2019-20 NFL Conference Champinships

Last week's games:
Vikings 10-27 Niners
Really good performance by the Niners, really solid all over the field, played their game and played it well. They looked really good. I thought the Vikings' strengths coming into this game were their O-line and D-line, but the Niners ripped right through both of them. The Niners ran the ball well and their pass rush wreaked havoc on the Vikings backfield. The Vikings completely ran out of gas in the 3rd quarter and the Niners just put it on them late. The Niners were really impressive and the Vikings just could not hang.

Titans 28-12 Ravens
The Ravens picked a horrible time to play their worst game of the year. Listen: a trait of Lamar Jackson that I noticed during the season was his tendency to get really down on himself for any mistake--I mean REALLY down on himself. You wanna see a youngster learn from his mistakes and a little bit of self-flagellation is gonna happen, but Lamar struck me as so hard on himself that a coach should probably take him aside and tell him to chill the fuck out. The danger of too much self-hatred is this game: the Titans got off to a good start, Lamar threw a flukey interception and it was all downhill from there. The Titans had two quick bursts of offense: two quick TDs in the 1st quarter and then two more quick ones in the 3rd quarter, but otherwise the Titans hardly an imposing offense--even with Derrick Henry dominating the game. Defensively, though, I thought the Titans were just about perfect, that spread secondary gave Lamar nowhere to go while that pass rush put the pressure on. An impressive performance by the Titans defense and they came to play hard, but really this was still available to the Ravens, but they just couldn't get going. Sad to see another tough L for Lamar Jackson this early in his career after such a great season, but the Titans did what they had to do.

Texans 31-51 Chiefs
Man, the Texans really let this one get away. They were up 14-0 instantly, fans in the stadium hadn't even gotten the seats warm and were already afraid that Titans-Ravens game was a preview for them. The Texans got another gift of a muffed punt to go up 21-0 ten minutes into the game! The turning point for me was on their next drive: the Texans got inside the 10-yard line and instead of going for it on 4th down, they took the FG; I would've gone for it, that was the jugular moment and even it failed it would've shown faith in the offense and the defense without really giving the Chiefs a momentum change moment. Instead, the momentum change came the next time the Texans had the ball when they faked a punt in their own territory and it failed. From that moment on, the Chiefs rolled and just...well, straight fuckin' destroyed the Texans. Imagine spotting the other team a 24-0 lead, giving up the entire 1st quarter and then still scoring 51 and easily covering the spread...whooch! (So, Titans fans....how ya feeling about your chances?)

Seahawks 23-28 Packers
The Packers played a good solid game: no crazy highs or lows, just stuck to the script and grinded forward to victory. The Seahawks are nice and Russell Wilson kept things spicy right to the end but they just didn't have enough to stop the Packer attack or keep up with the scoring on the other side. The Packers played smart, didn't go above and beyond just did what they had to do, a good workmanlike performance. The Seahawks are a tough team to figure because they live so much on whatever Russell Wilson invents each week, you can never tell when he's gonna make magic or when it's all going to catch up to them; in previous years I underrated the Seahawks but this year I think I overrated them.


This week:
Titans @ Chiefs (-7.5) (o/u 52)
My pre-season pick here was Chiefs over Ravens, with the Patriots being the most likely other opponent. So looking up and seeing the Titans instead makes it seem like a slam dunk, right? Well, I'd say 'yes'! Yeah, the Titans are playing really good right now, the D is keeping everything in front of it and Derrick Henry is re-inventing what an RB can do, they're the hot team and they look like a great cover as an underdog, right? Well, I'd say 'no'. Look I expected the Pats to beat the Titans because I just thought they'd make the plays to win the game but they didn't; I thought the Ravens would beat the Titans but instead they gave into their stage fright and fumbled the game away. Notice that in neither of those game did I really give the edge to the Titans playing great football. The Titans are playing good right now but so far they've come up against superior teams that failed to take what was right in front of them. I don't think the Chiefs are gonna be that way. I think the Chiefs are gonna score every time they touch the ball--because that Titans D is playing so well, it'll give the Chiefs the perfect opportunity to game plan. And if they can establish a good offense, build a lead, then the Titans will have to throw the ball and gamble on defense and those are not the strengths of this Titans team. They've had a good run but I think it ends. I'll say Chiefs 38-16 (Chiefs and the over).

Packers @ Niners (-7) (o/u 45)
These teams played a few weeks ago and the Niners housed 'em, wasn't even a game, it was over and then the Niners just kept going. I think people are expecting that to happen again but I don't. I think the Packers are going to play their best game, which will still come up short, but it'll give the Niners pause. The Niners should be able to move the ball but Jimmy G hasn't been here before, I expect not merely an interception or two but probably really badly timed ones that'll give the Packers some life. I expect Rodgers to play smart and Adams to make enough plays to keep this close. Make no mistake: I still think the Niners are the better team and will pull this out, but a close game here will probably be a blessing for them. I'll say Niners 27-21 (Packers and the over).

