2017-18: 43-38 (5th in the East, lost in the 1st round)
Draft picks: 23,50
Signed for next season ($92.8m): Victor Oladipo, Thaddeus Young, Bojan Bogdanovic, Darren Collison, Al Jefferson, Cory Joseph, Lance Stephenson, Myles Turner, Domantis Sabonis, TJ Leaf, Joe Young, Alex Poythress, Ike Anigbogu
This summer's free agents: Glenn Robinson, Trevor Booker, Edmund Sumner, Ben Moore
I think Robinson will not be re-signed. Booker was a veteran pickup for the playoffs, I have no sense of whether they liked him enough to bring him back. Sumner and Moore are on 2-way contracts.
Worth noting that Thad Young ($13.7m) and Collison ($7.9m) are on player options; both played well enough to perhaps earn themselves a raise, so I could see them both opting out (on the other hand, there's not a lot of cap space out there and the Pacers did have a helluva year, so I can see them both coming back, too). And there are team options on Stephenson, Sabonis and Joe Young. Sabonis obviously earned his extension. I don't know who Joe Young is. As for Stephenson, I'd say he's a character in the Lebron drama: if Lebron leaves the Cavs, what would the Pacers need Stephenson for? But if Lebron is a Cav next year, having Stephenson on the roster might be an attractive option.
The team looks to be pretty well intact next year with only PF Young and PG Joseph possibly needing to be replaced. I can see them nabbing two foreign bigs, Dzanan Musa (Bosnia) and Goga Bitadze (Georgia) if they have time to develop some projects; or Trevon Duval (Duke) or Johntay Porter (Missouri) and maybe Jacob Evans (Cincinnati) or Jalen Hudson (Florida) if they think they need to get rotation players right away.
The Pacers got big minutes out of Young, they really would like him back but at $13.7m, I could see him being attractive to lesser teams with money to spend (veteran presence on the Suns? Or big money acquisition for the Nets?). Cory Joseph, too, is a top quality 2nd/3rd string PG, not a super sexy free agent but could be worth $8m+ to some other team out there. But the Pacers do have money to spend and would have a lot more if Young and Joseph (and Stephenson) move on--how about Enes Kanter, Iman Shumpert and Dante Exum as replacements? The core (Oladipo, Bogdanovic, Sabonis, Turner, Collison) is in place, this summer will tell how much they're able to maintain/upgrade the supporting cast (and are they gonna get anything out of Leaf or Anigbogu?).
Monday, April 30, 2018
2017-18 NBA Playoffs (2nd round)
East
Sixers-Celtics
The Sixers mercilessly battered the Heat in five games and looked like one of the best teams of the post-season; the Celtics kept Giannis at bay and never succumbed to the Bucks' strategy of slogging game play. The Celtics got great work from the Horford-Brown-Tatum line but if Brown is hurt (out for Game One at least), that's gonna be tough for them to make up. They got Marcus Smart back, they got Terry Rozier full-on minutes as the team leader and they do have the best coach in the sport in Brad Stevens, but I'm not seeing them outscoring the Sixers four out of seven times. I like the Sixers in 6: either Game One or Two in Boston, win both games back in Philly and then wrap it up back home in six. The Celtics got savvy, though, it would be a great win for them if they could halt the Philly youth.
Cavs-Raptors
Well, well, well. The Raptors winning Game Six in Washington was, I think, a big win for a team that needs all the big wins they can get; the Cavs going seven games against the Pacers, only surviving because Lebron did everything is, on the other hand, a worrying sign. Lebron has had played more minutes this year than ever before and logged more games in the 1st round than ever before and has fewer reliable teammates than ever before. If any single player can will their squad past the #1 team in the conference it is Lebron. And if there's any #1 seed that's just dying to give a series away it is the Raptors. I think the Raptors are more complete than the Pacers so if they just stay straight, they're on track to get to seven games with the Cavs. Who ya got in Game Seven? That's a tough one, I'll take the Raptors in 7. That said, if Lebron wants to win, it certainly could happen.
West
Pelicans 101-123 Warriors
Warriors played their most complete game in several weeks and the Pelicans looked shellshocked out there. If Iguodala shoots like that again and Looney and Livingston give good minutes off the bench, then the Pelicans could be in quick trouble. But I don't think it'll be that easy for the Warriors. I think the Pelicans came into this first game with a boxer's mentality: they wanted to take a few hits and see if they could roll with it. The answer is no. They need to came out swinging, scoring or at least controlling the offense. I think they can do that and if so, they can put the Warrior role players in the spin cycle and run up points at a more efficient clip. This series isn't over, I don't think Game One is representative of what the Pelicans can do, while I thought it was showed the Warriors at near perfection.
Jazz 96-110 Rockets
If the Jazz don't get Ricky Rubio back soon, then this series could be over. The Rockets control the ball, they are in control. My feeling was that the Rockets would struggle to score and the consistent Jazz would hang and then surpass them; that's not what happened in Game One. And without Rubio, it'll be tough for the Jazz to get their roll going. That said, I still have faith that the Rockets will give the Jazz the opportunity to hang around, which could be enough for the Jazz to get back into it. The Jazz have enough to beat the Rockets but they need Harden and Paul to falter.
Sixers-Celtics
The Sixers mercilessly battered the Heat in five games and looked like one of the best teams of the post-season; the Celtics kept Giannis at bay and never succumbed to the Bucks' strategy of slogging game play. The Celtics got great work from the Horford-Brown-Tatum line but if Brown is hurt (out for Game One at least), that's gonna be tough for them to make up. They got Marcus Smart back, they got Terry Rozier full-on minutes as the team leader and they do have the best coach in the sport in Brad Stevens, but I'm not seeing them outscoring the Sixers four out of seven times. I like the Sixers in 6: either Game One or Two in Boston, win both games back in Philly and then wrap it up back home in six. The Celtics got savvy, though, it would be a great win for them if they could halt the Philly youth.
Cavs-Raptors
Well, well, well. The Raptors winning Game Six in Washington was, I think, a big win for a team that needs all the big wins they can get; the Cavs going seven games against the Pacers, only surviving because Lebron did everything is, on the other hand, a worrying sign. Lebron has had played more minutes this year than ever before and logged more games in the 1st round than ever before and has fewer reliable teammates than ever before. If any single player can will their squad past the #1 team in the conference it is Lebron. And if there's any #1 seed that's just dying to give a series away it is the Raptors. I think the Raptors are more complete than the Pacers so if they just stay straight, they're on track to get to seven games with the Cavs. Who ya got in Game Seven? That's a tough one, I'll take the Raptors in 7. That said, if Lebron wants to win, it certainly could happen.
West
Pelicans 101-123 Warriors
Warriors played their most complete game in several weeks and the Pelicans looked shellshocked out there. If Iguodala shoots like that again and Looney and Livingston give good minutes off the bench, then the Pelicans could be in quick trouble. But I don't think it'll be that easy for the Warriors. I think the Pelicans came into this first game with a boxer's mentality: they wanted to take a few hits and see if they could roll with it. The answer is no. They need to came out swinging, scoring or at least controlling the offense. I think they can do that and if so, they can put the Warrior role players in the spin cycle and run up points at a more efficient clip. This series isn't over, I don't think Game One is representative of what the Pelicans can do, while I thought it was showed the Warriors at near perfection.
Jazz 96-110 Rockets
If the Jazz don't get Ricky Rubio back soon, then this series could be over. The Rockets control the ball, they are in control. My feeling was that the Rockets would struggle to score and the consistent Jazz would hang and then surpass them; that's not what happened in Game One. And without Rubio, it'll be tough for the Jazz to get their roll going. That said, I still have faith that the Rockets will give the Jazz the opportunity to hang around, which could be enough for the Jazz to get back into it. The Jazz have enough to beat the Rockets but they need Harden and Paul to falter.
Saturday, April 28, 2018
2018-19 Milwaukee Bucks
2017-18: 44-38 (7th in the East, lost in the 1st rd)
Draft picks: 17
Signed for next season ($105.5m): Giannis Antetokounpo, Eric Bledsoe, Khris Middleton, Tony Snell, John Henson, Matthew Dellavadova, Thon Maker, DJ Wilson, Tyler Zeller, Malcolm Brogdon, Sterling Brown
This summer's free agents: Jabari Parker, Jason Terry, Marshall Plumlee, Shabazz Muhammad, Xavier Munford
Could be a huge mistake but I think they're going to let Parker move on. Terry is rumored to be retiring, Plumlee and Munford are on 2-way contracts. Muhammad (the poor man's Jeff Green) probably won't be back (but I wouldn't be surprised if the Bucks sign him).
Their only draft pick is #17. The Bucks have been known to gamble (took Antetokounpo when no one was sure what he was and Thon Maker at #10), so I wouldn't be surprised if they nabbed high schooler Anfernee Simmons or a foreigner like Dzanan Musa (Bosnia).
Personally I kinda liked what I saw in Parker but reports are that he resented the presence of the Freak and rather than going with it, he sulked. Also with his injury history it feels like the Bucks are going to let him walk. That leaves a lineup of PG Brogdon, SG Bledsoe, SF Middleton, PF Antetokounpo, C Henson with Dellavadova, Snell, Zeller, #17 and Maker off the bench. They've got some room for a free agent but do they go for scoring or a down-low presence that can free Antetokounpo for more offense? I can see them going after Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (good veteran on both sides of the ball, should be a reasonably priced addition) or Ed Davis (as a down low complement for Antetokounpo). I don't think they could get both but either one of those would work for them I think. Also, is Parker a sign & trade possibility? Cap space is tight out there, in order to bring Parker in, a lot of teams would have to send something out. So is Parker still a trade chip for them even if he doesn't come back?
Draft picks: 17
Signed for next season ($105.5m): Giannis Antetokounpo, Eric Bledsoe, Khris Middleton, Tony Snell, John Henson, Matthew Dellavadova, Thon Maker, DJ Wilson, Tyler Zeller, Malcolm Brogdon, Sterling Brown
This summer's free agents: Jabari Parker, Jason Terry, Marshall Plumlee, Shabazz Muhammad, Xavier Munford
Could be a huge mistake but I think they're going to let Parker move on. Terry is rumored to be retiring, Plumlee and Munford are on 2-way contracts. Muhammad (the poor man's Jeff Green) probably won't be back (but I wouldn't be surprised if the Bucks sign him).
Their only draft pick is #17. The Bucks have been known to gamble (took Antetokounpo when no one was sure what he was and Thon Maker at #10), so I wouldn't be surprised if they nabbed high schooler Anfernee Simmons or a foreigner like Dzanan Musa (Bosnia).
Personally I kinda liked what I saw in Parker but reports are that he resented the presence of the Freak and rather than going with it, he sulked. Also with his injury history it feels like the Bucks are going to let him walk. That leaves a lineup of PG Brogdon, SG Bledsoe, SF Middleton, PF Antetokounpo, C Henson with Dellavadova, Snell, Zeller, #17 and Maker off the bench. They've got some room for a free agent but do they go for scoring or a down-low presence that can free Antetokounpo for more offense? I can see them going after Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (good veteran on both sides of the ball, should be a reasonably priced addition) or Ed Davis (as a down low complement for Antetokounpo). I don't think they could get both but either one of those would work for them I think. Also, is Parker a sign & trade possibility? Cap space is tight out there, in order to bring Parker in, a lot of teams would have to send something out. So is Parker still a trade chip for them even if he doesn't come back?
2018-19 Washington Wizards
2017-18: 43-39 (8th in the East, lost in the 1st rd)
Draft picks: 15,44
Signed for next season ($124.7m): Otto Porter, Bradley Beal, John Wall, Ian Mahinmi, Marcin Gortat, Markieff Morris, Jason Smith, Jodie Meeks, Kelly Oubre, Tomas Satoransky
This summer's free agents: Tim Frazier, Mike Scott, Chris McCullough, Ramon Sessions, Ty Lawson, Devin Robinson
I was pretty impressed with Mike Scott in the post-season, not sure if that's enough to re-sign him. I kinda like Frazier as a backup PG but with Wall and Satoransky taking so much of the playing time, the Wizards will likely look to spend less on a 3rd string PG. Lawson, too, will probably be playing somewhere else next year (somewhere like China). McCullough just never caught on, I don't expect he'll be back in the league again. Robinson is on a 2-way contract.
The draft will likely yield some depth at the Guard spot for the Wizards. #15 looks like either Lonnie Walker (Miami) or Khyri Thomas (Creighton) but maybe Miles Bridges (Michigan St) or Kevin Knox (Kentucky) falls to there. The 2nd rounder could bring in Mo Wagner (Michigan) if they're looking for some size but otherwise guards seem to be the best bet there, too: Devonte Graham (Kansas), Keenan Evans (Texas Tech), Bruce Brown (Miami) seem to be in the mix. The Wizards are just looking for bench players in the draft, just looking to thicken the rotation.
Smith ($5.4m) and Meeks ($3.4m) each have player options but I don't expect either of them to leave. So next year's squad will probably be: PG Wall, SG Beal, SF Porter, PF Morris, C Gortat with Satoransky, Oubre, Smith, #15 and Mahinmi off the bench. Oh man, if they could move on from Mahinmi that would be ideal but I don't see that happening. So they have no cap space, no room to make moves, frankly I don't even see how they fill out the roster. So next year's team should look a lot like this year's team.
Draft picks: 15,44
Signed for next season ($124.7m): Otto Porter, Bradley Beal, John Wall, Ian Mahinmi, Marcin Gortat, Markieff Morris, Jason Smith, Jodie Meeks, Kelly Oubre, Tomas Satoransky
This summer's free agents: Tim Frazier, Mike Scott, Chris McCullough, Ramon Sessions, Ty Lawson, Devin Robinson
I was pretty impressed with Mike Scott in the post-season, not sure if that's enough to re-sign him. I kinda like Frazier as a backup PG but with Wall and Satoransky taking so much of the playing time, the Wizards will likely look to spend less on a 3rd string PG. Lawson, too, will probably be playing somewhere else next year (somewhere like China). McCullough just never caught on, I don't expect he'll be back in the league again. Robinson is on a 2-way contract.
The draft will likely yield some depth at the Guard spot for the Wizards. #15 looks like either Lonnie Walker (Miami) or Khyri Thomas (Creighton) but maybe Miles Bridges (Michigan St) or Kevin Knox (Kentucky) falls to there. The 2nd rounder could bring in Mo Wagner (Michigan) if they're looking for some size but otherwise guards seem to be the best bet there, too: Devonte Graham (Kansas), Keenan Evans (Texas Tech), Bruce Brown (Miami) seem to be in the mix. The Wizards are just looking for bench players in the draft, just looking to thicken the rotation.
Smith ($5.4m) and Meeks ($3.4m) each have player options but I don't expect either of them to leave. So next year's squad will probably be: PG Wall, SG Beal, SF Porter, PF Morris, C Gortat with Satoransky, Oubre, Smith, #15 and Mahinmi off the bench. Oh man, if they could move on from Mahinmi that would be ideal but I don't see that happening. So they have no cap space, no room to make moves, frankly I don't even see how they fill out the roster. So next year's team should look a lot like this year's team.
2018-19 Oklahoma City Thunder
2017-18: 48-34 (5th in the West, lost in the 1st rd)
Draft picks: 53,57
Signed for next season ($137.5m): Russell Westbrook, Carmelo Anthony, Steven Adams, Paul George, Andre Roberson, Alex Abrines, Patrick Patterson, Kyle Singler, Terrence Ferguson, Dakari Johnson
This summer's free agents: Ray Felton, Nick Collison, Jerami Grant, Josh Huestis, Corey Brewer, Daniel Hamilton, PJ Dozier
I suspect it is time to bid adieu to Collison (I can see him getting kicked upstairs). I'd re-sign Grant and Huestis (though I don't see where the money comes from). Hamilton and Dozier are on 2-way contracts. Not sure about Felton, his contract was reasonable last year though they could probably do better in that price range.
First things first: George ($20.7m) has a player option and Carmelo has an early termination option ($27.9m). Sure seems to me that George could get a bigger paycheck on a better team, so I'd be kinda shocked if he returns. Melo, on the other hand, ain't getting no $28m from anyone else, so I expect he will be back. (I hated the Melo trade when it happened, fully expect to still hate it next year) Losing George will save them $20 million but that's not a lot (though if they could beg Melo to opt out, too, then they could truly remake the team).
Gotta be honest: #53 and #57 are not sexy draft picks. If they could somehow sneak the Martin (Nevada) twins, that'd be their best move. Otherwise they should draft Euro prospects since they don't have money to spend on draft picks anyway.
Right now: well, even without PG they'll still have a decent roster around Westbrook and perhaps Melo has a renaissance. I dunno, it's hard to see them finishing as high as 5th in the West next year though. They become dangerous playoff underdog instead of odds-on fave. Next summer they'll have more flexibility, can they lure someone in then?
Draft picks: 53,57
Signed for next season ($137.5m): Russell Westbrook, Carmelo Anthony, Steven Adams, Paul George, Andre Roberson, Alex Abrines, Patrick Patterson, Kyle Singler, Terrence Ferguson, Dakari Johnson
This summer's free agents: Ray Felton, Nick Collison, Jerami Grant, Josh Huestis, Corey Brewer, Daniel Hamilton, PJ Dozier
I suspect it is time to bid adieu to Collison (I can see him getting kicked upstairs). I'd re-sign Grant and Huestis (though I don't see where the money comes from). Hamilton and Dozier are on 2-way contracts. Not sure about Felton, his contract was reasonable last year though they could probably do better in that price range.
First things first: George ($20.7m) has a player option and Carmelo has an early termination option ($27.9m). Sure seems to me that George could get a bigger paycheck on a better team, so I'd be kinda shocked if he returns. Melo, on the other hand, ain't getting no $28m from anyone else, so I expect he will be back. (I hated the Melo trade when it happened, fully expect to still hate it next year) Losing George will save them $20 million but that's not a lot (though if they could beg Melo to opt out, too, then they could truly remake the team).
Gotta be honest: #53 and #57 are not sexy draft picks. If they could somehow sneak the Martin (Nevada) twins, that'd be their best move. Otherwise they should draft Euro prospects since they don't have money to spend on draft picks anyway.
Right now: well, even without PG they'll still have a decent roster around Westbrook and perhaps Melo has a renaissance. I dunno, it's hard to see them finishing as high as 5th in the West next year though. They become dangerous playoff underdog instead of odds-on fave. Next summer they'll have more flexibility, can they lure someone in then?
2018-19 San Antonio Spurs
2017-18: 47-35 (7th in the West, lost in the 1st rd)
Draft picks: 18,49
Signed for next season ($99.4m): Lamarcus Aldridge, Kawhi Leonard, Pau Gasol, Patty Mills, Danny Green, Rudy Gay, Manu Ginobli, Derrick White, Joffrey Lauvergne, Dejounte Murray, Brandon Paul
This summer's free agents: Tony Parker, Kyle Anderson, Bryn Forbes, Davis Bertans, Matt Costello, Darrun Hilliard,
I think it's time for Parker to move on, but I doubt he gets the kind of money he wants, so perhaps he could be in San Antonio's price range. Anderson and Bertans are probably still in San Antonio's reach, too. I think they can do better than Forbes. Costello and Hilliard are on 2-way contracts.
Okay, elephant in the room: they've got to figure out what to do with Kawhi. Do they trade him? Sign him to an extension? Or let him play put the final year of his deal? The answer to that sets up the rest of the off-season. I'd vote to re-sign him, I would strenuously vote against playing out his deal and I could be talked into a trade but I'd likely vote against that, too. Unless he is dead set on never playing basketball again, I'd re-sign him no matter what it costs (which I think is what they'll do).
Green, Gay and Lauvergne are on player options. I can see Danny Green opting out (how about him in a Pelicans uniform?) and I'm not sure Gay gets much more money but I can see him heading to a new environment (how about coming off the bench for the new-look Lakers?). Lauvergne seems safe for San Antonio. If Green and Gay bolt they'll have money to spend and holes to fill. (Hmmm...does that leave them Lebron money...?)
I've seen a mock draft that has them taking Zhaire Smith (Texas Tech) at #18, seems like a good fit for them. The Spurs are the greatest at finding foreign talent late in the draft, I assume they'll make the most of #49 (perhaps even swapping it to Philly for #56 and #60).
Right now: until they figure out Kawhi and the player options, it's pretty impossible to know what they're gonna do. My guess is they came back with Kawhi but without Green (Gay's move probably depends on whether Kawhi comes back). After that, who knows? (Seriously though: Lebron and Kawhi with Aldridge...it would light a fire under the Rockets and Warriors and new-look Lakers, no?)
Draft picks: 18,49
Signed for next season ($99.4m): Lamarcus Aldridge, Kawhi Leonard, Pau Gasol, Patty Mills, Danny Green, Rudy Gay, Manu Ginobli, Derrick White, Joffrey Lauvergne, Dejounte Murray, Brandon Paul
This summer's free agents: Tony Parker, Kyle Anderson, Bryn Forbes, Davis Bertans, Matt Costello, Darrun Hilliard,
I think it's time for Parker to move on, but I doubt he gets the kind of money he wants, so perhaps he could be in San Antonio's price range. Anderson and Bertans are probably still in San Antonio's reach, too. I think they can do better than Forbes. Costello and Hilliard are on 2-way contracts.
