I've watched a lot of the Euro so far but I haven't been as obsessive as I might normally be over a big summer soccer tournament because of USA's run in the Copa America. Euro is still better soccer (shut up, you know its true) and there are still 8 solid contests left and I look forward to all of them. I wouldn't put money of any of these predictions, just wanted to get a sense of what I think I think.
Poland v Portugal
Poland has narrow wins over Northern Ireland and Ukraine, draws against Germany and Switzerland. They're not scoring a ton but the defense has been stout. Portugal drew their way out of the group, tying up Iceland, Austria and Hungary before finally getting a goal against Croatia. Portugal is doing just enough to advance but I think that ends here. I'll take Poland to move on.
Wales v Belgium
Wales lost to Slovakia but got big wins against England and Russia before squeaking past Northern Ireland in the round of 16. Belgium lost to Italy before hanging wins on Ireland and Sweden and then dropping a bomb on Hungary. I'm still not as impressed with Belgium as I'm supposed to be but hard to pick against them here, I say Wales' historic run ends in the quarters.
Germany v Italy
Germany had wins over Ukraine and Northern Ireland and a draw against Poland before thumping Slovakia. Italy had convincing wins over Beligum, Sweden, Ireland and Spain. Germany is still Germany but they're younger than usual, shaky in the back and don't look as unbeatable as usual and while Italy was not high on anyone's list coming into this tournament, I'd say they're playing as well as anyone right now. I'll take Italy over Germany (I think I think the winner of this game wins it all).
France v Iceland
Iceland got through their group by drawing Portugal and Hungary and a win over Austria before shocking England. France cruised by Romania and Albania then had a draw with Switzerland and a nailbiter against Ireland. Iceland is obviously the big underdog but, man, they dig in and defend well. France is good but I feel like seeing an upset. I'll take Iceland to get to the semifinals.
Wednesday, June 29, 2016
Tuesday, June 28, 2016
Copa America Final
Argentina 0-0 Chile (Chile wins 4-2 on PKs)
The first half was all over the place; the second half was sedate. Overtime went back to being kinda crazy but wound down to not much. The story of the 1st half was the ref: started tossing around cards like a blackjack dealer and made it all about himself. I thought he was doing pretty good until the first red card: a second yellow is a harsh punishment for that play, there really wasn't anywhere for the defender to go, it was a foul but I didn't think a card was necessary. I didn't think Messi's yellow card for flopping in the box was necessary, the ball went out of bounds for a goal kick, no foul, just move on. Yeah, Messi fell over and he embellished but I think he genuinely and, yeah, he was trying to get a call, so what? Thought that card really just made for some bad blood. And the next red card may have looked ugly from his vantage point and it was a foul, but on the replay the contact was not that bad. Most of the ugliness of the forward going down was his foot getting caught underneath himself, which made for an awkward fall. I understand that maybe the ref thought it looked worse than it was but I'm not sure a straight red was necessary. By halftime both teams were down to 10 men and the locker rooms must've been pretty gloomy because both teams came out determined to not foul in the second half. Seems like this should've worked in Argentina's favor (more room for Messi to get loose) but I thought it worked for Chile (less aggressive defense meant they held possession more confidently than before).
Both teams played hard, my man. And in the end it probably ended the way it should have. A lot was made of Messi (and probably Mascherano, Aguero, Higuain and Biglia) retiring from international play after a 'devastating loss'. But I suspect they were all retiring anyway, win or lose. If they do all retire (and they might change their minds), it means none of them ever won anyting in Argentine uniforms, which is kind of amazing to imagine. So much brilliance and never did take home a trophy? Wow. (Kind of humbling to us USA fans that keep wondering if winning a World Cup in our lifetimes is even possible. Dude if Messi didn't win one...I mean...shit)
USA 0-1 Colombia
Would've been nice for USA to get a win but this was definitely a better game than that brutal loss to Argentina or the disappointing showing against Colombia in group play. I'd have preferred a win but this was a hard fought contest and I'm pleased with USA's effort. Colombia's goal was a nice piece of teamwork, caught USA off guard, a professional piece of finishing, nothing for USA fans to get too pissed about. The worisome part for me was USA's inability to get a good shot, it reminded me of some of those 1990's USA teams: decently confident possessing the ball but once we get into the box there was still no hope of scoring. Oh well.
Howard, Beslor, Cameron, Orozco, Yedlin were the defensive starters. Thought Howard looked really good, though his time with USA is probably coming to a close, he's one of the best we ever had and if he wants to stick around (behind Guzan), I'd be more than happy to keep him, still moves like a cat, great instincts, as long as he still wants to play, I suspect he'll be around. Beslor stepped in for Brooks and handled himself just fine. (Personally I still favor a 3-6-1 lineup, with Beslor alongside Brooks and Cameron in the back; just my personal opinion) Cameron, along with Brooks and Guzan, really gave me hope for USA's future, thought they made a great team in front of the goal. Orozco seemed to be getting beat as all of Colombia's 1st half pressure came up his side, but I just think that's the way he plays: he sags so that other can go forward and if gets lopsided, no matter, its gotta go somewhere. He had a really lame red card (though the ref is to blame for the time wasted) but I generally thought he was solid. Yedlin did not have a great tournament and I'm still waiting to see some development in his game. He's got a ton of speed but if he gets beat in the back and has no skill in the front, then who cares how fast he is? I'm not ready to give up on him but I am ready to start thinking about giving up on him.
Jones, Bradley, Bedoya, Zardes started in the midfield. I get that Jones and Bradley have veteran smarts and when then opportunity arises they move with more confidence than anyone else on the squad, but it just looks to me like their presence will bring a steady decline in the opportunities. Jones is still pretty good with the ball but off the ball he always looks 3-4 steps away from where he ought to be. And Bradley needs to be the force that turns defense into offense and yet too often he gets dispossessed, makes a bad pass and just slumps the ball backward. Personally, I'm ready for both of those guys to go. I thought Bedoya had a really good tournament and I hope he's firmly in the starting lineup going forward. Zardes works hard and that is appreciated but his touch is heavy and his decision making is not very mature. He's capable of making plays in 2018 but if he doesn't, it may look like time wasted.
Dempsey, Wood started up front. The more I see of Wood the more I like him. He's a bit bratty with the refs, which is not endearing, but he works hard and occasionally his efforts really pay off. I'm in on Wood (hope that Altidor can be a worthwhile mate for him up front). I wonder about Dempsey: I still like his veteran presence but his pace and his hubris limit his potential. I can live with him being there through 2018 but I'd like to see some other candidates throughout the qualifying period.
Pulisic, Nagbe came off the bench. I thought Nagbe should've started and I still think that. Granted, I'm less of a fan of Jones and Bradley than everyone else apparently, but I'm ready for Nagbe to be the guy. I think he's got good skill and pace but he needs the reps to be useful as a playmaker and it feels like Jones is in the way of his development. I don't mind using Pulisic as a spark plug off the bench but I can't help thinking that 90 minutes is the way to go for him. I'd like to see him paired in the center mid with Nagbe, let them work off each other to make plays for everyone else. I don't want to lose Dempsey though, so perhaps push Pulisic out wide and let him attack with speed (either supplanting Zardes on one side or Yedlin on the other).
Brooks and Johnson didn't play due to injury; Guzan was given the night off. I thought Brooks was one of the best players USA had this tourney and I look forward to him being a rock on the backline through the next World Cup. Johnson was fine, not sure what his role was but I liked his effort and his skill. I think he'll be in the starting lineup in 2018. I like Guzan, thought he played in this tournament and I think this is his team now. I thought playing Howard in the final game was a lovely sendoff to one of the best players USA has ever produced (though if he wants to stick around as a backup, that'd be fine with me).
I think my ideal USA team for qualifying would be a 3-5-2 with this lineup: Goalie (Guzan); Defenders (Brooks, Cameron, Beslor); Midfield (Johnson, Pulisic, Dempsey, Nagbe, Bedoya); Forward (Altidor, Wood). With Howard, Orozco, Beckerman, Yedlin, Bradley, Jones, Zardes, Miazga off the bench. Still need some skill and speed up front, not sure who steps up for USA. We'll see.
The first half was all over the place; the second half was sedate. Overtime went back to being kinda crazy but wound down to not much. The story of the 1st half was the ref: started tossing around cards like a blackjack dealer and made it all about himself. I thought he was doing pretty good until the first red card: a second yellow is a harsh punishment for that play, there really wasn't anywhere for the defender to go, it was a foul but I didn't think a card was necessary. I didn't think Messi's yellow card for flopping in the box was necessary, the ball went out of bounds for a goal kick, no foul, just move on. Yeah, Messi fell over and he embellished but I think he genuinely and, yeah, he was trying to get a call, so what? Thought that card really just made for some bad blood. And the next red card may have looked ugly from his vantage point and it was a foul, but on the replay the contact was not that bad. Most of the ugliness of the forward going down was his foot getting caught underneath himself, which made for an awkward fall. I understand that maybe the ref thought it looked worse than it was but I'm not sure a straight red was necessary. By halftime both teams were down to 10 men and the locker rooms must've been pretty gloomy because both teams came out determined to not foul in the second half. Seems like this should've worked in Argentina's favor (more room for Messi to get loose) but I thought it worked for Chile (less aggressive defense meant they held possession more confidently than before).
Both teams played hard, my man. And in the end it probably ended the way it should have. A lot was made of Messi (and probably Mascherano, Aguero, Higuain and Biglia) retiring from international play after a 'devastating loss'. But I suspect they were all retiring anyway, win or lose. If they do all retire (and they might change their minds), it means none of them ever won anyting in Argentine uniforms, which is kind of amazing to imagine. So much brilliance and never did take home a trophy? Wow. (Kind of humbling to us USA fans that keep wondering if winning a World Cup in our lifetimes is even possible. Dude if Messi didn't win one...I mean...shit)
USA 0-1 Colombia
Would've been nice for USA to get a win but this was definitely a better game than that brutal loss to Argentina or the disappointing showing against Colombia in group play. I'd have preferred a win but this was a hard fought contest and I'm pleased with USA's effort. Colombia's goal was a nice piece of teamwork, caught USA off guard, a professional piece of finishing, nothing for USA fans to get too pissed about. The worisome part for me was USA's inability to get a good shot, it reminded me of some of those 1990's USA teams: decently confident possessing the ball but once we get into the box there was still no hope of scoring. Oh well.
Howard, Beslor, Cameron, Orozco, Yedlin were the defensive starters. Thought Howard looked really good, though his time with USA is probably coming to a close, he's one of the best we ever had and if he wants to stick around (behind Guzan), I'd be more than happy to keep him, still moves like a cat, great instincts, as long as he still wants to play, I suspect he'll be around. Beslor stepped in for Brooks and handled himself just fine. (Personally I still favor a 3-6-1 lineup, with Beslor alongside Brooks and Cameron in the back; just my personal opinion) Cameron, along with Brooks and Guzan, really gave me hope for USA's future, thought they made a great team in front of the goal. Orozco seemed to be getting beat as all of Colombia's 1st half pressure came up his side, but I just think that's the way he plays: he sags so that other can go forward and if gets lopsided, no matter, its gotta go somewhere. He had a really lame red card (though the ref is to blame for the time wasted) but I generally thought he was solid. Yedlin did not have a great tournament and I'm still waiting to see some development in his game. He's got a ton of speed but if he gets beat in the back and has no skill in the front, then who cares how fast he is? I'm not ready to give up on him but I am ready to start thinking about giving up on him.
Jones, Bradley, Bedoya, Zardes started in the midfield. I get that Jones and Bradley have veteran smarts and when then opportunity arises they move with more confidence than anyone else on the squad, but it just looks to me like their presence will bring a steady decline in the opportunities. Jones is still pretty good with the ball but off the ball he always looks 3-4 steps away from where he ought to be. And Bradley needs to be the force that turns defense into offense and yet too often he gets dispossessed, makes a bad pass and just slumps the ball backward. Personally, I'm ready for both of those guys to go. I thought Bedoya had a really good tournament and I hope he's firmly in the starting lineup going forward. Zardes works hard and that is appreciated but his touch is heavy and his decision making is not very mature. He's capable of making plays in 2018 but if he doesn't, it may look like time wasted.
Dempsey, Wood started up front. The more I see of Wood the more I like him. He's a bit bratty with the refs, which is not endearing, but he works hard and occasionally his efforts really pay off. I'm in on Wood (hope that Altidor can be a worthwhile mate for him up front). I wonder about Dempsey: I still like his veteran presence but his pace and his hubris limit his potential. I can live with him being there through 2018 but I'd like to see some other candidates throughout the qualifying period.
Pulisic, Nagbe came off the bench. I thought Nagbe should've started and I still think that. Granted, I'm less of a fan of Jones and Bradley than everyone else apparently, but I'm ready for Nagbe to be the guy. I think he's got good skill and pace but he needs the reps to be useful as a playmaker and it feels like Jones is in the way of his development. I don't mind using Pulisic as a spark plug off the bench but I can't help thinking that 90 minutes is the way to go for him. I'd like to see him paired in the center mid with Nagbe, let them work off each other to make plays for everyone else. I don't want to lose Dempsey though, so perhaps push Pulisic out wide and let him attack with speed (either supplanting Zardes on one side or Yedlin on the other).
Brooks and Johnson didn't play due to injury; Guzan was given the night off. I thought Brooks was one of the best players USA had this tourney and I look forward to him being a rock on the backline through the next World Cup. Johnson was fine, not sure what his role was but I liked his effort and his skill. I think he'll be in the starting lineup in 2018. I like Guzan, thought he played in this tournament and I think this is his team now. I thought playing Howard in the final game was a lovely sendoff to one of the best players USA has ever produced (though if he wants to stick around as a backup, that'd be fine with me).
I think my ideal USA team for qualifying would be a 3-5-2 with this lineup: Goalie (Guzan); Defenders (Brooks, Cameron, Beslor); Midfield (Johnson, Pulisic, Dempsey, Nagbe, Bedoya); Forward (Altidor, Wood). With Howard, Orozco, Beckerman, Yedlin, Bradley, Jones, Zardes, Miazga off the bench. Still need some skill and speed up front, not sure who steps up for USA. We'll see.
Saturday, June 25, 2016
Copa America Semifinals
I wrote that USA losing 2-1 to Argentina was an optimistic prediction and, man, was I proven right about that. I would love to look back at that game and see a 2-1 loss for USA.
Imagine you're playing a match against Roger Federer, you've got solid groundstrokes, a world class backhand, fantastic footwork but you can't serve worth a shit and your return isn't very good. (Do you see where I'm going with this?) If a rally breaks out, you'll have a chance--you might even win a majority of points...but a rally isn't going to break out and you're gonna get smoked. Likewise, USA put 11 soccer players on the field, they wore uniforms and cleats, they ran around like world class athletes...but they didn't control the ball for more than 15 seconds at a time. Thus, USA was never in this game--never even close to getting within shouting distanace of being in this game. Some complained that the USA players gave up but I didn't see it that way. Look, man, when everything you've tried has failed for 60 solid minutes, what are you gonna do in the last 30? Dude, nothing worked, nothing at all. It isn't that they didn't try, they didn't succeed and by the end there was no success even imaginable.
I watched the post-game press conference, where the reporters asked a lot about USA's nervousness and deference to a superior Argentine squad. (Let me just say this: reporters live in a bubble where they invent their own news, where the convenient storyline is what they considered the 'news' rather than what actually transpired. *smh* The reporters totally missed the point of the game and, frankly, wasted Coach Klinnsman's time, made him answer dumb questions and never bothered to ask worthwhile ones. Like, what was the gameplan tonight, Coach? Were we bunkering or pushing forward? Looked like we were trying to do both and didn't do either. My suggestion going into the game was a 3-6-1 where the defenders are locked in front of the goal and the midfield is swamped with counterattack opportunities, which is kinda what USA ended up with by the end. While a semi-final appearance in the Copa America is a good result, USA's crushing defeat when the pressure was on is still quite disconcerting.
Okay, time to move on. Colombia beat USA 2-0 in the very first game of this tourney but I'm expecting a much better result tonight. I'd love to see a win, wouldn't be at all surprised if USA hung a shocker on Colombia. But that requires USA picking up its game. Suggestions: I'm ready for Nagbe to start, I'm ready for Bradley and Wondolowski to exit the rotation, and I can live with Pulisic off the bench but I wouldn't mind seeing him for 90 minutes (in Jermaine Jones' spot). I look forward to seeing Dempsey up front, wouldn't mind seeing Tim Howard in this game becuase I think this might (should) be the last time we see either of those guys in USA uniforms. Bradley was always a bit overhyped but still better than anyone else at that spot but now I'm not sure what he does anymore that can't be done by some youngster with more fire (I'd rather go down fighting rather than going down by passing backward). Push the ball forward aggressively against the Colombians because there's a decent chance that Colombia has already checked out and won't be bringing their A+ lineup. The easy call is to say this game goes to penalty kicks, where anything can happen, but I want to see USA win and I think they can.
Argentina reminded me of that dominant run Spain had recently: dominated possession, no bad passes, solid on-ball defense, pounced on every mistake and had plenty o' shots. Chile, too, is steady balling right now, this is going to be a balls-out final. Can't wait. I'll go with Argentina to take it in PK's (Higuain will be the star).
Imagine you're playing a match against Roger Federer, you've got solid groundstrokes, a world class backhand, fantastic footwork but you can't serve worth a shit and your return isn't very good. (Do you see where I'm going with this?) If a rally breaks out, you'll have a chance--you might even win a majority of points...but a rally isn't going to break out and you're gonna get smoked. Likewise, USA put 11 soccer players on the field, they wore uniforms and cleats, they ran around like world class athletes...but they didn't control the ball for more than 15 seconds at a time. Thus, USA was never in this game--never even close to getting within shouting distanace of being in this game. Some complained that the USA players gave up but I didn't see it that way. Look, man, when everything you've tried has failed for 60 solid minutes, what are you gonna do in the last 30? Dude, nothing worked, nothing at all. It isn't that they didn't try, they didn't succeed and by the end there was no success even imaginable.
I watched the post-game press conference, where the reporters asked a lot about USA's nervousness and deference to a superior Argentine squad. (Let me just say this: reporters live in a bubble where they invent their own news, where the convenient storyline is what they considered the 'news' rather than what actually transpired. *smh* The reporters totally missed the point of the game and, frankly, wasted Coach Klinnsman's time, made him answer dumb questions and never bothered to ask worthwhile ones. Like, what was the gameplan tonight, Coach? Were we bunkering or pushing forward? Looked like we were trying to do both and didn't do either. My suggestion going into the game was a 3-6-1 where the defenders are locked in front of the goal and the midfield is swamped with counterattack opportunities, which is kinda what USA ended up with by the end. While a semi-final appearance in the Copa America is a good result, USA's crushing defeat when the pressure was on is still quite disconcerting.
Okay, time to move on. Colombia beat USA 2-0 in the very first game of this tourney but I'm expecting a much better result tonight. I'd love to see a win, wouldn't be at all surprised if USA hung a shocker on Colombia. But that requires USA picking up its game. Suggestions: I'm ready for Nagbe to start, I'm ready for Bradley and Wondolowski to exit the rotation, and I can live with Pulisic off the bench but I wouldn't mind seeing him for 90 minutes (in Jermaine Jones' spot). I look forward to seeing Dempsey up front, wouldn't mind seeing Tim Howard in this game becuase I think this might (should) be the last time we see either of those guys in USA uniforms. Bradley was always a bit overhyped but still better than anyone else at that spot but now I'm not sure what he does anymore that can't be done by some youngster with more fire (I'd rather go down fighting rather than going down by passing backward). Push the ball forward aggressively against the Colombians because there's a decent chance that Colombia has already checked out and won't be bringing their A+ lineup. The easy call is to say this game goes to penalty kicks, where anything can happen, but I want to see USA win and I think they can.
Argentina reminded me of that dominant run Spain had recently: dominated possession, no bad passes, solid on-ball defense, pounced on every mistake and had plenty o' shots. Chile, too, is steady balling right now, this is going to be a balls-out final. Can't wait. I'll go with Argentina to take it in PK's (Higuain will be the star).
