2023-24 NBA (End of season awards)

MVP

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder)

Gotta do it, man, he's just been so great this year leading the youngest team to ever finish 1st in the West. Head-to-head with Jokic, their numbers are comparable; Jokic kills Shai on Rebounds but Shai has more FTA and a better asst:to and, again, he finished first in the West, so....Shai had a great year, now time to do it in the post-season.

Runners-up: Nikola Jokic (Nuggets), Giannis Antetokounpo (Bucks), Luka Doncic (Mavs), Jalen Brunson (Knicks)

Rookie of the Year

Victor Wembanyama (Spurs)

Wemby led all rookies in FG, FGA, FT, FTA, offensive and defensive and total rebounds, steals, blocks (led the league--BY A MILE!), and points (also Turnovers, though 3rd in Assists). If Wemby never got any better than this, he'd still be in all-star contention every year but this is just the start for this guy. I thought that he would put up nice stats (he did better than that) on a shitty team (well, yeah) and he'd probably get shut down by season's end (nah, he did this in the next to last game of the season--a game the Nuggets actually needed to win!) and that we'd all look back and see that Holmgren was contributing as a rookie to a really good team (#1 in the West) and ultimately that would be more impressive to voters. Hey, man, don't wanna knock Chet--he was great--but Wemby did it all and looked better doing it. To me, ROY is a forward-looking award, namely who has the brightest future and if you want to argue that Chet contributing right away is better than putting up stats on a team not even trying to win, well, okay, that is a worthwhile data point in Chet's favor. But that's the only one. This is Wemby's league now, doubt that at your peril! Who else in the NBA does this?

Runner-ups: Chet Holmgren (Thunder), Brandon Miller (Hornets) (the top 3 is clear, the next 8-10 are purely subjective)

Defensive Player of the Year

Anthony Davis (Lakers)

Impressive season from Davis, wasn't sure he'd have another one, but he was healthier than he's been in his Laker tenure and played a ton of minutes. Only guy in the top 20 in Steals and Blocks (though still well behind rookie Wemby in Steals + Blocks) and 3rd overall in defensive rebounds. Throw in a positive assist:turnover rate and being top ten in free throw attempts and it is clear that he cleaned up on the defensive end and was still a load for his opponents on the offensive end. Davis had a great season and though I've predicted him to win DPOY for many years now, I believe this is the first time I ever thought he was truly worthy. 

Runner-ups: Victor Wembanyama (Spurs), Rudy Gobert (Wolves), Nikola Jokic (Nuggets), Giannis Antetokounpo (Bucks)

6th Man

Bogdan Bogdanovich (Hawks)

I thought Bogie had the best all-around numbers. Word is the Hawks will be going through a tumultuous off-season (either Trae Young or Dejounte Murray has to go), I'll be curious to see if anyone makes a big balls offer for this guy. 

Runner-ups: Bobby Portis (Bucks), Naz Reid (Wolves), Keldon Johnson (Spurs), Malik Monk (Kings)

Coach of the Year

Mark Daigneault (Thunder)

The Thunder became the youngest team to ever finish #1 in the West and obviously Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the main driver of that. But I'd say Daigneault's handling of the rest of the rotation (I love all of those guys!) put them over the top. A great season for the Thunder...now they gotta do it in the playoffs.

Runner-ups: Joe Mazzulo (Celtics), Chris Finch (Wolves), Ty Lue (Clippers), Ime Udoka (Rockets)

Executive of the Year

Brad Stevens (Celtics)

Bringing in Porzingis and Jrue Holiday (and giving extensions to both) vaulted the Celtics to one of the most dominating regular season teams we've seen in a while. Letting go of Marcus Smart (remember when he used to play for the Celtics?), Malcolm Brogdon (last year's 6th Man) and Robert Williams (their only real rim-protector) was a gamble. But the moves paid off and the Celtics are the odds-on fave to win it all (indeed, if the Celtics don't win the East it would be a major disappointment).

Runner-ups: Mavs, Knicks, Rockets

1st Team

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder), Jalen Brunson (Knicks), Giannis Antetokounpo (Bucks), Luka Doncic (Mavs), Nikola Jokic (Nuggets)

2nd Team

Anthony Edwards (Wolves), DeMar DeRozan (Bulls), Jaysun Tatum (Celtics), LeBron James (Lakers), Anthony Davis (Lakers)

3rd Team

Devin Booker (Suns), De'Aaron Fox (Kings), Tyrese Maxey (Sixers), Kevin Durant (Suns), Domantas Sabonis (Kings)

2023-24 NBA Bric-a-Brac and Playoff Predictions

(Got bored down the stretch looking at 10-day contracts, I should probably just stop doing that. Here's a few moves that I missed)

Coach

Jamahl Mosley (Magic) signed 4-year extension

The Magic are a young team on the rise, Mosley came in as a promising behind-the-scenes guy and he's grown nicely with this team. Seems like the right move, especially since this roster is pretty well set for the future, I'd guess one big signing this summer, maybe some luck in the draft, but for the most part this squad is ready to grow together, Coach Mosley looks to be the right guy.

Player Contract

Jrue Holiday (Celtics) signs 4yr/$135m extension

Holiday has definitely been a good addition to this Celtics squad and since they've already extended Jaylin Brown and Kristaps Porzingis, seems like this is their roster for the foreseeable future. This is a good team that still has room to get better, this is a good move. 

Retired

Nemanja Bjelica, Rajon Rondo

I always loved Bjelica, too bad the big fella didn't have a coupla more years in him. I remember watching him with the Wolves and he would always have these bruises and cuts on his face--he perpetually looked like he just came from a fist fight in a Wal-Mart parking lot! Loved his game, big guy that shot 3's and took no shit, love that he got a ring with the Warriors. So long, big guy, I was a big fan.

On the other hand, as a lifelong Kentucky Wildcats supporter, I can honestly say Rajon Rondo was my LEAST favorite Wildcat (and he's actually from Kentucky!). I knew he had the skills to be great, I was not surprised by his success, but his taciturn selfishness torpedoed teams as much as he helped them. I still say the trade that sent him to the Mavs was the WORST single trade of the last decade (and one that everyone forgets), considering that the Mavs had the best offense in the league before the trade (didn't need to be done at all). That said, Rondo was a really good player and at his best was a for-real badass (almost as good as his own sense of self). Will he be back as a coach? On the one hand, he was clearly intelligent at basketball; on the other hand, he didn't strike me as the most outgoing, mentor-oriented guy. 

 

Post-Season Predictions

Play-in

(East) I'll take Heat over Sixers, Bulls over Hawks; Sixers over Bulls

(West) I'll take Pelicans over Lakers; Kings over Warriors; Lakers over Kings

1st round

(East) Celtics over Sixers in 5; Heat over Knicks in 7; Bucks over Pacers in 7; Cavs over Magic in 7

(West) Thunder over Lakers in 7; Nuggets over Pelicans in 4; Wolves over Suns in 6; Mavs over Clippers in 6

2nd round

(East) Celtics over Cavs in 5; Bucks over Heat in 7

(West) Thunder over Mavs in 7; Nuggets over Wolves in 7

Conference finals

(East) Celtics over Bucks in 6

(West) Nuggets over Thunder in 6

This was my pre-season Final Four and I'm sticking with it. Yeah, OKC needs to show they can win in the playoffs and I think they will. But the Nuggets are still the team to beat in the West, the one truly ready-to-win team out there. The Celtics have easily been the best in the League this season and while the Bucks have been more shaky than solid this season, I still think they're better than everyone else (except the Celtics).

Finals

Nuggets over Celtics in 6

This was my pre-season pick and my all-star break pick, I don't see any reason to change. I think the Celtics can beat the Nuggets and it'll be a great series, but I'm sticking with the Jokic and co. until the explosion comes to defeat them. 

2023-24 NFL (Conference Round Playoffs)

Division

Texans 10-34 Ravens

I've been saying all season that the Ravens had a knack for getting everyone's worst game; so when the Texans go for 5 false starts (each of of their O-linemen had one, how unifying!), a delay of game and a neutral zone infraction--do you see what I mean? The Ravens didn't do any of that. The Ravens did a hell of a job keeping QB Stroud from getting going but the pre-snap penalties did more to hold the Texans back than the Ravens did. 10-10 at halftime but the Texans just couldn't get stops in the 2nd half, they couldn't move the ball and it looked like they were playing in mud. The Ravens took a while to get going but this game was never in any doubt. The Texans had a few nice W's down the stretch, had a good season, looks like offensive ROY belongs to them, and they're in a shaky division, so the future is looking so much better now than it was a year ago. But the Ravens were better.

Packers 21-24 Niners

Wow, great game! I still stand by the notion that the reason the Packers beat the Cowboys had more to do with the Cowboys than the Packers, but I was remiss in not pointing out how great the Packers O-line played in that game. And that O-line was great again against the Niners. The Packers have their RB and their QB, bring back that O-line (give raises where needed) and pray that those receivers play as hard as they did the last 6 weeks, spend all your draft capital on defense and I'd say the Packers are ready to start next season today--clearly in the lead for the big bump team. As for the Niners, well, they did what they needed to do to win but when Deebo Samuel went out and never came back, it was a reminder that as good as this squad is on paper, in real life it is a bit fragile. Throw in that DE Bossa didn't do much (hell, I forgot DE Chase Young was even out there!) and even though LB Fred Warner seemed to be everywhere, the Packers still moved the ball convincingly. So how do we see this? I'm going with the Packers were the shocker team that played their best football in the playoffs, got one big upset and almost got another. The Niners did what they needed to do but I was expecting a thrashing and it didn't come and that's...awkward.

Bucs 23-31 Lions

Fun game, 1st half was back and forth action, the 2nd half was a chess match, riveting entertainment throughout. The Lions were the better side all year and I thought that carried through this game, although it was a struggle, Tampa Bay didn't make it easy, All season long the Bucs were the anything-can-happen team: maybe they light you up for 40 or maybe they turn the ball over, convert no 3rd downs and are long dead by halftime. This was maybe the best game they played all year and even though I was impressed with their secondary,  they just couldn't keep the Lions out of the end zone. Good year for the Bucs, I can see this roster being totally different next year but that division is still winnable, so wouldn't be surprised to see the Bucs back in the playoffs next year. 

Chiefs 27-24 Bills

Another heartbreaker for the Bills (wide right, seriously?), but deep down we all know they were gonna lose in OT anyway. The Bills defense was decimated by injuries, the sheer amount of talent gone became too much to overcome and the Chiefs moved the ball without effort from beginning to end. The Bills moved the ball well, too, and they were in position to tie the game late, so a pretty even contest, though the Chiefs D was one of the best in the league this year while the Bills were at 3rd or 4th string all over the place. The Bills adopted a more conservative game plan (thank god!), running the ball effectively, piling up 1st downs and piling up time of possession; but if they had done from the 1st week of the season, perhaps they wouldn't have had so many defensive injuries. I still believe in the Bills offense (re: Josh Allen and whoever they give him to catch the ball) and I kinda still believe in the Bills defense, but they need to find a holistic way to move the ball without putting their own defense in tough positions. Good W for the Chiefs (I mean, Mahomes). 

Conference 

Chiefs @ Ravens (-4) (44.5)

Can Mahomes go into Baltimore and will a victory against a team that has kinda dominated (but has also been less impressive than most "dominant" teams)? Yeah, I think so. Mahomes is pretty great, man, already in the GOAT debate and he's still pretty young. Can the Chiefs D get stops and corral MVP Lamar Jackson? Yeah, I think so. The Chiefs D is by far the best that they've had in the Mahomes era, feels like the Chiefs have hit the kind of balance that great franchises dream of. So am I picking the Chiefs? No. I've been suggesting that the Ravens are fraudulent and that the day would come when they would meet an opponent that got the best of them and I think I still believe that....but the Chiefs aren't that team. I would've given Buffalo a better shot at keeping pace with the Ravens than the Chiefs. The Dolphins and Bills defenses were both torn to shreds by injuries, so the playoff matches the Chiefs have played so far were 3rd rate at best, but that is not the case with the Ravens, whose defense was better anyway and isn't particularly racked by injuries. So Mahomes will face more intensity than anything he's seen so far. Can the Chiefs defense fustigate Lamar? Yeah, that pass rush is pretty good, they're a veteran crew and they've played all year. So am I picking the Chiefs? No. I think the Ravens maintain a lead throughout, the Chiefs hang around and keep the game competitive. But by the 4th quarter, Lamar will have figured out what he needs to do and the Mahomes will be completely worn down to nothing, both teams will score, both teams will get stops, but the Ravens will be the better side. Tough to bet against Mahomes but I think the Ravens are too good for Mahomes to take single-handedly. So a relatively close game, but I like the Ravens to be in control throughout and to separate down the stretch. Ravens 31-24 (Ravens and the over).

