Last week's games:
Bills 19-22 (OT) Texans
Kudos to the Bills for an exciting season (and fingers crossed, Bills fans: Brady and Pats seem to be at an impasse) but that 4th quarter meltdown was ominous. For three quarters you'd say the Bills were workmanlike, not flashy, but getting it done and that the Texans are playing their worst game of the season. Then that flipped quickly late in the 3rd quarter and the Bills closed out the game utterly shellshocked. (Dude, in the 4th quarter and beyond Josh Allen looked like he was already back in the hotel room thinking back on this game; kinda shocked he was able to drive down for the tying FG because he seemed a million miles away) Good win for the Texans, DeShaun Watson looked like the badass his rookie season hinted at.
Titans 20-13 Pats
The Titans ran ran ran all over the Pats but still couldn't score points and always managed to stall when they desperately needed a knockout blow. But, the Pats offense never got going and the Titans were able to squelch out any move forward for Tom Brady. Good W for the Titans, hard fought, they won in the trenches and by manipulating the rules--a most Belichickian way to seize the victory. The Pats had one of their worst seasons in ages and it feels like some turmoil may be on the way.
Vikings 26-20 (OT) Saints
I really thought the Saints offense was gonna find its footing but it never did, credit the Vikings tenacious D and their big play ability to stretch drives. The Saints have been bounced prematurely more often than not in the last decade even though that homefield advantage feels as strong as anyone in the league. Weird. The Vikings are a smart team, they do the little things and showed more big play ability than I ever would've thought. Good win for the Vikings and they could be dangerous going forward.
Seahawks 17-9 Eagles
Once Carson Wentz went out (*), the Eagles offense struggled and that pretty much doomed them in this game. The Seahawks were okay but not spectacular and managed to do just enough to hold on to the W. Meh, really thought the Seahawks should've dominated this game or at least controlled it--this finished as a one score game.
Coming up:
Vikings @ Niners (-7) (o/u 46)
This is gonna be close. The Vikings are a solid team on both sides, nothing will come easy against them. The Niners are good and getting better and can hang with anyone, but they haven't been here before. I'll take the Niners to pull it out late at home but I've got the Vikings to cover. I'll say Niners 24-21 (Vikings and the under)
Titans @ Ravens (-10) (o/u 48.5)
I don't see the Titans winning this but there is an argument that they can slow the game down by running non-stop and not turning it over to keep the score close. But I just think the Ravens are too good on both sides of the ball and even if the Titans play their best game, I still think the Ravens bust it open by the 4th quarter. I'll say Ravens 37-20 (Ravens and the over)
Texans @ Chiefs (-9) o/u 49)
Like the Titans, I see no path for the Texans to do anything more than keep it close....and I don't even see that happening. The Chiefs were a bit lackluster this season but managed to go 12-4, so hard to say they're disappointing. I think the Chiefs jump out early and keep piling it on. I'll say Chiefs 41-16 (Chiefs and the over).
Seahawks @ Packers (-3.5) (o/u 46)
Could be a slopfest but that might be kinda fun, Rodgers and Russell slinging it around promises an invigorating 4th quarter. The Packers are good but inconsistent, the Seahawks are tenacious if a bit lesser on talent. This is the most likely to go to OT, wouldn't you say? I like the Packers to win it late. Packers 24-21 (Seahawks and the under).
(*) Correct me if I'm wrong, but on both of Wentz's notable injuries he was diving forward trying to make a play. If you think he should be less aggressive, okay, that's a reasonable suggestion for his longevity; but if you're trying to say that he's a wuss or injury-prone, I don't think that's fair at all and I'm kinda blown away than anyone would bother to have such a small-minded opinion.
Showing posts with label pats. Show all posts
Showing posts with label pats. Show all posts
Friday, January 10, 2020
Tuesday, February 12, 2019
2018-19 Super Bowl
Pats 13-3 Rams
This will be remembered as the Super Bowl where nothing happened. The Pats moved the ball reasonably well but outside of their single late TD drive, they always managed to sputter. The Rams, on the other hand, never got any offense going at all. Brady and Goff's stats were eeirly similar considering that Brady kinda moved the ball whereas Goff went 3-and-out on virtually every drive. Belichik and Brady win another one, the torch has yet to be passed.
