Sixers
Out:
Jimmy Butler, JJ Reddick, TJ McConnell, Boban Marjanovic, Amir Johnson, Justin Patton, Greg Monroe, Demetrius Jackson
I know I'm the only one: but TJ McConnell did so much for this team over the last few years, I'm not saying they can't find a solid 2nd string PG to roll with, but I suspect they're gonna miss McConnell more than they realize. And, in further contradistinction, I think they're better off without all the other guys. I thought Butler was more distracting than useful to them last year, I thought Reddick was wildly overrated in his Philly sojourn, Boban is kinda funny to look at but doesn't do much in his 10 minutes per night, they paid Amir Johnson insane amounts of money, Monroe was utterly invisible, Patton never did play (although the Sixers tend to like rookies that live in the hospital) and I didn't even know they had Demetrius Jackson. So, in short, I think McConnell is the big loss and the rest are addition by subtraction.
Re-signed:
Mike Scott (2yr/$9.8m), Furkan Korkmaz (2yr/$3.3m), Tobias Harris (5yr/$180m), James Ennis (2yr/$4m), Shake Milton (4yr/$5m), Ben Simmons (extension; 5yr/$170m), Zhaire Smith (team exercised option; 1yr)
I like all these moves. At the that price point, Scott is a great energy guy off the bench. I've like what little I've seen of Korkmaz, I'm cool with keeping him on a low cost deal (although he never got time before, I don't see why he'd play now). I was a little surprised they kept Harris (I thought they'd push hard for Butler instead) but I like it because I think he and Simmons can be a great combo. I like Ennis, a really underrated contributor. Simmons can be maddening but he's totally worth the big money, I'm very cool with locking him up now. I haven't seen much of Milton or Zhaire but they're young (and cheap) enough to lock down.
In:
Josh Richardson (trade; 3yr/$32m), Al Horford (4yr/$109m), Kyle O'Quinn (1yr/$2m) Raul Neto (1yr/$1.7m), Trey Burke (1yr/$2m), Marial Shayok, 2020 Hawks 2nd rd pick, 2023 Hawks 2nd rd pick, 2024 Pistons 2nd rd pick
Richardson gives them gritty D on the perimeter. Horford brings an adult to set the offense and settle things down. O'Quinn is a nice big body down low that is a surprisingly good scorer off the bench. I like Neto (the poor man's McConnell) off the bench. Not sure I see the need for Trey Burke, but low-cost depth at the ball handler spot isn't a bad thing. I don't know Shayok.
Over/Under (54.5): I'm going over
I think this team is well put-together. They've got good size down low, good ball handling outside, and good defense all over the floor. Good mix of youth and vets, a coach who's been around, the right atmosphere at the right time, this team is ready to blast off. To me, the one worry is that Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid are flakey weirdos who might have no clue what they're doing; but if they just show up (and I think they will) I think the rest of the Sixer organization is in good position to serve them. Once this team really gets going, they could be a monster by the end of the season. That said, the playoffs and the regular season are two different things and I'm not sure they're ready to win a championship, but I do think they're ready to take 1st place in the East.
Raptors
Out:
Eric Moreland, Jodie Meeks, Jordan Lloyd, Jeremy Lin, Kawhi Leonard, Danny Green
Losing Kawhi is arguably the largest loss of any team this off-season. He was brought in to win a championship and he did, so no hard feelings. The rest are fungible.
Re-signed:
Marc Gasol (exercise player option; 1yr/$25.6m), Patrick McCaw (2yr/$8m), OG Anunoby (team exercised option; 2yr/$6.1m), Kyle Lowry (extension; 1yr/$30m), Paskal Siakam (extension; 4yr/$130m)
This is an expensive, aging team but I think they ride it for one more year and begin the re-tool next summer. Well, actually, inking Siakam to a 4-year extension was the beginning of the re-tool--and it's off to a good start! Siakam was the bust-out player of last season and locking him up was the #1 priority for the Raptors. Picking up the option on Anunoby was a good move, too, as was extending Lowry for one more year (he's the face of your team, signing him now foregoes having to do it next summer or watching him walk away). Gasol picking up his option was predictable and though that $25m price tag is high, they just won a title, one big payday before he walks is good for everyone. I always kinda liked McCaw, he'll thicken up that 2nd string.
In:
Stanley Johnson (2yr/$7.4), Terence Davis (2yr/$2.4m), Matt Thomas (3yr/$4.2m), Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (1yr/$2.5m), Dewan Hernandez (3yr/$4.2m), Osahe Brissett (1yr)
Toronto has made good use of their bench over the years and these guys are bench thickeners. I'm not sure about Johnson but I think Hollis-Jefferson in particular can be a real defensive presence in their 2nd string.
Over/under (46.5): I'm going over
My thinking is this: the Raptors really don't have any moves to make, this is the team they've got, so they'll be riding it hard all year long. They may love the notion of shedding big salaries like Gasol or Ibaka, but they'd have to either take back the same money (why bother?) or absorb a bunch of new bodies (worth it if the right deal comes along, totally not worth it if not), so I think they're living off the afterglow of their championship for one more year, then shedding it all next summer. No reason to ease up on anyone, no reason to restrict minutes, no youngster getting a closer look, this coach has free reign to go to the whip hand from beginning to end and I think that's what they do. They're still a solid bunch, a prideful bunch, I think they play hard to the end and win more games than you think they're gonna (and then blow it up in the summer). Don't be shocked if they make a deep run in the playoffs, they're not as talented as some other teams but they do have the experience of being there, which no one else in the East has.
Celtics
Out:
Al Horford, Kyrie Irving, Jonathon Gibson, PJ Dozier, RJ Hunter, Shane Larkin, Marcus Morris, Terry Rozier, Aron Baynes, the rights to Ty Jerome, Guerschon Yabusele
Losing Horford hurts. Losing Kyrie feels like a weight off. Losing the others...meh. Baynes was a nice role player but hardly irreplaceable. Rozier was a nice player but everyone knew he wasn't worth the money he was going to command. I thought Morris gave them a toughness that they're gonna miss (though he also gave them a stupidity they're not going to miss). Larkin was good for minutes but not irreplaceable. I was always intrigued by Yabusele (the poor man's Zion, no?) but he never did much in that system. The others come and go.
Re-signed:
Brad Wanamaker (2yr/$5.1m), Daniel Theis (2yr/$10m), Jaysun Tatum (team exercised option; 2yr),
Good to wrap up Tatum. I actually kinda like Theis and Wanamaker is certainly on an affordable deal, so good moves, as well.
In:
Kemba Walker (4yr/$140m), Grant Williams (4yr/$4.8m guaranteed), Romeo Langford (2yr/$7.1m guaranteed), Carsen Edwards (3yr/$4.5m guaranteed), Vincent Poirier (2yr/$5.1m), Enes Kanter (2yr/$10m), Javonte Green (2yr/$2.4m), Tacko Fall, Tremont Waters, Suns 1st rd pick (unprotected in 2021--dang!)
I think Kemba is the perfect replacement for Kyrie and I think we're gonna see more playmaking from him than we've seen so far in his career--or at least that's what the Celtics are hoping for! If so, the Celtics should be much better than last year (though I have them 4th in the East again this year) and more dangerous in the post-season (where they completely ran out of gas last year). Williams and Langford and Edwards are intriguing youngsters, I think Kanter compliments Kemba well (though he does nothing to help their defense) and while I think Tacko has virtually no talent for the game of basketball, he seems like a really nice guy and that alone can be a positive force (especially for the fans).
