Copa America update

Saturday June 30, 07
Venezuela 2 - 0 Peru
Bolivia 0 - 1 Uruguay

That group is still up in the air after the 2nd game day.

Sunday July 1, 07
Mexico 00 : 20 Ecuador
Brazil 22 : 05 Chile

Mexico is well positioned to take the lead in this group.

U-20 World Cup update

Saturday June 30, 07
Poland U20 1 - 0 Brazil U20
Korea Rep. U20 1 - 1 USA U20
Argentina U20 0 - 0 Czechia U20
Korea DPR U20 0 - 0 Panama U20

Saw almost all of USA's 1-1 draw with South Korea. I'll pass on lamenting on the commentator's clear favoring of South Korea because they are a pretty lovable bunch of underdogs and their fans are pretty cool. But the ref favoring the Koreans over the Americans was by the end egregious (dude, Altidore was taken down in the box right at the end, an easy call). That said, the Koreans controlled the pace, pushed the ball forward well and the Americans never seemed to have defenders in place--if there were so many guys forward then why couldn't we maintain possession? USA's junior team is traditionally a sluggish bunch (ever watched NCAA soccer? Not a pretty thing) Hopefully, USA figures out how to use its size and athleticism before this Cup is over.

I also caught Argentina's 0-0 draw with the Czech Republic. Predictably, Argentina had the dominant offense, Czech had the dominant defense. In soccer I say take the O over the D but the Argentines didn't make the necessary adjustments in the second half. The Czechs sagged on D, made virtually no effort to score and Argentina just didn't make the most of their scoring chances when they were clearly the more skillful and exciting squad. Argentina is probably still the favorites as they should blast through Panama and North Korea.

Sunday July 1, 07
Canada U20 01 : 45 Chile U20
Spain U20 02 : 00 Uruguay U20
Nigeria U20 02 : 00 Costa Rica U20
Japan U20 23 : 15 Scotland U20
Jordan U20 23 : 15 Zambia U20

Copa America update

Thursday June 28, 2007
Paraguay 5 - 0 Colombia
Argentina 4 - 1 United States
I would've liked to catch that USA match--well, maybe not. It looks like a serious beatdown until you get to the whooping Paraguay laid on Colombia! This group is looking weird.

Saturday June 30, 2007
Venezuela 00 : 20 Peru
Bolivia 22 : 05 Uruguay
Peru is looking pretty good to make it through to the next round.

My pre-pre-season NBA picks

East West
1. Bulls Suns
2. Heat Rockets
3. Knicks Blazers
4. Cavs Spurs
5. Wizards Mavs
6. Magic Jazz
7. Bucks Nuggets
8. Nets Lakers

9. Raptors Clippers
10. Pistons Warriors
11. Celtics Hornets
12. Sixers Kings
13. Hawks Grizzlies
14. Bobcats Sonics
15. Pacers T-Wolves

I'm banking on Billups being somewhere other than Detroit, KG being out of Minnesota, Ron Artest out of Sacramento and the Raptors not making any changes.

Random thoughts on the NBA draft

Got to say Portland did the best last night. Greg Oden will be a star by the end of his rookie year if not sooner and they picked up Taurean Green (#52 overall and I think he'll be as good as Mike Conley) and Josh McRoberts (a high school pal of Oden incidentally). I love ditching Zach Randolph (the ugliest good player in the league right now) for Channing Frye (a nice young player). If they can keep Stevie Franchise from hogging the rock could--keep the ball in the hands of Jarrett Jack and Brandon Roy--they could be good right away. And they picked up 2 European guys they might be able to use next year.

These guys are on fire. They've completely overhauled their team in the last 2 drafts and they've moved into the rich-get-richer plan* of storing away European talent for the future. (*) (That plan was used with some luck by Utah in the Stockton-Malone days, picked up rather sloppily by the Warriors (who don't have the stars to rely on until the talent is ready) and mastered by the Spurs who are crushing people with a collection of foreign players everybody missed) So they've rid themselves of past problems, vastly upgraded their current team and started to build for the future just in the last 12 months. Makes me wish I was a Blazer fan!

