Korkmaz (2yr/$3.3m), Tobias Harris (5yr/$180m), James Ennis (2yr/$4m), Shake Milton (4yr/$5m), Ben Simmons (extension; 5yr/$170m), Zhaire Smith (team exercised option; 1yr)
I like all these moves. At the that price point, Scott is a great energy guy off the bench. I've like what little I've seen of Korkmaz, I'm cool with keeping him on a low cost deal (although he never got time before, I don't see why he'd play now). I was a little surprised they kept Harris (I thought they'd push hard for Butler instead) but I like it because I think he and Simmons can be a great combo. I like Ennis, a really underrated contributor. Simmons can be maddening but he's totally worth the big money, I'm very cool with locking him up now. I haven't seen much of Milton or Zhaire but they're young (and cheap) enough to lock down.
In:
Josh Richardson (trade; 3yr/$32m), Al Horford (4yr/$109m), Kyle O'Quinn (1yr/$2m) Raul Neto (1yr/$1.7m), Trey Burke (1yr/$2m), Marial Shayok, 2020 Hawks 2nd rd pick, 2023 Hawks 2nd rd pick, 2024 Pistons 2nd rd pick
Richardson gives them gritty D on the perimeter. Horford brings an adult to set the offense and settle things down. O'Quinn is a nice big body down low that is a surprisingly good scorer off the bench. I like Neto (the poor man's McConnell) off the bench. Not sure I see the need for Trey Burke, but low-cost depth at the ball handler spot isn't a bad thing. I don't know Shayok.
Over/Under (54.5): I'm going over
I think this team is well put-together. They've got good size down low, good ball handling outside, and good defense all over the floor. Good mix of youth and vets, a coach who's been around, the right atmosphere at the right time, this team is ready to blast off. To me, the one worry is that Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid are flakey weirdos who might have no clue what they're doing; but if they just show up (and I think they will) I think the rest of the Sixer organization is in good position to serve them. Once this team really gets going, they could be a monster by the end of the season. That said, the playoffs and the regular season are two different things and I'm not sure they're ready to win a championship, but I do think they're ready to take 1st place in the East.
Raptors
Out:
Eric Moreland, Jodie Meeks, Jordan Lloyd, Jeremy Lin, Kawhi Leonard, Danny Green
Losing Kawhi is arguably the largest loss of any team this off-season. He was brought in to win a championship and he did, so no hard feelings. The rest are fungible.
Re-signed:
Marc Gasol (exercise player option; 1yr/$25.6m), Patrick McCaw (2yr/$8m), OG Anunoby (team exercised option; 2yr/$6.1m), Kyle Lowry (extension; 1yr/$30m), Paskal Siakam (extension; 4yr/$130m)
This is an expensive, aging team but I think they ride it for one more year and begin the re-tool next summer. Well, actually, inking Siakam to a 4-year extension was the beginning of the re-tool--and it's off to a good start! Siakam was the bust-out player of last season and locking him up was the #1 priority for the Raptors. Picking up the option on Anunoby was a good move, too, as was extending Lowry for one more year (he's the face of your team, signing him now foregoes having to do it next summer or watching him walk away). Gasol picking up his option was predictable and though that $25m price tag is high, they just won a title, one big payday before he walks is good for everyone. I always kinda liked McCaw, he'll thicken up that 2nd string.
In:
Stanley Johnson (2yr/$7.4), Terence Davis (2yr/$2.4m), Matt Thomas (3yr/$4.2m), Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (1yr/$2.5m), Dewan Hernandez (3yr/$4.2m), Osahe Brissett (1yr)
Toronto has made good use of their bench over the years and these guys are bench thickeners. I'm not sure about Johnson but I think Hollis-Jefferson in particular can be a real defensive presence in their 2nd string.
Over/under (46.5): I'm going over
My thinking is this: the Raptors really don't have any moves to make, this is the team they've got, so they'll be riding it hard all year long. They may love the notion of shedding big salaries like Gasol or Ibaka, but they'd have to either take back the same money (why bother?) or absorb a bunch of new bodies (worth it if the right deal comes along, totally not worth it if not), so I think they're living off the afterglow of their championship for one more year, then shedding it all next summer. No reason to ease up on anyone, no reason to restrict minutes, no youngster getting a closer look, this coach has free reign to go to the whip hand from beginning to end and I think that's what they do. They're still a solid bunch, a prideful bunch, I think they play hard to the end and win more games than you think they're gonna (and then blow it up in the summer). Don't be shocked if they make a deep run in the playoffs, they're not as talented as some other teams but they do have the experience of being there, which no one else in the East has.
Celtics
Out:
Al Horford, Kyrie Irving, Jonathon Gibson, PJ Dozier, RJ Hunter, Shane Larkin, Marcus Morris, Terry Rozier, Aron Baynes, the rights to Ty Jerome, Guerschon Yabusele
Losing Horford hurts. Losing Kyrie feels like a weight off. Losing the others...meh. Baynes was a nice role player but hardly irreplaceable. Rozier was a nice player but everyone knew he wasn't worth the money he was going to command. I thought Morris gave them a toughness that they're gonna miss (though he also gave them a stupidity they're not going to miss). Larkin was good for minutes but not irreplaceable. I was always intrigued by Yabusele (the poor man's Zion, no?) but he never did much in that system. The others come and go.
Re-signed:
Brad Wanamaker (2yr/$5.1m), Daniel Theis (2yr/$10m), Jaysun Tatum (team exercised option; 2yr),
Good to wrap up Tatum. I actually kinda like Theis and Wanamaker is certainly on an affordable deal, so good moves, as well.
In:
Kemba Walker (4yr/$140m), Grant Williams (4yr/$4.8m guaranteed), Romeo Langford (2yr/$7.1m guaranteed), Carsen Edwards (3yr/$4.5m guaranteed), Vincent Poirier (2yr/$5.1m), Enes Kanter (2yr/$10m), Javonte Green (2yr/$2.4m), Tacko Fall, Tremont Waters, Suns 1st rd pick (unprotected in 2021--dang!)
I think Kemba is the perfect replacement for Kyrie and I think we're gonna see more playmaking from him than we've seen so far in his career--or at least that's what the Celtics are hoping for! If so, the Celtics should be much better than last year (though I have them 4th in the East again this year) and more dangerous in the post-season (where they completely ran out of gas last year). Williams and Langford and Edwards are intriguing youngsters, I think Kanter compliments Kemba well (though he does nothing to help their defense) and while I think Tacko has virtually no talent for the game of basketball, he seems like a really nice guy and that alone can be a positive force (especially for the fans).
Over/under (48.5): I'm going over
I kinda love everything about this team. Losing Horford hurts (but he is getting older and I thought he wore down badly last year in the playoffs), but shedding Kyrie for Kemba gives Coach Stevens a whole new grip on the locker room and the philosophy and I think it'll work wonders for the C's. Also, I think Kemba, Hayward, Tatum, Brown and even Robert Williams will be better than last season and that marginal improvement alone will make them a steadier, more solid team. I think this Celtics team can be really good this year and I wouldn't be surprised if they pulled an upset in the post-season because I think the top four in the East will be in a clump, each with their positives and negatives.
Nets
Out:
DeMarre Carroll, Ed Davis, Jared Dudley, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, D'Angelo Russell, Alan Williams, Allen Crabbe, Shabazz Napier, Treveon Graham, the rights to Aaron White and Nemanja Dangubic
I think the Nets are going to miss these guys more than they realize. This is the core of a team that made the playoffs last year and though they hit home runs in the off-season (if you consider grumpy Kyrie, hobbled Durant and old-ass Deandre as 'home runs'), they're letting go of a lot of offensive and defensive production here. If it works, no one will think twice about it; but if it doesn't...they might be looking for a new coach and/or GM next summer.
Re-signed:
Theo Pinson (2yr/$3.1m), Caris LaVert (3yr/$52.5m), Dzanan Musa (team exercised option; 2yr), Jarrett Allen (team exercised option; 2yr)
LaVert is the story here, he's set to have a growth spurt year and I think the Nets will need it. Pinson has yet to do anything in the league, Musa is intriguing but hasn't yet really molded into shape and I like Allen, I'm good with these moves.
In:
DeAndre Jordan (4yr/$40m), Kyrie Irving (4yr/$136.5m), Kevin Durant (4yr/$160m), Garrett Temple (2yr/$4.7m guaranteed), Wilson Chandler (1yr/$2.6m), David Nwaba (2yr/$3.5m), Nicolas Claxton (3yr/$4.2m), Henry Ellenson, 2021 Hawks 2nd rd pick, Warriors 2021 1st rd pick (top 20 protected)
I can live with the money for Deandre Jordan (who I think has descended into a wildly underrated state) but I'm not crazy about the length: I'd give him more money for fewer years. Kyrie is that thing you wish for but beware: he may be fool's gold. Obviously he's got talent but he's also a shit talking ball hog who may or may not be down with what's good for the team....I'm just sayin': he may be great or he may be a total pain in the ass, we'll just have to find out. I love nabbing Durant, injury or no, but they don't have him this year (no rush to bring him back regardless of a possible playoff run). Temple is nice, Chandler is okay (though serving a 25 game suspension), Nwaba is fine (though I don't see him as a perfect fit with Kyrie or LaVert), and I'm okay with Ellenson (he's on a 2-way but I expect he'll be in a Nets uni a lot this season). But after Kyrie and Durant, I'm not sure the new guys are pound-for-pound replacements for the old guys.
Over/under (43.5): I'm thinking under (waaay under)
I think this team struggles. There's a lot of turnover and no real leadership which I think empowers Kyrie way too much. If they fail to get W's early (which I think they will) then what happens when Kyrie turns melancholy? There's no Durant, there's no D'Angelo Russell, this team's best shot at leadership will have to come from LaVert and Dinwiddie--and what happens if/when their games clash with Kyrie's style? What happens if Coach Atkinson has to scream and yell for control (and he is legendary screamer)? They've jettisoned a lot of dudes that played a lot of minutes last year, leaving them a screaming coach, two young stars that may not be ready to lead, and a crabby captain that may throw in the towel when things go south. I'm just sayin': there's a lot that can go wrong here and not much that can go right--let's say Kyrie is in MVP talk, LaVert wins Most Improved, and Dinwiddie wins 6th Man...how far does that team go in the post-season? The best possible scenario for this season isn't really even that great, so this is a team with a low ceiling and a shockingly low floor. I don't see good things for the Nets this year.
Knicks
Out:
Emmanuel Mudiay, Henry Ellenson, Billy Garrett, Mario Hezonja, Isaiah Hicks, John Jenkins, DeAndre Jordan, Luke Kornet, Lance Thomas, Noah Vonleh
Meh. Easy come, easy go. The Knicks fancy themselves as a destination for free agents but that's like Lubbock, TX, thinking of itself as a great vacation spot.
Re-signed:
Damyean Dotson (guaranteed final year of contract)
Okay. I like Dotson, they may as well keep every remotely promising youngster they can.
In:
Bobby Portis (2yr/$30m), Elfrid Payton (2yr/$16m), Julius Randle (3yr/$58m), Taj Gibson (2yr/$20m), Wayne Ellington (2yr/$16m), Marcus Morris (1yr/$15m), Reggie Bullock (2yr/$8.2m), Ignas Brazdekis (2yr/$2.4m)
I kinda like these moves. It doesn't give them much of a team for the next two years, but it gives them the chance to be in a lot of trade talks and since the free agent pool next summer is going to be shockingly minimal (especially after the lollapalooza we had this summer), so they've invested in reasonably priced assets instead of holding cash. I'm okay with that. I like Randle and I think they got a good deal on him. Portis, Payton and Brazdekis are worth taking a look at. Taj, Ellington, Morris and Bullock are decent trade chips down the line. This team ain't going deep in the playoffs or nothing but I think these moves keep the Knicks relevant in potential roster moves for the next two seasons, so while they didn't get Kyrie and KD, I'm okay with these moves as a fallback.
Over/under (26.5): I'm going over
I think they've got enough veteran smarts to have a few hot streaks throughout the season. And I still believe in Mitchell Robinson, Kevin Knox and RJ Barrett, so there's enough percolating to score them some W's--especially the unexpected kind that pumps up the crowd. Sure, this team is gonna get pants-ed by the Sixers and the Raptors most nights, but every once in a while they'll steal a game from the Lakers or the Celtics or the Heat that no one saw coming--they'll be that kinda team. No, this Bad News Bears squad is not gonna make the playoffs or even be a reliably good team, but I think they'll garner more buzz than you think, so as Knicks teams go, I can see this year's model being something like 'beloved'.
Out:
Jimmy Butler, JJ Reddick, TJ McConnell, Boban Marjanovic, Amir Johnson, Justin Patton, Greg Monroe, Demetrius Jackson
I know I'm the only one: but TJ McConnell did so much for this team over the last few years, I'm not saying they can't find a solid 2nd string PG to roll with, but I suspect they're gonna miss McConnell more than they realize. And, in further contradistinction, I think they're better off without all the other guys. I thought Butler was more distracting than useful to them last year, I thought Reddick was wildly overrated in his Philly sojourn, Boban is kinda funny to look at but doesn't do much in his 10 minutes per night, they paid Amir Johnson insane amounts of money, Monroe was utterly invisible, Patton never did play (although the Sixers tend to like rookies that live in the hospital) and I didn't even know they had Demetrius Jackson. So, in short, I think McConnell is the big loss and the rest are addition by subtraction.
Re-signed:
Mike Scott (2yr/$9.8m), Furkan Korkmaz (2yr/$3.3m), Tobias Harris (5yr/$180m), James Ennis (2yr/$4m), Shake Milton (4yr/$5m), Ben Simmons (extension; 5yr/$170m), Zhaire Smith (team exercised option; 1yr)
I like all these moves. At the that price point, Scott is a great energy guy off the bench. I've like what little I've seen of Korkmaz, I'm cool with keeping him on a low cost deal (although he never got time before, I don't see why he'd play now). I was a little surprised they kept Harris (I thought they'd push hard for Butler instead) but I like it because I think he and Simmons can be a great combo. I like Ennis, a really underrated contributor. Simmons can be maddening but he's totally worth the big money, I'm very cool with locking him up now. I haven't seen much of Milton or Zhaire but they're young (and cheap) enough to lock down.
In:
Josh Richardson (trade; 3yr/$32m), Al Horford (4yr/$109m), Kyle O'Quinn (1yr/$2m) Raul Neto (1yr/$1.7m), Trey Burke (1yr/$2m), Marial Shayok, 2020 Hawks 2nd rd pick, 2023 Hawks 2nd rd pick, 2024 Pistons 2nd rd pick
Richardson gives them gritty D on the perimeter. Horford brings an adult to set the offense and settle things down. O'Quinn is a nice big body down low that is a surprisingly good scorer off the bench. I like Neto (the poor man's McConnell) off the bench. Not sure I see the need for Trey Burke, but low-cost depth at the ball handler spot isn't a bad thing. I don't know Shayok.
Over/Under (54.5): I'm going over
I think this team is well put-together. They've got good size down low, good ball handling outside, and good defense all over the floor. Good mix of youth and vets, a coach who's been around, the right atmosphere at the right time, this team is ready to blast off. To me, the one worry is that Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid are flakey weirdos who might have no clue what they're doing; but if they just show up (and I think they will) I think the rest of the Sixer organization is in good position to serve them. Once this team really gets going, they could be a monster by the end of the season. That said, the playoffs and the regular season are two different things and I'm not sure they're ready to win a championship, but I do think they're ready to take 1st place in the East.
Raptors
Out:
Eric Moreland, Jodie Meeks, Jordan Lloyd, Jeremy Lin, Kawhi Leonard, Danny Green
Losing Kawhi is arguably the largest loss of any team this off-season. He was brought in to win a championship and he did, so no hard feelings. The rest are fungible.
