This was a FIFA and FIBA World Cup year so I paid little attention to baseball until the last coupla weeks. My Cleveland Indians fell short but stayed in contention right up to the final Friday, an overachieving season (Terry Francona is a GREAT manager, I'm just sayin') that far outlasted both of my Fantasy teams. But just because I know nothing about this year won't keep me from predicting the future.
A's over Royals
Tigers over Orioles in 7. Angels over A's in 6.
Tigers over Angels in 7.
Pirates over Giants
Dodgers over Cards in 6. Nats over Pirates in 5.
Nats over Dodgers in 7.
Nats over Tigers in 6
Monday, September 29, 2014
Wednesday, September 24, 2014
Thoughts on a rumor
Rumor has it the T-Wolves will send Kevin Martin (3 yrs/$20m) to the Bulls for Mike Dunleavy (1 yr/$3.3m), Tony Snell (3 yrs/$4.5m rookie deal) and a 2nd round pick. I kinda like this deal for both teams though I'm surprised the Bulls want to take back that much salary.
The Wolves will basically be trotting out a brand new team next year: they just traded for Anthony Bennett (PF) and Thaddeus Young (SF/PF), Andrew Wiggins (SG/SF) and Zach Lavine (SG) are rookies, they brought in Mo Williams (PG), Gorgi Dieng (PF/C) is still an unknown commodity, they haven't figure out what to do with Shabazz Muhammad (SG) and factor in that Nikola Pekovic (C) was basically injured all last year, that's all shiny new players to watch next year. Bringing in Dunleavy and Snell would give them 10 dudes in entirely new roles for the T-Wolves this year. The climate in which they signed Kevin Martin has changed completely and now his salary outweighs his potential production; flipping him for Dunleavy (SG/SF) makes long term sense and doesn't really diminish the output; Tony Snell (PG) could be a nice PG off the bench; and everyone loves 2nd round picks nowadays. Dumping salary for players that can be useful is the ultimate win-win.
The Bulls have put together the best roster they've had in eons, adding Kevin Martin just gives them that much more scoring to round out the cold nights. A return to form from Derrick Rose, an avoidance of dropoff from Pau Gasol, any growth from Jimmy Butler, and disaster-free rookie years from Nikola Mirotic and Doug McDermott should make the Bulls tough to beat in the East (especially considering they finished 3rd last year none of what I just listed above). Martin is a good addition to the squad on the court, but I'm a little surprised they'd be willing to take back a 3-year deal, as that will limit their opportunities next summer and pretty well guarantee (a la the Pacers) that 2014-15's team will be cemented for 2015-16 as well. Going forward they have all of those guys (except Butler) already signed for 2015-16 too (in addition to Taj Gibson and Kirk Hinrich). Tough call for the Bulls: Martin is a nice fit on the court, but contract-wise I might rather have Dunleavy, Snell and options for next summer. I'd like to think the thinking is: 'let's win now, worry about the money some other time' and I applaud that. But sitting on my couch without team allegiances, I wonder if the future wouldn't look brighter without Kevin Martin (as the T-Wolves are hoping).
The Wolves will basically be trotting out a brand new team next year: they just traded for Anthony Bennett (PF) and Thaddeus Young (SF/PF), Andrew Wiggins (SG/SF) and Zach Lavine (SG) are rookies, they brought in Mo Williams (PG), Gorgi Dieng (PF/C) is still an unknown commodity, they haven't figure out what to do with Shabazz Muhammad (SG) and factor in that Nikola Pekovic (C) was basically injured all last year, that's all shiny new players to watch next year. Bringing in Dunleavy and Snell would give them 10 dudes in entirely new roles for the T-Wolves this year. The climate in which they signed Kevin Martin has changed completely and now his salary outweighs his potential production; flipping him for Dunleavy (SG/SF) makes long term sense and doesn't really diminish the output; Tony Snell (PG) could be a nice PG off the bench; and everyone loves 2nd round picks nowadays. Dumping salary for players that can be useful is the ultimate win-win.
