2023-24 NBA Playoffs (Conference Finals)

East

(Game Five) Cavs 98-113 Celtics

Yup, gentleman's sweep. Sounds about right. The Cavs have a weird summer ahead: do they trade Donovan Mitchell (likely won't re-sign next summer) or Darius Garland (highest paid player on the roster)? Do they trade Jarrett Allen (kinda ugly behind-the-scenes report on him) or figure out how to play him with Evan Mobley? Does bringing back Isaac Okoro revolve around any of the potential trades above? Is there anyone that wants Georges Niang (liked him in Philly but he just doesn't fit in this lineup)? For a recently rebuilt team with good young talent that made the quarterfinals, the Cavs have more questions than answer going forward--which is not to say that they'll be bad next year. If they can navigate the landscape, they might be awesome, but they've got some work to do.  

(Five) Pacers 91-121 Knicks

(Six) Knicks 103-116 Pacers

(Seven) Pacers 130-109 Knicks

The Pacers looked so bad in their three losses, it's almost hard to remember that they actually won this series. And, even then, well, I mean, the Knicks had nobody left to play by the time Game Seven rolled around. But the Pacers handled their business by shooting the lights out in the 1st half of Game Seven; the Knicks went on a run after halftime, but the Pacers countered, restored the lead they had at halftime, then when Jalen Brunson went down with a broken hand (after OG Anunoby broke down almost immediately), and that was that. The Knicks had a nice season but injuries absolutely wrecked them--and Brunson, Donte DiVincenzo. Josh Hart and Isiah Hartenstein still almost got them to the next round. Knicks fans should hold their heads high today--and I haven't thought that since the mid-1990s. I think they'll move on from Bogdanovic (clearly not a Thibs fave), I think they'll lose Hartenstein (OKC ought to take a run at him), I think Alec Burks passed his Lakers audition with flying colors, they've got a big decision to make about re-signing Anunoby (man, he's gonna want long term money that his injury history turns into a tough sell), and not sure Precious Achiuwa makes it back either. So as hard as this team worked, I can see a lot of turnover going into next season and while it'll be good to get back all the injured guys, I can see them making big moves (Randle, Robinson could be on the way out) and looking kinda different next year. 

West

(Five) Mavs 104-92 Thunder

(Six) Thunder 116-117 Mavs

Game Six was the flip of Game Four: OKC had a nice but not overwhelming lead for most of the game, but the Mavs perfectly timed their run and stole it late. The Mavs defense impressed me: slowing down arguably the best offense in the league for 5 straight games (eh, the Mavs kinda mailed in Game One) was not something I thought they could do. I loved this OKC team and I expect them to look pretty much the same next year. Listen to me, OKC: ignore the haters and do NOT trade Josh Giddy! Don't do it! SGA and Chet and Giddy look like they've been playing together their whole lives and I think breaking them up just because the Mavs played unexpectedly good D and got crazy scoring from bench players is no reason to give up on the squad that finished #1 in the West this year. I suggest taking a run at Isiah Hartenstein and Nic Claxton, keep an eye on the availability of Isaac Okoro, Derrick Jones Jr, and Bol Bol, go ahead and take Zach Edey (Purdue) at #12 (and/or trade back for future picks) and if they're in the reclamation biz, why not give James Wiseman one more try? They need rebounding, I think the inability to get second chance opportunities put too much pressure on their offense and the Mavs stepped up into it, sucking the life out of OKC at precisely the wrong time. I still like this OKC squad as constituted by they've got to add some size this summer and I think they can upgrade their interior without making any trades.

(Five) Wolves 97-112 Nuggets

(Six) Nuggets 70-115 Wolves

(Seven) Wolves 98-90 Nuggets

Weird series: I can't recall a 7 game series where all the games were blowouts. The Wolves overcame a 20-point deficit in Game Seven, riding a 3rd quarter wave all the way to the conference finals. Jamal Murray didn't seem fully healthy to me, Michael Porter Jr just never got going, Aaron Gordon and Caldwell-Pope just didn't get buckets and though Christian Braun pitched in nicely, he didn't get buckets either. I love Jokic and I thought he was generally great but the supporting cast wasn't there and the Wolves defense put too much pressure on him. What do the Nuggets do this summer? If I was the Nuggets I'd look into what they could get for Porter (how about to Blazers for Brogdon and Robert Williams?), he's a nice spot up shooter but he clearly just can't do anything else. Otherwise they're probably just looking for vets ring-chasing and check-cashing on the way out, like Gordon Hayward, Kyle Lowry, Doug McDermott, Thaddeus Young, Robin Lopez (any of those names getting you excited?). And they might lose KCP and/or Reggie Jackson, too, so I think that bench behind the core of Jokic-Murray-Gordon is gonna get a little skimpier. I love Jokic, but he's looking like a 1-term Prez (had a lot of those lately). 

Conference Finals

Pacers - Celtics

The Pacers are a nice team, good depth, not bad on defense, but they go as their leader, Tyrese Halliburton, goes and sometimes Halliburton doesn't really get going. In the four wins against the Knicks, he was great; but in the three losses, man, he sucked--and sucked in all the ways you really don't want your all-star PG to suck. That said, the Celtics are just better than the Pacers, so prime Halliburton probably doesn't get more than 2 wins in this series. As for the Celtics, I'd give Porzingis the first 2 games off, but I'd like to see him play in Game Three (especially if the Pacers take a game in Boston) or definitely by Game Four. I think the Celtics can beat the Pacers without him, but even still, he'll need to be in game shape by the Finals, so I expect him to play some in this series, even if the Celtics don't need him. You can count on the Celtics to have one truly lackluster performance, I'd put that in Game Three. I like the Celtics to win the first two at home, then give one away in Indy, but wrap it up in five. Again, I don't want to diss the Pacers, they're pretty good and they absolutely earned their way to the final four; but the Celtics have been doing this longer and they have better upfront talent (with or without Porzingis) and in general I just like the Celtics better anyway. Celtics in 5.