I thought the Bulls quietly added 3 useful players. Joakim Noah fits well with the Bulls, let him be the offensive complement to Tyrus Thomas and you've got two young bangers that can run and gun for years to come. And they got Aaron Gray (Pitt) and Jameson Curry (Okla St) in the 2nd round; I think both of those guys can play (though they might be practice players for 2 years before they really get on the floor) who will thicken that bench.

Minnesota didn't knock me out. Corey Brewer is a little overrated, I don't think he'll have the impact that Brandon Roy had, for example, and I don't mean to knock Roy, he's a nice player, but he didn't exactly re-invent basketball, did he? I like Chris Richard, the underrated additive on those Florida championship squads, but I wonder about his durability and his heart. He could be lightning in a bottle or he could be out of the league in 3 years.

I kept waiting for Milwaukee to trade Yi Jianlian. I suspect they fancy themselves players in the KG/Kobe sweepstakes but I don't see it. I fear the Bucks won't get what they want out of him: on the one hand the salary cap guarantees a minimum value for him but he's unproven trade bait so who's going to pull the trigger on that?

The Bobcats picked up Jason Richardson, a nice veteran player that can help a young team in a crappy conference, and Jermereo Davidson could be one of the great sleepers of the 2nd round--didn't it seem like the 2nd round was more interesting than the last half of the 1st?

The Pistons nabbed 3 guards: Rodney Stuckey, Aaron Aflalo and Sammy Mejia. I think Chauncey Billups is on his way out of town--look, he can get more money in a lot of other places and he can play for a better team in a lot of other places, he ain't coming back to fading Detroit--but these guys aren't PG's, they're SG's. They would make better replacements for Rip Hamilton, wouldn't they?

The Hawks got two nice new players in Al Horford and Acie Law, both of whom could be fine NBA players. But don't the Hawks 1 or 2 good looking young players every year and still pick in the top 5?

Suns picked up 2 nice players in Alando Tucker and DJ Strawberry. Both of those guys can play both ends of the floor and they should fit in nicely. (Or Tucker might make another add-on in the KG sweepstakes)

Ray Allen is probably the most underappreciated player in the league, he is a great player tucked away in basketball Siberia, so you probably haven't noticed. Putting him next to Paul Pierce and Al Jefferson should be good enough for 8th place in the east but not much better than that. I suppose Ray Allen is better than the 5th pick in this year's draft, though we'll see if the Celtics regret passing Yi Jianlian.

Getting rid of Steve Francis and bringing another high energy, low ego rookie might well be enough to bring forth the Knick renaissance. Zach Randolph is filler-upper inside which the Knicks can use but beware, he's horrible to watch and may be inconsistent. (As a Kentucky fan let me get in a shoot out to Randolph Morris, he can score points, he's better than you think, he's the reason Channing Frye was expendable) Hey, the east isn't that great and the Knicks have more good players than anyone has noticed. I think they'll satrt out strong and fade in the playoffs.

Copa America update

Wednesday June 27, 07
Ecuador 2 - 3 Chile
Brazil 0 - 2 Mexico
Who-hoo, check out Mexico stunning the Brazilians. Not that big an upset, really, but I'm sure the Brazilians were taken aback. Chile outduels Ecuador.

Thursday June 28, 07
Paraguay 00 : 35 Colombia
Argentina 02 : 50 United States
All right, USA, time to build on your fine performance in the Gold Cup. (Any chance we'll get to see that on TV?) And we'll see what Colombia has to offer these days.

Copa America update

Tuesday June 26, 07
Uruguay 0 - 3 Peru
Venezuela 2 - 2 Bolivia

Damn, check out the beatdown Peru laid on Uruguay. Home team takes the draw. And in today's matches, Brazil v. Mexico may well be a preview of the final.