The Bulls have put together the best roster they've had in eons, adding Kevin Martin just gives them that much more scoring to round out the cold nights. A return to form from Derrick Rose, an avoidance of dropoff from Pau Gasol, any growth from Jimmy Butler, and disaster-free rookie years from Nikola Mirotic and Doug McDermott should make the Bulls tough to beat in the East (especially considering they finished 3rd last year none of what I just listed above). Martin is a good addition to the squad on the court, but I'm a little surprised they'd be willing to take back a 3-year deal, as that will limit their opportunities next summer and pretty well guarantee (a la the Pacers) that 2014-15's team will be cemented for 2015-16 as well. Going forward they have all of those guys (except Butler) already signed for 2015-16 too (in addition to Taj Gibson and Kirk Hinrich). Tough call for the Bulls: Martin is a nice fit on the court, but contract-wise I might rather have Dunleavy, Snell and options for next summer. I'd like to think the thinking is: 'let's win now, worry about the money some other time' and I applaud that. But sitting on my couch without team allegiances, I wonder if the future wouldn't look brighter without Kevin Martin (as the T-Wolves are hoping).
Eric Bledsoe saga (conclusion?)
Apparently the Suns are close to announcing that they've signed Bledsoe to 5 yrs/$70m. Higher than I thought they'd go, but I think they did the right thing in signing him. As I detailed earlier, it took a 3rd party to step in and make the deal possible and the Minnesota Timberwolves stepped up last week to be that third party (though I'm not sure why); the T-Wolves would have been unable to sign him straight out, they would've had to make a trade offer to the Suns, but as I detailed earlier the Suns weren't going to fall for that. The Suns wanted Eric Bledsoe not a pile of trade bait, they just wanted him as cheaply as they could get him. Apparently, $14m is the cheapest.
I understand the trepidation, Bledsoe's time in the NBA has been brief and injury-plagued. But I am convinced that he will be the breakout star of 2014-15 and the Suns were right to lock him up. The only reason this didn't happen sooner was the lack of 3rd party interest, it only took a hint of that to get the Suns and Bledsoe to trade ink. Not a lot of FA's moves out there left to make, getting closer to pre-season.
I understand the trepidation, Bledsoe's time in the NBA has been brief and injury-plagued. But I am convinced that he will be the breakout star of 2014-15 and the Suns were right to lock him up. The only reason this didn't happen sooner was the lack of 3rd party interest, it only took a hint of that to get the Suns and Bledsoe to trade ink. Not a lot of FA's moves out there left to make, getting closer to pre-season.
Wednesday, September 17, 2014
FIBA World Cup All-Tournament Team
The all-tourney team: Faried, Irving (USA), Teodosic (Serbia), Batum (France), Pau Gasol (Spain). That's a good five. I think I would've taken Harden over Kyrie but Kyrie was clearly the MVP of the gold medal game, so I think its reasonable to include him.
Other guys that caught my eye: Dieng (Senegal), Gular, Asik (Turkey), Blatche (Phillipines), Pekkonen (Finland), Ayon (Mexico), Saric, Bogdonovich, Tomic (Croatia), Dragic, Dragic (Slovenia), Baynes (Australia), Bjelica (Serbia), Diaw, Diot, Huertel (France), Siebutis, Valanciunas (Lithuania) and frankly Spain's entire roster was killer (until they played France). A lot of NBA names in there, I would've preferred to find more new talent but these guys want to play in the best league in the world and they all deserve to be there.
Kenneth Faried was the overall MVP of Team USA and the tournament in general. He balled out every single game, was the glue of the team, the indispensable dirty work guy, turned every moment into an opportunity, endless energy. He had a great tournament. I thought it would be Anthony Davis or even Derrick Rose but it was Faried. Kudos to that guy.
Steph Curry might've been that glue guy but honestly USA never really needed him to step up in that way; Curry played great but he never had to get to hero level. I thought Demarcus Cousins and Klay Thompson were great off the bench. Anthony Davis was fun to watch (but, like Curry, never needed to kick into that extra gear, so he didn't shine the way he might have). Kyrie Irving was solid, great when he needed to be. James Harden did all that was asked of him, thought he played well from beginning to end. Rudy Gay contributed well. I thought physically Derrick Rose looked great but his game was rusty: he didn't shoot well, his rhythm always seemed a little off. A triumph in its way to see Rose looking healthy but his game has a ways to go. DeRozan and Plumlee did well in their spots.
