2020-21 NBA Finals

Bucks in 6

Giannis was a monster, but more of a slow moving endurance monster tonight. Bucks got out to a quick lead then went ice cold in the 2nd and the Suns were up at halftime. The Suns weren't even playing particularly well in the 2nd, the Bucks just sucked at attacking the basket for many, many possessions. (They reminded me of Game Four of Suns at Clippers: both teams went through a long stretch of where they just could not score, neither team could finish at all, it was weird, it was like the back alley fight scene from They Live) In the 3rd the Bucks grabbed the lead back but couldn't hold it and it was tied going into the 4th. Suns tied it at 82, Bucks outscored them 23-16 from then on. The Bucks attack was just more reliable, the Suns struggled to get good shots, Giannis was 17-19 from the line (*), the Suns had no answer for any of it. 

Giannis (50pts, 16-25FG, 17-19 FTs, 14 boards, but with 2:6 a:t, uncharacteristic stat line in this Final for Giannis) was awesome again. Though even he was harried, he didn't exactly glide to his 50 tonight, he grinded through it better than anyone else could keep up with. Holiday was back to be good on D/bad on attack (**), Middleton was fine but not really reliable as a scorer, Lopez was good, Portis had moments (good and bad), Connaughton was making plays but just a wild card, Tucker did Tucker stuff. Not the most dialed-in performance but Giannis is Giannis and the world of low hanging fruit looks different to that guy. 

The Suns just ran out of gas. Paul was brilliant for two games (1,2), okay for two (3,6) and was pretty bad in two (4, 5); if he'd been brilliant for 5 games, I think the Suns could've won, but he just does not have that in him. (***). Booker was great for the most part but also had a coupla clunker games (3,6), as well; I think Booker is a big time scorer and he is their carrier for the next few years, they need another one but they've got one. I was blown away by Ayton, I think he was transformed by CP (so I'm sure Ayton is rooting for CP to return), but I was impressed enough to think he's ready to step forward (with/without CP). I was impressed with Mykal Bridges and Cam Johnson throughout the post-season, those guys make a killer tandem, they're not Tatum and Brown, but they are fine 2-way cornerstone rotation guys. Cam Payne had some nice moments (meh, ups and downs), announced himself as potential 3rd PG for a playoff team (that's not bad actually). Jae Crowder still has miles in him, he still plays pretty good defense and he's even occasionally good for a big game knocking down 3's, too. Dario Saric is probably gonna be out all next year, right? I wasn't much of a fan of Frank Kaminsky, so determined to not make mistakes that he looked like he had his eyes closed most of the time, though he did give them pretty good minutes in a choppy Game Six. 

The Bucks were the better team, Giannis the bigger better star, Bucks in 6 is the correct outcome. I originally said the Suns in 7, I thought this was a series where the home team takes every game. But after Game Four, the way the Bucks just casually snatched the game away from Paul/Booker at the end, suggested to me that CP was done and the Bucks now completely understood that they were the better team at both ends. The way the Bucks just suffocated the Suns in Game Five was the R-rated scene in this otherwise family friendly summer entertainment. Game Six was the opposite: in Game Five the Suns were good at everything and didn't come close to victory, whereas in Game Six they kinda sucked at everything but had chances to win in the 4th. The Sun had a great season, made a memorable run and were a fun team to watch while it lasted. But Game Five was the night Jrue Holiday showed up and wrecked shop, Game Six where Giannis just outlasted the field (dominated by default).

All right, so draft next week, then Summer League in August, get these Olympics (****) outta the way and then....right?  The sports schedule is back to normal, no?  NBA and NHL are back to normal pre-season, the World Series and MLS Championship gets off like clockwork, football is always just football, and then college basketball is back on track and the world of sports is back to reality....right? 

(*) I know he missed his last FT, I believe his first one, too. If I'm not mistaken, he hit 17 straight throughout the meat of the game. Pretty good for a guy that sucks at FT's. Hey, man, Tim Duncan was a surprisingly bad FT% guy that became much more reliable in the playoffs, extra points, man, every extra point matters in the playoffs. 

(**) In all six games Holiday was great on defense, he was A+ on D, he was fucking great, he was like Meryl Streep on defense. Offensively he was great in Game Five (man of the match, IMHO), but otherwise he was pretty terrible on offense. He would attack the basket, get there, then put up a lame shot, it's like he was doing 95% of the work but giving up on that last 5% and just getting horrible shots. In Game Five, he knocked down jumpers, then was able to confidently mix up his attack, but that was the only game where that worked. He knocked down 3's okay but his midrange stuff was not good and actually kinda awful. But defensively he was amazing and he had to be out there 45 minutes a night. 

