2020-21 NBA Finals

Bucks in 6

Giannis was a monster, but more of a slow moving endurance monster tonight. Bucks got out to a quick lead then went ice cold in the 2nd and the Suns were up at halftime. The Suns weren't even playing particularly well in the 2nd, the Bucks just sucked at attacking the basket for many, many possessions. (They reminded me of Game Four of Suns at Clippers: both teams went through a long stretch of where they just could not score, neither team could finish at all, it was weird, it was like the back alley fight scene from They Live) In the 3rd the Bucks grabbed the lead back but couldn't hold it and it was tied going into the 4th. Suns tied it at 82, Bucks outscored them 23-16 from then on. The Bucks attack was just more reliable, the Suns struggled to get good shots, Giannis was 17-19 from the line (*), the Suns had no answer for any of it. 

Giannis (50pts, 16-25FG, 17-19 FTs, 14 boards, but with 2:6 a:t, uncharacteristic stat line in this Final for Giannis) was awesome again. Though even he was harried, he didn't exactly glide to his 50 tonight, he grinded through it better than anyone else could keep up with. Holiday was back to be good on D/bad on attack (**), Middleton was fine but not really reliable as a scorer, Lopez was good, Portis had moments (good and bad), Connaughton was making plays but just a wild card, Tucker did Tucker stuff. Not the most dialed-in performance but Giannis is Giannis and the world of low hanging fruit looks different to that guy. 

The Suns just ran out of gas. Paul was brilliant for two games (1,2), okay for two (3,6) and was pretty bad in two (4, 5); if he'd been brilliant for 5 games, I think the Suns could've won, but he just does not have that in him. (***). Booker was great for the most part but also had a coupla clunker games (3,6), as well; I think Booker is a big time scorer and he is their carrier for the next few years, they need another one but they've got one. I was blown away by Ayton, I think he was transformed by CP (so I'm sure Ayton is rooting for CP to return), but I was impressed enough to think he's ready to step forward (with/without CP). I was impressed with Mykal Bridges and Cam Johnson throughout the post-season, those guys make a killer tandem, they're not Tatum and Brown, but they are fine 2-way cornerstone rotation guys. Cam Payne had some nice moments (meh, ups and downs), announced himself as potential 3rd PG for a playoff team (that's not bad actually). Jae Crowder still has miles in him, he still plays pretty good defense and he's even occasionally good for a big game knocking down 3's, too. Dario Saric is probably gonna be out all next year, right? I wasn't much of a fan of Frank Kaminsky, so determined to not make mistakes that he looked like he had his eyes closed most of the time, though he did give them pretty good minutes in a choppy Game Six. 

The Bucks were the better team, Giannis the bigger better star, Bucks in 6 is the correct outcome. I originally said the Suns in 7, I thought this was a series where the home team takes every game. But after Game Four, the way the Bucks just casually snatched the game away from Paul/Booker at the end, suggested to me that CP was done and the Bucks now completely understood that they were the better team at both ends. The way the Bucks just suffocated the Suns in Game Five was the R-rated scene in this otherwise family friendly summer entertainment. Game Six was the opposite: in Game Five the Suns were good at everything and didn't come close to victory, whereas in Game Six they kinda sucked at everything but had chances to win in the 4th. The Sun had a great season, made a memorable run and were a fun team to watch while it lasted. But Game Five was the night Jrue Holiday showed up and wrecked shop, Game Six where Giannis just outlasted the field (dominated by default).

All right, so draft next week, then Summer League in August, get these Olympics (****) outta the way and then....right?  The sports schedule is back to normal, no?  NBA and NHL are back to normal pre-season, the World Series and MLS Championship gets off like clockwork, football is always just football, and then college basketball is back on track and the world of sports is back to reality....right? 

(*) I know he missed his last FT, I believe his first one, too. If I'm not mistaken, he hit 17 straight throughout the meat of the game. Pretty good for a guy that sucks at FT's. Hey, man, Tim Duncan was a surprisingly bad FT% guy that became much more reliable in the playoffs, extra points, man, every extra point matters in the playoffs. 

(**) In all six games Holiday was great on defense, he was A+ on D, he was fucking great, he was like Meryl Streep on defense. Offensively he was great in Game Five (man of the match, IMHO), but otherwise he was pretty terrible on offense. He would attack the basket, get there, then put up a lame shot, it's like he was doing 95% of the work but giving up on that last 5% and just getting horrible shots. In Game Five, he knocked down jumpers, then was able to confidently mix up his attack, but that was the only game where that worked. He knocked down 3's okay but his midrange stuff was not good and actually kinda awful. But defensively he was amazing and he had to be out there 45 minutes a night. 

(***) Okay, I'm gonna do this. I really do admire Chris Paul but I'm here to bury him. This was the best possible chance of him winning a championship and it didn't happen. No Ad, no Jamal Murray, no Kawhi, don't have to play the Jazz or the Nets, up 2-0 in the Final, dude, I'm not saying it was on a platter, but hard to imagine a better platter in CP's future. I don't mean to denigrate this run, this is way better than I ever thought Chris Paul could do--he proved me wrong but getting as far as he did. But he's also shown that even under cosmically granted circumstances, it just isn't gonna happen. If the Suns didn't win it this year with CP, I don't see that running it back makes them better next year. 

(****) Never much cared for the Olympics. As I get older I wish they'd just go away. 

2020-21 NBA Finals (after 5 games)

Game Two: Bucks 108-118 Suns

Giannis was amazing (15-22/42 pts, 12 boards), the rest of the Bucks were awful (Middleton + Holiday go 12-37 for 28 pts, yeech). Holiday was getting to the basket but not finishing, Middleton never got going at all, Lopez was all out of whack, Teague and Portis gave mostly empty minutes, Tucker did Tucker stuff. All Giannis and nothing but Giannis and that actually kept them in this game (Jrue has been great on defense all the way through, but his offense has been spotty to say the least). 

