2024-25 NBA Final (Preview)

Not much to preview, really. The Thunder have been the best team in the NBA all season long, the Pacers were the 3rd best team in the East and had a strong run through the playoffs, a worthy representative of the Eastern Conference (but no one thinks they're gonna beat OKC). 

The sport media wanted the Knicks to be here instead of the Pacers but, well, the Knicks were overrated and lucky all the way through (I'm sorry, but it's true: the Knicks weren't that fucking good this year!). The Knicks pushed around the Pistons, who just weren't ready to finish games (though I thought the were the better team in all 6 games), and they were lucky enough to watch the Celtics self-destruct (go back and watch the games, dude, the Celtics should've won in 4). Then the Pacers had too much offense for the Knicks to keep up. 

As for the Pacers, they caught the Bucks with injuries (as is the usual for the Bucks) and though the Cavs were arguably the only regular season team to even come close to the Thunder, the Cavs just weren't ready to take the next step (and the Pacers were). The Pacers started slow this season but after the all-star break, they were pretty awesome and their run through the East was well deserved, they were the most complete ready-to-compete team in the Conference.  

The Thunder murdered everyone all year long, then they mauled the Grizzlies (they even tried to even away Game Three and just couldn't manage to lose), then faced their toughest opponent in the Nuggets, who took them to Game Seven, and then pushed aside the Wolves rather easily. So, just to recap: all non-Jokic teams got thoroughly (if casually) destroyed by OKC. 

Right off the bat: I'm going Thunder in 5. I just think they're too good, but they'll probably fall asleep long enough for the Pacers to steal one. 

Game One could be the test. If OKC stomps the Pacers, well, that's probably what this series will be. 

If the Pacers steal a W in OKC, then we've definitely got a Series. 

But if the Pacers compete, keep it close, make OKC sweat, that actually might be the best outcome. 

I'd suggest that the best possible series is something like when the Nuggets beat the Lakers on their way to the championship a few years back: the Nuggets swept the Lakers, but all four games were tight and riveting. A roller coaster of a sweep is probably the most interesting outcome. Why? Well, for the Pacers to win the series, I think something would have to go disastrously wrong for OKC and I don't want to see anyone go out like that. I think the Pacers are good enough to make the Thunder work, but I don't think they're good enough to win four of the next seven games against them. 

So four really tight, compelling, nailbiting games that OKC has to go to their limits to win....that could happen. I think both of these squads are offensively good enough to keep games close, but I think OKC's defense will make a few extra plays that the Pacers won't be able to match. That said, I can totally see a game where neither team plays any defense, a 135-129 kinda game, which could go either way. 

For the Pacers to win, they need to jump out to big leads early on and then hold on to them. Unfortunately, this is not typically how they've been winning in the playoffs so far. Their best wins have been sneaky hanging-around kinda games where they get hot late and steal W's in the 4th. I don't think that's gonna work against the Thunder, who never stop scoring and never stop playing defense. The Pacers need to dominate the 1st quarter to hang with the Thunder. 

The Pacers have a decent chance to steal Game One. If they can surprise the Thunder right away (as the Nuggets did), perhaps they can make a series of this. I'm not trying to say the Pacers can't win, not at all. I was a fan of their run to the final four last year and I was kinda shocked that the started so slow this season, thinking that they would hit the ground running and be a real contender for the #1 seed in the East. They started surprisingly slow, but once they got going, they've been really good for several months now, the Pacers are not a fluke. But I think the West is so much better than the East and the Thunder has performed better against better opponents all year long, I just don't see how that stops now. We'll see.

2024-25 NBA Playoffs (2nd round after 4 games)

East

Cavs 126-104 Pacers

Cavs 109-129 Pacers

After limping through the first 2 games, the Cavs finally showed up for Game Three and convincingly thumped the Pacers on their own home floor. Then for Game Four, the Cavs didn't show up at all--the score is not indicative of the level of blow out, actually the Cavs balled out in the 4th quarter just to get it to a 20-point loss. The Pacers have surged to a dominant 3-1 lead in the series, they are in command. Donovan Mitchell left the game after halftime but I believe he'll be back for Game Five but even still the Cavs just look bewildered out there. Darius Garland is playing but doesn't look fully healthy and though the rest of the Cavs are ready to play, they have yet to look like they even want to be here. I'm not shocked the Pacers are hanging with the Cavs but I am shocked at how out of it the Cavs look so far. Still a chance they pull it together and come all the way back, but I seriously doubt it. I kinda like the Pacers to win Game Five--and I'd definitely take them to win Game Six back in Indy. 

Celtics 115-93 Knicks 

Celtics 113-121 Knicks

The Celtics have been playing a dangerous game letting the first two games get away from them--even though they were clearly obviously undoubtedly the better team! They finally played all the way to the end in Game Three and took it easily. Then disaster struck: in Game Four Jaysun Tatum (who had been balling out) fell over awkwardly, rolled around in pain and was carted off in a wheelchair; haven't seen the reports yet but the way he went down looked like the worst nightmare: torn Achilles (we'll see).  Game Four was a more even contest but the Knicks were much better after halftime and went on a tear in the 4th quarter to seal it. The Knicks are up 3-1 in the 2nd round and this is the first game where they actually looked like the superior team this playoffs (yeah, I said it before and I still believe: the Pistons were better than the Knicks in all 6 games of the 1st round and somehow managed to lose four of them). The Celtics without Tatum are not gonna be able to win three straight on the Knicks--especially considering they already outplayed the Knicks in three straight games and gave away two of them! Jaylin Brown and Kristaps Porzingis have not been good this post-season, so unless those two really come to play, then the Celtics will not be moving on. 

So pretty much all season long, I thought the Celtics and the Cavs would be dueling in the Eastern Conference Finals but it does not look like that's gonna happen. Looking like a rematch of last year's Knick-Pacer quarterfinal, a series I rather enjoyed. 

West

Thunder 104-113 (OT) Nuggets

Thunder 92-87 Nuggets

I actually missed Game Three of this series, an overtime thriller that seemed by most all accounts to be an instant classic. I did, however, catch Game Four which was a sludgy slog of a game where everyone looked beat before the game even started and no one was able to rise above the non-stop defense. The series is even now but I still think the Thunder are the better team, the deeper team, and I think their defensive game plan has finally caught up to Nikola Jokic. Aaron Gordon is playing his ass off, Christian Braun is all hustle and Jamal Murray has moments, but the Nuggets haven't got much out of Michael Porter Jr (he's obviously hurt) and the minutes they're getting from Russell Westbrook are the epitome of two-steps-forward-one-step-back. The Thunder aren't exactly dominating, Jokic is still a human speed bump, but I do think they're the better team and this series is toughening them up before our eyes. My one concern: it feels like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is looking to pass a little more than he should, he's deferring when I think he needs to be looking to score more, but maybe I'm just seeing things. Jaylin Williams is having a nice--not great--series, Chet Holgren is hustling but not dominating, the supporting cast is holding on but not excelling and yet I think the Thunder are good and getting better and when they finally get away from Jokic, I think they might blow up. I still like the Thunder to win the series, wouldn't be surprised if they took the next two games.

Wolves 102-97 Warriors

Wolves 117-110 Warriors

I think the Wolves are better than the Warriors anyway, but once you remove Steph Curry from the Warrior lineup, it's really not even much of a contest any more. Jimmy Butler is trying, but his one-man-wrecking-crew game isn't as effective in the West as it was in the East and Draymond Green's antics are looking more and more desperate (remember when Dirk Diggler was all coked out of his mind and his life fell apart in the last half of Boogie Nights? Yeah, something like that except this is less fun to watch). Anthony Edwards is casually brilliant, Rudy Gobert looks like a real stopper in the middle again, Julius Randle is playing his way to a big free agent signing this summer and the rest of that cast is pitching in nicely. I think this will be over in 5, then the Wolves get to relax as OKC and Denver keep slugging. 

2024-25 NBA Playoffs (2nd round after 2 games)

East

Pacers 121-112 Cavs

Pacers 120-119 Cavs

The Cavs are in trouble! The Pacers flat out controlled Game One and then made crazy plays down the stretch to steal Game Two. If the Cavs are going to be without Darius Garland, Evan Mobley and/or Deandre Hunter then this series is probably already a wrap. I thought the Pacers would give the Cavs a good run, they're a pretty similar team actually and though I thought the Cavs are better and that they would prevail, these key injuries might be too much to overcome. If the Cavs could've held on Game Two, then I still would've favored them--even with the injuries--but dropping two home games AND a pile of injuries....I gotta go Pacers from here. Indeed, this might be quick.

Knicks 108-105 (OT) Celtics

Knicks 91-90 Celtics

The Celtics on the other hand....man, if they just get average shooting from here on out, I still think they're better than the Knicks and should still win 4 of the next 5 games, You wanna say the Knicks rose up and made big plays but....nah, not really, the Celtics are just getting out of their offense for whatever reason and if they stay in this funk, they're toast. In Game One, after halftime, the Celtics just started chucking 3'd instead of plodding into a proper offensive set; if you're hitting, that's fine, you're gonna win by 30--but if not, you're gonna lose. And then they did it again in Game Two! No idea what the Celtics are doing, but they still have more talent and a better game plan, when they stick to it. This series is up in the air, but I still gotta go with the Celtics in 7.

West

Nuggets 121-119 Thunder

Nuggets 106-149 Thunder

The Thunder have not played a lot of close games this season, they've been clubbing people all year long and haven't really had to dig down and finish games. They should've won Game One, but the Nuggets stayed true, worked hard, got lucky and stole it. Game Two, on the other hand, the Thunder did not mess around. But entering the 4th quarter with a 41-point lead and Jokic fouled out, even I was like, okay, you can take the foot off the gas now. The Thunder are better, deeper and the Nuggets are just overmatched. But they still have Jokic, so the Thunder better buckle down. I think they will. I'll still take the Thunder in 5.

Warriors 99-88 Wolves

Warriors 93-117 Wolves

In Game One, I thought the Wolves Jedi mind-tricked themselves. The Warriors junked up the game and instead of taking control of the game, the Wolves acted as if the sludge fest was somehow to their advantage. It was not. I think they've learned their lesson (we'll see), and since Steph Cutty has suffered a hamstring injury, the Wolves should be the huge fave now. Jimmy Butler can take over but this really isn't team (yet), so I don't see Butler being enough to get past the Wolves. If the Wolves play the game, stick with their tenacious D and shoot reasonably well, they are the better team and should advance. The Warriors will hang, but I like the Wolves in 7.

