Celtics 89-73 Cavs (Celtics 2-0)
The Cavs started off hot and it looked like the Celtics would be sweating a little bit. But they cooled off after the 1st quarter, Lebron had another frustratingly sub-par game and the home team cruised through the 2nd and 3rd periods. Ray Allen finally tooled Wally Sczerbiak and the Celtics bench got a lot of playing time tonight. Suddenly the vulnerable Celtics are looking strong again at the right time and now the Cavs are in a must-win situation. (Snooze of a game for non-Celtic fans, truth be told)
Red Wings 4-1 Stars (Red Wings 1-0)
In the first few minutes of the match, I thought Osgood looked jumpy and out of sync in goal. My initial thought was that Dallas would have some chances to score. But Osgood settled in quickly and the Stars just never made much of the few scoring opportunities they had. As the game wore on it was the Stars that looked out of sync, off balance, they couldn't maintain possession and squandered their power play chances. The Red Wings are fantastic passers and stifling on defense. The Wings dominated this game and I suspect they'll dominate this series. Dallas did not look ready to play and Detroit punished them.
Chicago Fire 2-0 DC United
MLS players have gotten much better at controlling the ball, on-the-ball play is really vastly improved in the American game over where it was 10 years ago. The next leap forward needs to be in tactics: they control the ball, now they need to do something with it. With that in mind, DC United just struck me as a bunch of scufflers, they're not a good squad right now. They had no attack, they couldn't sustain possessions and only in the last few minutes of the match did they even pick up any meaningful scoring chances (all of which, obviously, went for naught). How much of that is simple ineptitude and how much is because they were up against the top team in the east? I couldn't say though my gut tells me DC won't be making the playoffs this year. Chicago was a better team but they didn't finish well, other than Blanco's terrific strike in the 2nd half--you'll be seeing that one on Sportscenter, though they strangely favor European highlights over American ones. They had the ball around the goal and generally didn't look scary. Blanco is perhaps the only pure scorer in the MLS right now and he showed it tonight.
Russ Roberts-John Nye
I generally listen to econ lectures or books on tape while watching sports. This is a bit of a hindrance to watching hockey because I don't know the players that well and sometimes I don't understand the foul calls. Otherwise I find I don't miss the commentary much except for the occasional out of the ordinary play (like what the hell happened to Ben Wallace?). When I listen to the announcers I usually find myself noticing only the ubiquitous product placements rather than any worthwhile observations. So throughout tonight's channel flipping I listened to Russ Roberts and John Nye discussing the evolution of European free trade in the 19th century. Here's an interesting factoid for ya: from 1750 to 1914 Great Britain did not have 1 single year of trade surplus. (Trade deficit is one of those generally worthless statistics that political types toss around because obfuscation is better than illumination. Think about it: all those burgers from Wendy's I've consumed over the years and yet Wendy's has never bought anything from me--how will I survive this crippling trade deficit? If what you buy is worth what you paid then it is an equal exchange and there is no deficit) Another point to consider: though Britain was the center of the Industrial Revolution, standard of living barely increased from 1750 to 1850. Not much of a revolution when you note that no one seems to have gotten rewarded for their effort.
Thursday, May 8, 2008
TPC Sawgrass update
Sergio Garcia 66
Paul Goydos 68
Kenny Perry 68
Steve Elkington 69
Niclas Fasth 69
Todd Hamilton 69
Ian Poulter 69
Heath Slocum 69
Angel Cabrera 70
Fred Couples 70
Ben Crane 70
Miguel Angel Jimenez 70
Anthony Kim 70
Troy Matteson 70
John Merrick 70
Phil Mickelson 70
Jose Maria Olazabal 70
Brett Quigley 70
Kevin Stadler 70
Nicholas Thompson 70
D.J. Trahan 70
Boo Weekley 70
Look at Sergio jumping out to the early lead. When the Tiger's away the Spaniard will play. I'm skeptical of Garcia, always have been. But my pick, KJ Choi, is pretty much already out of it at +7. The grubby media types are rooting for either Mickelson or Anthony Kim but I say keep an eye on Ian Poulter or Boo Weekley, they're lurking.