The fact that people were bored by spectacular defense calls attention to a weird anomaly of seeing football on TV: in football watching the ball means you miss the entire defense, you literally only get half the game. In basketball and hockey, you can generally see all the players at any given moment; in baseball and soccer, there's pretty much nothing to see away from the ball. But in football there's a lot of action the TV audience never gets to see. Really all you ever get to see is the QB, another factor in the QB being the most famous, highest paid player on each team. Yeah, this game was so unmemorable that pointless observations like this were more interesting to me that revisiting the game itself. I admire good defense, but football without offense gives the viewer a lot of time to kill.
The Pats are in that year-to-year mode and looking over that AFC East, unless there's big leaps forward by Josh Allen (I suppose it's possible) or Sam Darnold (doubt it, NYJ are born to suck), I gotta give the Pats at least one more year in the playoffs with a good shot at a bye in the first round. As for the Rams, there's more competition in the NFC and still a decent chance that Jimmy G and the Niners make a push and the Seahawks are still hanging around; Goff looked shaky in the last two games and Sean McVey is not quite right to put the other coaches out to pasture, but I like the Rams to be a factor in the post-season next year.
*sigh* I miss football.
This will be remembered as the Super Bowl where nothing happened. The Pats moved the ball reasonably well but outside of their single late TD drive, they always managed to sputter. The Rams, on the other hand, never got any offense going at all. Brady and Goff's stats were eeirly similar considering that Brady kinda moved the ball whereas Goff went 3-and-out on virtually every drive. Belichik and Brady win another one, the torch has yet to be passed.
The fact that people were bored by spectacular defense calls attention to a weird anomaly of seeing football on TV: in football watching the ball means you miss the entire defense, you literally only get half the game. In basketball and hockey, you can generally see all the players at any given moment; in baseball and soccer, there's pretty much nothing to see away from the ball. But in football there's a lot of action the TV audience never gets to see. Really all you ever get to see is the QB, another factor in the QB being the most famous, highest paid player on each team. Yeah, this game was so unmemorable that pointless observations like this were more interesting to me that revisiting the game itself. I admire good defense, but football without offense gives the viewer a lot of time to kill.
The Pats are in that year-to-year mode and looking over that AFC East, unless there's big leaps forward by Josh Allen (I suppose it's possible) or Sam Darnold (doubt it, NYJ are born to suck), I gotta give the Pats at least one more year in the playoffs with a good shot at a bye in the first round. As for the Rams, there's more competition in the NFC and still a decent chance that Jimmy G and the Niners make a push and the Seahawks are still hanging around; Goff looked shaky in the last two games and Sean McVey is not quite right to put the other coaches out to pasture, but I like the Rams to be a factor in the post-season next year.
*sigh* I miss football.
Sunday, February 4, 2018
2017-18 NFL (Super Bowl)
Jags 20-24 Pats
I thought the Pats would get out of the gate quick and they didn't. FG on the opening drive but then struggled on their next few drives while the Jags cranked it up and got out to a quick 14-3 lead. The Pats were able to cut the lead to 14-10 at the half and I still thought they were in line to get a big win. As good as Jax had played up to that point, it still felt like Brady could get hot and bury them. But the Pats continued to struggle on offense through the 3rd quarter. Early in the 4th the Jags went up 20-10 and the stadium was deathly quiet. Then Gronk got knocked out of the game (I thought it was a headhunting hit, the kind of hit that was celebrated when I was kid but now just leads to hand-wringing and NYT op-ed pieces (well....unless its the Patriots)) and Lewis fumbles the ball away after a well-executed trick play (personally I didn't think it was a fumble, I was kinda surprised they gave the ball to the Jags). The Jags had their shot there to put the game away but they failed to get a 1st down and had to punt. From there Brady gets the 2 TD's needed to win (Amendola was the man making catch after catch and a big punt return with the game on the line) and the Pats are going on to another Super Bowl while the Jags are headed to the off-season (wondering how to replace Blake Bortles). The Jags just ran out of gas in the 2nd half, Bortles played well for 3 quarters and the D was mostly really good but they just couldn't make it last.
