2023-24 NFL (Playoffs Wild Card Round)

Browns (-1.5) @ Texans (o/u 44.5)

I've watched the Browns a lot this year and I've generally been pretty impressed. Their defense is maybe the best in the league and it keeps them in games even when they roll in with a backup QB--which was, like, every game this season. The Texans have a rookie QB and coach and are winning because they don't know they're supposed to (ah, I love those teams!). I'm expecting a good one here, these are two pretty good teams that aren't as good they think they are, so a lot of swagger going into this one. I like the Browns, I just think the Texans are too young to get it done. I'll say Browns 24-14 (Browns and the under)

Dolphins @ Chiefs (-4.5) (43.5)

The Dolphins have had bursts of big offense but not enough to make me think they're really all that dangerous, especially considering the cavalcade of injuries they endured down the stretch. The Chiefs have improved their defense but the offense is just Mahomes alone (oh man, that just came to me! Need a t-shirt of Mahomes in the Scream pose). But Mahomes alone is still pretty great and I think gonna be better than what the Dolphins can bring. I like the Dolphins keep it close but Chiefs move on. Chiefs 24-21 (Dolphins and the over).

Steelers @ Bills (-9.5) (33.5)

For years now (YEARS!) I've been watching the Steelers get worse and worse on offense and yet still get W's and make the playoffs. This team is not good and hasn't been good in years. Yes, the defense is still okay (but they're without TJ Watt this week) and the 3rd string QB Rudolph is better than the 2nd string (Trubisky) and arguably the 1st string (Pickett) but I'm still not buying that they can move the ball. The BIlls run defense is a little soft but I don't see the Steelers being able to take advantage. The Bills have done just enough to win this season but as weird as they were, they did finish 2nd in the AFC, which was pretty close to everyone's pre-season pick, so are we sure they had a bad season? Okay, here's the prognostication: the Steelers hit big over the top early in the game, punch Buffalo in the nose and then...do nothing for the rest of the game. Neither team is worried about the frigid conditions--hell, both these teams love that shit. I'll say Bills 27-13 (Bills and the over).

Packers @ Cowboys (-7) (50.5)

People are on the Packers, who played better down the stretch once it seemed like they finally figured out their own QB (Love is up and down but promising enough to be a keeper, I'd say). But when the Cowboys bring their A game (especially at home), they are petty damn overpowering offense. I think the Cowboys bring it, just don't see how the Packers keep up. I'll say Cowboys 38-17 (Cowboys and the over)

Rams @ Lions (-3) (51.5)

I think this could be the funnest game of a weekend full of fun games. The Rams started slow but when they play their best game, they're pretty damn good on both sides of the ball. The Lions have had highs and lows but my gut feeling is they're best is better than the Rams best. I'd love to see them both play their best but I think the Lions have a better chance of playing their best than the Rams (does that make sense?). I like the Lions in a barn burner (I think the Rams have their chance to win it and come up short). Lions 31-28 (Push and the under).

Eagles (-3) @ Bucs (43.5)

The Eagles just haven't looked interested in football for a coupla months now, not sure what their deal is, but I'd like to think they pull it together at least enough to beat the Bucs. The Bucs are the wildly unpredictable (the Colts were like this, too) team in the post-season, so if you think they're going to roll over to the Eagles, well, bet the opposite. I've factored that in, though, as I think the Eagles are bringing back their A game (for one week at least) and look to get up early and then bring the pass rush. I got Eagles 31-13 (Eagles and the over). 

2023-24 NFL (Week 1)

Games I watched (some of):

Lions 21-20 Chiefs

I wasn't as impressed with the vaunted Lions offense as the cool kids keep telling me I should be, but they were effective enough against the Chiefs on the road and that's not bad. As for the Chiefs, I can't help thinking their offense might struggle this year (okay, I'll admit it: I have the Chiefs not making the playoffs....yeah, yeah, I'm that guy) and without Travis Kelce--well, whadda you know?--they did struggle. Mahomes is still gonna be great but the cupboard isn't as full as it has been in recent years, not sure he'll be able to do it all himself. Oh, and the Chiefs were missing their best defender, too, so perhaps the sky isn't falling quite that fast, it could well be when they get their best offensive player and best defensive player back, maybe...decent chance that they'll be better. As for the Lions, hey, good W in what is I presume the toughest game on their schedule, so off to a good start. 

Bengals 3-24 Browns

The game reports and highlights might not focus how rainy it was all through the first half, when both offenses looked fucking awful. The Browns were able to move the ball in the 2nd half, whereas the Bengals just never got going. The Bengals offensive woes were a perfect storm of bad weather, wrong game plan and going up against a really good pass rush. I have the Bengals in the Super Bowl and I'm not worried, they a slow starting team, I expect them to be just fine by October. As for the Browns, well, QB Deshaun Watson is arguably the most intriguing risk/reward QB in your fantasy draft, but I'm all in on the Browns; I think Watson is going to be good and he will make the offense roll and I think the defense is gonna be real good. I expect both of these teams to go deep in the playoffs and I don't think this week means much of anything. 

Niners 30-7 Steelers

I was extremely impressed with the Niners on both sides of the ball, I have them in the Final Four, I'm expecting them to be good, but I was expecting a tougher contest in Pittsburgh and they dismantled the Steelers. The Steelers never got any offense going--not sure whether they suck or were just up against a tough D--but the Steeler defense looked fine (and still gave up 30 points). I know it's foolish to overreact to Week 1, but if you're still having second thoughts about Brock Purdy....well, I'm not, that dude can play and he is the right guy for this offense, I'm expecting the Niners to be good. As for the Steelers, the D is gonna be fine, not sure about that offense, though.

Cowboys 40-0 Giants

Whoa, whoa, settle down. Yes, the Cowboys are probably better than the Giants but I'd say it is unlikely that the Cowboys are this good or that the Giants are this bad. The Cowboys looked good, played hard, had the right game plan and they got all the breaks; the Giants looked tentative, sloppy and were supremely unlucky. This is just one game, people, don't get carried away. 

Bills 16-22 (OT) Jets

Kudos to the Jets defense, but let's be honest: Josh Allen straight sucked in this game. All three interceptions were terrible decisions on his part and fumbling the ball in the 4th quarter in NYJ FG position? Hmmmm....not good, man, not good for the leader of the team. But the Bills always struggle @ the Jets and even though the NYJ shiny new toy, Aaron Rodgers, got hurt instantly (and looks to be out for an extended period), well, the NYJ defense is still really good (and, honestly, I didn't think their offense would be that good even with Rodgers) and it'll keep them in games (just like last year). I think Buffalo is going to be fine, Josh Allen will have better days (he certainly won't have too many worse than this!) and I think they'll win more than they lose. As for the Jets, I wasn't in on them even with Rodgers, so going back to Zack Wilson isn't exciting but I don't think it makes them much worse. 

The rest of the slate

Panthers 10-24 Falcons

The Panthers might be the worst team in the league (and I wasn't in on Bryce Young even at Alabama, I sure ain't in on him with Carolina!); the Falcons offense looks like one of the funnest in the league, it'd be cool to see them pile up some W's.  

Jags 31-21 Colts

Yeah, that looks about right. The Jags should be pretty good this year and struggling on the road in a division game isn't the end of the world. As for the Colts, well, their rookie QB looks like a helluva player, but I doubt that'll translate to wins any time soon. 

Bucs 20-17 Vikings

Hmmmmm.....what's up here? I think the Vikings are going to be pretty good and I think the Bucs are going to be kinda awful, so why did the Bucs win at Minnesota? I have no idea. 

Titans 15-16 Saints

I suspect these two teams are similar: good on defense, pretty good on special teams, not bad on offense but weird at QB. The fact that these two dueled to a virtual draw suggests to me that I was right. 

Cards 16-20 Commanders

Kinda thought the Commanders would be better at home against a team that doesn't even look like its trying to win. Are the Cards better than we think or are the Commanders still a slopfest? 

Texans 9-25 Ravens

Yeah, that's about right. 

Packers 38-20 Bears

Yeah, that's about right. I think the Packers might be okay with Jordan Love. As for the Bears, I like Fields, I want to like him more, but I have no faith in the Bears as a team right now and I suspect they'll be pretty bad--even if Fields takes a step forward. 

Raider 17-16 Broncos

Yeah, that's about right. The Broncos should get better as the season goes on, the Raiders should be up and down (winning games they should lose, losing games they should win).

Eagles 25-20 Patriots

I suspect this game was closer than you think. The Eagles are solid on both sides of the ball but they've got a target on their backs they didn't have last year. The Pats never suck but they'll still be led by defense until they find the right QB (is Mac Davis the right guy? I dunno, but probably not). 

Dolphins 36-34 Chargers

Looks like a fun game. If the Dolphins can stay healthy, they can pile up points; but if they have even an inkling of trouble, they could get sideways in a hurry. The Chargers are the Chargers, man: even when they're great they'll figure out ways to lose games. 

Rams 30-13 Seahawks

Hmmmmm.....I kinda thought the Rams were gunning for the #1 pick, but they might actually be better than I would've thought them capable. In my pre-season picks, I had the Seahwks being pretty bad--like so bad I immediately suspected I had unnecessarily lowered them, but after this result, maybe not. Maybe they'll just revert back to being the bad team they were supposed to be last year. 

