2022-23 NBA Finals (2 games in)

Heat 93-104 Nuggets

Heat 111-108 Nuggets

Weird coupla games. The Nuggets played their two worst games of the playoffs so far. But in Game One they won handily and in Game Two they had a chance to tie it up at the buzzer. 

The Heat definitely figured some things out in Game Two. On offense: just keep swinging the ball around and the Nuggets will eventually either fall asleep or make a dumb foul. Yeah, the Nuggets suck on defense and if you keep moving the ball, they will falter; oddly, I think this works better without Jimmy Butler on the floor, so this is more a strategy for the Kyle Lowry-Duncan Robinson-Cody Zeller unit, but I think it is a good strategy. And on defense: use the 2-1-2 zone to keep Jokic on an island. I was really surprised at how well it worked, it impeded the flow and kept the Nuggets out of their routine. If the Heat can keep that up, the Nuggets offense becomes quite a bit less than the juggernaut it has been. 

The Nuggets, on the other hand, played badly, still won and almost won again. The Nuggets are a finesse team and they haven't had to deal with the toughness that Miami brings. The Wolves, Suns and Lakers don't play that way, so even when the Nuggets were tested, it wasn't that kind of test. Can they respond to what the Heat are doing? Can the Nuggets keep the ball moving on offense and minimize dumb mistakes on defense? I think the answer to both questions is "YES"!

I've been picking against the Heat all along but I've told myself that I was mistaken about their opponents rather than them. The Heat play tough and they hang around and when they sniff weakness, they pounce, they play opportunistically and wait for the other side to cave. It worked in Game Two but let's be honest: if the Nuggets pull their shit together 60 seconds earlier, they probably would've won the game. In two games the Heat have forced the Nuggets to play horribly but outside of a nice 4th quarter run, the Heat haven't really been able to answer. Can the Heat keep the Nuggets faltering? I don't think so.

I think Jokic realizes his chance to win a title, I think Jamal Murray is ready to get hot, I think KCP, Aaron Gordon, Jeff Green and Bruce Brown are ready to step up and do some real goon squad shit....the one I worry about is Michael Porter but its hard to imagine him playing worse then he did in Game Two and I think he can still get buckets. I think Coach Malone sees what needs to be done (the Nuggets need to play tougher on defense!) and the crew will respond. As much as I love Coach Spo and admire Butler, I don't think the Heat can go up another level and I don't think the Nuggets can be as bad as they've bad so far. I think Jokic and Murray will figure it out (the key is to have a massive lead in the 4th quarter!). 

So while everyone else is zigging, I'm gonna zag (and play right into the same mistake I've been making throughout the playoffs so far): I think the Nuggets will pummel the shit out of the Heat over the next three games. Let me repeat: PUMMEL DA SHIT out of the Heat. I said Nuggets in 5 and I haven't changed my mind. I knew the Heat would get a W, they did it earlier than I thought (*), but I still don't think they're the better team or will outscore the Nuggets again in this series. The Bucks, the Knicks and the Celtics were all ready to lose, I don't think that's true of the Nuggets. I think they've been punched in the face for the first time this post-season and I think they're ready to go full spazz attack on the Heat. 

Yeah, I said it: I like the Nuggets big in each of the next three games. 

(*) Reminds me of Bucks-Bulls in the 1st round last year. That series had gentleman's sweep written all over it, just a matter of whether the Bulls would win Game Three (and make it look like a series) or Game Four (when the Bucks take the night off and let the Bulls have one last W for the home folks). Well, the Bulls won Game Two in Milwaukee and for a minute, everyone wondered what was going on. Then the Bucks laid the smack down and reminded us all that they were way better than the Bulls. I feel like that's gonna happen here, too.

2022-23 NBA Finals

Game Seven: Heat 103-84 Celtics

Jaysun Tatum twisted his ankle on basically the first play of the game and never looked right after that. Jaylen Brown hit some shots but was mostly a turnover machine and no one else get buckets at all. The Heat were resolute and did what they needed to do, but honestly this game was pretty much over well before the end of the 1st quarter.

