The Eric Bledsoe Saga (part 1)

Now the rumor is that the Suns are trying to trade Eric Bledsoe rather than sign him.  Here’s the deal: Bledsoe is a restricted free agent (RFA) meaning he is allowed to go forth and pursue deals from other teams but the Suns retain the right to match any of those deals.  In this dance the player signs an offer sheet with a new team, the old team either matches it and that becomes his new contract with his old team (the Jazz with Gordon Hayward) or the old team lets him go choosing not to pay so much for his services (the Rockets with Chandler Parsons).  But with Lebron and Melo and numerous big names out and available this year, nobody set aside any money to lure Bledsoe away from the Suns.  So Bledsoe got no offers from other teams. 

That’s okay, the Suns want to keep him anyway.  Indeed, who else would they rather have?  So re-signing him ought to be a breeze.  Except that it’s not.  Without an offer from another team, the negotiations btw the Suns and Bledsoe have nowhere to start.  So Bledsoe asked for the maximum (4 yrs/$84m), the Suns offered the minimum (4 years/$48m).  Not even close.  But until someone else comes in and puts an offer out, how do Bledsoe and the Suns ever come close to agreement on value?  Well, you could try to trade him, get a sense of his trade value.  Even if the team doesn’t want to trade him (and I don’t think the Suns do, who else would they rather have?) at least something like a relative value can be deduced.  Once a reasonable price has been set, then the negotiations could begin.

Is Bledsoe worth max money?  Personally, I say yes.  I think Bledsoe is the next big star--MVP-talk, competing for a scoring title, perennial all-star, leading teams into the playoffs with reckless abandon--yeah, dude, BIG STAR!  But I can certainly understand the trepidation teams have in paying him: he hasn't done much so far.  I get it: his stats make him look like the next Eric Gordon rather than the next James Harden.  I think Bledsoe can be the man and I think the team that steps up right here, right now is gonna be the big winner going forward.  

So who are the other teams with stuff to offer?  This would have to be a sign-and-trade deal so let’s assume that Bledsoe is worth something btw $12-$14m per season.  He wants $16m/per but I don’t think he’s gonna get that this summer, so he either lowers expectations or signs his 1yr tender with the Suns.  No point in trading Bledsoe on the last year of his current deal, no point in trading for it (though that might change come the trade deadline).  So to make a trade a team would have to pony up some serious extension money to get him.  I don't think Bledsoe gets traded but there are some possibilities out there. 

The Eric Bledsoe Saga (part 2)

Where does Bledsoe go?  Let's start by pointing out where he does not go.  

Cavs, Bulls, Wizards, Heat, Raptors, Rockets, Mavs, Grizzlies, Thunder, Spurs, Clippers, Blazers, Warriors, Wolves have made their moves of the summer and are pretty much ready for next season by this point.  A move for Bledsoe may well be more trouble than its worth for one year of a free agent. 

Teams with no deal to make (I just don’t see how they get Bledsoe):

Pistons could offer Josh Smith straight up; nah.  Or they could offer Greg Monroe straight up (indeed, they could disregard any extensions and swap the final years of their respective deals; but what’s the point?) but that would leave each of them with the same problem and neither environment suits either player.  So that leaves some tandem of Brandon Jennings or Jonas Jerebko or Caron Butler, none of which are reasonable returns for Bledsoe.  Pistons are out. 

Magic won’t work because they have too many young cheap players, too many pebbles and not enough stones; the shift of the bodies on the roster becomes more detrimental than progressive and the Suns aren’t gonna want 5 unproven guys regardless of their upside.  Magic is out. 

Lakers are just a mess right now.  Bledsoe and Kobe would be horrible together and the Lakers have nobody that the Suns would want (as I’m assuming Julius Randle is off the table); could the Suns deal with 1yr/$9.5m of Nash on a reunion tour?  Nash as a backup to his protégé, Goran Dragic?  I’m guessing the Suns are not into spending money to re-live the past when they’re pretty good right now, even if you throw in 1yr/$3.5m of Carlos Boozer.  The Suns have to do better for Bledsoe than that.  Lakers are a desperate longshot (if Bledsoe and the Suns are a disaster this year perhaps this comes back at the deadline, but I sure hope not). 

 

Nuggets have Ty Lawson and Javale McGee, two guys I think the Suns don’t really need.  And while Danilo Galinari is more of the Suns’ ilk, do you really want to pay some guy $10.5m who hasn’t played in a year and a half?  After that the contracts chunk out into some kind of collection of Wilson Chandler, Timofey Mozgov, Nate Robinson, Aaron Aflalo, JJ Hickson, Randy Foye—I’d rather have Bledsoe than any combination of those dudes.  I’d take Kenneth Faried but I reckon he’s not available—indeed!  Why hasn’t he signed an extension?  Why isn’t that national news?  The Nuggets don’t strike me as a worthwhile partner in a Bledsoe trade.