2019-20 NFL Divisional Round

Last week's games:
Bills 19-22 (OT) Texans
Kudos to the Bills for an exciting season (and fingers crossed, Bills fans: Brady and Pats seem to be at an impasse) but that 4th quarter meltdown was ominous. For three quarters you'd say the Bills were workmanlike, not flashy, but getting it done and that the Texans are playing their worst game of the season. Then that flipped quickly late in the 3rd quarter and the Bills closed out the game utterly shellshocked. (Dude, in the 4th quarter and beyond Josh Allen looked like he was already back in the hotel room thinking back on this game; kinda shocked he was able to drive down for the tying FG because he seemed a million miles away) Good win for the Texans, DeShaun Watson looked like the badass his rookie season hinted at.

Titans 20-13 Pats
The Titans ran ran ran all over the Pats but still couldn't score points and always managed to stall when they desperately needed a knockout blow. But, the Pats offense never got going and the Titans were able to squelch out any move forward for Tom Brady. Good W for the Titans, hard fought, they won in the trenches and by manipulating the rules--a most Belichickian way to seize the victory. The Pats had one of their worst seasons in ages and it feels like some turmoil may be on the way.

Vikings 26-20 (OT) Saints
I really thought the Saints offense was gonna find its footing but it never did, credit the Vikings tenacious D and their big play ability to stretch drives. The Saints have been bounced prematurely more often than not in the last decade even though that homefield advantage feels as strong as anyone in the league. Weird. The Vikings are a smart team, they do the little things and showed more big play ability than I ever would've thought. Good win for the Vikings and they could be dangerous going forward.

Seahawks 17-9 Eagles
Once Carson Wentz went out (*), the Eagles offense struggled and that pretty much doomed them in this game. The Seahawks were okay but not spectacular and managed to do just enough to hold on to the W. Meh, really thought the Seahawks should've dominated this game or at least controlled it--this finished as a one score game.


Coming up:
Vikings @ Niners (-7) (o/u 46)
This is gonna be close. The Vikings are a solid team on both sides, nothing will come easy against them. The Niners are good and getting better and can hang with anyone, but they haven't been here before. I'll take the Niners to pull it out late at home but I've got the Vikings to cover.  I'll say Niners 24-21 (Vikings and the under)

Titans @ Ravens (-10) (o/u 48.5)
I don't see the Titans winning this but there is an argument that they can slow the game down by running non-stop and not turning it over to keep the score close. But I just think the Ravens are too good on both sides of the ball and even if the Titans play their best game, I still think the Ravens bust it open by the 4th quarter. I'll say Ravens 37-20 (Ravens and the over)

Texans @ Chiefs (-9) o/u 49)
Like the Titans, I see no path for the Texans to do anything more than keep it close....and I don't even see that happening. The Chiefs were a bit lackluster this season but managed to go 12-4, so hard to say they're disappointing. I think the Chiefs jump out early and keep piling it on. I'll say Chiefs 41-16 (Chiefs and the over).

Seahawks @ Packers (-3.5) (o/u 46)
Could be a slopfest but that might be kinda fun, Rodgers and Russell slinging it around promises an invigorating 4th quarter. The Packers are good but inconsistent, the Seahawks are tenacious if a bit lesser on talent. This is the most likely to go to OT, wouldn't you say? I like the Packers to win it late. Packers 24-21 (Seahawks and the under).



(*) Correct me if I'm wrong, but on both of Wentz's notable injuries he was diving forward trying to make a play. If you think he should be less aggressive, okay, that's a reasonable suggestion for his longevity; but if you're trying to say that he's a wuss or injury-prone, I don't think that's fair at all and I'm kinda blown away than anyone would bother to have such a small-minded opinion.

NFL Final Four

NFC

Packers over Giants
NYG had the good defense going but a good D only inspires the bad Eli (makes bad teams good and good teams bad), so their strength becomes their weakness. Plus, Aaron Rodgers is just straight ballin' right now. This game really wasn't close--and OMG there was another fucking Hail Mary!

Seahawks over Lions
I thought Matt Stafford worked his ass off, thought he moved really well in the pocket, but he never had anyone to throw the ball to. The Lions this season had a fortuitous stretch of opponents and a pretty good offense. The Seahawks are looking kinda creaky but they're still plenty good enough to thump the Lions. This game, too, wasn't close.

