2019-20 NFL Conference Champinships

Last week's games:
Vikings 10-27 Niners
Really good performance by the Niners, really solid all over the field, played their game and played it well. They looked really good. I thought the Vikings' strengths coming into this game were their O-line and D-line, but the Niners ripped right through both of them. The Niners ran the ball well and their pass rush wreaked havoc on the Vikings backfield. The Vikings completely ran out of gas in the 3rd quarter and the Niners just put it on them late. The Niners were really impressive and the Vikings just could not hang.

Titans 28-12 Ravens
The Ravens picked a horrible time to play their worst game of the year. Listen: a trait of Lamar Jackson that I noticed during the season was his tendency to get really down on himself for any mistake--I mean REALLY down on himself. You wanna see a youngster learn from his mistakes and a little bit of self-flagellation is gonna happen, but Lamar struck me as so hard on himself that a coach should probably take him aside and tell him to chill the fuck out. The danger of too much self-hatred is this game: the Titans got off to a good start, Lamar threw a flukey interception and it was all downhill from there. The Titans had two quick bursts of offense: two quick TDs in the 1st quarter and then two more quick ones in the 3rd quarter, but otherwise the Titans hardly an imposing offense--even with Derrick Henry dominating the game. Defensively, though, I thought the Titans were just about perfect, that spread secondary gave Lamar nowhere to go while that pass rush put the pressure on. An impressive performance by the Titans defense and they came to play hard, but really this was still available to the Ravens, but they just couldn't get going. Sad to see another tough L for Lamar Jackson this early in his career after such a great season, but the Titans did what they had to do.

Texans 31-51 Chiefs
Man, the Texans really let this one get away. They were up 14-0 instantly, fans in the stadium hadn't even gotten the seats warm and were already afraid that Titans-Ravens game was a preview for them. The Texans got another gift of a muffed punt to go up 21-0 ten minutes into the game! The turning point for me was on their next drive: the Texans got inside the 10-yard line and instead of going for it on 4th down, they took the FG; I would've gone for it, that was the jugular moment and even it failed it would've shown faith in the offense and the defense without really giving the Chiefs a momentum change moment. Instead, the momentum change came the next time the Texans had the ball when they faked a punt in their own territory and it failed. From that moment on, the Chiefs rolled and just...well, straight fuckin' destroyed the Texans. Imagine spotting the other team a 24-0 lead, giving up the entire 1st quarter and then still scoring 51 and easily covering the spread...whooch! (So, Titans fans....how ya feeling about your chances?)

Seahawks 23-28 Packers
The Packers played a good solid game: no crazy highs or lows, just stuck to the script and grinded forward to victory. The Seahawks are nice and Russell Wilson kept things spicy right to the end but they just didn't have enough to stop the Packer attack or keep up with the scoring on the other side. The Packers played smart, didn't go above and beyond just did what they had to do, a good workmanlike performance. The Seahawks are a tough team to figure because they live so much on whatever Russell Wilson invents each week, you can never tell when he's gonna make magic or when it's all going to catch up to them; in previous years I underrated the Seahawks but this year I think I overrated them.


This week:
Titans @ Chiefs (-7.5) (o/u 52)
My pre-season pick here was Chiefs over Ravens, with the Patriots being the most likely other opponent. So looking up and seeing the Titans instead makes it seem like a slam dunk, right? Well, I'd say 'yes'! Yeah, the Titans are playing really good right now, the D is keeping everything in front of it and Derrick Henry is re-inventing what an RB can do, they're the hot team and they look like a great cover as an underdog, right? Well, I'd say 'no'. Look I expected the Pats to beat the Titans because I just thought they'd make the plays to win the game but they didn't; I thought the Ravens would beat the Titans but instead they gave into their stage fright and fumbled the game away. Notice that in neither of those game did I really give the edge to the Titans playing great football. The Titans are playing good right now but so far they've come up against superior teams that failed to take what was right in front of them. I don't think the Chiefs are gonna be that way. I think the Chiefs are gonna score every time they touch the ball--because that Titans D is playing so well, it'll give the Chiefs the perfect opportunity to game plan. And if they can establish a good offense, build a lead, then the Titans will have to throw the ball and gamble on defense and those are not the strengths of this Titans team. They've had a good run but I think it ends. I'll say Chiefs 38-16 (Chiefs and the over).