Vikings 7-33 Eagles
The Vikings started well with a solid drive ending in a TD. I thought it was important they start quick and they did and when they stuffed the Eagles on their first possession, it felt like the Vikings were on their way. Then on the next possession, Case Keenum got hit on a throw, Eagles picked it off and ran it back for a TD (brilliant run by the corner), tying the game. From there, the Vikings just disappeared and the game was already over. It kinda played out like a college basketball game where one team gets hot right before halftime then stays hot and the next thing you know they're up by 20 with 15 minutes to go. Yeah, it was like that. The Eagles got in a groove and stayed in the groove and the Vikings were just buried before they could even respond. Nick Foles was fantastic, the Eagles O-line pushed the Vikings (#1 defense in the league) around and the Eagle D was in Keenum's face all day. Great win for the Eagles.
Super Bowl
Though the AFC championship game did not start the way I thought it would, I'll go back to it: I think the Pats start quick today. Though Pats tend to start slow in Super Bowls, I think the Eagles D starts a little soft and the Pats are able to get out to a 10-0 lead right away. From there I think the Eagles take over. The Eagle offense, even without Carson Wentz, was dynamic enough to make mincemeat of the Vikings D and while Belichick is a defensive genius, I kinda think Mike Zimmer is too and he had way more talent. And on the other side I think the Eagles are deeper and more solid than the Jags defense. I think the Eagles get in Brady's face early and often (and I can see Gronk getting dirty-played again right away). The more I think about it, the more I think the Eagles win relatively easily. I thought that last year about the Falcons...and, well, it should've gone that way. This year I think the Eagles O-line can control the Pats leaving Foles enough room to make plays and I think the Eagles D will keep the running game from being relevant, knock Gronk out of the game and keep Brady backpedaling. At the moment the line is Pats -5.5, over/under of 47.5. I was going to say Eagles 24-21 but I think it's a bigger than that. I'll say Eagles 30-21, I'll go with the Eagles and the over.
I thought the Pats would get out of the gate quick and they didn't. FG on the opening drive but then struggled on their next few drives while the Jags cranked it up and got out to a quick 14-3 lead. The Pats were able to cut the lead to 14-10 at the half and I still thought they were in line to get a big win. As good as Jax had played up to that point, it still felt like Brady could get hot and bury them. But the Pats continued to struggle on offense through the 3rd quarter. Early in the 4th the Jags went up 20-10 and the stadium was deathly quiet. Then Gronk got knocked out of the game (I thought it was a headhunting hit, the kind of hit that was celebrated when I was kid but now just leads to hand-wringing and NYT op-ed pieces (well....unless its the Patriots)) and Lewis fumbles the ball away after a well-executed trick play (personally I didn't think it was a fumble, I was kinda surprised they gave the ball to the Jags). The Jags had their shot there to put the game away but they failed to get a 1st down and had to punt. From there Brady gets the 2 TD's needed to win (Amendola was the man making catch after catch and a big punt return with the game on the line) and the Pats are going on to another Super Bowl while the Jags are headed to the off-season (wondering how to replace Blake Bortles). The Jags just ran out of gas in the 2nd half, Bortles played well for 3 quarters and the D was mostly really good but they just couldn't make it last.
Vikings 7-33 Eagles
The Vikings started well with a solid drive ending in a TD. I thought it was important they start quick and they did and when they stuffed the Eagles on their first possession, it felt like the Vikings were on their way. Then on the next possession, Case Keenum got hit on a throw, Eagles picked it off and ran it back for a TD (brilliant run by the corner), tying the game. From there, the Vikings just disappeared and the game was already over. It kinda played out like a college basketball game where one team gets hot right before halftime then stays hot and the next thing you know they're up by 20 with 15 minutes to go. Yeah, it was like that. The Eagles got in a groove and stayed in the groove and the Vikings were just buried before they could even respond. Nick Foles was fantastic, the Eagles O-line pushed the Vikings (#1 defense in the league) around and the Eagle D was in Keenum's face all day. Great win for the Eagles.
