2019-20 NBA Pre-season (Pacific Division)

Clippers
Out:
Angel Delgado, Garrett Temple, Wilson Chandler, Sindarius Thornwell, Tyrone Wallace, Danilo Gallinari, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, 2020 1st rd pick (top 14 protected), 2021 1st rd pick, 2022 1st rd Pick, 2024 1st rd pick, 2026 1st rd pick, (OKC holds 1st rd pick swaps in 2023, 2025),
With SGA and several 1st rd picks out the door, now is the time for the Clippers. There are a lot of nice players there but the new look will absorb these losses without much problem.

Re-signed:
Lou Williams (guaranteed contract through 2021), Ivica Zubac (4yr/$21m), Rodney McGruder (3yr/$15m), Patrick Beverley (3yr/$40m), JaMychel Green (2yr/$9.8m)
A lot of money (and draft picks) out but these are all good players who seem well suited for each other.

In:
Kawhi Leonard (3yr/$103m),  Moe Harkless (trade; 1yr), Mfiondu Kabengele (2yr/$4m), Paul George (3yr/$105m), Patrick Patterson (1yr/$2.3m), Amir Coffey, Terance Mann (4yr/$6.2m), Derrick Walton Jr., Johnathon Motley, Heat 2023 1st rd pick (top 14 protected), rights to Mathias Lessort
Okay...future is here. I like all these moves, I think they'll fit together, too (eventually).


Over/Under (53.5): I'm going under
Yeah, there's a lot of talent in and it seems to mesh. But George is already hurt and you know Kawhi's minutes will be monitored so the anchors of the rotation will appear and disappear throughout the season. Yes, I have the Clippers winning it all but I have them going into the playoffs as the 6th seed. I just don't think the regular season (especially road games and back-to-backs) will be that motivating to them. This team was built for the post-season, slogging through the next six months to get there might bore them.


Lakers
Out:
Lance Stephenson, Mike Muscala, Reggie Bullock, Tyson Chandler, Johnathon Williams,  Lonzo Ball, Josh Hart, Brandon Ingram, Isaac Bonga, Jemerrio Jones, Moritz Wagner, 2022 1st rd pick (unprotected), 2022 2nd rd pick, 1st rd pick swap to the Pelicans,
Well, the celebrated youth movement (Ball, Ingram, Hart, Wagner, Bonga) and a boatload of future draft picks have been swapped out for a veteran squad that has more top level talent, though fewer dirty work players. This is the Laker way, it was only a matter of time before they made this choice.

Re-signed:
JaVale McGee (2yr/$8.2m), Kentavius Caldwell-Pope (2yr/$16.6m), Alex Caruso (2yr/%5.5m), Rajon Rondo (2yr/$5.2m), Kyle Kuzma (team picked up option; 2yr)
Obviously Kuzma is a keeper (and since Ball, Ingram, Hart, Clarkson, Randle, Bonga, Wagner and Nance are gone, the only youngun they still have). But the rest? McGee has his moments but you gotta expect fewer and fewer of those. KCP and Rondo are reliable-ish vets and Caruso (the White Mamba!) seems like a real nice guy. Meh.

In:
Danny Green (2yr/$30m), DeMarcus Cousins (1yr/$3.5m), Quinn Cook (2yr/$6m), Jared Dudley (1yr/$2.6m), Troy Daniels (1yr/$2m), Avery Bradley (2yr/$9.8m), Dwight Howard (1yr/$2.6m), Reggie Hearn,
Green is now in charge of taking the blame for everything Lebron wants to deflect (he better study up on Chinese economics, I reckon!). Cousins is already out for the year (another year, another bad injury for Boogie). Dudley has long been overrated, Bradley is on the downside (but could be a useful perimeter defender), and Cook will know his role. Dwight Howard is the intriguing signing here: if he really is ready to play ball then I can see him having a nice year (but wildly better than what Tyson Chandler did last year? Ehh, maybe).

2nd rd draftees, 2-way contracts, Exhibition 10
Devontae Cook (1yr), Talen Horton-Tucker (2yr/$2.4m), Kostas Antetokounpo,
If these guys do anything, it'll be a bonus.