Re-signed:
Marc Gasol (exercise player option; 1yr/$25.6m), Patrick McCaw (2yr/$8m), OG Anunoby (team exercised option; 2yr/$6.1m), Kyle Lowry (extension; 1yr/$30m), Paskal Siakam (extension; 4yr/$130m)
This is an expensive, aging team but I think they ride it for one more year and begin the re-tool next summer. Well, actually, inking Siakam to a 4-year extension was the beginning of the re-tool--and it's off to a good start! Siakam was the bust-out player of last season and locking him up was the #1 priority for the Raptors. Picking up the option on Anunoby was a good move, too, as was extending Lowry for one more year (he's the face of your team, signing him now foregoes having to do it next summer or watching him walk away). Gasol picking up his option was predictable and though that $25m price tag is high, they just won a title, one big payday before he walks is good for everyone. I always kinda liked McCaw, he'll thicken up that 2nd string.
In:
Stanley Johnson (2yr/$7.4), Terence Davis (2yr/$2.4m), Matt Thomas (3yr/$4.2m), Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (1yr/$2.5m), Dewan Hernandez (3yr/$4.2m), Osahe Brissett (1yr)
Toronto has made good use of their bench over the years and these guys are bench thickeners. I'm not sure about Johnson but I think Hollis-Jefferson in particular can be a real defensive presence in their 2nd string.
Over/under (46.5): I'm going over
My thinking is this: the Raptors really don't have any moves to make, this is the team they've got, so they'll be riding it hard all year long. They may love the notion of shedding big salaries like Gasol or Ibaka, but they'd have to either take back the same money (why bother?) or absorb a bunch of new bodies (worth it if the right deal comes along, totally not worth it if not), so I think they're living off the afterglow of their championship for one more year, then shedding it all next summer. No reason to ease up on anyone, no reason to restrict minutes, no youngster getting a closer look, this coach has free reign to go to the whip hand from beginning to end and I think that's what they do. They're still a solid bunch, a prideful bunch, I think they play hard to the end and win more games than you think they're gonna (and then blow it up in the summer). Don't be shocked if they make a deep run in the playoffs, they're not as talented as some other teams but they do have the experience of being there, which no one else in the East has.
Celtics
Out:
Al Horford, Kyrie Irving, Jonathon Gibson, PJ Dozier, RJ Hunter, Shane Larkin, Marcus Morris, Terry Rozier, Aron Baynes, the rights to Ty Jerome, Guerschon Yabusele
Losing Horford hurts. Losing Kyrie feels like a weight off. Losing the others...meh. Baynes was a nice role player but hardly irreplaceable. Rozier was a nice player but everyone knew he wasn't worth the money he was going to command. I thought Morris gave them a toughness that they're gonna miss (though he also gave them a stupidity they're not going to miss). Larkin was good for minutes but not irreplaceable. I was always intrigued by Yabusele (the poor man's Zion, no?) but he never did much in that system. The others come and go.
Re-signed:
Brad Wanamaker (2yr/$5.1m), Daniel Theis (2yr/$10m), Jaysun Tatum (team exercised option; 2yr),
Good to wrap up Tatum. I actually kinda like Theis and Wanamaker is certainly on an affordable deal, so good moves, as well.
In:
Kemba Walker (4yr/$140m), Grant Williams (4yr/$4.8m guaranteed), Romeo Langford (2yr/$7.1m guaranteed), Carsen Edwards (3yr/$4.5m guaranteed), Vincent Poirier (2yr/$5.1m), Enes Kanter (2yr/$10m), Javonte Green (2yr/$2.4m), Tacko Fall, Tremont Waters, Suns 1st rd pick (unprotected in 2021--dang!)
I think Kemba is the perfect replacement for Kyrie and I think we're gonna see more playmaking from him than we've seen so far in his career--or at least that's what the Celtics are hoping for! If so, the Celtics should be much better than last year (though I have them 4th in the East again this year) and more dangerous in the post-season (where they completely ran out of gas last year). Williams and Langford and Edwards are intriguing youngsters, I think Kanter compliments Kemba well (though he does nothing to help their defense) and while I think Tacko has virtually no talent for the game of basketball, he seems like a really nice guy and that alone can be a positive force (especially for the fans).
Over/under (48.5): I'm going over
I kinda love everything about this team. Losing Horford hurts (but he is getting older and I thought he wore down badly last year in the playoffs), but shedding Kyrie for Kemba gives Coach Stevens a whole new grip on the locker room and the philosophy and I think it'll work wonders for the C's. Also, I think Kemba, Hayward, Tatum, Brown and even Robert Williams will be better than last season and that marginal improvement alone will make them a steadier, more solid team. I think this Celtics team can be really good this year and I wouldn't be surprised if they pulled an upset in the post-season because I think the top four in the East will be in a clump, each with their positives and negatives.
Nets
Out:
DeMarre Carroll, Ed Davis, Jared Dudley, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, D'Angelo Russell, Alan Williams, Allen Crabbe, Shabazz Napier, Treveon Graham, the rights to Aaron White and Nemanja Dangubic
I think the Nets are going to miss these guys more than they realize. This is the core of a team that made the playoffs last year and though they hit home runs in the off-season (if you consider grumpy Kyrie, hobbled Durant and old-ass Deandre as 'home runs'), they're letting go of a lot of offensive and defensive production here. If it works, no one will think twice about it; but if it doesn't...they might be looking for a new coach and/or GM next summer.
Re-signed:
Theo Pinson (2yr/$3.1m), Caris LaVert (3yr/$52.5m), Dzanan Musa (team exercised option; 2yr), Jarrett Allen (team exercised option; 2yr)
LaVert is the story here, he's set to have a growth spurt year and I think the Nets will need it. Pinson has yet to do anything in the league, Musa is intriguing but hasn't yet really molded into shape and I like Allen, I'm good with these moves.
In:
DeAndre Jordan (4yr/$40m), Kyrie Irving (4yr/$136.5m), Kevin Durant (4yr/$160m), Garrett Temple (2yr/$4.7m guaranteed), Wilson Chandler (1yr/$2.6m), David Nwaba (2yr/$3.5m), Nicolas Claxton (3yr/$4.2m), Henry Ellenson, 2021 Hawks 2nd rd pick, Warriors 2021 1st rd pick (top 20 protected)
I can live with the money for Deandre Jordan (who I think has descended into a wildly underrated state) but I'm not crazy about the length: I'd give him more money for fewer years. Kyrie is that thing you wish for but beware: he may be fool's gold. Obviously he's got talent but he's also a shit talking ball hog who may or may not be down with what's good for the team....I'm just sayin': he may be great or he may be a total pain in the ass, we'll just have to find out. I love nabbing Durant, injury or no, but they don't have him this year (no rush to bring him back regardless of a possible playoff run). Temple is nice, Chandler is okay (though serving a 25 game suspension), Nwaba is fine (though I don't see him as a perfect fit with Kyrie or LaVert), and I'm okay with Ellenson (he's on a 2-way but I expect he'll be in a Nets uni a lot this season). But after Kyrie and Durant, I'm not sure the new guys are pound-for-pound replacements for the old guys.
Over/under (43.5): I'm thinking under (waaay under)
I think this team struggles. There's a lot of turnover and no real leadership which I think empowers Kyrie way too much. If they fail to get W's early (which I think they will) then what happens when Kyrie turns melancholy? There's no Durant, there's no D'Angelo Russell, this team's best shot at leadership will have to come from LaVert and Dinwiddie--and what happens if/when their games clash with Kyrie's style? What happens if Coach Atkinson has to scream and yell for control (and he is legendary screamer)? They've jettisoned a lot of dudes that played a lot of minutes last year, leaving them a screaming coach, two young stars that may not be ready to lead, and a crabby captain that may throw in the towel when things go south. I'm just sayin': there's a lot that can go wrong here and not much that can go right--let's say Kyrie is in MVP talk, LaVert wins Most Improved, and Dinwiddie wins 6th Man...how far does that team go in the post-season? The best possible scenario for this season isn't really even that great, so this is a team with a low ceiling and a shockingly low floor. I don't see good things for the Nets this year.
Knicks
Out:
Emmanuel Mudiay, Henry Ellenson, Billy Garrett, Mario Hezonja, Isaiah Hicks, John Jenkins, DeAndre Jordan, Luke Kornet, Lance Thomas, Noah Vonleh
Meh. Easy come, easy go. The Knicks fancy themselves as a destination for free agents but that's like Lubbock, TX, thinking of itself as a great vacation spot.
Re-signed:
Damyean Dotson (guaranteed final year of contract)
Okay. I like Dotson, they may as well keep every remotely promising youngster they can.
In:
Bobby Portis (2yr/$30m), Elfrid Payton (2yr/$16m), Julius Randle (3yr/$58m), Taj Gibson (2yr/$20m), Wayne Ellington (2yr/$16m), Marcus Morris (1yr/$15m), Reggie Bullock (2yr/$8.2m), Ignas Brazdekis (2yr/$2.4m)
I kinda like these moves. It doesn't give them much of a team for the next two years, but it gives them the chance to be in a lot of trade talks and since the free agent pool next summer is going to be shockingly minimal (especially after the lollapalooza we had this summer), so they've invested in reasonably priced assets instead of holding cash. I'm okay with that. I like Randle and I think they got a good deal on him. Portis, Payton and Brazdekis are worth taking a look at. Taj, Ellington, Morris and Bullock are decent trade chips down the line. This team ain't going deep in the playoffs or nothing but I think these moves keep the Knicks relevant in potential roster moves for the next two seasons, so while they didn't get Kyrie and KD, I'm okay with these moves as a fallback.
Over/under (26.5): I'm going over
I think they've got enough veteran smarts to have a few hot streaks throughout the season. And I still believe in Mitchell Robinson, Kevin Knox and RJ Barrett, so there's enough percolating to score them some W's--especially the unexpected kind that pumps up the crowd. Sure, this team is gonna get pants-ed by the Sixers and the Raptors most nights, but every once in a while they'll steal a game from the Lakers or the Celtics or the Heat that no one saw coming--they'll be that kinda team. No, this Bad News Bears squad is not gonna make the playoffs or even be a reliably good team, but I think they'll garner more buzz than you think, so as Knicks teams go, I can see this year's model being something like 'beloved'.
2019-20 NBA Pre-season (Central Division)
Bucks
Out:
Nikola Mirotic, Pau Gasol, Tim Frazier, Malcolm Brogdon, Jon Leuer, Bonzi Colson
Brogdon is gonna be tough to replace but the Bucks can still be really good without him (but, ouch, they're gonna miss him). Mirotic had his moments but didn't do much in the playoffs; strangely took a lesser deal to go back to Europe. Gasol was a nice playoff presence but I don't remember him playing at all for the Bucks last season. Frazier is a nice 2nd/3rd string PG but with Giannis and Middleton handling the ball so much, this is probably a position where they can afford to be thin. I always kinda liked Leuer but I reckon he didn't fit their plans. Colson had good buzz coming out of NCAA, perhaps getting out of Milwaukee will be the break he needs.
Re-signed:
Brook Lopez (4yr/$52m), George Hill (3yr/$28.8m), Khris Middleton, (5yr/$177.7m)
Middleton was a must: what I thought I'd see in the Bucks is that it is Giannis that gets everyone else going but actually Middleton gets Giannis going and then everyone else falls in to place; they're gonna miss Brogdon but with Middleton and Giannis there's enough to get past most teams night after night. And while the Bucks were appreciative of Lopez and Hill for their unexpectedly good seasons last year, giving them big raises for the same performance has got to feel a bit dispiriting; do you keep the continuity or do you allocate the big dollars for sexy additions? (They chose continuity; not bad, I still think they've got a great shot at finishing 1st in the East)
Signed:
Robin Lopez (2yr/$9.7m), Wesley Matthews (1yr/$5.2m), Thanassis Antetokounpo (2yr/$3.1m), Dragan Bender (2yr/$3.5m), Kyle Korver (1yr/$2.6m), Pacers 1st rd pick (top 14 protected 2020-2025), 2025 2nd rd pick, future 2nd rd pick, trade exception (something in the $20m range, no?)
(Another Lopez and another Antentokounpo? Dang!) Robin allows them to maximize their Lopez output (something I always thought would work for the Morris twins, too), which bodes well for their bench play. Matthews and Korver are both kinda limited at this point in their careers but they know how to play and I like adding hungry vets to a good team. I was never a Dragan Bender fan, whenever I've watched him I've never been able to figure out what that guy does on the court; if the Bucks have the right role for him, perhaps he'll finally find himself (at that price tag, he's worth a look, I reckon). That trade exception should give them room to move at the deadline, if they're willing to spend money. That 1st rounder will probably be around #20 I reckon, but more picks are always welcomed these days.
2-way and Exhibit 10 signings:
Cam Reynolds, Frank Mason
I can see Mason being a legit 3rd string PG in this league but I don't know Reynolds.
Over/Under (57.5): I got the over
I have them finishing 2nd in the East (and getting to the Finals). This team feels like they won't be as good as last year and certainly not any better. But they are so driven by Giannis that if he gets better than the team will, too. They've got enough vets and enough continuity to close out games and though losing Brogdon will be tough, I think any Giannis growth will offset that. They're still really good.
Pacers
Out:
Bojan Bogdanovic, Darren Collison, Davon Reed, Kyle O'Quinn, Tyreke Evans, Wes Matthews, Cory Joseph, Thaddeus Young, 2020 1st rd pick (top 14 protected), 2025 2nd rd pick, a future 2nd rd pick
I kinda love Bogdanovic, that's a tough loss, and Young is one of the more underrated players in the league. And though the rest make up a nice bench, I think they can get by without them. This team is all about Oladipo.
Re-signed:
Edmond Sumner (3yr/$4.2m guaranteed), Alize Johnson (guaranteed the final year of his current contract), Aaron Holiday (team exercised option; 1yr), TJ Leaf (team exercised option; 1yr)
Okay, I don't have any great opinions on any of these guys. But if the team likes them, then re-up them.
In:
Malcolm Brogdon (4yr/$85m), Jeremy Lamb (3yr/$31.5m), Goga Bitadze (4yr/$5.7m guaranteed), TJ McConnell (2 yr/$7m), Justin Holiday (1yr/$4.8m), JaKarr Sampson (1yr/$1.7m), Walt Lemon Jr, Three Heat 2nd rd picks (2022, 2025, 2026)
Brogdon is a good addition, a solid reliable PG that will keep the offense moving and won't turn the ball over. Lamb is nice, might be a nice fit here. I've heard intriguing things about Bitadze, could be a rookie to keep an eye on. I love TJ McConnell, the best 2nd string PG in the league (and that's not insignificant). Holiday, Sampson and Lemon are worthy roster fillers.
2nd rd draftees, 2-way contracts, Exhibition 10:
Naz Mitrou-Long, Amida Brimah (1yr/$1m)
I dunno, if the team likes 'em, then go for it.
Over/Under (46.5): I'm going under
I kinda like this team but if Oladipo misses any time at all (and he's slated to start the season injured), I just don't see how they make up for his production. Nice cast around him but they need Oladipo to be a big star to really take off. I've got them 5th in the East (but I don't see them moving on in the playoffs).
Pistons
Out:
Jon Leuer, Jose Calderon, Wayne Ellington, Kalin Lucas, Zaza Pachulia, Glenn Robinson, Ish Smth, Isaiah Whitehead, 2020 2nd rd pick, 2021 2nd rd pick, 2024 2nd rd pick
Ehh, a lot of okay players, nobody irreplaceable.
Re-signed:
Luke Kennard (team exercised option; 2yr)
Okay, now's the time to take a leap.
In:
Sekou Doumbouya (2yr/$6.7m), Tony Snell, Derrick Rose (2yr/$15m), Markieff Morris (2yr/$6.6m), Tim Frazier (1yr), Christian Wood, four Cavs 2nd rd picks (2020, 2021, 2023, 2024)
Doumbouya is an interesting rookie but hard to imagine he'll be good enough to really elevate this squad. Snell, Rose, Morris and Frazier are nice reliable vets (but, again, hard to see them as difference makers) and I always liked Wood, hope he gets some run finally. 2nd rd picks are like birthday cards from a weird uncle: hey, you never know, it might be good.