Friday, June 24, 2016
New NBA Free Agents
Anthony Barber (NC State), Kyle Wiltjer (Gonzaga), Troy Williams (Indiana), Jarrod Uthoff (Iowa), Zach Auguste (Notre Dame), Julian Jacobs (USC), Wayne Selden (Kansas), Perry Ellis (Kansas), Alex Poythress (Kentucky), Gary Payton II (Oregon), Robert Carter (Maryland), Dorian Finney-Smith (Florida), Prince Ibeh (Baylor), Fred Van Vleet (Wichita State), Andrey Desayatnikov (Russia), Ron Baker (Wichita State), are now free to find new homes in the NBA. We'll be seeing a lot of these guys at Summer League in a coupla weeks.
Draft Thoughts (#46-60)
#46. AJ Hammons (Mavs) -- Great pickup for the Mavs, I think he'll play for them right away....or be out of the league in six months.
#47. Jake Layman (Magic) -- The interest in Layman kinda came and went all year long. Not sure if this is a good pickup or fool's gold.
#48. Paul Zipser (Bulls) -- The Bulls makeover continues. Zipser is another that only recently appeared in the mocks. I'm guessing he's a bit of Nikola Mirotic type...?
#49. Michael Gbinje (Pistons) -- Interesting prospect off the bench for the Pistons.
#50. Georges Niang (Pacers) -- Could be roster filler for the Pacers but I suspect he's gone by opening night.
#51. Ben Bentil (Celtics) -- Man, the Celtics D League squads are gonna be stacked next year. Bentil had a lot of interest, he definitely could've gone earlier. I figured by now the Celtics would be looking for foreigners to stash but maybe packing the D League is a better way to go.
#52. Joel Bolomboy (Jazz) -- Another one that had consistent interest in the mocks all year long. A little surprised he fell this far. Not sure how he fits the Jazz, could be a D Leaguer.
#53. Petr Cornelie (Nuggets) -- I suspect he'll go back to Europe for a year or two.
#54. Kay Felder (Hawks) -- Felder will either be gone before you know it or he'll be one of the most exciting rookies in this class. If he can score, he could really be a star for the Hawks.
#55. Marcus Paige (Nets) -- I liked him in college, not sure he translates to the next level. He kinda reminds me of Tyus Jones, who became a solid 3rd string PG by the end of the season. Nets needs anything and everything, so I guess he'll get a shot but I'm not really high on his chances of sticking through next summer.
#56. Daniel Hamilton (Nuggets) -- Like the Celtics, looks like the Nuggets are usng this draft to fill out their D League rosters. Had interest most of the year but didn't really shine last season. My guess is he's a D Leaguer.
#57. Wang Zhelin (Grizzlies) -- No idea who this is or when he gets to the NBA.
#58. Abdel Nader (Celtics) -- Seems like a D League roster filler.
#59. Isiah Cousins (Kings) -- He fell a long way and the Kings need everything, wouldn't be surprised to see him playing for the Kings next year.
#60. Tyrone Wallace (Jazz) -- Interesting West Coast talent, fell a long way.
#47. Jake Layman (Magic) -- The interest in Layman kinda came and went all year long. Not sure if this is a good pickup or fool's gold.
#48. Paul Zipser (Bulls) -- The Bulls makeover continues. Zipser is another that only recently appeared in the mocks. I'm guessing he's a bit of Nikola Mirotic type...?
#49. Michael Gbinje (Pistons) -- Interesting prospect off the bench for the Pistons.
#50. Georges Niang (Pacers) -- Could be roster filler for the Pacers but I suspect he's gone by opening night.
#51. Ben Bentil (Celtics) -- Man, the Celtics D League squads are gonna be stacked next year. Bentil had a lot of interest, he definitely could've gone earlier. I figured by now the Celtics would be looking for foreigners to stash but maybe packing the D League is a better way to go.
#52. Joel Bolomboy (Jazz) -- Another one that had consistent interest in the mocks all year long. A little surprised he fell this far. Not sure how he fits the Jazz, could be a D Leaguer.
#53. Petr Cornelie (Nuggets) -- I suspect he'll go back to Europe for a year or two.
#54. Kay Felder (Hawks) -- Felder will either be gone before you know it or he'll be one of the most exciting rookies in this class. If he can score, he could really be a star for the Hawks.
#55. Marcus Paige (Nets) -- I liked him in college, not sure he translates to the next level. He kinda reminds me of Tyus Jones, who became a solid 3rd string PG by the end of the season. Nets needs anything and everything, so I guess he'll get a shot but I'm not really high on his chances of sticking through next summer.
#56. Daniel Hamilton (Nuggets) -- Like the Celtics, looks like the Nuggets are usng this draft to fill out their D League rosters. Had interest most of the year but didn't really shine last season. My guess is he's a D Leaguer.
#57. Wang Zhelin (Grizzlies) -- No idea who this is or when he gets to the NBA.
#58. Abdel Nader (Celtics) -- Seems like a D League roster filler.
#59. Isiah Cousins (Kings) -- He fell a long way and the Kings need everything, wouldn't be surprised to see him playing for the Kings next year.
#60. Tyrone Wallace (Jazz) -- Interesting West Coast talent, fell a long way.
Draft Thoughts (#31-45)
(Deyonta Davis and Cheick Diallo have dropped quite a bit by now. The intriguing Zhou Qi still out there (though the intriguing Thon Maker is long, long gone))
#31. Deyonta Davis (Celtics traded to Grizzlies) -- Fell a long way, think the Grizzlies got a reasonably priced guy that should fit their rotation.
#32. Ivica Zubac (Lakers) -- Don't know much about him. I think he's expecting to play next year, the Lakers look to have room on the roster for him.
#33. Cheick Diallo (Pelicans) -- Pelicans traded up to get him, if he can score, he can play for them.
#34. Tyler Ulis (Suns) -- Finally! The Suns needed another Kentucky guard. Whew! They must've been sweating the last few picks. I think Ulis can play, he reminded me of Shaun Livingston (offensively only, not defensively): he wants to pass first, get to the elbow for a 15 footer next. For teams that want to play high energy basketball, Ulis is a great fit (to the Nuggets with Jamal Murray might've been even better but he'll hook on with the Suns).
#35. Rade Zagorac (Grizzlies) -- Don't know him, not sure if he comes next year. If he can score from the perimeter then the Grizzlies will play him.
#36. Malcolm Brogdon (Bucks) -- Great pick. Brogdon in college was one of those guys that just does whatever needs to be done, I think his work ethic and smarts give him a great shot at making an NBA rotation. I think he'll play for the Bucks.
#37. Chinanu Onuaku (Rockets) -- Another Louisville product for the Rockets. Seems like the Rockets have piled up a lot of size tonight. Got a feeling Onuaku doesn't make the opening day roster.
#38. Patrick McCaw (Warriors) -- If he can score, he can hang. He'll probably be a practice player for a while but he'll be getting the best practice in the world.
#39. David Michineau (Clippers) -- No idea who this is.
#40. Diamond Stone (Clippers) -- Little surprised he fell this far, I thought he was really impressive in the U17 World Cup last summer. Rookies often get lost at the end of Coach Rivers' bench but I think he can play.
#41. Stephen Zimmerman (Magic) -- Fell too far, I think this guy can really play. Again, not sure where the Magic are going with any of these moves--don't dislike the choices just not sure I get them. I think this guy's gonna be a solid athlete at the next level.
#42. Isiah Whitehead (Jazz) -- Great pick, this kid can ball. The Jazz are one of those teams with a deep rotation, he'll get some run.
#43. Zhou Qi (Rockets) -- Curious to see him in action, he sounds great. Rockets might've picked up the real score of this entire draft.
#44. Isaia Cordinier (Hawks) -- Not sure if he plays right away or spends another year in Europe.
#45. Demetrius Jackson (Celtics) -- Celtics got another quality guard. Not sure if he gets playing time, unless a lot of trades take place (absolutely possible).
#31. Deyonta Davis (Celtics traded to Grizzlies) -- Fell a long way, think the Grizzlies got a reasonably priced guy that should fit their rotation.
#32. Ivica Zubac (Lakers) -- Don't know much about him. I think he's expecting to play next year, the Lakers look to have room on the roster for him.
#33. Cheick Diallo (Pelicans) -- Pelicans traded up to get him, if he can score, he can play for them.
#34. Tyler Ulis (Suns) -- Finally! The Suns needed another Kentucky guard. Whew! They must've been sweating the last few picks. I think Ulis can play, he reminded me of Shaun Livingston (offensively only, not defensively): he wants to pass first, get to the elbow for a 15 footer next. For teams that want to play high energy basketball, Ulis is a great fit (to the Nuggets with Jamal Murray might've been even better but he'll hook on with the Suns).
#35. Rade Zagorac (Grizzlies) -- Don't know him, not sure if he comes next year. If he can score from the perimeter then the Grizzlies will play him.
#36. Malcolm Brogdon (Bucks) -- Great pick. Brogdon in college was one of those guys that just does whatever needs to be done, I think his work ethic and smarts give him a great shot at making an NBA rotation. I think he'll play for the Bucks.
#37. Chinanu Onuaku (Rockets) -- Another Louisville product for the Rockets. Seems like the Rockets have piled up a lot of size tonight. Got a feeling Onuaku doesn't make the opening day roster.
#38. Patrick McCaw (Warriors) -- If he can score, he can hang. He'll probably be a practice player for a while but he'll be getting the best practice in the world.
#39. David Michineau (Clippers) -- No idea who this is.
#40. Diamond Stone (Clippers) -- Little surprised he fell this far, I thought he was really impressive in the U17 World Cup last summer. Rookies often get lost at the end of Coach Rivers' bench but I think he can play.
#41. Stephen Zimmerman (Magic) -- Fell too far, I think this guy can really play. Again, not sure where the Magic are going with any of these moves--don't dislike the choices just not sure I get them. I think this guy's gonna be a solid athlete at the next level.
#42. Isiah Whitehead (Jazz) -- Great pick, this kid can ball. The Jazz are one of those teams with a deep rotation, he'll get some run.
#43. Zhou Qi (Rockets) -- Curious to see him in action, he sounds great. Rockets might've picked up the real score of this entire draft.
#44. Isaia Cordinier (Hawks) -- Not sure if he plays right away or spends another year in Europe.
#45. Demetrius Jackson (Celtics) -- Celtics got another quality guard. Not sure if he gets playing time, unless a lot of trades take place (absolutely possible).
Thursday, June 23, 2016
Draft Thoughts (#15-30)
#15. Juan Hernangomez (Nuggets) -- Any guy the Spurs like is a guy worth getting to know. This draft is turning into a foreign affair (and that's counting Simmons and Sabonis as Americans). Those players hard to predict, how to get to know, and the draft itself is unknowable, could be a classic draft, could be the worst class in eons. If Hernangomez scores the way I think he can, he'll play right away and fit right in to the Nuggets motif. Or perhaps he's a stash and we'll see him in 2017-18.
#16. Gerschon Yabusele (Celtics) -- I had Yabusele going #43, either there a lot of reaches tonight or the mock drafts I look at are way out of the know. Don't know much about Yabusele, my guess is he's a stash job, we'll probably see him when it comes time to decide what to do with Marcus Smart or Avery Bradley.
#17 Wade Baldwin (Grizzlies) -- Great pick. I think Baldwin is one of the more underappreciated (American) players in this draft. He'll score and play hard, exactly what the Grizzlies need. Grizzlies might be a grease fire next year or they might have that old timey Grizzlies grit to 'em, we'll see. Either way I think Baldwin is a great pick here.
#18 Henry Ellenson (Pistons) -- He'll fit well with their offense. With Drummond down low and Jackson dominating the ball, he fill the swing spot opposite Tobias Harris nicely. Could even play some minutes at the C in small ball lineup. Not an ROY candidate but I think he'll put a solid part of their rotation by year's end.
#19 Malik Beasley (Nuggets) -- The Nuggets are really adding a lot of young scoring tonight, huh? I wonder if Beasley slips ahead of Hernangomez on the depth chart (or if this pushes Hernangomez for one more year of Europe). Murray and Beasley are in a fight to supplant Gary Harris or it could be that three of them form a great platoon. (Hmmm, trade rumors were swirling about Kenneth Faried wonder if Beasley or Harris or Hernangomez gets moved soon? Telling ya, man, tonight is a night of subterfuge, everybody's dealing tonight)
#20 Caris LaVert (Nets) -- Brooklyn needs anything and everything but LaVert seems like a bit of a reach. Oh well, if he can play, he will play, so not a bad pick. He'll get a chance to play so if the Nets excede expectations in the least, LaVert could get some ROY consideration.
#21 Deandre Bembry (Hawks) -- Hmm, Hawks are going for a squad of Bazemore replacements. I dunno, could work. Hard working small forward, he'll be learning alongside Taurean Prince, if they lose Horford, they might both get time as the Hawks revamp.
(Forkan Korkmaz, Deyonta Davis, Timothe Luwawu and Dejounte Murray still on the board)
#22 Malachi Richardson (Kings) -- Kinda feel like the Kings should've kept the foreign vibe going with this pick. Richardson had a nice run in the NCAA Tourney this year but I still felt like he was too young to really discern his game yet. The Kings need finished products, not experiments, but his size and ball handling skill makes him worth it I guess.
#23 Ante Zizic (Celtics) -- Not sure if the Celtics bring him over sooner or later, but they need help down low.
#24 Timothe Luwawu (Sixers) -- Raw talent but kinda Antetokounpo-ish and the Sixers need everything, I think this is a good pick. He and Simmons might be great together. (If they take Zimmerman at #26, could mean Nerlens and Okafor are both on the move)
#25 Brice Johnson (Clippers) -- Great pick. Johnson has the ability to be the perfect contributor for a good team and Chris Paul is just the guy to keep the discipline on him. I think this is a great fit, think Johnson is going to be a solid player off the Clipper bench all year long.
#26 Furkan Korkmaz (Sixers) -- With Dario Saric on his way to Philly, Korkmaz might get another year in Turkey but I kinda thought he was ready play right away. Maybe he is, Philly has been featuring mostly rookies for the last coupla years, this year the rookies will actually be highly touted. I love a youth movement and I can tell I'll be watching a lot of the Sixers next year.
#27 Pascal Siakam (Raptors) -- Raptors are really stocking up on big guys tonight, not planning on getting Biyombo back, I guess. Don't know much about Siakam, not sure how he fits in for the Raptors.
#28 Skal Labissiere (Kings) -- Honestly, after watching him for a season at UK, I don't think he's worth the #28 pick but I do think this is a more realistic spot for him than the lottery where most mocks projected him. I think Skal will be a better scorer than defender, so perhaps he gets attention when he does get some playing time. I suspect we won't see much of him next year, he's a long term project.
#29 Dejounte Murray (Spurs) -- Murray was routinely projected as a lottery pick, so was he overrated (like Skal) or is he gift from God to the Spurs? It's the Spurs, man, you know its gift from god time! I don't know much about Murray but he's bigger PG than the Spurs have been used to. If he can swing the ball around and knock down an occasional 3, he'll fit in perfectly. And with Pop's rotations, he'll probably get regular playing time (perhaps a lot if Tony Parker gets nicked up). No idea what kind of player he is but he's a Spur now, so he's probably really good.
#30 Damian Jones (Warriors) -- A center from Vandy...guess the post-Ezeli era will be a smooth transition. When it comes to starting pitchers, Vandy has been great lately but if you're looking low post scoring, not sure Vandy is the basketball Wal-Mart. If indeed they do let Ezeli go (I think they ought to), then Jones will get some time. If he can score down low, he might be a neat little toy for Draymond and Curry and if he's a hard nosed defender he could be a real asset for them. We'll see.
#16. Gerschon Yabusele (Celtics) -- I had Yabusele going #43, either there a lot of reaches tonight or the mock drafts I look at are way out of the know. Don't know much about Yabusele, my guess is he's a stash job, we'll probably see him when it comes time to decide what to do with Marcus Smart or Avery Bradley.
#17 Wade Baldwin (Grizzlies) -- Great pick. I think Baldwin is one of the more underappreciated (American) players in this draft. He'll score and play hard, exactly what the Grizzlies need. Grizzlies might be a grease fire next year or they might have that old timey Grizzlies grit to 'em, we'll see. Either way I think Baldwin is a great pick here.
#18 Henry Ellenson (Pistons) -- He'll fit well with their offense. With Drummond down low and Jackson dominating the ball, he fill the swing spot opposite Tobias Harris nicely. Could even play some minutes at the C in small ball lineup. Not an ROY candidate but I think he'll put a solid part of their rotation by year's end.
#19 Malik Beasley (Nuggets) -- The Nuggets are really adding a lot of young scoring tonight, huh? I wonder if Beasley slips ahead of Hernangomez on the depth chart (or if this pushes Hernangomez for one more year of Europe). Murray and Beasley are in a fight to supplant Gary Harris or it could be that three of them form a great platoon. (Hmmm, trade rumors were swirling about Kenneth Faried wonder if Beasley or Harris or Hernangomez gets moved soon? Telling ya, man, tonight is a night of subterfuge, everybody's dealing tonight)
#20 Caris LaVert (Nets) -- Brooklyn needs anything and everything but LaVert seems like a bit of a reach. Oh well, if he can play, he will play, so not a bad pick. He'll get a chance to play so if the Nets excede expectations in the least, LaVert could get some ROY consideration.
#21 Deandre Bembry (Hawks) -- Hmm, Hawks are going for a squad of Bazemore replacements. I dunno, could work. Hard working small forward, he'll be learning alongside Taurean Prince, if they lose Horford, they might both get time as the Hawks revamp.
(Forkan Korkmaz, Deyonta Davis, Timothe Luwawu and Dejounte Murray still on the board)
#22 Malachi Richardson (Kings) -- Kinda feel like the Kings should've kept the foreign vibe going with this pick. Richardson had a nice run in the NCAA Tourney this year but I still felt like he was too young to really discern his game yet. The Kings need finished products, not experiments, but his size and ball handling skill makes him worth it I guess.
#23 Ante Zizic (Celtics) -- Not sure if the Celtics bring him over sooner or later, but they need help down low.
#24 Timothe Luwawu (Sixers) -- Raw talent but kinda Antetokounpo-ish and the Sixers need everything, I think this is a good pick. He and Simmons might be great together. (If they take Zimmerman at #26, could mean Nerlens and Okafor are both on the move)
#25 Brice Johnson (Clippers) -- Great pick. Johnson has the ability to be the perfect contributor for a good team and Chris Paul is just the guy to keep the discipline on him. I think this is a great fit, think Johnson is going to be a solid player off the Clipper bench all year long.
#26 Furkan Korkmaz (Sixers) -- With Dario Saric on his way to Philly, Korkmaz might get another year in Turkey but I kinda thought he was ready play right away. Maybe he is, Philly has been featuring mostly rookies for the last coupla years, this year the rookies will actually be highly touted. I love a youth movement and I can tell I'll be watching a lot of the Sixers next year.
#27 Pascal Siakam (Raptors) -- Raptors are really stocking up on big guys tonight, not planning on getting Biyombo back, I guess. Don't know much about Siakam, not sure how he fits in for the Raptors.
#28 Skal Labissiere (Kings) -- Honestly, after watching him for a season at UK, I don't think he's worth the #28 pick but I do think this is a more realistic spot for him than the lottery where most mocks projected him. I think Skal will be a better scorer than defender, so perhaps he gets attention when he does get some playing time. I suspect we won't see much of him next year, he's a long term project.
#29 Dejounte Murray (Spurs) -- Murray was routinely projected as a lottery pick, so was he overrated (like Skal) or is he gift from God to the Spurs? It's the Spurs, man, you know its gift from god time! I don't know much about Murray but he's bigger PG than the Spurs have been used to. If he can swing the ball around and knock down an occasional 3, he'll fit in perfectly. And with Pop's rotations, he'll probably get regular playing time (perhaps a lot if Tony Parker gets nicked up). No idea what kind of player he is but he's a Spur now, so he's probably really good.
#30 Damian Jones (Warriors) -- A center from Vandy...guess the post-Ezeli era will be a smooth transition. When it comes to starting pitchers, Vandy has been great lately but if you're looking low post scoring, not sure Vandy is the basketball Wal-Mart. If indeed they do let Ezeli go (I think they ought to), then Jones will get some time. If he can score down low, he might be a neat little toy for Draymond and Curry and if he's a hard nosed defender he could be a real asset for them. We'll see.