2025 Champions League (semifinals)

Arsenal 0-1 Paris St-Germain

Paris St-Germain 2-1 Arsenal

Arsenal was on fire earlier in this tournament, but PSG cooled them off right quick. In two games, Arsenal's attack was non-existent, only a single late goal on their tally sheet. PSG was the better team on both sides, controlled the ball, controlled the tempo and rather easily won both of these matches. Good games but PSG was the clear better team in both matches. 

Barcelona 3-3 Inter Milan

Inter Milan 4-3 (ET) Barcelona

Whoa! I spent a week telling my soccer-phobic friends that if they were only going to watch one soccer match this year, it should be that first match between Barca and Inter. Now I've got to implore them to watch TWO games this year because that second match was even better! Inter opened the scoring in the 1st leg with a masterful opening rush that started with them getting pushed back to their own goal line, then punting to midfield, connecting on a quick pass, a swift push up the wing, which led to one of the loveliest (cheeky!) backheel goals I've ever seen. So, the first minute of the game pretty much got you ready for a barn burner. The next 219 minutes were pretty good, too! Coming in I thought Barca was the best team in the tournament, but Inter has really impressed me. Inter's attack is strong, their defense is holding up and they ran past the best team, so they are a deserving finalist. 

Final

PSG - Inter Milan

Gonna be a good one. PSG has the star power but Inter just keeps getting it done against top flight competition, so I'm going with Inter.

2024-25 NBA Playoffs (1st round after 4 games)

East

Cavs 124-87 Heat

Cavs 138-83 Heat

Oof! The Cavs are just good, man, the Heat had no chance. I kinda like the Heat's personnel but without a full time playmaker, they've got no straw stirring the drink, so the reasonably talented roster gets no service and can't get anything going. This whole series was a shellacking, a reminder that #1 in the East is waaaaaay better than the play-in teams. The Cavs are relaxing before the Pacers come a-callin'.

Celtics 93-95 Magic 

Celtics 107-98 Magic

The Magic don't have enough scoring to hang in general and without Mo Wagner and Jalen Suggs they don't have the depth on defense either. The Celtics do occasionally fall asleep (the great Roger Federer in his prime used to do that, he won a hell of a lot more than he lost), but the Magic are probably not gonna get another chance to take advantage of that quirk. The Magic can look forward to the fact that their youth is still getting better rather than just older, playoff experience builds calluses. The Celtics are warming up for Knicks, I reckon. 

Knicks 118-116 Pistons 

Knicks 94-93 Pistons

Yeah, I still don't buy the Knicks, but clearly with a 3-1 lead, it's hard to imagine they lose three straight. The Pistons, to my mind, bungled away Games One and Three and fell prey to a late KAT attack (a coupla big 3's down the stretch), but I still think they're the better team. Though he has hardly been consistent, Cade Cunningham has balled out, it is clear that this is his team and I think he's been the best player in this series. I still find the Knicks remarkably underwhelming but I can't see them blowing a 3-1 lead, though I can see the Pistons making them work for it, so there's still some fireworks ahead.

Pacers 101-117 Bucks 

Pacers 129-103 Bucks 

The Bucks had one balls-to-the-wall half (2nd half of Game Three) in them to steal a W, but once Dame went down (Achilles' *sigh*) in Game Four that was the end of any lingering day dream of the Bucks rising up. Yeesh, looking ahead: well, Dame's out for next year, they moved on from Middleton and now they're stuck with Kuzma, probably time for Brook Lopez to retire and what do they have left? Oh my, the cupboard is pretty dang bare. (I'm already dreading the forced Giannis trade talk the chatterers will be forcing on us this summer) The Pacers are the one team in the East that can (maybe) hang with the Cavs and Celtics, so just as well that they're moving on sooner rather than later. I presume they will finish in 5.

West

Thunder 114-108 Grizzlies 

Thunder 117-115 Grizzlies

Ah, man, Ja Morant was still trying to act like the Grizz could've won if only.... dude, it has been a long year, spend a coupla weeks in Cabo, then get back to it and get ready for next year, this year is over and it's just as well, Grizz fans. The Thunder are still killing people, making them play in the 1st round was probably just a waste of time.

Rockets 93-104 Warriors 

Rockets 106-109 Warriors

I'm getting old, but in a backwards way? I prefer youth to the way it used to be. I'm ready for the Rockets to make some noise, instead I'm stuck here pretending like the Warriors still have something in the tank....honestly, it makes my head hurt. Draymond, Steph and Jimmy are expending 110% effort just to fend off a bunch of punks that have never done anything in this league and frankly they're still just getting lucky. They think their old timey savvy is gonna carry them and that shit might work on the Rockets but I don't see it working on anyone else. The Rockets haven't yet shown the maturity to finish off their elders (they keep falling for Draymond's head games) and their offense dries up from time to time, but the Rockets were better than the Warriors all season long and will be better than them next season, too. But for now the oldheads are still bullshitting their way through life and, sorry Rockets, it'll be another year before you get invited to the real party. (That said, I like the Rockets to win Game Five and wouldn't be shocked if they won Game Six--the longer this series goes on, the more miles those old legs have to run, the faster they'll crash out when they reach their limit)

Lakers 104-116 Wolves 

Lakers 113-116 Wolves 

The Wolves managed to take the 3-1 lead by reminding everyone that the Lakers are really just a nice team for now (and their "now" probably would've been better with Anthony Davis), but plan on being a for-real team next year. The Wolves have got no time to lose, so they're balling out as best they can. I think the Wolves are better and with a 3-1 lead I think we can pencil them through to the next round, but I said Lakers in 7 for a reason: they're wily vets and they know how to....get by. Hard to imagine the Wolves don't finish them off soon but now that we've reached the edge, feels like its time to start worrying about the Lakers again. Meh, I'll take Wolves in 5.

Nuggets 83-117 Clippers

Nuggets 101-99 Clippers 

I still believe the Clippers are the better team, they have the better offense, the better defense, the better coach and the better depth. But the Nuggets have a great home court and the greatest player in the world, so its still a series when maybe it should already be over. Okay, I'll stick with the same ol' thing: the Clippers are the better team and at their best Harden and Kawhi make a strangely effective 2-headed monster; that said, their 2-heads aren't exactly crunch time heroes and Jokic is still the best in the world. For now, still the most fun left in this series, but I still gotta lean Clippers in 6.

2024-25 NBA Regular Season Awards

MVP

Last year I developed a new algorithm for ranking NBA performances. I ended up with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder) as MVP and that felt right to me, so I thought I'd run back the method this year, too. Well, not so good. 

My first calculation ended up with Shai winning again this year. Okay, not controversial. But this year the method put Nikola Jokic (Nuggets) 3rd behind James Harden (Clippers). I did not see this coming, it kinda freaked me out as Harden is a player I have barely paid attention to this season (though, to be fair, I didn't watch nearly as much NBA as I usually do). 

So I did a second calculation and now Shai had slipped to 2nd place...behind Anthony Edwards (Wolves)! So in a year when the debate was between Shai (Stefan Edberg-level elegance and awesomness leading his batch of youngsters to easily the best record in the league) or Jokic (dragging his band of sad sacks into the playoffs like Homer Simpson with his Stone of Shame), but even though the Clippers finished strong, I never thought twice about Harden or Edwards for MVP. But what are the algorithms for except to to find the best players? Last year the algorithm told me that Shai, Jokic and Giannis were the three best players and I heartily agreed. This year, the algorithms spit out something I did not expect or understand and it made me question the science (heaven forbid!). 

So I did what all good scientists do: I kept changing the criteria until I got what I wanted:

MVP: Nikola Jokic (Nuggets)

The rest of my top five: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder), Giannis Antetokounpo (Bucks), Lebron James (Lakers), Jaysun Tatum (Celtics). (Okay, well, Lebron kinda came out of nowhere but he is still a hell of a player) 

On my own I probably would've taken Shai over Jokic, because I think Shai has been exciting, thorough and completely in charge from day one on a team that just murdered people all year long. For the last several years I thought Jokic and Giannis were the two best players in the league, I think it is safe to say that SGA has joined them. I was never so committed to any of the others that the snoots wanted to put with Jokic and Giannis (Embiid, for example, was never better than top 3--if that!--IMHO), but with Shai we have a master PG, just blossoming into his prime, that gets W's in addition to buckets; meanwhile we see the steady erosion of the supporting casts around Jokic and Giannis.  

But the numbers made it clear to me that Jokic has virtually no help whereas SGA has a great roster--arguably the top-to-bottom best in the league. But another stat really dumbfounded me: Jokic led the league with 34 triple-doubles in 70 games, just about half of his games played were triple-doubles, while SGA had zero. Now, okay, SGA has better teammates, there's more passing and scoring going on than just SGA, so it makes sense that he wouldn't get a lot of triple-doubles because he just doesn't need to the way Jokic needs to carry his team; but....damn, man, SGA didn't have one? In 76 games he didn't have one triple-double! On one of the greatest scoring teams of all time and a great defensive team, he didn't have one single game where he hit double digits in three different stats? His teammate Jaylin Williams, had 3 triple-doubles, but SGA had none? Somehow this only seems possible if he were on a team that absolutely did not need their best player to ever go truly above himself in any single game--while Jokic had to do that in almost half of his games. I dunno, man, something about the fact that SGA had fewer triple-doubles this season than Bilal Coulibaly (Wizards) or Jalen Pickett (Nuggets), automatically makes me feel good about putting Jokic ahead of him.  