Super Bowl
Though the AFC championship game did not start the way I thought it would, I'll go back to it: I think the Pats start quick today. Though Pats tend to start slow in Super Bowls, I think the Eagles D starts a little soft and the Pats are able to get out to a 10-0 lead right away. From there I think the Eagles take over. The Eagle offense, even without Carson Wentz, was dynamic enough to make mincemeat of the Vikings D and while Belichick is a defensive genius, I kinda think Mike Zimmer is too and he had way more talent. And on the other side I think the Eagles are deeper and more solid than the Jags defense. I think the Eagles get in Brady's face early and often (and I can see Gronk getting dirty-played again right away). The more I think about it, the more I think the Eagles win relatively easily. I thought that last year about the Falcons...and, well, it should've gone that way. This year I think the Eagles O-line can control the Pats leaving Foles enough room to make plays and I think the Eagles D will keep the running game from being relevant, knock Gronk out of the game and keep Brady backpedaling. At the moment the line is Pats -5.5, over/under of 47.5. I was going to say Eagles 24-21 but I think it's a bigger than that. I'll say Eagles 30-21, I'll go with the Eagles and the over.
Saturday, January 21, 2017
NFL Final Four
NFC
Packers over Giants
NYG had the good defense going but a good D only inspires the bad Eli (makes bad teams good and good teams bad), so their strength becomes their weakness. Plus, Aaron Rodgers is just straight ballin' right now. This game really wasn't close--and OMG there was another fucking Hail Mary!
Seahawks over Lions
I thought Matt Stafford worked his ass off, thought he moved really well in the pocket, but he never had anyone to throw the ball to. The Lions this season had a fortuitous stretch of opponents and a pretty good offense. The Seahawks are looking kinda creaky but they're still plenty good enough to thump the Lions. This game, too, wasn't close.
Packers over Cowboys
I thought the Cowboys should've won this game, they had opportunities (and I'm blaming the philosophical approach, not the rookies, who I thought played pretty well), but they haven't been in the playoffs for a while and though they were the best team in the league, they weren't a complete enough team to stop prime Aaron Rodgers. I'm still not the impressed with the Packers: its just Rodgers by himself, that's tough to keep going in the NFL. Fascinating final 2-3 minutes of this game.
Falcons over Seahawks
The Falcons just straight pounded the Seahawks. The Seahawks started with an impressive TD drive and then did not much for the rest of the game. The Falcons were like a boxer that likes to get punched a little bit to get warmed up. The Falcons let the Seahawks do whatever they wanted on the first drive, gave them a false sense of confidence and then wore them down for the rest of the game.
Packers at Falcons
I was actually more impressed by the Falcons win over the Seahawks than I was by the Packers over the Cowboys. I know, I know: the Cowboys were the best team in the league this season and the Packers are peaking at just the right time, while the Seahawks are fading and jading and ready to fall apart. But the Falcons won by playing the game they've been playing all year long, whereas the Packers are clearly just making it up as they go, which is damn dangerous in the playoffs. I think the Packers could score some points but I am very confident the Falcons will score points--probably a lot of points. The Falcons are sliding into a high level groove, the Packers are rattling along with occasional bursts of brilliance. The fun money is obviously on Aaron Rodgers ballin' out, making 3-4 hero plays down the stretch and the old timey Pack offense rising again....but I ain't seeing it. The Falcon D is good enough to not get destroyed by the Packers and the Falcon O is probably the best in the league, rounding into shape at home at just the right time. I think Falcons run them out of the stadium. The Packers might get loose and run up the score but even then I still just can't see them outscoring the Falcons. I'll take the Falcons to win and cover (-6).
AFC
Texans over Raiders
I thought the Raiders had enough offense to get past the Texans but, man, Connor Cook looked like a flipped over turtle in the sun against that Texan pass rush. Right away you could tell the Raiders had no offense at all and while the Texans didn't look brilliant or anything, they did look like a perfectly ordinary NFL team while the Raiders looked like a beautiful sports car that's only got two tires on it (still beautiful but utterly useless).