(I’m gonna say something weird about the Pacers: Paul George with one leg is worth more to me than Bledsoe or just about anybody in the league, he is my star, my anchor, my guy, I’m not trading that guy for anything short of KD or Lebron.  And I think David West (2yrs/$24m) is just as untouchable; he’s older, he’s expensive, his production doesn’t light up the box score but for his price point, his position, his status in the locker room, David West is exactly what you want at the price you’re willing pay; this may sound weird but I think West is as perfectly valued as the tippity toppity best players, I wouldn’t trade him for too many guys in the league.  Not Eric Bledsoe—and I think the world of Eric Bledsoe!)

Pacers pretty much only have Roy Hibbert (2 yrs/$30m) but the Suns would never take back that kind of payroll or add to Bledsoe to get Hibbert.  The Suns wouldn’t have much use for Hill, Scola, Mahinmi or Miles; and while I think Copeland and Stuckey could work in Phoenix, there’s not enough to make the deal work.  Pacers are out. 

Hornets would need to make a blockbuster offer, I think.  If the Hornets are willing to part with Kemba and another (MKG or Cody Zeller) then they could be in on Bledsoe.  Bledsoe and Kemba are stylistically similar; personally I think Bledsoe is better now and stands to be better going forward, if I’m the Hornets I’m willing to talk Kemba for Bledsoe.  But it might cause too much attrition to the Hornet rotation, a problem Phoenix handled perfectly but I’m not sure the Hornets could.  I guess a deal could work out but it might have to be a bigger deal than just Bledsoe, as even a Bledsoe deal would cause big changes in Charlotte perhaps they’d prefer an even bigger change to get back more than Bledsoe.  I doubt the Hornets are in, the figures don’t work out.  

The Eric Bledsoe Saga (part 3)

Where could Bledsoe end up?  I'm not saying any of these deals are great but they are (potentially) possible.  

Pelicans can offer Tyreke Evans (3yrs/$33.6m) and Austin Rivers (1yr/$2.5), that’s not bad.  For the Pelicans Bledsoe is a forward-looking replacement for Evans and it would solve their ‘what do we do with Austin Rivers?’ problem.  (Though it doesn’t solve their ‘what do we do with Eric Gordon?’ problem)  For the Suns, Evans is not a bad replacement for Bledsoe, not as good, not as much upside but not as expensive, could play right away in their offense, and is a reasonable deal for the next 2 yrs; Rivers could thrive in Phoenix, giving them ballhandling/shooting options off the bench and he’s still cheap.  I’d rather have Bledsoe but this deal seems do-able to me, though sooner rather than later. 

Jazz could offer Derrick Favors (4yrs/$44m) straight up but I’d rather have Bledsoe—and the Jazz are probably the one team in the league that would rather have Favors.  They could offer Kanter (1yr/$5.6), Burks (1yr/$3m), a bigass trade exception, maybe a 1^st rounder too.  I’d rather have Bledsoe (and while I think Bledsoe fits well with the Sixer youth, I’m not sure it’s a perfect match with the Jazz youth) but Kanter and Burks are interesting young talents, a trade exception is always nice if you’re looking to swing a veteran deal at the deadline, and another 1^st rounder from a lottery team is tough to pass up, all while taking back less salary.  I’d rather have Bledsoe but that deal is do-able. 

Kings could offer Carl Landry (3yrs/$19m), Derrick Williams (1yr/$6m) and a 1^st rounder (and the Suns would be taking back less salary).  Landry is a durable, reliable backup C with a decent contract going forward.  Williams is a hometown kid at the end of his deal, if he’s good the Suns have his Bird Rights, if not then at least they gave the hometown kid one last shot.  Neither of these guys is as good as Bledsoe and while they’re each intriguing, I think an extra 1^st rounder (especially from a perennial lottery team) is a necessary sweetener.  But, seriously?  If all they get for Bledsoe is Carl Landry, that’s not good enough.  I doubt this happens but the Kings have shown interest in Bledsoe before and they have a knack for pulling off dumb deals, maybe they can make it happen. 

Hawks could offer Al Horford (2yrs/$24m) straight up for Bledsoe but that would just be swapping stars and for the Hawks, it wouldn’t make them any better in the East.  I’d rather play Bledsoe with Horford rather than instead of him.  Of the other players, Millsap (1yr/$9.5m) plus Demarre Carroll (1yr/$3.5m) kinda works contract-wise; Millsap would be a nice addition to the Suns, Carroll nice depth for the bench.   But the Suns need guys under contract, they need some longterm value for Bledsoe so I don't think two expirings is attractive enough.   It would leave the Hawks with a formidable tandem of Teague, Bledsoe, Korver, Horford (woof!).  Not ideal but not bad, if the Hawks added a 1^st rounder then this is a deal that could still be around at the trade deadline. 

Celtics could offer Jeff Green, Kelly Olynyk, Phil Pressey and a 1^st rounder for Bledsoe.  I’d rather have Bledsoe than one expensive year of Green, another plucky garbage man in Olynyk, the unguaranteed (I presume) Pressey and a non-lottery pick next year.  Or Celtics could offer Rondo straight up.  Personally, I think 4 yrs of Bledsoe is worth waaaay more than 1yr of Rondo but I suspect Celtics fans would balk at that.  I don’t think Rondo is a good fit for the Suns (or anyone, really, which is the Celtics’ cross to bear).   I think the Suns should strike down that talk quickly, I’d much rather have Bledsoe.  I don’t think Rondo for Bledsoe is unimaginable as some NBA fans but I don’t think it’s likely either. 

