2021-22 NBA Playoffs (Conference Finals)

Warriors over Mavs in 5

Yeah, the Warriors went up 3-0, mailed in Game Four (just as they'd done in Game Five against the Grizzlies in the previous round) and then finished off the series back home. The Mavs were fine, had a good season but just didn't have enough offense to slow the Warriors down. The Mavs seem likely to lose Jalen Brunson, who was an important scorer for them all season, to free agency; I'm sure they'd love to keep him but he's gonna want mad scrill and the Mavs just don't have it. But they do have Tim Hardaway Jr., who missed the entire season to injury, so I kinda expect the Mavs to hit the ground running a little quicker next season and should be in the top 5 in the West next year without much alteration to their roster. The Mavs are good, they go as far as Luka takes them and should be a tough out in next year's playoffs. Do they have moves to make? I don't think so. They'd love to upgrade, they'd love to keep Brunson but they're up against the salary cap (as is most everyone this summer), so I think welcoming back Hardaway is all they've got on the table, which isn't bad. I don't think the Mavs will be better or worse next year, though getting to the conference finals will be a long haul for them, 

Celtic over Heat in 7

I had the Heat in 7 and I was 20 seconds away from being correct, but Jimmy Butler's 3-ball didn't drop and the Celtics escaped. Okay, I may be getting the details wrong but here's what I remember from Game Seven: there were three plays in a row (right?) that stopped the clock and took the air out of the game. Bam Adebayo was called for a foul on Derrick White that was overturned, then Kyle Lowry was called for a block on Jalen Brown that was overturned, then Lowry lost his balance and had to call a weird timeout. All three of those plays were right in a row, right? Anyway, with about 9-10 minutes left in the game, there were several weird breaks in the action and then suddenly the Heat couldn't hit the broadside of a barn. The Celtics pushed the lead back up to 13 and with about 2 minutes to go did that thing that teams do where they're so eager for the game to be over that they just kinda quit playing. Next thing you know, the lead is down to 2 points, Butler gets a steal and with about 20 seconds to go, rises up to take the 3 that would've given them the lead. He missed (*), Celtics get the rebound and escape--ESCAPE!--to the NBA Finals.

Look, the Celtics were the better team, though the Heat had moments. Game Seven was choppy on both sides, the Celtics played better in the 1st quarter, built a nice lead, but otherwise neither team played a complete game. 

The Heat have some moves to make: moving on from Kyle Lowry's big-ass contract is something I'm sure they will look into (who wants him?), they've clearly lost faith in Duncan Robinson (they desperately needed scoring and perimeter D in this series and they still didn't play him!), Victor Oladipo might be an interesting sign-and-trade candidate, they could re-up Tyler Herro, Gabe Vincent and/or Max Strus (or they could just ride out their current deals), and they'll probably need another scorer (assuming that isn't Oladipo, which I don't think it is). The Heat have a nice core for next season but finishing 1st in the East again doesn't seem likely. They seem like a trade deadline kinda team to me, we'll see.

Championship

Celtics - Warriors

Yeah, I know they b-ball intelligentsia is mixed on this one and I do think this can be interesting match up, but I think the Warriors are vastly better than the Celtics--and I kinda don't understand the people who think otherwise. I like Jaysun Tatum and Jalen Brown and Marcus Smart as much as the next guy, but they are not unstoppable super heroes by any means. They can get hot and ride the momentum and they can just as likely go cold and disappear. I like Robert Williams and Grant Williams, but they've never been here before. I like Al Horford (he was great in Game Seven, would not allow his team to lose!) but he's not enough of a scorer or defensive stopper to make the difference in this series. I like Coach Udoka, but he's never been here before. 