Lions @ Niners (-7) (51.5)

The Niners at full strength are the best team in the league; that said, they're not at full strength very often. Last week, the Packer O-line held them at bay for the most part but the Niners talent came to the fore and pulled out the victory. The Lions are pretty good when they bring it but you just know they're going to make x amount of mistakes per game. Can the Niners take full advantage of the Lions sleepy moments? I think the Niners need to get a lead early, which will allow them to take more chances on both sides of the ball. If the Niners can make the Lions play catch-up from the jump, then I think they'll win comfortably. The Lions best bet is to be slow and steady, avoid giving up big plays on defense and chew the clock with a running game on offense; if they can do that, I think they can hang with the Niners and be in position to take advantage of Niner mistakes. This game comes down to mistakes: which team will capitalize and which will give up their advantage. Well, as I said, the Niners at their best are the best team and while I'm skeptical of their BEST best, I think they get close enough to it to hold off a furious Lion comeback in the 4th quarter. I'll take the Niners 31-27 (Lions and the over), but if there's gonna be a blowout on Sunday, it'll be this game.

2023-24 NFL (Playoffs Wild Card Round)

Browns (-1.5) @ Texans (o/u 44.5)

I've watched the Browns a lot this year and I've generally been pretty impressed. Their defense is maybe the best in the league and it keeps them in games even when they roll in with a backup QB--which was, like, every game this season. The Texans have a rookie QB and coach and are winning because they don't know they're supposed to (ah, I love those teams!). I'm expecting a good one here, these are two pretty good teams that aren't as good they think they are, so a lot of swagger going into this one. I like the Browns, I just think the Texans are too young to get it done. I'll say Browns 24-14 (Browns and the under)

Dolphins @ Chiefs (-4.5) (43.5)

The Dolphins have had bursts of big offense but not enough to make me think they're really all that dangerous, especially considering the cavalcade of injuries they endured down the stretch. The Chiefs have improved their defense but the offense is just Mahomes alone (oh man, that just came to me! Need a t-shirt of Mahomes in the Scream pose). But Mahomes alone is still pretty great and I think gonna be better than what the Dolphins can bring. I like the Dolphins keep it close but Chiefs move on. Chiefs 24-21 (Dolphins and the over).

Steelers @ Bills (-9.5) (33.5)

For years now (YEARS!) I've been watching the Steelers get worse and worse on offense and yet still get W's and make the playoffs. This team is not good and hasn't been good in years. Yes, the defense is still okay (but they're without TJ Watt this week) and the 3rd string QB Rudolph is better than the 2nd string (Trubisky) and arguably the 1st string (Pickett) but I'm still not buying that they can move the ball. The BIlls run defense is a little soft but I don't see the Steelers being able to take advantage. The Bills have done just enough to win this season but as weird as they were, they did finish 2nd in the AFC, which was pretty close to everyone's pre-season pick, so are we sure they had a bad season? Okay, here's the prognostication: the Steelers hit big over the top early in the game, punch Buffalo in the nose and then...do nothing for the rest of the game. Neither team is worried about the frigid conditions--hell, both these teams love that shit. I'll say Bills 27-13 (Bills and the over).

Packers @ Cowboys (-7) (50.5)

People are on the Packers, who played better down the stretch once it seemed like they finally figured out their own QB (Love is up and down but promising enough to be a keeper, I'd say). But when the Cowboys bring their A game (especially at home), they are petty damn overpowering offense. I think the Cowboys bring it, just don't see how the Packers keep up. I'll say Cowboys 38-17 (Cowboys and the over)

Rams @ Lions (-3) (51.5)

I think this could be the funnest game of a weekend full of fun games. The Rams started slow but when they play their best game, they're pretty damn good on both sides of the ball. The Lions have had highs and lows but my gut feeling is they're best is better than the Rams best. I'd love to see them both play their best but I think the Lions have a better chance of playing their best than the Rams (does that make sense?). I like the Lions in a barn burner (I think the Rams have their chance to win it and come up short). Lions 31-28 (Push and the under).

Eagles (-3) @ Bucs (43.5)

The Eagles just haven't looked interested in football for a coupla months now, not sure what their deal is, but I'd like to think they pull it together at least enough to beat the Bucs. The Bucs are the wildly unpredictable (the Colts were like this, too) team in the post-season, so if you think they're going to roll over to the Eagles, well, bet the opposite. I've factored that in, though, as I think the Eagles are bringing back their A game (for one week at least) and look to get up early and then bring the pass rush. I got Eagles 31-13 (Eagles and the over). 

2023-24 NBA Bric-a-Brac (Pre-season predictions)

MVP: Nikola Jokic (Nuggets)

The Jokic-Giannis dynamic is still in effect (and I just do not see Emibiid getting there this season). The outliers to keep an eye on: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder), Devin Booker (Suns) and Bam Adebayo (Heat).

Defensive Player: Evan Mobley (Cavs)

I just don't see Jaren Jackson Jr. or Marcus Smart getting the same kind of love, so the voters will be looking for someone new. Keep an eye on Rudy Gobert (Wolves), an old favorite that might re-emerge if the Wolves are a contender, Jrue Holiday (Celtics) if the Celtics come to truly need his defensive presence (which is very possible) and Nic Claxton (Nets), hey, why not? He had the exact same stats as JJJ last season. 

Rookie: Chet Holmgren (Thunder)

OKC is ready to win now and they'll maximize Chet all year long. Obviously everyone is thinking Wembamyama (Spurs), but I think he'll have crazy highs and crazy lows for one of the lesser teams in the league and they'll shut him down before the end anyway, so while I am confident Wemby will give us many eye-popping highlights, at the end of the day I don't think voters will have enough to really evaluate (I say that as someone who thinks the typical ROY voter is totally wrong in their philosophies). Oh, by the way: Scoot Henderson (Blazers) is gonna be awesome, probably right away. Everyone is raving about the Thompson twins (Rockets, Pistons) and Keyontae George (Jazz) and further down the 2023 draft, I can see Cason Wallace (Thunder), Jaime Jaquez (Heat) and Gradey Dick (Raptors) fitting into their rotations right off.

6th Man: Malik Monk (Kings)

I think the Kings are gonna be really good and Monk is gonna have a great season mostly coming off the bench. So, you know....two and two. If you're really looking to see who wins this award, it is typically someone that has won it before, but since Lou Williams has finally retired, the voters may be forced to find someone new. 

Coach of the Year: Mike Malone (Nuggets)/Joe Mazzulo (Celtics)

The Nuggets are going to be blithely awesome all year long and while usually COY goes to the team that makes the biggest leap (ahem, OKC and Orlando might be better picks), sometimes they just give it to the guy who is actually the coach of the best team. I think Malone is in a new place in his career and I can see the voters recognizing his ascendance to the top of the league.

Last year, Coach Maz had his tribulations but now the roster is in its final form and the coaching staff has been filled out, as well. The real trick to the Celtics season is whether Coach Maz finds his groove or not. I think he will and I think the Celtics will gel and be kinda great all year long. 

Exec of the Year: Rafael Stone (Rockets)/Brad Stevens (Celtics)

Yeah, Stone is a left-field choice for this but the Rockets made some big, off-kilter swings (Van Vleet, Brooks) in the free agent market this summer, hired a controversial coach (Udoka), side-stepped the James Harden soap opera and endured some controversy at the top of their roster (Porter Jr) and I think by year's end, the Rockets will be a pretty good squad. They've got a combustible mix of youth and vets, a screamer for a coach and low expectations around the league (but a ravenous home fan base), there is plenty that can go wrong here. But I think it's gonna go right and by year's end we'll be looking at the Rockets as next year's bust out squad and while that may be a little too soon for Executive of the Year votes, I think this team will be in the forefront of voters' minds.  

As for the Celtics, bringing in Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis could go sideways, but I think they're both great pick-ups and I think the Celtics dominate for the most part. Meanwhile, moving on from DPOY Marcus Smart, 6th Man Malcolm Brogdon and rim-protector Robert Williams will seem like brilliant moves, too, by season's end. 

East Play-ins:

Raptors over Pacers; Magic over Knicks; Pacers over Magic

(1st Round) (1) Bucks over (8) Pacers in 6

(2) Celtics over (7) Raptors in 7

(6) Sixers over (3) Cavs in 7

(4) Heat over (5) Hawks in 7

(Quarterfinals) Bucks over Sixers in 6; Celtics over Heat in 5

(Semifinals) Celtics over Bucks in 7

West

Play-ins: Grizzlies over Wolves; Mavs over Pelicans; Mavs over Wolves

(1st Round) (1) Nuggets over (8) Mavs in 5

(7) Grizzlies over (2) Kings in 6

(3) Thunder over (6) Warriors in 5

(5) Lakers over (4) Suns in 7

(Quarterfinals) Nuggets over Grizzlies in 5; Thunder over Lakers in 6

(Semifinals) Nuggets over Thunder in 5

(Finals) Nuggets over Celtics in 6

2023-24 NBA Pre-Season (Atlantic Division)

Celtics

In

Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porzingis, Jordan Walsh (4yr/$7.6m), Oshae Brissett (2yr/$4.6m), Jay Scrubb (2-way), Dalano Banton (2yr/$4.2m), Svi Mykhailliuk (1yr/$2.4m), Neemias Queets (2-way), Lamar Stevens

Holiday and Porzingis walk into Boston as the two highest paid players on the roster--that's a bit of a culture shock! KP is an experiment but I think a worthwhile one: hey, man, Porzingis has matured as a person and a player as much as anyone I think I've ever seen. He was a selfish punkass when he first donned a Knick uni and after a coupla years of bouncing around, he has been properly humbled and learned what his true talents on the court are. I think the Celtics are getting the right guy at the right time. And Holiday is the hard nosed Marcus Smart-replacement that this team needed. Their two big moves like like two big wins already. 

Out

Marcus Smart, Danilo Gallinari, Mike Muscala, Mfioundu Kebengale, Blake Griffin, Grant Williams, Justin Champagnie, Robert Williams, Malcolm Brogdon

A lot out but the Celtics retained the bulk of their muscle, so this all seems like addition by subtraction. Smart is the most up-and-down player of the last decade or so, Brogdon just won 6th Man and he's already out, Robert Williams was the best rim protector they've had in eons but he was also injury-prone, Grant Williams gave them toughness but maybe a little more reckless than was beneficial, Galinari was never able to play for them and Griffin was nice but nothing irreplaceable. A lot of moves but it feels like the rotation has been streamlined.

Re-signed

Jaylen Brown (5yr/$288.3m), Payton Pritchard (4yr/$30m), JD Davison (2-way)

That price tag for Jaylen may seem like too much but that's the price at the time and the Celtics had to pay it, so it was the right move. Pritchard is a nice player off the bench and that contract seems reasonable. 

Rest of roster

Jaysun Tatum, Derrick White, Al Horford, Luke Kornet, Sam Hauser

Tatum is the heartbeat, White is the main playmaker, Horford is the adult in the room and Kornet and Hauser will play meaningful minutes. 

Next summer's free agents

Kornet

Meh. I'm sure Kornet is a nice guy but letting him go will not be traumatic. 

Vegas over/under: 54.5 (I'll go Over)

I think the Celtics are in business to be the #1 seed. I have them coming up short to the Bucks but I wouldn't be surprised if Game Seven of the Eastern Conference Finals is in the Garden. Yeah, they've had a lot of turnover from last year's rotation and they've got two new big pieces to integrate but the real wild card of this team is Coach Mazzulla. If he's up for it, this team should be really really good every night, but if he struggles, it may take a while for this team to find their rhythm. I think they'll be just fine and the real worry is injuries (just like everybody else). 

Sixers

In

Ricky Council (2-way), Terquavion Smith (2-way), Mo Bamba (1yr/$2.4m), Azuolas Tubelis (2-way), Filip Petrusev (2yr/$3m), Javonte Smart (Exhibit 10), David Duke Jr (1yr), Danny Green (1yr/$3.2m), Kelly Oubre (1yr)

Oubre and Bamba are nice additions but they won't make any huge difference between last year and this year. Nor will Danny Green or, I suspect, any of these other guys. 

