2022 World Cup (after 2 games)

Top tier (France, Brazil)

These two are gonna be hard to beat. Right now, I'd say this is your final (or semifinal, at least). 

Pretty good (Ecuador, Senegal, England, Spain, Switzerland, Portugal)

I was impressed by Ecuador's scoring ability, they are legit dangerous around the goal. Likewise with Senegal--that's gonna be a good match! Winner is in, loser is almost certainly out. 

England must have felt pretty good about putting the wood to Iran (who looked listless in that match), but must've felt pretty awkward about their lackluster draw against USA (thought USA was better but they each walked away with a point). Will there be nerves against Wales? I doubt it but they could really use the W. 

I wasn't sure what to expect from Spain and while I was reasonably impressed with them running it up against Costa Rica, I took that result with a grain of salt. They were better than Germany and if they'd held on to the W, they'd be riding high. As it is, they look good to move on but they need a positive outcome with Japan and that won't be a gimme. 

Switzerland showed off a solid defense against Brazil and pretty good offense against Cameroon. They need a positive result against Serbia to move on, so what's their plan? I think they're a solid team but they'll need to take control to be dangerous going forward.

Portugal is already through to the round of 16 and they look pretty good, but I haven't been blown away by them. Not sure if they'll bring maximum effort against South Korea.

So far so good (Netherlands, Iran, Poland, Argentina, Saudi Arabia, Japan, Costa Rica, Croatia, Morocco, Cameroon, Serbia, Ghana)

Netherlands are nice, not blowing me away but they're on their way to the next round. 

Iran has had a rugged run in this tourney, reflecting the political unrest back home. Their performance against England is arguably the worst anyone has played so far. But they bounced back with a good W against Wales and are staring down a win-and-in match against the great Satan (well, I don't know that USA is that great). Iran's legacy has the widest variance at the moment, they may look back on the 2022 World Cup with great pride or great shame. We'll see.

Poland is nice, competent, the more they get the ball to Lewandowski the better off they are. Not completely sold on them but any team with Lewandowski has a shot at moving on. 

Argentina's opening L to Saudi Arabia will go down as one of the great upsets of all time in the World Cup group phase. But they righted the ship against Mexico--well, sorta: two moments of brilliance netted them two goals but honestly the other 89 minutes were pretty even. My initial thought was that Argentina was the team that brought the old squad one year too long, but it could be that this Mexico crop is just kinda disappointing. I'm not sure I'm in on Argentina just yet, it is very possible that they are too old. 

Saudi Arabia snuck two quick goals (both beauties, incidentally) to shock Argentina, so this team has pretty much already earned a lifetime of blow jobs regardless of where they go from here. These guys are playing on house money, not sure if they're any good at all.

Japan is a nice squad. When they tied up Germany I thought they earned their draw, but when they got that 2nd goal, I was impressed at their ability to stand up to a (hmmm...."better"....let's say "more talented") side. I thought they were merely unlucky against Costa Rica and now even after a full-on shocking upset, they're still playing for their lives against Spain. They'll need another big steal to keep going.

Costa Rica got shell shocked by Spain, but I think they just had a bad day (I like Spain but even I was like, 'they're not this good'). They rebounded nicely against Japan and have to face a German side that's been backed into a corner--a match that will be a fun one because both teams got nothing better to do than fight to the death. (I can totally see Costa Rica sneaking through)

Croatia is another in the 'are they too old?' discussion. I haven't made up my mind. They looked sluggish against Morocco and exposed Canada as possibly the worst team in the tourney. So are they any good? Will Belgium finally show up and play or can Croatia go ahead and make their plans for the round of 16? Not sure. 

Serbia is nice but let's be honest: they're Poland without Lewandowski and that's not so sexy.

Morocco, Cameroon, Ghana: three African representatives have had good moments and bad moments. They've shown that they can hang and possibly score, each of them has a solid W. Not sure which ones move on, though. 

Lucky to still be alive (USA, Mexico, Denmark, Tunisia, Germany, South Korea, Uruguay)

USA played well against Wales and England but couldn't outscore either opponent, now they must--MUST--beat Iran to move on. I think the Americans are in the top 16 but we'll see if they actually make it. 

Mexico just doesn't have much scoring threat in that lineup, which is odd because they're always kinda spicy. They should beat Saudi Arabia but they need to score some goals (and get lucky) to move on. 

Denmark just couldn't find the goal against Tunisia (who isn't bad) and got beat by a better team in France. They've got to beat Australia, which they are capable of doing, to move on. 

Tunisia is a hard working side but I'd be shocked if they got a worthwhile result against France. Nice team but not superlative. 

Germany got unlucky against Japan and lucky against Spain. I don't recall ever seeing a German side that needed "luck". Where is this team? They've clearly got the talent but they have yet to pull it together. 

South Korea is a nice team, though not particularly dangerous up front. I wouldn't be surprised to see them snag a W against Portugal but that might not be enough. 

Uruguay just couldn't take control against Portugal or South Korea and I don't see them beating Ghana, either. There's always at least one team that brings their old stars back one time too many, looks like Uruguay could be one of those teams. 

Not good (Australia, Belgium, Wales)

Australia is like bigger tougher Canada: they play hard but they're just not particularly good at soccer.

