Showing posts with label pelicans. Show all posts
Showing posts with label pelicans. Show all posts

Wednesday, October 23, 2019

2019-20 NBA Pre-Season (Southwest Division)

Rockets
Out:
Trevon Duval, Vince Edwards, Iman Shumpert, Kenneth Faried, Chris Paul, Chris Chiozza, Deyonta Davis, Marko Todorovic, 1st rd draft picks: 2024 (top 4 protected), 2025 (top 10 protected), 2026 (top 4 protected), (OKC gets 1st rd pick swaps for 2021 and 2025),
Paul for Russell Westbrook is a pretty good swap for the Rockets (younger, cheaper, faster, might be a better fit with Harden). They got good minutes out of Faried last year, thought they might keep him around. The other never looked like they were going to work and they don't care about draft picks these days.

Re-signed:
Isaiah Hartenstein (guaranteed his contract beyond 2019), Danuel House (3yr; $11.5m) Austin Rivers (2yr/$4.5m), Gerald Green (1yr), Eric Gordon (4yr/$75.6m), Nene Hilario (2yr/$20m)
All of these deals seems weird to me. They got Rivers to come back at a cheap price but then broke the bank for Gordon...? Green is hurt (may be out for the year) and I'm not sure what Nene gives them at this point. I heard buzz about Hartenstein last summer but not this summer, so it seems weird that they'd re-up him now. House came and went last year, seems odd they'd pay him now.

Newly signed:
Tyson Chandler (1yr/$2.6m), Ben McLemore (2yr/$4m), Thabo Sefolosha (1yr), Jaron Blossongame (1yr), Ryan Anderson, Shamorie Ponds, Chris Clemons, Ray Spalding,
Meh. They're filling out the roster at a reasonable rate, I suppose, but does Chandler really have anything left to give? And don't we already know that McLemore, Sefolosha and Anderon don't have anything left to give? And Blossongame, Ponds and Spalding have already bounced around so much without making a dent. This is a weird supporting cast they've put together.

Over/under (53.5): I got the over
Yeah, I've said nothing good about any of the off-season moves but they still have James Harden, the most efficient player in basketball, and Russell Westbrook, who is a crazy person that doesn't want to lose. Along, with Gordon, Capela, Tucker and whatever those signings give them, that should bring in a lot of W's.


Spurs
Out:
Ben Moore, Dante Cunningham, Donatas Motiejunas, Quincy Pondexter, Davis Bertans, the rights to Nemanja Dangubic
Bertans nails 3's like no one I've ever seen but the rest of these guys are replaceable.

Re-signed:
Rudy Gay (2yr/$32m), Derrick White (team exercised option; 2yr), Lonnie Walker IV (team exercised option; 2yr), Dejounte Murray (4yr/$64m extension)
Gay has had a weird run in his NBA career but I think he's a good fit with the Spurs and even at his age and declining productivity, I think this is still a pretty good deal for the team. I'm cool with nailing down these option years, too, a sign that they've drafted well lately. I would've liked to see Murray blow up before paying him, but I'm confident if the Spurs like him, he must be good.

Newly signed:
Keldon Johnson (4yr/$4m guaranteed), Luka Samanic (2yr/$5.5m), Trey Lyles (2yr/$11m), Quindarry Weatherspoon, Dedric Lawson
I don't know Samanic but he was well regarded in mock drafts all year long. I thought Johnson's performance at Kentucky left a lot to be desired , but the Spurs did well to snag him late in the 1st round. I like Lyles, he's big and versatile, I think he's got a good chance to finally fit in in San Anton. I think they have plans for Weatherspoon and Lawson, curious to see if they get any run.

Over/Under (46.5): I got the under
Just under but I've got them sneaking into the playoffs at #8 (which would be a rematch with the Nuggets in my projection).


Pelicans
Out:
Anthony Davis, Cheick Diallo, Stanley Johnson, Trevon Bluiett, Christian Wood, Elfrid Peyton, Ian Clark, Jordan Crawford, Julius Randle, Solomon Hill, Dairis Bertans
That's an amazing amount of talent leaving here...so why have the Pelicans struggled to make the post-season or do anything once they're there for so many years? Obviously losing Davis is massive but the return was pretty good and losing Hill is a godsend. Randle seems likely to finally find a home with NYK (a dubious achievement), while Johnson, Diallo, Wood, Peyton go off to see if they can actually play in this league.

Re-signed:
Frank Jackson (guaranteed upcoming season), Darius Miller (2yr/$14.5m), Kenrich Williams (guaranteed upcoming season),
Like these guys and the money isn't onerous, so all nice moves.