2021-22 NFL (Conference Round)

When I was a kid Commissioner Rozelle preached of 'parity', a world where all teams are on an even keel competitively. Well, that doesn't exactly work in the regular season but when the four quarterfinal matches end in 3 walk-off FGs and a coin flip finish (*), we are basking in the glow of Rozelle's vision. And the man was right: this was a great weekend of football. 

Bengals 19-16 Titans

First play from scrimmage: Ian Eagle is hitting us with a stat about the Titans' paucity of turnovers in recent weeks just as Tannehill was releasing his pass--and I swear to God, I knew that pass was getting intercepted. And it was. The Titans tried to make use of Derrick Henry, who had not played in several weeks, but it didn't move the ball down the field. The Titans pass rush was impressive (Joe Burrow became the first QB to win a playoff game after getting sacked 9 times) but otherwise there just wasn't much to the Titans after you factor in Henry's gimpiness. The Titans were neither over/under rated, they were a quarterfinal squad and that's about right. The Bengal pass rush, too, was pretty good, and though the Bengal offense mostly produced only FGs, it was enough to move on. 

Niners 13-10 Packers

I feel like I say this all the time on this blog, but the Packers' brilliant opening drive, followed by absolutely no offense for the rest of the game, happens a lot more than you think it does--don't be overwhelmed by the opening drive! The Packers missed an FG and had a disastrous blocked punt from their own end zone, so though Aaron Rodgers was not amazing today (boy, were there any other receivers besides Davante Adams out there?), he was actually still good enough to beat a Niners offense that only put up 2 FG's. The Niners D was great (a lot of pass rush this weekend!) and the special teams made the big plays to win the game, but I'm still not seeing it with the Niners (yeah, yeah, they'll be hoisting the trophy and I'll still be like, but how did they win?). Point being: to me this was a Packers choke job, not a Niner victory. 

Rams 30-27 Bucs

Okay, I think we can tell who the Rams are now, right? They're unstoppable for 2-3 quarters and then completely run out of gas in the end. That's who they are, right? So when they went up 27-3 (should've been worse than that, too), no one really thought the game was over, right? And when Tom Brady came back and tied it up late, no one was really shocked, right? We all saw all that coming, right? Well, until that last monster bomb down field to Cooper Kupp to set up the game winning FG--I didn't see that coming! Fun game, though it was never really what you would call 'competitive', even though it was tied with five seconds to go. Now they say Brady is retiring...well this probably was his last best chance and he did just win a Super Bowl, so perhaps now is the time; on the other hand, the Saints and Panthers have no QB and the Falcons are going to replace Ryan soon, feels like the Bucs are still a playoff team... (don't be surprised if this story turns out to be less true than we think it is).  

Bills 36-42 (OT) Chiefs

Well, obviously I would've preferred a different outcome, but this was an amazing game and ended up the way I thought it would, so I can't complain too much. Fun game, back and forth game, felt like the Chiefs had the upper hand and then it didn't any more, that last two minutes was non-stop craziness (at the 2-minute warning the score was 21-26) and I think we've proved that Mahomes and Josh Allen are two best QB's in the league right now. I fully expect both of these squads to be back next year--and I fully expect the Bills to vanquish the Chiefs at that time. The Chiefs were always the best team in the AFC and their weird offensive squabbles early on, never fazed me for a second; and the Bills were always the 2nd best team in the AFC (though that one I wasn't so sure of til this past Sunday). Hey, Mafia, we'll always have 47-17 and that still makes this a great season. 

Bengals @ Chiefs (-6.5) (o/u 51)

The Bengals beat the Chiefs in Week 17, a really marvelous game that went down to the wire (some questioned the Bengals' kooky clock work down the stretch but I thought it was perfect). Can they beat the Chiefs again? Yeah, but I wouldn't bet on it. The Bengals are really good, man, this is not a fluke, that offense can really move the ball and Burrow is the shit. I've even become more impressed with their pass rush (**) but the Chiefs are rolling again, they've re-discovered that the Kelce-Tyreke combo is pretty much un-guardable and Mahomes will find them. The Chiefs looked wounded enough throughout the season to give us pause--and the Bengals are a worthy opponent--but the Chiefs are still the best. Chiefs 31-20 (Chiefs, push)

Niners @ Rams (-4) (o/u 47)

(Division game in the conference finals?) (***) The Niners have beaten the Rams five straight times, including Week 18 when the Rams blew a 17-0 lead. Well, we know how this plays: the Rams will get an early lead and try to hang on. I think they can and will. Outside of the 1st quarter of the Cowboys game, the Niner offense has not done anything at all. Let's be honest: the Cowboys blinked and the Packers just forgot that special teams is a part of the game; the Niners are not in the final four because of their brilliant play. Can they beat the Rams? Oh yeah, we've seen them do it. But if you're blown away by the Niners' play so far in the playoffs....why? I'm still not convinced they're better than the Cowboys! That pass rush (always with the pass rush these days!) has been excellent and I think they'll have their moments against Stafford. But I think the Rams will finally play a complete game and we won't even see much of a late comeback. Rams 34-16 (Rams, over)

 

(*) I haven't heard anyone say this all week long, but we all agree that if the Bills had won the OT coin toss, then it would've been Josh Allen going right down the field to secure the W for the Bills rather than Mahomes winning it for the Chiefs, right? We all know that, right? This game was literally a coin flip and the difference between Allen and Mahomes right now is less than a penny. 

(**) Man, all these deep playoff squads have great pass rushes! In this era of great QB's, the next weapon in the pass rush, isn't it?

(***) Remember back at the beginning of the year when we thought the NFC West and AFC West were both going to dominate? Then the season started and that all went away. Well, 3 of the last 4 teams are from the West, so...

2021-22 NCAA Football (Week 2)

Saw some of: 

(12) Oregon 35-28 (3) Ohio State

Kept waiting for the Buckeyes to take control of this match and they never did. Good W for Oregon, they were the better team throughout on both sides of the ball--and I don't think this was a just 'any given Saturday' phenomenon, I was really much more impressed with Oregon than with Ohio State. The QB was firm, the RB was a beast who made big plays, the speed on the edge defense was impressive and the made the big plays late when they needed to.  Oregon was just flat out good, a deserved top 5 team for now. 

(10) Iowa 27-17 (9) Iowa State

Man, Iowa was the better team but State made so many fluky mistakes, that it warped my perception. I'm pretty sure Iowa is for real but this game kinda makes it hard to tell because it doesn't feel possible that they were this much worse than Iowa State. Good W for Iowa, if they can keep it going against Penn State and Wisconsin, they could find themselves in the playoff--definitely a team to keep an eye on. 

(13) Florida 42-20 South Florida

The Gators so dominated the 1st half of this game that it's easy to overlook how soft they looked in the 2nd half. Don't get me wrong, Florida was the better team and should be a competitive squad all year. But the way they mailed it in after halftime is a little creepy. Oh, they got 'Bama next week, perhaps I'm just being overly critical. 

(5) Texas A&M 10-7 Colorado

Gotta be honest: I was totally rooting for Colorado to sting the Aggies. All I saw was the 4th quarter when it felt like the Buffaloes were finally wearing down. A&M fumbled away the go-ahead TD at the goal line, but were able to hold Colorado off and then get that go-ahead TD on their next possession to steal a late W on the road. Yeah, I get it: early season, non-conference road games don't get the juices flowing, but overcoming those letdowns is what a good team does. Am I supposed to be impressed that they pulled out the W or suspicious that it took them so long to subdue a mediocre opponent? (For now, I'm more suspicious than impressed)

Top 25

Handled their business

(1) Alabama, (2) Georgia, (4) Oklahoma, (6) Clemson, (7) Cincinnati, (10) Iowa, (11) Penn State, (17) Coastal Carolina, (18) Wisconsin, (19) Virginia Tech, (20) Ole Miss, (23) Arizona State, (24) North Carolina, (25) Auburn 

Won but did not impress

(5) Texas A&M. (see above: more suspicious than impressed)

(8) Notre Dame. Come on, Irish. You trying to get the coach fired or what?

(22) Miami. I get that at home against App State isn't always the easiest match, but come on, Hurricanes. In order to get back in the mix (an L to Alabama is not a season-killer), you gotta handle your business and this is not inspiring confidence. 

Bad beat 

(9) Iowa State. Man, it was not Iowa State's day, they Sideshow Bob-bed that rake over and over again this afternoon. They can't be this bad but how good are they? I went with 'bad beat' because I think Iowa is legit good and I would be surprised if Iowa State plays this bad again this year (which means watch out, Oklahoma!).  

Not good

(3) Ohio State. I was impressed by Oregon, I think they're really good and I could've put this in the 'bad beat' category, but I was wildly unimpressed with the Buckeyes. I was underwhelmed by their LBs and their pass rush, nor did I love their QB (perhaps the most uninspiring 500 yds/3 TD performance I've ever seen) or their special teams. This is a nice team but not a classic Buckeye squad. And after watching Iowa this week and Penn State last week, feels like the Buckeyes could be in some trouble this season. They've bounced back from early season losses before, we'll see how this focuses them going forward. 

(14) Southern Cal. Not good, felt like USC was ready to have a bust out season, but if you can't beat Stanford, you don't go far. 

