2018-19 NFL (Week 3)

Games I watched (some of):
Colts 16-20 Eagles
I've been more impressed with the Colts than perhaps any other team in the league, in terms of my preconceptions at the beginning of the season. I thought they'd be brutally bad and they are not, they look pretty good, Andrew Luck has more to work with than I anticipated and they look to be in the hunt for their division, I'd say. I thought the Eagles would struggle to be consistent but still be the class of their division and so far I think I'm right about that one. So the fact that the Colts were still in this game late is a testament to how good the Colts actually are and less an indictment on the Eagles, who look just fine right now. Good W for the Eagles, not a bad L for the Colts.

Bengals 21-31 Panthers
These teams are actually pretty similar in the sense that when they show up and run their offense with confidence, they're both pretty good. The Panthers controlled the ball well, especially in the 1st half, and while the Bengals were out of the game kinda quick, they hung around and had their moments, too; pretty good showing considering they didn't have Mixon. I thought the Bengals would keep it close and probably pull it out, but the Panthers played well--and they've finally got McCaffrey where they want him. Good W at home for the Panthers, not a bad L for the Bengals.

Cowboys 13-24 Seahawks

That Cowboy offense is....dull. The O-line doesn't push people around the way they used to and Elliot and Dak both seem tentative out there. I think that offense is gonna struggle all year long (wouldn't be surprised to see them get hot late). The Seahawks still have all the same problems they had last year--namely the D is not the classic squad it used to be and the offense is much too reliant on Russell Wilson by himself--but they look to be a team that will have their moments. The Cowboys just couldn't put up enough of a roadblock to keep themselves in the game. 

Pats 10-26 Lions

I kinda thought the Pats would struggle in this game. The Pats always kinda suck in September and this September looks even tougher than usual. As for the Lions, well, you know they've had this game circled on the schedule for a while. That said, I was kinda shocked at how overpowering the Lions ofeense was early on; on that first drive, they came up with 4th and inches at the 20 yard line and took the FG--why? I would've gone for it, that offense had the Pats on their heels all the way downfield and if you miss there, so be it, at least you've announced that you're coming out hard. As for the Pats, man, Brady has no one to throw to, the running game is non-existent, the defense looks slow, even the special teams look off-kilter. It's September Brady-Belichick always make it work out but they look a little deeper in the hole than usual. Good W for the Lions, lesson learning L for the Pats. 

Surprising results:
Bills 27-6 Vikings
Okay, it's easy to say that the Vikings just rolled out of bed Sunday morning, smoked a cigarette, and said, 'Be back in a coupla hours, babe, gotta go kill Buffalo.' But think of this way: in the first two weeks of the season the Bills were so poor that they gave the Vikings absolutely nothing to prepare for. So if Buffalo plays even the slightest bit hard and gets off to a good start, the Vikings would kinda be stuck just trying to figure out what's going on and that's pretty much what happened. The Vikings were clearly looking ahead to the next game against the Rams, figured they could finish the sorry ass Bills without much effort, but this is the NFL. Everybody's got world class athletes. Also, Buffalo's coach was quite impressive to me last year and despite the poor start, I still believe McDermott is for real. So, for the Vikings this is a lesson learned (although that may not be so apparent after they got throttled by the Rams this week), and for the Bills it is a recognition that they aren't as bad as they previously looked. I still believe the Vikings are one of the better teams in the league and that the Bills are mediocre but probably not horrible. We'll see.

Packers 17-31 Redskins
Aaron Rodgers clearly doesn't look 100% out there and that means the Packers will not look very good until he is. The Redskins didn't bring their best effort last week against the Colts, looks like they were saving it up for the Packers. I still believe the Packers can be really good (although not necessarily) and that the Redskins are probably pretty good.

Titans 9-6 Jags
If you told me the Titans scored 9 points at Jacksonvile, I would think, 'Oh, okay, Jags won 21-9.' For some reason the Titans have the Jags bedeviled, that happens among division rivals, I don't think this result means the Jags aren't good or that the Titans are. I wouldn't be surprised, for example, if the Jags win in Tennessee later on this year.

Giants 27-22 Texans
Okay, I'm officially off the Texans bandwagon. Just felt like getting back their hot young QB and the badass defenders that were out last year was gonna usher in good times in Houston--and that stay may be true. But for now they've got to find their legs. Don't be surprised if the Texans look like crap til November then get hot at the end of the season. As for the Giants, I still subscribe to the Eli Principal: he makes good teams bad and bad teams good. A win in Houston suggests to me that NYG are not good.