Out

Dewayne Dedmon, Shake Milton, Georges Niang, Jalen McDaniels, Mac McClung, Louis King, Marcus Bagley

Niang, I thought, was a consistent steadying force off the bench for the Sixers in the last coupla years and missing him might be a bigger deal than they think. Milton, too, is a nice player who could've grown nicely into a role with this team but the Sixers moved on; not the end of the world, but continuity matters and Philly's additions don't strike me as bigger than the subtractions. 

Re-signed

Pat Beverley (1yr/$3.2m), Paul Reed (3yr/$23.6m), Montrezl Harrell (1yr/$2.9m)

I like Reed, though I think the Sixers could've let him go. PatBev is nice but overrated--if you think he's gonna take the Sixers to the promised land, I think you're nuts. And why bring back Trez? They never figured out what to do with him, do they assume Coach Nurse will use him better than Coach Rivers did? Maybe but not obvious. 

Rest of roster

Joel Embiid, Tobias Harris, James Harden, PJ Tucker, De'Anthony Melton, Furkan Korkmaz, Tyrese Maxey, Danuel House Jr, Jaden Springer

So how long does the Harden madness last? How hard will it be to ship him out--which seems like the only possible conclusion to this drama? If they can convince Harden to play, I think that could work just fine but I suspect they'll have to move on and incorporate whatever comes back in his place. 

Embiid is at the peak of his powers. Harris, as maligned as he is, is a good fit for this team. Maxey should be ready to take a step forward (with or without Harden). Tucker and Melton and House know their roles and will be just fine. If Harden moves on, I'd be interested to see if Korkmaz can finally get his shot at being a regular part of this rotation. 

Next summer's free agents

Harris, Harden, Melton, Korkmaz, Maxey, House, Harrell, Bamba, Beverley, Green, Duke, Oubre, Petrusev

A lot of choices looming next summer. Obviously Harden won't be one of them, but the rest will cause a fair amount of agitation. 

Vegas over/under: 48.5 (I got Under)

The Sixers are built around Embiid and whatever, so however the Harden saga plays out, they know who they are and they have their heart in place. But the turmoil will put a lid on how great this team can be in the regular season and throw in that the Bucks and Celtics have made for-real improvements, I think the Sixers will struggle to hang on to that 4th place slot in the East. I think they will, but it won't be easy. 

Raptors

In

Denis Schroder (2yr/$25.4m), Gradey Dick (4yr/$21.4m), Jeff Dowtin (1yr/$2m), Ron Harper Jr (2-way),  Markquis Nowell (2-way), Jalen McDaniels (2yr/$9.3m), Javon Freeman-Liberty (2-way), Garret Temple (1yr/$3.2m), Mouhamadou Gueye (2-way), Makur Maker

Schroder is perfect for this team and if they just let him do his thing, I think the Raptors could be really good. And Dick looks like another long, lean Raptor swing man, ever more depth to the 2nd string. The rest are fine but Schroder is the new leader and Dick is the next up in the rotation. 

Out

Dalano Banton, Fred Van Vleet, Will Barton, Joe Wieskamp

I like Van Vleet but I always thought he was too much of the focus in Toronto, he's a 6th Man type (a la Tyus Jones) and in that role he can be truly great; but as the tone-setter....meh. It's not that they're better off without him, I think the ideal would've been a starting PG to move Van Vleet back to the bench, but that's not the way it worked out. Banton had moments and I forgot Barton was there last year. 

Re-signed

Jakob Poetl (4yr/$78m)

Poetl is the for-real center that this team has needed for years and after he arrived at the deadline last year, the Raptors played much better and had a real identity. Now they've got a new coach, can they maintain what they had with Poetl? (I think the answer is yes)

Rest of roster

Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby, Gary Trent Jr, Chris Boucher, Scottie Barnes, Thaddeus Young, Otto Porter Jr, Precious Achiuwa, Malachi Flynn, Christian Koloko

I love the Raptor roster theory: wave after wave of long, lean swingmen that are tough to get around and hard to guard. They just need one PG to drive the car (I think Schroder is the guy) and everyone else just dives to the rim and plays tough D. 

Next summer's free agents

Siakam, Trent, Young, Porter, Temple, Achiuwa, Flynn, Dowtin, Gueye, Harper, Maker

I suspect Siakam is a sign-and-trade next summer. If this team is good this year, then the rest will mostly be brought back; if this team totally blows, then most will be traded by the deadline or not brought back next summer. This year's success determines which of these guys they hold on to and which ones they let go.

Vegas over/under: 36.5 (Holy shit, way Over)

This team could go Over and still have a massively disappointing year! This number is way too low. Unless you think this team sucks early and blows it all up right away, then you have to go Over. I don't think they will suck--and even if they do, they're still early enough into the Shroder and Coach Rajakovic era that they have to give it some time. So I don't see a major blow up (though Siakam will be the center of all the rumors) and I think they'll be pretty good anyway. I have them as 8th in the East and real pain in the ass in the playoffs. 

Knicks

In

Donte DiVincenzo (4yr/$46.9m), Jacob Toppin (1yr/$1.1m), Nathan Knight (2-way), Dylan Windler (2-way), Charles Brown Jr (Exhibit 10), Ryan Arcidiacano

DiVincenzo has been one of the most underappreciated players of the last few years and I think he's a great pickup for the Knicks. Will he carry them deep into the post-season? No, but he'll give them energy off the bench and keep them from getting droopy. 

Out

Derrick Rose, Obi Toppin, Isaiah Roby

Personally, I thought Coach Thibodeau's fetish for Rose was unnecessary and unrealistic and it is probably better for the team that Rose is no longer there to take up important minutes. I've always been curious about Toppin but getting stuck behind Julius Randle was never gonna work for him, good for him to get out to an opportunity to play. 

Re-signed

Josh Hart (4yr/$80.9m)

I like Hart but I also find him to be a bit overrated. He brings energy and some swagger and that's fine, but he isn't a rock solid playmaker or money finisher, so while I admire his contribution, I also think it's not as great as you think it is. That said, they needed him back and this was the right deal. 

Rest of roster

Julius Randle, Jalen Brunson, RJ Barrett, Evan Fournier, Mitchell Robinson, Isaiah Hartenstein, Immanuel Quickley, Quentin Grimes, DaQuan Jeffries, Jericho Sims, Miles McBride

Brunson-Randle-Barrett-Robinson with Grimes, Quickley and Hartenstein off the bench is a nice rotation. Fournier is obviously ready to move on with his life but Jeffries, Sims and McBride will contribute nicely. 

Next summer's free agents

Hartenstein, Quickley, Jeffries, McBride, Knight, Toppin, Arcidiacano

Quickley is absolutely a keeper, but the rest probably will be off to new homes. 

Vegas over/under: 46.5 (Gotta go Under)

I just don't love this team. I don't love Coach Thibs and Randle, Barrett and Robinson are okay but not the ideal core. Brunson and Quickley (my pick for 6th Man this year) form a great platoon, but as good as they are, I don't see them getting all that many W's. This is a tough division and I think the Knicks get swallowed up. I have them finishing 9th in the East. 

Nets

In

Jalen Wilson (2-way), Dennis Smith Jr (1yr/$2.5m), Dariq Whitehead (4yr/$14.7m), Lonnie Walker (1yr/$2.3m), Noah Clowney (4yr/$15.2m), Darius Bazeley (1y/$2.2m), Armoni Brooks (2-way), Trendon Watford (1yr/$2m), Harry Giles (1yr/$?), 

Okay, some interesting rookies (Whitehead, Clowney, Brooks), some reliable if unspectacular vets (Walker, Smith, Watford) and a full-on reclamation project (Giles). How does this mix in with the current roster? I dunno. 

Out

David Duke, Seth Curry, Yuta Watanabe, Dru Smith, Patty Mills, Joe Harris, Edmond Sumner

Curry is the real loss here but this cast seems to be fairly similar to what they're bringing in, so I feel like looking forward is a better idea than trying to hold on to these guys. 

Re-signed

Cameron Johnson (4yr/$94.5m)

I love Cam Johnson, so impressed with him in Phoenix and I love his hustle and his smarts. Not sure he's the right fit for this team because I feel like at his best he serves a big star and there isn't one here. So though I love the player, love the contract, he's better off on another team (if the Nuggets could figure out how to add him to their roster, they can go ahead and hang the next banner). 

Rest of roster

Ben Simmons, Mikal Bridges, Spencer Dinwiddie, Dorian Finney-Smith, Nic Claxton, Royce O'Neale, Day'Ron Sharpe 

Love Bridges but he's a server, not a star. Like Finney-Smith and Claxton and O'Neale but they need to be part of a better team. Sharpe is still interesting (though I think he's a role player looking for a samurai, like the rest of the roster). Okay, Simmons, all set up for you to be a star again....wanna be a star? Do you like basketball, Ben? 

Next summer's free agents

Dinwiddie, Claxton, O'Neale, Bazley, Smith Jr, Walker, Giles

They've already got a solid cast of role players, they need a star. Until they get a star, these guys are fungible commodities. 

Vegas over/under: 37.5 (I went Over)

Yes, Over but still missing the playoffs. So will they tank down the stretch and look to make trades? Or will they be close enough to the post-season that they go for it (and come up short)? That's the path I see them on come season's end. Frankly this whole roster is filled with nice players that need a leader to marshal them. If Ben Simmons wants to be that leader, then Simmons is your Most Improved player and maybe back in the all-Pro talk; but if not, then the Nets will be in trade rumors all year long because all these guys look better on other teams. 

2023-24 NBA Pre-Season (Southeast Division)

Heat

In

Jaime Jaquez (4yr/$17m), Dru Smith (2-way), Josh Richardson (2yr/$5.9m), Thomas Bryant (2yr/$5.4m), Cole Swider (Exhibit 10), Justin Chamagnie (Exhibit 10), Cheick Diallo (Exhibit 10), RJ Hampton (2-way)

Jaquez seems primed to become the next Heat culture creation, a dude everyone kinda likes but turns into a monster in Miami (though realistically, don't Smith and Champagnie have a better chance of becoming the next Heat-ensteins?). Richardson has had moments in this league, but that was a while ago, can the Heat resurrect him? (My guess is no) I always liked Bryant, he's not gonna get a lot of minute spelling Adebayo, but he could be a consistent small contributor. Diallo and Hampton are given the one-last-chance 2-way deals, Miami is probably the best case for both of those guys. 

Out

Omer Yurtseven, Cody Zeller, Max Strus, Gabe Vincent, Victor Oladipo, Udonis Haslem

Udonis has finally moved on, though let's be honest, he's definitely one of those dudes that will hang around the office even after he retires, so is he really gone? Strus and Vincent were two huge scores for the Heat, two rocks that got polished up and found value out in the world (these two are the best advertisements for "Heat culture", no?). Zeller and Yurtseven are okay but weren't in the long term plans. Oladipo....man, does that guy still have anything left? 

Re-signed

Kevin Love (2yr/$7.9m), Nikola Jovic (exercised rookie extension), Orlando Robinson (1yr/$3.9m), Jamal Cain (2-way)

Love is one of those guys that I have always misjudged: when I thought he was gonna be good, he turned into a pointless headache and when I thought he was gonna suck, he turns into a big time scorer. So what's he gonna do this year? No idea, I'll ust leave it at that. Time for Jovic to get some playing time, no? Robinson and Cain would be not worth mentioning on any other squad but in Miami they might turn into all-stars (or they might be not worth mentioning). 

Rest of roster

Jimmy Butler, Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, Duncan Robinson, Caleb Martin, Kyle Lowry, Heywood Highsmith

Herro spent the summer in trade rumors but come Autumn, he's back in a Heat uniform. Is it gonna be awkward? Oh, it will be at first but that will go away because rumors are just rumors and they happen all the time. Lowry is finally on the way out, Robinson really needs to be re-born (if he rebounds, there's your Most Improved Player for this year), Martin shined out in the playoffs and really become a member of this squad. Butler and Bam are the linchpins. 

Next summer's free agents

Lowry, Highsmith

Lowry is gone, gone, gone. Highsmith is playing for his next contract which might come from Miami. 