(15) Texas. I had a feeling Arkansas was waiting for the Longhorns. And the fact that I'm still not at all impressed by Arkansas is not good for Texas.

(21) Utah. Hmmm....so is Utah overrated or is BYU underrated?

Next week's interesting matchups

(8) Cincinnait @ Indiana (yeah, I know this isn't the 1962 NCAA tournament, but it is an interesting test for the Bearcats; Indiana can sling it and they've already played a top 10 team this year, they won't be intimidated)

(1) Alabama @ (11) Florida (boom! Your marquee matchup of the week!)

(22) Auburn @ (10) Penn State (hmmm....this is an out-of-nowhere match...okay, I'm in)

(19) Arizona State @ (23) BYU (finally gonna the age old question: are either of these teams actually any good?)

2021 Super Bowl

 Chiefs (-3) @ (*) Bucs (o/u 55.5). I thought that line would be down to -2 but still at a solid FG, 40 minutes before game time.

Tom Brady is the unquestioned GOAT. Brady has been to 14 final fours in 19 seasons. Dude...that's just...that's just stupid. That's Magic Johnson territory, Bill Russell territory, that's John Wooden and Vince Lombardi kinda shit. There are no NFL QB's that even come close to that. And he'll retire as the greatest in the playoffs and regular season, by far. 

Patrick Mahomes is the one dude that seems capable of catching him. That's part of what makes this matchup so compelling. I watch every Super Bowl but I don't look forward to them as much as I've been anticipating this one. This is a good match between the right teams. I thought it would be the Packers instead of the Bucs, but while the Packers pretty much stomped everyone they played this year, for some reason they just couldn't beat the Bucs. The Bucs have been getting better over the last 8 weeks or so, they're peaking at the right time, and they had the magic to dispatch Aaron Rodgers.

I think they can do that to Mahomes, too. The Chiefs are now 16-2 (16-1 with Mahomes) this season. That comes after winning the Super Bowl and a shit ton of games last year. so they're in Crimson Tide territory in the ridiculousness of their recent dominance. That said, for a dominant team they have to eke out victories in the 4th quarter an awful lot. That's not a bad thing, just that they're method of winning games tends to leave a lot of room for mistakes. 

The fact that the Chiefs don't win til the 4th quarter gives the Bucs a lot of room to put up some points. And I think they will. And I think the Bucs D-line will get to the makeshift unit the Chiefs have going tonight (their one clear weakness) and Mahomes will be bad scrambling more than good scrambling. Either Hill or Kelce will put up numbers but--unlike the Bills--I think the Bucs will shut down one or the other and minimize the damage. That pass rush will slow down the onslaught to give the Bucs a lead going into the 4th quater.

I think the game will still be fun deep in the 4th quarter but I think the Bucs will put up too much of a lead to come back from. I'll say Bucs 34-30 (Bucs and the over). 

That said, I can see the Chiefs doing the same thing to the Bucs. I can see the Chiefs pulling it out late, I can see the Bucs coming back and winning late. I can see either team winning close but what I don't see is a blowout. I think this one stays close throughout, should be a final possession kinda game. Ahhhhhh....that sounds good. 

(*) Literally.

2019-20 NFL Super Bowl

Conference championships
Titans 24-35 Chiefs
I thought the key to this game would be the Chiefs getting out to a quick lead to neutralize the Titan rushing attack.  Uh, not so much.  Titans got up 10-0 right off the bat and it seemed like the Chiefs were on their heels.  But then Mahomes made plays, Chiefs scored points and soon enough the Titans were an afterthought in their own game. A note on Derrick Henry: back in the Laker threepeat days, I remember every time the Lakers came down the court and didn't give the ball to Shaq, I wondered, 'Why aren't you giving the ball to Shaq?' That's what Derrick Henry was in this playoffs: every time the Titans did something other than give the ball to Henry, I wondered, 'Why didn't you give the ball to Henry?' Seriously, this is one of those games where the coach must've pulled Henry aside and said, 'Okay, kid, you're getting the ball 40 times this week. Be ready!' But for some reason the Titans mixed up their game plan and it just didn't work, they spun their wheels and once the Chiefs got going, this was all over. Mahomes is the man.

Packers 20-37 Niners
I thought this match would be closer, thought the Packers would dial up something different then their regular season thrashing by the Niners. Uh, not so much. Niners came to play, dominated the game early. I thought Aaron Rodgers was primed to have a big game but frankly I thought Rodgers kinda killed the Packers: a bad fumble when driving in the 1st half and then a bad interception right before halftime for the Niners to pile on their lead and it was over. The Packers accumulated some points in the 2nd half but it never really mattered. The Niners controlled this game completely on both sides of the ball. 


Super Bowl
Niners @ Chiefs (-1.5) (o/u 54)
I think the Niners are the better team top to bottom but I am more convinced that the Chiefs (re: Patrick Mahomes) will make the plays necessary to win the game. In order for the Niners to hang they will need either a defensive TD and/or Jimmy Garropolo to make plays. Both of those things are quite possible but we haven't seen Jimmy G make plays so far and while I think he's capable, I just haven't seen it yet so I'm more convinced in Mahomes. Likewise, that Niner D is good--that pass rush is GREAT--but Mahomes has beaten good defenses before and I just have more faith in Mahomes than in anything the Niners are bringing. I think the Niners get out to a quick 10-0 lead, I think the Chiefs are up at halftime 17-16. Then I like the Chiefs to wear the Niners out in the 2nd half. Yeah, I know the Niners really are the better, more complete team, but the Chiefs have a playmaker that can squash all that pronto. I like Chiefs to win 38-23 (Chiefs and the over).

2019-20 NCAA Bowl Results

(3) Clemson 25-42 (1) LSU
Yeah, that's about right. The game started a little slow as each team calibrated their offenses against new defensive looks, but you just knew this game was not gonna be a defensive slugfest and once they got going, both teams moved the ball pretty well. I thought the refs kinda sucked: in those first few drives they really let the teams batter each other when it seemed like both sides were looking to the refs to establish the parameters of the game. The refs failed to do that and then randomly called pass interference through the game. I thought the refs were fairly even, but Clemson had a TD called back in the 3rd quarter for what I thought was a bogus pass interference that might have sparked something. That said, this game turned out about right, the score was a little lower than I thought it would be, largely because the offenses started slow and then Clemson got frustrated by the 4th quarter and mostly just spun their wheels. LSU was really good, man, Joe Burrow was a mathematician out there all season long and he was again in the Final. (I guess I expect Clemson to start #1 next season with Alabama and Ohio State right behind them; wouldn't be surprised if that's your Final Four, along with Oklahoma, next year)


Right (24)
(3) Clemson 25-42 (1) LSU
(4) Oklahoma 28-63 (1) LSU
(3) Clemson 29-23 (2) Ohio State
(5) Georgia 26-14 (7) Baylor
(6) Oregon 28-27 (8) Wisconsin
(9) Florida 36-28 (24) Virginia
(17) Memphis 39-53 (10) Penn State
(14) Michigan 16-35 (13) Alabama

(15) Notre Dame 33-9 Iowa State
Boston College 6-20 (21) Cincinnati
(22) Southern Cal 24-49 (16) Iowa
(20) Appalachian State 31-17 UAB
(23) Navy 20-17 Kansas State
(25) Oklahoma State 21-24 Texas A&M

Buffalo 31-9 Charlotte

BYU 34-38 Hawaii

Louisiana Tech 14-0 Miami
Pittsburgh 34-30 Eastern Michigan

North Carolina 55-13 Temple

Western Kentucky 23-20 Western Michigan

Virginia Tech 30-37 Kentucky
Florida State 14-20 Arizona State

Louisiana 27-17 Miami (OH)

California 35-20 Illinois

Wrong (17)
(11) Utah 10-38 Texas
(18) Minnesota 31-24 (12) Auburn

Utah State 41-51 Kent State
Central Michigan 11-48 San Diego State
Liberty 23-16 Georgia Southern
SMU 28-52 Florida Atlantic
California 35-20 Illinois

Florida Int'l 26-34 Arkansas State

Michigan State 27-21 Wake Forest
Air Force 31-21 Washington State
Mississippi State 28-38 Louisville
Wyoming 38-17 Georgia State
Indiana 22-23 Tennessee
Ohio 30-21 Nevada
Southern Mississippi 13-30 Tulane
Alcorn State 44-64 North Carolina A&T
Central Florida 48-25 Marshall

No spreads, just winners. I did pretty good picking the ranked teams--the only two I missed were another shocking upset by Texas and Minnesota sticking it to Auburn (which I would have loved to have picked!). Of the unranked teams...I dunno...total crapshoot and I didn't fare all that well. Oh well, already looking forward to next year. 

2019-20 NCAA Football (Week 3)

Games I saw some of:

Florida 29-21 Kentucky
*sigh* classic Kentucky football....Held the lead most of the game, had the chance to re-take the lead in the last minute, missed the FG, give up an extra TD while Florida was running out the clock, didn't even cover the spread. Oh well, UK did look better than Florida for most of this game and that's not insignificant; the flipside to that: I got a feeling Florida will be better with their 2nd string QB than they would've been with the starter. We'll see. Florida is fine but doesn't strike me as top ten quality; Kentucky is okay, should probably win more than they lose this year, which is nice. 