Bucks could offer a coupla different permutations of Mayo (2yr/$16m), Ilyasova (3yrs/$16.2m), Pachulia (2yrs/$10.4m) and Knight (1yr/$3.5m) but I don’t see any interest in Mayo nor in the length of Ilyasova’s deal; Pachulia and Knight are okay contracts and I think they’d fit the Suns but the topline salaries are unappealing.  (And I didn’t even mention Larry Sanders (4yrs/$44m), if they won’t pay Bledsoe, there’s no way they’re paying Sanders!).  Bucks don’t seem likely unless they come up with a load of sweeteners. 

Nets can pretty much only offer Kevin Garnett (1yr/$12m) but personally I’d rather eat my hat than watch KG pretend like he can still play basketball.  If you’re looking to a dump a bad contract for 1yr of zero, then KG is your man; but if you’re looking to bring back an actual NBA player, KG has not been that guy for a coupla years now.  He’ll be retiring to Arizona soon enough, I’m sure, but hopefully not as a Sun.  Otherwise, the Nets have vastly overpriced guys and, like the Magic, a ton of pebbles that don’t add up to anything worthwhile.  Plus, they’ve given away all their 1^st rounders so they got no sweeteners.  Nets are out. 

Knicks can pretty much only offer Bargnani (1yr/$11.5) plus Shumpert (1yr/$2.6), plus a 1^st rounder.  If I’m the Knicks I’d gladly make that deal, but for the Suns not so good a deal.  I think Bargnani and Shumpert could be good for the Suns, both could easily fit into that Suns rotation and contribute; but there’s no way they’re re-signing Bargnani unless he has a Renaissance of Raphael-like proportions, and Shumpert is just another guy in that line-up, not exactly a priority for next summer.  Bledsoe is going to be good (we think) for 3-5 years, so when you’re looking to match value for him, you need some long-term expectation in return.  Two expiring contracts and a non-lottery pick are not so enticing here, I’d much rather have Bledsoe.  

The Eric Bledsoe Saga (part 4)

Where should Bledsoe go? 

Personally my hobby horse is the Sixers: they got plenty of money, plenty of room in the offense for him, a collection of talented rookies to mold to his game, a city that loves its six-gun heroes. They don't even have to trade for him, they've got money to send him an offer sheet right now. He’s perfect for the Sixers and vice versa.  And it could totally happen making it all the more tantalizing.  But I don’t reckon it will happen.  Bummer. 

My take on the Sixers: The hope and dream, I suppose, of Philly fan is that this rebuilding thing will run its course, clouds will part, sun will shine, and we’ll all just wake up one day and the Sixers will have the most devastating roster since Jordan’s Bulls and Philly will win championships for years to come.  But I’m not sure that’s actually the plan.  The Sixer management may be successfully stockpiling talent now but don’t surprised if that’s the management team’s only notable skill!  Perhaps they have a great eye for valuing future talent but not for valuing current talent!  The stockpiled talent then gets traded forward for new prospects and a cycle of permanent rebuilding sets in.  Think of the Donald Sterling Clippers (cool that that’s past tense now!): for years they shuffled lottery pick after lottery pick in and out of there until one day Chris Paul fell into their lap and suddenly the Clippers are better than ever.  And I mean ever.  The Clippers have really only been good in the last two years of the Paul and Blake pairing, the only time in the entire history of the organization where they were considered a championship contender.  That took 30 years!  30 years of sucking, getting a draft pick, sucking a little bit less for a while, then shipping the good talent out for more sucking.  That could be the Philly model, folks.  Very possible that the crop of MBA-types running the business ends of teams these days will prefer profitable mediocrity to grinding success.  We’ll see.  All a matter of how Nerlens and Embiid turn out, could be Philly get good on the court and starts to take on high priced free agents instead of sitting on the capital (a la Microsoft).  Could be this team will love success on the court when it comes…but I don’t think I’d put money on it. 

I fear the Sixer leadership is akin to the cyborg from Alien: the cyborg worked with the humans but was secretly rooting for the alien to win because the corporation they all worked for valued the new-fangled alien more than the same old humans.  The Sixer cyborgs—I mean GM and President—may see the upside of losing clearer from their spreadsheets than the fans do from the loge or their couches.  The cyborg says all the right things in the press conference about success but the definition of ‘success’ may be more elusive than you realize.  

And that’s why they won’t get Bledsoe even though he fits them a T and vice versa.  

The Eric Bledsoe Saga (part 5)

So where does Bledsoe end up?  I say Phoenix.  

