2023-24 NBA Finals

(TWO) Mavs 98-105 Celtics

Game Two was close into the 3rd quarter, then the Celtics ran off and left them. I thought Jrue Holiday was the Man of the Match. Porzingis was fine but not the electric presence he was in Game One.

(THREE) Celtics 106-99 Mavs

Game Three was, again, close into the 3rd quarter, then the Celtics ran off and left them--well....sorta. The Celtics went on a run, got the lead up to 21, then kinda fell asleep as the Mavs clawed back to cut the lead to 1. Then the Celtics finished strong and won rather easily after Luka fouled out (in major frustration mode). If you wanna say Jaylen Brown was the Man of the Match for fouling out Luka, I guess I'd go with that.

(FOUR) Celtics 84-122 Mavs

Game Four was over quick, as the Celtics threw in the towel rather early, allowing the Mavs to have one big explosion in front of their home fans (the epitome of the 'Gentleman's Sweep'). You knew someone was gonna suck tonight and I figured it would be the Celtics (I put the chances at 75% Celtics, 25% Mavs). One way or the other, you just knew the 4th quarter of this game was gonna be a snooze. 

(FIVE) Mavs 88-106 Celtics

Game Five was a slow motion stomping. The Celtics took control in the 2nd quarter, but somehow there was still this nervous feeling they were gonna blow it. But...how was that gonna happen? We established in Game One that the Mavs needed perfection from Luka AND from Kyrie AND from the bench to even have a shot in this series. Well, outside of Game Four, that never came close to happening. This series was DOA, Porzingis nailed the coffin shut in the 1st half of the 1st game!

The deal is this Celtics version is one of the most perfectly constructed teams I've ever seen--so perfectly constructed that it was hard to recognize because there was no clear and obvious star or dominant attribute. They were just plain good at every phase of the game. This was a top down creation where each player was given a free run to be his best self because the GM and the coach knew exactly how the pieces on the chessboard were gonna win the game. 

Personally, I thought the MVP of this series was Jrue Holiday, that guy was everywhere on defense, had an important offensive blow out in Game Two and just generally held everything together. Brown is a fine choice, he was good, too. But so was Tatum and Derrick White and though Porzingis played limited minutes, one could argue that he sealed this series in his first appearance. Al Horford was good, Peyton Pritchard was good (btw, I totally knew that half court buzzer beater was going in, knew it before he even got the ball), Sam Hauser hit some big shots in Game Five (and just missed on a few others) and even Xavier Tillman had a nice Game Three. Throw in that Coach Mazzullo was punching all the right burtons and it was just a reminder that the Celtics were the best team all season long, we just weren't sure until the trophy was hoisted.

Yes, they didn't have to play Giannis or Emibiid or Jimmy Butler or the scrappy Knicks but...so what? I think they would've beaten them anyway (hell, I think only the Knicks would've really made them sweat). Nor did they have to play the Nuggets (but they were hurt and just not as good as last year, so I think the Celtics could've/would've beaten them) or the Wolves (looking back on it, they might have been the toughest match up for the Celtics, but I think the Celtics would've won) or the Thunder (they didn't have the playoff experience to get through the West much less the Celtics). 

Turns out the Celtics had to beat the teams that got to them and they dispatched them all with ease. This was a steady good team, it wasn't a dominant team or a team that you slobbered over all season long, but this Celtics team is ultimately one of the most complete, all-around teams I think I've ever seen. Tatum and Brown are an all-time great duo, White and Holiday are the perfect complementary players for them, Porzingis was a zany wild card (that may well have been an all-star on a lot of other teams), Horford was the right grizzled vet to keep them in line and even the bench guys (Pritchard, Kornet, Hauser) generally handled their tasks accordingly. This team is set for the next 2 years, Coach Maz knows what he's doing and GM Stevens has shown that he understands the soul of this squad and won't hesitate to make big deals. Huzzah to the Celtics!

I said it last year, I'll say it again this year: I got Nuggets over Celtics in the next Final (watch out for the Bucks and the Thunder).

2023-24 NBA Finals (Game One)

(ONE) Mavs 89-107 Celtics

Well, if Porzingis is awesome like this for three more games, then this series will be over in 4. The Celtics just needed Porzingis to not suck, to not be a zero out there, and he was way more than that, dominating the 1st half at both ends. If Porzingis is terrible then the Mavs might have a chance to pull a surprise, but if Porzingis is a big contributor, then the Mavs have nothing to stop that, no chance to keep up. I hate to overreact to the first game, but it was pretty clear right away that the Mavs will have to be perfect on offense to even have a chance. By perfect I mean Luka needs a very efficient 35 every night, Kyrie needs an efficient 25 every night and the rest need an efficient 30 to hang. That's a tough ask, man, this Celtics defense is pretty damn good and, again, if Porzingis is high level, the Mavs have no answer. 