Wednesday June 27, 07
Ecuador 00 : 30 Chile
Brazil 02 : 45 Mexico

Gold Cup runnething over

USA looked shaky most of the day against Mexico. USA's defense was on its heels most of the day as the pesky Mexican offense dictated the flow for much of the match. But the Mexican offense has a tendency to dance around, favor too much flair and piss away opportunities, much to the USA's good fortune. But the Americans came back strong in the 2nd half and converted their opportunities and the Mexicans did not. USA wins its 2nd straight Gold Cup.

I haven't been a big Tim Howard thus far but I thought he came up big yesterday, making a coupla game-saving stops. Jonathon Bornstein seemed lost against Canada in the semi-final but played much better against a veteran Mexican side. Carlos Bocanegra played well, always seemed to be where he needed to be. Oguchi Onyewu was exposed on his lack of lateral quickness, but he's still the bull anchoring the middle of that D. The Jonathon Spector/Frank Simek platoon was notable only for getting continually torched on the outside.

Demarcus Beasley is still the most frustrating USA player in many years: at times he provides the veteran smarts that you need from a good midfielder and other times he plays too conservatively and fails to convert chances. Pablo Mastroenni is a player I'm skeptical of; he seems to be most effective at delivering tough, card-earning vicious tackle and while USA needs a little of that, I'm not sure I see the skills to make the team better. Benny Feilhaber nailed the goal of his life with about 20 minutes to go and it was a beauty! He had a nice, not great, tourney--but how can you front on the guy that hit the game winner? Landon Donovan played great, nailed 3 PK's, always touched the ball deftly (if not effectively) and showed that he is still the class of North American soccer. Ricardo Clark played well off the bench, pushing forward nicely.

USA's glaring problem is goal-scoring. USA just doesn't have that guy up front that you look to get the ball to. Brian Ching has so many good moments that I keep waiting for him to score a frickin' goal once in a while. His foul in the box was a sweet move and he had some nice moves again later on but that shot found the post. I think Ching probably has the most skill but isn't necessarily the best finisher. Taylor Twellman, I think, may be the best pure scorer but he seems undersized and when he's got the ball at his feet away from the goal he's just so uncreative, he looks at times like he doesn't know what to do with the ball. Clint Dempsey, like Mastoenni, provides attitude and he can hammer the ball both of which are nice qualities, but I'm still waiting for the consistency of his skill to become apparent. Which one of these guys will step forward? Frankly, I don't have high hopes for any of them.

The Gold Cup is a nice victory, beating Mexico is always a pleasure and running through our group competition is something we should take full advantage of. Next up is the Copa America 2007, a largely South American tournament where we will likely have our asses handed to us. It's one thing to dominate the Caribbean, quite another to leave our immediate sphere of influence and get anything done. I'd love to see USA make it out the group play in Copa America but considering we're in with Argentina, Paraguay and Colombia, I'm not counting on it. Although we've dominated Mexico for a coupla decades now--has anyone in America noticed that?--the Mexicans are much more adept at playing with South American sides than we are. So don't be surprised to see Mexico make a run in this tourney.

I'll take Argentina over Mexico in the final, Chile over Brazil in the 3rd place match. Okay, we'll see.

Open and Closed

Angel Cabrera takes a Major, nice work. He was fun to watch, man, he was pacing around chain-smoking like he was in a maternity ward. Made the shots that needed to get made all the way down the wire, played a helluva round.

Jim Furyk's 3 straight birds on the back 9 put him in the mix. But I never felt like he would get it done. And he blew up on 17 right on cue. Tiger just didn't finish his birdie putts--ditto, Ames who had plenty of chances to pad his lead and just couldn't knock them down--but otherwise struck the ball well for 2 straight days. Baddeley was a train wreck, too bad, waiting for that kid to take off and Sunday at Oakmont can't be the easiest place to do it.