I think Bledsoe plays out the final year for Phoenix, has a great season and gets max money somewhere else in 2015.  Maybe if they go deep in the playoffs or the fans come to adore Bledsoe or some bonding experience takes place, maybe Bledsoe re-signs with the Suns for max money.  But anything short of that will push him elsewhere—even for less money.  Perhaps there’s a trade deadline deal in the works, rarely happens in the NBA but you never know, there could be some good ones this year.   

The Suns don’t want to lose him because he is a good player with excellent potential.  In short, he’s better than anything they could back for him.  His trade value is so high as to be incalculable and/or unrealistic.  If Bledsoe does go out, they have to get something back in return.  Not a draft pick, not some expiring contracts, not a pile of cheap young talent.  The Suns need to get back one or two players with favorable contracts that are going to play, either a stud scorer or a coupla guys that fit their rotation.  That isn’t easy to find.  Which is why he won't get traded now. 

The Suns offered 4yrs/$48m.  I’m guessing they’d be willing to throw in a player option 5^th year for $60m (pretty much the same deal, really) but Bledsoe clearly wants more than $12m/per.  Does 4yrs/$60m get them close?  That seems the agreeable number to me.  I think if the Sixers were to offer 4 yrs/$60m to Bledsoe, the Suns would match.  

I can understand everyone’s hesitation to give Bledsoe the big money, so far he’s only shown flashes of brilliance but nothing to suggest he’s an obvious big star.  Personally I think Bledsoe is gonna be the next big star of the NBA--yup, I said it "BIG STAR"--and I think he’s worth the big money. 

If he’s a free agent next summer, where does Bledsoe go?  I think he’d look nice alongside Melo in Madison Square.  Or btw MCW and Nerlens in Philly, if the Sixer brass feels ready to spend money.  Or in Atlanta after Millsap walks.  But I doubt he stays in Phoenix, despite being a perfect fit for each other, I suspect this summer has soured them on each other.  

USA Men's Roster update

Still need to cut 4 more players.  So who's out?

Derek Rose, Steph Curry, James Harden, Kenneth Faried, Anthony Davis seem locked in as the starting five.  Kyrie Irving and Klay Thompson are first off the bench.  Those seven strike me as guaranteed to play the big minutes going forward.

Rose (1) is set up to be the star of the team, the focal point, the leader, the alpha dog, etc.  I think George would've led in minutes played and Durant probably would've led in scoring (or at least FGA's) but even still Rose would've been the captain of the ship.  He looks fantastic!  Better than he's looked in a long, long time and that's great to see because its not set in stone that he'll once again be the badass he once was: the last time we saw Rose truly ballin' out in the NBA so was Danny Granger, the guy that got shuffled out of 3 cities in six months last year.  As a fan of Team USA I'm happy to see Rose looking his old self while wearing my flag on his chest.

Steph Curry (2) is the anointed filler-upper now that Durant is gone.  Curry will stretch the defense, make plays for his teammates and only needs to get hot once or twice a game to be an MVP.  He'll settle things down, right the ship when need be, rev up the engines when given the chance, whatever the game dictates Curry will provide.  

Anthony Davis (3) is ready to blossom, get ready America you're gonna get close-up view of a caterpillar becoming a butterfly.  He's gonna have many killer highlights, he'll be the defensive stopper, and he'll score with an efficiency that's gonna blow you away.  And because he plays for the lame-ass Pelicans in the hard-ass West, a World Cup is his ticket to glory.  He's good at everything on the court and he's getting ready to really shine out.  This is his first big chance since NCAA 2012 to show everybody just how freakin' good he is.

Kenneth Faried (4) is the necessary guy.  He is perhaps the best rebounder in the world, a solid defender and reliable with the ball.  He's the next generation PJ Brown: all the toughness and dirty work with more scoring and less frowning.  And most importantly for this team, he'll play his ass off without demanding the ball.  Indeed, my only complaint with him in the Brazil game was too many bad shots, he's got to pass out of the double team!  My man, when you're playing with Curry and Harden and Davis and Gay and Thompson, you need to be passing always.  Dunks, layups, free throws, all yours; anything else, look for Rose.

Okay I'll say it: James Harden (5) is the new Dwyane Wade.  His game is basically dribbling into people and going to the foul line.  Boring.  And he's gotta be a prima donna to make sure he gets the calls.  Boring.  I know Harden is a badass and I should be grateful he's on my squad.  But his game bores me.  That said, I expect he'll lead in minutes played (and ball hogging) now that George and Durant are out.

Kyrie (6) looked great against Brazil.  Pesky defender, so quick with the ball, good finisher, good shooter, looks to make plays, great basketball IQ.  He's the perfect 6th man for this team.

Klay Thompson (7) is going to be a regular player on this team, could start if the int'l refs don't dig Harden's brand of jive, but even off the bench he'll play a lot of minutes.  He's got chemistry with Curry, he's a top notch wing defender, good shooter that can get hot (especially when he's the 4th scoring option) and he's in the hungry stage of his career where he sees the Cup as an opportunity rather than a burden.

Those seven strike me as untouchable, they are the heart of the roster.  Of the next five, I'm not at all sure.