Draft Day Trades
Pacers get Thaddeus Young, Nets get #20 pick. Pacers just nabbed Jeff Teague and Thaddeus Young instead of drafting (seems like #50 could be had), both solid moves I think. I kinda feel like the Nets could've done better for Young but if they're strictly looking for draft picks then maybe they couldn't.
Hornets get Marco Belinelli, Kings get #22. Hmmm, I thought the rumor was the Hornets were willing to give away #22 if someone took Jeremey Lamb, so why isn't Lamb in this deal and why are they taking back Belinelli? Kinda suspect they'll cut Belinelli or move him later on. The Kings desperately need draft picks (although they didn't stop them from taking Marquese Chris) and they never desperately needed Belinelli, so no-brainer for them. With all the reaches so far in this draft, can't wait to see who the Kings will piss away #22 on.
Suns gets Marquese Chriss, Kings get #13 (Papagiannis), #28, a 2020 2nd rd pick, and the rights to Bogdan Bogdanovic. Okay, it was the Kings that are going for that international flavor (probably a good move since everyone in USA hates them). And it was the Suns that wanted to overpay Chriss. Kings now have 3 picks in this draft (so, Luwawu and Zubac with those next two picks?) and a European player who apparently lost interest in the NBA and has returned to Turkey (we'll see if he's susceptible to Sacramento sweet talk).
Magic get Serge Ibaka, Thunder get Victor Oladipo, Ersan Ilyasova and Domantis Sabonis (#11 pick). Wow, quite a haul for the Thunder. I think Sabonis is a good fit, Ilyasova will do some gritty dirty work, and Oladipo becomes a 6th Man candidate right away, no? Seems like the Magic kinda overpaid for only one year of Ibaka but he can be extended this summer so maybe they've got a deal in place. Not sure where Ibaka fits for them but he's a helluva player and Coach Vogel will get good stuff out of him.
Celtics get 2019 Clippers 1st rd pick, Grizzlies get picks #31, #35. Considering how far Davis fell, the Grizzlies were probably pretty eager to jump in him and they get another pick coming up as a bonus (Cheick Diallo?). The Celtics get another future 1st round pick to throw on the pile and call it a night on tonight's draft--oh wait, no, they still have 3 more picks. I'm guessing they take either all foreigners or make trades for future picks.
Pelicans get #33 (Cheick Diallo), Clippers get #39 (Michineau) #40 (Diamond Stone). Stone strikes me as the best player in this swap. No idea who Michineau is, not sure when he arrives Stateside. Diallo probably fits the Pelicans better than Stone.
Warriors get #38 (Patrick McCaw), Bucks get cash. McCaw is nice big body athlete that the Warriors will teach to play the Warrior way. Good for that kid. I thought McCaw could get time with the Bucks but I guess they preferred the money.
Nets get #42 (Isiah Whitehead), Jazz get cash and #55 (Marcus Paige). Nice pickup for the Nets, I think Whitehead can play and with the depleted Nets he will definitely get some run. Don't feel like Paige is gonna make it with the Jazz.
Cavs get #54 (Kay Felder), Hawks get cash. Is Felder the new Dellavedova?
Blazers get #47 (Jake Layman), Magic get 2017 2nd rd pick, cash. Didn't really see how Layman fit in for the Magic, now I get it: he doesn't. But for a future pick and a coupla bucks Layman mves on to the Blazers, where he'll get his chance in that rotation.
Thunder get #56 (Daniel Hamilton), Nuggets get cash. I'm not sure Hamilton is an NBA player, is this another example of the Thunder drafting specifically for their D League squad?
Hornets get Marco Belinelli, Kings get #22. Hmmm, I thought the rumor was the Hornets were willing to give away #22 if someone took Jeremey Lamb, so why isn't Lamb in this deal and why are they taking back Belinelli? Kinda suspect they'll cut Belinelli or move him later on. The Kings desperately need draft picks (although they didn't stop them from taking Marquese Chris) and they never desperately needed Belinelli, so no-brainer for them. With all the reaches so far in this draft, can't wait to see who the Kings will piss away #22 on.
Suns gets Marquese Chriss, Kings get #13 (Papagiannis), #28, a 2020 2nd rd pick, and the rights to Bogdan Bogdanovic. Okay, it was the Kings that are going for that international flavor (probably a good move since everyone in USA hates them). And it was the Suns that wanted to overpay Chriss. Kings now have 3 picks in this draft (so, Luwawu and Zubac with those next two picks?) and a European player who apparently lost interest in the NBA and has returned to Turkey (we'll see if he's susceptible to Sacramento sweet talk).
Magic get Serge Ibaka, Thunder get Victor Oladipo, Ersan Ilyasova and Domantis Sabonis (#11 pick). Wow, quite a haul for the Thunder. I think Sabonis is a good fit, Ilyasova will do some gritty dirty work, and Oladipo becomes a 6th Man candidate right away, no? Seems like the Magic kinda overpaid for only one year of Ibaka but he can be extended this summer so maybe they've got a deal in place. Not sure where Ibaka fits for them but he's a helluva player and Coach Vogel will get good stuff out of him.
Celtics get 2019 Clippers 1st rd pick, Grizzlies get picks #31, #35. Considering how far Davis fell, the Grizzlies were probably pretty eager to jump in him and they get another pick coming up as a bonus (Cheick Diallo?). The Celtics get another future 1st round pick to throw on the pile and call it a night on tonight's draft--oh wait, no, they still have 3 more picks. I'm guessing they take either all foreigners or make trades for future picks.
Pelicans get #33 (Cheick Diallo), Clippers get #39 (Michineau) #40 (Diamond Stone). Stone strikes me as the best player in this swap. No idea who Michineau is, not sure when he arrives Stateside. Diallo probably fits the Pelicans better than Stone.
Warriors get #38 (Patrick McCaw), Bucks get cash. McCaw is nice big body athlete that the Warriors will teach to play the Warrior way. Good for that kid. I thought McCaw could get time with the Bucks but I guess they preferred the money.
Nets get #42 (Isiah Whitehead), Jazz get cash and #55 (Marcus Paige). Nice pickup for the Nets, I think Whitehead can play and with the depleted Nets he will definitely get some run. Don't feel like Paige is gonna make it with the Jazz.
Cavs get #54 (Kay Felder), Hawks get cash. Is Felder the new Dellavedova?
Blazers get #47 (Jake Layman), Magic get 2017 2nd rd pick, cash. Didn't really see how Layman fit in for the Magic, now I get it: he doesn't. But for a future pick and a coupla bucks Layman mves on to the Blazers, where he'll get his chance in that rotation.
Thunder get #56 (Daniel Hamilton), Nuggets get cash. I'm not sure Hamilton is an NBA player, is this another example of the Thunder drafting specifically for their D League squad?
Draft Thoughts (#1-14)
#1. Ben Simmons (Sixers) -- Clear call, easy call, great pick. The Sixers will probably still stuck next year, not hard to imagine that Simmons struggles. But the team is on the right track and Simmons will eventually be a really good player.
#2. Brandon Ingram (Lakers) -- Kobe's replacement. He'll got a lot of run, a lot of opportunities right away, Coach Walton will treat him right. We'll see what moves the Lakers make before opening night, but right now I don't see the Lakers as a playoff team, though they should be sniffing around #8. Ingram will have a good chance at ROY.
#3 Jaylen Brown (Celtics) -- Interesting pick, wouldn't be surprised to see him on another team by the end of the night. Brown is a raw talent but when you've got Coach Stevens, raw is just fine, it means fewer bad habits. Brown is either a replacement for a possible trade (Bradley on the move?) or he is the possible trade (does Brown them Jahlil Okafor?). I think Brown's gonna be good, I think he can be good for the Celtics but for Boston this seems like a reach which makes me think someone else wants him.
#4 Dragan Bender (Suns) -- Good pick. Bender has been an impressive prospect, interesting game, I think he can play with Knight or Bledsoe or Booker (would you be shocked if all three got traded and replaced with three totally different PG's to fight over the ball?). Or he too could be interesting to other teams, the Suns are loaded down with trade bait and Bender might be one of them.
#5 Kris Dunn (Wolves) -- I would've thought Hield or Murray for the Wolves, some young scoring to go with Wiggins' sick defense. The talk of Rubio on the move has been heating up, so Dunn seems like the logical replacement. I know Thibs wants to win now but this team is already young, you sure you're going deep in the playoffs with a rookie PG? Maybe, Dunn looks like he's gonna be really good but even Dunn could use a wing scorer to go with.
#6 Buddy Hield (Pelicans) -- Pelicans need all the perimeter scoring they can get. Hield is a senior, a little older than the others in this draft, I think he'll play right away. He's a one dimensional player but his one dimension is really big in the NBA right now and if he can score, he'll be a big score right away. Hield with Alvin Gentry has ROY potential.
#7 Jamal Murray (Nuggets) -- Murray fits in with the free flowing Nugget offense, he'll score just fine right away. Nuggets are a young team (wouldn't be surprised to see them trade Faried for more draft picks), so the expectations are not high but they have a great home court advantage, so if they come together they can hang around the #8 spot. I think the Nuggets are maybe the best place for Murray: he shoots the ball and the Nuggets love scorers. I think the Nuggets will be too young and sloppy for Murray to get serious ROY consideration but he should score from the gitty and be a solid #2 in this league for a while.
#8 Marquis Chriss (Kings) -- Yeah, the most wildly overrated reach of a pick to a team that desperately needs reliable young talent. Oh well. Hopefully Coach Joerger will get this young man on the right path. I think the Kings will be horrible and I don't have high hopes for Chriss in the near or long term.
#9 Jakob Poetl (Raptors) -- Curious pick. They already have Lucas Noquiera and Bruno Caboclo waiting in the wings, is this an acknowledgement they're ready to move on from the Brazilian duo? Or he is future trade bait? (On a night like tonight, that is a possibility for every single remaining pick before and after the pick is redeemed) I'm not a huge fan of Poetl, I think he can be a solid Zeller-ish presence, which isn't a bad thing but it isn't a great thing and I think there are better players available at #9.
#10 Thon Maker (Bucks) -- BOOM! Bucks dropped a boms on #10. The enigmatic Thon Maker has been all over the place (I've seen as high as #14, as low at late 50s; I had him going #31 to the Celtics) and in the last few hours rumors of lying about his age were heating up of the internet. Seems like damaged goods and he's only 19 (roughly). But the Bucks must've seen something like they liked because they dropped him into the #10 salary slot. Okay, we'll see. I have no idea who he really is or what he's like, no idea what kinda of future he'll have. Is he here to replace Greg Monroe?
#11 Damontis Sabonis (Magic) -- Good pick, I think Sabonis is gonna be a good player (think Josh McRoberts with a scoring touch). I guess a he's a good fit for the Magic.
#12 (If the Hawks traded up to get Skal Labisserie, I'm gonna barf on my shoes) Taurean Prince (Hawks) -- Well, that's better than getting Labisserie but not much. I think they could've gotten Prince with the #21 pick (I had him going #30 to the Warriors), not sure he was worth dumping Jeff Teague for. Oh well. Don't know much about him, I guess he replaces Kent Bazemore?
#13 Georgios Papagiannis (Suns) -- Papagiannis just appeared in the mock draft world in the last coupla weeks, I kinda thought the Bucks would have an eye for him but they took Thon Maker instead (hmmmm, any chance those two picks get swapped?). Don't know anything about Papagiannis except that he is an insane reach at #13, so either he's a trade piece or they're going for an all international flavor in Phoenix?
#14 Denzel Valentine (Bulls) -- Personally I was really impressed with Valentine's game at Michigan State. He's big, a sure ball handler and can do a little bit of everything on the court. If you can't figure out how to work with that then you need to get out of the basketball business. Whispers of health concerns looked to drop Valentine out of the lottery (I had him going #18) but I think he can be a really good PG and, well, the Bulls are suddenly looking for one of those. I don't think he's an ROY candidate (although who know what the Bulls will look like next year?) because I don't think he'll dominate the ball, though a playmaking distributor is probably his best role.
My Mock Draft
Trades will make a big difference in tonight's draft...sorta. Remember: today is basically the last day of the 2015-16 season, so the new salary cap (and all the craziness that'll bring) doesn't begin until next month. Don't be surprised if there are lot of deals tonight that don't get announced for another coupla weeks. So while I expect a lot of trades tonight, I also expect a lot more deals that don't get announced right away which could lead to a lot of weird looking picks. With that said, here's my mock. I'm confident of the first two picks, after that I'm curious to see if I get any correct.
1. Simmons 31. Maker
2. Ingram 32. Payton II
3. Dunn 33. LaVert
4. Murray 34. Jones
5. Hield 35. Zhou Qi
6. Bender 36. Papagiannis
7. Sabonis 37. Ulis
8. Chriss 38. McCaw
9. Brown 39. Stone
10. Ellenson 40. Gbinje
11. Baldwin 41. Onuaku
12. Poetl 42. Whitehead
13. Labissiere 43. Yabusele
14. Davis 44. Brogdon
15. Korkmaz 45. Bentil
16. Luwawu 46. Hammons
17. Johnson 47. Cousins
18. Valentine 48. Cordinier
19. Beasley 49. Felder
20. Diallo 50. Zipser
21. Hernangomez 51. Ellis
22. Zimmerman 52. Siakam
23. Murray 53. Zagorac
24. Richardon 54. Cornelie
25. Bembry 55. Bolomboy
26. Jackson 56. Barber
27. Zizic 57. Uthoff
28. Stone 58. Carter
29. Zubac 59. Selden
30. Prince 60. Finney-Smith
1. Simmons 31. Maker
2. Ingram 32. Payton II
3. Dunn 33. LaVert
4. Murray 34. Jones
5. Hield 35. Zhou Qi
6. Bender 36. Papagiannis
7. Sabonis 37. Ulis
8. Chriss 38. McCaw
9. Brown 39. Stone
10. Ellenson 40. Gbinje
11. Baldwin 41. Onuaku
12. Poetl 42. Whitehead
13. Labissiere 43. Yabusele
14. Davis 44. Brogdon
15. Korkmaz 45. Bentil
16. Luwawu 46. Hammons
17. Johnson 47. Cousins
18. Valentine 48. Cordinier
19. Beasley 49. Felder
20. Diallo 50. Zipser
21. Hernangomez 51. Ellis
22. Zimmerman 52. Siakam
23. Murray 53. Zagorac
24. Richardon 54. Cornelie
25. Bembry 55. Bolomboy
26. Jackson 56. Barber
27. Zizic 57. Uthoff
28. Stone 58. Carter
29. Zubac 59. Selden
30. Prince 60. Finney-Smith
Pointless Trade Idea
Bucks get Ricky Rubio, Nikola Pekovic, #5 pick; Wolves get John Henson, #36 pick
The Wolves are apparently eager to part ways with Rubio as long as someone takes Pekovic with him (which is the player they're really eager to move on from). Obviously they'd rather deal them both without giving up #5 but by including that pick, they'll get something back and save a ton of money. Henson is a criminally underappreciated player on a favorable contract (4yrs/$45m) who gives them a nice veteran presence off the bench (assuming they start Garnett again this season). Also he becomes insurance for Adrien Payne (great depth if he develops, a fungible commodity if he doesn't). At #36 they've got a shot at a PG (perhaps Demtrius Jackson, Micheal Gbinje or Tyler Ulis (whom Towns recently said is the best PG he's ever played with)) or any bit of depth really because by giving up Rubio and Pekovic, they'll have a ton of money to lure Mike Conley to be their new PG.
The Bucks get themselves a 2nd top ten pick (I'd recommend Dragan Bender if he's still there), a veteran PG (MCW becomes more attractive as a 2nd string PG) and a big man who gives them a better chance to move on from Greg Monroe. Rubio is a non-scoring ballhandling option to Antetokounpo, Pekovic comes off the bench for Monroe (off whoever they get to replace Monroe) and #5 gives them...welll, whatever they get. Their starting five becomes PG Rubio, SG Middleton, SF Antetokounpo, PF Parker, C Monroe with MCW, Ennis, #5 (Bender?), #10 (Deyonta Davis?), Vaughn, Pekovic off the bench. They'll be taking back a lot of salary but Rubio is worth it and Pekovic's deal gets less onerous each year.
For the Bucks its a good mix of youth and vets (admittedly with health concerns) that gives them room to make more moves throughout the summer. For the Wolves they move on from their worst contract and a PG they're probably ready to move on from; they'll be giving up their top pick but taking back a lot less salary giving them a ton of money to lure free agents.
The Wolves are apparently eager to part ways with Rubio as long as someone takes Pekovic with him (which is the player they're really eager to move on from). Obviously they'd rather deal them both without giving up #5 but by including that pick, they'll get something back and save a ton of money. Henson is a criminally underappreciated player on a favorable contract (4yrs/$45m) who gives them a nice veteran presence off the bench (assuming they start Garnett again this season). Also he becomes insurance for Adrien Payne (great depth if he develops, a fungible commodity if he doesn't). At #36 they've got a shot at a PG (perhaps Demtrius Jackson, Micheal Gbinje or Tyler Ulis (whom Towns recently said is the best PG he's ever played with)) or any bit of depth really because by giving up Rubio and Pekovic, they'll have a ton of money to lure Mike Conley to be their new PG.
The Bucks get themselves a 2nd top ten pick (I'd recommend Dragan Bender if he's still there), a veteran PG (MCW becomes more attractive as a 2nd string PG) and a big man who gives them a better chance to move on from Greg Monroe. Rubio is a non-scoring ballhandling option to Antetokounpo, Pekovic comes off the bench for Monroe (off whoever they get to replace Monroe) and #5 gives them...welll, whatever they get. Their starting five becomes PG Rubio, SG Middleton, SF Antetokounpo, PF Parker, C Monroe with MCW, Ennis, #5 (Bender?), #10 (Deyonta Davis?), Vaughn, Pekovic off the bench. They'll be taking back a lot of salary but Rubio is worth it and Pekovic's deal gets less onerous each year.
For the Bucks its a good mix of youth and vets (admittedly with health concerns) that gives them room to make more moves throughout the summer. For the Wolves they move on from their worst contract and a PG they're probably ready to move on from; they'll be giving up their top pick but taking back a lot less salary giving them a ton of money to lure free agents.
Pointless Trade Idea
Celtics get Enes Kanter; Thunder get Amir Johnson, James Young, the #16 pick.
Yes, Kanter is absolutely atrocious on defense but he's a top notch scorer around the basket and really good rebounder. If anyone can get something out of Kanter on the defensive end, it's Coach Stevens. If it works they've got 3 more years of a solid low post scorer and they're rolling into next year with a for real vet instead of another rookie. (This'll sound weird but hear me out: Kanter's comparable game is Shaq. Within three feet of the basket Kanter is a great (yeah, I said it, GREAT) but farther than that, he becomes more and more useless. He needs to be playing at the Center spot, keep him close to the basket, give up on him guarding the perimeter. Yeah, he still kinda sucks on defense even there, but he's a good rebounder and he's got a good shot at outscoring his opponent, so he should be a plus performer at the position)
The Thunder get a decent veteran center for a year, a young shooting prospect and a shot at a decent draft pick (Denzel Valentine could be waiting there or Brice Johnson). Johnson is a so-so center but they'll be looking for reliable defense without any need of offense from him. Young can shoot 3's, I'm kinda convinced he can't do anything else but a corner shooting threat is all OKC needs and he's still on his rookie contract. Though this draft is thought to be kinda soft, I'm convinced there will still be plenty of worthwhile players at #16. The real upside here is this: next summer OKC will be desperately scraping together every penny to re-sign Westbrook, Ibaka, Adams and (presumably) Durant. By jettisoning Kanter's long range money, OKC will have the maximum flexibility to hold together this core....or start over from scratch.
I like Kanter, I think he fits well with Durant and Westbrook but OKC needs money for next summer more than anything right now. And if the core does fall apart, Kanter is not the guy they're gonna wanna rebuild around anyway. Johnson is a serviceable player underneath. If Young's talents are maximized, he can still become the deadly scorer OKC needs and for now he's still cheap enough to experiment with. Brice Johnson, for example, can be a productive player in the right environment and a team with clear leaders and championship asirations could unlock the best of his game.