Over/Under (50.5): I got the under (but just barely)
I'm going under because I think wherever Lebron goes he brings highs and lows: I fully expect the Lakers to have a few runs where they look unstoppable and other stretches where they look like they'd get bounced in the NCAA tournament--that's just how Lebron teams roll. I think Lebron watches his minutes and throughout the season is selective about his effort. So even though I think Anthony Davis has an MVP season, the talent around him will come and go (better than the Pelicans but not vastly better) with an eye toward the post-season rather than the regular season. I've got them winning 50 games and finishing 5th in the West and while they could be way better than that, I just think they looking to the post-season will be their focus and 50 wins will suit them just fine.



Warriors
Out:
Kevin Durant, Marcus Derrickson, Andrew Bogut, DeMarcus Cousins, Jonas Jerebko, Quinn Cook, Andre Iguodala, Damian Jones, Shaun Livingston, Jordan Bell, Alfonzo McKinnie, 1st rd pick (top 4 protected), 2020 1st rd picks (top 20 protected), 2024 2nd rd pick, 2026 2nd rd pick, 2021 2nd rd pick, 2023 2nd rd pick, rights to Miye Oni
Wow! That is the core of many championships that just walked out the door. Durant is a Hall of Famer, Cousins is an all-time badass (though beset by injuries), Iguodala is maybe the most underappreciated player of all time, Livingston was a regular 6th man candidate for many years (though he was washed last season), Bogut was the original star in this champioship run (although not a big loss at this point), Cook and Jones and McKinney and Bell were the young core that was gonna grow with the team and even Jerebko had moments where he gave a real spark off the bench. And, oh by the way, Klay Thompson is out for the season. Yipes! That is an amazing amount of talent to lose in one summer--and they've given up a handful of 1st rd picks, too! Jeez, not since the old Florida Marlins back in the 1990s have we seen a team that just seemed to drain out so much skill.


Re-signed:
Klay Thompson (5yr/$189.9m), Kevon Looney (3yr/$15m), Draymond Green (4yr/$99.7m),
Re-signing Klay is a bit bittersweet considering that he'll be out for the year, but it needed to be done, so good deal nonetheless. Looney really became a part of their offense last season and gutted out a gnarly injury through the playoffs, good move to reward him. Signing Draymond now solidifies the Warrior core for the foreseeable future (and makes that light summer 2020 free agent class even lighter), big money that must kinda hurt going into what can only be a down year, but the right move.


In:
Jordan Poole (2yr/$4m), D'Angelo Russell (trade), Alen Smailagic (4yr/$61.m), Eric Paschell (3yr/$4.2m), Omari Spellman (trade), Willie Cauley-Stein (1yr/$2.5m), Glenn Robinson (2yr/$19.m), Alec Burks (1yr/$2.3m), Marquese Chriss (1yr), (rights to Lior Eliyahu), Ky Bowman, Damion Lee
The way last season ended for them (the end of the dynasty) there was pretty much no way that this off-season could be anything other than heartbreaking. Okay, starting at the level of low expectations, I think they did pretty good here. Plucking D'angelo Russell away from the Nets was a good move that preserves some offense (I think he'll be just fine for the Warriors, he'll score and make plays), getting Cauley-Stein and Spellman (two new toys for Draymond to play with) will give them a better ability to transition than the haters will acknowledge, Poole and Paschall were good draft picks and apparently they adore Smailagic and then Burks will give them a little offensive depth off the bench. Obviously this isn't the 5-straight Western Conference champs but considering what they lost, they still have plenty of talent left.

Over/Under (47.5): I'm going under (but just barely)
That o/u seems a little high to me--but only because I would assume betters would be more pessimistic. I've got them winning 46 games and going into the playoffs as the 7th seed, which would be a pretty great season for them with plenty more to look forward to in 2020-21.


Kings
Out:
Frank Mason, Alec Burks, Corey Brewer, Kosta Koufos, Troy Williams, Willie Cauley-Stein, BJ Johnson, Vanja Marinkovic
I'm a big Willie Cauley fan (re: apologist) and I think his absence is going to make more of a difference than the haters realize: I think his transition game created a lot of open shots for Hield, open lanes for Fox and chances to gamble on defense for everyone; I get that WCS is not a stat sheet filler-upper but at all the little things you don't notice, I think he was great and transitioning forward without him may be with them all season long. Otherwise, I'm cool with losing all these guys: Mason was nice but I thought a tad overrated, Burks and Brewer really didn't fit their needs, Koufos was nice but replaceable and Williams, Johnson and Marikovic are fungible commodities.