I suspect Rudy Gay (8) is in.  The fact that he was invited in during a time of winnowing down the team indicates to me that they already had a plan for Gay.  With George and Durant out, Gay gives them wing scoring, veteran presence and good size for his position; he ain't no Durant and he ain't no George but Gay should still be better than whoever Angola will be trotting out.  So I reckon he fits on this team.

I suspect Chandler Parsons (9) is in.  When you're looking to round out your bench, you want guys that will give maximum effort in minimum appearances.  Parsons is probably the best candidate for that.  Parsons is a good shooter, good ball handler, plus defender and he's got enough ego to sustain himself when he's playing 4 minutes per game.  And he's got the skills and the moxy to step and be a hero if need be.

I think Demarcus Cousins (10) is in.  I get it: he's an annoying baby but, dude, he can play.  I think he'd be great in the int'l context, I think opposing fans will remember him the most, worldwide I think he's the one who stands to become an int'l sensation from this team.  And like Davis, he plays for a crappy team that is never getting anywhere near an NBA championship.  So until he gets into the gritty 'trade me' portion of his career, this is his best chance to win something and be a bigshot.  Personally, I would start Cousins with Davis at the 4 but nobody else seems to think that's a good idea.  And if you're not gonna start him, then you don't need a pain in the ass on the bench, that's annoying, that detracts from the team concept and is a freakin' nightmare for the coach (Jurgan Klinnsman didn't think twice about cutting Landon Donovan and there's no way Coach K would think any more of Cousins).  I get all that.  But he's really good, man.  He does everything on the court well and he wants to win.  I'd start him or at least sub him for Davis or Faried.

I think Kyle Korver (11) is in.  Like Parsons, he is a guy that will gladly come off the bench and contribute as much as he can.  He's a pretty good defender and a terrific 3-baller, which could become important late in the game.  He is one-dimensional but on your bench its great to have complements to your core rather than guys that could come in and shake things up.

For the last spot I would take Damien Lillard, I just think he's real good and in small doses could be deadly and/or a game-changer.  But perhaps he is too much of a star to accept coming in behind Rose, Curry and Irving.  I dunno, I think he's the young and hungry type that relishes any opportunity to shine out.  But perhaps the coaches fear his underwhelmed ego getting in the way of his production.

So I suspect they'll go with Mason Plumlee (12).  The talk was that Plumlee had supplanted Cousins but I reckon he supplanted Drummond as the 3rd big.  Plumlee would only be there to cover foul trouble for Davis (who is a very active defender) and Cousins (who rubs refs the wrong way like nobody's business) and he probably will get some playing time in that role.  He's Coach K's boy and though he is one-dimensional, he is predictable, constant, should make a minimum of mistakes.  He won't be called on to do much but I expect to excel when needed.

That leaves Gordon Hayward, Demar DeRozan, Andre Drummond, along with Lillard, off the team.  DeRozan requires too much service offensively, he's not a trusty one-dimensional guy off the bench, he's a well-rounded scorer who's gonna want the ball and the focus and I don't think there's enough of the to go around on this team (perhaps Olympic 2016 but not now).  Andre Drummond is (by all accounts) not exactly a student of the game so its not hard to imagine that Coach K won't be a big fan of the guy, indeed I don't reckon he sticks with the national team (Nerlens, Jabari will be overtaking him shortly).  I don't know about Gordon Hayward, I think Chandler Parsons is just a more well-liked player at this point, but I can see Hayward being back for the next big USA tourney.  Lillard, too, and Beal and John Wall, as well.  Those guys are worth keeping around even if they're not the blueprint right now.

Victory is not in the bag.  USA has a lot of talent but traditionally USA doesn't take this competition seriously, preferring the high profile Olympics (it is an opportunity to appear in the homes of Americans that prefer the Olympics to actual sports), while the rest of the world thinks little of the Olympics and really gears up for the Cup (nee World Championships).  Personally, I'm with the rest of the world on this one: the Olympics suck (there I said it).  The World Cup is the place to truly find the best of the best, leave the Olympics to the kids (seriously: put an age limit on the team sports).  USA should dominate the basketball World Cup for years to come but to do that, we have to take it seriously.  Colangelo and Coach K have done a marvelous job instilling an on-going nature of Team USA, I wish hockey and baseball would follow suit and each build up their own proper World Cups and instill that same culture to it.

I think USA beats Spain in the Final.  But Spain is gonna be stacked and USA better bring it if they think they're gonna win it.

FIBA U-17 World Cup

USA dominated the U-17 FIBA World Cup, as expected.  They breezed through the group with only Greece giving them pause.  I didn't see the Greece game (USA only won by 10, though Greece went on to a 12th place finish, the Americans suffered from butterflies early on, I presume) but I watched Angola (good athletes but virtually no basketball skills) and the Philippines (good basketball skills but no size at all, the Americans towered over them), both of whom were dispatched with ease.  The size and length of the USA squad gave them dominance on the boards.