If the Celtics take on Kanter the danger is that Stevens is unable to make him useful (I don't think that's a real danger, honestly, Stevens is an umitigated genius of basketball) and he wallows at the end of the bench and the Celtics are stuck with him. Young is deep down the depth chart and likely won't get a chance to play in Boston. Johnson is a serviceable player underneath but the Celtics are really looking for scoring down there and with only a year left on his deal, Johnson is not their center of the future. The #16 pick is just trade bait anyway (or a backup if #3 pick becomes trade bait). And Kanter would just be one of the moves the Celtics are going to make this summer so its not like they're living and dying on this move. But I think its good start for their shopping spree.
Seems weird at first but I think this is a good deal for both teams. OKC needs to have a big season next year and as much money as they can horde next summer, this deal doesn't diminish the former and greatly enhances the latter.
Yes, Kanter is absolutely atrocious on defense but he's a top notch scorer around the basket and really good rebounder. If anyone can get something out of Kanter on the defensive end, it's Coach Stevens. If it works they've got 3 more years of a solid low post scorer and they're rolling into next year with a for real vet instead of another rookie. (This'll sound weird but hear me out: Kanter's comparable game is Shaq. Within three feet of the basket Kanter is a great (yeah, I said it, GREAT) but farther than that, he becomes more and more useless. He needs to be playing at the Center spot, keep him close to the basket, give up on him guarding the perimeter. Yeah, he still kinda sucks on defense even there, but he's a good rebounder and he's got a good shot at outscoring his opponent, so he should be a plus performer at the position)
The Thunder get a decent veteran center for a year, a young shooting prospect and a shot at a decent draft pick (Denzel Valentine could be waiting there or Brice Johnson). Johnson is a so-so center but they'll be looking for reliable defense without any need of offense from him. Young can shoot 3's, I'm kinda convinced he can't do anything else but a corner shooting threat is all OKC needs and he's still on his rookie contract. Though this draft is thought to be kinda soft, I'm convinced there will still be plenty of worthwhile players at #16. The real upside here is this: next summer OKC will be desperately scraping together every penny to re-sign Westbrook, Ibaka, Adams and (presumably) Durant. By jettisoning Kanter's long range money, OKC will have the maximum flexibility to hold together this core....or start over from scratch.
I like Kanter, I think he fits well with Durant and Westbrook but OKC needs money for next summer more than anything right now. And if the core does fall apart, Kanter is not the guy they're gonna wanna rebuild around anyway. Johnson is a serviceable player underneath. If Young's talents are maximized, he can still become the deadly scorer OKC needs and for now he's still cheap enough to experiment with. Brice Johnson, for example, can be a productive player in the right environment and a team with clear leaders and championship asirations could unlock the best of his game.
If the Celtics take on Kanter the danger is that Stevens is unable to make him useful (I don't think that's a real danger, honestly, Stevens is an umitigated genius of basketball) and he wallows at the end of the bench and the Celtics are stuck with him. Young is deep down the depth chart and likely won't get a chance to play in Boston. Johnson is a serviceable player underneath but the Celtics are really looking for scoring down there and with only a year left on his deal, Johnson is not their center of the future. The #16 pick is just trade bait anyway (or a backup if #3 pick becomes trade bait). And Kanter would just be one of the moves the Celtics are going to make this summer so its not like they're living and dying on this move. But I think its good start for their shopping spree.
Seems weird at first but I think this is a good deal for both teams. OKC needs to have a big season next year and as much money as they can horde next summer, this deal doesn't diminish the former and greatly enhances the latter.
Wednesday, June 22, 2016
NBA Bric-a-Brac
Looking back over a coupla pre-draft trades.
Bulls get Spencer Dinwiddie, Pistons get Cameron Bairstow. Not sure I see the need for this deal for either team: neither played much before, neither will play much next season and the contracts are identical. Guess the Bulls thought they needed depth at at the guard spot. The only thing I got out of this trade: Dinwiddie is black and Bairstow is white, I could've sworn it was the other way around.
Pacers get Jeff Teague, Jazz get George Hill, Hawks get the #12 pick. Teague is a more free wheeling PG than Hill, I suppose the Pacers preferred a pass-first PG who gets to the basket as opposed to a pass-first PG who looks to shot 3's. The Jazz get a wily veteran on a one-year deal to guide Dante Exum back from injury instead of another rookie, which is an odd choice for a team that builds on draft picks rather than free agents. I figured the Hawks would move Teague but I figured they'd be looking for a vet instead of a rookie; and who are they looking at with that pick: maybe Jakob Peotl or Wade Baldwin or Dejonte Murray, are they looking for size or shooting (I assume they're aiming at Mike Conley as their new PG). The Jazz and Pacers are just taking one year flyers while the Hawks get younger and cheaper (though they've traded away their last two 1st round picks).
Knicks get Derrick Rose, Justin Holiday and a 2017 2nd rd pick, Bulls get Robin Lopez, Jose Calderon, and Jerian Grant. The Knicks get one year of whatever Derrick Rose has to offer (I suspect he'll have a good but not great year) and the chance to develop a young scorer in Holiday. The Bulls get a reasonably priced center (to replace Noah and Gasol, I assume), a veteran PG (wouldn't be surprised to see the Bulls trade him again this summer) and a young PG (that I think has pretty good upside). I guess this is a good deal: the Knicks get a year of trumpeting their new star and trying to get into the post-season while the Bulls move on from the face of their franchise in the first step of their makeover (the Bulls are clearly tearing it all down and starting over), which had to happen some time.
Lebron James announced he has no intention of leaving Cleveland, Richard Jefferson un-retired. Dude, the idea that Lebron would leave Cleveland is utterly absurd to me--did anyone ever think George Steinbrenner would leave the Yankees to be the GM of the Brewers? No, that's stupid. Likewise, I don't care how many 'insider sources' you got, if you think Lebron is going to Miami or the Clippers then someone needs to take away your Twitter account. Lebron runs that team, he gets as much money as the law allows and a say in every decision on and off the court, why would he leave that? For Lebron to leave would be--yeah, I'll say it--the biggest mistake of his career. As for Jefferson, who retired immediately following Game Seven, he must have reconsidered the idea of leaving the game when someone pointed out to him that he can still make $10m or more next year to do what he's always done. But I'm sure he spent those three days of retirement getting drunk and feeling pretty good about himself, so he got a taste of how good retirement will be one o' these days.
Bulls get Spencer Dinwiddie, Pistons get Cameron Bairstow. Not sure I see the need for this deal for either team: neither played much before, neither will play much next season and the contracts are identical. Guess the Bulls thought they needed depth at at the guard spot. The only thing I got out of this trade: Dinwiddie is black and Bairstow is white, I could've sworn it was the other way around.
Pacers get Jeff Teague, Jazz get George Hill, Hawks get the #12 pick. Teague is a more free wheeling PG than Hill, I suppose the Pacers preferred a pass-first PG who gets to the basket as opposed to a pass-first PG who looks to shot 3's. The Jazz get a wily veteran on a one-year deal to guide Dante Exum back from injury instead of another rookie, which is an odd choice for a team that builds on draft picks rather than free agents. I figured the Hawks would move Teague but I figured they'd be looking for a vet instead of a rookie; and who are they looking at with that pick: maybe Jakob Peotl or Wade Baldwin or Dejonte Murray, are they looking for size or shooting (I assume they're aiming at Mike Conley as their new PG). The Jazz and Pacers are just taking one year flyers while the Hawks get younger and cheaper (though they've traded away their last two 1st round picks).
Knicks get Derrick Rose, Justin Holiday and a 2017 2nd rd pick, Bulls get Robin Lopez, Jose Calderon, and Jerian Grant. The Knicks get one year of whatever Derrick Rose has to offer (I suspect he'll have a good but not great year) and the chance to develop a young scorer in Holiday. The Bulls get a reasonably priced center (to replace Noah and Gasol, I assume), a veteran PG (wouldn't be surprised to see the Bulls trade him again this summer) and a young PG (that I think has pretty good upside). I guess this is a good deal: the Knicks get a year of trumpeting their new star and trying to get into the post-season while the Bulls move on from the face of their franchise in the first step of their makeover (the Bulls are clearly tearing it all down and starting over), which had to happen some time.
Lebron James announced he has no intention of leaving Cleveland, Richard Jefferson un-retired. Dude, the idea that Lebron would leave Cleveland is utterly absurd to me--did anyone ever think George Steinbrenner would leave the Yankees to be the GM of the Brewers? No, that's stupid. Likewise, I don't care how many 'insider sources' you got, if you think Lebron is going to Miami or the Clippers then someone needs to take away your Twitter account. Lebron runs that team, he gets as much money as the law allows and a say in every decision on and off the court, why would he leave that? For Lebron to leave would be--yeah, I'll say it--the biggest mistake of his career. As for Jefferson, who retired immediately following Game Seven, he must have reconsidered the idea of leaving the game when someone pointed out to him that he can still make $10m or more next year to do what he's always done. But I'm sure he spent those three days of retirement getting drunk and feeling pretty good about himself, so he got a taste of how good retirement will be one o' these days.
NBA Draft Preview
Before the draft tomorrow night, I wanted to get a few thoughts down on a handful of players. I think there's a good potential for a lot of trades this year (next year too), the rising cap means everybody has more room to wheel and deal and that begins on draft day. The Championship is over but tehcnically the draft is the last business of the season. The free agency period (opening July 7) is the beginning of next season and by the end of July a lot of teams will look really different.
Ben Simmons has apparently been told that he will be Philly's #1 pick. I watched him this year and he is a tremendous talent. He's not a natural born scorer but his instincts with the ball are impeccable and his size will give him a great chance for success at the next level. Comparisons include Lamar Odom, Boris Diaw, Evan Turner. Let's start with those: great handle, can survive in the lane, and a great sense of the game. Over time, though, is ceiling is Lebron James: ball handling big man who can dictate what everyone else needs to do from the point forward spot. Simmons needs to round out his scoring game before we can even begin to compare him to the great Lebron (and we need to see some of that defense too) but when we're talking prospects, why not think big? The downside is that he didn't give great effort at LSU but in his defense, his teammates were not great, his coach is a bit of a doofus and the b-ball culture in general at LSU is so-so (though it ought to be kinda great). Ehhh, I'm not worried about any of that. He was the #1 prospect for the entire season, you can't blame the kid for having his mind on other things (its LSU's job to keep him interested and they dropped the ball, don't blame the kid!). I think Ingram has great offensive upside but I'd go with Simmons #1.
Brandon Ingram attacked the basket really well in college and his 3-point stroke was impressive enough. I didn't watch enough to get a real sense of his defense but he's long and active, he can be taught to do the right things. I think his upside is great (especially early, don't be surprised if he develops faster than Simmons), he just needs to keep growing and getting his reps on the court. It seems like the Lakers love him, I think it'll be a good fit (they are a young squad but I expect them to be busy in July).
Dragan Bender has been rated top ten since last summer without any drop off. I haven't seen him, I know little about him but the fact that scouts didn't waver on him indicates that he must be a legit prospect (especially since foreign prospects often fall off the radar). I've seen him as high as #3 and I suspect the Celtics will take him because he presents tantalizing trade possibilities. I think the basic comparison for Bender is Nikola Mirotic but younger, quicker and probably a better shooter (which puts him in Dirk territory) or maybe something like a cross between Rashard Lewis and Danilo Gallinari, a long lanky wing man that can make plays or fill it up from outside. The Celtics could use that, the Suns could use that at the #4 pick, I don't expect Bender to last long in this draft.
Kris Dunn seems like a solid, though not terribly flashy PG. He's kinda local for the Celtics at #3, he could be groomed to replace Rubio for the Wolves at #5, the Pelicans can use all sorts of help everywhere at #6. I expect he'll be gone by the seventh pick.
Jaylen Brown needs to develop his game but he's certainly a fine athlete and another prospect that didn't drop from lottery range all year long. He seems kinda raw, not sure what he can do right away for some of these teams. I wouldn't wish getting drafted by the Kings on my worst enemy, but they do have Bay Area envy, if the kid from Cal is still there I expect the Kings to jump all over him. I think he's a terrible fit (with or without Cousins) but I wouldn't be surprised to see him go #8, though I have him going #9 to the Raptors.
A quick word on the Kentucky Wildcats: As a Cats fan I started this season with great hope for Skal and Murray and Briscoe. My initial thoughts were thus: Skal kinda sucks, Briscoe is nice but not a solid enough PG to dominate as a freshman, Murray is a nice scorer, solid prospect but not the kinda guy that carries a team, Poythress is an athlete but not very good at basketball, Marcus Lee is a phenomenal athlete but his offensive contributions will be minimal and I like Tyler Ulis but he's a bench player that shouldn't be getting 35 minutes a night. I love my Cats but I saw no scoring and just assumed this team would struggle all year long. Then something happened: hey, man, Ulis can play and when Ulis and Murray were both on, UK was actually pretty good (unfortunately unless they were both playing great, UK wasn't very good). Murray doesn't bomb 3's but he's a great midrange scorer and a smart player (comp: Rip Hamilton), Ulis is a waterbug type that keeps the tempo high and wants to lead a dynamic offense (comp: young Tony Parker), Skal has moments where you see what the scouts saw coming out of high school (nice turnaround hook, decent 15 footer, decent ballhandler) but he doesn't do anything well enough often enough to merit a lottery pick...but somebody's gonna take him I'm sure. I would not put Murray ahead of Buddy Hield on my board but I can see him going #3 to the Celtics (though I would prefer Bender) or #5 to Wolves (though I would prefer Hield), I think he goes #7 to the Nuggets. Ulis to my eye is a late 1st/early 2nd round guy, which is perfect because I think he's better for a good team, I can see him ending up with the Spurs or Warriors or maybe early 2nd round to the Bucks. As for Skal, I'm not sure, he's a project, he absolutely will not contribute in the first coupla years, so who can afford to stash him for a while? I have him going #13 to the Suns (who will dangle him as trade bait).
I kinda love Buddy Hield. He's a little older than the rest of these guys but he knows who he is, he can stroke the 3 and I think he's ready to play right away. I think he's a perfect fit for the Wolves at #5. (Right now Hield in Minnesota is my pick for ROY)
I also kinda love Damontis Sabonis. I don't think he's a star at the next level but I think he's a reliable, smart big man that can pass the ball and be in the right place at the right time. I have him going #7 to the Nuggets but if he's still there at #8 I think the Kings take him. (Also I think he's the perfect fit for the Warriors especially if they let Barnes go. I doubt they'd aggressively move up for a rookie but he'd be good as the future replacement for Bogut)
Marquesse Chriss is kinda the anti-Skal: whereas Skal was the #1 prospect out of high school who underwhelmed in NCAA but people still want him anyway, Chriss was not even in the top 50 who underwhelmed in NCAA...that people still want anyway. I don't get it, I don't see anything there that looks promising to me. I have him going #8 to the Kings, which I think would be disastrous for both. Realistically I think #20 to the Pacers is where he ought to go--though I think he's a reach even there!--but he'll be long gone by then.
I watched Henry Ellenson in the U-17 World Cup a coupla years back and I thought he was a good but not great prospect. I think he's a Zeller: big man, smart, moves pretty well, won't be a disaster but I don't see him as a big star or anything. He can grow into a nice swing man, can score a little, good pick and roll guy. If he can add a consistent 15-20 footer, he could be a useful player. I think he goes #10 to the Bucks.
Of all the guys getting a late push before the draft, I think Wade Baldwin has the highest upside. Smart, strong, good shooter, big kid, I think in the right situation he could really blossom. He's the Justise Winslow of this draft, should be a better scorer sooner. I have going #11 to the Magic but I think he might ought to be higher.
I've yet to be overwhelmed by Jakob Poetl but he's another prospect that stayed in the lottery projections pretty much all year long. He strikes me as a throwback downlow center which seems to be going away in the league, so unless he's a dominant rebounder I'm not sure what he does at the next level. I have him going #12 to the Jazz.
I don't know Deyonta Davis all that well. I was a big fan of his Michigan State teammate Denzel Valentine but while Valentine has dropped on injury concerns, Davis seems steady as a late lottery pick. I have him going #14 to the Bulls.
I just wanted to go over the guys I thought would be the lottery picks but there are a few others that strike me as undervalued: Brice Johnson, Denzel Valentine, Thon Maker, Diamond Stone, Zhou Qi, Isiah Whitehead, AJ Hammons, Wayne Selden and Malcolm Brogdon.
I think Johnson has the widest variance of any 1st round prospect: he could be really great or he could be truly awful (a hard nose defensive version of Michael Beasley, I guess). I think Valentine is going to be great at the next level: big kid, smart, can shoot, good passer, decent playmaker. If he stays healthy I think he can be a really really good player. Maker is a high school kid that no one knows how to value--that caught my attention. Is he the next Hassan Whiteside or the next Andrew Bynum? I dunno, but someone's gonna roll the dice on him. I watched Stone in the last U17 World Cup and I was blown away, that kid could do everything in the lane, not sure why he is more highly touted. If he drops into the 2nd round, someone's gonna get a great value (if the Sixers trade away all their big men, they'd be wise to spend one of those late 1st round picks on Stone). Zhou Qi is a Chinese prospect who looks to be good at everything....and I'm not sure why he isn't more highly rated. The rumors that he's been lying about his age seem to have been debunked. If the Celtics can get him at #35, I think that'd be a great pick. Whitehead impressed me when I saw him with Seton Hall, that kid can ball, he'd be a good pick for the Pelicans with one of their 2nd round picks. Hammons is a boom/bust guy: could be a rock down low for years to come (think what Tristan Thompson just did in the Finals) or he could be a useless malcontent that never really fits in (think Andrew Bynum). For a team that needs size, they should give him a shot. I liked Selden, not a great player, but he could be a reliable role player that does what needs to be done. If he's still around after #50 then I think a lot of scouting departments will be kicking themselves. Brogdon, like Denzel Valentine, is a smart, reliable guy that will be a good player for a good team (he'd be better off not getting drafted and then trying to hook on with the Spurs).
Ben Simmons has apparently been told that he will be Philly's #1 pick. I watched him this year and he is a tremendous talent. He's not a natural born scorer but his instincts with the ball are impeccable and his size will give him a great chance for success at the next level. Comparisons include Lamar Odom, Boris Diaw, Evan Turner. Let's start with those: great handle, can survive in the lane, and a great sense of the game. Over time, though, is ceiling is Lebron James: ball handling big man who can dictate what everyone else needs to do from the point forward spot. Simmons needs to round out his scoring game before we can even begin to compare him to the great Lebron (and we need to see some of that defense too) but when we're talking prospects, why not think big? The downside is that he didn't give great effort at LSU but in his defense, his teammates were not great, his coach is a bit of a doofus and the b-ball culture in general at LSU is so-so (though it ought to be kinda great). Ehhh, I'm not worried about any of that. He was the #1 prospect for the entire season, you can't blame the kid for having his mind on other things (its LSU's job to keep him interested and they dropped the ball, don't blame the kid!). I think Ingram has great offensive upside but I'd go with Simmons #1.
Brandon Ingram attacked the basket really well in college and his 3-point stroke was impressive enough. I didn't watch enough to get a real sense of his defense but he's long and active, he can be taught to do the right things. I think his upside is great (especially early, don't be surprised if he develops faster than Simmons), he just needs to keep growing and getting his reps on the court. It seems like the Lakers love him, I think it'll be a good fit (they are a young squad but I expect them to be busy in July).
Dragan Bender has been rated top ten since last summer without any drop off. I haven't seen him, I know little about him but the fact that scouts didn't waver on him indicates that he must be a legit prospect (especially since foreign prospects often fall off the radar). I've seen him as high as #3 and I suspect the Celtics will take him because he presents tantalizing trade possibilities. I think the basic comparison for Bender is Nikola Mirotic but younger, quicker and probably a better shooter (which puts him in Dirk territory) or maybe something like a cross between Rashard Lewis and Danilo Gallinari, a long lanky wing man that can make plays or fill it up from outside. The Celtics could use that, the Suns could use that at the #4 pick, I don't expect Bender to last long in this draft.
Kris Dunn seems like a solid, though not terribly flashy PG. He's kinda local for the Celtics at #3, he could be groomed to replace Rubio for the Wolves at #5, the Pelicans can use all sorts of help everywhere at #6. I expect he'll be gone by the seventh pick.