But let's remember: according to my method of analysis James Harden, Lebron James and Anthony Edwards are clear candidates for 1st Team All-NBA, if not for MVP. Good players, but the numbers put them higher than my own personal eyeballs did, which makes me reconsider the importance of numbers. Oh well. (Science is lumpier than Science itself realizes)  

All-NBA

1st

Nikola Jokic (Nuggets), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder), Giannis Antetokounpo (Bucks), Lebron James (Lakers), Jaysun Tatum (Celtics)

2nd

Cade Cunningham (Pistons), James Harden (Clippers), Tyrese Halliburton (Pacers), Anthony Edwards (Wolves), Alperen Sengun (Rockets)

3rd

Karl-Anthony Towns (Knicks), Tyler Herro (Heat), Ivica Zubac (Clippers), Devin Booker (Suns), Donovan Mitchell (Cavs)

All-Rookie

1st

Stephon Castle (Spurs), Bub Carrington (Wizards), Alex Sarr (Wizards), Zacharrie Risacher (Hawks), Jaylen Wells (Grizzlies)

2nd 

Yves Missi (Pelicans), Isaih Collier (Jazz), Kyshawn George (Wizards), Kyle Filipowski (Jazz), Matas Buzelis (Bulls)

Looks good to me. Castle is nice, a good strong supporting cast member for the Wemby Show. Carrington, Sarr are in the right spot: Bub has game and is fun to watch, Sarr is a nice all-around big man, both in a spot where expectations are low, so they're free to just play. I like Risacher, doesn't look like a super star but he's kinda good at everything, should get better at a lot of stuff, might could be a for-real #2 for a for-real star (is that Trae Young? Could it be, say, Zion?). Wells is a baller, get well soon. Missi is a good rim protecting rebounder, a nice player. Collier, Georgie and Filipowski should have earned more playing time, we'll see what they become. I kinda love Buzelis, that guy'll start next year.   

And a few other rooks I liked: Dalton Knecht (Lakers), Zach Edey (Grizzlies), Ke'lel Ware (Heat), Donovan Clingan (Blazers), and I'm still convinced Reed Sheppard (Rockets) will be good, if he's ever allowed to play, and Ron Holland (Pistons) was one of my favorites to watch all year long. 

That said, for ROY, I'm going off the board:

Rookie of the Year: Jared McCain (Sixers)

ROY for me is a forward-looking award (who is the best looking prospect going forward) not a backward-looking award (who had the BEST rookie season). McCain only played 23 games but in his limited look, he struck me as the highest potential growth player going forward. He was in control of the ball and had major league-level athletic prowess; in short, he has the physical tools to survive and the talent to be really good. I can't/won't make the argument he had the best rookie season, obviously he didn't, but who cares? Which rookie do I want next year? I'd take McCain. 

Defensive Player of the Year

Yeah, this happens every year: I use basic counting metrics for my end of year awards and clearly in DPOY, these metrics are too basic to be useful. Its going to drive the nerds crazy but--and not for the first time--I'll go with Nikola Jokic (Nuggets) for Defensive Player of the Year. 

Next up: Amen Thompson (Rockets), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder)

As a life long baseball lover, I've long known that defensive stats just don't paint the proper picture. Offense is a clear accounting, but defense (re: the counter of offense) is much more elusive to capture, more useful as a team stat rather than an individual, and the great defenders are doing more than the statistics can calculate. But I'm still dubious of more complicated metrics, I know I'm supposed to sit in awe of number nerds but numbers in and of themselves aren't meaningful at all; if you start giving too much narrative necessity to numbers then you're just fooling yourself. 

Okay, so I suck at DPOY.  I had James Harden (Clippers) 4th!

6th Man: Naz Reid (Wolves)

My incredibly unscientific 1st draft left me with: Naz Reid (Wolves) as the strong 1st place. Peyton Pritchard (Celtics), Malik Beasley (Pistons) next, with Spencer Dinwiddie (Mavs) and Keldon Johnson (Spurs) rounding out the top 5. (*) Basically no matter how you slice it, Reid, Pritchard and Beasley were the top three in pretty much every stat, so pick your favorite. I think there are good arguments for all three and no argument that really means more than any other. All three were strong 2nd string contributors to good teams, all three had their role within their squad. So I'll go with Reid, just because nobody else is.

Most Improved

I've never done this one in the past because it seems rather than just picking one, there should be multiple winners based on draft class or even by age. I hadn't thought to even do this (I normally don't), but I thought as I peruse the end of year stats, some candidates might emerge. But I should say: I don't feel like going back to last year's stats so the ones that stand out to me will simply be dudes that surprised me with their performance, whether outsized or idiosyncratic, rather than who actually showed some statistical improvement.  We'll see.

James Harden (Clippers). Yup, he was waaaaaay better than I was expecting because I wasn't expecting much. But they were better than I thought they'd be and looking kinda dangerous going into the post-season and Harden's old timey efficiency is the main reason. A damn good season for Harden.

Tyler Herro (Heat). Basically my algorithm susses out the dudes that played a lot and actually did stuff while they played. And Herro played a lot and did a lot for his team. And though the Heat were frustrating this year (as they usually are), that doesn't hide the fact that Herro was pretty damn good this year. He scored efficiently, made plays for others, played good D and just generally handled himself well out there. I always liked Herro but I think he's become even better than I thought he'd be and I'm kinda curious to see what a full year of that current lineup could look like (they could be hitting an unusual number of "up" years from their roster, we'll see next year).

Jalen Williams (Thunder). Williams was awesome last year, surely a Most Improved candidate in 2024. But he successfully stepped up his game for an entire season and even though we knew he was good last year, to stay at that level for another entire year is fucking impressive. To be the reliable 2nd banana on the best team in the league is frankly even better than what he suggested in the past.

Amen Thompson (Rockets). Defensive monster! I knew he'd be good, but just watching him actually bust out is so much better than our collective imagination. I hate to be that guy: oh my, he is a disaster on offense! Already one of the greatest defenders I've ever seen--he's Gary Payton and Kevin Garnett put together!--and though he's got pretty good skills with the ball, he has no instinct for scoring, for attacking the basket or for maximizing his teammates, no feel for the offensive side of the ball. In the game of chess, he is demolition derby. Still, though, that defense...the kid is a monster.  

Christian Braun (Nuggets). Top 20 in the league in Minutes Played and of the 143 players (that I consider) eligible for awards, Braun was 6th in Effective Field Goal Percentage. Now, I'll admit I have no idea what that metric is or how it works, but it does suggest (hopefully) that he was "effective" at scoring when asked. He plays more than I thought he would and he's clearly not a disappointment and, well, that's actually kinda better than I thought he'd be. Obviously playing next to Jokic might make anyone look like a Hall of Famer, but I suspect if you suck at basketball, Jokic will make that known with a quickness, so I believe in Braun.

Some names that I passed over: Tyrese Halliburton (Pacers), Ivica Zubac (Clippers), Alperen Sengun (Rockets) busted out last year for me, so I'm not surprised by their success, those dudes are fucking good. Similarly with Cade Cunningham (Pistons), I never lost faith with his past injuries or his crappy teams and coaches, I knew Cade was gonna be good the whole time, not surprised that he's top 15.

Coach of the Year

Coach: Ime Udoka (Rockets)

Next up: Rick Atkinson (Cavs), Mark Daigneault (Thunder), Joe Mazzulo (Celtics)

The Cavs and Celtics were easily the two best teams in the East. The Thunder and Rockets were clearly the two best teams in the West, so those are your top four candidates. The arguments are basically: Mazzulo had to hold last year's excellence in place, Daigneault had to improve on last year's excellence, Atkinson had to whip a good team into a really good team, Udoka had to take a bunch of youngsters and keep them locked in all year. All four have their merits, I just decided Udoka's task was greater than the rest. 

JB Bickerstaff (Pistons) and JJ Reddick (Lakers), I suppose will get some votes, too. But really those top four ought to be everyone's top four. 

Executive of the Year

Obviously the Lakers bringing in Luka Doncic from the Mavs for about half of what he's worth is the best trade anyone has pulled off in eons. But that's a future trade, as for now getting an injured Luka for an all-star level Anthony Davis, does not make the Lakers immediately better. I have no doubt that Luka will be good and the team will figure out how best to serve him but that probably won't result in a deep playoff this season (next season, watch out!). 

My favorite trade of the season was the Spurs getting De'Aaron Fox for a raft of 1st round picks (which aren't really necessary now that they can pair Fox with Wemby for the next several years) and their two worst contracts (Tre Jones and Zach Collins). But, that, too, is a trade for the future, as they put Wemby and Fox out to pasture for the season almost as soon as this trade went down. Again, not so much for this season--but next season, watch out! 

The Warriors bringing in Jimmy Butler revitalized their squad, but they gave up on Dennis Schroder (yeah, I have an irrational soft spot for the guy), Lindy Waters (yeah, a bench warmer, but is that his total worth?), Kyle Anderson (a handy vet to have come playoff time) and Andrew Wiggins (again, I have an irrational soft spot) and, I think, a 1st round pick and swapped 2nd round picks. Yeah, I get that Butler makes them better right now, but the "now" just keeps getting shorter for the Warriors and if this doesn't lead to deep playoff runs over the next 2-3 years then this roster is completely wrecked. I dunno, man, I'm not as big a fan of this deal or of the new-look Warriors as I feel like everybody else is. I think this is a high leverage move that leaves them with no draft capital, a bloated salary cap and super stars that will be long-since maxxed out before their deals mature. We'll see how deep they go this year...do we think this squad will go deeper next year? (Hint: I don't)

The Knicks turned their roster upside down since last year's playoff run to the 2nd round and all the moves seemed good on paper. But in reality, I can't help thinking that they were better off with Randle and DiVincenzo than Towns, they wildly overpaid for Mikael Bridges and Coach Thibs is (and always was!) the wrong coach for this team. In short, I'm just not as into this Knicks team as I feel like I'm supposed to be and I don't see great playoff success awaiting this team. So can I say their GM had a good year?

The Nuggets and Bucks just keep falling down around their central super stars. The Kings are on a treadmill of mediocrity, the Hawks and Bulls don't seem to get better no matter what they do. The Suns were arguably the dumpster fire of the year. The Jazz, Hornets and Wizards have settled into being allergic to success. The Pacers and Magic were both able to be pretty much the same as last year (with pretty much last year's rosters). The Rockets are almost choking to death on all their young talent (will Cam Whitmore or Reed Sheppard ever get to play?). Grizzlies have been a slow motion train wreck for a coupla seasons now. The Nets and Raptors were actually better than they wanted to be (as dubious achievement as there is in all of sports). The Wolves made big moves last summer that had to metabolize.So what front office had the best season? 

I'll go with Executive of the Year: Trent Redden (Clippers)

Since last May, they re-upped Tyronn Lue, a great move, as his feel the in game adjustments is as good as I think I've ever seen, truly in the top handful of coaches in the NBA, good to lock him down.  They low-balled Paul George, forcing him out of town--a great move! They signed Derrick Jones Jr (3yr/$30m), Nicolas Batum (2yr/$9.6m), re-upped James Harden (2yr/$70m), traded Russell Westbrook for Kris Dunn (who became the backbone of the Clippers defense), re-signed Ivica Zubac (3yr/$58.6m), swapped PJ Tucker and Mo Bamba for Patty Mills and Drew Eubanks (addition by subtraction), shipped out Terance Mann and Bones Hyland for Bogdan Bogdanovich and a raft of 2nd round picks, and they picked up Ben Simmons for peanuts to round out the playoff roster. 

