2025-26 NBA Playoffs (after one round)

East

Pistons 93-79 Magic

Magic 94-116 Pistons

After getting killed at halftime of Game Five, the Pistons finally turned their game back on and left the Magic in the dust. The Magic have a nice collection of players (which is why ever year we think "this is the year for the Magic!"), but I've never quite understood how they fit together (which is why they've been disappointing for 3 straight years). The Magic blew out the Hornets in the play-in, then won 3 out of 4 against the Pistons, then took a mighty lead to halftime of Game Five....but it was a just a sugar rush, a rare moment when everyone got hot. They couldn't sustain it. I thought Wendell Carter was great for the first few games but he faded down the stretch, Desmond Bane had his moments, too, but not enough of them and Jarrell Suggs is additive on defense but everyone else has to be going for his efforts to really shine through. I have newfound respect for Paulo (Cade Jr.) Banchero, that kid is a monster, but he's just a kid and he didn't have enough around him. The Pistons, a strangely similar team as the Magic, have better veterans and had more sustained success all season long, and though they are still too one-dimensional, at least they know what their dimension is and get back to that model often enough to be a tough out going forward. 

Knicks 140-89 Hawks

Stop! They're already dead! Man, this one was over super fast. OG Anunoby single-handedly destroyed the Hawks in Game Six and everyone else did, too. The Hawks just couldn't get anything going, while the Knicks were scoring in every way possible. Knicks in 6 was about right the whole time, but they did scuffle from time to time and let the Hawks have the feeling that they had a chance. The Hawks are moving in the right direction, I think they finally have a proper core to build around, I still like the coach and they gave the Knicks some truly feisty moments. But they weren't ready for this series and the Knicks were. The Knicks finally took control in the last two games and stifled the upstarts. 

Celtics 93-106 Sixers

Sixers 109-100 Celtics

Somewhere in the 3rd quarter of Game Five, the Celtics just kinda gave up. In that match they overplayed Tatum and Brown, got away from their bench mob style they employed so real all season long and wanted to have a star contest, which led to Joel Embiid coming back from the dead and Jaysun Tatum going back to the injured list. I'm a big fan of Coach Mazzulo but, man, I put this loss on him: he did everything right all season long and then mixed it up going into the post-season and I don't understand why. The bench mob style was working and even if you think that can't go deep in the playoffs, it got you a 3-1 lead in the first round, why not stick to what's working? In the 4th quarter of Game Seven Jaylen Brown finally came alive and there was an opportunity for the Celtics to shoot their way to the next round, but it just didn't happen. I understand if you think you have to tighten up the rotation against the Knicks or Cavs but the open style they played all year long should've worked against the Sixers. As for the Sixers, Tyrese Maxey (the LEADER of this team!) was awesome, Paul George really turned it on in the last few games, I thought rookie VJ Edgecombe was up and down (the Sixers won his good games and lost his bad games), and they were able to get some quality offense out of Embiid. If they can keep their ultra-fast guards in tune with their slow-burn veterans, they could give the Knicks a scare.

Cavs 110-112 (OT) Raptors

Raptors 102-114 Cavs

In Game Six, I thought the Raptors had the game won, like, three different times, but then I thought the Cavs had it won three different times, too! I can't remember a game that went back and forth so late like that. I still thought the Cavs were the better team throughout and really should've finished it off in Game Six. For the Cavs to let this get a 7th game was a real head-scratcher. But the Raptors play hard and took the Cavs to 7 games without Immanuael Quickley or Brandon Ingram, but when Scottie Barnes (*) got into foul trouble in the 3rd quarter of Game Seven, that was pretty much it for Toronto. It was like taking the engine out of a car....it still has a radio, I guess, but its not much of a car. The Cavs felt their anuses tightening but James Harden and Donovan Mitchell were both able to skate through Game Seven without much consternation. Man, Barnes just works so f'n hard, he alone makes the Raptors a pain in the ass, if they could get some real help around him (I should admit at this point I'm not much of an RJ Barrett fan, big guy can make plays from time to time but when push comes to shove he's sloppy and in over his head), the Raptors might be a real contender in the East next year. As for the Cavs, they got good minutes from Dean Wade and Max Strus and there were moments when Evan Mobley really came alive, you can see the outline of a really good team here, we'll see if they can give the Pistons a shock.

West

Nuggets 98-110 Wolves

Jaden McDaniels! Donte DiVincenzo is out, Anthony Edwards is out, no problem, Jaden McDaniels will make up the difference. It felt like the Nuggets finally had their ducks in a row, felt like the best supporting cast they'd had in a while, but Christain Braun wasn't the answer, Cam Johnson was up and down and never really felt right in the rotation and Bruce Brown wasn't the same guy he was when they went on their championship run. Jamal Murray had maybe his best season but he was asked to do too much in the post-season and Nikola Jokic (another MVP season, I say) was just gassed at the end of these games and never felt in command the way he usually does. There's gonna be some serious soul-searching this summer in Denver, because it felt last summer like they'd finally figured it out....and they had not. As for the Wolves, hey man Rudy Gobert has ALWAYS been good against Jokic! And Julius Randall does not back down from any situation and they got good minutes from Naz Reid and Mike Conley and the rest of their rotation was ready for anything. This Wolves squad, assuming they got Edwards back soon, is gonna be a tough out for the Spurs. 

Lakers 98-78 Rockets

Man, as flimsy as the Lakers 3-1 lead felt in this series, in a year when 3-1 leads were going by the wayside, it still never felt like the Rockets were gonna get their shit together. I thought Coach Udoka was the right guy for this roster and I thought Kevin Durant was the right guy to add last summer, but it looks to me like those are the two dudes that kept this team from rising up. Coach Udoka just never found Jabari Smith's role and he never gave the keys to Reed Sheppard--dude, it doesn't matter if you don't like those guys, those are the guys you have! Coach never figured out how to build an offense with them. Instead he turned the team entirely over to KD, who was good enough to pile up stats but not good enough to lead a team to wins in the post-season. I still like most of what this roster has but, man, Durant has to go and I suddenly think the coach has to go, too, even though it wasn't that long ago they felt like the ideal guiding lights. This is Sengun's team, Thompson is the perfect right-hand man, but Jabari and Reed have to find their place on this squad and if they can't work them in, then this team will go nowhere. The Rockets don't need to re-build, they just need to re-think what they've got. As for the Lakers, Lebron, baby, still got it!

Quarterfinals

Cavs @ Pistons

The Cavs really should be the better team and while the Pistons don't play with frenzy the way the Raptors do, they will be more reliable scorers and defenders, which is gonna be just as hard for the Cavs to deal with. The Magic were young guns playing with house money and they caught the Pistons off guard, but the Pistons weathered the storm and are the better (version of the same) team, but the veteran savvy of the Cavs is a totally different matter. The Cavs and Pistons were just waiting for each other, but they both scuffled against younger, hungrier (if dumber) teams that made them each work in a way that feels depleting rather than invigorating. So who has more left in the tank? Well, the Pistons are still too one-dimensional and for all the praise being heaped on Tobias Harris, I thought he mostly sucked until Game Seven; but Harris the vet against the other vets, should probably be a more consistent scorer. Jalen Duren had troubles early on against Wendell Carter, but eventually managed to make the plays necessary; I kinda think against Evan Mobley, it'll be the other way around: Duren should have his way with Mobley early on, it is a matter of whether Mobley can swing the momentum (which is a 50/50 prospect). The supporting cast of the Cavs (Wade, Strus, Schroeder) actually strikes me as better than the Pistons supporting cast (Robinson, Thompson, Stewart, Huerter), but not wildly so and actually Thompson alone can reek the Raptors-style havoc that may pull the Cavs apart. To me this comes down to the Pistons one dimension (Cade Cunningham) versus the Cavs' two-headed monster (Donovan Mitchell, James Harden). If the Cavs can comfortably pass back responsibility and get buckets, they can win this series; but if they struggle then Cade's consistency can rule the day. Though I find the Pistons' one-dimensional-ness a liability, I think it's more reliable than the Cavs. I think the Pistons take this in 7.

Sixers @ Knicks

The Sixers found a potent mix of youthful energy (Maxey, Edgecombe) and veteran contemplation (George, Embiid) against the Celtics and were able to pull the better team apart. Can they do that to the Knicks? Well, the trick to the Knicks is: they will either pull themselves apart or they won't, the opponent doesn't much matter. I think the Knicks are better when Karl-Anthony Towns is aggressive, when Towns is the one setting the scene for the Knicks offense as opposed to Jalen Brunson, who I think is better as the emergency option, the change of pace guy that flips the script. Starting with Towns and moving to Brunson is their best bet, I think, because it gets the supporting cast open shots early on and then morphs them to crashing the boards and/or getting into transition defense. If their energy flows to getting everyone involved on offense first and then defense to close, that just strikes me as the best possible Knicks effort. The Sixers seem overly reliant on Embiid, babying him along early in the game, hoping they can get something out of him later on. To me, this is Maxey's team, you let Maxey figure out the best way to utilize Embiid and just trust that model. That said, Embiid has been effective and if he starts hitting his 3's, then it might really stretch the Knicks defense out of shape, allowing room for Edgecombe to tear shit up. I think the best version of the Knicks is better than the best version of the Sixers, but the break-glass-in-case-of-emergency Sixers will probably be better than whatever the Knicks collapse into. It is important for the Knicks to control these games and I think they will, but I think the Sixers are offbeat enough to make them work. I like Knicks in7

Lakers @ Thunder

I didn't watch a single minute of the Thunder over the Suns. On the one hand, I haven't seen them so I don't know what they look like; on the other hand, I didn't have to watch them, which suggests they're doing just fine and I know exactly what that looks like. The Thunder are the most low-key colossus of my lifetime: they don't rush, they don't fret, they don't dominate, they're just better than you. They don't make dumb mistakes and they don't panic. (**) Are they better than the Lakers? Absolutely! The Lakers have been without Luka Doncic so far in the post-season, I presume he'll be returning soon. The rest of the squad had a nice little run against the Rockets, a perfect team-building exercise, where Hachimura had moments, Luke Kennard looked damn good at times, Austin Reaves stretched his legs after some time off and Deandre Ayton is steadily becoming what they want him to be. And Lebron is still a  maestro. If I'm the Lakers, I'd like to give this iteration of the team a couple games before bringing back Luka. I want to see if this new team concept can really find the gumption to surprise the Thunder in Game One (not impossible). Then we see how OKC reacts, then the Lakers can bring back Luka in Game Three (if he's ready). Then it becomes Luka's team again but ideally with a period of everyone figuring out their best contribution. Meh, its worth something like a shot. I like this Lakers squad, they're playing pretty good and if OKC falters or has some weird out of body experience, I think this Laker team is the kind of team that can rise to the occasion. But I don't think OKC will falter much, they've played well against the Lakers over the years, I don't think they're afraid of Luka or Lebron or the Laker aura. In fact I think they see the Lakers as exactly the kind of team they can finish off pronto. I like the Thunder in 5. 

