Loyola-Chicago - Michigan (-5)
Loyola is a surprise but they shouldn't be, they've been damn good all year long and in this tourney they've picked up quality W's over Miami, Tennessee and Nevada. Can they beat Michigan? Yeah, why not? Michigan has been solid all year and ramped up their play to take the Big 10 tourney, with impressive W's over Texas A&M and Gonzaga last week. I like Loyola to keep it going, I think they're a complete team on a mission, they're the fan favorite and you gotta love 'em as an underdog. I'll take Loyola-Chicago to win.
Kansas - Villanova (-5)
Blueblood squads but neither of them are really are bringing their best. Kansas feels like the overachiever here, they're good when they pull it together but they haven't done that all that much this year. Villanova feels like they've steadily (though only marginally) declined since winning the titles 2 years ago, but they've still got the great coach and supporting cast. I feel like Villanova wins the game whether it's close or not. So the question is will Kansas cover the spread? I'll take Nova to win but the Jayhawks to cover.
Saturday, March 31, 2018
Thursday, March 29, 2018
2018 MLB Over/Unders
Opening day! Ahhhh, a good day.
NL East
Braves (74.5) (under)
Marlins (64.5) (over)
Mets (81) (over)
Nats (92.5) (over)
Phillies (75.5) (under)
The Nats are rolling, I like them to keep it going, for Bryce Harper to have a big year and for them to easily win the division. I think the Mets are going to be better than the oddsmakers think, that pitching is gonna be pretty great this year, if they can get any consistency out of their lineup, they'll be fine. The Phillies are turning it around but I don't see them busting out this year, I think they'll be comfortably in third place. I think the Braves will be even worse than we think but that the Marlins won't be (though I'll still take the Braves to finish ahead of the Marlins)/
NL Central
Brewers (84.5) (over)
Cards (85.5) (over)
Cubs (94.5) (over)
Pirates (73) (under)
Reds (73.5) (under)
The Cubs should be in the midst of a steady rising glide path but last year was a bit of a disappointment, I think this year will be better but still somehow underwhelming. The Brewers look pretty good to me, they should be in the running for the wild card. The Cards are never terrible but I feel like they'll struggle this year--which could be even more damaging for a team that always expects to be good. The Reds will have highs and lows, but firmly in fourth place. I think the Pirates are rebuilding or will be by the end of the year (all those years of getting smoked in the play-in game will seem like halcyon days).
NL West
D-Backs (85.5) (over)
Dodgers (96.5) (over)
Giants (81.5) (under)
Padres (69.5) (over)
Rockies (82) (under)
The Dodgers should roll through this division again, look for them to be active at the trade deadline--even if they don't need to be (someone like Miguel Cabrera, for example). I like the D-Backs to keep getting better. I gotta think the Rockies take a step back this year. Ditto the Giants. The Padres may well be vastly better than recent years and still finish firmly dead last.
Playoff predictions
D-Backs over Brewers
Nats over D-Backs, Dodgers over Cubs
Dodgers over Nats
AL East
Blue Jays (81) (under)
Orioles (73) (over)
Rays (77.5) (under)
Red Sox (91.5) (under)
Yankees (94.5) (over)
Kinda think the Yankees are gonna blow up this year, they overachieved last year but I think that was a taste of what's to come. The Red Sox will be fine but somehow it'll seem like a tragedy because they won't be better than second place. I think the Orioles will play hard and surge late. I expect the Blue Jays to flounder and sell of talent as they shift back into rebuilding mode. The Rays look kinda crappy to me but I wouldn't be surprised if they finish ahead of the Blue Jays.
AL Central
Indians (94.5) (over)
Royals (71.5) (over)
Tigers (68.5) (under)
Twins (82.5) (over)
White Sox (68) (over)
As an Indians fan it makes me nervous to say this but I think they should be better than last year, that historic winning streak covered some shakey pitching, inconvenient injuries and weird lineup shuffling; I like them to be more consistent and win more games this year. The Twins could blow up, they started great last year and finished well, if they could smooth out their game over the course of the year, they could be a pleasant surprise and challenge for a wild card. The Royals will be okay. I like the White Sox in the long run but not yet this year, I think KC will have the moxy to stay ahead of them. The Tigers are going in the wrong direction, I expect them to sell of whatever good players they have and bottom out badly this year.
AL West
A's (74.5) (over)
Angels (84.5) (over)
Astros (96.5) (over)
Mariners (81.5) (under)
Rangers (77.5) (under)
Oh yeah, the Astros are damn good, deep at every position, I expect them to keep rolling this year. I like the Angels to be better than you think this year, they've got a solid bedrock to build on and I think they can make moves at the deadline if they think they've got a shot. The Mariners will be okay. The A's finished well last year, I like them to keep that going. I think the Rangers are in for a long, crummy season.