Last year the Celtics were a disaster for the first coupla months of the season, then the extremely loud teachings of Ime Udoka finally sank in and their defense was phenomenal for a good six months. They blasted their way through the playoffs and ran out of gas in the Finals against the Warriors, who were feeling it. 

In the off-season Coach Udoka was let go due to some kind of improper relationship (does anyone actually know anything about that?) and shortly before opening night, Joe Mazzulla was tabbed to be the head coach. The Celtics started the season strong and though there were doubts about Coach Joe and one bad stretch in March, the Celtics finished 2nd in the East, which is about right. Felt like the Bucks were better but no one else was and the course was set for a Bucks-Celtics East final. Even though the Celtics were sloppy at the ends of games all year long, they won enough to expect a deep run. And after the Bucks got knocked out, the Celtics became the clear favorite even though they dangerously fucked around with the Hawks (woefully outmanned) and the Sixers (Embiid but not much else). Then they fell down 3-0 to the Heat. Showed real grit in Game Four, had a bust out performance in Game Five, got lucky as hell in Game Six (though really were the better team for most of the game) and a historic comeback was well underway. But....didn't happen. The Celtics didn't show, Coach Joe had nothing and the Celtic fans lost interest quick. 

Which brings us to the Finals....

Let's recap the Nuggets' path. They dropped 1 game to the Wolves--a road game they weren't even trying to win and still took to overtime. They dropped 2 games to the Suns--both on the road and both sporting monster performances from Devin Booker and Kevin Durant. And they swept the Lakers--though to be fair, all 4 games were close and the Lakers had an amazing run of their own to get there. 

As for the Heat, they caught the Bucks not ready to play--the Bucks to me looked like they just expected to win regardless of their effort or skill. They quickly wore down the Knicks--a nice team on the rise but the 2nd round was as far as they were ever going to go. They caught the neurotic Celtics unable to consistently find a game plan. 

Do you see my point here? The Heat advanced because they were up against weak teams that weren't ready to win. That description does not fit the Nuggets. Yes, I picked against the Heat 3 straight times and I was wrong every time--but I was wrong about their opponents, not about the Heat. Each time I expected the other team to do more than than they were capable of doing and the Heat punished them (and me). Yeah, that ain't happening this time. Maybe I'm crazy for picking against the Heat again, but the Nuggets are better than all the teams in the East and they're balling like crazy. 

The Heat are shooting the ball out of their minds--can they improve? I don't see how. It'd be amazing if they continued what they were doing, but I don't see them getting better. Their chances of outscoring the Nuggets (especially in Denver) is very small. 

The Heat really only have one chance: if their defense can figure out how to bottle up Jokic, then they might have a chance. Of course, if Jokic is bottled, the Nuggets will still have other scorers and playmakers that can step up. And overplaying on defense will basically remove Bam Adebayo from the offense and/or run down Max Strus, so is that really even a good thing? The Nuggets don't stay cold for very long, so I just don't see anything the Heat can do to win games. 

I might've given the Celtics a puncher's chance in Game One at home, but I give no such chance to the Heat on the road. In fact, I give them no chance in Game Two either. The Heat can perhaps steal a game back home, but after 4 games I expect the Nuggets to be up 3-1 heading back to Denver for Game Five, which I do not expect the Heat to win.

I picked the Celtics over the Heat but I was lukewarm on that pick before the series and gave up on it even after the Celtics won 3 straight to get to Game Seven. The Heat have been great all post-season long, Jimmy Butler and Caleb Martin have both been great, Bam Adebayo and Max Strus and Gabe Vincent and Duncan Robinson have been very good, Kyle Lowry has had effective moments, even Heywood Highsmith had some nice run. They'll be getting Tyler Herro back, but outside of a potential burst in Games Three and/or Four, I don't see how he changes much. 