Wolves @ Spurs

An interesting one. The Spurs are probably a year ahead of schedule, the Wolves have made back-to-back Final Fours. Veteran savvy or youthful exuberance? I like the Spurs, obviously everyone credits Wemby, and he's due some flowers. But I think this is De'Aaron Fox's team and the real marginal growth is coming from Stefon Castle. At this point, Wemby is still just a bonus, which is why they're a year early (***). What is the relationship between Wemby and Gobert? Who has whose number in that matchup? Don't know yet, but we're gonna find out. Losing Divencenzo is a real heart breaker for the Wolves and if Edwards misses significant time, then this is probably a wrap. But if Edwards can counter Fox and McDaniels can muzzle Castle, then this is a real series. Who do the Spurs have to match up with Julius Randle? Randle is the wild card, it feels like the other matchups will neutralize each other, so it is up to Randle to shoot the Wolves into (or out of) the next round. I think the Spurs aren't quite ready, I think Gobert is playing really well right now and gonna take it to Wemby, I think Edwards, McDaniels and Randle can overpower Fox and Castle. I like the Wolves in 6.

(*) How do we get Scottie Barnes and Paulo Banchero together? Or Barnes with Cade and a Thompson twin? Dear God.....

(**) When I first sat down to do my MVP evaluation, I didn't even have Shai Gilgeous in my top 10. This is largely because OKC is so well-balanced that SGA doesn't have to go above and beyond all that often, SGA doesn't have to bust out and put up big numbers because the team beyond him can easily make up for an off night. On the other hand, the team has the luxury to go off from time to time because their leader is so poised and consistent that he makes things easy for everyone else. So is SGA the MVP because he's so slyly awesome or is he not because his supporting cast makes it easy for him? What a beautiful conundrum for OKC to have. 

(***) Oh and if Dillon Harper becomes next year's blow up guy for the Spurs, that means they'll be able to keep Wemby on a pitch count for another year. This isn't even Wemby's team yet--and probably won't be for two more years! Wemby is still just icing, they don't even need him to be cake for another year or two!

2025-26 NBA Playoffs (after 5 games)

East

Pistons 105-113 Magic

Pistons 88-94 Magic

Magic 109-116 Pistons

Okay, with the Magic up 3-1 after 4 games, a complete re-evaluation is in order. The Pistons were the top seed in the East but we all knew they were too one-dimensional; the Magic has a nice batch of talent but this was another season of mediocrity and chaos behind the scenes. Of the play-in teams, the Magic felt the LEAST likely to test the Pistons. The Magic stole Game One, okay that happens. The Pistons rebounded in Game Two as expected. But back in Orlando, the Magic came alive and kinda easily handled the #1 seed in back to back outings. Again, the Magic have nice talent, no doubting that, but Paulo Banchero and Franz Wagner have never been a good match, their coach seems like a weirdo and the bench is nothing special. Felt like the Pistons had been exposed as too thin. Jalen Duren has been getting worked by Wendell Carter (and by his girlfriend on TikTok), Tobias Harris has been underwhelming when the Pistons really need him to be the veteran scorer, Duncan Robinson has moments then disappears, Daniss Jenkins had been a fine discovery off the bench but he seems to have vanished, Kevin Huerter has been injured. That thin bench just keeps looking thinner (oh, and Caris LaVert has been utterly useless, I don't think he's playable). 

I thought the Pistons had turned a corner and the Magic had not. After 5 games, it feels like the other way around. For the Magic, Banchero has been great, Carter has been great, Suggs has been crazy active (but slightly foul prone), and the injury to Wagner hasn't set them back at all. Personally, I still think the Pistons are gonna get this done. I think Cade is the star of this match up and the Magic have already overacheived. The down side is no matter how this turns out, I'm gonna feel bad for the loser: either the Pistons let a great season and #1 seed slip away or the Magic gack up a 3-1 lead (which would pretty much spell the end of their beleaguered coach). Either way, YIPES!

I gotta go with Pistons in Game Six and Seven. I still think they're the better team and Cade has been doing it by himself all year long, shouldn't matter now. 

Celtics 108-100 Sixers

Celtics 128-96 Sixers

Sixers 113-97 Celtics

The Celtics have been the better team throughout this match until Game Five when the Sixers resurrected Joel Embiid and gave their offense an entirely different feel, which inexplicably threw off the Celtics. Embiid was pretty good in the 2nd half, but there was still no reason for the Celtics to let this one get away, they were doing just fine until they just stopped playing midway through the 3rd quarter. Rather then utilizing their very effective bench, they overplayed Brown and Tatum and let Embiid set the tempo....why? I can't help but feel like Coach Mazzulo wanted to go back to Philly. 

Both teams are better on the road, so my guess is the Celtics will finish this is Game Six. For the Celtics it's all about the 3-point shooting, if they can find their range again, this series will over pronto. 

Knicks 108-109 Hawks

Knicks 114-98 Hawks

Hawks 97-126 Knicks

The Knicks are the better side, the Hawks are nice but nothing special, both of the Hawks wins were by a combined 2 points and the only thing keeping them afloat is CJ McCollum's heat check. For the Knicks, OG Anunoby has been a monster, Karl Anthony Towns has been good when he's attacking, Jalen Brunson has taken over when needed and Josh Hart has been additive on defense (and not much on offense). Mikael Bridges has been  kinda awful and the rest of the bench has yet to add much, but the Knicks are the better team and they should've finished this off by now. The Hawks are setting up nicely for next season, but I don't see them moving on to the next round. The Knicks cruised in the last two games, I expect them to win in Game Six. 

Cavs 104-126 Raptors

Cavs 89-93 Raptors

Raptors 120-125 Cavs

This series has been a slog because Scottie Barnes has been playing his ass off. The Cavs still seem like the better team and when they've gotten their offense moving, they've won rather easily. Game Five struck me as where this series will go from here: both teams traded baskets for 3 quarters, then the Raptors went cold down the stretch. If it's a shooting contest, gotta go with the Cavs. But the Raptors work hard and sludge up everything, so this could go seven games, but I still think the Cavs are the better team.  

West

Thunder 121-109 Suns

Thunder 131-122 Suns

I didn't watch one second of this series, don't think I even saw any highlights. Saw the Suns complaining about the refs and people still trying to pretend like the Thunder are "villains". Whatever.

Spurs 120-108 Blazers

Spurs 114-93 Blazers

Blazers 95-114 Spurs

The Blazers had a good season, Dani Avdija busted out, the rotation feels like its ready to take another step forward (and will be welcoming Dame Lillard back next season); unfortunately their brand new owner seems like a cheapskate, he's already low balling their interim coach when he's already likely to be one of the lowest paid coaches in the league (he had a good year, hire him already, good gawd!). That said, the Spurs are better, deeper and already ready to take a step forward. The Spurs had a bit of scare when Wemby went down hard and missed a game and half due to concussion. But even still the Blazers couldn't take advantage and this was over in 5 (like we all knew it would be).

Nuggets 96-113 Wolves

Nuggets 96-112 Wolves

Wolves 113-125 Nuggets

Okay, this was already set to be a bare knuckle brawl. Then in Game Three the Wolves lost Donte DiVincenzo in the first minute and Anthony Edwards just a few minutes later. The Nuggets....lost anyway, because Aaron Gordon is just not 100% right now and the rest of the supporting cast just isn't as good as we thought they would be. The Wolves were up 3-1 after 4 but without two of their main guys. So who's more injured? The Wolves only need 1 more victory but they're missing their best player (and then hopefully would get Edwards back in the next round), while the Nuggets need (now) 2 more wins but they're missing their third best player. The Wolves better win it tonight in Minneapolis or they will be kicking themselves all summer. 

Lakers 112-108 (OT) Rockets

Lakers 96-115 Rockets

Rockets 99-93 Lakers

The Rockets never found any consistency all year long, were playing like shit down the stretch, fell behind 3-0 to the Lakers and then ruled out Kevin Durant (....with an injury? What injury?). Didn't feel like it was going well for them but they did bounce back in the last two games and have some momentum and identity going back home for Game Six and the Lakers are still without Luka Doncic (but have returned Austin Reaves). I think this one is going to Game Seven, but I gotta go with the Lakers to finish it back home. 

2025-26 NBA Playoffs (after 2 games)

East

Magic 112-101 Pistons

Magic 83-98 Pistons

The Magic's surprisingly effective performance in Game One was not as shocking as all that. The Magic rallied through the play-on game and kept it rolling against a Piston squad that hasn't played a meaningful game in weeks--hey, good for them. I had Pistons in 5 and I'm sticking with that pick. In Game Two, the Pistons slunked through the 1st half and then blew the game open right out of halftime and I think that's more representative of the dynamic between these two teams than Game One. The Magic had a nice bubble but I think that's over, I expect the Pistons to be the better team for the next three games. 

Sixers 91-123 Celtics

Sixers 111-97 Celtics

The Sixers taking Game Two was eye-opening but their speed (specifically Maxey and Edgecombe) has the power to overwhelm anyone at any time and I can see them winning another game or two but I still think the Celtics are the better, deeper team and will get through this series. But I'm open to the idea that the Sixers can put a shock into the Celtics (though I still think they're better without Embiid). 

Hawks 102-113 Knicks

Hawks 107-106 Knicks

I thought the Knicks weren't very good in Game One and still won rather easily. I didn't think they're very good in Game Two, either, but were on their way to an easy win when the Hawks suddenly came alive and stole it. I thought this series would be hotly contested and go seven games and I still think that. The Hawks are a nice team but when push comes to shove, the Knicks still have more options to get a win than the Hawks do. 

Raptors 113-126 Cavs

Raptors 105-115 Cavs

The Raptors are a nice team but without Immanuel Quickley they just a man short of keeping up with the Cavs. Quickley may return in Game Three and I would give the Raptors a puncher's chance in the next two games. But not really beyond that. Getting a little push might be a good thing for the Cavs--it might be even better if they just show up and take the next two on the road. The Raptors could still get hot, the Cavs could turn funky, but I doubt it. I think the Cavs will wrap this up fairly quick.  

West

Suns 94-119 Thunder

Suns 107-120 Thunder

Yawn! Devin Booker complaining about the refs after getting thoroughly spanked in the first two games is kinda embarrassing. I hope for the Suns' sake that OKC just finishes this in four, it'll be so much easier for everyone involved. 

Blazers 96-111 Spurs

Blazers 106-103 Spurs

The Blazers just couldn't hang in Game One and frankly were the lesser team in Game Two. But when Wemby went out with a concussion (no word on his availability going forward, but I suspect he'll be out for Game Three), the Blazers were able to spark that into a victory. I like the Blazers but even without Wemby, I think the Spurs are probably the better team. They're both young, so this could still go either way--and without Wemby I don't think anyone would see this as a glorious upset, more just an unfortunate showing for a Spurs team that is probably already a year ahead of schedule anyway. This is an interesting series, was gonna be a fun watch either way but if the Spurs have to do this without Wemby, it'll be a hell of a test for them--and it wouldn't be a shock if the Blazers move on to the next round. 