Belgium was my pre-tourney pick to win it all and...uh...that ain't happening. They had one brilliant moment against Canada and made it hold up (got lucky many times in that match) but never did anything at all against Morocco, who legit outplayed them for 90 minutes. Belgium is still alive but unless DeBruyne and Wittsel get it going, this team will be one of the biggest disappointments of recent years.

Yeah, yeah, I get it: it was a penalty, there's no overturning that call. (*) Fine. But getting fouled in the box that one time is all they've done in this tourney so far. 

Bottom of the barrel (Qatar, Canada)

I was surprised how bad Qatar was, they looked pretty good to me in last summer's friendlies, but, man, they stink at everything.

Canada outplayed Belgium for about 89 minutes and 55 seconds but couldn't find the net and then just ran out of gas after an early strike against Croatia. Canada has never been particularly good at soccer, just being here is their peak. 

(*) All I'm saying is Zimmerman was playing the ball, while Bale was just looking for a foul. Not overturning the call, I get that, but it was a lame play. 

2022-23 NCAA Football (Week 13)

Games I watched (some of):

(3) Michigan 45-23 (2) Ohio State

Michigan made big plays while Ohio State struggled on 3rd down. Felt like the Buckeyes were a little stunned by the best team they've played all year. My gut is that Ohio State is still the third best team and I suppose it is possible for them to sneak back into the final four but I seriously doubt it. The Wolverines played well, struck big, got stops on defense and looked like a really good team (if they lose to Purdue next week it would be one of the great upsets of the last few decades). Michigan cemented their way into the playoff with this big big win. 

(15) Notre Dame 27-38 (6) Southern Cal

I wouldn't call this a dominant win, Southern Cal was just better. They moved the ball, they scored points, mostly kept the Irish bottled up and got the big turnover late to seal it. To top it off Notre Dame's best quality, their pass rush, was mostly fustigated by QB Williams's (future #1 pick) ability to make plays with his feet. This was Notre Dame's last big chance to make some noise but USC was just too much for them. I expect the Trojans to finish off Utah next week and then--thanks to A&M finally putting a good game together and knocking off LSU--a trip to the final four...? 

Top 25

Handled their business

(1) Georgia, (3) Michigan, (4) Texas Christian, (6) Southern Cal, (7) Alabama, (10) Tennessee, (11) Penn State, (12) Kansas State, (13) Washington, (14) Utah, (16) Florida State, (18) UCLA, (19) Tulane, (21) Oregon State, (22) Central Florida, (23) Texas

Bad beat

(15) Notre Dame. The Irish had some stumbles this season but all in all they played hard to the end but this week they were up against a really good USC side.

(24) Cincinnati. Tulane looks pretty solid this year, better than Cincy anyway. 

Not so good

(5) Louisiana State. Weird year for the Tigers: early troubles doomed their season and folks were already grousing about their new savior, Coach Kelly; but then they beat Alabama and snuck their way into the top 10 and suddenly the Tigers were in play again....until they got smoked by Texas A&M. Now they're still in the SEC championship but their chances of beating UGA seem slight, so....they're kinda zombie-ing their way to the finish line. Weird downs and ups and downs this season. All in all, a really good season, ahead of schedule in a way but still bittersweet somehow.

(8) Clemson. I've been suspicious of Clemson all year long (well, all decade long, really), but I figured they'd finish off so-so South Carolina and be in position to rise as others fall. But, no. They got kinda blown out in the 2nd half by QB Rattler (are we sure he's not the #1 pick?) and the suddenly eye-opening Gamecocks (no, wait, they're the Washington Commanders now....what are they called?). Not a good finish to a weird season for Clemson. 

(9) Oregon. Got stomped pretty hard in the 4th quarter of their grudge match game against Oregon State (AKA the one team in the PAC that actually plays defense). Oregon has had moments of looking pretty good this season but this L is not a good way to go and play their shot at playing in the PAC championship. Disappointing L. 

(17) North Carolina. Gotta win the grudge match games and while NC State was mostly overrated all season long, felt like UNC was gonna finish strong. Well, the Wolfpack got the better of the Tar Heels this week. UNC is still on their way to the ACC Championship against Clemson--both teams need to bounce back from their respective letdowns. 

(20) Mississippi. I kinda liked Ole Miss this year but losing to Alabama (a game they could've won), really took the wind out of their sails and they've been listing ever since. Should've been better than the grudge match Bulldogs but they didn't get it done.

(25) Louisville. Not a particularly noteworthy season for the Cards but they had enough solid W's to sneak into the top 25, but that won't last long. I thought they'd beat Kentucky but the Wildcats showed up and got it done. 

Next week: Conference Championships

PAC: (12) Utah - (4) Southern Cal (don't count out Utah, they're already responsible for USC's 1 loss)

Big 12: (13) Kansas State - (3) Texas Christian (TCU is rolling but so is K State, should be a good one)

SEC: (11) Louisiana State - (1) Georgia (LSU has had a weird year: while making the SEC championship is wildly unexpected, getting slaughtered by UGA is gonna feel like a real downer; I suppose the Tigers can keep the game close but I can't see them winning)

American: (22) Central Florida - (18) Tulane (I dunno, Tulane has avoided dumb losses better than UCF has, I assume that makes them the big favorite)

Big 10: Purdue - (2) Michigan (jeez, can't sneak Purdue into the top 25 at all? Michigan struggled against Illinois just two weeks ago, any chance that Purdue can shock the world? (I doubt it))

ACC: (10) Clemson - (24) North Carolina (two teams backing their way into the conference finals; I guess I'd have to say Clemson is the better team but I haven't been particularly impressed by them all season long)

Just for giggles, my top 12 going into Championship Week:

(1) Georgia, (2) Michigan, (3) TCU, (4) Ohio State, (5) Southern Cal, (6) Alabama, (7) Tennessee (*), (8) Penn State, (9) Louisiana State, (10) Utah, (11) Kansas State, (12) Tulane

(Sorry, Clemson, I just never bought into that offense this year. Sorry, Washington, not sure how you got so high in the rankings but Tulane needs to be here. Good run Florida State, just outside of my rankings. Notre Dame had an underappreciated season. And South Carolina ended up with two W's over top 10 squads (seriously: tell me why Shane Rattler isn't the #1 pick in the draft right now?).