Paul Goydos 68
Kenny Perry 68
Steve Elkington 69
Niclas Fasth 69
Todd Hamilton 69
Ian Poulter 69
Heath Slocum 69
Angel Cabrera 70
Fred Couples 70
Ben Crane 70
Miguel Angel Jimenez 70
Anthony Kim 70
Troy Matteson 70
John Merrick 70
Phil Mickelson 70
Jose Maria Olazabal 70
Brett Quigley 70
Kevin Stadler 70
Nicholas Thompson 70
D.J. Trahan 70
Boo Weekley 70
Look at Sergio jumping out to the early lead. When the Tiger's away the Spaniard will play. I'm skeptical of Garcia, always have been. But my pick, KJ Choi, is pretty much already out of it at +7. The grubby media types are rooting for either Mickelson or Anthony Kim but I say keep an eye on Ian Poulter or Boo Weekley, they're lurking.
Tuesday, May 6, 2008
NHL playoffs update
Conference Semi-Finals predictions
East
Canadiens over Flyers in 6
Rangers over Penguins in 7
West
Red Wings over Avalanche in 6
Stars over Sharks in 7
I'm still struggling with the east, missed both picks in the semis. The way the Rangers sliced through the Devils, who impressed me throughout the regular season, led me to think that they would rise above the youthful Penguins. The Penguins would have none of it and bumrushed the Rangers quickly at home and did well back in New York. Crosby and Malkin are on the road to the Stanley Cup. I took Montreal over Philly just because they had a better record and their peripheral stats seemed better--I don't believe I saw either of these squads all season long. I caught quite a bit of Philly's 1st round match-up against the Caps and wasn't impressed with their attack, which disappears from time to time. I sorta figured that Montreal would be the veteran team that would rise above the inconsistent Flyers. Well they didn't. I gotta take the Pens' relentless attack over Philly's inconsistency. Penguins in 6.
The west, on the other hand, is quite clear to me. The Sharks were the fashionable pick at the beginning of the playoffs to get out of the west, the team that could go to Hockey Town and get it done. But the Stars peaked at the right time--need to keep that peak going for a coupla more weeks--and jumped out to a 3-0 lead. The Sharks are a good squad and they kept Dallas on their toes but nobody comes back from 3-0. The Red Wings are the best. They've been the best all year and only Sidney Crosby on a mission even has a chance to beat them. Recalling what the Red Wings did to Eric Lindros on a mission back in the day, I feel for Crosby. Red Wings in 5.
East
Canadiens over Flyers in 6
Rangers over Penguins in 7
West
Red Wings over Avalanche in 6
Stars over Sharks in 7
I'm still struggling with the east, missed both picks in the semis. The way the Rangers sliced through the Devils, who impressed me throughout the regular season, led me to think that they would rise above the youthful Penguins. The Penguins would have none of it and bumrushed the Rangers quickly at home and did well back in New York. Crosby and Malkin are on the road to the Stanley Cup. I took Montreal over Philly just because they had a better record and their peripheral stats seemed better--I don't believe I saw either of these squads all season long. I caught quite a bit of Philly's 1st round match-up against the Caps and wasn't impressed with their attack, which disappears from time to time. I sorta figured that Montreal would be the veteran team that would rise above the inconsistent Flyers. Well they didn't. I gotta take the Pens' relentless attack over Philly's inconsistency. Penguins in 6.
The west, on the other hand, is quite clear to me. The Sharks were the fashionable pick at the beginning of the playoffs to get out of the west, the team that could go to Hockey Town and get it done. But the Stars peaked at the right time--need to keep that peak going for a coupla more weeks--and jumped out to a 3-0 lead. The Sharks are a good squad and they kept Dallas on their toes but nobody comes back from 3-0. The Red Wings are the best. They've been the best all year and only Sidney Crosby on a mission even has a chance to beat them. Recalling what the Red Wings did to Eric Lindros on a mission back in the day, I feel for Crosby. Red Wings in 5.
