2023 NFL Super Bowl

Chiefs 38-35 Eagles

I don't want to say it all came down to a bizarre penalty call, but that call--the first defensive holding penalty of the whole game and it came with less then 2 minutes to go--clearly cut into the Eagles' chances of getting the tying FG.  There were only 9 penalties in the entire and 6 were pre-snap penalties, so there were only 3 flags thrown during the run of play in the entire game! I cannot believe that the first holding penalty of the match occurred with under two minutes to go. Hated the call at the time, kinda hating it even more thinking back on it. 

The Eagles dominated the 1st half--indeed, without the fluky scoop-and-score on a weird Herts fumble, the Chiefs would not have been close at halftime. And, while I can understand the Chiefs made some adjustments (counterintuitively went to the running game to get yards and chew up the Eagle D), I don't really understand what happened to the Eagles offense in the 2nd half. They still moved the ball okay but they didn't convert on 3rd down as easily and that was the ball game. 

Mahomes was good (not great) but in the 2nd half he did what needed to be done and clearly the Eagles' defense got discombobulated--the last two TDs were because they didn't cover the receiver in motion (WTF?). The deft mix of running early and Mahomes' playmaking (the 20 yard scamper on a bad ankle will be the centerpiece of his Hall of Fame induction highlight reel), gave the Chiefs the momentum and, thanks to a lame late call, were able to ride that into the final minute. 

The Eagles D was great in the 1st half but the pass rush lost the script after halftime. The Eagles offense was great in the 1st half but not quite adequate after halftime. Somehow getting dominated in the 1st half was exactly what the Chiefs needed. The Eagles were good, the Chiefs were gooder.

Insanely early predictions for next year: I think the Bengals are the best team in the AFC and as for the NFC, well, we have to see what the QB situations (Rodgers, Brady, the various Niner cast offs) are going to yield. It wouldn't shock me if the Rams re-emerge or if the Commanders find the right QB and actually look kinda good and I can't really rule out the Panthers or Saints making big moves. With all the potential turnover, it could be that the Eagles cruise back to the Super Bowl or that a new team comes out of nowhere. 

2022-23 NFL Conference Championships

Niners 7-31 Eagles

Well, this was shaping up to be a good match but when QB Brock Purdy was knocked out early on and the Niners had to go to their 4th (!) string QB, well, that was the ball game. The Niners put up a game effort, as lopsided as the score looks, the Eagles didn't exactly dominate. The killer: right before halftime, the Niners tried to be aggressive (not a bad idea: the 2-minute drill is the one thing the backup QB probably practiced most), but when QB fumbled, it set the Eagles up for a quick TD before the half. That was bad. Up til then the Niners had at least been in striking distance but that giveaway pretty much finished them off. The Eagles didn't really do much after that, they didn't have to. 

Bengals 20-23 Chiefs

I thought the Bengals started slow, didn't make the most of their chances and still could've won this game (or at least get it to OT). Some blamed the refs but I don't see it that way at all, I think the Bengals played their worst game since September--and still could've pulled this out! To me the lesson was that the Bengals were the best team in the AFC this season and only Patrick Mahomes kept them from the glory. Mahomes was pretty great, even on a shredded ankle. The Bengals were the better team but you still gotta beat the Chiefs.

Chiefs @ Eagles (-1.5) (o/u 51)

I expect a good game, fun game, but I don't think it goes down to the wire. My initial thought was to go with the Chiefs as the underdog, but I've come around to thinking that the Eagle pass rush will be tough to beat. Much has been made of the Eagles' weak competition all season long, especially two playoff games where they were barely tested at all. Fine. But it got them to this point and I think that D is gonna be too much for Mahomes to overcome. I love Mahomes but I kinda feel like he's all the Chiefs have and I don't think he can elude the Eagles D for long enough to make this a game. I can see either team winning a close match, but I can't see the Chiefs laying a beatdown on the Eagles--but I can see the Eagles laying a beatdown on the Chiefs. If Mahomes gets knocked out, I'd say the game is over; but even if not, I'd say the Eagles can still shut him down and move the ball well enough to dominate. I don't really care that the Eagle schedule was soft, that don't matter at all. All that matters in this game is Mahomes' ankle and its not 100%, so I gotta go Eagles. I'll say Eagles 27-17 (Eagles and the under). 