Steelers over Dolphins
The Dolphins looked fine for the first few drives but once Matt Moore got hit...I haven't seen anyone drilled in the face like that Traci Lords in her prime (I dunno, too far?)...And they brought him back out! For one play he looked like a homeless man on the expressway, it was cringeworthy to watch. But once they got down to 3rd string, there was just no way they were gonna hang. I've been skeptical of the Steelers all year but they're way better than the Dolphins on a 3rd string QB.
Patriots over Texans
Do you see how this works: Tom Bady got exposed, the Pats played their worst game in years....and they effortlessly scored 30 points. Even on a bad day, they're gonna outscore most everyone they play. The Texan D really is one of the finest in the league--even while being decimated by injuries--but the Texans were never really in that game. Come on. The Pats started slow but they controlled the game comfortably throughout.
Steelers over Chiefs
The Chiefs were the better team, that D played well enough to keep Alex Smith in the game and the Chiefs offense had a few moments of looking pretty good. But not really. The Steelers moved the ball at will, they didn't pile up points but they ate up the clock, played solid D and avoided big mistakes. The Steelers are a veteran outfit that knows what they're doing. But that doesn't mean they're the better team on any given Sunday, it just means they'll play a professional game and expect to be in it at the end. I thought the Chiefs should've/could've won the game.
Steelers at Pats
The Pats on a bad day will still score a ton of points. I think they'll figure out the Steelers eventually and I suspect the Pats D will have some wrinkles for Roethlisberger and company. LaVeon Bell is the key to the Steeler attack now and the reason the Steelers can sit on leads and keep the other QB off the field. Belichik will stop Bell first and take his chances with Roethlisberger going over the top. If the Pats can avoid the big plays, they should easily take the Steelers. The Pats offense glides at this point and I don't think the Steelers will stop them. I'll take the Pats (-6) to win and cover.
I was flummoxed on the 1st round games, I had all four underdogs to at least cover, instead not one of them even put up a good game. The Raiders and Dolphins were cooked by injuries, the Lions and Giants were big play offenses that didn't get lucky. All four games were pretty flat.
The next round was good. Texans put on a pretty good show, the Seahawks started strong and looked kinda scary at first, while the Cowboys and Chiefs really should've played better at home but both still had chances to win late. But the winning teams were the better teams and the semi-finals looks pretty damn good after such a slow start to this season. The first half of the year had a weird shadow over it, all the teams (except Cowboys and Pats) looked mediocre, there was no real buzz about anything this year. But after Thanksgiving, NFL got really good. Its interesting for the Cowboys to be good again, they accounted for huge TV ratings all year. And these last three games are gonna make for good football.
I got Pats-Falcons for big trophy. Two really good offenses, two not bad defenses, shaping up to be a scorefest, haven't had one of those in a while.
Packers over Giants
NYG had the good defense going but a good D only inspires the bad Eli (makes bad teams good and good teams bad), so their strength becomes their weakness. Plus, Aaron Rodgers is just straight ballin' right now. This game really wasn't close--and OMG there was another fucking Hail Mary!
Seahawks over Lions
I thought Matt Stafford worked his ass off, thought he moved really well in the pocket, but he never had anyone to throw the ball to. The Lions this season had a fortuitous stretch of opponents and a pretty good offense. The Seahawks are looking kinda creaky but they're still plenty good enough to thump the Lions. This game, too, wasn't close.
Packers over Cowboys
I thought the Cowboys should've won this game, they had opportunities (and I'm blaming the philosophical approach, not the rookies, who I thought played pretty well), but they haven't been in the playoffs for a while and though they were the best team in the league, they weren't a complete enough team to stop prime Aaron Rodgers. I'm still not the impressed with the Packers: its just Rodgers by himself, that's tough to keep going in the NFL. Fascinating final 2-3 minutes of this game.
Falcons over Seahawks
The Falcons just straight pounded the Seahawks. The Seahawks started with an impressive TD drive and then did not much for the rest of the game. The Falcons were like a boxer that likes to get punched a little bit to get warmed up. The Falcons let the Seahawks do whatever they wanted on the first drive, gave them a false sense of confidence and then wore them down for the rest of the game.