2nd rd draftees, 2-way contracts, Exhibition 10:
the rights to Deividas Sirvydis, Louis King, Jordan Bone
I dunno. I liked Bone in the NCAA, we'll see if he can step up.
Over/Under (37.5): I have them over
I don't love this team but they don't suck, this is a perfectly slightly above average squad. I have them 8th in the East (and dispatched quickly in the post-season). Not a good team, not a bad team but a sturdy one.
Bulls
Out:
Brandon Sampson, Rawle Alkins, Robin Lopez, Timothe Luwau-Cabarrot, Walt Lemon Jr., Wayne Selden, Antonio Blakeney, 2020 2nd rd pick
When a bad team doesn't come together, you don't really lament the guys that leave in the off-season even if you feel like they might've been helpful. I still kinda like Alkins and TLC and even Lemon and Blakeney, but the Bulls aren't worried about those guys not being around.
Re-signed:
Ryan Arcidiacono (2yr/$6m), Shaq Harrison (2yr/$4.5m)
I like these guys, both reasonable deals and gives them staggering depth at PG (which ain't bad, I guess).
In:
Thaddeus Young (3yr/$41m), Daniel Gafford (4yr/$6.1m), Tomas Satoransky (3yr/$30m), Luke Kornet (2yr/$4.5m), Coby White (4yr/$24m)
They already have Zach LaVine and Otto Porter to build around, so these deals are minimal cast building moves and I kinda like all of them. Young is underrated, Gafford had good buzz in NCAA, I really like Satoransky and I'm warming up on Kornet (very efficient player). If LaVine and Porter take a step forward and White is an ROY candidate, then they could take a real leap.
Also
Luol Deng signed a 1-day contract to retire
Gonna retire his jersey?
Over/Under (32.5): I got them over
I don't love the squad but its not bad, they've got a lot of guys primed to take a step forward next year and while they don't have the veteran savvy that knows how to get W's, I think they'll be good enough to take that step forward this season. Could be a bust out team but I don't see that. I don't have them in playoffs, for example, but I think they get 36 wins, which is good progression for where they've been the last few years.
Cavs
Out:
JR Smith, Deng Adel, Jarron Blossongame, Marquesse Chriss, Channing Frye, David Nwaba, Cameron Payne, Nik Stauskus
Getting rid of Smith is a great and glorious thing for the Cavs. I thought Nwaba really had a chance to be a good player in Cleveland, but didn't work out. As for the rest, oh well.
Re-signed: (none)
Newly signed:
Darius Garland (2yr/$13.1m), Dylan Windler (2yr/$2m), Kevin Porter Jr (2yr/$3.3m), Alfonzo McKinnie, Tyler Cook, Dean Wade
Okay, we're going full-on youth movement here.
Over/Under (24.5): I'm going under
Tristan Thompson, Brandon Knight, Jordan Clarkson, John Henson, and Matthew Dellavedova all come off the books next summer leaving the Cavs an extra $66.8m (yeah, I busted out the calculator for that shit!) to throw around. Factor in that Kevin Love's $28.9m contract could probably be had by anyone willing to throw a bunch of fresh young bodies at the Cavs and you're looking at a total rebuild. Also, their 1st rd pick next year is top 10 protected (then converts to 2nd rounders) meaning they are eager to suck this year. So if the Cavs are unexpectedly good, don't be surprised if management suddenly makes moves to get worse. This actually isn't a bad looking roster for now but everything points to them tanking hard this season. Bet the under!
Out:
Nikola Mirotic, Pau Gasol, Tim Frazier, Malcolm Brogdon, Jon Leuer, Bonzi Colson
Brogdon is gonna be tough to replace but the Bucks can still be really good without him (but, ouch, they're gonna miss him). Mirotic had his moments but didn't do much in the playoffs; strangely took a lesser deal to go back to Europe. Gasol was a nice playoff presence but I don't remember him playing at all for the Bucks last season. Frazier is a nice 2nd/3rd string PG but with Giannis and Middleton handling the ball so much, this is probably a position where they can afford to be thin. I always kinda liked Leuer but I reckon he didn't fit their plans. Colson had good buzz coming out of NCAA, perhaps getting out of Milwaukee will be the break he needs.
Re-signed:
Brook Lopez (4yr/$52m), George Hill (3yr/$28.8m), Khris Middleton, (5yr/$177.7m)
Middleton was a must: what I thought I'd see in the Bucks is that it is Giannis that gets everyone else going but actually Middleton gets Giannis going and then everyone else falls in to place; they're gonna miss Brogdon but with Middleton and Giannis there's enough to get past most teams night after night. And while the Bucks were appreciative of Lopez and Hill for their unexpectedly good seasons last year, giving them big raises for the same performance has got to feel a bit dispiriting; do you keep the continuity or do you allocate the big dollars for sexy additions? (They chose continuity; not bad, I still think they've got a great shot at finishing 1st in the East)
Signed:
Robin Lopez (2yr/$9.7m), Wesley Matthews (1yr/$5.2m), Thanassis Antetokounpo (2yr/$3.1m), Dragan Bender (2yr/$3.5m), Kyle Korver (1yr/$2.6m), Pacers 1st rd pick (top 14 protected 2020-2025), 2025 2nd rd pick, future 2nd rd pick, trade exception (something in the $20m range, no?)
(Another Lopez and another Antentokounpo? Dang!) Robin allows them to maximize their Lopez output (something I always thought would work for the Morris twins, too), which bodes well for their bench play. Matthews and Korver are both kinda limited at this point in their careers but they know how to play and I like adding hungry vets to a good team. I was never a Dragan Bender fan, whenever I've watched him I've never been able to figure out what that guy does on the court; if the Bucks have the right role for him, perhaps he'll finally find himself (at that price tag, he's worth a look, I reckon). That trade exception should give them room to move at the deadline, if they're willing to spend money. That 1st rounder will probably be around #20 I reckon, but more picks are always welcomed these days.
2-way and Exhibit 10 signings:
Cam Reynolds, Frank Mason
I can see Mason being a legit 3rd string PG in this league but I don't know Reynolds.
Over/Under (57.5): I got the over
I have them finishing 2nd in the East (and getting to the Finals). This team feels like they won't be as good as last year and certainly not any better. But they are so driven by Giannis that if he gets better than the team will, too. They've got enough vets and enough continuity to close out games and though losing Brogdon will be tough, I think any Giannis growth will offset that. They're still really good.
Pacers
Out:
Bojan Bogdanovic, Darren Collison, Davon Reed, Kyle O'Quinn, Tyreke Evans, Wes Matthews, Cory Joseph, Thaddeus Young, 2020 1st rd pick (top 14 protected), 2025 2nd rd pick, a future 2nd rd pick
I kinda love Bogdanovic, that's a tough loss, and Young is one of the more underrated players in the league. And though the rest make up a nice bench, I think they can get by without them. This team is all about Oladipo.
Re-signed:
Edmond Sumner (3yr/$4.2m guaranteed), Alize Johnson (guaranteed the final year of his current contract), Aaron Holiday (team exercised option; 1yr), TJ Leaf (team exercised option; 1yr)
Okay, I don't have any great opinions on any of these guys. But if the team likes them, then re-up them.
In:
Malcolm Brogdon (4yr/$85m), Jeremy Lamb (3yr/$31.5m), Goga Bitadze (4yr/$5.7m guaranteed), TJ McConnell (2 yr/$7m), Justin Holiday (1yr/$4.8m), JaKarr Sampson (1yr/$1.7m), Walt Lemon Jr, Three Heat 2nd rd picks (2022, 2025, 2026)
Brogdon is a good addition, a solid reliable PG that will keep the offense moving and won't turn the ball over. Lamb is nice, might be a nice fit here. I've heard intriguing things about Bitadze, could be a rookie to keep an eye on. I love TJ McConnell, the best 2nd string PG in the league (and that's not insignificant). Holiday, Sampson and Lemon are worthy roster fillers.
2nd rd draftees, 2-way contracts, Exhibition 10:
Naz Mitrou-Long, Amida Brimah (1yr/$1m)
I dunno, if the team likes 'em, then go for it.
Over/Under (46.5): I'm going under
I kinda like this team but if Oladipo misses any time at all (and he's slated to start the season injured), I just don't see how they make up for his production. Nice cast around him but they need Oladipo to be a big star to really take off. I've got them 5th in the East (but I don't see them moving on in the playoffs).
Pistons
Out:
Jon Leuer, Jose Calderon, Wayne Ellington, Kalin Lucas, Zaza Pachulia, Glenn Robinson, Ish Smth, Isaiah Whitehead, 2020 2nd rd pick, 2021 2nd rd pick, 2024 2nd rd pick
Ehh, a lot of okay players, nobody irreplaceable.
Re-signed:
Luke Kennard (team exercised option; 2yr)
Okay, now's the time to take a leap.
In:
Sekou Doumbouya (2yr/$6.7m), Tony Snell, Derrick Rose (2yr/$15m), Markieff Morris (2yr/$6.6m), Tim Frazier (1yr), Christian Wood, four Cavs 2nd rd picks (2020, 2021, 2023, 2024)
Doumbouya is an interesting rookie but hard to imagine he'll be good enough to really elevate this squad. Snell, Rose, Morris and Frazier are nice reliable vets (but, again, hard to see them as difference makers) and I always liked Wood, hope he gets some run finally. 2nd rd picks are like birthday cards from a weird uncle: hey, you never know, it might be good.
2nd rd draftees, 2-way contracts, Exhibition 10:
the rights to Deividas Sirvydis, Louis King, Jordan Bone
I dunno. I liked Bone in the NCAA, we'll see if he can step up.
Over/Under (37.5): I have them over
I don't love this team but they don't suck, this is a perfectly slightly above average squad. I have them 8th in the East (and dispatched quickly in the post-season). Not a good team, not a bad team but a sturdy one.
Bulls
Out:
Brandon Sampson, Rawle Alkins, Robin Lopez, Timothe Luwau-Cabarrot, Walt Lemon Jr., Wayne Selden, Antonio Blakeney, 2020 2nd rd pick
When a bad team doesn't come together, you don't really lament the guys that leave in the off-season even if you feel like they might've been helpful. I still kinda like Alkins and TLC and even Lemon and Blakeney, but the Bulls aren't worried about those guys not being around.
Re-signed:
Ryan Arcidiacono (2yr/$6m), Shaq Harrison (2yr/$4.5m)
I like these guys, both reasonable deals and gives them staggering depth at PG (which ain't bad, I guess).
In:
Thaddeus Young (3yr/$41m), Daniel Gafford (4yr/$6.1m), Tomas Satoransky (3yr/$30m), Luke Kornet (2yr/$4.5m), Coby White (4yr/$24m)
They already have Zach LaVine and Otto Porter to build around, so these deals are minimal cast building moves and I kinda like all of them. Young is underrated, Gafford had good buzz in NCAA, I really like Satoransky and I'm warming up on Kornet (very efficient player). If LaVine and Porter take a step forward and White is an ROY candidate, then they could take a real leap.
Also
Luol Deng signed a 1-day contract to retire
Gonna retire his jersey?
Over/Under (32.5): I got them over
I don't love the squad but its not bad, they've got a lot of guys primed to take a step forward next year and while they don't have the veteran savvy that knows how to get W's, I think they'll be good enough to take that step forward this season. Could be a bust out team but I don't see that. I don't have them in playoffs, for example, but I think they get 36 wins, which is good progression for where they've been the last few years.
Cavs
Out:
JR Smith, Deng Adel, Jarron Blossongame, Marquesse Chriss, Channing Frye, David Nwaba, Cameron Payne, Nik Stauskus
Getting rid of Smith is a great and glorious thing for the Cavs. I thought Nwaba really had a chance to be a good player in Cleveland, but didn't work out. As for the rest, oh well.
Re-signed: (none)
Newly signed:
Darius Garland (2yr/$13.1m), Dylan Windler (2yr/$2m), Kevin Porter Jr (2yr/$3.3m), Alfonzo McKinnie, Tyler Cook, Dean Wade
Okay, we're going full-on youth movement here.
Over/Under (24.5): I'm going under
Tristan Thompson, Brandon Knight, Jordan Clarkson, John Henson, and Matthew Dellavedova all come off the books next summer leaving the Cavs an extra $66.8m (yeah, I busted out the calculator for that shit!) to throw around. Factor in that Kevin Love's $28.9m contract could probably be had by anyone willing to throw a bunch of fresh young bodies at the Cavs and you're looking at a total rebuild. Also, their 1st rd pick next year is top 10 protected (then converts to 2nd rounders) meaning they are eager to suck this year. So if the Cavs are unexpectedly good, don't be surprised if management suddenly makes moves to get worse. This actually isn't a bad looking roster for now but everything points to them tanking hard this season. Bet the under!
2019-20 NBA Pre-season (Southeast Division)
Heat
Out:
Ryan Anderson, Hassan Whiteside, Josh Richardson, Yante Maten, Dwyane Wade, 2022 2nd rd pick, 2025 2nd rd pick, 2026 2nd rd pick, 2023 1st rd pick (top 14 protected)
Tough to lose that 1st rd pick but the rest are better off gone.
Re-signed:
Duncan Robinson (guaranteed final year of his contract; 1yr/$1m), Udonis Haslem (1yr/$2.6m), Derrick Jones Jr (team exercised option; 1yr), Kendrick Nunn (guaranteed final year; 1yr/$150k), Bam Adebayo (team exercised option; 2yr), coach Erik Spoelstra (multi-year extension)
Haslem is still around, huh? I've grown into the notion that sometimes coaches are more effective as players, that paying Haslem $5m to be a coach wouldn't be as effective as $2m to be a player, but I can't help thinking that whatever Haslem does it could be done outside of the salary cap. But I guess they must love him. I'm a big fan of Adebayo, think he's gonna have a big year. And Spoelstra is a great coach, more years is a great thing. The other dudes are reasonably priced.
In:
Jimmy Butler (4yr/$140m), Tyler Herro (4yr/$7.5m guaranteed), KZ Okpala (3yr/$4.2m), Chris Silva, Daryl Macon, Nuggets 2022 2nd rd pick
I think Butler is problematic but this looks to be the ideal spot for him, so hopefully he'll going back to just being a player; if so, the Heat could be really good this year. Herro looks like a stud, looks to fit nicely in that rotation. Okpala is a good value at that pick. Don't know Silva or Macon.
Over/Under (43.5): I'm going over (just barely)
I don't love this team but I think this division is kinda awful, so that alone should net the Heat a pile of W's, and they have a lot of trade options, so I think their flexibility will serve them well this season. If Butler keeps his head on, if Herro challenges for ROY, if Bam blows up, if Dragic has a killer walk year, then the Heat could really be great, even kinda dangerous in the playoffs. But that's a lot of ifs, so I think banking that they'll be good not great is much more reasonable.
Magic
Out:
Timofey Mozgov, Troy Caupain, Jerian Grant
Meh. Nothing to worry about on this side of the ledger.
Re-signed:
Nikola Vucevic (4yr/$100m), Terrence Ross (4yr/$54m), Khem Birch (2yr/$6m), Michaeal Carter-Williams (1yr), Jonathon Isaac (team exercised option; 2yr), Markelle Fultz (team exercised option; 2yr), Mo Bamba (team exercised option; 2yr)
Seems like a lot of money to spend on bringing back guys that got comfortably bounced in the first round last year, but there's a lot of talent here and if it's available to the Magic then they're probably wise to scoop it up (even if they gotta overpay). I kinda love Vucevic, he can be the anchor of a good team. Ross is a reliable veteran swingman. Birch is an underrated scorer down low. MCW can be useful off the bench. I've been skeptical of Isaac and Bamba but they'll play this year so we'll see what they can do. This season for the Magic is all about Fultz: if he can be anywhere close to what he was supposed to be then all of the sudden this looks like a really good team, with flexibility to make a deal.