(***) Okay, I'm gonna do this. I really do admire Chris Paul but I'm here to bury him. This was the best possible chance of him winning a championship and it didn't happen. No Ad, no Jamal Murray, no Kawhi, don't have to play the Jazz or the Nets, up 2-0 in the Final, dude, I'm not saying it was on a platter, but hard to imagine a better platter in CP's future. I don't mean to denigrate this run, this is way better than I ever thought Chris Paul could do--he proved me wrong but getting as far as he did. But he's also shown that even under cosmically granted circumstances, it just isn't gonna happen. If the Suns didn't win it this year with CP, I don't see that running it back makes them better next year. 

(****) Never much cared for the Olympics. As I get older I wish they'd just go away. 

2020-21 NBA Finals (after 5 games)

Game Two: Bucks 108-118 Suns

Giannis was amazing (15-22/42 pts, 12 boards), the rest of the Bucks were awful (Middleton + Holiday go 12-37 for 28 pts, yeech). Holiday was getting to the basket but not finishing, Middleton never got going at all, Lopez was all out of whack, Teague and Portis gave mostly empty minutes, Tucker did Tucker stuff. All Giannis and nothing but Giannis and that actually kept them in this game (Jrue has been great on defense all the way through, but his offense has been spotty to say the least). 

CP was amazing, Ayton was amazing, Booker was good, Crowder pitched in, Bridges was money (8-15/27pts, dang!), I kinda love Cam Johnson he's been great at all times, the Suns had a great flow to them, the team defense was workable and the rebounding was good. At home the Suns can roll points quickly and keep a lead and though it was never a blowout, the Suns controlled the game pretty well from beginning to end. 

Game Three: Suns 100-120 Bucks

Giannis goes off again (41pts, 13 boards; 6:1 ast:to, just a fucking brilliant game and he dominated Lebron-like all the way through. Giannis has gone up a level, we wondered if he could, the answer is 'yes'. We're watching it, he's blossoming, I hope he wins, frankly I'd rather see Giannis as an eternal all time badass rather than affirm that Chris Paul was everyone's secret favorite player. 

The rest of the Bucks are better, they have a killer run before halftime, Suns almost make close again in the 3rd (Bucks 74-70, 5 minutes to go in the 3rd; Bucks 46-30 from then on), Bucks cruise through the 4th to bring the series back to 2-1. 

CP was not great. Booker was literally on the bench for most of the 2nd half, never understood why...? Ayton got in foul trouble early and they found themselves stuck with more Frank Kaminsky than is good for winning basketball, Bridges struggled, Cam Payne looked out of it, Cam Johnson was good but not enough. The Suns just never got any rhythm, had a little push in the 3rd but they couldn't stay hot enough to get back into it. 

Middleton got legit hot for stretches, Jrue's defense was still great though his offense was not so much, Lopez makes sense again, Tucker does Tucker stuff, Connaughton cemented his place in the rotation, Teague gave reliable minutes. All around great performance by the Bucks, good teamwork, good individual play, the game was over fairly quick. The home team has won every game and the Bucks look firmly in control. 

Game Four: Suns 103-109 Bucks

The Suns held a nice lead through most of the game but all along it felt like it was just one well-timed Bucks run to flip the game and, yeah, Bucks grab the lead back at 97-95 with 3:08 left in the game. Bucks outscored them 12-8 from there. Easy as you please, I was waiting for the Shymalan twist at the end and there it was like clockwork.  

Giannis was mellow but still a positive performance, Middleton went off, Jrue's defense is still great and his offense not so much, Connaughton is now clearly the guy, Portis looks good enough to get minutes, Teague again is reliable (if not a true plus player), Tucker does Tucker stuff. My dumb hot take: Brook Lopez has been great and the criticism of him is reading it all wrong; the problem with Lopez coming high to guard CP isn't that he can't guard CP, he's been fine, Lopez gets really wide. he can't stop CP's jumper but he pushes him away from the basket just fine; it's that pulling Lopez on to CP leaves Ayton being marked by Holiday or Teague or Tucker and that's useless, CP's gonna beat that every time. The criticism is misplacing the inefficiency with Lopez on CP rather than Lopez not on Ayton, Lopez is the Bucks best choice against Ayton, not against Paul. Seems to me in Three and Four they seemed to have solved that (though in the 1st half of Five it seems like Lopez is trying to lure Paul toward the basket to cut off Ayton's path; feels like CP is gonna drain a million 15 footers tonight)

CP was not good (felt like he worked hard for his 10points, 7,asts, 5 turnover), did not have his usual command of the game, made a coupla bad turnovers down the stretch, a most uncharacteristic CP game. Booker was phenomenal (42pts on 17-28), clearly he was the work horse tonight, despite foul trouble, despite a phantom no-call that kept him from fouling out, then another, then another, the refs refused to let Booker leave! Ayton was a monster on the boards and effective at rim defense, but didn't get into the offensive flow (the difference betw CP and Cam Payne), Crowder and Johnson had moments but not enough. Payne was 50/50, Bridges wasn't effective tonight. 

Asst:to. Bucks 22/5; Suns 18/17; a Chris Paul squad with 17 turnovers?

I felt coming into this series that the home team would win every game, its just a time honored NBA truism that big stars get the calls at home and role players play better at home, this felt like one of those matchups, felt like the refs would play along (and I think they have). 

