2022-23 NBA Finals (2 games in)

Heat 93-104 Nuggets

Heat 111-108 Nuggets

Weird coupla games. The Nuggets played their two worst games of the playoffs so far. But in Game One they won handily and in Game Two they had a chance to tie it up at the buzzer. 

The Heat definitely figured some things out in Game Two. On offense: just keep swinging the ball around and the Nuggets will eventually either fall asleep or make a dumb foul. Yeah, the Nuggets suck on defense and if you keep moving the ball, they will falter; oddly, I think this works better without Jimmy Butler on the floor, so this is more a strategy for the Kyle Lowry-Duncan Robinson-Cody Zeller unit, but I think it is a good strategy. And on defense: use the 2-1-2 zone to keep Jokic on an island. I was really surprised at how well it worked, it impeded the flow and kept the Nuggets out of their routine. If the Heat can keep that up, the Nuggets offense becomes quite a bit less than the juggernaut it has been. 

The Nuggets, on the other hand, played badly, still won and almost won again. The Nuggets are a finesse team and they haven't had to deal with the toughness that Miami brings. The Wolves, Suns and Lakers don't play that way, so even when the Nuggets were tested, it wasn't that kind of test. Can they respond to what the Heat are doing? Can the Nuggets keep the ball moving on offense and minimize dumb mistakes on defense? I think the answer to both questions is "YES"!

I've been picking against the Heat all along but I've told myself that I was mistaken about their opponents rather than them. The Heat play tough and they hang around and when they sniff weakness, they pounce, they play opportunistically and wait for the other side to cave. It worked in Game Two but let's be honest: if the Nuggets pull their shit together 60 seconds earlier, they probably would've won the game. In two games the Heat have forced the Nuggets to play horribly but outside of a nice 4th quarter run, the Heat haven't really been able to answer. Can the Heat keep the Nuggets faltering? I don't think so.

I think Jokic realizes his chance to win a title, I think Jamal Murray is ready to get hot, I think KCP, Aaron Gordon, Jeff Green and Bruce Brown are ready to step up and do some real goon squad shit....the one I worry about is Michael Porter but its hard to imagine him playing worse then he did in Game Two and I think he can still get buckets. I think Coach Malone sees what needs to be done (the Nuggets need to play tougher on defense!) and the crew will respond. As much as I love Coach Spo and admire Butler, I don't think the Heat can go up another level and I don't think the Nuggets can be as bad as they've bad so far. I think Jokic and Murray will figure it out (the key is to have a massive lead in the 4th quarter!). 

So while everyone else is zigging, I'm gonna zag (and play right into the same mistake I've been making throughout the playoffs so far): I think the Nuggets will pummel the shit out of the Heat over the next three games. Let me repeat: PUMMEL DA SHIT out of the Heat. I said Nuggets in 5 and I haven't changed my mind. I knew the Heat would get a W, they did it earlier than I thought (*), but I still don't think they're the better team or will outscore the Nuggets again in this series. The Bucks, the Knicks and the Celtics were all ready to lose, I don't think that's true of the Nuggets. I think they've been punched in the face for the first time this post-season and I think they're ready to go full spazz attack on the Heat. 

Yeah, I said it: I like the Nuggets big in each of the next three games. 

(*) Reminds me of Bucks-Bulls in the 1st round last year. That series had gentleman's sweep written all over it, just a matter of whether the Bulls would win Game Three (and make it look like a series) or Game Four (when the Bucks take the night off and let the Bulls have one last W for the home folks). Well, the Bulls won Game Two in Milwaukee and for a minute, everyone wondered what was going on. Then the Bucks laid the smack down and reminded us all that they were way better than the Bulls. I feel like that's gonna happen here, too.

2022-23 NBA Finals

Game Seven: Heat 103-84 Celtics

Jaysun Tatum twisted his ankle on basically the first play of the game and never looked right after that. Jaylen Brown hit some shots but was mostly a turnover machine and no one else get buckets at all. The Heat were resolute and did what they needed to do, but honestly this game was pretty much over well before the end of the 1st quarter.