CP was amazing, Ayton was amazing, Booker was good, Crowder pitched in, Bridges was money (8-15/27pts, dang!), I kinda love Cam Johnson he's been great at all times, the Suns had a great flow to them, the team defense was workable and the rebounding was good. At home the Suns can roll points quickly and keep a lead and though it was never a blowout, the Suns controlled the game pretty well from beginning to end. 

Game Three: Suns 100-120 Bucks

Giannis goes off again (41pts, 13 boards; 6:1 ast:to, just a fucking brilliant game and he dominated Lebron-like all the way through. Giannis has gone up a level, we wondered if he could, the answer is 'yes'. We're watching it, he's blossoming, I hope he wins, frankly I'd rather see Giannis as an eternal all time badass rather than affirm that Chris Paul was everyone's secret favorite player. 

The rest of the Bucks are better, they have a killer run before halftime, Suns almost make close again in the 3rd (Bucks 74-70, 5 minutes to go in the 3rd; Bucks 46-30 from then on), Bucks cruise through the 4th to bring the series back to 2-1. 

CP was not great. Booker was literally on the bench for most of the 2nd half, never understood why...? Ayton got in foul trouble early and they found themselves stuck with more Frank Kaminsky than is good for winning basketball, Bridges struggled, Cam Payne looked out of it, Cam Johnson was good but not enough. The Suns just never got any rhythm, had a little push in the 3rd but they couldn't stay hot enough to get back into it. 

Middleton got legit hot for stretches, Jrue's defense was still great though his offense was not so much, Lopez makes sense again, Tucker does Tucker stuff, Connaughton cemented his place in the rotation, Teague gave reliable minutes. All around great performance by the Bucks, good teamwork, good individual play, the game was over fairly quick. The home team has won every game and the Bucks look firmly in control. 

Game Four: Suns 103-109 Bucks

The Suns held a nice lead through most of the game but all along it felt like it was just one well-timed Bucks run to flip the game and, yeah, Bucks grab the lead back at 97-95 with 3:08 left in the game. Bucks outscored them 12-8 from there. Easy as you please, I was waiting for the Shymalan twist at the end and there it was like clockwork.  

Giannis was mellow but still a positive performance, Middleton went off, Jrue's defense is still great and his offense not so much, Connaughton is now clearly the guy, Portis looks good enough to get minutes, Teague again is reliable (if not a true plus player), Tucker does Tucker stuff. My dumb hot take: Brook Lopez has been great and the criticism of him is reading it all wrong; the problem with Lopez coming high to guard CP isn't that he can't guard CP, he's been fine, Lopez gets really wide. he can't stop CP's jumper but he pushes him away from the basket just fine; it's that pulling Lopez on to CP leaves Ayton being marked by Holiday or Teague or Tucker and that's useless, CP's gonna beat that every time. The criticism is misplacing the inefficiency with Lopez on CP rather than Lopez not on Ayton, Lopez is the Bucks best choice against Ayton, not against Paul. Seems to me in Three and Four they seemed to have solved that (though in the 1st half of Five it seems like Lopez is trying to lure Paul toward the basket to cut off Ayton's path; feels like CP is gonna drain a million 15 footers tonight)

CP was not good (felt like he worked hard for his 10points, 7,asts, 5 turnover), did not have his usual command of the game, made a coupla bad turnovers down the stretch, a most uncharacteristic CP game. Booker was phenomenal (42pts on 17-28), clearly he was the work horse tonight, despite foul trouble, despite a phantom no-call that kept him from fouling out, then another, then another, the refs refused to let Booker leave! Ayton was a monster on the boards and effective at rim defense, but didn't get into the offensive flow (the difference betw CP and Cam Payne), Crowder and Johnson had moments but not enough. Payne was 50/50, Bridges wasn't effective tonight. 

Asst:to. Bucks 22/5; Suns 18/17; a Chris Paul squad with 17 turnovers?

I felt coming into this series that the home team would win every game, its just a time honored NBA truism that big stars get the calls at home and role players play better at home, this felt like one of those matchups, felt like the refs would play along (and I think they have). 

But after the Bucks finish here in Game Four, I think the winner of Game Five can win Game Six. The Bucks can win in Phoenix and then finish it back home in Game Six or they can shoot their wad in Phoenix while the Suns savvy vet the championship right out from under them back in Milwaukee. But I think the Bucks are better situated to make that happen. I think the Bucks are the better team.

Game Five: Bucks 123-119 Suns 

The Suns surged right away to a 32-16 lead early in the 2nd; Bucks countered with a 26-10 run to tie the game at 42. It was the Bucks' game pretty much from then on. Bucks were kinda pounding the Suns for most of the 2nd half, Suns cut it close late in the 4th, but couldn't grab the lead, even though the Bucks were missing FT's late. Holiday was great, Middleton was great, Giannis was just kinda B+ Giannis tonight but that was plenty. This is the kind of balanced attack that Marty Schottenheimer preached of. 

CP was not getting the calls in the 1st half, felt like he was playing for contact and the refs weren't buying it (surprised to see CP still not getting the calls in the 4th). Booker was good (40pts on 17-33, still the work horse but he wasn't quite as reliable as last time) but he just couldn't get past the Bucks' big 3. Crowder was money (he's the third Morris twin: if he's hot in 1st he's gonna be good tonight; if he's cold in the 1st, he better be getting some rebounds), Johnson, Bridges, Ayton were fine, Cam Payne was kinda 50/50 (some nice, some not so nice), no one played badly and no one reflects ill in the box score. When a good team plays well and still loses handily, that's a bad sign. 