Okay, elephant in the room: they've got to figure out what to do with Kawhi. Do they trade him? Sign him to an extension? Or let him play put the final year of his deal? The answer to that sets up the rest of the off-season. I'd vote to re-sign him, I would strenuously vote against playing out his deal and I could be talked into a trade but I'd likely vote against that, too. Unless he is dead set on never playing basketball again, I'd re-sign him no matter what it costs (which I think is what they'll do).
Green, Gay and Lauvergne are on player options. I can see Danny Green opting out (how about him in a Pelicans uniform?) and I'm not sure Gay gets much more money but I can see him heading to a new environment (how about coming off the bench for the new-look Lakers?). Lauvergne seems safe for San Antonio. If Green and Gay bolt they'll have money to spend and holes to fill. (Hmmm...does that leave them Lebron money...?)
I've seen a mock draft that has them taking Zhaire Smith (Texas Tech) at #18, seems like a good fit for them. The Spurs are the greatest at finding foreign talent late in the draft, I assume they'll make the most of #49 (perhaps even swapping it to Philly for #56 and #60).
Right now: until they figure out Kawhi and the player options, it's pretty impossible to know what they're gonna do. My guess is they came back with Kawhi but without Green (Gay's move probably depends on whether Kawhi comes back). After that, who knows? (Seriously though: Lebron and Kawhi with Aldridge...it would light a fire under the Rockets and Warriors and new-look Lakers, no?)
2018-19 Minnesota Timberwolves
2017-18: 47-35 (8th in the West, lost in the 1st rd)
Draft picks: 20,48
Signed for next season ($121.4m): Andrew Wiggins, Jimmy Butler, Jeff Teague, Gorgui Dieng, Taj Gibson, Karl Anthony-Towns, Cole Aldritch, Jamal Crawford, Justin Patton, Tyus Jones
This summer's free agents: Nemanja Bjelica, Aaron Brooks, Marcus Georges-Hunt, Anthony Brown, Amile Jefferson, Derrick Rose
Personally I love Bjelica (but we all know he'll look better in a Spurs uni), I didn't even know they had Brooks, I don't know who Georges-Hunt is, and Brown and Jefferson are on 2-way contracts. Who knows where D-Rose goes from here, wouldn't be surprised to see him back with his mentor (and enabler) Coach Thibs, but he was active in the post-season so...Knicks, right? (They already had him. Yeah....so?)
Seeing as they got virtually nothing (4 minutes in 1 game played) out of last year's 1st round draft pick, Justin Patton, and Thibs pretty much just likes to run his main rotation guys into the ground, does it even matter who they draft? I can see them going for Grayson Allen (Duke) at #20, then perhaps Hamadou Diallo (Kentucky) in the 2nd round. On the other other hand I could see them drafting foreigners with both picks, since the draftees probably won't play, why not just wait another year on them?
Next year's squad will likely be: PG Teague, SG Butler, SF Wiggins, PF Gibson, C Towns with Crawford, Jones, Dieng, #20, (and Rose?) off the bench. 3 years ago this team was brimming with optimism, they were a fun team, a growing team. Then they brought in Coach Thibs and now they're the 2014 Chicago Bulls: old, monotonous, dull. *sigh* How does this team get better? They don't have money for free agents so the engine for growth is improving the players that are already there: Wiggins has not grown, Towns' game makes no sense at all, Dieng is an afterthought, Bjelica is likely on his way out, and Justin Patton is...I don't know what he is. But Thibs has shown no aptitude for doing that, so I am not optimistic. What they were this year is likely what they'll be next year, heaven help them if the Denver Nuggets get slightly better.
Draft picks: 20,48
Signed for next season ($121.4m): Andrew Wiggins, Jimmy Butler, Jeff Teague, Gorgui Dieng, Taj Gibson, Karl Anthony-Towns, Cole Aldritch, Jamal Crawford, Justin Patton, Tyus Jones
This summer's free agents: Nemanja Bjelica, Aaron Brooks, Marcus Georges-Hunt, Anthony Brown, Amile Jefferson, Derrick Rose
Personally I love Bjelica (but we all know he'll look better in a Spurs uni), I didn't even know they had Brooks, I don't know who Georges-Hunt is, and Brown and Jefferson are on 2-way contracts. Who knows where D-Rose goes from here, wouldn't be surprised to see him back with his mentor (and enabler) Coach Thibs, but he was active in the post-season so...Knicks, right? (They already had him. Yeah....so?)
Seeing as they got virtually nothing (4 minutes in 1 game played) out of last year's 1st round draft pick, Justin Patton, and Thibs pretty much just likes to run his main rotation guys into the ground, does it even matter who they draft? I can see them going for Grayson Allen (Duke) at #20, then perhaps Hamadou Diallo (Kentucky) in the 2nd round. On the other other hand I could see them drafting foreigners with both picks, since the draftees probably won't play, why not just wait another year on them?
Next year's squad will likely be: PG Teague, SG Butler, SF Wiggins, PF Gibson, C Towns with Crawford, Jones, Dieng, #20, (and Rose?) off the bench. 3 years ago this team was brimming with optimism, they were a fun team, a growing team. Then they brought in Coach Thibs and now they're the 2014 Chicago Bulls: old, monotonous, dull. *sigh* How does this team get better? They don't have money for free agents so the engine for growth is improving the players that are already there: Wiggins has not grown, Towns' game makes no sense at all, Dieng is an afterthought, Bjelica is likely on his way out, and Justin Patton is...I don't know what he is. But Thibs has shown no aptitude for doing that, so I am not optimistic. What they were this year is likely what they'll be next year, heaven help them if the Denver Nuggets get slightly better.
2018-19 Portland Trail Blazers
2017-18: 49-33 (3rd in the West, lost in the 1st rd)
Draft picks: 24,54
Signed for next season ($112m): Damien Lillard, CJ McCollum, Evan Turner, Moe Harkless, Meyers Leonard, Al-Farouk Aminu, Zach Collins, Caleb Swanigan, Jake Layman
This summer's free agents: Ed Davis, Jusuf Nurkic, Shabazz Napier, Pat Connaughton, Wade Baldwin, CJ Wilcox, Georgias Papagiannis
Right now they are right on the edge of the salary cap, so even though I'm guessing they'd love to bring back Davis, Nurkic, Napier and probably even Connaughton, I'm not sure they've got the money to do it. Wilcox is on a 2-way contract. Baldwin and Papagiannis may be available for 2-way contracts, too (summer league for those two?).
After getting mowed down by the suddenly mighty Pelicans, the buzz is that they may fire Coach Terry Stotts. Personally I think that'd be a mistake. He's been through thick and thin with this squad, he knows these players, knows the environment, considering they're likely to be rolling into next season with roughly the same squad, not sure I see the upside of starting with a new coach. Hey, man, the Pelicans were fucking legit in that series, you wish the Blazers would be better but its not like they gacked it up to a sub-standard team. This is gonna be a weird summer but I think moving on from Stotts right now would not be a good move.
In the draft #25 could net them Trevon Duval (Duke), Jalen Brunson (Villanova) or Landry Shamet (Wichita State), each of those guys looks to give them another combo guard that might make losing Napier and Connaughton a little easier to deal with. Or if they want some size maybe Chimezie Metu (USC), Omari Spellman (Villanova) or Brandon McCoy (UNLV) would be there. At #54 Cody Martin (Nevada) might be another combo guard for them to try out.
Pointless trade idea (warning: this one ain't that great): Evan Turner straight up for Tristan Thompson. Their contracts are virtually identical, so this is would be swapping a ball handler (which the Cavs could use if Lebron moves on) for a big guy (which the Blazers could use if they can't bring back Davis or Nurkic). The Cavs clearly have given up on Tristan and while he's not exactly the best big man ever, a change of scenery might do him so good. This doesn't really do anything for their cap situation (Tristan is slightly cheaper for each of the next two years) but it does shift their focus for off-season acquisitions and could make the plethora of combo guards in the draft a little more enticing.
Draft picks: 24,54
Signed for next season ($112m): Damien Lillard, CJ McCollum, Evan Turner, Moe Harkless, Meyers Leonard, Al-Farouk Aminu, Zach Collins, Caleb Swanigan, Jake Layman
This summer's free agents: Ed Davis, Jusuf Nurkic, Shabazz Napier, Pat Connaughton, Wade Baldwin, CJ Wilcox, Georgias Papagiannis
Right now they are right on the edge of the salary cap, so even though I'm guessing they'd love to bring back Davis, Nurkic, Napier and probably even Connaughton, I'm not sure they've got the money to do it. Wilcox is on a 2-way contract. Baldwin and Papagiannis may be available for 2-way contracts, too (summer league for those two?).
After getting mowed down by the suddenly mighty Pelicans, the buzz is that they may fire Coach Terry Stotts. Personally I think that'd be a mistake. He's been through thick and thin with this squad, he knows these players, knows the environment, considering they're likely to be rolling into next season with roughly the same squad, not sure I see the upside of starting with a new coach. Hey, man, the Pelicans were fucking legit in that series, you wish the Blazers would be better but its not like they gacked it up to a sub-standard team. This is gonna be a weird summer but I think moving on from Stotts right now would not be a good move.
In the draft #25 could net them Trevon Duval (Duke), Jalen Brunson (Villanova) or Landry Shamet (Wichita State), each of those guys looks to give them another combo guard that might make losing Napier and Connaughton a little easier to deal with. Or if they want some size maybe Chimezie Metu (USC), Omari Spellman (Villanova) or Brandon McCoy (UNLV) would be there. At #54 Cody Martin (Nevada) might be another combo guard for them to try out.
Pointless trade idea (warning: this one ain't that great): Evan Turner straight up for Tristan Thompson. Their contracts are virtually identical, so this is would be swapping a ball handler (which the Cavs could use if Lebron moves on) for a big guy (which the Blazers could use if they can't bring back Davis or Nurkic). The Cavs clearly have given up on Tristan and while he's not exactly the best big man ever, a change of scenery might do him so good. This doesn't really do anything for their cap situation (Tristan is slightly cheaper for each of the next two years) but it does shift their focus for off-season acquisitions and could make the plethora of combo guards in the draft a little more enticing.
2018-19 Miami Heat
2017-18: 44-38 (6th in the East, lost 1st rd)
Draft picks: (none)
Signed for next season ($147.3m): Hassan Whiteside, Tyler Johnson, Goran Dragic, James Johnson, Dion Waiters, Kelly Olynyk, Josh Richardson, Justice Winslow, Bam Adebayo, Jordan Mickey, Rodney McGruder
This summer's free agents: Wayne Ellington, Udonis Haslem, Dwyane Wade, Luke Babbit, Derek Walton, Derrick Jones
I think the plan is to bring back Ellington and Wade (although I have no idea where the money comes from to make either of those deals happen). Surely they're not bringing back Haslem, right? Good god, they should've made him an asst coach 5 years ago! Walton and Jones are on 2-way contracts.
They don't have any of the 60 picks in this draft (but still confident they can get Baker Mayfield).
After getting thoroughly worked by the upstart Sixers, they'll need to work some accounting magic to field a workable team for next year. Right now their lineup looks something like: PG Dragic, SG Waiters, SF Richardson, PF James Johnson, C Whiteside with Tyler Johnson, Winslow, Adebayo, Olynyk and McGruder off the bench. If they are able to bring back Wade and Ellington that gives them the same team that finished 6th in the East and had no prayer against the Sixers, so unless Pat Riley has a rich uncle that drops dead this summer, it looks like there are no upgrades on the way.
Pointless trade idea: Winslow, Adebayo, Olynyk for Demarcus Cousins. If Cousins doesn't recover from his Achilles' injury (that's a scary injury for any athlete but especially one of Cousins' size), then that would not work out in the Heat's favor. But they've always coveted Boogie and if he comes back and plays like he did the first half of this year, it would give the Heat a whole new look and feel (though it sacrifices all the youth they have). That would give them a lineup of Dragic, Waiters, Richardson, Cousins and Whiteside (and no bench at all). Does that sound like an upgrade? Ehh, maybe. (And how about the Pelicans rolling into next year with Rondo, Holiday, Mirotic, Adebayo/Olynyk, Davis with Moore, Miller and Winslow off the bench while saving them money....hmmmm, I kinda like that) The downside of this trade is...uh, I don't think its possible. With the Heat already over the cap, adding salary is not a thing they could do. I think they'll have to move Whiteside or Tyler Johnson (nice player but, oof!, that contract) to bring back Wade (how's D-Wade gonna feel about being left out after watching Udonis Haslem score all those years of free money?).
Whatever they do they'll still have a good coach, a reliable rim protector, an off-kilter PG and....well, the weather's nice. Riley is always capable of wheeling and/or dealing so don't write them off yet. But, man, with no draft picks and no cap flexibility we will see the depth of Riley's magic.
Draft picks: (none)
Signed for next season ($147.3m): Hassan Whiteside, Tyler Johnson, Goran Dragic, James Johnson, Dion Waiters, Kelly Olynyk, Josh Richardson, Justice Winslow, Bam Adebayo, Jordan Mickey, Rodney McGruder
This summer's free agents: Wayne Ellington, Udonis Haslem, Dwyane Wade, Luke Babbit, Derek Walton, Derrick Jones
I think the plan is to bring back Ellington and Wade (although I have no idea where the money comes from to make either of those deals happen). Surely they're not bringing back Haslem, right? Good god, they should've made him an asst coach 5 years ago! Walton and Jones are on 2-way contracts.
They don't have any of the 60 picks in this draft (but still confident they can get Baker Mayfield).
After getting thoroughly worked by the upstart Sixers, they'll need to work some accounting magic to field a workable team for next year. Right now their lineup looks something like: PG Dragic, SG Waiters, SF Richardson, PF James Johnson, C Whiteside with Tyler Johnson, Winslow, Adebayo, Olynyk and McGruder off the bench. If they are able to bring back Wade and Ellington that gives them the same team that finished 6th in the East and had no prayer against the Sixers, so unless Pat Riley has a rich uncle that drops dead this summer, it looks like there are no upgrades on the way.
Pointless trade idea: Winslow, Adebayo, Olynyk for Demarcus Cousins. If Cousins doesn't recover from his Achilles' injury (that's a scary injury for any athlete but especially one of Cousins' size), then that would not work out in the Heat's favor. But they've always coveted Boogie and if he comes back and plays like he did the first half of this year, it would give the Heat a whole new look and feel (though it sacrifices all the youth they have). That would give them a lineup of Dragic, Waiters, Richardson, Cousins and Whiteside (and no bench at all). Does that sound like an upgrade? Ehh, maybe. (And how about the Pelicans rolling into next year with Rondo, Holiday, Mirotic, Adebayo/Olynyk, Davis with Moore, Miller and Winslow off the bench while saving them money....hmmmm, I kinda like that) The downside of this trade is...uh, I don't think its possible. With the Heat already over the cap, adding salary is not a thing they could do. I think they'll have to move Whiteside or Tyler Johnson (nice player but, oof!, that contract) to bring back Wade (how's D-Wade gonna feel about being left out after watching Udonis Haslem score all those years of free money?).
Whatever they do they'll still have a good coach, a reliable rim protector, an off-kilter PG and....well, the weather's nice. Riley is always capable of wheeling and/or dealing so don't write them off yet. But, man, with no draft picks and no cap flexibility we will see the depth of Riley's magic.
2017-18 NBA Playoffs (2nd round)
West
Pelicans-Warriors
The Pelicans were the best team in the 1st round, destroying the Blazers in every way for four straight games. Not much depth (man, Solomon Hill was kinda awful and Ian Clark is more hindrance than help) but their main rotation looks like the best in the league right now. The Warriors don't have anything to stop Anthony Davis (Draymond is not the answer), might lose Klay Thompson's brilliance if Jrue Holiday keeps up his torrid defensive work, won't deter playoff Rondo (doesn't matter who his opponent is), and could be matched if Mirotic can keep up his hot hand. The Warriors never looked into it this season, coasted at the outset and then seriously coasted after it was clear the Rockets were gonna take the top spot. With Durant, Steph, Klay and Draymond they still have enough to be the best in the league but they haven't shown that yet. Against the Spurs Durant was Durant and Klay was terrific but outside of a nice showing from JaVale McGee, the rest of the cast didn't show: Steph hasn't played in almost a month, Draymond is more bluster than brilliance lately, Iguodala is a shell of himself and Livingston is merely competent. I thought the Spurs would wake them up but the Spurs without Kawhi aren't much of a team. So they've continued to coast. The Warriors were my pre-season pick to win it all and my pick again at the beginning of the playoffs, obviously I think they are (or can be) the best. But I haven't seen them play like the best in so long and outside of their main four guys, I have no faith in their bench (and only marginal faith in Draymond or Steph right now), and they did not get the 1st round wake up call I thought they needed. This is tough because I was so impressed with the Pelicans and we're only now seeing what Anthony Davis can do. I gotta go with the Warriors in 7 under the assumption that this is the wakeup call they need (but, man, if Holiday shuts down Klay....whew, this series gets very close).
Jazz-Rockets
I've never had faith in the playoff capabilities of James Harden or Chris Paul and I think without those two at their best the Rockets don't have much else to go on. Trevor Ariza, Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon are solid and have moments of going above and beyond but I haven't been blown away by any of them lately. Gerald Green can fill it up but he can also get over his skis and Joe Johnson frankly doesn't fit the way the Rockets play and I think won't contribute much. I like Clint Capela as much as the next guy but he needs a lot of service from Chris Paul to be really effective and PJ Tucker is a dirty work guy, not a game changer. You may think that after the way they dusted off the Wolves with some truly sub-standard performances from Harden and Paul that my thesis is actually already disproved; but I say no, that just shows what a mess the Wolves are. The Jazz in that sense are the anti-Wolves: they play as a team, they know their roles and no one overdoes it. On their end I'm a little worried about Rubio hobbling out of their last game against OKC, it is Rubio and Ingles as the big brothers that create the framework for Donovan Mitchell to succeed. Favors and Gobert can easily counter Capela and keep Harden honest on the inside. (And I can't help noting Alec Burks lighting it up in his brief appearances in Games One and Six; he's been there so long and fallen so far out of favor, you know he wants a chance to gets some work in) So it comes down to shooting: if the Rockets shoot the lights out, they should win easily; but if they struggle from the perimeter, the Jazz have a real shot. Some are pointing to the regular season dominance Houston exhibited over Utah but I would point out that all four of those games were early in the season before the true emergence of Mitchell, so I don't think they're representative of who these teams are now. I had OKC beating the Rockets in the 2nd round (that was my pre-season pick and my pre-playoffs pick, too), so I'm open to the idea that the Rockets won't move on. My gut is the Jazz aren't quite ready to do it but since this is all about the Rockets and not their opponent, that doesn't even matter. The Jazz just took out OKC--who I already thought was better suited for the playoffs than the Rockets. So I'll take the Jazz in 6. I think Harden and Paul flounder, the Rockets have no second option and the Jazz play their game and succeed.
East
Bucks-Celtics (Game Seven)
The home team has won every game so far. I predicted as much and so I'm not shocked by this development. The emergence of Jaysun Tatum and Jaylen Brown flanking Al Horford has been the framework for the Celtics--and it's a good one! Adding in Marcus Smart gives them a little more grit, should make 2-3 plays that cement the lead. Baynes will reliably contribute. The high risk/reward wild cards are Marcus Morris and Terry Rozer: if they just play hard, they'll be fine but if they try to do too much, they could shoot the Bucks back into the game. The Bucks are Giannis...and I dunno, some other guys. Khris Middleton has played well, Malcolm Brogdon has been good, Tony Snell and Tyler Zeller have been fine but in a Game Seven I don't see them as difference makers. And the surprise contribution of Thon Maker in Milwaukee will not translate to Boston. Eric Bledsoe hasn't been great, not sure that he makes any great improvement in the final game. The Bucks have one move they can make and that is to maximize Jabari Parker. Parker has been good, if inconsistent so far, but if he blows up tonight, he can make the different for the Bucks. Ehh, I'm betting that doesn't happen. I'll go with the Celtics.
Pacers-Cavs (Game Seven).
The Cavs go as far as Lebron drags them. If Lebron gets that vacant look in his eyes, then the whole stadium will feel it. If he's scuffling, if he's passing instead of attacking, if he's lingering on the bench instead of playing his regular 45 minutes, everyone will know and the Cavs will clench up. The Pacers will be liberated and they will run wild. That's the scenario for a Cavs loss. The scenario for a Cavs win is Lebron doing everything and doing it better than the entire other team. If the Pacers just play a smart, consistent game, they will put a lot of pressure on Lebron and that's the very dangerous place for the Cavs: if Lebron has to do it all by himself and he comes up short....man, he ain't gonna be back with the Cavs next year. I don't know who wins this game. I guess I'd go with the Cavs but the nightmare scenario is brewing.