Wolves 105-116 Nuggets

Wolves 119-114 Nuggets

Even though the Nuggets have a better supporting cast than they've had in a while, they are still too reliant on Jokic and Murray, who both looked gassed in the 4th quarters of these games. Jokic's shooting hasn't been great, while the Wolves seem to be rounding into shape. I had the Nuggets making the final four, but the Wolves could tip this one over real quick in the next two games (and if Wemby can't make it back....dang, man, it could be the Wolves in the final four again).

Rockets 98-107 Lakers

Rockets 94-101 Lakers

Yipes! The Rockets look like absolute shit. The Lakers aren't even doing anything and they cruised in these first two games. The Rockets offense is just not good--Coach Udoka: it really doesn't even matter if you don't like Reed Sheppard, he's all you've got! Udoka's inability to find a groove with Sheppard is killing this team. And--okay, I'll be that guy--Kevin Durant's one man show isn't helping either. They've got to root out the depth of this lineup to find a way to move on and relying on Durant to do everything just isn't gonna get it done. Meanwhile, the Lakers are resting their two best scorers and have encountered no obstacle whatsoever. I thought the Rockets would find themselves in the post-season and I was wrong. Unless Sengun takes over, this team is not gonna win a single game. 

2025-26 NBA Playoff Predictions

East

Heat 126-127 (OT) Hornets

I was curious to see if the underachieving Heat (right? I mean they're supposed to be better than 10th in the East, right?) could give it to the overachieving Hornets (right? I mean the Hornets have sucked for so long that finishing 9th in the East is worth hanging a banner, right?). The Hornets had a stretch around the all-star break where they were arguably the best team in the league, while Miami had one of their weird injury-plagued, funky rotation seasons. Miami has at least been here before, while the Hornets haven't been anywhere in a long long time. Well, it was a fun game. I can't even count how many times the Heat bungled this game in regulation and again in OT. But bungle it they did and LaMelo streaked from end to end to sneak a buzzer beater layup and a W. (*) So the Heat got bounced and the Hornets get to keep playing. 

Magic 97-109 Sixers

The Magic have had such a woeful offense all year (well, for a few years now), that I can't say that I was surprised by this result. Philly's speed alone would outscore the Magic. So Philly are headed to Boston as your #7 seed and the Magic are headed back to Orlando for a second chance.

Hornets 90-121 Magic

If Bam finishes out the first game in Charlotte, don't you think Miami gives Orlando a much rougher time than the Hornets did? Well, I sure think so. This one was over quick as Charlotte just sorta forgot to show up. The Magic were hitting on all cylinders--something they rarely do!--and this match was a laugher long before halftime. (**) 

(8) Magic @ (1) Pistons (I'll take Pistons in 5)

The Pistons took a leap this season behind a for-real MVP season by Cade Cunnigham. Worth remembering that when Cade got hurt (collapsed lung) near the end of the season, the team rallied without him and held on to the #1 seed. Dang, that was impressive--I totally wrote off the Pistons at that moment. I love a good youth movement squad and though it was about time for Cade to blow up, I was skeptical of the Pistons for most of the season because they just seem too one-dimensional, not enough depth, not enough seasoning, not sure about the coach. But the way they carried on when their leader went down showed me something. And the horrible offense of the Magic is not likely to perturb the Pistons. Now the Hornets could have given the Pistons a struggle, the Heat might've outworked them, the Sixers speed surely would've had them reeling....but the Magic? No worries. I think the Pistons will cruise into the 2nd round. 

(7) Sixers @ (2) Celtics (I'll take Celtics in 5)

The Sixers are Tyrese Maxey's squad now (and Edgecombe's, too). The idea that they need Joel Embiid to carry them was always fanciful (full disclosure: I was never an Embiid guy), but now it seems downright lunacy to think they need Embiid. Quite the opposite! I think they're better off without him. That said, either way, I think the Celtics are well disciplined, deep and they have played so hard, so well, all season long, I don't see any reason why the Sixers would interrupt them. I think the Celtics mail in one game in Philly (I would bet it's Game Four) and then wrap it up back in Boston. 

(6) Hawks @ (3) Knicks (I'll take Knicks in 7)

This should be a good one. The Knicks are a nice team but I thought they wildly overachieved last year: beat the Pistons in 6--but were the lesser team in all 6 games!, beat the Celtics in 5--but were the lesser team in all 5 games!, fell to the Pacers, who were the better team throughout. People lost their minds when they fired Coach Thibodeau but I thought it was the right move (***). They have a nice collection of talent but they are a weird fit and sometimes that offense becomes standing around watching Brunson go to work (there are worse ways to go). If the Knicks ever find their rhythm, they could be the best team in the league; but until they do, they're actually quite vulnerable to falling prey to a hard working squad that knows who they are. Are the Hawks that squad? They've definitely had moments of feeling that way since they finally got out from under the Trae Young cloud (whose greatest NBA success came when he single-handedly stomped the Knicks in the playoffs a few years back). The Hawks have fallen a bit from their peak this season but if they can get back to that, they can sting this Knicks team. But I think in the end, Brunson will have a monster Game Seven and drag the Knicks into the 2nd round. 

(5) Raptors @ (4) Cavs (I'll take Cavs in 6)

(Sitting here watching Game One, but it hasn't really changed my thinking) The Raptors are a nice squad that are unfortunately overpaid and therefore seem like a disappointment when actually they are a nice squad. The Cavs added James Harden, which should center their offense, allowing Donovan Mitchell to be more additive rather than load-bearing. The Cavs have been kinda disappointing this season but I think they've been waiting for the post-season and they'll tighten up from here. I like the Raptors and they're frisky on the road, but they're just not as deep or reliable as the Cavs. 

West

Blazers 114-110 Suns

Interesting game. Both teams made wild swings back and forth, so the Suns are down by 12, suddenly they're up by 8--and vice versa. Normally a close game stays within a range of 4-6 points with each team going slightly back and forth, but this one had big runs by both teams. And here, the Blazers made the last big run and held off the Suns. I was kinda surprised because it seems to me that all season long the Suns have been the team that beat the teams they should beat and loses to the teams they should lose to; now this sounds rather basic but I assure you, the NBA doesn't work that way. Everybody has good night and bad night, good stretches and bad stretches, but the Suns this year were pretty consistent all year long, they didn't have a lot of upsets nor did they suffer a lot of upsets. So....the Blazers are better than the Suns (at home), right? I can dig it. The Blazers are an interesting team that had a good thing going by season's end. 

Warriors 126-121 Clippers

Everyone will remember this as the Clippers falling apart and Steph Curry as the big hero. But what I saw was Al Horford getting buckets down the stretch and the Clippers being unprepared for points from the scrubs. The Clippers should've won, they were the better team for most of this match, but the Clippers gon' Clip.

Warriors 111-96 Suns

The Warriors were never really in this game. Their philosophy is keep the game close and let Steph go nuts down the stretch. But Steph never warmed up and the Warriors couldn't keep up. Draymond was able to get Devin Booker ejected by the end but I thought that was bull shit! If the ref wanted to warn them both, that's fine; if he wanted to just toss Draymond, that's fine; but the game had already re-started, Booker was literally dribbling the ball when the ref stopped play to throw them both out. I didn't like the call and I still don't. Draymond is a great player but, god, what an annoying dick! The good news is that his season is over. 

East 1st round

(8) Suns @ (1) Thunder (I'll take Thunder in 5)

I like the Suns, as I said I think they've played to their competition as well as any team I've seen in eons. Well, the Thunder are way better than the Suns, so I don't see the Suns winning too many games. The Thunder have been murdering people all season long (that's two season in a row, if you're paying attention) and I don't see the Suns standing in their way. 

(7) Blazers @ (2) Spurs (I'll take Spurs in 6)

The Spurs blew up this season because Wembyama decided he was ready to play (though he was still clearly on a pitch count all year long--does that continue in the playoffs?) and because the supporting cast around him was a little better than everyone thought they'd be. I'm not surprised the Spurs were good, but even I thought it was a little early for them to get to 2nd place in the vaunted West. The Blazers have been down for a while but with the emergence of Dani Avdija, the Blazers looked as good as they have in a while. Is Donovan Clingen enough to slow down Wemby? Can Avidja and Shaedon Sharpe match the wing scoring of Fox, Castle and Harper? As much as I like the momentum of the Blazers, I think the answer to both of those questions is "no". I like the Blazers to make the Spurs work--everyone should be pissed that the Spurs will have to get better rather than just cruising into the next round--but I just don't see the Blazers outscoring the Spurs more than once or twice in a 7-game series. 

(6) Wolves @ (3) Nuggets (I'll take Nuggets in 7)

Gonna be a fun one.  These two have played a few times over the years with some crazy-town results. I think the Nuggets are better than they've been in a while (****), while the Wolves feel like they're sleepwalking. Are the Wolves just biding their time til the playoffs? They can tell themselves that but I don't think the Wolves were better this year in any way than the previous year and that's not a good sign. I still think the series goes 7 but I can't shake the notion that the Nuggets are waaaaaaay better than the Wolves.

(5) Rockets @ (4) Lakers (I'll take Rockets in 6)

Coupla different thoughts on this one: if Luka and Austin Reeves aren't available for the Lakers, than this will be over quickly. But if it is even strength (which is what I'm counting on), I think the conventional wisdom is that the Rockets are sluggish and weird while the Lakers are rounding into shape and looking good at the right time. But I'm gonna throw in a curve ball: I think the Rockets are not built for the regular season; not that their talent is just waiting til the bright lights come on, but that the squad as a whole isn't at their best until they come up against a singular opponent to focus on. Playing the same team 7 times in a row should actually help the Rockets. And I think it will. I think the Rockets will be better in the post-season (meaning this Western conference playoffs are gonna be freakin' awesome).

I think I'll come back between rounds and re-do all my predictions, but for giggles I'll go ahead and play the rest of the playoffs out here and now. 

Eastern Conference Semifinals

(4) Cavs @ (1) Pistons (I'll take Cavs in 6)

(3) Knicks @ (2) Celtics (I'll take Celtics in 5)

Western Conference Semifinals

(5) Rockets @ (1) Thunder (I'll take Thunder in 7)

(3) Nuggets @ (2) Spurs (I'll take Nuggets in 7)

Eastern Conference Finals

(4) Cavs @ (2) Celtics (I'll take Celtics in 6)

Western Conference Finals

(3) Nuggets @ (1) Thunder (I'll take Thunder in 7)

NBA Finals

Celtics @ Thunder (I'll take Thunder in 7)

The Thunder have been the best team all year long. The Spurs have been breathing down their necks and shown a notable confidence against the Thunder, but I don't think they're ready to move on in the playoffs just yet, one last heartbreak is what Wemby needs to become a true killer. As for the Thunder, they are just casually better than everyone even if they never quite feel dominant. This Spurs team has come real far, real fast but they still have to beat Jokic and rejuvenated Murray in the playoffs and are we sure they're ready to do that? (I am not) I love where the Spurs are going, but they're not there just yet. Can the Thunder beat the Nuggets? They can and I think they will.