But after the Bucks finish here in Game Four, I think the winner of Game Five can win Game Six. The Bucks can win in Phoenix and then finish it back home in Game Six or they can shoot their wad in Phoenix while the Suns savvy vet the championship right out from under them back in Milwaukee. But I think the Bucks are better situated to make that happen. I think the Bucks are the better team.

Game Five: Bucks 123-119 Suns 

The Suns surged right away to a 32-16 lead early in the 2nd; Bucks countered with a 26-10 run to tie the game at 42. It was the Bucks' game pretty much from then on. Bucks were kinda pounding the Suns for most of the 2nd half, Suns cut it close late in the 4th, but couldn't grab the lead, even though the Bucks were missing FT's late. Holiday was great, Middleton was great, Giannis was just kinda B+ Giannis tonight but that was plenty. This is the kind of balanced attack that Marty Schottenheimer preached of. 

CP was not getting the calls in the 1st half, felt like he was playing for contact and the refs weren't buying it (surprised to see CP still not getting the calls in the 4th). Booker was good (40pts on 17-33, still the work horse but he wasn't quite as reliable as last time) but he just couldn't get past the Bucks' big 3. Crowder was money (he's the third Morris twin: if he's hot in 1st he's gonna be good tonight; if he's cold in the 1st, he better be getting some rebounds), Johnson, Bridges, Ayton were fine, Cam Payne was kinda 50/50 (some nice, some not so nice), no one played badly and no one reflects ill in the box score. When a good team plays well and still loses handily, that's a bad sign. 

Holiday announced early that he would be making his shots tonight and he did (27pts on 12-20 and 13 assts and he brought the defense the whole night); Holiday was a monster tonight, I thought he was the man of the match. Middleton was great, too, (29pts on 12-23), knocked down tough shots, bodied hard with Booker when need be, an all round confident reliable filler upper performance. Giannis was cool (a very easygoing 32pts/9boards/6:0 asst:to; casually brilliant tonight), he's taken the next step: he can exert force without dominating the possession, distorting the defensive rotations or interrupting anyone else's rhythm. He is effortlessly useful and never detracts from anyone (that's his super power: Giannis is still Giannis no matter who his teammates are, the better they are the further he'll carry them).  

Asst:to. Bucks 23:8; Suns 26:11. Suns did not get blown out on this tonight, in fact I recall so many bad Bucks giveaways in this game that I'm kinda shocked they only had 8 turnovers. Stocks: Bucks had 8, Suns had 14. Team rebounds: Bucks 37, Suns 35. Suns shot 13-19 from 3pt, 10-11 from FT line. The Suns didn't do anything badly in this game, the stats are pretty even, but they were never in this game in the 2nd half (even as they chipped away at the lead, I never thought they were gonna pull off the comeback the way the Bucks did in Game Four). 

The Suns, man, I think they've peaked. You look at this box score and nobody had a bad game, everyone contributed and it wasn't enough. I think CP had two good games in him, perhaps one more but that's not enough now. I think Booker has three good games in him, but going for 40 tonight didn't get the W. Ayton pitched in a very comfortable 20/10 but it didn't get them a single lead in the 4th quarter. Johnson and Bridges and Crowder were fine, even Cam Payne has a nice looking box score. The Suns playing well did not win the game at home (did not get the calls at home), that's not good.  

The Bucks have announced themselves as the better team. They did that at the beginning of Game Three, the end of Game Four, and in Game Five it was snatching the lead before halftime when it felt like it might be a Suns blowout. 

I initially had Suns in 7, gotta flip that to Bucks in 6. I think this is it.

2021 NBA Finals (after 1 game)

The Bucks finished off the Hawks after Trae Young was hobbled by an ankle injury (thought he moved well and made plays in Game Six but he couldn't score at his usual level and that was the end of that).  The Suns finished off the Clippers after it became clear that Kawhi Leonard was not coming back (Paul George was masterful, but missed FTs in Game Two and a weird scoring drought in Game Four was the end of the Clippers). 

I gotta say I was skeptical of the off-season moves these two teams made last summer. The Suns picking up Chris Paul just felt like CP's next move, not something the Suns were doing to make a big difference. The Bucks paid a massive amount to bring in Jrue Holiday, a guy that I always thought was a nice but probably overrated because of his injury history; my thought at the time was why not pay half as much for Denis Shroder to perform the same job? Well, clearly I was wrong about Paul, he is without a doubt the reason the Suns are here; and Holiday goes a long way to making the Bucks a deeper, more reliable squad. So, belatedly I gotta say: these were the two best moves of last summer, right?

In Game One, Giannis played despite fears that he'd be out (*) but he looked strong, if not terribly decisive. What jumped out at me early on was the way the Bucks were switching Brook Lopez; the danger there was not how he marks Chris Paul and/or Devin Booker, but that switching him high takes him away from Deandre Ayton and that's not gonna work. You can't have Jrue Holiday or PJ Tucker marking Ayton down low, that has to be Lopez. So I'd be surprised to see the Bucks doing that high switch going forward. I think they'll slip into a zone-type D with Tucker chasing Booker and Holiday marking Paul. We'll see. 