Packers over Cowboys
I thought the Cowboys should've won this game, they had opportunities (and I'm blaming the philosophical approach, not the rookies, who I thought played pretty well), but they haven't been in the playoffs for a while and though they were the best team in the league, they weren't a complete enough team to stop prime Aaron Rodgers. I'm still not the impressed with the Packers: its just Rodgers by himself, that's tough to keep going in the NFL. Fascinating final 2-3 minutes of this game.

Falcons over Seahawks
The Falcons just straight pounded the Seahawks. The Seahawks started with an impressive TD drive and then did not much for the rest of the game. The Falcons were like a boxer that likes to get punched a little bit to get warmed up. The Falcons let the Seahawks do whatever they wanted on the first drive, gave them a false sense of confidence and then wore them down for the rest of the game.

Packers at Falcons
I was actually more impressed by the Falcons win over the Seahawks than I was by the Packers over the Cowboys. I know, I know: the Cowboys were the best team in the league this season and the Packers are peaking at just the right time, while the Seahawks are fading and jading and ready to fall apart. But the Falcons won by playing the game they've been playing all year long, whereas the Packers are clearly just making it up as they go, which is damn dangerous in the playoffs. I think the Packers could score some points but I am very confident the Falcons will score points--probably a lot of points. The Falcons are sliding into a high level groove, the Packers are rattling along with occasional bursts of brilliance. The fun money is obviously on Aaron Rodgers ballin' out, making 3-4 hero plays down the stretch and the old timey Pack offense rising again....but I ain't seeing it. The Falcon D is good enough to not get destroyed by the Packers and the Falcon O is probably the best in the league, rounding into shape at home at just the right time. I think Falcons run them out of the stadium. The Packers might get loose and run up the score but even then I still just can't see them outscoring the Falcons. I'll take the Falcons to win and cover (-6).

AFC

Texans over Raiders
I thought the Raiders had enough offense to get past the Texans but, man, Connor Cook looked like a flipped over turtle in the sun against that Texan pass rush. Right away you could tell the Raiders had no offense at all and while the Texans didn't look brilliant or anything, they did look like a perfectly ordinary NFL team while the Raiders looked like a beautiful sports car that's only got two tires on it (still beautiful but utterly useless).

Steelers over Dolphins
The Dolphins looked fine for the first few drives but once Matt Moore got hit...I haven't seen anyone drilled in the face like that Traci Lords in her prime (I dunno, too far?)...And they brought him back out! For one play he looked like a homeless man on the expressway, it was cringeworthy to watch. But once they got down to 3rd string, there was just no way they were gonna hang. I've been skeptical of the Steelers all year but they're way better than the Dolphins on a 3rd string QB.

Patriots over Texans
Do you see how this works: Tom Bady got exposed, the Pats played their worst game in years....and they effortlessly scored 30 points. Even on a bad day, they're gonna outscore most everyone they play. The Texan D really is one of the finest in the league--even while being decimated by injuries--but the Texans were never really in that game. Come on. The Pats started slow but they controlled the game comfortably throughout.

Steelers over Chiefs
The Chiefs were the better team, that D played well enough to keep Alex Smith in the game and the Chiefs offense had a few moments of looking pretty good. But not really. The Steelers moved the ball at will, they didn't pile up points but they ate up the clock, played solid D and avoided big mistakes. The Steelers are a veteran outfit that knows what they're doing. But that doesn't mean they're the better team on any given Sunday, it just means they'll play a professional game and expect to be in it at the end. I thought the Chiefs should've/could've won the game.

Steelers at Pats
The Pats on a bad day will still score a ton of points. I think they'll figure out the Steelers eventually and I suspect the Pats D will have some wrinkles for Roethlisberger and company. LaVeon Bell is the key to the Steeler attack now and the reason the Steelers can sit on leads and keep the other QB off the field. Belichik will stop Bell first and take his chances with Roethlisberger going over the top. If the Pats can avoid the big plays, they should easily take the Steelers. The Pats offense glides at this point and I don't think the Steelers will stop them. I'll take the Pats (-6) to win and cover.

I was flummoxed on the 1st round games, I had all four underdogs to at least cover, instead not one of them even put up a good game. The Raiders and Dolphins were cooked by injuries, the Lions and Giants were big play offenses that didn't get lucky. All four games were pretty flat.

The next round was good. Texans put on a pretty good show, the Seahawks started strong and looked kinda scary at first, while the Cowboys and Chiefs really should've played better at home but both still had chances to win late. But the winning teams were the better teams and the semi-finals looks pretty damn good after such a slow start to this season. The first half of the year had a weird shadow over it, all the teams (except Cowboys and Pats) looked mediocre, there was no real buzz about anything this year. But after Thanksgiving, NFL got really good. Its interesting for the Cowboys to be good again, they accounted for huge TV ratings all year. And these last three games are gonna make for good football.