Over/under (48.5): I'm going over
I kinda love everything about this team. Losing Horford hurts (but he is getting older and I thought he wore down badly last year in the playoffs), but shedding Kyrie for Kemba gives Coach Stevens a whole new grip on the locker room and the philosophy and I think it'll work wonders for the C's. Also, I think Kemba, Hayward, Tatum, Brown and even Robert Williams will be better than last season and that marginal improvement alone will make them a steadier, more solid team. I think this Celtics team can be really good this year and I wouldn't be surprised if they pulled an upset in the post-season because I think the top four in the East will be in a clump, each with their positives and negatives.
Nets
Out:
DeMarre Carroll, Ed Davis, Jared Dudley, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, D'Angelo Russell, Alan Williams, Allen Crabbe, Shabazz Napier, Treveon Graham, the rights to Aaron White and Nemanja Dangubic
I think the Nets are going to miss these guys more than they realize. This is the core of a team that made the playoffs last year and though they hit home runs in the off-season (if you consider grumpy Kyrie, hobbled Durant and old-ass Deandre as 'home runs'), they're letting go of a lot of offensive and defensive production here. If it works, no one will think twice about it; but if it doesn't...they might be looking for a new coach and/or GM next summer.
Re-signed:
Theo Pinson (2yr/$3.1m), Caris LaVert (3yr/$52.5m), Dzanan Musa (team exercised option; 2yr), Jarrett Allen (team exercised option; 2yr)
LaVert is the story here, he's set to have a growth spurt year and I think the Nets will need it. Pinson has yet to do anything in the league, Musa is intriguing but hasn't yet really molded into shape and I like Allen, I'm good with these moves.
In:
DeAndre Jordan (4yr/$40m), Kyrie Irving (4yr/$136.5m), Kevin Durant (4yr/$160m), Garrett Temple (2yr/$4.7m guaranteed), Wilson Chandler (1yr/$2.6m), David Nwaba (2yr/$3.5m), Nicolas Claxton (3yr/$4.2m), Henry Ellenson, 2021 Hawks 2nd rd pick, Warriors 2021 1st rd pick (top 20 protected)
I can live with the money for Deandre Jordan (who I think has descended into a wildly underrated state) but I'm not crazy about the length: I'd give him more money for fewer years. Kyrie is that thing you wish for but beware: he may be fool's gold. Obviously he's got talent but he's also a shit talking ball hog who may or may not be down with what's good for the team....I'm just sayin': he may be great or he may be a total pain in the ass, we'll just have to find out. I love nabbing Durant, injury or no, but they don't have him this year (no rush to bring him back regardless of a possible playoff run). Temple is nice, Chandler is okay (though serving a 25 game suspension), Nwaba is fine (though I don't see him as a perfect fit with Kyrie or LaVert), and I'm okay with Ellenson (he's on a 2-way but I expect he'll be in a Nets uni a lot this season). But after Kyrie and Durant, I'm not sure the new guys are pound-for-pound replacements for the old guys.
Over/under (43.5): I'm thinking under (waaay under)
I think this team struggles. There's a lot of turnover and no real leadership which I think empowers Kyrie way too much. If they fail to get W's early (which I think they will) then what happens when Kyrie turns melancholy? There's no Durant, there's no D'Angelo Russell, this team's best shot at leadership will have to come from LaVert and Dinwiddie--and what happens if/when their games clash with Kyrie's style? What happens if Coach Atkinson has to scream and yell for control (and he is legendary screamer)? They've jettisoned a lot of dudes that played a lot of minutes last year, leaving them a screaming coach, two young stars that may not be ready to lead, and a crabby captain that may throw in the towel when things go south. I'm just sayin': there's a lot that can go wrong here and not much that can go right--let's say Kyrie is in MVP talk, LaVert wins Most Improved, and Dinwiddie wins 6th Man...how far does that team go in the post-season? The best possible scenario for this season isn't really even that great, so this is a team with a low ceiling and a shockingly low floor. I don't see good things for the Nets this year.
Knicks
Out:
Emmanuel Mudiay, Henry Ellenson, Billy Garrett, Mario Hezonja, Isaiah Hicks, John Jenkins, DeAndre Jordan, Luke Kornet, Lance Thomas, Noah Vonleh
Meh. Easy come, easy go. The Knicks fancy themselves as a destination for free agents but that's like Lubbock, TX, thinking of itself as a great vacation spot.
Re-signed:
Damyean Dotson (guaranteed final year of contract)
Okay. I like Dotson, they may as well keep every remotely promising youngster they can.
In:
Bobby Portis (2yr/$30m), Elfrid Payton (2yr/$16m), Julius Randle (3yr/$58m), Taj Gibson (2yr/$20m), Wayne Ellington (2yr/$16m), Marcus Morris (1yr/$15m), Reggie Bullock (2yr/$8.2m), Ignas Brazdekis (2yr/$2.4m)
I kinda like these moves. It doesn't give them much of a team for the next two years, but it gives them the chance to be in a lot of trade talks and since the free agent pool next summer is going to be shockingly minimal (especially after the lollapalooza we had this summer), so they've invested in reasonably priced assets instead of holding cash. I'm okay with that. I like Randle and I think they got a good deal on him. Portis, Payton and Brazdekis are worth taking a look at. Taj, Ellington, Morris and Bullock are decent trade chips down the line. This team ain't going deep in the playoffs or nothing but I think these moves keep the Knicks relevant in potential roster moves for the next two seasons, so while they didn't get Kyrie and KD, I'm okay with these moves as a fallback.
Over/under (26.5): I'm going over
I think they've got enough veteran smarts to have a few hot streaks throughout the season. And I still believe in Mitchell Robinson, Kevin Knox and RJ Barrett, so there's enough percolating to score them some W's--especially the unexpected kind that pumps up the crowd. Sure, this team is gonna get pants-ed by the Sixers and the Raptors most nights, but every once in a while they'll steal a game from the Lakers or the Celtics or the Heat that no one saw coming--they'll be that kinda team. No, this Bad News Bears squad is not gonna make the playoffs or even be a reliably good team, but I think they'll garner more buzz than you think, so as Knicks teams go, I can see this year's model being something like 'beloved'.
Showing posts with label sixers. Show all posts
Showing posts with label sixers. Show all posts
Wednesday, October 23, 2019
Tuesday, June 18, 2019
2019-20 Philadelphia 76ers
2018-19: 51-31 (2nd rd playoffs)
Draft picks: 24, 33, 34, 44, 54
Signed for next season ($67.5m): Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons, Jonathon Simmons, Zhaire Smith, Jonah Bolden
Embiid, check. Ben Simmons, check.
Remember when Jonathon Simmons was an exciting young mid-range scorer with the Spurs? Where did that guy go? Why isn't he of any use at all any more? And how do the Sixers get rid of him?
Didn't see much of Zhaire Smith last season. And what I saw of Bolden was okay, but he seems like a real knucklehead (those guys can be useful but you gotta keep an eye on them).
This summer's free agents: Tobias Harris, Jimmy Butler, JJ Reddick, Boban Marjanovic, James Ennis, Mike Scott, Amir Johnson, Furkan Korkmaz, TJ McConnell, Greg Monroe
Watching the Sixers during the regular season I thought to myself, 'Hmmm, I kinda liked Ben Simmons and Tobias Harris together...'. But come playoff team, it was clear that the Sixers were a Butler-Embiid team not a Simmons-Harris team. To that end, I expect them to break the bank to keep Butler and let Harris go (and perhaps take offers for Simmons).