Last year the Celtics were a disaster for the first coupla months of the season, then the extremely loud teachings of Ime Udoka finally sank in and their defense was phenomenal for a good six months. They blasted their way through the playoffs and ran out of gas in the Finals against the Warriors, who were feeling it. 

In the off-season Coach Udoka was let go due to some kind of improper relationship (does anyone actually know anything about that?) and shortly before opening night, Joe Mazzulla was tabbed to be the head coach. The Celtics started the season strong and though there were doubts about Coach Joe and one bad stretch in March, the Celtics finished 2nd in the East, which is about right. Felt like the Bucks were better but no one else was and the course was set for a Bucks-Celtics East final. Even though the Celtics were sloppy at the ends of games all year long, they won enough to expect a deep run. And after the Bucks got knocked out, the Celtics became the clear favorite even though they dangerously fucked around with the Hawks (woefully outmanned) and the Sixers (Embiid but not much else). Then they fell down 3-0 to the Heat. Showed real grit in Game Four, had a bust out performance in Game Five, got lucky as hell in Game Six (though really were the better team for most of the game) and a historic comeback was well underway. But....didn't happen. The Celtics didn't show, Coach Joe had nothing and the Celtic fans lost interest quick. 

Which brings us to the Finals....

Let's recap the Nuggets' path. They dropped 1 game to the Wolves--a road game they weren't even trying to win and still took to overtime. They dropped 2 games to the Suns--both on the road and both sporting monster performances from Devin Booker and Kevin Durant. And they swept the Lakers--though to be fair, all 4 games were close and the Lakers had an amazing run of their own to get there. 

As for the Heat, they caught the Bucks not ready to play--the Bucks to me looked like they just expected to win regardless of their effort or skill. They quickly wore down the Knicks--a nice team on the rise but the 2nd round was as far as they were ever going to go. They caught the neurotic Celtics unable to consistently find a game plan. 

Do you see my point here? The Heat advanced because they were up against weak teams that weren't ready to win. That description does not fit the Nuggets. Yes, I picked against the Heat 3 straight times and I was wrong every time--but I was wrong about their opponents, not about the Heat. Each time I expected the other team to do more than than they were capable of doing and the Heat punished them (and me). Yeah, that ain't happening this time. Maybe I'm crazy for picking against the Heat again, but the Nuggets are better than all the teams in the East and they're balling like crazy. 

The Heat are shooting the ball out of their minds--can they improve? I don't see how. It'd be amazing if they continued what they were doing, but I don't see them getting better. Their chances of outscoring the Nuggets (especially in Denver) is very small. 

The Heat really only have one chance: if their defense can figure out how to bottle up Jokic, then they might have a chance. Of course, if Jokic is bottled, the Nuggets will still have other scorers and playmakers that can step up. And overplaying on defense will basically remove Bam Adebayo from the offense and/or run down Max Strus, so is that really even a good thing? The Nuggets don't stay cold for very long, so I just don't see anything the Heat can do to win games. 

I might've given the Celtics a puncher's chance in Game One at home, but I give no such chance to the Heat on the road. In fact, I give them no chance in Game Two either. The Heat can perhaps steal a game back home, but after 4 games I expect the Nuggets to be up 3-1 heading back to Denver for Game Five, which I do not expect the Heat to win.

I picked the Celtics over the Heat but I was lukewarm on that pick before the series and gave up on it even after the Celtics won 3 straight to get to Game Seven. The Heat have been great all post-season long, Jimmy Butler and Caleb Martin have both been great, Bam Adebayo and Max Strus and Gabe Vincent and Duncan Robinson have been very good, Kyle Lowry has had effective moments, even Heywood Highsmith had some nice run. They'll be getting Tyler Herro back, but outside of a potential burst in Games Three and/or Four, I don't see how he changes much. 

I haven't said much about the Nuggets because I don't have to. They've been the best team in the league pretty much all season long, Nikola Jokic is the best player in the NBA right now, Jamal Murray is ballin', Micheal Porter is playing the best ball of his life, Kentavius Caldwell-Pope and Jeff Green are the perfect complementary vets and Bruce Brown is arguably the best free agent signing of last summer. Coach Malone has long been under appreciated and he is about to get his due and Denver itself is arguably the single greatest home court advantage in all of American sports. The Heat have been great but the run ends here, all the sad sappy suckers are gone from the schedule. Nuggets in 5.