In:
Al-Farouq Aminu (3yr/$29.2m)
Aminu's on-ball defense is among the best in the league, not a bad player to have around and very affordable, too.
2nd rd draftees, 2-way contracts, Exhibition
Josh Magette, Amile Jefferson
Not sure what depth these guys provide but they're there, so good for them.
Over/Under (41.5): I got them just under
If everything goes right for the Magic, they could be really good next year, they've got all the pieces to really surprise people. That said, it would be a surprise. So while I like them to finish 7th in the East, I don't foresee them going deep in the playoffs (but, again, a shock is on the table for them).
Hawks
Out:
Alex Poythress, Isaac Humphries, Justin Anderson, Taurean Prince, Miles Plumlee, Omari Spellman, Jaylen Adams, 2020 1st rd pick (top 10 protected), 2020 2nd rd pick, 2021 2nd rd pick, 2023 2nd rd pick
Prince and Spellman were nice young players but they were moved for better parts. The others are just others.
Re-signed:
Vince Carter (1yr/$2.6m), John Collins (team exercised option; 1yr), Trae Young (team exercised option; 1yr), Kevin Huerter (team exercised option; 1yr),
I'm cool with bringing back Vince for his farewell tour. As for Collins, Young, and Huerter, they're the future.
In:
Allen Crabbe, Bruno Fernando (3yr/$4.7m), Chandler Parsons, DeAndre Hunter (4yr/$14.5m guaranteed), Damian Jones, Jabari Parker (2y/$13m), Cam Reddish, Evan Turner, 2026 Warriors 2nd rd pick, 2020 Nets 1st rd pick (top 14 protected), Pelicans 2023 2nd rd pick (top 45 protected)
Hunter, Reddish and Fernando are three more rooks for the youth movement. Turner, Crabbe and Parsons will choke the salary cap but just for one year. Parker and Jones are solid vets that could look really good in this rotation.
2nd rd draftees, 2-way contracts, Exhibition
Brandon Goodwin, Charlie Brown
Don't know them (can neither confirm nor deny that Brown is in fact a clown).
Over/Under (33.5): I got them under
I'm a fan of youth movements so I'll be watching this squad. And while I think offensively they might take a real leap this season, I think defensively they're gonna suck pretty bad. This is try-out season for Denadre Bembry and Alex Len (and Jabari Parker, too, for that matter) and they'll get their chances. The future is looking good (and they have Brooklyn's top 15 protected pick coming, too) and next summer they'll have big money to spend (though next summer will not be nearly as exciting as this past summer was). One more year, Hawks fans, then you get start getting your hopes up.
Wizards
Out:
Trevor Ariza, Sam Dekker, Jeff Green, Jabari Parker, Tarik Phillip, Bobby Portis, Chasson Randle, Devin Robinson, Tomas Satoransky, Dwight Howard
That's a lot of names that feel like ought to have contributed more. Ariza was not a good fit for them, I still believe in Dekker (though clearly no one else does), Green is nice but not enough for the Wizards, Parker just didn't have it, Portis wasn't the right fit, Satorasnky is a tough loss for them, Howard was never gonna get it done in Washington. Lot of interesting names but the Wizards are better off without all of them (except maybe Satoransky).
Re-signed:
Thomas Bryant (3yr/$25m), Mo Wagner (team exercised option; 2yr), Troy Brown Jr (team exercised option; 2yr), Bradley Beal (extension; 3yr/$100m)
Signing Beal is a great move (and doesn't make him any less trade-able, by the way), they need him and Wall to make it happen--it's they're only hope. As for the others, well, I dunno, sure why not?
In:
CJ Miles, Davis Bertans, Isaac Bonga, Morittz Wagner, Ish Smith (2yr/$12m), Isaiah Thomas (1yr/$2.3m), Admiral Scofield (3yr/$4.2m), Justin Robinson (3yr/$4.2m), Chris Chiozza, Anzejs Pasecniks, 2022 Lakers 2nd rd pick
Thomas might be fun (or he might done), otherwise I'm not feeling much for these pick-ups. I think this team is brutally bad and no matter what they do, they will probably be pretty awful.
Over/Under (26.5): I got 'em way under
Yeah, this team is not good, not going to be good any time soon. Wall getting healthy and/or a big Beal trade bringing back a crazy haul is all they got to hope for.
Hornets
Out:
Frank Kaminsky, JP Macura, Jeremy Lamb, Kemba Walker, Shelvin Mack, Tony Parker, 2020 2nd rd pick
Yeah, losing all these guys should kill them, right? (Oh, wait, they weren't any good when they had all these guys)
Re-signed:
Willy Hernangomez (team guaranteed final year), Dwayne Bacon (team guaranteed final year)
I'm in on both of these guys, rooting for them to each have a good season.
Newly signed:
PJ Washington (2yr/$7.9m), Terry Rozier (3yr/$57m)
I can totally see PJ being the alpha dog of this team right away, he's big and tough and pretty good at everything on the court, this is a terrible situation for him to start his career but this team should offer him plenty of opportunity. Rozier...$57m...whooch....really? I'm not seeing it. Not seeing this guy as the playmaker that gets it done.
2nd rd draftees, 2-way contracts, Exhibition
Robert Franks, Caleb Martin, Cody Martin (3yr/$4.5m), Jalen McDaniels, Joe Chealey, Kobi Simmons
Curious to see if those Martin twins can get it going in the NBA.
Over/Under (23.5): aw, hell no! No way this team gets to 23 wins!
Yeah, this is not a good squad at all. And they're in with the Wizards and I still don't think they'll get any W's! Keep your eye on PJ Washington, Mikal Bridges and the Martin twins and just pass the time til the $45m worth of Williams, Biyombo and MKG finally become spendable again.
Out:
Ryan Anderson, Hassan Whiteside, Josh Richardson, Yante Maten, Dwyane Wade, 2022 2nd rd pick, 2025 2nd rd pick, 2026 2nd rd pick, 2023 1st rd pick (top 14 protected)
Tough to lose that 1st rd pick but the rest are better off gone.
Re-signed:
Duncan Robinson (guaranteed final year of his contract; 1yr/$1m), Udonis Haslem (1yr/$2.6m), Derrick Jones Jr (team exercised option; 1yr), Kendrick Nunn (guaranteed final year; 1yr/$150k), Bam Adebayo (team exercised option; 2yr), coach Erik Spoelstra (multi-year extension)
Haslem is still around, huh? I've grown into the notion that sometimes coaches are more effective as players, that paying Haslem $5m to be a coach wouldn't be as effective as $2m to be a player, but I can't help thinking that whatever Haslem does it could be done outside of the salary cap. But I guess they must love him. I'm a big fan of Adebayo, think he's gonna have a big year. And Spoelstra is a great coach, more years is a great thing. The other dudes are reasonably priced.
In:
Jimmy Butler (4yr/$140m), Tyler Herro (4yr/$7.5m guaranteed), KZ Okpala (3yr/$4.2m), Chris Silva, Daryl Macon, Nuggets 2022 2nd rd pick
I think Butler is problematic but this looks to be the ideal spot for him, so hopefully he'll going back to just being a player; if so, the Heat could be really good this year. Herro looks like a stud, looks to fit nicely in that rotation. Okpala is a good value at that pick. Don't know Silva or Macon.
Over/Under (43.5): I'm going over (just barely)
I don't love this team but I think this division is kinda awful, so that alone should net the Heat a pile of W's, and they have a lot of trade options, so I think their flexibility will serve them well this season. If Butler keeps his head on, if Herro challenges for ROY, if Bam blows up, if Dragic has a killer walk year, then the Heat could really be great, even kinda dangerous in the playoffs. But that's a lot of ifs, so I think banking that they'll be good not great is much more reasonable.
Magic
Out:
Timofey Mozgov, Troy Caupain, Jerian Grant
Meh. Nothing to worry about on this side of the ledger.
Re-signed:
Nikola Vucevic (4yr/$100m), Terrence Ross (4yr/$54m), Khem Birch (2yr/$6m), Michaeal Carter-Williams (1yr), Jonathon Isaac (team exercised option; 2yr), Markelle Fultz (team exercised option; 2yr), Mo Bamba (team exercised option; 2yr)
Seems like a lot of money to spend on bringing back guys that got comfortably bounced in the first round last year, but there's a lot of talent here and if it's available to the Magic then they're probably wise to scoop it up (even if they gotta overpay). I kinda love Vucevic, he can be the anchor of a good team. Ross is a reliable veteran swingman. Birch is an underrated scorer down low. MCW can be useful off the bench. I've been skeptical of Isaac and Bamba but they'll play this year so we'll see what they can do. This season for the Magic is all about Fultz: if he can be anywhere close to what he was supposed to be then all of the sudden this looks like a really good team, with flexibility to make a deal.
In:
Al-Farouq Aminu (3yr/$29.2m)
Aminu's on-ball defense is among the best in the league, not a bad player to have around and very affordable, too.
2nd rd draftees, 2-way contracts, Exhibition
Josh Magette, Amile Jefferson
Not sure what depth these guys provide but they're there, so good for them.
Over/Under (41.5): I got them just under
If everything goes right for the Magic, they could be really good next year, they've got all the pieces to really surprise people. That said, it would be a surprise. So while I like them to finish 7th in the East, I don't foresee them going deep in the playoffs (but, again, a shock is on the table for them).
Hawks
Out:
Alex Poythress, Isaac Humphries, Justin Anderson, Taurean Prince, Miles Plumlee, Omari Spellman, Jaylen Adams, 2020 1st rd pick (top 10 protected), 2020 2nd rd pick, 2021 2nd rd pick, 2023 2nd rd pick
Prince and Spellman were nice young players but they were moved for better parts. The others are just others.
Re-signed:
Vince Carter (1yr/$2.6m), John Collins (team exercised option; 1yr), Trae Young (team exercised option; 1yr), Kevin Huerter (team exercised option; 1yr),
I'm cool with bringing back Vince for his farewell tour. As for Collins, Young, and Huerter, they're the future.
In:
Allen Crabbe, Bruno Fernando (3yr/$4.7m), Chandler Parsons, DeAndre Hunter (4yr/$14.5m guaranteed), Damian Jones, Jabari Parker (2y/$13m), Cam Reddish, Evan Turner, 2026 Warriors 2nd rd pick, 2020 Nets 1st rd pick (top 14 protected), Pelicans 2023 2nd rd pick (top 45 protected)
Hunter, Reddish and Fernando are three more rooks for the youth movement. Turner, Crabbe and Parsons will choke the salary cap but just for one year. Parker and Jones are solid vets that could look really good in this rotation.
2nd rd draftees, 2-way contracts, Exhibition
Brandon Goodwin, Charlie Brown
Don't know them (can neither confirm nor deny that Brown is in fact a clown).
Over/Under (33.5): I got them under
I'm a fan of youth movements so I'll be watching this squad. And while I think offensively they might take a real leap this season, I think defensively they're gonna suck pretty bad. This is try-out season for Denadre Bembry and Alex Len (and Jabari Parker, too, for that matter) and they'll get their chances. The future is looking good (and they have Brooklyn's top 15 protected pick coming, too) and next summer they'll have big money to spend (though next summer will not be nearly as exciting as this past summer was). One more year, Hawks fans, then you get start getting your hopes up.
Wizards
Out:
Trevor Ariza, Sam Dekker, Jeff Green, Jabari Parker, Tarik Phillip, Bobby Portis, Chasson Randle, Devin Robinson, Tomas Satoransky, Dwight Howard
That's a lot of names that feel like ought to have contributed more. Ariza was not a good fit for them, I still believe in Dekker (though clearly no one else does), Green is nice but not enough for the Wizards, Parker just didn't have it, Portis wasn't the right fit, Satorasnky is a tough loss for them, Howard was never gonna get it done in Washington. Lot of interesting names but the Wizards are better off without all of them (except maybe Satoransky).
Re-signed:
Thomas Bryant (3yr/$25m), Mo Wagner (team exercised option; 2yr), Troy Brown Jr (team exercised option; 2yr), Bradley Beal (extension; 3yr/$100m)
Signing Beal is a great move (and doesn't make him any less trade-able, by the way), they need him and Wall to make it happen--it's they're only hope. As for the others, well, I dunno, sure why not?
In:
CJ Miles, Davis Bertans, Isaac Bonga, Morittz Wagner, Ish Smith (2yr/$12m), Isaiah Thomas (1yr/$2.3m), Admiral Scofield (3yr/$4.2m), Justin Robinson (3yr/$4.2m), Chris Chiozza, Anzejs Pasecniks, 2022 Lakers 2nd rd pick
Thomas might be fun (or he might done), otherwise I'm not feeling much for these pick-ups. I think this team is brutally bad and no matter what they do, they will probably be pretty awful.
Over/Under (26.5): I got 'em way under
Yeah, this team is not good, not going to be good any time soon. Wall getting healthy and/or a big Beal trade bringing back a crazy haul is all they got to hope for.
Hornets
Out:
Frank Kaminsky, JP Macura, Jeremy Lamb, Kemba Walker, Shelvin Mack, Tony Parker, 2020 2nd rd pick
Yeah, losing all these guys should kill them, right? (Oh, wait, they weren't any good when they had all these guys)
Re-signed:
Willy Hernangomez (team guaranteed final year), Dwayne Bacon (team guaranteed final year)
I'm in on both of these guys, rooting for them to each have a good season.
Newly signed:
PJ Washington (2yr/$7.9m), Terry Rozier (3yr/$57m)
I can totally see PJ being the alpha dog of this team right away, he's big and tough and pretty good at everything on the court, this is a terrible situation for him to start his career but this team should offer him plenty of opportunity. Rozier...$57m...whooch....really? I'm not seeing it. Not seeing this guy as the playmaker that gets it done.
2nd rd draftees, 2-way contracts, Exhibition
Robert Franks, Caleb Martin, Cody Martin (3yr/$4.5m), Jalen McDaniels, Joe Chealey, Kobi Simmons
Curious to see if those Martin twins can get it going in the NBA.
Over/Under (23.5): aw, hell no! No way this team gets to 23 wins!
Yeah, this is not a good squad at all. And they're in with the Wizards and I still don't think they'll get any W's! Keep your eye on PJ Washington, Mikal Bridges and the Martin twins and just pass the time til the $45m worth of Williams, Biyombo and MKG finally become spendable again.
2019-20 NBA Pre-season (Northwest Division)
Nuggets
Out:
Isaiah Thomas, Tyler Lydon, Trey Lyles, Brandon Goodwin, Thomas Welsh, 2020 1st rd pick (top 10 protected)
Thomas didn't pan out, Lydon never found his footing in this rotation, I like Lyles but they didn't really need him and Goodwin and Welsh are gone, too, and that 1st rounder was redeemed for Jerami Grant, who would seem to be exactly what they need. No big losses here.
Re-signed:
Paul Millsap (team option; 1yr/$30.3m), Jamal Murray (extension 5yr/$195.6), Micheal Porter Jr (team exercised option; 2 yr)
Picking up the Millsap option was a surprise to me but the right move as it gives them continuity without taxing them in the long term. The long term money went to Murray, who had a solid post-season last year and it is always good to reward the talent and lock up the youth. And they get to add new talent that was in-house all along: Michael Porter Jr. Picking up his option is a confirmation of their belief that they've got something special (I'm eager to see it).
In:
Jerami Grant (trade; 1yr), Vlatko Cancar (3yr/$4.2m), PJ Dozier (1yr), Bol Bol,
They swapped a 1st rounder for Grant and given that I don't think that pick will be that great, it was the perfect move for the Nuggets. Grant will give them a freewheeling defender in the mold of their high octane offensive scheme. Bol is coming off a serious injury, not sure we'll see much of him, but getting him as a late 2nd rounder is ridiculous value, anything he delivers will be a bonus (and he might turn out to be really good as he was graded a top ten pick before last season).