JJ Reddick has been a fixture of the Process years and I can see them bringing him back, but I never found him to be so integral to those teams, so I can see him finding more money elsewhere.
I don't see Boban coming back. Interesting player but not an obviously superior player.
I kinda liked Ennis in the playoffs last year, definitely earned himself a contract somewhere--maybe not Philly, though.
I kinda like Mike Scott, not sure how much Philly liked him.
Johnson has been a serviceable backup big man through the Process years, if his price tag goes down, I can definitely see him back with Philly.
I liked what I saw of Korkmaz but there just wasn't enough room for in that lineup. I reckon he goes to Europe for a year or two before trying to return to the NBA.
The Sixers would be foolish to let McConnell get away. Look: you need a 2nd string PG, you need a guy that keeps the offense going when your stars are on the bench and McConnell does that as well as anyone in the league! Yes, he's only gonna play 10-15 minutes per game but someone has to play those minutes and McConnell is the best available. (I thought the Sixers should've locked him up long term last summer--and I still think they should lock him up because he's perfect for them!)
I don't see how Monroe returns next year.
Still got that Hinkie taste for 2nd rd picks, so the Sixers have a ton of picks overall (24, 33, 34, 44, 54). I reckon they'll be looking to trade those 2nd rd picks for future 2nd rd picks (also straight from the Hinkie playbook--why did they run him out of town again?). I have no idea how they'll draft but it looks like they've got a shot at guys like Carsen Edwards (Purdue), Naz Reid (LSU), Daniel Gafford (Arkansas), Jordan Bone (Tennessee) and a handful of foreign prospects. Again, I expect them to trade those picks forward rather than come up with anyone that will join next year's roster.
Next year's lineup:
PG Simmons, SF Butler, C Embiid....after that I'm not sure.
I can see them bringing back Reddick, McConnell, Johnson, Ennis and Scott but I wouldn't be surprised to see a whole new collection in there, too. So I dunno what they got going on for next season past those core three.
Draft picks: 24, 33, 34, 44, 54
Signed for next season ($67.5m): Joel Embiid, Ben Simmons, Jonathon Simmons, Zhaire Smith, Jonah Bolden
Embiid, check. Ben Simmons, check.
Remember when Jonathon Simmons was an exciting young mid-range scorer with the Spurs? Where did that guy go? Why isn't he of any use at all any more? And how do the Sixers get rid of him?
Didn't see much of Zhaire Smith last season. And what I saw of Bolden was okay, but he seems like a real knucklehead (those guys can be useful but you gotta keep an eye on them).
This summer's free agents: Tobias Harris, Jimmy Butler, JJ Reddick, Boban Marjanovic, James Ennis, Mike Scott, Amir Johnson, Furkan Korkmaz, TJ McConnell, Greg Monroe
Watching the Sixers during the regular season I thought to myself, 'Hmmm, I kinda liked Ben Simmons and Tobias Harris together...'. But come playoff team, it was clear that the Sixers were a Butler-Embiid team not a Simmons-Harris team. To that end, I expect them to break the bank to keep Butler and let Harris go (and perhaps take offers for Simmons).
JJ Reddick has been a fixture of the Process years and I can see them bringing him back, but I never found him to be so integral to those teams, so I can see him finding more money elsewhere.
I don't see Boban coming back. Interesting player but not an obviously superior player.
I kinda liked Ennis in the playoffs last year, definitely earned himself a contract somewhere--maybe not Philly, though.
I kinda like Mike Scott, not sure how much Philly liked him.
Johnson has been a serviceable backup big man through the Process years, if his price tag goes down, I can definitely see him back with Philly.
I liked what I saw of Korkmaz but there just wasn't enough room for in that lineup. I reckon he goes to Europe for a year or two before trying to return to the NBA.
The Sixers would be foolish to let McConnell get away. Look: you need a 2nd string PG, you need a guy that keeps the offense going when your stars are on the bench and McConnell does that as well as anyone in the league! Yes, he's only gonna play 10-15 minutes per game but someone has to play those minutes and McConnell is the best available. (I thought the Sixers should've locked him up long term last summer--and I still think they should lock him up because he's perfect for them!)
I don't see how Monroe returns next year.
Still got that Hinkie taste for 2nd rd picks, so the Sixers have a ton of picks overall (24, 33, 34, 44, 54). I reckon they'll be looking to trade those 2nd rd picks for future 2nd rd picks (also straight from the Hinkie playbook--why did they run him out of town again?). I have no idea how they'll draft but it looks like they've got a shot at guys like Carsen Edwards (Purdue), Naz Reid (LSU), Daniel Gafford (Arkansas), Jordan Bone (Tennessee) and a handful of foreign prospects. Again, I expect them to trade those picks forward rather than come up with anyone that will join next year's roster.
Next year's lineup:
PG Simmons, SF Butler, C Embiid....after that I'm not sure.
I can see them bringing back Reddick, McConnell, Johnson, Ennis and Scott but I wouldn't be surprised to see a whole new collection in there, too. So I dunno what they got going on for next season past those core three.
Saturday, May 11, 2019
2018-19 NBA Playoffs (Conference Finals)
Bucks over Celtics in 5 (I said Bucks in 7)
The Celtics were a mixed-up team all year long, went on a 5-game winning streak in the playoffs, quickly dispensing of the Pacers before laying one of the worst smackdowns the Bucks have seen all year in Game One...felt like they'd gotten it together and were ready to go on a run...but there was no run. The Bucks got their game back together and easily whipped the Celtics through the next four matches. The first game was an aberration, the next four were more realistic.
The good news for the Celtics: Jaylen Brown looked really good and Marcus Smart is poised to be a fan favorite for the foreseeable future; the bad news: Jason Tatum is kinda dull, Aaron Baynes provided no spark (as he did last year), Al Horford played out of his mind in Game One but never came close to sustaining that through a complete series, Gordon Hayward is still a mystery, as is Robert Williams, and Kyrie Irving (and Terry Rozier and Marcus Morris) are probably gone for good. Going forward for the Celtics the F rotation (Hayward, Brown, Tatum) is solid and big man rotation (Horford, Baynes, Williams) is promising, I suggest they draft nothing but PGs with their three 1st rd picks and aim for a free agent like...uh...maybe Rajon Rondo...or Isiah Thomas.
Warriors over Rockets in 6 (I said Warriors in 7)
I was really shocked by last night's Warrior win, I just assumed the Rockets would show up and blast through the Durant-less Warriors at home but did not happen. The Warriors were pretty good, they came to play and returned better than the Rockets could give. Klay has played well on defense in this series but Game Six was his first notable shooting night, Curry was invisible in the 1st half but dominated the 2nd, Iguodala was good (he's been up/down throughout the series), Livingston was okay (he had been kinda bad, I thought, against the Rockets), Andrew Bogut was not too bad (I think Looney is more useful in every way, I just don't see why Bogut is playing as much as he is), Looney had his moments, Quinn Cook was an interesting change of pace (though not much more than that), and Draymond was excellent (their MVP in this series, I'd say). The Warriors without Durant are still the best team left (which is another fascinating detail about the upcoming off-season). The Rockets just couldn't muster enough offense even though Chris Paul had one of his best games as a Rocket (*).
The good news for the Rockets: they've still got James Harden and Clint Capela for 4 more years and reasonable deals with PJ Tucker, Eric Gordon and Nene. The bad news is they still owe Chris Paul $120m. Ouch! And they're already over the salary cap for next year so they've got moves to make but every single one of them will be unnaturally expensive. They've still got a promising core, all they gotta do is beat the Warriors.
And two Game Sevens on Mother's Day!