Holiday announced early that he would be making his shots tonight and he did (27pts on 12-20 and 13 assts and he brought the defense the whole night); Holiday was a monster tonight, I thought he was the man of the match. Middleton was great, too, (29pts on 12-23), knocked down tough shots, bodied hard with Booker when need be, an all round confident reliable filler upper performance. Giannis was cool (a very easygoing 32pts/9boards/6:0 asst:to; casually brilliant tonight), he's taken the next step: he can exert force without dominating the possession, distorting the defensive rotations or interrupting anyone else's rhythm. He is effortlessly useful and never detracts from anyone (that's his super power: Giannis is still Giannis no matter who his teammates are, the better they are the further he'll carry them).  

Asst:to. Bucks 23:8; Suns 26:11. Suns did not get blown out on this tonight, in fact I recall so many bad Bucks giveaways in this game that I'm kinda shocked they only had 8 turnovers. Stocks: Bucks had 8, Suns had 14. Team rebounds: Bucks 37, Suns 35. Suns shot 13-19 from 3pt, 10-11 from FT line. The Suns didn't do anything badly in this game, the stats are pretty even, but they were never in this game in the 2nd half (even as they chipped away at the lead, I never thought they were gonna pull off the comeback the way the Bucks did in Game Four). 

The Suns, man, I think they've peaked. You look at this box score and nobody had a bad game, everyone contributed and it wasn't enough. I think CP had two good games in him, perhaps one more but that's not enough now. I think Booker has three good games in him, but going for 40 tonight didn't get the W. Ayton pitched in a very comfortable 20/10 but it didn't get them a single lead in the 4th quarter. Johnson and Bridges and Crowder were fine, even Cam Payne has a nice looking box score. The Suns playing well did not win the game at home (did not get the calls at home), that's not good.  

The Bucks have announced themselves as the better team. They did that at the beginning of Game Three, the end of Game Four, and in Game Five it was snatching the lead before halftime when it felt like it might be a Suns blowout. 

I initially had Suns in 7, gotta flip that to Bucks in 6. I think this is it.

2021 NBA Finals (after 1 game)

The Bucks finished off the Hawks after Trae Young was hobbled by an ankle injury (thought he moved well and made plays in Game Six but he couldn't score at his usual level and that was the end of that).  The Suns finished off the Clippers after it became clear that Kawhi Leonard was not coming back (Paul George was masterful, but missed FTs in Game Two and a weird scoring drought in Game Four was the end of the Clippers). 

I gotta say I was skeptical of the off-season moves these two teams made last summer. The Suns picking up Chris Paul just felt like CP's next move, not something the Suns were doing to make a big difference. The Bucks paid a massive amount to bring in Jrue Holiday, a guy that I always thought was a nice but probably overrated because of his injury history; my thought at the time was why not pay half as much for Denis Shroder to perform the same job? Well, clearly I was wrong about Paul, he is without a doubt the reason the Suns are here; and Holiday goes a long way to making the Bucks a deeper, more reliable squad. So, belatedly I gotta say: these were the two best moves of last summer, right?

In Game One, Giannis played despite fears that he'd be out (*) but he looked strong, if not terribly decisive. What jumped out at me early on was the way the Bucks were switching Brook Lopez; the danger there was not how he marks Chris Paul and/or Devin Booker, but that switching him high takes him away from Deandre Ayton and that's not gonna work. You can't have Jrue Holiday or PJ Tucker marking Ayton down low, that has to be Lopez. So I'd be surprised to see the Bucks doing that high switch going forward. I think they'll slip into a zone-type D with Tucker chasing Booker and Holiday marking Paul. We'll see. 

Paul was magnificent in the 3rd quarter of Game One and that was the difference in the game. Also, the way he kept finding Ayton rotating to the basket just piled on the lead. Man, I've been so blown away by Ayton this post-season, he's been phenomenal and gives the Suns a whole new dynamic that they didn't have all year long. I thought Cam Johnson was great, too. Booker was fine, the fact that he didn't have to take over is where the Suns are at their best (when Booker goes for a quiet 25, that's when the Suns destroy people). Crowder wasn't great but defensively he put in good work and he's still a necessary part of this squad. Mikeal Bridges played hard and is a good looking rotation guy. Dario Saric got hurt which isn't a killer except that it suggests they'll be needing more minutes of Frank Kaminsky, which is not a good thing. The Suns are in a good rhythm, they know who they are and I think they're a good bet to win 3 of the next 6 games. 

The Bucks started off okay but lost their way early in the 3rd quarter and it highlighted exactly what their problem is: their offense bogs down from time to time and they lose their flow. The makeup of their Big 3 is awkward: Giannis seems like "the guy" but he's such a unique attacker that its hard to build around him, Middleton is a filler-upper but not enough of a playmaker and Holiday is too spotty a shooter to be a CP-type ball control guy. Don't get wrong, there's loads of talent there and they can still win the Championship. But when they start spinning their wheels, there's no clear way to get back on track. Indeed, cranking up their defensive intensity is probably their best way to get offense and that might be their be strategy. 

The Suns are probably the better team but they're definitely the more cohesive team. The Bucks need  to find their defensive identity (Lopez needs to mark Ayton, Holiday needs to clamp down Paul, otherwise a zone-ish defense would give them a rebounding edge) and they need to make FTs. Can they do it? Ehh, I still think they push the Suns to seven games but you gotta like CP and Booker locking it down at home. 

My pick was Suns in 7 and after watching Game One, I'll stick with that. 

(*) Look, that hyper extended knee moment Giannis had in Game Four against the Hawks looked awful but there's two ways to look at: 1) on the one hand, what you saw lasted a half a second, not that big a deal; 2) on the other hand, Giannis is a 7' 300 pound man and perhaps it only takes a half a second to end his career. I was never worried, that kinda stuff happens all the time, it feels weird--and it could be dangerous--but generally it's not a thing and bad ass athletes just move on. 