Mavs - Wolves

Oh, man, this is gonna be a rock fight. I think this goes 7 games, I think they're all close, and I'm only going with the Wolves because I think at the end of the day, they're tougher and more balanced. The Mavs bested OKC with a resurgence in defense that stymied one of the best offenses in the league--and if the Wolves think they're getting easy buckets, oh I don't think so. But nor will the Mavs. They won't Kyrie float like a butterfly on them, Luka will have a lot of length in his face even from deep beyond the arc and the shocking scoring skills of PJ Washington and Derek Jones will likely go back to dormancy against this attacking defense. I think the Mavs superior offense will win out enough to push this series, but I like the Wolves offense to survive the long series a little better. If the Mavs had another scorer that could be relied upon, maybe they could triangulate away that Wolves D, but I don't think the contributions they got against OKC will materialize against the Wolves. Tough series, hard fought games, I like the Wolves in 7.

2021-22 Pointless NBA Rebuild Idea

Yeah, couldn't help myself...here's the case for the rebuild no one saw coming: 

Nets get Karl-Anthony Towns, Jake Layman; Wolves get Pascal Siakam, Raptors 1st rd pick (#4); Raptors get Kyrie Irving

Nets get Chris Paul (sign & trade); Suns get James Harden

Nets get #7 pick, #14 pick, James Wiseman, Warriors 2023 1st rd pick, Warriors 2027 1st rd pick; Warriors get Kevin Durant

The Nets would shed their high profile talent and end up with: Chris Paul (fresh 3yr deal, I'd say something in the 3yr/$150m range(*)), Karl-Anthony Towns (3yr/$100m left on his contract), James Wiseman (still on rookie contract), #7 (I'd take Davion Mitchell (Baylor)), #14 (I'd aim for Josh Giddey (Australia)) and they'd still have Joe Harris (3yr), Deandre Jordan (2yr), Landry Shamet (expiring), Nicholas Claxton and Alize Johnson.  (Jake Layman gets bought out instantly) And I'd bring back Luwawu and Bruce Brown and--why the hell not?--Blake Griffin. And then they should go get JJ Reddick (run back the Clip show in NYC). They go from a veteran squad (full of grumpy show-offs) to a young squad (led by CP and KAT) over night but it would be much more stable and fun and they'd be building some real basketball culture instead of just being a bunch of media whores. And what's the point of indulging the Kyrie and Harden circus if they're not gonna show up in the playoffs? (**) 

Does this make the Nets more likely to win the 2021-22 championship? Well, I don't suppose it does--though if CP wins this year maybe you can talk yourself into it. But it does make them a more consistent and viable franchise going forward. Will they make any of these moves? Oh, good lord, of course not! They've got three huge stars, which is what we have told ourselves all teams need to win the Championship (of course, they....didn't win the....championship...but you know what I mean). For the Nets, these moves are designed to bolster the franchise for years to come rather than leaving it the hostage of self-absorbed media whores. But, then again, it is NYC--and the 2nd place team in NYC, at that!--all they know is media whores and making themselves available to that probably looks pretty good to the Nets. 

Would the Wolves be better off with Siakam and #4 instead of Towns? Well...no. But how about also sending D'angelo Russell (***) to the Pacers for Myles Turner and TJ Warren (Russell made an Eastern All-Star squad and he's a Big-10 guy from Louisville, is that enough cache for Indiana?). And how about shopping #4 to OKC for #6 and a future pick (of which OKC has a fistful); Jalen Suggs (Gonzaga) probably isn't the right fit with Edwards, they may well be better off moving back in the draft and trying to find more assets. Look, this is Edwards' team now and if they can move D'angelo Russell for anything, then at least they'd be fun to watch (and they wouldn't take the blame for Towns' lack of success any more). 

Would the Raptors swap Siakam and #4 for Kyrie Irving? My guess is fuck yeah they would! In a heartbeat! He's not Kawhi but the Raptor supporting cast is still really good and we all still believe in Coach Nurse (right?), I think the Raptors go as far as Kyrie's health carries them. Also, this pushes Van Vleet back into super-sub guy again, which is probably a more realistic fit (he'd be odds on for 6th Man, no?). 

Would the Suns trade CP for Harden? I bet they wouldn't want to but CP has a player option this summer, which I assume he'll decline, and if he'd rather be shipped to NYC then re-up in Phoenix than getting James Harden (Arizona State product) is certainly not a bad deal. Do Harden and Booker fit together? Sure, why not? 

The Warriors would be reunited with Durant, which would be massively expensive in the short term and kinda kills their rebuilding going forward. But unlike Brooklyn, Golden State has had massive success with their veteran lineup and if it costs a gajillion dollars and murders their future prospects, well....what do I care? (I feel like I speak for all Warrior fans when I ask that question)

Yeah, no way any of these moves happen, but wouldn't it be a fascinating curveball if the Nets suddenly went into a garage sale mode? They could if they wanted to.