Pelicans-Warriors
The Pelicans were the best team in the 1st round, destroying the Blazers in every way for four straight games. Not much depth (man, Solomon Hill was kinda awful and Ian Clark is more hindrance than help) but their main rotation looks like the best in the league right now. The Warriors don't have anything to stop Anthony Davis (Draymond is not the answer), might lose Klay Thompson's brilliance if Jrue Holiday keeps up his torrid defensive work, won't deter playoff Rondo (doesn't matter who his opponent is), and could be matched if Mirotic can keep up his hot hand. The Warriors never looked into it this season, coasted at the outset and then seriously coasted after it was clear the Rockets were gonna take the top spot. With Durant, Steph, Klay and Draymond they still have enough to be the best in the league but they haven't shown that yet. Against the Spurs Durant was Durant and Klay was terrific but outside of a nice showing from JaVale McGee, the rest of the cast didn't show: Steph hasn't played in almost a month, Draymond is more bluster than brilliance lately, Iguodala is a shell of himself and Livingston is merely competent. I thought the Spurs would wake them up but the Spurs without Kawhi aren't much of a team. So they've continued to coast. The Warriors were my pre-season pick to win it all and my pick again at the beginning of the playoffs, obviously I think they are (or can be) the best. But I haven't seen them play like the best in so long and outside of their main four guys, I have no faith in their bench (and only marginal faith in Draymond or Steph right now), and they did not get the 1st round wake up call I thought they needed. This is tough because I was so impressed with the Pelicans and we're only now seeing what Anthony Davis can do. I gotta go with the Warriors in 7 under the assumption that this is the wakeup call they need (but, man, if Holiday shuts down Klay....whew, this series gets very close).
Jazz-Rockets
I've never had faith in the playoff capabilities of James Harden or Chris Paul and I think without those two at their best the Rockets don't have much else to go on. Trevor Ariza, Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon are solid and have moments of going above and beyond but I haven't been blown away by any of them lately. Gerald Green can fill it up but he can also get over his skis and Joe Johnson frankly doesn't fit the way the Rockets play and I think won't contribute much. I like Clint Capela as much as the next guy but he needs a lot of service from Chris Paul to be really effective and PJ Tucker is a dirty work guy, not a game changer. You may think that after the way they dusted off the Wolves with some truly sub-standard performances from Harden and Paul that my thesis is actually already disproved; but I say no, that just shows what a mess the Wolves are. The Jazz in that sense are the anti-Wolves: they play as a team, they know their roles and no one overdoes it. On their end I'm a little worried about Rubio hobbling out of their last game against OKC, it is Rubio and Ingles as the big brothers that create the framework for Donovan Mitchell to succeed. Favors and Gobert can easily counter Capela and keep Harden honest on the inside. (And I can't help noting Alec Burks lighting it up in his brief appearances in Games One and Six; he's been there so long and fallen so far out of favor, you know he wants a chance to gets some work in) So it comes down to shooting: if the Rockets shoot the lights out, they should win easily; but if they struggle from the perimeter, the Jazz have a real shot. Some are pointing to the regular season dominance Houston exhibited over Utah but I would point out that all four of those games were early in the season before the true emergence of Mitchell, so I don't think they're representative of who these teams are now. I had OKC beating the Rockets in the 2nd round (that was my pre-season pick and my pre-playoffs pick, too), so I'm open to the idea that the Rockets won't move on. My gut is the Jazz aren't quite ready to do it but since this is all about the Rockets and not their opponent, that doesn't even matter. The Jazz just took out OKC--who I already thought was better suited for the playoffs than the Rockets. So I'll take the Jazz in 6. I think Harden and Paul flounder, the Rockets have no second option and the Jazz play their game and succeed.
East
Bucks-Celtics (Game Seven)
The home team has won every game so far. I predicted as much and so I'm not shocked by this development. The emergence of Jaysun Tatum and Jaylen Brown flanking Al Horford has been the framework for the Celtics--and it's a good one! Adding in Marcus Smart gives them a little more grit, should make 2-3 plays that cement the lead. Baynes will reliably contribute. The high risk/reward wild cards are Marcus Morris and Terry Rozer: if they just play hard, they'll be fine but if they try to do too much, they could shoot the Bucks back into the game. The Bucks are Giannis...and I dunno, some other guys. Khris Middleton has played well, Malcolm Brogdon has been good, Tony Snell and Tyler Zeller have been fine but in a Game Seven I don't see them as difference makers. And the surprise contribution of Thon Maker in Milwaukee will not translate to Boston. Eric Bledsoe hasn't been great, not sure that he makes any great improvement in the final game. The Bucks have one move they can make and that is to maximize Jabari Parker. Parker has been good, if inconsistent so far, but if he blows up tonight, he can make the different for the Bucks. Ehh, I'm betting that doesn't happen. I'll go with the Celtics.
Pacers-Cavs (Game Seven).
The Cavs go as far as Lebron drags them. If Lebron gets that vacant look in his eyes, then the whole stadium will feel it. If he's scuffling, if he's passing instead of attacking, if he's lingering on the bench instead of playing his regular 45 minutes, everyone will know and the Cavs will clench up. The Pacers will be liberated and they will run wild. That's the scenario for a Cavs loss. The scenario for a Cavs win is Lebron doing everything and doing it better than the entire other team. If the Pacers just play a smart, consistent game, they will put a lot of pressure on Lebron and that's the very dangerous place for the Cavs: if Lebron has to do it all by himself and he comes up short....man, he ain't gonna be back with the Cavs next year. I don't know who wins this game. I guess I'd go with the Cavs but the nightmare scenario is brewing.
Tuesday, April 24, 2018
2017-18 NBA Playoffs (Game Four reactions)
Sixers 128-108 Heat (Sixers up 2-1)
Sixers 106-102 Heat (Sixers up 3-1)
The Heat stole Game Two in Philly by playing suffocating defense that caught the Sixers off guard. In Game Three, the Sixers returned the favor and took the control back. The Heat all year long have been built on a weird lineup that can emphasize different aspects on different nights but in the playoffs you have to be who you are and the Heat aren't really anything. The Sixers have a clear strategy built around the Simmons-Embiid-Saric lineup and they can replicate their effort each night in a way that allows the supporting cast to make the necessary contributions. The reinvention the Heat go through night after night can create surprises but in the long run won't defeat a better team in a series. They've got a good coach and a lot of veteran savvy but their inability to produce consistent results dooms them in the post-season. That said, I was surprised that the Heat came up short in Game Four, I thought they'd take it. But the Sixers bullied their way to a victory and the veteran savvy of the Heat were powerless to stop it. Normally young teams don't advance in the playoffs but the recent Warriors-Cavs dominance has created a vacuum for anyone to step up. Simmons and Embiid and Saric look fully capable in the suddenly winnable East. I fully expect the Sixers to win Game Five back in Philly and finish this series.
Blazers 102-119 Pelicans (Pelicans up 3-0)
Blazers 123-131 Pelicans (Pelicans 4-0)
Man, I hope you had Jrue Holiday on your all-defense team because he suffocated Damien Lillard in this series. Throw in that McCollum was mostly invisible til Game Four and there's just no way for the Blazers to steal a win. The Pelicans don't have a great deal of depth but the Rondo-Holiday-Mirotic-Davis line is playing really well right now. (Gotta figure the Warriors will take the Pelicans but this might be that kick in the ass that I thought the Spurs were going to give them) McCollum finally showed up in Game Four and the Pelicans kinda got sloppy down the stretch but the Blazers just didn't have enough to get anything done in their series. When you don't have the best player, then its tough to win a series. But when you don't have the four best players, man, it ain't even a series any more. Davis is the man--that's undisputed--and Rondo and Holiday were the 2nd and 3rd best (take your pick) with Mirotic close behind as #4. I've long thought that if Rajon Rondo is your fourth best player then you can win a championship, I wasn't really thinking of the Pelicans as a contender--but I am now. If Mirotic keeps up his shooting, then the Pelicans are for real. They will give the Warriors something to think about and if the Rockets are gonna fumble with the Wolves and the Cavs are struggling against the Pacers...then...shit...yeah--the Pelicans are a legit contender to win it all. It'd be pretty crazy, that isn't how the NBA works but they are fucking ballin' right now and no one else has shown up yet. (Pelicans-Sixers final? I'm down with that)
Warriors 110-97 Spurs (Warriors up 3-0)
Warriors 90-103 Spurs (Warriors up 3-1)
The Spurs are done. I thought they'd have a game plan that would take advantage of how poorly the Warriors finished then season, but the Warriors are not playing poorly any more (though they still have room to get better). Aldridge is not built to carry this kind of load, Gay and Pau are playing okay, but the perimeter scoring and the transition defense are just not there for the Spurs. And they don't have the depth necessary to throw waves of bodies at the Warriors. The Warriors still need to go up a level but this series isn't in danger. I was surprised that the Warriors let Game Four slip away--Klay was finally mortal and Manu was the old time Manu--you'd think with the Pelicans stomping their way through Portland that the Warriors would want to get the Spurs series over with. But then again consider this: without Steph they are in serious danger against the Pelicans so perhaps letting this opening series drag on is their best move to get Steph back. Look, with Steph I'm confident the Warriors will have enough to outscore most everyone they play, but without Steph they're vulnerable--especially to the Pelicans. Look, man, Draymond is the dominant presence he has been, Iguodala is a shell of himself, Livingston is merely competent off the bench and there's no one else that's gonna step up. Durant and Klay and Steph is still good enough to win it all but without Steph they'll need Klay to be perfect. Are you betting on perfect considering what Holiday just did to Lillard? I expect the Warriors to win Game Five surely by muscle memory but if they stop and think about it, they may let the Spurs win another game or two just to get closer to Steph's return.
Cavs 90-92 Pacers (Pacers up 2-1)
Cavs 100-104 Pacers (Series tied 2-2)
This is the most even series out there. The Pacers are a tight, well-controlled team and at their best they're probably better than the Cavs; the Cavs, like the Heat, have to figure it out night after night and pushing Lebron into the red for 48 minutes a game is their best bet to win games. The key for the Pacers--and this is not a good thing--is Lance Stephenson. When Lance plays...uhh....good?....then they can throw the Cavs off just enough to get a lead or erase one; but when he's awful, which is most of the time (outside of fearlessly punching Lebron James in the head, does he have any basketball skills at all?), he fumbles away whatever advantage the Pacers might have. Benching Lance gives them no wild card but bringing in Lance could kill their momentum. It's a tricky recipe for the Pacers and Lance is the salt: too little and they are bland, too much and the meal is ruined. Which is why I still gotta go with the Cavs. But the Cavs have hardly been dominant or even clearly better than the Pacers which should give the rest of the East hope. I was not one who thought that Lebron was on his way out of Cleveland but Brian Windhorst's recent comments are salient: the earlier the Cavs bow out, the more time Lebron has to consider his options. The Cavs need to keep winning just to survive as a franchise. (Man, they gave away Kyrie last year and now their hero is on his way out, too? Any Patriots fans deeply regretting giving away Garropolo after watching this Cavs-Pacers series?) I still like the Cavs to pull it out in 7 but, man, they look weak. And would they rather see the Raptors or the Wizards?
Raptors 103-122 Wizards (Raptors up 2-1)
Raptors 98-106 Wizards (Series tied 2-2)
The Wizards have at least one or two good games in them and the Raptors are susceptible to crises of confidence. So while the Raptors have been the better, deeper, more complete team in every way so far, this series isn't over because the Raptors are quite capable of gacking this up. I thought the Wizards turned their home court advantage into an opportunity to thug their way back into the series--and the refs let 'em do it. Man, the refs went after Gortat in Toronto but then let Morris bully them back in DC. The refs have already lost control of this series which means the Raptors have to do this by themselves. Upside: if they man up, play their game and beat the Wizards they will be primed for a boost of confidence going into the next round; downside: if they get lost in their own heads and let the Wizards get past them then no one will ever believe in them ever. (Boy, a Raptors-Cavs series will have a real creepy air of apocalypse hanging over it, no?) The Wizards play nasty but that's pretty much all they got (although that act may give the Cavs fits if it comes to that). All they can do is keep swaggering and hope the Raptors blink. This is going seven games, I'll definitely take the home team in Five and Six. Game Seven is probably up to the refs.
Celtics 92-116 Bucks (Celtics up 2-1)
Celtics 102-104 Bucks (Series ties 2-2)
I thought the Bucks would make this series a slopfest and that could be their chance to get by the Celtics. But frankly after the first two games I didn't think the Bucks were savvy enough to even do that, whereas the Celtics are more resilient (Al Horford is their rock) than I gave them credit for. However, back in Milwaukee the Bucks showed that they can indeed muddy up the field and slog their way past the Celtics. They kinda did that in Game One, if they can do it in Game Seven, they'll be moving on. For the Celtics, I've been blown by Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum--they're giving the Celtics faithful plenty to be excited about and with the possibility of Marcus Smart coming back, the Celtics could be in business. I think Smart becomes the wild card, if he can return I'd take the Celtics to move on; but without him, this is a coin flip. Again, I'll take the home teams in Five and Six and then Game Seven is up to the refs.
Rockets 105-121 Wolves (Rockets up 2-1)
Rockets 100-119 Wolves (Rockets up 3-1)
Chris Paul was awful in Game One, James Harden was awful in Game Two...and the Rockets were still up 2-0. Do you see this works? In Game Three the Rockets completely bottomed out and let Derrick Rose walk all over them. But in Game Four they rode one good quarter to control of the series. Oh, man, this series is so annoying. The Rockets haven't bothered to play their game yet (I wonder if they will) but the Wolves suck so bad that the Rockets are still on the brink of winning. (Man, don't you kinda think the Nuggets would at least be more fun to watch?) This is that classic lame-ass 1st round match in an otherwise stellar post-season campaign so far. I assume the Rockets will fuck around and still thoroughly whip the Wolves in Game Five.
Thunder 102-115 Jazz (Jazz up 2-1)
Thunder 96-113 Jazz (Jazz up 3-1)
The Thunder do sometimes slip Raptors-like into self-abnegation rather then swagger and when their shooting dries up, they can really scuffle out there. The upside of a player like Russell Westbrook is you can rely on him to do what needs to be done; the downside is when he doesn't get it done, there's nowhere else to go. Suddenly the Thunder are in a deep dark hole and have yet to do any of that "meshing" we've been assuming they would've done by now. The Jazz, on the other hand, are on cruise control. I watched the Jazz a lot this year and when Gobert came back into the lineup around the all-star game, the Jazz settled into Mitchell as the leader with Rubio and Ingles as the big brothers that provide the structure. Since then the Jazz have been killing everybody with consistency and efficiency. I thought the Thunder would solve the Jazz playing them night after night but...uh...nope, it's the other way around. The Jazz are savvy, man, Mitchell is something brand new and the Jazz know how to ride a rookie. Thunder are at the end of their rope now, could be this is the moment they get their shit together but I'm dubious. I think its over for the Thunder, we hardly knew ye. I'll take the Thunder to bounce in Game Five, but I reckon the Jazz will be ready in Game Six.
Rank 'em
1) Pelicans (daaaaaaaaaamn!)
2) Sixers (sloppy but getting it done, Simmons-Saric-Embiid are ready to win now)
3) Jazz (playing their game their way and its working)
6) Pacers (they haven't panicked, they're looking pretty good)
7/8) Raptors/Wizards (home team wins all seven games, I'm guessing)
9) Celtics (impressively pulling it together without key players)
10) Bucks (in the slop they're better than the Celtics, keep sloppin' to get ahead)
11) Cavs (still trying to figure themselves out, Pacers might be the kick in the ass they need)
14) Blazers (dude, they ran into a buzzsaw)
15) Spurs (yeah, I put the Spurs behind the Blazers, because winning one game took everything they had and still needed the other team to not show up)
16) Wolves (the Rockets are giving them a chance and I still don't believe in them)
Sixers 106-102 Heat (Sixers up 3-1)
The Heat stole Game Two in Philly by playing suffocating defense that caught the Sixers off guard. In Game Three, the Sixers returned the favor and took the control back. The Heat all year long have been built on a weird lineup that can emphasize different aspects on different nights but in the playoffs you have to be who you are and the Heat aren't really anything. The Sixers have a clear strategy built around the Simmons-Embiid-Saric lineup and they can replicate their effort each night in a way that allows the supporting cast to make the necessary contributions. The reinvention the Heat go through night after night can create surprises but in the long run won't defeat a better team in a series. They've got a good coach and a lot of veteran savvy but their inability to produce consistent results dooms them in the post-season. That said, I was surprised that the Heat came up short in Game Four, I thought they'd take it. But the Sixers bullied their way to a victory and the veteran savvy of the Heat were powerless to stop it. Normally young teams don't advance in the playoffs but the recent Warriors-Cavs dominance has created a vacuum for anyone to step up. Simmons and Embiid and Saric look fully capable in the suddenly winnable East. I fully expect the Sixers to win Game Five back in Philly and finish this series.
Blazers 102-119 Pelicans (Pelicans up 3-0)
Blazers 123-131 Pelicans (Pelicans 4-0)
Man, I hope you had Jrue Holiday on your all-defense team because he suffocated Damien Lillard in this series. Throw in that McCollum was mostly invisible til Game Four and there's just no way for the Blazers to steal a win. The Pelicans don't have a great deal of depth but the Rondo-Holiday-Mirotic-Davis line is playing really well right now. (Gotta figure the Warriors will take the Pelicans but this might be that kick in the ass that I thought the Spurs were going to give them) McCollum finally showed up in Game Four and the Pelicans kinda got sloppy down the stretch but the Blazers just didn't have enough to get anything done in their series. When you don't have the best player, then its tough to win a series. But when you don't have the four best players, man, it ain't even a series any more. Davis is the man--that's undisputed--and Rondo and Holiday were the 2nd and 3rd best (take your pick) with Mirotic close behind as #4. I've long thought that if Rajon Rondo is your fourth best player then you can win a championship, I wasn't really thinking of the Pelicans as a contender--but I am now. If Mirotic keeps up his shooting, then the Pelicans are for real. They will give the Warriors something to think about and if the Rockets are gonna fumble with the Wolves and the Cavs are struggling against the Pacers...then...shit...yeah--the Pelicans are a legit contender to win it all. It'd be pretty crazy, that isn't how the NBA works but they are fucking ballin' right now and no one else has shown up yet. (Pelicans-Sixers final? I'm down with that)
Warriors 110-97 Spurs (Warriors up 3-0)
Warriors 90-103 Spurs (Warriors up 3-1)
The Spurs are done. I thought they'd have a game plan that would take advantage of how poorly the Warriors finished then season, but the Warriors are not playing poorly any more (though they still have room to get better). Aldridge is not built to carry this kind of load, Gay and Pau are playing okay, but the perimeter scoring and the transition defense are just not there for the Spurs. And they don't have the depth necessary to throw waves of bodies at the Warriors. The Warriors still need to go up a level but this series isn't in danger. I was surprised that the Warriors let Game Four slip away--Klay was finally mortal and Manu was the old time Manu--you'd think with the Pelicans stomping their way through Portland that the Warriors would want to get the Spurs series over with. But then again consider this: without Steph they are in serious danger against the Pelicans so perhaps letting this opening series drag on is their best move to get Steph back. Look, with Steph I'm confident the Warriors will have enough to outscore most everyone they play, but without Steph they're vulnerable--especially to the Pelicans. Look, man, Draymond is the dominant presence he has been, Iguodala is a shell of himself, Livingston is merely competent off the bench and there's no one else that's gonna step up. Durant and Klay and Steph is still good enough to win it all but without Steph they'll need Klay to be perfect. Are you betting on perfect considering what Holiday just did to Lillard? I expect the Warriors to win Game Five surely by muscle memory but if they stop and think about it, they may let the Spurs win another game or two just to get closer to Steph's return.
Cavs 90-92 Pacers (Pacers up 2-1)
Cavs 100-104 Pacers (Series tied 2-2)
This is the most even series out there. The Pacers are a tight, well-controlled team and at their best they're probably better than the Cavs; the Cavs, like the Heat, have to figure it out night after night and pushing Lebron into the red for 48 minutes a game is their best bet to win games. The key for the Pacers--and this is not a good thing--is Lance Stephenson. When Lance plays...uhh....good?....then they can throw the Cavs off just enough to get a lead or erase one; but when he's awful, which is most of the time (outside of fearlessly punching Lebron James in the head, does he have any basketball skills at all?), he fumbles away whatever advantage the Pacers might have. Benching Lance gives them no wild card but bringing in Lance could kill their momentum. It's a tricky recipe for the Pacers and Lance is the salt: too little and they are bland, too much and the meal is ruined. Which is why I still gotta go with the Cavs. But the Cavs have hardly been dominant or even clearly better than the Pacers which should give the rest of the East hope. I was not one who thought that Lebron was on his way out of Cleveland but Brian Windhorst's recent comments are salient: the earlier the Cavs bow out, the more time Lebron has to consider his options. The Cavs need to keep winning just to survive as a franchise. (Man, they gave away Kyrie last year and now their hero is on his way out, too? Any Patriots fans deeply regretting giving away Garropolo after watching this Cavs-Pacers series?) I still like the Cavs to pull it out in 7 but, man, they look weak. And would they rather see the Raptors or the Wizards?