2019-20 NBA Pre-season (Central Division)

Bucks
Out:
Nikola Mirotic, Pau Gasol, Tim Frazier, Malcolm Brogdon, Jon Leuer, Bonzi Colson
Brogdon is gonna be tough to replace but the Bucks can still be really good without him (but, ouch, they're gonna miss him). Mirotic had his moments but didn't do much in the playoffs; strangely took a lesser deal to go back to Europe. Gasol was a nice playoff presence but I don't remember him playing at all for the Bucks last season. Frazier is a nice 2nd/3rd string PG but with Giannis and Middleton handling the ball so much, this is probably a position where they can afford to be thin. I always kinda liked Leuer but I reckon he didn't fit their plans. Colson had good buzz coming out of NCAA, perhaps getting out of Milwaukee will be the break he needs.

Re-signed:
Brook Lopez (4yr/$52m), George Hill (3yr/$28.8m), Khris Middleton, (5yr/$177.7m)
Middleton was a must: what I thought I'd see in the Bucks is that it is Giannis that gets everyone else going but actually Middleton gets Giannis going and then everyone else falls in to place; they're gonna miss Brogdon but with Middleton and Giannis there's enough to get past most teams night after night. And while the Bucks were appreciative of Lopez and Hill for their unexpectedly good seasons last year, giving them big raises for the same performance has got to feel a bit dispiriting; do you keep the continuity or do you allocate the big dollars for sexy additions? (They chose continuity; not bad, I still think they've got a great shot at finishing 1st in the East)

Signed:
Robin Lopez (2yr/$9.7m), Wesley Matthews (1yr/$5.2m), Thanassis Antetokounpo (2yr/$3.1m), Dragan Bender (2yr/$3.5m), Kyle Korver (1yr/$2.6m), Pacers 1st rd pick (top 14 protected 2020-2025), 2025 2nd rd pick, future 2nd rd pick, trade exception (something in the $20m range, no?)
(Another Lopez and another Antentokounpo? Dang!) Robin allows them to maximize their Lopez output (something I always thought would work for the Morris twins, too), which bodes well for their bench play. Matthews and Korver are both kinda limited at this point in their careers but they know how to play and I like adding hungry vets to a good team. I was never a Dragan Bender fan, whenever I've watched him I've never been able to figure out what that guy does on the court; if the Bucks have the right role for him, perhaps he'll finally find himself (at that price tag, he's worth a look, I reckon). That trade exception should give them room to move at the deadline, if they're willing to spend money. That 1st rounder will probably be around #20 I reckon, but more picks are always welcomed these days.

2-way and Exhibit 10 signings:
Cam Reynolds, Frank Mason
I can see Mason being a legit 3rd string PG in this league but I don't know Reynolds.

Over/Under (57.5): I got the over
I have them finishing 2nd in the East (and getting to the Finals). This team feels like they won't be as good as last year and certainly not any better. But they are so driven by Giannis that if he gets better than the team will, too. They've got enough vets and enough continuity to close out games and though losing Brogdon will be tough, I think any Giannis growth will offset that. They're still really good.


Pacers
Out:
Bojan Bogdanovic, Darren Collison, Davon Reed, Kyle O'Quinn, Tyreke Evans, Wes Matthews, Cory Joseph, Thaddeus Young, 2020 1st rd pick (top 14 protected), 2025 2nd rd pick, a future 2nd rd pick
I kinda love Bogdanovic, that's a tough loss, and Young is one of the more underrated players in the league. And though the rest make up a nice bench, I think they can get by without them. This team is all about Oladipo.

Re-signed:
Edmond Sumner (3yr/$4.2m guaranteed), Alize Johnson (guaranteed the final year of his current contract), Aaron Holiday (team exercised option; 1yr), TJ Leaf (team exercised option; 1yr)
Okay, I don't have any great opinions on any of these guys. But if the team likes them, then re-up them.

In:
Malcolm Brogdon (4yr/$85m), Jeremy Lamb (3yr/$31.5m), Goga Bitadze (4yr/$5.7m guaranteed), TJ McConnell (2 yr/$7m), Justin Holiday (1yr/$4.8m), JaKarr Sampson (1yr/$1.7m), Walt Lemon Jr, Three Heat 2nd rd picks (2022, 2025, 2026)
Brogdon is a good addition, a solid reliable PG that will keep the offense moving and won't turn the ball over. Lamb is nice, might be a nice fit here. I've heard intriguing things about Bitadze, could be a rookie to keep an eye on. I love TJ McConnell, the best 2nd string PG in the league (and that's not insignificant). Holiday, Sampson and Lemon are worthy roster fillers.

2nd rd draftees, 2-way contracts, Exhibition 10:
Naz Mitrou-Long, Amida Brimah (1yr/$1m)
I dunno, if the team likes 'em, then go for it.

Over/Under (46.5): I'm going under
I kinda like this team but if Oladipo misses any time at all (and he's slated to start the season injured), I just don't see how they make up for his production. Nice cast around him but they need Oladipo to be a big star to really take off. I've got them 5th in the East (but I don't see them moving on in the playoffs).


Pistons
Out:
Jon Leuer, Jose Calderon, Wayne Ellington, Kalin Lucas, Zaza Pachulia, Glenn Robinson, Ish Smth, Isaiah Whitehead, 2020 2nd rd pick, 2021 2nd rd pick, 2024 2nd rd pick
Ehh, a lot of okay players, nobody irreplaceable.

Re-signed:
Luke Kennard (team exercised option; 2yr)
Okay, now's the time to take a leap.