And Oakmont is the worse possible course I could imagine. The fairways are narrow and jut off in weird angles, the rough is thicker than a Colombian drug cartel, there's freakin' sand all over the place, and everything's on a hill. The greens play fast but then bite right at the cup and of course there on a hill too. It sucks from stem to stern: the drives leave you absolutely no safe haven, the short game is like shooting on a pool table and the putts run fast and curvy except where you want them to. +5 to win the US Open seems ungainly but perhaps it made for the best possible golf.

Gold Cup final four

Thursday, June 21
Canada - USA
Mexico - Guadeloupe

A little surprised to see Canada blast Guatemala (3-0), but they seem to be built for the one-and-done tourneys. Could Canada be on the rise? USA has been looking good so far, I thought they were superior to Panama (2-1) on both ends of the field, its just a matter of playing a complete game and finishing when the opportunity arises. I'll take USA to finish off Canada.

Mexico was sluggish against Costa Rica (1-0 in OT) but that was the closest match-up of the quarters. Guadaloupe is still a mystery to me, although they've introduced themselves to Honduras (2-1). I've got to go with Mexico although these Guadaloupe dudes might come up monstrous.

Final thoughts on the NBA

There simply wasn't enough love or hate in this year's finals. We want to love Lebron but his team just isn't good enough to get emotionally involved with. We want to hate the Spurs because they play a robotic style of dominating basketball but frankly they're a respectable bunch of joes. In fact the Spurs are the kind of guys that you'd probably like in real life--precisely the problem! We look to the TV to be bigger and better than real life which is why we're inherently disappointed with Duncan and company: they're not big stars, they're just good players. Lebron is a big star and a good player but he doesn't have the supporting cast yet.

We didn't watch the finals this year out of respect for Lebron. We knew his team wasn't good enough to compete and we didn't want to see him lose.

Duncan v Bird & Magic

Some went nutty the other day when Robert Horry suggested these San Antonio Spurs could hang with Bird's Celtics and Magic's Lakers. While I would suggest that Magic and Bird had a higher level of competition in their day than Duncan's Spurs have right now--the Eastern Conference is just so weak right now its dragging down the whole league--I do think that head-to-head the Spurs would hang with the classic squads. Yo, Ginobli, Parker and Duncan is a for-real trio, they're not just the best that were left, they are the best. And they've got the good coaching that gets the most of the role players like Bowen, Oberto and Elson. And they've got the veterans off the bench like Horry, Finley and Barry that can smell a championship and drive their teammates right to it.

The Celtics had a great starting five (Parish, McHale, Bird, Ainge, DJ) but not much off the bench (Greg Kite? Rick Carlysle? Bill 'Ol' One Leg' Walton?), and I think Parker and Ginobli driving from all over the floor would put some serious pressure on the Celtics up the middle. I'd take the Spurs in 7. And as for the Lakers, well, we'd finally see Tony Parker get out-classed, but with Bowen clamping down on Worthy, Ginobli taking it to Byron Scott and Duncan dominating Kareem, I think we'd see 7 games--and I'd probably take the home team. Isn't that impressive enough?

Every era is different and you have to look at each time period uniquely. And the Spurs are raging through their period, let's call it 'the high school era'. The movement of high school kids coming straight out has sent a ripple through the league that is still in play. Not even completely in terms of skills, it's more about getting to know the players. We learned more about Oden and Durant in 1 year of college ball than we've seen of Shaun Livingston or Sebastian Telfair or Deshawn Stevenson after years of riding pro benches. The skills are important but the visibility of the players is important too. And the Spurs are the smartest, strongest team in the 'high school era'. And note how adeptly the Spurs have used the high school era to poach talent from overseas. Everyone's trying to get the next Lebron while the Spurs content themselves with the next Oberto.