Swapping Kevin Porter Jr straight up for Marchon Beauchamp feels like a missed opportunity but hardly a killer. Re-signing Terrence Mann might've been a mistake but they got Bogie and a bunch of 2nd rounders for him instead, so no harm done. Does letting BJ Boston walk away bite them later?

It feels like all of their moves worked this year and they quietly shimmied their way up to 5th in the West behind a resurgence from Kawhi and Harden. Bravo!

(*) Rest of 6th Man top 10: Scottie Pippen Jr (Grizzlies), Aaron Wiggins (Thunder), Nickaell Alexander-Waker (Wolves), Jonas Valanciunis (Wizards/Kings), Royce O'neale (Suns). As you can see the top 3 were way ahead of the rest of the pack.

2025 Champions League (Quarterfinals)

1st Leg

Bayern Munich 1-2 Inter Milan

Wow! I kept waiting for Bayern to take over the game and they just couldn't do it. Inter opened the scoring before halftime with a lovely goal from the top of the box (went with the right foot when it was set up for the left, keeper was froze) and that's when it really became a game. Bayern was able to tie it up late, but again they never established any real dominance of the attack, a puzzling performacne especially at home. And then Inter was able to steal it anyway with a late goal (a hockey goal: just fling it in front of the net, see what happens). Bayern stumbled badly last season as Leverkusen came out of nowhere to rule the Bundesliga, but it felt like the stars were re-aligned and Bayern was ready to make a deep run again. But, I dunno, man, they did not look better than Inter at any point in this match and even tying the score late felt like a desperate move--especially since they couldn't hold the draw. I haven't been blown away by Inter at any point in this tourney but Bayern looks out of sorts and going back home with a lead, I gotta think Inter is going to move on. 

Arsenal 3-0 Real Madrid

Wow! Real Madrid doesn't get stunned like this very often, but Arsenal was the better team throughout, dominated possession, had many better scoring chances than Real. Arsenal got on the board with a beautiful direct kick from about 30 yards out--and then doubled the lead with a virtually identical direct kick later on. Then they added a third goal just to pour salt in the wound. I feel bad for the Real keeper, he actually made a number of great saves, but those two direct kicks were just out of reach and the final kick was a brilliant rip that he just couldn't get to. I expect Real to play furious in the return match--but I don't expect them to score 3 times! Gotta figure Arsenal is heading to the semifinals. 

Barcelona 4-0 Borussia Dortmund

Yeah...this was not good for Dortmund. Dortmund couldn't get any attack going at all, Barca dominated all phases of the game and just kept piling on the goals. Man, Yamal and Lewandowski up front feels like a cheat code, like young Magic hooking up with old Kareem. I'd be kinda surprised if Barca lost, even with as well as Arsenal is balling right now. 

Paris St. Germaine 3-1 Aston Villa

Yeah, I thought PSG was the better side throughout.  Aston Villa played a plucky match, took the lead before halftime--but gave it back just a few moments later.  PSG kinda crushed in the 2nd half, it feels like this is the real PSG, too.  

2nd Leg

Aston Villa 3-2 (agg 4-5) Paris St. Germaine

PSG scored right away putting a chill on this match, doubled the lead before halftime and it felt like the rout was on. Then an interesting thing happened: someone woke up Villa and they cooked PSG for the rest of the match but it didn't matter. PSG came out stong, then took the rest of the match off. Made for some furious action--fun game!--but once PSG took an insumountable lead, well, it was insurmountable. 

Borussia Dortmund 3-1 (agg 3-5) Barcelona

Dortmund finished a PK early on, then took a 2-0 lead right after halftime and it felt like we really had something going here. But then an unfortunate own-goal put Barca back in the driver's seat and even tacking on a late goal couldn't move the needle. Dortmund gave it their best but Barca's lead was too much to come back from.  

Inter Milan 2-2 (agg 4-3) Bayern Munich

Inter did virtually nothing in the 1st half of this game, Inter fans must've been pulling their hair out! Then Harry Kane tied up the aggregate just after halftime and it felt like perhaps the tide had turned for Bayern. But Inter took the lead right back, then piled on soon after and suddenly the match felt over. Even when Bayern scored again to get back within striking distance, it still felt like Inter had the game in hand. Inter was the better side in this matchup but Bayern had their moments--and Inter had plenty of shaky moments, too. I didn't come out of this with a great deal of faith in Milan so much as a feeling that Bayern is hollow and soulless right now. 

Real Madrid 1-2 (agg 1-5) Arsenal

Man, Arsenal is on fire. I don't believe they're the best team left, but they're playing as well as anyone in the world right now. Real played hard, attacked well, felt like the better team for stretches of the game, but Arsenal rode their big lead all through the 1st half and added to it right out of halftime. Don't see Real Madrid get toyed with very often but Arsenal controlled Real Madrid for 180 straight minutes. Don't mess with Arsenal.  

Semifinals

Arsenal - Paris St. Germaine

Arsenal is on fire right now, PSG is arguably the most all-round talented squad. My gut says PSG is the more complete team but my eyes tell me Arsenal is killing it right now. Frankly, it's a coin flip.

Barcelona - Inter Milan

I gotta go with Barca, their attack looks as good as anyone and, well, Inter has moments but I don't feel the sustain in their attack right now. Its gonna take a bigger-than-they've-given-so-far kinda effort and I supposed Inter can bring it, but I gotta go with Barcelona, I love that offense.  

2025 NCAA Final

Sweet Sixteen

Maryland 71-87 Florida

Not a shock. Maryland had some talent but I never thought they were a particularly cohesive crew. 

Arizona 93-100 Duke

Duke shot well, surprised the score was this close actually. 

Brigham Young 88-113 Alabama

I thought BYU had good upset potential in this game, but, man, Alabama shot the lights out early on and just kept the scoring too furious for BYU to keep up. If Alabama had played like this throughout, they would've won it all. 

Arkansas 83-85 (OT) Texas Tech

I didn't see this game but just watching the score tick by throughout, it feels like Arkansas worked pretty hard to lose this game. It even felt like they were gonna come back in OT and managed to gack it up anyway. Too bad, I really thought Arkansas had the array of talent needed to pull off some shockers. 

Michigan 65-78 Auburn

Michigan's offense was just too sludge-y to hang with Auburn.

Purdue 60-62 Houston

Purdue was the veteran squad, the defending runner-up, that everyone thought had upset potential. Houston is typically not an offenseive dynamo, indeed their strengths are similar to Purdue. I guess that's why this game went so deep. But Cougars got the W. 

Mississippi 70-73 Michigan State

Ole Miss was looking good early on, but they just couldn't sustain their offense and the Spartans slowly but surely took the lead and made it stand up.

Kentucky 65-78 Tennessee

UK was out of this game early, just couldn't get any offense going at all. The Vols were nice, certainly better, but the Cats had plenty of chances to get back in and just couldn't get buckets to hang. I was struck that all the curls, picks and movement that they employed so effectively against Illinois were not used here. Why not? Oh well. The Vols came to play and they played some rugged defense early on and established a clear lead early that they were able to ride out.  

Elite Eight

Texas Tech 79-84 Florida

Tech hung tough, put it on Florida but the Gators got buckets late and Walter Clayton was the hero. Good game, Tech was the better team for the most part but the Gators found another gear late and stole it. 

Alabama 65-85 Duke

Wow! I thought Alabama was one of the better teams this season and I thought they'd be a serious roadblock for Duke, but, man, Duke just pummeled them. Everyone was hitting shots and once the run began, the Tide got buried pronto and Duke cruised to the end. This was a towering performance by Duke--this is the moment where I just assumed Duke would win it all. 

Tennessee 50-69 Houston

Not surprised by the result, I figured Houston would get past whoever they faced here, but they suffocated the Vols early and this game was long over by halftime. The Vols were good this year, perhaps a little overhyped, and while I didn't think they'd win, I didn't figure they'd get stomped in this manner. A dominant performance by the Cougars.

Michigan State 64-70 Auburn

The Spartans put up a game effort but Auburn was better throughout and finished strong. Michigan State kept it close but I really felt like this game wanted to be a blowout. 

Final Four (all four #1 seeds for the first time since 2008; hardly any stunning upsets this year but it left the best of the best teams facing off at the end--turns out those are the best tourneys!)

Florida 79-73 Auburn

Auburn looked like the better team in the 1st half and built up a 12-point lead early in the 2nd half and it kinda felt like it was over. Then....Auburn did absolutely nothing from that point on and Florida was able to blast right through them. I thought Auburn was the single best team all season long (apologies to Duke, Houston and Florida) and the first 25 minutes or so of this game bore that out; but, then the scoring just completely stopped, Johni Broom never showed up, the hustle plays weren't effective any more and they spun their wheels badly down the stretch. Florida had been overcoming deficits all through the tourney, winning games late, so not a shock to see the Gators getting it done. But the Auburn collapse was so total, so complete that it made me wonder what I saw in them all year long.  

Houston 70-67 Duke

All year long Houston's MO was a team that just grinds opponents down with intense D, superior rebounding and a never-quit attitude. Duke had a nice lead at halftime and pretty much dominated the game for about 30 minutes. Then the Dukies went cold as ice and Houston just kept making plays. The final two minutes were a slow motion horror show for Duke fans as Houston just kept getting bucket after bucket, big steals, all the rebounds, a few lucky calls (*), and when the clock ran out, Houston had the lead. One of the most mystifying conclusions I've ever seen--but, then again, when Kentucky beat Duke early in the season, I remember being similarly shocked, since it never occurred to me that Duke was gonna lose. Duke was arguably the best team all year long but the ACC was so soft this year and it is worth noting that 2 of their losses (Kentucky, Kansas) were the high profile games that they just couldn't finish, so....maybe this fate was in the cards all along for the Blue Devils.  