Over/Under (52.5): I'm going way over
I think this team knows who they are, the big guys all got paid, the youngsters look promising, the altitude gives them an unnatural home court advantage and the coach knows how to handle it all. I got them finishing 1st in the West and getting to the conference finals (I also have Porter winning ROY and Coach Malone winning Coach of the Year).
Jazz
Out:
Naz Mitrou-Long, Tyler Cavanaugh, Raul Neto, David Stockton, Ekpe Udoh, Ricky Rubio, Thabo Sefolosha, Erik McCree, Grayson Allen, Jae Crowder, Kyle Korver, the rights to Darius Bazley, Derrick Favors, 2021 1st rd pick (top 7 protected)
Moving on from Rubio and Favors is gonna be the focus of the early part of this season, but otherwise these losses are rather minimal.
Re-signed:
Donovan Mitchell (team exercised option; 2yr), Tony Bradley (team exercised option; 2yr), coach Quin Snyder (multi-year extension)
I'm all about locking up Mitchell and Snyder long term, not sure what they see in Bradley, but the Jazz have always been big on holding on to their draftees.
In:
Mike Conley (trade; 2yr), Bojan Bogdanovic (4yr/$73.1m), Ed Davis (2yr/$9.8m), Emmanuel Mudiay (1/$1.7m), Jeff Green (1yr/$2.56m), Pelicans 2nd rd picks (2021, 2023)
All good! This is why people are excited about the Jazz this year! Conley is ready to be a on a good team again and the Jazz are going to be perfect for him. Bogdanovic gives them consistent 3-point shooting (and an unexpectedly good perimeter defender), Davis is good backup for Gobert, Mudiay is a distributor that should be a good fill in for Conley and Green has looked pretty great in pre-season. They made all the right moves to surround the rising core.
2nd rd draftees, 2-way contracts, Exhibition
Miye Oni (3yr/$4.2m), Jarrell Brantley, Justin Wright-Foreman, Stanton Kidd (3yr/$4.2m), Nigel Williams-Goss (3yr/$4.8m), Isaac Haas
I don't know any of these guys (but I gotta say: South Park was never the same after they killed off Isaac Haas).
Over/Under (53.5): I'm going over
This team is ready to blow up. And there's nothing better to do in Salt Lake City, so I fully expect this team to bringing it e'rry night.
Blazers
Out:
Evan Turner, Al-Farouq Aminu, Enes Kanter, Seth Curry, Moe Harkless, Meyers Leonard, Jake Layman
That's a lot of nice players but mostly 2nd string production, no huge losses but the accumulation clearly weakens their depth.
Re-signed:
Damian Lillard (extension; 5yr/$196m), Rodney Hood (2yr/$11.7m), CJ McCollum (extension; 3yr/$100m), Anfernee Simons (team exercised option; 2yr), Zach Collins (team exercised option; 2yr)
I'm a big fan of rewarding the players that gave the fans what they wanted and Lillard and McCollum did just that last year and deserve every penny they get; that said, this does hamstring the already hamstrung roster, but success deserved to be rewarded. Hood is a nice addition, I think he'll give them a little more scoring than Evan Turner (if a little less playmaking) at a very reasonable price point. Collins is ready to take off and, okay, I think we'll see this year if Anfernee Simons is worthy of all the hype (I think he will be).
In:
Kent Bazemore (trade; 1yr), Nas Little (2yr/$4.3m), Anthony Tolliver (1yr/$2.6m), Mario Hezonja (2yr/$3.7m), Pau Gasol (1yr/$2.6m), Hassan Whiteside (trade; 1yr), Moses Brown, Jaylen Hoard,
I've never been a huge fan of Bazemore or Tolliver and as great as Pau once was, he no longer is, so these moves don't appear to be a net positive. That said, I like Whiteside more than most and if he can establish a worthwhile defensive presence down low, it could transform their whole style. And I think Hezonja can (along with Hood) give them a decent playmaker to replace the underrated Turner. Whatever Little contributes is a bonus.
Over/Under (46.5): I got the over
They lost a lot, they didn't add much, so why am I going over? Because I don't think they have any moves to make, this is the team they got and they will ride it hard all year long. Does that make them a 50-win team? Well, the Blazers have flummoxed me over and over again over the years, I'm just expecting them to outperform because they always do.
Thunder
Out:
Jawun Evans, Ray Felton, Markieff Morris, Jerami Grant, Paul George, Deonte Graham, Patrick Patterson, Russell Westbrook,
Well, moving on from Westbrook is cutting ties to how this team has been run for almost a decade. Moving on from George is moving on from their last big move. Moving on from Evans, Felton, Morris, Grant and Patterson signals that their recent philosophy has simple not worked out. The house is freshly cleaned, what now?
Re-signed:
Nerlens Noel (1yr/$2m), Abdel Nader (guaranteed upcoming season), Deonte Burton (guaranteed upcoming season), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (team exercised option; 2yr), Terrance Ferguson (team exercised option; 2yr)
Nerlens never quite found his place in the league, he's one dimensional but he's really good at his one dimension (whispers are that he's an annoying weirdo in real life), I don't see him back next year so this is his audition for other teams (or becoming trade bait). Ferguson and SGA are the future and Burton and Nader are worthwhile players for now.
In:
Darius Bazley (4yr/$9m), Mike Muscala (2yr/$4.5m), Danilo Gallinari, Chris Paul, Justin Patton (2yr/$.5m), Luguentz Dort, Devon Hall, Clippers 2021, 2022, 2024, 2026 1st rd picks (rights to swap 1st rd picks in 2023, 2025), Rockets 2024, 2026 1st rd picks (rights to swap 1st rd picks in 2024, 2025), Grizzlies 2nd rd pick, Nuggets 2020 1st rd pick
Despite rumors that they are desperate to move Chris Paul (and Steven Adams), I think CP can be a great centerpiece going forward to shepherd the incoming rookies (and there are gonna be a ton in the next few years!). Furthermore, I think CP fits this team in a way that Westbrook didn't: namely, he'll keep the supporting cast active while Westbrook mostly left them standing around. I'm sure they're still trying to make big moves (throw Roberson and Shroeder in the trade rumors, as well), so this team will undoubtedly change a lot throughout the season. No telling what this team will be at this time next year. (Did anyone notice that they hired Dave Bliss as an assistant? Hmmmmmm.....that's a name I never thought I'd hear again)
Over/Under (31.5): I'm going way over
I think this team is lumpy and weird but there's enough veteran presence to keep the team straight and enough youth to keep mixing it up. Yeah, there are trades to make but I suspect this'll be a better-than-you-think kinda team, though I don't have them making the playoffs.
Wolves
Out:
Cam Reynolds, CJ Williams, Jared Terrell, Mitch Creek, Anthony Tolliver, Derrick Rose, Jerryd Bayless, Luol Deng, Taj Gibson, Dario Saric, Tyus Jones, the rights to Lior Eliyahu, Bojan Dubljevic
I'm a big fan of Dario Saric and I thought he fit what they were doing and Tyus Jones is a hometown favorite (but realistically no better than a 3rd string PG), but otherwise I think the Wolves can comfortably move on from these losses.
Re-signed: (none)
In:
Jarrett Culver (2yr/$11.9m), Noah Vonleh (1yr/$2m), Shabazz Napier, Traveon Graham, Jake Layman, Jordan Bell, Naz Reid (4yr/$6.1m), Jordan McLaughlin, Jaylen Nowell, Kelan Martin,
Coupla intriguing draft picks (Culver, Reid), coupla youngsters looking for another shot (Bell, Vonleh, Layman), coupla edge of the league guys (Graham, Napier), and some dudes I never heard of (McLaughlin, Nowell, Martin). Calling this a 'mixed bag' would really be overstating it, don't ya think?
Over/Under (35.5): I got the under
I still believe in KAT and Wiggins and Dieng, too, but they're paying way too much for way too little and that's a shame. I just don't see this team getting off the ground this season. (Look for Robert Covington to be the prized trade bait all through January) Next season will loosen up the cap and they'll have a sense of where to go with Bates-Diop, Okogie, Culver and Reid.
Out:
Isaiah Thomas, Tyler Lydon, Trey Lyles, Brandon Goodwin, Thomas Welsh, 2020 1st rd pick (top 10 protected)
Thomas didn't pan out, Lydon never found his footing in this rotation, I like Lyles but they didn't really need him and Goodwin and Welsh are gone, too, and that 1st rounder was redeemed for Jerami Grant, who would seem to be exactly what they need. No big losses here.
Re-signed:
Paul Millsap (team option; 1yr/$30.3m), Jamal Murray (extension 5yr/$195.6), Micheal Porter Jr (team exercised option; 2 yr)
Picking up the Millsap option was a surprise to me but the right move as it gives them continuity without taxing them in the long term. The long term money went to Murray, who had a solid post-season last year and it is always good to reward the talent and lock up the youth. And they get to add new talent that was in-house all along: Michael Porter Jr. Picking up his option is a confirmation of their belief that they've got something special (I'm eager to see it).
In:
Jerami Grant (trade; 1yr), Vlatko Cancar (3yr/$4.2m), PJ Dozier (1yr), Bol Bol,
They swapped a 1st rounder for Grant and given that I don't think that pick will be that great, it was the perfect move for the Nuggets. Grant will give them a freewheeling defender in the mold of their high octane offensive scheme. Bol is coming off a serious injury, not sure we'll see much of him, but getting him as a late 2nd rounder is ridiculous value, anything he delivers will be a bonus (and he might turn out to be really good as he was graded a top ten pick before last season).
Over/Under (52.5): I'm going way over
I think this team knows who they are, the big guys all got paid, the youngsters look promising, the altitude gives them an unnatural home court advantage and the coach knows how to handle it all. I got them finishing 1st in the West and getting to the conference finals (I also have Porter winning ROY and Coach Malone winning Coach of the Year).
Jazz
Out:
Naz Mitrou-Long, Tyler Cavanaugh, Raul Neto, David Stockton, Ekpe Udoh, Ricky Rubio, Thabo Sefolosha, Erik McCree, Grayson Allen, Jae Crowder, Kyle Korver, the rights to Darius Bazley, Derrick Favors, 2021 1st rd pick (top 7 protected)
Moving on from Rubio and Favors is gonna be the focus of the early part of this season, but otherwise these losses are rather minimal.
Re-signed:
Donovan Mitchell (team exercised option; 2yr), Tony Bradley (team exercised option; 2yr), coach Quin Snyder (multi-year extension)
I'm all about locking up Mitchell and Snyder long term, not sure what they see in Bradley, but the Jazz have always been big on holding on to their draftees.
In:
Mike Conley (trade; 2yr), Bojan Bogdanovic (4yr/$73.1m), Ed Davis (2yr/$9.8m), Emmanuel Mudiay (1/$1.7m), Jeff Green (1yr/$2.56m), Pelicans 2nd rd picks (2021, 2023)
All good! This is why people are excited about the Jazz this year! Conley is ready to be a on a good team again and the Jazz are going to be perfect for him. Bogdanovic gives them consistent 3-point shooting (and an unexpectedly good perimeter defender), Davis is good backup for Gobert, Mudiay is a distributor that should be a good fill in for Conley and Green has looked pretty great in pre-season. They made all the right moves to surround the rising core.
2nd rd draftees, 2-way contracts, Exhibition
Miye Oni (3yr/$4.2m), Jarrell Brantley, Justin Wright-Foreman, Stanton Kidd (3yr/$4.2m), Nigel Williams-Goss (3yr/$4.8m), Isaac Haas
I don't know any of these guys (but I gotta say: South Park was never the same after they killed off Isaac Haas).
Over/Under (53.5): I'm going over
This team is ready to blow up. And there's nothing better to do in Salt Lake City, so I fully expect this team to bringing it e'rry night.
Blazers
Out:
Evan Turner, Al-Farouq Aminu, Enes Kanter, Seth Curry, Moe Harkless, Meyers Leonard, Jake Layman
That's a lot of nice players but mostly 2nd string production, no huge losses but the accumulation clearly weakens their depth.
Re-signed:
Damian Lillard (extension; 5yr/$196m), Rodney Hood (2yr/$11.7m), CJ McCollum (extension; 3yr/$100m), Anfernee Simons (team exercised option; 2yr), Zach Collins (team exercised option; 2yr)
I'm a big fan of rewarding the players that gave the fans what they wanted and Lillard and McCollum did just that last year and deserve every penny they get; that said, this does hamstring the already hamstrung roster, but success deserved to be rewarded. Hood is a nice addition, I think he'll give them a little more scoring than Evan Turner (if a little less playmaking) at a very reasonable price point. Collins is ready to take off and, okay, I think we'll see this year if Anfernee Simons is worthy of all the hype (I think he will be).
In:
Kent Bazemore (trade; 1yr), Nas Little (2yr/$4.3m), Anthony Tolliver (1yr/$2.6m), Mario Hezonja (2yr/$3.7m), Pau Gasol (1yr/$2.6m), Hassan Whiteside (trade; 1yr), Moses Brown, Jaylen Hoard,
I've never been a huge fan of Bazemore or Tolliver and as great as Pau once was, he no longer is, so these moves don't appear to be a net positive. That said, I like Whiteside more than most and if he can establish a worthwhile defensive presence down low, it could transform their whole style. And I think Hezonja can (along with Hood) give them a decent playmaker to replace the underrated Turner. Whatever Little contributes is a bonus.
Over/Under (46.5): I got the over
They lost a lot, they didn't add much, so why am I going over? Because I don't think they have any moves to make, this is the team they got and they will ride it hard all year long. Does that make them a 50-win team? Well, the Blazers have flummoxed me over and over again over the years, I'm just expecting them to outperform because they always do.
Thunder
Out:
Jawun Evans, Ray Felton, Markieff Morris, Jerami Grant, Paul George, Deonte Graham, Patrick Patterson, Russell Westbrook,
Well, moving on from Westbrook is cutting ties to how this team has been run for almost a decade. Moving on from George is moving on from their last big move. Moving on from Evans, Felton, Morris, Grant and Patterson signals that their recent philosophy has simple not worked out. The house is freshly cleaned, what now?
Re-signed:
Nerlens Noel (1yr/$2m), Abdel Nader (guaranteed upcoming season), Deonte Burton (guaranteed upcoming season), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (team exercised option; 2yr), Terrance Ferguson (team exercised option; 2yr)
Nerlens never quite found his place in the league, he's one dimensional but he's really good at his one dimension (whispers are that he's an annoying weirdo in real life), I don't see him back next year so this is his audition for other teams (or becoming trade bait). Ferguson and SGA are the future and Burton and Nader are worthwhile players for now.
In:
Darius Bazley (4yr/$9m), Mike Muscala (2yr/$4.5m), Danilo Gallinari, Chris Paul, Justin Patton (2yr/$.5m), Luguentz Dort, Devon Hall, Clippers 2021, 2022, 2024, 2026 1st rd picks (rights to swap 1st rd picks in 2023, 2025), Rockets 2024, 2026 1st rd picks (rights to swap 1st rd picks in 2024, 2025), Grizzlies 2nd rd pick, Nuggets 2020 1st rd pick
Despite rumors that they are desperate to move Chris Paul (and Steven Adams), I think CP can be a great centerpiece going forward to shepherd the incoming rookies (and there are gonna be a ton in the next few years!). Furthermore, I think CP fits this team in a way that Westbrook didn't: namely, he'll keep the supporting cast active while Westbrook mostly left them standing around. I'm sure they're still trying to make big moves (throw Roberson and Shroeder in the trade rumors, as well), so this team will undoubtedly change a lot throughout the season. No telling what this team will be at this time next year. (Did anyone notice that they hired Dave Bliss as an assistant? Hmmmmmm.....that's a name I never thought I'd hear again)
Over/Under (31.5): I'm going way over
I think this team is lumpy and weird but there's enough veteran presence to keep the team straight and enough youth to keep mixing it up. Yeah, there are trades to make but I suspect this'll be a better-than-you-think kinda team, though I don't have them making the playoffs.