(*) If the Vols had their QB I'd put them ahead of Bama, but without him I still have them ahead of Penn State.

2022-23 NCAA Football (Week 12)

Games I watched (some of):

(1) Georgia 16-6 Kentucky

Ended up watching more of this than I figured I would simply because Georgia just didn't feel like playing offense, which made the game (sorta) competitive. UK played hard in the 4th quarter but the game was well over by that point. The score would suggest that this was a close game but not really, UGA controlled the game without much effort all the way through but they let Kentucky play them close because (follow me here) I think making UK look good actually makes this a more impressive W for Georgia: if they just won 41-10, which was totally on the table, then the stats dismiss the game whereas if they make Kentucky look good, then it seems like a hard fought victory (when it fact it was the lackluster-est of lackluster efforts by the #1 Dogs). Georgia brought C+ effort because they knew that was all they'd need. 

Top 25

Handled their business

(1) Georgia, (2) Ohio State, (6) Louisiana State, (7) Southern Cal, (8) Alabama, (9) Clemson, (11) Penn State, (12) Oregon, (15) Kansas State, (17) Washington, (18) Notre Dame, (19) Florida State, (21) Tulane. (23) Oregon State, (25) Cincinnati

Won but did not impress

(3) Michigan. Scurrying to hold off mediocre Illinois was not inspiring. I guess we should be impressed that they survived the classic trap game (looking ahead to Ohio State) but frankly it looked sloppy and lucky and hopefully they will cherish their opportunities a little better going forward. 

(4) Texas Christian. Scurrying to hold off mediocre Baylor makes for fun TV but makes TCU look shaky right at the wrong time. They got the W, yeah yeah yeah. 

Bad beat

(16) UCLA. The Bruins gave a game effort but Southern Cal is just better this season. 

Not so good

(5) Tennessee. Oh, man, getting smoked at South Carolina is not a good look. UT was already out of the running for the big prize by virtue of an L at UGA, but this L was just unforgiveable. 

(10) Utah. Gotta beat Oregon to win the PAC.

(13) North Carolina. Dropping a gimme (Georgia Tech) at home is a disappointing L. 

(14) Mississippi. Smoked at Arkansas, not a good way to go. 

(20) Central Florida. You lost to Navy? At home? Oh, man!

(22) Oklahoma State. Man, it wasn't that long ago that I was looking at the Cowboys as a for-real contender for the playoff. But this point they don't have a view of the field. 

(24) North Carolina State. Why is the Wolfpack still in the top 25? We finally rid the ranks of Kentucky, why didn't NC State get the gulag treatment, too? 

Next week's intriguing games

(19) Tulane @ (24) Cincinnati (your...whatever conference this is....championship right here)

(3) Michigan @ (2) Ohio State (okay, here it is)

(9) Oregon @ (21) Oregon State (remember: the Beavers are the one PAC team that prides themselves on defense)

(15) Notre Dame @ (6) Southern Cal (Irish's last best chance to call this a good season)

2022-23 NFL (Midway through the season)

10 weeks is a little more than halfway for most teams, now seems like the time to give an overview of the season so far. The main reason I'm doing this is because the World Cup is in the Autumn this year, normally that interrupts my baseball watching but this year it's gonna interrupt NFL and NBA. Thought I'd do a mid-season accounting before I disappear for a while. 

AFC

Playoff teams: Chiefs, Titans

The Chiefs are still the team to beat. The Titans can run the ball and play defense (and they're in a brutally awful division). 

2nd tier: Ravens, Bills 

The Ravens and Bills both have the same problem: neither of them play a complete game. They look dominant for a while, then they coast their way to a loss. Both should still win their divisions but they're both quite capable of blowing it, too. I think they're both gonna be in the post-season but they need to tighten up their game plans. 

Playoff-ish: Jets, Dolphins, Chargers, Bengals, Patriots

I like the Jets better than most, I think that D is for real, the running game just keeps getting it done and I even like the QB and I still say they are the Bills' biggest competition in the AFC East. Yes, I'm still bearish on the Dolphins, I like the offense but I see their QB spot as still in flux and I suspect they'll be closing the season on a down note (we'll see). The Chargers should be awesome but they're not...wait, that's been true like a decade now. The Bengals can still get their offense going and get W's but they need to get going right now. The Pats for now are stuck behind the Jets and Dolphins, but I think they will capitalize on one or both of them (and still might make the playoffs anyway). 