Final

Florida 65-63 Houston

The Gators were able to do to the Cougars what Houston had just done to Duke. Well, sorta: whereas Duke snoozed through the last 10 minutes of the game thinking that their lead was good enough, here the Cougars just ran out of gas late and couldn't get buckets. Duke kinda stopped playing but Houston was just ineffective. Houston looked like the better team for most the game and when they hit an 8-point lead early in the 2nd half it felt like too much for the Gators to overcome--especially considering how little Walter Clayton had done up to that point. But Clayton got hot enough, Houston scuffled and the Gators made the plays down the stretch to steal it late--giving Houston a taste of their own medicine. Great W for the Gators, tough L for the Cougars, but the Cougars will be back next season, whereas I'm not sure about any of the rest of the Elite Eight.  

(*) Some will cite the over the back foul on Cooper Flagg in the final minute, but go back at look at the play. Houston got the rebound and had the lead with no shot clock remaining, thus a foul was actually the right move at that moment anyway. You may not have liked the call but it was cerainly not in and of itself a killer mistake or controversy.  

2024-25 NFL Playoffs (Conclusion)

(Well I got pretty lazy in January, gonna have to go back and remember all this)

Division Round

Texans 14-23 Chiefs

Another ho-hum Chiefs performance but they got the late TD (as usual) to seal it. The Texans hung with the Chiefs and had their chances to steal it. 

Commanders 45-31 Lions

Whoa! This was the upside down game: the Lions just kept turning the ball over and the Commanders kept making them pay. That said, it was actually still a game in the 4th quarter but the Lions were just spent. The Commanders are a nice story and the Lions had been so dominant all season long that it felt like this would be a fairly easy game for the Lions, but they just could not get out of their own way on this day. Great W for the Commanders!

Rams 22-28 Eagles

Weird game. The Eagles had 3 long TD runs (a 78-yarder and 62-yarder for Saquon and a 43-yarder for QB Hurts) but otherwise the Rams played superior defense and really put it on the Eagles to get stops late in the game. The Rams drove into the red zone but couldn't stop the clock and their opportunities just dried up late. The Eagles were the better team, they made the plays, they scored the points, but the Rams played their asses off and were a handful of plays away from stealing this. 

Ravens 25-27 Bills

The story of the game was the Raven turnovers in the 1st half and then the Bills just holding on for dear life down the stretch. One could argue that the Ravens were better or that this was the proper outcome but I'll take a different tack: the Ravens and the Bills were basically the exact same team this season, their offenses were virtually identical and the defenses were similar enough, too. So when one looks at how the Bills were unable (again) to get past the Chiefs, I would suggest that is exactly what the Ravens would've done, too.  At any rate, both teams are totally capable of beating the Chiefs--and both did during the regular season!--but the Bills faltered and I think the Ravens would have, too.  

Conference Championships

Commanders 23-55 Eagles

The Commanders just kept turning it over and the Eagles just kept putting up points. (I had family stuff going on this day, was in and out of this game--but the Eagles had more points every time I checked back!) Apparently the familiarity of divisional rivals helped the veteran squad rather than the upstart squad this time around. The Eagles were a weird team this season: everyone was down about how last season ended, they had some nice W's but never seemed as good as the Lions or Vikings, got overshadowed in their division by the emergence of Jayden Daniels and even though RB Barkley had a great season, it felt like all the behind-the-scenes talk was of how everyone hated the coach. So even though the Eagles were good from beginning to end this season, they were never anyone's focus--and what attention they did get was mostly disappointing. Well, they were the tops in the NFC this season and even though they were right there all along, somewhow no one saw it coming. 

Bills 29-32 Chiefs

Okay, I'm a lifelong Buffalo Bills fan and, yeah, I'm pretty salty about losing to the Chiefs every god damn year. But, man, as a general sports fan: I don't like these Chiefs, I don't like the way they win. I'm not a hater, I admire athletic greatness and great teams: I didn't hate on the Brady-Belichick Pats or the KD Warriors or the Saban Crimson Tide or the Yankees back in the 1990s or the run the Astros had, I don't hate on Bayern Munich for winning the Bundesliga every year. I'm all for the best teams being the best. I'm not saying they suck, I fully acknowledge that Mahomes is one of the all time greats. And if the Chiefs just destroyaed everyone by 3 TD's every week, I'd be cool with them. Or if they were crafty veterans that figured out different ways to beat people, I'd be cool with them.  My complaint about the Chiefs is that they get lucky. They need 2-3 calls from the refs every week that no other team in the league gets in order to win. Yeah, I said it: they win by special dispensation over and over again. They are a good team, they have a solid pass rush and a great QB and that keeps them in games; but its the love from the refs that get them over the top every time. And I'm fucking tired of it! Again, I don't hate on winners, but I get inured to the ridiculously lucky. And that's who the Chiefs are. We'll see if their lucks holds out.

Super Bowl

Chiefs 22-40 Eagles

Most folks thought this was a boring game but, man, the league has demanded that this is the only way the Chiefs lose, so the Eagles had to run up the score to even have a chance, so unless you're a Chiefs fan--the game HAD to be boring! And for my part....I loved every second of it! Word is that when the Eagles were up 40-6 in the 4th quarter, QB Hurts was begging to keep runing it up and I completely agree. Let the stomping continue! Indeed, the Chiefs scored 16 points after that and Mahomes was able to pull together some reasonable stats after arguably his worst performance as a pro, so the scoreline actually doesn't even suggest how bad a thrashing this was. The Eagles did everything they wanted on offense until they just stopped wanting anything by the 4th quarter and on defense they kept Mahomes so bottled up for 3 quarters, that the Chiefs had flat out nothing for most all of the game. 

If the Chiefs had won by this scoreline I'd tip my cap to them but that was never going to happen; if the Chiefs had honestly engineered a solid W, I'd tip my cap to the them, but the Eagles were too good for that. But if the Chiefs had won this game the same way they acheived most all of their W's this season, man, I might've just stopped watching football for a while. Dead serious! I like all the sports and if the NFL wants to turn it into a shit league, I'll just move on to something else. But that didn't happen, the under-the-radar Eagles crushed the barely-getting-by Chiefs and frankly that's what should have happened. (And I'm currently confident that the Bills and Ravens and others will de-throne the Chiefs for real next year--the key is to stomp the shit out of them!)

2024-25 NCAA Football (The Bowls)

The playoff:

1st Round

Indiana 17-27 Notre Dame (It took Indiana forever to get any offense going. Notre Dame cruised)

SMU 10-38 Penn State (SMU, as in the ACC final against Clemson, did absolutely nothing in the 1st half and were ground up quick)

Clemson 24-38 Texas (Clemson put up a good fight but just didn't have enough to beat Texas)

Tennessee 17-42 Ohio State (Yeah, the score is accurate, this was a pummeling)

Quarterfinals

Penn State 31-14 Boise State (Like SMU, Boise State just couldn't move the ball on the Nittany Lion D)

Texas 39-31 (OT) Arizona State (Crazy game! Felt lik Texas had the game wrapped up early, but the Longhorns kinda sucked all through the 4th quarter, ASU got hot, made plays and tied the game up--and it felt like they were going to steal it, but the Longhorns came to their senses, made some plays of their own and moved on)

Ohio State 41-21 Oregon (A straight-up Buckeye thrashing; the score was 31-0 almost instantly and the game felt over early; Oregon had a good drive before the half and again after halftime, but that was pretty much it)

Notre Dame 23-10 Georgia (Notre Dame forced a fumble right before halftime deep in UGA territory and were able to convert a TD before the half; then the ran back the 2nd half kickoff for a TD and that 14 point burst was the difference in the otherwise even contest)

Semifinals

Notre Dame 27-24 Penn State (Felt bad for the Penn State QB, who threw a late pick to set up the winning FG, tough to go out like that in what was otherwise an even contest)

Ohio State 28-14 Texas (OSU induced a late scoop-and-score just as the Longhorns were about to tie the game up; so on the one hand the game was much tighter than the score suggests and yet....I never thought Texas was gonna win, so....I dunno...about right, I guess)

Championship

Ohio State 34-23 Notre Dame (Notre Dame scored a TD on their opening drive but the QB endured some serious abuse to make it happen, so even though the Irish got off to a good start, you knew they were gonna have trouble keeping it up. And then the Irish defense didn't show up at all and it was 31-7 at the half. OSU's attack faltered in the 2nd half and Notre Dame had some nice moments, but it wasn't enough and the Buckeyes comfortably cruised to the title)

Some are saying that what the Buckeyes went through to win was unprecedented but I would point back to the run the Buckeyes had in 2015: destroyed Wisconsin in the Big 10 final (with a 2nd string QB), handily beat mighty Alabama (with a 3rd string QB!), and smooshed Oregon like a bug in the championship. I thought that was an even more amazing run because I had long considered the Buckeyes out of it before that improbable run. This time, I thought the Buckeyes were the 2nd best team and were able to knock out Oregon (the best team) early on, so as impressive as this run was, it wasn't shocking at all--the way 2015 was. Congrats to the Buckeyes, another great run from one of the all time great programs. 

The other bowls  (*):

Ones I got right: 21

South Alabama 30-23 Western Michigan

Memphis 42-37 West Virginia

Western Kentucky 17-27 James Madison

Cal 13-24 UNLV

Ohio 30-27 Jacksonville State

Tulane 8-33 Florida

Coastal Carolina 15-44 UT-San Antonio

Northern Illinois 28-20 Fresno State

South Florida 41-39 San Jose State

Rutgers 41-44 Kansas State

Oklahoma 20-21 Navy

Texas Tech 26-39 Arkansas

Syracuse 52-35 Washington State

East Carolina 26-21 North Carolina State

Brigham Young 36-14 Colorado

Louisiana Tech 6-27Army

Iowa 24-27 Missouri

Louisville 35-34 Washington 

Baylor 31-44 Louisiana State

Duke 20-52 Mississippi

North Texas 28-30 Texas State

Ones I got wrong: 14

Georgia Southern 26-31 Sam Houston

Pittsburgh 46-48 Toledo

Arkansas State 38-31 Bowling Green

Georgia Tech 27-35 Vanderbilt

Southern California 35-31 Texas A&M

Connecticut 27-14 North Carolina

Boston College 15-20 Nebraska

Louisiana 3-34 Texas Christian

Iowa State 42-41 Miami

Miami (OH) 43-17 Colorado State

Alabama 13-19 Michigan

South Carolina 17-21 Illinois

Minnesota 24-10 Virginia Tech

Buffalo 26-7 Liberty

(*) I just pick winners, no spreads. 