Newly signed:
Zion Williamson (4yr/$45m), Lonzo Ball, Brandon Ingram, Josh Hart, Derrick Favors, Jaxson Hayes (4yr/$20m), Nickeal Alexander-Walker (4yr/$14.3m), JJ Reddick (2yr/$26.5m), Nicolo Melli (2yr/$8m), Cody Martin (3yr/$4.5m), Josh Gray, Zylan Cheatham, Josh Perkins, Lakers 1st rd picks (2021, 2022, 2025, pick swaps for 2023 and 2024),  2021 2nd rd pick, Warriors 2023 2nd rd pick
Ball is gonna be reborn in New Orleans, Ingram didn't get his extension so he'll be balling all year, Hart will get a chance to just play ball (instead of being a SoCal celebrity), Favors will get a chance to redefine his game, Hayes could be a monster, Alexader-Walker (can we just call him NAW?) may be the surprise ROY candidate this year, Reddick and Melli make an interesting tandem from the perimeter. Oh...but what about Zion? My initial thought was that he would kinda dominate at first (because he's left handed) but then everyone would kinda get used to him by the end of the season; but now that he's starting off injured, I'm thinking the team will have to be careful with him, meaning his rookie year might be kinda sloppy and stop-start. I get that he's exciting as hell but I can't help thinking that he will not have the career longevity that we're all hoping for, the dude is an offensive lineman, that's gonna wreck his knees and ankles over time. I'm rooting for him but he has Kerry Wood written all over him. Or he could be the greatest of all time...you know...either way.

Over/Under (39.5): I'm going under
I think this team will be fun to watch (I love the youth movements, myself) but I don't see them getting a lot of W's. Built for the future not the now.


Mavericks
Out:
Devin Harris, Dirk Nowitzki, Salah Mejri, Trey Burke, Kostas Antetokounpo, Daryl Macon, rights to Deividas Sirvydis, rights to Satnam Singh, 2021 2nd rd pick, 2023 2nd rd pick
Dirk has moved on, long live the Dirk! Now that Luka and Porizingis have arrived, it's time for the team's next act. And Devin Harris is gone, too! I thought they'd bring back Mejri, but the rest are better off elsewhere.

Re-signed:
Ryan Broekhoff (team guaranteed final year), Dwight Powell (3yr/$33m), Maxi Kleber (4yr/$35.9m), Dorian Finney-Smith (3yr/$12m), Kristaps Porzingis (5yr/$158m), JJ Barea (1yr/$2.6m), Justin Jackson (team exercised option; 2yr), Luka Doncic (team exercised option; 2yr)
Okay, I'm good with all of those (though I was surprised to see Barea back from last year's injury already).

In:
Seth Curry (4yr/$32m), Boban Marjanovic (2yr/$7m), Delon Wright,
Okay, good with all of these, too. These all feel like good moves.

2nd rd draftees, 2-way contracts, Exhibition 10, Waiver claims:
Antonius Cleveland, Josh Reaves, Isaiah Roby (3yr/$4.8m), Yudai Baba, Chad Brown,
I don't know any of these guys.


Over/Under (40.5): I'm going under
Close, but I haven't them coming up below the o/u and tied for 9th in the West. I'm looking forward to the Luka-Porzingis pairing and I think the supporting cast is nice but I don't think they're quite ready to challenge for the post-season just yet.  Fun to watch but another year away, I'd say.


Grizzlies
Out:
Tyler Dorsey, Joakim Noah, Justin Holiday, Tyler Zeller, Avery Bradley, CJ Miles, Mike Conley, Julian Washburn, Jevon Carter, Chandler Parsons, Ivan Rabb, Miles Plumlee (and Dwight Howard,  Kyle Korver and Miles Plumlee came and went without suiting up, feels like Iguodala might join that list)
Losing Conley is the end of an era and losing Parsons is the end of an awful era. Otherwise the rest of these guys feel like can be replaced.

Re-signed:
Dillon Brooks (guaranteed contract for upcoming season), Jonas Valenciunas (3yr/$45m), Bruno Caboclo (guaranteed contract for upcoming season),
Valenciunas is a really great int'l player but his NBA days have been kinda hit and miss, but I think he fits the Grizzlies just fine, so good signing for them. Brooks and Caboclo are worth checking out for another year.

In:
Andre Iguodala, Ja Morant (4yr/$39.5m), Josh Jackson, DeAnthony Melton, Grayson Allen, Jae Crowder, Brandon Clarke (4yr/$12m), Solomon Hill, Tyus Jones (3yr/$26.4m), Marko Gaduric (2yr/$5.4m), John Konchar, Dusty Hannah, Bennie Boatright, Suns 2021 and 2022 2nd rd picks, Mavs 2021 and 2023 2nd rd picks, the rights to Satnam Singh
Iguodala has been the center of trade/buyout talk since the moment he arrived but if I were the Grizzlies I'd love for him to stay; but I reckon he'll get traded or waived by February (I'd to like to see him on the Pelicans, actually). Morant looks great in pre-season and has a decent shot at ROY (though I think this team won't be good enough to get him enough attention) and Clarke looks like a good fit for them, too. Jackson, Melton and Allen are reclamation projects, wouldn't be surprised to see all three get re-upped next summer. Crowder is a nice vet, Jones is a solid backup PG, and Hill is still around?