Of the single elimination games I only saw the final, where USA beat Australia 99-92.  The Aussies had their opportunities (continually missed crucial FT's in the 4th quarter), attacking the basket with abandon and generally showcasing good skills.  Vasiljevic, Humphries (both of whom made the all-tournament team), Wilson, Noi and Frohling will look good in NCAA uniforms in the next coupla years.  The Americans dominated the boards, scored well enough and were efficient enough to sneak past the Aussies who made a game of it in the 4th by nailing many 3's.  The Americans didn't play with a cutthroat mentality which allowed the plucky Aussies to keep coming back.

Ivan Rabb (currently #1 on ESPN's ranking of high school prospects) was probably the most promising all-around talent (great low post moves, great footwork) but played sparingly due to an ankle injury.  Malik Newman was the MVP of the tourney largely due to his mid-range shooting (killed it in the 1st half of the Championship game) and led USA in minutes played.  Diamond Stone (also on the all-tourney team) was money inside, great on the boards, good touch with the ball, will be in the NBA soon enough.  Harry Giles had the makings of a superior SF.  Henry Ellenson moved well for his size, not the best shooter but good basketball IQ, good footwork.  Caleb Swanigan disappeared from time to time but asserted himself inside on the defensive end.  VJ King, like Giles, looks like a solid SF.  Jayson Tatum, Josh Jackson, Terrance Ferguson all had moments in supporting roles.  Tyus Battle acquitted himself well as the backup PG.  Devearl Ramsey didn't catch my eye.  Curious to see how many of these guys turn into lottery picks (Rabb and Stone are easy calls, they're gonna be top 5 in the 2017 draft) and which ones become great college players (my money's on Tyus Battle to be the most interesting NCAA player).  

USA is still undefeated in U-17 play and that's the way it should be.  No other nation on earth takes youth basketball as seriously as we do.  That said, I was a little surprised to not see Brazil, Germany, Turkey or Russia in this tournament, I would assume them to be top 16 year in, year out.

The final rankings:
1) USA
2) Australia
3) Serbia
4) Spain (blew a big lead to Australia in the semifinals and never recovered, it seems)
5) Puerto Rico
6) Canada
7) China
8) France
9) Italy
10) Argentina
11) Angola (good finish for them, great athletes but their b-ball skills were minimal)
12) Greece
13) Egypt
14) Japan
15) Philippines (good ballers but so undersized)
16) UAE (the host country)

Thoughts on a Rumor, Part 2

The new scuttlebutt is not unlike the rumor I posted earlier with a coupla wrinkles.

Cavs get K Love
Sixers get Anthony Bennett
Wolves get Wiggins, Thaddeus Young, Sixers 2015 1st round pick

A little bit less to go around but the Cavs still get the guy they want, the Wolves get a decent haul for the star they're going to lose anyway and the Sixers get younger and cheaper (which at the moment is all they want out of life).

The Sixers could absorb Kevin Martin or JJ Barea but I doubt they'd be willing to throw in the draft pick (maybe a swap of 2015 1st rounders, giving the Wolves the right to the better pick).  Just think: if the Sixers could talk the Wolves into swapping the expiring contracts of Jason Richardson and JJ Barea, then the Sixers' 3 highest paid guys (Bennett, Embiid, Noel) would have 0 career NBA starts and combined earn less than Kevin Love.  

Seems like the Cavs would have to throw in a little more salary but I could be wrong about that. The upshot is Dion Waiters appears to be off the table, as apparently Lebron likes his game (even if Kyrie doesn't....hmmmm.....).

The Wolves probably thought they were going to get more for Love or at least get rid of other contracts they'd rather not have.  But a solid PF, the top prospect in the game and a great pick in
next year's draft isn't bad.  Would you rather have David Lee, Klay Thompson and Harrison Barnes?  (I don't think I would: Lee is already the poor man's Kevin Love at a Kevin Love price, Thompson is good but Wiggins has that beautiful unknown-ness about him and Barnes is definitely not better than a top 10 pick)

And supposedly this has all been sealed with a handshake and, you know, that's like a binding thing.

NBA Draft Recap: Indiana Pacers

Indiana had only a single 2nd round pick which they flipped to the Knicks for everyone's favorite Xmas present: cash considerations.  After back-to-back Conference Finals appearances, the Pacers know who they are: strong D, good enough offense. With their roster pretty well tied up, the only move left for this off-season was re-signing Lance Stephenson.

Whoops!  Didn't get that done so they picked up Rodney Stuckey (1yr/$1.2m), who I think is a reasonable replacement for Stephenson; Lance is a great perimeter defender but hardly an all-world scorer which is befitting the Pacer style.  Stuckey, to my mind, is actually something of an upgrade in the sense that he is a more reliable scorer than Lance.  They also added CJ Miles for 4yrs/$14.1m, which seems a bit much for a backup PG but he fits their style and is a nice tonic for George Hill.  They also re-signed Lavoy Allen, brought in Damjan Rudez and Shayne Whittington (no idea who that is).  The Pacers didn't have a lot of flexibility, didn't have a lot of moves to make, so this is a pretty predictable outcome for their off-season: you hope Stuckey and Miles can make up for the loss of Stephenson and anything they get out of Rudez is a bonus.  Good enough to win the East?  No, but shouldn't be a dropoff from the last coupla years and with the East in flux, maybe that Pacer D comes in big in the playoffs.