Here's the real realization of Game One: holy shit, the Celtics are really fuckin' good and we all kinda knew that, but now that we're in the Championship and it is plainly obvious that this squad is just about perfect. Even without Porzingis they should still beat the Mavs, but with a healthy Porzingis, they have way too much for the Mavs to hang with. I'm even really impressed with the minutes the Celtics have been getting out of Luke Kornet and Sam Hauser, I figured they would go away for the Final, but, no, I think I expect to see them playing pretty good minutes. 

The Celtics had great success in Game One on shutting down the dunker-spot contribution of the Mavs offense. If the Celtics continue to take that away, I'd suggest gang tackling on Kyrie and just letting Luka do whatever he wants. If Luka goes for 50 every night but the Celtics shut down everything else....this'll be over in 4. 

The really fascinating wrinkle that could appear: what if the Celtics stomp the Mavs in 4 games even with Luka being amazing every night....but Tatum doesn't do anything? What if Porzingis is the big hero or Jaylen Brown goes off a coupla nights in a row or we all acknowledge that the real winner is the Celtics stifling team defense (led by Derrick White and Jrue Holiday) or the superior acumen of the much maligned Coach Mazzulo or we really begin to appreciate the terrific job that GM Brad Stevens has done putting this squad together....what does that do for the Tatum-is-the-man narrative? Is it just a joke for them to laugh about next season or is it a cloud that hangs over a team that's kinda built to dominate for the next few years? (Yup, this series is already so over that I'm peeking ahead to what could happen next year)

2023-24 NBA Championship (Predictions)

East

Pacers 128-133 (OT) Celtic

Pacers 110-126 Celtics

Celtics 114-111 Pacers

Celtics 105-102 Pacers

Game Two was the big fave blowout game, Game Four was the team in control finishing the job. But the other two matches were nailbiters--and gotta say: the Pacers lost Game One and Game Three more than the Celtics won them. If the Pacers make the right plays late or at least bring some ruckus in the OT, they very easily could've been up early on the road. But....they didn't make the plays, the Celtics ripped them in OT and then ripped them some more in Game Two, went up 2-0, and looked like the dominant Eastern champs that they've been all season. 

The Pacers, again, had their chance to steal Game Three--the gentleman's sweep game. But, again, the Pacers failed to capitalize and the Celtics handled their business. Game Four was good effort from the Pacers, the Celtics did well to squeeze the life out of this squad. 

I was impressed with the Pacers. They faced a schizophrenic and battered Bucks squad, managed to outlast the Intensive Care Knicks, had some real toe-to-tie moments with the Eastern champs, they made the most of their run. They overachieved but this team can score. This team is good, if they run this back, they can expect to be better just on the normal maturation of Halliburton, Turner, Jackson and Benedict Mathurin (who didn't play at all in this series) and another year of Siakim getting acclimated to the rotation, so if the other East teams are gonna fart around, this Pacers team could be top 3 next season--it isn't that crazy. 

Myles Turner gets buckets! I think they'd be crazy to trade him (though he's been one of the buzziest names in the league for years). Tyrese Halliburton had a tough season, started brilliantly--and that was after a fine performance in the FIBA World Cup last summer--but then ran into injury woes, which he was forced to play through to get his bonuses. I love Halliburton, but he's not yet a 4th quarter assassin, when he fully matures into his All-NBA self, he'll win the games that he let get away (like One and Three). Pascal Siakam, who I presume is re-signing with the Pacers (right?), is one that I have long thought of as a top flight 3rd banana, had some for-real moments of carrying this team (albeit without having to face Kristaps Prozingis). I liked Andrew Nembhard (made some cold blooded plays), Aaron Nesmith (seems like the prototypical 3-and-D guy), Ben Sheppard (nice minutes off the bench), they got nice defensive minutes from Isaiah Jackson, and I've loved TJ McConnell for years, these guys keep the speed high and they put points on the board. I'm guessing they'll wildly overpay Siakam, not sure what happens with Obi Toppin (who has tantalizing moments, but I'm not convinced he'll develop into a reliable baller). I think the Pacers are poised to be pretty good next season (and it'd probably be a mistake to trade away McConnell, but he is exactly what some other teams (Wolves, Nuggets, Lakers) are looking for, so if they could get back two rotation guys for him, it might be worth looking into). 

West

Mavs 108-105 Wolves

Mavs 109-108 Wolves

Wolves 107-116 Mavs

Wolves 105-100 Mavs

Mavs 103-124 Wolves

The Mavs went on the road and won the first two games in Minnesota--double shocker! They made the plays to seal the victories and the Wolves did not. I think losing the first two games just right off doomed the Wolves. The games were all close (though Game Four was the least intensity the Mavs played since Game One against OKC), but the Mavs had the reliable buckets and the Wolves couldn't get there. Both teams played well on defense, the Mavs offense had more flavor, especially late.