Other results (not so surprising):
Jets 17-21 Browns
The Browns have talent now and turning the program over to Baker Mayfield is probably the best thing for them right now: let the new guy do what he can with the talent that's been accrued. I still don't think they'll win much but they won't be as awful as recent years. I'm skeptical of the Jets and was not won over by that big win in Detroit. I still think they suck and I never had any reason to think they were better than Cleveland.

Saints 43-37 (ot) Falcons
Division games can always go either way. Throw in that the Saints have a proclivity for waiting til the last second to win games and it should come as no surprise that the pulled it out in OT in Atlanta, even though it seemed like the Falcons had this game in hand. The Falcons will struggle on D thanks to the bevy of early injuries they suffered but I still think that offense can win games. Just not against Drew Brees.

Niners 27-38 Chiefs
Considering the Niners lost Jimmy G for the year, they did well to drop 27 in KC. That said, that Chiefs D is troublingly bad. But Mahomes is still the man and that offense is humming.

Raiders 20-28 Dolphins
Yeah, this seems about right. The Dolphins are a year in/year out 'okay' squad. The Raiders have decent talent but are still a supremely sloppy side.

Broncos 14-27 Ravens
The Ravens are good at home, the Broncos suck on the road. I kinda thought this game would be closer but this isn't a shock.

Chargers 23-35 Rams
Yeah, as predictable a result as I've seen all year. The Rams are crushing right now on both sides, while the Chargers are the Chargers, man.

Bears 16-14 Cards
Hmmmm, that Bears D is so good that it makes you overlook how downright mediocre that offense is. The Cards are struggling but that's what they were built to do. 

Steelers 30-27 Bucs
Both teams can score, feels like neither team is particularly good on defense. If the Bucs just make one or two more plays, they would've won this game.

2018-19 NCAA Football (Week 4)

Games I watched (some of):
(23) Texas A&M 23-41 (1) Alabama
Over the years A&M has given Nick Saban problems so I thought this might be a test for the Tide. Well, it kinda was: Alabama played well, controlled the game, but you still get the feeling they could/should be a lot better than they are. A&M made some plays, hung well enough while never having much of a shot at winning. Bama is either going to get a lot better as the season goes on or this could be one of those years when they stumble, not sure yet.

(18) Wisconsin 28-17 Iowa
A lot closer than the score indicates. This was a fun game, back-and-forth kinda game, thought they were fairly even but Wisconsin made the plays down the stretch. Good W for the Badgers, tough L for the Hawkeyes.


Top 25
Handled their business
(1) Alabama, (2) Georgia, (3) Clemson, (4) Ohio State, (6) LSU, (7) Stanford, (8) Notre Dame, (9) Auburn, (10) Penn State, (10) Washington, (12) West Virginia, (16) Central Florida, (18) Wisconsin, (19) Michigan, (21) Miami, (24) Michigan State, (25) BYU


Got it done but did not impress
(5) Oklahoma (OT to Army at home?  Hmmm, I figured making those Army boys look forward to Afghanistan was more likely but the Cadets gave them a legit scare)


Bad beat
(20) Oregon (feels like one that got away but realistically that score was just about right)
(22) Texas A&M (hey, man, Alabama is good, A&M did well to sorta stay in this one)
(23) Boston College (wasn't sure they were worthy of ranking, not sure Purdue is bad, this result doesn't look that strange to me)


Not good
(13) Virginia Tech (getting rolled over by an 0-3 Old Dominion?  That's...that's not good)
(14) Mississippi State (well, well, well, are you ready for Kentucky?)
(15) Oklahoma State (yipes! They got destroyed at home by Texas Tech!)
(17) TCU (never got going against Texas, the Big 12 got shook this weekend)

2018-19 NFL (Week 2)

Games I watched (some of):
Chiefs 42-37 Steelers

1) Yeah, dude, Pat Mahomes is the shit! and 2) Ooooh, that Steelers D is not good (nor is the Chiefs'). Back and forth and yet it never felt like the Steelers were gonna pull it out.  The Steelers can score--even without LaVeon Bell and probably even without Antonio Brown--but unless that defense comes together, hard to see them going deep in the post-season. The Chiefs, on the other hand, look capable of outscoring just about everyone they play even with their rickety D. Fun game.

Vikings 29-29 Packers
Wow, another fun game. Gotta say: I was really impressed with Kirk Cousins, he got it done in Lambeau, should've gotten the W. Even with Aaron Rodger on the other side, I kinda felt like the Vikings were always gonna pull it out and they should have--two missed FG's in OT is the only reason they didn't. The Packers are as good as Rodgers but the Vikings look as good as I thought they would be.