Re-signed:
Harrison Barnes (4yr/$85m)
I'm cool with this. I thought the trade for Barnes last season was the perfect move for them and, okay, the money is a little high but he's the guy they want, so why not pay him? Barnes is not merely the adult in the room, he's the right adult for them: solid pro, handles his business, performs his role on both ends and doesn't try to do too much, exactly the security blanket this youth movement needs.

In:
Cory Joseph (3yr/$37m), Trevor Ariza (2yr/$25m), Dwayne Dedmon (3yr/$40m), Richaun Holmes (2yr/$9.8m), Tyler Lydon (2yr)
Joseph is a reliable 2nd string PG, Ariza brings veteran smarts and big play ability, Dedmon will contribute down low and fits well with Bagley, and Holmes is great big man off the bench. (Hmmm...not sure what Tyler Lydon offers, but it's a non-guaranteed deal). If the youngsters all take a step forward then these vets will have room to make good contributions and this could be the shocker team of the season.

2nd rd draftees, 2-way contracts, Exhibition 10:
Kyle Guy, Justin James (3yr/$4.2m), Tyler Ulis, Hollis Thompson,
I think Ulis is kinda perfect off the bench for the Nuggets, not sure what he brings to any other team, unfortunately.

Over/Under (37.5): I'm going over
The ceiling of this team is amazingly high: if the youngsters each get a little better and each of those vets does what they're supposed to do, this team really could be awesome. I'm guessing it'll be a tougher road than that as they are in the tougher conference and arguably the toughest division. And, again, I know this sounds crazy but they're gonna miss Willie Cauley-Stein more than they realize. And what to do with Bogdan Bogdanovic might become a problem, too: in the final year of his deal they have to decide by January whether he's in their future or trade bait. Outside of that, I don't see any moves to make, so if it starts wobbly...well, it'll stay wobbly. I think they'll be good and in the contention for the 8th seed but I think they falter down the stretch. (That said, this team has perhaps the best potential to overachieve than any other team in the league)



Suns
Out:
Jimmer Fredette, Ray Spalding, George King, Dragan Bender, Jamal Crawford, Richaun Holmes, Troy Daniels, TJ Warren, Josh Jackson, DeAnthony Melton, 2020 1st rd pick (top 7 protected),
I still don't understand the draft day TJ Warren trade (uh, giveaway), guess they thought they needed the roster space; but I always found him to be an under appreciated scoring SF and won't be as easy to replace as the Suns suppose. I'm okay with giving up on Dragan Bender (I never could figure out his game: what does he do?) but I'm a little surprised they were so quick to cut bait on Josh Jackson (who didn't get his extension picked up by the Grizzlies either) or DeAnthony Melton (dude had some good moments, could've been good in a Suns uni). I forgot they even had Jamal Crawford and they had no real use for Holmes, I guess. The other (Fredette, Spalding, King, Daniels) are easy come/easy go guys.

Re-signed:
Tyler Johnson (exercised player option for 1yr/$19m), Kelly Oubre (2yr/$30m), Deandre Ayton (team exercised option; 2yr), Mikal Bridges (team exercised option; 2yr),
Johnson is perfectly reasonable 2nd string PG (although $19m is a steep price tag for that role). Rolling with Ayton, Oubre and Bridges is where the Suns are for the next 3-5 years and I think after years of poor drafts (like recently cast off Bender and Jackson), they've finally found a young core they can build around. I don't expect a lot of W's this season but the future looks better than it has in years.

