Wednesday, October 23, 2019

2019-20 NBA Pre-season (Central Division)

Bucks
Out:
Nikola Mirotic, Pau Gasol, Tim Frazier, Malcolm Brogdon, Jon Leuer, Bonzi Colson
Brogdon is gonna be tough to replace but the Bucks can still be really good without him (but, ouch, they're gonna miss him). Mirotic had his moments but didn't do much in the playoffs; strangely took a lesser deal to go back to Europe. Gasol was a nice playoff presence but I don't remember him playing at all for the Bucks last season. Frazier is a nice 2nd/3rd string PG but with Giannis and Middleton handling the ball so much, this is probably a position where they can afford to be thin. I always kinda liked Leuer but I reckon he didn't fit their plans. Colson had good buzz coming out of NCAA, perhaps getting out of Milwaukee will be the break he needs.

Re-signed:
Brook Lopez (4yr/$52m), George Hill (3yr/$28.8m), Khris Middleton, (5yr/$177.7m)
Middleton was a must: what I thought I'd see in the Bucks is that it is Giannis that gets everyone else going but actually Middleton gets Giannis going and then everyone else falls in to place; they're gonna miss Brogdon but with Middleton and Giannis there's enough to get past most teams night after night. And while the Bucks were appreciative of Lopez and Hill for their unexpectedly good seasons last year, giving them big raises for the same performance has got to feel a bit dispiriting; do you keep the continuity or do you allocate the big dollars for sexy additions? (They chose continuity; not bad, I still think they've got a great shot at finishing 1st in the East)

Signed:
Robin Lopez (2yr/$9.7m), Wesley Matthews (1yr/$5.2m), Thanassis Antetokounpo (2yr/$3.1m), Dragan Bender (2yr/$3.5m), Kyle Korver (1yr/$2.6m), Pacers 1st rd pick (top 14 protected 2020-2025), 2025 2nd rd pick, future 2nd rd pick, trade exception (something in the $20m range, no?)
(Another Lopez and another Antentokounpo? Dang!) Robin allows them to maximize their Lopez output (something I always thought would work for the Morris twins, too), which bodes well for their bench play. Matthews and Korver are both kinda limited at this point in their careers but they know how to play and I like adding hungry vets to a good team. I was never a Dragan Bender fan, whenever I've watched him I've never been able to figure out what that guy does on the court; if the Bucks have the right role for him, perhaps he'll finally find himself (at that price tag, he's worth a look, I reckon). That trade exception should give them room to move at the deadline, if they're willing to spend money. That 1st rounder will probably be around #20 I reckon, but more picks are always welcomed these days.

2-way and Exhibit 10 signings:
Cam Reynolds, Frank Mason
I can see Mason being a legit 3rd string PG in this league but I don't know Reynolds.

Over/Under (57.5): I got the over
I have them finishing 2nd in the East (and getting to the Finals). This team feels like they won't be as good as last year and certainly not any better. But they are so driven by Giannis that if he gets better than the team will, too. They've got enough vets and enough continuity to close out games and though losing Brogdon will be tough, I think any Giannis growth will offset that. They're still really good.


Pacers
Out:
Bojan Bogdanovic, Darren Collison, Davon Reed, Kyle O'Quinn, Tyreke Evans, Wes Matthews, Cory Joseph, Thaddeus Young, 2020 1st rd pick (top 14 protected), 2025 2nd rd pick, a future 2nd rd pick
I kinda love Bogdanovic, that's a tough loss, and Young is one of the more underrated players in the league. And though the rest make up a nice bench, I think they can get by without them. This team is all about Oladipo.

Re-signed:
Edmond Sumner (3yr/$4.2m guaranteed), Alize Johnson (guaranteed the final year of his current contract), Aaron Holiday (team exercised option; 1yr), TJ Leaf (team exercised option; 1yr)
Okay, I don't have any great opinions on any of these guys. But if the team likes them, then re-up them.

In:
Malcolm Brogdon (4yr/$85m), Jeremy Lamb (3yr/$31.5m), Goga Bitadze (4yr/$5.7m guaranteed), TJ McConnell (2 yr/$7m), Justin Holiday (1yr/$4.8m), JaKarr Sampson (1yr/$1.7m), Walt Lemon Jr, Three Heat 2nd rd picks (2022, 2025, 2026)
Brogdon is a good addition, a solid reliable PG that will keep the offense moving and won't turn the ball over. Lamb is nice, might be a nice fit here. I've heard intriguing things about Bitadze, could be a rookie to keep an eye on. I love TJ McConnell, the best 2nd string PG in the league (and that's not insignificant). Holiday, Sampson and Lemon are worthy roster fillers.

2nd rd draftees, 2-way contracts, Exhibition 10:
Naz Mitrou-Long, Amida Brimah (1yr/$1m)
I dunno, if the team likes 'em, then go for it.