Ultimately the banner headline of this series is that the Wolves are not a 4th quarter team. They've got a good mix of size, ball handling, youth/veterans to get through a game, but they don't yet have the zazz that it takes to finish out close games. They need to win big to be secure and I reckon the Wolves should be a good regular season team next year. The Mavs, on the other hand, have two relentless scorers and a bevy of a role players that know how to complement them. The Mavs fairly well cruised through Game Three, inexplicably rolled over in Game Four and then brought the hard wood in Game Five, a laugher (to go 3-0 in Minnesota) and finish the Series in five games. 

The Wolves took a great leap forward this season, not unexpectedly--though I sure didn't think they'd win a Game Seven in Denver. They feature size all over the court and a swarming defense that (okay, I'll say it) reminded me of the Parcells-Lawrence Taylor NYG gang tackling attack. At their best, they were near the top of the West all season long, destroyed the Suns, flat out humbled the great Nikola Jokic (in Game 7 in Denver!) and looked to be the faves to finish off the Mavs. Then the troubles started...we learned that the platoon of Anthony Edwards and Mike Conley is a bit on the half-baked side. Edwards isn't yet a game winner and Conley, savvy vet that he is, just doesn't have the command on the court making their offensive attack too young and simultaneously too old. Throw in that Karl Anthony Towns is an unpredictable crazy man (wow, so many dumb fouls!) and Rudy Gobert goes through stretches of being incapable of scoring (dude, you're never more than two feet from the basket--how can you not score!?!??), and this squad just doesn't have the solidity to play a complete game just yet. I'm not sure Jaden McDaniels was effectively utilized in this series (I would've put him on Kyrie rather than Luka) and Naz Reid's minutes were haphazardly mixed and mingled with Towns. This is still a good team as constituted but (I sure ain't the first to say this) they ought to see what Towns can bring them in a trade package; not a bad player, but pretty expensive for his unpredictability. 

Finals

Mavs @ Celtics

The Celtics dominated the East all season long. The Knicks were spunky but faced too many injuries, the Bucks were up-and-down and when Giannis got hurt, they were just down. I thought the Sixers were pretty overrated and with Embiid's injury woes, they never struck me as terribly dangerous. The Heat had one of their mail-in seasons (about every other year for them). The Cavs and the Magic are eerily similar in their "okay"-ness. And it was the Pacers that emerged in the playoffs--not a fluke, but not as good as the Celtics. So the rest of the East didn't really matter, as none of those squads were likely to compete with the Celtics anyway.

The Mavs missed the playoffs last season due to a team decision to tank for a top 10 pick, which netted them Derrick Lively (so organizationally they made the correct choice). They were a pretty good, top half of the table team in the West for the first half of the season, riding a top flight season by Luka. The real jump was picking up PJ Washington (Hornets) and Daniel Gafford (Wizards) at the trade deadline, which solidified their defense, allowed even more offensive focus for Lively thereby remaking the core into the toughest out this post-season. They rather easily dispatched the Clippers (for, like the 10th year in a row), took advantage of OKC not being ready to go deep in the playoffs (young and awesome....but young), and similarly found a Wolves team that had perhaps overachieved by beating Denver. The Mavs ended up with the best possible path by not having to play the Nuggets or (strangely) the Lakers, and matching up with two teams that just aren't ready yet instead. 

So are the Mavs really the best in the West? No but the West is really tight and Dallas is deservedly among the best. Are the Mavs gonna be back next year? I wouldn't bet on it, way too much competition out there to just anoint them here and now. And seeing Anthony Davis, Giannis and Jokic turn into one-and-dones in rapid succession suggests that there are a lot of great players right now, the depth of even the worst franchise is still pretty amazing, and look how hard Tatum and Brown have worked to get to the pinnacle. 

This should be a fun series. Whereas the Wolves and the Pacers couldn't close games, both of these squads are used to winning and I think a long series is in the cards. So far the Celtics have done it all without Porzingis because the East was, well, so winnable that they didn't even need the guy that has arguably been their offensive table-setter all season long. I would've liked to see him play a little against the Pacers, but hopefully he's practicing at a high level right now, and game shape will come easy to him. They can ease him into the lineup, I think I'd use him as a 6th man curveball to start, see if they can maximize him at both ends right away, then think about getting him back to the starting lineup (and putting Horford back in chaos-off-the-bench mode). The Tatum-Brown-White-Holiday core have been chugging along nicely and while I generally like the production they've been getting from their bench, I suspect Kornet and Brissett will be sharply curtailed to some end of quarter minutes, Hauser and Tillman are out of the rotation from here on out and even Pritchard will have a pretty short leash. So the Porzingis minutes are crucial and if he's not right, that's where it goes badly for the Celtics. They could still win with the bench they've been winning with, but the Mavs are cooking right now, not sure they can count on that. 