Jaylen Brown needs to develop his game but he's certainly a fine athlete and another prospect that didn't drop from lottery range all year long. He seems kinda raw, not sure what he can do right away for some of these teams. I wouldn't wish getting drafted by the Kings on my worst enemy, but they do have Bay Area envy, if the kid from Cal is still there I expect the Kings to jump all over him. I think he's a terrible fit (with or without Cousins) but I wouldn't be surprised to see him go #8, though I have him going #9 to the Raptors.
A quick word on the Kentucky Wildcats: As a Cats fan I started this season with great hope for Skal and Murray and Briscoe. My initial thoughts were thus: Skal kinda sucks, Briscoe is nice but not a solid enough PG to dominate as a freshman, Murray is a nice scorer, solid prospect but not the kinda guy that carries a team, Poythress is an athlete but not very good at basketball, Marcus Lee is a phenomenal athlete but his offensive contributions will be minimal and I like Tyler Ulis but he's a bench player that shouldn't be getting 35 minutes a night. I love my Cats but I saw no scoring and just assumed this team would struggle all year long. Then something happened: hey, man, Ulis can play and when Ulis and Murray were both on, UK was actually pretty good (unfortunately unless they were both playing great, UK wasn't very good). Murray doesn't bomb 3's but he's a great midrange scorer and a smart player (comp: Rip Hamilton), Ulis is a waterbug type that keeps the tempo high and wants to lead a dynamic offense (comp: young Tony Parker), Skal has moments where you see what the scouts saw coming out of high school (nice turnaround hook, decent 15 footer, decent ballhandler) but he doesn't do anything well enough often enough to merit a lottery pick...but somebody's gonna take him I'm sure. I would not put Murray ahead of Buddy Hield on my board but I can see him going #3 to the Celtics (though I would prefer Bender) or #5 to Wolves (though I would prefer Hield), I think he goes #7 to the Nuggets. Ulis to my eye is a late 1st/early 2nd round guy, which is perfect because I think he's better for a good team, I can see him ending up with the Spurs or Warriors or maybe early 2nd round to the Bucks. As for Skal, I'm not sure, he's a project, he absolutely will not contribute in the first coupla years, so who can afford to stash him for a while? I have him going #13 to the Suns (who will dangle him as trade bait).
I kinda love Buddy Hield. He's a little older than the rest of these guys but he knows who he is, he can stroke the 3 and I think he's ready to play right away. I think he's a perfect fit for the Wolves at #5. (Right now Hield in Minnesota is my pick for ROY)
I also kinda love Damontis Sabonis. I don't think he's a star at the next level but I think he's a reliable, smart big man that can pass the ball and be in the right place at the right time. I have him going #7 to the Nuggets but if he's still there at #8 I think the Kings take him. (Also I think he's the perfect fit for the Warriors especially if they let Barnes go. I doubt they'd aggressively move up for a rookie but he'd be good as the future replacement for Bogut)
Marquesse Chriss is kinda the anti-Skal: whereas Skal was the #1 prospect out of high school who underwhelmed in NCAA but people still want him anyway, Chriss was not even in the top 50 who underwhelmed in NCAA...that people still want anyway. I don't get it, I don't see anything there that looks promising to me. I have him going #8 to the Kings, which I think would be disastrous for both. Realistically I think #20 to the Pacers is where he ought to go--though I think he's a reach even there!--but he'll be long gone by then.
I watched Henry Ellenson in the U-17 World Cup a coupla years back and I thought he was a good but not great prospect. I think he's a Zeller: big man, smart, moves pretty well, won't be a disaster but I don't see him as a big star or anything. He can grow into a nice swing man, can score a little, good pick and roll guy. If he can add a consistent 15-20 footer, he could be a useful player. I think he goes #10 to the Bucks.
Of all the guys getting a late push before the draft, I think Wade Baldwin has the highest upside. Smart, strong, good shooter, big kid, I think in the right situation he could really blossom. He's the Justise Winslow of this draft, should be a better scorer sooner. I have going #11 to the Magic but I think he might ought to be higher.
I've yet to be overwhelmed by Jakob Poetl but he's another prospect that stayed in the lottery projections pretty much all year long. He strikes me as a throwback downlow center which seems to be going away in the league, so unless he's a dominant rebounder I'm not sure what he does at the next level. I have him going #12 to the Jazz.
I don't know Deyonta Davis all that well. I was a big fan of his Michigan State teammate Denzel Valentine but while Valentine has dropped on injury concerns, Davis seems steady as a late lottery pick. I have him going #14 to the Bulls.
I just wanted to go over the guys I thought would be the lottery picks but there are a few others that strike me as undervalued: Brice Johnson, Denzel Valentine, Thon Maker, Diamond Stone, Zhou Qi, Isiah Whitehead, AJ Hammons, Wayne Selden and Malcolm Brogdon.
I think Johnson has the widest variance of any 1st round prospect: he could be really great or he could be truly awful (a hard nose defensive version of Michael Beasley, I guess). I think Valentine is going to be great at the next level: big kid, smart, can shoot, good passer, decent playmaker. If he stays healthy I think he can be a really really good player. Maker is a high school kid that no one knows how to value--that caught my attention. Is he the next Hassan Whiteside or the next Andrew Bynum? I dunno, but someone's gonna roll the dice on him. I watched Stone in the last U17 World Cup and I was blown away, that kid could do everything in the lane, not sure why he is more highly touted. If he drops into the 2nd round, someone's gonna get a great value (if the Sixers trade away all their big men, they'd be wise to spend one of those late 1st round picks on Stone). Zhou Qi is a Chinese prospect who looks to be good at everything....and I'm not sure why he isn't more highly rated. The rumors that he's been lying about his age seem to have been debunked. If the Celtics can get him at #35, I think that'd be a great pick. Whitehead impressed me when I saw him with Seton Hall, that kid can ball, he'd be a good pick for the Pelicans with one of their 2nd round picks. Hammons is a boom/bust guy: could be a rock down low for years to come (think what Tristan Thompson just did in the Finals) or he could be a useless malcontent that never really fits in (think Andrew Bynum). For a team that needs size, they should give him a shot. I liked Selden, not a great player, but he could be a reliable role player that does what needs to be done. If he's still around after #50 then I think a lot of scouting departments will be kicking themselves. Brogdon, like Denzel Valentine, is a smart, reliable guy that will be a good player for a good team (he'd be better off not getting drafted and then trying to hook on with the Spurs).
Tuesday, June 21, 2016
NBA Finals
Oh, man, Game Seven was the classic we all hoped it would be. Went down to the wire, some great defensive plays (Lebron's rundown block is now his preeminent career highlight!) though only a modicum of clutch offensive play (Kyrie with the game winner). The game itself went back and forth all the way through, completely unlike the other six games in this series. I kept waiting for the Warriors to get hot but the longer you wait for that to happen, the more you know it isn't coming.
Klay and Curry did not shoot particularly well and still the game went into the last few minutes. Draymond was absolutely brilliant, Iguodala played his best but really no one else played well. Can't figure out why Livingston didn't play more and why on earth was Ezeli out there late in the game? Harrison Barnes was just terrible (for the last three games really) and Speights never really got a chance to do anything. The longer the series went on the more discombobulated the Warriors got. And without Klay and/or Curry piling on points, the Warriors were grinding their wheels all night.
The Cavs got contributions from everyone. Love got every rebund, Kyrie hit the game winner, Tristan plugged the lane with authority, even Shumpert had a big four point play. JR Smith gave them some big buckets early in the 3rd quarter (not sure why the Cavs went away from him, he was Warrior hot for a while there). And Lebron (MVP) was his usual badass self: led all players in points, rebounds, blocks, and everything else--and this was in a seven game series against the greatest single season team of all time! I can't believe Lebron still has haters out there but Twitter assures me it is so. *smh*
But let's keep one thing in mind: the Warriors played awful and the Cavs played flawlessly and it was still close very late in the game. The Warriors struggled with injuries and suspensions, Klay never found the form that he had earlier in the playoffs and Barnes disappeared completely, and they still could've won games Five and Seven. Last year we downgraded the Warriors performance because they faced so many compromised squads, so this year I think its important to remember that they were the compromised squad and still should've won it all. The Cavs played three great games in a row to pull off the improbable but the Warriors still had the best team from beginning of the season to the end (well, til about the last 3-4 minutes anyway). Furthermore, I expect the Warriors to re-load (Batum, Teletovic and Tyler Zeller and they'll win 65 games without much problem). Great series, memorable, congrats to Lebron in particular.
(Through it all I couldn't help thinking of Russell Westbrook sitting on his couch watching the Cavs come back on the Warriors. That guy is already getting in shape for next year, a contract year for him, he wants to start next season TODAY! Right now, he's my pre-pre-pre-season pick for MVP. I expect him to be on a mission to destroy everyone he faces)
Klay and Curry did not shoot particularly well and still the game went into the last few minutes. Draymond was absolutely brilliant, Iguodala played his best but really no one else played well. Can't figure out why Livingston didn't play more and why on earth was Ezeli out there late in the game? Harrison Barnes was just terrible (for the last three games really) and Speights never really got a chance to do anything. The longer the series went on the more discombobulated the Warriors got. And without Klay and/or Curry piling on points, the Warriors were grinding their wheels all night.
The Cavs got contributions from everyone. Love got every rebund, Kyrie hit the game winner, Tristan plugged the lane with authority, even Shumpert had a big four point play. JR Smith gave them some big buckets early in the 3rd quarter (not sure why the Cavs went away from him, he was Warrior hot for a while there). And Lebron (MVP) was his usual badass self: led all players in points, rebounds, blocks, and everything else--and this was in a seven game series against the greatest single season team of all time! I can't believe Lebron still has haters out there but Twitter assures me it is so. *smh*
But let's keep one thing in mind: the Warriors played awful and the Cavs played flawlessly and it was still close very late in the game. The Warriors struggled with injuries and suspensions, Klay never found the form that he had earlier in the playoffs and Barnes disappeared completely, and they still could've won games Five and Seven. Last year we downgraded the Warriors performance because they faced so many compromised squads, so this year I think its important to remember that they were the compromised squad and still should've won it all. The Cavs played three great games in a row to pull off the improbable but the Warriors still had the best team from beginning of the season to the end (well, til about the last 3-4 minutes anyway). Furthermore, I expect the Warriors to re-load (Batum, Teletovic and Tyler Zeller and they'll win 65 games without much problem). Great series, memorable, congrats to Lebron in particular.
(Through it all I couldn't help thinking of Russell Westbrook sitting on his couch watching the Cavs come back on the Warriors. That guy is already getting in shape for next year, a contract year for him, he wants to start next season TODAY! Right now, he's my pre-pre-pre-season pick for MVP. I expect him to be on a mission to destroy everyone he faces)
Copa America
USA 2-1 Ecuador
Bobby Wood's play led to both of USA's goals (though you'd have to go pretty far back in the replay to see his influence): the first was Jones to Dempsey for a beautiful header, the second was Dempsey's shot that Zardes finished off but both were the result of Wood getting loose in the box. Nice work, Bobby. Ecuador was able to get a lot of chances up the middle in the 2nd half that they failed to convert, but they were scary nonetheless. USA had better shore up its interior defense if they expect to advance to the Finals. USA was generally the better team, held the ball with good confidence and finished both of their best opportunities. They deserve to be in the semifinals and that's a bit of surprise really. One hopes for a good showing in any tournament (but especially when we're the home team), but slipping past Colombia and avoiding Brazil led USA into the final four, which no one would have predicted.
Colombia (4-2PKs) 0-0 Peru
Didn't see this game. Peru beat Brazil and hung a clean sheet on Colombia, not a bad tourney for those guys. Can't help feeling that Colombia hasn't played their best yet, either they bring it hardcore against Chile or they just don't get it together. We'll see.
Argentina 4-1 Venezuela
Venezuela played their hearts out but Argentina pounces on every tiny mistake. Higuan's first goal was brilliant, brilliant touch on a brilliant pass. Brilliant. The 2nd goal was a defensive flub, the 3rd goal was defensive flub and the 4th goal caught the keeper leaning the wrong way. Argentina plays with such ease, its hard to tell if they're even trying. Let's hope that laissez faire attitude leads to disappointment against USA.
Chile 7-0 Mexico
Holy frijole! Mexico rolled into this tournament as one of the favorites but they are rolling out with tire tracks all up and down 'em. This wasn't a case of Mexico having a bad game--Chile was flat out at better at everything from beginning to end (well, I guess, honestly I stopped watching at 5-0). The first goal came early, couldn't tell if it was just a lucky goal or the beginning of something bigger, felt like Mexico would rise up and respond but they did not. Chile scored a second goal right before half time (and don't forget: they had a goal called back for offsides that easily could've counted if the dude had just held his run for two seconds), from there it just become a rout. Mexico never got going, they generated no offense at all. Chile stuck in three quick ones in the 2nd half (and missed a couple more that should've done better). Dude, when you're down 5-0 and your coach is bringing in defenders, you are in serious trouble. It was getting late, I had to go, I didn't see the last two goals, I'm assuming they made Mexico look bad. This was a high level beatdown, Serena-like in just the pure domination of a good--not weak--opponent. Right now Chile is the truth.
Semifinals
USA-Argentina
Messi roams all over the place with such confidence that man-marking Argentina doesn't even seem possible. I would go with a 3-6-1 type thing with Brooks, Cameron and Beslor bunkering in front of Guzan, Beckermann in the defensive center mid like a stopper, Yedlin and Zardes free floating on the wings, Pulisic and Johnson liberally moving forward in the slots, Nagbe trying lead the counter attack to Dempsey up top. (Oops, I left out Bradley...yeah, no regrets on that mistake) USA will be without Bedoya (I think he's been USA's best mid so far) and Jones (frankly, I'm curious to see what Nagbe can do). I feel like zone coverage is the only thing that can sustain, hopefully Messi gets lost in his own freedom and USA can bomb a counter to catch the Argentine defenders playing too far up. I don't see any other way USA could even hope to score a victory here. Argentina is casually awesome, they have a lot of firepower and are expecting to win easily. USA will be forced to mix it up and that's really USA's only weapon: even we don't know what we're gonna do! Bunker, counter attack, play for a penalty and/or a draw, hope the PK's produce a miracle. I think I'm being optimistic when I say Argentina wins 2-1.
Colombia-Chile
Colombia and Mexico were sorta considered the favorites going into this tournament. No one knew what to make of Brazil (they kinda sucked) or Argentina (they've been amazing), so the smart money fell on Colombia's recent run of good form and Mexico's familiarity with USA. Chile just whomped the shit out of one of those teams, I'll go ahead and take them to beat Colombia, too. Colombia hasn't really had to be good yet so maybe they're saving it or maybe they just don't got it right now; Chile is playing the best I've ever seen Chile play, does that sustain or is that just a fluke? I'm going Chile 3-2: Colombia plays their best but Chile is no fluke. Either Chile catches Colombia showboating or Colombia rises up and plays their best game of the tournament. Either way, I'm expecting a good match.
Argentina-Chile feels like a good Final, doesn't it?
Bobby Wood's play led to both of USA's goals (though you'd have to go pretty far back in the replay to see his influence): the first was Jones to Dempsey for a beautiful header, the second was Dempsey's shot that Zardes finished off but both were the result of Wood getting loose in the box. Nice work, Bobby. Ecuador was able to get a lot of chances up the middle in the 2nd half that they failed to convert, but they were scary nonetheless. USA had better shore up its interior defense if they expect to advance to the Finals. USA was generally the better team, held the ball with good confidence and finished both of their best opportunities. They deserve to be in the semifinals and that's a bit of surprise really. One hopes for a good showing in any tournament (but especially when we're the home team), but slipping past Colombia and avoiding Brazil led USA into the final four, which no one would have predicted.
Colombia (4-2PKs) 0-0 Peru
Didn't see this game. Peru beat Brazil and hung a clean sheet on Colombia, not a bad tourney for those guys. Can't help feeling that Colombia hasn't played their best yet, either they bring it hardcore against Chile or they just don't get it together. We'll see.
Argentina 4-1 Venezuela
Venezuela played their hearts out but Argentina pounces on every tiny mistake. Higuan's first goal was brilliant, brilliant touch on a brilliant pass. Brilliant. The 2nd goal was a defensive flub, the 3rd goal was defensive flub and the 4th goal caught the keeper leaning the wrong way. Argentina plays with such ease, its hard to tell if they're even trying. Let's hope that laissez faire attitude leads to disappointment against USA.
Chile 7-0 Mexico
Holy frijole! Mexico rolled into this tournament as one of the favorites but they are rolling out with tire tracks all up and down 'em. This wasn't a case of Mexico having a bad game--Chile was flat out at better at everything from beginning to end (well, I guess, honestly I stopped watching at 5-0). The first goal came early, couldn't tell if it was just a lucky goal or the beginning of something bigger, felt like Mexico would rise up and respond but they did not. Chile scored a second goal right before half time (and don't forget: they had a goal called back for offsides that easily could've counted if the dude had just held his run for two seconds), from there it just become a rout. Mexico never got going, they generated no offense at all. Chile stuck in three quick ones in the 2nd half (and missed a couple more that should've done better). Dude, when you're down 5-0 and your coach is bringing in defenders, you are in serious trouble. It was getting late, I had to go, I didn't see the last two goals, I'm assuming they made Mexico look bad. This was a high level beatdown, Serena-like in just the pure domination of a good--not weak--opponent. Right now Chile is the truth.
Semifinals
USA-Argentina
Messi roams all over the place with such confidence that man-marking Argentina doesn't even seem possible. I would go with a 3-6-1 type thing with Brooks, Cameron and Beslor bunkering in front of Guzan, Beckermann in the defensive center mid like a stopper, Yedlin and Zardes free floating on the wings, Pulisic and Johnson liberally moving forward in the slots, Nagbe trying lead the counter attack to Dempsey up top. (Oops, I left out Bradley...yeah, no regrets on that mistake) USA will be without Bedoya (I think he's been USA's best mid so far) and Jones (frankly, I'm curious to see what Nagbe can do). I feel like zone coverage is the only thing that can sustain, hopefully Messi gets lost in his own freedom and USA can bomb a counter to catch the Argentine defenders playing too far up. I don't see any other way USA could even hope to score a victory here. Argentina is casually awesome, they have a lot of firepower and are expecting to win easily. USA will be forced to mix it up and that's really USA's only weapon: even we don't know what we're gonna do! Bunker, counter attack, play for a penalty and/or a draw, hope the PK's produce a miracle. I think I'm being optimistic when I say Argentina wins 2-1.
Colombia-Chile
Colombia and Mexico were sorta considered the favorites going into this tournament. No one knew what to make of Brazil (they kinda sucked) or Argentina (they've been amazing), so the smart money fell on Colombia's recent run of good form and Mexico's familiarity with USA. Chile just whomped the shit out of one of those teams, I'll go ahead and take them to beat Colombia, too. Colombia hasn't really had to be good yet so maybe they're saving it or maybe they just don't got it right now; Chile is playing the best I've ever seen Chile play, does that sustain or is that just a fluke? I'm going Chile 3-2: Colombia plays their best but Chile is no fluke. Either Chile catches Colombia showboating or Colombia rises up and plays their best game of the tournament. Either way, I'm expecting a good match.
Argentina-Chile feels like a good Final, doesn't it?
Sunday, June 19, 2016
NBA Finals Game Seven
As of six games, the Cavs and Warriors have each scored 610 points...and yet none of the games was even close. Amazing. Warriors are a 5 point fave tonight and though each of the games has been decided by double digits, tonight's game is gonna be close, right? I mean this series has been fantastic, surely the last game will be one for the ages.
Tonight's game is a continuation of the thesis from the beginning: if Klay and Curry shoot the lights out, the Warriors will win comfortably; if not, the Cavs have a great chance to finish off the comeback.
Iguodala's got back spasms, Bogut is out, Curry has nagging injuries, Draymond is just nagging, Klay has yet to really have a good game, Barnes has been kinda terrible lately, Livingston needs to have a good game, Speight needs to score some points, I feel like Barbosa and Varejao have done more than their share and I can't see either of them doing much tonight.
Lebron's at his very best, Kyrie has shown the ability to score at will, Love is much maligned (but not that bad), Tristan has been a great physical presence and a monster on the boards, Smith has had moments but generally hasn't contributed much, Shumpert continues to un-impress me, Dellevadova has kinda disappeared, Frye needs to score some points tonight, Williams and Mozgov probably won't get much time tonight.