Vegas over/under: 46.5 (I have them Under)

The Heat are notorious for being unpredictable about their regular season performance, some years they're into it, other years not so much. This is a team that cares about the post-season but it only occasionally occurs to them that being good in the regular season is a good launchpad into the playoffs. We'll see. To me the real wild card this season is Bam Adebayo: notice that he just turned down the big extension, which signals that he will be balling out this year. If he stays healthy and keeps his head straight, he could win the MVP this year. Butler (like Kawhi) has the peak of an all-pro but the median of a barely average guy; I don't think he 'll bring it til the playoffs, so this is Bam's team and if Bam wants to win the MVP, then the Heat are gonna be handful this season. Herro is ready to play, Martin needs to show that he actually is as good as he looked in the Finals run, Lowry is auditioning for his next team, Jovic is the new kid and we'll see where Jaquez fits in. This team has the widest variance, I'd say, if they feel like being good, they'll be a top 3 team in the East, but if they feel like saving it for the playoffs, they might be back in the play-in. Both results seems pretty equal to me. I have them finishing with 46 W's, so I went Under but they could also waaaaaaay outperform that. 

Hawks

In

Kobe Bufkin (4yr/$19.8m), Trent Forrestt (2-way), Wesley Matthews (1yr/$3.2m), Patty Mills, Miles Norris (2-way), Seth Lundy (2-way), Mouhamed Gueye (4yr/$7.6m)

Do Mills and Matthews still have anything to offer? Is Bufkin a star? Who is Gueye?

Out

Lou Williams, John Collins, Aaron Holliday, Vit Krejci, Tyrese Martin

Sweet Lou, we hardly knew ye (though we will be re-naming that 6th Man Award after ye, eventually). They finally traded Collins--hooray! Our long national nightmare is over! I always liked him but he was never really a good fit here. 

Re-signed

Bruno Fernando (team exercised option),  Dejounte Murray (4yr/$114m)

I think Murray (*) will look like a bargain soon enough. I like Fernando. 

Rest of roster

Trae Young, Clint Capela, DeAndre Hunter, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Onyeka Okongwu, Saddiq Bey, AJ Griffin, Jalen Johnson, Garrison Matthews

John Collins is finally out of the way, so time for Hunter and Okongwu to firmly establish the front court. Bey didn't get his extension, so is he trade bait or is he ball-out mode? (Does he have room to ball out?) Is there room for Griffin to emerge--and I'm still in on Johnson, he could still blow up nicely. Oh yeah: there's Trae, too (I can't halp feeling like he'll be out by the end of the year, depends on how well they do in the first half of the season). 

Next summer's free agents

Okongwu, Mills, Bey, Matthews

Okongwu just signed his extension, but Bey wasn't offered one. I can't see Mills being back next year, he's a good vet, he'll be somehere but I doubt its Atlanta. I was more impressed with Matthews in Milwaukee than I expected to be but not sure he fits in here (I say he gets waived at some point and goes back to Milwaukee). 

Vegas over/under: 42.5 (I'll say Over)

This is a weird team and I go back and forth over what I think of them. They can be really good or really bad or somewhere in between. And since I think Trae is up for trade talks, its hard to figure how their success determines where this team will go. I dunno, I think they'll be pretty good all year long, then flame out in the playoffs and we go through major crises next summer with this squad. 

Magic

In

GM Anthony Parker, Anthony Black (4yr/$32m), Jett Howard (4yr/$23m), Joe Ingles (2yr/$22m), Travelin Queen, Mac McClung (Exhibit 10), Miya Oni, Brandon Williams (Exhibit 10)

I didn't understand drafting Black or Howard, puzzling picks but maybe they see something I don't. They've drafted well lately but both of those guys seem like reaches that won't find much opportunity to develop, so not sure why they got either of them. I like Ingles but I'm not sure what he does for this team, like he's a nice vet that will keep the youngsters moving but this team is already built for the youngsters, so it feels like Ingles is just a waste of space here. Taking a flyer on McClung is probably just a cunard.  

Out

Michael Carter-Williams, Bol Bol

I like Bol but he definitely needs to be in the perfect spot and I'm not sure there is one in the NBA, he'd be better off going to China and dominating or going to Europe and figuring out how to add to a team there. 

Re-signed

Moe Wagner (2yr/$16m), Admiral Schofield (2-way), Exercised rookie extensions on Paulo Banchero, Franz Wagner, Jalen Suggs & Goga Bitadze

Hey, did anybody watch the same FIBA World Cup that I watched? The one where Germany won it all largely because of the outsized contribution of MOE Wagner? Yeah, everyone slobbered over Franz and it's not like he sucked, but Moe was the one making the plays and hitting the big shots. Will that translate to a bust out NBA season? It might, keep an eye on Moe for Most Improved. Picking up the extensions were all no-brainers (yeah, even Bitadze). 

Rest of roster

Jonathon Isaac, Markelle Fultz, Wendell Carter Jr, Gary Harris, Cole Anthony, Chuma Okeke, Caleb Houstan

I was looking back over 2018 my pre-season NBA outlook and wrote that we still haven't seen what Isaac can do; dude, 5 years later we still haven't seen it! Is this the year? (I dunno, maybe) And will the wait be worth it? (That doesn't seem possible, right?) This is really a nice roster, man, I like all these guys and I think they fit together and understand each other. This is a good time to be a Magic fan, I'd say.

Next summer's free agents

Fultz, Harris, Anthony, Okeke

Anthony re-upped the other day, so he'll be back. I suspect Fultz will, too (or will be a prime sign-and-trade candidate). Harris is getting old, probably time for his to do the hired gun marauding around the league thing. Not sure about Okeke, feels like he'll be back in Summer League next year. 

Vegas over/under: 38.5 (I'm going Over)

This is a team that is primed to blow up. This is Paulo's team with Franz as his sidekick, with a nice collection of talent around them. If Suggs takes a step forward, if Fultz stays healthy, if Moe builds on his solid summer and Isaac....does anything...then this team could be pretty good all year long and maybe even be a problem in the playoffs. In the NBA the young teams don't win but with Carter and Fultz and Harris, they've actually got some good veteran presence and even these youngsters don't feel that young (especially since I don't see the rookies seeing the floor at all). This will be a fun watch on League Pass all year long. 

Hornets

In

Brandon Miller (4yr/$49.5m), Nick Smith Jr. (4yr/$12.6m), Amari Bailey (2-way), Leaky Black (2-way), Frank Ntilikina (1yr/$2.5m), RJ Hunter, Nathan Mensah (Exhibit 10), Edmond Sumner (1ys/$?), Theo Maledon (2-way)

Man, for a team that needs a youth injection and feel-good story at the same time, bringing in Brandon Miller (wrongful death suit against him just got filed) feels like bad karma just waiting to happen. Throwing in misfit retreads like Hunter and Ntilikina don't inspire me, either. Sumner and Maledon might be rotation guys, so some of these pieces may fit. 

Out

Dennis Smith Jr, Kelly Oubre, Svi Mykhailiuk, Kai Jones

To part ways with Greatest of All Time Kai Jones is just another day in Hornet land. Smith and Svi and Oubre maybe could've helped this team but hard to imagine they'll regret any of those moves. 

Re-signed

Miles Bridges (1yr/$7.9m), LaMelo Ball (5yr/$205.9m), PJ Washington (3yr/$46.5m)

I was never as big a fan of LaMelo as most others but I love PJ more than most, so feels like those two moves balance out (right? Is that how it works?). And bringing back Miles Bridges (surrendered to a warrant last week) is another cloud hanging over head. 

Rest of roster

Terry Rozier, Cody Martin, James Bouknight, Nick Richards, Mark Williams, Bryce McGowen, JT Thor, Gordon Hayward, 

Are we gonna see Thor or Bouknight this year? Hayward and Richards and Rozier are probably better as trade bait than rotation players. And while I like Richards and Williams, neither of them will make a life-changing difference. 

Next summer's free agents

Hayward, Bridges

Hard to imagine Hayward back. Bridges, though, troubling as his presence is, does provide value that they'll have to capture somehow. 

Vegas over/under: 30.5 (gotta go Under)

This team may be much better than I'm giving them credit for but a team built around LaMelo Ball, a rookie, and a bunch of trade bait does not inspire much confidence. I got Coach Clifford as a lock to get fired by season's end (though he's hardly the problem with this team), maybe even the first fired. How long before LaMelo wants out? And does anyone want him? 

Wizards

In

Bilal Coulibaly (4yr/$30.1m), Tyus Jones, Mike Muscala, Danilo Galinari, Landry Shamet, Jordan Poole, Ryan Rollins, Patrick Baldwin Jr., Eugene Omorutyi (2-way), Jared Butler (2-way), Jules Bernard (Exhibit 10), Michael Foster Jr

This is Poole's team now, I think he'll be good enough to pile up numbers but not good enough to keep them out of the lottery. I love Jones but he's playing for his next contract (after Klay Thompson moves on, he'll fit in nicely in Golden State, right?). Curious to see Coulibaly, dude's got a buzz about him. I can see Shamet and Baldwin being nice role guys here (good enough to be trade bait...?). 

Out

Kristaps Porzingis, Bradley Beal, Jordan Goodwin, Isaiah Todd, Monte Morris

Beal was arguably the most overly-beloved player of the last decade, but frankly he was choking the franchise and moving on from him is the greatest breath of fresh air this squad has had in a while. Porzingis played well for the Wiz, when he was in there, they were right to move on though. 

Re-signed

Kyle Kuzma (4yr/$90m), Taj Gibson (1yr/?), Coach Wes Unseld Jr (2yr extension)

I like Kuzma, think he'll fit nicely with Poole, I think that duo will be the faces of this team for the next 2-3 years. Is Coach Unseld worth a re-up? I kinda doubt it. 

Rest of roster

Daniel Gafford, Delon Wright, Deni Avdija, Johnny Davis, Corey Kispert, Anthony Gill, Xavier Cooks

A lot of trade bait. I'm be surprised if Wright is still on this team by the end of the season. Avdija is playing for his next contract--or he'll be shipped out at the trade deadline. I'd be surprised if Johnny Davis is anywhere but Washington, Gafford, Kispert and Gill could all be in new uniforms by the end. 

Next summer's free agents

Jones, Wright, Galinari, Avdjia, Muscala, Gill

Is Avdija a keeper? That's what this season will determine for him. I'd be surprised if Jones re-signs here next summer. The rest are probably all gone by next summer, too. 

Vegas over/under: 24.5 (Under)

Best bet is to aim for the #1 pick, I don't dislike the talent but there's no real fit for these guys and once Poole takes over, everyone else will check out. I think this team quickly becomes Poole getting stats and everyone else standing around watching. I just don't see the upside on this team even though I love Tyus Jones and kinda dig Avdija and really curious to see Coulibaly, but I just don't see the W's. 

(*) A Utah Jazz fan friend of mine hit me with a hot take that I kinda loved. For years Quinn Snyder, while coaching the Jazz was the presumed successor for Coach Popovic in San Antonio. So how did he end up in Atlanta? My friend theorizes that after all those years of side-eying the Spurs, he fell in love with Dejounte Murray. Aha! Keep an eye on Trae Young, friends, according to this theory Snyder sees this as Murray's team not Trae's. I'm in and I think Trae is legit trade bait this year. 

2023-24 NBA Pre-Season (Pacific Division)

Kings

In

Colby Jones (4yr/$8.8m), Jalen Slawson (2-way), Chris Duarte, Sasha Vezenkov (3yr/$20m), JaVale McGee (1yr/$3.2m), Jordan Ford (2-way), Jaylen Nowell (Exhibit 10)

I like adding Duarte for depth at ball handling and I'm curious to see Vazenkov, a Euro who seems to have a lot of talent. 

Out

Corey Brewer, Jeremy Lamb, Terence Davis, Matthew Dellavadova, Richaun Holmes, PJ Dozier

Holmes was always a nice player but never fit in this rotation. Davis and Dozier are replaceable. Corey Brewer? Did he play for the Kings last year? Corey Brewer?

Re-signed

Harrison Barnes (3yr/$54m), Damontas Sabonis (5yr/$186m), Trey Lyles (2yr/$16m), Alex Len (1yr/$3.2m), Kessler Edwards (exercised team option), Keon Ellis (2-way)

Might seem like a rich contract for Barnes but I think he's the right vet for this team and if they didn't pay him, someone else would've. Big money for Sabonis--correct move! Lyles and Len both had really good moments for this squad last year and both are reasonable re-ups, both good moves. 