That the Celtics should've mailed this season in was a pretty popular opinion last summer. They had just lost Jaysum Tatum to a gruesome season-long injury, traded away Holliday and Porzingis, let Al Horford and Luke Kornet walk, felt like they'd be replacing too much of their rotation to have a shot; but I was dubious at the time (losing Horford, Porzingis and even Holliday was not much of a loss, indeed moving from noisy veterans was probably addition by subtraction). And while I'm not shocked the Celtics were actually really good this year, I am shocked how much better than the Knicks, Cavs and Magic they were--and how quickly Jaysun Tatum came back from injury ready to rock. It'll be a weird ride into the playoffs for the Celtics, but at this moment I think they're the best team in the East. 

(*) Oh, and LaMelo clearly maliciously grabbed Bam Adebayo's ankle and forced him out of the game in the 1st quarter and...well....nobody seemed to care. I was puzzled by this in the moment and still puzzled a few days later. So, we're just injuring dudes now and nothing happens? So, we're Rollerball now?

(**) Want to know why the Hornets made such an impressive leap this regular season? Because in last year's draft they added, Kon Knueppel, Sion James and Ryan Kalkbrenner, who all played major minutes for this team. They added three impact rotational guys that beefed-up their depth and all from rookie contract players. Wanna know why they got bounced in the play-in? Same reason. Rook don't win in the post, yo.

(***) Quick question: when was Coach Thibs EVER good? All I see is a guy that runs players into the ground, destroys teams and never goes deep in the playoffs. What am I missing?

(****) I was planning on doing my NBA season awards in the same post as my post-season predictions, but I'm double checking my number-crunching, really marinating in the stats this year, so my awards post won't be til later. I say all this to suggest that....I think Jokic is my MVP (again) and Jamal Murray is not gonna be far off. So when I say the Nuggets are better than they've been in a while, what I mean is that Jokic and Murray BOTH may be better than ever. We'll see how it goes. 

2025-26 Champions League Quarterfinals (2nd leg)

Quarterfinals 2nd Leg

Atletico Madrid 1-2 Barcelona (agg 3-2)

Wow!  I figured Barca would come out swinging, so I was not too surprised when they scored in the 5th minute (though the bad giveaway in Atletico's defensive half was a bit odd).  Not surprised, either, when Barca tied up the aggregate just a few minutes later, on some crazy action in front of the goal. But I was pleasantly surprised when Atletico responded before halftime and re-took the lead.  (Interesting that the refs missed rather obvious corner kicks for each team, either or both really could've shaken up this match--both sides were balling out in the 1st half). In the 2nd half, I thought Atletico was the better side, felt just as dangerous on the attack and even tighter in the back. I thought the off-sides call that negated what would've been the tying goal for Barca was the right call, but I thought the red card on the defense a little later on was a bit much (the other defender was right there and the contact was a foul but not a dangerous play or anything). I knew Barca would be back in this game, knew this was gonna be a good one. Seeing Atletico go through feels like the better team won.  

Liverpool 0-2 Paris SG (agg 0-4)

Yeah, Liverpool just never got anything going in either leg. They held out as long as they could, PSG didn't seal it til relatively late in the 2nd half. But, Liverpool had no attack at all, so its not like there was much chance of them tying it up. PSG is the best team I've seen in this tourney, Liverpool is a nice squad but they just don't have the firepower to hang with this loaded PSG squad. 

Bayern Munich 4-3 Real Madrid (agg 6-4)

What a great match! Back and forth action throughout, both teams were dangerous at all times, tons of goals, and capped off by one of the most cold-blooded goals I've ever seen! Bayern is back, man! They've been good-but-just-not-there for a few years now but they seem to have shed whatever was ailing them--and they seem to have pawned it off on Real Madrid. Real is still really really good but this year's model is snakebit: bounced in the Copa del Rey (in the round of 16!), quarters in the Champions League (to rejuvenated Bayern Munich), and a distant 2nd in La Liga (to Barca), where they have a ton a of head scratching finishes this season. Gonna be a struggle of a summer in Madrid (well, not on the Atletico side of town).

Arsenal 0-0 Sporting CP (agg 1-0)

Sporting is rugged, man, nothing comes easy against these guys. But they also don't sport much of an attack, so not surprising that Arsenal was able to make their one goal (their one moment of brilliance in 180 minutes against Sporting) hold up. Tricky now, though: Sporting made for such a weird competitor, it's kinda hard to tell how good Arsenal is. 

Semifinals

Paris Saint-Germain - Bayern Munich

This is your final right here. I think PSG is the best team I've seen in this tourney, I think Bayern is the 2nd best team--and arguably playing even better right now. PSG better get a decisive result at home because going back to Munich is not gonna be much fun this year. *popcorn munch*

Atletico Madrid - Arsenal 

Atletico had to go against well-known foe (Barcelona), while Arsenal went up against a scrappy batch of nobodies (Sporting CP), so.....which is the better team? On the one hand, it's easy to say that Arsenal probably would've fallen to Barcelona; on the other, I can totally see Sporting CP giving Atletico Madrid the fight of their lives. So....which is the better team? I have no idea. My gut says Atletico has been playing harder and finding more success this season but Arsenal is right there with them....so which is the better team? I look forward to finding out. 

2026 Masters

Could Rory go back to back?

Well, he sure dominated the shit out of the first two days at Augusta, holding the largest lead ever after the 2nd round. He was nothing special on day three, still in the lead but with the peloton coming in his rearview. On Sunday, Rory (like last year) fumbled early and the lead was gone almost instantly; but (like last year) he settled in and played a competent, if rather vanilla front 9.  He was back to the top of the totem pole fairly quickly and even though there were nips at his heels, he clamped down on the back 9 (unlike last year, when he stumbled badly across the midway point, only to rally into a playoff). There was action all day Sunday, plenty to keep an eye on, but looking back on it, Rory was pretty comfortable for the last 2 hours of this match. 

Rory did indeed dominate Thursday and Friday, I think it's notable that none of the dudes that spent on time on the leaderboard with Rory, managed to catch on Saturday or Sunday. Burns and Reed hung around and finished well, but don't remember either of them on Sunday. 

Sunday was Scheffler, Rose, Young, Hatton, Henley, Morakawa, Schauffle and Spieth.  

Scottie Scheffler was pretty good on Thursday, not so good on Friday and then killed it Saturday and Sunday to end up in 2nd (though I don't recall him ever in first at any point). Felt like Scheffler wasn't up for it this year, but that's just how damn good he is that this looked like he was sucking. This dude is one of the all time great ballers I've ever seen, he's as cool and ready to win and play to the end m'f'ers I've ever seen. Feels weird to anoint him this quickly and I'm by no means some huge golf guy, but I've been watching it since I was a kid, I've seen all the golfers. Tiger was the flat out most winningest dude I ever saw and though Scheffler isn't quite the unstoppable robot that prime Tiger was, but he also doesn't malfunction the way Tiger would from time to time. He's going to end up with a ton of top 5 finishes at Majors, I'm guessing.

Justin Rose was steady good all the way through, killed in on the front 9 on Sunday, then bogeyed 11 and 12 and it zapped him, he just wasn't the same down the stretch. Had a hell of a tournament, he was good all four days, just needed to be a little better at the end, he might've stolen himself a jacket. 

I don't even know who Cam Young is, but he was pretty fascinating on Sunday, some crazy ups and downs for that guy.  

Tyrell Hatton was up and down: great on Friday and Sunday, mediocre on Thursday and Saturday. He hit some great shots, all good on Sunday, just couldn't catch Rory's lead. 

Russell Henley went nuts on Saturday and Sunday, never got high enough up the leaderboard to catch my eye, he was a late riser. Good finish. 

Morakawa, Schauffle and Spieth were sneaky fun to watch on Sunday, nice highlights.  

I like Rory, I'm not enough of a golf nerd to really get into the weeds of the fanboy subcultures around these players (punk rock had rabbit holes, I'm sure the PGA Tour does, too), but Rory seems like an okay joe to me. Hell of a shooter in his youth, wandered in the wilderness for a bit and is now firmly back at the top of the mountain. Joins Nicklaus, Faldo, and Tiger as the only back to back winners at the Masters. Good for him, he deserves to be remembered with the all-timers. 

2025-26 Champions League (Quarterfinals)

1st Leg

Real Madrid 1-2 Bayern Munich

Wonderful soccer! Both teams were dangerous all the way through, Bayern was able to finish right before half and then again right after, but Real never went away, back and forth action and Madrid was able to claw back a goal. Over the last few years, Bayern has been close but they just haven't been themselves lately--they're starting to look like the old Bayern again. Real is strong, they can be frisky on the road, but I think Bayern finishes this back home. Ought to be a classic either way. 

Sporting CP 0-1 Arsenal

Arsenal's goal came in the 90th minute, Havertz finds the hole in the defense, expertly takes down the pass and sneaks it past the keeper. Whew! The whole match long I was thinking the Arsenal was the better team, the more confident in possession, but Sporting just keeps coming, they never let up, and if I was an Arsenal fan I'd sure feel better with a goal on the road. Didn't feel like that goal was coming, but they snuck one in at the last minute and I think Arsenal's looking pretty good going back home. That said, Sporting is relentless, they don't know how to stop, so Arsenal should coming out looking to add to that lead. 

Barcelona 0-2 Atletico Madrid

Just not Barca's day, seemed like every promising attack went awry, unlucky bounces on defense, goofy red card, Atletico just kinda did whatever they wanted on this day. They'll probably regret not scoring more because I doubt Barca will be this bad in the return match. Atletico's looking good but I wouldn't count out Barca just yet.  

Paris-St. Germain 2-0 Liverpool

Liverpool's press defense was rugged for about 10 minutes--didn't feel like PSG was ever gonna cross midfield! But PSG did, got into the box, scored a weird-looking goal and that was that. Liverpool never got any offense going, PSG thoroughly dominated the 2nd half. I suppose Liverpool has a puncher's chance back at home, but PSG is clearly the better team and with a two goal advantage, I'd be pretty surprised if Liverpool gets 'em back.   

2026 NCAA (Final Four and Final)

(3) Illinois 62-71 (2) Connecticut

UConn made more shots than Illinois. Sounds rather basic but it felt to me like both teams were getting shots, getting the offense they wanted to get, UConn converted more than Illinois did and that was about it. I think UConn is the most puzzling team of recent times: they're right there every year and I generally don't understand why. I don't see anything special about UConn at all, don't understand how they did so well this season or in this tourney. If Illinois just knocks down some shots, I think they would've won and I feel like I could say that about most of UConn's opponents. I dunno, I just don't understand why they've had so much success.  

(1) Michigan 91-73 (1) Arizona

I thought this one was gonna be a classic but, no, Michigan pretty much shut them down from beginning to end. Arizona had a burst about 10 minutes into the 1st half where they tied it up, but that was the end of that. Michigan ran off before haltime and buried them rather easily in the 2nd half. I was blown away by Arizona's scoring potential against Purdue, thought it would translate to Michigan, but no it did not. I'd be kinda shocked if Michigan didn't mop the floor with UConn.