2019-20 NFL Divisional Round

Last week's games:
Bills 19-22 (OT) Texans
Kudos to the Bills for an exciting season (and fingers crossed, Bills fans: Brady and Pats seem to be at an impasse) but that 4th quarter meltdown was ominous. For three quarters you'd say the Bills were workmanlike, not flashy, but getting it done and that the Texans are playing their worst game of the season. Then that flipped quickly late in the 3rd quarter and the Bills closed out the game utterly shellshocked. (Dude, in the 4th quarter and beyond Josh Allen looked like he was already back in the hotel room thinking back on this game; kinda shocked he was able to drive down for the tying FG because he seemed a million miles away) Good win for the Texans, DeShaun Watson looked like the badass his rookie season hinted at.

Titans 20-13 Pats
The Titans ran ran ran all over the Pats but still couldn't score points and always managed to stall when they desperately needed a knockout blow. But, the Pats offense never got going and the Titans were able to squelch out any move forward for Tom Brady. Good W for the Titans, hard fought, they won in the trenches and by manipulating the rules--a most Belichickian way to seize the victory. The Pats had one of their worst seasons in ages and it feels like some turmoil may be on the way.

Vikings 26-20 (OT) Saints
I really thought the Saints offense was gonna find its footing but it never did, credit the Vikings tenacious D and their big play ability to stretch drives. The Saints have been bounced prematurely more often than not in the last decade even though that homefield advantage feels as strong as anyone in the league. Weird. The Vikings are a smart team, they do the little things and showed more big play ability than I ever would've thought. Good win for the Vikings and they could be dangerous going forward.

Seahawks 17-9 Eagles
Once Carson Wentz went out (*), the Eagles offense struggled and that pretty much doomed them in this game. The Seahawks were okay but not spectacular and managed to do just enough to hold on to the W. Meh, really thought the Seahawks should've dominated this game or at least controlled it--this finished as a one score game.


Coming up:
Vikings @ Niners (-7) (o/u 46)
This is gonna be close. The Vikings are a solid team on both sides, nothing will come easy against them. The Niners are good and getting better and can hang with anyone, but they haven't been here before. I'll take the Niners to pull it out late at home but I've got the Vikings to cover.  I'll say Niners 24-21 (Vikings and the under)

Titans @ Ravens (-10) (o/u 48.5)
I don't see the Titans winning this but there is an argument that they can slow the game down by running non-stop and not turning it over to keep the score close. But I just think the Ravens are too good on both sides of the ball and even if the Titans play their best game, I still think the Ravens bust it open by the 4th quarter. I'll say Ravens 37-20 (Ravens and the over)

Texans @ Chiefs (-9) o/u 49)
Like the Titans, I see no path for the Texans to do anything more than keep it close....and I don't even see that happening. The Chiefs were a bit lackluster this season but managed to go 12-4, so hard to say they're disappointing. I think the Chiefs jump out early and keep piling it on. I'll say Chiefs 41-16 (Chiefs and the over).

Seahawks @ Packers (-3.5) (o/u 46)
Could be a slopfest but that might be kinda fun, Rodgers and Russell slinging it around promises an invigorating 4th quarter. The Packers are good but inconsistent, the Seahawks are tenacious if a bit lesser on talent. This is the most likely to go to OT, wouldn't you say? I like the Packers to win it late. Packers 24-21 (Seahawks and the under).



(*) Correct me if I'm wrong, but on both of Wentz's notable injuries he was diving forward trying to make a play. If you think he should be less aggressive, okay, that's a reasonable suggestion for his longevity; but if you're trying to say that he's a wuss or injury-prone, I don't think that's fair at all and I'm kinda blown away than anyone would bother to have such a small-minded opinion.

