Man U 3-2 AC Milan

Man U came out with more goals but those 2 goals on the road might push Milan through to the next round. While watching the game they seemed to be debating whether Cristian Ronaldo should get credit for that first goal or whether it was own goal by Dida; Dida didn't touch the ball into the goal, he couldn't keep it out of the goal, thus Ronaldo deserves the score. Kaka was brilliant in the first half, both of his goals were marvelous! But the second half was brutal for them. After losing Gattuso to an injury and subbing out Gilardino, their only forward, Milan had no offense at all--it was like they were allergic to the ball or something, no touch whatsoever. And packing it in on D was a tough gig without Maldini or Gattuso. Rooney, Ronaldo, Giggs and Scholes controlled the ball and they got 2 goals back. (I thought Evra got jobbed--twice, actually, but has nothing but a yellow card to show for it) I picked Milan before and I'll stick with them, but they better bring more offense at home.

More hockey

Okay, we're almost to the best part of the NHL season. But until then I'm just thumbnailing it.

Rangers-Sabres
Senators-Devils
The Sabres were the best in the east this year but the Rangers just smoked in Atlanta in the first round. I care not for momentum, I'll take the best squad. Sabres in 6.

The Senators got the scoring, the Devils got the D. I'll take the scoring. Senators in 7.

Canucks-Ducks
Sharks-Red Wings
I just like the Ducks, got a feeling about those Ducks. Canucks beat the better team in the first round but the momentum doesn't carry over to Anaheim. Ducks in 7.

I like the Sharks, they are spunky. But the Red Wings are the 'evil empire' of hockey. I ain't betting against an evil empire--would you? Red Wings in 6.

NBA playoffs foretold

East
Pistons-Magic (Pistons in 5)
Raptors-Nets (Nets in 7)
Cavs-Wizards (Cavs in 5)
Bulls-Heat (Bulls in 7)

West
Mavs-Warriors (Mavs in 6)
Suns-Lakers (Suns in 5)
Spurs-Nuggets (Spurs in 6)
Rockets-Jazz (Rockets in 7)

NBA MVP

1. Dirk Nowitzki (he played like a monster all year, he came to win)
2. Lebron James (the Cavs are absolutely nothing without him)
3. Kobe Bryant (he carried the Lakers even more than usual)
4. Chauncey Billups (Nash has Stoudamire, Marion & Diaw, Billups has Webber, McDyess & Rasheed; Nash is still great but Billups is underappreciated)
5. Gilbert Arenas (would've been higher if he hadn't gotten hurt)
6. Tim Duncan (steady Timmy, day after boring day he's winning games)

No curse here, man

ESPN is reporting that the cover boy of next year's John Madden Football will be Vince Young. Is his career doomed? Did he just drop 4 or 5 rounds in everybody's fantasy league draft? Barry Sanders, Eddie George, Ray Lewis, Daunte Culpepper, Marshall Faulk, Michael Vick, and Donovan McNabb all had injury-plagued sub-par years after being doused in John Madden's anointing oils (well, in fairness, Sanders retired and completely disappeared from the face of the earth), thus leading to the notion of a cover boy curse. This 'curse' is a bit dubious: uh, guys get hurt playing football all the time regardless of whether they've been on the cover of a video game or not.

And I say the curse ends here! I called it first! Young will be great next year and I say he even avoids injury. I'm not that high on the Titans next year (I'm 'shorting' Titans in market parlance), but I still think he has a productive year and carries them all the way to not making the playoffs. Wait a minute--would that still be considered a curse? You don't think the Titans are going to the playoffs, do you?

Thoughts on Major League Soccer

Watched a bit of the LA Galaxy (1-2) Dallas Fire last night. (Yeah, I know, I missed Man U-Roma the other day but I caught Galaxy-Fire. I guess my high school guidance counselor was right to impugn my 'priorities') The Galaxy suffer the same malady as Team USA: when Landon Donovan is double-marked, he disappears and the offense dries up with him. And Donovan is really surrounded by a bunch of stiffs out there. Every time a defender pushed up, seemed like it was just to rip a ball into the stands. They'd make these 70-yard runs and then not bother to make the next pass and, man, those guys can't shoot worth a shit!

LA controlled the ball well at times but Dallas was more effective around the goal, just more determined to score. And in the second half, Dallas was effective at packing in the D (their goalie is Shaka Hislop, sweet) and grinding the Galaxy out. Galaxy stuck in a goal after I went to bed but it must have been pretty late in the game (yeah, 86th minute by Findley who came off the bench). The Galaxy got 3 yellow cards, each of which was well deserved.