The Warriors are not the classic Warriors, they don't have Durant, I get that. But they're a pretty damn squad and, unlike all those Celtics players, they have been here before. Arguably the most unreliable player on this team is Kevon Looney, who I think is pretty good and is a vastly better player than he was in the 2018 championship (yeah, their crappiest player has played hurt in a championship before! The Celtics don't have anyone like that). The Celtics are vastly--VASTLY--overmatched in this series. Jordan Poole is ready to blow up--and he's not even their 6th man! 

I get that Klay Thompson hasn't been classic Klay much this season, I get that Steph Curry has been good-not-great this post-season, I get that Draymond Green just does not shoot the ball any more. But do you understand that they just won the West in a gentleman's sweep without their best defender, Gary Payton II, who will be back this series. They'll also be getting back Otto Porter, who is better than anything coming off Boston's bench and Andre Iguodala--way past his prime, you say, but still good enough to slow down Horford. Do you think Payton Pritchard will outplay Jonathon Kuminga and/or Moses Moody, because I don't. 

This argument that the Celtics have a tougher road to the championship than the Warriors is not one I agree with: the Celtics got the broken down Nets, the Bucks without Khris Middleton and the Heat, who have no offense beyond Jimmy Butler (and to whom they almost blew a 13-point lead in the final two minutes). Whereas, the Warriors comfortably gave away a game to the broken down Nuggets (you think the KD Nets are wildly better than the Jokic Nuggets? I don't), comfortably gave away a game to the Grizzlies (young but a legit #2 in the West this season) and comfortably gave away a game to the Mavs (perhaps ahead of schedule, but do you think Butler is a better scrorer than Luka right now? I don't). The Warriors have only lost 4 games so far--and 3 of them were giveaways! In the 13 games where the Warriors actually showed up and played, they are 12-1.  

When Jaysun Tatum gets hot, he a serious filler-upper--a Golden State-level filler-upper! But that's really all Boston has to counter the offensive onslaught that the Warriors are bringing. I believe the Warriors can beat the Celtics with Draymond, Looney, half-hearted Steph and full throttle Poole, whereas the Celtics need super human performances from Tatum and Brown and even then they would still need Smart to be perfect and Horford to be better than he's ever been. I love ya, Celtic fans, but I have no idea where your confidence is coming from. (**)

I'll take the Warriors to be 3-0 after Game Three, give away Game Four, then wrap it up in five, just like they've been doing all through the playoffs. Warriors in 5. (Though just to create some drama, I'll say Draymond wins MVP (***))

(*) FWIW, I was totally cool with Butler taking that shot and upon refecltion, I'm still cool with it. That team was going wherever Butler dragged them and if he thought he had the shot, I have no hesitation with him taking it. That said, I also would've been cool with him driving to the basket and getting a bucket to tie the game or going for the hoop-and-harm style 3 (which would've brought down the friggin' house!). This was Butler's team, he was always the guy that was gonna take the shot, I have no problem whatsoever with the shot he took. If it had gone in (I thought it was in), we'd been holding Butler up as a hero (and we'd be lamenting the fact that the Heat have no shot against the Warriors....why do we think the Celtics are beating the Warriors?)

(**) Andrew Wiggins. Didn't even mention him, but he'll be marking Tatum this series. I expect Tatum to outplay Wiggins, I don't expect the rest of the Celtics to outplay the rest of the Warriors. Not even close. 

(***) One last thought experiment to illustrate the difference btw the Warriors and the Celtics. If Jordan Poole turned out to be the best player in this series, I would not be shocked; if Poole turned out to be the 10th best player and the Warriors won anyway, I would not be shocked. The Celtics have nothing on their side that even comes remotely close to that. If Marcus Smart turned out to be the best player in this series, I would be shocked--and I still wouldn't expect the Celtics to win!; if Smart is the 10th best player, there is no way in hell the Celtics could possibly come close to winning. Do you see what I'm saying? The Celtics need Tatum and Brown and Smart to be perfect--and that alone won't be enough! The Warriors have any number of permutations of their lineup that could still win the championship. I just don't see how the Celtics are even close in this series. We'll see.