Pointless NBA Trade Idea

Heat get: Derrick Rose (2yr/$15m), Christian Wood (1yr/$1.6m), Markieff Morris (2yr/$6.5m, player option next season); Pistons get: Meyers Leonard (1yr/$11.2), KZ Okpala (3yr/$4.1m)

I kinda think D-Rose can be great with this fast-moving, no-position Heat team that are well-positioned for the playoffs and Morris should fit, too (though the Heat would probably rather have Marcus Morris, but, hey, they look alike...that's worth something, right?). As for Wood, I've always kinda liked him but it doesn't seem like he's really ever gonna play in this league, so I'm assuming he'd get cut (unless the Heat can make room for him by finally getting rid of Dion Waiters...?). Leonard gives the Heat minutes but...nothing else. I don't know what's up with Okpala, I haven't noticed him getting any playing time or any time in the G-League, so not sure what the Heat think of him.

As for the Pistons...ehhh....man, it doesn't matter what they do. Leonard would give them minutes for the rest of the year and then cap space in the summer. If Okpala is a keeper, then great, they'd keep him. Getting off Rose (Reggie Jax should be on his way back) and Morris would at least give them a little more flexibility in the summer. But...ehhh...it doesn't matter. If Blake Griffin can't play then this squad has absolutely nowhere to go and no money to spend, so....it doesn't matter, nothing matters. That Chicago and Cleveland are both somehow even worse is the only thing that even makes it look like Detroit is competing. Are they better off with Rose and Morris? It doesn't matter.

This isn't exactly the master stroke that puts the Heat over the top (that would have to involve getting rid of James Johnson and/or Waiters), but Rose off the bench and Morris in the rotation just makes them thicker and an even tougher out in the post-season. I don't see this team coming out of the East but I could see them beating somebody they're not supposed to beat. As for the Pistons, it doesn't matter, nothing matters.

2019-20 NBA Pre-season (Southeast Division)

Heat
Out:
Ryan Anderson, Hassan Whiteside, Josh Richardson, Yante Maten, Dwyane Wade, 2022 2nd rd pick, 2025 2nd rd pick, 2026 2nd rd pick, 2023 1st rd pick (top 14 protected)
Tough to lose that 1st rd pick but the rest are better off gone.

Re-signed:
Duncan Robinson (guaranteed final year of his contract; 1yr/$1m), Udonis Haslem (1yr/$2.6m), Derrick Jones Jr (team exercised option; 1yr), Kendrick Nunn (guaranteed final year; 1yr/$150k), Bam Adebayo (team exercised option; 2yr), coach Erik Spoelstra (multi-year extension)
Haslem is still around, huh? I've grown into the notion that sometimes coaches are more effective as players, that paying Haslem $5m to be a coach wouldn't be as effective as $2m to be a player, but I can't help thinking that whatever Haslem does it could be done outside of the salary cap. But I guess they must love him. I'm a big fan of Adebayo, think he's gonna have a big year. And Spoelstra is a great coach, more years is a great thing. The other dudes are reasonably priced.

In:
Jimmy Butler (4yr/$140m), Tyler Herro (4yr/$7.5m guaranteed), KZ Okpala (3yr/$4.2m), Chris Silva, Daryl Macon, Nuggets 2022 2nd rd pick
I think Butler is problematic but this looks to be the ideal spot for him, so hopefully he'll going back to just being a player; if so, the Heat could be really good this year. Herro looks like a stud, looks to fit nicely in that rotation. Okpala is a good value at that pick. Don't know Silva or Macon.

Over/Under (43.5): I'm going over (just barely)
I don't love this team but I think this division is kinda awful, so that alone should net the Heat a pile of W's, and they have a lot of trade options, so I think their flexibility will serve them well this season. If Butler keeps his head on, if Herro challenges for ROY, if Bam blows up, if Dragic has a killer walk year, then the Heat could really be great, even kinda dangerous in the playoffs. But that's a lot of ifs, so I think banking that they'll be good not great is much more reasonable.


Magic
Out:
Timofey Mozgov, Troy Caupain, Jerian Grant
Meh. Nothing to worry about on this side of the ledger.