Playoff predictions
Red Sox over Angels
Yankees over Astros, Indians over Red Sox
Yankees over Indians
I like the Yankees over the Dodgers in another classic. We'll see.
NL East
Braves (74.5) (under)
Marlins (64.5) (over)
Mets (81) (over)
Nats (92.5) (over)
Phillies (75.5) (under)
The Nats are rolling, I like them to keep it going, for Bryce Harper to have a big year and for them to easily win the division. I think the Mets are going to be better than the oddsmakers think, that pitching is gonna be pretty great this year, if they can get any consistency out of their lineup, they'll be fine. The Phillies are turning it around but I don't see them busting out this year, I think they'll be comfortably in third place. I think the Braves will be even worse than we think but that the Marlins won't be (though I'll still take the Braves to finish ahead of the Marlins)/
NL Central
Brewers (84.5) (over)
Cards (85.5) (over)
Cubs (94.5) (over)
Pirates (73) (under)
Reds (73.5) (under)
The Cubs should be in the midst of a steady rising glide path but last year was a bit of a disappointment, I think this year will be better but still somehow underwhelming. The Brewers look pretty good to me, they should be in the running for the wild card. The Cards are never terrible but I feel like they'll struggle this year--which could be even more damaging for a team that always expects to be good. The Reds will have highs and lows, but firmly in fourth place. I think the Pirates are rebuilding or will be by the end of the year (all those years of getting smoked in the play-in game will seem like halcyon days).
NL West
D-Backs (85.5) (over)
Dodgers (96.5) (over)
Giants (81.5) (under)
Padres (69.5) (over)
Rockies (82) (under)
The Dodgers should roll through this division again, look for them to be active at the trade deadline--even if they don't need to be (someone like Miguel Cabrera, for example). I like the D-Backs to keep getting better. I gotta think the Rockies take a step back this year. Ditto the Giants. The Padres may well be vastly better than recent years and still finish firmly dead last.
Playoff predictions
D-Backs over Brewers
Nats over D-Backs, Dodgers over Cubs
Dodgers over Nats
AL East
Blue Jays (81) (under)
Orioles (73) (over)
Rays (77.5) (under)
Red Sox (91.5) (under)
Yankees (94.5) (over)
Kinda think the Yankees are gonna blow up this year, they overachieved last year but I think that was a taste of what's to come. The Red Sox will be fine but somehow it'll seem like a tragedy because they won't be better than second place. I think the Orioles will play hard and surge late. I expect the Blue Jays to flounder and sell of talent as they shift back into rebuilding mode. The Rays look kinda crappy to me but I wouldn't be surprised if they finish ahead of the Blue Jays.
AL Central
Indians (94.5) (over)
Royals (71.5) (over)
Tigers (68.5) (under)
Twins (82.5) (over)
White Sox (68) (over)
As an Indians fan it makes me nervous to say this but I think they should be better than last year, that historic winning streak covered some shakey pitching, inconvenient injuries and weird lineup shuffling; I like them to be more consistent and win more games this year. The Twins could blow up, they started great last year and finished well, if they could smooth out their game over the course of the year, they could be a pleasant surprise and challenge for a wild card. The Royals will be okay. I like the White Sox in the long run but not yet this year, I think KC will have the moxy to stay ahead of them. The Tigers are going in the wrong direction, I expect them to sell of whatever good players they have and bottom out badly this year.
AL West
A's (74.5) (over)
Angels (84.5) (over)
Astros (96.5) (over)
Mariners (81.5) (under)
Rangers (77.5) (under)
Oh yeah, the Astros are damn good, deep at every position, I expect them to keep rolling this year. I like the Angels to be better than you think this year, they've got a solid bedrock to build on and I think they can make moves at the deadline if they think they've got a shot. The Mariners will be okay. The A's finished well last year, I like them to keep that going. I think the Rangers are in for a long, crummy season.
Playoff predictions
Red Sox over Angels
Yankees over Astros, Indians over Red Sox
Yankees over Indians
I like the Yankees over the Dodgers in another classic. We'll see.
Tuesday, March 20, 2018
2018 NCAA Sweet Sixteen
No reason to do this but I just felt like ranking the last 16 teams left in the tourney.
1) Duke
The best collection of talent over all and they're playing well right now, maybe the best they've looked all year. Definite contender for the title.
2) Villanova
Not sure they're actually this good but they've been so good lately, feels like a veteran team that can control a game at will. Love the coach, love the teamwork, they're still really good.