Saturday, May 3, 2008
NBA Playoffs recap -- Eastern Conference
I could've taken the Pistons in 5 but I think Andre Miller is one of the great underrated players I've ever seen and the Sixers will steal an early one from the Pistons and make it look interesting, maybe even go up 2-1. Then the Pistons put the clamp down and take them out. The Pistons are the better team and they know how to win but sometimes they lose themselves. They haven't won as much as they should have over the years. That said, they will not lose to Philly. Pistons in 6
Pistons in 6. I was more prescient than I had remembered about the Pistons-Sixers series. Like a heavyweight fighter, the Pistons liked to get smacked around a little before they get going. They're better and they always were but Miller and Iguodala are good players and when they get some help in there, they might be all right. The Pistons are too good for their own good: they seem to think the eastern conference championship is their birthright when they've actually been grand underachievers! I did not expect them to lose to the Sixers and they didn't, but they didn't impress, did they?
I believe all I've ever seen of Chris Bosh came while he was wearing a USA jersey 2 summers back. I'm not even sure what colors the Toronto Raptors wear. So for that reason alone I'm taking Orlando. I like what I see of Bargnani and with Bosh and TJ Ford, the Raptors got a nice nucleus going and in the east that alone gets you to the playoffs. Orlando is a little green but they've got explosive talent and I think they're ready to get better and I just don't think Toronto will stand in their way for long. Magic in 6
Magic in 5. Easy call. The Magic are ready to move on and grow while Toronto overachieved last year and made full advantage of the medocrity of the east this year. They've got some pieces in place but they need one big scorer (is there still life in Allen Iverson?) to make room for Bosh and Bargnani. Dwight Howard is an example of how basketball can be dominated by a single player. I'm not sure he's a great player but I'm convinced he's big and strong and against weaker competition in the east, he alone can push his team forward. Playing the Pistons will be a whole different struggle and we'll get a better gauge of Howard's dominance.
The Celtics were the best team in the league this year from beginning to end. That's pretty impressive and they should rightly see these playoffs as their time. The Hawks don't even posses a positive scoring differential and are coming in with a 3 game losing streak. The Celtics will lovingly carve up the Hawks in each of the first 4 games. Celtics in 4
Celtics in 7? Oh man, what is up with the Celtics? When the playoffs began one could make the argument that the Celtics were the best team; but no one could argue that the Hawks were anything other than the worst team in the playoffs. So how the hell did this happen? How did the Celtics get taken to 7 games? The Cavs are waiting you know! Credit the Hawks for letting it all hang out and give it up for the underappreciated Joe Johnson and maybe-should've-been-Rookie-of-the-Year Al Horford, they've got a coupla pieces there. But they're not as good as the Celtics, certainly not in Boston and the run ends tomorrow afternoon. But the Celtics have been scarred. Its not like the Pistons dropping 2 out of 3 to Philly, that was because the Pistons are occasionally lazy and unfocused. This is the Celtics losing to a team that is doing everything right at just the right time. This could makes the Celtics better or it could spell their doom. (Now is the time to remind that my pre-season pick was Cavs over Celtics in the east finals, Lebron over the Boston 3 Party is in the cards, no?)
2 years ago Lebron swept Arenas aside in ignominious fashion when really we should've seen a closer series. Last year the Wizards were decimated by injuries and couldn't hardly hope against Lebron on a mission. But this year finds the Cavs stagnating and the Wizards healthy and ready to rise. Probably shouldn't even go 7 but Lebron is a great player and he will fight hard to the end only to come up short. Wizards in 7
Cavs in 6. The Wizards have more talent but they don't have Lebron and they didn't play as a unified force in this series. They should've won this year, the Cavs were vulnerable and the Wizards pissed it away with tough talk and bullying play when what they needed to do was score more points! Will the Wizards keep the Arenas-Jamison-Butler nucleus and move forward next year or will they be dealing with the Mavs and Nuggets in the off-season? Last year the Cavs were Lebron and 4 other dudes; this year, they're Lebron and 4 even crappier other dudes. The only progression the Cavs can boast of is Lebron alone. Damn, he's a great player. Can he beat the Celtics by himself?
Pistons in 6. I was more prescient than I had remembered about the Pistons-Sixers series. Like a heavyweight fighter, the Pistons liked to get smacked around a little before they get going. They're better and they always were but Miller and Iguodala are good players and when they get some help in there, they might be all right. The Pistons are too good for their own good: they seem to think the eastern conference championship is their birthright when they've actually been grand underachievers! I did not expect them to lose to the Sixers and they didn't, but they didn't impress, did they?
