2019-20 NBA Pre-Season (Southwest Division)

Rockets
Out:
Trevon Duval, Vince Edwards, Iman Shumpert, Kenneth Faried, Chris Paul, Chris Chiozza, Deyonta Davis, Marko Todorovic, 1st rd draft picks: 2024 (top 4 protected), 2025 (top 10 protected), 2026 (top 4 protected), (OKC gets 1st rd pick swaps for 2021 and 2025),
Paul for Russell Westbrook is a pretty good swap for the Rockets (younger, cheaper, faster, might be a better fit with Harden). They got good minutes out of Faried last year, thought they might keep him around. The other never looked like they were going to work and they don't care about draft picks these days.

Re-signed:
Isaiah Hartenstein (guaranteed his contract beyond 2019), Danuel House (3yr; $11.5m) Austin Rivers (2yr/$4.5m), Gerald Green (1yr), Eric Gordon (4yr/$75.6m), Nene Hilario (2yr/$20m)
All of these deals seems weird to me. They got Rivers to come back at a cheap price but then broke the bank for Gordon...? Green is hurt (may be out for the year) and I'm not sure what Nene gives them at this point. I heard buzz about Hartenstein last summer but not this summer, so it seems weird that they'd re-up him now. House came and went last year, seems odd they'd pay him now.

Newly signed:
Tyson Chandler (1yr/$2.6m), Ben McLemore (2yr/$4m), Thabo Sefolosha (1yr), Jaron Blossongame (1yr), Ryan Anderson, Shamorie Ponds, Chris Clemons, Ray Spalding,
Meh. They're filling out the roster at a reasonable rate, I suppose, but does Chandler really have anything left to give? And don't we already know that McLemore, Sefolosha and Anderon don't have anything left to give? And Blossongame, Ponds and Spalding have already bounced around so much without making a dent. This is a weird supporting cast they've put together.

Over/under (53.5): I got the over
Yeah, I've said nothing good about any of the off-season moves but they still have James Harden, the most efficient player in basketball, and Russell Westbrook, who is a crazy person that doesn't want to lose. Along, with Gordon, Capela, Tucker and whatever those signings give them, that should bring in a lot of W's.


Spurs
Out:
Ben Moore, Dante Cunningham, Donatas Motiejunas, Quincy Pondexter, Davis Bertans, the rights to Nemanja Dangubic
Bertans nails 3's like no one I've ever seen but the rest of these guys are replaceable.

Re-signed:
Rudy Gay (2yr/$32m), Derrick White (team exercised option; 2yr), Lonnie Walker IV (team exercised option; 2yr), Dejounte Murray (4yr/$64m extension)
Gay has had a weird run in his NBA career but I think he's a good fit with the Spurs and even at his age and declining productivity, I think this is still a pretty good deal for the team. I'm cool with nailing down these option years, too, a sign that they've drafted well lately. I would've liked to see Murray blow up before paying him, but I'm confident if the Spurs like him, he must be good.

Newly signed:
Keldon Johnson (4yr/$4m guaranteed), Luka Samanic (2yr/$5.5m), Trey Lyles (2yr/$11m), Quindarry Weatherspoon, Dedric Lawson
I don't know Samanic but he was well regarded in mock drafts all year long. I thought Johnson's performance at Kentucky left a lot to be desired , but the Spurs did well to snag him late in the 1st round. I like Lyles, he's big and versatile, I think he's got a good chance to finally fit in in San Anton. I think they have plans for Weatherspoon and Lawson, curious to see if they get any run.

Over/Under (46.5): I got the under
Just under but I've got them sneaking into the playoffs at #8 (which would be a rematch with the Nuggets in my projection).


Pelicans
Out:
Anthony Davis, Cheick Diallo, Stanley Johnson, Trevon Bluiett, Christian Wood, Elfrid Peyton, Ian Clark, Jordan Crawford, Julius Randle, Solomon Hill, Dairis Bertans
That's an amazing amount of talent leaving here...so why have the Pelicans struggled to make the post-season or do anything once they're there for so many years? Obviously losing Davis is massive but the return was pretty good and losing Hill is a godsend. Randle seems likely to finally find a home with NYK (a dubious achievement), while Johnson, Diallo, Wood, Peyton go off to see if they can actually play in this league.