2024-25 NFL Playoffs (Division Round)

Chargers 12-32 Texans

Well, I thought the Chargers had turned a corner, thought Coach Harbaugh brought a new mindset, thought QB Herbert was ready to level up, thought the Chargers were ready to make a move. Nope. Same ol' Chargers. They flat out sucked. The Texan pass rush was effective and the secondary had some moments but really it was the Chargers sucking that produced the score line. Are the Texans ready to move on?

Steelers 14-28 Ravens

Yawn. Every year the Steelers bluster their way to 7th seed in the AFC and then they get blown up in the playoffs because they're not actually any good. This year was no exception. Didn't even think the Ravens played all that well--they didn't have to! 

Broncos 7-31 Bills

The Broncos had a good year: 2nd year of the Coach Payton regime, rookie QB, frisky defense, took a nice step forward this season. And when they opened up with a bomb for a TD, their 7-0 lead had a real edge to it. And then....nothing happened. The Bills were pretty great at home this year and it was only a matter of time before they pounced on the Broncos. 

Packers 10-22 Eagles

Ugh! The Packers really sucked, the blame will go to QB Love--and he did suck!--but frankly I thought the whole team sucked. As bad as they played, the game was still winnable in the 4th quarter--so how bad were the Eagles (well, not quite as bad as the Packers). This was not even a fun game to watch.

Commanders 23-20 Bucs

THIS, this was the game this weekend! Back and forth but I really thought the Bucs were on their way, but a clumsy 4th quarter fumble upended their brilliant defensive stand just minutes earlier. Giving the Commanders a second crack at the red zone late in the game was too much to overcome. Everyone loves QB Daniels now, and he's been ballin' all season long, but I still thought the Bucs should've won this game.

Vikings 9-27 Rams

Yawn! QB Darnold had such a nice season...until the last 2 weeks, when suddenly he turned tentative, held the ball too long, took too many sacks and single-handedly stalled the Vikings offense. The Rams were nice and they knew that Darnold was wobbly, but this was not as massive a win as the score implies--it was just that the Vikings were that bad. 

Division Round:

Texans @ Chiefs (-9) (o/u 41.5)

Are the Texans ready to beat the #1 seed? They might be able to move the ball on the Chiefs and their D-line will be getting after Mahomes, so if they can force turnovers and break an occasional big play, they can hang. The Chiefs haven't exactly been plowing opponents lately, they have been winning late all season long, snatching W's in the final minutes and I expect that to continue. The Texans have a good pass rush, Mahomes won't have an easy time of it. But Mahomes is still the best and I fully expect a typical 4th quarter recovery after a slog of a game. Chiefs 20-13 (Texans and the under)

Commanders @ Lions (-8.5) (55.5)

Everyone is big on the Commanders at the moment, been a while since Washington football has mattered in January and Daniels is giving them some hope. That said, the Commander defense is not good and the Lions offense is arguably the best in the league. I like Daniels as much as the next guy, but I don't see this game particularly competitive. I think the Lions are rested and ready, they've had a bunch of injuries on defense but I don't think that stings them this week (although it'll hamper them in the coming weeks). I like the Lions to score steadily (though perhaps they pull off the gas in the 4th quarter) and get enough stops on defense to rather easily win this game. Lions 34-17 (Lions and the under)

Rams @ Eagles (-6.5) (42.5)

The Rams have veteran savvy, a good coach, a good QB and enough youth to keep the intensity high; but they have a so-so offensive line and so-so defensive line and I don't see them getting turnovers, so even at their best, I just don't think they're better than a final 8 squad. As for the Eagles, they've got arguably the best O-line in the league, a great RB in his prime, excellent WR's and a pass catching TE, and a QB I've always kinda loved....so why isn't this offense better? Some say it is the scheme, which would suggest that now is the time to pull the governors off and go full throttle, we'll see if they do that. So while at first I suggest that the Rams aren't good enough and the Eagles are better, let me flip it now and suggest that if the Eagles don't bring their best game, then the savvy Rams might hang around and steal it. I dunno, man, could go either way, I mean, the Eagles should win but maybe they won't (meh, I'll take 'em anyway). Eagles 20-16 (Rams and the under).

Ravens (-1.5) @ Bills (51.5)

And we come to the game of the week. The two best teams in the AFC (sorry, Chiefs), the two best QBs in the game right now (sorry, Chiefs), two crazed fan bases that have been denied too long (f yourself, Chiefs!), should be a barn burner, right? Uh....I kinda don't think so. I think this game will end up being a blowout. Here's the thing: if RB Henry gets off on the Bills defense, then the game is over; if he doesn't, then I think the Raven offense completely sputters and the Bills win big. Derrick Henry is the key: if he's on, the Ravens will win easily, if not, then I say the Bills win easily. Could go either way but what I'm suggesting is that the 4th quarter of this game will be a dud. Either way, the tongues will be wagging on Monday morning, and either Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen will be taking all the blame. So, even though this is the game everyone is waiting for, I think it might be over--one way or the other--by halftime. (Is now an awkward time to point out that I am a life long Buffalo Bills fan?) I'm going Bills 27-16 (Bills and the under--but if you wanna bet on the Ravens, just flip the score, but either way, I think the Under in this game is the lock of the week, I just can't see both of these teams scoring a ton)

2024-25 NFL Playoffs (Wild Card)

Chargers (-3) @ Texans (o/u (41.5)

I like the way the Chargers are playing lately, they're getting stronger and more reliable on both sides of the ball. The Texans, on the other hand, haven't gotten better at anything all season long. The Texans are a nice team in a terrible division, I think they are the weakest squad in the AFC playoffs. Gotta go with the Chargers, 27-14 (Chargers and the under).

Steelers @ Ravens (-9.5) (44.5)

The Steelers make the playoffs year after year no matter how terrible that offense is--I just don't know how they do it! They haven't won in the playoffs in eons, but really haven't deserved to be a post-season team in eons more. The Ravens have kinda flipped: after being a defensive stalwart with a mediocre offense for years, they are now a dominant attacking squad with a so-so defense. Can the Steelers stop the Ravens running game? I don't see it happening. Can the Steelers score enough to keep this competitive in the 4th quarter? I don't see that happening, either. Ravens 31-10 (Ravens and the under)

Broncos @ Bills (-8.5) (47.5)

The Broncos have been up and down, but I think they're a pretty good squad with a stingy defense and a plucky rookie QB. I don't think they're as good as the Bills, though, who have the ability to pile up points as well as anyone in the league. I like the Broncos to hang into the 3rd quarter. but the slightest mistake will bury them. The Bills will score and the Broncos won't keep up. Bills 31-21 (Bills and the over)

Packers @ Eagles (-5) (45.5)

This is the game I find the most difficult to project. If the Eagles bring their A game, they can roll up the Packers with a quickness; but if they don't, the Packers could hang and be a real danger late in the game. The Packers are young but they had a good playoff win last year and overcame a potentially crippling QB injury this season while surviving one of the toughest divisions I've seen in ages. The Eagles at their best are the better team but anything short of their best makes this a rather even match. I think the Eagles hold off a late rally and get the W. Eagles 27-24 (Eagles and the over)

Commanders @ Bucs (-3) (50.5)

I kept expecting the Commanders to fall off at some point because they had a maddening quality: they won games they should've lost and lost games they should've won. A young team with a good rookie QB can get on a roll or mature faster than expected, but the Commanders have ups and downs that are more like a veteran squad--that I don't understand at all! The Bucs have been much maligned but I think they've been a pretty good squad all year long, with some good W's and playing a tougher schedule than I think anyone noticed. I think the Bucs are the better team and should probably finish this game off; but the Commanders are unpredictable, wouldn't be shocked if they blew up and won this game. I think the Bucs get an early lead, control the game, hold off a late rally. Bucs 26-20 (Bucs and the under)

Vikings @ Rams (-2.5) (47.5)

Man, the Vikings missed the #1 seed by a wisp and just like that, they've not even a favorite in the playoffs. The Vikings just piled up W's all season long, with a strong defense and an excellent passing game. The Rams have a savvy QB that can get it done when the time comes, but I just don't think the Rams defense is good enough to hang. This should be a fun back and forth kinda game but I think the Vikings are the better team and will have more points by game's end. Vikings 34-31 (Vikings and the over)

2024-25 NFL (Week 15)

Games I saw (some of):

Rams 12-6 Niners

Yawn! A real snooze of a game. Deebo Samuel dropped a pass that might've been a TD, biggest play of the game. The Rams did well last week against the Bills and kept it going by catching the Niners giving up on the season and, suddenly, that surge I thought the Rams might go on (and then assumed they wouldn't) is back on! I thought a surging Cards might have been a more dangerous playoff team but a surging Rams squad is gonna be a real pain in the ass. 

Bills 48-42 Lions

Fun game! The Bills owned the 1st quarter, from then on it was a boat race where the Bills managed to hang on. Fun but there wasn't much defense. The Lions needed this game more than the Bills did, they've got the Vikings and Eagles breathing down their necks. So even though the Lions have been the best team on both sides of the ball, suddenly they might be going on the road to open the post-season. The Bills (by which I mean: Josh Allen) are rolling and if they can get some luck with Mahomes's ankle, they might still snag the #1 seed in the AFC.

Bears 12-30 Vikings

The Bears are not a fun team to watch and that's unfortunate--I love a good youth movement! But they are better than last year and I presume they'll make a leap in coaching (Mike Vrabel interested in this gig?) and might be pretty good....next year. The Vikings are a nice team, quietly piling up W's, might still win the division, might get the #1 seed in the NFC--all on the table for them. This is a good team and I still think no one's noticed. 

The rest of the slate:

Chiefs 21-7 Browns. Browns have given up on football; Chiefs may have lost Mahomes for a while, we'll see how bad his high ankle sprain turns out to be.

Bengals 37-27 Titans. The Titans have at times this year impressed me in the O-line and D-line play, especially considering how useless the skill players are arrayed around them; but even the good parts of the team are calcifying and I think the Titans just don't have enough talent (or will) to win any more. Do you see how bad the Bengals D is? They gave up 27 to the frickin' Titans!

Commanders 20-19 Saints. The Saints came back late, went for 2 after the buzzer, I respect that but I didn't much care for the play call. The Commanders are still getting by, I figured they were due for a pullback but I think they can keep winning. 

Ravens 35-14 Giants. The Giants have given up on football; the Ravens need to pass to set up the run, that is their mission from here til the final gun. 

Cowboys 30-14 Panthers. The Cowboys are actually playing their best ball of the season but I don't think anyone has noticed; the Panthers are having fun but that doesn't mean they're going to win games.