I thought the Warriors would win Game Five without Draymond. I thought the Warriors would find their shooting touch and win Game Six. Nope on both of those. Cavs are really rolling right now and the Warriors are scuffling. I still think the Warriors are the better team and at home I think Klay and Curry will score big points. I think Livingston will have an important role tonight, Speights needs to score off the bench. Iguodala has to suffer through but I don't see him being terribly effective on the offensive end.
Lebron will keep bringing it (though if he was better in Game Four, this might be over by now), Kyrie will overdo it, Smith will hit enough shots to be important, Tristan needs to get under Draymond's skin. For a surprise pivotal player, I'll go with Channing Frye: he had a few big games earlier in the playoffs but hasn't seen much of the floor in the Finals. I think he'll get some time tonight and if he's scoring buckets, he could spark the charge for the Cavs.
I'll go with the Warriors (-5). I've got no rooting interest, just a fan of the game. Man, I'm looking forward to it!
Tonight's game is a continuation of the thesis from the beginning: if Klay and Curry shoot the lights out, the Warriors will win comfortably; if not, the Cavs have a great chance to finish off the comeback.
Iguodala's got back spasms, Bogut is out, Curry has nagging injuries, Draymond is just nagging, Klay has yet to really have a good game, Barnes has been kinda terrible lately, Livingston needs to have a good game, Speight needs to score some points, I feel like Barbosa and Varejao have done more than their share and I can't see either of them doing much tonight.
Lebron's at his very best, Kyrie has shown the ability to score at will, Love is much maligned (but not that bad), Tristan has been a great physical presence and a monster on the boards, Smith has had moments but generally hasn't contributed much, Shumpert continues to un-impress me, Dellevadova has kinda disappeared, Frye needs to score some points tonight, Williams and Mozgov probably won't get much time tonight.
I thought the Warriors would win Game Five without Draymond. I thought the Warriors would find their shooting touch and win Game Six. Nope on both of those. Cavs are really rolling right now and the Warriors are scuffling. I still think the Warriors are the better team and at home I think Klay and Curry will score big points. I think Livingston will have an important role tonight, Speights needs to score off the bench. Iguodala has to suffer through but I don't see him being terribly effective on the offensive end.
Lebron will keep bringing it (though if he was better in Game Four, this might be over by now), Kyrie will overdo it, Smith will hit enough shots to be important, Tristan needs to get under Draymond's skin. For a surprise pivotal player, I'll go with Channing Frye: he had a few big games earlier in the playoffs but hasn't seen much of the floor in the Finals. I think he'll get some time tonight and if he's scoring buckets, he could spark the charge for the Cavs.
I'll go with the Warriors (-5). I've got no rooting interest, just a fan of the game. Man, I'm looking forward to it!
The Sam Hinkie Dossier (part 1)
Now that Sam Hinkie is out of Philly--and perhaps out of the NBA forever--I wanted to go back over his record to measure his successes and failures. Was there a method to his madness? Has he made the Sixers a better franchise? Was the 'Process' a success?
First let's ask the question: what is a GM's job? My answer is that capturing value is the GM's job: getting W's at the most profitable rate is the ideal. Finding talent and chemistry within the limits of one's resources is the balance the GM must strike. Winning in a manner that crushes the team's future is sugary success at best but relying too much on the future at the expense of today is brutal for the fans and the team members alike. We already know that Hinkie didn't win a lot of games in his time with the Sixers. But did he create value for the franchise?
I looked over all of his transactions (well, all the ones I could find) to see if he had an eye for talent or a knack for getting the most value. The methods for accumulating players are drafts, waiver claims, free agency signings and trades. What was Hinkie's record at each of those methods?
Hinkie presided over 3 drafts in his tenure at Philly. In 2013 he drafted Michael Carter-Williams (#11), Glen Rice Jr (#35), Pierre Jackson (#42). MCW took Rookie of the Year (in an albeit soft rookie class); the next year he was traded. Rice was traded on draft day. Pierre Jackson was part of the trade that sent Jrue Holiday to New Orleans and brought Nerlens Noel to Philly. So none of his first three draft picks survived Hinkie's tenure with the team, none were part of Philly's future plans.
Philly had 7 picks in 2014 draft taking Joel Embiid (#3), Elfrid Payton (#10), KJ McDaniels (#32), Jerami Grant (#39), Russ Smith (#47), Vasilije Micic (#52), Nemanja Dangubic (#54). Embiid has yet to make his NBA debut, though he seems ready to appear in 2016-17. Payton was traded on draft day. McDaniels had a fine rookie year for the Sixers but was traded the next year (after demurring on signing long term). Grant has established himself as a decent rotation player, a solid backup on a young team. Smith was traded. Micic has yet to make his NBA debut but the Sixers still hold his rights. Dangubic was traded on draft day. Three of the seven are still available to the Sixers: Grant is not a star but a nice contributor for a 2nd round pick, Embiid is still an unknown though a promising one, Micic may well appear in the NBA one day (or maybe not); the other four were traded.
Philly had 6 picks in the 2015 draft taking Jahlil Okafor (#3), Willy Hernangomez (#35), Richaun Holmes (#37), Arturas Gudaitis (#47), JP Tokoto (#58), Luka Mitrovic (#60). Okafor had a promising rookie season and though trade rumors are swirling, I think they'll keep Okafor and build around him going forward. Hernangomez was traded. Holmes had a nice rookie season (for a 2nd rounder) and looks to at least remain on an NBA roster for a while. Gudaitis was traded. Tokoto was waived before the 2015-16 season. Mitrovic was traded. Two of the six showed potential to keep playing for the Sixers, the other four are already gone.
So let's look back over the draft record. Hinkie made 16 total picks: 3 (Okafor, Grant, Holmes) have played and still on the roster going forward; 2 (Embiid, Micic) have yet to play but are still available to the Sixers; 1 (Tokoto) was waived without ever playing a game; 10 (Carter-Williams, Rice Jr, Jackson, Payton, McDaniels, Smith, Dangubic, Hernangomez, Gudaitis, Mitrovic) were traded.
Let's just look purely at the talent. 1st round picks: Carter-Williams, Embiid, Payton, Okafor. Three of those four guys finished top 5 in ROY voting and not hard to imagine that the 4th guy will, too. Not bad, how many other GMs can say that about their last four 1st round picks?
2nd round picks: Rice Jr., Jackson, McDaniels, Grant, Smith, Micic, Dangubic, Hernangomez, Holmes, Gudaitis, Tokoto, Mitrovic. McDaniels is an exciting athlete, so-so basketball player; Grant and Holmes are decent rotation players; Rice Jr, Smith, and Tokoto are not NBA players; Micic, Dangubic, Hernangomez, Gudaitis and Mitrovic are unknowns; Pierre Jackson could still emerge as a rotation guy in the league. So that's 3/12 rotation guys, 5/12 are foreigners we haven't seen yet and only 1/12 is a clear non-player. 2nd round picks usually don't work out but more than half of Hinkie's twelve 2nd round picks still have a shot at being rotation players. My gut reaction is that's a pretty good record.
In terms of the Sixers franchise, in three drafts Hinkie gave the Sixers one bonafide starter (Okafor), one potential star (Embiid), two decent rotation guys (Grant, Holmes), one foreign unknown (Micic). I would suggest that being able to trade away 10 players for something is (probably) pretty good, a lot of players drafted into the NBA will never return any value for the team that drafted them. (I'll return to Hinkie's trades in a later post)
I'm willing to call this a successful run--and if Embiid becomes a star then it becomes an unimpeachable success. It has yet to look promising because the team has returned so few W's but the GM's job stretches into the future, laying the groundwork for future teams is also among his duties. By gutting the Sixer roster that he inherited and redeeming as many draft picks as possible, Hinkie raised the value of the Sixers' potential returns. The disappointing part of Hinkie's record here is that he has mostly redeemed those future draft picks for future-r draft picks, which is fine for the GM but doesn't really benefit anyone else in the organization (at this point, not even Hinkie!). Hinkie wanted to build around the draft and I'd say he did an above average job. Still time to see how it plays out on the court.
First let's ask the question: what is a GM's job? My answer is that capturing value is the GM's job: getting W's at the most profitable rate is the ideal. Finding talent and chemistry within the limits of one's resources is the balance the GM must strike. Winning in a manner that crushes the team's future is sugary success at best but relying too much on the future at the expense of today is brutal for the fans and the team members alike. We already know that Hinkie didn't win a lot of games in his time with the Sixers. But did he create value for the franchise?
I looked over all of his transactions (well, all the ones I could find) to see if he had an eye for talent or a knack for getting the most value. The methods for accumulating players are drafts, waiver claims, free agency signings and trades. What was Hinkie's record at each of those methods?
Hinkie presided over 3 drafts in his tenure at Philly. In 2013 he drafted Michael Carter-Williams (#11), Glen Rice Jr (#35), Pierre Jackson (#42). MCW took Rookie of the Year (in an albeit soft rookie class); the next year he was traded. Rice was traded on draft day. Pierre Jackson was part of the trade that sent Jrue Holiday to New Orleans and brought Nerlens Noel to Philly. So none of his first three draft picks survived Hinkie's tenure with the team, none were part of Philly's future plans.
Philly had 7 picks in 2014 draft taking Joel Embiid (#3), Elfrid Payton (#10), KJ McDaniels (#32), Jerami Grant (#39), Russ Smith (#47), Vasilije Micic (#52), Nemanja Dangubic (#54). Embiid has yet to make his NBA debut, though he seems ready to appear in 2016-17. Payton was traded on draft day. McDaniels had a fine rookie year for the Sixers but was traded the next year (after demurring on signing long term). Grant has established himself as a decent rotation player, a solid backup on a young team. Smith was traded. Micic has yet to make his NBA debut but the Sixers still hold his rights. Dangubic was traded on draft day. Three of the seven are still available to the Sixers: Grant is not a star but a nice contributor for a 2nd round pick, Embiid is still an unknown though a promising one, Micic may well appear in the NBA one day (or maybe not); the other four were traded.
Philly had 6 picks in the 2015 draft taking Jahlil Okafor (#3), Willy Hernangomez (#35), Richaun Holmes (#37), Arturas Gudaitis (#47), JP Tokoto (#58), Luka Mitrovic (#60). Okafor had a promising rookie season and though trade rumors are swirling, I think they'll keep Okafor and build around him going forward. Hernangomez was traded. Holmes had a nice rookie season (for a 2nd rounder) and looks to at least remain on an NBA roster for a while. Gudaitis was traded. Tokoto was waived before the 2015-16 season. Mitrovic was traded. Two of the six showed potential to keep playing for the Sixers, the other four are already gone.
So let's look back over the draft record. Hinkie made 16 total picks: 3 (Okafor, Grant, Holmes) have played and still on the roster going forward; 2 (Embiid, Micic) have yet to play but are still available to the Sixers; 1 (Tokoto) was waived without ever playing a game; 10 (Carter-Williams, Rice Jr, Jackson, Payton, McDaniels, Smith, Dangubic, Hernangomez, Gudaitis, Mitrovic) were traded.
Let's just look purely at the talent. 1st round picks: Carter-Williams, Embiid, Payton, Okafor. Three of those four guys finished top 5 in ROY voting and not hard to imagine that the 4th guy will, too. Not bad, how many other GMs can say that about their last four 1st round picks?
2nd round picks: Rice Jr., Jackson, McDaniels, Grant, Smith, Micic, Dangubic, Hernangomez, Holmes, Gudaitis, Tokoto, Mitrovic. McDaniels is an exciting athlete, so-so basketball player; Grant and Holmes are decent rotation players; Rice Jr, Smith, and Tokoto are not NBA players; Micic, Dangubic, Hernangomez, Gudaitis and Mitrovic are unknowns; Pierre Jackson could still emerge as a rotation guy in the league. So that's 3/12 rotation guys, 5/12 are foreigners we haven't seen yet and only 1/12 is a clear non-player. 2nd round picks usually don't work out but more than half of Hinkie's twelve 2nd round picks still have a shot at being rotation players. My gut reaction is that's a pretty good record.
In terms of the Sixers franchise, in three drafts Hinkie gave the Sixers one bonafide starter (Okafor), one potential star (Embiid), two decent rotation guys (Grant, Holmes), one foreign unknown (Micic). I would suggest that being able to trade away 10 players for something is (probably) pretty good, a lot of players drafted into the NBA will never return any value for the team that drafted them. (I'll return to Hinkie's trades in a later post)
I'm willing to call this a successful run--and if Embiid becomes a star then it becomes an unimpeachable success. It has yet to look promising because the team has returned so few W's but the GM's job stretches into the future, laying the groundwork for future teams is also among his duties. By gutting the Sixer roster that he inherited and redeeming as many draft picks as possible, Hinkie raised the value of the Sixers' potential returns. The disappointing part of Hinkie's record here is that he has mostly redeemed those future draft picks for future-r draft picks, which is fine for the GM but doesn't really benefit anyone else in the organization (at this point, not even Hinkie!). Hinkie wanted to build around the draft and I'd say he did an above average job. Still time to see how it plays out on the court.
The Sam Hinkie Dossier (part 2)
Another method for a GM to accumulate players is through waivers. If a GM's job is to find underrated players that other teams are missing out on, well, that what's the waiver wire is. So did Hinkie sneak overlooked talent away from the rest of the league?
Hinkie made 5 waiver claims: 2014 (Chris Johnson), 2015 (Thomas Robinson, Glen Robinson Jr, Ish Smith), 2016 (Sonny Weems). All 5 were released. All 5 are still in the NBA (though Weems is rumored to be on his way to Israel) and Smith last year even returned to the Sixers (though only after Bryan Colangelo was brought in as an 'adviser').
I think Ish Smith can be a solid backup PG for a good team in the NBA but I don't see him as the Sixers' PG of the future and apparently Hinkie never did either. Hinkie let Ish leave after the 2014-15 season, only to trade two 2nd round picks to bring him back after it was clear Tony Wroten wasn't going to work out. If we acknowledge that Ish is underappreciated and was a nice pickup for the Sixers, then we'd also have to acknowledge that Hinkie didn't keep him even though he was very affordable, choosing to rely on Wroten instead. Or we could go conspiracy theory Hinkie here: Ish was too good for the Sixers and Hinkie wanted one more shot at the #1 pick. I dunno, which version do you prefer? Was Hinkie an idiot for letting Ish go or was he a mad genius for letting him go? In the end, he got both: Ish came back and the Sixers still got the #1 pick.
I personally still believe Thomas Robinson can be a decent low price contributor but Hinkie let him go too. But Johnson, Robinson Jr and Weems are just practice players, bottom of the roster guys who will snag minutes in garbage time or in case of injuries but aren't meaningful contributors for any team.
Hinkie didn't show any great proficiency at the waiver wire portion of the GM position or at least he doesn't have any great successes to trumpet. Now this isn't a terribly damning of his performance, the sheer amount of talent available on the NBA waiver wire isn't going to be enormous and, off the top of my head, I can't recall any brilliant waiver wire moves over the last few years. But there are, one hopes, diamonds in the rough out there and the waiver wire is the place to find them. I like that he took a chance on Ish Smith and on Thomas Robinson and while Smith played pretty good for the Sixers, you can't say that Hinkie got the better of his peers in this area. Not much of a minus but not a real plus either.
Hinkie made 5 waiver claims: 2014 (Chris Johnson), 2015 (Thomas Robinson, Glen Robinson Jr, Ish Smith), 2016 (Sonny Weems). All 5 were released. All 5 are still in the NBA (though Weems is rumored to be on his way to Israel) and Smith last year even returned to the Sixers (though only after Bryan Colangelo was brought in as an 'adviser').
I think Ish Smith can be a solid backup PG for a good team in the NBA but I don't see him as the Sixers' PG of the future and apparently Hinkie never did either. Hinkie let Ish leave after the 2014-15 season, only to trade two 2nd round picks to bring him back after it was clear Tony Wroten wasn't going to work out. If we acknowledge that Ish is underappreciated and was a nice pickup for the Sixers, then we'd also have to acknowledge that Hinkie didn't keep him even though he was very affordable, choosing to rely on Wroten instead. Or we could go conspiracy theory Hinkie here: Ish was too good for the Sixers and Hinkie wanted one more shot at the #1 pick. I dunno, which version do you prefer? Was Hinkie an idiot for letting Ish go or was he a mad genius for letting him go? In the end, he got both: Ish came back and the Sixers still got the #1 pick.
I personally still believe Thomas Robinson can be a decent low price contributor but Hinkie let him go too. But Johnson, Robinson Jr and Weems are just practice players, bottom of the roster guys who will snag minutes in garbage time or in case of injuries but aren't meaningful contributors for any team.
Hinkie didn't show any great proficiency at the waiver wire portion of the GM position or at least he doesn't have any great successes to trumpet. Now this isn't a terribly damning of his performance, the sheer amount of talent available on the NBA waiver wire isn't going to be enormous and, off the top of my head, I can't recall any brilliant waiver wire moves over the last few years. But there are, one hopes, diamonds in the rough out there and the waiver wire is the place to find them. I like that he took a chance on Ish Smith and on Thomas Robinson and while Smith played pretty good for the Sixers, you can't say that Hinkie got the better of his peers in this area. Not much of a minus but not a real plus either.
The Sam Hinkie Dossier (part 3)
Another method for accumulating players is through free agency. As Sixers GM Sam Hinkie signed 26 free agents: Adonis Thomas, Brandon Davies, Casper Ware, Christian Wood, Daniel Orton, Darius Johnson-Odom, Dwayne Dedmon, Drew Gordon, Eliot Williams, Elton Brand, Gani Lawal, JaKarr Sampson, James Anderson, James Nunnaly, Jarvis Varnado, Jordan Railey, Larry Drew, Lorenzo Brown, Malcolm Lee, Nayal Koshwal, Phil Pressey, Pierre Jackson, Ronald Roberts, Solomon Alabi, Tim Frazier, Tim Ohlbrecht.
Only 2 (Brand, Wood) were still on the roster at the end of the 2015-16 season. (I can see Brand coming back for another year as 'veteran presence'. Given how many bigs the Sixers have, Wood seems like someone else's Summer League fodder)
9 others finished 2015-16 on NBA rosters (Williams, Anderson, Dedmon, Davies, Sampson*, Frazier, Brown, Pressey). (Dedmon, Brown, and Sampson seem likely to stick in the league for at least a little while, not sure about the rest)
I think 5 others (Ware, Gordon, Johnson-Odom, Lawal, Varnado) are playing in Europe. (Hey, good for them!)
Near as I can tell 8 (Thomas, Orton, Nunnaly, Railey, Lee, Roberts, Alabi, Olbrecht) are completely out of basketball. I have no idea whatever happened to Larry Drew or Nayal Koshwal but I'm certain they're no longer in the NBA.
I think Pierre Jackson has signed on to the Knicks Summer League squad, so the former D League stand out looks to get at least one more shot at some NBA time.
So out of the 26 signings, none came anywhere near an All-Star Game. Only 7 (Anderson, Brand, Davies, Williams, Wood, Sampson, Pressey) played noteworthy minutes for the Sixers. And I would suggest only 1 (Brand) might be back in the post-Hinkie era. Not a lot of good cards in that hand, absolutely nothing for Hinkie to hang his hat on. He certainly did not produce wins on the court and didn't leave much behind for future development. In his defense (though this is a pretty sorry defense): Hinkie wasn't trying to win games in his three years in Philly. I'm sure he would've been more than happy to sign great young players but given his desire for draft picks and to save money, these three years were not a time of pulling out all the stops to sign big names. He signed under-the-radar players on the cheap hoping they would develop. I can't say any of them did.
I would suggest that this, more than anything, is why Brian Colangelo was brought in to replace Hinkie: if you can't recruit big time free agents, your ceiling for NBA success will probably always remain low. That said, I would suggest that Summer 2016 was always the time that Hinkie was aiming toward in terms of making major moves, whether signings or trades, but was robbed of the chance to be there when the time came.
His free agency record is not strong but it wasn't meant to be, was it? He wasn't concerned with winning or spending money, so though this crop of signings isn't superlative, circumstances prevented him from putting his best foot forward. We can heap the blame on Hinkie, though I'd rather acknowledge that this strategy was well known to his bosses and benefactors...and they hired him anyway. Hinkie was doing what he said he was going to do. While I can't give him any high marks, I don't feel like I can admonish his record too much either.