In:
Jalen Lecque (4yr/$6.1m), Aron Baynes,Ty Jerome (2yr/$4.5m), Dario Saric, Cameron Johnson (2yr/$8.3m), Jevon Carter, Ricky Rubio (3yr/$51m), Frank Kaminsky (2yr/$9.8m), Cheick Diallo (2yr/$1.7m), Jared Harper
I'm a big Ricky Rubio fan and I think the scoring potential of this team will match his efforts, but defensively he doesn't bring much and no one else does either (re: they're gonna lose a lot of 124-116 kinda games). I'm also a big Dario Saric fan but I kinda think he's likely to be frustrated by losing and could turn inward (I already do not expect him to be back in Phoenix next year). I like Baynes, he'll bring some toughness and veteran smarts that this team needs; but he won't bring enough production to really make a difference. Cam Johnson and Ty Jerome are either part of their upswing in drafting or a return to the years of busts (I'm not optimistic about either of these guys, unfortunately). Kaminsky needs a second chance but I don't see what he brings to the Suns (or vice versa), this is one of the most puzzling signings of the summer. Diallo, too, is still young enough to turn into something and unlike Kaminsky, I think Phoenix could be a good spot for him to get some low-key minutes. No idea who Lecque, Carter and Harper are.

Over/Under (28.5): I'm going under
I think they'll score a lot of points but they'll give up even more night in/night out. Rubio, Booker, Oubre, Saric and Ayton is a nice starting five but the depth gets dicey after that and the lack of fit between any of these players does not suggest cohesion will be coming. I just don't see how this team wins games at all.

2019-20 Brooklyn Nets

2018-19: 42-40 (1st rd playoffs)
Draft picks: 27,31

Signed for next season ($38.3m-ish): Spencer Dinwiddie, Joe Harris, Caris LaVert, Taurean Waller-Prince, Jarrett Allen, Dzanan Musa, Shabazz Napier, Rodions Kurucs, Treveon Graham
The buzz is that they have their eyes on Kyrie Irving (or is it the other way around?) and if he arrives that'll be a huge change in the atmosphere in Brooklyn. The team is already heavy on ball-handling playmaking scorers (Dinwiddie, Harris, LaVert, Napier, even Kurucs and, of course, D'Angelo Russell), so he would displace a lot of their current roster in an effort to shape a supporting cast around him. This could work and if so the Nets will be a playoff team in the East again and a more dangerous one that they were this season. Or...this could tilt their whole roster, warp the whole team, throw off the vibe, nullify the coach, run up debt and generally just stink up Brooklyn like a big ol' fart....so, you know...either way.
But they did move the overly expensive and oft-injured Allen Crabbe in favor of a glue guy on a rookie deal--love that move! I love youth and Waller-Prince I think will give them a hard worker in the middle of their bench.


This summer's free agents: DeMarre Carroll, Jared Dudley, D'Angelo Russell, Ed Davis, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson
Carroll and Dudley are lovable vets but I'd let them both move on. Carroll is just further past his prime and Dudley is a locker room guy (which may or may not clash with Kyrie's demeanor). Either way I think they can get more production and/or future expectation out of these roster spots.
Personally, I would bring back Russell and encourage Kyrie to go to NYK instead, but even with Kyrie I'd bring back Russell because I think he's too important an asset to let him go even if he's no longer an ideal fit in your rotation. Been a while since sign-and-trade rumors have been so strong but that scenario makes a lot of sense for Russell.
Seemed like I was vet-bashing earlier but I'd bring back Ed Davis, I think that guy is still a really underappreciated down-low presence, defender and rebounder. (That said, I can see Enes Kanter here with Kyrie)
I never quite understood the relationship between the Nets and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson: at times he was the next great wonder, then he'd disappear, then they'd love him again, but now they're probably not gonna re-sign him...what gives? He's had moments of being a reliable defensive presence in the rotation but I'm not sure he's reliable enough offensively to stick on an NBA roster.


Drafting at #27 could yield them someone like Eric Paschell (Villanova) or KZ Okpala (Stanford). And at #31 I kinda love Carsen Edwards (Purdue) but I'm not sure they need another scorer off the bench and since they've had luck with foreign picks, maybe Luka Samanic (Croatia) would be more interesting here.


Next year's lineup:
PG Kyrie (right?), SG Russell, SF Harris, PF ?, C Allen with LaVert, Dinwiddie, Napier, Musa and Graham off the bench.

They've got a ways to go, gotta figure out Kyrie and D'Angelo, then build around whoever they end up with. Long way to go but Kyrie definitely gives them a shot at being really good.