(*) If I'm Chris Paul (or any aging but still solid badass) I would insist on a declining contract. Pay me big up front and I'll take less on the back side. So CP has a player option for $44.2m this summer in Phoenix. I assume he will opt out with the intention of going for more years. He'll probably want something like $150m over 3 years. In order to stay in Phoenix, he can't decline an option and then sign with the same team for less money and he wouldn't with a new team either, so he'll have to make north of $44.2m next year. Rather than go to $45, $50, $55, say, to hit $150, I think a $55, $55, $40 would be better. If in three years CP is no longer any good, then just give him his paycheck and let him move on because your team's gonna suck anyway. But if he can still play and your team sucks, they he has a better chance of getting to a better team. The declining contract promotes player movement, which isn't for everybody, but for a badass like Chris Paul, the playoffs are where you get the attention, the opportunity and the big big money. CP needn't give his heart to the team, he should give his heart to go deep in the playoffs e'ry year, no matter what team it ends up being with. 

(**) Is anyone in NYC impressed that Kyrie, Harden and Durant lasted a whole extra round longer than Julius Randle and the fightin' Thibodeaus? I doubt it. I'm not and I'm not even from NYC.

(***) How on fuckin' earth is Russell making $30m this season? How...how....does that happen? That dude has never done anything in the NBA and he's mostly been injured....how does he get a $30m deal?

Pointless NBA Trade Idea

Okay, right off the bat: last summer's whirlwind of trades and signings may have felt like the way of things to come, but I'd say quite the opposite. The players that moved were generally so high profile, so expensive that it more or less calcified the labor market probably through next summer. I'd be pretty surprised if we see many moves at this year's trade deadline because the buyers and sellers just aren't in sync at the moment. The teams that want to dump salary don't want to take salary back and the teams that want to thicken their rotations don't have the cap space or trade assets to make moves. In short, no one's got much room to move this season.

But it seems to me there is a potential method that could emerge: teams with lots of cap space could take on long-term salary instead of waiting for the summer to dig into the free agent class, which doesn't look so strong this year. So with that in mind:

Hawks get
Andrew Wiggins (4yr/$121m), Gorgui Dieng (2yr/$33.5m), Wolves 2020 and 2021 2nd rd picks; Wolves get Chandler Parsons (1yr/$25.1m), Allen Crabbe (1yr/$18.5m)

This is a long-term vs. short-term deal. This gets the Wolves off two big contracts and allows them to start rebuilding around a core of Towns, Culver, Okogie and Covington (who I would hold on to even though he'll likely be one of the hottest rumors out there). Obviously getting off Wiggins would be divisive but it'd save them a ton of money and giving up on a playoff run (eh, is there really any value in being 8th in the West?) would push them up toward a top five pick (is Daniel Oturu (Minnesota) a good fit?). So how do they re-build this summer? Well, the free agency market looks pretty skimpy, but Mike Conley has an ETO in Utah (where he hasn't been a good fit), which feels like a great vet to pair with Town for a year or two and if they could lure Evan Fournier to decline his option in Orlando, then right away they'd have something seemingly more reliable than what they've had with Wiggins and Teague (whom I'd trade for anything resembling a 2020 1st rd pick). Make no mistake: for Minnesota this is purely a salary dump but it would dump an awful lot of salary!

The thing about the Hawks is that their cap for next year is so small that they kinda have to spend money. So even if you think Wiggins is a bust and 4 years at that price is a boondoggle, that don't matter to the Hawks, they just need to lay some money out there. And personally I think Wiggins is actually a pretty good fit for them: he's been through the media ringer already and though his production leaves a lot to be desired, he's gonna play a ton of minutes in the next four years and the Hawks needs minutes.  Going forward he slides right into the Vince Carter slot. As for Dieng, he's another player that I find criminally underrated (I think Coach Thibodeau pretty much knee-capped his career) and that deal is not as bad as it looks--and, again, the Hawks got money to burn so who cares? Bring back Alex Len and that becomes the Hawks platoon at PF/C to back Collins and Fernando. As for the two 2nd rd picks, the Hawks need everything they can get and the Wolves get so much cap relief that it's worth it.

Obviously the Wolves don't do this is they truly love Wiggins (and I suspect they do) and even still it leaves them a lot of holes to plug in the off-season. But at least it gives them some money to make moves and clears out room for vets that like the look of Towns. As for the Hawks, they need everything and Wiggins, expensive as he is, will at least check SF off their list for the foreseeable future and adds reliable athleticism to an exciting but young team and I think Dieng (more of a baseline shooter type) meshes well with Collins and platoons nicely with Fernando. And it gets the Hawks up off the salary floor (oh yeah, they'd still have a shit ton of money to spend).

The idea here is for the Hawks to use their expiring contracts to get long-term depth and for the Wolves to get off their long-term commitments to get a new crew around Towns. I dunno, seems like it could work.

2019-20 NBA Pre-season (Northwest Division)

Nuggets
Out:
Isaiah Thomas, Tyler Lydon, Trey Lyles, Brandon Goodwin, Thomas Welsh, 2020 1st rd pick (top 10 protected)
Thomas didn't pan out, Lydon never found his footing in this rotation, I like Lyles but they didn't really need him and Goodwin and Welsh are gone, too, and that 1st rounder was redeemed for Jerami Grant, who would seem to be exactly what they need. No big losses here.

Re-signed:
Paul Millsap (team option; 1yr/$30.3m), Jamal Murray (extension 5yr/$195.6), Micheal Porter Jr (team exercised option; 2 yr)
Picking up the Millsap option was a surprise to me but the right move as it gives them continuity without taxing them in the long term. The long term money went to Murray, who had a solid post-season last year and it is always good to reward the talent and lock up the youth. And they get to add new talent that was in-house all along: Michael Porter Jr. Picking up his option is a confirmation of their belief that they've got something special (I'm eager to see it).