Jags 31-20 Pats
(Hmmm...did they both score some late points? I don't remember that much scoring) Bortles looked great! The Pats couldn't solve the Jags pass rush and the Pats D did not look so strong. The Pats are still the Pats--it's early--but, I dunno, man, not many playmakers on the offensive side and the defense looks a step behind out there. I had my doubts about the Jags, thought they got hot at the right time last year and while I was suitably impressed with that defense, the offense still looked shaky to me. They looked good in New England, though, and that's a good sign.

Giants 13-20 Cowboys
Saquon Barkley looked good...too bad it doesn't feel like the rest of that NYG offense is going to help him much. That O line does not look sturdy enough to make Eli workable (and I believe he can still be 'workable'). The Cowboys were fine, a strong opening drive, good enough defense. My thought was that Cowboys would struggle, then get hot late (likely hot enough to doom them to another year of Coach Garrett. Don't think anyone will run away with this division.


Surprising results:
Ravens 23-34 Bengals
Thought the Ravens had a good opportunity to steal a division W on the road, thought they were simply better than the Bengals, but I was probably wrong. I think the Bengals might actually be kinda good, think the Ravens will be their typical up/down all year.

Colts 21-9 Redskins
Surprised at how strong that Colts D looked in this game, they could actually be pretty good. The Redskins had a chance to get a W here and they let it get away from them, I thought the Redskins would take a step forward this season but this is exactly the kind of loss I thought they'd avoid.

Eagles 21-27 Bucs
The Bucs are still getting it done (so far), the Eagles are still looking soft out there. Two teams, two brewing QB controversies. Who gets traded first: Nick Foles or Jameis Winston?


Other results (not so surprising):
Panthers 24-31 Falcons
I thought the game would be closer, but not surprised by the result.

Texans 17-20 Titans
I'm still expecting the Texans to step up, guessing that once DeShaun Watson gets his feet under him, they could take off. The Titans are fine, looking 8-8-ish to me (Colts look better than I would've thought, that could be a problem for the Titans).

Dolphins 20-12 Jets
Thought the Jets would get the W at home but division games can always go either way. The Dolphins might be kinda good this year (if the Pats stay soft...could this be the year?).

Chargers 31-20 Bills
Seems like the Chargers took the foot off the gas in the 2nd half, I'm still not terribly impressed by them, though that offense will have good days. The Bills...well...I guess I can see that defense getting stronger but not seeing any offense to speak of yet.

Browns 18-21 Saints
Ehhh, the Saints have the (bad) habit of waiting til the last second to secure their W's so this shouldn't be that shocking--though, man, they were cutting it close in this one. The Browns are getting there, not likely to get too many W's but they've got talent.

Lions 27-30 Niners
Not sure what to think of the Lions piling up 27 points on the road but otherwise the result seems about right.

Cards 0-34 Rams
Yup: Rams are good, Cards are not.

Raiders 19-20 Broncos
The Raiders almost had this but the Broncos made a good comeback. Tough L for the Raiders, a good W for the Broncos.

Seahawks 17-24 Bears
Sounds about right. Little surprised the Seahawks had as much success as they did on that Bears D, but the result seems about right.


Every other week I'll remove two teams from playoff contention. Never done this before, just wanna see how it goes.
Week 2 -- Bills, Cards (these are both easy calls, they're both rebuilding)

2018-18 NCAA Football (Week 3)

Games I watched (some of):
(4) Ohio State 40-28 (15) TCU
Gotta admit: I thought TCU was better. The Buckeyes had a defensive spasm in the 3rd where they blocked a punt and picked off a pass, allowing them to clock 3 TD's in like a minute and a half, game changer.  Before that I thought TCU was quite comfortably in control of this game--man, I was really impressed with TCU WR's, they made a lot of great catches. But the Buckeyes did what they needed to do and once they got the lead, they responded and salted the game away. Really good W for the Buckeyes, tough L for TCU.

(12) LSU 22-21 (7) Auburn
LSU got off to a good start, Auburn clawed back to take the lead, LSU engineered a perfect 4th quarter drive to steal the W. Really a good game, if a little uneven. Both teams made plays when they needed to, both played stout D. I was generally impressed with both (though hard to imagine either of them challenging Alabama in the SEC West). Good W for LSU, tough loss for Auburn.

Vanderbilt 17-22 (8) Notre Dame
Vandy had their chance to take this game late--that's gotta be scary for Notre Dame fans! Vandy is a team that is light on talent but usually strong on fundamentals, if you mess around these guys can beat you. So did Notre Dame take this team lightly or are they just not very good? Shaky W for Notre Dame (2nd in a row for them), good effort from Vandy.


Top 25
Handled their business
(1) Alabama, (2) Clemson, (3) Georgia, (4) Ohio State, (5) Oklahoma, (9) Stanford, (10) Washington, (11) Penn State, (12) LSU, (16) Mississippi State, (19) Michigan, (20) Oregon, (21) Miami, (24) Oklahoma State


Got it done but did not impress
(8) Notre Dame (hmmmm....struggled at home to Vandy after struggling at home to Ball State....how is Michigan feeling right now?)