Raptors 103-122 Wizards (Raptors up 2-1)
Raptors 98-106 Wizards (Series tied 2-2)
The Wizards have at least one or two good games in them and the Raptors are susceptible to crises of confidence. So while the Raptors have been the better, deeper, more complete team in every way so far, this series isn't over because the Raptors are quite capable of gacking this up. I thought the Wizards turned their home court advantage into an opportunity to thug their way back into the series--and the refs let 'em do it. Man, the refs went after Gortat in Toronto but then let Morris bully them back in DC. The refs have already lost control of this series which means the Raptors have to do this by themselves. Upside: if they man up, play their game and beat the Wizards they will be primed for a boost of confidence going into the next round; downside: if they get lost in their own heads and let the Wizards get past them then no one will ever believe in them ever. (Boy, a Raptors-Cavs series will have a real creepy air of apocalypse hanging over it, no?) The Wizards play nasty but that's pretty much all they got (although that act may give the Cavs fits if it comes to that). All they can do is keep swaggering and hope the Raptors blink. This is going seven games, I'll definitely take the home team in Five and Six. Game Seven is probably up to the refs.
Celtics 92-116 Bucks (Celtics up 2-1)
Celtics 102-104 Bucks (Series ties 2-2)
I thought the Bucks would make this series a slopfest and that could be their chance to get by the Celtics. But frankly after the first two games I didn't think the Bucks were savvy enough to even do that, whereas the Celtics are more resilient (Al Horford is their rock) than I gave them credit for. However, back in Milwaukee the Bucks showed that they can indeed muddy up the field and slog their way past the Celtics. They kinda did that in Game One, if they can do it in Game Seven, they'll be moving on. For the Celtics, I've been blown by Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum--they're giving the Celtics faithful plenty to be excited about and with the possibility of Marcus Smart coming back, the Celtics could be in business. I think Smart becomes the wild card, if he can return I'd take the Celtics to move on; but without him, this is a coin flip. Again, I'll take the home teams in Five and Six and then Game Seven is up to the refs.
Rockets 105-121 Wolves (Rockets up 2-1)
Rockets 100-119 Wolves (Rockets up 3-1)
Chris Paul was awful in Game One, James Harden was awful in Game Two...and the Rockets were still up 2-0. Do you see this works? In Game Three the Rockets completely bottomed out and let Derrick Rose walk all over them. But in Game Four they rode one good quarter to control of the series. Oh, man, this series is so annoying. The Rockets haven't bothered to play their game yet (I wonder if they will) but the Wolves suck so bad that the Rockets are still on the brink of winning. (Man, don't you kinda think the Nuggets would at least be more fun to watch?) This is that classic lame-ass 1st round match in an otherwise stellar post-season campaign so far. I assume the Rockets will fuck around and still thoroughly whip the Wolves in Game Five.
Thunder 102-115 Jazz (Jazz up 2-1)
Thunder 96-113 Jazz (Jazz up 3-1)
The Thunder do sometimes slip Raptors-like into self-abnegation rather then swagger and when their shooting dries up, they can really scuffle out there. The upside of a player like Russell Westbrook is you can rely on him to do what needs to be done; the downside is when he doesn't get it done, there's nowhere else to go. Suddenly the Thunder are in a deep dark hole and have yet to do any of that "meshing" we've been assuming they would've done by now. The Jazz, on the other hand, are on cruise control. I watched the Jazz a lot this year and when Gobert came back into the lineup around the all-star game, the Jazz settled into Mitchell as the leader with Rubio and Ingles as the big brothers that provide the structure. Since then the Jazz have been killing everybody with consistency and efficiency. I thought the Thunder would solve the Jazz playing them night after night but...uh...nope, it's the other way around. The Jazz are savvy, man, Mitchell is something brand new and the Jazz know how to ride a rookie. Thunder are at the end of their rope now, could be this is the moment they get their shit together but I'm dubious. I think its over for the Thunder, we hardly knew ye. I'll take the Thunder to bounce in Game Five, but I reckon the Jazz will be ready in Game Six.
Rank 'em
1) Pelicans (daaaaaaaaaamn!)
2) Sixers (sloppy but getting it done, Simmons-Saric-Embiid are ready to win now)
3) Jazz (playing their game their way and its working)
4) Warriors (not a strong 3rd place, incidentally, considering how bad the Spurs are)
5) Rockets (kinda playing like shit, series should be over already and Rockets haven't even started)6) Pacers (they haven't panicked, they're looking pretty good)
7/8) Raptors/Wizards (home team wins all seven games, I'm guessing)
9) Celtics (impressively pulling it together without key players)
10) Bucks (in the slop they're better than the Celtics, keep sloppin' to get ahead)
11) Cavs (still trying to figure themselves out, Pacers might be the kick in the ass they need)
12) Heat (playing hard but not getting lucky and the Sixers are readier than we thought)
13) Thunder (still convinced they'd destroy Utah if they just do it...but I'm giving up on that)14) Blazers (dude, they ran into a buzzsaw)
15) Spurs (yeah, I put the Spurs behind the Blazers, because winning one game took everything they had and still needed the other team to not show up)
16) Wolves (the Rockets are giving them a chance and I still don't believe in them)
2018-19 Denver Nuggets
2017-18: 46-36
Draft picks: 14-ish,43,58
Signed for next season ($107.4m): C Paul Millsap, SG Gary Harris, PF Kenneth Faried, PF Mason Plumlee, SF Wilson Chandler, SF Darrell Arthur, PG Jamal Murray, PF Trey Lyles, SF Juan Hernangomez, PF Tyler Lydon, SG Malik Beasley, SF Nikola Jokic
This summer's free agents: Devin Harris, Will Barton, Richard Jefferson, Monte Morris, Torrey Craig
Morris and Craig are on 2-way contracts. Harris and Jefferson are expendable and while I'm guessing they'd love to bring back Barton, I don't think they will have the resources.
First things first: Jokic needs to get paid this summer. He's clearly shown he's a badass and he's currently the cheapest player on their roster. They may or may not give him a raise this year (if I were Jokic's agent I'd want more money sooner but the team does have the leverage) but signing Jokic to an extension is the first order of business.
The Nuggets have good size on the bench already (Lyles, Hernangomez, Lydon) and since they've shown a propensity to draft combo guards, it feels like Khyri Thomas (Creighton) at #14 could be a good fit. And how about Shake Miltom (SMU) at #43? The #58 is generally best utilized on some random European prospect but would they be interested if Rawle Alkins (Arizona) was still there?
Wilson Chandler ($12.8m) and Darrell Arthur have player options ($7.4m), both of whom I would assume will opt in (though I'd rather have the money if I were the Nuggets). Money's tight and after signing Jokic and bringing in a lottery pick, there won't be much left over for free agents. If they could dump the last $13.7m they owe Faried that would give them some flexibility. (Question: could they swap the final year of Faried for the virtually identical final year of Tyson Chandler? Couldn't they then waive Chandler (and the Suns could waive Faried) without affecting the cap? Not sure but I think it would work)
For now the lineup looks like: PG Murray, SG Harris, SF Chandler, PF Millsap, C Jokic with Beasley, Lyles, Hernangomez, Plumee and #14 pick off the bench (no more Will Barton). This is pretty much what got them to the brink of the playoffs. If they can get more minutes out of Millsap and continued maturation from Murray, Harris, Jokic, Beasley and Lyles, that should get them close again next year. Next summer they'll have money to spend and a lot of team options, allowing them to move on from Millsap if it doesn't work or reconfigure the youth movement. Looks like the plan is to build up the core, keep pushing toward the post-season and make a big splash next summer.
Draft picks: 14-ish,43,58
Signed for next season ($107.4m): C Paul Millsap, SG Gary Harris, PF Kenneth Faried, PF Mason Plumlee, SF Wilson Chandler, SF Darrell Arthur, PG Jamal Murray, PF Trey Lyles, SF Juan Hernangomez, PF Tyler Lydon, SG Malik Beasley, SF Nikola Jokic
Morris and Craig are on 2-way contracts. Harris and Jefferson are expendable and while I'm guessing they'd love to bring back Barton, I don't think they will have the resources.
First things first: Jokic needs to get paid this summer. He's clearly shown he's a badass and he's currently the cheapest player on their roster. They may or may not give him a raise this year (if I were Jokic's agent I'd want more money sooner but the team does have the leverage) but signing Jokic to an extension is the first order of business.
The Nuggets have good size on the bench already (Lyles, Hernangomez, Lydon) and since they've shown a propensity to draft combo guards, it feels like Khyri Thomas (Creighton) at #14 could be a good fit. And how about Shake Miltom (SMU) at #43? The #58 is generally best utilized on some random European prospect but would they be interested if Rawle Alkins (Arizona) was still there?
Wilson Chandler ($12.8m) and Darrell Arthur have player options ($7.4m), both of whom I would assume will opt in (though I'd rather have the money if I were the Nuggets). Money's tight and after signing Jokic and bringing in a lottery pick, there won't be much left over for free agents. If they could dump the last $13.7m they owe Faried that would give them some flexibility. (Question: could they swap the final year of Faried for the virtually identical final year of Tyson Chandler? Couldn't they then waive Chandler (and the Suns could waive Faried) without affecting the cap? Not sure but I think it would work)
For now the lineup looks like: PG Murray, SG Harris, SF Chandler, PF Millsap, C Jokic with Beasley, Lyles, Hernangomez, Plumee and #14 pick off the bench (no more Will Barton). This is pretty much what got them to the brink of the playoffs. If they can get more minutes out of Millsap and continued maturation from Murray, Harris, Jokic, Beasley and Lyles, that should get them close again next year. Next summer they'll have money to spend and a lot of team options, allowing them to move on from Millsap if it doesn't work or reconfigure the youth movement. Looks like the plan is to build up the core, keep pushing toward the post-season and make a big splash next summer.
2018-19 Los Angeles Clippers
2017-18: 42-40
Draft picks: 12-ish, 13-ish
Signed for next season ($112m): C Deandre Jordan, SF Danilo Galinari, SF Tobias Harris, PG Austin Rivers, PG Lou Williams, C Boban Marjonovic, PG Milos Teodosic, SF Wesley Johnson, SG Patrick Beverley, PF Sam Dekker, PG Jawun Evans, SG Sindarius Thornwell
The Clippers likely fancy themselves built on veterans rather than rookies (that may depend on who their coach is) but they need depth everywhere so if they could score, say, Collin Sexton (Alabama) and Robert Williams (Texas A&M), that wouldn't be a bad way to go. Though if they could score the Kentucky pair (Knox and Gilgeous-Alexander) I think they should do that. Back-to-back lottery picks are an interesting novelty. Seems like they have twice the leverage if they want to trade one or both picks (or package one with Gallinari to clear even more cap room).
Worth noting that Jordan, Rivers, Teodosic and Johnson have player options. I think Deandre opts out and I think Rivers opts out (because I also think Papa Doc Rivers moves on, too). I expect Johnson to come back but I suspect Teodosic can get more than $6.3m if he opts out. So I expect the Clippers roster to look wildly different in 6 weeks or so. If Jordan, Rivers and Teodosic opt out, the Clippers will suddenly have a ton of money to spend. I'm not seeing them getting Paul George but they could offer Demarcus Cousins a hefty pile of cash. Likely they'll end up with something like Derrick Favors, Joe Johnson, maybe Ed Davis or Dante Exum to go with two new rookies. Or they run it back with the so-so team they had last year. I dunno, they're wide open at this point. We'll know more when opt-out day passes.
For now: I dunno. I think they'll be looking for a new coach soon. And I think they'll be looking to fill gaping holes in their roster preferably with big splashy superstars (maybe). Or if no one opts out they could be running back the same team (I bet that doesn't happen). For right now, I have no idea what the Clippers will be rolling into next year with.
Draft picks: 12-ish, 13-ish
Signed for next season ($112m): C Deandre Jordan, SF Danilo Galinari, SF Tobias Harris, PG Austin Rivers, PG Lou Williams, C Boban Marjonovic, PG Milos Teodosic, SF Wesley Johnson, SG Patrick Beverley, PF Sam Dekker, PG Jawun Evans, SG Sindarius Thornwell
This summer's free agents: Avery Bradley, Montrezl Harrell, CJ Williams, Tyrone Wallace
I think they have to bring back Harrell, I doubt they bring back Bradley, Wallace is on a 2-way contract. No idea about Williams, might depend on whether Austin Rivers sticks around.The Clippers likely fancy themselves built on veterans rather than rookies (that may depend on who their coach is) but they need depth everywhere so if they could score, say, Collin Sexton (Alabama) and Robert Williams (Texas A&M), that wouldn't be a bad way to go. Though if they could score the Kentucky pair (Knox and Gilgeous-Alexander) I think they should do that. Back-to-back lottery picks are an interesting novelty. Seems like they have twice the leverage if they want to trade one or both picks (or package one with Gallinari to clear even more cap room).
For now: I dunno. I think they'll be looking for a new coach soon. And I think they'll be looking to fill gaping holes in their roster preferably with big splashy superstars (maybe). Or if no one opts out they could be running back the same team (I bet that doesn't happen). For right now, I have no idea what the Clippers will be rolling into next year with.
2018-19 Detroit Pistons
2017-18: 39-43
Draft pick: 42
Signed for next season ($117.7m): PF Blake Griffin, C Andre Drummond, PG Reggie Jackson, PF Jon Leuer, SF Langston Galloway, PG Ish Smith, SG Stanley Johnson, SG Luke Kennard, SF Reggie Bullock, PF Henry Ellenson, PF Eric Moreland, PG Dwight Buycks
This summer's free agents: Anthony Tolliver, James Ennis, Jameer Nelson, Kay Felder, Reggie Hearn
Felder and Hearn are on 2-way contracts. They're already over the salary cap, so no money for any of the other guys.
Still no word on whether they'll move on from Stan Van Gundy. Not sure how much longer his deal runs but they've hamstrung the front office for at least another year with the Blake Griffin trade last year. So do they let StanVan dangle for one more year or do they bring a new guy to get the hang of things? I don't know, not sure it makes any difference. I guess I'd keep him, give him one last shot at pulling off a miracle--the playoffs aren't out of the question with this squad--but then look for new blood as soon as the season ends.
And who do they draft at #42? I kinda doubt that Draymond Green or Manu Ginobli will be waiting there and I doubt even more than the Pistons would recognize them if they were there (in recent years they've passed on Devin Booker, Justice Winslow, Donovan Mitchell, Myles Turner, Bobby Portis, etc, etc). So it doesn't matter. I wouldn't be surprised to see them trade it for a future 2nd rounder (could happen) but they do need low cost players so maybe they try to do something with Shake Milton (SMU) or Mo Wagner (Michigan), two guys that have had some buzz about them and could still be available.
With possibly no coach, possibly no Prez of basketball operations, possibly not even a GM and certainly no money to spend (and still two more years of paying Josh Smith), hard to see how the Pistons make a splash in the free agency market this summer. Indeed, if anyone shows the slightest interest in Jon Leuer or Ish Smith, I think they can be had for a coupla cartons of cigarettes. They are married to Blake Griffin, Reggie Jax and Andre Drummond for the next 2-3 years and I don't see that core as a contender any time soon. Time for a "process"!
For now: well, they've got an expensive core that they can work with. They could compete for a playoff spot but hard to imagine them going deep. What they've got now is what they're likely to have next October (with or without StanVan) and while this isn't bad, it's not anything special in the East. The bed is made, coupla more years of lying in it til something happens.
Draft pick: 42
Signed for next season ($117.7m): PF Blake Griffin, C Andre Drummond, PG Reggie Jackson, PF Jon Leuer, SF Langston Galloway, PG Ish Smith, SG Stanley Johnson, SG Luke Kennard, SF Reggie Bullock, PF Henry Ellenson, PF Eric Moreland, PG Dwight Buycks
Felder and Hearn are on 2-way contracts. They're already over the salary cap, so no money for any of the other guys.
Still no word on whether they'll move on from Stan Van Gundy. Not sure how much longer his deal runs but they've hamstrung the front office for at least another year with the Blake Griffin trade last year. So do they let StanVan dangle for one more year or do they bring a new guy to get the hang of things? I don't know, not sure it makes any difference. I guess I'd keep him, give him one last shot at pulling off a miracle--the playoffs aren't out of the question with this squad--but then look for new blood as soon as the season ends.
And who do they draft at #42? I kinda doubt that Draymond Green or Manu Ginobli will be waiting there and I doubt even more than the Pistons would recognize them if they were there (in recent years they've passed on Devin Booker, Justice Winslow, Donovan Mitchell, Myles Turner, Bobby Portis, etc, etc). So it doesn't matter. I wouldn't be surprised to see them trade it for a future 2nd rounder (could happen) but they do need low cost players so maybe they try to do something with Shake Milton (SMU) or Mo Wagner (Michigan), two guys that have had some buzz about them and could still be available.
With possibly no coach, possibly no Prez of basketball operations, possibly not even a GM and certainly no money to spend (and still two more years of paying Josh Smith), hard to see how the Pistons make a splash in the free agency market this summer. Indeed, if anyone shows the slightest interest in Jon Leuer or Ish Smith, I think they can be had for a coupla cartons of cigarettes. They are married to Blake Griffin, Reggie Jax and Andre Drummond for the next 2-3 years and I don't see that core as a contender any time soon. Time for a "process"!
For now: well, they've got an expensive core that they can work with. They could compete for a playoff spot but hard to imagine them going deep. What they've got now is what they're likely to have next October (with or without StanVan) and while this isn't bad, it's not anything special in the East. The bed is made, coupla more years of lying in it til something happens.
2018-19 Charlotte Hornets
2017-18: 36-46
Draft picks: 11-ish
Signed for next season ($119.5m): PF Nicholas Batum, C Dwight Howard, SF Marvin Williams, C Cody Zeller, SF Micheal Kidd-Gilchrist, PG Kemba Walker, SG Jeremy Lamb, PF Frank Kaminsky, SG Malik Monk, SG Julyan Stone, PF Willy Hernangomez, SG Dawyne Bacon
This summer's free agents: Michael Carter-Williams, Traveon Graham, Marcus Paige, Mangok Manthiang
Paige and Manthiang are on 2-way contracts. I don't see why they'd bring back MCW or Graham, both rather nondescript players.
They hired all-world GM Mitch Kupchak to run the show. His first choice will be their new coach. I would think they'd like David Fizdale but I wouldn't be surprised to see them bring in David Blatt. The Hornets look to be mediocre again next year (and already look overpaid for 2019-2020), either Fizdale to motivate or Blatt to innovate is the best bet.
Where do they go in the draft? At #11 they could be in line for Kevin Knox (Kentucky) but do they want to add another Kentucky scorer? I think he's gonna be good but the Hornets have a way of making talent turn to mush. They could probably use a center but all the best C's look to be off the board by then. They could reach for Robert Williams (Texas A&M) or Mitchell Robinson (high schooler) but if they could swap it for a future pick, I wouldn't be surprised to see them give that a try.
How can a team so far over the salary cap have such a bare cupboard? 6 guys making double digit millions next year: Nicolas Batum, Dwight Howard, Marvin Williams, Cody Zeller, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Kemba Walker. When GM Kupchak calls you up, which one of those guys do you want? Walker is the most productive and least expensive, so I wouldn't be surprised to see him get moved by the deadline. Howard is expiring (but also wildly overpaid) so he might net a coupla 2nd round picks but I don't see a pile o' booty coming back for the rest of them. Unless they move salary, they can't really sign anyone this summer.
For now: They're in a tough spot: not bad enough to tank but not good enough to threaten anyone in the post-season. I wouldn't be surprised to see them sneak into the playoffs in the East (although only the Cavs look to be vastly worse next year) with what they've got now. But I don't see any great improvement coming with this crew either. The middle is the worst place to be in the NBA and they are firmly there.
Draft picks: 11-ish
Signed for next season ($119.5m): PF Nicholas Batum, C Dwight Howard, SF Marvin Williams, C Cody Zeller, SF Micheal Kidd-Gilchrist, PG Kemba Walker, SG Jeremy Lamb, PF Frank Kaminsky, SG Malik Monk, SG Julyan Stone, PF Willy Hernangomez, SG Dawyne Bacon
Paige and Manthiang are on 2-way contracts. I don't see why they'd bring back MCW or Graham, both rather nondescript players.
They hired all-world GM Mitch Kupchak to run the show. His first choice will be their new coach. I would think they'd like David Fizdale but I wouldn't be surprised to see them bring in David Blatt. The Hornets look to be mediocre again next year (and already look overpaid for 2019-2020), either Fizdale to motivate or Blatt to innovate is the best bet.
Where do they go in the draft? At #11 they could be in line for Kevin Knox (Kentucky) but do they want to add another Kentucky scorer? I think he's gonna be good but the Hornets have a way of making talent turn to mush. They could probably use a center but all the best C's look to be off the board by then. They could reach for Robert Williams (Texas A&M) or Mitchell Robinson (high schooler) but if they could swap it for a future pick, I wouldn't be surprised to see them give that a try.
