Showing posts with label draft. Show all posts
Showing posts with label draft. Show all posts

Friday, June 21, 2019

2019 NBA Draft Reactions (46-60)

46) Orlando Magic -- Talen Horton-Tucker (Iowa State)
2nd round grade--and even then appeared rather late in the process. Seems like a G-Leaguer.

47) New York Knicks -- Ignas Brezdeikas (Michigan)
The Wolverines were loaded with 2nd rd talent, not surprised to see him going here. (Kings traded #47 to the Knicks for #55)

48) LA Clippers -- Terence Mann (Florida State)
Consistent 2nd round grade all season long, on the rise in the last month or so. Not bad.

49) San Antonio Spurs -- Quinndary Weatherspoon (Missouri State)
Don't know him.

50) Utah Jazz --Jarrell Brantley (College of Charleston)
Don't know him.  Another one that isn't on my eligible players list. (Pacers traded #50 to Jazz for a future 2nd rd pick)

51) Boston Celtics -- Tremont Waters (LSU)
Hmmm, scouted LSU and went with Waters over Naz Reid? Well, the Celtics need PG's, so worth a try, I guess, though this seems like G-League depth.

52) Charlotte Hornets -- Jalen McDaniels (San Diego State)
Seems like a decent big body down low.

53) Utah Jazz --Justin Wright-Foreman (Hofstra)
Senior from Hofstra? Okay, I'm ready for it.

54) Philadelphia 76ers -- Marial Shayok (Iowa State)
Another one I don't even see on the eligible player list.

55) New York Kicks -- Kyle Guy (Viriginia)
Great get at #55. The next Alonzo Trier?

56) Brooklyn Nets -- Jaylen Hands (UCLA)
He's had moments of buzz this season, not a bad pick at #56.

57) Atlanta Hawks -- Jordan Bone (Tennessee)
Love this guy, yet another solid pick for the Hawks!

58) Golden State Warriors -- Miye Oni (Yale)
Warriors went way far off the menu tonight. Either the scouts are geniuses or they were just looking busy on draft night.

59) Toronto Raptors -- Dewan Hernandez (Miami)
Don't know him.

60) Sacramento Kings -- Vanja Marinkovic (Serbia)
Didn't exactly burn up the mock drafts, though he was in there. (Vlade Divac's nephew?)

Thursday, June 20, 2019

2019 NBA Draft Reactions (31-45)

31) Brooklyn Nets -- Nicolas Claxton (Georgia)
Started taking off not long before the draft, graded low 1st rd but early 2nd rd is probably the right place for him. Feels like the Nets got a steal at #31

32) Miami Heat -- KZ Okpala (Stanford)
Wow, he was top ten graded for parts of this season, this is a great get for the Heat. (Pacers traded #32 to the Heat for three 2nd rd picks)

33) Boston Celtics -- Carsen Edwards (Purdue)
My man! This is the guy the Celtics wanted the whole time (kinda like when the Rockets got Montrezl Harrell in the 2nd rd). Great pickup for the Celtics, Edwards has the chance to be something interesting.

34) Atlanta Hawks -- Bruno Fernando (Maryland)
Again! Top ten talent that fell a long way. Excellent night for the Hawks! (Sixers traded #34 to the Hawks for #57, a 2020 2nd rd pick, a 2023 2nd rd pick)

35) New Orleans Pelicans -- Marcos Louzada Silva (Brazil)
Seems like a Spurs player, I like it!

36) Charlotte Hornets -- Cody Martin (Nevada)
Had some exciting years with the Wolfpack, I think he'll get to play with the Hornets.

37) Detroit Pistons -- Deividas Syrvidis (Lithuania)
Seemed like a natural for the new-look Mavs but he's off to Detroit. (Mavs traded #37 to the Pistons for #45 and two future 2nd rd picks)

38) Chicago Bulls -- Daniel Gafford (Arkansas)
Hmmm, the last time the Bulls drafted an under appreciated Razorback (Bobby Portis) didn't work out that great. Oh well. I liked Portis and I like Gafford, too, good pick for the Bulls.

39) Golden State Warriors -- Alen Smailagic (Serbia)
Don't know him. I figured the Warriors would be active in the 2nd round but I'm not sure about the Warriors scouting, feels like there are interesting prospects out there and the Warriors keep going off the board. (Pelicans traded #39 to the Warriors for two future 2nd rd picks)

40) Sacramento Kings -- Justin James (Wyoming)
No idea who this guy is. I don't even see him on the list of eligible players!

41) Golden State Warriors -- Eric Paschall (Villanova)
Now here's a 1st rd talent that fell and the Warriors were there to grab him.

42) Washington Wizards -- Admiral Schofield (Tennessee)
Love this pick, getting a gritty hard-working guy at #42 is good value--and they get Jonathon Simmons to fill out the bench, too. (Sixers traded #42 and Jonathon Simmons to the Wizards for cash)

43) Minnesota T-Wolves -- Jaylen Nowell (Washington)
Don't know him.