(2) Connecticut 63-69 (1) Michigan

A rather unsatisfying game. Michigan was the better team but they never could extend their lead or really dominate the action, so UConn hung around even though they weren't really shooting all that well. The refs were letting them on beat on each other so the stretch run of the game was a lot of fouls, replays, clumsy play. I thought Michigan should've pounded UConn and looking back on it....they absolutely should have pounded UConn. But Michigan had their own shooting woes and the style of the refs just slowed everything down and kept giving UConn chances. The Huskies couldn't take advantage of the opportunities but it still made for a sludgy game where the better team felt bridled, instead of unleashing an all-timer of an ass-whippin'. Wolverines are your champs! They really were the best team all through the tourney, one of the best of the regular season, a well put-together collection of length and speed. I doubt this team even hit their peak this season--they could've absolutely demolished the Final but the game itself slowed them down. 

2026 NCAA Tournament (Elite 8)

Games I watched (some of):

(9) Iowa 59-71 (3) Illinois

Iowa started hot, just couldn't keep up the offense. Illinois is a grinding team, not the most talented but gonna be a tough out. 

(2) Purdue 79-64 (1) Arizona

Wow, Arizona just took Purdue apart. Never felt like the Boilermakers were even in this game. Arizona scores all over the place, I think they're looking pretty good. 

Didn't see:

(2) Connecticut 73-72 (1) Duke

All I saw was literally the final 10 seconds or so, the entire play where Duke gacks it up on the full court press and UConn drains a 35 footer at the buzzer to win it. Duke dominated the 1st half, felt like they were cruising all through the 2nd half, then suddenly with 10 seconds left the game was actually on the line. Man, I love watching Duke lose, they come up with some interesting ways to do it. 

(6) Tennessee 62-95 (1) Michigan

Not even close, over quick. Michigan just stifles all comers.

2026 NCAA Tournament (Sweet 16)

Games I watched (some of): 

(11) Texas 77-79 (2) Purdue

I thought Texas was the better team for most of the game, but Purdue got late buckets and UT faltered, so the Boilermakers are moving on. Too bad for the Longhorns, this was a winnable game for them. Purdue is a nice team but I suspect this is as far as they go. 

(9) Iowa 77-71 (4) Nebraska

Nebraska got off to a hot start--and if they could've kept it going, they would've won easily. But as the game wore on, their shooting completely fell off. Iowa is gonna be a tough out: they play as a unit, they don't really rely on anyone to do anything, they're all in lockstep and as Nebraska peaked and faded, Iowa just steadily played their game and got the W.

(3) Illinois 65-55 (2) Houston

This Houston team didn't have the depth that they've had in recent years. Illinois was able to control possessions and had more offense all the way through. 

(5) St. John's 75-80 (1) Duke

The two teams were pretty even but in the final minutes, Duke had the star power and St. John's didn't. Sound simplistic but Duke made the plays in the final handful of possessions and St. John's just couldn't keep up. The first 39 minutes, though, were pretty even--maybe St. John's was even a little better. 

(4) Alabama 77-90 (1) Michigan

Back and forth all through the 1st half, even at the break. I felt like Michigan's ability to keep the scoring going would be better than Alabama's, and I was right. The Wolverines are good at every position and the depth just won out over the Tide.

(6) Tennessee 76-62 (2) Iowa State

I thought UT was just flat out better than Iowa State. Iowa State just suffered a major injury, but even still I was surprised how easy it looked for the Vols to control the match. 

The ones I missed: 

(4) Arkansas 88-109 (1) Arizona

I missed this one though it felt like the marquee match of the round. Arizona held the lead pretty much throughout and steadily piled on after halftime. This Arkansas team was nice, felt like they had everything they needed but never really took command in any way. Arizona is one of those casually good teams that might be staggeringly better than everyone else or they may get stomped in the next match--hard to tell.

(3) Michigan State 63-67 (2) Connecticut

UConn jumped out to an early lead, seemed like the whole rest of the game was Michigan State chipping away. chipping away, but then coming up just short. The Spartans are a nice defensive squad, but their offense was always kinda suspect and when they got behind early, it didn't feel like they would make up the gap. I don't get this UConn squad, I can't tell if they're any good or not. 

2026 NCAA Tournament (Day 4)

Games I watched (some of):

(7) Miami 69-79 (2) Purdue

Miami did well to hang for a while, every time it felt like Purdue had finally finished them off, the Hurricanes would come roaring back. The game was a bit closer--certainly more tense--than the score would suggest. Purdue is a nice team but I don't see them as a champion, I can't imagine they'll go undefeated from here. 

(7) Kentucky 63-82 (2) Iowa State

UK started off hot but they weren't able to keep that going for very long. Iowa State is nice team, deceptively long at every position and feature of batch of pretty good shooters. I can see the Cyclones winning it all (just sayin').

(5) St. John's 67-65 (4) Kansas

What an ending! St. John's had a decent lead through most of the game, Kansas warmed up late, whittled the lead down to nothing with about 14 seconds left. Because KU had only committed 2 fouls (who the fuck only two fouls in an entire half of basketball?!?!?), they were able to run off most of the remaining time by just fouling over and over. But with 3 seconds left and no more fouls to give, St. John's was able to get loose up the middle straight to the basket for the layup at the buzzer. Beautiful! I was kinda lukewarm on both of these teams all season long but I think the Johnies are getting hot at the right time, if they can keep their 3-point shooting going, they can hang.

(6) Tennessee 79-72 (3) Virginia

I thought Tennessee was the better side throughout, but UVA came back late and really made it tense in the last few minutes. But UVA just didn't have the scoring to keep up and UT milked the lead to close out the game. Not a huge fan of UT, but they if they can get hot from outside, they'll be a tough out.

(9) Iowa 73-72 (1) Florida

I figured Florida would pummel Iowa, but I was intrigued when I noticed the Hawkeyes up by double digits at halftime. Florida floundered around for a little while into the 2nd half but then they found themselves and took control of the game. So--and I watched the rest of the game and I still don't know--how was Iowa even close enough to hit a late shot on them? I'm puzzled. It felt like with about 12 minutes to go, Florida righted the ship and had full control, but somehow Iowa hung around and with 5 seconds left they were only down by 2. This is the first real shocker of the tourney for me, I thought Florida was a shoo-in for the Elite 8 and I fully expected them to be in the mix at the end of the tourney. I watched it and I still don't understand how Iowa won, but they hustle and when they get hot, they've shown they can win.  

Games I caught on the scoreboard ticker:

(9) Utah State 66-78 (1) Arizona

Not exactly a thumping but it looked like the Wildcats were in control throughout.

(7) UCLA 57-73 (2) Connecticut

Back and forth for a while, then UConn finished them off, I take it.  

(5) Texas Tech 65-90 (4) Alabama

Hmmm....I thought Bama was a major upset possibility and I thought Tech was a pretty solid team that would probably finish off the Tide. But, dang, it looks like Bama just took it to 'em from the gitty.

2026 NCAA Tournament (Day 3)

Games I watched (some of):

(9) St. Louis 72-95 (1) Michigan

Good win for Michigan. St. Louis would have moments, but the Wolverines did well to keep their offense in check. The game was mostly closer than this, Michigan kinda ran off and left them in the last 10 mins. Michigan looks long and fast all over the court and they've got scoring off the bench, they're looking good.

(6) Louisville 69-77 (3) Michigan State

Louisville was gritty defensively just like Michigan State, but the Spartans still had more offense. Similar teams, I thought, but MSU knocked down shots better and were the better team. 

(9) Texas Christian 58-81 (1) Duke

TCU hung for a little while but early in the 2nd half, Duke started getting buckets and TCU could not hang. Duke looked pretty strong here. 

(11) Texas 74-68 (3) Gonzaga

I kept waiting for Gonzaga to take control but they never did. I wasn't that in on the Longhorns but they possessed and moved the ball well today and Gonzaga had no answer. Good win for Texas. 

(5) Vanderbilt 72-74 (4) Nebraska

Fun game! Nebraska moves the ball and gets up good shots and here they made Vandy look positively slow and lumbering, which is bizarre because that's not who they are (they're more like Nebraska actually!). But after Vandy fell behind early, they re-grouped, came back and took the lead, forcing Nebraska to rally and get it done late. Back and forth but in long stretches, good game, shame to lose Vandy, because they were dangerous. This Nebraska is good, they know who they are and they get buckets.

(12) High Point 88-94 (4) Arkansas

Arkansas was the better team but they really struggled at closing out the game. Pesky High Point just would not go away, but Arkansas made plays and their ball handling guards are really good. This Razorback squad is gonna be a tough out.  

Games I caught on the scoreboard ticker:

(10) Texas A&M 57-88 (2) Houston

(11) Virginia Commonwealth 55-76 (3) Illinois

2026 NCAA Tournament (Day 2)

Games I watched (some of):

Queens University 71-104 Purdue

I am proud to say I am a Queens (College) alumnus and I was proud of my alma mater finally making it to the big dance. And for 15 minutes or so, they acquitted themselves admirably. But Purdue went on a run right before halftime, kept that run going after the break. Purdue is a good team and they did what good teams do: they handled their business and didn't fall for the scrappy underdog routine. As for Queens, hey, man they hung tough for a while, made some plays, looked good out there, but just couldn't hang with the big dogs. Purdue has a great PG (broke the all time NCAA assist record in this game) and they look ready to make a meaningful run.  

Furman 71-82 Connecticut

Turned this one on kinda late, it was close for much of the game but by the time I got to it, Furman had pretty much shot their wad and the Huskies were able to ease the game to victory. Good survival skills for UConn should come in handy.

Wright State 73-82 Virginia

UVA's first win in the tourney in eons and I gotta say: I was not impressed. They play such a slow down style that they are just built to be upset. Wright State succumbed to foul trouble by the end and just couldn't hang down the stretch. 

Santa Clara 84-89 (OT) Kentucky

Game of the day! I was impressed with Santa Clara, this was meant to look like an easy match for the Wildcats but really Santa Clara is the veteran team that showed a lot of grit throughout the season. UK, on the other hand, has some nice players but never found any consistency or real identity all season long. The game was back and forth, thought the Wildcats were generally better but they couldn't get any seperation and it felt like Santa Clara was doing everything they needed to do to steal it late. But Oweh tied it up late, Santa Clara hit a 3 with 2 seconds left, Oweh was able to heave up a prayer just beyond mid court--that went in! (*) OT went back and forth but UK made the defensive plays (two blocks!) in the final minute and got the outlet bucket needed to ice the W. Is this the wakeup call UK needed? Are they ready to go on a run? Well, their next match is against (2) Iowa State, so we'll know right away whether this something the Cats can build on. As for Santa Clara, tough L, they really could've won this match--and may have given Iowa State a real shock.

Missouri 66-80 Miami

The two teams were similar for the most part, the game was close til the midway through the 2nd half when Miami's scoring just became more reliable. Miami is not bad, they were defeinitely better than Missouri, but I'm not sure I'm that afraid of them going forward. 

Utah State 86-76 Villanova

Utah State was the better side all the way through. I kept waiting for Nova to make some kind of run or take some control of the match but they just never did. Not sure if Utah State is pretty good or if Villanova just didn't have it this year. 

Iowa 67-61 Clemson

These two struck me as pretty much the exact same team, except that Iowa was a better shooting team and the better bet to win throughout, which is what happened.