In:
Sekou Doumbouya (2yr/$6.7m), Tony Snell, Derrick Rose (2yr/$15m), Markieff Morris (2yr/$6.6m), Tim Frazier (1yr), Christian Wood, four Cavs 2nd rd picks (2020, 2021, 2023, 2024)
Doumbouya is an interesting rookie but hard to imagine he'll be good enough to really elevate this squad. Snell, Rose, Morris and Frazier are nice reliable vets (but, again, hard to see them as difference makers) and I always liked Wood, hope he gets some run finally. 2nd rd picks are like birthday cards from a weird uncle: hey, you never know, it might be good.

2nd rd draftees, 2-way contracts, Exhibition 10:
the rights to Deividas Sirvydis, Louis King, Jordan Bone
I dunno. I liked Bone in the NCAA, we'll see if he can step up.

Over/Under (37.5): I have them over
I don't love this team but they don't suck, this is a perfectly slightly above average squad. I have them 8th in the East (and dispatched quickly in the post-season). Not a good team, not a bad team but a sturdy one.


Bulls
Out:
Brandon Sampson, Rawle Alkins, Robin Lopez, Timothe Luwau-Cabarrot, Walt Lemon Jr., Wayne Selden, Antonio Blakeney, 2020 2nd rd pick
When a bad team doesn't come together, you don't really lament the guys that leave in the off-season even if you feel like they might've been helpful. I still kinda like Alkins and TLC and even Lemon and Blakeney, but the Bulls aren't worried about those guys not being around.

Re-signed:
Ryan Arcidiacono (2yr/$6m), Shaq Harrison (2yr/$4.5m)
I like these guys, both reasonable deals and gives them staggering depth at PG (which ain't bad, I guess).

In:
Thaddeus Young (3yr/$41m), Daniel Gafford (4yr/$6.1m), Tomas Satoransky (3yr/$30m), Luke Kornet (2yr/$4.5m), Coby White (4yr/$24m)
They already have Zach LaVine and Otto Porter to build around, so these deals are minimal cast building moves and I kinda like all of them. Young is underrated, Gafford had good buzz in NCAA, I really like Satoransky and I'm warming up on Kornet (very efficient player). If LaVine and Porter take a step forward and White is an ROY candidate, then they could take a real leap.

Also
Luol Deng signed a 1-day contract to retire
Gonna retire his jersey?

Over/Under (32.5): I got them over
I don't love the squad but its not bad, they've got a lot of guys primed to take a step forward next year and while they don't have the veteran savvy that knows how to get W's, I think they'll be good enough to take that step forward this season. Could be a bust out team but I don't see that. I don't have them in playoffs, for example, but I think they get 36 wins, which is good progression for where they've been the last few years.


Cavs
Out:
JR Smith, Deng Adel, Jarron Blossongame, Marquesse Chriss, Channing Frye, David Nwaba, Cameron Payne, Nik Stauskus
Getting rid of Smith is a great and glorious thing for the Cavs. I thought Nwaba really had a chance to be a good player in Cleveland, but didn't work out. As for the rest, oh well.

Re-signed: (none)

Newly signed:
Darius Garland (2yr/$13.1m), Dylan Windler (2yr/$2m), Kevin Porter Jr (2yr/$3.3m), Alfonzo McKinnie, Tyler Cook, Dean Wade
Okay, we're going full-on youth movement here.

Over/Under (24.5): I'm going under
Tristan Thompson, Brandon Knight, Jordan Clarkson, John Henson, and Matthew Dellavedova all come off the books next summer leaving the Cavs an extra $66.8m (yeah, I busted out the calculator for that shit!) to throw around. Factor in that Kevin Love's $28.9m contract could probably be had by anyone willing to throw a bunch of fresh young bodies at the Cavs and you're looking at a total rebuild. Also, their 1st rd pick next year is top 10 protected (then converts to 2nd rounders) meaning they are eager to suck this year. So if the Cavs are unexpectedly good, don't be surprised if management suddenly makes moves to get worse. This actually isn't a bad looking roster for now but everything points to them tanking hard this season. Bet the under!

2019-20 Milwaukee Bucks

2018-19: 60-22 (Conference Finals runner-up)
Draft pick: 30

Signed for next season ($107.4m): Giannis Antetokounpo, George Hill, Eric Bledsoe, Tony Snell, Ersan Ilyasova, DJ Wilson, Donte DiVincenzo, Pat Connaughton, Sterling Brown
Without Middleton and/or Brogdon, this will be an entirely different team. They've still got Giannis, Coach Bud and a decent collection of supporting guys but bringing back Brogdon is absolutely essential and replacing Middleton will be the challenge of the summer. Lopez, too, would be nice to have but he may have shot himself into a bigger contract than Milwaukee can afford.
Otherwise, this is a pretty good bunch of foils for Giannis.


This summer's free agents: Khris Middleton (player option), Nikola Mirotic, Brook Lopez, Malcolm Brogdon, Pau Gasol, Tim Frazier
I suspect Middleton is gone. Here's the deal: all year long I thought the Bucks were Giannis first, everyone else tied for second; but it dawned on me in the playoffs that it is actually Middleton first, Giannis second and then everyone else third. So they've got to get a guy that pushes Giannis's buttons just right and then rebuild the attack. I don't think it's Middleton, I think he's got a bigger payday waiting him elsewhere.
Mirotic, on the other hand, probably won't be back. He was nice in theory and over the course of a full season might give them what they got from Lopez last season. But I suspect he'll be somewhere else (Grizzlies, Lakers, Clippers).
I figured Lopez would be too expensive for them but I think they'll bring him back (and probably regret it).
They've got to bring back Brogdon. Whatever he asks for, just give it to him and get back to work.
Gasol was a locker room presence for the playoffs, not a player for the long term. I guess Pau can still play some but I'm not really sure where he goes (Warriors or Raptors, I'd guess).
I kinda like Frazier as a 3rd string PG, not top of the priorities but a nice pickup if there's still money left at the end of the shopping spree.