Rest of roster

DeAaron Fox, Kevin Huerter, Malik Monk, Keegan Murray, Davion Mitchell

Yeah, that's a good core. They won last year, I think they'll win again this year. 

Next summer's free agents

Monk, Len, Edwards

Monk is gonna get paid next year, whether or not it is in Sacramento. 

Vegas over/under: 44.5 (I'm going Over)

Last year, the Kings busted out in a big way but couldn't find success in the post-season and I think that might happen again this year. This team is deep enough to rock night in/night out but might struggle when the playoffs crunches everything down. I have Monk as 6th Man of the Year and this bench is solid and Coach Brown is the right guy to lead this team. I think they win that stacked Pacific Division.  

Suns

In

Bradley Beal, Jordan Goodwin, Chimezie Metu (1yr/$2.4m), Drew Eubanks (2yr/$5m), Eric Gordon (2yr/$6.6m), Keita Bates-Diop (2yr/$5m), Yuta Watabanbe (2yr/$5m), Bol Bol (1yr/$2.2m), Udoka Azuibuke (2-way), Jusuf Nurkic, Keon Johnson, Grayson Allen, Nasir Little

They really overhauled this team this summer and while we're supposed to think all the moves are great, I dunno, feels like a lot of flash and not much muscle. Beal has long been the most overrated player in the league--which isn't to say he is bad, simply that his reputation of all-world badass hasn't been much deserved. Gordon is a vet perimeter scorer (how many of those does this team need?). Nurkic is injury-prone and ill-defined in his position, not sure what he's gonna do for this team. I like Bates-Diop, Metu, Watanabe and Bol but I'm not sure that any of them will really contribute much. I like Little but I don't see how he fits. Allen has some toughness but isn't consistent enough to earn minutes here. I dunno, man, I think Coach Vogel has a lot of work to do. 

Out

Chris Paul, Landry Shamet, Darius Bazeley, Terrence Ross, Jock Landale, Bismack Biyombo, Torrey Craig, Cam Payne, DeAndre Ayton, Ish Wainwright

I just never understood why this team was so mean to Ayton, just refused to let him develop and shit on every good thing he ever did. Chris Paul, on the other hand, was endlessly lauded despite the worst Game 7 loss in NBA history and all around just being overrated (did I say Beal was the most overrated?). Payne and Craig had moments here, Shamet and Winwright and Landale were better than were given credit for. Biyombo has been washed since...oh wait, he was never actually any good. Outside of Ayton, who they didn't really replace, I don't think any of these other moves are that meaningful. 

Re-signed

Damion Lee (2yr/$5.3m), Josh Okogie (2yr/$5.8m), Seben Lee (2-way) 

Okay. 

Rest of roster

Kevin Durant, Devin Booker

The best duo in the league? No, but they'll score a shit ton of points this year so they are in the discussion.

Next summer's free agents

Allen. Metu, Bol

Gone, gone and gone. 

Vegas over/under: 51.5 (I'm going Under)

I talked a lot of shit for a team that I still have 2nd in this division and 4th in the West. But for all the sturm and drang, I don't love this team and in the wrong match-up, they could look terrible at times. They'll score a ton of points but will they do anything else? I'm not convinced--and I like Coach Vogel. 

Lakers

In

Gabe Vincent (3yr/$33m), Cam Reddish (2yr/$4.6m), Jaxson Hayes (2yr/$4.6m), Taurean Prince (1yr/$4.5m), Christian Wood (2yr/$5.8m), Jalen Hood-Schifino (4yr/$17.9m), Maxwell Lewis (4yr/$7.6m), Collin Castleton (2-way), D'Moi Hodge (2-way), Alex Fudge (2-way)

Nice bunch of new replacements but I can't help feeling none of these guys will "good enough" to satisfy. Wood is a head case, Reddish has yet to actually do anything in this league, Hayes kinda looks like a waste of long legs, Prince is nice but limited and no matter how good Vincent is, he'll always be "undrafted". I dunno, man, in other times on other teams, this would be a nice summer haul but I feel like this batch doesn't win any hearts or minds.  

Out

Malik Beasley, Mo Bamba, Scotty Pippen Jr, Shaq Harrison, Dennis Schroeder, Lonnie Walker, Wenyen Gabriel, Tristan Thompson

On the other end, I think this supporting cast is better. Schroder had good years for the Lakers, Gabriel was there when this squad had nobody, Beasley fits better than Prince, Bamba can be just as useful as Wood, and Lonnie walker had moments. Feels like continuity would've cost the same as a new batch--the fact that they want the new batch is troubling. 

Re-signed

Austin Reaves (4yr/$53.8m), Rui Hachimura (3yr/$51m), D'Angelo Russell (2yr/$36m), Anthony Davis (3yr/$177.1m), Jarred Vanderbilt (4yr/$48m)

Okay, to be fair, the Lakers did re-up the necessary guys from last year. Reaves blew up in the playoffs (and contributed nicely for Team USA) and earned his new contract. Hachimura seems to like basketball again and looks to actually be the player we all thought he could be. Vanderbilt is limited but good at his role. AD getting the big money may seem unnecessary but, hey, man, they're built around him for better or worse, might as well pay him. And Russell is still a good trade piece for this roster. 

Rest of roster

Lebron James, Max Christie

The Hall of Famer and some other dude. 

Next summer's free agents

Prince, Christie

The chances of the Lakers bringing either of these guys back next year is infinitesimal. 

Vegas over/under: 47.5 (I'll go Under)

The core of this team is better than what the Lakers have had in recent years. The emergence of Reaves and having Hachimura and Vanderbilt fall into their lap gives Lebron and AD a better support network than they've had in a while. I think they'll be a better regular season team this year and I even have them finishing 5th in the West but I question how deep they can go in the playoffs, just don't see this crew holding up under withering playoff conditions. 

Warriors

In

GM Mike Dunleavy Jr, Brandin Podziemski (4yr/$16.2m), Cory Joseph (1yr/$3.2m), Trayce Jackson-Davis (4yr/$7.6m), Chris Paul, Dario Saric (1yr/$?), Lester Quinones, Rodney McGruder, Usman Garuba, Rudy Gay, Jerome Robinson (2-way), Javante Green

Does Chris Paul make this team better? No. Frankly, Cory Joseph was all they needed. I think Saric, Garuba and McGruder will give more in the dirty work department. Will Podziemski get any time at all? Wouldn't bet on it. Interesting to see if Rudy Gay has anything left in the tank. 

Out

Donte DiVincenzo, Anthony Lamb, Andre Iguodala, Ty Jerome, Jordan Poole, Patrick Williams, Ryan Rollins, 

I liked Poole more than most and I think the Warriors really fucked up by forcing him out (and James Wiseman, too); you think I'm crazy but there is bad karma hanging over this team and they leaned into the corruption instead of the future. They're gonna miss DiVincenzo, he was a real plus off the bench. 

Re-signed

Draymond Green (4yr/$100m)

For years I argued that Draymond was the real MVP of this team. But now he is the albatross that will drag them back down the standings. Perhaps he still has magic left in him but I suspect his time has passed. 

Rest of roster

Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins, Gary Payton II, Kevon Looney, Jonathon Kuminga, Moses Moody

Steph is still the man. Wiggins is the real-MVP of this team. Looney is the only that gets rebounds. Klay is in the last hurrah year. Payton is here for dirty work and no glory. Kuminga and Moody are next up to take all the blame when it goes wrong. 

Next summer's free agents

Thompson, Saric, Joseph

I think they're all gone next summer. 

Vegas over/under: 48.5 (I'll go Under)

Last year was marked by the slap Draymond laid on Jordan Poole but really what we saw was this team's inability to move on. Instead they shipped out James Wiseman for a bag of balls and couldn't get rid of Poole fast enough, just so they could overpay Draymond one more time (which also guarantees that Klay won't be back next year). You know who most disappointed me last season? Coach Kerr. I'm sorry, man, but for all the kudos we've heaped on him, why did we just let him get away with watching his team combust and try to right the ship by dispatching the future stars to pamper the old farts that won't go away? The Warriors don't deserve to be any good with how they've mismanaged their youth movement (something they don't even acknowledge existed) and unless Kuminga blows up this year--and will he be allowed to?--he and Moody will be next to go so that they can bring back some washed up overrated vet to pretend to keep the magic going. Now that Chris Paul has the ball in his hands, why do we think Kuminga will thrive? Did Ayton thrive? Did Clint Capela thrive? Don't worry, Warriors fans: Bismack Biyombo is available! I dunno, man, the dynasty is over and the long shadow is drawing down--and they were my pre-season pick to win it all just one year ago! 

Clippers

In

Kenyon Martin Jr, Kobe Brown (4yr/$12.4m), Joshua Primo (2-way), Jordan Miller (2-way), Xavier Moon (Exhibition 10)

A second chance for Josh Primo....okay. 

Out

Eric Gordon, Jason Preston

They got Gordon late and while I think they could've used him, he bailed (or vice versa).

Re-signed

Mason Plumlee (1yr/$5m), Russell Westbrook (2yr/$7.9m), Mousssa Diabate (2-way)

Most will think bringing back Westbrook was a mistake but I thought Westbrook was pretty good for the Clippers last year and probably they're best chance at having a big season. Likewise, with Plumlee, he fits them and its good to bring him back. 

Rest of roster

Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, Normal Powell, Marcus Morris, Nicolas Batum, Robert Covington, Ivica Zubac, Terence Mann, Amir Coffey, Bones Hyland, Brandon Boston

I mean, does anyone expect Kawhi and/or PG to play? Powell is nice but Morris is getting old, Batum is already old, Covington is limited, Zubac is fine but not a difference maker, Coffey and Hyland are probably too big for their britches and still waiting for BJ Boston to turn into something. Is Terence Mann really worthy of the hype they're trying to lay on him? 

Next summer's free agents

Morris, Batum, Covington, Plumlee, Martin, Boston, Diabate

My guess is they're all gone and next summer will be a major overhaul for this franchise. 

Vegas over/under: 46.5 (I gotta go Under)

Why will this team win 47 games? If Kawhi plays like Kawhi for 82 games, this could be the best team in the league--do you think that's gonna happen? If PG plays like PG for 82 games, they would probably comfortably be a playoff team--do you think that's gonna happen? If Terence Mann blows up into an all-pro player, this team could be solid and kinda dangerous--do you think that's gonna happen? I think they'll be up and down, have tantalizing moments that vanish as soon as someone goes back on the DL. I could see a fire sale at some point, but the only real prize potential is Boston (do the Clippers give him away or can they actually get some value for him?). Look, if the Clippers show up and do their best, they could be really good, I just don't think that's gonna happen.

2023-24 NBA Pre-Season (Southwest Division)

Grizzlies

In

Derrick Rose (2yr/$6.6m), Marcus Smart, GG Jackson (2-way), Shaq Harrison (Exhibit 10), Adonis Arms, David Johnson

Smart has plenty of grit-and-grind in him, Memphis fans should love him. But I'm not sure a combo of Smart and D-Rose (and no Tyus Jones) will be enough to make up for the 25 game suspension of Ja. I know it doesn't seem like they lost a lot but I feel like they needed a little more than (basically) just Smart.  

Out

Tyus Jones, Dillon Brooks

Jones has been arguably the best 2nd string PG in the league for several years now--and you may think that doesn't matter but it does! The PG off the bench has to keep the attack up with lesser players and without a team can give away the advantage of superior starters. I'm telling you: losing Jones is a big deal for this team. Oh, and I love Brooks! And losing him is gonna be tough on this team, too. Granted Brooks was given to selifh, ridiculous outbursts but within the run of play he was actually very controlled and did well to not overstep his bounds, the Grizz are gonna miss his defensive intensity and his offensive restraint. I get that his downfall against Lebron in the playoffs last year was kinda hilarious, but Brooks is a good player and he'll be tough to replace. 

Re-signed

Desmond Bane (5yr/($197.5m)

I love Bane, perhaps the most underappreciated player in the league the last few years. He kinda does everything well and without Ja, he's kinda all they got. Great deal, he's probably worth more. 