Paul was magnificent in the 3rd quarter of Game One and that was the difference in the game. Also, the way he kept finding Ayton rotating to the basket just piled on the lead. Man, I've been so blown away by Ayton this post-season, he's been phenomenal and gives the Suns a whole new dynamic that they didn't have all year long. I thought Cam Johnson was great, too. Booker was fine, the fact that he didn't have to take over is where the Suns are at their best (when Booker goes for a quiet 25, that's when the Suns destroy people). Crowder wasn't great but defensively he put in good work and he's still a necessary part of this squad. Mikeal Bridges played hard and is a good looking rotation guy. Dario Saric got hurt which isn't a killer except that it suggests they'll be needing more minutes of Frank Kaminsky, which is not a good thing. The Suns are in a good rhythm, they know who they are and I think they're a good bet to win 3 of the next 6 games. 

The Bucks started off okay but lost their way early in the 3rd quarter and it highlighted exactly what their problem is: their offense bogs down from time to time and they lose their flow. The makeup of their Big 3 is awkward: Giannis seems like "the guy" but he's such a unique attacker that its hard to build around him, Middleton is a filler-upper but not enough of a playmaker and Holiday is too spotty a shooter to be a CP-type ball control guy. Don't get wrong, there's loads of talent there and they can still win the Championship. But when they start spinning their wheels, there's no clear way to get back on track. Indeed, cranking up their defensive intensity is probably their best way to get offense and that might be their be strategy. 

The Suns are probably the better team but they're definitely the more cohesive team. The Bucks need  to find their defensive identity (Lopez needs to mark Ayton, Holiday needs to clamp down Paul, otherwise a zone-ish defense would give them a rebounding edge) and they need to make FTs. Can they do it? Ehh, I still think they push the Suns to seven games but you gotta like CP and Booker locking it down at home. 

My pick was Suns in 7 and after watching Game One, I'll stick with that. 

(*) Look, that hyper extended knee moment Giannis had in Game Four against the Hawks looked awful but there's two ways to look at: 1) on the one hand, what you saw lasted a half a second, not that big a deal; 2) on the other hand, Giannis is a 7' 300 pound man and perhaps it only takes a half a second to end his career. I was never worried, that kinda stuff happens all the time, it feels weird--and it could be dangerous--but generally it's not a thing and bad ass athletes just move on. 

2021-22 Pointless NBA Rebuild Idea

Yeah, couldn't help myself...here's the case for the rebuild no one saw coming: 

Nets get Karl-Anthony Towns, Jake Layman; Wolves get Pascal Siakam, Raptors 1st rd pick (#4); Raptors get Kyrie Irving

Nets get Chris Paul (sign & trade); Suns get James Harden

Nets get #7 pick, #14 pick, James Wiseman, Warriors 2023 1st rd pick, Warriors 2027 1st rd pick; Warriors get Kevin Durant

The Nets would shed their high profile talent and end up with: Chris Paul (fresh 3yr deal, I'd say something in the 3yr/$150m range(*)), Karl-Anthony Towns (3yr/$100m left on his contract), James Wiseman (still on rookie contract), #7 (I'd take Davion Mitchell (Baylor)), #14 (I'd aim for Josh Giddey (Australia)) and they'd still have Joe Harris (3yr), Deandre Jordan (2yr), Landry Shamet (expiring), Nicholas Claxton and Alize Johnson.  (Jake Layman gets bought out instantly) And I'd bring back Luwawu and Bruce Brown and--why the hell not?--Blake Griffin. And then they should go get JJ Reddick (run back the Clip show in NYC). They go from a veteran squad (full of grumpy show-offs) to a young squad (led by CP and KAT) over night but it would be much more stable and fun and they'd be building some real basketball culture instead of just being a bunch of media whores. And what's the point of indulging the Kyrie and Harden circus if they're not gonna show up in the playoffs? (**) 

Does this make the Nets more likely to win the 2021-22 championship? Well, I don't suppose it does--though if CP wins this year maybe you can talk yourself into it. But it does make them a more consistent and viable franchise going forward. Will they make any of these moves? Oh, good lord, of course not! They've got three huge stars, which is what we have told ourselves all teams need to win the Championship (of course, they....didn't win the....championship...but you know what I mean). For the Nets, these moves are designed to bolster the franchise for years to come rather than leaving it the hostage of self-absorbed media whores. But, then again, it is NYC--and the 2nd place team in NYC, at that!--all they know is media whores and making themselves available to that probably looks pretty good to the Nets. 