Slight step up from truly awful: Jags, Broncos, Browns

Yeah, I had the Jags winning their division (at 8-9) but that seems like a foolish thought now; the Jags have moments of looking promising but not a lot of moments like that, they mostly look pretty bad. The Broncos have yet to get their offense going, their season seems done but beware: they are still good enough to play spoiler. I kinda thought the Browns could be good this year but their D isn't as good as they think it is and the running game can't hide the lack of passing attack; will Deshaun Watson play this year? If so, why bother? 

Truly awful: Steelers, Texans, Raiders, Colts

The Steelers have a veteran defense but an offense that is not built to outscore anyone. The Texans have no talent but they play hard, they'll get a few more W's but they're on their way to a top five pick. Not sure what's up the Raiders but they suck on both sides of the ball; feels like its time to draft a QB (but I'm not a fan of this QB class, so...they'll be flailing all through the off-season, too). The Colts are horrible--the fact that they've got 4 W's is a staggering overachievement. 

NFC

Playoff teams: Eagles, Vikings

1-Loss each, they are both getting wins but neither seem like some kind of all-time great squad. The Eagles are good (not great) on both sides of the ball and while I think they are a for-real good team, there's no pedigree here for the winning, so it could come to a halt rather suddenly, no? The Vikings are a hedgehog team that plods along and (for some reason) this year that is translating into W's. 

2nd tier: Cowboys, Giants, Seahawks, Niners

Cowboys defense is fierce, the offense is nice, seems like there's still room for this team to get better, I think they're clearly a playoff team. The Giants have been over performing but I do think they've got some magic to them and the running game + pass rush equation is working big for them now; everyone assumes they will flail by year's end, but the NFC isn't some powerhouse, feels to me like the Giants can survive into the post-season. The Seahawks, too, are taking everyone by surprise but they've got a good coach, solid defense and reliable if not overly flashy offense; I think they're good and unless the Niners really turn it on, I think Seattle can win their division. I have the Niners 4th out of these four but if they can their offense properly fine tuned, they could be way better; not sure why this offense is such a sputter machine, but its not nearly as good as it should be, the Niners have the most variance of any team in the NFC: they could be first or they could be out of the playoffs.

Playoff-ish: Bucs, Packers

The Bucs have struggled on both sides of the ball all season long, but they are starting to show signs that they're coming together; if they can just be okay down the stretch, they can still easily win that division and be a tough out in the playoffs. The Packers have kinda sucked all year long, but the NFC is soft and there is still time for them to find their form and get some W's; the defense has been pretty terrible and the offense is unreliable but there is still time for them to get it together and be a problem in the playoffs. 

Slight step up from truly awful: Commanders, Saints, Falcons, Cards

I dunno, the Commanders aren't that bad but I can't see them making the playoffs, so this is the tier for them. The Saints and Falcons both have decent talent but not in the proper array to get W's, both teams will probably have a coupla shocking W's this season, but neither will get enough to make any real difference in the standings. The Cards have turned Kyler Murray into Eli Manning: he wins with bad teams and loses with good teams; the upside is all the losses suggest that the team is better than you think (which is good, right?).

Truly awful: Rams, Panthers, Lions, Bears

The Rams simply have no interest in football this year, they mortgaged their future, won a Super Bowl, they maxed out their possibilities and now they're just basking in the glow of last year's awesomeness. The Panthers are just bad all around, no idea who they are or what they want out of life. The Lions can sling it around be fun but they're not win games doing that. Yes, I know the Bears have been playing better lately and everyone loves Fields again: but I was never out on Fields and their offensive success merely brings them to the level of the Lions (and that ain't good); Fields is good, the rest of the team stinks, they're not making the playoffs this season. 

2022-23 NFL (Week 10)

Games I saw (some of):

Falcons 15-25 Panthers

Ugh! I was watching this at a friend's house, it was late, I was ready to go, we were both tired of watching this brutally fucking awful football game...but...there was a non-trivial chance that the Panthers were going to find a way to lose this game right up to the end. Dude, the last five minutes of this game had so many near-interceptions--like, pick-6 interceptions just waiting to happen!--the sheer incompetence of both of these offenses (and, well, the defenses, too) just can't be understated. Both of these teams were just awful, awful, awful at football on this night. Thank god these two teams are done playing each other this season. 

Vikings 33-30 (OT) Bills

As bad as the Falcons-Panthers were, well, that's pretty much how bad the Vikings and Bills were, too--except for Justin Jefferson, he was the only one actually playing football out there. Man, this is three weeks in a row now where the Bills have built a nice halftime lead and then simply refused to play football in the 2nd half. I don't get it. In this game, if they'd had just one good 2nd half drive--didn't even need to score points! Just eat up some clock!--they would've won this game easily. Have you watched the game? Do you realize how hard the Bills had to work to hand the victory to the Vikings? The Vikings are a hang-around kinda team, they don't blow people out nor do they get blown out. They don't suck but I don't see how this team is 8-1 (and if you think this victory is an example of how awesome the Vikings are...oh, no, no, no). Make no mistake: this was a Buffalo loss, not a Minnesota win. Justin Jefferson was fuckin' amazing--5 or 6 of the most mind blowing catches I've ever seen!--but otherwise the Vikings should've lost this game if not for Buffalo bending over backwards to hand them the W. I still believe that if the Bills play a complete 60 minute game they can beat anyone in the league, but this taking the 2nd half off shit needs to stop--went from 1st in the AFC to 6th with one L. 