The Mavs have Luka at the peak of his powers and Kyrie at his most snake-in-the-grass-ness and a supporting cast that is rounding out nicely. Washington got buckets against OKC (though not as much against anyone else), Gafford got stops, Lively is the perfect complement for Luka and Kyrie at both ends, Exum has had useful minutes keeping the pace off the bench, Josh Green and Jaden Hardy have had nice moments. This is a really good squad and that's with minimal (for various reasons) input from their veteran core of Tim Hardaway, Maxi Kleber and Dwight Powell, any of whom could suddenly appear and make plays. This team has everything they need to win. If they come full-on for 7 games, this series will go 7 games.

I think the Celtics are the better team, the Mavs are the deeper team. The Mavs have potentially more reliable offense and even more stifling defense. The Celtics are the big favorite in Vegas but it is not plainly obvious that they are wildly better than the Mavs. Throw in that the Celtics are good for at least one giveaway game per series and it doesn't seem at all crazy that this will go 7 games and anyone can win. 

I fear, though, that the Mavs will either be Luka or Kyrie, whereas the Celtics have an array of scorers that can produce a flourish of buckets. So I expect the Mavs to win on nights when they're shooting with deadly accuracy, but the Celtics should have many nights of more shots, more buckets. 

The real wild card is Porzingis. If he's awesome, the Celtics could wrap this up quick whereas if he's truly awful or unplayabale, the Celtics could fall into a rut of lazy shooting (that is the Celtics kryptonite) and get smoked. I think Porzingis will be good not great, he will be fine, which is really all the Celtics need to bolster everyone else's game. I reckon he'll have one good game, maybe 1-2 bad ones, but for the most part I think he's gonna give 7 good games of production. 

I like the Celtics in 6 (2,3,5,6). I think the Mavs pull a shocker in Game One (fascinating to see Kyrie win it late), then the Celtics re-group, take Games Two and Three, the Mavs claw back Game Four (Luka goes for fitty), the Celtics cruise in Game Five and then seal it on the road.

I'll take Tatum as MVP and Man of the Match in Game Six. I think Brown has at least one balls out game, as does Porzingis and White, Holiday and Horford should all be solid. Looking back, the buzzy love for the Mavs supporting cast will start to fade and then we'll be off to debating whether this is one of the great Celtic champions of all time--and get some wildly conflicting responses. Dang, I just laid it all out, let's see what happens. 

2023-24 NBA Playoffs (Conference Finals)

East

(Game Five) Cavs 98-113 Celtics

Yup, gentleman's sweep. Sounds about right. The Cavs have a weird summer ahead: do they trade Donovan Mitchell (likely won't re-sign next summer) or Darius Garland (highest paid player on the roster)? Do they trade Jarrett Allen (kinda ugly behind-the-scenes report on him) or figure out how to play him with Evan Mobley? Does bringing back Isaac Okoro revolve around any of the potential trades above? Is there anyone that wants Georges Niang (liked him in Philly but he just doesn't fit in this lineup)? For a recently rebuilt team with good young talent that made the quarterfinals, the Cavs have more questions than answer going forward--which is not to say that they'll be bad next year. If they can navigate the landscape, they might be awesome, but they've got some work to do.  

(Five) Pacers 91-121 Knicks

(Six) Knicks 103-116 Pacers

(Seven) Pacers 130-109 Knicks

The Pacers looked so bad in their three losses, it's almost hard to remember that they actually won this series. And, even then, well, I mean, the Knicks had nobody left to play by the time Game Seven rolled around. But the Pacers handled their business by shooting the lights out in the 1st half of Game Seven; the Knicks went on a run after halftime, but the Pacers countered, restored the lead they had at halftime, then when Jalen Brunson went down with a broken hand (after OG Anunoby broke down almost immediately), and that was that. The Knicks had a nice season but injuries absolutely wrecked them--and Brunson, Donte DiVincenzo. Josh Hart and Isiah Hartenstein still almost got them to the next round. Knicks fans should hold their heads high today--and I haven't thought that since the mid-1990s. I think they'll move on from Bogdanovic (clearly not a Thibs fave), I think they'll lose Hartenstein (OKC ought to take a run at him), I think Alec Burks passed his Lakers audition with flying colors, they've got a big decision to make about re-signing Anunoby (man, he's gonna want long term money that his injury history turns into a tough sell), and not sure Precious Achiuwa makes it back either. So as hard as this team worked, I can see a lot of turnover going into next season and while it'll be good to get back all the injured guys, I can see them making big moves (Randle, Robinson could be on the way out) and looking kinda different next year. 