Re-signed:
Frank Jackson (guaranteed upcoming season), Darius Miller (2yr/$14.5m), Kenrich Williams (guaranteed upcoming season),
Like these guys and the money isn't onerous, so all nice moves.

Newly signed:
Zion Williamson (4yr/$45m), Lonzo Ball, Brandon Ingram, Josh Hart, Derrick Favors, Jaxson Hayes (4yr/$20m), Nickeal Alexander-Walker (4yr/$14.3m), JJ Reddick (2yr/$26.5m), Nicolo Melli (2yr/$8m), Cody Martin (3yr/$4.5m), Josh Gray, Zylan Cheatham, Josh Perkins, Lakers 1st rd picks (2021, 2022, 2025, pick swaps for 2023 and 2024),  2021 2nd rd pick, Warriors 2023 2nd rd pick
Ball is gonna be reborn in New Orleans, Ingram didn't get his extension so he'll be balling all year, Hart will get a chance to just play ball (instead of being a SoCal celebrity), Favors will get a chance to redefine his game, Hayes could be a monster, Alexader-Walker (can we just call him NAW?) may be the surprise ROY candidate this year, Reddick and Melli make an interesting tandem from the perimeter. Oh...but what about Zion? My initial thought was that he would kinda dominate at first (because he's left handed) but then everyone would kinda get used to him by the end of the season; but now that he's starting off injured, I'm thinking the team will have to be careful with him, meaning his rookie year might be kinda sloppy and stop-start. I get that he's exciting as hell but I can't help thinking that he will not have the career longevity that we're all hoping for, the dude is an offensive lineman, that's gonna wreck his knees and ankles over time. I'm rooting for him but he has Kerry Wood written all over him. Or he could be the greatest of all time...you know...either way.

Over/Under (39.5): I'm going under
I think this team will be fun to watch (I love the youth movements, myself) but I don't see them getting a lot of W's. Built for the future not the now.


Mavericks
Out:
Devin Harris, Dirk Nowitzki, Salah Mejri, Trey Burke, Kostas Antetokounpo, Daryl Macon, rights to Deividas Sirvydis, rights to Satnam Singh, 2021 2nd rd pick, 2023 2nd rd pick
Dirk has moved on, long live the Dirk! Now that Luka and Porizingis have arrived, it's time for the team's next act. And Devin Harris is gone, too! I thought they'd bring back Mejri, but the rest are better off elsewhere.

Re-signed:
Ryan Broekhoff (team guaranteed final year), Dwight Powell (3yr/$33m), Maxi Kleber (4yr/$35.9m), Dorian Finney-Smith (3yr/$12m), Kristaps Porzingis (5yr/$158m), JJ Barea (1yr/$2.6m), Justin Jackson (team exercised option; 2yr), Luka Doncic (team exercised option; 2yr)
Okay, I'm good with all of those (though I was surprised to see Barea back from last year's injury already).

In:
Seth Curry (4yr/$32m), Boban Marjanovic (2yr/$7m), Delon Wright,
Okay, good with all of these, too. These all feel like good moves.

2nd rd draftees, 2-way contracts, Exhibition 10, Waiver claims:
Antonius Cleveland, Josh Reaves, Isaiah Roby (3yr/$4.8m), Yudai Baba, Chad Brown,
I don't know any of these guys.


Over/Under (40.5): I'm going under
Close, but I haven't them coming up below the o/u and tied for 9th in the West. I'm looking forward to the Luka-Porzingis pairing and I think the supporting cast is nice but I don't think they're quite ready to challenge for the post-season just yet.  Fun to watch but another year away, I'd say.


Grizzlies
Out:
Tyler Dorsey, Joakim Noah, Justin Holiday, Tyler Zeller, Avery Bradley, CJ Miles, Mike Conley, Julian Washburn, Jevon Carter, Chandler Parsons, Ivan Rabb, Miles Plumlee (and Dwight Howard,  Kyle Korver and Miles Plumlee came and went without suiting up, feels like Iguodala might join that list)
Losing Conley is the end of an era and losing Parsons is the end of an awful era. Otherwise the rest of these guys feel like can be replaced.