Would the Wolves be better off with Siakam and #4 instead of Towns? Well...no. But how about also sending D'angelo Russell (***) to the Pacers for Myles Turner and TJ Warren (Russell made an Eastern All-Star squad and he's a Big-10 guy from Louisville, is that enough cache for Indiana?). And how about shopping #4 to OKC for #6 and a future pick (of which OKC has a fistful); Jalen Suggs (Gonzaga) probably isn't the right fit with Edwards, they may well be better off moving back in the draft and trying to find more assets. Look, this is Edwards' team now and if they can move D'angelo Russell for anything, then at least they'd be fun to watch (and they wouldn't take the blame for Towns' lack of success any more). 

Would the Raptors swap Siakam and #4 for Kyrie Irving? My guess is fuck yeah they would! In a heartbeat! He's not Kawhi but the Raptor supporting cast is still really good and we all still believe in Coach Nurse (right?), I think the Raptors go as far as Kyrie's health carries them. Also, this pushes Van Vleet back into super-sub guy again, which is probably a more realistic fit (he'd be odds on for 6th Man, no?). 

Would the Suns trade CP for Harden? I bet they wouldn't want to but CP has a player option this summer, which I assume he'll decline, and if he'd rather be shipped to NYC then re-up in Phoenix than getting James Harden (Arizona State product) is certainly not a bad deal. Do Harden and Booker fit together? Sure, why not? 

The Warriors would be reunited with Durant, which would be massively expensive in the short term and kinda kills their rebuilding going forward. But unlike Brooklyn, Golden State has had massive success with their veteran lineup and if it costs a gajillion dollars and murders their future prospects, well....what do I care? (I feel like I speak for all Warrior fans when I ask that question)

Yeah, no way any of these moves happen, but wouldn't it be a fascinating curveball if the Nets suddenly went into a garage sale mode? They could if they wanted to.

(*) If I'm Chris Paul (or any aging but still solid badass) I would insist on a declining contract. Pay me big up front and I'll take less on the back side. So CP has a player option for $44.2m this summer in Phoenix. I assume he will opt out with the intention of going for more years. He'll probably want something like $150m over 3 years. In order to stay in Phoenix, he can't decline an option and then sign with the same team for less money and he wouldn't with a new team either, so he'll have to make north of $44.2m next year. Rather than go to $45, $50, $55, say, to hit $150, I think a $55, $55, $40 would be better. If in three years CP is no longer any good, then just give him his paycheck and let him move on because your team's gonna suck anyway. But if he can still play and your team sucks, they he has a better chance of getting to a better team. The declining contract promotes player movement, which isn't for everybody, but for a badass like Chris Paul, the playoffs are where you get the attention, the opportunity and the big big money. CP needn't give his heart to the team, he should give his heart to go deep in the playoffs e'ry year, no matter what team it ends up being with. 

(**) Is anyone in NYC impressed that Kyrie, Harden and Durant lasted a whole extra round longer than Julius Randle and the fightin' Thibodeaus? I doubt it. I'm not and I'm not even from NYC.

(***) How on fuckin' earth is Russell making $30m this season? How...how....does that happen? That dude has never done anything in the NBA and he's mostly been injured....how does he get a $30m deal?

2019-20 NBA Pre-season (Pacific Division)

Clippers
Out:
Angel Delgado, Garrett Temple, Wilson Chandler, Sindarius Thornwell, Tyrone Wallace, Danilo Gallinari, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, 2020 1st rd pick (top 14 protected), 2021 1st rd pick, 2022 1st rd Pick, 2024 1st rd pick, 2026 1st rd pick, (OKC holds 1st rd pick swaps in 2023, 2025),
With SGA and several 1st rd picks out the door, now is the time for the Clippers. There are a lot of nice players there but the new look will absorb these losses without much problem.

Re-signed:
Lou Williams (guaranteed contract through 2021), Ivica Zubac (4yr/$21m), Rodney McGruder (3yr/$15m), Patrick Beverley (3yr/$40m), JaMychel Green (2yr/$9.8m)
A lot of money (and draft picks) out but these are all good players who seem well suited for each other.

In:
Kawhi Leonard (3yr/$103m),  Moe Harkless (trade; 1yr), Mfiondu Kabengele (2yr/$4m), Paul George (3yr/$105m), Patrick Patterson (1yr/$2.3m), Amir Coffey, Terance Mann (4yr/$6.2m), Derrick Walton Jr., Johnathon Motley, Heat 2023 1st rd pick (top 14 protected), rights to Mathias Lessort
Okay...future is here. I like all these moves, I think they'll fit together, too (eventually).


Over/Under (53.5): I'm going under
Yeah, there's a lot of talent in and it seems to mesh. But George is already hurt and you know Kawhi's minutes will be monitored so the anchors of the rotation will appear and disappear throughout the season. Yes, I have the Clippers winning it all but I have them going into the playoffs as the 6th seed. I just don't think the regular season (especially road games and back-to-backs) will be that motivating to them. This team was built for the post-season, slogging through the next six months to get there might bore them.