West

(Five) Mavs 104-92 Thunder

(Six) Thunder 116-117 Mavs

Game Six was the flip of Game Four: OKC had a nice but not overwhelming lead for most of the game, but the Mavs perfectly timed their run and stole it late. The Mavs defense impressed me: slowing down arguably the best offense in the league for 5 straight games (eh, the Mavs kinda mailed in Game One) was not something I thought they could do. I loved this OKC team and I expect them to look pretty much the same next year. Listen to me, OKC: ignore the haters and do NOT trade Josh Giddy! Don't do it! SGA and Chet and Giddy look like they've been playing together their whole lives and I think breaking them up just because the Mavs played unexpectedly good D and got crazy scoring from bench players is no reason to give up on the squad that finished #1 in the West this year. I suggest taking a run at Isiah Hartenstein and Nic Claxton, keep an eye on the availability of Isaac Okoro, Derrick Jones Jr, and Bol Bol, go ahead and take Zach Edey (Purdue) at #12 (and/or trade back for future picks) and if they're in the reclamation biz, why not give James Wiseman one more try? They need rebounding, I think the inability to get second chance opportunities put too much pressure on their offense and the Mavs stepped up into it, sucking the life out of OKC at precisely the wrong time. I still like this OKC squad as constituted by they've got to add some size this summer and I think they can upgrade their interior without making any trades.

(Five) Wolves 97-112 Nuggets

(Six) Nuggets 70-115 Wolves

(Seven) Wolves 98-90 Nuggets

Weird series: I can't recall a 7 game series where all the games were blowouts. The Wolves overcame a 20-point deficit in Game Seven, riding a 3rd quarter wave all the way to the conference finals. Jamal Murray didn't seem fully healthy to me, Michael Porter Jr just never got going, Aaron Gordon and Caldwell-Pope just didn't get buckets and though Christian Braun pitched in nicely, he didn't get buckets either. I love Jokic and I thought he was generally great but the supporting cast wasn't there and the Wolves defense put too much pressure on him. What do the Nuggets do this summer? If I was the Nuggets I'd look into what they could get for Porter (how about to Blazers for Brogdon and Robert Williams?), he's a nice spot up shooter but he clearly just can't do anything else. Otherwise they're probably just looking for vets ring-chasing and check-cashing on the way out, like Gordon Hayward, Kyle Lowry, Doug McDermott, Thaddeus Young, Robin Lopez (any of those names getting you excited?). And they might lose KCP and/or Reggie Jackson, too, so I think that bench behind the core of Jokic-Murray-Gordon is gonna get a little skimpier. I love Jokic, but he's looking like a 1-term Prez (had a lot of those lately). 

Conference Finals

Pacers - Celtics

The Pacers are a nice team, good depth, not bad on defense, but they go as their leader, Tyrese Halliburton, goes and sometimes Halliburton doesn't really get going. In the four wins against the Knicks, he was great; but in the three losses, man, he sucked--and sucked in all the ways you really don't want your all-star PG to suck. That said, the Celtics are just better than the Pacers, so prime Halliburton probably doesn't get more than 2 wins in this series. As for the Celtics, I'd give Porzingis the first 2 games off, but I'd like to see him play in Game Three (especially if the Pacers take a game in Boston) or definitely by Game Four. I think the Celtics can beat the Pacers without him, but even still, he'll need to be in game shape by the Finals, so I expect him to play some in this series, even if the Celtics don't need him. You can count on the Celtics to have one truly lackluster performance, I'd put that in Game Three. I like the Celtics to win the first two at home, then give one away in Indy, but wrap it up in five. Again, I don't want to diss the Pacers, they're pretty good and they absolutely earned their way to the final four; but the Celtics have been doing this longer and they have better upfront talent (with or without Porzingis) and in general I just like the Celtics better anyway. Celtics in 5.

Mavs - Wolves

Oh, man, this is gonna be a rock fight. I think this goes 7 games, I think they're all close, and I'm only going with the Wolves because I think at the end of the day, they're tougher and more balanced. The Mavs bested OKC with a resurgence in defense that stymied one of the best offenses in the league--and if the Wolves think they're getting easy buckets, oh I don't think so. But nor will the Mavs. They won't Kyrie float like a butterfly on them, Luka will have a lot of length in his face even from deep beyond the arc and the shocking scoring skills of PJ Washington and Derek Jones will likely go back to dormancy against this attacking defense. I think the Mavs superior offense will win out enough to push this series, but I like the Wolves offense to survive the long series a little better. If the Mavs had another scorer that could be relied upon, maybe they could triangulate away that Wolves D, but I don't think the contributions they got against OKC will materialize against the Wolves. Tough series, hard fought games, I like the Wolves in 7.

2019-20 NBA Pre-Season (Southwest Division)

Rockets
Out:
Trevon Duval, Vince Edwards, Iman Shumpert, Kenneth Faried, Chris Paul, Chris Chiozza, Deyonta Davis, Marko Todorovic, 1st rd draft picks: 2024 (top 4 protected), 2025 (top 10 protected), 2026 (top 4 protected), (OKC gets 1st rd pick swaps for 2021 and 2025),
Paul for Russell Westbrook is a pretty good swap for the Rockets (younger, cheaper, faster, might be a better fit with Harden). They got good minutes out of Faried last year, thought they might keep him around. The other never looked like they were going to work and they don't care about draft picks these days.

