2017-18 NBA Playoffs (2nd round)

West
Pelicans-Warriors
The Pelicans were the best team in the 1st round, destroying the Blazers in every way for four straight games. Not much depth (man, Solomon Hill was kinda awful and Ian Clark is more hindrance than help) but their main rotation looks like the best in the league right now. The Warriors don't have anything to stop Anthony Davis (Draymond is not the answer), might lose Klay Thompson's brilliance if Jrue Holiday keeps up his torrid defensive work, won't deter playoff Rondo (doesn't matter who his opponent is), and could be matched if Mirotic can keep up his hot hand. The Warriors never looked into it this season, coasted at the outset and then seriously coasted after it was clear the Rockets were gonna take the top spot. With Durant, Steph, Klay and Draymond they still have enough to be the best in the league but they haven't shown that yet. Against the Spurs Durant was Durant and Klay was terrific but outside of a nice showing from JaVale McGee, the rest of the cast didn't show: Steph hasn't played in almost a month, Draymond is more bluster than brilliance lately, Iguodala is a shell of himself and Livingston is merely competent. I thought the Spurs would wake them up but the Spurs without Kawhi aren't much of a team. So they've continued to coast. The Warriors were my pre-season pick to win it all and my pick again at the beginning of the playoffs, obviously I think they are (or can be) the best. But I haven't seen them play like the best in so long and outside of their main four guys, I have no faith in their bench (and only marginal faith in Draymond or Steph right now), and they did not get the 1st round wake up call I thought they needed. This is tough because I was so impressed with the Pelicans and we're only now seeing what Anthony Davis can do. I gotta go with the Warriors in 7 under the assumption that this is the wakeup call they need (but, man, if Holiday shuts down Klay....whew, this series gets very close).

Jazz-Rockets
I've never had faith in the playoff capabilities of James Harden or Chris Paul and I think without those two at their best the Rockets don't have much else to go on. Trevor Ariza, Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon are solid and have moments of going above and beyond but I haven't been blown away by any of them lately. Gerald Green can fill it up but he can also get over his skis and Joe Johnson frankly doesn't fit the way the Rockets play and I think won't contribute much. I like Clint Capela as much as the next guy but he needs a lot of service from Chris Paul to be really effective and PJ Tucker is a dirty work guy, not a game changer. You may think that after the way they dusted off the Wolves with some truly sub-standard performances from Harden and Paul that my thesis is actually already disproved; but I say no, that just shows what a mess the Wolves are. The Jazz in that sense are the anti-Wolves: they play as a team, they know their roles and no one overdoes it. On their end I'm a little worried about Rubio hobbling out of their last game against OKC, it is Rubio and Ingles as the big brothers that create the framework for Donovan Mitchell to succeed. Favors and Gobert can easily counter Capela and keep Harden honest on the inside. (And I can't help noting Alec Burks lighting it up in his brief appearances in Games One and Six; he's been there so long and fallen so far out of favor, you know he wants a chance to gets some work in) So it comes down to shooting: if the Rockets shoot the lights out, they should win easily; but if they struggle from the perimeter, the Jazz have a real shot. Some are pointing to the regular season dominance Houston exhibited over Utah but I would point out that all four of those games were early in the season before the true emergence of Mitchell, so I don't think they're representative of who these teams are now. I had OKC beating the Rockets in the 2nd round (that was my pre-season pick and my pre-playoffs pick, too), so I'm open to the idea that the Rockets won't move on. My gut is the Jazz aren't quite ready to do it but since this is all about the Rockets and not their opponent, that doesn't even matter. The Jazz just took out OKC--who I already thought was better suited for the playoffs than the Rockets. So I'll take the Jazz in 6. I think Harden and Paul flounder, the Rockets have no second option and the Jazz play their game and succeed.