2019-20 LA Clippers

2018-19: 48-34 (1st rd playoffs)
Draft picks: 48, 56

Signed for next season ($49.3m): Danilo Gallinari, Lou Williams, Montrezl Harrell, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jerome Robinson, Landry Shamet, Sindarius Thornwell, Tyrone Wallace
Good core to build around. One more year of Gallinari, two more years of Lou and then it's the youth movement + free agents from next summer on.


This summer's free agents: Wilson Chandler, Garrett Temple, JaMychel Green, Patrick Beverley, Rodney McGruder, Ivica Zubac
I wouldn't bring back Chandler but you know what? If the Clippers strike out in their attempts to get Kawhi or Kyrie or whoever they get their eye on, they could do worse than just bringing back Temple, Green, Beverley, McGruder and Zubac. That's actually an interesting mix of youth and vets, of bigs and ball handlers, of offense and defense. They played well together last year but they need another kick to get him going (although they looked better against the Warriors than the Blazers or Rockets did), but if it doesn't happen, they've got a nice pile of reasonably-priced talent at their fingertips.


#48 and #56 are probably best used for European talent to stash overseas.


Next year's lineup:
PG Gilgeous-Alexander, SG Shamet, SF Gallinari, PF Harrell, C Zubac with Williams, Temple, Green, Beverley, Wallace, McGruder, Robinson, Thornwell, and Zubac.

Not bad, doubt that's better than the Lakers, which would be really nice but I think they're on the edge of the playoffs in the West. Obviously they want Kawhi but they could stand to bring back JJ Reddick and took a run at Brook Lopez (or see if Al Horford is interested in opting out of Boston).

2018-19 Los Angeles Clippers

2017-18: 42-40
Draft picks: 12-ish, 13-ish
Signed for next season ($112m): C Deandre Jordan, SF Danilo Galinari, SF Tobias Harris, PG Austin Rivers, PG Lou Williams, C Boban Marjonovic, PG Milos Teodosic, SF Wesley Johnson, SG Patrick Beverley, PF Sam Dekker, PG Jawun Evans, SG Sindarius Thornwell

This summer's free agents: Avery Bradley, Montrezl Harrell, CJ Williams, Tyrone Wallace

I think they have to bring back Harrell, I doubt they bring back Bradley, Wallace is on a 2-way contract. No idea about Williams, might depend on whether Austin Rivers sticks around.

The Clippers likely fancy themselves built on veterans rather than rookies (that may depend on who their coach is) but they need depth everywhere so if they could score, say, Collin Sexton (Alabama) and Robert Williams (Texas A&M), that wouldn't be a bad way to go. Though if they could score the Kentucky pair (Knox and Gilgeous-Alexander) I think they should do that. Back-to-back lottery picks are an interesting novelty. Seems like they have twice the leverage if they want to trade one or both picks (or package one with Gallinari to clear even more cap room).

Worth noting that Jordan, Rivers, Teodosic and Johnson have player options. I think Deandre opts out and I think Rivers opts out (because I also think Papa Doc Rivers moves on, too). I expect Johnson to come back but I suspect Teodosic can get more than $6.3m if he opts out. So I expect the Clippers roster to look wildly different in 6 weeks or so. If Jordan, Rivers and Teodosic opt out, the Clippers will suddenly have a ton of money to spend. I'm not seeing them getting Paul George but they could offer Demarcus Cousins a hefty pile of cash. Likely they'll end up with something like Derrick Favors, Joe Johnson, maybe Ed Davis or Dante Exum to go with two new rookies. Or they run it back with the so-so team they had last year. I dunno, they're wide open at this point. We'll know more when opt-out day passes.

For now: I dunno. I think they'll be looking for a new coach soon. And I think they'll be looking to fill gaping holes in their roster preferably with big splashy superstars (maybe). Or if no one opts out they could be running back the same team (I bet that doesn't happen). For right now, I have no idea what the Clippers will be rolling into next year with.