Rest of roster

Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr, Luke Kennard, Steven Adams, Brandon Clarke, Zaire Williams, Jake LaRavia, David Roddy, John Konchar, Santi Aldama, Xavier Tillman, Kenneth Lofton

Ja will be serving a 25-game suspension to start the season. Jackson won DPOY last year (with basically identical numbers as Nic Claxton) but I found his performance with Team USA kinda lackluster this summer (yeah, yeah, different venue, different game, but still I expected a little more from the reigning DPOY). I don't like JJJ has much as most, he's fine but I don't see him as the cornerstone of this team (especially without Ja). Kennard is a nice player, gives the Grizz the perimeter scorer they've never really had but he also tends to play his way out of rotations. Adams seems like a really cool guy and a perfectly serviceable vet down low, but he's also hurt all the time and only getting older. Clarke and Williamd and LaRavia and Roddy and Konchar and Aldama and Loften all have their moments, but really none of them have ever done much in this league. 

Next summer's free agents

Tillman

Meh. 

Vegas over/under: 45.5 (I gotta go Under)

The Grizzlies have done pretty well without Ja over the last coupla years, but 25 games to start the season will be a tough period for them, followed by another 10-15 games of Ja getting his game back and they have to add in Smart while getting over the loss of Jones and Brooks. I dunno, man, I think that's a tougher road than most are anticipating especially considering a supporting cast that has a lot of pebbles but not many boulders. I never really noticed how down on this team I am until now but I'm not that in on the Grizz this season. I think they struggle all season, then win a bunch late to get them into the play-in (where I have them beating the Wolves for 7th place). Can they fart around all season and then turn it on late? Maybe. Can they win without Ja and endure changes in the roster without skipping a beat? Eh, I suppose its possible but I don't think so. This might be a lost season for the Grizz. 

Mavs

In

Richaun Holmes, Dereck Lively (4yr/$22.3m), Grant Williams, Dante Exum (2yr/$6.2m), Seth Curry (2yr/$8m), Olivier Maxence-Prosper (4yr/$13.9m), Greg Brown III (Exhibit 10), Derrick Jones Jr (1yr/$2.7m), Dexter Dennis (Exhibit 10), 

I always like Holmes. Williams will give them a PJ Tucker-ish toughness the Mavs haven't had in a while. And if Lively and/or Olivier can give them good minutes on defense, then that trio will pay off big time. Curry to add scoring off the bench, Exum to...what does he do? (Been in the league for 100 years and I'm not sure I've ever watched him once!) Feels like a pretty good summer for the Mavs.  

Out

McKinley Wright, Christian Wood, Frank Ntilikina, Justin Holliday, Theo Pinson, Davis Bertans, Reggie Bullock, JaVale Mcgee

Meh. Nothing irreplaceable in there. 

Re-signed

Kyrie Irving (3yr/$126m), Dwight Powell (3yr/$12m), Markieff Morris (1yr/$3.2m)

Gulp! Okay, well Kyrie isn't anyone's idea of a good time--and, oh hey! He costs $125 million! *nervous laughter* A bargain! Heh heh....*gulp*  They had to do it, they couldn't afford to let that price point just walk out of the building, but, man, is he really the guy you want to build around for the next 3 years (or until his next grand realization about life)? I like Powell, that's a great deal. Very reasonable price for Markieff, too.  

Rest of roster

Luke Doncic, Tim Hardaway Jr, Maxi Kleber, Josh Green, Jaden Hardy

Luka is still top 5 in this league and that's pretty good. The rest make for a nice rotation. Do Green or Hardy have leaps to make?

Next summer's free agents

Green

Time to see what they've got with Green, he's had moments but Dallas might not be the best fit for him, so he could be a change-of-scenery trade piece. 

Vegas over/under: 46.5 (I'm going Under)

I like Luka as much as the next guy, but his presence alone doesn't get you 50 wins. Kyrie's talent is unimpeachable but his ability to not contribute is, too, and I just always feel queasy about any team that relies heavily on him. As for the rotation, well, I'd like them better if the lead dog was either Luka or Kyrie, rather than some unholy amalgam of the two. Also, still not convinced Jason Kidd is much of a coach and, yeah, I've got real questions about this team. I think their run to the conference finals 2 years ago was a bit of a fluke, and I can't help thinking they're closer to the low (not making the playoffs last year) than their high. Sorry, Mavs fans, I'm just not feeling this team. I have them playing their win into the playoffs and then losing pronto to the Nuggets. 

Pelicans

In

Jordan Hawkins (4yr/$20.6m), Cody Zeller (1yr/$3.2m), Kaiser Gates (2-way),  Tevian Jones (Exhibit 10), Malcolm Hill (Exhibit 10), Jalen Crutcher, Trey Jemison (Exhibit 10)

None of these guys are making or breaking this team. 

Out

Willy Hernandez, Javonte Smart, Jaxson Hayes, Josh Richardson, Garrett Temple

None of those guys made nor broke this team. 

Re-signed

EJ Liddell (3yr/$6.2m), Herb Jones (4yr/$53.8m), Nnaji Marshall (4yr/$5.3m)

Great deal for Jones, a reliable 3-and-D man. Marshall is a nice player and that's a good deal. Liked Liddell in NCAA, haven't really seen him since, looks like an affordable deal, though. 

Rest of roster

CJ McCollum, Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram, Jonas Valenciunas, Larry Nance, Dyson Daniels, Kira Lewis Jr, Trey Murphy, Naji Marshall, Jose Alvarado

Okay, Zion, are you playing this year or...taking another year off? If Zion shows this team could be pretty good, but until they figure out his mercurial moods, this team will live in the Twilight Zone. I Like McCollum and Ingram and Jonas and Nance and all the rest just fine, this is a pretty good supporting cast for a star. Just waiting to see if the star shines or not. 

Next summer's free agents

Valenciunas, Lewis, Hernangomez, Zeller

I think I'd be surprised if any of these dudes are back next year. 

Vegas over/under: 44.5 (I'll go Under)

Hey, if Zion shows up, this team could be top 4 in the West. But if he doesn't, they'll be struggling to be a play-in team. I'm guessing he'll be in and out all year long, so I got them at the lower end of that range. I have them finishing 10th and then losing in the play-in. I always had doubts about Zion's durability and...I still do. 

Rockets

In

Amen Thompson (4yr/$40m), Cam Whitmore (4yr/$15.6m), Fred Van Vleet (3yr/$128.5m), Jeff Green (1yr/$15m), Jock Landale (4yr/$32m), Dillon Brooks, Aaron Holiday (1yr/$2.4m), Jermaine Samuels (2-way), Nate Hinton (Exhibit 10), Reggie Bullock (1yr/$3.2m), Victor Oladipo, Jeremish Robinson-Earl, Coach Ime Udoke

Okay, nice mix of vets I like (Van Vleet, Green, Brooks, Bullock), promising rookies (Thomson, Whitmore), some bench thickeners (Holiday, Landale, Robinson-Earl) and even a who-knows wild card (Oladipo), and a brand new hard-ass coach (Udoke) to pull it out together with the youth movement already under way. The Rockets will be different this year, that's for sure. 

Out

Daishen Nix, DJ Augustine, Willie Cauley-Stein, Frank Kaminsky, Michael Frazier, TyTy Washington, Usman Garuba, Josh Christopher, Kenyon Martin Jr, Kevin Porter Jr

I liked Garuba, Christopher and Nix but they aren't devastating losses. I didn't even know they had Willie Cauley, DJA or Frank the Tank. And, frankly, they needed to be rid of Kevin Porter Jr (and I'm not even referring to his off the court legal troubles). So no big losses--and some real addition by subtraction here. 

Re-signed

Boban Marjonivic (1yr), Darius Days (2-way), Trevor Hudgins (2-way)

Boban is back! 

Rest of roster

Jalen Green, Jabari Smith, Jae'Sean Tate, Alperen Sengun, Tari Eason

And we come to the core. Time for Green to take a step forward, for Sengun to continuing maturing into a real center of gravity, Smith to continuing his steady development last year, and for Tate and Eason to just keep doing what they do.

Next summer's free agents

Oladipo, Holiday, Marjanovic, Bullock

None of those guys will be back next year. 

Vegas over/under: 31.5 (I went Under)

Yeah, I like the moves they made this summer and they've laid the groundwork for a meaningful turnaround. This could be the team that blows up. If all these moves work out, if the vets contribute like they're supposed to, the rookies fit in just right and young core each take a step forward under the new vision of a powerful coach, this team could be really fuckin' good right away. I'm not betting on it, though, even in a shaky division. I just kinda feel like this team has gotten used to being slack and it will take a little while before Coach Udoke drills winning into them. Next year, I can see them shocking the hell out of people but not this year (I'd be shocked if it was this year). 

 

 Spurs

In

Victor Wembemyama (4yr/$55.6m), Sir'Jabari Rice (2-way), Cedi Osman, Sidy Cissoko (3yr/$5.2m), Charles Bediako (Exhibit 10), 

The Wemby has landed. I'll go ahead and say this about Wemby's Rookie year: I think he's gonna have crazy ups and crazy downs and every time the talking heads say something good, they'll quickly find something bad to follow it with. The highlights are already impressive but while he'll dominate some match-ups, he'll struggle in others, leaving us to wonder all year long if he's really the deal. I think he's really the deal but I also think the Spurs will shut down at some point and he won't play enough games to impress the ROY voters (though I think the ROY voters typically do it all wrong and he might still be worthy of the Award even if he doesn't win it). Curious to see if Osman blows up this year (I've been waiting and this actually might be the year). 

Out

Romeo Langford, Gorgui Dieng, Keita Bates-Diop 

I always liked Dieng but he was long past his prime. I always liked Bates-Diop, too, but he was kinda built to bounce around. Never saw it with Langford. 

Re-signed

Devin Vassell (5yr/$135m), Coach Popovic (5yr/$80m), Tre Jones (2yr/$19m), Julian Champagnie (4yr/$12m), Dominck Barlow (2-way), Sandro Mamukelashvili (1yr/$2m)

Coach Pop wanted 5 more years, huh? Either he really believes in Wemby or....he had nothing better to do anyway (could be both, I guess). I like Vassell, the deal seems a little rich but now was the time, so it was a good deal. Jones, Champagnie and Mamukelashvili will play in this rotation. 

Rest of roster

Keldon Johnson, Doug McDermott, Devonte Graham, Zach Collins, Khem Birch, Jeremy Sochan, Malaki Branham, Charles Bassey, Blake Wesley

Nice supporting cast and now they've got a star to build around. 

Next summer's free agents

McDermott, Collins, Birch, Osman, Mamukelashvili, Cissoko

I see no way that McDermott or Birch are back next year. Collins and Osman are playing for their next deals, could be in San Antone. The other two need to fit their way in. 

Vegas over/under: 28.5 (I'll go Under)

I'm going Under because I think the Spurs aren't in any hurry with Wemby. They've got three 1st round picks in each of the next 2 drafts, I think the mission for now is to acclimate Wemby and then fill it in around him. They've already got a nice supporting cast but slowly shedding those guys for the next mix of vets and rookies is the long term plan. The Spurs aren't in any hurry to win and they'll shut Wemby down at some point. But we'll get a nice pile of highlights, looking forward to them already. 

2023-24 NBA Pre-Season (Central Division)

Bucks

In

Damian Lillard, Cam Payne (1yr/$2.9m), Robin Lopez (1yr/$3.2m), Malik Beasley (1yr/$2.7m), Andre Jackson Jr (4yr/$7.6m), Chris Livingston (4yr/$7.6m), Jazian Gorman (Exhibit 10), TyTy Washington (2-way), Marques Bolden (Exhibit 10)

Okay, Lillard's new home turns out to be Milwaukee, the offensive attack of this squad should be staggering....defense on the other hand will likely suffer....so....will the improvement outweigh the decline? Payne, Beasley and (the other) Lopez are nice bench-thickeners. Curious to see if they can get anything out of TyTy, a little nugget of youth, if nothing else. 

Out

Jevon Carter, Goran Dagic, Joe Ingles, Meyers Leonard, Wesley Matthews, Jrue Holiday, Grayson Allen 

Losing Holiday is rugged but the replacement should be worth it; Holiday is one of the great lockdown perimeter defenders in the league and while his offense kinda comes and goes, they never really needed him for that, so trading out their best defender for an offensive upgrade is not guaranteed to work (I think it will, though). As for the rest, easy come, easy go. 