3) (All right, I'll be that guy) Kentucky
This is the best UK has played all season, hard to see where they can go because I haven't seen them be this good yet. They're a good rebounding team, generally a good FT% team, explosive offensively and from a variety of players, if they avoid dumb turnovers they'll be in every game.
4) Kansas
Not a vintage Kansas squad, but plenty talented and savvy enough to get tough wins. Good team. (Winner of Duke/Kansas wins it all?)
5) Purdue
Even with their injuries, they play their game every time out, not a lot of teams get to do that. The inside-out game looks good to me, they handle the ball well and they're monsters on the boards.
6) Loyola-Chicago
Good squad, vets, brotherly atmosphere, I think they are going to be a tough out. Virtually identical scores over Miami and Tennessee indicates they're playing how they want to play. They've got nothing to lose and they're everybody's 2nd favorite (at least) team right now. (I'm not a betting man but Loyola +2.5 feels like easy money to me)
7) Gonzaga
They just know how to win games, they play consistent ball night in, night out. They're not as good as last year but they can still get hot like everybody else.
8) West Virginia
As good as anyone in imposing their style on other teams. Sometimes it works, sometimes not, but if they shoot at a good percentage, their defense can carry them a long way.
9) Texas A&M
Pretty good team, they can mix it up and get by on some slop. If they knock down shots, they can beat anybody. Dangerous team.
10) Michigan
I watched them against Purdue in the B10 Champ and I thought Purdue was the better team for most of it; I thought Purdue going cold was why Michigan won. They're good but I don't see a Final Four team (although I did pick them in both brackets).
11) Florida State
Don't know how they beat Xavier, I just kept waiting for X to take over and they never did. Kudos to the Seminoles, they've got veteran presence, could make the difference. If they catch Gonzaga on a bad night, they can advance.
12) Texas Tech
Wasn't impressed with their W over Florida, kinda think they'll get thumped by the consistency of Purdue. These guys are probably the most like Purdue in the country, should be a good match.
13) Clemson
14) Kansas State
I haven't seen them at all this tourney, no real feel for them. UMBC must've looked like a big ol' beach ball to them compared to UVA. Maybe they're really good, I'm just not sure, no idea how they match up to UK, if they shoot well and stay out of foul trouble, they can hang with Kentucky.
15) Nevada
I kinda think Cincy lost more than these guys won but gotta give 'em credit for getting this far. I don't see enough playmaking or scoring to go any further. (That said, they are the one team left that has no fear of Loyola-Chicago)
16) Syracuse
No idea how these guys got this far, guess I shouldn't be surprised, Boeheim has become quite a maestro with so-so teams. They've still got that D that turns the lane to sludge and an offense with just enough starpower to get buckets, maybe they fustigate Duke (but I doubt it).
In the games, I'll take (without the lines):
Kentucky over Kansas St, Loyola-Chicago over Nevada
Gonzaga over Florida State, Texas A&M over Michigan
Villanova over West Virginia, Purdue over Texas Tech
Kansas over Clemson, Duke over Syracuse
A&M/Michigan, Villanova/West Virginia, Purdue/Texas Tech are the most compelling match-ups, the games I'm most looking forward to checking out, the games where I can see an upset.
1) Duke
The best collection of talent over all and they're playing well right now, maybe the best they've looked all year. Definite contender for the title.
2) Villanova
Not sure they're actually this good but they've been so good lately, feels like a veteran team that can control a game at will. Love the coach, love the teamwork, they're still really good.
3) (All right, I'll be that guy) Kentucky
This is the best UK has played all season, hard to see where they can go because I haven't seen them be this good yet. They're a good rebounding team, generally a good FT% team, explosive offensively and from a variety of players, if they avoid dumb turnovers they'll be in every game.
4) Kansas
Not a vintage Kansas squad, but plenty talented and savvy enough to get tough wins. Good team. (Winner of Duke/Kansas wins it all?)
5) Purdue
Even with their injuries, they play their game every time out, not a lot of teams get to do that. The inside-out game looks good to me, they handle the ball well and they're monsters on the boards.
6) Loyola-Chicago
Good squad, vets, brotherly atmosphere, I think they are going to be a tough out. Virtually identical scores over Miami and Tennessee indicates they're playing how they want to play. They've got nothing to lose and they're everybody's 2nd favorite (at least) team right now. (I'm not a betting man but Loyola +2.5 feels like easy money to me)
7) Gonzaga
They just know how to win games, they play consistent ball night in, night out. They're not as good as last year but they can still get hot like everybody else.
8) West Virginia
As good as anyone in imposing their style on other teams. Sometimes it works, sometimes not, but if they shoot at a good percentage, their defense can carry them a long way.
9) Texas A&M
Pretty good team, they can mix it up and get by on some slop. If they knock down shots, they can beat anybody. Dangerous team.