Lakers
Out:
Lance Stephenson, Mike Muscala, Reggie Bullock, Tyson Chandler, Johnathon Williams,  Lonzo Ball, Josh Hart, Brandon Ingram, Isaac Bonga, Jemerrio Jones, Moritz Wagner, 2022 1st rd pick (unprotected), 2022 2nd rd pick, 1st rd pick swap to the Pelicans,
Well, the celebrated youth movement (Ball, Ingram, Hart, Wagner, Bonga) and a boatload of future draft picks have been swapped out for a veteran squad that has more top level talent, though fewer dirty work players. This is the Laker way, it was only a matter of time before they made this choice.

Re-signed:
JaVale McGee (2yr/$8.2m), Kentavius Caldwell-Pope (2yr/$16.6m), Alex Caruso (2yr/%5.5m), Rajon Rondo (2yr/$5.2m), Kyle Kuzma (team picked up option; 2yr)
Obviously Kuzma is a keeper (and since Ball, Ingram, Hart, Clarkson, Randle, Bonga, Wagner and Nance are gone, the only youngun they still have). But the rest? McGee has his moments but you gotta expect fewer and fewer of those. KCP and Rondo are reliable-ish vets and Caruso (the White Mamba!) seems like a real nice guy. Meh.

In:
Danny Green (2yr/$30m), DeMarcus Cousins (1yr/$3.5m), Quinn Cook (2yr/$6m), Jared Dudley (1yr/$2.6m), Troy Daniels (1yr/$2m), Avery Bradley (2yr/$9.8m), Dwight Howard (1yr/$2.6m), Reggie Hearn,
Green is now in charge of taking the blame for everything Lebron wants to deflect (he better study up on Chinese economics, I reckon!). Cousins is already out for the year (another year, another bad injury for Boogie). Dudley has long been overrated, Bradley is on the downside (but could be a useful perimeter defender), and Cook will know his role. Dwight Howard is the intriguing signing here: if he really is ready to play ball then I can see him having a nice year (but wildly better than what Tyson Chandler did last year? Ehh, maybe).

2nd rd draftees, 2-way contracts, Exhibition 10
Devontae Cook (1yr), Talen Horton-Tucker (2yr/$2.4m), Kostas Antetokounpo,
If these guys do anything, it'll be a bonus.

Over/Under (50.5): I got the under (but just barely)
I'm going under because I think wherever Lebron goes he brings highs and lows: I fully expect the Lakers to have a few runs where they look unstoppable and other stretches where they look like they'd get bounced in the NCAA tournament--that's just how Lebron teams roll. I think Lebron watches his minutes and throughout the season is selective about his effort. So even though I think Anthony Davis has an MVP season, the talent around him will come and go (better than the Pelicans but not vastly better) with an eye toward the post-season rather than the regular season. I've got them winning 50 games and finishing 5th in the West and while they could be way better than that, I just think they looking to the post-season will be their focus and 50 wins will suit them just fine.



Warriors
Out:
Kevin Durant, Marcus Derrickson, Andrew Bogut, DeMarcus Cousins, Jonas Jerebko, Quinn Cook, Andre Iguodala, Damian Jones, Shaun Livingston, Jordan Bell, Alfonzo McKinnie, 1st rd pick (top 4 protected), 2020 1st rd picks (top 20 protected), 2024 2nd rd pick, 2026 2nd rd pick, 2021 2nd rd pick, 2023 2nd rd pick, rights to Miye Oni
Wow! That is the core of many championships that just walked out the door. Durant is a Hall of Famer, Cousins is an all-time badass (though beset by injuries), Iguodala is maybe the most underappreciated player of all time, Livingston was a regular 6th man candidate for many years (though he was washed last season), Bogut was the original star in this champioship run (although not a big loss at this point), Cook and Jones and McKinney and Bell were the young core that was gonna grow with the team and even Jerebko had moments where he gave a real spark off the bench. And, oh by the way, Klay Thompson is out for the season. Yipes! That is an amazing amount of talent to lose in one summer--and they've given up a handful of 1st rd picks, too! Jeez, not since the old Florida Marlins back in the 1990s have we seen a team that just seemed to drain out so much skill.


Re-signed:
Klay Thompson (5yr/$189.9m), Kevon Looney (3yr/$15m), Draymond Green (4yr/$99.7m),
Re-signing Klay is a bit bittersweet considering that he'll be out for the year, but it needed to be done, so good deal nonetheless. Looney really became a part of their offense last season and gutted out a gnarly injury through the playoffs, good move to reward him. Signing Draymond now solidifies the Warrior core for the foreseeable future (and makes that light summer 2020 free agent class even lighter), big money that must kinda hurt going into what can only be a down year, but the right move.