Games I watched on the scoreboard ticker: 

Long Island University 58-92 Arizona

Prairie View A&M 55-114 Florida

Tennessee State 74-108 Iowa State

Hofstra 70-90 Alabama

Felt like Alabama would be an upset candidate and Hofstra hung with them for most of the 1st half, but Alabama went on a run and finished them fairly early, it looks like. 

California Baptist 60-68 Kansas

Cal Bap scored a bunch late, don't think this game was as close as the score suggests.

Akron 71-91 Texas Tech

Northern Iowa 53-79 St. John's

Miami (OH) 56-78 Tennessee

UT jumped on them early and seemed in control throughout. 

Central Florida 71-75 UCLA

This one, too, got close late, I think UCLA actually had this rather easily. 

(*) It was long but it was a makeable shot, Oweh did well to get such a good look at that moment. 

2026 NCAA Tournament (Day 1)

Games I watched (some of):

Siena 65-71 Duke

Siena pushed Duke, this was a close game in the last 2 minutes. Siena made ZERO substitutions in the entire game! And, well, as you can imagine, their offense completely ran out of gas in the last 5 minutes. Duke clawed back and overwhelmed Siena late, but this was no easy match for the Blue Devils, they sweated this out. Hats off to Siena, if they had even one more guy on that bench they might've won this game. Could be the wake up call Duke needs (or it might show that they're just not ready to be as dominant as they ought to be).

Troy 47-76 Nebraska

Nebraska got going about 10 minutes in and that was that. Nebraska can score and Troy just couldn't hang.

High Point 83-82 Wisconsin

Great game! Back and forth all the way through, High Point made plays in the last few minutes and Wisconsin did not. High Point was the better team, this didn't feel like an upset while watching it. 

South Florida 79-83 Louisville

South Florida was hitting shots early, felt like Louisville was fumbling. Then around halftime, Louisville got going, built up a nice lead, sat on it for most of the 2nd half, then South Florida went on a run to make the game look close. If South Florida had gone on their run about 10 minutes earlier, this could've turned out different. Hard to tell if Louisville is actually any good. 

Virginia Commonwealth 82-78 (OT) North Carolina

North Carolina ran out of gas late, tough L but they were an upset candidate ever since they lost their best player (Caleb Williams) to injury a month ago. VCU stayed strong, made the plays they needed to down the stretch and UNC just couldn't score in OT. I wasn't overly impressed with VCU, kinda feels like UNC was ready to lose. 

Texas Christian 66-64 Ohio State

Back and forth all the way, two evenly matched teams. Thought the Buckeyes could've won it late but they didn't. Not overly impressed with either team but TCU was the better team. 

Saint Louis 102-77 Georgia

St. Louis is good, dude! UGA was kinda so-so this year, had a few nice W's but nothing overwhelming. But St. Louis just took it to them early and often and I think they're gonna be a tough out going forward (watch out, Michigan!).

Games I watched on scoreboard ticker:

Howard 80-101 Michigan

Idaho 47-78 Houston

North Dakota State 67-92 Michigan State

Pennsylvania 70-105 Illinois

Kennesaw State 64-73 Gonzaga

Hawaii 78-97 Arkansas

McNeese 68-78 Vanderbilt

Texas 79-71 Brigham Young

Texas A&M 63-50 Saint Mary's

Pretty much all of these games were the same to me: the winning team was ahead for the most part throughout, didn't seem like there was too much drama in the 2nd halves of any of these matches.

2025-26 Champions League (Round of 16)

1st leg

Galatasaray 1-0 Liverpool

For the first few minutes of the game, Galatasaray kept giving the ball away in their own backfield--over and over again!--that it felt for a while like they were never going to get the ball across midfield and were desperately trying to give the game away as quick as possible. But soon enough, they did finally move the ball downfield, got a corner and scored in the 5th minute. Liverpool must've felt shell shocked: they had already blown a half dozen good opportunities before the audience was even paying attention and now they're down 1-0. After that it was a fairly even game, they each had a goal taken away: Liverpool for a handball (correct call) and Galatasaray for an offside (eh, that was 50-50, the dude really wasn't in the play). I expect Liverpool to put up a fuller richer effort back in England, so this one is not over.

Atalanta 1-6 Bayern Munich

Bayern came to play, Atalanta didn't know what hit them. Bayern scored, then scored again almost instantly, then scored again almost instantly, then peppered the keeper a few more times before the half and it was clear pretty quick that this one was over. I honestly snoozed through most the 2nd half, every time I looked up Bayern had scored again. Atalanta is here because Dortmund collapsed badly in the last round, not saying they don't belong here but they clearly weren't ready for Bayern. This one's over. 

Atletico Madrid 5-2 Tottenham

Oh man! Early on, the keeper lost his balance and it was 1-0; a minute later the defender loses his footing and it was 2-0; keeper slips again, 3-0 before the game has even started. Tottenham did well to keep playing, keep pushing, they got back a coupla goals, but this will be one of those matches that Tottenham fans remember for years and years. Does Tottenham have a shot back home in the next leg? I doubt it, man, they shouldn't get crushed this bad again, but this was bad enough. I definitely like Atletico's chances to move on. 

Newcastle United 1-1 Barcelona

Oof! Really thought Newcastle outplayed Barca, they really came to play while Barca felt like they were just chillin'. Thought Newcastle did a good job on the attack, pushed Barca back consistently, kept them out of scoring range pretty effectively. Felt let a hard earned draw, then Newcastle got a stunning goal in the 87th minute and it seemed like Newcastle was gonna score the stunning upset. Then in extra time, a foul in the box (the right call, it was a legit foul) and Barca scratches back the draw with a buzzer beater. Ooooooohhhhhhhhh maaaaaaaannnnnnnn. Still live in the 2nd leg, if Newcastle can pick up where they left off with the attacking intensity, they can catch Barca waffling, this one's definitely still in play. 

Leverkusen 1-1 Arsenal

Arsenal felt to me like the better side, but in the first half they played to a straight nothing-nothing draw. Right out of the half Leverkusen connected on a corner kick and it felt like that was gonna be all the scoring. But Arsenal found the net with a PK (I'm blanking on the play, don't remember if I thought it was the right call or not), just before the close and they're going back to England with an even chance to move on. Leverkusen is a nice team but they didn't feel dangerous on the attack, I think I'd take Arsenal to move on. 

Bodo 3-0 Sporting CP

Bodo! Never heard of Bodo before but when they scorched Inter Milan in back to back games in the round of 24, they definitely caught my attention. They're grit and grind, man, they hustle, they make the plays that the preening rock stars of soccer never follow through on and that edge has served them well so far, I can totally see it working through at least one more round. But, then again: I thought this match was actually pretty even with Bodo being uniquely successful on their chances, but I didn't think they overwhelmed Sporting by any means. Can Sporting can go back home and find 3 goals? I dunno, maybe, I can't rule it just yet because I don't know these teams at all. I'm all into Bodo, rooting for them, certainly looking good (so far), but Sporting still has a chance to move on and I expect them to bring it in the 2nd leg. 

Paris-St Germain 5-2 Chelsea

(Did I watch this one? I'm not remembering this one)

Real Madrid 3-0 Manchester City

1st half hat trick for Valverde and that was pretty much it for Man City. They were nice goals, too, they weren't cheapies, they were sweet. Didn't feel like Man City couldn't hang, just that Real made the most of their chances. Real's in the driver's seat but Man City can have a good day, too, so worth keeping an eye on.  

2nd leg

Sporting 5-0 (AET) Bodo (agg 5-3)

Ahhh, yeah....that's too bad. I was all in on Bodo fever but this result was not particularly surprising. Bodo had no attack at all, they seemed to think that just bunkering was going to be good enough and that did not work. Hey, even in the 1st leg I didn't think Bodo wildly outplayed Sporting, I just thought they converted their opportunities better. But in the 2nd leg, Sporting attacked nonstop--even through 2 OT periods--and Bodo just never got any offense going at all. Sorry, Bodo, I was rooting for you, but your time was up. Sporting is frisky, gonna be a tough out.

Arsenal 2-0 Leverkusen (agg 3-1)

Felt bad for Leverkusen's goalie, he made a ton of great saves--and Arsenal's goals were both untouchable, certainly not his fault. But Arsenal attacked and Levekusen just didn't, Leverkusen just didn't generate much going forward. The 1st leg was even, maybe Arsenal was a tad better, but in the 2nd leg I thought Arsenal dominated Levekusen. Hard to tell, actually, how good Arsenal is, Leverkusen didn't put up enough of a fight to really bring out Arsenal. 

Manchester City 1-2 Real Madrid (agg 1-5)

Real just got it done, Man City tried but they couldn't get anything consistent going forward and they had 2 goals taken away for off-sides (both calls were correct). I thought Man City did their best and it just wasn't good enough. As for Real, didn't even think they played their best. 

Chelsea 0-3 Paris SG (agg 2-8)

Oh, Chelsea. Blasted in the first game, out of sorts in the 2nd leg, too. PSG finished their chances, Chelsea did not. 

Barcelona 7-2 Newcastle (agg 8-3)

Wow, a really tight, tense match....for the 1st half. Barca was getting goals but Newcastle was matching and they never seemed rattled, felt like Newcastle had...I dunno...figured something out, because they didn't seem afraid of Barca. Then Barca got a PK right before half (ehh, I get the call, there was contact, but I would've let it go, I think it was a 50/50 call) and snatched the lead. But before you know it, Barca scored three quick goals and, well, that was that. Felt bad for Newcastle, they were really bringing it for about 45 minutes but they couldn't make it mean anything. Barca is definitely looking good.

Liverpool 4-0 Galatasaray (agg 4-1)

Similar to the Barca match, it was tense and tight and a fascinating match until halftime. Then Liverpool just kept scoring in the 2nd half and Galatasaray just couldn't stop them. I thought Liverpool was the better team throughout, it was only a matter of time before Liverpool found the goal. But once they did, good lord, the avalanche just kept getting bigger and bigger as it came down the mountain. 

Tottenham 3-2 Atletico Madrid (agg 5-7)

Fun match, Tottenham balled out but they couldn't keep Atletico off the scoreboard and that was just it. Atletico is looking good, thought Tottenham was actually a pretty good opponent.

Bayern Munich 4-1 Atalanta (agg 10-2)

Didn't watch any of this, didn't have to, it was plainly obvious from the first leg that Atalanta just wasn't up to this. Bayern is heating up, gonna be a tough out. 