East
Bucks-Celtics (Game Seven)
The home team has won every game so far. I predicted as much and so I'm not shocked by this development. The emergence of Jaysun Tatum and Jaylen Brown flanking Al Horford has been the framework for the Celtics--and it's a good one! Adding in Marcus Smart gives them a little more grit, should make 2-3 plays that cement the lead. Baynes will reliably contribute. The high risk/reward wild cards are Marcus Morris and Terry Rozer: if they just play hard, they'll be fine but if they try to do too much, they could shoot the Bucks back into the game. The Bucks are Giannis...and I dunno, some other guys. Khris Middleton has played well, Malcolm Brogdon has been good, Tony Snell and Tyler Zeller have been fine but in a Game Seven I don't see them as difference makers. And the surprise contribution of Thon Maker in Milwaukee will not translate to Boston. Eric Bledsoe hasn't been great, not sure that he makes any great improvement in the final game. The Bucks have one move they can make and that is to maximize Jabari Parker. Parker has been good, if inconsistent so far, but if he blows up tonight, he can make the different for the Bucks. Ehh, I'm betting that doesn't happen. I'll go with the Celtics.

Pacers-Cavs (Game Seven).
The Cavs go as far as Lebron drags them. If Lebron gets that vacant look in his eyes, then the whole stadium will feel it. If he's scuffling, if he's passing instead of attacking, if he's lingering on the bench instead of playing his regular 45 minutes, everyone will know and the Cavs will clench up. The Pacers will be liberated and they will run wild. That's the scenario for a Cavs loss. The scenario for a Cavs win is Lebron doing everything and doing it better than the entire other team. If the Pacers just play a smart, consistent game, they will put a lot of pressure on Lebron and that's the very dangerous place for the Cavs: if Lebron has to do it all by himself and he comes up short....man, he ain't gonna be back with the Cavs next year. I don't know who wins this game. I guess I'd go with the Cavs but the nightmare scenario is brewing.

NBA Western Conference Finals

Game Seven, the two greatest words in all of sports. I had the Thunder in six, which should've worked out but Durant and Westbrook played wild down the stretch, while the Warriors regained their shooting touch. Feels like the Warriors are back, they've got the momentum and the Thunder are backpedaling. But I'm sticking with the Thunder! Don't get me wrong: if Klay and Steph break the record for 3's in a playoff game again, the Thunder don't have much of a shot. But I'm betting the Warriors stumble tonight and the Thunder reclaim the momentum.

In Game Six, I kept waiting for Waiters or Foye or Morrow to make a play or two, I think that's all it would've taken to secure the victory. Instead, Westbrook became turnover prone and Durant kept forcing shots, leaving their teammates to stand around and watch. This is why they lost so many games in the 4th quarter this season. (Their 4th quarter struggles are basic: everyone else's defense tightens up and the Thunder's does not, a step back on both ends of the court) Easy to blame the big stars for the loss in Game Six but I'm gonna go ahead and blame Coach Donovan instead. He failed to rotate Morrow in to get him touches throughout the game, he didn't give Foye enough minutes and he turned his back on Kanter, who was actually effective shooting the ball. It was incumbent on Donovan to remind his big stars to remember the contributions of their teammates and the way to do that was to be more effective in his subs. That becomes less of an issue in Game Seven, when it probably will come down to Durant and/or Westbrook being the hero.

As for the Warriors, its easy to think they're back, that they've shaken off the rust and returned to form. But, except for Klay (who has been pretty magnificent all through the post-season) and Iguodala (whose defense has been superb), I'm not really seeing it. Steph was still tentative to get shots at the basket, Draymond is still being goofy (and one technical foul away from missing a game), Barnes has actually been pretty bad on offense (not bad on D), Livingston and Speights (outside of one good shooting night) haven't given much at all. And you're telling me that the key is Bogut? The Warriors beat people all year long because they can shoot the lights out and pile on plenty of points at a moment's notice. That can still happen, to be sure, but unless it happens, I'm not sure they're the better team.

I think OKC gets over their butterflies and puts the pressure back on Golden State. Unless Klay and Steph are perfect, I think the Warrior swagger might get them into trouble. Westbrook is relentless, he just needs to find his teammates again and Durant just needs a solid shooting night to put them over the top. Don't be surprised if Coach Kerr tightens up and Coach Donovan makes all the right moves. Thunder in 7.