How can a team so far over the salary cap have such a bare cupboard? 6 guys making double digit millions next year: Nicolas Batum, Dwight Howard, Marvin Williams, Cody Zeller, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Kemba Walker. When GM Kupchak calls you up, which one of those guys do you want? Walker is the most productive and least expensive, so I wouldn't be surprised to see him get moved by the deadline. Howard is expiring (but also wildly overpaid) so he might net a coupla 2nd round picks but I don't see a pile o' booty coming back for the rest of them. Unless they move salary, they can't really sign anyone this summer.
For now: They're in a tough spot: not bad enough to tank but not good enough to threaten anyone in the post-season. I wouldn't be surprised to see them sneak into the playoffs in the East (although only the Cavs look to be vastly worse next year) with what they've got now. But I don't see any great improvement coming with this crew either. The middle is the worst place to be in the NBA and they are firmly there.
2018-19 Los Angeles Lakers
Draft picks: 25,47
Signed for next season ($39.1m): SF Luol Deng, PG Lonzo Ball, SG Brandom Ingram, SG Kyle Kuzma, PG Tyler Ennie, PG Josh Hart, C Ivaca Zubac, C Thomas Bryant
This summer's free agents: Brook Lopez, Kentavius Caldwell-Pope, Channing Frye, Isiah Thomas, Julius Randle, Travis Wear, Gary Payton, Andre Ingram
Randle has played his way into consideration for a re-up but I suspect he'll be a last minute option for the Lakers; if he's willing to wait, I'm guessing the Lakers will throw him a nice offer but if he's impatient he'll be playing somewhere else. Ingram was a fan favorite and could be low-cost roster filler (but I doubt we'll ever see that dude again). If the Lakers fail in their ability to lure in big time free agents, there is a chance that they bring back Isiah Thomas (and pretend like they got an all-star) but I'm guessing that's not their first choice. Payton is on a 2-way contract.
#25 isn't usually a sexy pick but the Lakers have drafted well over the years in this area (Kuzma, Larry Nance) so don't be surprised if they get a pretty good player here. Jalen Brunson (Villanova) might be there. And at #47 they could be in on Malik Newman (Kansas). I think both of those guys could be good pickups for them.
Okay, the ducks have been put in a row. First they go for Paul George (if the Thunder get rolled by the Jazz, you gotta think he'll be available and interested), then Lebron (I didn't think he'd leave Cleveland but the Pacers have made it clear the Cavs won't go too far this year), with Deandre Jordan, maybe Demarcus Cousins as the backup plan. I think they'll get George, still too early to call on any of the other guys. If they end up with JJ Reddick and Derrick Favors (and, say, Jahlil Okafor to go with Randle) instead, that actually seems like a pretty good crew to go with Ball, Ingram and Kuzma.
For now: well, right now there's not much there. But they'll look different by the end of the summer, I am sure.
Signed for next season ($39.1m): SF Luol Deng, PG Lonzo Ball, SG Brandom Ingram, SG Kyle Kuzma, PG Tyler Ennie, PG Josh Hart, C Ivaca Zubac, C Thomas Bryant
Randle has played his way into consideration for a re-up but I suspect he'll be a last minute option for the Lakers; if he's willing to wait, I'm guessing the Lakers will throw him a nice offer but if he's impatient he'll be playing somewhere else. Ingram was a fan favorite and could be low-cost roster filler (but I doubt we'll ever see that dude again). If the Lakers fail in their ability to lure in big time free agents, there is a chance that they bring back Isiah Thomas (and pretend like they got an all-star) but I'm guessing that's not their first choice. Payton is on a 2-way contract.
#25 isn't usually a sexy pick but the Lakers have drafted well over the years in this area (Kuzma, Larry Nance) so don't be surprised if they get a pretty good player here. Jalen Brunson (Villanova) might be there. And at #47 they could be in on Malik Newman (Kansas). I think both of those guys could be good pickups for them.
Okay, the ducks have been put in a row. First they go for Paul George (if the Thunder get rolled by the Jazz, you gotta think he'll be available and interested), then Lebron (I didn't think he'd leave Cleveland but the Pacers have made it clear the Cavs won't go too far this year), with Deandre Jordan, maybe Demarcus Cousins as the backup plan. I think they'll get George, still too early to call on any of the other guys. If they end up with JJ Reddick and Derrick Favors (and, say, Jahlil Okafor to go with Randle) instead, that actually seems like a pretty good crew to go with Ball, Ingram and Kuzma.
For now: well, right now there's not much there. But they'll look different by the end of the summer, I am sure.
2018-19 New York Knicks
2017-18: 29-53
Draft picks: (9-ish), 37
Signed for next season ($99.9m): C Enes Kanter, PF Joakim Noah, PG Tim Hardaway, SG Courtney Lee, PG Lance Thomas, PF Kristaps Porzingis, PG Ron Baker, PG Emmanual Mudiay, C Kyle O'Quinn, PG Frank Nkilitina, PG Trey Burke, PF Damyean Dotson
The Knicks still need a new coach, too. I gotta feeling it'll be Mark Jackson, but I wouldn't be surprised if Doc Rivers becomes available (with Austin in tow?). Expect them to make noise about Jay Wright of Villanova (he's way too smart for that, though occasional flirtation is how a guy like Wright gets a raise). I think David Blatt would be an interesting choice.
I think their biggest roster consideration is that Kanter and O'Quinn both have Player Options this summer and Joakim Noah still sucks. Seems like they could really use a big guy out of this draft. They could be in line for Mohammad Bamba (Texas) or Wendell Carter (Duke). Or if they feel confident about retaining their big guys, maybe they go after perimeter scoring with Collin Sexton (Alabama) or Mikal Bridges (Villanova). That 2nd round pick could yield Keita Bates-Diop (Ohio State), might be nice addition to the mix.
If Kanter and O'Quinn do opt out it will leave the Knicks enough money to shower Deandre Jordan in riches (is a Porzingis-Deandre line warming your cockles?). They've supposedly long had an interest in Derrick Favors, is this the year? If the Knicks retain Kanter they'd still have room for Danny Green or Kentavious Caldwell-Pope; or if O'Quinn leaves they could go after Alex Len or Jahlil Okafor or Nerlens Noel. The Knicks will need to sign someone, those New York teams are determined to spend more money than they have, so its a matter of star power--or at least pretending like the next Courtney Lee is actually the next Earl the Pearl.
For now: they don't have the money to bring in any of the big big stars. But they'll bring in somebody and pretend like he's the one. (He won't be) This is Porzingis's team and as long as the box office keeps cha-ching-ing, then the Knicks don't really have to be any good. So why bother? I expect if Prozingis stays healthy, that alone will put them in the 30-35 W's range next year. And that's probably fine for now.
Draft picks: (9-ish), 37
Signed for next season ($99.9m): C Enes Kanter, PF Joakim Noah, PG Tim Hardaway, SG Courtney Lee, PG Lance Thomas, PF Kristaps Porzingis, PG Ron Baker, PG Emmanual Mudiay, C Kyle O'Quinn, PG Frank Nkilitina, PG Trey Burke, PF Damyean Dotson
This summer's free agents: Jarret Jack, Michael Beasley, Troy Williams, Luke Kornet, Isiah Hicks
They may invite Beasley back (if Beasley struggles to hook on somewhere else, there's a 50/50 chance that the Knicks wildly overpay him), Kornet and Hicks are on 2-way deals and Williams will be a low cost option whether for the Knicks or someone else. Surely they're not bringing back Jack.The Knicks still need a new coach, too. I gotta feeling it'll be Mark Jackson, but I wouldn't be surprised if Doc Rivers becomes available (with Austin in tow?). Expect them to make noise about Jay Wright of Villanova (he's way too smart for that, though occasional flirtation is how a guy like Wright gets a raise). I think David Blatt would be an interesting choice.
I think their biggest roster consideration is that Kanter and O'Quinn both have Player Options this summer and Joakim Noah still sucks. Seems like they could really use a big guy out of this draft. They could be in line for Mohammad Bamba (Texas) or Wendell Carter (Duke). Or if they feel confident about retaining their big guys, maybe they go after perimeter scoring with Collin Sexton (Alabama) or Mikal Bridges (Villanova). That 2nd round pick could yield Keita Bates-Diop (Ohio State), might be nice addition to the mix.
If Kanter and O'Quinn do opt out it will leave the Knicks enough money to shower Deandre Jordan in riches (is a Porzingis-Deandre line warming your cockles?). They've supposedly long had an interest in Derrick Favors, is this the year? If the Knicks retain Kanter they'd still have room for Danny Green or Kentavious Caldwell-Pope; or if O'Quinn leaves they could go after Alex Len or Jahlil Okafor or Nerlens Noel. The Knicks will need to sign someone, those New York teams are determined to spend more money than they have, so its a matter of star power--or at least pretending like the next Courtney Lee is actually the next Earl the Pearl.
For now: they don't have the money to bring in any of the big big stars. But they'll bring in somebody and pretend like he's the one. (He won't be) This is Porzingis's team and as long as the box office keeps cha-ching-ing, then the Knicks don't really have to be any good. So why bother? I expect if Prozingis stays healthy, that alone will put them in the 30-35 W's range next year. And that's probably fine for now.
2018-19 Brooklyn Nets
2017-18: 28-54
Draft picks: 22,40,49
Signed for next season ($84.3m): SG Allen Crabbe, C Timofey Mozgov, PF Demarre Carroll, PG Jeremy Lin, PG D'Angelo Russell, PF Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, C Jarrett Allen, SG Caris LaVert, PG Spencer Dinwiddie, PG Isiah Whitehead (2-way: )
This summer's free agents: Jahlil Okafor, Nik Stauskus, Dante Cunningham, Quincy Acy, Joe Harris,
Milton Doyle, Jacob Wiley, James Webb.
I think the Nets made it pretty clear they had no interest in even trying to be interested in Okafor or Stauskus. Harris and Acy have had nice moments and could be useful low cost back of the rotation guys, Cunningham too (or he may be done). Doyle, Wiley and Webb are on 2-way contracts (funny sidenote: they also did my dad's taxes last year).
They still don't have a lottery pick (man, how long has it been?) but they do have three mid-range picks. I saw a mock draft that had them taking Jalen Brunson (Villanova), Devonte Graham (Kansas) and Hamadou Diallo (Kentucky); I have no idea if any of those guys will be useful to the Nets but might as well stick with blue blood programs, at least the kids will be ready for big time basketball.
And in free agency they really don't have a lot of money to spend (and who would want to go there anyway?). I suspect most of their cash goes to a handful of bench guys with one decent free agent: Danny Green, maybe, or Austin Rivers (will he want to stay in LA if they fire his dad?). Could they overpay Rudy Gay or Kosta Koufos or Kyle O'Quinn? Maybe. At any rate, there's no veteran rolling in to lead Brooklyn to the promised land any time soon, nor will they have a rookie sensation ready to blow up. I made the suggestion that the Mavericks should chase a bevy of recent draft busts to see if they can reform them, I guess I'd make the same suggestion to the Nets. Next summer they'll be back in the draft and they'll have money to spend. For now, they need to just give Russell, Crabbe, Hollis-Jefferson, LaVert and Allen pressure-free time to play ball. Not only is there no reason to think they'll be good next year--there's no reason for them to actually be good next year!
Draft picks: 22,40,49
Signed for next season ($84.3m): SG Allen Crabbe, C Timofey Mozgov, PF Demarre Carroll, PG Jeremy Lin, PG D'Angelo Russell, PF Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, C Jarrett Allen, SG Caris LaVert, PG Spencer Dinwiddie, PG Isiah Whitehead (2-way: )
Milton Doyle, Jacob Wiley, James Webb.
I think the Nets made it pretty clear they had no interest in even trying to be interested in Okafor or Stauskus. Harris and Acy have had nice moments and could be useful low cost back of the rotation guys, Cunningham too (or he may be done). Doyle, Wiley and Webb are on 2-way contracts (funny sidenote: they also did my dad's taxes last year).
They still don't have a lottery pick (man, how long has it been?) but they do have three mid-range picks. I saw a mock draft that had them taking Jalen Brunson (Villanova), Devonte Graham (Kansas) and Hamadou Diallo (Kentucky); I have no idea if any of those guys will be useful to the Nets but might as well stick with blue blood programs, at least the kids will be ready for big time basketball.
And in free agency they really don't have a lot of money to spend (and who would want to go there anyway?). I suspect most of their cash goes to a handful of bench guys with one decent free agent: Danny Green, maybe, or Austin Rivers (will he want to stay in LA if they fire his dad?). Could they overpay Rudy Gay or Kosta Koufos or Kyle O'Quinn? Maybe. At any rate, there's no veteran rolling in to lead Brooklyn to the promised land any time soon, nor will they have a rookie sensation ready to blow up. I made the suggestion that the Mavericks should chase a bevy of recent draft busts to see if they can reform them, I guess I'd make the same suggestion to the Nets. Next summer they'll be back in the draft and they'll have money to spend. For now, they need to just give Russell, Crabbe, Hollis-Jefferson, LaVert and Allen pressure-free time to play ball. Not only is there no reason to think they'll be good next year--there's no reason for them to actually be good next year!
2018-19 Chicago Bulls
2017-18: 27-55
Draft picks: (6-ish),22
Signed for next season ($61m): C Robin Lopez, C Omer Asik, C Christiano Felicio, PF Lari Markkanen, PG Justin Holiday, PG Kris Dunn, PG Cameron Payne, PG Jerian Grant, SF Bobby Portis, PG Denzel Valentine, PF Paul Zipser
This summer's free agents: Noah Vonleh, Zach LaVine, David Nwaba, Antonio Blakeney, Sean Kilpatrick, Ryan Arcidiacano
I think they re-sign LaVine and Nwaba. Blakeney and Arcidiacano are on 2-way contracts. I think they let Vonleh and Kilpatrick go.
I'm in on Markkanen and Portis but out on Payne and Grant (and Asik--keep gettin' dem checks!) and while I kinda dig the Bulls youth movement it's still too early to tell if Dunn, Valentine, Zipser, Felicio or LaVine will make for a reliable rotation. And there's not yet any shape to them so it's hard to tell who they should draft. They'll need size going forward so I would guess they'll take either Wendell Carter (Duke) or Mohammad Bamba (Texas). But if Trae Young (Oklahoma) falls to them, do they take another PG? They need all the scoring they can get and if they think he can mesh with LaVine and Portis, I say go for it. Then again, a disciplined scoring forward like Mikal Bridges (Villanova) or Kevin Knox (Kentucky) might fit quicker into the mix. I dunno, I guess they go the old 'best available' route and just draft for trade value rather than fit, since they need anything and everything.
And who do they pursue in free agency? Can they get Deandre Jordan or Melo? Would they want either of those guys? The thing about a youth movement is at some point you need to pair them with veterans that can lift them. But is that what Deandre is? Or Melo? Are they in the market for famous-for-the-sake of famous free agents? Could they really take a run at Hassan Whiteside or Kevin Love? Can they turn Enes Kanter into the ol' Joakim Noah? Are they looking for short term deals with vets or is there a cornerstone player they have their eye on? Can the Bulls even get big free agents? (Does Dwyane Wade really count as a 'good get' for them?) I dunno. With other young teams I feel like I can at least imagine a path for them but this Bulls team is still too green on the floor and probably too blue blood in the boardroom for their own good.
For now: No matter who they draft--any of those guys I mentioned could be a superstar and any of them could be out of the league in two years--I suspect next year is still about evaluating the youth and figuring which ones should stay and which ones need to go. But if they press their salary cap this summer rather than waiting til next summer, it could make a huge difference in whatever else they do. And if they steal Paul George and he's a hit, then they could be good over night; but if he doesn't fit in, then it could make for a really expensive nightmare. I got no crystal ball for these guys. But I would suggest marketing the youth rather than overpaying a hack.
Draft picks: (6-ish),22
Signed for next season ($61m): C Robin Lopez, C Omer Asik, C Christiano Felicio, PF Lari Markkanen, PG Justin Holiday, PG Kris Dunn, PG Cameron Payne, PG Jerian Grant, SF Bobby Portis, PG Denzel Valentine, PF Paul Zipser
I think they re-sign LaVine and Nwaba. Blakeney and Arcidiacano are on 2-way contracts. I think they let Vonleh and Kilpatrick go.
I'm in on Markkanen and Portis but out on Payne and Grant (and Asik--keep gettin' dem checks!) and while I kinda dig the Bulls youth movement it's still too early to tell if Dunn, Valentine, Zipser, Felicio or LaVine will make for a reliable rotation. And there's not yet any shape to them so it's hard to tell who they should draft. They'll need size going forward so I would guess they'll take either Wendell Carter (Duke) or Mohammad Bamba (Texas). But if Trae Young (Oklahoma) falls to them, do they take another PG? They need all the scoring they can get and if they think he can mesh with LaVine and Portis, I say go for it. Then again, a disciplined scoring forward like Mikal Bridges (Villanova) or Kevin Knox (Kentucky) might fit quicker into the mix. I dunno, I guess they go the old 'best available' route and just draft for trade value rather than fit, since they need anything and everything.
And who do they pursue in free agency? Can they get Deandre Jordan or Melo? Would they want either of those guys? The thing about a youth movement is at some point you need to pair them with veterans that can lift them. But is that what Deandre is? Or Melo? Are they in the market for famous-for-the-sake of famous free agents? Could they really take a run at Hassan Whiteside or Kevin Love? Can they turn Enes Kanter into the ol' Joakim Noah? Are they looking for short term deals with vets or is there a cornerstone player they have their eye on? Can the Bulls even get big free agents? (Does Dwyane Wade really count as a 'good get' for them?) I dunno. With other young teams I feel like I can at least imagine a path for them but this Bulls team is still too green on the floor and probably too blue blood in the boardroom for their own good.
For now: No matter who they draft--any of those guys I mentioned could be a superstar and any of them could be out of the league in two years--I suspect next year is still about evaluating the youth and figuring which ones should stay and which ones need to go. But if they press their salary cap this summer rather than waiting til next summer, it could make a huge difference in whatever else they do. And if they steal Paul George and he's a hit, then they could be good over night; but if he doesn't fit in, then it could make for a really expensive nightmare. I got no crystal ball for these guys. But I would suggest marketing the youth rather than overpaying a hack.
2018-19 Sacramento Kings
2017-18: 27-55
Draft picks: (7-ish),36
Signed for next season ($75.3m): PF Zach Randolph, SF Iman Shumpert, SF Bogdan Bogdanovich, C Kosta Koufos, PF Garrett Temple, PG De'Aaron Fox, PF Willie Cauley-Stein, SG Buddy Hield, SF Justin Jackson, PF Harry Giles, PF Skal Labisierre, PG Frank Mason
This summer's free agents: Vince Carter, Bruno Caboclo, JaKarr Sampson, Nigel Hayes, Jack Cooley
Sampson and Cooley are on 2-way contracts. Outside of filling out the roster, I don't see why the Kings would want to bring back any of these guys. Did they get enough of a look at Caboclo to think he can become something? (I saw him in an int'l game for Brazil and I thought he looked pretty good, but I'm not sure I've ever seen him in an NBA game--and it feels like he's been around forever!)
The Kings are in line for the 7th pick in the draft which takes them out of range of the cream of the crop. They seem set at big man though I think the best available at #7 projects to be Wendell Carter (Duke) or Mohammad Bamba (Texas). This may be seem like a bit of a reach but I'd recommend Kevin Knox (Kentucky), who should be a SF with a scoring touch (think Aaron Gordon but more reliable with the ball). #36 could net them Hamado Diallo (Kentucky) if they're keen keeping the Calipari soldiers coming.
The Kings are in a weird position: they've got a fine young nucleus surrounded by a raft of veterans for one more year. Then next summer the vets all move on and the young nucleus (Fox, Bogdanovich, Hield, Cauley-Stein, Labissiere, Justin Jackson, Mason, Harry Giles) and a heaping pile of cash serve as lures for big time free agents. So it sets up as one more year of training wheels then they make the big push for the future. Except that 3 of the 4 vets have player options this summer: Shumpert ($11m), Koufos ($8.7m), Temple ($8m). I don't see anyone giving Temple more money but Shumpert and Koufos might could find a raise out there if they're bold enough to seek it. I don't believe anyone has picked up their option yet. It makes a huge difference on the Kings' free agency moves if Shumpert and Koufos, two generally reliable minutes guys, leave now or later. If they stay then this summer is minimal, they add a lottery pick to the young core, let them suck for another year, then open up the vault for a superstar or two to join them; but if they go, then the Kings have less money and less supporting cast for a long term deal now. Also, the big available stars would seem to be Demarcus Cousins and Isiah Thomas (nope and nope); do they really want to take a run at Derrick Favors or Avery Bradley this summer? Or wait and try to add another lottery pick, then go after Klay Thompson or Tobias Harris? It all depends on the player options whether the Kings wait it out or dive right in.