Re-signed:
Isaiah Hartenstein (guaranteed his contract beyond 2019), Danuel House (3yr; $11.5m) Austin Rivers (2yr/$4.5m), Gerald Green (1yr), Eric Gordon (4yr/$75.6m), Nene Hilario (2yr/$20m)
All of these deals seems weird to me. They got Rivers to come back at a cheap price but then broke the bank for Gordon...? Green is hurt (may be out for the year) and I'm not sure what Nene gives them at this point. I heard buzz about Hartenstein last summer but not this summer, so it seems weird that they'd re-up him now. House came and went last year, seems odd they'd pay him now.

Newly signed:
Tyson Chandler (1yr/$2.6m), Ben McLemore (2yr/$4m), Thabo Sefolosha (1yr), Jaron Blossongame (1yr), Ryan Anderson, Shamorie Ponds, Chris Clemons, Ray Spalding,
Meh. They're filling out the roster at a reasonable rate, I suppose, but does Chandler really have anything left to give? And don't we already know that McLemore, Sefolosha and Anderon don't have anything left to give? And Blossongame, Ponds and Spalding have already bounced around so much without making a dent. This is a weird supporting cast they've put together.

Over/under (53.5): I got the over
Yeah, I've said nothing good about any of the off-season moves but they still have James Harden, the most efficient player in basketball, and Russell Westbrook, who is a crazy person that doesn't want to lose. Along, with Gordon, Capela, Tucker and whatever those signings give them, that should bring in a lot of W's.


Spurs
Out:
Ben Moore, Dante Cunningham, Donatas Motiejunas, Quincy Pondexter, Davis Bertans, the rights to Nemanja Dangubic
Bertans nails 3's like no one I've ever seen but the rest of these guys are replaceable.

Re-signed:
Rudy Gay (2yr/$32m), Derrick White (team exercised option; 2yr), Lonnie Walker IV (team exercised option; 2yr), Dejounte Murray (4yr/$64m extension)
Gay has had a weird run in his NBA career but I think he's a good fit with the Spurs and even at his age and declining productivity, I think this is still a pretty good deal for the team. I'm cool with nailing down these option years, too, a sign that they've drafted well lately. I would've liked to see Murray blow up before paying him, but I'm confident if the Spurs like him, he must be good.

Newly signed:
Keldon Johnson (4yr/$4m guaranteed), Luka Samanic (2yr/$5.5m), Trey Lyles (2yr/$11m), Quindarry Weatherspoon, Dedric Lawson
I don't know Samanic but he was well regarded in mock drafts all year long. I thought Johnson's performance at Kentucky left a lot to be desired , but the Spurs did well to snag him late in the 1st round. I like Lyles, he's big and versatile, I think he's got a good chance to finally fit in in San Anton. I think they have plans for Weatherspoon and Lawson, curious to see if they get any run.

Over/Under (46.5): I got the under
Just under but I've got them sneaking into the playoffs at #8 (which would be a rematch with the Nuggets in my projection).


Pelicans
Out:
Anthony Davis, Cheick Diallo, Stanley Johnson, Trevon Bluiett, Christian Wood, Elfrid Peyton, Ian Clark, Jordan Crawford, Julius Randle, Solomon Hill, Dairis Bertans
That's an amazing amount of talent leaving here...so why have the Pelicans struggled to make the post-season or do anything once they're there for so many years? Obviously losing Davis is massive but the return was pretty good and losing Hill is a godsend. Randle seems likely to finally find a home with NYK (a dubious achievement), while Johnson, Diallo, Wood, Peyton go off to see if they can actually play in this league.

Re-signed:
Frank Jackson (guaranteed upcoming season), Darius Miller (2yr/$14.5m), Kenrich Williams (guaranteed upcoming season),
Like these guys and the money isn't onerous, so all nice moves.

Newly signed:
Zion Williamson (4yr/$45m), Lonzo Ball, Brandon Ingram, Josh Hart, Derrick Favors, Jaxson Hayes (4yr/$20m), Nickeal Alexander-Walker (4yr/$14.3m), JJ Reddick (2yr/$26.5m), Nicolo Melli (2yr/$8m), Cody Martin (3yr/$4.5m), Josh Gray, Zylan Cheatham, Josh Perkins, Lakers 1st rd picks (2021, 2022, 2025, pick swaps for 2023 and 2024),  2021 2nd rd pick, Warriors 2023 2nd rd pick
Ball is gonna be reborn in New Orleans, Ingram didn't get his extension so he'll be balling all year, Hart will get a chance to just play ball (instead of being a SoCal celebrity), Favors will get a chance to redefine his game, Hayes could be a monster, Alexader-Walker (can we just call him NAW?) may be the surprise ROY candidate this year, Reddick and Melli make an interesting tandem from the perimeter. Oh...but what about Zion? My initial thought was that he would kinda dominate at first (because he's left handed) but then everyone would kinda get used to him by the end of the season; but now that he's starting off injured, I'm thinking the team will have to be careful with him, meaning his rookie year might be kinda sloppy and stop-start. I get that he's exciting as hell but I can't help thinking that he will not have the career longevity that we're all hoping for, the dude is an offensive lineman, that's gonna wreck his knees and ankles over time. I'm rooting for him but he has Kerry Wood written all over him. Or he could be the greatest of all time...you know...either way.