Bad beat
(15) TCU (except for a defensive burst in the 3rd, TCU was more or less better than the Buckeyes)
(7) Auburn (yeah, a conference loss at home is more than a Bad Beat but LSU is better than advertised and this game was pretty even)
(17) Boise State (I dunno, they kinda got run but it was a road game to a good squad, so I'm calling it a Bad Beat)


Not good
(6) Wisconsin (they don't run up the points on people (re: they're suspect on big spreads) but they forgot to score enough to win this one)
(22) Southern Cal (didn't get much going against Texas, not a good look this early in the season)
(23) Arizona State (didn't see it, have no idea what happened)


Hurricane cancellations (stay strong, Carolinas!)
(13) Virginia Tech, (14) West Virginia, (18) Central Florida

2018-19 NFL (Week 1)

Games I saw (some of):

Bears 23-24 Packers
Oh, man, what a game! Rodgers uber alles! That bomb TD to Allison was the turning point for me: hobbling around on one leg, I assumed that was precisely the pass he couldn't make. Nah, he made it just fine. I knew it was over for the Bears right there. That said, the Bears still had chances on both sides of the ball to finish out that game. The Bears had obstacles: first time coach, a QB still figuring it out, a defense that looked good but is still basically brand new, hostile environment in front of a national audience....but make no mistake Aaron Rodgers was the biggest impediment for the Bears. The Packers were--and still are--my Super Bowl pick, as long as that knee still works (and maybe even if it doesn't), the Packers should plan on going deep in the playoffs. As for the Bears, well this is hardly the first time they've ever lost at Lambeau Field and there's still plenty to build on--Mack was bananas and Smith just barely got his feet wet, that D may be the best in the league.

Cowboys 8-16 Panthers
These could be the two most boring offenses in the league this season. Cowboys just never got anything going for Dak (sprayed passes) or Zeke (didn't hit the holes with confidence) and the defense was fine but nothing special; I thought the Panther got more out of McCaffrey than anything I saw last year: as an underneath option, he really looked like he could be the escape valve that Cam needs. I think the Panthers can get better (if Cam would step up and lead, they'd be fine but he still looks like he's only half paying attention out there) but the Cowboys just looked like they're gonna be mediocre all season long.

Titans 20-27 Dolphins
Fun game, weird game, but a lot of fun. The 1pm game was delayed for lightning twice, so the game just kinda came and went all day long. Didn't get a feel for the action, except that the Dolphins offense impressed me more than the Titans, who suffered major injuries during the game but still never looked any better than the Dolphins. I was lukewarm on both teams (though I think I thought the Dolphins would be better than most people think), but now I'm a little more optimistic about the Dolphins and less so about the Titans.

Bengals 34-23 Colts
Really impressed with Andrew Luck but still totally unimpressed with the rest of the Colts roster. The Bengals were good enough on both sides, I still kinda think the Bengals will be okay. The Colts will go as far as Luck can carry them but I fear another injury coming for him, he has to do too much, no way he holds up for 16 games. If the Bengals can catch the Steelers slippin', they might hang around the playoff race all season long.

Falcons 12-18 Eagles
I picked the Falcons to pull it out in the end (just like last year in the playoffs) and they had their chance but couldn't get it done (just like last year in the playoffs). I thought the Falcons were the better team in the 1st half but they just couldn't get points on the board; Eagles turned it around in the 2nd half but I wasn't exactly blown away by that offense. I thought the Falcons would have a good year but I kinda thought the Eagles would struggle, I think I still think both of those things.


Other results (that surprised me):
Niners 16-24 Vikings

That score isn't a shock, this actually sounds about right...until you dig into the stats. Seems like the Vikings played a flawless game while the Niners struggled all over the place. So...why didn't the Vikings win by 400 points? If the Niners played well on the road I can imagine them still falling by a TD to the Vikings, but if Jimmy G struggled and Kirk Cousins dominated his debut...why was this game close? 

Bucs 48-40 Saints

Okay, this is a shocker! Are the Bucs the Bucs that everyone always (used to) think they're gonna be? Are the Saints finally gonna lose a step and fall to pieces? "No" to the first, the Bucs just had a summer of flying under the radar and the (temporary?) switch to a veteran 2nd stringer seems to have been just the thing to kick off the season; "maybe" to the second question, that offense looked just fine but, yipes, that defense just gave up a gajillion yards to that dude that wasn't good enough for Buffalo or Houston. Okay, seems like the Saints are gonna be up and down all year but I still see them as a division winner and as for the Bucs, come on, man they are born to go 5-11. 