I believe all I've ever seen of Chris Bosh came while he was wearing a USA jersey 2 summers back. I'm not even sure what colors the Toronto Raptors wear. So for that reason alone I'm taking Orlando. I like what I see of Bargnani and with Bosh and TJ Ford, the Raptors got a nice nucleus going and in the east that alone gets you to the playoffs. Orlando is a little green but they've got explosive talent and I think they're ready to get better and I just don't think Toronto will stand in their way for long. Magic in 6
Magic in 5. Easy call. The Magic are ready to move on and grow while Toronto overachieved last year and made full advantage of the medocrity of the east this year. They've got some pieces in place but they need one big scorer (is there still life in Allen Iverson?) to make room for Bosh and Bargnani. Dwight Howard is an example of how basketball can be dominated by a single player. I'm not sure he's a great player but I'm convinced he's big and strong and against weaker competition in the east, he alone can push his team forward. Playing the Pistons will be a whole different struggle and we'll get a better gauge of Howard's dominance.
The Celtics were the best team in the league this year from beginning to end. That's pretty impressive and they should rightly see these playoffs as their time. The Hawks don't even posses a positive scoring differential and are coming in with a 3 game losing streak. The Celtics will lovingly carve up the Hawks in each of the first 4 games. Celtics in 4
Celtics in 7? Oh man, what is up with the Celtics? When the playoffs began one could make the argument that the Celtics were the best team; but no one could argue that the Hawks were anything other than the worst team in the playoffs. So how the hell did this happen? How did the Celtics get taken to 7 games? The Cavs are waiting you know! Credit the Hawks for letting it all hang out and give it up for the underappreciated Joe Johnson and maybe-should've-been-Rookie-of-the-Year Al Horford, they've got a coupla pieces there. But they're not as good as the Celtics, certainly not in Boston and the run ends tomorrow afternoon. But the Celtics have been scarred. Its not like the Pistons dropping 2 out of 3 to Philly, that was because the Pistons are occasionally lazy and unfocused. This is the Celtics losing to a team that is doing everything right at just the right time. This could makes the Celtics better or it could spell their doom. (Now is the time to remind that my pre-season pick was Cavs over Celtics in the east finals, Lebron over the Boston 3 Party is in the cards, no?)
2 years ago Lebron swept Arenas aside in ignominious fashion when really we should've seen a closer series. Last year the Wizards were decimated by injuries and couldn't hardly hope against Lebron on a mission. But this year finds the Cavs stagnating and the Wizards healthy and ready to rise. Probably shouldn't even go 7 but Lebron is a great player and he will fight hard to the end only to come up short. Wizards in 7
Cavs in 6. The Wizards have more talent but they don't have Lebron and they didn't play as a unified force in this series. They should've won this year, the Cavs were vulnerable and the Wizards pissed it away with tough talk and bullying play when what they needed to do was score more points! Will the Wizards keep the Arenas-Jamison-Butler nucleus and move forward next year or will they be dealing with the Mavs and Nuggets in the off-season? Last year the Cavs were Lebron and 4 other dudes; this year, they're Lebron and 4 even crappier other dudes. The only progression the Cavs can boast of is Lebron alone. Damn, he's a great player. Can he beat the Celtics by himself?
NBA Playoffs recap -- Western Conference
Suns-Spurs is being billed as the best 1st round match in NBA history and I don't doubt it. These are 2 great teams going at it from the gitty--savor that, sports fan. The Spurs are assassins: they grind people down throughout the game, throughout the season, throughout the playoffs. But this year I just don't think their grind makes it. Note that as prolific as they've been, they haven't won back-to-back championships, they wear themselves down, its hard to sustain that pace. As great and underappreciated as they still are, I think they come up short here. It might as well be early. Shaq to the Suns was a head-scratcher at first but defending Duncan is why they got him, to clog the lane against a superior ball control offense like the Spurs. The Suns ran out of gas 2 years ago against the Mavs and were robbed last year by the Spurs (and the league). As bizarre as the Shaq-Suns experiment seemed at first, it has the potential to be something special. I think the Suns gut it out and I think the Spurs come up tired in game 7. Suns in 7
Spurs in 5. I was dead wrong about the Spurs. My gut told me the Spurs are the champs til they get beat. But I thought the Shaq trade would finally pay off and they'd keep Duncan locked down. Nope. Looking back on it Shaq was a poor replacement for Shawn Marion--especially at that price--and to see it any other way was sheer folly. The Suns were experimenting their way into San Antonio and that's just not gonna work. The experiment failed. Grant Hill and Raja Bell disappeared, Boris Diaw just can't carry the load, Leandro Barbosa didn't contribute. And Shaq was a colossal failure. In the midst of all that Stoudamire looked out of sync and Nash never got his finger on the pulse. The Hack-a-Shaq in the 2nd period of game 3 was Popovich at his most ruthless: he took the ball out of Nash's hands and kept the Suns supporting cast to get a rhythm going--right when they needed it most! Meanwhile, Tony Parker found every seam in the defense and shot at a John Stockton-in-his-prime percentage. Instead of getting brushed aside quickly, the Spurs are good and warmed up now. The Spurs don't come for moral victories, they come for rings.