2018-19 NFL Playoffs (2nd round)

Last week

Colts 21-7 Texans
The Colts charged through the 1st quarter, scoring on their first three drives and forcing a 3-and-out and an INT on the Texan's first two possessions. That's really about all that happened, though. The Colts offense kinda turtled after that, didn't really try to exert any pressure on the Texan D and the Texan offense just never got started, so even though they moved the ball fairly well in the 2nd half, it didn't really matter. The Colts came out strong, left the Texans dazed and confused for the rest of the match. I thought the criticism of DeShaun Watson was unfounded: I thought he made plays, it was his receivers that dropped balls and didn't get open, to which I credit the surprisingly effective Colts D. Easy W for the Colts, another playoff disappointment for the Texans.

Seahawks 22-24 Cowboys
I just kept waiting for Russell Wilson to shake loose and do Russell Wilson stuff but it never really happened. The Seahawks seems so intent on running the ball, running the ball, running the ball, that they never gave their best weapon a chance to open up and win the game for them. Weird. The Cowboys were fine, they grinded their way to an advantage and held on. I really thought the Seahawks could've won this game but they didn't. Cowboys are balanced and very very not bad all over the field, they're not great but they're good enough to work over teams that don't bring their A-game.

Chargers 23-17 Ravens
The Ravens just didn't have any offense at all. I like Lamar Jackson, he's an intriguing talent and he provided a spark to this Ravens squad but, man, he did not have the magic in his opening playoff game. The Chargers didn't put up much of a fight, they played for FG's instead of TD's, got an FG and a punt blocked and didn't seems that aggressive on defense. But they didn't need to because the Ravens just couldn't score or move the ball with any real power. The Chargers didn't play their best but they didn't have to.

Eagles 16-15 Bears
What a tough L for the Bears. I knew this game would be low scoring, both teams feature excellent pass rushes and offenses that kinda scuffle. I knew going in the Eagles would have trouble scoring and instantly rushed to the Bears to win. But as soon as the game started it dawned on me, 'Wait...how do the Bears score...?' Yeah, I kinda forgot that part of it, that the Bears would be every bit as challenged as the Eagles. The Bears had their chance, double doink off the upright and crossbar (I thought it went in off the crossbar at first) and a new Chicago legacy of frustration is born. The Eagles still got some magic in 'em.


This week

Colts @ Chiefs (-5.5) (o/u 56)
Two things to remember: that Chiefs offense is amazing and that Chiefs defense is terrible. So will the amazing offense out last the terrible D? I think it will. The Colts have beaten expectations all year long and overcame a truly awful start to get into the post-season. Andrew Luck is playing well as is his O-line and the defense stifled DeShaun Watson last week, so they deserve to be here (and are looking very dangerous for next season). But the Chiefs are too good to be held down and I think the potentially crazy weather is going to throw a wrench into the dome-safe Colts' plans. Don't be surprised, though, if the Colts are the better team that just can't get it done down the stretch. I'll take the Chiefs to seal it late, 31-27 (Colts and the over).

Cowboys @ Rams (-7) (o/u 49)
The first half of the season the Rams were the best team in the league; for the second half, they were better than average but not better than the cream of the crop. For the first half of the season the Cowboys were pretty bad but got hot in the second half and are playing as well as anyone in the NFC. Clear case: if the Rams find their form, they'll pummel the Cowboys because they're better in every way; but if the Rams struggle, the Cowboys will hang around and give them a game. I'm gonna split the difference and say the Rams have moments of brilliance in an otherwise disappointing game, but they still end up with enough to move on. I'll take the Rams in a clumsy, hard-fought 24-20 victory (Cowboys and the under).