I haven't said much about the Nuggets because I don't have to. They've been the best team in the league pretty much all season long, Nikola Jokic is the best player in the NBA right now, Jamal Murray is ballin', Micheal Porter is playing the best ball of his life, Kentavius Caldwell-Pope and Jeff Green are the perfect complementary vets and Bruce Brown is arguably the best free agent signing of last summer. Coach Malone has long been under appreciated and he is about to get his due and Denver itself is arguably the single greatest home court advantage in all of American sports. The Heat have been great but the run ends here, all the sad sappy suckers are gone from the schedule. Nuggets in 5.

2019-20 NBA Pre-season (Northwest Division)

Nuggets
Out:
Isaiah Thomas, Tyler Lydon, Trey Lyles, Brandon Goodwin, Thomas Welsh, 2020 1st rd pick (top 10 protected)
Thomas didn't pan out, Lydon never found his footing in this rotation, I like Lyles but they didn't really need him and Goodwin and Welsh are gone, too, and that 1st rounder was redeemed for Jerami Grant, who would seem to be exactly what they need. No big losses here.

Re-signed:
Paul Millsap (team option; 1yr/$30.3m), Jamal Murray (extension 5yr/$195.6), Micheal Porter Jr (team exercised option; 2 yr)
Picking up the Millsap option was a surprise to me but the right move as it gives them continuity without taxing them in the long term. The long term money went to Murray, who had a solid post-season last year and it is always good to reward the talent and lock up the youth. And they get to add new talent that was in-house all along: Michael Porter Jr. Picking up his option is a confirmation of their belief that they've got something special (I'm eager to see it).

In:
Jerami Grant (trade; 1yr), Vlatko Cancar (3yr/$4.2m), PJ Dozier (1yr), Bol Bol,
They swapped a 1st rounder for Grant and given that I don't think that pick will be that great, it was the perfect move for the Nuggets. Grant will give them a freewheeling defender in the mold of their high octane offensive scheme. Bol is coming off a serious injury, not sure we'll see much of him, but getting him as a late 2nd rounder is ridiculous value, anything he delivers will be a bonus (and he might turn out to be really good as he was graded a top ten pick before last season).

Over/Under (52.5): I'm going way over
I think this team knows who they are, the big guys all got paid, the youngsters look promising, the altitude gives them an unnatural home court advantage and the coach knows how to handle it all. I got them finishing 1st in the West and getting to the conference finals (I also have Porter winning ROY and Coach Malone winning Coach of the Year).


Jazz
Out:
Naz Mitrou-Long, Tyler Cavanaugh, Raul Neto, David Stockton, Ekpe Udoh, Ricky Rubio, Thabo Sefolosha, Erik McCree, Grayson Allen, Jae Crowder, Kyle Korver, the rights to Darius Bazley, Derrick Favors, 2021 1st rd pick (top 7 protected)
Moving on from Rubio and Favors is gonna be the focus of the early part of this season, but otherwise these losses are rather minimal.

Re-signed:
Donovan Mitchell (team exercised option; 2yr), Tony Bradley (team exercised option; 2yr), coach Quin Snyder (multi-year extension)
I'm all about locking up Mitchell and Snyder long term, not sure what they see in Bradley, but the Jazz have always been big on holding on to their draftees.

In:
Mike Conley (trade; 2yr), Bojan Bogdanovic (4yr/$73.1m), Ed Davis (2yr/$9.8m), Emmanuel Mudiay (1/$1.7m), Jeff Green (1yr/$2.56m), Pelicans 2nd rd picks (2021, 2023)
All good! This is why people are excited about the Jazz this year! Conley is ready to be a on a good team again and the Jazz are going to be perfect for him. Bogdanovic gives them consistent 3-point shooting (and an unexpectedly good perimeter defender), Davis is good backup for Gobert, Mudiay is a distributor that should be a good fill in for Conley and Green has looked pretty great in pre-season. They made all the right moves to surround the rising core.