The game got MLS-style sloppy out there: they're athletic and speedy enough to get the pace of the game up pretty high but then they don't have the skill to control the ball. So (and this is a major problem for MLS) the most exciting parts of the action are the sloppiest. At its best MLS is high action fast-break soccer; at its worst, its high school soccer with bigger dudes.

I'm curious to see what kind of difference Mr. Posh Spice will make out there, but the next month until he arrives will be a painful time for Donovan. Once Beckham arrives to suck up some defense and deliver some service then I think Donovan really shines out. If they can make some magic then they should breeze through the MLS. And I'm guessing Donovan will be your MLS MVP this year.

3 English teams in the Semis

Man U v. AC Milan
Milan is loaded from top to bottom but Manchester has had pretty powerful luck so far. They're both great teams, I'll take Milan.

Liverpool v. Chelsea
Liverpool has probably gone further then they should have. I'll take Chelsea.

Mind blowing commentary, no?

Super quick NHL playoff analysis

East
Sabres-Islanders
Devils-Lightning
Thrashers-Rangers
Senators-Penguins

I like the Sabres, Devils, Thrashers, Penguins (big upset!).

West
Red Wings-Flames
Ducks-Wild
Canucks-Stars
Predators-Sharks

I like the Wings, Ducks, Stars, Sharks (2 upsets!). Check back in 2 weeks or so.

Early peek at the NBA Draft

#1 and #2 are pretty well set in stone. The rest are dependent on team order, the circumstances, maybe how they impress (or fail to) in the pre-draft camps, etc. Here's a quick thumbnail of my top 20 available in this year's draft. I don't know anything about foreign players (there's a Chinese guy that'll be top 10, for example, whose name I can't recall), I'm just focusing on the American college players. Note: I can't quite decide whether I'm picking who I think will be good or who I think others will find good, truthfully I go back and forth.

Oden (Ohio State)
Durant (Texas)
Hibbert (Georgetown)
Horford (Florida)
Thornton (Florida State)
Wright (Kansas)
Hawes (Washington)
Brewer (Florida)
Wright (North Carolina)
Noah (Florida)
Fazekas (Nevada)
Steele (Alabama)
Williams (Arizona)
Davis (LSU)
Gray (Pitt)
Law (Texas A&M)
Afflalo (UCLA)
Green (Florida)
Brooks (Oregon)
Tucker (Wisconsin)

I think Green (Georgetown) might be up there but I'm not sure if he's coming out. Davis (LSU) is underrated though I wonder about his desire to be a great player. Williams (Arizona) is a player I know absolutely nothing about, I'm just guessing he'll be intriguing to teams and talking heads. Gray (Pitt) may be a reach on my part but he's got good hands, good feet, could be another Eddy Cury or he could be another Todd Fuller, hard to tell. Noah (Florida) is perhaps the hardest to figure: his game is all college but if he ends up with the right team he could be a useful contributor; but then I think if he ends up with a crappy team and doesn't taste success right away, he could be out of the league before his first contract is up. There's a lot of interesting guys in there compared to last year's embarassment of a draft class.

To my mind, Oden and Hibbert are the only can't miss stars in this draft. But a lot of these guys can be successful hang-around guys (Durant, Wright, Law, Tucker, Brewer, Davis, Brooks, for example). I have no doubt that my mind will change daily for the next 2 months.

Tiger, Goose chasing Johnson

After Friday I had my eye on Ogilvy, Toms, Appleby, Vijay and, of course, Tiger. After Saturday I had my eye on Appleby, Goosen, Harrington, Kelly and, of course, Tiger. On the Sunday morning Sports Reporter they talked only of Tiger and Phil. Phil? He was dead by Sunday morning! I sat yelling at the TV, 'Shit, man, Goosen was the only guy that actually looked good on Saturday and he's got the same score as fading Phil!'

And for a while it looked like Goosen was gonna get it done. But he bogey-ed 12 and ended up one over on the last 10 holes, not good enough (if he'd started his charge on Friday he may well have buried the field). Harrington stuck an eagle on 13 and looked relevant for a few minutes but he gave it back soon enough. Tiger looked frustrated out there and he was not crisp at all. I think he was so flustered by the weather and the over-par finishes on the first 3 days that he felt like he was playing poor when in fact the jacket was his for the taking. Appleby is a bad weather player, which worked for him on blustery Friday and Saturday but Sunday afternoon looked sunny and lovely on my TV, his advantage shriveled and despite coming back from an early double bogey, he never looked up for the comeback. Sabbatini made a couple of amazing shots but I kept waiting for his double bogey. Kelly had a good looking eagle on 13 but couldn't cut into the lead; I like him though, he's got moxy. Vijay hung around but 3 bogeys on the back 9 put him pretty far down the leaderboard.