2025-26 NFL (Super Bowl)

AFC

Pats 10-7 Broncos

Crazy game! The Broncos were up 7-0 early, got into FG range and then had to decide whether to go for it or take the 3 points. The weather was still okay at this point but everyone knew a blizzard was coming. So do you just take the easy points and hope that's enough or do you go for the kill shot knowing that the rest of the game is gonna be a sludgefest? I'll tell ya: to me it was a 50/50 call. Sitting on my couch I couldn't decide; taking the easy points made sense but pressing your luck to go for even more made sense, too. I didn't know which way to go but I had the feeling even then that this was going to be the decision of the game. The Broncos went for it, didn't make it, never scored again. To be fair, an even more important play came just before halftime when QB Stidham made a really hideous attempt at throwing the ball away (*) to avoid a sack and it was called a backward pass (**), gave the ball to the Pats inside the 10 yard line for a quick TD and, well, that was the ball game. The Pats had a one nice drive after halftime to take the 10-7 lead, then the blizzard came and it was just comedy at that point. The Broncos probably should've won this game, if Stidham avoids that one big mistake, that's probably enough to finish the game. But, they made the wrong choice on the FG and one bad play destroyed them. As for the Pats, well, they avoided the big mistake, took advantage of what came their way and they're going to the Super Bowl. 

NFC

Rams 27-31 Seahawks

The Rams had their chance to steal it and they came up short, the Seahawks had their chance to blow it and they made the plays down the stretch. The game was mostly back and forth, but I thought the Seahawks were generally the better team with just enough of an opening for the Rams to maybe steal it. This is more what I expected from the Niners the week before, but they were just too depleted; but the Rams, also a familiar division opponent of the Seahawks, still had enough in the tank to push them. When division teams get together, you just never know what's gonna happen because of the familiarity. When a division game is close, it isn't a surprise and when it's a blow out--it isn't a surprise either! Division opponents just produce a different game. So are the Seahawks more tested or less tested because they only played familiar opponents in the playoffs?

Super Bowl

Seahawks @ Pats (+4.5) (o/u 45.5)

The line hasn't budged since it opened and I'm kinda shocked by that. I thought 4.5 was way low and I still think so and I don't understand why I'm (apparently) the only person that thinks that. Listen Pats fans: you've had a great season, you've found your star QB, you've got the right coach and you are moving in the right direction in a division that is stagnating and a conference that is eroding. But, you still didn't play anyone all year long, you got the Texans and the Broncos in flukey conditions, you skipped past Burrow and Mahomes and Lamar, you didn't have to play the Bills a 3rd time and your QB has been way more lucky than good in the post-season. The Pats won all their games, they did what they had to do, I'm not saying they're a fluke or they don't belong here, I'm just saying there's no metric in the universe that suggests to me that they are better than the Seahawks.

The Seahaks stumbled early to the Niners (division foe at full strength), against the Bucs (who started the season red hot) and lost to the Rams (who were red hot in the middle of the season). Otherwise they more or less pummeled everyone else they played. QB Sam Darnold had a solid season, WR Smith-Njigba had a mind-bogglingly awesome season (how is he always open?) and that defense got it done week after week. The Seahawks were slow to get on my radar but once I noticed them, it was hard not to see that they were one of the better teams of the NFC all season long. The NFC was better than the AFC and the Seahawks played a tougher schedule throughout than the Pats. 

The Pats' best hope is that the Seahawks D is over-aggressive and sloppy, that WR Smith-Nigba can be neutralized thus crippling the Seahawk attack, that QB Darnold will turn back into a pumpkin and that QB Maye makes a handful of hero plays and steals a victory. I think that's way too much to expect. I think what is much more likely is that the Seahawk offense grinds a bit, then gets going and the Pats offense just grinds. Shutting down Smith-Njigba is precisely what Belichick would do but that guy is just always open, I think if they over-pursue him, the Pats D might completely crater. Also, I think its much more likely that Darnold makes big plays, not Maye.

Basically my point is: this has 41-10 written all over it. That's what I thought 2 weeks ago, still what I think today. The Seahawks are the better team on both sides of the ball and they are ready to play; the Pats are a nice story but they have overachieved and just aren't as good in any way. It would require a series of crazy misfortunes for the Pats to even have a chance in this match and if the Seahawks don't turn the ball over, I don't see how they lose. 

Gotta go Seahawks big enough that the Pats get some garbage time. I'll say Seahawks 31-17 (Seahawks and the over) and though I'm always up for a competitive match, I think the Pats will be comfortably behind from beginning to end. 

(*) Young QBs out there: either learn to throw the ball away earlier or learn to take the sack. The difference between a veteran play and the worst play of your life is about 1.5 seconds. Stidham made the mistake that all young QB's should learn not to make.

(**) I dunno, man, I thought there was contact on his passing arm, I'm not sure that's really a backward pass, but, oh well, it is what it is. 

2025-26 NCAA Football

Championship

(10) Miami 21-27 (1) Indiana

Really impressed with Miami for coming back and making a for-real game out of this after getting nothing done in the 1st half. Miami's pass rush was able to significantly slow down the Hoosier attack, holding them to a 10-0 scoreline at the half. Indiana looked in every way like the better team, but Miami's D got after QB Mendoza and RB Hemby (yipes! Those two in particular got roughed up in this match) and kept Indiana's dominance to a low boil. 

In the 2nd half Miami was much better at moving the ball and even turned up the defense a bit. Indiana was able to stave off an upset behind a blocked punt that went for a TD. That really kept the Hooisers in the game. Even though Indiana felt like the better team for the most part, Miami kept the game within striking distance, only to be thwarted by a last second interception. 

Much props to Miami. When the time came to crank it up, they cranked. Winning at Texas A&M, then at Ohio State, then beating a red hot Ole Miss at their own game (running the ball to chew up the clock), was masterful stuff. Then getting the championship on their home field must've been tantalizing. They stood up to a superiors opponent and hung tough for 60 minutes against one of the better college football squads I've ever seen, 

As for the Hoosiers, I don't know where they came from, I'd be surprised if they're back next year. This goes alongside Goran Ivanseivc at Wimbledon as the most improbable champion I've ever seen. The QB never missed, the running game had variations, the D-line was stout and the special teams made plays. They were organized and led brilliantly and this team just did what needed to be done all season long. A remarkable championship run that I suspect we'll never see again.

My bowl picks (just winners): 26-20

Correct

Kennesaw Sate 6-41 Western Michigan

(9) Alabama 34-24 (8) Oklahoma

(10) Miami 10-3 (7) Texas A&M

(11) Tulane 10-41 (6) MIssissippi

(12) James Madison 34-51 (5) Oregon

Washington State 34-21 Utah State

Toledo 22-27 Louisville

Western Kentucky 27-16 Southern Mississippi

California 31-35 Hawaii

Central Michigan 7-34 Northwestern

Florida Int'l 20-57 UT-San Antonio

Penn State 22-10 Clemson

(22) Georgia Tech 21-25 (12) Brigham Young

Miami 3-18 Fresno State

North Texas 49-47 San Diego State

Louisiana State 35- (21) Houston

Georgia Southern 29-10 Appalachian State

Coastal Carolina 14-23 Louisiana Tech

(18) Michigan 27-41 (13) Texas

Nebraska 22-44 (15) Utah

(6) Oregon 23-0 (4) Texas Tech

(9) Alabama 3-38 (1) Indiana

Rice 10-41 Texas State

Navy 35-13 Cincinnati

(5) Oregon 22-56 (1) Indiana

(10) Miami 21-27 (1) Indiana

Incorrect

South Carolina State 40-38 Prairie View A&M

Boise State 10-38 Washington

Troy 13-17 Jacksonville State

Old Dominion 24-10 South Florida

Louisiana 13-20 Delaware

Memphis 7-31 North Carolina State

UNLV 10- 17 Ohio

New Mexico 17-20 Minnesota

Pittsburgh 17-23 East Carolina

Connecticut 16-41 Army

(19) Virginia 13-7 Missouri

Tennessee 28-30 Illinois

(16) Southern Cal 27-30 Texas Christian

(23) Iowa 34-27 (14) Vanderbilt

Arizona State 39-42 Duke

(10) Miami 24-14 (2) Ohio State

(6) Mississippi 39-34 (3) Georgia (*)

Wake Forest 43-29 Mississippi State

(17) Arizona 19-24 Southern Methodist

(10) Miami 31-27 (6) Mississippi

Also, gotta shout out the FCS championship, maybe the funnest watch of the whole season.

(*) I took Ole Miss on my blog but apparently not on my card. Doh!

2025-26 NFL (Conference Championship)

AFC

Bills 30-33 (OT) Broncos

QB Josh Allen played the worst game of is life--and the Bills still should've won! 2 fumbles and 2 INTs that led to 3 FGs for the Broncos (and killed at least one pretty clear scoring opportunity for Buffalo) and yet the Bills were still in control late in the 4th and again in OT. Allen's problem is that he is trying to hit grand slams on every play instead of taking the singles and doubles that are available; so for the first 3 quarters he tries to do too much and only settles down when the clock starts to run out. If he played a little more....boring....throughout, I think he'd be a much more successful QB. (*) The Broncos had the right game plan and they pulled it off, but I think Allen's mistakes were more fatal than Bo Nix's and the Bills just couldn't emerge from the quicksand. Good win for the Broncos, they're a fine team that has made the most of their chances. 

Texans 16-28 Patriots

Wow, QB Stroud had the worst game of his life and yet the Texans were still in the game in the 4th quarter because as much ballyhooed as QB Drake Maye is, he wasn't that great on this day either. The difference: the Pats somehow managed to recover Maye's many many fumbles, whereas Stroud's interceptions were gone for good. Seriously, Stroud looked lost, he was uncommitted to his own choices, made such bad throws that he literally injured one of his receivers (no lie, torn ACL trying to reach back for a bad pass), he mostly looked like a guy that didn't want to be there. The Pats were better but somehow they didn't put the game away until pretty late and their offense mostly sputtered against the Texans pass rush. If Stroud could've pulled it together after half time, the game was still there to be taken. I like both of the QBs, I hope they are neither too high nor too low going forward because I still believe in both of them.

NFC

Niners 6-41 Seahawks

This is the third match between these two this season, felt to me coming in that even though the Niners had injuries, they would enough familiarity with their opponent and enough moxy and veteran savvy to put a real scare into their division foes. Nope. The Niners were done before they got off the bus. The Seahawks returned the opening kickoff for a TD and...well...that alone outscored the Niners on this day. The Niners really shouldn't have beaten the Eagles, but they were just begging to get beat. The Seahawks should've been tested with a fitter opponent, but instead they got a free pass to the conference championship. 

Rams 20-17 (OT) Bears

Fun game! (sorta) The wind and snow made for inhospitable conditions but it made the game interesting. Neither team could move the ball consistently and crazy plays were in abundance. None crazier than the longest 14-yard TD pass I've ever seen, which sent the game into OT.

I dunno, people will be down on QB Caleb Williams, I suppose, but he did what he had to do and it just came up short. Weird thought: I thought the Rams were probably the better team and this probably was the right outcomes, but the Bears had their shot to take it in OT and probably should've won. I dunno, they were both good, the Rams were better.