I can see the Sixers-Raptors game being a blowout, one of these teams is going to be vastly better than the other and I think we'll know by the start of the 4th quarter. When the Sixers play good team defense and everyone is knocking down shots, I think they're the best team in the league--no shit: I think they could beat the Warriors!--but the chances of them doing that more than once every seven games is not likely. They've already played really well in Game Two and Game Six, so the chances they give three badass efforts against the same squad just does not seem likely to me. That said, if the Raptors get punched in the mouth, this team could absolutely fall apart: Lowry, Ibaka, Gasol, Green and Siakam are all totally capable of disappearing and Kawhi can be the lead dog but he can't carry a team all by himself, so if the Sixers are hitting on all cylinders, then the Raptors falling completely flat is a definite possibility. But I think the Raptors hitting shots and controlling the action is more likely than the Sixers doing that. So I'll take the Raptors to finish the series.
I had the Blazers in 7 coming in and I can see that happening. But I think the Nuggets are slightly better, Jokic is maybe the most dependable player in the league right now, and Denver has a kooky home court advantage, so I'll switch and go with the Nuggets here. These two teams are so evenly matched that the slightest variation in game play could produce a decisive result: say, Will Barton gets three steals or Al-Farouk Aminu gets 4 blocks or CJ McCollum picks up a cheap foul right before halftime--those are the little things that could be the tipping point. That's how close these teams are! If the Blazers shoot well from 3 and keep the Nuggets off the offensive glass, they can win; if the Nuggets shoot well from 3 and minimize turnovers, they can win. We'll see. Jokic and Lillard are probably my two favorite players to watch right now, sorry that one of them has to lose. I'll take the Nuggets to move on and face the Warriors.
(*) 7 minutes left, Chris Paul has 25 points. They've just shown a graphic that Paul and Harden have never scored 30 in the same game. I thought right then, 'Paul's not getting 30 tonight.' Sure enough: he squirted loose for an easy layup, otherwise never came close to scoring in the last 5 minutes.
The Celtics were a mixed-up team all year long, went on a 5-game winning streak in the playoffs, quickly dispensing of the Pacers before laying one of the worst smackdowns the Bucks have seen all year in Game One...felt like they'd gotten it together and were ready to go on a run...but there was no run. The Bucks got their game back together and easily whipped the Celtics through the next four matches. The first game was an aberration, the next four were more realistic.
The good news for the Celtics: Jaylen Brown looked really good and Marcus Smart is poised to be a fan favorite for the foreseeable future; the bad news: Jason Tatum is kinda dull, Aaron Baynes provided no spark (as he did last year), Al Horford played out of his mind in Game One but never came close to sustaining that through a complete series, Gordon Hayward is still a mystery, as is Robert Williams, and Kyrie Irving (and Terry Rozier and Marcus Morris) are probably gone for good. Going forward for the Celtics the F rotation (Hayward, Brown, Tatum) is solid and big man rotation (Horford, Baynes, Williams) is promising, I suggest they draft nothing but PGs with their three 1st rd picks and aim for a free agent like...uh...maybe Rajon Rondo...or Isiah Thomas.
Warriors over Rockets in 6 (I said Warriors in 7)
I was really shocked by last night's Warrior win, I just assumed the Rockets would show up and blast through the Durant-less Warriors at home but did not happen. The Warriors were pretty good, they came to play and returned better than the Rockets could give. Klay has played well on defense in this series but Game Six was his first notable shooting night, Curry was invisible in the 1st half but dominated the 2nd, Iguodala was good (he's been up/down throughout the series), Livingston was okay (he had been kinda bad, I thought, against the Rockets), Andrew Bogut was not too bad (I think Looney is more useful in every way, I just don't see why Bogut is playing as much as he is), Looney had his moments, Quinn Cook was an interesting change of pace (though not much more than that), and Draymond was excellent (their MVP in this series, I'd say). The Warriors without Durant are still the best team left (which is another fascinating detail about the upcoming off-season). The Rockets just couldn't muster enough offense even though Chris Paul had one of his best games as a Rocket (*).
The good news for the Rockets: they've still got James Harden and Clint Capela for 4 more years and reasonable deals with PJ Tucker, Eric Gordon and Nene. The bad news is they still owe Chris Paul $120m. Ouch! And they're already over the salary cap for next year so they've got moves to make but every single one of them will be unnaturally expensive. They've still got a promising core, all they gotta do is beat the Warriors.
And two Game Sevens on Mother's Day!
I can see the Sixers-Raptors game being a blowout, one of these teams is going to be vastly better than the other and I think we'll know by the start of the 4th quarter. When the Sixers play good team defense and everyone is knocking down shots, I think they're the best team in the league--no shit: I think they could beat the Warriors!--but the chances of them doing that more than once every seven games is not likely. They've already played really well in Game Two and Game Six, so the chances they give three badass efforts against the same squad just does not seem likely to me. That said, if the Raptors get punched in the mouth, this team could absolutely fall apart: Lowry, Ibaka, Gasol, Green and Siakam are all totally capable of disappearing and Kawhi can be the lead dog but he can't carry a team all by himself, so if the Sixers are hitting on all cylinders, then the Raptors falling completely flat is a definite possibility. But I think the Raptors hitting shots and controlling the action is more likely than the Sixers doing that. So I'll take the Raptors to finish the series.
I had the Blazers in 7 coming in and I can see that happening. But I think the Nuggets are slightly better, Jokic is maybe the most dependable player in the league right now, and Denver has a kooky home court advantage, so I'll switch and go with the Nuggets here. These two teams are so evenly matched that the slightest variation in game play could produce a decisive result: say, Will Barton gets three steals or Al-Farouk Aminu gets 4 blocks or CJ McCollum picks up a cheap foul right before halftime--those are the little things that could be the tipping point. That's how close these teams are! If the Blazers shoot well from 3 and keep the Nuggets off the offensive glass, they can win; if the Nuggets shoot well from 3 and minimize turnovers, they can win. We'll see. Jokic and Lillard are probably my two favorite players to watch right now, sorry that one of them has to lose. I'll take the Nuggets to move on and face the Warriors.
(*) 7 minutes left, Chris Paul has 25 points. They've just shown a graphic that Paul and Harden have never scored 30 in the same game. I thought right then, 'Paul's not getting 30 tonight.' Sure enough: he squirted loose for an easy layup, otherwise never came close to scoring in the last 5 minutes.
Saturday, May 19, 2018
2018-19 Philadelphia Sixers
2017-18: 52-30 (3rd in the East, lost in the 2nd round)
Draft picks: 10,26,38,39,56,60
Signed for next season ($70.5m): Joel Embiid, Robert Covington, Jerryd Bayless, Markelle Fultz, Ben Simmons, Dario Saric, Justin Anderson, Furkan Korkmaz, TJ McConnell, Richaun Holmes, Timothe Luwawu
This summer's free agents: JJ Reddick, Amir Johnson, Marco Belinelli, Ersan Ilyasova, Demetrius Jackson
Their veterans are all free agents, which ones do they bring back? The Sixers will still need 3-4 vets to fill out the roster and they may well decide that Reddick, Johnson, Ilyasova and Belinelli are the right guys for them but they also have a ton of money to spend, a top ten pick and a full year of Markelle Fultz on the way. Personally I'd keep Belinelli and let the other three walk but I have no sense of what the Sixers will do. Jackson is on a 2-way contract.