Chargers @ Pats (-4) (o/u 47)
The Pats didn't look as good as usual this year: Gronk is probably done, Brady looks a little Eli-ish out there at times, the WR's are dropping passes. But the defense is underappreciated and they've still got enough veteran smarts to get a playoff game in Foxboro. The Chargers are the vagabond team playing well enough on offense and better-than-expected on defense. The weather will not be in the Chargers' favor but I don't think the weather looks to work for the Pats either. Rather than crazy pass happy shootout a Brady-Rivers game would suggest, I think this'll be a sludgey, slow, ground control game where field position makes all the difference. And I think the Chargers make more plays than the Pats. I'll take the Chargers 17-14 (Chargers and the under)

Eagles @ Saints (-8) (o/u 51)
The Saints have the QB and the defense to be the best in the league, their home field advantage is immense and their ability to steal games late means they've never out of it--even when they're not playing well. The Eagles are the improbable defending champs who are improbably looking to do the improbable all over again. I think the Eagles caught the Bears not ready for prime time, but I don't think they'll find the Saints in the same mood. But the Saints can make mistakes and the Eagles got nothing to lose, so I think this will be an exciting game that goes right to the end. I'll take the Saints 31-27 (Eagles and the over).

2017-18 NFL (Super Bowl)

Jags 20-24 Pats
I thought the Pats would get out of the gate quick and they didn't. FG on the opening drive but then struggled on their next few drives while the Jags cranked it up and got out to a quick 14-3 lead. The Pats were able to cut the lead to 14-10 at the half and I still thought they were in line to get a big win. As good as Jax had played up to that point, it still felt like Brady could get hot and bury them.  But the Pats continued to struggle on offense through the 3rd quarter. Early in the 4th the Jags went up 20-10 and the stadium was deathly quiet. Then Gronk got knocked out of the game (I thought it was a headhunting hit, the kind of hit that was celebrated when I was kid but now just leads to hand-wringing and NYT op-ed pieces (well....unless its the Patriots)) and Lewis fumbles the ball away after a well-executed trick play (personally I didn't think it was a fumble, I was kinda surprised they gave the ball to the Jags). The Jags had their shot there to put the game away but they failed to get a 1st down and had to punt. From there Brady gets the 2 TD's needed to win (Amendola was the man making catch after catch and a big punt return with the game on the line) and the Pats are going on to another Super Bowl while the Jags are headed to the off-season (wondering how to replace Blake Bortles). The Jags just ran out of gas in the 2nd half, Bortles played well for 3 quarters and the D was mostly really good but they just couldn't make it last.

Vikings 7-33 Eagles
The Vikings started well with a solid drive ending in a TD. I thought it was important they start quick and they did and when they stuffed the Eagles on their first possession, it felt like the Vikings were on their way. Then on the next possession, Case Keenum got hit on a throw, Eagles picked it off and ran it back for a TD (brilliant run by the corner), tying the game. From there, the Vikings just disappeared and the game was already over. It kinda played out like a college basketball game where one team gets hot right before halftime then stays hot and the next thing you know they're up by 20 with 15 minutes to go. Yeah, it was like that. The Eagles got in a groove and stayed in the groove and the Vikings were just buried before they could even respond. Nick Foles was fantastic, the Eagles O-line pushed the Vikings (#1 defense in the league) around and the Eagle D was in Keenum's face all day. Great win for the Eagles.


Super Bowl
Though the AFC championship game did not start the way I thought it would, I'll go back to it: I think the Pats start quick today. Though Pats tend to start slow in Super Bowls, I think the Eagles D starts a little soft and the Pats are able to get out to a 10-0 lead right away. From there I think the Eagles take over. The Eagle offense, even without Carson Wentz, was dynamic enough to make mincemeat of the Vikings D and while Belichick is a defensive genius, I kinda think Mike Zimmer is too and he had way more talent. And on the other side I think the Eagles are deeper and more solid than the Jags defense. I think the Eagles get in Brady's face early and often (and I can see Gronk getting dirty-played again right away). The more I think about it, the more I think the Eagles win relatively easily. I thought that last year about the Falcons...and, well, it should've gone that way. This year I think the Eagles O-line can control the Pats leaving Foles enough room to make plays and I think the Eagles D will keep the running game from being relevant, knock Gronk out of the game and keep Brady backpedaling. At the moment the line is Pats -5.5, over/under of 47.5. I was going to say Eagles 24-21 but I think it's a bigger than that. I'll say Eagles 30-21, I'll go with the Eagles and the over.