In:
Jerami Grant (trade; 1yr), Vlatko Cancar (3yr/$4.2m), PJ Dozier (1yr), Bol Bol,
They swapped a 1st rounder for Grant and given that I don't think that pick will be that great, it was the perfect move for the Nuggets. Grant will give them a freewheeling defender in the mold of their high octane offensive scheme. Bol is coming off a serious injury, not sure we'll see much of him, but getting him as a late 2nd rounder is ridiculous value, anything he delivers will be a bonus (and he might turn out to be really good as he was graded a top ten pick before last season).

Over/Under (52.5): I'm going way over
I think this team knows who they are, the big guys all got paid, the youngsters look promising, the altitude gives them an unnatural home court advantage and the coach knows how to handle it all. I got them finishing 1st in the West and getting to the conference finals (I also have Porter winning ROY and Coach Malone winning Coach of the Year).


Jazz
Out:
Naz Mitrou-Long, Tyler Cavanaugh, Raul Neto, David Stockton, Ekpe Udoh, Ricky Rubio, Thabo Sefolosha, Erik McCree, Grayson Allen, Jae Crowder, Kyle Korver, the rights to Darius Bazley, Derrick Favors, 2021 1st rd pick (top 7 protected)
Moving on from Rubio and Favors is gonna be the focus of the early part of this season, but otherwise these losses are rather minimal.

Re-signed:
Donovan Mitchell (team exercised option; 2yr), Tony Bradley (team exercised option; 2yr), coach Quin Snyder (multi-year extension)
I'm all about locking up Mitchell and Snyder long term, not sure what they see in Bradley, but the Jazz have always been big on holding on to their draftees.

In:
Mike Conley (trade; 2yr), Bojan Bogdanovic (4yr/$73.1m), Ed Davis (2yr/$9.8m), Emmanuel Mudiay (1/$1.7m), Jeff Green (1yr/$2.56m), Pelicans 2nd rd picks (2021, 2023)
All good! This is why people are excited about the Jazz this year! Conley is ready to be a on a good team again and the Jazz are going to be perfect for him. Bogdanovic gives them consistent 3-point shooting (and an unexpectedly good perimeter defender), Davis is good backup for Gobert, Mudiay is a distributor that should be a good fill in for Conley and Green has looked pretty great in pre-season. They made all the right moves to surround the rising core.

2nd rd draftees, 2-way contracts, Exhibition
Miye Oni (3yr/$4.2m), Jarrell Brantley, Justin Wright-Foreman, Stanton Kidd (3yr/$4.2m), Nigel Williams-Goss (3yr/$4.8m), Isaac Haas
I don't know any of these guys (but I gotta say: South Park was never the same after they killed off Isaac Haas).

Over/Under (53.5): I'm going over
This team is ready to blow up. And there's nothing better to do in Salt Lake City, so I fully expect this team to bringing it e'rry night.


Blazers
Out:
Evan Turner, Al-Farouq Aminu, Enes Kanter, Seth Curry, Moe Harkless, Meyers Leonard, Jake Layman
That's a lot of nice players but mostly 2nd string production, no huge losses but the accumulation clearly weakens their depth.

Re-signed:
Damian Lillard (extension; 5yr/$196m), Rodney Hood (2yr/$11.7m), CJ McCollum (extension; 3yr/$100m), Anfernee Simons (team exercised option; 2yr), Zach Collins (team exercised option; 2yr)
I'm a big fan of rewarding the players that gave the fans what they wanted and Lillard and McCollum did just that last year and deserve every penny they get; that said, this does hamstring the already hamstrung roster, but success deserved to be rewarded. Hood is a nice addition, I think he'll give them a little more scoring than Evan Turner (if a little less playmaking) at a very reasonable price point. Collins is ready to take off and, okay, I think we'll see this year if Anfernee Simons is worthy of all the hype (I think he will be).

In:
Kent Bazemore (trade; 1yr), Nas Little (2yr/$4.3m), Anthony Tolliver (1yr/$2.6m), Mario Hezonja (2yr/$3.7m), Pau Gasol (1yr/$2.6m), Hassan Whiteside (trade; 1yr), Moses Brown, Jaylen Hoard,
I've never been a huge fan of Bazemore or Tolliver and as great as Pau once was, he no longer is, so these moves don't appear to be a net positive. That said, I like Whiteside more than most and if he can establish a worthwhile defensive presence down low, it could transform their whole style. And I think Hezonja can (along with Hood) give them a decent playmaker to replace the underrated Turner. Whatever Little contributes is a bonus.

Over/Under (46.5): I got the over
They lost a lot, they didn't add much, so why am I going over? Because I don't think they have any moves to make, this is the team they got and they will ride it hard all year long. Does that make them a 50-win team? Well, the Blazers have flummoxed me over and over again over the years, I'm just expecting them to outperform because they always do.


Thunder
Out:
Jawun Evans, Ray Felton, Markieff Morris, Jerami Grant, Paul George, Deonte Graham, Patrick Patterson, Russell Westbrook,
Well, moving on from Westbrook is cutting ties to how this team has been run for almost a decade. Moving on from George is moving on from their last big move. Moving on from Evans, Felton, Morris, Grant and Patterson signals that their recent philosophy has simple not worked out. The house is freshly cleaned, what now?