Bills 3-47 Ravens

Not shocked that the Bills are awful but, damn, man, to get dropkicked by Joe Flacco has got to hurt. The Bills have a fading defense, a fading running game, no skill position talent, a rookie QB and don't even look to be above average on special teams. Oh, man, Bills fans can go ahead and start planning for that #1 pick. I had a feeling the Ravens might be kinda good this season, if the Steelers stay this unimpressive, the Ravens might sail into the post-season.

Jets 48-17 Lions

I had the Jets being flat awful this year, this result would suggest that they won't be awful, but I'm not sure this means they'll be any good. The Lions have been in the almost-good-enough-QB ghetto for a while now: when you're QB is better than average but not as good as the top tier QB's, ahhh, man, that's the worst place to be in all of sports. Another coupla years of playing out Stafford's contract (hmmmm, think Belichick can get W's out of Stafford in the post-Brady years?) and then they get to move on. *sigh* And now the Bears have a stout D...and Rodgers is winning games on one leg...and the Vikings are maybe the most complete team in the league....*sigh* As for the Jets, nice start for Savior Sam Darnold, that'll give the salty New Yorkers something to look forward to for a while, but not sure this means they'll actually be any good. 

Other results (no surprise):
Steelers 21-21 Browns
Not a shock, really. Neither team was good enough to win, so they both lost (yeah, in football that's what a tie is). You may be surprised, but look back to Week One last season: Steelers had to come back and snatch the W late--against one of the worst teams in NFL history! The Browns have built some talent, they'll be in games this year--hell, they'll even win one or two--and they'll look most effective against division teams. The Steelers have plenty of talent and know-how but, man, Big Ben is deteriorating badly, not sure the Steelers will get better until they move at QB (there's a Nike poster boy just waiting for the call, even has a Ben-like style, no?).

Texans 20-27 Pats
The Pats won at home. It wasn't a blowout but no big deal. The Pats don't play for style points. The Texans have a lot of room to get better and putting up a good showing in Foxboro is hardly a bad start to the season but everybody knows that O line needs work; the Pats are the Pats, they'll be fine.

Jags 20-15 Giants
Yeah, that seems right. Jags are unspectacular but are probably good enough to sneak more W's than L's; the Giants are uninspiring but will bust out every once in a while.

Chiefs 38-28 Chargers
The Chiefs look like they might awesome (at least on offense), while the Chargers look like...the Chargers.

Seahawks 24-27 Broncos
The Broncos are another squad that I think might be kinda good--or at least good enough to squeak some W's. Yeah, this isn't that great a win but I can see them pulling out a few more so-so wins like this. The Seahawks look kinda awful and, yeah, I think that's gonna hold up (I'd go ahead and sit Russell Wilson, if I was them).

Redskins 24-6 Cards
The Cards look truly terrible, like they're gonna be dueling with the Bills for that #1 pick. On the other hand, I can see the Redskins being kinda good. For the last few years I've thought they looked good when they weren't shooting themselves in the foot and if we've learned anything about Alex Smith, it's that he doesn't shoot himself in the foot. They might not blow anyone away but I can see the Redskins being pretty not-bad all season long.

Rams 33-13 Raiders
Yeah, Rams are good, Raiders are not. Learned nothing from this result that I didn't already know.

2018-19 NCAA Football (Week 2)

Games I saw (some of):
(3) Georgia 41-17 (24) South Carolina
I thought South Carolina would give the Bulldogs a game--and even rationalized the pick-6 Carolina spotted UGA early on. Hey, at halftime it still seemed like an even game. But the 2nd half was all Georgia. Felt like they were gonna score every time they touched the ball and that South Carolina had no chance. Good win for Georgia, tough loss for South Carolina.

UCLA 21-49 (6) Oklahoma
Right off the bat OU got jobbed: went for a big pass over the middle on the first play, I thought it was defensive interference, the refs did not. Then I don't recall the specific play, but UCLA got away with a non-call on their next possession, which ended in a TD. Seems like an early 14-point swing would make a difference but, nah, OU settled in and steadily pummeled the Bruins, who had no offensive attack to speak of. Pointless TD at the end covered the 30 point spread, so...you know...not a total loss for Bruin fans.

(13) Penn State 51-6 Pitt
Didn't see much of this but what I did see was the Nittany Lions thrashing the Panthers mercilessly. Kinda thought Penn State might come in hungover from last year's nail biter against App State, but, no, they came in ready to play.