Wolves
Out:
Cam Reynolds, CJ Williams, Jared Terrell, Mitch Creek, Anthony Tolliver, Derrick Rose, Jerryd Bayless, Luol Deng, Taj Gibson, Dario Saric, Tyus Jones, the rights to Lior Eliyahu, Bojan Dubljevic
I'm a big fan of Dario Saric and I thought he fit what they were doing and Tyus Jones is a hometown favorite (but realistically no better than a 3rd string PG), but otherwise I think the Wolves can comfortably move on from these losses.
Re-signed: (none)
In:
Jarrett Culver (2yr/$11.9m), Noah Vonleh (1yr/$2m), Shabazz Napier, Traveon Graham, Jake Layman, Jordan Bell, Naz Reid (4yr/$6.1m), Jordan McLaughlin, Jaylen Nowell, Kelan Martin,
Coupla intriguing draft picks (Culver, Reid), coupla youngsters looking for another shot (Bell, Vonleh, Layman), coupla edge of the league guys (Graham, Napier), and some dudes I never heard of (McLaughlin, Nowell, Martin). Calling this a 'mixed bag' would really be overstating it, don't ya think?
Over/Under (35.5): I got the under
I still believe in KAT and Wiggins and Dieng, too, but they're paying way too much for way too little and that's a shame. I just don't see this team getting off the ground this season. (Look for Robert Covington to be the prized trade bait all through January) Next season will loosen up the cap and they'll have a sense of where to go with Bates-Diop, Okogie, Culver and Reid.
2019-20 NBA Pre-Season (Southwest Division)
Rockets
Out:
Trevon Duval, Vince Edwards, Iman Shumpert, Kenneth Faried, Chris Paul, Chris Chiozza, Deyonta Davis, Marko Todorovic, 1st rd draft picks: 2024 (top 4 protected), 2025 (top 10 protected), 2026 (top 4 protected), (OKC gets 1st rd pick swaps for 2021 and 2025),
Paul for Russell Westbrook is a pretty good swap for the Rockets (younger, cheaper, faster, might be a better fit with Harden). They got good minutes out of Faried last year, thought they might keep him around. The other never looked like they were going to work and they don't care about draft picks these days.
Re-signed:
Isaiah Hartenstein (guaranteed his contract beyond 2019), Danuel House (3yr; $11.5m) Austin Rivers (2yr/$4.5m), Gerald Green (1yr), Eric Gordon (4yr/$75.6m), Nene Hilario (2yr/$20m)
All of these deals seems weird to me. They got Rivers to come back at a cheap price but then broke the bank for Gordon...? Green is hurt (may be out for the year) and I'm not sure what Nene gives them at this point. I heard buzz about Hartenstein last summer but not this summer, so it seems weird that they'd re-up him now. House came and went last year, seems odd they'd pay him now.
Newly signed:
Tyson Chandler (1yr/$2.6m), Ben McLemore (2yr/$4m), Thabo Sefolosha (1yr), Jaron Blossongame (1yr), Ryan Anderson, Shamorie Ponds, Chris Clemons, Ray Spalding,
Meh. They're filling out the roster at a reasonable rate, I suppose, but does Chandler really have anything left to give? And don't we already know that McLemore, Sefolosha and Anderon don't have anything left to give? And Blossongame, Ponds and Spalding have already bounced around so much without making a dent. This is a weird supporting cast they've put together.
Over/under (53.5): I got the over
Yeah, I've said nothing good about any of the off-season moves but they still have James Harden, the most efficient player in basketball, and Russell Westbrook, who is a crazy person that doesn't want to lose. Along, with Gordon, Capela, Tucker and whatever those signings give them, that should bring in a lot of W's.
Spurs
Out:
Ben Moore, Dante Cunningham, Donatas Motiejunas, Quincy Pondexter, Davis Bertans, the rights to Nemanja Dangubic
Bertans nails 3's like no one I've ever seen but the rest of these guys are replaceable.
Re-signed:
Rudy Gay (2yr/$32m), Derrick White (team exercised option; 2yr), Lonnie Walker IV (team exercised option; 2yr), Dejounte Murray (4yr/$64m extension)
Gay has had a weird run in his NBA career but I think he's a good fit with the Spurs and even at his age and declining productivity, I think this is still a pretty good deal for the team. I'm cool with nailing down these option years, too, a sign that they've drafted well lately. I would've liked to see Murray blow up before paying him, but I'm confident if the Spurs like him, he must be good.
Newly signed:
Keldon Johnson (4yr/$4m guaranteed), Luka Samanic (2yr/$5.5m), Trey Lyles (2yr/$11m), Quindarry Weatherspoon, Dedric Lawson
I don't know Samanic but he was well regarded in mock drafts all year long. I thought Johnson's performance at Kentucky left a lot to be desired , but the Spurs did well to snag him late in the 1st round. I like Lyles, he's big and versatile, I think he's got a good chance to finally fit in in San Anton. I think they have plans for Weatherspoon and Lawson, curious to see if they get any run.
Over/Under (46.5): I got the under
Just under but I've got them sneaking into the playoffs at #8 (which would be a rematch with the Nuggets in my projection).
Pelicans
Out:
Anthony Davis, Cheick Diallo, Stanley Johnson, Trevon Bluiett, Christian Wood, Elfrid Peyton, Ian Clark, Jordan Crawford, Julius Randle, Solomon Hill, Dairis Bertans
That's an amazing amount of talent leaving here...so why have the Pelicans struggled to make the post-season or do anything once they're there for so many years? Obviously losing Davis is massive but the return was pretty good and losing Hill is a godsend. Randle seems likely to finally find a home with NYK (a dubious achievement), while Johnson, Diallo, Wood, Peyton go off to see if they can actually play in this league.
Re-signed:
Frank Jackson (guaranteed upcoming season), Darius Miller (2yr/$14.5m), Kenrich Williams (guaranteed upcoming season),
Like these guys and the money isn't onerous, so all nice moves.
Newly signed:
Zion Williamson (4yr/$45m), Lonzo Ball, Brandon Ingram, Josh Hart, Derrick Favors, Jaxson Hayes (4yr/$20m), Nickeal Alexander-Walker (4yr/$14.3m), JJ Reddick (2yr/$26.5m), Nicolo Melli (2yr/$8m), Cody Martin (3yr/$4.5m), Josh Gray, Zylan Cheatham, Josh Perkins, Lakers 1st rd picks (2021, 2022, 2025, pick swaps for 2023 and 2024), 2021 2nd rd pick, Warriors 2023 2nd rd pick
Ball is gonna be reborn in New Orleans, Ingram didn't get his extension so he'll be balling all year, Hart will get a chance to just play ball (instead of being a SoCal celebrity), Favors will get a chance to redefine his game, Hayes could be a monster, Alexader-Walker (can we just call him NAW?) may be the surprise ROY candidate this year, Reddick and Melli make an interesting tandem from the perimeter. Oh...but what about Zion? My initial thought was that he would kinda dominate at first (because he's left handed) but then everyone would kinda get used to him by the end of the season; but now that he's starting off injured, I'm thinking the team will have to be careful with him, meaning his rookie year might be kinda sloppy and stop-start. I get that he's exciting as hell but I can't help thinking that he will not have the career longevity that we're all hoping for, the dude is an offensive lineman, that's gonna wreck his knees and ankles over time. I'm rooting for him but he has Kerry Wood written all over him. Or he could be the greatest of all time...you know...either way.
Over/Under (39.5): I'm going under
I think this team will be fun to watch (I love the youth movements, myself) but I don't see them getting a lot of W's. Built for the future not the now.
Mavericks
Out:
Devin Harris, Dirk Nowitzki, Salah Mejri, Trey Burke, Kostas Antetokounpo, Daryl Macon, rights to Deividas Sirvydis, rights to Satnam Singh, 2021 2nd rd pick, 2023 2nd rd pick
Dirk has moved on, long live the Dirk! Now that Luka and Porizingis have arrived, it's time for the team's next act. And Devin Harris is gone, too! I thought they'd bring back Mejri, but the rest are better off elsewhere.
Re-signed:
Ryan Broekhoff (team guaranteed final year), Dwight Powell (3yr/$33m), Maxi Kleber (4yr/$35.9m), Dorian Finney-Smith (3yr/$12m), Kristaps Porzingis (5yr/$158m), JJ Barea (1yr/$2.6m), Justin Jackson (team exercised option; 2yr), Luka Doncic (team exercised option; 2yr)
Okay, I'm good with all of those (though I was surprised to see Barea back from last year's injury already).
In:
Seth Curry (4yr/$32m), Boban Marjanovic (2yr/$7m), Delon Wright,
Okay, good with all of these, too. These all feel like good moves.
2nd rd draftees, 2-way contracts, Exhibition 10, Waiver claims:
Antonius Cleveland, Josh Reaves, Isaiah Roby (3yr/$4.8m), Yudai Baba, Chad Brown,
I don't know any of these guys.
Over/Under (40.5): I'm going under
Close, but I haven't them coming up below the o/u and tied for 9th in the West. I'm looking forward to the Luka-Porzingis pairing and I think the supporting cast is nice but I don't think they're quite ready to challenge for the post-season just yet. Fun to watch but another year away, I'd say.
Grizzlies
Out:
Tyler Dorsey, Joakim Noah, Justin Holiday, Tyler Zeller, Avery Bradley, CJ Miles, Mike Conley, Julian Washburn, Jevon Carter, Chandler Parsons, Ivan Rabb, Miles Plumlee (and Dwight Howard, Kyle Korver and Miles Plumlee came and went without suiting up, feels like Iguodala might join that list)
Losing Conley is the end of an era and losing Parsons is the end of an awful era. Otherwise the rest of these guys feel like can be replaced.
Re-signed:
Dillon Brooks (guaranteed contract for upcoming season), Jonas Valenciunas (3yr/$45m), Bruno Caboclo (guaranteed contract for upcoming season),
Valenciunas is a really great int'l player but his NBA days have been kinda hit and miss, but I think he fits the Grizzlies just fine, so good signing for them. Brooks and Caboclo are worth checking out for another year.
In:
Andre Iguodala, Ja Morant (4yr/$39.5m), Josh Jackson, DeAnthony Melton, Grayson Allen, Jae Crowder, Brandon Clarke (4yr/$12m), Solomon Hill, Tyus Jones (3yr/$26.4m), Marko Gaduric (2yr/$5.4m), John Konchar, Dusty Hannah, Bennie Boatright, Suns 2021 and 2022 2nd rd picks, Mavs 2021 and 2023 2nd rd picks, the rights to Satnam Singh
Iguodala has been the center of trade/buyout talk since the moment he arrived but if I were the Grizzlies I'd love for him to stay; but I reckon he'll get traded or waived by February (I'd to like to see him on the Pelicans, actually). Morant looks great in pre-season and has a decent shot at ROY (though I think this team won't be good enough to get him enough attention) and Clarke looks like a good fit for them, too. Jackson, Melton and Allen are reclamation projects, wouldn't be surprised to see all three get re-upped next summer. Crowder is a nice vet, Jones is a solid backup PG, and Hill is still around?
Over/Under (27.5): I'm going way under
This team is a muddle, this season is all about seeing what they've got for the future. I like Morant, Clarke and Melton to shine out and I think Jackson's athleticism and Allen's assholishness should be fun for the fans. I don't see a lot of W's for this team but they've metabolized the worst of their bad contracts, so now is the time to grow.
Out:
Trevon Duval, Vince Edwards, Iman Shumpert, Kenneth Faried, Chris Paul, Chris Chiozza, Deyonta Davis, Marko Todorovic, 1st rd draft picks: 2024 (top 4 protected), 2025 (top 10 protected), 2026 (top 4 protected), (OKC gets 1st rd pick swaps for 2021 and 2025),
Paul for Russell Westbrook is a pretty good swap for the Rockets (younger, cheaper, faster, might be a better fit with Harden). They got good minutes out of Faried last year, thought they might keep him around. The other never looked like they were going to work and they don't care about draft picks these days.
Re-signed:
Isaiah Hartenstein (guaranteed his contract beyond 2019), Danuel House (3yr; $11.5m) Austin Rivers (2yr/$4.5m), Gerald Green (1yr), Eric Gordon (4yr/$75.6m), Nene Hilario (2yr/$20m)
All of these deals seems weird to me. They got Rivers to come back at a cheap price but then broke the bank for Gordon...? Green is hurt (may be out for the year) and I'm not sure what Nene gives them at this point. I heard buzz about Hartenstein last summer but not this summer, so it seems weird that they'd re-up him now. House came and went last year, seems odd they'd pay him now.
Newly signed:
Tyson Chandler (1yr/$2.6m), Ben McLemore (2yr/$4m), Thabo Sefolosha (1yr), Jaron Blossongame (1yr), Ryan Anderson, Shamorie Ponds, Chris Clemons, Ray Spalding,
Meh. They're filling out the roster at a reasonable rate, I suppose, but does Chandler really have anything left to give? And don't we already know that McLemore, Sefolosha and Anderon don't have anything left to give? And Blossongame, Ponds and Spalding have already bounced around so much without making a dent. This is a weird supporting cast they've put together.
Over/under (53.5): I got the over
Yeah, I've said nothing good about any of the off-season moves but they still have James Harden, the most efficient player in basketball, and Russell Westbrook, who is a crazy person that doesn't want to lose. Along, with Gordon, Capela, Tucker and whatever those signings give them, that should bring in a lot of W's.
Spurs
Out:
Ben Moore, Dante Cunningham, Donatas Motiejunas, Quincy Pondexter, Davis Bertans, the rights to Nemanja Dangubic
Bertans nails 3's like no one I've ever seen but the rest of these guys are replaceable.
Re-signed:
Rudy Gay (2yr/$32m), Derrick White (team exercised option; 2yr), Lonnie Walker IV (team exercised option; 2yr), Dejounte Murray (4yr/$64m extension)
Gay has had a weird run in his NBA career but I think he's a good fit with the Spurs and even at his age and declining productivity, I think this is still a pretty good deal for the team. I'm cool with nailing down these option years, too, a sign that they've drafted well lately. I would've liked to see Murray blow up before paying him, but I'm confident if the Spurs like him, he must be good.
Newly signed:
Keldon Johnson (4yr/$4m guaranteed), Luka Samanic (2yr/$5.5m), Trey Lyles (2yr/$11m), Quindarry Weatherspoon, Dedric Lawson
I don't know Samanic but he was well regarded in mock drafts all year long. I thought Johnson's performance at Kentucky left a lot to be desired , but the Spurs did well to snag him late in the 1st round. I like Lyles, he's big and versatile, I think he's got a good chance to finally fit in in San Anton. I think they have plans for Weatherspoon and Lawson, curious to see if they get any run.
Over/Under (46.5): I got the under
Just under but I've got them sneaking into the playoffs at #8 (which would be a rematch with the Nuggets in my projection).
Pelicans
Out:
Anthony Davis, Cheick Diallo, Stanley Johnson, Trevon Bluiett, Christian Wood, Elfrid Peyton, Ian Clark, Jordan Crawford, Julius Randle, Solomon Hill, Dairis Bertans
That's an amazing amount of talent leaving here...so why have the Pelicans struggled to make the post-season or do anything once they're there for so many years? Obviously losing Davis is massive but the return was pretty good and losing Hill is a godsend. Randle seems likely to finally find a home with NYK (a dubious achievement), while Johnson, Diallo, Wood, Peyton go off to see if they can actually play in this league.
Re-signed:
Frank Jackson (guaranteed upcoming season), Darius Miller (2yr/$14.5m), Kenrich Williams (guaranteed upcoming season),
Like these guys and the money isn't onerous, so all nice moves.