Okay, let me start by saying Philly was probably the team I watched most this year (Jazz and Kings would round out my top three). One weird observation: I don't know that any of these guys actually like each other; Simmons and Covington are classic in-their-own-head kinda guys; Saric and McConnell are outgoing but nobody knows what they're talking about; Embiid is on his own planet. Fultz, Korkmaz, Luwawu all seem like nice guys but have yet to prove anything; I wouldn't be surprised if all the veterans are gone next year; Coach Brown has been through the tough times, are we sure he's ready for the good times? GM Colangelo inherited a raft of talent and so far has done nothing but wildly overpay for Fultz (and get nothing out of Jahlil Okafor). My observation was that the Sixers were better than the Celtics, who seem to be on their way to the Finals, so what changes do they need to make going forward?
First thing to remember is in 2 years, they'll have to re-sign Simmons and Saric (and possibly Fultz, Korkmaz and Luwawu), but until then they've got tons of money to spend. (Yeah...like...Lebron money) So who should they go get? I say there are four players for the Sixers to wheel and deal for: 1) Jaysun Tatum (not gonna happen), 2) Kevin Durant (he could be out there this summer, but I doubt it), 3) Kawhi Leonard (he fits perfectly, totally worth the money, but probably the most expensive to acquire), 4) Klay Thompson (bingo!).
Pointless trade idea: Sixers get Klay Thompson; Warriors get #10 pick and JJ Reddick (sign and trade; say, 3yrs/$45m).
This year in the playoffs I've been most impressed by Al Horford first and Klay second. When Klay is on, the game is over, he is so money, yet so disciplined, he'd be perfect with Simmons and Embiid and Saric and McConnell, he'd ice games for them, he is the perfect veteran/scoring machine for that crew. Hell I'd sign him to mega-monster whatever extension before the end of the summer. Lock this crew down for a stretch. And for the Warriors, they gotta pay KD again this summer and then lock down either Draymond or Klay...I think it's Draymond. I think Klay has better trade value, too, with 1yr/$18.9m left on his deal. Reddick may feel like redundancy but he is a helluva shooter and a reliable vet, Golden State can always use those. I suggest 3yrs/$45m, $15m/per seems reasonable to me, he's got good value, he knows how to contribute to a good team, 3 years at a good rate (bumping then declining: $14m, $19m, $12m), but Reddick plus the #10 pick is at least a defensible return for letting Klay leave town (they should take Saric, too); they'd rather have Klay but not a bad deal that saves money, gives them a hot shot rookie to throw in the mix (what if Trae Young falls there? Wow) and solidifies Draymond.
You've got to pair this crew with a veteran, who do you want? Demarcus Cousins...seriously, he'd be such a buzzkill for them. Even if the team was good, they'd be annoying and grumpy rather than fun to watch.
Lebron James? No. If I'm the Sixers I don't even want Lebron. Again the Sixers have 2 years before the bill comes due. They can comfortably go to Lebron and offer, say, 2yrs/$60, with the proviso that this is Ben's team, not Lebron's team and there will not--will not--be a 3rd year on the deal. I think Lebron can do much better than that somewhere, certainly Cleveland, probably many other places. So while I don't think Lebron-to-Philly is actually advantageous for either Lebron or the Sixers, I don't think it happens anyway. Why would the Sixers give Lebron more than any other team in the league, they are the most immune to his charms.
Paul George? No. Lemme ask you something: what the fuck has Paul George ever done? What big games did he win, which series did he drag his team past a goliath, how many times did he nail down the #1 seed or uplift a town so much as to transcend holy men and great statesmen? I think Paul George is a helluva player but why would the Sixers expect anything of him if they bring him in? They need to add a veteran to the youth movement but is it plainly obvious that Paul George is the right fit in any way? He's gonna command a huge paycheck, he's gonna steal attention and stats from the kids without necessarily contributing more wins--though clearly they'd be a good team. I'm not sure his style would mesh, I'm not convinced he makes Simmons or Embiid better players, I think he's a distraction rather than an addition. And a big money distraction, at that.
No, fuck all that, Sixers. I'd go after Marcus Smart, Aaron Gordon, and Enes Kanter. Smart is a free agent this summer, the Celtics choice: pay Smart now or pay Rozier next summer? I don't think they'll do both but I think Rozier's emergence in this playoff run has shown that he has more reliable (and cheaper) value as a 2nd string ball handler and scoring option than Smart's crazy highs/lows (though his highs are better than anything Rozier can do); I think the Celtics are a better team when Smart plays but I think Ainge reckons he can replace him, I think they let Smart walk. Sixers should be all over Marcus Smart. He's the veteran that just beat the youth movement through hard work and loyalty and love of the game and just a crazed desire to win, all of which these Sixers kids could really use. I think Smart forms a great platoon with Covington (I like Covington better coming off the bench, nice upgrade for the 2nd string), meshes perfectly with Simmons slashing and the Embiid down low takeovers. I say give Marcus Smart (say, 4yrs/$60m), with the instruction to go out there and win Defensive Player of the Year and next year in the playoffs, we want you punch Brad Stevens dead in the face, if Smart's down with all that, then welcome to the team, brother.
Aaron Gordon is a restricted free agent with the Magic. He's had moments of brilliance on both ends of the floor...but...just moments. Hey, I'm willing to chalk it up to Orlando just being bloody awful at everything for the last few years. I'd go hard after this reclamation project, that likes to move with the ball and knock down 3's, waterbug around the basket on the d side. Offer him 3yrs/$30m (team option 3rd year), tell him you want career highs in FG%, Free Throw Attempts and Defensive Rebounds. Simmons and Embiid are the stars, no need to unbalance that. Gordon is another young athlete to throw in the mix that doesn't cost too much or take up too much oxygen, he knows how to play and he'll be another fun addition to the lineup.
If the Sixers want a big money free agent, how about Enes Kanter? He has a 1yr/$18.6m player option with the Knicks. He probably figures he can make than that and maybe he can. For the Sixers, Kanter can fill the 2 year window before the big contracts kick in. Kanter played with the crazed attack of Russell Westbrook, playing alongside Ben Simmons should be a boon for his FG%. Look, around the basket Kanter is great, really great, much better than you think kinda great; but, more than 5 feet from the hole, he gets pretty useless pretty fast. So the trick is to play him at center, hover around the basket for passes from Simmons or McConnell and collect the scraps from Embiid and Saric. I think he can be great with the Sixers. And, again, a reliable vet, not some attention hog that needs all the money. For 2 years he can come in and contribute (then they probably let him move on). For 2yrs/$45m does that budge Kanter to Philly?
Yes: the youth movement eventually needs a veteran to build around. But a guy like Lebron warps your franchise for a decade after he leaves, why throw in with that when you've already got the next two superstars in Simmons and Embiid? And a promising batch of cheap talent (Saric, Covington, McConnell, Fultz) around them with another batch of young talent to keep an eye on (Luwawu, Korkmaz). You've beaten the Lebron game, why play it? Stick with the greatest youth movement in eons, add more youth that everyone else gave up on (Smart, Gordon), get an underappreciated veteran to do his one thing really well (Kanter) and still have money to make moves at the deadline, without mortgaging your future to a guy that already is what he is. Durant is worth the effort, Kawhi (probably) is worth the effort and Klay Thompson is worth the effort (and Jaysun Tatum, but that ain't happening). That's it, Durant, Kawhi and Klay are really the only three in the league worth Machivellian moves this summer. I don't think Durant is truly available, I think Kawhi would be the most expensive move to make--the Sixers should go after Klay Thompson. What does it take to get Klay Thompson? I'd value Marcus Smart right alongside those guys because his presence really would be a game-changer for this team (and he's more likely to be available).