For now: Whatever they do this summer, this team is a youth movement for the foreseeable future. Frankly I like all those guys and I'm curious about Harry Giles and whoever they get in this draft. I think Fox, Bogdanovic and Cauley-Stein make a helluva trio and they've got young depth, as well. Any of those guys are capable of making a leap and the way they grow together could make some real long term magic in Sacramento. That said, I fully expect them to struggle next year on their way to a top ten pick (for somebody else).
Draft picks: (7-ish),36
Signed for next season ($75.3m): PF Zach Randolph, SF Iman Shumpert, SF Bogdan Bogdanovich, C Kosta Koufos, PF Garrett Temple, PG De'Aaron Fox, PF Willie Cauley-Stein, SG Buddy Hield, SF Justin Jackson, PF Harry Giles, PF Skal Labisierre, PG Frank Mason
Sampson and Cooley are on 2-way contracts. Outside of filling out the roster, I don't see why the Kings would want to bring back any of these guys. Did they get enough of a look at Caboclo to think he can become something? (I saw him in an int'l game for Brazil and I thought he looked pretty good, but I'm not sure I've ever seen him in an NBA game--and it feels like he's been around forever!)
The Kings are in line for the 7th pick in the draft which takes them out of range of the cream of the crop. They seem set at big man though I think the best available at #7 projects to be Wendell Carter (Duke) or Mohammad Bamba (Texas). This may be seem like a bit of a reach but I'd recommend Kevin Knox (Kentucky), who should be a SF with a scoring touch (think Aaron Gordon but more reliable with the ball). #36 could net them Hamado Diallo (Kentucky) if they're keen keeping the Calipari soldiers coming.
The Kings are in a weird position: they've got a fine young nucleus surrounded by a raft of veterans for one more year. Then next summer the vets all move on and the young nucleus (Fox, Bogdanovich, Hield, Cauley-Stein, Labissiere, Justin Jackson, Mason, Harry Giles) and a heaping pile of cash serve as lures for big time free agents. So it sets up as one more year of training wheels then they make the big push for the future. Except that 3 of the 4 vets have player options this summer: Shumpert ($11m), Koufos ($8.7m), Temple ($8m). I don't see anyone giving Temple more money but Shumpert and Koufos might could find a raise out there if they're bold enough to seek it. I don't believe anyone has picked up their option yet. It makes a huge difference on the Kings' free agency moves if Shumpert and Koufos, two generally reliable minutes guys, leave now or later. If they stay then this summer is minimal, they add a lottery pick to the young core, let them suck for another year, then open up the vault for a superstar or two to join them; but if they go, then the Kings have less money and less supporting cast for a long term deal now. Also, the big available stars would seem to be Demarcus Cousins and Isiah Thomas (nope and nope); do they really want to take a run at Derrick Favors or Avery Bradley this summer? Or wait and try to add another lottery pick, then go after Klay Thompson or Tobias Harris? It all depends on the player options whether the Kings wait it out or dive right in.
For now: Whatever they do this summer, this team is a youth movement for the foreseeable future. Frankly I like all those guys and I'm curious about Harry Giles and whoever they get in this draft. I think Fox, Bogdanovic and Cauley-Stein make a helluva trio and they've got young depth, as well. Any of those guys are capable of making a leap and the way they grow together could make some real long term magic in Sacramento. That said, I fully expect them to struggle next year on their way to a top ten pick (for somebody else).
2018-19 Orlando Magic
2017-18: 25-57
Draft picks: (5-ish),35,41
Signed for next season ($84.5m): SG Evan Fournier, C Bismack Biyombo, C Nikola Vucevic, SF Terrence Ross, SG DJ Augustine, SF Jonathon Simmons, PG Shelvin Mack, SF Jonathon Isaac, SF Wesley Iwundu, C Khem Birch
This summer's free agents: Aaron Gordon, Mario Henzonja, Aaron Afflalo, Marreese Speights, Rodney Purvis, Jamel Artis
Well...I mean...they're gonna re-sign Aaron Gordon, right? He's been up and down but I'm willing to blame that on the horrendous team he found himself on, someone's gonna pay him and I betcha a dollar he looks better on...any other team in the league. Hezonja's had a rough time of it, too, but I'm a little more skeptical about him, his game comes and goes (how would he look in a Spurs uniform?). Afflalo and Speights can be probably be of more use on better teams. Artis is on a 2-way contract.
Their 5th worst record puts them just outside of the 4 can't miss prospects but should still net them Trae Young (Oklahoma) or Jaren Jackson (Michigan St) or Wendell Carter (Duke). Which is best for the Magic? I dunno, they need everything and will likely bungle anything as they have taken the 'league fuckup' title from the Kings. The 2nd round picks will likely be used on guards like maybe Tony Carr (Penn St) and Kerwin Roach (Texas) but they need depth all over the place.
Oh yeah, they need a coach. Might they bring back Doc Rivers with Austin Rivers to run the point for them? Uh....I dunno....that doesn't sound good but what else sounds better?
So now their lineup for next year looks something like: PG Augustine, SG Fournier, SF Simmons, PF Ross, C Vucevic with Mack, Isaac, Iwundu, Biyombo and their mystery lottery pick off the bench. I don't expect them to make any big moves in free agency. After re-signing Gordon, they'll have only enough money left for a veteran who can eat up minutes (Trevor Ariza, maybe) or an old face (does Vince Carter have interest in a second tour with the Magic?). No matter what happens I reckon the Magic will be bloody awful next year and they'll look just like this going into next summer.
Man, it wasn't that long ago they had a promising batch of talent, but they've managed to give up/give away Tobias Harris, Kyle O'Quinn, Elfrid Peyton, Victor Oladipo, Serge Ibaka, Brandon Jennings, Ersan Ilyasova, Dwayne Dedmon, Andrew Nicholson, E'Twaun Moore, Mo Harkless and Coach Vogel. I can live with moving on from all those guys but they didn't get much in return for any of them. Every time you think they have an eye for talent, they show no eye for value. Which brings us back to re-signing Aaron Gordon...I mean, they're not just let him go, right? Its not like Gordon is anybody's savior but he's clearly the best chance they have right now for a bust out star or a worthwhile trade chip.
For now: they need a coach (wouldn't be surprised to see Jeff Hornacek fall on this grenade), they need to hope the ping pong balls edge them upward in the draft order and then hope that Disney doesn't go out of business because if they have to live in Orlando they may as well have something to do. No matter what happens, I see no path to them being any good next year.
Draft picks: (5-ish),35,41
Signed for next season ($84.5m): SG Evan Fournier, C Bismack Biyombo, C Nikola Vucevic, SF Terrence Ross, SG DJ Augustine, SF Jonathon Simmons, PG Shelvin Mack, SF Jonathon Isaac, SF Wesley Iwundu, C Khem Birch
This summer's free agents: Aaron Gordon, Mario Henzonja, Aaron Afflalo, Marreese Speights, Rodney Purvis, Jamel Artis
Well...I mean...they're gonna re-sign Aaron Gordon, right? He's been up and down but I'm willing to blame that on the horrendous team he found himself on, someone's gonna pay him and I betcha a dollar he looks better on...any other team in the league. Hezonja's had a rough time of it, too, but I'm a little more skeptical about him, his game comes and goes (how would he look in a Spurs uniform?). Afflalo and Speights can be probably be of more use on better teams. Artis is on a 2-way contract.
Their 5th worst record puts them just outside of the 4 can't miss prospects but should still net them Trae Young (Oklahoma) or Jaren Jackson (Michigan St) or Wendell Carter (Duke). Which is best for the Magic? I dunno, they need everything and will likely bungle anything as they have taken the 'league fuckup' title from the Kings. The 2nd round picks will likely be used on guards like maybe Tony Carr (Penn St) and Kerwin Roach (Texas) but they need depth all over the place.
Oh yeah, they need a coach. Might they bring back Doc Rivers with Austin Rivers to run the point for them? Uh....I dunno....that doesn't sound good but what else sounds better?
So now their lineup for next year looks something like: PG Augustine, SG Fournier, SF Simmons, PF Ross, C Vucevic with Mack, Isaac, Iwundu, Biyombo and their mystery lottery pick off the bench. I don't expect them to make any big moves in free agency. After re-signing Gordon, they'll have only enough money left for a veteran who can eat up minutes (Trevor Ariza, maybe) or an old face (does Vince Carter have interest in a second tour with the Magic?). No matter what happens I reckon the Magic will be bloody awful next year and they'll look just like this going into next summer.
Man, it wasn't that long ago they had a promising batch of talent, but they've managed to give up/give away Tobias Harris, Kyle O'Quinn, Elfrid Peyton, Victor Oladipo, Serge Ibaka, Brandon Jennings, Ersan Ilyasova, Dwayne Dedmon, Andrew Nicholson, E'Twaun Moore, Mo Harkless and Coach Vogel. I can live with moving on from all those guys but they didn't get much in return for any of them. Every time you think they have an eye for talent, they show no eye for value. Which brings us back to re-signing Aaron Gordon...I mean, they're not just let him go, right? Its not like Gordon is anybody's savior but he's clearly the best chance they have right now for a bust out star or a worthwhile trade chip.
For now: they need a coach (wouldn't be surprised to see Jeff Hornacek fall on this grenade), they need to hope the ping pong balls edge them upward in the draft order and then hope that Disney doesn't go out of business because if they have to live in Orlando they may as well have something to do. No matter what happens, I see no path to them being any good next year.
2018-19 Atlanta Hawks
2017-18: 24-58
Draft picks: (4-ish),19,30,33
Signed for next season ($70.4m): SF Kent Bazemore, PG Denis Shroeder, PF Miles Plumlee, C Dewayne Dedmon, SF Taurean Prince, C John Collins, PF Deandre Bembre, PG Isiah Taylor, SG Tyler Dorsey, PF Tyler Cavanaugh
This summer's free agents: Malcolm Delaney, Josh Magette, Antonius Cleveland, Andrew White, Damion Lee, Jaylen Morris,
White is on a 2-way contract. I assume they'll let the rest move on. Delaney played good minutes for them but they've already got good depth at PG and can probably skew younger/cheaper still.
They're in line for one of the top four available in this draft: Deandre Ayton (Arizona), Marvin Bagley (Duke), Michael Porter (Missouri), Luke Doncic (Slovenia). I think Porter is the best fit for them, although I can see Bagley slipping to them. Whichever one they end up with will shape the rest of their draft. If they get Porter, a ball handler, then they can look for scoring at #19 (or make it a family affair with Johntay Porter). But if they get Bagley, they should look for ball handling (perhaps the tantalizing Anfernee Simmons or hope that Shea Gilgeuous-Alexander slips). And how those first two picks go will determine what they'll be looking for at #30 and #33: wing scoring (Grayson Allen (Duke), another perimeter ball handler (Jalen Bruson (Villanova), or big man (Brandon McCoy (UNLV)). However it shakes out, they should end up with one of the top talents in the draft and a raft of low cost youngsters to throw in the rotation.
They should take a run at Demarcus Cousins, long term contract at top level money. For some teams interested in Cousins I would suggest bigger money for one year (a la what the Sixers gave JJ Reddick last summer), but for the Hawks I'd say lock him up, give him whatever he wants and hope he doesn't kill the culture or alienate the fan base or never fully heal. And if the injury lingers, let him take next year off, come back strong in 2019-20. Until then, muddle along giving time to Prince, Collins, Bembre and whoever emerges from this draft. I'd suggest keeping Shroeder for now but if they can get a 1st round pick for him, take it. Hold on to Bazemore, Plumlee and Dedmon as the veteran core to hold the space for Cousins and let the youngsters take over. Atlanta has some money to spend, they can lure in a big time name, but they're not sweepstakes-level for any of the marquee names out there. I can see them making a big play for Will Barton or Jabari Parker. I think Cousins is a great fit for them, they should make him priority #1.
Draft picks: (4-ish),19,30,33
Signed for next season ($70.4m): SF Kent Bazemore, PG Denis Shroeder, PF Miles Plumlee, C Dewayne Dedmon, SF Taurean Prince, C John Collins, PF Deandre Bembre, PG Isiah Taylor, SG Tyler Dorsey, PF Tyler Cavanaugh
White is on a 2-way contract. I assume they'll let the rest move on. Delaney played good minutes for them but they've already got good depth at PG and can probably skew younger/cheaper still.
They're in line for one of the top four available in this draft: Deandre Ayton (Arizona), Marvin Bagley (Duke), Michael Porter (Missouri), Luke Doncic (Slovenia). I think Porter is the best fit for them, although I can see Bagley slipping to them. Whichever one they end up with will shape the rest of their draft. If they get Porter, a ball handler, then they can look for scoring at #19 (or make it a family affair with Johntay Porter). But if they get Bagley, they should look for ball handling (perhaps the tantalizing Anfernee Simmons or hope that Shea Gilgeuous-Alexander slips). And how those first two picks go will determine what they'll be looking for at #30 and #33: wing scoring (Grayson Allen (Duke), another perimeter ball handler (Jalen Bruson (Villanova), or big man (Brandon McCoy (UNLV)). However it shakes out, they should end up with one of the top talents in the draft and a raft of low cost youngsters to throw in the rotation.
They should take a run at Demarcus Cousins, long term contract at top level money. For some teams interested in Cousins I would suggest bigger money for one year (a la what the Sixers gave JJ Reddick last summer), but for the Hawks I'd say lock him up, give him whatever he wants and hope he doesn't kill the culture or alienate the fan base or never fully heal. And if the injury lingers, let him take next year off, come back strong in 2019-20. Until then, muddle along giving time to Prince, Collins, Bembre and whoever emerges from this draft. I'd suggest keeping Shroeder for now but if they can get a 1st round pick for him, take it. Hold on to Bazemore, Plumlee and Dedmon as the veteran core to hold the space for Cousins and let the youngsters take over. Atlanta has some money to spend, they can lure in a big time name, but they're not sweepstakes-level for any of the marquee names out there. I can see them making a big play for Will Barton or Jabari Parker. I think Cousins is a great fit for them, they should make him priority #1.
2018-19 Dallas Mavericks
2017-18: 24-58
Draft picks: (3-ish),34
Signed for next season ($69.6m): SF Harrison Barnes, SF Wesley Matthews, C Dwight Powell, PF Dirk Nowitzki, PG Dennis Smith, PG JJ Barea, PF Dorian Finney-Smith, PF Maxi Kleber
This summer's free agents: Nerlens Noel, Doug McDermott, Seth Curry, Salah Mejri, Yogi Ferrell, Jhonathon Motley, Kyle Collinsworth, Jalen Jones
I assume they'll bring back Ferrell (I don't think he interrupts the playing time of Dennis Smith) and Mejri (a lovable, reliable big man off the bench). Reports suggest they are looking forward to never seeing Nerlens Noel ever again. I'm not sure about McDermott (I still like him and I think he fits them). Motley and Jones are on 2-way contracts. Not sure about Curry or Collinsworth though the Mavs still have plenty of money and space to fill, if those guys are willing to not take raises, I wouldn't be surprised if the Mavs scooped some or all of them back up (and Aaron Harrison, as well).
In the upcoming draft they're in line for one of the big four: Deandre Ayton (Arizona), Marvin Bagley (Duke), Michael Porter (Missouri), Luke Doncic (Slovenia). Personally I favor Doncic and I think he fits the Mavs perfectly. In the 2nd round, I think Malik Newman (Kansas) has been undervalued and Shake Milton (SMU) is a local product with some upside that could jump into a revamped rotation.
After the 2015 season, they chose not to re-sign Tyson Chandler in an effort to make room for... (who was it? Deron Williams?). Chandler reacted with acrimony. That was after the Rajon Rondo trade which ripped apart a team that had the #1 offense in the league at the time of the trade. They've basically been adrift ever since. I've always wondered why the Mavs weren't better at attracting free agents since they exhibit enviable organizational stability: crazy rich owner who showers his players with love, a top notch (if not terribly likable) coach, a hall of fame cornerstone that's been through thick and thin in a modern metropolitan town that athletes seem to love all dedicated to winning championships. So why haven't they gotten the big names over the years? I always go back to the Chandler rebuke. They dissed one of their heroes for some social-climbing that didn't pay off and they've been out in the cold ever since.
I would suggest their strategy for now ought to be stockpiling the recent draft "busts": Julius Randle, Jabari Parker, Aaron Gordon, Nik Stauskus, Jahlil Okafor, Marcus Smart, Dante Exum, Noah Vonleh and more could all be available this summer. Some of those guys are done, some just need a second chance, which are which? If I were Mark Cuban, I'd give Coach Carlisle a shot at figuring that out. Rather than going for the big names (Lebron ain't walking through that door, folks), they could be the second-chance home for the much maligned (Okafor, Parker), the misunderstood (Vonleh, Stauskus), the underappreciated (Smart, Randle). I'd go big for Gordon (I assume the Magic will re-sign him but who knows what the fuck they're doing?), Randle and Smart. Then Parker and Okafor and I'd bring back McDermott. Even though they have plenty of money to spend, a low cost youth movement gives them a chip on their shoulder and could become a fan favorite while keeping them flexible for next summer. If Carlisle can mold these athletes into a unit, then the post-Dirk years could bring back some excitement and be a landing spot for next summer's big free agents. That said, I'm sure that won't happen. The Mavs will obsequiously lunge at Lebron and PG and KD and Deandre, maybe even Kanter or Favors or Reddick, but I'm betting they mostly strike out. The twisted-youth movement probably doesn't sound like much fun to Carlisle or Cuban but it could be a lot of fun for the fans and a coupla those guys I mentioned above will turn into something (Parker, in particular, could still be a superstar that nobody's noticed yet) and it could rejuvenate the franchise.
For now: The Mavs are a known commodity with a well-respected coach and a lot of money to spend. But I think they'll need one more year to build the environment they seek. There'll be a lot of low hanging fruit this summer, I suggest they load up on that for now. But they won't. The Mavs will be hanging around the airport hotel bar trying to pick up the fancy ladies that they got no shot with. I got a feeling that Dirk's final year will be less bang, more whimper and that's too bad.
Draft picks: (3-ish),34
Signed for next season ($69.6m): SF Harrison Barnes, SF Wesley Matthews, C Dwight Powell, PF Dirk Nowitzki, PG Dennis Smith, PG JJ Barea, PF Dorian Finney-Smith, PF Maxi Kleber
I assume they'll bring back Ferrell (I don't think he interrupts the playing time of Dennis Smith) and Mejri (a lovable, reliable big man off the bench). Reports suggest they are looking forward to never seeing Nerlens Noel ever again. I'm not sure about McDermott (I still like him and I think he fits them). Motley and Jones are on 2-way contracts. Not sure about Curry or Collinsworth though the Mavs still have plenty of money and space to fill, if those guys are willing to not take raises, I wouldn't be surprised if the Mavs scooped some or all of them back up (and Aaron Harrison, as well).
In the upcoming draft they're in line for one of the big four: Deandre Ayton (Arizona), Marvin Bagley (Duke), Michael Porter (Missouri), Luke Doncic (Slovenia). Personally I favor Doncic and I think he fits the Mavs perfectly. In the 2nd round, I think Malik Newman (Kansas) has been undervalued and Shake Milton (SMU) is a local product with some upside that could jump into a revamped rotation.
I would suggest their strategy for now ought to be stockpiling the recent draft "busts": Julius Randle, Jabari Parker, Aaron Gordon, Nik Stauskus, Jahlil Okafor, Marcus Smart, Dante Exum, Noah Vonleh and more could all be available this summer. Some of those guys are done, some just need a second chance, which are which? If I were Mark Cuban, I'd give Coach Carlisle a shot at figuring that out. Rather than going for the big names (Lebron ain't walking through that door, folks), they could be the second-chance home for the much maligned (Okafor, Parker), the misunderstood (Vonleh, Stauskus), the underappreciated (Smart, Randle). I'd go big for Gordon (I assume the Magic will re-sign him but who knows what the fuck they're doing?), Randle and Smart. Then Parker and Okafor and I'd bring back McDermott. Even though they have plenty of money to spend, a low cost youth movement gives them a chip on their shoulder and could become a fan favorite while keeping them flexible for next summer. If Carlisle can mold these athletes into a unit, then the post-Dirk years could bring back some excitement and be a landing spot for next summer's big free agents. That said, I'm sure that won't happen. The Mavs will obsequiously lunge at Lebron and PG and KD and Deandre, maybe even Kanter or Favors or Reddick, but I'm betting they mostly strike out. The twisted-youth movement probably doesn't sound like much fun to Carlisle or Cuban but it could be a lot of fun for the fans and a coupla those guys I mentioned above will turn into something (Parker, in particular, could still be a superstar that nobody's noticed yet) and it could rejuvenate the franchise.
For now: The Mavs are a known commodity with a well-respected coach and a lot of money to spend. But I think they'll need one more year to build the environment they seek. There'll be a lot of low hanging fruit this summer, I suggest they load up on that for now. But they won't. The Mavs will be hanging around the airport hotel bar trying to pick up the fancy ladies that they got no shot with. I got a feeling that Dirk's final year will be less bang, more whimper and that's too bad.