44) Miami Heat -- Bol Bol (Oregon)
There he is. The whispers have not been good lately but #44 seems a reasonable spot to take a flyer on a guy that might have top ten talent. (Heat traded Bol Bol to the Nuggets for a future 2nd round pick and cash)

45) Dallas Mavericks -- Isiah Roby (Nebraska)
They traded away a full-on Lativian gangbanger for a kid from Nebraska? Intriguing....

2019 NBA Draft Reactions (15-30)

15) Detroit Pistons --Sekou Doumbouya (France)
Interesting character: youngest in the draft (so he's green) but he's been playing pro since he was 15 (so he's a grizzled vet). Hey, man, Pistons are a good spot for him, he'll play and develop and get just enough edge-of-playoff reps to train his young mind for the grind. I like this pick for the Pistons.

16) Orlando Magic -- Chuma Okeke (Auburn)
I liked Okeke at Auburn, tough guy (tore his ACL, so will we see him this year?), plays smart down low. This is much higher than his projection but since he is hurt this is actually probably where he belongs. Weird that Orlando would take a red-shirt this high, they must love him. (Sneaky 2020-2021 ROY pick)

17) New Orleans Pelicans -- Nickeill Alexander-Walker (Virginia Tech)
(Seems like Orlando got these picks got out of order: I think I'd rather see Okeke in New Orleans and Alexander-Walker in Indiana. Oh well) He's a savvy player, can shoot the 3, could be good right away, although the Pelicans have a logjam at ballhandling PG, don't they? (Hmmm, is he a Jrue Holiday replacement or the low-pressure understudy?)

18) Indiana Pacers -- Gogo Bitadze (Republic of Georgia)
Big body. All I know about him is that classic picture of him sharing media day with Zion Williamson (and, well, Zion getting 99% of the attention). Pacers love their big foreigners, looking forward to see how he plays (Summer League?).

19) San Antonio Spurs -- Luka Samanic (Croatia)
He was graded as a 2nd rounder but if the Spurs like him, I bet he can play. Is he gonna be a Porzigis-type?

20) Philadelphia 76ers -- Matisse Thybulle (Washington)
Pac-12 senior that averaged less than 10ppg and had a 2nd round grade throughout the season? I'm a little skeptical but supposedly he's gonna be a great defender. But pairing another non-shooter with Ben Simmons? Still skeptical. (Celtics traded #20 to the Sixers for #24 and #34. I thought the Celtics would take Keldon Johnson here, maybe at 22)

21) Memphis Grizzlies -- Brandon Clarke (Gonzaga)
All around good player, solid athlete, shot blocker. Shweet!  I like this pick. Throw him in with the new-look squad, see if he's got grit and grind. (Thunder traded #21 to the Grizzlies for #23 and a future 2nd rd pick)

22) Boston Celtics -- Grant Williams (Tennessee)
I like Williams (Vols were fierce last season) but I think this is a little high for him and seems like the Celtics are already stacked at forward so I'm not sure this is the best fit. I think he could be good and the Celtics have a ton of picks, so worth a flyer, I reckon.

23) Oklahoma City Thunder -- Darius Bazley (USA)
Don't know him, coming straight out of high school, which is where they found Terrence Ferguson. Is he a Steven Adams replacement? (I can see this guy blowing up Summer League)

24) Phoenix Suns -- Ty Jerome (Virginia)
The Suns need a proper PG (Celtics do, too, a little surprised they shipped him out), Jerome is probably just the first PG they should be looking for tonight. He's from UVA so you know he'll be a hard-nosed defender, we'll see if he can keep up with the NBA pace. (Celtics traded #24 and Aron Baynes to the Suns for the Bucks 2020 1st rd pick--wow, good deal for the Suns: a big body, reasonably priced vet and a promising PG that's better than what they would've gotten with the pick they traded)

25) Portland Trail Blazers -- Nassir Little (North Carolina)
Wow, lottery grade most of the year (though perhaps overrated a bit), slipped a long way on draft night. Good get for the Blazers, is he a Rodney Hood replacement? (Bet he's gonna ball out in Summer League!)

26) Cleveland Cavaliers -- Dylan Windler (Belmont)
Big kid that can shoot off the cut, if he can find his space gotta figure Sexton and Garland will find him for buckets.