But, man, they don't need Lebron, they don't need Paul George or Cousins or Deandre or--OMG--Carmelo or Chris Paul or any of that stuff. There's a lot of hidden costs that come with guys like that. They're great players (well....not Carmelo) but a great player can be disruptive, they're not the process, they are where the process gets sidetracked. (Go get Klay!) Don't go nuts with the money just because you've got it. Go nuts when you can get what you want, not simply what's the most expensive.
Draft picks: 10,26,38,39,56,60
Signed for next season ($70.5m): Joel Embiid, Robert Covington, Jerryd Bayless, Markelle Fultz, Ben Simmons, Dario Saric, Justin Anderson, Furkan Korkmaz, TJ McConnell, Richaun Holmes, Timothe Luwawu
This summer's free agents: JJ Reddick, Amir Johnson, Marco Belinelli, Ersan Ilyasova, Demetrius Jackson
Their veterans are all free agents, which ones do they bring back? The Sixers will still need 3-4 vets to fill out the roster and they may well decide that Reddick, Johnson, Ilyasova and Belinelli are the right guys for them but they also have a ton of money to spend, a top ten pick and a full year of Markelle Fultz on the way. Personally I'd keep Belinelli and let the other three walk but I have no sense of what the Sixers will do. Jackson is on a 2-way contract.
Okay, let me start by saying Philly was probably the team I watched most this year (Jazz and Kings would round out my top three). One weird observation: I don't know that any of these guys actually like each other; Simmons and Covington are classic in-their-own-head kinda guys; Saric and McConnell are outgoing but nobody knows what they're talking about; Embiid is on his own planet. Fultz, Korkmaz, Luwawu all seem like nice guys but have yet to prove anything; I wouldn't be surprised if all the veterans are gone next year; Coach Brown has been through the tough times, are we sure he's ready for the good times? GM Colangelo inherited a raft of talent and so far has done nothing but wildly overpay for Fultz (and get nothing out of Jahlil Okafor). My observation was that the Sixers were better than the Celtics, who seem to be on their way to the Finals, so what changes do they need to make going forward?
First thing to remember is in 2 years, they'll have to re-sign Simmons and Saric (and possibly Fultz, Korkmaz and Luwawu), but until then they've got tons of money to spend. (Yeah...like...Lebron money) So who should they go get? I say there are four players for the Sixers to wheel and deal for: 1) Jaysun Tatum (not gonna happen), 2) Kevin Durant (he could be out there this summer, but I doubt it), 3) Kawhi Leonard (he fits perfectly, totally worth the money, but probably the most expensive to acquire), 4) Klay Thompson (bingo!).
Pointless trade idea: Sixers get Klay Thompson; Warriors get #10 pick and JJ Reddick (sign and trade; say, 3yrs/$45m).
This year in the playoffs I've been most impressed by Al Horford first and Klay second. When Klay is on, the game is over, he is so money, yet so disciplined, he'd be perfect with Simmons and Embiid and Saric and McConnell, he'd ice games for them, he is the perfect veteran/scoring machine for that crew. Hell I'd sign him to mega-monster whatever extension before the end of the summer. Lock this crew down for a stretch. And for the Warriors, they gotta pay KD again this summer and then lock down either Draymond or Klay...I think it's Draymond. I think Klay has better trade value, too, with 1yr/$18.9m left on his deal. Reddick may feel like redundancy but he is a helluva shooter and a reliable vet, Golden State can always use those. I suggest 3yrs/$45m, $15m/per seems reasonable to me, he's got good value, he knows how to contribute to a good team, 3 years at a good rate (bumping then declining: $14m, $19m, $12m), but Reddick plus the #10 pick is at least a defensible return for letting Klay leave town (they should take Saric, too); they'd rather have Klay but not a bad deal that saves money, gives them a hot shot rookie to throw in the mix (what if Trae Young falls there? Wow) and solidifies Draymond.
You've got to pair this crew with a veteran, who do you want? Demarcus Cousins...seriously, he'd be such a buzzkill for them. Even if the team was good, they'd be annoying and grumpy rather than fun to watch.
Lebron James? No. If I'm the Sixers I don't even want Lebron. Again the Sixers have 2 years before the bill comes due. They can comfortably go to Lebron and offer, say, 2yrs/$60, with the proviso that this is Ben's team, not Lebron's team and there will not--will not--be a 3rd year on the deal. I think Lebron can do much better than that somewhere, certainly Cleveland, probably many other places. So while I don't think Lebron-to-Philly is actually advantageous for either Lebron or the Sixers, I don't think it happens anyway. Why would the Sixers give Lebron more than any other team in the league, they are the most immune to his charms.
Paul George? No. Lemme ask you something: what the fuck has Paul George ever done? What big games did he win, which series did he drag his team past a goliath, how many times did he nail down the #1 seed or uplift a town so much as to transcend holy men and great statesmen? I think Paul George is a helluva player but why would the Sixers expect anything of him if they bring him in? They need to add a veteran to the youth movement but is it plainly obvious that Paul George is the right fit in any way? He's gonna command a huge paycheck, he's gonna steal attention and stats from the kids without necessarily contributing more wins--though clearly they'd be a good team. I'm not sure his style would mesh, I'm not convinced he makes Simmons or Embiid better players, I think he's a distraction rather than an addition. And a big money distraction, at that.
No, fuck all that, Sixers. I'd go after Marcus Smart, Aaron Gordon, and Enes Kanter. Smart is a free agent this summer, the Celtics choice: pay Smart now or pay Rozier next summer? I don't think they'll do both but I think Rozier's emergence in this playoff run has shown that he has more reliable (and cheaper) value as a 2nd string ball handler and scoring option than Smart's crazy highs/lows (though his highs are better than anything Rozier can do); I think the Celtics are a better team when Smart plays but I think Ainge reckons he can replace him, I think they let Smart walk. Sixers should be all over Marcus Smart. He's the veteran that just beat the youth movement through hard work and loyalty and love of the game and just a crazed desire to win, all of which these Sixers kids could really use. I think Smart forms a great platoon with Covington (I like Covington better coming off the bench, nice upgrade for the 2nd string), meshes perfectly with Simmons slashing and the Embiid down low takeovers. I say give Marcus Smart (say, 4yrs/$60m), with the instruction to go out there and win Defensive Player of the Year and next year in the playoffs, we want you punch Brad Stevens dead in the face, if Smart's down with all that, then welcome to the team, brother.
Aaron Gordon is a restricted free agent with the Magic. He's had moments of brilliance on both ends of the floor...but...just moments. Hey, I'm willing to chalk it up to Orlando just being bloody awful at everything for the last few years. I'd go hard after this reclamation project, that likes to move with the ball and knock down 3's, waterbug around the basket on the d side. Offer him 3yrs/$30m (team option 3rd year), tell him you want career highs in FG%, Free Throw Attempts and Defensive Rebounds. Simmons and Embiid are the stars, no need to unbalance that. Gordon is another young athlete to throw in the mix that doesn't cost too much or take up too much oxygen, he knows how to play and he'll be another fun addition to the lineup.
If the Sixers want a big money free agent, how about Enes Kanter? He has a 1yr/$18.6m player option with the Knicks. He probably figures he can make than that and maybe he can. For the Sixers, Kanter can fill the 2 year window before the big contracts kick in. Kanter played with the crazed attack of Russell Westbrook, playing alongside Ben Simmons should be a boon for his FG%. Look, around the basket Kanter is great, really great, much better than you think kinda great; but, more than 5 feet from the hole, he gets pretty useless pretty fast. So the trick is to play him at center, hover around the basket for passes from Simmons or McConnell and collect the scraps from Embiid and Saric. I think he can be great with the Sixers. And, again, a reliable vet, not some attention hog that needs all the money. For 2 years he can come in and contribute (then they probably let him move on). For 2yrs/$45m does that budge Kanter to Philly?