Cowboys 28-31 (OT) Packers

The Cowboys make some puzzling mistakes, felt like they were the better team on both sides of the ball, but then the passing game would grind to a halt while dudes ran the wrong routes--I mean, I dunno, Dak threw interceptions but I couldn't help thinking they weren't his fault. Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers finally got on the same page with Christian Watson, the Packer D finally made some good stops and perhaps it isn't too late for the Packers to make a run. I still thought the Cowboys were the better team and really should've won this game but this is the best the Packers have looked all season. 

Chargers 16-22 Niners

Man, when the Niners get their shit together, they look pretty awesome. Here there were able to hold the Chargers to FGs and then made enough offensive plays to seal the W. The Chargers looked pretty good but would invariably break down on 3rd down and have to settle for special teams. The Niners have weapons all over the place and when they get them going, that offense is legit--and yet....it feels like they should've been more convincing in this game. Right as I'm talking myself into them, I kinda can't do it (same for the Chargers, for that matter). The Chargers really needed this game and they didn't get it, that's bad. The Niners have these moments of making you believe, not sure if it's real or not. 

The rest of the slate:

Seahawks 16-21 Bucs. Have the Bucs finally figured out their offense? Or was this just a fluky win on a neutral site? Are the Seahawks for real or do they flame out from here?

Lions 31-30 Bears. Fun game! Lots of action, none of it mattered.

Broncos 10-17 Titans. The Titans just don't put people away, do they? Can the Broncos actually win games this season?

Jags 17-27 Chiefs. Yeah, the Chiefs put in half effort and got the W.

Browns 17-39 Dolphins. Impressive win for the Dolphins...but I'm still skeptical. Are the Browns gonna get it together this year or no?

Texans 16-24 Giants. Yeah, that's about right. 

Saints 10-20 Steelers. Saints on the road in the weather on grass, this is not a surprising result even though the Steelers are awful. 

Colts 25-20 Raiders. Wow....worst L of the season. If the Raiders can't win this one, they ain't gonna any this year. 

Cards 27-17 Rams. The Rams won their Super Bowl and they clearly just don't care about football any more. The Cards are better without Kyler Murray? (No, but they might be better without Kliff Kingsbury)

Commanders 32-21 Eagles. Am I surprised the wack-ass Commies went into Philly on a Monday night and gave the Eagles their first loss of the year? Not really. NFC East teams routinely embarrass each other in weird ways, especially on Monday night. I don't want to say the Eagles are overrated (they're not, they're really good) but they're not some untouchable juggernaut, they're just a better than average team and there was no reason to suspect they were going undefeated. Likewise, this L is no reason to think they can't win in the playoffs (or that the Commies are good). This is just a Monday Night loss, not a big deal. 

2022-23 NCAA Football (Week 11)

Games I watched (some of):

(9) Alabama 30-24 (11) Ole Miss

Ole Miss ran the ball effectively throughout, but on the last drive when they needed a TD to save the game--a drive that was keyed by big runs early on into Bama territory--they go for four straight useless pass plays and the game was over. Why do teams give up on what works? Alabama's offense was better in the 2nd half but I'm still dubious of their ability to outscore, say, Georgia. And the run the defense got routinely gashed here. Ole Miss could've won this game and I don't think that really occurred to them until they were back in the locker room. Weird game, feels like the bad guys won and I feel bad. 

Top 25

Handled their business

(1) Georgia, (2) Ohio State, (3) Michigan, (4) Texas Christian, (5) Tennessee, (7) Louisiana State, (8) Southern Cal, (9) Alabama, (10) Clemson, (13) Utah, (14) Penn State, (15) North Carolina, (19) Kansas State, (20) Notre Dame, (22) Central Florida, (23) Florida State, (25) Washington

Bad beat

(11) Mississippi. Could've won, it just got away from them. 

(18) Texas. TCU is good this year, I was rather impressed the Longhorns made a game of it. 

Not so good

(6) Oregon. Gotta beat Washington, especially at home.

(12) UCLA. Gotta beat Arizona, especially at home. 

(16) North Carolina State. Gotta beat Boston College at home. (The previous two are unfortunate, but this one's unforgiveable--I'm long done with NC State)

(17) Tulane. *sigh* *See above about dropping conference home games. 

(21) Illinois. What? Another one!

(24) Kentucky. Clean up in aisle SEC! UK dropped home games to South Carolina and Vandy--and you thought they had a shot at UGA? Come on, man, the Wildcats should've been dropped weeks ago.

Next week's intriguing matches: 

(19) Kansas State @ West Virginia (looks like a walkover since K State is rolling, but don't sleep on the Mountaineers, this has upset written all over it)

(7) Southern Cal @ (16) UCLA (I think Southern Cal is vastly better, but this is an upset potential)

(10) Utah @ (12) Oregon (in the big picture both of these squads are played out, only USC can come out of the Pac, but this still makes for a fun game)

Top 12 (/16) (*)

(1-4) Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan, Texas Christian (I agree with the consensus and while Michigan and Ohio State still have yet to meet, I don't see how the loser gets knocked out of the top 12)

(5-10) Tennessee,  LSU, Clemson, Alabama, Southern Cal, Penn State (I've got the same teams as the polls but in a different order; USC, LSU and Clemson can still play their way into the top 4, but Tennessee, Bama and Penn St cannot; I anticipate that Clemson will sneak ahead of Bama by year's end)

(11-12) Utah, North Carolina (these two had good, not great seasons, both have disappointing L's but promising W's)