And then...the roof caved in.  Paul George pulls a Theismann in the Team USA scrimmage and appears to be out for the year (though it seems to me a broken leg shouldn't really be more than 6 months, right?  I know it looked worse at first but in the end a broken bone is pretty much the easiest injury a high level athlete could endure, so really out for a year?).  Can the Pacers return to the Eastern Conference finals now?  Nooooo, no, no, no.  Not gonna happen.  Nope.  What are their options?  They could exercise an injured player exception paying roughly half of George's contract for 1 year.  So they could offer 1yr/$7m contract to Shawn Marion, perhaps; Marion seemed on his way to Cleveland but in Indiana he could get more money and play a bigger role on a good squad.  I think that's attractive to Marion.  Ramon Sessions is still available, not an all-world player but he's a reliable veteran that will at least bring some aggressive play to the offensive end.

Or they could blow it up, wait for George to come back strong and see if the lottery bounces their way.  Generally, I think winning is better than losing and Larry Bird doesn't want to rely on some rook out of the NCAA to save his bacon.  But how does the blowing up work itself out?  They've got 3 more years of George Hill at $8m per, Roy Hibbert is making $14.8 this year with a $15.5 player option for 2015-16, and a trio of expiring contracts in Scola ($4.8m), Copeland ($3.1m), Watson ($2.1m).  Who wants these assets?  Who needs Hibbert or Hill or a pile of expiring deals?  I'm not seeing it.

The dream scenario is Hibbert to New Orleans straight up for Indy-born Eric Gordon, as their contracts are identical.  Gordon would give them scoring and the Pacers do love their hometown heroes; but how could the Pelicans take Hibbert after they just brought in Omer Asik on a much cheaper deal with a clear purpose (and who's already bummed about wasting a year behind Dwight Howard)?  If the Hibbert-Gordon deal had come up in June maybe it would've been do-able but not now.  The Celtics might be interested in Hibbert but they would undoubtedly require taking Gerald Wallace back with Rondo, meaning the Pacers would have to offer up West too.  Hibbert and West for 1 year of Rondo, 2 expensive years of Wallace and Olynyk?  Don't seem worth it to me.  West is a soldier, a guy I'd want to keep even if he's too expensive and 1 year of Rondo just isn't good enough for that; and taking back Wallace just throws the re-build all out of whack and there's no rim protection coming back.  The whole identity of the Pacers would evaporate giving Paul George nothing to come back to.  Or how about Hibbert for Jeff Green and Kieth Bogans?  Is Green really an upgrade over the disastrous Evan Turner experiment?  Bogans is a nice tenacious defender but he won't score and he's not a rim protector, the Pacers need to get back more for Hibbert than that.  Unless the Pacers are willing to take back salaries they don't wanna pay or players they just don't need, I don't see how Hibbert or Hill get moved.  And swapping expiring contracts is just re-shuffling the deck chairs.

As tempting as it is to say blow it up, I don't see how they pull that off.  I think the Pacers gotta roll into next year with the squad they got, after begging Marion and Sessions to come aboard.  The Pacers would still be solid on D, frustrating on offense and hopefully George comes back in time to make a playoff run.  The Eastern conference is now even more mediocre and that is bad news for basketball fans.

USA Men's Roster

I was unable to see the USA Blue-White scrimmage live (though I've seen the GIF of Paul George's gruesome, game-ending injury), but shweet! ESPN3 has the replay.  All right!

Blue (Rose, Curry, Faried, Davis, George, Wall, DeRozan, Korver, Hayward, Plumlee)

White (Irving, Durant, Thompson, Cousins, Harden, Drummond, Beal, Lillard, Millsapp, Parsons)

This needs to be pared down to 12 men.  Paul George (sad to see) is out but let's assume the other 9 starting players are in.  That means 3 of the 10 bench players will be included; I would keep Lillard, Korver and Drummond.  

That makes Rose (PG), Curry (SG), Faried (PF), Davis (PF/C), Korver (SG/SF), Irving (PG), Durant (SF/PF), Thompson (SG/SF), Cousins (C), Harden (SF), Drummond (C), Lillard (PG) as your 12-man roster.  Rose looks great, the hype is real, and he clearly wants to be out there, I think he's the featured star on this team.  Curry can handle the ball but I'd play him at the SG with Rose or Irving.  Faried is a great rebounder and runs the floor well, he's the dirty work guy, he'll make plays without demanding the ball.  Davis is the best shotblocker in the world, you can't go out there without Davis.  Irving and Lillard are the playmaking ballhandlers off the bench.  Durant is the best player in the world, he can play on any team he wants to.  Thompson can play perimeter D and knock down 3's with the best of 'em.  Cousins can be a shotblocking rebounder who can handle the ball on the break and since he plays in Sacramento, this is his best chance to win something.  Harden can be the 6th man (a la his OKC days) that scores and handles the ball.  Drummond brings rebounding and interior D off the bench.  Korver is the sharp shooter who can guard the SF.  