At #30 I'd grab Carsen Edwards (Purdue) and hope he's as smart as he looks. Let him work out his rook year just watching the interplay between Giannis and Brogdon. That'll be all the coaching he'll need.


Next year's lineup:
PG Brogdon, SG Bledsoe, SF Giannis, PF Snell, C Lopez with Brown, Frazier, Hill, Connaughton, DiVincezo, Ilyasova and Wilson off the bench. (Could use some size, like Greg Monroe?)

If Giannis is healthy this could be the best team in the East. But they'll need to get the supporting cast in line as quick as possible. Even still, they'll be running up against the Sixers and Raptors all year long.

2018-19 NBA Conference Finals

In the West, the Warriors have moved on. Not much to dissect: the Blazers just aren't as good as the Warriors and since Lillard never looked quite right (busted ribs?), the Blazers never had a chance in this series. They probably should've pulled out Game Three but they ran out of gas late and that was that; yeah, I get that Meyers Leonard balled out in the first half, but that was found money and they needed to not rely on him in the second half. Blazers had a hell of a year, a lot to be proud of. They'll be losing a raft of supporting cast this summer (Aminu, Kanter, Seth Curry, Hood and Layman) and they're already over the cap, so they'll need to be creative to put together the right roster next season (if they could package Evan Turner and/or Meyers Leonard into a coupla lower-priced bench players, they'd only need to stay healthy to have a chance in the post-season).

In the East, I am puzzled on the eve of Game Six. My pre-season pick to come out of the East was the Raptors and I reiterated that going into the post-season. But going into this final series I switched to the Bucks because they just seemed to have a better sense of themselves and, well, the Bucks were the best team in the league all season long. But they blinked and suddenly they do not look like themselves and that makes tonight's game extremely intriguing. 

Honestly it's that Games Three and Four were reversed from the likely reality that makes this all so weird. If I told you that after winning the first two in Milwaukee that the Bucks looked flat in Toronto and the Raptors bench came alive and put a good whooping on the Bucks, well, that wouldn't be such a shock. And if the next game was a rock fight that turned into a double overtime struggle that the home team Raptors pulled out to even the series, well, that wouldn't be such a shock either. But the fact that it happened the other way around doesn't make much sense. Game Three was the double OT slugfest (and rather shockingly dull game, incidentally) while Game Four was the Raptors onslaught, that...uh...makes you go, 'Wait, what's going on?' Did the Raptors just take hold of this series? Is this a home team wins every game series? 

I assumed the Bucks would turn it around back home in Game Five but they did not. Indeed, I was amazed at how close it was and that the Bucks still should've won it considering that Giannis never got his groove going, Middleton didn't shoot the ball (not that he didn't shoot well, but that he didn't shoot at all!), Bledsoe had moments but no consistency, Connaughton was kinda awful, Lopez wasn't much help, Hill had a coupla nice moments but nothing that sustained, I thought really only Brogdon looked like himself out there. Meanwhile, the Raptors controlled the flow by the end of the 1st quarter, they were getting the calls (I was blown away at Siakam and Gasol getting calls that Giannis was not getting), and their bench shined out (Van Vleet! Gotta say fatherhood looks good on him) in front of a stunned Milwaukee crowd. So wtf just happened? The Raptors did everything right, had all the luck and the Bucks did everything wrong...and the Bucks were still in it late. So are the Raptors the better team asserting dominance? Or are the Bucks the better team and just not getting lucky? 

The Bucks go into Game Six on their first 3-game losing streak of the season and the Raptors are one home win away from the Finals. What's gonna happen? I have no idea. If Giannis doesn't get the calls tonight, the Bucks are finished; but if he snaps back into his game, I think the Bucks can still win the next two games. Giannis looks shook and Kawhi, well that dude never looks shook. I gotta think the Raptors are gonna take it tonight simply because you would expect the home team's supporting cast to to be more effective, but it could all come down to the refs. Look forward to this game as much as any NBA game since opening night!

2018-19 NBA Conference Finals

Blazers - Warriors
Damien Lillard is balling, CJ McCollum has had some of that Lillard shine rub off on him, Rodney Hood has had a resurgence, Enes Kanter is jitterbugging around the basket pretty good right now, Al-Farouk Aminu is a pretty good defender, Mo Harkless and Evan Turner have had moments, Seth Curry is a neat thing to have off the bench in this series, even Zach Collins showed up and gave good minutes in the last round (and did you realize Meyers Leonard had 30 FGA against the Nuggets? He took thirty shots?).  I like the way the Blazers play and when Lillard is commanding the attention, everyone else has room to have a good game, so this team really can hang with anyone.

Unfortunately, the Warriors are better than the Blazers even without Durant. Curry has been balling out again lately, Draymond is reborn (*), Klay was great on D against the Rockets (only so-so on offense), Iguodala looked as good as he's looked in a while and Kevon Looney looks like a legit part of the offense again; but Durant is gone (at least for a while), Cousins is gone (right?), Jerebko is nice but hasn't quite found his spot yet, Livingston has not looked good on either side in a while, Bogut is just for a few minutes at a time, McKinnie and Cook seem like nice guys. But Curry and Klay and Draymond are back in charge and that is, I think, a beautiful thing. All the Warriors need.

My gut was to go Warriors in 5 because I just can't make the case that the Blazers can win overall, so why not go ahead and finish them off quickly? But I'm not sure that follows because Lillard alone is dangerous. But...I feel like the Warriors will be up 3-1 after 4, so I gotta go Warriors in 5 (wouldn't be shocked if the Blazers won Game One). 


Raptors - Bucks
My pre-season pick was Raptors over Warriors, which was also my prediction going into the post-season, too, so it seems like that's what I'd go with here. Nope. The Bucks are better than the Raptors. I like the make-up of the Raptors...if they'd had more experience together. Gasol, especially, looks lost out there at times as do Ibaka and Green, throw in that Siakam is in a brand new place in his career and it seems like Lowry still hasn't quite calibrated all of his teammates to the game plan. They lived off a deep bench all season long but that's more or less gone now, so it all comes down to how quickly this core can come together. The fact that that's even something to worry about makes them no match for the Bucks.