Re-signed:
Nerlens Noel (1yr/$2m), Abdel Nader (guaranteed upcoming season), Deonte Burton (guaranteed upcoming season), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (team exercised option; 2yr), Terrance Ferguson (team exercised option; 2yr)
Nerlens never quite found his place in the league, he's one dimensional but he's really good at his one dimension (whispers are that he's an annoying weirdo in real life), I don't see him back next year so this is his audition for other teams (or becoming trade bait). Ferguson and SGA are the future and Burton and Nader are worthwhile players for now.

In:
Darius Bazley (4yr/$9m), Mike Muscala (2yr/$4.5m), Danilo Gallinari, Chris Paul, Justin Patton (2yr/$.5m), Luguentz Dort, Devon Hall, Clippers 2021, 2022, 2024, 2026 1st rd picks (rights to swap 1st rd picks in 2023, 2025), Rockets 2024, 2026 1st rd picks (rights to swap 1st rd picks in 2024, 2025), Grizzlies 2nd rd pick, Nuggets 2020 1st rd pick
Despite rumors that they are desperate to move Chris Paul (and Steven Adams), I think CP can be a great centerpiece going forward to shepherd the incoming rookies (and there are gonna be a ton in the next few years!). Furthermore, I think CP fits this team in a way that Westbrook didn't: namely, he'll keep the supporting cast active while Westbrook mostly left them standing around. I'm sure they're still trying to make big moves (throw Roberson and Shroeder in the trade rumors, as well), so this team will undoubtedly change a lot throughout the season. No telling what this team will be at this time next year. (Did anyone notice that they hired Dave Bliss as an assistant? Hmmmmmm.....that's a name I never thought I'd hear again)

Over/Under (31.5): I'm going way over
I think this team is lumpy and weird but there's enough veteran presence to keep the team straight and enough youth to keep mixing it up. Yeah, there are trades to make but I suspect this'll be a better-than-you-think kinda team, though I don't have them making the playoffs.


Wolves
Out:
Cam Reynolds, CJ Williams, Jared Terrell, Mitch Creek, Anthony Tolliver, Derrick Rose, Jerryd Bayless, Luol Deng, Taj Gibson, Dario Saric, Tyus Jones, the rights to Lior Eliyahu, Bojan Dubljevic
I'm a big fan of Dario Saric and I thought he fit what they were doing and Tyus Jones is a hometown favorite (but realistically no better than a 3rd string PG), but otherwise I think the Wolves can comfortably move on from these losses.

Re-signed: (none)

In:
Jarrett Culver (2yr/$11.9m), Noah Vonleh (1yr/$2m), Shabazz Napier, Traveon Graham, Jake Layman, Jordan Bell, Naz Reid (4yr/$6.1m), Jordan McLaughlin, Jaylen Nowell, Kelan Martin,
Coupla intriguing draft picks (Culver, Reid), coupla youngsters looking for another shot (Bell, Vonleh, Layman), coupla edge of the league guys (Graham, Napier), and some dudes I never heard of (McLaughlin, Nowell, Martin). Calling this a 'mixed bag' would really be overstating it, don't ya think?

Over/Under (35.5): I got the under
I still believe in KAT and Wiggins and Dieng, too, but they're paying way too much for way too little and that's a shame. I just don't see this team getting off the ground this season. (Look for Robert Covington to be the prized trade bait all through January) Next season will loosen up the cap and they'll have a sense of where to go with Bates-Diop, Okogie, Culver and Reid.

2019-20 Minnesota T-Wolves

2018-19: 36-46
Draft picks: 11,43

Signed for next season ($109.1m): Andrew Wiggins, Karl-Anthony Towns, Jeff Teague, Gorgui Dieng, Robert Covington, Dario Saric, Josh Okogie, Keita Bates-Diop
Truth is: the Wolves would love for someone to come along and sweet talk them out of Wiggins and Dieng, but I don't think that is happening in either case. And, fwiw, I still think Wiggins can be a really useful player, not a star, yeah he's still overpriced, but a perfectly reasonable 3-and-d guy that can play 2500 minutes per season in his sleep. Yeah, he's not as great as that paycheck and all those draft day expectations suggest, but the dude can play 45 minutes a night without complaint and that's not nothing, teams need guys that eat up innings and Wiggins is plenty good enough for that role (though probably more for some other team than the Wolves).
Towns is the big dog, the stud, the star, the all that.
Teague has one year left on this deal, I think he's still good at getting to the basket, knocking down 3's and keeping turnovers to a minimum; not my fave PG in the league but still a really good player that can go deep in the playoffs. (Is he 2020's Damian Lillard? Nah, prolly not)
I like Dieng and I think there are plenty of teams that he could play for. I can see a lot of those mid-range salary guys getting swapped this summer.
I'm a big fan of Covington and Saric and Okogie and I think the three of them are good for the rotation going forward.
Bates-Diop supposedly was a dude the Wolves loved going into draft day; but I don't remember seeing much of him, I think he was hurt a lot of the season and just ineffective otherwise. Seems built for a big improvement in his second season, we'll see.


This summer's free agents: Taj Gibson, Jerryd Bayless, Anthony Tolliver, Tyus Jones, Luol Deng, Derrick Rose, Cameron Reynolds
I can see them bringing back Taj Gibson and Tyus Jones. Gibson can probably get a better gig for himself, he did good work last year but he's a Thibodeau guy, I can see that being frowned upon. And Jones is a hometown favorite and though I don't think he's better than a 3rd string PG, I think he's maybe the best 3rd string PG in the league, so not a bad thing to have.
I just don't see them making room for Bayless, Tolliver and Deng. Maybe Rose but I suspect he can still get a good deal out there (Lakers?).