Top 25
Handled their business
(1) Clemson, (2) Alabama, (3) Georgia, (4) LSU, (5) Oklahoma, (6) Ohio State, (7) Notre Dame, (8) Auburn, (11) Utah, (12) Texas, (13) Penn State, (15) Oregon, (16) Texas A&M, (17) Central Florida, (20) Washington State, (22) Boise State, (23) Washington, (25) Virginia


Won but did not impress
(9) Florida. Scrambling late to beat Kentucky who was handing them the game does not inspire confidence. Losing their starting QB could turn out to be a blessing in disguise...or it could be the death knell of their season (Kentucky ain't on the schedule no more!).
(19) Iowa. Pulling out a grudge match on the road is probably more impressive than I'm giving it credit for (I looked the other way for Penn State, for example).


Did not get it done
(18) Michigan State. Felt like they were gonna pull out the slugfest with Arizona State but they did not. Sparty has a good D but no offense to speak of.
(21) Maryland. They ran up the score well in their first coupla games but couldn't get it going against that Temple juggernaut.
(24) Southern Cal. Just reminds us that in this top 25 world, there are really only 15-20 teams worth keeping up with.


Notable games next week
(7) Notre Dame @ (3) Georgia (should be fun)
(11) Michigan @ (13) Wisconsin (can the Wolverine D stand up to the Badger running attack?)
(8) Auburn @ (17) Texas A&M (A&M strikes me as better than usual this year, that enough to give them a convincing W over an SEC West foe?)
(22)Washington @ BYU (this match could have a big impact on the PAC-12 this season)

Anyone else tired of the ticker?

I lived in Charlotte, NC, in 1996. I mention this because though that was a Kentucky Wildcat championship season (still one of the best NCAA teams I ever saw), their games were not readily available to me because I lived in enemy territory. So as disappointing as it is to recollect missing that game, at the time it wasn't that strange I was at work (or at the movies) instead of watching the SEC Tournament final.

So I come home from work that night (March 10, 1996), pop on the ESPN and along the bottom of the screen was the ticker of basketball scores. I still recall the first time that SEC final score came along and when seeing that Mississippi State had beaten Kentucky, I thought how odd it was that the ticker had the score wrong. I mean, how is it possible that Kentucky could've lost that game? Hours later, a full day of watching sports (or whatever) I was blown away that the ticker still had the score wrong.

In fact, UK did lose that game (*) and I still can't believe it. Indeed, that is probably the most surprising loss in all of my decades of watching UK basketball. So surprising was this loss that in fact my first instinct (indeed, my second and third, as well) was to blame the scoreboard rather than just accepting that my beloved squad dropped an easy one.

I tell that story to show my fealty to the ticker. I actually have a discernible sports memory related to the ticker itself, which was still a pretty brand new invention in 1996. Hey, man, back in the day a slow crawl of sports scores across the bottom of the screen was better than the moon landing! It made one feel up to date, enlightened about things that actually matter (like whether the Jets were able to cover against the Dolphins). I'd happily rank the tinker among the better innovations of our media age, in its day it gave so much info with so little effort. But like the VCR, another good innovation from back in the day, we have outgrown it.

Now we have laptops, smart phones, smart watches, smart eyeglasses, pads, pods and Twitter. Now we have no shortage of places to get sports scores. The sports ticker is nothing but a nuisance now, a vestigial leftover of a time that no longer exists. Everything has gotten better, faster, more abundant...

...but there is one thing that has not exponentially grown in the last 20 years: time to watch sports. Watching my baseball, basketball and soccer on tape delay allows me to watch more sports by fitting the games into my schedule instead of jamming myself into a space-time continuum that benefits me less.

Sports is still considered a must-see live spectacle but I find that's really only true of football. (**) Everything else can wait, which works just fine--as long as I don't know the score of the game before I sit down to watch it!

The ticker tells me of things I do not want to know. It takes up space on the screen. It attracts my busy eyes which is what the football game I'm watching ought to be doing. It busily reminds me at all times that I don't need it for anything!

I'm talking to you, ABC Sports: I don't need the damn ticker! I know you think you're being cool by pummeling me with European soccer scores but actually you are only ruining my enjoyment of those matches. I know you think you're performing some kind of service by giving a steady stream of baseball scores, but I'd really rather you didn't. If I wanted to know them, they are readily available to me. You are not helping me enjoy sports, ABC, you are punishing me for watching your sport first. (***)



(*) Kentucky just missed the chance to avenge that loss to Mississippi State in the NCAA finals, but Syracuse hung on and made it to the title game instead. Oh, man, UK would've beaten Mississippi State by 400 points!
(**) Also the NCAA tourney, World Cup soccer, the Masters--which just goes to show that the extraordinary events in other sports are roughly equal to every day ordinary football games. I don't know how to explain it but I've long believed that football is as big as anything in America.
(***) Punishing the customer works in some industries but I bet sports entertainment isn't one of them.

2019-20 NCAA Football (Week 1+)

Ahhhhhhh.....football.

Games I saw some of
(11) Oregon 21-27 (16) Auburn
I was impressed by Oregon's QB and Auburn's true-freshman QB, too. Oregon was rolling pretty well at first, then turned timid late and stop making plays; Auburn laid low til halftime, then pulled it out in the 2nd half. I was more impressed with both teams than I thought I would be. Comparing this to last year's Auburn-Washington match-up (when both squads were ranked in the top ten), I suspect Auburn and Oregon are both better this season than that game showed off. I've love to see Auburn give Bama a game (I guess it's possible) and I can see Oregon winning the Pac-12.

Northwestern 7-17 (25) Stanford
Kept expecting more out of Northwestern's QB, he had moments but didn't get it done down the stretch. As for Stanford, they look like a 'nice' team, no major mistakes but no overachieving either, I can see them being in the #20-#30 range pretty much all season.

Houston 31- 49 (4) Oklahoma
Wow, OU's offense is gonna be top notch this year, but...hmmmm...that defense kinda gave up some points to a nothing-special looking Houston squad. Its easy to see the Heisman Hurts talk is ready to take off but I'm not sure that D is gonna get them to the playoff--and come on, man, Oklahoma-Alabama is a game we've got to see!


Top 25
Handled their business
(1) Clemson, (2) Alabama, (3) Georgia, (4) Oklahoma, (5) Ohio State, (6) Louisiana State, (7) Michigan, (9) Notre Dame, (10) Texas, (12) Texas A&M, (13) Washington, (14) Utah, (15) Penn State, (16) Auburn, (17) Central Florida, (18) Michigan State, (19) Wisconsin, (20) Iowa, (22) Syracuse, (23) Washington State, (24) Nebraska, (25) Stanford


Won but did not impress
(8) Florida. Miami didn't look all that good and probably should've beaten Florida. Coming in I thought Florida would be in good position to beat Georgia this year, but after this game I no longer see that as a possibility. We'll see, perhaps we'll look back on this as a great save rather than a near giveaway.

(21) Iowa State. Northern Iowa is a pretty good squad and the Cyclones did pull their shit together and avoid disaster, but you'd like to see a little more assured confidence in a home opener. Iowa State has a knack for giving really good teams a scare and I guess they're the kinda squad that gives up scares to lesser teams, too.


Bad beat
(11) Oregon. I suspect they're good, man, decent chance we look back on this L to Auburn as an impressive accomplishment.


Next week's interesting matches:
Army @ (7) Michigan (Army was legit good last year, don't expect them to be a walkover in Ann Arbor)
(12) Texas A&M @ (1) Clemson (definitely tougher than Clemson is used to playing at this time in the season, should be some fun)
(6) LSU @ (9) Texas (okay...let's see it)

2018-19 NCAA Football (Week 14)

Games I watched (some of):

(10) Washington 10-3 (17) Utah
Yeah, that game was as boring as the score would indicate. The winning TD was a flukey pick-6, otherwise there was no offense--NO OFFENSE--in this game at all.  This was two mediocre offenses against two okay defenses. Washington gets a Rose Bowl birth, where I reckon they'll get spanked by a so-so Ohio State squad. Pac-12 was really nothing special this year and this championship was pretty much the perfect capper of the season for the conference.

(5) Oklahoma 39-27 (9) Texas
Probably Oklahoma's crappiest game of the year--they played better in their L to Texas earlier in the year. The Sooners started the game by trying to go low-key, which was exactly what Texas was planning on--really? How is it that Texas was perfectly situated for that? Oklahoma really never did get their offense going but still managed to grind up the Horns. Texas is a nice team, moving in the right direction but they weren't as good as Oklahoma at any point this season (well, except for that week they beat them, I guess....).

(7) Central Florida 56-41 Memphis
Man, UCF really dug themselves a hole but it is a tribute to that overwhelming offense that they spotted a tenacious Memphis squad two quick TD's, sputtered through the first half and still easily covered the spread. Kinda impressed with Memphis that they put up that kind of fight, but once UCF got their feet under them, this game was over. I'm impressed, I'm ready to see Central Florida against a for-real opponent--especially in a year when everyone is playing for 2nd place anyway.