Yes: the youth movement eventually needs a veteran to build around. But a guy like Lebron warps your franchise for a decade after he leaves, why throw in with that when you've already got the next two superstars in Simmons and Embiid? And a promising batch of cheap talent (Saric, Covington, McConnell, Fultz) around them with another batch of young talent to keep an eye on (Luwawu, Korkmaz). You've beaten the Lebron game, why play it? Stick with the greatest youth movement in eons, add more youth that everyone else gave up on (Smart, Gordon), get an underappreciated veteran to do his one thing really well (Kanter) and still have money to make moves at the deadline, without mortgaging your future to a guy that already is what he is. Durant is worth the effort, Kawhi (probably) is worth the effort and Klay Thompson is worth the effort (and Jaysun Tatum, but that ain't happening). That's it, Durant, Kawhi and Klay are really the only three in the league worth Machivellian moves this summer. I don't think Durant is truly available, I think Kawhi would be the most expensive move to make--the Sixers should go after Klay Thompson. What does it take to get Klay Thompson? I'd value Marcus Smart right alongside those guys because his presence really would be a game-changer for this team (and he's more likely to be available).
But, man, they don't need Lebron, they don't need Paul George or Cousins or Deandre or--OMG--Carmelo or Chris Paul or any of that stuff. There's a lot of hidden costs that come with guys like that. They're great players (well....not Carmelo) but a great player can be disruptive, they're not the process, they are where the process gets sidetracked. (Go get Klay!) Don't go nuts with the money just because you've got it. Go nuts when you can get what you want, not simply what's the most expensive.
Monday, April 30, 2018
2017-18 NBA Playoffs (2nd round)
East
Sixers-Celtics
The Sixers mercilessly battered the Heat in five games and looked like one of the best teams of the post-season; the Celtics kept Giannis at bay and never succumbed to the Bucks' strategy of slogging game play. The Celtics got great work from the Horford-Brown-Tatum line but if Brown is hurt (out for Game One at least), that's gonna be tough for them to make up. They got Marcus Smart back, they got Terry Rozier full-on minutes as the team leader and they do have the best coach in the sport in Brad Stevens, but I'm not seeing them outscoring the Sixers four out of seven times. I like the Sixers in 6: either Game One or Two in Boston, win both games back in Philly and then wrap it up back home in six. The Celtics got savvy, though, it would be a great win for them if they could halt the Philly youth.
Cavs-Raptors
Well, well, well. The Raptors winning Game Six in Washington was, I think, a big win for a team that needs all the big wins they can get; the Cavs going seven games against the Pacers, only surviving because Lebron did everything is, on the other hand, a worrying sign. Lebron has had played more minutes this year than ever before and logged more games in the 1st round than ever before and has fewer reliable teammates than ever before. If any single player can will their squad past the #1 team in the conference it is Lebron. And if there's any #1 seed that's just dying to give a series away it is the Raptors. I think the Raptors are more complete than the Pacers so if they just stay straight, they're on track to get to seven games with the Cavs. Who ya got in Game Seven? That's a tough one, I'll take the Raptors in 7. That said, if Lebron wants to win, it certainly could happen.
West
Pelicans 101-123 Warriors
Warriors played their most complete game in several weeks and the Pelicans looked shellshocked out there. If Iguodala shoots like that again and Looney and Livingston give good minutes off the bench, then the Pelicans could be in quick trouble. But I don't think it'll be that easy for the Warriors. I think the Pelicans came into this first game with a boxer's mentality: they wanted to take a few hits and see if they could roll with it. The answer is no. They need to came out swinging, scoring or at least controlling the offense. I think they can do that and if so, they can put the Warrior role players in the spin cycle and run up points at a more efficient clip. This series isn't over, I don't think Game One is representative of what the Pelicans can do, while I thought it was showed the Warriors at near perfection.
Jazz 96-110 Rockets
If the Jazz don't get Ricky Rubio back soon, then this series could be over. The Rockets control the ball, they are in control. My feeling was that the Rockets would struggle to score and the consistent Jazz would hang and then surpass them; that's not what happened in Game One. And without Rubio, it'll be tough for the Jazz to get their roll going. That said, I still have faith that the Rockets will give the Jazz the opportunity to hang around, which could be enough for the Jazz to get back into it. The Jazz have enough to beat the Rockets but they need Harden and Paul to falter.
Sixers-Celtics
The Sixers mercilessly battered the Heat in five games and looked like one of the best teams of the post-season; the Celtics kept Giannis at bay and never succumbed to the Bucks' strategy of slogging game play. The Celtics got great work from the Horford-Brown-Tatum line but if Brown is hurt (out for Game One at least), that's gonna be tough for them to make up. They got Marcus Smart back, they got Terry Rozier full-on minutes as the team leader and they do have the best coach in the sport in Brad Stevens, but I'm not seeing them outscoring the Sixers four out of seven times. I like the Sixers in 6: either Game One or Two in Boston, win both games back in Philly and then wrap it up back home in six. The Celtics got savvy, though, it would be a great win for them if they could halt the Philly youth.
Cavs-Raptors
Well, well, well. The Raptors winning Game Six in Washington was, I think, a big win for a team that needs all the big wins they can get; the Cavs going seven games against the Pacers, only surviving because Lebron did everything is, on the other hand, a worrying sign. Lebron has had played more minutes this year than ever before and logged more games in the 1st round than ever before and has fewer reliable teammates than ever before. If any single player can will their squad past the #1 team in the conference it is Lebron. And if there's any #1 seed that's just dying to give a series away it is the Raptors. I think the Raptors are more complete than the Pacers so if they just stay straight, they're on track to get to seven games with the Cavs. Who ya got in Game Seven? That's a tough one, I'll take the Raptors in 7. That said, if Lebron wants to win, it certainly could happen.
West
Pelicans 101-123 Warriors
Warriors played their most complete game in several weeks and the Pelicans looked shellshocked out there. If Iguodala shoots like that again and Looney and Livingston give good minutes off the bench, then the Pelicans could be in quick trouble. But I don't think it'll be that easy for the Warriors. I think the Pelicans came into this first game with a boxer's mentality: they wanted to take a few hits and see if they could roll with it. The answer is no. They need to came out swinging, scoring or at least controlling the offense. I think they can do that and if so, they can put the Warrior role players in the spin cycle and run up points at a more efficient clip. This series isn't over, I don't think Game One is representative of what the Pelicans can do, while I thought it was showed the Warriors at near perfection.
Jazz 96-110 Rockets
If the Jazz don't get Ricky Rubio back soon, then this series could be over. The Rockets control the ball, they are in control. My feeling was that the Rockets would struggle to score and the consistent Jazz would hang and then surpass them; that's not what happened in Game One. And without Rubio, it'll be tough for the Jazz to get their roll going. That said, I still have faith that the Rockets will give the Jazz the opportunity to hang around, which could be enough for the Jazz to get back into it. The Jazz have enough to beat the Rockets but they need Harden and Paul to falter.