Andre Drummond was the only one that made me wonder why he was there. In the end it didn't matter but in those games where USA got off to a slow start, I couldn't help but think that Korver or Parsons might've been better choices than Drummond. Oh well, USA ended up win every game by 400 points, so gold medal for Drummond.
FIBA World Cup Round of 16 recap
Obviously USA was the best squad out there. Not so much the talent but the team ethic ingrained by Coach K and Jerry Colangelo. They have built a USA machine, which could've been built 50 years ago but wasn't.
But from the rest of the field, I was most impressed with France. They had a ton of talent and I suspect would've given USA a better game in the final than Serbia did. While France was able to rub out Croatia, Spain and Lithuania, they forgot to pull it together against Serbia in the semi-final game. Batum earned his spot on the all-tourney team and if there was a 2nd team Boris Diaw would've made that. Throw in impressive performances from Huertel, Diot, Gobert, Lauvergne and fine moments from Gelebale and Fournier, and France was a pretty solid squad. Too bad we didn't get to see them match up with USA in the final.
Serbia was solid. Teodosic was all-tourney worthy and Bjelica, Bogdonavich, Krstic and Markovic all had solid tourneys as well. They thumped Greece and Brazil, jumped out to a huge lead on France which they were able to cling to. A solid silver medal for those guys.
Lithuania upheld their proud tradition and while they were on the easier side of the draw, they took all comers (except USA) and almost pulled off the killer comeback on France in the 3rd plac game. That 3rd place game was kooky: both teams were fouling at the end so the last minute of the game took what felt like hours to play out. I can't remember a game that close, that important, where both teams fouled their way to the close. Weird finish, man, that's why I watch these games!
Spain...oh, Spain. Losing to USA in the final would've been an acceptable finish but flubbing the quarterfinal game to France must've hurt bad. The beauty of a tournament like this and that when you really get into it, then an upset like this is HUUUUUUUUGE! They had the whole tourney laid out for them, all they had to do was hold serve. Exciting game, even though it never really felt like Spain was gonna put it together. Marc Gasol was MIA, Rodriguez never got in sync, Llull failed to contribute and why on earth was Ibaka shooting all those 3's? Until that point Spain was the best team in the tourney, guard play was amazing, inside play was solid, they were killing it on both ends of the court and held the home court for every single game. They were rolling, had everything going they way. Tsk, tsk. Losing to another Euro team was just an extra knife in the back. Oh man, when Gobert swatted Pau...game over.
Of the other final 16 I thought the most impressive was Croatia. They went out to soon. I enjoyed watching them, thought they were stronger inside and out than Serbia or Lithuania. But they had a tough draw, had to play France in the round of 16 instead of skating into the quarters like the other top squads.
I wasn't as impressed with Brazil as I feel like I was supposed to be, they seemed old to me (where were Caboclo or Nogueira?). Ditto Argentina, who felt like a farewell tour more than one last run to glory (something akin to Expendables 3). You see this is soccer every 4 years: a team that has performed well in the past keeps running out their veterans instead of integrating the young talent (Spain was this year's culprit in FIFA). Brazil and Argentina showed that paradigm plays out in basketball too.
I didn't see Greece play (bounced by Serbia in the round of 16) but the stats are not impressive for Antetokounmpo, Calathes or Papanicklau. Too early for those guys?
Turkey, Australia, Slovenia played hard but didn't have the firepower to go deep.
Mexico, Dominican Republic, New Zealand, Senegal all did well just to make it out of the group stage. Senegal, perhaps, has the most upside, wonder if we'll see them in 5 years.
Surprised Germany wasn't in this field, I suspect that when they finally embrace basketball as a youth sport then they'll quickly get good just as in soccer; they have good athletes, a good system and the right kind nationalism to want to compete on the international level. Also, I wouldn't be surprised to see Angola kicking it up a notch on the international level; they have many, many amazing athletes, if they ever figure out how to play basketball they could get good right away.