One guy I never at any point had my eye on was Zach Johnson. I didn't even think to pay attention to him until he stuck back-to-back birds on 13 and 14. A great victory for Johnson. He saw that the Masters was winnable this year and he kept his cool with Tiger charging behind him. I suspect the narrative will be the 'crazy cold weather Masters' where Johnson held off charging champions to sneak a major. Or will it be the coming-out of Zach Johnson (though he doesn't seem like the 'coming-out' type to me)? Might we be telling the tale of how Zach held off Tiger and Vijay and Retief and Phil and then went on to dominate the tour for years and years? Could be, we'll see. He's an ice-water-in-the-veins type and yet he's nerve-rackingly humble, could be a powerful combo for a golfer.

Who ya got?

ESPN will have the college hockey semi-finals on Thursday and the final on Saturday. I'm all about predictions--in fact I'm far more about predictions than I am about college hockey--and I say keep an eye on North Dakota. They stomped Michigan and squeaked past #1 Minnesota, I'd say they're on a roll and can hang with anyone.

Michigan State has already taken out traditional power Boston College and #2 Notre Dame. They've got another traditional power ahead of them in Maine, I say they've got it.

So this sets up a match between North Dakota (a traditional power) and Michigan State (another Big 10 squad) on Saturday. I'm going North Dakota. Book it.

NCAA Frozen Four Bracket

NL East foretold

(I did it all in the backwards order this morning, so read on to see my playoff picks, MVP's, etc)

Braves
I see no reason why the Braves will win this division. But until last year they kept winning despite what I thought was gonna happen. They've got many feisty youngsters and the pitching always manages to be good--and they're in a division of mediocrity. 94 wins.

Marlins
I see no reason why the Marlins will the NL wildcard. But why not? You don't have to pay a lot to make the playoffs. 89 wins.

Mets
Love the line-up, don't care for the pitching. Unlike the Yanks, who have more financial flexibility than they've had in a while, the Mets are leveraged like the runner-up in the country club 'ugly pants' contest. An injury here or there will sink them and New York loves a loser like LA loves a winner. 86 wins.

Phillies
Philly loves a loser even more than New York! Ryan Howard is the biggest, baddest thing that's come along since Eric Lindros and he'll be a bright spot. But the rest of the team will struggle all the way. 80 wins.

Nationals
I don't know anything about the Nationals except that they've got nobody I think much of. Bad scene, man. 62 wins.

NL Central forecast

Cards
This is the most confusing and disappointing division in baseball. The Cards are the most uninspiring champion since the Shaq-Kobe Lakers. But they've got Carpenter and Pujols so they should be able to hang for a while. 85 wins.

Reds
Looking over the roster I see some guys that look promising. Adam Dunn is looking monsterous, I'm thinking MVP. Arroyo, Harang, Lohse, Saarloos, and Milton are all primed for over-achieving-ness and if they can all just be okay, the Reds just might wrestle the division crown from the Cards. 83 wins.

Brewers
The Brewers are the chic pick these days and Ben Sheets did get off to a good start. But I don't know, man, Jeff Suppan is their big off-season pick-up? Not convinced. They're young and feisty but I doubt they pull it off. 82 wins.

Cubs
Oh, Cubbies! You achieve so little and yet we love you anyway. You are baseball's equivalent of Stephon Marbury. You are the cross between Eminem and Al Gore that deep down Americans really want to love. Picking up Soriano looks good on paper, but, as you Tribuners know all too well, nobody reads papers any more. 78 wins.

Astros
Roy Oswalt will be a Cy Young candidate all year long. Carlos Lee and Lance Berkman is nice combo. Too bad there's not much else going on down there. 72 wins.

Pirates
According to string theory there are multiple universes. In one of them, the Pittsburgh Pirates are as beloved as the Cubs. In the universe you and I live in, they're not even as beloved as the Pittsburgh Penguins. 67 wins.

NL West forecast

Dodgers
You think Juan Pierre's peak year is still ahead of him? I think so. If he hits, Furcal, Nomar and Kent behind him could be pretty good stuff. I think Schmidt was the best off-season pick up of the year, he'll anchor a good (but not great) pitching staff that should win the west easy enough. 94 wins.

D-backs
I like their pitching. Unit will relax and be better than average and while Livan Hernandez doesn't have a lot of wins left in his career, he can still eat innings like nobody's business, those two will serve them well. Webb is the real stud and they've got a slew of good young talent. Not this year though. 87 wins.