2nd rd draftees, 2-way contracts, Exhibition
Miye Oni (3yr/$4.2m), Jarrell Brantley, Justin Wright-Foreman, Stanton Kidd (3yr/$4.2m), Nigel Williams-Goss (3yr/$4.8m), Isaac Haas
I don't know any of these guys (but I gotta say: South Park was never the same after they killed off Isaac Haas).

Over/Under (53.5): I'm going over
This team is ready to blow up. And there's nothing better to do in Salt Lake City, so I fully expect this team to bringing it e'rry night.


Blazers
Out:
Evan Turner, Al-Farouq Aminu, Enes Kanter, Seth Curry, Moe Harkless, Meyers Leonard, Jake Layman
That's a lot of nice players but mostly 2nd string production, no huge losses but the accumulation clearly weakens their depth.

Re-signed:
Damian Lillard (extension; 5yr/$196m), Rodney Hood (2yr/$11.7m), CJ McCollum (extension; 3yr/$100m), Anfernee Simons (team exercised option; 2yr), Zach Collins (team exercised option; 2yr)
I'm a big fan of rewarding the players that gave the fans what they wanted and Lillard and McCollum did just that last year and deserve every penny they get; that said, this does hamstring the already hamstrung roster, but success deserved to be rewarded. Hood is a nice addition, I think he'll give them a little more scoring than Evan Turner (if a little less playmaking) at a very reasonable price point. Collins is ready to take off and, okay, I think we'll see this year if Anfernee Simons is worthy of all the hype (I think he will be).

In:
Kent Bazemore (trade; 1yr), Nas Little (2yr/$4.3m), Anthony Tolliver (1yr/$2.6m), Mario Hezonja (2yr/$3.7m), Pau Gasol (1yr/$2.6m), Hassan Whiteside (trade; 1yr), Moses Brown, Jaylen Hoard,
I've never been a huge fan of Bazemore or Tolliver and as great as Pau once was, he no longer is, so these moves don't appear to be a net positive. That said, I like Whiteside more than most and if he can establish a worthwhile defensive presence down low, it could transform their whole style. And I think Hezonja can (along with Hood) give them a decent playmaker to replace the underrated Turner. Whatever Little contributes is a bonus.

Over/Under (46.5): I got the over
They lost a lot, they didn't add much, so why am I going over? Because I don't think they have any moves to make, this is the team they got and they will ride it hard all year long. Does that make them a 50-win team? Well, the Blazers have flummoxed me over and over again over the years, I'm just expecting them to outperform because they always do.


Thunder
Out:
Jawun Evans, Ray Felton, Markieff Morris, Jerami Grant, Paul George, Deonte Graham, Patrick Patterson, Russell Westbrook,
Well, moving on from Westbrook is cutting ties to how this team has been run for almost a decade. Moving on from George is moving on from their last big move. Moving on from Evans, Felton, Morris, Grant and Patterson signals that their recent philosophy has simple not worked out. The house is freshly cleaned, what now?

Re-signed:
Nerlens Noel (1yr/$2m), Abdel Nader (guaranteed upcoming season), Deonte Burton (guaranteed upcoming season), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (team exercised option; 2yr), Terrance Ferguson (team exercised option; 2yr)
Nerlens never quite found his place in the league, he's one dimensional but he's really good at his one dimension (whispers are that he's an annoying weirdo in real life), I don't see him back next year so this is his audition for other teams (or becoming trade bait). Ferguson and SGA are the future and Burton and Nader are worthwhile players for now.