Re-signed:
Dillon Brooks (guaranteed contract for upcoming season), Jonas Valenciunas (3yr/$45m), Bruno Caboclo (guaranteed contract for upcoming season),
Valenciunas is a really great int'l player but his NBA days have been kinda hit and miss, but I think he fits the Grizzlies just fine, so good signing for them. Brooks and Caboclo are worth checking out for another year.

In:
Andre Iguodala, Ja Morant (4yr/$39.5m), Josh Jackson, DeAnthony Melton, Grayson Allen, Jae Crowder, Brandon Clarke (4yr/$12m), Solomon Hill, Tyus Jones (3yr/$26.4m), Marko Gaduric (2yr/$5.4m), John Konchar, Dusty Hannah, Bennie Boatright, Suns 2021 and 2022 2nd rd picks, Mavs 2021 and 2023 2nd rd picks, the rights to Satnam Singh
Iguodala has been the center of trade/buyout talk since the moment he arrived but if I were the Grizzlies I'd love for him to stay; but I reckon he'll get traded or waived by February (I'd to like to see him on the Pelicans, actually). Morant looks great in pre-season and has a decent shot at ROY (though I think this team won't be good enough to get him enough attention) and Clarke looks like a good fit for them, too. Jackson, Melton and Allen are reclamation projects, wouldn't be surprised to see all three get re-upped next summer. Crowder is a nice vet, Jones is a solid backup PG, and Hill is still around?

Over/Under (27.5): I'm going way under
This team is a muddle, this season is all about seeing what they've got for the future. I like Morant, Clarke and Melton to shine out and I think Jackson's athleticism and Allen's assholishness should be fun for the fans. I don't see a lot of W's for this team but they've metabolized the worst of their bad contracts, so now is the time to grow.

2019-20 Memphis Grizzlies

2018-19: 33.49
Draft picks: 2

Signed for next season ($119.8m): Mike Conley, Chandler Parsons, Jonas Valenciunas, Avery Bradley, Kyle Anderson, CJ Miles, Jaren Jackson, Brunco Caboclo, Ivan Rabb, Dillon Brooks, Jevon Carter
Not all teams think this way, but I'm thinking...TANK! No chance they'll be any good, so might as well take aim at rock bottom. Conley is the best player and greatest star, I'd offer him to the Knicks for Frank Nkiltina and #3 pick. (Boy, the Knicks off-season plans sure tanked lately, huh? #3 ain't gonna do nothing for an empty Knicks squad, go ahead and redeem it for 2 years of a lovable badass and build out your free agent recruiting around Conley as your PG; then re-sign Deandre Jordan, aim for a guy like Patrick Beverley, then let Durant know you still want him...then just pray and remember that even if you get Durant, you're still gonna suck next year) The Grizzlies get rid of their biggest paycheck, get one last look at a maybe re-signable PG, and then start the re-build around Ja Morant and RJ Barrett to go with Jaren Jackson. Keeping Conley looks swell but he won't be able to win now--especially if the Grizz add Ja Morant to that roster instead of a scorer that can help Conley--so now is the time to move on. I think this is a good contract for trying to swipe a high draft pick.
If the Grizzlies could figure out how to make Chandler Parsons disappear, they would invest in that technology. Worst signing of the last decade? (Hmmm...no, it's still John Wall) Can they swap him for a similar expiring contract and then cut him (like, say straight up for Solomon Hill)?
Valenciunas has opted out of his contract--but I think the idea is that the Grizzlies will give him a raise. I didn't see enough of him to know if he fit with Jackson; if so, go ahead and give him 3 yrs/$60m I guess, but you gotta figure he's a bridge to the future, not the future. (And if he wasn't a fit with Jackson, then let him move on)
I suspect they cut Avery Bradley. I can see Bradley hooking on with a team that dreams of the playoffs (Heat or Hornets), He'd just be killing time in Memphis.
I never quite understood why the Grizzlies gave Kyle Anderson the deal they did but they've got him for three more years. He's their 6th man, might as well play him like that (whether he can do it or not).
CJ Miles is probably looking to play well early on and be trade bait by February. I bet the Grizzlies go into the season expecting him to play regular rotation minutes, perhaps even start at SF. If he's good, they trade him (to Golden State for a late 1st rounder or maybe someone like Utah or Denver), if not then they ride out his final year and let him walk.
Jaren Jackson is the cornerstone of the future (along with soon-to-be-picked Ja Morant), give him however many minutes he wants.
I can see them letting Caboclo go but he is still cheap and available for many minutes (and the Grizzlies aren't looking to win games, so...).
I thought Ivan Rabb was gonna be a better pro, I think it's strange how far he...never really got. But he is still young, cheap and he's already in house, so I reckon they'll give him some 2nd string run next season.
Dillon Brooks is still an intriguing young player. He missed all of last year (all of it?) but was promisingly competent in his rookie season. Still young, still intriguing, if he fits with Morant, then he's a keeper.