2018-19 Memphis Grizzlies
2017-18: 22-60
Draft picks: (2-ish),32
Signed for next season ($103.2m): PG Mike Conley, C Marc Gasol, SF Chandler Parsons, SF JaMychal Green, SF Ben McLemore, PF Jarrell Martin, SF Wayne Selden, PF Deyonta Davis, PG Andrew Harrison, C Ivan Rabb, SG Dillon Brooks
This summer's free agents: Tyreke Evans, Mario Chalmers, Myke Henry, MarShon Brooks, Omari Johnson, Kobi Simmons
I'm pretty sure their plan is to re-sign Evans (to the MLE?) and perhaps Chalmers (they need Guard depth). Simmons and Henry are on 2-way contracts. I can't imagine they're serious about Brooks (and I don't even know who Omari Johnson is).
The Grizzlies need a coach first. I suspect Bickerstaff will be in the running but I haven't heard of him having the job. The usual suspects: Mark Jackson (doesn't seem like a fit), Jason Kidd (I dunno, could work, I guess), Jeff Hornacek (after a coupla years with schizophrenic Suns and discombobulated Knicks, hard to tell what kind of coach he actually is), Frank Vogel (bingo! I think he could be a good fit with this traditionally defense-first team), David Blatt (could bring some boring to the Memphis sideline which might not be a bad thing), Mike Budenholzer seems to be out there, Vinny Del Negro is sniffing around and I still fully expect to see Doc Rivers looking for a job, too. (I think I'm right in saying there's no interest in Tubby Smith...?) I can see Blatt or Del Negro here but I think Vogel is probably the guy.
Starting lineup should be something like: PG Conley, SG Brooks, SF Parsons, PF Davis, C Gasol. Ugh! That doesn't look good at all. If Conley is healthy then they may have something to work with, but if not, they'll have nothing all over again. The Grizzlies are hamstrung by the Parsons contract (man, if GM Chris Wallace could convince him to retire, he'd have my vote for Executive of the Year) and Gasol, too (we're used to couples that hate each other but try to stay together, but this is one of those true-love pairings where we all know that neither is any good for the other, a merciful parting would improve the lots of Gasol and the Grizzlies). They're paying so much money to Conley and Parsons and Gasol that there's just no room for improvement until those three guys are gone--and if they're not healthy then, man, they got an expensive pile of nothing.
Draft picks: (2-ish),32
Signed for next season ($103.2m): PG Mike Conley, C Marc Gasol, SF Chandler Parsons, SF JaMychal Green, SF Ben McLemore, PF Jarrell Martin, SF Wayne Selden, PF Deyonta Davis, PG Andrew Harrison, C Ivan Rabb, SG Dillon Brooks
This summer's free agents: Tyreke Evans, Mario Chalmers, Myke Henry, MarShon Brooks, Omari Johnson, Kobi Simmons
I'm pretty sure their plan is to re-sign Evans (to the MLE?) and perhaps Chalmers (they need Guard depth). Simmons and Henry are on 2-way contracts. I can't imagine they're serious about Brooks (and I don't even know who Omari Johnson is).
The Grizzlies need a coach first. I suspect Bickerstaff will be in the running but I haven't heard of him having the job. The usual suspects: Mark Jackson (doesn't seem like a fit), Jason Kidd (I dunno, could work, I guess), Jeff Hornacek (after a coupla years with schizophrenic Suns and discombobulated Knicks, hard to tell what kind of coach he actually is), Frank Vogel (bingo! I think he could be a good fit with this traditionally defense-first team), David Blatt (could bring some boring to the Memphis sideline which might not be a bad thing), Mike Budenholzer seems to be out there, Vinny Del Negro is sniffing around and I still fully expect to see Doc Rivers looking for a job, too. (I think I'm right in saying there's no interest in Tubby Smith...?) I can see Blatt or Del Negro here but I think Vogel is probably the guy.
They're odds-on favorite for the #2 pick in the draft, which will leave them either Deandre Ayton (Arizona) or Marvin Bagley (Duke). I'd suggest instead Michael Porter (Missouri), who could be the next Ben Simmons, or Luka Doncic (Slovenia), a world-tested SF who does it all. No one will point and laugh if they end up with Ayton or Bagley, but they need scoring so badly, that I'd suggest going smaller. They could also employ the trade-back-for-more-picks thing since 1) they need everything and 2) next 2 years is all about Conley, Parsons and Gasol, not this year's draft. They could go for an abundance of cheaper contracts all over the roster and younger bodies all over the floor just to see what works out. This strategy kinda depends on their coach, which needs to come before the draft.
Starting lineup should be something like: PG Conley, SG Brooks, SF Parsons, PF Davis, C Gasol. Ugh! That doesn't look good at all. If Conley is healthy then they may have something to work with, but if not, they'll have nothing all over again. The Grizzlies are hamstrung by the Parsons contract (man, if GM Chris Wallace could convince him to retire, he'd have my vote for Executive of the Year) and Gasol, too (we're used to couples that hate each other but try to stay together, but this is one of those true-love pairings where we all know that neither is any good for the other, a merciful parting would improve the lots of Gasol and the Grizzlies). They're paying so much money to Conley and Parsons and Gasol that there's just no room for improvement until those three guys are gone--and if they're not healthy then, man, they got an expensive pile of nothing.
They need a coach, they need a good draft and they need good health. Unless they trade Parsons (who wants him?) or Gasol (trade their sweetheart? No way!), then there's no room for free agents this summer. They could take a run at lower priced leftovers like say, Rodney Hood, Mario Hezonja, Doug McDermott or Nik Stauskus, because they need perimeter scoring in the worst way. But none of those guys are transformative.
For now: I just don't see how anything good happens for this team. If Conley is healthy, they might return to being not awful, but that's as good as it gets, I think. They can't even start to rebuild until they have fully metabolized the Parsons and Gasol contracts. And flyers on guys like JaMychel Green, Andrew Harrison and Ben McLemore haven't worked out, but a coupla more years of flyers is all they have to go on. Who wants to coach this team? This is a dead spot on any future resume. I think Frank Vogel could be the guy but Memphis cannot be high on his wish list (hmmm, how badly does Eric Musselman want back in the NBA?).
2018-19 Phoenix Suns
2017-18: 21-61
Draft picks: (1-ish),16,31,59
Signed for next season ($78.4m): PG Brandon Knight, C Tyson Chandler, PF TJ Warren, SF Jared Dudley, SF Josh Jackson, PF Alan Williams, PF Dragan Bender, PG Devin Booker, SG Troy Daniels, PF Marquese Chriss, PG Tyler Ulis, SG Davon Reed
This summer's free agents: Alex Len, Elfrid Peyton, Danuel House, Shaq Harrison, Alec Peters
House and Peters are on 2-way contracts. I assume they will not re-sign Len, Peyton or Harrison. They'll have a top pick in this draft, another 1st rounder and a top 2nd rounder, those should probably replace anything they'll be losing here, leaving plenty of cash for a splashy free agent signing (Demarcus Cousins, anyone?).
Okay, what do they do what that (potentially) top pick? Personally I prefer Marvin Bagley (Duke) but I assume the Suns would take Deandre Ayton (Arizona). Gary Trent (Duke) could be there at #16 to give them a combo that could hit the rotation right away. #31 should leave some interesting possibilities: Keita Bates-Diop (Ohio State) or Mykhalovich (Kansas) or Tony Carr (Penn State); kinda depends on if they can move Knight and/or Chandler. #59 is probably best used on European talent.
First thing they need to do is hire a coach. Mike Budenholzer has reportedly already withdrawn his name from consideration, leaving Jason Kidd as the probable top of the list. Ehhh, Kidd has a history with the Suns (I suppose that'll be worth something) but its kinda hard to assess what kind of coach he'd be based on his previous stints with the Nets and Bucks. (He's already traded Brandon Knight once and won a championship with Tyson Chandler, so can we say we already know where his personnel thinking lies?) There are always a handful of assistants out there looking for a gig, but the rest of the free agent coaches include Mark Jackson (I don't see that happening), David Blatt (I think Blatt can be a good coach but I wouldn't suggest going to Phoneix to find out), Jeff Hornacek (uhhh, no, that ain't happening), Frank Vogel (maybe, Phoenix isn't the same empty cupboard that Orlando was), Vinny Del Negro is reportedly interested (not a bad choice, actually, history has been rather kind to him) and everyone will mention Villanova's Jay Wright (if I were Wright I'd stay at Nova for at least one more contract--winning is better than money). If not Kidd, then I can see David Fizdale getting this gig. His tough love style may be the best thing for Booker, Jackson and Ayton and perhaps he can still get something out of Chriss and Bender.
Next year's lineup should look something: PG Booker, SG Knight, SF Jackson, PF Warren, C Chandler with Dudley, Bender and Chriss off the bench, in addition to one or two rookies, and whichever free agents they can lure in.
Free agents: yeah, I said it, they should go for Demarcus Cousins. He's a special kinda cat, he needs the ball and the attention at all times. The Suns are currently Devin Booker's team but I think Booker and Cousins can share. If they can get that combo to work then the development of Chriss and Bender (I'm not a fan of either of those guys, incidentally), Jackson and this year's lottery pick becomes the focus for the next 2-3 years. Also, I'd take a run at Jusuf Nurkic, tough inside, can score and defend and play within a team concept. (Can you imagine Cousins and Nurkic together? Oof! No one wants to play against that lineup) I don't see Lebron or Chris Paul being interested pulling the banana boat into Phoenix, nor will the Suns be in the mix for a Kawhi trade or luring Durant or Paul George in. (Hmmmmm....would they be interested in pursuing Chris Bosh? If Bosh really wants to play it may have to be with a bottom feeder team like Phoenix) But Cousins can have his run of the place and they should have money to throw at him.
For now: even with a new coach, a new superstar lottery pick, a new free agent stud and a coupla promising youngsters already in-house, there's no reason to think the Suns will be any good next year. Jackson and Chriss are still too unformed to be real contributors. That said, the league looks to be in flux right now, and the Suns could strike gold with the right mix of elements.
Draft picks: (1-ish),16,31,59
Signed for next season ($78.4m): PG Brandon Knight, C Tyson Chandler, PF TJ Warren, SF Jared Dudley, SF Josh Jackson, PF Alan Williams, PF Dragan Bender, PG Devin Booker, SG Troy Daniels, PF Marquese Chriss, PG Tyler Ulis, SG Davon Reed
This summer's free agents: Alex Len, Elfrid Peyton, Danuel House, Shaq Harrison, Alec Peters
House and Peters are on 2-way contracts. I assume they will not re-sign Len, Peyton or Harrison. They'll have a top pick in this draft, another 1st rounder and a top 2nd rounder, those should probably replace anything they'll be losing here, leaving plenty of cash for a splashy free agent signing (Demarcus Cousins, anyone?).
Okay, what do they do what that (potentially) top pick? Personally I prefer Marvin Bagley (Duke) but I assume the Suns would take Deandre Ayton (Arizona). Gary Trent (Duke) could be there at #16 to give them a combo that could hit the rotation right away. #31 should leave some interesting possibilities: Keita Bates-Diop (Ohio State) or Mykhalovich (Kansas) or Tony Carr (Penn State); kinda depends on if they can move Knight and/or Chandler. #59 is probably best used on European talent.
First thing they need to do is hire a coach. Mike Budenholzer has reportedly already withdrawn his name from consideration, leaving Jason Kidd as the probable top of the list. Ehhh, Kidd has a history with the Suns (I suppose that'll be worth something) but its kinda hard to assess what kind of coach he'd be based on his previous stints with the Nets and Bucks. (He's already traded Brandon Knight once and won a championship with Tyson Chandler, so can we say we already know where his personnel thinking lies?) There are always a handful of assistants out there looking for a gig, but the rest of the free agent coaches include Mark Jackson (I don't see that happening), David Blatt (I think Blatt can be a good coach but I wouldn't suggest going to Phoneix to find out), Jeff Hornacek (uhhh, no, that ain't happening), Frank Vogel (maybe, Phoenix isn't the same empty cupboard that Orlando was), Vinny Del Negro is reportedly interested (not a bad choice, actually, history has been rather kind to him) and everyone will mention Villanova's Jay Wright (if I were Wright I'd stay at Nova for at least one more contract--winning is better than money). If not Kidd, then I can see David Fizdale getting this gig. His tough love style may be the best thing for Booker, Jackson and Ayton and perhaps he can still get something out of Chriss and Bender.
Next year's lineup should look something: PG Booker, SG Knight, SF Jackson, PF Warren, C Chandler with Dudley, Bender and Chriss off the bench, in addition to one or two rookies, and whichever free agents they can lure in.
Free agents: yeah, I said it, they should go for Demarcus Cousins. He's a special kinda cat, he needs the ball and the attention at all times. The Suns are currently Devin Booker's team but I think Booker and Cousins can share. If they can get that combo to work then the development of Chriss and Bender (I'm not a fan of either of those guys, incidentally), Jackson and this year's lottery pick becomes the focus for the next 2-3 years. Also, I'd take a run at Jusuf Nurkic, tough inside, can score and defend and play within a team concept. (Can you imagine Cousins and Nurkic together? Oof! No one wants to play against that lineup) I don't see Lebron or Chris Paul being interested pulling the banana boat into Phoenix, nor will the Suns be in the mix for a Kawhi trade or luring Durant or Paul George in. (Hmmmmm....would they be interested in pursuing Chris Bosh? If Bosh really wants to play it may have to be with a bottom feeder team like Phoenix) But Cousins can have his run of the place and they should have money to throw at him.
For now: even with a new coach, a new superstar lottery pick, a new free agent stud and a coupla promising youngsters already in-house, there's no reason to think the Suns will be any good next year. Jackson and Chriss are still too unformed to be real contributors. That said, the league looks to be in flux right now, and the Suns could strike gold with the right mix of elements.
Monday, April 16, 2018
2017-18 NBA Playoffs (Game One Reactions)
Spurs 92-113 Warriors
The Warriors kinda took a while to get going but their defense got them in the game and Klay and Durant were both too money for the Spurs to keep up with. I thought the Spurs old timers unit (Pau, Gay, Manu, Parker) were generally better than the starters, which is not a good sign. The Spurs just didn't shoot well, they never had any kind of edge, and Patty Mills marking Kevin Durant is not gonna work. I thought the Spurs would test the Warriors but I don't think so--which may be dangerous for the Warriors. Outside of Durant, Klay and McGee (and moments of Draymond), I really didn't think the rest of the team was that great, the ball movement isn't there yet and stifling Patty Mills and Tony Parker is not like going against Lillard or Westbrook. The Warriors need to get punched in the face but I don't think the Spurs are the team to do it, just not enough offense to keep up. I'll take the Warriors in 5 (maybe 4), could be Popovich has something brilliant up his sleeve but at this point even pulling Kawhi out of a hat wouldn't beat the Warriors.
Wizards 106-114 Raptors
The Raptors looked good enough for a Game One, though they let the game get closer than they should have in the 4th. Wall is such a speed demon that he controls all when he's in a groove but he still struggles to score and if too much of the load falls to guys like Oubre or Porter than the Wizards are in trouble. I thought Morris was great and Wall and Beal had moments but the rest of the cast didn't do much (I normally wouldn't say this but, man, seemed like the refs were going after Gortat, a few phantom fouls on him). The Raptors were okay, they can play better but considering their usual tentative play in opening games, this was a good W for them. And probably an indication that they are indeed way better than the Wizards. We'll see, but I'd be surprised if the Wizards won Game Two.
Heat 103-130 Sixers
The Heat were up at halftime and I couldn't figure out why. The game stayed close through much of the 3rd quarter, then the Sixers just ran off and left them. That made sense to me. It felt like Simmons, Saric and Belinelli were getting anything they wanted and Ilyasova and Covington were contributing, too. And for the Heat, Olynyk played well, James Johnson had moments and Wade pitched in from the bench, but otherwise they never really got anything going. Felt like the Sixers should've pounded them from beginning to end and though it looks like they did, this game was really a lot closer than the score suggests. I think the Sixers win Game Two (wouldn't be surprised to see the Heat regroup and take both games in Miami, though).
Pelicans 97-95 Blazers
I thought this was a tough one to figure: I thought the Blazers were awful--like really awful--and still could've (maybe should've) won the game. So were the Pelicans lucky to pull this out? Or can they keep stifling the Blazers? I honestly can't tell. I think they're the two closest matched teams in the post-season, wouldn't be surprised if they play 6 more games just like this one. I gotta think the Blazers will win Game Two.
Bucks 107-113 (OT) Celtics
I think every game is gonna be tight in the 4th quarter, chippy as hell, back and forth and I think I still like the Bucks to pull out the series. Without Kyrie to build a lead and Smart to do some dirty work, I just don't think the Celtics are equipped to handle this. The Bucks are better in the mud and as great a coach as Stevens is, I don't think his mind works in un-perfect conditions. I think all of these games are gonna come down to luck and tenacity and I think the Bucks are built to work harder in those conditions. Doesn't mean they'll win but I picked them to win the series and I'll stick with them. I wouldn't be surprised if Game Two goes into OT, as well.
Pacers 98-80 Cavs
I didn't watch the Pacers once this year (thanks, Obama!) but my gut is that how they played today is who they are: they attack the basket, they play tight D and they scramble for loose balls. They're built around Oladipo and they know who they are. So for them I don't think today was any kind out of body experience. Lebron tends to like to blast through the 1st round, he knows his own team's strengths and weaknesses and after a long regular season, he knows how to size up a soft 1st round opponent and take them out quickly. So today's performance was...uh....not good. They looked kinda Raptors-like out there today against a Pacer team that was just playing their game. I thought the Cavs would be ready for action and have the Pacers' number, but that is not what happened. Not a good sign for the Cavs. I wanna say I'd be shocked if the Pacers took Game Two...but I wouldn't.
Jazz 108-116 Thunder
This one got much closer at the end than this game actually was (man, when Alec Burks came off the bench and got hot at the last minute it reminded me that he had fallen so far out of the Jazz rotation that I had to be reminded he still existed). This is a match between the prim and proper kid that shows up for school every day and is the teacher's pet but doesn't actually learn anything (Jazz) against the slackass student who blows everything off but is good at taking tests (Thunder). This is test time and last night's game was the perfect example: Jazz got out to a big lead, Thunder came back and were up buy halftime, then dominated the 2nd half so thoroughly that they let the Jazz come back and make it close in the end. The Jazz started well and finished well but during the bulk of the game the Thunder were too much for them. I expect all the games to be like this, with the Jazz stealing one or two are home. I expect the Thunder to take Game Two (though don't be surprised if they fail to cover the spread if they're up by 20 with 3 minutes to go).
Wolves 101-104 Rockets
There's a moment early in this game that says it all about Chris Paul's performance: Paul jukes his man in the lane, steps out to get a wide open 15 footer, then at the last second twists his whole body around to pass to Harden, who is double covered and loses the ball out of bounds. I told ya Paul sucked in the playoffs but I didn't expect to suck this early. And while I don't expect Paul to be this bad for the rest of this series, I also don't expect Clint Capela to go for 24 and 12 every night either. This good shouldn't have been this close when you consider that the Wolves didn't even play good! And Chris Webber is right: why the hell Towns standing over in the corner all the time? And why does Jamal Crawford get so much playing time? The fact that Butler and Crawford are the only Wolves with (+) minutes just shows how flawed the +/- system is, because they were both terrible in this game and the idea that the Wolves prospered in their presence is an utter fluke. (I used to love the Wolves but they've been Thibbed, now they're the most boring, most frustrating team in the league *sigh*) I'm still convinced the Rockets are gonna fail but not yet. I reckon they'll win Game Two by a wide margin.
The Warriors kinda took a while to get going but their defense got them in the game and Klay and Durant were both too money for the Spurs to keep up with. I thought the Spurs old timers unit (Pau, Gay, Manu, Parker) were generally better than the starters, which is not a good sign. The Spurs just didn't shoot well, they never had any kind of edge, and Patty Mills marking Kevin Durant is not gonna work. I thought the Spurs would test the Warriors but I don't think so--which may be dangerous for the Warriors. Outside of Durant, Klay and McGee (and moments of Draymond), I really didn't think the rest of the team was that great, the ball movement isn't there yet and stifling Patty Mills and Tony Parker is not like going against Lillard or Westbrook. The Warriors need to get punched in the face but I don't think the Spurs are the team to do it, just not enough offense to keep up. I'll take the Warriors in 5 (maybe 4), could be Popovich has something brilliant up his sleeve but at this point even pulling Kawhi out of a hat wouldn't beat the Warriors.
Wizards 106-114 Raptors
The Raptors looked good enough for a Game One, though they let the game get closer than they should have in the 4th. Wall is such a speed demon that he controls all when he's in a groove but he still struggles to score and if too much of the load falls to guys like Oubre or Porter than the Wizards are in trouble. I thought Morris was great and Wall and Beal had moments but the rest of the cast didn't do much (I normally wouldn't say this but, man, seemed like the refs were going after Gortat, a few phantom fouls on him). The Raptors were okay, they can play better but considering their usual tentative play in opening games, this was a good W for them. And probably an indication that they are indeed way better than the Wizards. We'll see, but I'd be surprised if the Wizards won Game Two.