Mavs-Hornets is an interesting and unexpected match. Is this the return of Dirk's Mavericks or will they be put out to pasture by the up-and-coming Chris Paul? For now, I'll go with Dirk. The Mavs played so hard last year but then forgot to beat the Warriors. This year the expectations are more measured, the egos are still bruised and they come in as the flailing veterans against a team that has overachieved all year long. I think Chris Paul carries the Hornets to 3 wins but not 4. I like Dirk and Kidd to find a way in game 7. Mavs in 7
Hornets in 5. 'Is this the return of Dirk's Mavericks or will they be put out to pasture by the up-and-coming Chris Paul?' Yeah, it’s the latter. Look for the Mavs to get blown up (I'd keep Dirk, maybe Josh Howard and no one else), while the Hornets sail their 6 man rotation into San Antonio. The Mavs looked tired, they never had the energy New Orleans brought and they weren't a cohesive squad. They got mushed. The Hornets have a great core but I'm not sure they're better than Utah was last year so I don't see them moving past the Spurs.
Jazz beat the Rockets last year in 7 games in the exact same match-up. The Jazz went on to the conference finals (because they got to stomp Golden State instead of facing #1 Dallas) and the Rockets went on to the 2nd longest winning streak in NBA history. So why are they in the same spots as last year? Seems like the Jazz should be better, they should've incorporated Millsap, Korver and Brewer into their game a little more and rehabilitated Kirilenko; the Rockets should've done better with Yao and worse without him, instead they plodded along just like the year before. These 2 teams are dangerous and yet they both seem so tired and unprepared. I'll take the Jazz in 6 but either way I don't like the chances of the winner of this series to go much further. Jazz in 6
Jazz in 6. I was generally right on Jazz-Rockets, though I would not have predicted the games would come out as they did. When the Jazz took the first 2 in Houston I figured sweep. But somehow they gave back game 3 and neglected to show up for game 5. If they'd come up short at home last night, they might've had trouble back in H-town but they got it done. Williams and Boozer were so impressive last year but this year they're not sneaking up on anybody and I'm not sure they're demonstrably better than last year.
I suspect the Lakers aren't as good as they look. But they've got Kobe. Gasol and Odom are a terrific back-up tandem but I'm not in love with Walton, Turiaf or Radmanovic as the difference makers. The Lakers can score a lot of points but I just don't see them as a complete team yet. Even with Bynum I just don't feel like they're good enough to win it all. They should, however, breeze through the Nuggets, who will want to play the same style of ball with maybe more talent but quite a bit less cohesion. The Nuggets will want to play motion offense/matador defense in a fast tempo and the Lakers will pound them mercilessly. Lakers in 5
Lakers in 4. Lakers-Nuggets was a pretty easy call. I'm not completely in love with the Lakers (not after the way the Spurs dusted off Phoenix) but they're a better team than Denver all the way around. The Nuggets need to be blown up. They don't play defense, they don't help each other and they act like brats. Keep Carmelo and the underappreciated Marcus Camby and let the rest drift. George Karl is just hanging around for the massive paychecks. Kenyon Martin was never much of a contributor in Denver. Iverson is too much of a ball hog to be a contributor and just not tough enough to carry a team on his back any more (when Deion Sanders lost a step, his game was virtually gone and that's where the Answer lies).