(1) Alabama 35-28 (4) Georgia
I was impressed with Georgia for the first three quarters, but honestly I thought Bama's WR's dropped a lot of balls in the 1st half, missed a lot of plays they would normally make and that's basically what kept UGA in the game. Bama going to their 2nd string QB (who would be an all-American at any other school) for the comeback just shows how much better they are than everyone else this season. UGA did their best, kept the game spicy but they're just not as good as Bama (and if Bama played better this wouldn't have been that close).

(6) Ohio State 45-24 (21) Northwestern
Buckeyes did enough to hold the lead, Northwestern looked like they were going to make a game of it early in the 2nd half but Ohio State still has enough big play ability to easily sock the game away. Northwestern played hard, I liked their moxy, but even as mediocre as Ohio State has been this season, they still have more than enough talent to easily take this game.


Didn't see
(2) Clemson 42-10 Pittsburgh
Yeah, this was predictable, Pitt was up and down all year long while Clemson plowed their way through an undefeated season without even trying hard.

(19) Boise State 16-19 (23) Fresno State
Two tough squads, ones to keep an eye on during the bowl season.

(24) Iowa State 27-24 Drake
Not a strong finish for Iowa State. Guess they only get it up for the tough games.


My final rankings
(1) Alabama (duh)
(2) Clemson (can they beat Bama? I dunno, maybe)
(3) Oklahoma (that offense is really good, they can give Bama or Clemson a game at least, though I don't see them beating either)
(4) Georgia (hung tough with Alabama for 3/4 of a game, more impressive than most everyone else this weekend)
(5) Notre Dame (solid, workmanlike Irish squad, they'll be Clemson's toughest opponent all year, they might could knock them off, we'll see)
(6) Central Florida (I'd rather see them than anyone else in a big game)
(7) Ohio State (after they throttle Washington they'll be the most uninspiring, unimpressive, luckiest 13-1 Rose Bowl-winning Big 10 champion I ever saw)

(8) nobody (LSU has 3 L's, Washington has no offense, Michigan blew their chances, Penn State and Florida weren't all that great this year, if Kentucky wins at Tennessee this would be their spot but they didn't get it done, either--we don't need an 8 team playoff, people!  We don't need it!)

2018-19 NCAA Football (Week 8)

Games I watched (some of):
I watched more baseball than football this Saturday.  But I caught a little of Michigan over Michigan State (Sparty's D was okay but they got no offense going in this game) and Oklahoma over TCU (felt like OU was gonna score every time the ball was snapped). 


Top 25
Handled their business
(1) Alabama, (3) Clemson, (5) LSU, (6) Michigan, (9) Oklahoma, (10) Central Florida, (14) Kentucky, (15) Washington, (18) Penn State, (19) Iowa, (23) Wisconsin

Did not impress
(21) South Florida (I don't know, man, feels like they could've had a more decisive victory hosting UConn; they got the W, but failing to cover against a lightweight conference opponent at home is kinda soft)

Bad beat
(16) North Carolina State (I thought they had a decent shot to make some noise, but Clemson finally busted out their most impressive game of the season, so...uh...not happening for the Wolfpack)
(19) Mississippi State (they weren't gonna win at LSU, you know it, I know it, the American people know it)
(24) Michigan State (frankly, Sparty is overrated at #24 and Michigan has quietly put together a pretty good season so far, this game was about right)

Not so good
(2) Ohio State (yipes! I thought they kinda lucked out against TCU and Penn State, but they got the W's, so you can't front; but, man, getting thumped by Purdue is not good, they can still play spoiler but it's hard to imagine the Buckeyes getting into the playoff with this kind of L on their resume)
(12) Oregon (haven't been impressed with Oregon so far this season, not sure how they got up to #12, but they got pretty well throttled in Pullman; Pac-12, man, it's a blender every year)
(20) Cincinnati (I really thought they'd easily handle Temple, but not so much)


Next week's key matches:
(9) Florida @ (7) Georgia
(18) Iowa @ (17) Penn State
(12) Kentucky @ Missouri
(14) Washington State @ (24) Stanford

2018-19 NFL (Week 2)

Games I watched (some of):
Chiefs 42-37 Steelers

1) Yeah, dude, Pat Mahomes is the shit! and 2) Ooooh, that Steelers D is not good (nor is the Chiefs'). Back and forth and yet it never felt like the Steelers were gonna pull it out.  The Steelers can score--even without LaVeon Bell and probably even without Antonio Brown--but unless that defense comes together, hard to see them going deep in the post-season. The Chiefs, on the other hand, look capable of outscoring just about everyone they play even with their rickety D. Fun game.

Vikings 29-29 Packers
Wow, another fun game. Gotta say: I was really impressed with Kirk Cousins, he got it done in Lambeau, should've gotten the W. Even with Aaron Rodger on the other side, I kinda felt like the Vikings were always gonna pull it out and they should have--two missed FG's in OT is the only reason they didn't. The Packers are as good as Rodgers but the Vikings look as good as I thought they would be.

Jags 31-20 Pats
(Hmmm...did they both score some late points? I don't remember that much scoring) Bortles looked great! The Pats couldn't solve the Jags pass rush and the Pats D did not look so strong. The Pats are still the Pats--it's early--but, I dunno, man, not many playmakers on the offensive side and the defense looks a step behind out there. I had my doubts about the Jags, thought they got hot at the right time last year and while I was suitably impressed with that defense, the offense still looked shaky to me. They looked good in New England, though, and that's a good sign.

Giants 13-20 Cowboys
Saquon Barkley looked good...too bad it doesn't feel like the rest of that NYG offense is going to help him much. That O line does not look sturdy enough to make Eli workable (and I believe he can still be 'workable'). The Cowboys were fine, a strong opening drive, good enough defense. My thought was that Cowboys would struggle, then get hot late (likely hot enough to doom them to another year of Coach Garrett. Don't think anyone will run away with this division.


Surprising results:
Ravens 23-34 Bengals
Thought the Ravens had a good opportunity to steal a division W on the road, thought they were simply better than the Bengals, but I was probably wrong. I think the Bengals might actually be kinda good, think the Ravens will be their typical up/down all year.

Colts 21-9 Redskins
Surprised at how strong that Colts D looked in this game, they could actually be pretty good. The Redskins had a chance to get a W here and they let it get away from them, I thought the Redskins would take a step forward this season but this is exactly the kind of loss I thought they'd avoid.

Eagles 21-27 Bucs
The Bucs are still getting it done (so far), the Eagles are still looking soft out there. Two teams, two brewing QB controversies. Who gets traded first: Nick Foles or Jameis Winston?


Other results (not so surprising):
Panthers 24-31 Falcons
I thought the game would be closer, but not surprised by the result.

Texans 17-20 Titans
I'm still expecting the Texans to step up, guessing that once DeShaun Watson gets his feet under him, they could take off. The Titans are fine, looking 8-8-ish to me (Colts look better than I would've thought, that could be a problem for the Titans).

Dolphins 20-12 Jets
Thought the Jets would get the W at home but division games can always go either way. The Dolphins might be kinda good this year (if the Pats stay soft...could this be the year?).

Chargers 31-20 Bills
Seems like the Chargers took the foot off the gas in the 2nd half, I'm still not terribly impressed by them, though that offense will have good days. The Bills...well...I guess I can see that defense getting stronger but not seeing any offense to speak of yet.

Browns 18-21 Saints
Ehhh, the Saints have the (bad) habit of waiting til the last second to secure their W's so this shouldn't be that shocking--though, man, they were cutting it close in this one. The Browns are getting there, not likely to get too many W's but they've got talent.

Lions 27-30 Niners
Not sure what to think of the Lions piling up 27 points on the road but otherwise the result seems about right.

Cards 0-34 Rams
Yup: Rams are good, Cards are not.

Raiders 19-20 Broncos
The Raiders almost had this but the Broncos made a good comeback. Tough L for the Raiders, a good W for the Broncos.

Seahawks 17-24 Bears
Sounds about right. Little surprised the Seahawks had as much success as they did on that Bears D, but the result seems about right.


Every other week I'll remove two teams from playoff contention. Never done this before, just wanna see how it goes.
Week 2 -- Bills, Cards (these are both easy calls, they're both rebuilding)

2018-18 NCAA Football (Week 3)

Games I watched (some of):
(4) Ohio State 40-28 (15) TCU
Gotta admit: I thought TCU was better. The Buckeyes had a defensive spasm in the 3rd where they blocked a punt and picked off a pass, allowing them to clock 3 TD's in like a minute and a half, game changer.  Before that I thought TCU was quite comfortably in control of this game--man, I was really impressed with TCU WR's, they made a lot of great catches. But the Buckeyes did what they needed to do and once they got the lead, they responded and salted the game away. Really good W for the Buckeyes, tough L for TCU.

(12) LSU 22-21 (7) Auburn
LSU got off to a good start, Auburn clawed back to take the lead, LSU engineered a perfect 4th quarter drive to steal the W. Really a good game, if a little uneven. Both teams made plays when they needed to, both played stout D. I was generally impressed with both (though hard to imagine either of them challenging Alabama in the SEC West). Good W for LSU, tough loss for Auburn.

Vanderbilt 17-22 (8) Notre Dame
Vandy had their chance to take this game late--that's gotta be scary for Notre Dame fans! Vandy is a team that is light on talent but usually strong on fundamentals, if you mess around these guys can beat you. So did Notre Dame take this team lightly or are they just not very good? Shaky W for Notre Dame (2nd in a row for them), good effort from Vandy.