Heat 103-130 Sixers
The Heat were up at halftime and I couldn't figure out why. The game stayed close through much of the 3rd quarter, then the Sixers just ran off and left them. That made sense to me. It felt like Simmons, Saric and Belinelli were getting anything they wanted and Ilyasova and Covington were contributing, too. And for the Heat, Olynyk played well, James Johnson had moments and Wade pitched in from the bench, but otherwise they never really got anything going. Felt like the Sixers should've pounded them from beginning to end and though it looks like they did, this game was really a lot closer than the score suggests. I think the Sixers win Game Two (wouldn't be surprised to see the Heat regroup and take both games in Miami, though).
Pelicans 97-95 Blazers
I thought this was a tough one to figure: I thought the Blazers were awful--like really awful--and still could've (maybe should've) won the game. So were the Pelicans lucky to pull this out? Or can they keep stifling the Blazers? I honestly can't tell. I think they're the two closest matched teams in the post-season, wouldn't be surprised if they play 6 more games just like this one. I gotta think the Blazers will win Game Two.
Bucks 107-113 (OT) Celtics
I think every game is gonna be tight in the 4th quarter, chippy as hell, back and forth and I think I still like the Bucks to pull out the series. Without Kyrie to build a lead and Smart to do some dirty work, I just don't think the Celtics are equipped to handle this. The Bucks are better in the mud and as great a coach as Stevens is, I don't think his mind works in un-perfect conditions. I think all of these games are gonna come down to luck and tenacity and I think the Bucks are built to work harder in those conditions. Doesn't mean they'll win but I picked them to win the series and I'll stick with them. I wouldn't be surprised if Game Two goes into OT, as well.
Pacers 98-80 Cavs
I didn't watch the Pacers once this year (thanks, Obama!) but my gut is that how they played today is who they are: they attack the basket, they play tight D and they scramble for loose balls. They're built around Oladipo and they know who they are. So for them I don't think today was any kind out of body experience. Lebron tends to like to blast through the 1st round, he knows his own team's strengths and weaknesses and after a long regular season, he knows how to size up a soft 1st round opponent and take them out quickly. So today's performance was...uh....not good. They looked kinda Raptors-like out there today against a Pacer team that was just playing their game. I thought the Cavs would be ready for action and have the Pacers' number, but that is not what happened. Not a good sign for the Cavs. I wanna say I'd be shocked if the Pacers took Game Two...but I wouldn't.
Jazz 108-116 Thunder
This one got much closer at the end than this game actually was (man, when Alec Burks came off the bench and got hot at the last minute it reminded me that he had fallen so far out of the Jazz rotation that I had to be reminded he still existed). This is a match between the prim and proper kid that shows up for school every day and is the teacher's pet but doesn't actually learn anything (Jazz) against the slackass student who blows everything off but is good at taking tests (Thunder). This is test time and last night's game was the perfect example: Jazz got out to a big lead, Thunder came back and were up buy halftime, then dominated the 2nd half so thoroughly that they let the Jazz come back and make it close in the end. The Jazz started well and finished well but during the bulk of the game the Thunder were too much for them. I expect all the games to be like this, with the Jazz stealing one or two are home. I expect the Thunder to take Game Two (though don't be surprised if they fail to cover the spread if they're up by 20 with 3 minutes to go).
Wolves 101-104 Rockets
There's a moment early in this game that says it all about Chris Paul's performance: Paul jukes his man in the lane, steps out to get a wide open 15 footer, then at the last second twists his whole body around to pass to Harden, who is double covered and loses the ball out of bounds. I told ya Paul sucked in the playoffs but I didn't expect to suck this early. And while I don't expect Paul to be this bad for the rest of this series, I also don't expect Clint Capela to go for 24 and 12 every night either. This good shouldn't have been this close when you consider that the Wolves didn't even play good! And Chris Webber is right: why the hell Towns standing over in the corner all the time? And why does Jamal Crawford get so much playing time? The fact that Butler and Crawford are the only Wolves with (+) minutes just shows how flawed the +/- system is, because they were both terrible in this game and the idea that the Wolves prospered in their presence is an utter fluke. (I used to love the Wolves but they've been Thibbed, now they're the most boring, most frustrating team in the league *sigh*) I'm still convinced the Rockets are gonna fail but not yet. I reckon they'll win Game Two by a wide margin.
Friday, April 13, 2018
2017-18 NBA Playoff Predictions
East
Raptors over Wizards (5)
Bucks over Celtics (7)
Sixers over Heat (7)
Cavs over Pacers (5)
The Raptors are notoriously slow starters in the post-season and the Wizards have generally overachieved in the John Wall era. But I think that's ready to flip this year. The Raptors have tightened up and are playing better than ever while the Wizards are wreck that are falling apart quickly. I think the Raptors will come in strong and stay strong while the Wizards come in with empty swagger and look awful on their way out.
If the Celtics had Kyrie Irving, Gordon Hayward and Marcus Smart to go with the rest of their lineup and the great Brad Stevens to lead them, I'd say they would destroy the Bucks. But Smart is gone, Hayward is long gone and Kyrie doesn't seem likely to return any time soon. So while I still love Stevens' ability to get the most out of what he has left, mostly what he has is an overworked rookie, which is like bringing a wine cooler to the Theta Chi kegger. The Bucks are a sloppy mosh pit of a team and, again, if they were going up against a full Celtics squad, I'd give them no shot at all. But they have Giannis and a bunch of weird athletes. I think the Celtics fight to the end but I'm going with Giannis in Game Seven.
The Sixers haven't lost a game in...like...forever, which is not something we've seen from the Sixers since Iverson (maybe Barkley--hell, maybe Julius!). Simmons has allowed the team to fall into place and they're riding high going into the post-season. But they are still a bunch of untested joes and they'll be starting off without their other MVP, Embiid. The Heat bring in a bunch of hungry veterans and a really good coach, I wouldn't be surprised to see Miami steal Game One and put the pressure on them. From there we'll see what the Sixers are made of. I think the Sixers are the better team and will figure it out (wouldn't be surprised if they destroy the Heat in Game Seven) but it is worth noting that 2 of their last 3 losses were to Miami (and frankly they got lucky to escape with a W the previous time they played Miami).
Lebron tends to sweep through the 1st round but this Pacers team is one of the better teams he's ever faced in the 1st round and this Cavs team is just a collection of guys and Lebron. I expect the Pacers to play the Cavs for about 3 games and then for Lebron to put the hammer down and crush their dreams. We'll see.
Cavs over Raptors (6)
Sixers over Bucks (5)
I want to believe in the Raptors and I think they'll be feeling pretty good when they face the Cavs in the 2nd round. I think they'll win a couple and be competitive but I expect Lebron to find a way and I expect the Raptors not to.
The Sixers will get pushed by the Heat while the Bucks will be playing with house money. But though both of these teams are young and sloppy, I expect the Sixers to tighten up and make their most of their advantages, while the Bucks flounder and flail.
Cavs over Sixers (6)
By the time the Cavs get to the conference finals they will have played their two toughest Eastern opponents in years. They'll be rolling, they'll know what they need to do and they won't be afraid of the upstart Sixers. The Sixers will feel lucky to beat the Heat and overconfident after dusting off the Bucks. They'll play hard, maybe even win Game One in a blowout. Then the Cavs will rear up, cut Simmons down to size and take them in Six (oh yeah, they won't let the Sixers get back home for Game Seven). Cavs rally and cruise back into the Championship.
West
Rockets over Wolves (4)
Warriors over Spurs (7)
Blazers over Pelicans (7)
Thunder over Jazz (5)
The Wolves are...I'll say it....roughly 30 seconds better than the Nuggets. They're lucky to be here and the Rockets will make quick work of them. Not much more to say than that.
The Spurs had their weakest season since before Tim Duncan arrived and the Kawhi turmoil hung over them like last night's fish dinner in a way that we don't generally see in San Antonio. Seems like they'd be easy pickings for the all-world Warriors but, man, the Warriors were quite underwhelming this season. They cycled through injuries like everyone else but their bench is the weakest its been in years, their killer instinct seems to have evaporated and they've been downright bad for the last 3-4 weeks. They still don't have Steph and they haven't looked this vulnerable since Mark Jackson was relying on Jarret Jack. The Spurs are down but they're still savvy and they know that now is their best shot at scoring an improbable upset. I suspect this series will look just like that until Game Seven, when the Warriors will wake up Serena-style and remind everyone they're still the best.
I'm kinda bummed to see the Blazers and Pelicans playing each other in the 1st round because they strike me as the two best chances at scoring a weird upset on somebody else (like when the two kooky NCAA sleeper teams get matched up in the tournament and you're think, 'Man, we could've two good games instead of one!'). Blazers just keep doing it year after year, I'm never sure how and though it felt like this would be the year when it finally fell apart, here they are in 3rd place. The Pelicans finally seem to have found a place where they can make the most of the great Anthony Davis and in the post-season the skimpiness of their bench will be less of an Achilles' Heal. With Holiday healthy and Mirotic in the fold, this is the best the Pelicans have been since Chris Paul left town. But in the end I gotta go with the veteran squad, the unified squad with their long time coach on their home floor though I can totally see Davis having a monster--MONSTER--game. Man, that Game Seven is gonna be a good one!
When the Thunder got Paul George, I thought they were ready to dominate. I thought Westbrook and PG were gonna be great together and bringing in Felton and Patterson to go with Adams, Roberson, Kanter and McDermott was gonna give them everything they needed to challenge the Warriors and Rockets. Then they traded for Melo and I was disappointed: they already had stars, they needed to work on molding their role players rather than trading an aging ball hog. By the end of the regular season they seemed to have (kinda) figured it out but they still lack the dirty work guys--too many chiefs, not enough braves. The Jazz are led by the phenom rookie Donovan Mitchell and likely DPOY Rudy Gobert and a helluva coach in Quin Snyder. Unfortunately, that's kinda all they got: a rookie, a shotblocker and a coach that's never been this far. Ehh, I think this is Westbrook's time. I think Westbrook will not be stopped, George can fluster Mitchell and the rest of the OKC cast is superior to that of Utah. The Jazz have had a fine season while the Thunder have had a shaky one. But I think that flips back here and the Thunder dropkick the Jazz.
Thunder over Rockets (6)
Warriors over Blazers (5)
And the Thunder continues to roll. Okay, I've long had my doubts about the post-season abilities of Chris Paul (too intense to play the same team over and over again--and then a better team over and over again after that) and James Harden (too flaky, when he has a bad night, he tends to run and hide) and Mike D'antoni (he'll have no buttons to push when his two stars disappoint). Until those guys actually do it, I remain skeptical regardless of how good they were in the regular season (shades of the 2014-15 Atlanta Hawks--yeah I said it). The Thunder will play with fury and anger, Westbrook will fustigate CP, PG will give Harden all he can handle, Melo will finally feel at home knocking down 3's on Trevor Ariza, Adams will show Capela how it's done and everyone will wonder why the Thunder weren't better all year long. I like OKC to finish them at home in Game Six.
Once the Warriors find themselves in an old fashioned dogfight with the Spurs, the Blazers will seem like easy pickings. The Warriors will regain their old form of piling up points in a hurry and the Blazers will be backpedaling quickly. I like the Warriors to find the groove right away.
Warriors over Thunder (7)
If this post-season goes the way I've described it so far, then god damn, won't this series be the shit?!? (Damn, I really hope I'm right!) The Thunder won't be afraid of the Warriors and after they've dusted off the Rockets, they'll be delighted to get back to the old days of going toe-to-toe with the best of the bunch. But the Warriors by this point will be back and just like old times, they'll drop a bomb on them in Game Seven. Warriors back to the Finals for the 4th straight year.
Warriors over Cavs (4)
Huh....didn't realize that's where I was going when I sat down to do this preview. Yeah, I think the Warriors will get pushed by the Spurs, find their groove against the Blazers, get tested again by the Thunder and find their groove again against the Cavs. I think the Cavs will work harder than they've worked in years past--and this could be the sunset of their Eastern dominance--but I think they, too, will overcome the hurdles and get back to the Finals. And this nightmare season of struggling Cavs and frail-looking Warriors will be back to where we always knew it was gonna go.
And, yes, I'm still cleaving pretty close to my pre-season picks. I had 6 out of 8 in each conference: Hornets and Pistons instead of Sixers and Pacers in the East; Nuggets and Clippers instead of Blazers and Pelicans in the West. And my pre-season final four was Cavs, Celtics, Warriors, Thunder; unless Kyrie and Smart return--which isn't impossible--I'll go ahead and air brush the Celtics out of the picture. The regular season played out kinda weird but I still see the same horizon I saw back in the beginning. We'll see.
Raptors over Wizards (5)
Bucks over Celtics (7)
Sixers over Heat (7)
Cavs over Pacers (5)
The Raptors are notoriously slow starters in the post-season and the Wizards have generally overachieved in the John Wall era. But I think that's ready to flip this year. The Raptors have tightened up and are playing better than ever while the Wizards are wreck that are falling apart quickly. I think the Raptors will come in strong and stay strong while the Wizards come in with empty swagger and look awful on their way out.
If the Celtics had Kyrie Irving, Gordon Hayward and Marcus Smart to go with the rest of their lineup and the great Brad Stevens to lead them, I'd say they would destroy the Bucks. But Smart is gone, Hayward is long gone and Kyrie doesn't seem likely to return any time soon. So while I still love Stevens' ability to get the most out of what he has left, mostly what he has is an overworked rookie, which is like bringing a wine cooler to the Theta Chi kegger. The Bucks are a sloppy mosh pit of a team and, again, if they were going up against a full Celtics squad, I'd give them no shot at all. But they have Giannis and a bunch of weird athletes. I think the Celtics fight to the end but I'm going with Giannis in Game Seven.
The Sixers haven't lost a game in...like...forever, which is not something we've seen from the Sixers since Iverson (maybe Barkley--hell, maybe Julius!). Simmons has allowed the team to fall into place and they're riding high going into the post-season. But they are still a bunch of untested joes and they'll be starting off without their other MVP, Embiid. The Heat bring in a bunch of hungry veterans and a really good coach, I wouldn't be surprised to see Miami steal Game One and put the pressure on them. From there we'll see what the Sixers are made of. I think the Sixers are the better team and will figure it out (wouldn't be surprised if they destroy the Heat in Game Seven) but it is worth noting that 2 of their last 3 losses were to Miami (and frankly they got lucky to escape with a W the previous time they played Miami).
Lebron tends to sweep through the 1st round but this Pacers team is one of the better teams he's ever faced in the 1st round and this Cavs team is just a collection of guys and Lebron. I expect the Pacers to play the Cavs for about 3 games and then for Lebron to put the hammer down and crush their dreams. We'll see.
Cavs over Raptors (6)
Sixers over Bucks (5)
I want to believe in the Raptors and I think they'll be feeling pretty good when they face the Cavs in the 2nd round. I think they'll win a couple and be competitive but I expect Lebron to find a way and I expect the Raptors not to.
The Sixers will get pushed by the Heat while the Bucks will be playing with house money. But though both of these teams are young and sloppy, I expect the Sixers to tighten up and make their most of their advantages, while the Bucks flounder and flail.
Cavs over Sixers (6)
By the time the Cavs get to the conference finals they will have played their two toughest Eastern opponents in years. They'll be rolling, they'll know what they need to do and they won't be afraid of the upstart Sixers. The Sixers will feel lucky to beat the Heat and overconfident after dusting off the Bucks. They'll play hard, maybe even win Game One in a blowout. Then the Cavs will rear up, cut Simmons down to size and take them in Six (oh yeah, they won't let the Sixers get back home for Game Seven). Cavs rally and cruise back into the Championship.
West
Rockets over Wolves (4)
Warriors over Spurs (7)
Blazers over Pelicans (7)
Thunder over Jazz (5)
The Wolves are...I'll say it....roughly 30 seconds better than the Nuggets. They're lucky to be here and the Rockets will make quick work of them. Not much more to say than that.
The Spurs had their weakest season since before Tim Duncan arrived and the Kawhi turmoil hung over them like last night's fish dinner in a way that we don't generally see in San Antonio. Seems like they'd be easy pickings for the all-world Warriors but, man, the Warriors were quite underwhelming this season. They cycled through injuries like everyone else but their bench is the weakest its been in years, their killer instinct seems to have evaporated and they've been downright bad for the last 3-4 weeks. They still don't have Steph and they haven't looked this vulnerable since Mark Jackson was relying on Jarret Jack. The Spurs are down but they're still savvy and they know that now is their best shot at scoring an improbable upset. I suspect this series will look just like that until Game Seven, when the Warriors will wake up Serena-style and remind everyone they're still the best.
I'm kinda bummed to see the Blazers and Pelicans playing each other in the 1st round because they strike me as the two best chances at scoring a weird upset on somebody else (like when the two kooky NCAA sleeper teams get matched up in the tournament and you're think, 'Man, we could've two good games instead of one!'). Blazers just keep doing it year after year, I'm never sure how and though it felt like this would be the year when it finally fell apart, here they are in 3rd place. The Pelicans finally seem to have found a place where they can make the most of the great Anthony Davis and in the post-season the skimpiness of their bench will be less of an Achilles' Heal. With Holiday healthy and Mirotic in the fold, this is the best the Pelicans have been since Chris Paul left town. But in the end I gotta go with the veteran squad, the unified squad with their long time coach on their home floor though I can totally see Davis having a monster--MONSTER--game. Man, that Game Seven is gonna be a good one!
When the Thunder got Paul George, I thought they were ready to dominate. I thought Westbrook and PG were gonna be great together and bringing in Felton and Patterson to go with Adams, Roberson, Kanter and McDermott was gonna give them everything they needed to challenge the Warriors and Rockets. Then they traded for Melo and I was disappointed: they already had stars, they needed to work on molding their role players rather than trading an aging ball hog. By the end of the regular season they seemed to have (kinda) figured it out but they still lack the dirty work guys--too many chiefs, not enough braves. The Jazz are led by the phenom rookie Donovan Mitchell and likely DPOY Rudy Gobert and a helluva coach in Quin Snyder. Unfortunately, that's kinda all they got: a rookie, a shotblocker and a coach that's never been this far. Ehh, I think this is Westbrook's time. I think Westbrook will not be stopped, George can fluster Mitchell and the rest of the OKC cast is superior to that of Utah. The Jazz have had a fine season while the Thunder have had a shaky one. But I think that flips back here and the Thunder dropkick the Jazz.
Thunder over Rockets (6)
Warriors over Blazers (5)
And the Thunder continues to roll. Okay, I've long had my doubts about the post-season abilities of Chris Paul (too intense to play the same team over and over again--and then a better team over and over again after that) and James Harden (too flaky, when he has a bad night, he tends to run and hide) and Mike D'antoni (he'll have no buttons to push when his two stars disappoint). Until those guys actually do it, I remain skeptical regardless of how good they were in the regular season (shades of the 2014-15 Atlanta Hawks--yeah I said it). The Thunder will play with fury and anger, Westbrook will fustigate CP, PG will give Harden all he can handle, Melo will finally feel at home knocking down 3's on Trevor Ariza, Adams will show Capela how it's done and everyone will wonder why the Thunder weren't better all year long. I like OKC to finish them at home in Game Six.
Once the Warriors find themselves in an old fashioned dogfight with the Spurs, the Blazers will seem like easy pickings. The Warriors will regain their old form of piling up points in a hurry and the Blazers will be backpedaling quickly. I like the Warriors to find the groove right away.
Warriors over Thunder (7)
If this post-season goes the way I've described it so far, then god damn, won't this series be the shit?!? (Damn, I really hope I'm right!) The Thunder won't be afraid of the Warriors and after they've dusted off the Rockets, they'll be delighted to get back to the old days of going toe-to-toe with the best of the bunch. But the Warriors by this point will be back and just like old times, they'll drop a bomb on them in Game Seven. Warriors back to the Finals for the 4th straight year.
Warriors over Cavs (4)
Huh....didn't realize that's where I was going when I sat down to do this preview. Yeah, I think the Warriors will get pushed by the Spurs, find their groove against the Blazers, get tested again by the Thunder and find their groove again against the Cavs. I think the Cavs will work harder than they've worked in years past--and this could be the sunset of their Eastern dominance--but I think they, too, will overcome the hurdles and get back to the Finals. And this nightmare season of struggling Cavs and frail-looking Warriors will be back to where we always knew it was gonna go.
And, yes, I'm still cleaving pretty close to my pre-season picks. I had 6 out of 8 in each conference: Hornets and Pistons instead of Sixers and Pacers in the East; Nuggets and Clippers instead of Blazers and Pelicans in the West. And my pre-season final four was Cavs, Celtics, Warriors, Thunder; unless Kyrie and Smart return--which isn't impossible--I'll go ahead and air brush the Celtics out of the picture. The regular season played out kinda weird but I still see the same horizon I saw back in the beginning. We'll see.
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