I saw a mock draft that has them taking Nasir Little (North Carolina) just head of PJ Washington (Kentucky) and Rui Hachimura (Gonzaga); now personally I prefer Washington and Hachimura to Little but the Wolves could probably use more wing scoring as opposed to another down-low bruiser (unless they're looking to replace Taj Gibson or if they trade Gorgui Dieng). So, I dunno, any one of those three seems about right at #11. At #43, Johntay Porter (Missouri) could be a steal. Or I can see them going continental with Adam Mokoka (France).


Next year's lineup:
PG Teague, SG Covington, SF Wiggins, PF Towns, C Gibson with Okogie, Jones, Saric, Dieng, #11, off the bench.
I feel like this lineup has to play the most efficient game in the world to win--they'll do that every once in a while but somehow I don't really see this team exploding in this current form. I like all these guys but I'm not sure they fit together, this feels like a whole roster of trade bait.

Pointless Trade Idea

Grizzlies get Kevin Martin (2 yrs/$14.3m (next year player option), Shabazz Muhammad (2 yrs/$5.1m); Wolves get Jeff Green (1 yr/$9.5m), James Ennis (2 yrs/$1.8m), a 2016 2nd round pick.

Watching the Wolves, I can't help thinking that Kevin Martin is just in the way of the maturation process for the young guys, he's not (yet) the type of veteran that wants to coach young players. He's still a decent scorer off the bench and if the Wolves think they can make the playoffs (not so crazy, those last two spots will have a lot of competition), perhaps holding on to Martin is the proper move. But a confident scorer off the bench is exactly what the Grizzlies need and exactly what they don't get from Jeff Green. Muhammad, too, is a conscious-free shooting machine, not exactly money with the shot but the kind of guy that should take to the hunker-down mentality of the Grizzlies. If Muhammad is gonna make it in the NBA, I don't think its in Minnesota, it could be in Memphis, where the do-your-job ethic might make a for-real player out of him.

Watching the Grizzlies, I can't help thinking Jeff Green is soooooo not what they need. Every once in a while he shines out but for the most part he hides from responsibility, which just doesn't match the rest of that team. In Minnesota, he would be in a position where he can let the game come to him without much pressure and every now and then can have a hero game. Ennis adds to the youth movement but comes with a little more intensity, he's had moments but he's also been bounced around. I wouldn't anticipate him getting big minutes in Minnesota but he also wouldn't have the baggage of Muhammad.

The Wolves shed 2 years of Martin and Muhammad for 1 year of Green and a flyer on another young (cheap) player in Ennis. This year for the Wolves is about playing time for Towns, Wiggins, Payne, Bjelica and LaVine; Martin gets in the way and increasingly Muhammad looks like the odd man out. The Grizzlies add one reliable scoring vet and an intriguing young player to add to the core of a solid playoff squad while giving up only a maddening vet and a youngster that wasn't gonna play anyway. The Grizzlies are taking on more reward than risk as Martin is still better than Green and Muhammad could be good; the Wolves are really just clearing the decks for this year and next. For that reason I'd suggest the Grizzlies throw in a 2nd round pick as well: Martin is bigger help now than Green, Muhammad has more potential than Ennis. Again, though, these two teams might be fighting each other for a playoff spot so this deal only makes sense when the Wolves have decided that the playoffs this year is out of reach. Come February this could be a do-able deal.

Pointless Trade Idea

Wolves get David Lee (1 yr/$15.5m) and a 2016 1st rd pick (Warriors); Hornets get Pekovic (3 yrs/$35m); Warriors get Williams (1 yr/$7m), Zeller (2 yrs/$9.5m/team option).

Wolves ditch the long term commitment to injury-prone veteran C that has the potential to hold up their future roster construction and the development of their fine young low post talents and replace him with one year of a crafty veteran who knows how to be a good team player (and show Towns how to score, Dieng how to pass, Payne how to maximize his abilities). More salary for them but no matter, they're plenty well below the cap. And since they're taking back more salary than they're sending out, the Warriors should add 2016 1st rd pick (or perhaps 2016, 2017, 2020 2nd rd picks). Seriously, I think Lee wold be great for the Wolves and with this one move the roster would be set. Put the team on the court and let them play. If Bennett/Muhammad or Martin/Budinger can be moved, pull the trigger; if a blockbuster for Rubio comes along, think it over; other than that, put the kids out there and let's see 'em.

Hornets get a long term vet down low on a contract that gets better as the cap rises,if Pekovic stays healthy at all, he's pretty good and defensively an upgrade on whatever the Hornets would've had anyway. They give up on a young big but the Hornets ability to develop players (or draft well in the first place) is not that great and Zeller is not so promising that he's untouchable or anything, whereas Pekovic is at least a reliable veteran. The Hornets would also be giving up on Marvin Williams, a poor free agent signing that hasn't been the replacement for McRoberts that they needed. Not a great deal but a reasonable one, Pekovic probably is better for them going forward than Zeller and/or Williams.

Warriors have got to get rid of Lee and they'd prefer to get absolutely nothing in return. Williams (I think) can be bought out, which is expensive but less expensive than keeping Lee; and Zeller is cheap enough to be flipped for a coupla 2nd rd picks. Might want Zeller: Pelicans need cheap young talent, Celtics might be able to coach Zeller into a nice player, Sixers always love big guys on rookie deals. Repeat: Warriors must get rid of Lee. What they get back is entirely secondary. In my version they need to do more work beyond this deal but its worth it. (2nd rd picks are a great way of looking like you're accumulating promising future assets when really you're dumping toxic current assets)

The #1 Pick

The Wolves are on the clock.  They'll be rolling into next season with the last three #1 picks on their roster (and hoping the next one is more like the last one and less like the previous one).  In this draft the top 6 prospects according to conventional wisdom are (in alphabetical order): Mudiay, Okafor, Porzingas, Russell, Towns, Winslow.  The order in which these top 6 go is still up in the air (I think). Who do the Wolves prefer?