27) LA Clippers --Mfiondu Kabengele (Florida State)
Nephew of Dikembe Mutombo, so he's really tall and can block shots. I don't know him, there are questions about his lateral quickness but can shoot 3's. Clippers traded up for him, guess they just want Mutumbo showing up at their games. (Nets traded #27 to the Clippers for #56 and Sixers 2020 1st rd pick)

28) Golden State Warriors -- Jordan Poole (Michigan)
Don't know him. The Warriors must like him because they need this pick to play next year, so whatever they see in Poole, I have to assume they got the guy they wanted. Kinda thought Bol Bol (Oregon) was a good fit here or even Keldon Johnson (Kentucky) as a part-time Klay replacement, a little surprised they went off the board, they really need every reasonably reliable low-priced warm body they can get.

29) San Antonio Spurs -- Keldon Johnson (Kentucky)
The Spurs could use perimeter shooting but I'm not sure KJ is the guy for them (I thought Suns, Celtics and Clippers were better landing spots for Johnson but I guess those teams did not agree). If the Spurs think he's a fit, then I reckon he'll be a fit (though I wouldn't be surprised if his rookie year is more G-League than San Antone).

30) Cleveland Cavaliers -- Kevin Porter Jr (Southern Cal)
Up and down in his one season at USC, talented but raw. The Cavs have completely overhauled their PG and SG positions. These kids'll get to play, looking forward to see if they're any good. (Pistons traded #30 to the Cavs for 2020 2nd rd pick, 2021 2nd rd pick, 2023 2nd rd pick, 2024 2nd rd pick and cash)

2019 NBA Draft Reactions (1-14)

1) New Orleans Pelicans -- Zion Williamson (Duke)
I don't love him quite as much as the rest of the world does (I'm totally ready to be proven wrong!), but he is clearly the #1 player, #1 prospect, #1 potential badass in this draft. Pelicans are gonna be high in my League Pass rankings next year!

2) Memphis Grizzlies -- Ja Morant (Murray State)
Conley's out, it's Morant's team now. While I'm not a huge fan of bringing in Crowder and Korver, it's nice to start Morant off with a coupla solid vets. I don't expect the Grizz to be good any time soon, so no pressure on him.

3) New York Knicks -- RJ Barrett (Duke)
Was the #1 prospect coming out of high school last year and struck me as the more ready-to-go player on the Duke roster last year. Hard to tell what the Knicks will be adding this summer but the Knicks have a good chance to be wildly better than last year (well, I mean, that shouldn't be that hard). And since I love youth movements, looks like I'll be watching a lot of Knicks this season.

4) Atlanta Hawks -- Deandre Hunter (Virginia)
So they traded up for Hunter. UVA (champs!) has steadily produced disciplined smart players over the years and if Hunter plays smart, he'll be a good foil for Trae Young. Seems like he'll fit in nicely between Huerter and Spellman, the Hawks got the youth movement filled out now--and they're still adding.

5) Cleveland Cavaliers -- Darius Garland (Vanderbilt)
(The Celtics willing to take back JR Smith for this pick?) They say Garland's the next Kyrie Irving (hopefully just on the court), meaning great hands, quick shot, relentlessly attacks the basket. The Cavs just brought in Collin Sexton, can he move to SG?

6) Minnesota T-Wolves -- Jarrett Culver (Texas Tech)
(Wolves just traded for this pick, are they trading it away?) Kinda thought they'd take Coby White, so is this pick future trade bait? Or is Robert Covington the next trade for the Wolves? All I saw of Culver was in the tourney, he played well but he kinda disappeared from time to time, but if he can be a reliable scorer Culver could be a sneaky ROY candidate.

7) Chicago Bulls -- Coby White (North Carolina)
Uhhhh....*sigh*....I don't think this is a good fit. White has great speed but he feels like a project to me and the Bulls are a project team who probably ought to fill out scoring and defense now and just pick up a veteran PG. But, never know, White could be the spark that raises this team up.

8) New Orleans Pelicans -- Jaxson Hayes (Texas)
Thought going for Cam Reddish was the move here, but the Pelicans went for size instead. He's a great finisher around the rim, seems like a nice fit with Zion and Lonzo. I didn't see this one coming but could be a real upside addition for the Pelicans. League Pass!

9) Washington Wizards -- Rui Hachimura (Gonzaga)
Ooh, this is a strangely good pick. I like Hachimura, can score from inside and outside and I like his steady improvement throughout college. Wizards are a dumpster fire so not sure this is the best move for his career but I think he'll play for them right away.

10) Atlanta Hawks -- Cam Reddish (Duke)
Nice! I feel like he's the guy they wanted all along so to pick him up at #10 is a beautiful thing. Reddish kinda disappeared from time to time, but he's a pro now and Trae Young will give him touches. To add Hunter and Reddish on the same night is rocketing Hawks up my League Pass rankings!

11) Phoenix Suns -- Cameron Johnson (North Carolina)
Hmmmm....he topped out at #24 in the mock draft I saw and was most recently a 2nd round projection. So...no idea what the Suns had in mind here. Big for a SF, if he can score (good 3P% in NCAA) he'll get some run, I guess. The Suns did pick up Saric, so while I don't see Johnson making an impact in that lineup, he can take his time developing throughout his rookie year. This is a weird pick.