Newly signed:
Zion Williamson (4yr/$45m), Lonzo Ball, Brandon Ingram, Josh Hart, Derrick Favors, Jaxson Hayes (4yr/$20m), Nickeal Alexander-Walker (4yr/$14.3m), JJ Reddick (2yr/$26.5m), Nicolo Melli (2yr/$8m), Cody Martin (3yr/$4.5m), Josh Gray, Zylan Cheatham, Josh Perkins, Lakers 1st rd picks (2021, 2022, 2025, pick swaps for 2023 and 2024), 2021 2nd rd pick, Warriors 2023 2nd rd pick
Ball is gonna be reborn in New Orleans, Ingram didn't get his extension so he'll be balling all year, Hart will get a chance to just play ball (instead of being a SoCal celebrity), Favors will get a chance to redefine his game, Hayes could be a monster, Alexader-Walker (can we just call him NAW?) may be the surprise ROY candidate this year, Reddick and Melli make an interesting tandem from the perimeter. Oh...but what about Zion? My initial thought was that he would kinda dominate at first (because he's left handed) but then everyone would kinda get used to him by the end of the season; but now that he's starting off injured, I'm thinking the team will have to be careful with him, meaning his rookie year might be kinda sloppy and stop-start. I get that he's exciting as hell but I can't help thinking that he will not have the career longevity that we're all hoping for, the dude is an offensive lineman, that's gonna wreck his knees and ankles over time. I'm rooting for him but he has Kerry Wood written all over him. Or he could be the greatest of all time...you know...either way.
Over/Under (39.5): I'm going under
I think this team will be fun to watch (I love the youth movements, myself) but I don't see them getting a lot of W's. Built for the future not the now.
Mavericks
Out:
Devin Harris, Dirk Nowitzki, Salah Mejri, Trey Burke, Kostas Antetokounpo, Daryl Macon, rights to Deividas Sirvydis, rights to Satnam Singh, 2021 2nd rd pick, 2023 2nd rd pick
Dirk has moved on, long live the Dirk! Now that Luka and Porizingis have arrived, it's time for the team's next act. And Devin Harris is gone, too! I thought they'd bring back Mejri, but the rest are better off elsewhere.
Re-signed:
Ryan Broekhoff (team guaranteed final year), Dwight Powell (3yr/$33m), Maxi Kleber (4yr/$35.9m), Dorian Finney-Smith (3yr/$12m), Kristaps Porzingis (5yr/$158m), JJ Barea (1yr/$2.6m), Justin Jackson (team exercised option; 2yr), Luka Doncic (team exercised option; 2yr)
Okay, I'm good with all of those (though I was surprised to see Barea back from last year's injury already).
In:
Seth Curry (4yr/$32m), Boban Marjanovic (2yr/$7m), Delon Wright,
Okay, good with all of these, too. These all feel like good moves.
2nd rd draftees, 2-way contracts, Exhibition 10, Waiver claims:
Antonius Cleveland, Josh Reaves, Isaiah Roby (3yr/$4.8m), Yudai Baba, Chad Brown,
I don't know any of these guys.
Over/Under (40.5): I'm going under
Close, but I haven't them coming up below the o/u and tied for 9th in the West. I'm looking forward to the Luka-Porzingis pairing and I think the supporting cast is nice but I don't think they're quite ready to challenge for the post-season just yet. Fun to watch but another year away, I'd say.
Grizzlies
Out:
Tyler Dorsey, Joakim Noah, Justin Holiday, Tyler Zeller, Avery Bradley, CJ Miles, Mike Conley, Julian Washburn, Jevon Carter, Chandler Parsons, Ivan Rabb, Miles Plumlee (and Dwight Howard, Kyle Korver and Miles Plumlee came and went without suiting up, feels like Iguodala might join that list)
Losing Conley is the end of an era and losing Parsons is the end of an awful era. Otherwise the rest of these guys feel like can be replaced.
Re-signed:
Dillon Brooks (guaranteed contract for upcoming season), Jonas Valenciunas (3yr/$45m), Bruno Caboclo (guaranteed contract for upcoming season),
Valenciunas is a really great int'l player but his NBA days have been kinda hit and miss, but I think he fits the Grizzlies just fine, so good signing for them. Brooks and Caboclo are worth checking out for another year.
In:
Andre Iguodala, Ja Morant (4yr/$39.5m), Josh Jackson, DeAnthony Melton, Grayson Allen, Jae Crowder, Brandon Clarke (4yr/$12m), Solomon Hill, Tyus Jones (3yr/$26.4m), Marko Gaduric (2yr/$5.4m), John Konchar, Dusty Hannah, Bennie Boatright, Suns 2021 and 2022 2nd rd picks, Mavs 2021 and 2023 2nd rd picks, the rights to Satnam Singh
Iguodala has been the center of trade/buyout talk since the moment he arrived but if I were the Grizzlies I'd love for him to stay; but I reckon he'll get traded or waived by February (I'd to like to see him on the Pelicans, actually). Morant looks great in pre-season and has a decent shot at ROY (though I think this team won't be good enough to get him enough attention) and Clarke looks like a good fit for them, too. Jackson, Melton and Allen are reclamation projects, wouldn't be surprised to see all three get re-upped next summer. Crowder is a nice vet, Jones is a solid backup PG, and Hill is still around?
Over/Under (27.5): I'm going way under
This team is a muddle, this season is all about seeing what they've got for the future. I like Morant, Clarke and Melton to shine out and I think Jackson's athleticism and Allen's assholishness should be fun for the fans. I don't see a lot of W's for this team but they've metabolized the worst of their bad contracts, so now is the time to grow.
Tuesday, October 22, 2019
2019-20 NBA Pre-season (Pacific Division)
Clippers
Out:
Angel Delgado, Garrett Temple, Wilson Chandler, Sindarius Thornwell, Tyrone Wallace, Danilo Gallinari, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, 2020 1st rd pick (top 14 protected), 2021 1st rd pick, 2022 1st rd Pick, 2024 1st rd pick, 2026 1st rd pick, (OKC holds 1st rd pick swaps in 2023, 2025),
With SGA and several 1st rd picks out the door, now is the time for the Clippers. There are a lot of nice players there but the new look will absorb these losses without much problem.
Re-signed:
Lou Williams (guaranteed contract through 2021), Ivica Zubac (4yr/$21m), Rodney McGruder (3yr/$15m), Patrick Beverley (3yr/$40m), JaMychel Green (2yr/$9.8m)
A lot of money (and draft picks) out but these are all good players who seem well suited for each other.
In:
Kawhi Leonard (3yr/$103m), Moe Harkless (trade; 1yr), Mfiondu Kabengele (2yr/$4m), Paul George (3yr/$105m), Patrick Patterson (1yr/$2.3m), Amir Coffey, Terance Mann (4yr/$6.2m), Derrick Walton Jr., Johnathon Motley, Heat 2023 1st rd pick (top 14 protected), rights to Mathias Lessort
Okay...future is here. I like all these moves, I think they'll fit together, too (eventually).
Over/Under (53.5): I'm going under
Yeah, there's a lot of talent in and it seems to mesh. But George is already hurt and you know Kawhi's minutes will be monitored so the anchors of the rotation will appear and disappear throughout the season. Yes, I have the Clippers winning it all but I have them going into the playoffs as the 6th seed. I just don't think the regular season (especially road games and back-to-backs) will be that motivating to them. This team was built for the post-season, slogging through the next six months to get there might bore them.
Lakers
Out:
Lance Stephenson, Mike Muscala, Reggie Bullock, Tyson Chandler, Johnathon Williams, Lonzo Ball, Josh Hart, Brandon Ingram, Isaac Bonga, Jemerrio Jones, Moritz Wagner, 2022 1st rd pick (unprotected), 2022 2nd rd pick, 1st rd pick swap to the Pelicans,
Well, the celebrated youth movement (Ball, Ingram, Hart, Wagner, Bonga) and a boatload of future draft picks have been swapped out for a veteran squad that has more top level talent, though fewer dirty work players. This is the Laker way, it was only a matter of time before they made this choice.
Re-signed:
JaVale McGee (2yr/$8.2m), Kentavius Caldwell-Pope (2yr/$16.6m), Alex Caruso (2yr/%5.5m), Rajon Rondo (2yr/$5.2m), Kyle Kuzma (team picked up option; 2yr)
Obviously Kuzma is a keeper (and since Ball, Ingram, Hart, Clarkson, Randle, Bonga, Wagner and Nance are gone, the only youngun they still have). But the rest? McGee has his moments but you gotta expect fewer and fewer of those. KCP and Rondo are reliable-ish vets and Caruso (the White Mamba!) seems like a real nice guy. Meh.
In:
Danny Green (2yr/$30m), DeMarcus Cousins (1yr/$3.5m), Quinn Cook (2yr/$6m), Jared Dudley (1yr/$2.6m), Troy Daniels (1yr/$2m), Avery Bradley (2yr/$9.8m), Dwight Howard (1yr/$2.6m), Reggie Hearn,
Green is now in charge of taking the blame for everything Lebron wants to deflect (he better study up on Chinese economics, I reckon!). Cousins is already out for the year (another year, another bad injury for Boogie). Dudley has long been overrated, Bradley is on the downside (but could be a useful perimeter defender), and Cook will know his role. Dwight Howard is the intriguing signing here: if he really is ready to play ball then I can see him having a nice year (but wildly better than what Tyson Chandler did last year? Ehh, maybe).
2nd rd draftees, 2-way contracts, Exhibition 10
Devontae Cook (1yr), Talen Horton-Tucker (2yr/$2.4m), Kostas Antetokounpo,
If these guys do anything, it'll be a bonus.
Over/Under (50.5): I got the under (but just barely)
I'm going under because I think wherever Lebron goes he brings highs and lows: I fully expect the Lakers to have a few runs where they look unstoppable and other stretches where they look like they'd get bounced in the NCAA tournament--that's just how Lebron teams roll. I think Lebron watches his minutes and throughout the season is selective about his effort. So even though I think Anthony Davis has an MVP season, the talent around him will come and go (better than the Pelicans but not vastly better) with an eye toward the post-season rather than the regular season. I've got them winning 50 games and finishing 5th in the West and while they could be way better than that, I just think they looking to the post-season will be their focus and 50 wins will suit them just fine.
Warriors
Out:
Kevin Durant, Marcus Derrickson, Andrew Bogut, DeMarcus Cousins, Jonas Jerebko, Quinn Cook, Andre Iguodala, Damian Jones, Shaun Livingston, Jordan Bell, Alfonzo McKinnie, 1st rd pick (top 4 protected), 2020 1st rd picks (top 20 protected), 2024 2nd rd pick, 2026 2nd rd pick, 2021 2nd rd pick, 2023 2nd rd pick, rights to Miye Oni
Wow! That is the core of many championships that just walked out the door. Durant is a Hall of Famer, Cousins is an all-time badass (though beset by injuries), Iguodala is maybe the most underappreciated player of all time, Livingston was a regular 6th man candidate for many years (though he was washed last season), Bogut was the original star in this champioship run (although not a big loss at this point), Cook and Jones and McKinney and Bell were the young core that was gonna grow with the team and even Jerebko had moments where he gave a real spark off the bench. And, oh by the way, Klay Thompson is out for the season. Yipes! That is an amazing amount of talent to lose in one summer--and they've given up a handful of 1st rd picks, too! Jeez, not since the old Florida Marlins back in the 1990s have we seen a team that just seemed to drain out so much skill.
Re-signed:
Klay Thompson (5yr/$189.9m), Kevon Looney (3yr/$15m), Draymond Green (4yr/$99.7m),
Re-signing Klay is a bit bittersweet considering that he'll be out for the year, but it needed to be done, so good deal nonetheless. Looney really became a part of their offense last season and gutted out a gnarly injury through the playoffs, good move to reward him. Signing Draymond now solidifies the Warrior core for the foreseeable future (and makes that light summer 2020 free agent class even lighter), big money that must kinda hurt going into what can only be a down year, but the right move.
In:
Jordan Poole (2yr/$4m), D'Angelo Russell (trade), Alen Smailagic (4yr/$61.m), Eric Paschell (3yr/$4.2m), Omari Spellman (trade), Willie Cauley-Stein (1yr/$2.5m), Glenn Robinson (2yr/$19.m), Alec Burks (1yr/$2.3m), Marquese Chriss (1yr), (rights to Lior Eliyahu), Ky Bowman, Damion Lee
The way last season ended for them (the end of the dynasty) there was pretty much no way that this off-season could be anything other than heartbreaking. Okay, starting at the level of low expectations, I think they did pretty good here. Plucking D'angelo Russell away from the Nets was a good move that preserves some offense (I think he'll be just fine for the Warriors, he'll score and make plays), getting Cauley-Stein and Spellman (two new toys for Draymond to play with) will give them a better ability to transition than the haters will acknowledge, Poole and Paschall were good draft picks and apparently they adore Smailagic and then Burks will give them a little offensive depth off the bench. Obviously this isn't the 5-straight Western Conference champs but considering what they lost, they still have plenty of talent left.
Over/Under (47.5): I'm going under (but just barely)
That o/u seems a little high to me--but only because I would assume betters would be more pessimistic. I've got them winning 46 games and going into the playoffs as the 7th seed, which would be a pretty great season for them with plenty more to look forward to in 2020-21.
Kings
Out:
Frank Mason, Alec Burks, Corey Brewer, Kosta Koufos, Troy Williams, Willie Cauley-Stein, BJ Johnson, Vanja Marinkovic
I'm a big Willie Cauley fan (re: apologist) and I think his absence is going to make more of a difference than the haters realize: I think his transition game created a lot of open shots for Hield, open lanes for Fox and chances to gamble on defense for everyone; I get that WCS is not a stat sheet filler-upper but at all the little things you don't notice, I think he was great and transitioning forward without him may be with them all season long. Otherwise, I'm cool with losing all these guys: Mason was nice but I thought a tad overrated, Burks and Brewer really didn't fit their needs, Koufos was nice but replaceable and Williams, Johnson and Marikovic are fungible commodities.
Re-signed:
Harrison Barnes (4yr/$85m)
I'm cool with this. I thought the trade for Barnes last season was the perfect move for them and, okay, the money is a little high but he's the guy they want, so why not pay him? Barnes is not merely the adult in the room, he's the right adult for them: solid pro, handles his business, performs his role on both ends and doesn't try to do too much, exactly the security blanket this youth movement needs.
In:
Cory Joseph (3yr/$37m), Trevor Ariza (2yr/$25m), Dwayne Dedmon (3yr/$40m), Richaun Holmes (2yr/$9.8m), Tyler Lydon (2yr)
Joseph is a reliable 2nd string PG, Ariza brings veteran smarts and big play ability, Dedmon will contribute down low and fits well with Bagley, and Holmes is great big man off the bench. (Hmmm...not sure what Tyler Lydon offers, but it's a non-guaranteed deal). If the youngsters all take a step forward then these vets will have room to make good contributions and this could be the shocker team of the season.
2nd rd draftees, 2-way contracts, Exhibition 10:
Kyle Guy, Justin James (3yr/$4.2m), Tyler Ulis, Hollis Thompson,
I think Ulis is kinda perfect off the bench for the Nuggets, not sure what he brings to any other team, unfortunately.
Over/Under (37.5): I'm going over
The ceiling of this team is amazingly high: if the youngsters each get a little better and each of those vets does what they're supposed to do, this team really could be awesome. I'm guessing it'll be a tougher road than that as they are in the tougher conference and arguably the toughest division. And, again, I know this sounds crazy but they're gonna miss Willie Cauley-Stein more than they realize. And what to do with Bogdan Bogdanovic might become a problem, too: in the final year of his deal they have to decide by January whether he's in their future or trade bait. Outside of that, I don't see any moves to make, so if it starts wobbly...well, it'll stay wobbly. I think they'll be good and in the contention for the 8th seed but I think they falter down the stretch. (That said, this team has perhaps the best potential to overachieve than any other team in the league)
Suns
Out:
Jimmer Fredette, Ray Spalding, George King, Dragan Bender, Jamal Crawford, Richaun Holmes, Troy Daniels, TJ Warren, Josh Jackson, DeAnthony Melton, 2020 1st rd pick (top 7 protected),
I still don't understand the draft day TJ Warren trade (uh, giveaway), guess they thought they needed the roster space; but I always found him to be an under appreciated scoring SF and won't be as easy to replace as the Suns suppose. I'm okay with giving up on Dragan Bender (I never could figure out his game: what does he do?) but I'm a little surprised they were so quick to cut bait on Josh Jackson (who didn't get his extension picked up by the Grizzlies either) or DeAnthony Melton (dude had some good moments, could've been good in a Suns uni). I forgot they even had Jamal Crawford and they had no real use for Holmes, I guess. The other (Fredette, Spalding, King, Daniels) are easy come/easy go guys.