In:
Darius Bazley (4yr/$9m), Mike Muscala (2yr/$4.5m), Danilo Gallinari, Chris Paul, Justin Patton (2yr/$.5m), Luguentz Dort, Devon Hall, Clippers 2021, 2022, 2024, 2026 1st rd picks (rights to swap 1st rd picks in 2023, 2025), Rockets 2024, 2026 1st rd picks (rights to swap 1st rd picks in 2024, 2025), Grizzlies 2nd rd pick, Nuggets 2020 1st rd pick
Despite rumors that they are desperate to move Chris Paul (and Steven Adams), I think CP can be a great centerpiece going forward to shepherd the incoming rookies (and there are gonna be a ton in the next few years!). Furthermore, I think CP fits this team in a way that Westbrook didn't: namely, he'll keep the supporting cast active while Westbrook mostly left them standing around. I'm sure they're still trying to make big moves (throw Roberson and Shroeder in the trade rumors, as well), so this team will undoubtedly change a lot throughout the season. No telling what this team will be at this time next year. (Did anyone notice that they hired Dave Bliss as an assistant? Hmmmmmm.....that's a name I never thought I'd hear again)

Over/Under (31.5): I'm going way over
I think this team is lumpy and weird but there's enough veteran presence to keep the team straight and enough youth to keep mixing it up. Yeah, there are trades to make but I suspect this'll be a better-than-you-think kinda team, though I don't have them making the playoffs.


Wolves
Out:
Cam Reynolds, CJ Williams, Jared Terrell, Mitch Creek, Anthony Tolliver, Derrick Rose, Jerryd Bayless, Luol Deng, Taj Gibson, Dario Saric, Tyus Jones, the rights to Lior Eliyahu, Bojan Dubljevic
I'm a big fan of Dario Saric and I thought he fit what they were doing and Tyus Jones is a hometown favorite (but realistically no better than a 3rd string PG), but otherwise I think the Wolves can comfortably move on from these losses.

Re-signed: (none)

In:
Jarrett Culver (2yr/$11.9m), Noah Vonleh (1yr/$2m), Shabazz Napier, Traveon Graham, Jake Layman, Jordan Bell, Naz Reid (4yr/$6.1m), Jordan McLaughlin, Jaylen Nowell, Kelan Martin,
Coupla intriguing draft picks (Culver, Reid), coupla youngsters looking for another shot (Bell, Vonleh, Layman), coupla edge of the league guys (Graham, Napier), and some dudes I never heard of (McLaughlin, Nowell, Martin). Calling this a 'mixed bag' would really be overstating it, don't ya think?

Over/Under (35.5): I got the under
I still believe in KAT and Wiggins and Dieng, too, but they're paying way too much for way too little and that's a shame. I just don't see this team getting off the ground this season. (Look for Robert Covington to be the prized trade bait all through January) Next season will loosen up the cap and they'll have a sense of where to go with Bates-Diop, Okogie, Culver and Reid.

2019-20 Denver Nuggets

2018-19: 54-28 (2nd rd playoffs)
Draft picks: none

Signed for next season ($121.1m): Nikola Jokic, Gary Harris, Mason Plumlee, Will Barton, Jamal Murray, Michael Porter, Juan Hernangomez, Malik Beasley, Torrey Craig, Jarred Vanderbilt, Monte Morris
This is a good team with a lot of talent and lot of depth and still has a lot of youth, too. And we still haven't seen Michael Porter, could be a badass (though it seems less likely with every...year...that he misses).


This summer's free agents: Paul Millsap (team option), Trey Lyles, Isaiah Thomas, Tyler Lydon
I put Millsap down here because I just don't see how they can give $30m to an older guy that is still good but not that good. Millsap was underappreciated virtually every year of his career and it's kinda sad to him go out like this but $30m is a lot of money. (I think Enes Kanter would be a fit with a team that likes to attack the basket; could they sign him for 3yrs/$60m?)
I always liked Lyles at Kentucky (yeah, I thought he'd be better than Towns...I missed on that one), I still think he's a big guy with good hands and good instincts, if he can knock down 3's he'd be a hot commodity. He's still young enough to get another look on a team, maybe even the Nuggets, though I doubt it.
Isaiah Thomas was an interesting gamble last summer that turned out to be...well, not much. He wasn't expensive, he didn't play much, he didn't garner much attention. He was strangely invisible in Denver last year. If he still has anything left in the tank, he'll be headed elsewhere (Lakers for another 1yr/$2m deal, right?)
Lydon made no impression on me at all. I have no idea where he'll be next year.