The Spurs are all alone right now. We got gypped out the Spurs-Suns series that we should've had. The Spurs thugged their way through that series (and somehow or other were allowed to get away with it!), and that's unfortunate because they didn't have to. We should've had 7 solid games out of that and instead got a pile of controversy.

The Suns are the only real competition in the west. The Mavericks have decided to take a powder, they'll be back but how strong can they be? The Rockets are a puzzle but still not as good as the Spurs. Ditto the Jazz. The Nuggets are a nice team but not a great one. The Lakers are floundering. The Warriors are nice but hard to make lightning strike year after year.The Clippers are simply not gonna get it done. The Blazers (Oden) and Sonics (Durant) are both a few years away. The Hornets are putting the pieces together but they won't be competitive any time soon. The Grizzlies charged so hard in the wrong direction last year its hard to imagine them winning at all for a few years. The T-Wolves are going in the wrong direction.

So as of right now I'm taking Spurs-Cavs again next year with the Cavs maybe good enough to take 2 games.

Gold Cup Quarterfinals

Sat., Jun. 16
Canada vs. Guatemala
USA vs. Panama

Guatemala is a scrappy team that sags the D and really frustrates people. Canada is a country strangely bereft of talent though they are at their best in competitions like this. I'll take Guatemala in this one.

USA has looked dominating in their first 3 games (1-0 over Guatemala, 2-0 over Trinidad, 4-0 over El Salvador) and are the clear favorite to repeat as Gold Cup champs. I watched some of Panama's loss to Mexico last night and I was not impressed with their skills or athleticism. Then again, I wasn't impressed Panama before the last Gold Cup and they made it to the finals! That's right, this is a re-match of the last final. They squeaked by Panama in the last Cup but I think USA will thrash them this time around.

Sun., Jun. 17
Honduras vs. Guadeloupe
Mexico vs. Costa Rica

I'm not even sure what Guadeloupe is or where it lives--and I'm geography buff! Honduras has posted 9 goals in their 3 games so far, they're usually a tenacious squad, looks like they came to play. I'm taking Honduras.

Mexico has disappointed a little bit so far, they're a better squad than they've showed as yet. And Costa Rica is no slouch. This should be the best match of the Quarters. I have to go with Mexico.

Wait a minute

How is it that Kevin Harvick is in 7th place overall but has made a full million bucks more than 1st place Jeff Gordon? Doesn't it stand to reason that earnings would be pretty close to points standings?

Nextal Leader Board

French Open re-cap

To start it off: Justine Henin (Mr. Hardenne is apparently available if any of you ladies are interested) appeared in her 5th final of the last 6 majors. In a sport dominated by a handful of personalities, Henin has quietly racked up 7 majors. Superior play beats superior marketing every time.

In the men's: first set, Federer up 3-2, on serve. Nadal falls down luv-40, rallies back and finally takes the point after 8 deuces. Federer comes back drained, breaks just like a little girl, Nadal breezes through his serve and breaks Federer once more to take the set. The one flaw of Federer's game is occasionally he drifts off to the Bahamas in his mind and loses himself for a little while. Normally he comes back anyway because he's a heartless tennis machine and well, he's just better than you. But coming back on Nadal on clay is like thinking you're gonna catch Reggie Bush once he's past you: it may be possible but it ain't too likely. Federer wasn't out of it but failing to capitalize on opportunities in his return game must've stung.

Federer came back strong in the 2nd and comfortably takes it. It looks like we got a match.

Incidentally, I was only rooting for a good match. In tennis that clearly requires pulling for the guy who's behind at any given moment. In the 1st I hoped only for compelling tennis and got it. In the 2nd I was pulling for Federer and was rewarded. In the 3rd I went back for Nadal to regain the momentum and again was pleased (or at least pleasantly un-surprised).

Which brings us to the 4th. I was rooting for Federer to come out and lay it all out there. I feel like he did but just wasn't getting the luck. He's gambling and trying to be pro-active but just couldn't get his way. Credit Nadal for being the best clay court-er in the world. Federer may well be 2nd best, I have no doubt they'll be playing for many more Slams. Nadal would probably be winning more if he didn't have Federer keeping everybody out.