Look What I Wrote

...just one week ago:

I like the Rockets to win game 5 tonight at home, but the Clippers will take game 6 back in LA.  Do the Rockets have a miracle comeback in them?  I doubt it and the chances that the Clippers have a catastrophic collapse in them seems to be dwindling.  (Dude, Chris Paul hasn't even broke a sweat yet...they don't need him)

Ha!  Man, I loves me some reality.  The miracle comeback, the catastrophic collapse...I was so close. Yes, the prediction was 100% wrong but...not really.  I had the right picture, I just caught it from the wrong side of the mirror.  Clippers done clipped when I felt like Blake in particular was ready to be the mega-star he's been preparing to be for so long now.  (Hate to even entertain the thought but Blake is developing a Eric Lindros-nish about him?  Nah, come on.  He just balled out against the Spurs, that dude can play)  I'm (still) in the camp that says Chris Paul can't win a championship: that guy just puts too much sweat into every moment of every game and the upward spiral of competition night after night is too much for him.  I love his game and I'd love to see him go deeper in the playoffs but I just don't think his style can overcome the rigors of a championship run (when he morphs into the Jamal Crawford role, he'll still have some great years, the hired gun thing might be his best chance to net a ring).

Do the Clippers blow it up?  Hell no.  First off they can't (that is blowing it up isn't really even possible much less likely); secondly, they've still got a great core.  They just need to coach up whoever they can get to play around them.  We complain about Doc the GM but frankly Doc the Coach has not blown me away in his Clipper tenure.  Making the most of the supporting cast has got to be the coach's job.  Doc the GM has made some bonehead plays so far but Doc the Coach was supposed to bail him out.  Big Baby Davis and Austin (Little Baby) Rivers had good moments in the playoffs but not that good, further down the bench brought nothing at all; Crawford is a big-game-every-4th-night-out kinda guy; Reddick sometimes falls into struggle mode where he just gets nothing done; Deandre does the things you need him to do but none of the things you want him to do; Barnes is most effective (I think) when the Clippers have a lead but generally not much help coming from behind.  Where's CJ Wilcox?  Couldn't make it work with Farmar or Raduljica?  Or Nate Robinson?  (Hey man, Nate is a crazy spinning top that makes weird things happen for 2-3 minute stretches, they mighta coulda used him in game 6)  The coach has to make the most of these ingredients and Doc doesn't seem so impressive to me.  Doc the GM is a bonehead, Doc the Coach is unimpressive, neither strikes me as a great argument for making drastic moves in the off-season.

If I'm not mistaken they do NOT have an MLE available to them this year (because they signed Hawes last year, that means they don't the MLE again until next year, right?).  They posses NO draft picks this year.  They've got a team option on Austin (Little Baby) Rivers but Doc the Dad emerges at this point and I just can't see them letting him go.  Hawes could be trade bait considering Doc clearly doesn't like him and while I think that's a movable deal, I don't see it netting the Clippers a savior off the bench.  So after they max Deandre (to my mind the right move in every way), they'll already be over the cap before they fill out their roster.  Pretty well seems like the Clippers will look pretty much the same next year.

Clippers-Rockets Game 7

My prediction was Clippers in 7.  Here we are.  Didn't think the series would look like it has so far but they're each 3-3 after 6 games and that's not a shock.  The Rockets have the 2-game winning streak going, embarrassing the Clippers badly in game 6 and they're undoubtedly going to be the punters' fave pick this afternoon.  But I'll stick with the Clippers (-2.5).

I think of it this way: the Clippers basically no-showed in games 2 and 5 and the 4th quarter of game 6.  The rest of the time they were the superior team, with or without Chris Paul.  When the Clippers show up and do their thing, I think they're the better team and squandering game 6 should be the wakeup call they need.  (As for game 6: hey, man, they've prepared everything for stopping James Harden and when Harden never got up off the bench during the rally, the Clippers blinked and forgot there were other guys on the team.  Classic frog-in-boiling water effect: they never developed the urgency because a Harden-less Rockets team seems like nothing to fear)  Today, I expect Paul to handle his business down the stretch, Deandre to go toe to toe with Dwight and Griffin to be the monster he's grown into.  I also expect Harden to do too much.

The Clippers have let the Rockets get further than they should have, wouldn't be a shock at all if the Rockets finished off the rally.  But I believe (for whatever reason) that the Clippers ain't gonna clip today.  Man, I'm looking forward to it.