As for the guys left off, I loved DeRozan in this game but I think he's a little too selfish offensively to put on a squad like this.  Wall is not enough of a scorer to put ahead of Lillard, Irving or Curry.  I was impressed with Hayward tonight but I think this team needs more size so I think he's the odd man out in the SF spot.  Plumlee gave a great effort but his reward is getting invited back for 2016 Olympics.  Beal is an interesting talent, Team USA wants to keep him involved going forward but for now I don't see him as a consistent enough scorer.  Parsons gives a little bit of everything, wouldn't be surprised to see him make the cut (#13 on my depth chart).  I like Millsapp as much as the next guy but I just don't think he stands out on this team.  

Personally my starting 5 would be Rose, Curry, Durant, Davis, Cousins.  (Tough to lose Paul George, I think he would've started and as THE defensive stopper might've led in minutes played.  Fortunately as ugly as the injury looked a broken leg is the least worrisome injury possible for these guys, but I reckon he'll be out til about Xmas.  Sucks for him and sucks for all us basketball fans) 

I love international sports, I wish there was more of this.  Its tough for Americans to embrace the FIBA World Cup because we already have the best basketball in the world right here, for most fans internationalizing the game doesn't make it any more interesting.  But, as a soccer fan, I love the international context, I love seeing familiar faces in unfamiliar arrays, I love the hype, the nationalism, the funky rules (no live ball timeouts, that'll take some getting used to).  I love it in golf and hockey, I love it baseball and soccer.  (American football is a distinctly American game and I don't have any desire to watch other countries play it but I'd love to see USA put a little more effort into rugby, its a great game and an international game)  Basketball is well-positioned to be every bit as popular as soccer worldwide.  And I think that's a great thing.  Go USA!

Thoughts on a Rumor

Late last night I caught a story on the Net (not sure the source) detailing a potential Love-Wiggins trade that had the Sixers stepping in as a 3rd team.  I thought it was intriguing, check it:

Cavs get K Love, Dario Saric
Sixers get Wiggins
Wolves get Anthony Bennet, Dion Waiters, Thad Young, Sixers unprotected 2015 1st round pick

Or the other way:
Cavs give up Bennet, Waiters, Wiggins
Sixers give up Young, Saric, 2015 1st rounder
Wolves give up K Love

The Cavs get the big stud they want and a bonus European prospect, while giving up a prospect that never played, another prospect that played only a little bit and another prospect that has as much chance of being a headache as a contributor.  Not a bad deal for them.

The Sixers get the intriguing prospect they coveted, while giving up their most expensive contract and two prospects that never played for them.  They'd be trading two prospects for one better prospect--hell, getting rid of Young is just a bonus to this team.  And since it actually makes them cheaper, they'd still have plenty of money to make a run at some veterans (Eric Bledsoe, for the love of god, go get Eric Bledsoe!).  Not a bad deal for them.

The Wolves give up their superstar that they're clearly going to lose next summer anyway for an interesting PF (Young), a SG that can play right now (Waiters), a great draft pick next year (seeing as the Sixers lose as well as anyone in the league, that could be a top 5 pick) and--this is the key--a chance to make something out of Anthony Bennet.  In the long run Bennet might turn out to be the biggest surprise of this deal, if only because right now no one is convinced he'll be any good at all; last year he was injured early for the Cavs and by the time he got in the rotation the team had already made wholesale changes (out with Bynum, coach Brown and the GM, in with Deng, Hawes) and the locker room was falling apart.  Not exactly ideal conditions for a guy with high expectations.  Maybe he's good.  Maybe he's really good.  Maybe he goes to the West and plays better than you think.

Sure, the Wolves would rather have Klay Thompson but they've got no need for David Lee or Harrison Barnes (certainly no more intriguing a prospect than Bennet at this point), so wouldn't they rather have Young and Waiters (which would make them cheaper and set them up for next year)?  Would the Wolves rather have Wiggins (a project that might not pan out) or Young (a modest talent but you know what you got) with a bonus draft pick?  Or, to put it another way, what could the Cavs get for Wiggins that the Wolves might prefer? Would the Warriors give up Klay Thompson for Wiggins?  And would the Wolves prefer Klay Thompson to Young and a draft pick?

I like this deal, it makes sense to me for all parties involved.  And while it probably doesn't need to be done today, I do think that the longer it lingers the less possible it gets.  Why?  Because Bennet and Wiggins in Cavs uniforms will either be awful or too good to trade, either way the deal gets scuttled.  Or some other suitor emerges with a deal that makes sense (maybe in 6 months the Lakers could figure out how to make Love to LA happen, maybe the Hawks or Pelicans or some team no one's thought of roll out something eye-popping).  Can the Wolves do better for Love?  Can the Cavs do better for Wiggins?

But what's most noteworthy is that now I cannot find the story, nor did any of my usual sites mention it making me think I made up the whole thing.  I don't think I did, I'm not good enough to come up with a deal this good.