Next year's lineup:
PG Murray, SG Harris, SF Morris, PF Plumlee, C Jokic with Barton, Beasley, Craig, Vanderbilt, Hernangomez and Morris (and Porter?).

I think last year's success was not a fluke--and I think they'll beat the Blazers if they see them in the playoffs again next year. Jokic is so unique and Murray is a for-real filler-upper and the rest of the cast fills in around those two poles and that's a goof thing. Yeah, I'd add Kanter to this lineup: good rebounder, good garbage man-type scorer, I think he can clean up a lot of spills for this team (and, yeah, he sucks at defense but this team will be looking to outscore everyone they play, this is an offensive squad not a defensive one).

2018-19 NBA Playoffs (Conference Finals)

Bucks over Celtics in 5 (I said Bucks in 7)
The Celtics were a mixed-up team all year long, went on a 5-game winning streak in the playoffs, quickly dispensing of the Pacers before laying one of the worst smackdowns the Bucks have seen all year in Game One...felt like they'd gotten it together and were ready to go on a run...but there was no run. The Bucks got their game back together and easily whipped the Celtics through the next four matches. The first game was an aberration, the next four were more realistic.

The good news for the Celtics: Jaylen Brown looked really good and Marcus Smart is poised to be a fan favorite for the foreseeable future; the bad news: Jason Tatum is kinda dull, Aaron Baynes provided no spark (as he did last year), Al Horford played out of his mind in Game One but never came close to sustaining that through a complete series, Gordon Hayward is still a mystery, as is Robert Williams, and Kyrie Irving (and Terry Rozier and Marcus Morris) are probably gone for good. Going forward for the Celtics the F rotation (Hayward, Brown, Tatum) is solid and big man rotation (Horford, Baynes, Williams) is promising, I suggest they draft nothing but PGs with their three 1st rd picks and aim for a free agent like...uh...maybe Rajon Rondo...or Isiah Thomas.

Warriors over Rockets in 6 (I said Warriors in 7)
I was really shocked by last night's Warrior win, I just assumed the Rockets would show up and blast through the Durant-less Warriors at home but did not happen. The Warriors were pretty good, they came to play and returned better than the Rockets could give. Klay has played well on defense in this series but Game Six was his first notable shooting night, Curry was invisible in the 1st half but dominated the 2nd, Iguodala was good (he's been up/down throughout the series), Livingston was okay (he had been kinda bad, I thought, against the Rockets), Andrew Bogut was not too bad (I think Looney is more useful in every way, I just don't see why Bogut is playing as much as he is), Looney had his moments, Quinn Cook was an interesting change of pace (though not much more than that), and Draymond was excellent (their MVP in this series, I'd say). The Warriors without Durant are still the best team left (which is another fascinating detail about the upcoming off-season). The Rockets just couldn't muster enough offense even though Chris Paul had one of his best games as a Rocket (*).

The good news for the Rockets: they've still got James Harden and Clint Capela for 4 more years and reasonable deals with PJ Tucker, Eric Gordon and Nene. The bad news is they still owe Chris Paul $120m. Ouch! And they're already over the salary cap for next year so they've got moves to make but every single one of them will be unnaturally expensive. They've still got a promising core, all they gotta do is beat the Warriors.


And two Game Sevens on Mother's Day!