(13-16) Oregon, Mississippi, Kansas State, Notre Dame (this is the overflow pile, ready to sneak in if any of the top 12 falter; also Notre Dame still has USC on the schedule, they're still alive for top 12 position)

(Imaginary 12-team playoff)

(Week 1) Georgia, Ohio St, Michigan, TCU off

I'd say: Tennessee over UNC, Penn St over LSU, Clemson over Utah, Bama over USC

(Week 2 Quarterfinals)

I'd say: Georgia over Bama, Buckeyes over Clemson, Michigan over Penn St, Tennessee over TCU

(Week 3 Semifinals)

I'd say: Georgia over Tennessee, Ohio State over Michigan

(Week 4 Final)

I dunno: OSU over UGA

Now this illustrates that there are still meaningful games ahead, the season is far from over. But also: there's a lot of rematches in your playoff. Also, seems like 4 extra games to win it all would necessitate a lighter non-conference schedule and getting conference games earlier. 12 teams just gets you more mediocre teams, which plays injury risk to the better teams but not much else. Do you see how adding more teams just ups the Rollerball factor?

(*) Why 12? Well, because in the next few years, that's where we're going, figure we may as well get the feel for it now. 

As of week 11, I got 15 teams, 2 of which (Kansas St, Mississippi) I think are probably not real contenders and no one else. If we looking at a meaningful top 12, I'd say the top 10 are solid, UNC is probably in and either Utah or Oregon takes #12. 

Does any of this matter? Not yet, but a 12 team playoff is probably happening pretty soon.

2022-23 NFL (Week 9)

Games I saw (some of):

Bills 17-20 Jets

Josh Allen really kinda sucked in this game, he had an interception on the opening drive that was just a straight up gift to the defense and then another in the 4th quarter where I have no idea who he was throwing to. Meanwhile, the Jets ran the ball effectively, especially in the 2nd half where they had two clock-eating drives that really took the wind out of Buffalo. The Bills are a good squad but their two losses show the path to defeating them: run the ball effectively, control the clock and the Bills kinda wilt. Good W for the Jets, I've been in on them all season long and I still am; that defense is for real, the running game is good and I still like the QB, I think NYJ is going to the playoffs.

Rams 13-16 Bucs

You know how fucking lame this game was? I turned it off right before the Bucs came back to win, because their previous drive was so lame (where they should've taken the lead in the final minute) that I just figured the game was over and I didn't want to watch any more. Turns out the Rams were even lamer and managed to give the ball back to the Bucs with virtually no time on the clock and still let them win. Ohhhhhhhh, what a shit show. Look, the Rams all season long have just looked uninterested in football, but today was a whole new level, they went waaaaaay out of their way to lose this one. As for the Bucs, they just suck, I can't believe Tom Brady would just give up on his family unless he thought the Bucs could be good, so they're not disinterested, they just suck. This was a battle of a team that just isn't very good and another team that just doesn't care. I know this looked like the sexy game in the pre-season but making this the Sunday marquis game was not a good move. 

Titans 17-20 (OT) Chiefs

Strangely fun game considering what a grind it was (and that the Titans were playing with no QB). The Titans played stingy defense and ran the ball well but, let's be honest, the Chiefs still should've won by two TD's. Football is a hard game and Titans Coach Vrabal has a knack for making the game even harder (though it was hardest for his own QB, right? 'I know you haven't been allowed to do anything for the first 58 minutes of the game but now we need you to go win it for us, okay? Good luck! We're all counting on you'). Kudos to the Titans for kinda coming close to pulling the upset, but I still feel like if the Chiefs wanted to it sooner, they could've had it sooner. The Chiefs are weird: instead of just casually crushing teams, which it seems like they could easily do, they scramble around try to lose before coming to their senses. If they just clean up their game plan, they're easily the best team in the league but somehow that never seems to occur to them.

Ravens 27-13 Saints

The Ravens are a puzzling team: sometimes they look so dominant and other times they look completely incompetent. If they ever figure out how to bring out their best game, they could win the Super Bowl. But...does anyone think that's going to happen? Meanwhile, the Saints are one of those permanently deluded teams that think they're good enough to win every game, even when its plainly obvious they are a mediocre team. They play hard but they don't play smart, they're not as good as they think they are and that's why they keep coming up short.

The rest of the slate:

Eagles 29-17 Texans. Yeah, that's about right. 

Chargers 20-17 Falcons. Yeah, this had FG-to-win-it written all over it. Normally the Chargers gack those games but they won it, good for them.

Dolphins 35-32 Bears. The Bears have been much much much better on offense the last few weeks, not enough to win games but enough to give some optimism for next year. The Dolphins keep rolling along, but, man, we all know they are one injury away from having a top ten pick in the draft.

Panthers 21-42 Bengals. The Bengals brought the running game today, not sure why it took so long to figure that out. The Panthers could be in line for the #1 pick if they want it (the Texans suck but the play hard enough to steal a coupla wins down the stretch). 

Packers 9-15 Lions. Ooof! Aaron Rodgers threw three interceptions in the red zone (to be fair, all of them were kinda fluky), that's the kinda year it has been in Green Bay. The Lions are weird, occasionally good enough to surprise but mostly terrible. 

Colts 3-26 Patriots. Yeah, that's about right. The Colts are a disaster, the Pats roll along but somehow aren't as good as they ought to be. 