 

AFC

Pats @ Broncos (+3.5, 43.5)

#1 v #2....but does anyone really think these are the two best teams in the AFC? I like their young QBs and their experienced coaches, but I think they both overachieved this season in a conference with a lot of underachievers. They're both nice teams, they both did what they needed to do to get this far and they both deserve a gold star for doing their best. But, again, does anyone think these are the two best teams in the AFC? Well, especially considering that QB Nix is out with a broken ankle (an injury suffered very late in the Bills game and not even noticed until the coach announced at the post-game presser) and the Broncos will be riding long time back up QB Jarrett Stidham (**), who is as beloved a backup QB as there is in the league right now, so I guess the Broncos will have some confidence. The game plan for the Broncos is the same as it was for the Texans last week: crank up the pass rush, get in Drake Maye's face, clog up the running lanes, try to create turnovers (Maye does have 6 fumbles in the last 2 games) and set up easy scoring chances for your so-so offense. If they can turn the Pats over, they can definitely win the game. For the Pats, keep moving the ball, avoid turnovers, keep the Bronco offense in front of you, don't give up big plays. This game is all about turnovers, whoever gives the ball away will lose. I think there's a decent chance that that is the Pats' downfall here. I think the Broncos D comes up big, Stidham does enough and the Broncos steal it. Broncos 21-20 (Broncos and the under)

NFC

Rams @ Seahawks (-2.5, 45.5)

The Seahawks get another familiar division opponent this week. Last week it was the last gasp of the Niners, will this week be peak Rams or another last gasp? The Rams had moments of this season of arguably the best offense in the league....but that was a while ago. We haven't seen that high flying attack since before Xmas. The Seahawks all season long have been the best defense in the league, a robotic hitting machine that gets into the backfield and minimizes plays at the second level. The weird part of this game is Seahawks QB Darnold: he's been good all year long but he hasn't really had to be great and in the past whenever he needed to be great, he wasn't. Also, the Seahawks have an exceptionally 1-dimensional offense (namely WR Smith-Njigba) with not much variation. Will the Seahawks need Darnold to rise up? Maybe not. But if they do, will he show? Not sure. If the Rams play their best game, it'll challenge Darnold to make plays; but if the Seahawks D crushes a flailing Rams attack, then the Seahawks should win easily. This game really is a conundrum: I can see either team winning or losing in a blowout and likewise I can see either snatching victory late or having it snatched from them. I think the Seahawks defense is really good (special teams, too), but the offense is very rickety; I think the Rams offense at its best is a monster but at its worst will get swallowed up by the Seahawks rather easily. The least likely scenario would be a high scoring shootout, where the Rams toss aside the vaunted Seahawks D and Darnold plays the game of his life...but that would make for the most fun game and since I have no idea how to handicap this, I'll take the fun scenario. Seahawks 38-35 (Seahawks and the over)

(*) Life long Bills fan, I utterly adore Josh Allen, think he's the greatest in the game right now, but if he would just button up a smidge and take the easy plays, he would have fewer highlights and more wins. Don't listen to me, Josh, don't ever change, you're awesome and I appreciate all that you do...but I suspect you'd get more if you did less.

(**) Dude, I swear I thought Stidham was black, I see a white guy and I'm like, wait, I thought I knew what this guy looked like. Nope. That's the life of a backup QB, even one as seemingly prized as Stidham.

2025-26 NCAA Football (Championship)

Semifinals

(10) Miami 31-27 (6) Mississippi

Great game! Back and forth action, even the final hail mary is being scrutinized though Ole Miss had virtually no chance to convert. Didn't think QB Beck had it in him to calmly march down the field in the 4th quarter, but he did it--great win! Ole Miss had one of the finest offenses all year long and I really believed they would pull out this game. But Miami's D is getting the job done and their offense is finally showing up, too. Miami is playing their best football of the season right now. 

(5) Oregon 22-56 (1) Indiana

Well, this one was over quick. The Hoosiers went for a pick-6 on the first play of the game and, well, that was about it. Each team had a nice TD drive on their next possession, then Indiana just went off and left Oregon behind. Somehow Oregon outgained Indiana in total yards--that's what 3 turnovers in your own half will do to you, kids. Indiana is just pummeling the world right now. 

Championship

(10) Miami @ (1) Indiana (-8.5, 47.5)

Okay, I had my eye on Miami early in the season, I thought the mix of an experienced QB (even if he had been a jackass all summer) to go with a rebuilt D-line could really be something special. Then I watched them lose to Louisville and I was out; felt like Miami was just too dumb to get back to winning football and I kinda forgot about them til it came to be tournament time. Good win at Texas A&M, another good win at Ohio State, now a complete victory over Ole Miss (a team I kept my eye all year long), and I'm impressed. QB Beck is looking like a for-real NFL prospect again and that defense is standing up to serious challenges. Again: Miami is playing their best ball on both sides and they look like an old timey Hurricane squad. Oh--and they get to play the championship in their home stadium! Doesn't 8.5 points look like too much?

Indiana has never been good at football--EVER--until last season when they were a nice surprised. They marched through their schedule this season with impressive wins at Oregon and Penn State and then thoroughly outplayed Ohio State in the Big 10 final. They have since pummeled Alabama (not everyone's fave, but I actually liked the Tide this year) and Oregon (game was over quick) and are clearly the deserving fave going into the Final. 8.5 looks like too much, doesn't it? They're catching Miami peaking and on their home field to boot! How can this game not be close?

I dunno, man, I've laid out the case for Miami.....but I still can't go against the Hoosiers. They've been murdering people all year long, why would that stop? Miami isn't the first good team they've played, Miami isn't the first good defense they've come up against, Miami isn't the first time they've had to go on the road to win. Miami's resurgence and home field advantage, frankly, just adds that much WTF to the Hoosier victory march. I think Indy's D is gonna stifle the burgeoning Hurricane attack and I think Indy's O-line is going to counter the Canes at the lines. I think Indiana is gonna run wild and comfortably pass for 1st downs while being hardly challenged at all on D.

Its all set up for Miami but I gotta go Indiana 30-13 (Hoosiers and the under)

2025-26 NFL (Division Round)

Rams 34-31 Panthers

The Rams should have destroyed the Panthers, they didn't. Credit the Panthers for getting it up for the playoffs, but the Rams should've handled this quicker. I want to fall in love with the veteran savvy of the Rams, I'm a huge Stafford fan, but they just don't inspire confidence. 

Packers 27-31 Bears

This game was over. The Packers had a commanding lead and the Bears were struggling. Then....I dunno....the Bears pile up points and stole the game. This is one of those classic WTF-just-happened games. Don't mess with the Bears, man, they are so hard to put away.  

Bills 27-24 Jaguars

If the Jags had stuck to their commitment to the run (particluarly outside the tackles), I think they would've won this game rather easily. But they didn't do that, they kept trying to pass, and the Bills vanilla zone was able to absorb the attack. Meanwhile, Josh Allen suffered through 10 different injuries, kept chugging along and stole the victory. The game was on Jacksonville's racket and they failed to serve it out, a bit disappointing really. But Allen is a monster. 

Niners 23-19 Eagles

The Eagles sat around yelling at each other instead of just winning the game, which was a readily winnable game. The highs and lows of this Eagle team over the last 5 years or so will be studied for years to come: unbeatable when they feel like it, boring as hell when they don't show up. As for the Niners, QB Purdy is a steady force, he just never quits, you think he won't get it done but there he is getting it done. They lost TE Kittle but considering they never really got RB McCaffrey going, this was a pretty impressive performance. 

Chargers 3-16 Patriots

The Chargers just never could get any offense going at all. QB Herbert has the Josh Allen problem: I think he's trying to hit home runs every time instead of taking the singles and doubles that are available, which means they put themselves in the position of having to get big plays instead of just putting together a proper balanced offense. (I blame the Chargers coaching staff for this) The Pats didn't exactly blow anyone away, but they steadily accumulated and held the Chargers in check and did what needed to be done. 

Texans 30-6 Steelers

The score was 7-6 well into the 4th quarter, don't been fooled by the scoreline. The Texans had a nice drive, then a scoop-and-score and finished the game with a pick-6 as QB Rodgers completely fell apart at the end. The Steelers have not been good for a decade at least, but they somehow just keeping living in the playoffs and I just don't get it. Now that Coach Tomlin has moved on and they definitely have no QB (are they really gonna go for 1 more year of Rdogers?), now is the time to finally re-tool the franchise. As for the Texans, well, if they could find an offensive identity to go with the smothering defense, they just might have something. Can they find that in Foxboro in January? 

AFC

Bills @ Broncos (-1.5, 45.5)

The Bills are susceptible to 2 things: a vicious pass rush on offense and a strong running game on defense. If the Broncos stick hard to a strong running game (which the Jags last week failed to adhere to) and if they can attack from the edge into the Bills backfield, this could be a rather easy win for the Broncos. But the Bills have QB Josh Allen and a good running game of their own. If the Bills can maintain possession and get after the Broncos's young QB, they can keep it close. Yeah, I'm a Bills fan and I want to believe the no Mahomes/Burrow/Lamar mojo and though I'm skeptical, I gotta go with the Bills. I know: I just laid out the case for a Broncos victory--a decisive and rather easy victory, no less--but Allen is a monster and the wild card in this game. If the Bills can stay within striking distance in the 4th quarter, I believe that Allen will do the striking. I'll take Bills 24-20 (Bills and the under)

Texans @ Patriots (-3, 40.5)

The Texans have a killer pass rush and aren't as inexperienced as has been portrayed, this their third straight trip to the playoffs and they came close to knocking off the Chiefs last year in KC. Can they hang with the Pats? Well, I don't think Pats' D is really any better than what the Texans faced last week in Pittsburgh, but then again QB Stroud didn't exactly light up the flailing Steelers (that scoreline is very deceiving, it was way closer than 30-6 would suggest). The Pats have a smart coach and a great young QB, but they haven't been here in a while and they haven't played a team as good as the Texans (outside of Buffalo) all season long. I hate to keep harping on the Pats' piss poor schedule, but competition matters and they haven't had any in a while. I think the Pats are good and ready to win but the Texans are gonna make them work and if Stroud can make some plays, the Texans can steal this. I think they will. I got Texans 21-20 (Texans and the over)

NFC

Niners @ Seahawks (-7, 44.5)

The Niners have been a puzzling team all year long: crippling injuries and a general mediocrity but they just kept winning games. TE Kittle is out and they just got smoked by the Seahawks a few weeks ago, how can the Niners win? Well, the Seahawks and their suffocating defense are led on the other side by QB Sam Darnold (who was injured in practice this week) and a monster season from WR Smith-Njigba. Do we believe in Darnold? Do we believe in Seattle's staggeringly 1-dimensional offense? Well, that defense is pretty fuckin' great and the path to a Championship is right in front of them. I like the Seahawks to dispose of the Niners but I don't think the Niners will make it easy for them. The spread is too large, I gotta take the Niners to keep it close and make the Seahawks scramble. Seahawks 27-24 (Niners and the over)

Rams @ Bears (+4.5, 48.5)

The Rams had a stretch of killer offense this season, but that hasn't been quite as impressive lately. And the Rams defense just doesn't inspire confidence. The Bears are young, they are new to this, and their calling card is struggling for three quarters then coming on big late. Can they do that again? I think they can. The Rams are a warm weather dome team going East to play in the snow, QB Stafford is a wily veteran but the conditions are not going to be in his favor and the Bears are hungry. I kinda love the Bears here, definitely to cover and I like them to win. Bears (late) 31-27 (Bears and the over)