Jets 32-25 Jaguars. Yeah, I don't care.

Dolphins 12-20 Texans. The Texans are weirdly uninspiring but they are clearly the class of their division. The Dolphins are done, I guess. 

Colts 13-31 Broncos. The Colts have given up on football. The Broncos are still figuring out how to play with consistency, but they're rounding into shape going into the playoffs, they won't be an easy out. 

Steelers 13-27 Eagles. The Steelers can be dangerous as an underdog, but as soon as you start to believe in them, I think they will disappoint. Nice W for the Eagles, who seem disgruntled even while winning. 

Patriots 17-30 Cards. Yeah, I don't care.

Bucs 40-17 Chargers. Wow, 40-burger on the Chargers? Dang. The Bucs are getting better at the right time. The Chargers are nice but not yet there. 

Packers 30-13 Seahawks. Good win for the Packers; the Seahawks may be in trouble if QB Smith is out for a while. 

Falcons 15-9 Raiders. Yeah, I don't care. (Are we gonna see QB Penix next week?)

2024-25 NFL (Week 14)

Games I watched (some of):

Packers 31-34 Lions

Good game! The Packers played well, the Lions played just a little better. Good to see the Lions get it done against a tough division opponent, good to see the Packers bringing it down to the wire. These are both good teams, the NFC playoffs are gonna be rugged this year. 

Panthers 16-22 Eagles

Yeah, this game was just what I thought it would be: the Panthers have been getting better lately (they bottomed out earlier than anyone else in the league) but still aren't actually good enough to win games--but they are good enough to put a scare in the best teams, such as the Chiefs and Eagles, neither of whom came close to covering the spread on the lowly Panthers. The Eagles didn't seem that interested but they came alive when they needed to, did what needed to be done. Keep an eye on the Panthers if you like teams that cover the spread while losing. 

Bills 42-44 Rams

Fun game! After watching a game with seemingly no defense (no turnovers, for example), its worth remembering that the different in the game was a blocked punt. If the Bills just get that punt off as normal, there's a chance they get the stop and....ah, who am I kidding? There were no "stops" in this game! Hell, it probably benefitted the Bills to get the ball back that much quicker. As a Bills fan it is disconcerting that QB Allen put up 42 points on the road in a flawless performance and still didn't get the W. But, the Rams are wily veterans and they made their stand at home. Good for them. 

Chargers 17-19 Chiefs

The Chargers did nothing at all in the 1st half and were only down 13-0 at halftime. Then the Chargers pretty well dominated the 2nd half but got the FG instead of the third TD and that was all the opening that Mahomes needed to steal the game. The Chiefs don't blow people out, they just get by and they seem able to do that with the bestest or wortest of opponents....but we'll see how long that lasts. As for the Chargers, well, they almost knocked off the champs but...they didn't...so....nice uniforms.

Bengals 27-20 Cowboys

Jeez, Cowboys, all you had to do was not screw up the blocked punt, run out the clock, kick an FG and you'd get the W at home. Instead, you muffed the blocked punt (turning a great play into a 1st down for the other team) and watched helplessly as QB Burrow carved you up and covered the spread (and we come to my real consternation). Oh, Cowboys. I thought this game would've featured a lot more scoring as the Bengals have a great offense and a terrible defense and the Cowboys are kinda middle of the pack in both. More of a barnburner than I would've thought but the Cowboys still managed to look awful. 

The rest of the slate:

Jags 10-6 Titans. Yeah, I don't care.

Jets 26-32 Dolphins. Yeah, I don't care.

Falcons 21-42 Vikings. The Falcons ran out of gas, the Vikings just kept going. 

Saints 14-11 Giants. Yeah, I don't care.

Browns 14-27 Steelers. Thought the Browns might give the Steelers a game but QB Winston just can't get through a game without giving it to the other team, just a matter of time before the Steelers sealed the victory.

Raiders 13-28 Bucs. The Raiders tried but they're just not good, the Bucs are playing their best ball right now--NFC playoffs are gonna be rugged. 

Seahawks 30-18 Cards. Thought the Cards would overtake the Seahawks but losing to them twice in the last 3 weeks has pretty much finished their season. 

Bears 13-38 Niners. Thought the Bears might hustle their way to a result against the fading Niners but it turns out the Niners still have enough to beat a not-good team. 

2024-25 NCAA Football (Week 15)

Watched some:

Mountain West: (20) UNLV 7-21 (10) Boise State 

Boise State just straight smoked UNLV in the 1st half and then not much happened in the 2nd half--to which I would credit Boise State's stifling attack. UNLV did not belong in the playoff and I'm glad Boise State handled their business.

SEC: (5) Georgia 22-19 (OT) (2) Texas

I thought Texas was the better team, the game went back and forth, UGA kinda took off after QB Beck got injured and they had to go to the backup, who was better (though he still threw one of the most inexplicable interceptions I've seen in a while). The two teams are similar: at their best when they're running but sometimes stall and can't sustain, both have top quality pass rush, both have some spice on special teams, but neither team has any standout WR's and UGA's QB is suspect, while UT's is just not as good as it seems like he ought to be. In short: both teams have good--but not great--depth of talent

and play to their strengths, but there are chinks in the armor that top flight opponents can nibble away at. Again, I thought Texas was better but they didn't get it done in OT, so that was that. Both are in the playoff but the winner gets a bye and the loser doesn't. 

Big 10: (3) Penn State 37-45 (1) Oregon

Typically in a normal year there are 3-4 teams (sometimes 5) that look truly capable of winning the championship; but expanding out to 12 teams throws so many more teams in the mix that I think it waters down the top tier schools and this year, only Oregon looked like a real champion all season long. Penn State has been getting better but can't get over the hump of beating the top tier schools for a few years now; expanding out to 12 teams is a godsend to good-but-not-great teams like Penn State. Here, Oregon jumped out to a commanding lead with an offense that ran and passed with ease, converted 3rd downs like pros and just generally always seem to catch the defense out of position. You would expect a team like Penn State to fall to pieces after such an early shellacking, but I was impressed at how well they hung in and came back to make the close, the game went to the final minute when it looked over early. That said....it was over early. For all of Penn State's impressive stick-to-it-tive-ness, I never thought Oregon was losing this game. Oregon is the clear obvious no-brainer #1 team in the land; Penn State is a nice contestant in the tourney, solid enough (if a little vanilla) to hang tough and make the most of others' mistakes. 

ACC: (17) Clemson 34-31 (8) Southern Methodist

SMU played about as awful as they could in the 1st half and I still thought they were gonna win--and was kinda shocked that they didn't. Clemson made SMU pay for their early mistakes (turnovers, bad penalties, dumb plays--they put on the full show of awful!) and rode a 24-7 lead into the half. But after that, SMU picked up their game and looked damn good on offense and pretty good on defense. Clemson was able to sneak in the game-winning FG, but, man, I just didn't think they had it in them to make those kinds of plays down the stretch. I'm glad SMU made the tourney--I think they deserved it; flipside: I think Clemson is the 12th best team remaining (and the reason the extra SEC squad isn't here--not SMU, who totally deserves to be ahead of Alabama, South Carolina and Ole Miss). 

Watched none (or very little)

C-USA: Western Kentucky 12-52 Jacksonville St.

Wow, quite the pasting Jax State dropped on the Hilltoppers. I know nothing about of either of these teams or this conference or this game....except that it looks like Jax came to play and WKU did not. 

American Athletic: Tulane 14-35 (24) Army

Both of these squads have been pretty good all year long, both faltering in November. Every time I turned this game on, Tulane was turning the ball over and Army was poised to increase their lead. Yeah, I saw not much of this because it was clear Army was housing them throughout. Thought for a while that an undefeated Army squad would have to get some kind of consideration from the committee, could there have been enough election year fervor to get the Cadets into the inaugural playoff? (If they'd beaten Notre Dame, we might've found out)

Big 12: (16) Iowa State 19-45 (15) Arizona State 

Yeah, the Sun Devils put in on the Cyclones early and often and this was over pronto. Iowa State is a nice team for keeping the score low, getting a lucky break or two and stealing W's from better teams. But ASU's onslaught nullified all that and Iowa State had no chance to get back into this game. Arizona State got hot late and stole this conference (yeah, I just noticed they were in the Big 12, like, last week), so all I know about them is they're kinda hot right now. But whooping up on Iowa State doesn't get me too pumped this year as even the top of that conference was pretty mediocre (and the bottom featured a lot of typically reliable teams having stinkburger years). Good luck, Arizona State (I have you ranked #11 out of 12).

MAC: Ohio 38-3 Miami (OH)

Nice work, OU! Don't take no guff from the mean preppy kids from the rich camp on the other side of the lake. I can't imagine the Bobcats are worthy of a tournament invite but they went 10-3, avenged their one conference L and stomped their way through the championship. Good season. 

Sun Belt: Marshall 31-3 Louisiana

Two more teams I was not acquainted with this season, looks like Marshall came to play.  

My top 12 

1 Oregon (1)

2 Ohio State (8)

3 Notre Dame (7)

4 Texas (5)

5 Penn State (6)

6 Georgia (2)

7 Southern Methodist (11)

8 Indiana (10)

9 Tennessee (9)

10 Boise State (3)

11 Arizona State (4)

12 Clemson (12)

I'm not in favor of holding the top 4 seeds for conference winners. I think winning a conference earns you a spot in the top 12 but otherwise you get ranked alongside everyone else. So Arizona State taking the #4 seed is positively absurd--really a dumbass way to kick off this new invention! See, Clemson won their conference and they are ranked #12, which is what they deserve (yes: behind the team they just beat!), because Clemson is not that good and the fact that they were able to backdoor their way into this tourney is all the reward they should get. Clemson won and they are getting what they deserve, while Arizona State won and are being waywaywayway overrated. 

That said, this produced some excellent matches that I'm looking forward to. And I'm going to watch as much as the TV will allow.