Packers at Falcons
I was actually more impressed by the Falcons win over the Seahawks than I was by the Packers over the Cowboys. I know, I know: the Cowboys were the best team in the league this season and the Packers are peaking at just the right time, while the Seahawks are fading and jading and ready to fall apart. But the Falcons won by playing the game they've been playing all year long, whereas the Packers are clearly just making it up as they go, which is damn dangerous in the playoffs. I think the Packers could score some points but I am very confident the Falcons will score points--probably a lot of points. The Falcons are sliding into a high level groove, the Packers are rattling along with occasional bursts of brilliance. The fun money is obviously on Aaron Rodgers ballin' out, making 3-4 hero plays down the stretch and the old timey Pack offense rising again....but I ain't seeing it. The Falcon D is good enough to not get destroyed by the Packers and the Falcon O is probably the best in the league, rounding into shape at home at just the right time. I think Falcons run them out of the stadium. The Packers might get loose and run up the score but even then I still just can't see them outscoring the Falcons. I'll take the Falcons to win and cover (-6).
AFC
Texans over Raiders
I thought the Raiders had enough offense to get past the Texans but, man, Connor Cook looked like a flipped over turtle in the sun against that Texan pass rush. Right away you could tell the Raiders had no offense at all and while the Texans didn't look brilliant or anything, they did look like a perfectly ordinary NFL team while the Raiders looked like a beautiful sports car that's only got two tires on it (still beautiful but utterly useless).
Steelers over Dolphins
The Dolphins looked fine for the first few drives but once Matt Moore got hit...I haven't seen anyone drilled in the face like that Traci Lords in her prime (I dunno, too far?)...And they brought him back out! For one play he looked like a homeless man on the expressway, it was cringeworthy to watch. But once they got down to 3rd string, there was just no way they were gonna hang. I've been skeptical of the Steelers all year but they're way better than the Dolphins on a 3rd string QB.
Patriots over Texans
Do you see how this works: Tom Bady got exposed, the Pats played their worst game in years....and they effortlessly scored 30 points. Even on a bad day, they're gonna outscore most everyone they play. The Texan D really is one of the finest in the league--even while being decimated by injuries--but the Texans were never really in that game. Come on. The Pats started slow but they controlled the game comfortably throughout.
Steelers over Chiefs
The Chiefs were the better team, that D played well enough to keep Alex Smith in the game and the Chiefs offense had a few moments of looking pretty good. But not really. The Steelers moved the ball at will, they didn't pile up points but they ate up the clock, played solid D and avoided big mistakes. The Steelers are a veteran outfit that knows what they're doing. But that doesn't mean they're the better team on any given Sunday, it just means they'll play a professional game and expect to be in it at the end. I thought the Chiefs should've/could've won the game.
Steelers at Pats
The Pats on a bad day will still score a ton of points. I think they'll figure out the Steelers eventually and I suspect the Pats D will have some wrinkles for Roethlisberger and company. LaVeon Bell is the key to the Steeler attack now and the reason the Steelers can sit on leads and keep the other QB off the field. Belichik will stop Bell first and take his chances with Roethlisberger going over the top. If the Pats can avoid the big plays, they should easily take the Steelers. The Pats offense glides at this point and I don't think the Steelers will stop them. I'll take the Pats (-6) to win and cover.
I was flummoxed on the 1st round games, I had all four underdogs to at least cover, instead not one of them even put up a good game. The Raiders and Dolphins were cooked by injuries, the Lions and Giants were big play offenses that didn't get lucky. All four games were pretty flat.
The next round was good. Texans put on a pretty good show, the Seahawks started strong and looked kinda scary at first, while the Cowboys and Chiefs really should've played better at home but both still had chances to win late. But the winning teams were the better teams and the semi-finals looks pretty damn good after such a slow start to this season. The first half of the year had a weird shadow over it, all the teams (except Cowboys and Pats) looked mediocre, there was no real buzz about anything this year. But after Thanksgiving, NFL got really good. Its interesting for the Cowboys to be good again, they accounted for huge TV ratings all year. And these last three games are gonna make for good football.
I got Pats-Falcons for big trophy. Two really good offenses, two not bad defenses, shaping up to be a scorefest, haven't had one of those in a while.
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