* (Funny JaKarr Sampson story: Remember the Rockets-Pistons trade that was to send Motiejunas and Marcus Thornton to Detroit for a #1 pick that got voided? That was actually a 3-team deal in which Philly was to get a salary dump for a draft pick (Joel Anthony if I'm not mistaken). In order for the deal to work Philly had to release Sampson, apparently with the understanding that after Anthony was also released, the Sixers would bring Sampson back. Instead, the Pistons backed out of the trade and Sampson signed a multi-year deal with the Nuggets. Oh well.)
Only 2 (Brand, Wood) were still on the roster at the end of the 2015-16 season. (I can see Brand coming back for another year as 'veteran presence'. Given how many bigs the Sixers have, Wood seems like someone else's Summer League fodder)
9 others finished 2015-16 on NBA rosters (Williams, Anderson, Dedmon, Davies, Sampson*, Frazier, Brown, Pressey). (Dedmon, Brown, and Sampson seem likely to stick in the league for at least a little while, not sure about the rest)
I think 5 others (Ware, Gordon, Johnson-Odom, Lawal, Varnado) are playing in Europe. (Hey, good for them!)
Near as I can tell 8 (Thomas, Orton, Nunnaly, Railey, Lee, Roberts, Alabi, Olbrecht) are completely out of basketball. I have no idea whatever happened to Larry Drew or Nayal Koshwal but I'm certain they're no longer in the NBA.
I think Pierre Jackson has signed on to the Knicks Summer League squad, so the former D League stand out looks to get at least one more shot at some NBA time.
So out of the 26 signings, none came anywhere near an All-Star Game. Only 7 (Anderson, Brand, Davies, Williams, Wood, Sampson, Pressey) played noteworthy minutes for the Sixers. And I would suggest only 1 (Brand) might be back in the post-Hinkie era. Not a lot of good cards in that hand, absolutely nothing for Hinkie to hang his hat on. He certainly did not produce wins on the court and didn't leave much behind for future development. In his defense (though this is a pretty sorry defense): Hinkie wasn't trying to win games in his three years in Philly. I'm sure he would've been more than happy to sign great young players but given his desire for draft picks and to save money, these three years were not a time of pulling out all the stops to sign big names. He signed under-the-radar players on the cheap hoping they would develop. I can't say any of them did.
I would suggest that this, more than anything, is why Brian Colangelo was brought in to replace Hinkie: if you can't recruit big time free agents, your ceiling for NBA success will probably always remain low. That said, I would suggest that Summer 2016 was always the time that Hinkie was aiming toward in terms of making major moves, whether signings or trades, but was robbed of the chance to be there when the time came.
His free agency record is not strong but it wasn't meant to be, was it? He wasn't concerned with winning or spending money, so though this crop of signings isn't superlative, circumstances prevented him from putting his best foot forward. We can heap the blame on Hinkie, though I'd rather acknowledge that this strategy was well known to his bosses and benefactors...and they hired him anyway. Hinkie was doing what he said he was going to do. While I can't give him any high marks, I don't feel like I can admonish his record too much either.
* (Funny JaKarr Sampson story: Remember the Rockets-Pistons trade that was to send Motiejunas and Marcus Thornton to Detroit for a #1 pick that got voided? That was actually a 3-team deal in which Philly was to get a salary dump for a draft pick (Joel Anthony if I'm not mistaken). In order for the deal to work Philly had to release Sampson, apparently with the understanding that after Anthony was also released, the Sixers would bring Sampson back. Instead, the Pistons backed out of the trade and Sampson signed a multi-year deal with the Nuggets. Oh well.)
The Sam Hinkie Dossier (part 4)
The fourth way a GM fills out his roster is through trades. Hinkie was a fairly active trader and though he spent most of his time trying to give away salary or accumulate salary from other teams, that doesn't preclude him from bringing in talent whether for the present or the future. So how good were Hinkie's trades?
I looked over the 24* trades in the Hinkie era and broke them down as positive. negative or negligible. I tried to judge them in the context of when the trade was made, as opposed to the long term outcome of the trade. I wanted to try to get a sense of what Hinkie was thinking at the time rather than judging them from a future vantage point. Did Hinkie make good moves? Did he get fleeced or did he do the fleecing?
To my eye there was only one trade that I listed as negative: On Feb 24, 2014, the Sixers traded Evan Turner and Levoy Allen to the Pacers for Danny Granger and a 2nd rd pick. Danny Granger was once a really good player in this league but he never quite recovered from his injuries in the previous years (and was usurped by Paul George in his absence), so the Sixers weren't picking up a guy that could play, there were just taking on salary because they could. Frankly this alone is worth more than a 2nd rd pick but the fact that Hinkie also included Turner (still a promising young player at the time) and Allen (a solid rotation guy) is just giving talent away. We can surmise that Hinkie had no interest in retaining Allen or Turner past their then-current deals, that's fine, but I think he could've gotten more than a dead contract and a 2nd rd pick. (Wacky twist: I think Evan Turner is one of the free agents the Sixers ought to pursue this summer; can't imagine he'd want to go back but I think the way he's played in Boston is the model for Ben Simmons' game: small forward who's a reliable ball handler and good passer that can shoot a little and drive just enough to be dangerous. I think Simmons can be better than that but I do think that's basically what he is and pairing him with Turner could make magic for both of them)
Another notable trade that may be considered a bust in the future but at the time seemed like a reasonable risk to me was trading Michael Carter-Williams (the reigning ROY at the time) for the top-3 protected 2016 Lakers 1st rd pick on Feb 19, 2015. The Lakers were able to retain the pick but I think Hinkie had already decided that MCW was not his PG of the future and gambling that the Lakers would have too much pride to completely bottom out in order to save a draft pick was worth it. The Lakers surely won't be that bad next year but aren't gonna challenge the Warriors new record single season win total, either, so the Sixers are guaranteed a decent 1st rounder for 2017. Not bad. MCW is a nice ball handler, terrific athlete but, man, that kid is allergic to scoring points; there's a place for him in the NBA but he needs to be surrounded by a collection of scorers and Hinkie probably saw that Philly was a ways away from being the kind of team that MCW needs to be on. Not a bad trade for anyone involved.
Just to be nitpicky, I can't help thinking that Hinkie could've gotten more for Spencer Hawes, another veteran Hinkie inherited that he got rid of as fast as he could. On Feb 20, 2014, Hinkie traded Hawes to the Cavs for Earl Clark, Henry Sims and two 2nd rd draft picks. Sims actually did play some minutes for the Sixers and Hinkie does love his 2nd rd pick collection, but there were no future stars in that deal and Hawes must've been attractive to more teams than just Cleveland. Not a terrible deal, I just feel like he might've done better.
On the positive side, I think trading Jrue Holiday for Nerlens Noel and a future 1st rounder (Elfrid Payton, to be exact) was a bold move and a good one right out of the gate for Hinkie. And his last major trade, which brought the Sixers Nik Stauskus, Carl Landry, a 1st rd pick (a Sacramento Kings 1st rd pick!) and the right to future pick swaps for...basically nothing (a 2nd rd pick and the rights to two foreign players), forms a solid bookend to Hinkie's wheeler-dealer phase as Sixers GM.
In between the two bookend trades Hinkie basically made three types of moves. He took cheap flyers on young players (Tony Wroten, Byron Mullins, Furkan Aldemir, Royce White, Jordan McRae) with minimal results. He accumulated a ton of draft picks (Six 1st rd picks and eleven 2nd rd picks, by my count)--nothing wrong with that and he's set up the Sixers with many extra picks over the next few years. And salary dumps from other teams (Granger, Keith Bogans, Marquis Teague, Hasheem Thabeet, Gerald Wallace, JaVale McGee, Andrei Kirilenko, Ronny Turiaf (though I truly think they expected Kirilenko and McGee to play)), so while other GMs complained about the Sixers tanking games, the Sixers served a community purpose in the form of absorbing a ton of crappy contracts around the league. Other teams may complain but when they needed some dirty work done they didn't hesitate to call on Sam Hinkie.
In the end, I think Hinkie made way more good trades than bad ones and has set the Sixers up to be active in trade and draft markets for years to come. I gotta give Sam Hinkie a big thumbs up on this side of his GM duties.
(* Technically there were 25 that I could find. But two of them--the first two trades Hinkie made actually--were basically bound up together and could just as easily be seen as a single 4-way trade, which is how I think the teams themselves would've viewed the deal at the time. I suppose there is technically some distance between the moves but I think all the various moving parts were in conjunction.)
I looked over the 24* trades in the Hinkie era and broke them down as positive. negative or negligible. I tried to judge them in the context of when the trade was made, as opposed to the long term outcome of the trade. I wanted to try to get a sense of what Hinkie was thinking at the time rather than judging them from a future vantage point. Did Hinkie make good moves? Did he get fleeced or did he do the fleecing?
To my eye there was only one trade that I listed as negative: On Feb 24, 2014, the Sixers traded Evan Turner and Levoy Allen to the Pacers for Danny Granger and a 2nd rd pick. Danny Granger was once a really good player in this league but he never quite recovered from his injuries in the previous years (and was usurped by Paul George in his absence), so the Sixers weren't picking up a guy that could play, there were just taking on salary because they could. Frankly this alone is worth more than a 2nd rd pick but the fact that Hinkie also included Turner (still a promising young player at the time) and Allen (a solid rotation guy) is just giving talent away. We can surmise that Hinkie had no interest in retaining Allen or Turner past their then-current deals, that's fine, but I think he could've gotten more than a dead contract and a 2nd rd pick. (Wacky twist: I think Evan Turner is one of the free agents the Sixers ought to pursue this summer; can't imagine he'd want to go back but I think the way he's played in Boston is the model for Ben Simmons' game: small forward who's a reliable ball handler and good passer that can shoot a little and drive just enough to be dangerous. I think Simmons can be better than that but I do think that's basically what he is and pairing him with Turner could make magic for both of them)
Another notable trade that may be considered a bust in the future but at the time seemed like a reasonable risk to me was trading Michael Carter-Williams (the reigning ROY at the time) for the top-3 protected 2016 Lakers 1st rd pick on Feb 19, 2015. The Lakers were able to retain the pick but I think Hinkie had already decided that MCW was not his PG of the future and gambling that the Lakers would have too much pride to completely bottom out in order to save a draft pick was worth it. The Lakers surely won't be that bad next year but aren't gonna challenge the Warriors new record single season win total, either, so the Sixers are guaranteed a decent 1st rounder for 2017. Not bad. MCW is a nice ball handler, terrific athlete but, man, that kid is allergic to scoring points; there's a place for him in the NBA but he needs to be surrounded by a collection of scorers and Hinkie probably saw that Philly was a ways away from being the kind of team that MCW needs to be on. Not a bad trade for anyone involved.
Just to be nitpicky, I can't help thinking that Hinkie could've gotten more for Spencer Hawes, another veteran Hinkie inherited that he got rid of as fast as he could. On Feb 20, 2014, Hinkie traded Hawes to the Cavs for Earl Clark, Henry Sims and two 2nd rd draft picks. Sims actually did play some minutes for the Sixers and Hinkie does love his 2nd rd pick collection, but there were no future stars in that deal and Hawes must've been attractive to more teams than just Cleveland. Not a terrible deal, I just feel like he might've done better.
On the positive side, I think trading Jrue Holiday for Nerlens Noel and a future 1st rounder (Elfrid Payton, to be exact) was a bold move and a good one right out of the gate for Hinkie. And his last major trade, which brought the Sixers Nik Stauskus, Carl Landry, a 1st rd pick (a Sacramento Kings 1st rd pick!) and the right to future pick swaps for...basically nothing (a 2nd rd pick and the rights to two foreign players), forms a solid bookend to Hinkie's wheeler-dealer phase as Sixers GM.
In between the two bookend trades Hinkie basically made three types of moves. He took cheap flyers on young players (Tony Wroten, Byron Mullins, Furkan Aldemir, Royce White, Jordan McRae) with minimal results. He accumulated a ton of draft picks (Six 1st rd picks and eleven 2nd rd picks, by my count)--nothing wrong with that and he's set up the Sixers with many extra picks over the next few years. And salary dumps from other teams (Granger, Keith Bogans, Marquis Teague, Hasheem Thabeet, Gerald Wallace, JaVale McGee, Andrei Kirilenko, Ronny Turiaf (though I truly think they expected Kirilenko and McGee to play)), so while other GMs complained about the Sixers tanking games, the Sixers served a community purpose in the form of absorbing a ton of crappy contracts around the league. Other teams may complain but when they needed some dirty work done they didn't hesitate to call on Sam Hinkie.
In the end, I think Hinkie made way more good trades than bad ones and has set the Sixers up to be active in trade and draft markets for years to come. I gotta give Sam Hinkie a big thumbs up on this side of his GM duties.
(* Technically there were 25 that I could find. But two of them--the first two trades Hinkie made actually--were basically bound up together and could just as easily be seen as a single 4-way trade, which is how I think the teams themselves would've viewed the deal at the time. I suppose there is technically some distance between the moves but I think all the various moving parts were in conjunction.)
The Sam Hinkie Dossier (conclusion)
In the four areas of talent acquisition, I gave Hinkie pretty good grades: Draft (A-), Waiver (B-), Free Agency (C-), Trades (A-). Considering that free agency was something he was saving for Summer 2016, I'm giving him a pass on his one bad grade. Looking back on it, I think Hinkie did a really good job: he suffered through three terrible years but he effectively created a new culture, left a handful of promising players in place and a ton of draft picks to continue to find talent. No, he did not win games but during his time in Philly that was never his mandate.
As for the 'process', it is still very much in place. As I've said before, this summer was always the time for making a splash: the Sixers have a ton of money, draft picks, and some young talent waiting in the wings. Throw big money at Mike Conley and Nic Batum and they're rolling into next year with Conley, Simmons, Batum, Okafor, Nerlens with Covington, Stauskus, Saric, Embiid, #24 and #26 in this year's draft off the bench and plenty of future picks to barter for more talent and, of course, there's still plenty of money for some veteran role players (think Nene, Mo Harkless, Ty Lawson, maybe even Jamal Crawford or Aron Aflalo). That's still a young team that will struggle but at least they'll be trying to win games and giving the fans something to cheer for and if things break right, that squad would be in the hunt for a playoff spot in the East. That team would be on the up whereas for the last three years Philly has been decidedly on the down. This is all part of the process....that Hinkie will no longer be a part of.
Or they could blow it up one more time: how about Okafor to the Celtics for #3 and Nerlens to the Suns for #4 and Tyson Chandler. That would give them Tyson Chandler anchoring an all-rookie team: PG Kris Dunn, SG Jamal Murray, SF Ben Simmons, PF Joel Embiid, C Chandler with F Dario Saric off the bench. Again, that team would scuffle for a year or two but when they did come together, it could be serious hot sauce, especially in the East.
The Sixers actually have a ton of options right now and virtually anything they choose to do will be a move in the right direction. I dunno. What would Hinkie do?
As for the 'process', it is still very much in place. As I've said before, this summer was always the time for making a splash: the Sixers have a ton of money, draft picks, and some young talent waiting in the wings. Throw big money at Mike Conley and Nic Batum and they're rolling into next year with Conley, Simmons, Batum, Okafor, Nerlens with Covington, Stauskus, Saric, Embiid, #24 and #26 in this year's draft off the bench and plenty of future picks to barter for more talent and, of course, there's still plenty of money for some veteran role players (think Nene, Mo Harkless, Ty Lawson, maybe even Jamal Crawford or Aron Aflalo). That's still a young team that will struggle but at least they'll be trying to win games and giving the fans something to cheer for and if things break right, that squad would be in the hunt for a playoff spot in the East. That team would be on the up whereas for the last three years Philly has been decidedly on the down. This is all part of the process....that Hinkie will no longer be a part of.
Or they could blow it up one more time: how about Okafor to the Celtics for #3 and Nerlens to the Suns for #4 and Tyson Chandler. That would give them Tyson Chandler anchoring an all-rookie team: PG Kris Dunn, SG Jamal Murray, SF Ben Simmons, PF Joel Embiid, C Chandler with F Dario Saric off the bench. Again, that team would scuffle for a year or two but when they did come together, it could be serious hot sauce, especially in the East.
The Sixers actually have a ton of options right now and virtually anything they choose to do will be a move in the right direction. I dunno. What would Hinkie do?
Thursday, June 16, 2016
Phoenix Suns Observations
Two years ago the Suns came out of nowhere to challenge for a playoff spot in the West though they were predicted to be an easy lottery candidate in the pre-season. Then they let Channing Frye walk, signed Isiah Thomas for no apparent reason, panic-traded Goran Dragic and Isiah Thomas, pissed off the Morris twins, signed Tyson Chandler to big money and left Jeff Hornacek holding the bag. They turned a promising season into a shit storm and if there was any justice in this world, that entire front office would be treated like Stalin's enemies of the state. Last season they fired Hornacek's entire staff, then a month later fired Hornacek himself....with no one left to take over. *smh* The Suns were so close to being interesting, if not good, and they've since done absolutely everything wrong. And with the emergence of Devin Booker, the front office will undoubtedly turn a bright spot into a storm cloud.
The starting five as of now looks something like PG Bledsoe, SG Booker, SF Tucker, PF Warren, C Chandler with Knight, Goodwin, Len off the bench. I assume that either Bledsoe or Knight will get moved this summer (hell, maybe both?) which will bring back some kind of depth. Getting out from under Tyson Chandler's massively expensive contract (why did them sign him?) would be a godsend but I don't see that happening. I don't dislike that starting five (personally I think Bledsoe could still be the next big star in the league and Booker seems well on his way too) but its hard to see them making the playoffs or doing anything at all if they got there.
The Suns hold #4,#13,#28,#34 in the upcoming draft. Given that they have a nice but not great rotation right now, one suspects that rather than packaging those picks for something, they'll look to bring in four new recruits. I'm rooting for Jamal Murray at #4 and Tyler Ulis at #34, just to deepen the Kentucky vibe in the back court. #13 might fetch them the guy that I think is the most hit/miss in the whole draft: Brice Johnson, who might be the second coming of PJ Brown (not at all a bad thing) or he might be out of the league in 2 years. If Johnson's there at #13, I think the Suns ought to give him a shot. #28 could bring UNLV's Stephen Zimmerman, the intriguing Thon Maker or perhaps the rumored-to-be-injured Denzel Valentine falls to them there. Either way I think they've got a shot at bringing in four intriguing, if not really good, players.
Or they could package Branden Knight, Tyson Chandler, #4 and #34 for Demarcus Cousins. Or how about getting in a 3-way that brings Kevin Love to Phoenix, Carmelo to Cleveland and a raft of picks to NYK? (Pointless trade idea: Tyson Chandler and #4 for Nerlens Noel: Philly loves draft picks, has money to spend and could use some veteran presence; Phoenix needs to get rid of Chandler and Nerlens played for John Calipari like the rest of the Suns roster. Just a thought) They've definitely got pieces to move or they might just stand pat with their four picks. Depends on whether they think there's a win-now kinda deal out there for them or if they want to just let things marinate with new coach Earl Watson.
Who knows what the Suns are thinking? It wasn't that long ago that they had a lineup of Dragic, Bledsoe, the Morris twins and Len with a legit Coach of the Year candidate. They screwed up all that was good about that situation, so I have no idea what they'll do from here. They have the potential for any number of blockbuster deals or they could stand pat with their 4 draft picks and too many PGs. Right now, I think the Suns are nowhere near #8 in the West but deals are out there that could make them a lot better this summer. We'll see.
The starting five as of now looks something like PG Bledsoe, SG Booker, SF Tucker, PF Warren, C Chandler with Knight, Goodwin, Len off the bench. I assume that either Bledsoe or Knight will get moved this summer (hell, maybe both?) which will bring back some kind of depth. Getting out from under Tyson Chandler's massively expensive contract (why did them sign him?) would be a godsend but I don't see that happening. I don't dislike that starting five (personally I think Bledsoe could still be the next big star in the league and Booker seems well on his way too) but its hard to see them making the playoffs or doing anything at all if they got there.