Over/Under (39.5): I'm going under
I think this team will be fun to watch (I love the youth movements, myself) but I don't see them getting a lot of W's. Built for the future not the now.


Mavericks
Out:
Devin Harris, Dirk Nowitzki, Salah Mejri, Trey Burke, Kostas Antetokounpo, Daryl Macon, rights to Deividas Sirvydis, rights to Satnam Singh, 2021 2nd rd pick, 2023 2nd rd pick
Dirk has moved on, long live the Dirk! Now that Luka and Porizingis have arrived, it's time for the team's next act. And Devin Harris is gone, too! I thought they'd bring back Mejri, but the rest are better off elsewhere.

Re-signed:
Ryan Broekhoff (team guaranteed final year), Dwight Powell (3yr/$33m), Maxi Kleber (4yr/$35.9m), Dorian Finney-Smith (3yr/$12m), Kristaps Porzingis (5yr/$158m), JJ Barea (1yr/$2.6m), Justin Jackson (team exercised option; 2yr), Luka Doncic (team exercised option; 2yr)
Okay, I'm good with all of those (though I was surprised to see Barea back from last year's injury already).

In:
Seth Curry (4yr/$32m), Boban Marjanovic (2yr/$7m), Delon Wright,
Okay, good with all of these, too. These all feel like good moves.

2nd rd draftees, 2-way contracts, Exhibition 10, Waiver claims:
Antonius Cleveland, Josh Reaves, Isaiah Roby (3yr/$4.8m), Yudai Baba, Chad Brown,
I don't know any of these guys.


Over/Under (40.5): I'm going under
Close, but I haven't them coming up below the o/u and tied for 9th in the West. I'm looking forward to the Luka-Porzingis pairing and I think the supporting cast is nice but I don't think they're quite ready to challenge for the post-season just yet.  Fun to watch but another year away, I'd say.


Grizzlies
Out:
Tyler Dorsey, Joakim Noah, Justin Holiday, Tyler Zeller, Avery Bradley, CJ Miles, Mike Conley, Julian Washburn, Jevon Carter, Chandler Parsons, Ivan Rabb, Miles Plumlee (and Dwight Howard,  Kyle Korver and Miles Plumlee came and went without suiting up, feels like Iguodala might join that list)
Losing Conley is the end of an era and losing Parsons is the end of an awful era. Otherwise the rest of these guys feel like can be replaced.

Re-signed:
Dillon Brooks (guaranteed contract for upcoming season), Jonas Valenciunas (3yr/$45m), Bruno Caboclo (guaranteed contract for upcoming season),
Valenciunas is a really great int'l player but his NBA days have been kinda hit and miss, but I think he fits the Grizzlies just fine, so good signing for them. Brooks and Caboclo are worth checking out for another year.

In:
Andre Iguodala, Ja Morant (4yr/$39.5m), Josh Jackson, DeAnthony Melton, Grayson Allen, Jae Crowder, Brandon Clarke (4yr/$12m), Solomon Hill, Tyus Jones (3yr/$26.4m), Marko Gaduric (2yr/$5.4m), John Konchar, Dusty Hannah, Bennie Boatright, Suns 2021 and 2022 2nd rd picks, Mavs 2021 and 2023 2nd rd picks, the rights to Satnam Singh
Iguodala has been the center of trade/buyout talk since the moment he arrived but if I were the Grizzlies I'd love for him to stay; but I reckon he'll get traded or waived by February (I'd to like to see him on the Pelicans, actually). Morant looks great in pre-season and has a decent shot at ROY (though I think this team won't be good enough to get him enough attention) and Clarke looks like a good fit for them, too. Jackson, Melton and Allen are reclamation projects, wouldn't be surprised to see all three get re-upped next summer. Crowder is a nice vet, Jones is a solid backup PG, and Hill is still around?

Over/Under (27.5): I'm going way under
This team is a muddle, this season is all about seeing what they've got for the future. I like Morant, Clarke and Melton to shine out and I think Jackson's athleticism and Allen's assholishness should be fun for the fans. I don't see a lot of W's for this team but they've metabolized the worst of their bad contracts, so now is the time to grow.