I can see the Sixers-Raptors game being a blowout, one of these teams is going to be vastly better than the other and I think we'll know by the start of the 4th quarter. When the Sixers play good team defense and everyone is knocking down shots, I think they're the best team in the league--no shit: I think they could beat the Warriors!--but the chances of them doing that more than once every seven games is not likely. They've already played really well in Game Two and Game Six, so the chances they give three badass efforts against the same squad just does not seem likely to me. That said, if the Raptors get punched in the mouth, this team could absolutely fall apart: Lowry, Ibaka, Gasol, Green and Siakam are all totally capable of disappearing and Kawhi can be the lead dog but he can't carry a team all by himself, so if the Sixers are hitting on all cylinders, then the Raptors falling completely flat is a definite possibility. But I think the Raptors hitting shots and controlling the action is more likely than the Sixers doing that. So I'll take the Raptors to finish the series.

I had the Blazers in 7 coming in and I can see that happening. But I think the Nuggets are slightly better, Jokic is maybe the most dependable player in the league right now, and Denver has a kooky home court advantage, so I'll switch and go with the Nuggets here. These two teams are so evenly matched that the slightest variation in game play could produce a decisive result: say, Will Barton gets three steals or Al-Farouk Aminu gets 4 blocks or CJ McCollum picks up a cheap foul right before halftime--those are the little things that could be the tipping point. That's how close these teams are! If the Blazers shoot well from 3 and keep the Nuggets off the offensive glass, they can win; if the Nuggets shoot well from 3 and minimize turnovers, they can win. We'll see. Jokic and Lillard are probably my two favorite players to watch right now, sorry that one of them has to lose. I'll take the Nuggets to move on and face the Warriors.


(*) 7 minutes left, Chris Paul has 25 points. They've just shown a graphic that Paul and Harden have never scored 30 in the same game. I thought right then, 'Paul's not getting 30 tonight.' Sure enough: he squirted loose for an easy layup, otherwise never came close to scoring in the last 5 minutes.

Pointless Trade Idea

Celtics get PF Faried (4 yrs $50m/$11.2 next year); Nuggets get PF Wallace (1 yr/$10.1m), SG Young ($1.7m next year) and the 16th pick in the upcoming draft.

Would the Nuggets dump Faried for an expiring contract and a coupla prospects?  I wouldn't but the Nuggets seem eager to separate themselves from Faried, so all in all not a bad package.  Not sure if Wallace can be bought out but if so I guess they would; that would turn the $50m they owe Faried into two decent prospects (Young could still be a nice SG, maybe at 16 they can get PF Harrell to replace Faried).  Also, it would save them a coupla bucks to chase after one of the centers that will/may be available this summer (Stoudamire, Al Jefferson, pick-a-Lopez, Asik).

Would the Celtics flip Wallace, Young and a #16 pick for 4 years of Faried?  I would.  Wouldn't think twice about it.  Putting Faried with Smart and Bradley would give the Celtics a wickedly opportunistic defense (though points might be hard to come by) for the next 3-4 years.  And it would reconfigure their free agent needs: Kevin Love would be out, all eggs go in the Lamarcus Aldridge basket or perhaps a solid scoring SG or SF.

Great deal for the Celtics, so-so deal for the Nuggets.  Not sure why the Nuggets are eager to get rid of Faried but if they're serious about moving him, an expiring contract and a draft pick is probably the best they can hope for.

Game of the Week

(This game was from Dec 9...uhh, little late getting this up.  Did the work, just forgot write it up)

Nuggets at Raptors (-10)

The Nuggets (9-11. 11th in the West) have a great and unique home court advantage that gives them a reason to compete.  But in a tough Western Conference they look pretty mediocre.  They've got a lot of 'nice' players but lack that one guy that makes it all work.  Occasionally a rotation like that sneaks wins but usually it gets bested in the 4th quarter and this Nuggets team falls squarely in the latter group.  There's enough intriguing talents to go with the home court advantage to assume they'll be okay but probably not playoff-worthy (indeed, that combo probably makes them trade bait-worthy).  In the West good is not good enough so you gotta figure a nice East Coast road trip is exactly what the Nuggets need to get some easy W's, right?  Nope: @Hawks, @ Wizards, @Raptors in 4 days--doh!  Good luck with that.  Man, even the easy part of their schedule is letting them down this season.  Mediocre teams need all the extra luck they can get...and this ain't it.