Next year's roster currently has 11 guys at $56.6m.  Three largest contracts: PG Rubio ($12.3m next year, guaranteed $55m over the next 4 years), C Pekovic ($12.1m next year, $36m over the next 3 years); SG Martin ($7m next year, $7.3m player option the year after).  Rubio and Pekovic are solid ballers when they're not hurt....but they're always hurt.  The Wolves want Rubio to be the guy with PG LaVine off the bench and if he's healthy I think that's a solid platoon at PG (but not good enough to make worthwhile trade bait of Rubio).  The Wolves have to get Pekovic to play to get value out of that contract; if he can't play then he gives nothing and no one else wants that contract, if he can play he's a solid C (better than Kendrick Perkins) and maybe a playoff team thinks they can afford him.  Best case scenario in both cases is just good health.  For Martin I'd say the best option is to try and move him; when they got him they needed a veteran scorer, a guy that wanted the ball in his hand, wanted to score.  Now the Wolves are deep into their youth movement and Martin's contract (and game) are sclerotic to the new process at work.  Just one of those things, no one's at fault, the times have simply changes, Martin would be better off elsewhere (Mavs?  Wizards?).

The next two payroll spots go to the last two #1 picks: Bennett (going into his 4th year rookie option year) and Wiggins (the future, doesn't even matter what his contract is).  Bennett will surely get another contract after his rookie deal runs out but he may not be the coveted free agent you would expect a #1 pick to be.  This is basically his last year to shine out and rise above or roam the league in a Thomas Robinson-kinda way; physically gifted enough to be collecting an NBA paycheck (he's not Jan Vesely) but not good enough to make you think he could be a great player (upside: he's not Michael Beasley off the court; downside: he's not Michael Beasley on the court either).  My guess is Bennett is KG's pet project for the next 12 months, Garnett and Flip got one year to figure out whether they cut bait on Bennett or unveil him as the next big star of the Western Conference.  Wiggins, on the other hand, needs more touches, more plays, more focus, more coaching, more money, more everything.  He is the future of Wolves basketball on and off the court, give him whatever he wants.  And then give him some more.

Next is SF Budinger (1 year player option $5m).  I'm not sure whether Budinger has exercised his option or not.  This looks to be a busy summer of player movement not sure if that is good or bad for Budinger's options.  Frankly I think 1 year/$5m is all I'd want to pay Budinger.  So if he stays, fine for the Wolves, that's a decent deal; and if he moves on, the Wolves can feel good that one of their competitors has overburdened their salary cap.  (Sun Tzu would've approved)

Then comes the rest of the youth movement: PG LaVine, SG Muhammad, PF Payne, C Dieng all still on rookie contracts.  I think LaVine is badass in the making (reminds me of a better-scoring Carter-Williams), the next year should be all about giving him room to blossom.  Muhammad has had flashes of nice moments but has yet to string together a single solid season, with good health I'd expect a good maturation season out of Muhammad.  I was impressed at what I saw of Payne (if you lean back and squint I can see some PJ Brown in this guy, some Bo Outlaw, Theo Ratfliff), not much of a scorer but a big time disruptive defender and tough guy presence.  Dieng has generally impressed me too, I think he could become a really solid scorer down low.  If these guys all improve next year, then the Wolves will be pretty good.

PG Brown is set to make just under $1m next year.  He is roster filler: if there are enough bodies then Brown becomes the perfect guy at the end of the bench; if they are too many bodies, Brown's deal can easily be absorbed and discarded.

There are 4 currently unsigned guys from 2015's roster: PF Garnett, SG Neal, C Hamilton, C Onuaku. What's KG gonna do?  He's sucked bad for a coupla years now (gave the Nets a pretty good playoff run in 2014), he ought to retire and rumors are he'll smoothly enter the Wolves front office soon enough; but he's a hometown fave, got a player-coach kinda quality to him, might be the best roster filler in the whole league.  There's no reason for the Wolves to give him more than $1m for 1 year (and he ought to give every penny of that to a children's hospital or something); his presence on the court can provide nothing for the Wolves except just his presence.  An intangible like that is hard to value....but I wouldn't value it all that highly.  So let's assume Garnett comes back for 1 reasonably-priced victory lap.  I think Neal moves on (he's probably most useful to the Spurs, I have no idea if that matches up), his minutes look to be going elsewhere for the foreseeable future and I think the Wolves can do better in the MLE-level-veteran-presence area.  Hamilton actually has pretty good numbers in his limited action and at his price point I'd say he's valuable as bench filler (and trade filler).  Onuaku played this year on a "Hardship Exception" (never heard of it before, don't know what it is, but I notice the Wolves ended the season with a 16 man roster, clearly Onuaku was the extra man) and his very very very limited numbers are kinda scary: 12/14 FGA in 68 minutes over 6 games for $43k (K!  When was the last time you saw a K in a pro athlete's salary?).  I have no idea who he is or if he fits anything about anyone's roster, but the Wolves seem well-stocked at Center and since that #1 pick grades at C (hopefully C+, ha!), it is unlikely that Onuaku makes the cut.