Samford 26-36 Florida State
Hey, man, until Samford's best defender (Ahmad Gooden--remember that name because that guy'll be playing on Sundays!) went out on a targeting penalty (yeah, it was good call) late in the 3rd quarter, the Seminoles were getting outplayed in every way. The Samford QB was moving the ball, their WR's were making plays, the Samford special teams was better and that kid Gooden lived in FSU's backfield. It wasn't a fluke. But Gooden went out, then QB Francois was able to settle down some, they finally had a good drive in the 4th quarter, then a late pick-6 sealed it. But anyone who watched that game will not be putting money on Florida State this season.



Top 25
Handled their business
(1) Alabama, (3) Georgia, (4) Ohio State, (5) Wisconsin, (6) Oklahoma, (7) Auburn, (9) Washington, (10) Stanford, (11) LSU, (12) Virginia Tech, (13) Penn State, (14) West Virginia, (16) TCU, (18) Mississippi State. (19) Central Florida, (20) Boise State, (21) Michigan, (22) Miami, (23) Oregon

Didn't impress but did what they needed to do
(2) Clemson. I thought I was crazy for thinking Furman actually looked kinda good against Clemson last week, but after they barely squeaked by A&M, Clemson is not exactly blowing me away like they did last season. I dunno, A&M is sometimes sneaky good (and sometimes sneaky bad), it's too early to think Clemson's season is over (but when it all goes wrong, it's not like the signs weren't there).
(8) Notre Dame. Ooooh, they did not look good against Ball State. Not good, man.

Bad beat
(17) USC. Meh, they didn't get blown out by Stanford but they never had much shot at a W.
(24) South Carolina. The game felt close at halftime, but not much longer after that.

Not good
(15) Michigan State. Sparty's always hard to figure but this does not look like a vintage side
(25) Florida. Ha! I can now no longer say I was at the game the last time Kentucky beat Florida (but I can still say was at the game the next-to-last time Kentucky beat Florida and that might last me for a while).

2018-19 NFL Over/Unders

On the one hand I feel like I did more research than ever on the upcoming NFL season; on the other, it all looks exactly the same as last year. And the year before. I dunno, man, somehow paying attention to football doesn't make me understand football any better. Anyway, I went through the whole schedule, picked winners, ended up with this.

AFC East
Pats (11) (over/12-4)
Dolphins (6.5) (over/7-9)
Bills (6) (push/6-10)
Jets (6) (under/2-14)

(12-4) I always kinda assume each year that this is the year it all falls apart for the Pats. Brady and Belichik allow the team to get by on a whole lotta duct tape and the moment something bad happens, that whole team can be pretty bad pretty fast. Is this the year? I don't see why it would be. They're still better than the rest of that division.
(7-9) As for the rest of that division, looks the same as ever to me. Dolphins have nothing at all and win 6-8 games every year. Seven W's seems crazy, but I don't see why not.
(6-10) Buffalo has had O-line problems since the Doug Flutie days (ahh, man, I'd love to have Doug Flutie right now), but usually has a good D, a decent running game and somehow manages to score more than you think possible. This year I don't think they reach their typical 8-8, but not too far off.
(2-14) I'm not buying the Jets, man. They've got their savior, they've finally got a coach that knows what he's doing and the fans are all excited...yeah, do you realize how often that happens? Every year. Every year they're like this. NYC is allergic to winning, the Yanks are still generally good but the rest of the teams have never been good and I don't see that changing any time soon (NYG and the Devils aren't NYC, which is why they are allowed success from time to time, Nets used to have that but they gave it up, *smh*). I bet NYJ isn't any better than Miami or Buffalo. It's cool, they'll be excited about a top five pick, it'll give them something new to complain about (just like every year).

AFC North
Steelers (10.5) (under/10-6)
Ravens (8) (over/10-6)
Bengals (6.5) (over/7-9)
Browns (5.5) (under/3-13)

(10-6) Ben took a step back last year, not hard to see him take another step back this year. That said, that offense could still be really good. And the defense, too. I don't see them going deep in the playoffs but I think they'll make it.
(10-6) Count me firmly in the crowd that loathes Joe Flacco, that guy had one good playoff run and made a whole career around it (impressive in its way). But I can see him being kinda good this year, if he can be good enough to set up the running game, that D is still good enough to keep them in pretty much every game. (I think this team covers a lot of underdog money) But I still got them behind the Steelers.
(7-9) I gotta feeling the Bengals are the team most like last year. They're the kind of organization that runs like clockwork...dull, uninspiring clockwork.
(3-13) The talent is moving in the right direction, I can see them having a good D line and running game (a la last year's Bears). They'll be in more games and should be more fun to watch, but I don't see them winning games until Coach Hue is gone (got a feeling that in the spring of 2019, this may be the coaching gig that everyone wants).