Tuesday, September 9, 2014
FIBA Quarterfinal Power Ranking
1 Spain
2 USA
3 France
4 Brazil
5 Slovenia
6 Lithuania
7 Turkey
8 Serbia
Spain is really good, man. They've got a killer squad, veteran team, they're at home, they are rolling right now, they are clearly the favorite. Clearly. USA has a shot to beat them, wouldn't be a huge upset, but I don't think its likely. Spain is taking this.
USA is good but not great. I suppose we should take heart that they have yet to play their best game. There's something sluggish about this team, honestly only Kenneth Faried has played his best in every game. Derrick Rose looks good physically but his game is rusty, Anthony Davis is playing hard but I'm not sure how he fits in. I suspect going forward there will be more playing time for DeRozan (his wing defense might be the game changer) and the bulk of the scoring will fall to Curry (not to replace Harden but to augment him).
I'm putting France ahead of Brazil because I've seen Brazil go up against USA already. France has a lot of good talent and if they had Tony Parker I'd even give them a puncher's chance against Spain. (The buzz is that next time around they'll have Joel Embiid in a France uni, interesting)
Brazil has good talent down low but USA handled them without much problem in a friendly in Chicago last month. There is a chance that Brazil has been gelling since then and that USA could be worn out by now. But I'm not buying that.
Slovenia is spunky but with Goran Dragic in the absolute sweet spot of his career, they are legitimately dangerous. I think USA will take them this afternoon but don't be surprised if the Dragic brothers keep this close, as USA's perimeter defense is its Achilles' heel. If Goran is money and Zoran contributes, Slovenia could put a real scare into USA.
Lithuania is paced by Jonas Valanciunas going off. I always liked Valanciunas but he kinda got swallowed up in Toronto last year, hope this is a springboard to him being even more of a contributor to the Raptors next year. Oh yeah, I haven't seen Lithuania play...so...yeah, go Raptors!
Turkey is solid. I've been really impressed with Sinan Guler: he is a helluva playmaker. And Omer Asik is a world-class big man down low. I don't think Turkey would take either USA or Spain but they are a formidable squad, one of those teams that does a little bit of everything.
I have not watched Serbia so far. But they beat Greece by 18 in the round of 16. Yipes! Curious to see how well they match up with Brazil.
If I were to do a proper top ten, I'd put Croatia higher than some of the squads that are in here; they unfortunately drew a very good France team early and got run before their time. Greece, too, impressed me, good inside-out play, thought they'd go deeper. And worth tipping one's hat to the swan song of Argentina's Golden Generation, still had their moments in this tournament (but, like soccer, veteran teams falter when they get a little too veteran).
2 USA
3 France
4 Brazil
5 Slovenia
6 Lithuania
7 Turkey
8 Serbia
Spain is really good, man. They've got a killer squad, veteran team, they're at home, they are rolling right now, they are clearly the favorite. Clearly. USA has a shot to beat them, wouldn't be a huge upset, but I don't think its likely. Spain is taking this.
USA is good but not great. I suppose we should take heart that they have yet to play their best game. There's something sluggish about this team, honestly only Kenneth Faried has played his best in every game. Derrick Rose looks good physically but his game is rusty, Anthony Davis is playing hard but I'm not sure how he fits in. I suspect going forward there will be more playing time for DeRozan (his wing defense might be the game changer) and the bulk of the scoring will fall to Curry (not to replace Harden but to augment him).
I'm putting France ahead of Brazil because I've seen Brazil go up against USA already. France has a lot of good talent and if they had Tony Parker I'd even give them a puncher's chance against Spain. (The buzz is that next time around they'll have Joel Embiid in a France uni, interesting)
Brazil has good talent down low but USA handled them without much problem in a friendly in Chicago last month. There is a chance that Brazil has been gelling since then and that USA could be worn out by now. But I'm not buying that.
Slovenia is spunky but with Goran Dragic in the absolute sweet spot of his career, they are legitimately dangerous. I think USA will take them this afternoon but don't be surprised if the Dragic brothers keep this close, as USA's perimeter defense is its Achilles' heel. If Goran is money and Zoran contributes, Slovenia could put a real scare into USA.