Re-signed:
Tyler Johnson (exercised player option for 1yr/$19m), Kelly Oubre (2yr/$30m), Deandre Ayton (team exercised option; 2yr), Mikal Bridges (team exercised option; 2yr),
Johnson is perfectly reasonable 2nd string PG (although $19m is a steep price tag for that role). Rolling with Ayton, Oubre and Bridges is where the Suns are for the next 3-5 years and I think after years of poor drafts (like recently cast off Bender and Jackson), they've finally found a young core they can build around. I don't expect a lot of W's this season but the future looks better than it has in years.
In:
Jalen Lecque (4yr/$6.1m), Aron Baynes,Ty Jerome (2yr/$4.5m), Dario Saric, Cameron Johnson (2yr/$8.3m), Jevon Carter, Ricky Rubio (3yr/$51m), Frank Kaminsky (2yr/$9.8m), Cheick Diallo (2yr/$1.7m), Jared Harper
I'm a big Ricky Rubio fan and I think the scoring potential of this team will match his efforts, but defensively he doesn't bring much and no one else does either (re: they're gonna lose a lot of 124-116 kinda games). I'm also a big Dario Saric fan but I kinda think he's likely to be frustrated by losing and could turn inward (I already do not expect him to be back in Phoenix next year). I like Baynes, he'll bring some toughness and veteran smarts that this team needs; but he won't bring enough production to really make a difference. Cam Johnson and Ty Jerome are either part of their upswing in drafting or a return to the years of busts (I'm not optimistic about either of these guys, unfortunately). Kaminsky needs a second chance but I don't see what he brings to the Suns (or vice versa), this is one of the most puzzling signings of the summer. Diallo, too, is still young enough to turn into something and unlike Kaminsky, I think Phoenix could be a good spot for him to get some low-key minutes. No idea who Lecque, Carter and Harper are.
Over/Under (28.5): I'm going under
I think they'll score a lot of points but they'll give up even more night in/night out. Rubio, Booker, Oubre, Saric and Ayton is a nice starting five but the depth gets dicey after that and the lack of fit between any of these players does not suggest cohesion will be coming. I just don't see how this team wins games at all.
Out:
Angel Delgado, Garrett Temple, Wilson Chandler, Sindarius Thornwell, Tyrone Wallace, Danilo Gallinari, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, 2020 1st rd pick (top 14 protected), 2021 1st rd pick, 2022 1st rd Pick, 2024 1st rd pick, 2026 1st rd pick, (OKC holds 1st rd pick swaps in 2023, 2025),
With SGA and several 1st rd picks out the door, now is the time for the Clippers. There are a lot of nice players there but the new look will absorb these losses without much problem.
Re-signed:
Lou Williams (guaranteed contract through 2021), Ivica Zubac (4yr/$21m), Rodney McGruder (3yr/$15m), Patrick Beverley (3yr/$40m), JaMychel Green (2yr/$9.8m)
A lot of money (and draft picks) out but these are all good players who seem well suited for each other.
In:
Kawhi Leonard (3yr/$103m), Moe Harkless (trade; 1yr), Mfiondu Kabengele (2yr/$4m), Paul George (3yr/$105m), Patrick Patterson (1yr/$2.3m), Amir Coffey, Terance Mann (4yr/$6.2m), Derrick Walton Jr., Johnathon Motley, Heat 2023 1st rd pick (top 14 protected), rights to Mathias Lessort
Okay...future is here. I like all these moves, I think they'll fit together, too (eventually).
Over/Under (53.5): I'm going under
Yeah, there's a lot of talent in and it seems to mesh. But George is already hurt and you know Kawhi's minutes will be monitored so the anchors of the rotation will appear and disappear throughout the season. Yes, I have the Clippers winning it all but I have them going into the playoffs as the 6th seed. I just don't think the regular season (especially road games and back-to-backs) will be that motivating to them. This team was built for the post-season, slogging through the next six months to get there might bore them.
Lakers
Out:
Lance Stephenson, Mike Muscala, Reggie Bullock, Tyson Chandler, Johnathon Williams, Lonzo Ball, Josh Hart, Brandon Ingram, Isaac Bonga, Jemerrio Jones, Moritz Wagner, 2022 1st rd pick (unprotected), 2022 2nd rd pick, 1st rd pick swap to the Pelicans,
Well, the celebrated youth movement (Ball, Ingram, Hart, Wagner, Bonga) and a boatload of future draft picks have been swapped out for a veteran squad that has more top level talent, though fewer dirty work players. This is the Laker way, it was only a matter of time before they made this choice.
Re-signed:
JaVale McGee (2yr/$8.2m), Kentavius Caldwell-Pope (2yr/$16.6m), Alex Caruso (2yr/%5.5m), Rajon Rondo (2yr/$5.2m), Kyle Kuzma (team picked up option; 2yr)
Obviously Kuzma is a keeper (and since Ball, Ingram, Hart, Clarkson, Randle, Bonga, Wagner and Nance are gone, the only youngun they still have). But the rest? McGee has his moments but you gotta expect fewer and fewer of those. KCP and Rondo are reliable-ish vets and Caruso (the White Mamba!) seems like a real nice guy. Meh.
In:
Danny Green (2yr/$30m), DeMarcus Cousins (1yr/$3.5m), Quinn Cook (2yr/$6m), Jared Dudley (1yr/$2.6m), Troy Daniels (1yr/$2m), Avery Bradley (2yr/$9.8m), Dwight Howard (1yr/$2.6m), Reggie Hearn,
Green is now in charge of taking the blame for everything Lebron wants to deflect (he better study up on Chinese economics, I reckon!). Cousins is already out for the year (another year, another bad injury for Boogie). Dudley has long been overrated, Bradley is on the downside (but could be a useful perimeter defender), and Cook will know his role. Dwight Howard is the intriguing signing here: if he really is ready to play ball then I can see him having a nice year (but wildly better than what Tyson Chandler did last year? Ehh, maybe).
2nd rd draftees, 2-way contracts, Exhibition 10
Devontae Cook (1yr), Talen Horton-Tucker (2yr/$2.4m), Kostas Antetokounpo,
If these guys do anything, it'll be a bonus.
Over/Under (50.5): I got the under (but just barely)
I'm going under because I think wherever Lebron goes he brings highs and lows: I fully expect the Lakers to have a few runs where they look unstoppable and other stretches where they look like they'd get bounced in the NCAA tournament--that's just how Lebron teams roll. I think Lebron watches his minutes and throughout the season is selective about his effort. So even though I think Anthony Davis has an MVP season, the talent around him will come and go (better than the Pelicans but not vastly better) with an eye toward the post-season rather than the regular season. I've got them winning 50 games and finishing 5th in the West and while they could be way better than that, I just think they looking to the post-season will be their focus and 50 wins will suit them just fine.
Warriors
Out:
Kevin Durant, Marcus Derrickson, Andrew Bogut, DeMarcus Cousins, Jonas Jerebko, Quinn Cook, Andre Iguodala, Damian Jones, Shaun Livingston, Jordan Bell, Alfonzo McKinnie, 1st rd pick (top 4 protected), 2020 1st rd picks (top 20 protected), 2024 2nd rd pick, 2026 2nd rd pick, 2021 2nd rd pick, 2023 2nd rd pick, rights to Miye Oni
Wow! That is the core of many championships that just walked out the door. Durant is a Hall of Famer, Cousins is an all-time badass (though beset by injuries), Iguodala is maybe the most underappreciated player of all time, Livingston was a regular 6th man candidate for many years (though he was washed last season), Bogut was the original star in this champioship run (although not a big loss at this point), Cook and Jones and McKinney and Bell were the young core that was gonna grow with the team and even Jerebko had moments where he gave a real spark off the bench. And, oh by the way, Klay Thompson is out for the season. Yipes! That is an amazing amount of talent to lose in one summer--and they've given up a handful of 1st rd picks, too! Jeez, not since the old Florida Marlins back in the 1990s have we seen a team that just seemed to drain out so much skill.
Re-signed:
Klay Thompson (5yr/$189.9m), Kevon Looney (3yr/$15m), Draymond Green (4yr/$99.7m),
Re-signing Klay is a bit bittersweet considering that he'll be out for the year, but it needed to be done, so good deal nonetheless. Looney really became a part of their offense last season and gutted out a gnarly injury through the playoffs, good move to reward him. Signing Draymond now solidifies the Warrior core for the foreseeable future (and makes that light summer 2020 free agent class even lighter), big money that must kinda hurt going into what can only be a down year, but the right move.
In:
Jordan Poole (2yr/$4m), D'Angelo Russell (trade), Alen Smailagic (4yr/$61.m), Eric Paschell (3yr/$4.2m), Omari Spellman (trade), Willie Cauley-Stein (1yr/$2.5m), Glenn Robinson (2yr/$19.m), Alec Burks (1yr/$2.3m), Marquese Chriss (1yr), (rights to Lior Eliyahu), Ky Bowman, Damion Lee
The way last season ended for them (the end of the dynasty) there was pretty much no way that this off-season could be anything other than heartbreaking. Okay, starting at the level of low expectations, I think they did pretty good here. Plucking D'angelo Russell away from the Nets was a good move that preserves some offense (I think he'll be just fine for the Warriors, he'll score and make plays), getting Cauley-Stein and Spellman (two new toys for Draymond to play with) will give them a better ability to transition than the haters will acknowledge, Poole and Paschall were good draft picks and apparently they adore Smailagic and then Burks will give them a little offensive depth off the bench. Obviously this isn't the 5-straight Western Conference champs but considering what they lost, they still have plenty of talent left.
Over/Under (47.5): I'm going under (but just barely)
That o/u seems a little high to me--but only because I would assume betters would be more pessimistic. I've got them winning 46 games and going into the playoffs as the 7th seed, which would be a pretty great season for them with plenty more to look forward to in 2020-21.
Kings
Out:
Frank Mason, Alec Burks, Corey Brewer, Kosta Koufos, Troy Williams, Willie Cauley-Stein, BJ Johnson, Vanja Marinkovic
I'm a big Willie Cauley fan (re: apologist) and I think his absence is going to make more of a difference than the haters realize: I think his transition game created a lot of open shots for Hield, open lanes for Fox and chances to gamble on defense for everyone; I get that WCS is not a stat sheet filler-upper but at all the little things you don't notice, I think he was great and transitioning forward without him may be with them all season long. Otherwise, I'm cool with losing all these guys: Mason was nice but I thought a tad overrated, Burks and Brewer really didn't fit their needs, Koufos was nice but replaceable and Williams, Johnson and Marikovic are fungible commodities.
Re-signed:
Harrison Barnes (4yr/$85m)
I'm cool with this. I thought the trade for Barnes last season was the perfect move for them and, okay, the money is a little high but he's the guy they want, so why not pay him? Barnes is not merely the adult in the room, he's the right adult for them: solid pro, handles his business, performs his role on both ends and doesn't try to do too much, exactly the security blanket this youth movement needs.
In:
Cory Joseph (3yr/$37m), Trevor Ariza (2yr/$25m), Dwayne Dedmon (3yr/$40m), Richaun Holmes (2yr/$9.8m), Tyler Lydon (2yr)
Joseph is a reliable 2nd string PG, Ariza brings veteran smarts and big play ability, Dedmon will contribute down low and fits well with Bagley, and Holmes is great big man off the bench. (Hmmm...not sure what Tyler Lydon offers, but it's a non-guaranteed deal). If the youngsters all take a step forward then these vets will have room to make good contributions and this could be the shocker team of the season.
2nd rd draftees, 2-way contracts, Exhibition 10:
Kyle Guy, Justin James (3yr/$4.2m), Tyler Ulis, Hollis Thompson,
I think Ulis is kinda perfect off the bench for the Nuggets, not sure what he brings to any other team, unfortunately.
Over/Under (37.5): I'm going over
The ceiling of this team is amazingly high: if the youngsters each get a little better and each of those vets does what they're supposed to do, this team really could be awesome. I'm guessing it'll be a tougher road than that as they are in the tougher conference and arguably the toughest division. And, again, I know this sounds crazy but they're gonna miss Willie Cauley-Stein more than they realize. And what to do with Bogdan Bogdanovic might become a problem, too: in the final year of his deal they have to decide by January whether he's in their future or trade bait. Outside of that, I don't see any moves to make, so if it starts wobbly...well, it'll stay wobbly. I think they'll be good and in the contention for the 8th seed but I think they falter down the stretch. (That said, this team has perhaps the best potential to overachieve than any other team in the league)
Suns
Out:
Jimmer Fredette, Ray Spalding, George King, Dragan Bender, Jamal Crawford, Richaun Holmes, Troy Daniels, TJ Warren, Josh Jackson, DeAnthony Melton, 2020 1st rd pick (top 7 protected),
I still don't understand the draft day TJ Warren trade (uh, giveaway), guess they thought they needed the roster space; but I always found him to be an under appreciated scoring SF and won't be as easy to replace as the Suns suppose. I'm okay with giving up on Dragan Bender (I never could figure out his game: what does he do?) but I'm a little surprised they were so quick to cut bait on Josh Jackson (who didn't get his extension picked up by the Grizzlies either) or DeAnthony Melton (dude had some good moments, could've been good in a Suns uni). I forgot they even had Jamal Crawford and they had no real use for Holmes, I guess. The other (Fredette, Spalding, King, Daniels) are easy come/easy go guys.
Re-signed:
Tyler Johnson (exercised player option for 1yr/$19m), Kelly Oubre (2yr/$30m), Deandre Ayton (team exercised option; 2yr), Mikal Bridges (team exercised option; 2yr),
Johnson is perfectly reasonable 2nd string PG (although $19m is a steep price tag for that role). Rolling with Ayton, Oubre and Bridges is where the Suns are for the next 3-5 years and I think after years of poor drafts (like recently cast off Bender and Jackson), they've finally found a young core they can build around. I don't expect a lot of W's this season but the future looks better than it has in years.
In:
Jalen Lecque (4yr/$6.1m), Aron Baynes,Ty Jerome (2yr/$4.5m), Dario Saric, Cameron Johnson (2yr/$8.3m), Jevon Carter, Ricky Rubio (3yr/$51m), Frank Kaminsky (2yr/$9.8m), Cheick Diallo (2yr/$1.7m), Jared Harper
I'm a big Ricky Rubio fan and I think the scoring potential of this team will match his efforts, but defensively he doesn't bring much and no one else does either (re: they're gonna lose a lot of 124-116 kinda games). I'm also a big Dario Saric fan but I kinda think he's likely to be frustrated by losing and could turn inward (I already do not expect him to be back in Phoenix next year). I like Baynes, he'll bring some toughness and veteran smarts that this team needs; but he won't bring enough production to really make a difference. Cam Johnson and Ty Jerome are either part of their upswing in drafting or a return to the years of busts (I'm not optimistic about either of these guys, unfortunately). Kaminsky needs a second chance but I don't see what he brings to the Suns (or vice versa), this is one of the most puzzling signings of the summer. Diallo, too, is still young enough to turn into something and unlike Kaminsky, I think Phoenix could be a good spot for him to get some low-key minutes. No idea who Lecque, Carter and Harper are.
Over/Under (28.5): I'm going under
I think they'll score a lot of points but they'll give up even more night in/night out. Rubio, Booker, Oubre, Saric and Ayton is a nice starting five but the depth gets dicey after that and the lack of fit between any of these players does not suggest cohesion will be coming. I just don't see how this team wins games at all.
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