2018-19 NBA Finals

The Raptors took advantage of yet another late collapse by the Bucks to earn their first trip to the NBA Finals. The Raptors were able to ride their experienced vets while the Bucks suddenly looked like a bunch of dudes that have never been this far before (*). The Bucks are a team built around Giannis and when he's got his game going, everyone else has a lot more room to maneuver, but what I didn't notice until the last coupla games: it isn't Giannis that gets it going, it's Middleton; Middleton gets Giannis going and then everyone else follows. And in those last three games Middleton checked out and the Bucks couldn't overcome his disappearance. So if they let Middleton go (I'm guessing they will, he's gonna want more than they're gonna wanna pay), what they need to look for is a pass-first ball-handler with an eye for what makes Giannis go (don't seem sexy, but how about Cory Joseph?). To that end, they must retain Brogdon first and foremost and groom him to replace Middleton's early-game confidence. And if they can keep Lopez on something like a bargain deal, I reckon he'll be back, too. But I'd be pretty surprised to see Middleton or Mirotic back in the fold next year (and if they can move on from Tony Snell, that would probably be a good idea). They don't have a lot of money to spend but they do have Giannis, Coach Bud and a suddenly hardened supporting cast. The Bucks announced themselves as a premiere regular season squad, I'd say they're still the favorite for #1 in the East.

I like the Raptors, I like their outside shooting, their rebounding, their defense, their fans are rabid, the coach seems like a gamer and the bench is still effective (Van Vleet!) even as the rotation tightens up. And if the Warriors are rolling in with a hobbled Kevin Durant and a probably unreliable Demarcus Cousins, they've got a real shot at pulling the upset. This is the weakest Warriors side since their first appearance back in the day. That said, the Warriors still have a lot of talent and know-how, can Kawhi be enough to rattle them? I think Lowry really needs to be a monster for the Raptors to win, if he plays flawless basketball that's gonna give the Warriors some serious problems. Gasol, Green and Ibaka need to be merely reliable, whatever they get out of Powell and Van Vleet is a bonus and I'm curious to see if they get anything out Patrick McCaw, but Lowry needs to be a scorer and a foul accumulator.

The Warriors have off-court turmoil (sorta) that threatens to interfere with their year's title run, even though we all know that Durant is gone and that they never needed Cousins to begin with (could be more of a liability than a help in this series). Seeing how they handle Durant's absence--and possible return--is really the fun part of this series. He clearly won't play in Game One, doesn't seem likely for Game Two either. How can he play Game Three? If it gets to Game Seven, that's different, that's all hands on deck time. But any time before that seems like either a desperate gamble by the team or an indefensible attention grab by Durant. And if Cousins piles up technicals or has an adverse outburst, how do they handle that? Cousins was always just a time-killing rental, never really a part of the team, what do they do if he costs them a game or throws off the feng shui? Draymond has been great this post-season, Curry has been Curry, Klay has been good (thought not great), and Iguodala has generally been very good. They've gotten good minutes out of Looney, McKinnie and Jerebko but Livingston has been unreliable and Bogut is just there for old time's sake. That main four is still pretty great, the rest of the cast knows what they're there to do and I don't think they need Durant or Cousins to win.

I like the Raptors to take Game One but it seems inconceivable that the Warriors come back home down 2-0, so I gotta take the Warriors in Game Two. Back home, I like the Warriors to get their groove back and be up 3-1 heading back to Toronto. I like the Raptors to take Game Five and the Warriors to finish the series off in Game Six. If that works out, then I suspect Curry wins MVP, unless Klay shoots the lights out and shuts down Lowry (though Draymond may well be the most deserving). Warriors in 6.


(*) Even though I thought the Raptors were the most likely team to come out of the East all year long, I went with the Bucks going into the Conference Finals. Looking back on it, it feels like I was actually overrating the Celtics and underrating the Sixers. The ease with which the Bucks demolished the Celtics seemed so much more impressive three weeks ago and the struggle the Raptors had with the Sixers seems much more impressive now. As weird as that Sixers roster is and as solid as the Celtics roster seemed, feels now like the Sixers are a lot closer to success than the Celtics (and possibly even the Bucks!). The Raptors need Kawhi back and the chances of that seem better with every W.