Re-signed:
Nikola Vucevic (4yr/$100m), Terrence Ross (4yr/$54m), Khem Birch (2yr/$6m), Michaeal Carter-Williams (1yr), Jonathon Isaac (team exercised option; 2yr), Markelle Fultz (team exercised option; 2yr), Mo Bamba (team exercised option; 2yr)
Seems like a lot of money to spend on bringing back guys that got comfortably bounced in the first round last year, but there's a lot of talent here and if it's available to the Magic then they're probably wise to scoop it up (even if they gotta overpay). I kinda love Vucevic, he can be the anchor of a good team. Ross is a reliable veteran swingman. Birch is an underrated scorer down low. MCW can be useful off the bench. I've been skeptical of Isaac and Bamba but they'll play this year so we'll see what they can do. This season for the Magic is all about Fultz: if he can be anywhere close to what he was supposed to be then all of the sudden this looks like a really good team, with flexibility to make a deal.

In:
Al-Farouq Aminu (3yr/$29.2m)
Aminu's on-ball defense is among the best in the league, not a bad player to have around and very affordable, too.

2nd rd draftees, 2-way contracts, Exhibition
Josh Magette, Amile Jefferson
Not sure what depth these guys provide but they're there, so good for them.

Over/Under (41.5): I got them just under
If everything goes right for the Magic, they could be really good next year, they've got all the pieces to really surprise people. That said, it would be a surprise. So while I like them to finish 7th in the East, I don't foresee them going deep in the playoffs (but, again, a shock is on the table for them).


Hawks
Out:
Alex Poythress, Isaac Humphries, Justin Anderson, Taurean Prince, Miles Plumlee, Omari Spellman, Jaylen Adams, 2020 1st rd pick (top 10 protected), 2020 2nd rd pick, 2021 2nd rd pick, 2023 2nd rd pick
Prince and Spellman were nice young players but they were moved for better parts. The others are just others.

Re-signed:
Vince Carter (1yr/$2.6m), John Collins (team exercised option; 1yr), Trae Young (team exercised option; 1yr), Kevin Huerter (team exercised option; 1yr),
I'm cool with bringing back Vince for his farewell tour. As for Collins, Young, and Huerter, they're the future.

In:
Allen Crabbe, Bruno Fernando (3yr/$4.7m), Chandler Parsons, DeAndre Hunter (4yr/$14.5m guaranteed), Damian Jones, Jabari Parker (2y/$13m), Cam Reddish, Evan Turner, 2026 Warriors 2nd rd pick, 2020 Nets 1st rd pick (top 14 protected), Pelicans 2023 2nd rd pick (top 45 protected)
Hunter, Reddish and Fernando are three more rooks for the youth movement. Turner, Crabbe and Parsons will choke the salary cap but just for one year. Parker and Jones are solid vets that could look really good in this rotation.

2nd rd draftees, 2-way contracts, Exhibition
Brandon Goodwin, Charlie Brown
Don't know them (can neither confirm nor deny that Brown is in fact a clown).

Over/Under (33.5): I got them under
I'm a fan of youth movements so I'll be watching this squad. And while I think offensively they might take a real leap this season, I think defensively they're gonna suck pretty bad. This is try-out season for Denadre Bembry and Alex Len (and Jabari Parker, too, for that matter) and they'll get their chances. The future is looking good (and they have Brooklyn's top 15 protected pick coming, too) and next summer they'll have big money to spend (though next summer will not be nearly as exciting as this past summer was). One more year, Hawks fans, then you get start getting your hopes up.


Wizards
Out:
Trevor Ariza, Sam Dekker, Jeff Green, Jabari Parker, Tarik Phillip, Bobby Portis, Chasson Randle, Devin Robinson, Tomas Satoransky, Dwight Howard
That's a lot of names that feel like ought to have contributed more. Ariza was not a good fit for them, I still believe in Dekker (though clearly no one else does), Green is nice but not enough for the Wizards, Parker just didn't have it, Portis wasn't the right fit, Satorasnky is a tough loss for them, Howard was never gonna get it done in Washington. Lot of interesting names but the Wizards are better off without all of them (except maybe Satoransky).