They hold the draft rights to a Bjelica (Fenerbache) and Dubljevic (Valencia) and a coupla other Euros, but nothing in the numbers or relative gossip suggests that either are any more than trade bait.

They hold the #1, #31 #36 picks in the upcoming draft.  (I'll come back to #1)  The mock draft at NBADraft.net suggests that the prospects from #27-#34 are either PF or SG.  They look to be pretty deep at PF but if either of the LSU guys Martin, Mickey are there, I wouldn't be surprised to see them go to the Wolves.  Otherwise I say they'd go for an SG.  #36 is a great place to scoop up potential 1st rounders that slip for some reason (never know, someone like RJ Hunter or Delon Wright maybe) but it'll probably end up going on a Euro player or as trade filler.

The current Wolves depth chart for 2016: PG Rubio, SG Wiggins, SF Muhammad, PF Payne, C Pekovic with PG LaVine, SG Martin, SF Budinger, PF Bennett, C Dieng off the bench.  Add in #1 (C?), #31 (SG?), PF Garnett (or an MLE), C Hamilton, PG Brown and the Wolves got themselves a full complement.

Since they're expecting maturation years out of most of those guys, they're immediate future is hard to predict: some of these guys will have surprisingly good years, some will be surprisingly bad. Either way it's all gonna be a surprise.  And of course the veterans are relying on being healthy, the most unpredictable thing in sports.  So the Wolves are going to be unpredictable next year.  Good teams are generally pretty predictable, the unpredictable teams are the ones that aren't very good. But, they've got trade bait and some cap space, they could be players this off-season.

Trading away Martin would be best (for team and player) and that could happen, he's not horrendously priced, he could be a good 2nd string option on a good team.  I'd say Budinger opting out would be fine for the team, it would give them more cap space to stock the bench.  Trading away Pekovic would be the dream scenario or at least getting a full year of productivity out of him but neither of those look realistic to me (next summer the words 'stretch provision' start getting thrown around).  Unless a great trade opportunity arises, I think for the next year they have to commit to Bennett, Muhammad to see what they've got with those guys; ideally, they both mature nicely and become a regular part of the roster/rotation or they get dealt with next summer.  Likewise with Rubio: if a great trade comes along they can move Rubio but unless a great trade appears, they need him to be healthy and playing.

So who do they draft #1?  Personally I think Okafor will be better than Towns in general but for the Wolves specifically, I think Winslow is the best fit for them or maybe Russell.  The Wolves have pretty good depth at C and in a small ball lineup they'll get C minutes out of Payne, Bennett and (yes, even) Garnett.  So drafting another young C doesn't seem like the biggest need since they're still developing Dieng and they need to get minutes out of Pekovic.  My gut is that Towns will be a bit like Dieng on offense (though from the block rather than the baseline) whereas Okafor will be more like Pekovic (a filler-upper in the middle). Strategically I'm not sure whether a sub should be a complement or a contrast to the starter.  I think Okafor will be a better rebounder but I'm not sure either Towns or Okafor will be better than Dieng or Pekovic (when healthy), at least in the next 2-3 years.  If the Wolves could trade Pekovic then drafting a C would be fine, but he's an albatross that needs playing time.  Hate to say it but the Wolves picked a bad year to have the #1 pick: the top two guys just don't immediately fit with the program.  For the Wolves to draft either Towns or Okafor, its just to groom them for either teams, it wouldn't be to build a cohesive plan around them.

They could go for a PG but they run into the exact same dilemmas as before: a) not sure whether Russell or Mudiay is the better fit and b) they really need their veteran (Rubio) to actually play.  They need to give minutes to Rubio and I think LaVine is already the heir apparent to him, getting Russell or Mudiay would likely just stunt their growth.

They might as well go for scoring depth and for that reason I'd take Winslow.  Also, I think Winslow is the top prospect anyway.  I understand the adoration of Okafor and the promise of Russell but I think Winslow could be pretty good quickly and he could be great over time.  I like Towns but his offensive game is a bit one-note and his defensive game is nice but nothing superb; I like Okafor, great size, good hands, should be a good rebounder, but could be a bit of statue on offense, might not be quick enough to be an effective scorer; Russell has flash, looks to be a good passer, good shooter, but I'm not overwhelmed that he'll be successful at the next level; Mudiay has the experience of playing pro ball, of living the day in-day out grind of it, that alone should give hope that his rookie season could be very productive; Porzingas is a typical European: maybe he'll be awesome, maybe he'll suck, I dunno; Winslow is gonna get his shot, get to the line, he's got a ways to go to be James Harden but that model is working pretty well right now, in the right environment with some luck I think Winslow could be pretty good early and really good eventually.

I know, I know...you don't wanna hear this: I'd trade the pick.  Picking Winslow at #1 would be weird, they've got to take either Towns or Okafor.  But they ought to go for Winslow at a later pick.  I don't think the Lakers move up from #2 (like last year's Wiggins-Parker debate, I think the Lakers take either of Towns or Okafor that is there) and I don't think the Sixers move up from #3 (Sixers move UP?  They want Russell, think they'd settle for Mudiay if they had to).  The Knicks would love to move up from #4 but, man, they got nothing to trade.  If the Wolves can figure out a pick swap with Orlando at #5 or Sacramento at #6 where they end up with Winslow and a bunch of other stuff, I'd say go for that.  Not impossible, I guess the play is to figure out who wants Towns or Okafor enough to pay for it.

I got a feeling Okafor goes #1 to Minnesota (setting up a draft day trade).