Top 25
Handled their business
(1) Alabama, (2) Clemson, (3) Georgia, (4) Ohio State, (5) Oklahoma, (9) Stanford, (10) Washington, (11) Penn State, (12) LSU, (16) Mississippi State, (19) Michigan, (20) Oregon, (21) Miami, (24) Oklahoma State


Got it done but did not impress
(8) Notre Dame (hmmmm....struggled at home to Vandy after struggling at home to Ball State....how is Michigan feeling right now?)


Bad beat
(15) TCU (except for a defensive burst in the 3rd, TCU was more or less better than the Buckeyes)
(7) Auburn (yeah, a conference loss at home is more than a Bad Beat but LSU is better than advertised and this game was pretty even)
(17) Boise State (I dunno, they kinda got run but it was a road game to a good squad, so I'm calling it a Bad Beat)


Not good
(6) Wisconsin (they don't run up the points on people (re: they're suspect on big spreads) but they forgot to score enough to win this one)
(22) Southern Cal (didn't get much going against Texas, not a good look this early in the season)
(23) Arizona State (didn't see it, have no idea what happened)


Hurricane cancellations (stay strong, Carolinas!)
(13) Virginia Tech, (14) West Virginia, (18) Central Florida

2018-19 NFL (Week 1)

Games I saw (some of):

Bears 23-24 Packers
Oh, man, what a game! Rodgers uber alles! That bomb TD to Allison was the turning point for me: hobbling around on one leg, I assumed that was precisely the pass he couldn't make. Nah, he made it just fine. I knew it was over for the Bears right there. That said, the Bears still had chances on both sides of the ball to finish out that game. The Bears had obstacles: first time coach, a QB still figuring it out, a defense that looked good but is still basically brand new, hostile environment in front of a national audience....but make no mistake Aaron Rodgers was the biggest impediment for the Bears. The Packers were--and still are--my Super Bowl pick, as long as that knee still works (and maybe even if it doesn't), the Packers should plan on going deep in the playoffs. As for the Bears, well this is hardly the first time they've ever lost at Lambeau Field and there's still plenty to build on--Mack was bananas and Smith just barely got his feet wet, that D may be the best in the league.

Cowboys 8-16 Panthers
These could be the two most boring offenses in the league this season. Cowboys just never got anything going for Dak (sprayed passes) or Zeke (didn't hit the holes with confidence) and the defense was fine but nothing special; I thought the Panther got more out of McCaffrey than anything I saw last year: as an underneath option, he really looked like he could be the escape valve that Cam needs. I think the Panthers can get better (if Cam would step up and lead, they'd be fine but he still looks like he's only half paying attention out there) but the Cowboys just looked like they're gonna be mediocre all season long.

Titans 20-27 Dolphins
Fun game, weird game, but a lot of fun. The 1pm game was delayed for lightning twice, so the game just kinda came and went all day long. Didn't get a feel for the action, except that the Dolphins offense impressed me more than the Titans, who suffered major injuries during the game but still never looked any better than the Dolphins. I was lukewarm on both teams (though I think I thought the Dolphins would be better than most people think), but now I'm a little more optimistic about the Dolphins and less so about the Titans.

Bengals 34-23 Colts
Really impressed with Andrew Luck but still totally unimpressed with the rest of the Colts roster. The Bengals were good enough on both sides, I still kinda think the Bengals will be okay. The Colts will go as far as Luck can carry them but I fear another injury coming for him, he has to do too much, no way he holds up for 16 games. If the Bengals can catch the Steelers slippin', they might hang around the playoff race all season long.

Falcons 12-18 Eagles
I picked the Falcons to pull it out in the end (just like last year in the playoffs) and they had their chance but couldn't get it done (just like last year in the playoffs). I thought the Falcons were the better team in the 1st half but they just couldn't get points on the board; Eagles turned it around in the 2nd half but I wasn't exactly blown away by that offense. I thought the Falcons would have a good year but I kinda thought the Eagles would struggle, I think I still think both of those things.


Other results (that surprised me):
Niners 16-24 Vikings

That score isn't a shock, this actually sounds about right...until you dig into the stats. Seems like the Vikings played a flawless game while the Niners struggled all over the place. So...why didn't the Vikings win by 400 points? If the Niners played well on the road I can imagine them still falling by a TD to the Vikings, but if Jimmy G struggled and Kirk Cousins dominated his debut...why was this game close? 

Bucs 48-40 Saints

Okay, this is a shocker! Are the Bucs the Bucs that everyone always (used to) think they're gonna be? Are the Saints finally gonna lose a step and fall to pieces? "No" to the first, the Bucs just had a summer of flying under the radar and the (temporary?) switch to a veteran 2nd stringer seems to have been just the thing to kick off the season; "maybe" to the second question, that offense looked just fine but, yipes, that defense just gave up a gajillion yards to that dude that wasn't good enough for Buffalo or Houston. Okay, seems like the Saints are gonna be up and down all year but I still see them as a division winner and as for the Bucs, come on, man they are born to go 5-11. 

Bills 3-47 Ravens

Not shocked that the Bills are awful but, damn, man, to get dropkicked by Joe Flacco has got to hurt. The Bills have a fading defense, a fading running game, no skill position talent, a rookie QB and don't even look to be above average on special teams. Oh, man, Bills fans can go ahead and start planning for that #1 pick. I had a feeling the Ravens might be kinda good this season, if the Steelers stay this unimpressive, the Ravens might sail into the post-season.

Jets 48-17 Lions

I had the Jets being flat awful this year, this result would suggest that they won't be awful, but I'm not sure this means they'll be any good. The Lions have been in the almost-good-enough-QB ghetto for a while now: when you're QB is better than average but not as good as the top tier QB's, ahhh, man, that's the worst place to be in all of sports. Another coupla years of playing out Stafford's contract (hmmmm, think Belichick can get W's out of Stafford in the post-Brady years?) and then they get to move on. *sigh* And now the Bears have a stout D...and Rodgers is winning games on one leg...and the Vikings are maybe the most complete team in the league....*sigh* As for the Jets, nice start for Savior Sam Darnold, that'll give the salty New Yorkers something to look forward to for a while, but not sure this means they'll actually be any good. 

Other results (no surprise):
Steelers 21-21 Browns
Not a shock, really. Neither team was good enough to win, so they both lost (yeah, in football that's what a tie is). You may be surprised, but look back to Week One last season: Steelers had to come back and snatch the W late--against one of the worst teams in NFL history! The Browns have built some talent, they'll be in games this year--hell, they'll even win one or two--and they'll look most effective against division teams. The Steelers have plenty of talent and know-how but, man, Big Ben is deteriorating badly, not sure the Steelers will get better until they move at QB (there's a Nike poster boy just waiting for the call, even has a Ben-like style, no?).

Texans 20-27 Pats
The Pats won at home. It wasn't a blowout but no big deal. The Pats don't play for style points. The Texans have a lot of room to get better and putting up a good showing in Foxboro is hardly a bad start to the season but everybody knows that O line needs work; the Pats are the Pats, they'll be fine.

Jags 20-15 Giants
Yeah, that seems right. Jags are unspectacular but are probably good enough to sneak more W's than L's; the Giants are uninspiring but will bust out every once in a while.

Chiefs 38-28 Chargers
The Chiefs look like they might awesome (at least on offense), while the Chargers look like...the Chargers.

Seahawks 24-27 Broncos
The Broncos are another squad that I think might be kinda good--or at least good enough to squeak some W's. Yeah, this isn't that great a win but I can see them pulling out a few more so-so wins like this. The Seahawks look kinda awful and, yeah, I think that's gonna hold up (I'd go ahead and sit Russell Wilson, if I was them).

Redskins 24-6 Cards
The Cards look truly terrible, like they're gonna be dueling with the Bills for that #1 pick. On the other hand, I can see the Redskins being kinda good. For the last few years I've thought they looked good when they weren't shooting themselves in the foot and if we've learned anything about Alex Smith, it's that he doesn't shoot himself in the foot. They might not blow anyone away but I can see the Redskins being pretty not-bad all season long.

Rams 33-13 Raiders
Yeah, Rams are good, Raiders are not. Learned nothing from this result that I didn't already know.

2018-19 NCAA Football (Week 2)

Games I saw (some of):
(3) Georgia 41-17 (24) South Carolina
I thought South Carolina would give the Bulldogs a game--and even rationalized the pick-6 Carolina spotted UGA early on. Hey, at halftime it still seemed like an even game. But the 2nd half was all Georgia. Felt like they were gonna score every time they touched the ball and that South Carolina had no chance. Good win for Georgia, tough loss for South Carolina.

UCLA 21-49 (6) Oklahoma
Right off the bat OU got jobbed: went for a big pass over the middle on the first play, I thought it was defensive interference, the refs did not. Then I don't recall the specific play, but UCLA got away with a non-call on their next possession, which ended in a TD. Seems like an early 14-point swing would make a difference but, nah, OU settled in and steadily pummeled the Bruins, who had no offensive attack to speak of. Pointless TD at the end covered the 30 point spread, so...you know...not a total loss for Bruin fans.