AFC South
Jags (9) (over/11-5)
Texans (8.5) (over/11-5)
Titans (8) (under/7-9)
Colts (6.5) (under/6-10)

(11-5) The Jags finally had some success after years of being terrible, do they keep it going or revert back to crappy form when they remember that their QB sucks? Ehh, I like that D to keep carrying them and that running game to keep bringing in some W's.
(11-5) If the Texans avoid the crushing injuries they had last year, they could be really really good. I think they stay healthy enough to scare some folks.
(7-9) The Titans are a team I could be totally wrong about. They've got decent talent all over the field, I like Mariotta at QB and you gotta think Mike Vrabel is gonna be a better coach than what they've had over the years. That said, I have to see it first, they look like a 7-9 squad to me.
(6-10) The Colts, too, I may be underrating, but Andrew Luck has been out so long, it's hard to imagine he just rides in and kicks ass. Especially since I thought that roster was bad when Luck was there and didn't improve when he left.

AFC West
Chiefs (8.5) (over/11-5)
Broncos (7) (over/8-8)

Chargers (9.5) (under/7-9)

Raiders (8) (under 4-12)

(11-5) I think the Chiefs are the most sturdy, reliable team in that division (and I kinda think the rest of the division is soft anyway). If Mahomes is half as good as the hype-sters believe, I think the Chiefs could handily crush that division.
(8-8) They look like a mess but that D-line is still really really good. If they can run the ball, they'll still be in most games.
(7-9) Yes, I know the Chargers are one those teams that everyone has their eye on. But I'm not seeing it. What's gonna happen this year that didn't happen last year? How have they improved? They have a knack for winning games they should lose and losing games they should win, which in this case leads me to think 7 W's at the most.
(4-12) I wasn't a big fan of the Raiders' chances this year anyway but giving away Kahlil Mack (not good enough deal to let go of one of the best players in the league) just finishes them off, no? Not only are they a mediocre roster, figuring out a new coach, now they just gave away their best player right before the season starts...must be crushing that locker room. I have no reason to think Gruden will be any good at all and it seems like he's trying to remold the whole roster on the fly...not good. They might be really really awful (like, really really awful).

NFC East
Eagles (10) (under/9-7)
Redskins (7) (over/9-7)

Cowboys (8.5) (under/7-9)

Giants (7) (under/6-10)

(9-7) The Eagles are strangely not favored to win a lot of games this year but they do have a tough schedule. I think they're up and down all year but I still like them to win the division.
(9-7) I like the Redskins and I think Alex Smith is kinda perfect for them. I think they're up and down all year and just miss the playoffs.
(7-9) I had the Cowboys playing terrible early on, rallying late but coming up short. Right when you think the Cowboys are brutally bad, they'll go on a late run to sorta seem relevant.
(6-10) I think the Giants have their moments but finish in the bottom of the division (which is probably the worst fate possible for NYG fans).

NFC Central
Vikings (10) (over/13-3)
Packers (10) (over/12-4)

Bears (6.5) (under/6-10)

Lions (7.5) (under/5-11)

(13-3) This is a classic Vikings squad: killer D-line, killer O-line, pretty good skill players. Randy Moss ain't walking through that door but I like Kirk Cousins to step in and manage that offense just fine. The team runs itself, it's up to Cousins to make it work for him. I like them to kinda dominate the regular season.
(12-4) Rodgers makes all teams good. If he plays 16 games, they'll win at least 10. I like them to win 12 and roll into the playoffs (just like I thought last year).
(6-10) I was kinda impressed with the Bears last year, good RB and good D line, that's a good way for a bad team to get good. I like them to be better this year, especially with Kahlil Mack. But even thought I like Trubisky to take a (mild) step forward, they're in a tough division (2019-2020 could be their time).
(5-11) The Lions, man. They're good for five W's, not an un-fun team to watch, but not a team that's gonna win games.

NFC South
Saints (9.5) (over/11-5)
Panthers (9) (over/10-6)
Falcons (9) (over/10-6)
Bucs (6.5) (under/3-13)

(11-5) It feels crazy to pick the Saints to win 11 games but I dunno, why not? I think they kick ass at home, do well enough on the road and take the division.
(10-6) I thought I liked the Falcons better than the Panthers, but I ended up with Panthers 2nd and not making the playoffs. Ouch!
(10-6) I like to Falcons to have a good bounce back year and not make the playoffs either. Ouch!
(3-13) The day will come when the Bucs are good again, when that D is actually as good at it seems like it oughta be, when the QB troubles finally disappear, when the organization gets back to those days when it they were in the conference finals every year. But I don't think that day comes this year. I just don't see how they keep up in that division.