Vikings 20-17 Commanders. Yeah, that's about right. The Vikings manage to get wins while give the minimal amount of effort, the Commanders play as hard as they can to lose games close. 

Raiders 20-27 Jags. What is up with the Raiders? That offense has moments, then goes cold as ice. Nice W for the Jags. 

Seahawks 31-21 Cards. Seahawks are legit good (no longer a surprise). Cards stink and are rapidly imploding. 

2022-23 NCAA Football (Week 10)

Games I saw (some of):

(1) Tennessee 13-27 (3) Georgia

The Georgia pass defense was air tight (the pass rush will get the credit but I thought they were mostly coverage sacks), Hooker had nowhere to go with the ball all day long and UT just had no attack at all. UGA had full control by halftime and when the rains came in the 3rd quarter, it just doomed the Vols. UT gave a good effort but they just couldn't move the ball, couldn't get anything going. Georgia was the better team and they showed it on this day. Impressive win for UGA.

Top 25

Handled their business

(2) Ohio State, (3) Georgia, (5) Michigan, (7) Texas Christian, (8) Oregon, (9) Southern Cal, (10) Louisiana State, (12) UCLA, (14) Utah, (15) Penn State, (17) North Carolina, (19) Tulane, (22) North Carolina State, (24) Texas, (25) Central Florida

Bad beat

(1) Tennessee. I like Tennessee but being ranked #1 was a bit of a novelty, an extra layer of hype for the UGA match. Georgia's defense gave the Vols nowhere to go, Tennessee put up a game effort but they're just not as good as Georgia's A game. 

(6) Alabama. Everyone gave up LSU for dead, well they're not dead any more. Yes, I know Bryce Young made the crazy play to almost win the game, but I'm telling ya: I guarantee there were 4-5 easy plays he didn't make earlier in the game that made his crazy scramble necessary (remember Jim Edmonds? We use to marvel at the great plays he made in centerfield while totally ignoring the fact that they didn't need to be so amazing, he was just a hot dog). As for the Tigers, I loved going for 2 at the end, you got the momentum go get the victory (and they did). Tough L for Bama, really probably should've won the game.

(13) Kansas State. They've had a few nice W's this year but at no point did I ever think Kansas State was a top 10-ish squad. An L at home to Texas puts the kibosh on that weird day dream. 

(16) Illinois. Yeah, how Illinois drifted this high in the rankings is a mystery, but an L at home to so-so Michigan State brings that to a close. 

(20) Syracuse. I think so little of Syracuse that a loss at Pitt is just a bad beat even if they came in as the ranked favorite. 

(21) Wake Forest. A competitive L at NC State is not a bad loss (but it ain't a W, either). 

Not so good

(4) Clemson. I'm still wildly unimpressed with their offense and when you get stung by a 3-loss Notre Dame squad--and handled comfortably, no less--everyone sees it. This is a bad bad bad L for Clemson. 

(18) Oklahoma State. Man, I was still in on this team just two weeks ago, but another Saturday and another conference thumping later (this time @ Kansas) and it is plain the Cowboys were pretenders all along. 

(23) Oregon State. I'm normally forgiving of conference losses on the road, but if you wanna be in the top 25, you gotta win these games. 

Next week's intriguing matches:

(9) Alabama @ (11) Mississippi (are we looking a three loss Alabama squad? Boy, at college football headquarters they must be perusing the ancient texts to see what happens if Alabama isn't in the playoff--no one will know what to do!)

Louisville @ (10) Clemson (Hey, Clemson fans, bring the Pepto, 'cause UL can score points, so I expect this to still be a game in the 4th quarter)

(22) Central Florida @ (17) Tulane (come on, really?)

(25) Washington @ (6) Oregon (I expect the Ducks to get it done)

(4) Texas Christian @ (18) Texas (TCU is really good but the Longhorns are unpredictable; could be a nothing burger of a game or it could be the game of the year, I dunno)

2022-23 NFL (Week 8)

Games I saw (some of):

Bears 29-49 Cowboys

The Bears offense is starting to move the ball and that's a positive thing to see. But the Cowboys are getting their roll on and they're looking good right now. At first it felt like the Cowboys might've been swept up by the transition back to Dak--something about the backup just doing what needs to be done makes it hard for the starter to get his groove back--but they seem to have put that to rest. (That said, Lions and Bears aren't exactly the top of the competition, so maybe this is a premature projection)

Giants 13-27 Seahawks

The Seahawks down the stretch made plays and the Giants couldn't get it done. I think these are strangely fairly even teams but the Seahawks have a desire to succeed whereas the Giants feel lucky to be here. In keeping with that, I kinda like this Seahawks team, I think they can that shoddy division of theirs because they know they have to play hard; on the other hand, the Giants started 6-1 but would you be surprised if they finished 6-11?

Packers 17-27 Bills

Man, this had 41-10 written all over it and it felt to me like Josh Allen was trying to not run up the score. In the 1st half the Bills were pretty dominant but in the 2nd Allen over threw every 3rd down pass in a way that seemed....well....intentional. I think he knew he had the W and didn't want to step on the gas. Meanwhile, Aaron Rodgers knew he was gonna win the game but he was able to cover the spread and make the game look competitive (when it wasn't really). Still love the Bills, not sure why they left the stomp boots at home, but they were the clear victor. The Packers are flailing badly, they're not terrible but they need to re-tool some things (like offense and defense, for example) if they're gonna make the post-season. 