The Suns hold #4,#13,#28,#34 in the upcoming draft. Given that they have a nice but not great rotation right now, one suspects that rather than packaging those picks for something, they'll look to bring in four new recruits. I'm rooting for Jamal Murray at #4 and Tyler Ulis at #34, just to deepen the Kentucky vibe in the back court. #13 might fetch them the guy that I think is the most hit/miss in the whole draft: Brice Johnson, who might be the second coming of PJ Brown (not at all a bad thing) or he might be out of the league in 2 years. If Johnson's there at #13, I think the Suns ought to give him a shot. #28 could bring UNLV's Stephen Zimmerman, the intriguing Thon Maker or perhaps the rumored-to-be-injured Denzel Valentine falls to them there. Either way I think they've got a shot at bringing in four intriguing, if not really good, players.
Or they could package Branden Knight, Tyson Chandler, #4 and #34 for Demarcus Cousins. Or how about getting in a 3-way that brings Kevin Love to Phoenix, Carmelo to Cleveland and a raft of picks to NYK? (Pointless trade idea: Tyson Chandler and #4 for Nerlens Noel: Philly loves draft picks, has money to spend and could use some veteran presence; Phoenix needs to get rid of Chandler and Nerlens played for John Calipari like the rest of the Suns roster. Just a thought) They've definitely got pieces to move or they might just stand pat with their four picks. Depends on whether they think there's a win-now kinda deal out there for them or if they want to just let things marinate with new coach Earl Watson.
Who knows what the Suns are thinking? It wasn't that long ago that they had a lineup of Dragic, Bledsoe, the Morris twins and Len with a legit Coach of the Year candidate. They screwed up all that was good about that situation, so I have no idea what they'll do from here. They have the potential for any number of blockbuster deals or they could stand pat with their 4 draft picks and too many PGs. Right now, I think the Suns are nowhere near #8 in the West but deals are out there that could make them a lot better this summer. We'll see.
The Finals So Far
Tonight is Game Six in Cleveland, Warriors up 3-2, Draymond back from suspension, Bogut out for the rest of the Series. I think the Warriors wrap it up tonight.
Klay has been magnificent throughout the post-season but except for a 25 point performance in Game Four, he's been pretty ordinary (which is to say, way below Klay's ordinary) against the Cavs. Is he just tired from a long season (two long seasons with an appearance for Team USA in there)? Could be. Shooters rely on their legs and his legs must be pretty worn down by now. He's such a phenomenal shooter, just flings the ball toward the basket and expects it to go in. He built his rep on defense, which has been fine but nothing superlative this series. Klay torched the Rockets, carried the Warriors against the Blazers, was legendary against the Thunder, where has his game gone? I think he shows up big tonight, I expect old timey Klay, bombing 3's and running the floor like a champ.
Curry has also been pretty so-so so far in this series. In Game Three the Cavs stumbled onto the strategy of working on the defensive side (I thought it akin to running right at a scary defensive end rather than running away from him), but when the refs swallowed their whistles in the 2nd half of Game Four (and have yet to un-swallow them), that strategy kinda dried up and the Cavs were stuck watching Curry drop bombs on them. Rumors are that nagging injuries (shoulder, knee, thigh) are starting to catch up to Curry and that's probably true. He only needs one more win, though, to get his vacation started. Without Draymond in the last game, the Warriors' defense sagged in the middle and the Cavs were able to get hot, which means Curry has to work more than usual and with less profit. Tonight they'll be without Bogut but that's an absence they can weather a little better (expect to see Ezeli shooting lot of FT's tonight), as long as Draymond's back to plug the lane and get the transition going. Curry needs to hit shots like his old self, if he falters the Cavs will hang around. I think he will hit tonight. I think the Curry-Klay-Draymon trio comes up big back in Cleveland.
Draymond, for my money, was the team's MVP this season: his work on both ends makes the effortless awesomeness of Curry and Klay possible. Without Draymond those two have to work harder on defense and harder to get good shots, they're still good but their ceilings are quite a bit lower. The trouble with Draymond is that his fiery temper is one technical away from getting him run out of this series. In Game Four, when all was lost, Lebron hit the emergency switch (which I think he truly wanted to avoid and realized he couldn't) and got under Draymond's skin resulting in a suspension for Game Five. The Cavs will be coming at Draymon hard tonight--HARD--and he better keep it together. Without Bogut, Draymond will be expected to do even more than usual (especially in the first few minutes of each half) and if he falters the Cavs will pounce. But I think Draymond holds it together, indeed, I think he'll be at his absolute best tonight, leaving the pundits to argue over who was the MVP of this series.
Bogut has been his usual solid self, thought he was particularly effective in Game Two. He twisted his knee in the last game and has been ruled out for the Series. He doesn't play a lot of minutes any more but he still plays good D and is a steadying force. He will be missed though his absence isn't catastrophic for this team. Ezeli isn't as steady, isn't any better as an FT shooter and is more likely to foul out. Draymond and Iguodala will have to do more tonight.
Iguodala has been good but not great. The conundrum of the Warriors series is that really no one has been great so far. They've all been pretty good which has been good enough for three wins out of five but someone will have to be a big dog to get one more win. It might be Iguodala. I think he should mark Kyrie tonight. Let Lebron do his thing and put the clamp on Kyrie, make Love or Jefferson or Smith make big plays. If Iguodala shuts down Kyrie, I think the Warriors win easily. And if Iguodala scores effectively tonight that might be the same thing.
Livingston was just untouchable in Games One and Two and though he's slipped back down to earth somewhat, he's been really good in this Series and really important to the Warriors' chances of winning. The key to tonight's game is Klay and Curry regaining their form and going for big points, but Livingston has a part to play in keeping the Cavs off balance and keeping the scoring going. If Livingston effectively attacks the lane, Klay and Curry will get better shots and the Cav defenders become more foul prone.
Barbosa played great minutes in Golden State but back in Cleveland its up to Varejao to get the important minutes off the bench. Varejao was always a pretty good player (the poor man's Joakim Noah), it was his spotty health (and ridiculously huge contract) that has held him back in recent years. But he only needs ten good minutes tonight to make a big difference. Keeping Love off the boards, getting an extra foul on Tristan, stifling Kyrie once or twice, making a coupla good passes, if he can do those things a few times in this game, it'll have a big impact. Also look for McAdoo to get some important minutes.
Lebron has been great, as usual. That said, I thought he let Game Four get away from him: he attacked the basket well but he was always looking to pass rather than finish and the Cavs did a great job of getting the Warriors in foul trouble in the 1st half (there were a few plays were Klay was afraid to play defense) and then abandoned that aggressiveness in the 2nd half. Weird game. And when it was spiraling out of control, Lebron had to take his opportunity to get in Draymond's head. I don't think he wanted to do it but the chance to get Draymond ruled out for a game or two was too great to pass up, so he let Draymond's typical taunts wind him up when he would normally just ignore them and goaded Draymond into making a mistake. Worth noting that that option is still in the table in tonight's game: one more tech and Draymond is suspended again. I think he'll attack Curry and Draymond as much as possible. And while he'd like to be his playmaking self, I think he needs to score 30 at least tonight. And I reckon he will.
Kyrie was bananas in Game Five, very Klay-like from beginning to end. He knows he can do that so I think he'll try to do it again. Double edge sword: the upside is Klay-like setting records with his efficiency, downside is Westbrook-like overplaying, overdribbling, overshooting and forgetting his teammates. Will we get Klay Kyrie tonight or Russell Kyrie? I'm voting for the latter. I think he gets hot early but shoots himself out and tries too hard, forcing Lebron to pick up the slack. Once that happens, the Warriors go into lights-out mode and finish the game comfortably in the 4th quarter. We'll see.
Love has been much maligned in this series and while he deserves some of that blame, he doesn't deserve as much as he's getting. The consensus is that he's lowering his own value but this is a hot take culture: if he goes for 20 tonight, everyone'll think he's the Series MVP. Love has been generally ineffective on both sides but he hasn't been awful. He's slow on defensive switches and not a great perimeter defender but he's gonna have opportunities to make plays and knock down shots. If he does those things, the Cavs will hang around to the end; if he doesn't, he'll be putting his house up for sale by the end of the week. (Honestly, I say either way, he won't be back next year; he's not a good fit, he never was--in fact, don't you think the Cavs could really use Andrew Wiggins in this series?)
Tristan Thompson has played well this series, showing better footwork and perimeter D than I would've thought possible. His FT% is deathly but he's solid around the rim and I expect him to make plays against Ezeli tonight. The Cavs need everything they can get, Tristan's rebounds and D will be impactful. He'll have to punish Draymond and help Love whenever possible.
JR Smith is a puzzle: he can go from brilliant to non-existent and back as fast as any player I can think of. In Game One he played 37 minutes and had 3 FGA. 3! Dude, what is out there for except scoring? If he's only gonna get 3 shots in 37 minutes then either something is seriously wrong with the gameplan or he's having a monumentally bad night. He was good in Game Three but otherwise hasn't given the Cavs much this series. I expect Lebron to look for Smith early tonight, if he gets going he can be the difference in keeping the series alive. Otherwise, he needs to D up Klay like his life depends on it.
Richard Jefferson has been a surprise in this series, he's a really nifty scorer around the rim. Unfortunately in Game Five he became turnover prone whereas before he was quite sure handed with the ball. He needs to keep his nerve tonight and score points off the bench, because I don't think Lebron + Kyrie will be enough tonight. If he makes buckets, the Cavs will hang around.
Dellavedova was a hero in last year's finals, playing waaaaaay over his shoes and was a top quality agitator for most of that series. This year, with Kyrie back, Delly has mostly disappeared (his agitator role was usurped by Varejao to the tune of Delly getting called for a foul that he was in fact the victim of), but I wouldn't be surprised to see him get a few important minutes off the bench tonight. The attack on Curry and Draymond needs to come from anyone and everyone and Delly can be quite annoying out there, and that'll be his job. He may not score any points but he's got 6 fouls to give and I expect to see him giving them.
A coupla weeks ago I heard David Thorpe on a podcast talk some serious shit about Iman Shumpert's game. I gotta admit ever since then I've watched Shumpert with a different eye. Thorpe's right, dude, Shumpert kinda sucks. He can't even dribble with confidence. His defensive effort is solid but his footwork isn't great and he's not much of a rebounder and offensively he can't be relied on for anything. Seriously, man, watch him. He's pretty terrible. I guess he'll get his shot against Klay but if he's getting torched, expect him to shift over to Ezeli-hacking.
I'm not sure when Mozgov disappeared from the Cavs philosophy but I can't help thinking he's better than they think. He's so far out of the rotation now that I doubt he'll play big minutes ever again but he can agitate and pester, he might get some minutes tonight to hack on Ezeli or frustrate Draymond. And Mo Williams...I forgot about that guy.
I expect the Cavs to return to the strategy of wearing out Curry on defense, to go hard at Draymond early and often and to foul Ezeli as much as possible.
I expect the Warriors to stifle Kyrie, get masterful bench minutes and make buckets.
If both of my expectations bear out, I think the Warriors' scoring will be too much. The Warriors were money night after night this season and though they've been quite a bit less sharp in the playoffs, they're still quite capable of putting up big big numbers. Bogut's out and Draymond might have to tone down his game a touch, but I think the scorers will score and the Series ends tonight.
Klay has been magnificent throughout the post-season but except for a 25 point performance in Game Four, he's been pretty ordinary (which is to say, way below Klay's ordinary) against the Cavs. Is he just tired from a long season (two long seasons with an appearance for Team USA in there)? Could be. Shooters rely on their legs and his legs must be pretty worn down by now. He's such a phenomenal shooter, just flings the ball toward the basket and expects it to go in. He built his rep on defense, which has been fine but nothing superlative this series. Klay torched the Rockets, carried the Warriors against the Blazers, was legendary against the Thunder, where has his game gone? I think he shows up big tonight, I expect old timey Klay, bombing 3's and running the floor like a champ.
Curry has also been pretty so-so so far in this series. In Game Three the Cavs stumbled onto the strategy of working on the defensive side (I thought it akin to running right at a scary defensive end rather than running away from him), but when the refs swallowed their whistles in the 2nd half of Game Four (and have yet to un-swallow them), that strategy kinda dried up and the Cavs were stuck watching Curry drop bombs on them. Rumors are that nagging injuries (shoulder, knee, thigh) are starting to catch up to Curry and that's probably true. He only needs one more win, though, to get his vacation started. Without Draymond in the last game, the Warriors' defense sagged in the middle and the Cavs were able to get hot, which means Curry has to work more than usual and with less profit. Tonight they'll be without Bogut but that's an absence they can weather a little better (expect to see Ezeli shooting lot of FT's tonight), as long as Draymond's back to plug the lane and get the transition going. Curry needs to hit shots like his old self, if he falters the Cavs will hang around. I think he will hit tonight. I think the Curry-Klay-Draymon trio comes up big back in Cleveland.
Draymond, for my money, was the team's MVP this season: his work on both ends makes the effortless awesomeness of Curry and Klay possible. Without Draymond those two have to work harder on defense and harder to get good shots, they're still good but their ceilings are quite a bit lower. The trouble with Draymond is that his fiery temper is one technical away from getting him run out of this series. In Game Four, when all was lost, Lebron hit the emergency switch (which I think he truly wanted to avoid and realized he couldn't) and got under Draymond's skin resulting in a suspension for Game Five. The Cavs will be coming at Draymon hard tonight--HARD--and he better keep it together. Without Bogut, Draymond will be expected to do even more than usual (especially in the first few minutes of each half) and if he falters the Cavs will pounce. But I think Draymond holds it together, indeed, I think he'll be at his absolute best tonight, leaving the pundits to argue over who was the MVP of this series.
Bogut has been his usual solid self, thought he was particularly effective in Game Two. He twisted his knee in the last game and has been ruled out for the Series. He doesn't play a lot of minutes any more but he still plays good D and is a steadying force. He will be missed though his absence isn't catastrophic for this team. Ezeli isn't as steady, isn't any better as an FT shooter and is more likely to foul out. Draymond and Iguodala will have to do more tonight.
Iguodala has been good but not great. The conundrum of the Warriors series is that really no one has been great so far. They've all been pretty good which has been good enough for three wins out of five but someone will have to be a big dog to get one more win. It might be Iguodala. I think he should mark Kyrie tonight. Let Lebron do his thing and put the clamp on Kyrie, make Love or Jefferson or Smith make big plays. If Iguodala shuts down Kyrie, I think the Warriors win easily. And if Iguodala scores effectively tonight that might be the same thing.
Livingston was just untouchable in Games One and Two and though he's slipped back down to earth somewhat, he's been really good in this Series and really important to the Warriors' chances of winning. The key to tonight's game is Klay and Curry regaining their form and going for big points, but Livingston has a part to play in keeping the Cavs off balance and keeping the scoring going. If Livingston effectively attacks the lane, Klay and Curry will get better shots and the Cav defenders become more foul prone.
Barbosa played great minutes in Golden State but back in Cleveland its up to Varejao to get the important minutes off the bench. Varejao was always a pretty good player (the poor man's Joakim Noah), it was his spotty health (and ridiculously huge contract) that has held him back in recent years. But he only needs ten good minutes tonight to make a big difference. Keeping Love off the boards, getting an extra foul on Tristan, stifling Kyrie once or twice, making a coupla good passes, if he can do those things a few times in this game, it'll have a big impact. Also look for McAdoo to get some important minutes.
Lebron has been great, as usual. That said, I thought he let Game Four get away from him: he attacked the basket well but he was always looking to pass rather than finish and the Cavs did a great job of getting the Warriors in foul trouble in the 1st half (there were a few plays were Klay was afraid to play defense) and then abandoned that aggressiveness in the 2nd half. Weird game. And when it was spiraling out of control, Lebron had to take his opportunity to get in Draymond's head. I don't think he wanted to do it but the chance to get Draymond ruled out for a game or two was too great to pass up, so he let Draymond's typical taunts wind him up when he would normally just ignore them and goaded Draymond into making a mistake. Worth noting that that option is still in the table in tonight's game: one more tech and Draymond is suspended again. I think he'll attack Curry and Draymond as much as possible. And while he'd like to be his playmaking self, I think he needs to score 30 at least tonight. And I reckon he will.
Kyrie was bananas in Game Five, very Klay-like from beginning to end. He knows he can do that so I think he'll try to do it again. Double edge sword: the upside is Klay-like setting records with his efficiency, downside is Westbrook-like overplaying, overdribbling, overshooting and forgetting his teammates. Will we get Klay Kyrie tonight or Russell Kyrie? I'm voting for the latter. I think he gets hot early but shoots himself out and tries too hard, forcing Lebron to pick up the slack. Once that happens, the Warriors go into lights-out mode and finish the game comfortably in the 4th quarter. We'll see.
Love has been much maligned in this series and while he deserves some of that blame, he doesn't deserve as much as he's getting. The consensus is that he's lowering his own value but this is a hot take culture: if he goes for 20 tonight, everyone'll think he's the Series MVP. Love has been generally ineffective on both sides but he hasn't been awful. He's slow on defensive switches and not a great perimeter defender but he's gonna have opportunities to make plays and knock down shots. If he does those things, the Cavs will hang around to the end; if he doesn't, he'll be putting his house up for sale by the end of the week. (Honestly, I say either way, he won't be back next year; he's not a good fit, he never was--in fact, don't you think the Cavs could really use Andrew Wiggins in this series?)
Tristan Thompson has played well this series, showing better footwork and perimeter D than I would've thought possible. His FT% is deathly but he's solid around the rim and I expect him to make plays against Ezeli tonight. The Cavs need everything they can get, Tristan's rebounds and D will be impactful. He'll have to punish Draymond and help Love whenever possible.
JR Smith is a puzzle: he can go from brilliant to non-existent and back as fast as any player I can think of. In Game One he played 37 minutes and had 3 FGA. 3! Dude, what is out there for except scoring? If he's only gonna get 3 shots in 37 minutes then either something is seriously wrong with the gameplan or he's having a monumentally bad night. He was good in Game Three but otherwise hasn't given the Cavs much this series. I expect Lebron to look for Smith early tonight, if he gets going he can be the difference in keeping the series alive. Otherwise, he needs to D up Klay like his life depends on it.
Richard Jefferson has been a surprise in this series, he's a really nifty scorer around the rim. Unfortunately in Game Five he became turnover prone whereas before he was quite sure handed with the ball. He needs to keep his nerve tonight and score points off the bench, because I don't think Lebron + Kyrie will be enough tonight. If he makes buckets, the Cavs will hang around.
Dellavedova was a hero in last year's finals, playing waaaaaay over his shoes and was a top quality agitator for most of that series. This year, with Kyrie back, Delly has mostly disappeared (his agitator role was usurped by Varejao to the tune of Delly getting called for a foul that he was in fact the victim of), but I wouldn't be surprised to see him get a few important minutes off the bench tonight. The attack on Curry and Draymond needs to come from anyone and everyone and Delly can be quite annoying out there, and that'll be his job. He may not score any points but he's got 6 fouls to give and I expect to see him giving them.
A coupla weeks ago I heard David Thorpe on a podcast talk some serious shit about Iman Shumpert's game. I gotta admit ever since then I've watched Shumpert with a different eye. Thorpe's right, dude, Shumpert kinda sucks. He can't even dribble with confidence. His defensive effort is solid but his footwork isn't great and he's not much of a rebounder and offensively he can't be relied on for anything. Seriously, man, watch him. He's pretty terrible. I guess he'll get his shot against Klay but if he's getting torched, expect him to shift over to Ezeli-hacking.
I'm not sure when Mozgov disappeared from the Cavs philosophy but I can't help thinking he's better than they think. He's so far out of the rotation now that I doubt he'll play big minutes ever again but he can agitate and pester, he might get some minutes tonight to hack on Ezeli or frustrate Draymond. And Mo Williams...I forgot about that guy.
I expect the Cavs to return to the strategy of wearing out Curry on defense, to go hard at Draymond early and often and to foul Ezeli as much as possible.
I expect the Warriors to stifle Kyrie, get masterful bench minutes and make buckets.
If both of my expectations bear out, I think the Warriors' scoring will be too much. The Warriors were money night after night this season and though they've been quite a bit less sharp in the playoffs, they're still quite capable of putting up big big numbers. Bogut's out and Draymond might have to tone down his game a touch, but I think the scorers will score and the Series ends tonight.
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