In:
Jordan Poole (2yr/$4m), D'Angelo Russell (trade), Alen Smailagic (4yr/$61.m), Eric Paschell (3yr/$4.2m), Omari Spellman (trade), Willie Cauley-Stein (1yr/$2.5m), Glenn Robinson (2yr/$19.m), Alec Burks (1yr/$2.3m), Marquese Chriss (1yr), (rights to Lior Eliyahu), Ky Bowman, Damion Lee
The way last season ended for them (the end of the dynasty) there was pretty much no way that this off-season could be anything other than heartbreaking. Okay, starting at the level of low expectations, I think they did pretty good here. Plucking D'angelo Russell away from the Nets was a good move that preserves some offense (I think he'll be just fine for the Warriors, he'll score and make plays), getting Cauley-Stein and Spellman (two new toys for Draymond to play with) will give them a better ability to transition than the haters will acknowledge, Poole and Paschall were good draft picks and apparently they adore Smailagic and then Burks will give them a little offensive depth off the bench. Obviously this isn't the 5-straight Western Conference champs but considering what they lost, they still have plenty of talent left.

Over/Under (47.5): I'm going under (but just barely)
That o/u seems a little high to me--but only because I would assume betters would be more pessimistic. I've got them winning 46 games and going into the playoffs as the 7th seed, which would be a pretty great season for them with plenty more to look forward to in 2020-21.


Kings
Out:
Frank Mason, Alec Burks, Corey Brewer, Kosta Koufos, Troy Williams, Willie Cauley-Stein, BJ Johnson, Vanja Marinkovic
I'm a big Willie Cauley fan (re: apologist) and I think his absence is going to make more of a difference than the haters realize: I think his transition game created a lot of open shots for Hield, open lanes for Fox and chances to gamble on defense for everyone; I get that WCS is not a stat sheet filler-upper but at all the little things you don't notice, I think he was great and transitioning forward without him may be with them all season long. Otherwise, I'm cool with losing all these guys: Mason was nice but I thought a tad overrated, Burks and Brewer really didn't fit their needs, Koufos was nice but replaceable and Williams, Johnson and Marikovic are fungible commodities.

Re-signed:
Harrison Barnes (4yr/$85m)
I'm cool with this. I thought the trade for Barnes last season was the perfect move for them and, okay, the money is a little high but he's the guy they want, so why not pay him? Barnes is not merely the adult in the room, he's the right adult for them: solid pro, handles his business, performs his role on both ends and doesn't try to do too much, exactly the security blanket this youth movement needs.

In:
Cory Joseph (3yr/$37m), Trevor Ariza (2yr/$25m), Dwayne Dedmon (3yr/$40m), Richaun Holmes (2yr/$9.8m), Tyler Lydon (2yr)
Joseph is a reliable 2nd string PG, Ariza brings veteran smarts and big play ability, Dedmon will contribute down low and fits well with Bagley, and Holmes is great big man off the bench. (Hmmm...not sure what Tyler Lydon offers, but it's a non-guaranteed deal). If the youngsters all take a step forward then these vets will have room to make good contributions and this could be the shocker team of the season.

2nd rd draftees, 2-way contracts, Exhibition 10:
Kyle Guy, Justin James (3yr/$4.2m), Tyler Ulis, Hollis Thompson,
I think Ulis is kinda perfect off the bench for the Nuggets, not sure what he brings to any other team, unfortunately.

Over/Under (37.5): I'm going over
The ceiling of this team is amazingly high: if the youngsters each get a little better and each of those vets does what they're supposed to do, this team really could be awesome. I'm guessing it'll be a tougher road than that as they are in the tougher conference and arguably the toughest division. And, again, I know this sounds crazy but they're gonna miss Willie Cauley-Stein more than they realize. And what to do with Bogdan Bogdanovic might become a problem, too: in the final year of his deal they have to decide by January whether he's in their future or trade bait. Outside of that, I don't see any moves to make, so if it starts wobbly...well, it'll stay wobbly. I think they'll be good and in the contention for the 8th seed but I think they falter down the stretch. (That said, this team has perhaps the best potential to overachieve than any other team in the league)



Suns
Out:
Jimmer Fredette, Ray Spalding, George King, Dragan Bender, Jamal Crawford, Richaun Holmes, Troy Daniels, TJ Warren, Josh Jackson, DeAnthony Melton, 2020 1st rd pick (top 7 protected),
I still don't understand the draft day TJ Warren trade (uh, giveaway), guess they thought they needed the roster space; but I always found him to be an under appreciated scoring SF and won't be as easy to replace as the Suns suppose. I'm okay with giving up on Dragan Bender (I never could figure out his game: what does he do?) but I'm a little surprised they were so quick to cut bait on Josh Jackson (who didn't get his extension picked up by the Grizzlies either) or DeAnthony Melton (dude had some good moments, could've been good in a Suns uni). I forgot they even had Jamal Crawford and they had no real use for Holmes, I guess. The other (Fredette, Spalding, King, Daniels) are easy come/easy go guys.

Re-signed:
Tyler Johnson (exercised player option for 1yr/$19m), Kelly Oubre (2yr/$30m), Deandre Ayton (team exercised option; 2yr), Mikal Bridges (team exercised option; 2yr),
Johnson is perfectly reasonable 2nd string PG (although $19m is a steep price tag for that role). Rolling with Ayton, Oubre and Bridges is where the Suns are for the next 3-5 years and I think after years of poor drafts (like recently cast off Bender and Jackson), they've finally found a young core they can build around. I don't expect a lot of W's this season but the future looks better than it has in years.