Bengals 13-32 Browns

Dang, just one of those nights for the Bengals, even though it felt like they'd played their way out of that. The Browns have a good running game and a good pass rush and on nights like this, that's enough to finish off an opponent that just doesn't have it. Good W for the Browns, their season isn't over, they can still get some magic going; bad L for the Bengals, they had been rolling but without JaMarr Chase, they'll have to figure it out all over again.

The rest of the slate:

Ravens 27-22 Bucs. Best against best, the Ravens are better. The Bucs D had been so good all year long but that offense is so ineffective, it's dragging down the other side, too. 

Broncos 21-17 Jags. This game could've gone any direction and it would not have surprised me. I don't think the Broncos are as bad as we thought they were, don't think the Jags are as good as we thought they could be. Looks like "next year" for both teams. 

Panthers 34-37 (OT) Falcons. I caught the end of the 4th quarter--memorable! The Panthers made the crazy play to get the TD to tie it up at the end of regulation, WR gets penalized, they miss what would've been the game-winning extra point, then blow it in OT. Not an important game but that moment will linger for a long time in this league. 

Dolphins 31-27 Lions. The Dolphins have put together a pretty good team but their QB situation is not ideal, feel like that's gonna be an albatross all year long. The Lions can score points but they don't outscore people. 

Cards 26-34 Vikings. Typical Vikings victory: they seem like the better team but still have to struggle to seal the victory. Typical Cards loss: outclassed all the way through but spicy enough to hang around and look dangerous late.

Raiders 0-24 Saints. What happened to the Raiders? I kinda like that offense, why didn't they bring to New Orleans? The Saints are one of those teams that isn't good, isn't bad, they're gonna lose games they should win and win games they should lose. 

Patriots 22-17 Jets. The Jets had a shot to beat the Pats and they couldn't get it done. That said, I still think these two teams are closer then we realize: two good defenses, two so-so offenses.

Steelers 13-35 Eagles. Yeah, the Steelers suck and the Eagles are rolling. Not a shock at all. 

Titans 17-10 Texans. Okay, if you say so. Seems like the Titans should be better but they're not an easy out. The Texans suck but play hard.

Commanders 17-16 Colts. Oh yeah, this is exactly how this game should've turned out. 

Niners 31-14 Rams. Still not completely out on the Rams, but it is clear they ain't got no fire in 'em this year. The Niners really have a nice looking attack and a pretty good D, if they can just find some consistency, they can win the NFC (we'll see). 

2022-23 NCAA Football (Week 9)

Games I saw (some of):

(14) Utah 21-17 Washington State

In and out of this game but it seemed to me that Utah was the vastly superior team, not sure why this was still a game in the 4th quarter. Utah looks likely to end up as the best 2-Loss team, would that be good enough in a 12 team tournament? (A little too early for that argument, Utes)

Florida 20-42 (1) Georgia

I'm not a huge fan of the Florida QB but I thought he could be enough of a wild card to throw UGA off. Yeah, not so much. Georgia moved the ball without much problem and quickly reminded us all that the Gators are just not that strong this season. UGA is playing like a #1team right now. 

(19) Kentucky 6-44 (3) Tennessee

Tennessee has never really had much trouble with Kentucky and the Wildcats have already had their season killing stumbles, but I thought this had a trap game written all over it and the Vols might stumble. Nope. The Vols were up to the task and made quick work of the Cats in a really impressive performance. (TBH, the bar I was in switched to the World Series at halftime and no one wanted to go back to football) The Vols got UGA next week, biggest game of the year so far.

Top 25

Handled their business

(1) Georgia, (2) Ohio State, (3) Tennessee, (4) Michigan. (7) Texas Christian, (8) Oregon, (11) Southern Cal, (12) UCLA, (14) Utah, (15) Mississippi, (17) Illinois, (21) North Carolina, (22) Kansas State

Won but did not impress

(24) North Carolina State. This is not a top 20 team, 

Bad beat

(13) Penn State. The Nittany Lions are nice but just not good enough to get past the giants of their conference right now. 

Not so good

(9) Oklahoma State. Whoa! WTF? I've been in on the Cowboys all season long, even kept with them after a tough L to TCU but, man, they were never in this game. Kansas State whomped the shit out of them from beginning to end--looked like they felt sorry for OSU in the 2nd half. Not a good look, Cowboys.

(10) Wake Forest. I've kinda liked Wake all year long but I never felt like they were a top 10 team and while I'm a little surprised how badly Louisville put in on them, I'm not shocked that they lost a road conference game but they're not that good. 

(16) Syracuse. If they were a for-real top 20 squad, they would've handled Notre Dame at home. 

(19) Kentucky. Tennessee was an opportunity for Kentucky to salvage the season (well, with the fans anyway) and the Cats couldn't get it done. Will they be back next year? We'll see.

(20) Cincinnati. If they deserved to be here, they would've won. 

(25) South Carolina. Losing at home to Missouri is not good.

Next week's intriguing matches:

(2) Tennessee @ (1) Georgia (okay, here we go)

(6) Alabama @ (16) Louisiana State (remember we wrote off LSU? Well, here they are with a shot to fuck up Bama's season. If this is still a game at halftime, then it's big deal)

(20) Wake Forest @ (21) North Carolina State (seriously, ACC? This is what you're bringing to the table?)