Lithuania is paced by Jonas Valanciunas going off. I always liked Valanciunas but he kinda got swallowed up in Toronto last year, hope this is a springboard to him being even more of a contributor to the Raptors next year. Oh yeah, I haven't seen Lithuania play...so...yeah, go Raptors!
Turkey is solid. I've been really impressed with Sinan Guler: he is a helluva playmaker. And Omer Asik is a world-class big man down low. I don't think Turkey would take either USA or Spain but they are a formidable squad, one of those teams that does a little bit of everything.
I have not watched Serbia so far. But they beat Greece by 18 in the round of 16. Yipes! Curious to see how well they match up with Brazil.
If I were to do a proper top ten, I'd put Croatia higher than some of the squads that are in here; they unfortunately drew a very good France team early and got run before their time. Greece, too, impressed me, good inside-out play, thought they'd go deeper. And worth tipping one's hat to the swan song of Argentina's Golden Generation, still had their moments in this tournament (but, like soccer, veteran teams falter when they get a little too veteran).
Wednesday, September 3, 2014
NFL pre-season power rankings (spoiler alert)
I ought to be writing about the FIBA World Cup (USA-Spain is gonna be a classic) but on the eve of the opening of the NFL season, thought I'd try to be wrong in a big way.
AFC
*Broncos
*Pats
*Bengals
$Dolphins
$Chargers
Ravens
*Texans
Titans
Steelers
NYJ
Colts
Bills
Chiefs
Jags
Browns
Raiders
Broncos and Pats are easily the class of the conference; the two best teams last year and I like their upgrades, both on their way back to the conference finals. I'm in on the Bengals, Dolphins and Chargers. Ravens, Texans, Titans improve to the middle. Steelers, NYJ, Colts will maybe kinda hang around for late playoff contention. Bills, Browns will be a more interesting mediocre than last year. Chiefs will be way down from last year. Jags, Raiders still not any good.
NFC
*Seahawks
*Packers
*Falcons
$Saints
*Eagles
$Bears
Bucs
Vikings
Niners
Rams
NYG
Cards
Redskins
Lions
Cowboys
Panthers
Seahawks will be even better than last year. Packers will be back. I'm in on the Falcons, more than the Saints. Eagles will score but the D is still limited. Bears seem overrated to me but still good enough to grab a wild card. Bucs, Vikings vastly improve. Niners will struggle all year. Rams, NYG, Cards, Redskins, Lions are mediocre at best but in the stacked NFC, they'll sink like stones. Cowboys, Panthers should be truly awful.
There you have it. You can watch the games if you want but I've already revealed it all for you...so you know. (PS -- Rosebud is a sled)
AFC
*Broncos
*Pats
*Bengals
$Dolphins
$Chargers
Ravens
*Texans
Titans
Steelers
NYJ
Colts
Bills
Chiefs
Jags
Browns
Raiders
Broncos and Pats are easily the class of the conference; the two best teams last year and I like their upgrades, both on their way back to the conference finals. I'm in on the Bengals, Dolphins and Chargers. Ravens, Texans, Titans improve to the middle. Steelers, NYJ, Colts will maybe kinda hang around for late playoff contention. Bills, Browns will be a more interesting mediocre than last year. Chiefs will be way down from last year. Jags, Raiders still not any good.
NFC
*Seahawks
*Packers
*Falcons
$Saints
*Eagles
$Bears
Bucs
Vikings
Niners
Rams
NYG
Cards
Redskins
Lions
Cowboys
Panthers
Seahawks will be even better than last year. Packers will be back. I'm in on the Falcons, more than the Saints. Eagles will score but the D is still limited. Bears seem overrated to me but still good enough to grab a wild card. Bucs, Vikings vastly improve. Niners will struggle all year. Rams, NYG, Cards, Redskins, Lions are mediocre at best but in the stacked NFC, they'll sink like stones. Cowboys, Panthers should be truly awful.
There you have it. You can watch the games if you want but I've already revealed it all for you...so you know. (PS -- Rosebud is a sled)
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