The Raptors (15-5, 1st in the East) hit the ground running this year, just like I thought they would.  They've got good starting talent, a nice looking bench and they rounded into shape right at the end of the year, going down in the playoffs to the Paul Pierce-led Nets (words you won't read ever again, I bet).  I believe we haven't seen the best of the Raptors, even though DeRozan is out til the All-Star break apparently, they should have the depth to survive in the East.  I predicted they'd finish 1st in the East and I think I'll stick with that.

The Nuggets may look mediocre but West-mediocre is East-not bad. But I think the Raps (-10) will handle their business tonight on their home floor.

1st -- Raptors 35-30
2nd -- Raptors 27-22

Lot of minutes for Mozgov, especially considering he's expected to pick up the rebounding slack in the absence of Faried; Valanciunas over and over again got the better of Mozgov.  (Why isn't Faried working out in Denver this year?  Thought he was ready to have his blow-up year.  And where's Nurkic?)  Ty Lawson with 8 assists at half, he's balling.  Gallinari not getting a lot of minutes even though this is Denver's 3rd road game in 4 nights; he doesn't looks like he's gonna score out there tonight but shouldn't he be getting minutes just to fill space?  Wilson Chandler (trade bait d'jour!) was hot early on but disappeared by halftime; I know he's everybody's favorite swing man to be out on the trade market but I don't see much in his game outside of occasional hot shooting that contributes much.

Vazquez gets the start with DeRozan out, noticed Lou Williams subbed for Lowry, then Lowry came back after a break for Vazquez; seems like a lot of early minutes for a guy used to coming off the bench.  Raptors slowed down toward the end of the first half, the Nuggets cut into the lead with a late spurt.  The Raptors were by far the better team in the first but only up 10 at half.

3rd -- Nuggets 29-20
4th -- Nuggets 21-20
OT -- Raptors 10-5

The Raptors give up way too many offensive rebounds to the Nuggets, Nuggets finally get over their turnover problems and start knocking down some shots.  Patrick Patterson is one of the most under appreciated players in the league these days, off the bench he does a lot for this team, he can speed them up or slow them down, decent outside shooter, makes timely plays, good defender, etc.  James Johnson, too, is balling off the bench, he's got legit offensive moves, effortless with his back to the basket.  Lowry is the one that runs this team but Lou off the bench keeps it going; the combo of Lou Williams and Grievus Vazquez is what will keep the Raptors afloat while DeRozan convalesces.
The Nuggets made a game of it but the Raptors handled their business in OT like a veteran club should.  But kudos to the Nuggets for covering the spread.

Box Score Notes
Man, a ton of minutes for Nuggets starters: Mozgov and Lawson barely got off the floor--in at OT game?  On the 2nd night of a back-to-back?  3rd road game in 4 days?  Jeez, these guys are gonna be in shape (if they don't die).  And I thought the Nuggets problem was too many guys wanting too few minutes; not tonight.  Without Faried, McGee and Robinson (or Nurkic) that lineup is paper thin.  Mozgov went 7-14 from the floor, better than I noticed while watching; he hustles, big body, but he looked gassed by halftime.  Afflalo went 9-14 but had strangely little impact on the game, looks smooth when he's rolling but disappears for long stretches.  Lawson's a smart player, used the high screen to his advantage over and over.

Yowza!  All the 3-point shooting for the Raptors came from the bench: Patterson and Williams went 8-17, the starters went 1-16.  The fact that the Raptors are getting scoring and defense off the bench is what keeps them dangerous into the 4th quarter night after night.  13 assists for Lowry, 26/12 Valanciunas, Williams with 26 off the bench, Patterson chipping 19/8, good balance on this squad.