Re-signed

Khris Middleton (3yr/$93m), Brook Lopez (2 yr/$48m), AJ Green (3yr/$6.3m), Jae Crowder (1yr/$3.2m)

Middleton is the real key of this team: I noticed years ago that Middleton is one that gets going and then gets Giannis--not the other way around. With Dame, Middleton's role may be a bit more manageable, which would seem to be what he needs. We'll see. Bringing back Lopez was a must, his eventual decline could be scary but I think he's got two more years in him. Re-signing Crowder is a bit of a puzzle since he seemed totally out of the rotation last year in the playoffs (which is what they got him for, right?). So now that Coach Bud is gone, Crowder will recover his form....? 

Rest of roster

Giannis Antetokounpo, Bobby Portis, Pat Connaughton, MarJon Beauchamp

Giannis may well be rejuvenated with Dame coming in, I assume he'll be getting MVP votes. Portis coming off a so-so run with Team USA is probably ready to get back to the NBA. Connaughton is still a contributor, I think Dame will make good use of him. And the buzz is that Beauchamp is ready to make a jump. 

Next summer's free agents

Beasley, Crowder, Robin Lopez, Jackson, Washington, Payne, Green (non-guaranteed)

Easy come, easy go. 

Vegas over/under: 56.5 (I'll go Over)

Yeah, they might not need to be that good but with a new coach and a new big star in the fold, I think this team will need to bust ass in the regular season and will want to keep pace with the Celtics, so I think the Bucks take the regular season seriously and make a run at the #1 seed. And while I think their perimeter D takes a hit, I can see Dame running this offense to perfection, he's gonna make it easy for Middleton and Connaughton and Portis, so even though they'll be allowing more points, I think they're gonna outscore most everyone they play. This should probably be the #1 offense in the league. 

Cavs

In

Craig Porter Jr, Georges Niang (3yr/$25.5m), Ty Jerome (2yr/$4.6m), Max Strus, Emoni Bates (2-way), Damian Jones, Justin Powell (Exhibit 10), Tristan Thompson (1yr/$3.2m), Pete Nance (Exhibit 10), Sharife Cooper (Exhibit 10), Zhaire Smith (Exhibit 10) 

Niang, Strus and Jones will thicken that bench, good pick-ups, I like all those dudes and I think they fit nicely here. 

Out

Danny Green, Dylan Windler, Mamadi Diakite, Raul Neto, Robin Lopez, Cedi Osman, Lamar Stevens 

I always liked Osman but he never really did develop here, did he? So not really a big loss (even if he blows up somewhere else). 

Re-signed

Isaiah Mobley (2-way), Caris LaVert (2yr/$32m), Evan Mobley (exercised rookie extension)

The Mobley brothers are in, that's nice. LaVert is a nice scorer but I never thought he was the right fit for the Cavs, kinda feel like he might be flipped in a trade by the deadline. 

Rest of roster

Darius Garland, Donovan Mitchell, Jarrett Allen, Isaac Okoro, Ricky Rubio, Dean Wade, Sam Merrill

Mitchell has made it clear he does not want to re-sign with the Cavs, not necessarily an indication that he'll be traded by the deadline but if this team goes sideways, I guarantee he'll be the first one moved. If not, I can see this team being really good this year and maybe a playoff run inspires to embrace this squad. Garland, Allen and Okoro (and Mobley) are the real core of this team and Mitchell is just the icing. I always loved Rubio, glad to see him back where he was having some success before his last injury. 

Next summer's free agents

Okoro, Jones, Isaiah Mobley

Okoro looks like a keeper. Jones and (the other) Mobley are probably inexpensive enough to hold on to.  

Vegas over/under: 50.5 (I'm going Under)

I like the Cavs and they won 51 last year but I have them at 50 (a slight Under) but they've got a sword hanging over them and that is Donovan Mitchell. Clearly Mitchell wants to move on but if the Cavs are winning, how do you get rid of him? And if they're losing, how do the Cavs get value? My gut is that Mitchell is a pro, know he's got a good squad and will bring the ball all season, but he's never really had a good playoff run, so the summer may bring a fresh round of angst. 

Pacers

In

Bruce Brown (2yr/$45m), Obi Toppin, Ben Sheppard (4yr/$13m), Jarace Walker (4yr/$27.6m), Isaiah Wong (2-way), Oscar Tshiebwe (2-way)

I like Brown, the kind of guy that just adds to any team you add him to, I think he's gonna be pretty great for the Pacers. I like Toppin, too, never really found himself with the Knicks, should get a chance to flourish with the Pacers. Don't know about Sheppard or Walker, but let me give a Kentucky fan plea for Tshiebwe: I'm telling you, man, in NCAA he was one of the best rebounders I've ever seen and I think it will translate to the next level; he probably won't score enough to make him a fan favorite, but I think his downlow big man skills (a la Andre Drummond), will keep him in this league and even make him relatively successful. 

Out

Gabe York, George Hill, James Johnson, Osahe Brissett, Chris Duarte

I like Duarte but he was always just a placeholder in Indy. 

Re-signed

Tyrese Haliburton (5yr/$205.5m), Kendall Brown (2-way), Exercised rookie extensions on Bennedict Mathurin and Isaiah Jackson

Haliburton should get some MVP attention (yeah, I said it! Not saying he'll win but he'll get votes), after being (I thought) the MVP of Team USA in the World Cup this summer. I think Haliburton is the next great player in this league and he's gonna step up and be awesome this season. 

Rest of roster

Myles Turner, Buddy Hield, Daniel Theis, TJ McConnell, Aaron Nesmith, Jalen Smith, Jordan Nwora, Andrew Nembhard

When packed around Haliburton, Mathurin, Brown and Toppin, this makes a helluva supporting cast. On the other hand, this is a jumble of tradeable pieces, as well. I like Turner and Hield and McConnell and Nesmeth and Smith and even Theis, but I can see every single one of those dudes getting a cold shoulder next summer or trade talks until then. That said, I think Haliburton will keep this team good enough all year long to avoid much of the deleterious talk. 

Next summer's free agents

Hield, Toppin, Nesmith, Nwora, McConnell (non-guaranteed)

All of those dudes are playing for the next contracts, maybe in Indy, maybe somewhere else. 

Vegas over/under: 38.5 (I'll go Over)

This is an easy one. If Halliburton stays healthy, the Pacers will definitely be above.500. He alone will carry this team to the next level. If he gets hurt, however, this team can be chopped up for parts and converted to a lottery team with a quickness, so this season is all about Haliburton and his health. 

Bulls

In

Adama Sanogo (2-way), Jevon Carter (3yr/$19.5m), Julian Phillips (4yr/$8.1m), Torrey Craig (2yr/$5.4m), Onralp Bitim (2-way), Quentin Jackson (Exhibit 10)

Uhhhhhh....I don't know what any of these guys are supposed to do for the Bulls.

Out

Derrick Jones Jr, Javonte Green, Justin Lewis, Patrick Beverley, Marko Simonovic

Meh. I don't know what any of these guys could've done for the Bulls this year. 

Re-signed

Andre Drummond (1yr/$3.4m team option), Nikola Vucevic (3yr/$60m), Coby White (3yr/$36m), Ayo Dosunmu (3yr/$21m), Terry Taylor (2yr/$4.2m)

I love Vucevic and Dosunmu and I'm not out on Coby White, but I don't see how they improve this squad. 

Rest of roster

Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan, Lonzo Ball, Patrick Williams, Alex Caruso, Dalen Terry

DeRozan is trade bait, Williams might be, too. Caruso, too, will be coveted by a lot of teams. Lonzo seems likely to not play at all this year (if ever again).

Next summer's free agents

DeRozan, Williams, Drummond

I assume all three will be gone by year's end. 

Vegas over/under: 37.5 (Gotta go Under)

Yeah, this team is built to tread water while trades get sorted out. That said, there is some talent, they won't be a total disaster, but just good enough to make sure they don't get a great draft pick. Not good enough to make the playoffs, not bad enough to be assured of a top 3 pick, this is the worst place to be in all of sports. I assume Coach Donovan will be gone by year's end, too (a mercy killing). I just don't see how this team gets good this year--or gets bad enough to get good next year! Indeed, don't be surprised if the move is to trade DeRozan for long term contract (say, Jeremi Grant of the Blazers) and while that gives them assurance going forward, it doesn't make them a better team in the East. Long year for Bulls fans ahead. 

Pistons

In

Asuar Thompson (4yr/$36.2m), Marcus Sasser (4yr/$13.5m), Joe Harris, Monte Morris, Zavier Simpson (Exhibit 10), Jontay Porter (Exhibit 10)

People seem to be digging these Thompson twins, the Pistons have drafted well recently, looks like another young stud to build around. Hey, I always liked Joe Harris (and he makes Bogdanovic an immediate trade chip), if they can get anything out of him, then he could be a nice scorer off the bench. Morris, too, is a reliable vet, not a star but a nice contributor. 

Out

RJ Hampton, Cory Joseph, Hamidou Diallo, Rodney McGruder, Eugene Omoruyi

I always liked Diallo, but this Piston rotation is rather crowded with dudes who need to shine out. Hampton, too, just couldn't find space in the crowd. 

Re-signed

Isaiah Stewart (4yr/$60m), Jared Rhoden (2-way), Buddy Boeheim (Exhibit 10), Stanley Umude (Exhibit 10), exercised rookie extensions on Cade Cunningham, Jaden Ivey and Jalen Duren

I like Stewart, interesting deal, good to lock him up, I'd say. Picking up the extensions on Cunningham, Ivey and Duren are no-brainers. 

Rest of roster

Bojan Bogdanovic, Marvin Bagley, James Wiseman, Alec Burks, Killian Hayes, Isaiah Livers

Hey, man, I'm still in on Wiseman and Bagley, still Livers and not completely out on Hayes (he just needs to be a reliable ball handler off the bench). Bogdanovic and Burks are nice vets that could be audtiioning for the trade deadline. 

Next summer's free agents

Harris, Wiseman, Burks, Morris, Hayes, Livers, Bogdanovic non-guaranteed

I'd say the Pistons front office is really rooting for Wiseman and Livers to blow up, to soldify their young core. I'd be kinda shocked if Harris, Morris or Hayes were back next year.

Vegas over/under: 28.5 (I'm going Over)

I think the Pistons can go way Over and still never challenge for the post-season, which is exactly what this team is, I think. They're gonna have ups and downs, they won't compete consistently enough with the good teams to stay in playoff range but they'll have moments where they feast on shit teams. When this rotation really comes into its own, they could be fuckin' amazing. I think they'll make a nice jump this year but next year is the real money melon season.

2023-24 NBA Pre-Season (Northwest Division)

Nuggets

In

Julian Strawther (4yr/$12.5m), Hunter Tyson (4yr/$7.7m), Jalen Pickett (4yr/$8.2m), Justin Holiday (1yr/$3.2m), Braxton Key (2-way), Jay Huff (2-way), Amida Brimah, Au'Diese Toney, Jamarko Pickett

I dunno any of these guys. None of these guys will be important enough to be awesome or detrimental. Rosters need x number of guys and these guys add up to x. 

Out

Bruce Brown, Thomas Bryant, Ish Smith, Jeff Green

Brown was a big part of this team last year and while I don't think he's irreplaceable, his absence will bring about some kind of readjustment; the Nuggets will be fine but the way the GM threw him under the bus recently was puzzling. Green, too, was a nice vet contributor for the last coupla seasons, he's become quite a reliable vet after years of being the most up/down dude I'ver ever seen. I like Bryant and Ish, but neither of them ever really fit into this team. 

Re-signed

Reggie Jackson (2yr/$10.2m), DeAndre Jordan (1yr/$3.2m), Peyton Watson (exercised rookie extension), Connor Gillespie (2-way)

Very reasonable deal for Reggie Jax, to me he is a night off for Jokic kinda guy, a break glass in case of emergency guy; I don't see him as a regular bench guy, I see him as occasionally going nuts guy, we'll see. I have no idea what their fascination with DeAndre is, this guy has been washed for years. Supposedly they're expecting to get big minutes out of Watson this year (part of the Brown replacement?).

Rest of roster

Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr, Aaron Gordon, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Zeke Nnaji, Christian Braun, Vlatko Cancar

I like Jokic to win another MVP, so that kinda tells you everything about this team. Murray and Porter and Gordon make for a fiercesome foursome and I like how they use KCP and Braun. Anything they get out of Nnaji and Cancar--and I like both of them--is pure bonus. 

Next summer's free agents

Nnaji, Jordan, Holiday

Nnaji just re-upped. The others probably get replaced by a new round of free agent vets next summer, I'm guessing. 