In:
Jalen Lecque (4yr/$6.1m), Aron Baynes,Ty Jerome (2yr/$4.5m), Dario Saric, Cameron Johnson (2yr/$8.3m), Jevon Carter, Ricky Rubio (3yr/$51m), Frank Kaminsky (2yr/$9.8m), Cheick Diallo (2yr/$1.7m), Jared Harper
I'm a big Ricky Rubio fan and I think the scoring potential of this team will match his efforts, but defensively he doesn't bring much and no one else does either (re: they're gonna lose a lot of 124-116 kinda games). I'm also a big Dario Saric fan but I kinda think he's likely to be frustrated by losing and could turn inward (I already do not expect him to be back in Phoenix next year). I like Baynes, he'll bring some toughness and veteran smarts that this team needs; but he won't bring enough production to really make a difference. Cam Johnson and Ty Jerome are either part of their upswing in drafting or a return to the years of busts (I'm not optimistic about either of these guys, unfortunately). Kaminsky needs a second chance but I don't see what he brings to the Suns (or vice versa), this is one of the most puzzling signings of the summer. Diallo, too, is still young enough to turn into something and unlike Kaminsky, I think Phoenix could be a good spot for him to get some low-key minutes. No idea who Lecque, Carter and Harper are.

Over/Under (28.5): I'm going under
I think they'll score a lot of points but they'll give up even more night in/night out. Rubio, Booker, Oubre, Saric and Ayton is a nice starting five but the depth gets dicey after that and the lack of fit between any of these players does not suggest cohesion will be coming. I just don't see how this team wins games at all.

2019-20 Phoenix Suns

2018-19: 19-63
Draft picks: 6,32

Signed for next season ($83.7m): Devin Booker, Tyler Johnson, TJ Warren, Deandre Ayton, Josh Jackson, Mikal Bridges, Elie Okobo, De'Anthony Melton, Jimmer Fredette, Ray Spalding
The future is Booker, the future is now.
Johnson has one last year left on his deal; a little pricey but the Suns are fine with one year of his game.
I kinda like Warren and he is signed (3yrs/$34m) to a very favorable deal. I'd play the hell out of him.
Ayton had a promising rookie year, this is the year where they truly figure out what they've got.
I still think Jackson can be a useful rotation guy, especially with Booker and Ayton. I'd play the hell out of him.
Bridges was promising, too, I'd play the hell out of him.
Okobo didn't exactly blow the league away last year but I think he has potential to be better next season. I'd play the hell out of him.
Melton had a surprisingly effective rookie year, I'd play the hell out of him (though I suspect he has the greatest chance of regression).
I don't know what they think they got in Fredette, I just don't see him as an NBA player.
Spalding seems like a nice guy, not sure he's more than a Summer Leaguer, though.


This summer's free agents: Dragan Bender, Troy Daniels, Kelly Oubre, Jamal Crawford, Richaun Holmes
I'd bring back Oubre and Holmes--indeed I thought the moves that brought in those guys were meant to be long-term fixes.
I'd let go of Bender (never figured what that guy does), Daniels and Crawford (OMG, I forgot he was on the Suns last year!).


Draft: I'll start with a pointless trade idea
Celtics get #6 (if Darius Garland (Vanderbilt) falls there); Suns get #14,#20,#22,#51.

If the Celtics can get Garland, it's worth their whole draft tray. They don't really need more young guys that need time, they need one guy that can play right now.

Unless the Suns love Garland--and the Suns are kinda overloaded with ball handlers right now--they should go ahead and just throw more youth on the pile. Who should they draft? Well, the Suns do traditionally love their Kentucky guys, do those three 1st round picks get them PJ Washington, Keldon Johnson and Tyler Herro? If so, go ahead and grab 'em. Or how about taking runs at Nicolas Claxton (Georgia) or Chuma Okeke (Auburn) to give them some depth down low. #32 could get them Carsen Edwards (Purdue), the only 2nd rd prospect that intrigues me. #51 could get them a foreign prospect like Josh Obiesie (Germany) or Marcus Louzada (Brazil). Suns might as well keep drafting.


Next year's lineup:
PG Booker, SG Oubre, SF Bridges, PF Warren, C Ayton with Johnson, Jackson, Okobo, Melton and Holmes off the bench. And hope you like it Suns fans because Booker/Oubre/Bridges/Warren/Ayton/Jackson is your 6 man rotation for the next two years at least.

They could use more size and obviously they'll need more depth but this looks like yet another fun/sloppy Suns squad. I don't see that lineup making the playoffs but I don't see it embarrassing the city of Phoenix, either, they'd be fun to watch. The Suns right now are just built to give young players a place to run around, might as well flip #6 for more chances to bring in more youth.