Giannis is the undisputed center of the Bucks universe. When he's on, the rest of the supporting cast has room to make do their thing and contribute. If he's getting the calls, the Bucks are not gonna be beaten by the Raptors. If Giannis struggles to find his game, the Buck supporting cast is not enough to win, so the Raptors must stop Giannis. I don't see how they get that done. I don't see how the Raptors outperform Giannis, therefore I cannot make the case for the Raptors to win. I want these both of these matchups to closer but I just don't think they are. The Warriors and Bucks are better than their opponents. So, like the Warriors, I will take Bucks in 5.


(*) Draymond can get thrown out of any game at any given moment as reliably as anyone I've ever seen--even Rasheed Wallace had more sense of himself than this. As we see the refs increasingly get yelled at, dismissed or conferred with after every play, does Draymond shield a lot of other players to yap or does he close down the refs' desire to hear anything from anyone? Does he make a ref more or less reactionary? And how does that play out for everyone else on the court? I dunno, but I'll be watching that for as long as Draymond remains in these playoffs.

2018-19 NBA Playoffs (Conference Finals)

Bucks over Celtics in 5 (I said Bucks in 7)
The Celtics were a mixed-up team all year long, went on a 5-game winning streak in the playoffs, quickly dispensing of the Pacers before laying one of the worst smackdowns the Bucks have seen all year in Game One...felt like they'd gotten it together and were ready to go on a run...but there was no run. The Bucks got their game back together and easily whipped the Celtics through the next four matches. The first game was an aberration, the next four were more realistic.

The good news for the Celtics: Jaylen Brown looked really good and Marcus Smart is poised to be a fan favorite for the foreseeable future; the bad news: Jason Tatum is kinda dull, Aaron Baynes provided no spark (as he did last year), Al Horford played out of his mind in Game One but never came close to sustaining that through a complete series, Gordon Hayward is still a mystery, as is Robert Williams, and Kyrie Irving (and Terry Rozier and Marcus Morris) are probably gone for good. Going forward for the Celtics the F rotation (Hayward, Brown, Tatum) is solid and big man rotation (Horford, Baynes, Williams) is promising, I suggest they draft nothing but PGs with their three 1st rd picks and aim for a free agent like...uh...maybe Rajon Rondo...or Isiah Thomas.

Warriors over Rockets in 6 (I said Warriors in 7)
I was really shocked by last night's Warrior win, I just assumed the Rockets would show up and blast through the Durant-less Warriors at home but did not happen. The Warriors were pretty good, they came to play and returned better than the Rockets could give. Klay has played well on defense in this series but Game Six was his first notable shooting night, Curry was invisible in the 1st half but dominated the 2nd, Iguodala was good (he's been up/down throughout the series), Livingston was okay (he had been kinda bad, I thought, against the Rockets), Andrew Bogut was not too bad (I think Looney is more useful in every way, I just don't see why Bogut is playing as much as he is), Looney had his moments, Quinn Cook was an interesting change of pace (though not much more than that), and Draymond was excellent (their MVP in this series, I'd say). The Warriors without Durant are still the best team left (which is another fascinating detail about the upcoming off-season). The Rockets just couldn't muster enough offense even though Chris Paul had one of his best games as a Rocket (*).

The good news for the Rockets: they've still got James Harden and Clint Capela for 4 more years and reasonable deals with PJ Tucker, Eric Gordon and Nene. The bad news is they still owe Chris Paul $120m. Ouch! And they're already over the salary cap for next year so they've got moves to make but every single one of them will be unnaturally expensive. They've still got a promising core, all they gotta do is beat the Warriors.


And two Game Sevens on Mother's Day!

I can see the Sixers-Raptors game being a blowout, one of these teams is going to be vastly better than the other and I think we'll know by the start of the 4th quarter. When the Sixers play good team defense and everyone is knocking down shots, I think they're the best team in the league--no shit: I think they could beat the Warriors!--but the chances of them doing that more than once every seven games is not likely. They've already played really well in Game Two and Game Six, so the chances they give three badass efforts against the same squad just does not seem likely to me. That said, if the Raptors get punched in the mouth, this team could absolutely fall apart: Lowry, Ibaka, Gasol, Green and Siakam are all totally capable of disappearing and Kawhi can be the lead dog but he can't carry a team all by himself, so if the Sixers are hitting on all cylinders, then the Raptors falling completely flat is a definite possibility. But I think the Raptors hitting shots and controlling the action is more likely than the Sixers doing that. So I'll take the Raptors to finish the series.

I had the Blazers in 7 coming in and I can see that happening. But I think the Nuggets are slightly better, Jokic is maybe the most dependable player in the league right now, and Denver has a kooky home court advantage, so I'll switch and go with the Nuggets here. These two teams are so evenly matched that the slightest variation in game play could produce a decisive result: say, Will Barton gets three steals or Al-Farouk Aminu gets 4 blocks or CJ McCollum picks up a cheap foul right before halftime--those are the little things that could be the tipping point. That's how close these teams are! If the Blazers shoot well from 3 and keep the Nuggets off the offensive glass, they can win; if the Nuggets shoot well from 3 and minimize turnovers, they can win. We'll see. Jokic and Lillard are probably my two favorite players to watch right now, sorry that one of them has to lose. I'll take the Nuggets to move on and face the Warriors.


(*) 7 minutes left, Chris Paul has 25 points. They've just shown a graphic that Paul and Harden have never scored 30 in the same game. I thought right then, 'Paul's not getting 30 tonight.' Sure enough: he squirted loose for an easy layup, otherwise never came close to scoring in the last 5 minutes.