Vegas over/under: 52.5 (I'll go Over)

I have the Nuggets repeating as #1 in the West and winning the championship as Jokic grabs another MVP. So...what else is there to say?

Thunder

In

Vasilije Micic (3yr/$23.6m), Cason Wallace (4yr/$24.1m), Davis Bertans, Keyontae Johnson (2-way),  Jack White (2yr/$3.9m)

I got a feeling that Micic and Wallace are both gonna be nice players on a team already filled with nice players. My gut is that Wallace sticks with the Thunder and Micic gets moved (for another tantalizing haul of drafts picks!) at the deadline to a playoff team looking to bolster its bench (say, the Bucks or Heat). I can see Bertans being a nice bucket-getter off the bench (yeah, I'm one of those that remembers his days in San Antone when he never missed, unlike every year since when he's mostly missed). 

Out

Dario Saric

Oh yeah, Saric ended up in OKC last year. I like Saric but clearly he won't be missed here. 

Re-signed

Coach Mark Daigneault (multi-year extension), Lindy Waters (2-way), Olivier Sarr (2-way)

Coach Daigneault is in a so-far-so-good kinda place, this extension is an optimistic affirmation of the job he's done so far and while it may blow up on them later on, so far, I'd say so good. I have absolutely no thoughts on Waters (don't know) or Sarr (recognize the name from past mock drafts but otherwise I don't know him). 

Rest of roster

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luguntz Dort, Chet Holmgren, Josh Giddey, Kenrich Williams, Aleksej Pokusevski, Ousmane Dieng, Jalen Williams, Tre Mann, Jaylin Williams, Isaiah Joe, Aaron Wiggins

I think SGA is a legit MVP candidate, he's been getting better every year and he still has room to improve even more. My favorite SGA quality: this guy doesn't play for the refs, he doesn't even seem to notice that they exist--god, I love that! After all these post-Clippers years where every call draws some kind of grumpy response, I can't even express how refreshing it is to watch a player that just plays.

I love Dort but I can't help feeling he is the prime trade chip on this team and will likely be shipped out in the next upgrading. Some team is gonna get a great defender (a young PJ Tucker), and it could be OKC depending on how well this squad blows up. 

Holmgren is my pick for ROY, I think he's gonna be an important part of this rotation right away and gonna be awesome. Also, I just don't see Wemby playing as many games: OKC is ready to be good now and they will want maximize Chet, while the Spurs are still in suck-now mode and will surely shut Wemby down at some point. 

I love Giddy. That guy is a taller, smoother Ricky Rubio--and I still love Ricky Rubio! 

Kenrich Williams is a nice veteran role guy but he could also be playing another team by year's end, depending on how OKC wants to build heading into the post-season. Likewise, with Pokusevski, who is hovering between still being the next golden light of this roster or the next train out of town. I like both of these guys (and Micic and Dort, too), but these strike me as the pieces that either bake into the bread or become ingredients for some other baker. 

So many youngsters to roll out, so much depth, how many of these guys are worthwhile contributors and how many will be out the league soon enough? I have no idea. But I feel the Thunder have a great collection of youth. 

Next summer's free agents

Pokusevski

Okay, Poku. Sink or swim time. If he could knock down a 20-footer, I still think he can be a hell of a player. If he gets hot in a Thunder uniform, he might be here forever. If not, I can see him being moved at the deadline or released next summer. We'll see, I'm honestly sure where he goes from here. 

Vegas over/under: 44.5 (I'll go Over)

These guys might be awesome--like really really awesome--this year. The Warriors are getting old, the Wolves aren't ready to be great, the Grizzlies will be without Ja for a long stretch, who knows what's going on with the Pelicans--point being, there is plenty of room for the Thunder to steal a lot of lunch money this year. I can see this team being a Coach Bud classic night in/night out murder squad that gets in rhythm and rolls right up over people. Can they be the best in the West in the regular season? I think it's very possible, this team has nothing better to do but win e'ry damn night and if their youth gets properly mixed in, they could be a juggernaut. Or....maybe the youth is too spotty to finish out games and they struggle to really find an identity. But I think the former is more likely than the latter: SGA runs this team and Chet is gonna get his focus this year and the roster will fall in line (or get shipped out pronto). I like them to be kinda awesome in the regular season, though the playoffs will be a different story and they may find themselves up against a goliath. 

Wolves

In

Luka Garza (2-way), Jaylen Clark (2-way), Leonard Miller (4yr/$8.3m), Shake Milton (2yr/$10m), Troy Brown Jr (2yr/$8m), Vit Krejci, Daishen Nix, Trevor Keels, Tyrese Martin

Bench-thickeners but not life-changing additions here. The Wolves are top heavy with stars getting big paychecks so it makes sense that the incomings would be of the around-the-edges type. I like Milton and I can see Nix getting some big minutes at times off the bench.

Out

Nathan Knight, Taurean Prince, Austin Rivers, Jaylen Nowell

A little surprised they didn't keep Rivers, seems like a good vet that could be had at a very reasonable price. Prince is nice but not irreplaceable. 

Re-signed

Anthony Edwards (5yr/$205.9m), Nickeil Alexander-Walker (2yr/$9m)

Is Edwards your NBA MVP? Well, probably not, but he's definitely ready to take a big step. I like NAW, he'll be a regular in their 2nd string (and that's not unimportant). 

Rest of roster

Rudy Gobert, Karl-Anthony Towns, Mike Conley, Naz Reid, Kyle Anderson, Jaden McDaniels, Wendell Moore Jr, Jordan McLaughlin, Josh Minott

Sink or swim year for this squad. I have the Wolves finishing in the top 6, I'm expecting this roster to persevere and comfortably make the playoffs. But....if it all goes sideways, who gets thrown overboard? My guess is Towns is the one that had the highest trade value but it could be that the supporting cast might need to be overhauled, too (in which case: see ya later, Conley and Anderson). But I'm betting that the major crisis will be held off until next summer, when the overhaul may happen regardless of how this team competes.  

Next summer's free agents

Conley, Anderson, McDaniels, McLaughlin

Well, McDaniels has cast some spell over the Wolves brass, so it seems like heaven and earth will be moved to bring him back--unless a king's ransom is out there in the trade market (which I don't see happening). The other three are likely not gonna be on this team next year. 

Vegas over/under: 44.5 (I'll go Over)

I have the Wolves finishing 7th in the West, then getting bounced in the play-in rounds. I don't dislike this team, though last summer's big trade (bringing in Gobert) didn't make much sense to me, but I think after a year together, this can be a pretty good team. But as much as I like Edwards, I don't see him as a natural team leader, so he's a dubious choice to be the face of the franchise. Towns is too aloof and has a weird game, so even though he's got a big paycheck and big stats, he's not a natural leader either. Gobert is the highest paid of the bunch but also has the most one-note game and isn't the leader either. Feels like the team wants McDaniels to be the leader--but that ain't happening, either. This team has a lot of talent but I'm still not sure how any of them fit together (and actually Conley is the leader whether anyone likes it or not). I think their talent is good enough to pile up 45 wins and get them into a strong play-in position, but when the bright lights shine, I don't think this team can pull it together and they'll be scrambling hard next summer to make the next big move. 

Jazz

In

John Collins, Keyontae George (4yr/$18.8m), Brice Sensabaugh (4yr/$12.6m), Taylor Hendricks (4yr/$25.4m), Omer Yurtseven (2yr/$5.5m), Joey Hauser (2-way), Romeo Langford (2-way), Josh Christopher (2-way), Keyshan Justice, Michael Devoe

George looks like a ROY candidate and Collins is a talented player who needed a change of scenery. The rest will have their moments to contribute. 

Out

Juan Toscano-Anderson, Hassan Whiteside, Udoka Azubuike, Vernon Carey Jr, Rudy Gay, Damian Jones

I always kinda wondered about Azubuike, but the rest don't feel like much of a loss to this team. 

Re-signed

Jordan Clarkson (2yr/$28.4m), Johnny Juzang (2-way)

I personally would've moved on from Clarkson and I still see him as trade bait more than a rotation player (but I don't watch the Jazz much, I suppose). I still believe in Juzang, that guy was a born filler upper in the NCAA, I think that can translate. 

Rest of roster

Collin Sexton, Lauri Markkanen, Kelly Olynyk, Talen Horton-Tucker, Ochai Agbaji, Simone Fontecchio,Walker Kessler, Kris Dunn, Luka Semanic

Sexton, Markkanenen and Kessler are the current core to build around and that's not bad. I see Olynyk and Horton-Tucker as trade bait, since I don't see the Jazz as a playoff team this year. Still waiting to see what Agbaji is going to be, could be a nice addition to the rotation. I've long been out on Dunn (surprised he's still around) and Fontecchio is not built for the NBA. 

Next summer's free agents

Olynyk, Horton-Tucker, Fontecchio, Dunn, Semanic

I don't see any of those guys on the 2024-25 Jazz roster. 

Vegas over/under: 35.5 (I'm going Over)

Yes, I'll go over but I still don't see them being in the playoff hunt. I like these guys and if George and Collins add to the team, then they could be pretty good. But I don't see enough identity here, they are a nice collection of nice players that play nicely, but that's not striking fear into any hearts out there. They've got a wheeler-dealer in the GM spot, so this team can go way up or way down from here, but as is, I think this is a nice team that finishes 12th in the West. 

Blazers

In

Scoot Henderson (4yr/$44.4m), Deandre Ayton, Robert Williams, Malcolm Brogdon, Kris Murray (4yr/$14.3m), Rayan Rupert (3yr/$5.2m), Duop Reath (Exhibit 10), Toumani Camara

Ladies and gentlemen, your brand new Portland Trail Blazers are here. Scoot is the future, Ayton is the reclamation project, Williams is the defense in the middle, Brogdon is the vet off the bench, Murray and Rupert are the next rookie experiments (50/50 on both). I don't see them winning a ton this year but down the line, these moves are gonna work. 

Out

Damian Lillard, Cam Reddish, Trendon Watford, Drew Eubanks, Justise Winslow, Jusef Nurkic, Keon Johnson, Nassir Little

Dame time has run out. The cupboard isn't bare in Portland, in fact it may be better than its been in a while. But the face of the franchise has moved on and that is a mighty transition (feel like there will be a lot of Bucks fans in Portland at least for the next year). As for the rest, well, I liked Watford (kinda surprised they let him go) and Little but otherwise the rest of entirely replaceable. 

Re-signed

Jerami Grant (5yr/$160m), Matisse Thybulle (3ys/$33m), Shaedon Sharpe (exercised rookie extension), Kevin Knox (1yr/$?), Skylar Mays (2-way), George Condit (Exhibit 10), Justin Minaya (Exhibit 10), Ibou Badji (2-way), John Butler Jr (2-way)

I think Grant is trade bait, maybe this year but certainly next season. I like Thybulle, a great defensive presence and I think he can still turn into a nice scorer; I love that deal and I think he's a keeper. Sharpe will take another step now that Dame is gone, Blazer fans are gearing up for the Scoot and Sharpe show, that is the future. 

Rest of roster

Anfernee Simons, Jabari Walker

Simons is in an awkward spot here; this isn't exactly his team (this is Scoot's team) and he's not really positioned to be the second banana (that would be Sharpe), nor is he the next toy in the toy box (that's Ayton). Simons is the fly in the buttermilk: if he's awful, it could get ugly and if he's great, how does that interrupt the Scoot-Sharpe-Ayton dichotomy? Curious to see how this plays out because I feel like Simons is gonna be gunnin' this year and if Scoot can incorporate him, the Blazers might actually be really good; but if Scoot clashes with Simons, he may be their next soap opera. (How Simons to Miami straight up for Tyler Herro? Yeah, it's a joke but....kinda makes sense....)

Next summer's free agents

(none)

Whew! No controversies here! 

Vegas over/under: 28.5 (I'm going Under)

I love youth movements and the Scoot-Sharpe-Ayton show looks like a good one. They'll struggle to get W's early on and they still have moves to make: does Brogdon fit in with this team or stick out like a sore thumb? Does Simons mesh with the new look or clash? What do they do with Grant? Too expensive to keep, too expensive to trade. But they've got a true core to build around and the future is here, all the rest is trade bait. They'll have some ups and downs but next summer they'll be looking at a lot of potential trades and another top 5 pick in hand.