10) Michigan
I watched them against Purdue in the B10 Champ and I thought Purdue was the better team for most of it; I thought Purdue going cold was why Michigan won. They're good but I don't see a Final Four team (although I did pick them in both brackets).
11) Florida State
Don't know how they beat Xavier, I just kept waiting for X to take over and they never did. Kudos to the Seminoles, they've got veteran presence, could make the difference. If they catch Gonzaga on a bad night, they can advance.
12) Texas Tech
Wasn't impressed with their W over Florida, kinda think they'll get thumped by the consistency of Purdue. These guys are probably the most like Purdue in the country, should be a good match.
13) Clemson
Haven't seen them at all this tourney, don't know anything about them. I'm just assuming they're not as good as Kansas.
I haven't seen them at all this tourney, no real feel for them. UMBC must've looked like a big ol' beach ball to them compared to UVA. Maybe they're really good, I'm just not sure, no idea how they match up to UK, if they shoot well and stay out of foul trouble, they can hang with Kentucky.
15) Nevada
I kinda think Cincy lost more than these guys won but gotta give 'em credit for getting this far. I don't see enough playmaking or scoring to go any further. (That said, they are the one team left that has no fear of Loyola-Chicago)
16) Syracuse
No idea how these guys got this far, guess I shouldn't be surprised, Boeheim has become quite a maestro with so-so teams. They've still got that D that turns the lane to sludge and an offense with just enough starpower to get buckets, maybe they fustigate Duke (but I doubt it).
In the games, I'll take (without the lines):
Kentucky over Kansas St, Loyola-Chicago over Nevada
Gonzaga over Florida State, Texas A&M over Michigan
Villanova over West Virginia, Purdue over Texas Tech
Kansas over Clemson, Duke over Syracuse
A&M/Michigan, Villanova/West Virginia, Purdue/Texas Tech are the most compelling match-ups, the games I'm most looking forward to checking out, the games where I can see an upset.
Wednesday, March 7, 2018
2017-18 NBA Bric-a-Brac (Week 20)
Signings/Waivings
Sixers waived Trevor Booker to sign Ersan Ilyasova for the rest of the season. (Is this an upgrade? Ilyasova will shoot 3's but he's not very good at them...so....not sure I see the point of this; also, if you're keeping score at home, this is the conclusion of the Jahlil Okafor drafting, no?)
Lakers waive Corey Brewer, who was then signed by the Thunder for the rest of the year. (Brewer gives the Thunder a little scoring off the bench but he's not a replacement for Andre Roberson and probably conflicts with Melo, so not this doesn't strike me as a great fit (unless they convince Melo to move to China or something))
Wolves waive Shabazz Muhammad, who was then signed by the Bucks for the rest of the season. (Bazz has nice moments, think of him as Jeff Green 2.0, could be a nice low risk pickup for the Bucks)
Injuries
Josh Hart (Lakers) out indefinitely with a fractured left hand. (Hart had a nice season, averaging about 20MPG, not bad for a rookie; doesn't seem like he'll be back for the rest of this year, will we see him in Summer League?)
Danilo Gallinari (Clippers) out at least 2 weeks with fractured right hand. (Puts a dent in the Clippers playoff hopes but should be back by the end of the season)
Debuts
Up to 110 debuts this season with Xavier Rathan-Mayes (Grizzlies) and Jaylen Morris (Hawks) joining in.
Sixers waived Trevor Booker to sign Ersan Ilyasova for the rest of the season. (Is this an upgrade? Ilyasova will shoot 3's but he's not very good at them...so....not sure I see the point of this; also, if you're keeping score at home, this is the conclusion of the Jahlil Okafor drafting, no?)
Lakers waive Corey Brewer, who was then signed by the Thunder for the rest of the year. (Brewer gives the Thunder a little scoring off the bench but he's not a replacement for Andre Roberson and probably conflicts with Melo, so not this doesn't strike me as a great fit (unless they convince Melo to move to China or something))
Wolves waive Shabazz Muhammad, who was then signed by the Bucks for the rest of the season. (Bazz has nice moments, think of him as Jeff Green 2.0, could be a nice low risk pickup for the Bucks)
Injuries
Josh Hart (Lakers) out indefinitely with a fractured left hand. (Hart had a nice season, averaging about 20MPG, not bad for a rookie; doesn't seem like he'll be back for the rest of this year, will we see him in Summer League?)
Danilo Gallinari (Clippers) out at least 2 weeks with fractured right hand. (Puts a dent in the Clippers playoff hopes but should be back by the end of the season)
Debuts
Up to 110 debuts this season with Xavier Rathan-Mayes (Grizzlies) and Jaylen Morris (Hawks) joining in.
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