This summer's free agents: Justin Holiday, Delon Wright, Joakim Noah, Tyler Dorsey
I don't see any of those dudes coming back with Memphis next season. Maybe Holiday but I think he can hook on with a better squad.


Draft: Oh, they're taking Ja Morant (Murray State) at #2. Zion is clearly #1, Morant is clearly #2, I don't see any movement on those two picks before draft day. Morant is an exciting ball handler, play maker and I think he'll grow into a reliable scorer, too (reminds me of Jrue Holiday: pretty good at everything, not bad at anything, maybe even a better athlete than Holiday). And to do it properly he'll need playing time, so it's time for Conley to go.


Next year's lineup:
PG Morant, SG Brooks, SF Parsons, PF Jackson, C Valenciunas with Anderson, Miles, and Caboclo off the bench. That's pretty thin--and that's without Conley or Bradley, both of whom I think will be gone. I don't see any lineup available to them that wins games next season, which is why I'd go ahead and start thinking tank right away. Take what you can get for Conley, Bradley and Parsons (which might not be much), start building around Morant and Jackson and hope the new coach (Taylor Jenkins) is a genius that is loved by his new young stars and think only about trades that involved bringing back 1st round picks.

Pointless Trade Idea

Grizzlies get Kevin Martin (2 yrs/$14.3m (next year player option), Shabazz Muhammad (2 yrs/$5.1m); Wolves get Jeff Green (1 yr/$9.5m), James Ennis (2 yrs/$1.8m), a 2016 2nd round pick.

Watching the Wolves, I can't help thinking that Kevin Martin is just in the way of the maturation process for the young guys, he's not (yet) the type of veteran that wants to coach young players. He's still a decent scorer off the bench and if the Wolves think they can make the playoffs (not so crazy, those last two spots will have a lot of competition), perhaps holding on to Martin is the proper move. But a confident scorer off the bench is exactly what the Grizzlies need and exactly what they don't get from Jeff Green. Muhammad, too, is a conscious-free shooting machine, not exactly money with the shot but the kind of guy that should take to the hunker-down mentality of the Grizzlies. If Muhammad is gonna make it in the NBA, I don't think its in Minnesota, it could be in Memphis, where the do-your-job ethic might make a for-real player out of him.

Watching the Grizzlies, I can't help thinking Jeff Green is soooooo not what they need. Every once in a while he shines out but for the most part he hides from responsibility, which just doesn't match the rest of that team. In Minnesota, he would be in a position where he can let the game come to him without much pressure and every now and then can have a hero game. Ennis adds to the youth movement but comes with a little more intensity, he's had moments but he's also been bounced around. I wouldn't anticipate him getting big minutes in Minnesota but he also wouldn't have the baggage of Muhammad.

The Wolves shed 2 years of Martin and Muhammad for 1 year of Green and a flyer on another young (cheap) player in Ennis. This year for the Wolves is about playing time for Towns, Wiggins, Payne, Bjelica and LaVine; Martin gets in the way and increasingly Muhammad looks like the odd man out. The Grizzlies add one reliable scoring vet and an intriguing young player to add to the core of a solid playoff squad while giving up only a maddening vet and a youngster that wasn't gonna play anyway. The Grizzlies are taking on more reward than risk as Martin is still better than Green and Muhammad could be good; the Wolves are really just clearing the decks for this year and next. For that reason I'd suggest the Grizzlies throw in a 2nd round pick as well: Martin is bigger help now than Green, Muhammad has more potential than Ennis. Again, though, these two teams might be fighting each other for a playoff spot so this deal only makes sense when the Wolves have decided that the playoffs this year is out of reach. Come February this could be a do-able deal.