2024-25 NCAA Football (Week 14)

Games I saw (some of):

Georgia Tech 42-44 (8OT) (7) Georgia

I turned this on at halftime when Tech was up 17-0. I still thought UGA would win, but it was pretty clear they wouldn't be covering the 19.5 point spread. But I was blown away at Tech's offense casually slicing and dicing the vaunted Dawg defense. Tech kept converting 3rd downs, ran the ball effectively, made plays when they needed and more or less just looked like the better team. Then, deep in the 4th quarter, it happened: Tech's QB fumbled (after clearly getting a helmet-to-helmet hit that no one bothered to do anything about) and from there UGA was able to hold off the fatal blow and tie it back up. The OT's went on forever, I now actually understand the rules on college OT, and Tech had their chance in the 1st OT to go for 2 and end the game, but honestly I'm not sure the coach knew what he was doing. Look: after the 1st OT, both teams are required to for a 2-point conversion after a TD, so why not just do it after the 1st one? If you tie the game with a TD in the 1st OT, you have the advantage to finish the game...why not just go for it? Anyway, UGA crawled back out of their hole and staved off disaster, but take away that fumble and they lose in regulation--and UGA certainly wasn't dominant in OT. UGA just isn't as good this year and it isn't simply their stiff QB, this defense gets turned around. This playoff is gonna be weird. 

Borussia Dortmund 1-1 Bayern Munich

I was in and out of a bunch of games this weekend but the big Bundesliga match was the most interesting to me. As a Dortmund fan I had low expectations, it has been a frustrating season so far, but when Dortmund went up before halftime, I was piqued. The game had very little offense, not match action around either goal, Bayern was a little better but never got anything dangerous going with any consistency. Felt like Dortmund was gonna sneak out the W, but Munich (of course!) got the equalizer late on some chaos after a free kick. *sigh* Hey, man, a draw against the best team in the league and your #1 rival is a good result, but, man, the W was in hand. 

Michigan 13-10 (2) Ohio State

Man, I just kept waiting for the Buckeye offense to get going and it just never did. I grant that the Wolverines still have a superior defense but the rest of the squad has taken a major step back since last year's championship run and I would've thought this was easy money for an Ohio State squad that hasn't beaten Michigan in 4 years. Well....I guess not. I've seen enough of both of these teams this year to know that the Buckeyes are clearly easily the better team but they just never got going in this game. Great W for the Wolverines--they can tell themselves they had a GREAT season! Puzzling L for the Buckeyes, this lost them the Big 10! They're still gonna do damage in the playoff, but this one was on their racket and they let it get away.

Top 25

Handled their business

(1) Oregon, (3) Texas, (4) Penn State, (5) Notre Dame, (8) Tennessee, (9) Southern Methodist, (10) Indiana, (11) Boise State, (13) Alabama, (14) Mississippi, (15) South Carolina, (16) Arizona State, (18) Iowa State, (19) Brigham Young, (21) Missouri, (22) UNLV, (23) Illinois, (25) Colorado

Won but did not impress

(7) Georgia. I dunno, man, UGA strikes no fear in me these days. 

Bad beat

(20) Texas A&M. A&M just isn't as good as Texas, they avoided a blowout but they were never in this game. 

(24) Kansas State. The Wildcats had a chance to resurrect their season, but Iowa State is the better squad. 

Not so good

(2) Ohio State. Still losing to Michigan? WTF is going on? 

(6) Miami. Called it! Syracuse has actually been quietly pretty good this year, while the Hurricanes have plowed through a soft schedule. Should've won money on this one. 

(12) Clemson. I thought it would be Clemson winning with a late FG but it was South Carolina. Close games yield unpredictable results. 

(17) Tulane. Every year they either beat Memphis or they don't. This year was a don't. 

Next week's CHAMPIONSHIP matches:

Mountain West: (19) UNLV v (10) Boise State (Haven't watched either of these guys all year long, I look forward to correcting that mistake this weekend)

American Athletic: Tulane v Army (both teams had moments this season, not sure who is the better team)

Big 12: (16) Iowa State v (12) Arizona State (holy shit! I just now realized that ASU is in the Big 12! (Yeah, I'm not very good at this football-watching thing); both teams seem to be getting hot at the right time, should be a fun match)

SEC: (5) Georgia v (3) Texas (a rematch of UT's lone L this season, will they get their revenge? I think they will)

Big 10: (3) Penn State v (1) Oregon (okay, this is interesting; I think Oregon is the best team in all of college football, and while Penn State has trouble against the big boys, the Nittany Lions are a solid team and not gonna be an easy out)

ACC: (18) Clemson v (8) Southern Methodist (SMU has been one of the more consistent squads all year long, Clemson has been up and down; gotta go with the Mustangs)

My Top 12

(Aw, crap, I gotta do one of these? Look: for years and years we've measured the top teams by L's, who had the worst losses against those that had "forgivable" losses. I think that still works fine for the top 4. But expanding out to 12 requires a deeper look at the good W's. For example, Georgia Tech has not made an appearance in the top 25 this season but if they had completed the W over Georgia the other night, that would've given them 3 top-10 W's this season and why not throw them into the playoff? Look, man, you're looking for teams that have unexpected wins, teams that have gone above and beyond, those are the teams that are gonna give better bang for the buck in the playoff. Meh, I'll probably still end up with the same 12 teams I was going to anyway, just a thought for future seasons)

1 Oregon

2 Texas

3 Notre Dame

4 Penn State

5 Ohio State

6 Southern Methodist

7 Indiana

8 Boise State

9 Arizona State

10 Georgia

11 South Carolina

12 Tennessee

(Just couldn't get there with Iowa State, Brigham Young or Alabama. As for, Mississippi, UNLV, Miami and Clemson, they never really even got to my radar. I know, I know: I backloaded three SEC squads in there, even though I have never been less impressed with the SEC than this year. But I think South Carolina is playing well lately and UGA for all their faults do still deserve to be in the playoff conversation and the Vols, well, I dunno, I just thought they were a little better than ISU, BYU or Bama)

2024-25 NFL (Week 12)

AFC

Now:

1 Chiefs

2 Bills

3 Steelers

4 Texans

5 Ravens

6 Chargers

7 Broncos

I think that's (pretty much) your playoff lineup for the AFC. I like the Bills to overtake the Chiefs for #1 and I like the Ravens to win their division and for the Steelers to drop to #7. But I think those 7 teams are the 7 that will be in the playoffs.

East: The Bills are going to win this division. The Dolphins are playing their best ball of the season but I just don't see them catching up to the pack. The Jets suck and the Pats are playing for a draft pick (though I wouldn't be surprised to see them pick up a coupla unexpected wins).  

North: I've watched the Steelers a lot this year and I'm telling ya: their offense stinks. As they head into division play, I expect them to lose a few more times. I'm not a huge Ravens guy (I'm telling ya: their defense stinks) but I think they're better than the Steelers an will sneak past them to take the division. The Bengals are starting to turn it around but they've dug too deep a hole and their D is suspect. The Browns have given up on the season but I think they'll play hard down the stretch and could play spoiler, but they can't make the post-season.

South: The Texans are a sloppy so-so squad but they're better than the Colts, who still have no identity 12 weeks deep in the season. The Jags just aren't up for winning and the Titans, while I like their D-line and O-line, have no offensive talent at all. 

West: The Chiefs are the class of the division and I'd be surprised if they didn't win, but they're not a dominant squad, they are proof that having the best QB and a killer D-line will keep you in every game. The Chargers are better than usual but not so much better that you can rely on them to win the winnable games; I like them to hold on to 5th place overall. I like the Broncos to sneak ahead of the Steelers, they've got a for-real defense and they're getting it done with their rookie QB. The Raiders are awful.

End of Season:

1 Bills

2 Chiefs

3 Ravens

4 Texans

5 Chargers

6 Broncos

7 Steelers

At the end of the day, I think the Bills are better than the Chiefs and since they hold the tiebreaker, I think they'll surpass the Chiefs. I think the second tier squads of the AFC West will finish stronger than the Steelers, who will likely fall behind the Ravens. The Texans have no competition in their division and though they are a bit of a flailing team, I don't see how they miss the playoffs. 

NFC

Now:

1 Lions

2 Eagles

3 Falcons

4 Seahawks

5 Vikings

6 Packers

7 Commanders

East: The Eagles are balling right now and have no competition in their division, be kinda shocked if they're not in the top 2 by season's end. The Commanders are a puzzle: they have overachieved while losing games they should win, which happens to exciting young teams but is scary for predicting their future; I think the Commanders are nice but I suspect they have peaked and will fall out of the playoff race over the next month. The Cowboys are somehow playing better now than they have all season long, but I think they're too far back to reach the playoffs (though they're still in it for now). The Giants have given up on the season, they're playing for the #1 pick.

North: The Lions are the best team in football, killing it on both sides, the best Lions squad I've ever seen and I think they'll ride on to #1 in the NFC. The Vikings are a solid squad, good defense and a good enough offense, I don't think they catch the Lions but I'm not sure they can hold off the Packers. The Packers got hot right about this point last season, have had ups and downs this season but seem ready to go another late season run; I'd be more into them if they weren't looking up at the Lions and Vikings but I think they're a shoo-in for the post-season; I think the Packers catch the Vikings. The Bears don't suck but they aren't great (and, man, they're in a killer division!), but they're playing for next season.

South: The Falcons are like your uncle's weird ass old car: on sunny days you complain about what a piece of junk it is but on a cold snowy day you're thankful that it cranks up and goes; the Falcons have the ability to shock people in the post-season but getting there is gonna be a tough ride but I think they can snag a wild card spot from the sinking Commanders. I think the Bucs are gonna win the South, I like the way the play and I think their schedule turns soft at just the right time. The Saints are awful. The Panthers are awful--but strangely not quite as awful as I expected them to be.

West: Currently the Seahawks are atop the table but I like the Cards to come on and sneak past them (even though they just lost in Seattle). The Seahawks have a surprisingly effective passing game but I'm not in on anything else they do and I just don't think they're deep enough to get it done. The Cards are spunky and weird and I think they'll get surprising W's down the stretch. I thought it might be the Rams to make a late season push (*), but this team just isn't deep enough on either side and they have weird injuries. The Niners just didn't get off the mat this season and time is running out for them.

End of Season:

1 Lions

2 Eagles

3 Cards

4 Bucs

5 Packers

6 Vikings

7 Falcons

If this is the lineup, this will be a killer NFC playoff. What I'm suggesting is that the Packers, Bucs and Cards will get hot and the Lions and Eagles will stay hot and, again, they'll look like weak link of this lineup but the Falcons don't suck, you gotta give them a puncher's chance because they've got veterans and can score points. 

Okay, we'll see what the last 5 weeks bring.

(*) Full disclosure: I love watching Matt Stafford, probably my fave QB to watch right now. When he's in the groove it's like watching prime Greg Maddux or Pedro Martinez, a thing o' beauty.