Federer is dominating more than Sampras or Borg or Laver--dominating more than Tiger! 8 straight slam finals (6 wins with 2 losses to Nadal in Paris), that's just unheard of. He's in Steffi Graf/Gretzky/MJ/Coach K territory with John Wooden/Bill Russell/Vince Lombardi territory not far off. And Nadal is looking like Alysheba galloping just behind Affirmed. But Nadal is feisty, he'll win more than Duke or the Braves or Shaq ever did.

They'll meet again in Wimbledon, methinks, and when they're back in Federer's turf, I suspect the result will be evenly reversed. Good tennis is a good thing.

Thoughts on the Eastern Conference

I thought Orlando was a pretty good fit for Billy Donovan: close to home, killer money and, unlike all the college coaches that the punditry has been comparing him to, the Magic has actually got some good players and a ton of money to play with. Why the change of heart? I have no idea but of course that doesn't preclude me from speculatin' on a hypothesis.

I'm guessing that when Donovan took the Magic gig he was assured that the Magic would go hard after the coveted free agent on the market, Chauncey Billups. But after watching Lebron single-handedly pull the Cavs past Chauncey's Pistons, I suspect Chauncey is probably more interested in trying to beat the Bulls with Lebron than he is in going to Orlando and trying to beat Lebron with Jameer Nelson and Grant Hill. Likewise, if I was Chauncey Billups I think I'd see Lebron as the guy to be next to rather than Rip (needs too much service), Rasheed (might be done) and Tayshaun (a nice piece of the puzzle but not the guy you build around). Just like that the power of the east goes from Detroit to Cleveland. I don't see Wade beating Lebron next year, so as of right now I'd say the Cavs are my pre-pre-season pick for next year's finals.

The Bulls will be the next best team behind Cleveland. The Raptors should improve a little more but its hard to see them busting past the middle of the conference. The Wizards are primed to make a move or two that could lift them. The Heat will be there at the end but I think they come up short. If Billups leaves the Pistons, then they instantly fall to 6th or 7th at best in the east. The Sixers have a ton of draft picks so if they choose wisely they could get themselves in the playoffs, they weren't as bad as they looked this past year. Who the hell knows what the Knicks will do? The Bucks have confounded me for the last few years: I think they've got some good looking pieces but they haven't moved forward lately. The Hawks will still be the Hawks. The Celtics will still suck. The Bobcats are on the slow and steady glide path. I suspect the Nets will see some major changes that will drop them out of the playoffs next year. The Pacers are going backwards.

So where are the Magic? I'm guessing their new coach will be some shlub like PJ Carlisimo. And they'll be about 7th or 8th in the east.

Oh yeah, I'll take the Spurs in 5 closely contested, entertaining games.

Coupla observations on Pistons-Cavs Game 5

Man, the vaunted Pistons are only marginally better--if that!--than Lebron all by himself. Isn't that a bit of a surprise? Lebron and 4 random dudes are as good as the Detroit Pistons. I didn't realize.

The Pistons with the Webber/McDyess/Maxiel rotation isn't nearly as good as the Pistons with Ben Wallace. You know the Pistons should've won the east last year but they faltered to the Cavs before triumphing and they lost themselves to the Heat. They went into identity crisis mode instead of simply coming in and playing their game. And that as much as anything led to the defection of Ben Wallace. Now that identity crisis may be ingrained.

Unless Rip Hamilton picks up his game I think the Pistons will get bounced. Last year they dropped 3 straight to the Cavs and still came back to win but this year's Pistons isn't as good as last year's.

Holy crap, Lebron is unstoppable! Has he played himself out? I don't think so, he'll be back tomorrow night ready to kick some ass and hopefully he'll get some help from his teammates.