(13) Penn State 51-6 Pitt
Didn't see much of this but what I did see was the Nittany Lions thrashing the Panthers mercilessly. Kinda thought Penn State might come in hungover from last year's nail biter against App State, but, no, they came in ready to play.

Samford 26-36 Florida State
Hey, man, until Samford's best defender (Ahmad Gooden--remember that name because that guy'll be playing on Sundays!) went out on a targeting penalty (yeah, it was good call) late in the 3rd quarter, the Seminoles were getting outplayed in every way. The Samford QB was moving the ball, their WR's were making plays, the Samford special teams was better and that kid Gooden lived in FSU's backfield. It wasn't a fluke. But Gooden went out, then QB Francois was able to settle down some, they finally had a good drive in the 4th quarter, then a late pick-6 sealed it. But anyone who watched that game will not be putting money on Florida State this season.



Top 25
Handled their business
(1) Alabama, (3) Georgia, (4) Ohio State, (5) Wisconsin, (6) Oklahoma, (7) Auburn, (9) Washington, (10) Stanford, (11) LSU, (12) Virginia Tech, (13) Penn State, (14) West Virginia, (16) TCU, (18) Mississippi State. (19) Central Florida, (20) Boise State, (21) Michigan, (22) Miami, (23) Oregon

Didn't impress but did what they needed to do
(2) Clemson. I thought I was crazy for thinking Furman actually looked kinda good against Clemson last week, but after they barely squeaked by A&M, Clemson is not exactly blowing me away like they did last season. I dunno, A&M is sometimes sneaky good (and sometimes sneaky bad), it's too early to think Clemson's season is over (but when it all goes wrong, it's not like the signs weren't there).
(8) Notre Dame. Ooooh, they did not look good against Ball State. Not good, man.

Bad beat
(17) USC. Meh, they didn't get blown out by Stanford but they never had much shot at a W.
(24) South Carolina. The game felt close at halftime, but not much longer after that.

Not good
(15) Michigan State. Sparty's always hard to figure but this does not look like a vintage side
(25) Florida. Ha! I can now no longer say I was at the game the last time Kentucky beat Florida (but I can still say was at the game the next-to-last time Kentucky beat Florida and that might last me for a while).

2018-19 NFL Over/Unders

On the one hand I feel like I did more research than ever on the upcoming NFL season; on the other, it all looks exactly the same as last year. And the year before. I dunno, man, somehow paying attention to football doesn't make me understand football any better. Anyway, I went through the whole schedule, picked winners, ended up with this.

AFC East
Pats (11) (over/12-4)
Dolphins (6.5) (over/7-9)
Bills (6) (push/6-10)
Jets (6) (under/2-14)

(12-4) I always kinda assume each year that this is the year it all falls apart for the Pats. Brady and Belichik allow the team to get by on a whole lotta duct tape and the moment something bad happens, that whole team can be pretty bad pretty fast. Is this the year? I don't see why it would be. They're still better than the rest of that division.
(7-9) As for the rest of that division, looks the same as ever to me. Dolphins have nothing at all and win 6-8 games every year. Seven W's seems crazy, but I don't see why not.
(6-10) Buffalo has had O-line problems since the Doug Flutie days (ahh, man, I'd love to have Doug Flutie right now), but usually has a good D, a decent running game and somehow manages to score more than you think possible. This year I don't think they reach their typical 8-8, but not too far off.
(2-14) I'm not buying the Jets, man. They've got their savior, they've finally got a coach that knows what he's doing and the fans are all excited...yeah, do you realize how often that happens? Every year. Every year they're like this. NYC is allergic to winning, the Yanks are still generally good but the rest of the teams have never been good and I don't see that changing any time soon (NYG and the Devils aren't NYC, which is why they are allowed success from time to time, Nets used to have that but they gave it up, *smh*). I bet NYJ isn't any better than Miami or Buffalo. It's cool, they'll be excited about a top five pick, it'll give them something new to complain about (just like every year).

AFC North
Steelers (10.5) (under/10-6)
Ravens (8) (over/10-6)
Bengals (6.5) (over/7-9)
Browns (5.5) (under/3-13)

(10-6) Ben took a step back last year, not hard to see him take another step back this year. That said, that offense could still be really good. And the defense, too. I don't see them going deep in the playoffs but I think they'll make it.
(10-6) Count me firmly in the crowd that loathes Joe Flacco, that guy had one good playoff run and made a whole career around it (impressive in its way). But I can see him being kinda good this year, if he can be good enough to set up the running game, that D is still good enough to keep them in pretty much every game. (I think this team covers a lot of underdog money) But I still got them behind the Steelers.
(7-9) I gotta feeling the Bengals are the team most like last year. They're the kind of organization that runs like clockwork...dull, uninspiring clockwork.
(3-13) The talent is moving in the right direction, I can see them having a good D line and running game (a la last year's Bears). They'll be in more games and should be more fun to watch, but I don't see them winning games until Coach Hue is gone (got a feeling that in the spring of 2019, this may be the coaching gig that everyone wants).

AFC South
Jags (9) (over/11-5)
Texans (8.5) (over/11-5)
Titans (8) (under/7-9)
Colts (6.5) (under/6-10)

(11-5) The Jags finally had some success after years of being terrible, do they keep it going or revert back to crappy form when they remember that their QB sucks? Ehh, I like that D to keep carrying them and that running game to keep bringing in some W's.
(11-5) If the Texans avoid the crushing injuries they had last year, they could be really really good. I think they stay healthy enough to scare some folks.
(7-9) The Titans are a team I could be totally wrong about. They've got decent talent all over the field, I like Mariotta at QB and you gotta think Mike Vrabel is gonna be a better coach than what they've had over the years. That said, I have to see it first, they look like a 7-9 squad to me.
(6-10) The Colts, too, I may be underrating, but Andrew Luck has been out so long, it's hard to imagine he just rides in and kicks ass. Especially since I thought that roster was bad when Luck was there and didn't improve when he left.

AFC West
Chiefs (8.5) (over/11-5)
Broncos (7) (over/8-8)

Chargers (9.5) (under/7-9)

Raiders (8) (under 4-12)

(11-5) I think the Chiefs are the most sturdy, reliable team in that division (and I kinda think the rest of the division is soft anyway). If Mahomes is half as good as the hype-sters believe, I think the Chiefs could handily crush that division.
(8-8) They look like a mess but that D-line is still really really good. If they can run the ball, they'll still be in most games.
(7-9) Yes, I know the Chargers are one those teams that everyone has their eye on. But I'm not seeing it. What's gonna happen this year that didn't happen last year? How have they improved? They have a knack for winning games they should lose and losing games they should win, which in this case leads me to think 7 W's at the most.
(4-12) I wasn't a big fan of the Raiders' chances this year anyway but giving away Kahlil Mack (not good enough deal to let go of one of the best players in the league) just finishes them off, no? Not only are they a mediocre roster, figuring out a new coach, now they just gave away their best player right before the season starts...must be crushing that locker room. I have no reason to think Gruden will be any good at all and it seems like he's trying to remold the whole roster on the fly...not good. They might be really really awful (like, really really awful).

NFC East
Eagles (10) (under/9-7)
Redskins (7) (over/9-7)

Cowboys (8.5) (under/7-9)

Giants (7) (under/6-10)

(9-7) The Eagles are strangely not favored to win a lot of games this year but they do have a tough schedule. I think they're up and down all year but I still like them to win the division.
(9-7) I like the Redskins and I think Alex Smith is kinda perfect for them. I think they're up and down all year and just miss the playoffs.
(7-9) I had the Cowboys playing terrible early on, rallying late but coming up short. Right when you think the Cowboys are brutally bad, they'll go on a late run to sorta seem relevant.
(6-10) I think the Giants have their moments but finish in the bottom of the division (which is probably the worst fate possible for NYG fans).

NFC Central
Vikings (10) (over/13-3)
Packers (10) (over/12-4)

Bears (6.5) (under/6-10)

Lions (7.5) (under/5-11)

(13-3) This is a classic Vikings squad: killer D-line, killer O-line, pretty good skill players. Randy Moss ain't walking through that door but I like Kirk Cousins to step in and manage that offense just fine. The team runs itself, it's up to Cousins to make it work for him. I like them to kinda dominate the regular season.
(12-4) Rodgers makes all teams good. If he plays 16 games, they'll win at least 10. I like them to win 12 and roll into the playoffs (just like I thought last year).
(6-10) I was kinda impressed with the Bears last year, good RB and good D line, that's a good way for a bad team to get good. I like them to be better this year, especially with Kahlil Mack. But even thought I like Trubisky to take a (mild) step forward, they're in a tough division (2019-2020 could be their time).
(5-11) The Lions, man. They're good for five W's, not an un-fun team to watch, but not a team that's gonna win games.

NFC South
Saints (9.5) (over/11-5)
Panthers (9) (over/10-6)
Falcons (9) (over/10-6)
Bucs (6.5) (under/3-13)

(11-5) It feels crazy to pick the Saints to win 11 games but I dunno, why not? I think they kick ass at home, do well enough on the road and take the division.
(10-6) I thought I liked the Falcons better than the Panthers, but I ended up with Panthers 2nd and not making the playoffs. Ouch!
(10-6) I like to Falcons to have a good bounce back year and not make the playoffs either. Ouch!
(3-13) The day will come when the Bucs are good again, when that D is actually as good at it seems like it oughta be, when the QB troubles finally disappear, when the organization gets back to those days when it they were in the conference finals every year. But I don't think that day comes this year. I just don't see how they keep up in that division.