Re-signed:
Thomas Bryant (3yr/$25m), Mo Wagner (team exercised option; 2yr), Troy Brown Jr (team exercised option; 2yr), Bradley Beal (extension; 3yr/$100m)
Signing Beal is a great move (and doesn't make him any less trade-able, by the way), they need him and Wall to make it happen--it's they're only hope. As for the others, well, I dunno, sure why not?

In:
CJ Miles, Davis Bertans, Isaac Bonga, Morittz Wagner, Ish Smith (2yr/$12m), Isaiah Thomas (1yr/$2.3m), Admiral Scofield (3yr/$4.2m), Justin Robinson (3yr/$4.2m), Chris Chiozza, Anzejs Pasecniks, 2022 Lakers 2nd rd pick
Thomas might be fun (or he might done), otherwise I'm not feeling much for these pick-ups. I think this team is brutally bad and no matter what they do, they will probably be pretty awful.

Over/Under (26.5): I got 'em way under
Yeah, this team is not good, not going to be good any time soon. Wall getting healthy and/or a big Beal trade bringing back a crazy haul is all they got to hope for.


Hornets
Out:
Frank Kaminsky, JP Macura, Jeremy Lamb, Kemba Walker, Shelvin Mack, Tony Parker, 2020 2nd rd pick
Yeah, losing all these guys should kill them, right? (Oh, wait, they weren't any good when they had all these guys)

Re-signed:
Willy Hernangomez (team guaranteed final year), Dwayne Bacon (team guaranteed final year)
I'm in on both of these guys, rooting for them to each have a good season.

Newly signed:
PJ Washington (2yr/$7.9m), Terry Rozier (3yr/$57m)
I can totally see PJ being the alpha dog of this team right away, he's big and tough and pretty good at everything on the court, this is a terrible situation for him to start his career but this team should offer him plenty of opportunity. Rozier...$57m...whooch....really? I'm not seeing it. Not seeing this guy as the playmaker that gets it done.

2nd rd draftees, 2-way contracts, Exhibition
Robert Franks, Caleb Martin, Cody Martin (3yr/$4.5m), Jalen McDaniels, Joe Chealey, Kobi Simmons
Curious to see if those Martin twins can get it going in the NBA.

Over/Under (23.5): aw, hell no! No way this team gets to 23 wins!
Yeah, this is not a good squad at all. And they're in with the Wizards and I still don't think they'll get any W's! Keep your eye on PJ Washington, Mikal Bridges and the Martin twins and just pass the time til the $45m worth of Williams, Biyombo and MKG finally become spendable again.

NBA Game of the Week

As a regular blogging possibility, I thought I'd take up a Game of the Week.  I'll set the scene for the match (probably a Saturday or Sunday game), offer notes and/or observations on the gameplay and final stats, give a wrap-up of what went down.  I'd like to see as many teams as possible, although there are/will be teams I don't particularly care to watch, I'll probably get in all 30 at least once.

Bucks (4-5) at Heat (5-4)
While most pundits had the Heat comfortably making the playoffs in the East, just how the Heat would remake themselves post-Lebron was what we'd been waiting to see.  After 9 games it feels like we've seen it: adding Deng and McRoberts to a core of crafty veterans (Chalmers, Andersen, Cole, Haslem), moving the focus of the offense over to Bosh, picking up good rookie minutes from Shabazz and Ennis to go with whatever they can get out of D Wade is how they they plan to restore the production that took its talents back to Lake Erie.  Bosh is playing like an MVP and the rest of the team is doing what it needs to do, probably all comes down to Wade's back and just how far Bosh can go.  It's a long season but they look to be in the hunt for a home playoff series.

The Bucks only won 15 games last year though the roster looked to have enough veteran grit to at least outplay the Sixers and pick up a few W's.  Oh well, they picked up Jabari Parker for their troubles.  Rookie Jabari to go with another year of Giannis and the youth movement is looking pretty good.  Add in Larry Sanders back from injury and that is a formidable front court, especially in the East.  That said, the Bucks could vastly improve this year and still never even sniff a playoff spot.  So far they're hanging, won 5 of their first 9 games, will they hang around .500 all year (which would surely get them into the playoffs)?  I doubt it but we'll see.  Giannis and Jabari are legit, the sooner they figure out how good they are, the sooner they get to getting good.  Can they test the savvy Heat on their homefloor?