Padres
Petco Park is where home run hitters go to die and check out their outfield: Russell Branyan, Brian Giles, Termel Sledge, Jose Cruz Jr., Mike Cameron--what, no room for Rob Deer? That's the scariest collection of cast-offs since Harley Davidson and the Marlboro Man. 82 wins.

Giants
Hey fantasy-heads, keep an eye on Randy Winn. He's the one without a colostomy bag. Bonds breaks the record, Giants stink, local media calls Brain Sabean a genius anyway. 76 wins.

Rockies
It feels like they're moving in the right direction. Forget pitching, just try to out-slug people. Oh wait, they stopped playing that way years ago. 69 wins.

NL Playoffs and World Series

Dodgers-Marlins
The Marlins are just happy to be here. Dontrelle Willis wins the first game and everybody's thinking upset. Then the Dodgers win 3 straight and everybody's thinking the Dodgers will never lose again. Dodgers in 4.

Braves-Cards
This is switch from recent years: the Cards are the struggling veterans and the Braves and the scrappy youngsters. I like the Braves to just be better over the course of 5 games. Braves in 5.

Dodgers-Braves
The Braves will be worn out, the Dodgers will seem like destiny. Dodgers in 6.

Red Sox-Dodgers
The Red Sox will give it away late in game 7 in some unbelievably strange manner and self-doubt will creep back into the New England psyche forever (the Bruins move San Antonio, the Celtics convince Rick Pitino to 'finish what he started', Tom Brady never impregnates another super-model, Mitt Romney converts to Judaism, Ben Affleck and J-Lo decide to get back together, etc). Nomar rides around Dodger stadium on a horse, Derek Lowe makes lewd gestures, Grady Little drinks champagne from the skull of Babe Ruth--sounds pretty cool, don't it? Shit, I wish I liked the Dodgers! Dodgers in 7.

MVP:
AL, Manny Ramirez
NL, Adam Dunn

Cy Young:
AL, Jeremy Bonderman
NL, Jason Schmidt

The AL Playoffs foretold

Red Sox-A's
A's have been mojo-ed in the playoffs over the years and one of those years was to the Red Sox. (Incidentally, I saw one of them pointless cable TV list shows the other day that listed the top 50 sports blunders. They left out Tejada getting thrown out after Byrnes forgot to touch home plate--cost them the series!) I like the Sox bats to get to the A's arms. Red Sox in 4.

Indians-White Sox
The Indians will be spent after a season of just getting by. The Indians have been owned by the Sox for the last 5 years or so and now the Sox got Thome, its just taunts the Tribe. White Sox in 3.

Red Sox-White Sox
I like the Red Sox to have the superior arms and probably superior bats. Red Sox in 5.

National League forecasts on Tuesday.

AL West forecast

A's
I'm also an A's fan, I've watched them consistently through the Billy Beane years and I've been impressed. And they usually get it done in the regular season. And the Angels usually don't. So I'll take the A's. 91 wins.

Angels
I'm not impressed with their pitching and since they got Vlad Guerrero, they have consistently passed on picking up the new pieces over the years. That leaves them hungry enough to overachieve from time to time but usually not enough to keep up with the competition. 89 wins.

Rangers
I like the Rangers: they score a lot of runs and they're fun to watch. And while they are moving in the right direction I don't think they keep up with the A's either. 89 wins.

Mariners
Dude, I told you signing Adrian Beltre and Richie Sexson a coupla years ago wasn't gonna work. Oh well. I tried, man, I tried to help you out. 75 wins.

AL Central forecast

Indians
I'm a lifelong Indians fan so my gut says the Indians will flail wildly and finish with a view of the field (though still comfortably ahead of Kansas City). But I'm going for it! I'm getting on the bandwagon. I think the pitching will fall in line, the bullpen will be strong like 2 years ago and all the bats will step forward (Hafner, Sizemore did last year) rather than backward (Martinez, Peralta disappointed). If Marte, Garko and Michaels give them anything then the Indians should rake and challenge the Red Sox and Yanks for most runs scored. I haven’t felt this good about the Indians since…well, last year, when they got a bunch of hype, flailed wildly and finished with a view of the field though still comfortably ahead of Kansas City. But this year is different! I don't know why. 100 wins.

White Sox
Your wildcard team. I'm not buying that last year's slump was from losing Aaron Rowand. Podsednik, Dye, Taguchi, Thome, Crede, they'll all be back. They still have the attitude and I think that will carry them into the playoffs. Who does the pitching? I don't know but they'll figure it out. 95 wins.