I got Pats-Falcons for big trophy. Two really good offenses, two not bad defenses, shaping up to be a scorefest, haven't had one of those in a while.

NFL Playoffs

Chiefs (-3) at Texans
The Texans have a solid D....and not much else. Though they've played well for the last two months, they don't have any really impressive wins. The Chiefs don't really either but their early season losses are better and hide the fact that they were actually pretty good all year long. The Chiefs are the better team, better QB, better weapons, probably even a better D line and though the offense isn't overwhelming, they don't turn the ball over and that's the only hope the Texans have to score points. I just don't see how the Texans move the ball at all.  Gotta take the Chiefs to cover.

Steelers (-2.5) at Bengals
The Steelers are the popular pick as dark horse these days, while the Bengals haven't won a playoff game since...shit, I don't even know. But I watched both of these squads a lot this year: the Bengals are a legit squad on both sides of the ball and even with a backup QB, I think they can preserve field position and score points; the Steelers are so-so on D, a running game that is nice but nothing superlative, and while they have a great receiving corps, I'm not overhwelmed by the pass protection. If Big Ben can get over the top down field to his receivers then they can beat anyone in the league, but beyond that I don't think they're a very good team. Also, Big Ben is capable of throwing many many interceptions. I see the latter, I think the Bengals D is stout and I think even AJ McCarron will be good enough to get past the Steelers. I'll take the Bengals to cover and win.

Seahawks (-3.5) at Vikings
A strange thing looking over the Seahawks schedule this year: their most impressive win is at Minnesota in Week 13 (I'm not buying into a win at Arizona in Week 17, the Cards didn't need it, didn't put forth their best effort). Otherwise they lost to every other good team they played: Packers, Panthers, Bengals, Cards (in addition to getting inexplicably swept by the mediocre Rams). The Vikings lost in Week 1 at San Francisco but the other losses are legit: @Broncos, Packers, Seahawks, @Cards. Their wins include Chiefs, @Raiders, @Falcons, Giants, @Packers. The Vikings also remind me as a better version of the Rams, who seem to own the Seahawks. Both teams have been playing well for the last two months, so how do we weight the Seahawks victory at Minnesota in Week 13? Was that a preview of what's to come or where the Vikings playing opossum? I think the Vikings are legit, that D line is one of the best in the league, Bridgewater is underappreciated, Peterson is one of the best RBs in the league and I'm still kinda skeptical of the Seahawks and trying to win in someone else's house twice in the same year is pretty rare. All that said, I think the Seahawks' advantage is in the coaching: they've made deep runs the last 3 years, I think they can do it again whereas the Vikings staff has no track record whatsoever. I feel like the Vikings can hang but if the Seahawks get an early lead, I think they'll squeeze the life out of the Viking running game. I'll take the Seahawks to cover (but I wouldn't be surprised to see the Vikings show more than they've shown so far).

Packers (-1) at Redskins
Packers started off 6-0, looked great, arguably the best team in the league heading into their Week 7 bye. Then the wheels came off. Lost @Broncos (no sweat, Bronco D is solid, that particular game is when the Broncos finally got their running game going). Lost @Panthers (no sweat, that was the moment we all finally realized that the Panthers are actually good). Lost to the Lions (red flag! Dude, the Lions were trying to sooooooo hard to give that game away! And the Packers still couldn't take it!). Win @Vikings (sigh of relief for Packers fans, good win on the road against a feisty division opponet). Lost to Bears (uh oh, Packer fans getting the sweats again). Win @Lions (nice to get the W but that was the luckiest win anyone has seen in years, not exactly a confidence boost). Back to back W's against the Cowboys and @Raiders (okay, getting back to business, winning the games that ought to be won). Then finished with back to back losses to @Cards (no sweat, the Cards are frickin' good this year) and Vikings (uh oh, that was basically a home playoff game). Outside of Aaron Rodgers I think the Packers kinda suck. The D is not stout, those recievers are actually pretty terrible, offensive line isn't inspiring confidence, special teams isn't too special--what makes anyone think they're going to win a playoff game on the road when they basically just lost one at home? Redskins started mediocre, more or less stayed mediocre but they have won 6 of their last 8 games. They seem to have found their QB of the future and the D isn't bad. But are they better than the Packers? Well, they might be. The Packers are not terribly impressive right now and I think the pressure is on Rodgers to make plays in this game; if he does, the Packers can win but if the Redskins can keep him from doing big things, I think the Redskins can win. Indeed, I'll take the Redskins to win it at home.