Sunday, June 28, 2015
Draft Evaluation (Atlantic)
Wizards (#15 Oubre (trade), #49 White) Oubre is high risk/reward, they're hoping an Oubre/Porter platoon can replace Paul Pierce. They'd love to get decent cheap bench minutes down low out of White as he'll be cheap enough he might make the roster (if Summer League isn't a disaster). Wall, Beal, Webster, Gortat, Nene is the starting five. Humphries off the bench down low, Oubre and Porter off the bench on the wings, Sessions for PG. Solid enough for the East but not a lot of flexibility though there are still roster spots to fill. Does this team beat the Pacers or Hawks in the playoffs? Too early to say.
Celtics (#16 Rozier, #28 Hunter, #33 Mickey, #45 Thornton) Risk/reward kinda draft. Hunter might be a for-real scorer...or he might be utterly awful. Rozier might be a confident ballhandler and playmaker...or he might be overmatched at the next level. Mickey might be a nasty defender down low or a ball hawking rebounder...or he might be a career D-league. Thornton might be...I dunno who he is...but he might something other than what he's supposed to be. The Celtics kinda got stuck in the middle with this draft: they need to draft their stars, they can't count on free agency. Ainge has drafted well over the years and I think they did well again with this haul, but there aren't any stars in there, just another batch of nice role players. The Celtics must have a big trade this summer, we'll see what comes.
Nets (#23 Hollis-Jefferson (trade), #29 McCullough) McCullough is hurt, probably won't play this year. Hollis-Jefferson is expected to be an all-world on-ball defender but not much else. The Nets have to get cheaper, can't imagine they'll be any good at all this year (but I thought that last summer and they still made the playoffs). These picks are for the future, the cheaper, younger future.
Sixers (#3 Okafor, #35 Hernangomez, #37 Holmes, #47 Gudaitis, #58 Tokoto, #60 Mitrovic) I think Okafor and Nerlens can play together, if so expect Embiid to be available by the 2016 draft. I think all 3 of the 2nd round foreigners are for the future, and as for Holmes and Tokoto, they'll get a chance because the Sixers are still dedicated to sucking for one more year at least. This year is about finding out if Nerlens and Okafor make a good combo, if so then there is finally something to build around. Expect the Sixers to earn themselves another lottery pick next year, add in 1st rounders from the Heat (probably around #25 or so) and the Lakers (mid-teens, maybe lottery), and whatever they can get for Embiid (I'd think a top ten 2016, another 1st rounder 2017). I think next summer is the time the Sixers have targeted to make their splash in free agency (....or perhaps they'll never make that splash and just keep accumulating value in the form of draft picks rather than W's).
Knicks (#4 Porzingis, #19 Grant (trade)) I can understand the NYK faithful to be gunshy about another Euro wunderkind and, hey man, Phil would've rather been anywhere than #4 in this draft. But the buzz is the kid can play. Frankly the Knicks are more dangerous to his future than the other way around. I wish the kid well, his highlights are pretty sick and before you call him tiny, he's actually bigger and stronger than Anthony Davis. If he's good in New York, the Knicks will be building around him soon enough; if he's not, Utah Jazz might be up for a blockbuster trade.
Celtics (#16 Rozier, #28 Hunter, #33 Mickey, #45 Thornton) Risk/reward kinda draft. Hunter might be a for-real scorer...or he might be utterly awful. Rozier might be a confident ballhandler and playmaker...or he might be overmatched at the next level. Mickey might be a nasty defender down low or a ball hawking rebounder...or he might be a career D-league. Thornton might be...I dunno who he is...but he might something other than what he's supposed to be. The Celtics kinda got stuck in the middle with this draft: they need to draft their stars, they can't count on free agency. Ainge has drafted well over the years and I think they did well again with this haul, but there aren't any stars in there, just another batch of nice role players. The Celtics must have a big trade this summer, we'll see what comes.
Nets (#23 Hollis-Jefferson (trade), #29 McCullough) McCullough is hurt, probably won't play this year. Hollis-Jefferson is expected to be an all-world on-ball defender but not much else. The Nets have to get cheaper, can't imagine they'll be any good at all this year (but I thought that last summer and they still made the playoffs). These picks are for the future, the cheaper, younger future.
Sixers (#3 Okafor, #35 Hernangomez, #37 Holmes, #47 Gudaitis, #58 Tokoto, #60 Mitrovic) I think Okafor and Nerlens can play together, if so expect Embiid to be available by the 2016 draft. I think all 3 of the 2nd round foreigners are for the future, and as for Holmes and Tokoto, they'll get a chance because the Sixers are still dedicated to sucking for one more year at least. This year is about finding out if Nerlens and Okafor make a good combo, if so then there is finally something to build around. Expect the Sixers to earn themselves another lottery pick next year, add in 1st rounders from the Heat (probably around #25 or so) and the Lakers (mid-teens, maybe lottery), and whatever they can get for Embiid (I'd think a top ten 2016, another 1st rounder 2017). I think next summer is the time the Sixers have targeted to make their splash in free agency (....or perhaps they'll never make that splash and just keep accumulating value in the form of draft picks rather than W's).
Knicks (#4 Porzingis, #19 Grant (trade)) I can understand the NYK faithful to be gunshy about another Euro wunderkind and, hey man, Phil would've rather been anywhere than #4 in this draft. But the buzz is the kid can play. Frankly the Knicks are more dangerous to his future than the other way around. I wish the kid well, his highlights are pretty sick and before you call him tiny, he's actually bigger and stronger than Anthony Davis. If he's good in New York, the Knicks will be building around him soon enough; if he's not, Utah Jazz might be up for a blockbuster trade.
Wednesday, May 13, 2015
A thought about the upcoming lottery selection day
Philly possesses the 1st round picks of the Lakers (top 5 protected) and the Heat (top 10 protected). Currently the Lakers sit at #4, the Heat at #10 and the Sixers would be left waiting til next year. But if the balls ping pong just right, the Sixers could end up with 3 of the top 11 picks.
I'd like to say its a game changer, that the Sixers could trade 2 of those picks and bring in a badass player (say, Al Horford) to go with Nerlens, Embiid, (presumably) D'Angelo Russell, and still have plenty of room to go grab another nice free agent (how would Monta Ellis look in a Sixer uni?). They'd still be a raggedy crew but they'd have a real scoring punch to go with their solid young D and, man, they might be looking good in the East next year. And next summer as the salary cap rises, they can bring over Dario Saric and pitch Kevin Durant a white picket fence dream home. Sounds good, don't it?
They won't do that though. They'll draft two European guys and tank next year trying to work another year of lottery. They fetishize draft picks but a glut of them is actually kinda dangerous, that future potential needs to be re-invested into current capital expenditure (re: on-court production) or else you'll have a bumper crop of rookies dying on the vine. If the Sixers end up with 3 lottery picks this year, then now is the time to spend money because 4 new rookies next year is not gonna get it done even in the East.
I'd like to say its a game changer, that the Sixers could trade 2 of those picks and bring in a badass player (say, Al Horford) to go with Nerlens, Embiid, (presumably) D'Angelo Russell, and still have plenty of room to go grab another nice free agent (how would Monta Ellis look in a Sixer uni?). They'd still be a raggedy crew but they'd have a real scoring punch to go with their solid young D and, man, they might be looking good in the East next year. And next summer as the salary cap rises, they can bring over Dario Saric and pitch Kevin Durant a white picket fence dream home. Sounds good, don't it?
They won't do that though. They'll draft two European guys and tank next year trying to work another year of lottery. They fetishize draft picks but a glut of them is actually kinda dangerous, that future potential needs to be re-invested into current capital expenditure (re: on-court production) or else you'll have a bumper crop of rookies dying on the vine. If the Sixers end up with 3 lottery picks this year, then now is the time to spend money because 4 new rookies next year is not gonna get it done even in the East.
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