NFC West
Rams (10) (over/11-5)
Niners (8.5) (over/11-5)
Cards (5.5) (under/5-11)

Seahawks (8) (under/4-12)

(11-5) It took me several weeks last season to warm up to the Rams. I did though and I think they're gonna be good again.
(11-5) I'm in on Jimmy G. The way he rolled into that lineup last year and won games--when the team wasn't even trying!--I was impressed right away. That dude's good. (I bet Belichick's been hitting the Pepto hard since that trade) Throw in that the Cards and Seahawks are going in the wrong direction and I like the Niners to kick some ass.
(5-11) Last year they steadily descended into a tired bunch with nothing left to play for. The team deteriorated badly and, though I've always kinda liked Sam Bradford, I don't see how they get better. They got just enough talent to win five-ish games.
(4-12) Last year that offense was Russell Wilson making magic happen--if they'd made the playoffs he'd have been MVP--with no help at the skill positions and a terrible O-line. My guess is another year of that does not get any better and the vaunted D is pretty ordinary now. I can see them being pretty bad.


Playoff Predictions
AFC
Texans over Steelers, Chiefs over Ravens
Pats over Texans, Chiefs over Jags
Chiefs over Pats

NFC
Packers over Eagles, Saints over Niners
Vikings over Saints, Packers over Rams
Packers over Vikings

Super Bowl
Packers over Chiefs (a replay of SB I)


Something about these various numbers don't look right to me and looking back at the end of the season will undoubtedly look bizarre. But, here we are.

2018-19 NCAA Football (Week 1)

I watched (some of):
Louisville 14-51 (1) Alabama
Frankly Alabama didn't even look like they were trying all that hard and they straight pummeled Louisville. The Cardinals are probably not at their best right now but Bama did not let them get much going.

Furman 7-48 (2) Clemson
Frankly I was reasonably impressed with Furman: they played hard, they did not look intimidated, they even made some plays along the way. This was probably the closest 41 point game I've ever seen. Clemson took a while to get going but the sheer depth of talent eventually won out easily.

Oregon State 31-77 (5) Ohio State
Now follow me: the Buckeyes usually start slow and without Urban Meyer I thought Oregon State had a shot at giving them a game; but instead, without Urban Meyer, the team rallied quicker...? Does that make sense? Well, anyway, the Buckeyes came out fast, got a big lead, kinda coasted after halftime. As for Oregon State, man, how do you score 4 TD's and still lose by 40 points?

(6) Washington 16-21 (9) Auburn
Good game. Both these teams were similar, game went back and forth, both played well, Auburn made the plays down the stretch. This is a good W for Auburn and not a bad L for Washington.

(14) Michigan 17-24 (12) Notre Dame
Good game. Notre Dame made the most of their chances, whereas Michigan kinda fumbled around. I like Michigan's backup QB better than the starter, wonder if that'll be a thing for them this year. Wasn't blown away by either team, thought they were both solid and very similar teams. Notre Dame was able to build a lead, Wolverines couldn't get back into the game. Good W for the Irish.

(17) West Virginia 40-14 Tennessee
I kinda expected UT to get into this game, but it didn't happen. WVU ran it up quick and held the momentum all through the 2nd half. They looked good and Tennessee did not.

(8) Miami 17-33 (25) LSU
Man, the Hurricanes never looked into the game. All last season I was skeptical of the Hurricanes and then they won games down the stretch that I thought they'd lose, so now I don't know what to think of them. But after watching LSU dominate them, I'm nowhere near any kind of Hurricans bandwagon. Not sure if LSU looked as good as Auburn (maybe) or Alabama (probably not) but they look like they're gonna be in the mix in the SEC West.



Top 25
Handled their business
(1) Alabama, (2) Clemson, (3) Georgia, (4) Wisconsin, (5) Ohio State, (7) Oklahoma
(9) Auburn, (12) Notre Dame, (13) Stanford, (15) Southern Cal, (16) TCU, (17) West Virginia, (18) Mississippi State, (20) Virginia Tech, (21) Central Florida, (22) Boise State, (24) Oregon, (25) LSU

Didn't impress but did what they needed to do
(10) Penn State (when will people learn to avoid App State on opening week?)
(11) Michigan State (hmmm...feels like Sparty should've made quicker work of this opening day opponent but Utah State's generally not bad, so perhaps this was a good test for them)

Not good
(8) Miami (could be that LSU is wildly underrated but the Hurricanes were never really in this game and that is seriously disappointing for a top 10 squad)
(19) Florida State (again, could be that Virginia Tech is underrated, but the Seminoles did not look good and that is not good for a veteran squad that has ambitions)
(23) Texas (another year, another disappointing match against Maryland)

Bad beat
(6) Washington (Auburn's good, close game, not a bad loss for the Huskies)
(14) Michigan (thought they were even with the Irish, just came up short; disappointing but not a bad loss)

(Ahhhhhhhh, nice to have college football back)