Packers @ Niners (-7) (o/u 45)
These teams played a few weeks ago and the Niners housed 'em, wasn't even a game, it was over and then the Niners just kept going. I think people are expecting that to happen again but I don't. I think the Packers are going to play their best game, which will still come up short, but it'll give the Niners pause. The Niners should be able to move the ball but Jimmy G hasn't been here before, I expect not merely an interception or two but probably really badly timed ones that'll give the Packers some life. I expect Rodgers to play smart and Adams to make enough plays to keep this close. Make no mistake: I still think the Niners are the better team and will pull this out, but a close game here will probably be a blessing for them. I'll say Niners 27-21 (Packers and the over).

2019-20 NFL Divisional Round

Last week's games:
Bills 19-22 (OT) Texans
Kudos to the Bills for an exciting season (and fingers crossed, Bills fans: Brady and Pats seem to be at an impasse) but that 4th quarter meltdown was ominous. For three quarters you'd say the Bills were workmanlike, not flashy, but getting it done and that the Texans are playing their worst game of the season. Then that flipped quickly late in the 3rd quarter and the Bills closed out the game utterly shellshocked. (Dude, in the 4th quarter and beyond Josh Allen looked like he was already back in the hotel room thinking back on this game; kinda shocked he was able to drive down for the tying FG because he seemed a million miles away) Good win for the Texans, DeShaun Watson looked like the badass his rookie season hinted at.

Titans 20-13 Pats
The Titans ran ran ran all over the Pats but still couldn't score points and always managed to stall when they desperately needed a knockout blow. But, the Pats offense never got going and the Titans were able to squelch out any move forward for Tom Brady. Good W for the Titans, hard fought, they won in the trenches and by manipulating the rules--a most Belichickian way to seize the victory. The Pats had one of their worst seasons in ages and it feels like some turmoil may be on the way.

Vikings 26-20 (OT) Saints
I really thought the Saints offense was gonna find its footing but it never did, credit the Vikings tenacious D and their big play ability to stretch drives. The Saints have been bounced prematurely more often than not in the last decade even though that homefield advantage feels as strong as anyone in the league. Weird. The Vikings are a smart team, they do the little things and showed more big play ability than I ever would've thought. Good win for the Vikings and they could be dangerous going forward.

Seahawks 17-9 Eagles
Once Carson Wentz went out (*), the Eagles offense struggled and that pretty much doomed them in this game. The Seahawks were okay but not spectacular and managed to do just enough to hold on to the W. Meh, really thought the Seahawks should've dominated this game or at least controlled it--this finished as a one score game.


Coming up:
Vikings @ Niners (-7) (o/u 46)
This is gonna be close. The Vikings are a solid team on both sides, nothing will come easy against them. The Niners are good and getting better and can hang with anyone, but they haven't been here before. I'll take the Niners to pull it out late at home but I've got the Vikings to cover.  I'll say Niners 24-21 (Vikings and the under)

Titans @ Ravens (-10) (o/u 48.5)
I don't see the Titans winning this but there is an argument that they can slow the game down by running non-stop and not turning it over to keep the score close. But I just think the Ravens are too good on both sides of the ball and even if the Titans play their best game, I still think the Ravens bust it open by the 4th quarter. I'll say Ravens 37-20 (Ravens and the over)

Texans @ Chiefs (-9) o/u 49)
Like the Titans, I see no path for the Texans to do anything more than keep it close....and I don't even see that happening. The Chiefs were a bit lackluster this season but managed to go 12-4, so hard to say they're disappointing. I think the Chiefs jump out early and keep piling it on. I'll say Chiefs 41-16 (Chiefs and the over).

Seahawks @ Packers (-3.5) (o/u 46)
Could be a slopfest but that might be kinda fun, Rodgers and Russell slinging it around promises an invigorating 4th quarter. The Packers are good but inconsistent, the Seahawks are tenacious if a bit lesser on talent. This is the most likely to go to OT, wouldn't you say? I like the Packers to win it late. Packers 24-21 (Seahawks and the under).



(*) Correct me if I'm wrong, but on both of Wentz's notable injuries he was diving forward trying to make a play. If you think he should be less aggressive, okay, that's a reasonable suggestion for his longevity; but if you're trying to say that he's a wuss or injury-prone, I don't think that's fair at all and I'm kinda blown away than anyone would bother to have such a small-minded opinion.