Over/Under (27.5): I'm going way under
This team is a muddle, this season is all about seeing what they've got for the future. I like Morant, Clarke and Melton to shine out and I think Jackson's athleticism and Allen's assholishness should be fun for the fans. I don't see a lot of W's for this team but they've metabolized the worst of their bad contracts, so now is the time to grow.

Tuesday, June 18, 2019

2019-20 New Orleans Pelicans

2018-19: 33-49
Draft picks: 1,4,37,57

Word is the Pelicans have agreed to trade Anthony Davis to the Lakers for Lonzo Ball, Brandon Ingram, Josh Hart, the #4 pick and two future 1st round picks (2021 and 2023, I presume). I had already started this but this seems like a good place to re-start--for example, the Pels picked up a sizable trade exception in this deal that could be used before the 2020 draft.

Signed for next season ($82-ish m): Jrue Holiday, Solomon Hill, Lonzo Ball, Brandon Ingram, E'Twaun Moore, Josh Hart, Jahlil Okafor, Christian Wood, Frank Jackson, Kenrich Williams, Dairis Bertans
(I'm not exactly sure about that Cap total, it's sorta close to $82m, I reckon)
Could a Holiday trade be next up for the Pels? There are options: Knicks are always looking for a savior, how badly do the Pels want RJ Barrett (at #3) to go with Zion? Or it seems like the Pels and Celtics have been talking lately, seems like the Celtics could use a PG and they got money to spend...At any rate, the Pelicans for the next year are in youth movement mode--not exactly tanking but not expecting to a playoff run. In which case, Holiday's career would be bettered by going elsewhere and the Pelicans are better off riding Ingram, Lonzo, Hart, Frank Jackson and Zion and #4 for next season.
Is now finally the time to stretch and release Solomon Hill? Is he valuable to someone as a throw-in?
Julius Randle seems expendable to me--though I think he's a really underappreciated player!--feels like Zion is gonna get all his minutes next year. Though he's still on a favorable deal, I can see him getting moved this summer.
Ball and Hart will get their chances to play--especially if Holiday is moved.
Ingram is eligible to be re-signed right now, right? Do the Bird rights extend to the Pels after the trade? If so, they should probably go ahead and give him long term money now and just accept that Zion and Ingram (and Okafor?) is their future core.
It is probably time to move on from Moore. This is the last year of his deal, so he's a deal-stuffer or an expiring contract for someone right up to the trade deadline. Decent veteran off the bench, could be valuable for someone's playoff-push next season (Spurs or Pistons, maybe).
I always liked Wood but the way he's bounced around suggests that he is at best a practice player or a Summer League filler.
I liked Jackson and Williams last year, low cost high energy bench guys that could be real fan favorites.
There's another Bertans?


This summer's free agents: Julius Randle, (opted out), Stanley Johnson, Elfird Payton, Darius Miller, Ian Clark, Cheick Diallo, Trevon Bluiett
The Pelicans are not looking to win next year but building for the future suggests they could need a range of low-minute/low-cost guys off the bench. Randle saw himself getting replaced by #1 Zion and bolted, which may have happened anyway: his scoring numbers probably earned him a raise. Johnson and Payton are probably looking for more money or playing time to be on the Pelicans radar. Miller and Clark are nice long-term continuity guys who could be useful for limited minutes or perhaps they are easily replaceable (I can see Miller following Davis to the Lakers, actually). I'd keep Diallo, I thought he was promising enough to earn a 2 or 3 year low cost deal. I liked Bluiett in NCAA, didn't see him with the Pelicans this year.