NBA Game of the Week

As a regular blogging possibility, I thought I'd take up a Game of the Week.  I'll set the scene for the match (probably a Saturday or Sunday game), offer notes and/or observations on the gameplay and final stats, give a wrap-up of what went down.  I'd like to see as many teams as possible, although there are/will be teams I don't particularly care to watch, I'll probably get in all 30 at least once.

Bucks (4-5) at Heat (5-4)
While most pundits had the Heat comfortably making the playoffs in the East, just how the Heat would remake themselves post-Lebron was what we'd been waiting to see.  After 9 games it feels like we've seen it: adding Deng and McRoberts to a core of crafty veterans (Chalmers, Andersen, Cole, Haslem), moving the focus of the offense over to Bosh, picking up good rookie minutes from Shabazz and Ennis to go with whatever they can get out of D Wade is how they they plan to restore the production that took its talents back to Lake Erie.  Bosh is playing like an MVP and the rest of the team is doing what it needs to do, probably all comes down to Wade's back and just how far Bosh can go.  It's a long season but they look to be in the hunt for a home playoff series.

The Bucks only won 15 games last year though the roster looked to have enough veteran grit to at least outplay the Sixers and pick up a few W's.  Oh well, they picked up Jabari Parker for their troubles.  Rookie Jabari to go with another year of Giannis and the youth movement is looking pretty good.  Add in Larry Sanders back from injury and that is a formidable front court, especially in the East.  That said, the Bucks could vastly improve this year and still never even sniff a playoff spot.  So far they're hanging, won 5 of their first 9 games, will they hang around .500 all year (which would surely get them into the playoffs)?  I doubt it but we'll see.  Giannis and Jabari are legit, the sooner they figure out how good they are, the sooner they get to getting good.  Can they test the savvy Heat on their homefloor?

I'll take the Heat to handle their business.

1st: Heat 23-19
2nd: Heat 23-19

Heat are without Wade and McRoberts tonight, testing their depth against the upstart Bucks.  Bosh is so impressive, takes over when he wants, can get anywhere on the floor, can score from all over and still be a serious shot blocker at the other end.  I'm impressed with Ennis and Shabazz, both really know how to handle themselves out there, play within themselves and the team concept.  With Wade taking games off (you know he will), the rooks should probably get plenty of playing time.  What's gonna happen to Mario Chalmers?  He's a solid veteran PG by now but it just doesn't feel like he fits the Heat somehow.  The Heat up by 8 at the half,

Bucks are fun to watch, man, just a bunch of dudes running around crazy out there!  Love to watch Giannis attack the rack, his sense of the game continues to mature, his body control is Durant-like.  Jabari looks really confident, good to see, reminds me of a happy smiley Paul Pierce.  There was a great Reddit piece last week about Brandon Knight: a guy broke down every possession and measured Knight's highs and lows.  Basically it was an equal amount of amazing highs and head-scratching lows.  I'm seeing it here tonight: one play he's Jamal Crawford getting shots and setting people up, next minute he looks like Tim Conway on basketball.  His upside is still strong but his downside can be scary.  On the other hand the Wolters-Mayo-Bayless back court was not inspiring confidence.

3rd: Bucks 26-13
4th: Bucks 27-25

Where'd the Heat go?  Bosh really flailed after halftime.  All of a sudden the Heat could not penetrate the Bucks D.  Gotta say: that Sanders-Jabari-Giannis-Bayless-Knight defensive unit is pretty good, a lotta long arms and quick feet out there.  Were the Heat missing Wade's scoring or McRoberts' nifty passing?  Missing both couldn't have been good.  The Bucks limited their turnovers and were able to grind out possessions better than the Heat could.  In the final minutes, Knight nailed three straight 3's (the last one with Bosh in his grill!), kept the Heat from clawing back into it.  Good win for the Bucks, these young kids hang on every moment of goodness.  Now they find themselves 6th in East, gives them something to hold on to.

Disappointing loss for the Heat.  Probably figured a Sunday night game at home against the upstart Bucks was in the bag.  But without the Wade and McRoberts, the lack of depth was exposed.  Now they find themselves tied for 6th with the Bucks, between the Hawks and the Nets.  I fully expect the Heat to win more games than they lose, I'm not quite ready to say that about the Bucks.  The Heat have the proper stars, supporting cast and coach, but they also have 'senior moments' and don't feature a great deal of depth.  The Bucks have exciting youth, which almost never wins in the NBA, but the guard play is going to be spotty all year and they've got a lot of changes to go through, basically a team of trade bait.

Bucks 81-74 Heat

Any insights in the stats?  For the Bucks, Kendall Marshall failed to get off the bench, John Henson only played 3 minutes, Jared Dudley only played 10, Ersan Ilyasova played 12.  Nagging injuries, coach's doghouse, matchup concerns or do these guys represent the first up on the trade block?  Personally I'd keep Henson, think his game is really underrated, but Marshall is too inconsistent, Dudley a bit past his prime and Ilyasova is superfluous if Middleton is gonna get the forward minutes...Do the Bucks want Brandon Knight back next year?....Giannis was only 3-7 from the FT line, hate to see a young player lock in bad habits.

For the Heat: 39 mins for Bosh, 37 for Deng, 35 for Chalmers, only 7 for Haslem (how much are they paying him?  How many years on that deal?)....Not sure that relying on big minutes from Williams or Cole is gonna work out for the Heat in the long run....Bosh really had trouble against that young front court, 2-17 from the floor, couldn't hit the 3 or consistently get to the FT line.  Deng was only 3-11 from the floor....Without Wade to take up some defensive pressure and McRoberts to whip the ball around, those old legs for Miami are gonna have trouble against tough young rosters like the Bucks.  The Heat will get better throughout the season, there's still time to tinker.