Twins
The good ol' Twins, they have that holtistic vibe. They stay together and when they're good, they're really good and they play baseball that's fun to watch and they're all good guys. And they've got the best pitcher in baseball, Johan Santana, who's still very much in the Pedro-licious sweet spot of his career. Good D, good bullpen but I don't think they got enough pop in the lineup or (without Liriano) the starting rotation. 85 wins.

Tigers
I think Bonderman may be the best pitcher in the AL this year. But I fear Verlander and Zumaya both take a step back. And Sheffield will be fine if they're winning, but ugly if they're losing. I just think those arms will falter, then the bats will falter and Leyland's magic just won't get it done. 82 wins.

Royals
The Vanderbilt of the American League: they try hard and produce good players (Dye, Damon, Beltran was their outfield not that long ago) but they're just not gonna get it done any time soon. 75 wins.

AL East forecast

Red Sox
I'm sold on Dice-K: a 94MPH fastball, good change and a curve he puts all over the plate--and he doesn't speak English? Man, that is my kind of athlete! He's gonna be just fine. He'll start the all-star game, dead arm in August, so-so in September, I'm guessing money by the playoffs. And the Sox will score plenty o' runs this year. They all tanked last summer (did anyone notice they had a losing record against the American League last year?), they'll be hungry and Drew will fit in nicely. 100 wins.

Yankees
I'm not sure why everyone thinks the Yanks are so beatable. Mussina, Wang, Pettite, Pavano isn't the greatest first 4 in the league but it sure ain't the worst! They'll score plenty o' runs this year as well and when the bullpen falters the boss will cherrypick some overacheiving Royal or Devil Ray and problem solved. But I say they come up short of the wild card. 94 wins.

Orioles
Orioles seem to think they have a bright future. I'm guessing they hired the Redskins PR people…? 84 wins.

Blue Jays
Blue Jays have made nice improvements. Too bad they'll never win anything ever again with the Yanks and Sox both dedicated to being more wasteful than the Pentagon. Here's hoping they or the Orioles can catch a Wild Card sometime in the 21st century. Outlook: not good. Oh yeah, and their coach is a crackpot. 82 wins.

Devil Rays
The Devil Rays suck and should be destroyed. They reek of the excess of the bubble market of the '90s: money-grubbers expanded the sport and watered down the game and once the bubble bursts you're stuck with pet rocks and go-go boots and no fuckin' clue where your car keys are! I blame you, Tampa Bay! Oh yeah, and their owners are all crackpots. 72 wins.

Tonight's championship tilt

In my bracket I had Ohio State winning it all over Wisconsin (whom I had beating Florida in the final 8). My rationale for the Buckeyes was that this team of heralded freshmen would pull it together, overcome their stumbles and grow into champions along the way. Well, here they are in the Final, they've pulled it together and overcome some stumbles, but are they ready to be champions? They've already lost to these Gators once this year but Oden had only just begun and its not hard to imagine that the young squad got nerve-y in the presence of the defending champs. The Buckeyes beat North Carolina and matched up with Wisconsin a coupla times already this year, so they've played some competition.

I was skeptical of Florida because I felt like they skated most of the season. The SEC was deceptively weak (the mirror opposite of last year's football season where the SEC was deceptively strong), and their only really strong non-conference opponent, Ohio State, was such a blow-out it was indicative of nothing. Were they actually that much better than the Buckeyes? Has the weak SEC given Florida an inflated sense of self? So far they've only beaten two good but not great Pac-10 squads (Oregon, UCLA) and a scrappy, but wildly undermanned Butler. Ohio State will bring the small scrappy style of Butler with big men way better than UCLA. I think this Buckeye team will be the best team Florida plays all year.

Much has been made of Florida's attempt to be the first team to repeat since the Laettner-Hurley-Hill Duke team of the early '90's. But little mention has been made of Arkansas making back-to-back championships (losing the second time) or Kentucky's 3 straight Finals appearances (they won the first and the last but not the middle). So teams trying to win back-to-back have appeared and failed so far. I'm not sure what to think here. If the refs crack down on Horford and Noah (which as I recall was how Arkansas fell to UCLA back in the day), then Florida may find themselves in the foul trouble that doomed UCLA the other night. Ohio State, on the other hand, was able to overcome foul trouble to Oden and a poor shooting night by Lewis to get here. I think Ohio State plays better than they did on Saturday, I'm not sure Florida can play better.

Florida started as the 4 point fave, which has since grown to 5 today, with 140 as the point. I'm predicting an OT tonight, so I'll definitely take the over. And I'll take Florida to pull it out the win but they don't cover. Ohio State (+5) and the over (140), but Florida is your repeat champs. I have spoken so even though the game now is moot, try to enjoy it anyway.