2019-20 Dallas Mavericks

2018-19: 33-49
Draft pick: 39

Signed for next season ($44.7m): Tim Hardaway, Courtney Lee, Luka Doncic, Justin Jackson, Ryan Broekhoff, Jalen Brunson
Hardaway is still a pretty good wing scorer, that contract is a little rich but its not devastating when considering his production, which should be pretty good next season.
I always liked Lee, in this setting he's the old timer carrying on the mantle from Dirk, Devin and Barea. A soothing veteran presence.
Luka = A star, a bright shining star.
I can see Jackson being a reliable 10-15 minutes off the bench guy.
(I don't know Broekhoff)
I liked Brunson last year, I expect him to get more comfortable and contribute even more.


This summer's free agents: Dwight Powell (opted out), Kristaps Porzingis, Dirk Nowtizki, JJ Barea, Devin Harris, Trey Burke, Dorian Finney-Smith, Maxi Kleber, Kostas Antetokounpo
I think Powell will be getting a raise and be back in Mavs uni soon.
Porzingis, well, I mean, that's where it's at. KP and Luka, we want it and I'm ready for it now!
Nowtizki, Barea, Harris are off to the farm upstate where they can run and play basketball in our collective memories forever.
I don't see Burke coming back, I can see him catching on but probably not here.
I can see Finney-Smith, Kleber and Antetokounpo coming back as low-cost roster filler.


At #39 I'd keep the Euro vibe going with a guy like Adam Mokokoa (France) unless they love a guy like Kris Wilkes (UCLA).


Next year's lineup:
PG Luka, SG Hardaway, SF Porzingis, PF Finney-Smith, C Powell with Brunson, Lee, Jackson, Antentokounpo, Kleber off the bench.

They've got more moves to make and the room to do it. (I figured they'd take a run at Nikola Vucevic and how about Nikola Mirotic, too?)

Pointless Trade Idea

There looks to be a lot of free agent movement this summer.  This could lead to more sign-and-trade deals allowing players to maximize pay while teams maximize roster/cap flexibility.  An example.

Rajon Rondo clearly does not fit with the Mavs.  He expected to play hard this year (whether in Boston or elsewhere) and get a big money deal this off-season.  I don't think that big money deal is out there (even the Lakers, who are certainly foolhardy enough to give Rondo big money, may find even foolhardier options available) and there are frankly only a coupla places he could play even at so-so money.  So where does he get big money?  (He does not)  Where does he get to play big minutes?  (Not a lot of places)

Rondo could play with the Bulls.  And by that I mean he could play with Noah.  To my mind Noah is the one running that offense (a la Marc Gasol, Chris Webber, Sabonis), his hands are sure hands and having them on the ball never makes the coach sweat (this is a soccer quality or maybe hockey), running the offense through him might not be sexy but it will be efficient, clean and productive.  Rondo can play off of Noah, playing a 2-man game to set up Pao, D Rose, Butler, Mirotic (I think Dunleavy's gone next year).  Noah gets his settling touches, Rondo can dominate the ball without having to score, the other guys can set up and play off the ball just fine; Rondo fits the defensive scheme to a T (Rondo and Noah could be a wicked defensive duo).  The Bulls are the one place that I think Rondo can really be old time Rondo again and make a good team better.

But the Bulls don't have money to spend.  If they could jettison contracts, then Rondo becomes somewhat affordable (if he's willing to backload a deal, the Bulls could afford to overpay as the cap expands).  The way for Rondo to get to the Bulls (or any number of places) is much easier as a sign-and-trade than as a free agent signing.  The Mavs need bodies on their roster so a sign-and-trade could be advantageous for them.

How about this: Rondo re-signs for 1st year/$10m, that matches well with Taj Gibson (2 yrs/$8.5 next year) and Tony Snell (2 yrs/$1.5m next year).  Taj Gibson is falling through the cracks in Chicago (not unlike Omer Asik, Brad Miller, Ron Artest, Elton Brand, Tyson Chandler--Bulls got a history), but I think his poor man's Tyson Chandler routine fits with Coach Carlisle and that's not a bad deal over the next 2 years (with or without Tyson Chandler).  Snell is a backup but he's cheap enough to keep as a 3rd string guy, he'll get minutes (if he can get hot as a shooter he can be a star in Dallas).

Bulls get to bring in a star and let go of two guys that weren't gonna play anyway.  Can the Mavs leverage more from the Bulls for Rondo?  Probably but I wouldn't think the Bulls would be into getting gutted for Rondo.  Let's say the Bulls throw in a 2016 2nd round pick and a 2020 2nd round pick (protected).  Rondo for Taj, Snell and 2 2nd round draft picks?  I think Rondo works for the Bulls and the Mavs could use affordably priced bodies.

Keep an eye out for sign-and-trades this year within the usual free agent movement this summer.