NFC West
Rams (10) (over/11-5)
Niners (8.5) (over/11-5)
Cards (5.5) (under/5-11)

Seahawks (8) (under/4-12)

(11-5) It took me several weeks last season to warm up to the Rams. I did though and I think they're gonna be good again.
(11-5) I'm in on Jimmy G. The way he rolled into that lineup last year and won games--when the team wasn't even trying!--I was impressed right away. That dude's good. (I bet Belichick's been hitting the Pepto hard since that trade) Throw in that the Cards and Seahawks are going in the wrong direction and I like the Niners to kick some ass.
(5-11) Last year they steadily descended into a tired bunch with nothing left to play for. The team deteriorated badly and, though I've always kinda liked Sam Bradford, I don't see how they get better. They got just enough talent to win five-ish games.
(4-12) Last year that offense was Russell Wilson making magic happen--if they'd made the playoffs he'd have been MVP--with no help at the skill positions and a terrible O-line. My guess is another year of that does not get any better and the vaunted D is pretty ordinary now. I can see them being pretty bad.


Playoff Predictions
AFC
Texans over Steelers, Chiefs over Ravens
Pats over Texans, Chiefs over Jags
Chiefs over Pats

NFC
Packers over Eagles, Saints over Niners
Vikings over Saints, Packers over Rams
Packers over Vikings

Super Bowl
Packers over Chiefs (a replay of SB I)


Something about these various numbers don't look right to me and looking back at the end of the season will undoubtedly look bizarre. But, here we are.

2018-19 NCAA Football (Week 1)

I watched (some of):
Louisville 14-51 (1) Alabama
Frankly Alabama didn't even look like they were trying all that hard and they straight pummeled Louisville. The Cardinals are probably not at their best right now but Bama did not let them get much going.

Furman 7-48 (2) Clemson
Frankly I was reasonably impressed with Furman: they played hard, they did not look intimidated, they even made some plays along the way. This was probably the closest 41 point game I've ever seen. Clemson took a while to get going but the sheer depth of talent eventually won out easily.

Oregon State 31-77 (5) Ohio State
Now follow me: the Buckeyes usually start slow and without Urban Meyer I thought Oregon State had a shot at giving them a game; but instead, without Urban Meyer, the team rallied quicker...? Does that make sense? Well, anyway, the Buckeyes came out fast, got a big lead, kinda coasted after halftime. As for Oregon State, man, how do you score 4 TD's and still lose by 40 points?

(6) Washington 16-21 (9) Auburn
Good game. Both these teams were similar, game went back and forth, both played well, Auburn made the plays down the stretch. This is a good W for Auburn and not a bad L for Washington.

(14) Michigan 17-24 (12) Notre Dame
Good game. Notre Dame made the most of their chances, whereas Michigan kinda fumbled around. I like Michigan's backup QB better than the starter, wonder if that'll be a thing for them this year. Wasn't blown away by either team, thought they were both solid and very similar teams. Notre Dame was able to build a lead, Wolverines couldn't get back into the game. Good W for the Irish.

(17) West Virginia 40-14 Tennessee
I kinda expected UT to get into this game, but it didn't happen. WVU ran it up quick and held the momentum all through the 2nd half. They looked good and Tennessee did not.

(8) Miami 17-33 (25) LSU
Man, the Hurricanes never looked into the game. All last season I was skeptical of the Hurricanes and then they won games down the stretch that I thought they'd lose, so now I don't know what to think of them. But after watching LSU dominate them, I'm nowhere near any kind of Hurricans bandwagon. Not sure if LSU looked as good as Auburn (maybe) or Alabama (probably not) but they look like they're gonna be in the mix in the SEC West.



Top 25
Handled their business
(1) Alabama, (2) Clemson, (3) Georgia, (4) Wisconsin, (5) Ohio State, (7) Oklahoma
(9) Auburn, (12) Notre Dame, (13) Stanford, (15) Southern Cal, (16) TCU, (17) West Virginia, (18) Mississippi State, (20) Virginia Tech, (21) Central Florida, (22) Boise State, (24) Oregon, (25) LSU

Didn't impress but did what they needed to do
(10) Penn State (when will people learn to avoid App State on opening week?)
(11) Michigan State (hmmm...feels like Sparty should've made quicker work of this opening day opponent but Utah State's generally not bad, so perhaps this was a good test for them)

Not good
(8) Miami (could be that LSU is wildly underrated but the Hurricanes were never really in this game and that is seriously disappointing for a top 10 squad)
(19) Florida State (again, could be that Virginia Tech is underrated, but the Seminoles did not look good and that is not good for a veteran squad that has ambitions)
(23) Texas (another year, another disappointing match against Maryland)

Bad beat
(6) Washington (Auburn's good, close game, not a bad loss for the Huskies)
(14) Michigan (thought they were even with the Irish, just came up short; disappointing but not a bad loss)

(Ahhhhhhhh, nice to have college football back)

2018 World Cup (Final)

Croatia - France -- France has glided to this point. Watching that semifinal against Belgium was like watching an inter-squad game, the teams were virtually identical in how they possessed, how they moved forward and how they played D. It was like watching twins fist fight, everybody knew the next move. That was a 50/50 game and France won the coin flip. France has as much talent as anyone but their path to this point is a mixed bag: Peru and Australia were not terribly interesting opponents, that France-Denmark game is officially the most boring of the entire tourney, though France-Argentina is perhaps the most exciting, Uruguay without Cavani was pretty toothless, and they got the one perfect strike against Belgium. They've got the skills, they are absolutely capable of striking once, twice even thrice against anyone anywhere at any time. They've got enough defense to keep feeding that offense all day.

I think it's notable that Croatia scored in Extra Time against Russia and England, I think Croatia's game only kicks in after the first 90 minutes. They need to survive and then outlast the opponent. It's worked so far. In Croatia's run, they outworked Nigeria, had more savvy than Argentina, did what needed to be done against Iceland, then wore down Denmark, Russia and England. They never seem dominant, they just hang around, longer they hang, the more likely they are to find a way. They're not overpowering, they're sneaky, pesky, crafty, gritty, gutty, all those John Wayne-type words. They've got veterans and even though it seems like they ought to be worn out, they may be in better shape than everyone else. They're well-practiced now in leaving it all out on the field.

I gotta go with Croatia. Croatia will play the full 90 minutes and be tough to beat even then. I'd give France more of a chance the earlier they score, if they can get an early goal they can relax and go for another, if they can keep Croatia backpedaling for 90 minutes they've got a better chance to pull it out. But Croatia manages to hang on no matter what happens. And they can score, they've got the guile to get PK's, enough size and strength in the box for corners and crosses, enough teamwork and gumption to make plays in the box. They're a cockroach team, France might squish them, but I'll stick with the Croatians.


Belgium 2-0 England. I almost totally forgot about the 3rd place game. Woke up at halftime, caught the 2nd half. Thought Belgium held better possession, looked more dangerous pushing forward, pretty good at keeping England's attack thwarted, not at all surprised they won. My thought going in was that England would be more excited about being there and sneak a W off the Belgians. Belgium is better and they'd already beaten England, they just reminded me of one a those blueblood college football squads that thinks they're gonna get the championship but instead they get shuffled off to the Bluebonnet Bowl and even though they're wildly more talented than their opponent, they end up getting pants-ed by Central Florida because no one gives a fuck about the Bluebonnet Bowl. But once the Belgians got that quick early goal, it gave them the backbone to play hard and just be better than the English, which they were. England had a good run but Croatia and Belgium were better teams, while Sweden and Colombia were not.

2018 World Cup (Semifinal predictions)

France - Belgium -- Of the four remaining teams Belgium has (to my eye) the best offense and the crappiest defense. If they can push the ball forward they'll crack the French back line but if they get pressed at all, they'll get wrecked. France has a good collection of offensive talent, too, and a stiff back line to go with it. Tough call, the two teams are really similar. Who gets loose? Mbappe or Lukaku? Does de Bryne find Hazard or is it Pogba finding Giroud? And which goalie will make the mistake that gets his team bounced? My gut is Belgium is better...but also worse. I dunno, I'll take Belgium (they've already beaten Brazil and England, there's no one left to scare them).

England - Croatia -- Croatia looked excellent against Nigeria, Argentina and Iceland but then waffled against Denmark and Russia, escaping in shootouts both times. At their best they look like the ideal mix of vets and youth, offense and defense, invention and discipline; at their worst, they look tired and too dependent of Modric (who looks listless on occasion). It feels to me like Croatia should beat England, who are a fine but not superlative side. That said, England has played some crafty football to get to this point and though they don't exactly seem loaded with superstars, well, the World Cup is where superstars get made so it wouldn't be that shocking if two weeks from now this English roster looks like an all-star team. England is smart, they don't mess around and when given the chance, they can make plays up front. But they also seem youthful and perhaps overly exuberant and could be beaten by some veteran linkage. Okay, I'll go with Croatia, it feels like they're gonna have more chances around the goal.