I'll take the Heat to handle their business.

1st: Heat 23-19
2nd: Heat 23-19

Heat are without Wade and McRoberts tonight, testing their depth against the upstart Bucks.  Bosh is so impressive, takes over when he wants, can get anywhere on the floor, can score from all over and still be a serious shot blocker at the other end.  I'm impressed with Ennis and Shabazz, both really know how to handle themselves out there, play within themselves and the team concept.  With Wade taking games off (you know he will), the rooks should probably get plenty of playing time.  What's gonna happen to Mario Chalmers?  He's a solid veteran PG by now but it just doesn't feel like he fits the Heat somehow.  The Heat up by 8 at the half,

Bucks are fun to watch, man, just a bunch of dudes running around crazy out there!  Love to watch Giannis attack the rack, his sense of the game continues to mature, his body control is Durant-like.  Jabari looks really confident, good to see, reminds me of a happy smiley Paul Pierce.  There was a great Reddit piece last week about Brandon Knight: a guy broke down every possession and measured Knight's highs and lows.  Basically it was an equal amount of amazing highs and head-scratching lows.  I'm seeing it here tonight: one play he's Jamal Crawford getting shots and setting people up, next minute he looks like Tim Conway on basketball.  His upside is still strong but his downside can be scary.  On the other hand the Wolters-Mayo-Bayless back court was not inspiring confidence.

3rd: Bucks 26-13
4th: Bucks 27-25

Where'd the Heat go?  Bosh really flailed after halftime.  All of a sudden the Heat could not penetrate the Bucks D.  Gotta say: that Sanders-Jabari-Giannis-Bayless-Knight defensive unit is pretty good, a lotta long arms and quick feet out there.  Were the Heat missing Wade's scoring or McRoberts' nifty passing?  Missing both couldn't have been good.  The Bucks limited their turnovers and were able to grind out possessions better than the Heat could.  In the final minutes, Knight nailed three straight 3's (the last one with Bosh in his grill!), kept the Heat from clawing back into it.  Good win for the Bucks, these young kids hang on every moment of goodness.  Now they find themselves 6th in East, gives them something to hold on to.

Disappointing loss for the Heat.  Probably figured a Sunday night game at home against the upstart Bucks was in the bag.  But without the Wade and McRoberts, the lack of depth was exposed.  Now they find themselves tied for 6th with the Bucks, between the Hawks and the Nets.  I fully expect the Heat to win more games than they lose, I'm not quite ready to say that about the Bucks.  The Heat have the proper stars, supporting cast and coach, but they also have 'senior moments' and don't feature a great deal of depth.  The Bucks have exciting youth, which almost never wins in the NBA, but the guard play is going to be spotty all year and they've got a lot of changes to go through, basically a team of trade bait.

Bucks 81-74 Heat

Any insights in the stats?  For the Bucks, Kendall Marshall failed to get off the bench, John Henson only played 3 minutes, Jared Dudley only played 10, Ersan Ilyasova played 12.  Nagging injuries, coach's doghouse, matchup concerns or do these guys represent the first up on the trade block?  Personally I'd keep Henson, think his game is really underrated, but Marshall is too inconsistent, Dudley a bit past his prime and Ilyasova is superfluous if Middleton is gonna get the forward minutes...Do the Bucks want Brandon Knight back next year?....Giannis was only 3-7 from the FT line, hate to see a young player lock in bad habits.

For the Heat: 39 mins for Bosh, 37 for Deng, 35 for Chalmers, only 7 for Haslem (how much are they paying him?  How many years on that deal?)....Not sure that relying on big minutes from Williams or Cole is gonna work out for the Heat in the long run....Bosh really had trouble against that young front court, 2-17 from the floor, couldn't hit the 3 or consistently get to the FT line.  Deng was only 3-11 from the floor....Without Wade to take up some defensive pressure and McRoberts to whip the ball around, those old legs for Miami are gonna have trouble against tough young rosters like the Bucks.  The Heat will get better throughout the season, there's still time to tinker.