Spurs in 5. I was dead wrong about the Spurs. My gut told me the Spurs are the champs til they get beat. But I thought the Shaq trade would finally pay off and they'd keep Duncan locked down. Nope. Looking back on it Shaq was a poor replacement for Shawn Marion--especially at that price--and to see it any other way was sheer folly. The Suns were experimenting their way into San Antonio and that's just not gonna work. The experiment failed. Grant Hill and Raja Bell disappeared, Boris Diaw just can't carry the load, Leandro Barbosa didn't contribute. And Shaq was a colossal failure. In the midst of all that Stoudamire looked out of sync and Nash never got his finger on the pulse. The Hack-a-Shaq in the 2nd period of game 3 was Popovich at his most ruthless: he took the ball out of Nash's hands and kept the Suns supporting cast to get a rhythm going--right when they needed it most! Meanwhile, Tony Parker found every seam in the defense and shot at a John Stockton-in-his-prime percentage. Instead of getting brushed aside quickly, the Spurs are good and warmed up now. The Spurs don't come for moral victories, they come for rings.
Mavs-Hornets is an interesting and unexpected match. Is this the return of Dirk's Mavericks or will they be put out to pasture by the up-and-coming Chris Paul? For now, I'll go with Dirk. The Mavs played so hard last year but then forgot to beat the Warriors. This year the expectations are more measured, the egos are still bruised and they come in as the flailing veterans against a team that has overachieved all year long. I think Chris Paul carries the Hornets to 3 wins but not 4. I like Dirk and Kidd to find a way in game 7. Mavs in 7
Hornets in 5. 'Is this the return of Dirk's Mavericks or will they be put out to pasture by the up-and-coming Chris Paul?' Yeah, it’s the latter. Look for the Mavs to get blown up (I'd keep Dirk, maybe Josh Howard and no one else), while the Hornets sail their 6 man rotation into San Antonio. The Mavs looked tired, they never had the energy New Orleans brought and they weren't a cohesive squad. They got mushed. The Hornets have a great core but I'm not sure they're better than Utah was last year so I don't see them moving past the Spurs.
Jazz beat the Rockets last year in 7 games in the exact same match-up. The Jazz went on to the conference finals (because they got to stomp Golden State instead of facing #1 Dallas) and the Rockets went on to the 2nd longest winning streak in NBA history. So why are they in the same spots as last year? Seems like the Jazz should be better, they should've incorporated Millsap, Korver and Brewer into their game a little more and rehabilitated Kirilenko; the Rockets should've done better with Yao and worse without him, instead they plodded along just like the year before. These 2 teams are dangerous and yet they both seem so tired and unprepared. I'll take the Jazz in 6 but either way I don't like the chances of the winner of this series to go much further. Jazz in 6
Jazz in 6. I was generally right on Jazz-Rockets, though I would not have predicted the games would come out as they did. When the Jazz took the first 2 in Houston I figured sweep. But somehow they gave back game 3 and neglected to show up for game 5. If they'd come up short at home last night, they might've had trouble back in H-town but they got it done. Williams and Boozer were so impressive last year but this year they're not sneaking up on anybody and I'm not sure they're demonstrably better than last year.
I suspect the Lakers aren't as good as they look. But they've got Kobe. Gasol and Odom are a terrific back-up tandem but I'm not in love with Walton, Turiaf or Radmanovic as the difference makers. The Lakers can score a lot of points but I just don't see them as a complete team yet. Even with Bynum I just don't feel like they're good enough to win it all. They should, however, breeze through the Nuggets, who will want to play the same style of ball with maybe more talent but quite a bit less cohesion. The Nuggets will want to play motion offense/matador defense in a fast tempo and the Lakers will pound them mercilessly. Lakers in 5
Lakers in 4. Lakers-Nuggets was a pretty easy call. I'm not completely in love with the Lakers (not after the way the Spurs dusted off Phoenix) but they're a better team than Denver all the way around. The Nuggets need to be blown up. They don't play defense, they don't help each other and they act like brats. Keep Carmelo and the underappreciated Marcus Camby and let the rest drift. George Karl is just hanging around for the massive paychecks. Kenyon Martin was never much of a contributor in Denver. Iverson is too much of a ball hog to be a contributor and just not tough enough to carry a team on his back any more (when Deion Sanders lost a step, his game was virtually gone and that's where the Answer lies).
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