Draft: Well #1 is gonna be Zion Williamson (Duke), you know it, I know it, the American people know it. And obviously he is the cornerstone of this team for the next 5 years. Now, personally I like Zion but I'm not as high as on him as most; he's a good player, an intriguing player, a watchable player, could be a real cornerstone kinda guy, has a lot of upside and is quite clearly the #1 pick in this draft. That said, I think people are overrating his abilities because of his freakish size. We've never seen anyone of his build move so well out there and, thus, we assume he's going to dominate the shit out of every situation. I don't see it. I think he's good and though his size makes him look unstoppable, basketball isn't necessarily about size and I think Zion will struggle his rookie year as all the vets line up to show him the smackdown (I'm already excited about seeing Chris Paul go up Zion, that'll be a show!). Another kooky irony: I think his game is gonna be like Julius Randle (except that Julius is left-handed), which isn't bad except that the Pels already have a Julius Randle-type (named Julius Randle)--or had one, I should say. So, while I like Zion and he is the obvious pick here, I don't think he re-invents basketball and I can see him struggling in his rookie year. (And greatest prospect of all time? Ohhh, not even close, probably on the edge of my top ten)

#4 pick: Well if RJ Barrett (Duke) is there, expect them to keep the Duke train rolling. Indeed, unless they lose their shit over Darius Garland (Vanderbilt), I wouldn't be super shocked if they drafted if they took Cam Reddish (Duke) at #4. I don't think the guys between 4 and 9 (roughly, Darius Garland (Vanderbilt), Cam Reddish (Duke), Coby White (North Carolina), Rui Hachimura (Gonzaga), DeAndre Hunter (Virginia), Jarret Culver (Texas Tech)) are wildly ahead of the others, so taking Reddish at #4 doesn't seem crazy to me, he was one of the top prospects just a year ago.

The only 2nd round-graded guy that I really liked in NCAA was Carsen Edwards (Purdue) who I think will probably be gone by #37, but if he's there, I suggest the Pelicans jump all over him. As it is #37 and #57 could bring guys like Jalen McDaniels (San Diego State) or Johntay Porter (Missouri).


Next year's lineup (I'm assuming Holiday, Hill and Randle will all be gone): PG Lonzo, SG Ingram, SF Reddish, PF Zion, C Okafor with Jackson, Hart, Williams, Moore, Diallo off the bench; they'll have a trade exception from the Davis trade and plenty of chips to move, so this bench should probably be wildly different by October. Fun lineup, looks like they'll be a running team, don't see them winning much but I'll be watching the shit out of 'em on League Pass.

Monday, April 30, 2018

2017-18 NBA Playoffs (2nd round)

East
Sixers-Celtics
The Sixers mercilessly battered the Heat in five games and looked like one of the best teams of the post-season; the Celtics kept Giannis at bay and never succumbed to the Bucks' strategy of slogging game play. The Celtics got great work from the Horford-Brown-Tatum line but if Brown is hurt (out for Game One at least), that's gonna be tough for them to make up. They got Marcus Smart back, they got Terry Rozier full-on minutes as the team leader and they do have the best coach in the sport in Brad Stevens, but I'm not seeing them outscoring the Sixers four out of seven times. I like the Sixers in 6: either Game One or Two in Boston, win both games back in Philly and then wrap it up back home in six. The Celtics got savvy, though, it would be a great win for them if they could halt the Philly youth.

Cavs-Raptors
Well, well, well. The Raptors winning Game Six in Washington was, I think, a big win for a team that needs all the big wins they can get; the Cavs going seven games against the Pacers, only surviving because Lebron did everything is, on the other hand, a worrying sign. Lebron has had played more minutes this year than ever before and logged more games in the 1st round than ever before and has fewer reliable teammates than ever before. If any single player can will their squad past the #1 team in the conference it is Lebron. And if there's any #1 seed that's just dying to give a series away it is the Raptors. I think the Raptors are more complete than the Pacers so if they just stay straight, they're on track to get to seven games with the Cavs. Who ya got in Game Seven? That's a tough one, I'll take the Raptors in 7.  That said, if Lebron wants to win, it certainly could happen.


West
Pelicans 101-123 Warriors
Warriors played their most complete game in several weeks and the Pelicans looked shellshocked out there. If Iguodala shoots like that again and Looney and Livingston give good minutes off the bench, then the Pelicans could be in quick trouble. But I don't think it'll be that easy for the Warriors. I think the Pelicans came into this first game with a boxer's mentality: they wanted to take a few hits and see if they could roll with it. The answer is no. They need to came out swinging, scoring or at least controlling the offense. I think they can do that and if so, they can put the Warrior role players in the spin cycle and run up points at a more efficient clip. This series isn't over, I don't think Game One is representative of what the Pelicans can do, while I thought it was showed the Warriors at near perfection.

Jazz 96-110 Rockets
If the Jazz don't get Ricky Rubio back soon, then this series could be over. The Rockets control the ball, they are in control. My feeling was that the Rockets would struggle to score and the consistent Jazz would hang and then surpass them; that's not what happened in Game One. And without Rubio, it'll be tough for the Jazz to get their roll going. That said, I still have faith that the Rockets will give the Jazz the opportunity to hang around, which could be enough for the Jazz to get back into it. The Jazz have enough to beat the Rockets but they need Harden and Paul to falter.