Over/Under (46.5): I'm going under
I kinda like this team but if Oladipo misses any time at all (and he's slated to start the season injured), I just don't see how they make up for his production. Nice cast around him but they need Oladipo to be a big star to really take off. I've got them 5th in the East (but I don't see them moving on in the playoffs).


Pistons
Out:
Jon Leuer, Jose Calderon, Wayne Ellington, Kalin Lucas, Zaza Pachulia, Glenn Robinson, Ish Smth, Isaiah Whitehead, 2020 2nd rd pick, 2021 2nd rd pick, 2024 2nd rd pick
Ehh, a lot of okay players, nobody irreplaceable.

Re-signed:
Luke Kennard (team exercised option; 2yr)
Okay, now's the time to take a leap.

In:
Sekou Doumbouya (2yr/$6.7m), Tony Snell, Derrick Rose (2yr/$15m), Markieff Morris (2yr/$6.6m), Tim Frazier (1yr), Christian Wood, four Cavs 2nd rd picks (2020, 2021, 2023, 2024)
Doumbouya is an interesting rookie but hard to imagine he'll be good enough to really elevate this squad. Snell, Rose, Morris and Frazier are nice reliable vets (but, again, hard to see them as difference makers) and I always liked Wood, hope he gets some run finally. 2nd rd picks are like birthday cards from a weird uncle: hey, you never know, it might be good.

2nd rd draftees, 2-way contracts, Exhibition 10:
the rights to Deividas Sirvydis, Louis King, Jordan Bone
I dunno. I liked Bone in the NCAA, we'll see if he can step up.

Over/Under (37.5): I have them over
I don't love this team but they don't suck, this is a perfectly slightly above average squad. I have them 8th in the East (and dispatched quickly in the post-season). Not a good team, not a bad team but a sturdy one.


Bulls
Out:
Brandon Sampson, Rawle Alkins, Robin Lopez, Timothe Luwau-Cabarrot, Walt Lemon Jr., Wayne Selden, Antonio Blakeney, 2020 2nd rd pick
When a bad team doesn't come together, you don't really lament the guys that leave in the off-season even if you feel like they might've been helpful. I still kinda like Alkins and TLC and even Lemon and Blakeney, but the Bulls aren't worried about those guys not being around.

Re-signed:
Ryan Arcidiacono (2yr/$6m), Shaq Harrison (2yr/$4.5m)
I like these guys, both reasonable deals and gives them staggering depth at PG (which ain't bad, I guess).

In:
Thaddeus Young (3yr/$41m), Daniel Gafford (4yr/$6.1m), Tomas Satoransky (3yr/$30m), Luke Kornet (2yr/$4.5m), Coby White (4yr/$24m)
They already have Zach LaVine and Otto Porter to build around, so these deals are minimal cast building moves and I kinda like all of them. Young is underrated, Gafford had good buzz in NCAA, I really like Satoransky and I'm warming up on Kornet (very efficient player). If LaVine and Porter take a step forward and White is an ROY candidate, then they could take a real leap.

Also
Luol Deng signed a 1-day contract to retire
Gonna retire his jersey?

Over/Under (32.5): I got them over
I don't love the squad but its not bad, they've got a lot of guys primed to take a step forward next year and while they don't have the veteran savvy that knows how to get W's, I think they'll be good enough to take that step forward this season. Could be a bust out team but I don't see that. I don't have them in playoffs, for example, but I think they get 36 wins, which is good progression for where they've been the last few years.


Cavs
Out:
JR Smith, Deng Adel, Jarron Blossongame, Marquesse Chriss, Channing Frye, David Nwaba, Cameron Payne, Nik Stauskus
Getting rid of Smith is a great and glorious thing for the Cavs. I thought Nwaba really had a chance to be a good player in Cleveland, but didn't work out. As for the rest, oh well.

Re-signed: (none)

Newly signed:
Darius Garland (2yr/$13.1m), Dylan Windler (2yr/$2m), Kevin Porter Jr (2yr/$3.3m), Alfonzo McKinnie, Tyler Cook, Dean Wade
Okay, we're going full-on youth movement here.

Over/Under (24.5): I'm going under
Tristan Thompson, Brandon Knight, Jordan Clarkson, John Henson, and Matthew Dellavedova all come off the books next summer leaving the Cavs an extra $66.8m (yeah, I busted out the calculator for that shit!) to throw around. Factor in that Kevin Love's $28.9m contract could probably be had by anyone willing to throw a bunch of fresh young bodies at the Cavs and you're looking at a total rebuild. Also, their 1st rd pick next year is top 10 protected (then converts to 2nd rounders) meaning they are eager to suck this year. So if the Cavs are unexpectedly good, don't be surprised if management suddenly makes moves to get worse. This actually isn't a bad looking roster for now but everything points to them tanking hard this season. Bet the under!

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