12) Charlotte Hornets -- PJ Washington (Kentucky)
Hmmm, I figured they'd go for a Tarheel here (like Nassir Little) but I watched a lot of PJ and I liked him a lot and I think he'll be a better pro than a collegian. His comp, and this will be tough to pull off, is Draymond Green: no-nonsense big man who can handle, pass, shoot pretty well but more than anything he can be the guy in control. If the Hornets lose Kemba they'll need a leader and I think PJ can be that guy.

13) Miami Heat -- Tyler Herro (Kentucky)
Herro was nice all year long but played really well in the tourney (in that sense he reminds me of Devin Booker at UK, too, so maybe Herro blows up). Smart kid, bigger than you think, moves well, he'll give the Heat some perimeter shooting. Heat need everything, so Herro's not a bad fit here.

14) Boston Celtics -- Romeo Langford (Indiana)
Nice pick! Langford had been dropping but I was never sure why. If he's healthy I think he'll play hard and score right away (sneaky ROY pick). I think of him as an SG more than a PG, so he might not be a Celtic by the end of the summer because they've got moves to make.

Thursday, June 21, 2018

2018 NBA Draft Reactions (15-30)

15) Washington Wizards -- SG Troy Brown (Oregon)
I would've thought a big man like Robert Williams was a better fit here or at least a more defensive minded SG like Zhaire Smith, but if Brown can score he'll get in the rotation.

16) Phoenix Suns -- SG Zhaire Smith (Texas Tech)
Another good addition for the Suns. They needed some defensive toughness and they added that in the front and back court with their first two picks.

17) Milwaukee Bucks -- SG Donte DiVincenzo (Villanova)
Bucks are known for gambling in the draft, I would've thought they'd reach for unknown Anfernee Simmons or a foreigner like Dznan Musa. But they could use wing scoring, I suppose. If he can score off the bench, he'll fit in just fine. (I'm more intrigued by Lonnie Walker, though)

18) San Antonio Spurs -- SG Lonnie Walker (Miami)
Either a complement or replacement for Kawhi. Don't think of the Spurs as a youth movement kinda team but Kawhi's on the table, Rudy Gay is already gone, Tony Parker is probably on the way out and they may be looking to replace Danny Green and/or Pau Gasol, too. The Spurs are in flux for the first time in 20 years, Walker may well get a lot of playing time.

19) Atlanta Hawks -- SG Kevin Huerter (Maryland)
The Hawks have drafted big guys recently, this draft is all about re-working the front court. Trae Young is a smaller guy but Huerter adds size on the wing. The Hawks have two new playmakers to lead them forward (oh, and Dennis Shroeder is definitely available now....for the Knicks?).

20) Minnesota Timberwolves -- SG Josh Okogie (Georgia Tech)
Seems like a reach but if he's the guy they want, then it's a good pick. I thought they might go for a PG here (kinda thought Elie Okobo might be their guy) but if Okogie can score or play hardcore defense, then he'll add to the rotation (if Thibs starts playing rookies).

21) Utah Jazz -- SG Grayson Allen (Duke)
Okay. I thought they might go for size (say, Robert Williams) but adding toughness on the wing is a good move for the Jazz. They're looking for 3-and-D work and Allen is a good choice here.

22) Chicago Bulls -- SF Chandler Hutchinson (Boise State)
I don't know Hutchinson but size-wise he seems a perfect fit for the Bulls youth movement.

23) Indiana Pacers -- PG Aaron Holiday (UCLA)
Pacers are kinda PG-heavy (I would've though Khyri Thomas was the guy here) but I like Holiday's potential so the Pacers probably did well to draft the best available.

24) Portland Trail Blazers -- SG Anfernee Simmons (high school)
I see him listed as an SG but that 3rd string PG slot is open for the Blazers, if Simmons can handle the ball he'll get minutes. I didn't see this experimental pick as the natural move for the Blazers (they could be losing Nurkic and Ed Davis, I expected Robert Williams to go here) but Simmons is intriguing and since they may be parting ways with either Lillard or McCollum (I wouldn't trade either but that's the buzz), seems like they need some front court excitement.

25) LA Lakers -- F Moritz Wagner (Michigan)
I was impressed with Wagner's run in the tournament this season, wondered why the buzz about him wasn't higher. The Lakers have traditionally drafted well in this area of the 1st round, I think this is another good move. The Lakers still have a lot of moves to make but I think Wagner has a good chance of scoring at the next level and working his way into the Laker rotation.

26) Philadelphia Sixers -- PG Landry Shamet (Wichita State)
I like Shamet's potential, though the Sixers are loaded with PG's now (uhhh, Fultz on the way out?).

27) Boston Celtics -- C Robert Williams (Texas A&M)
Williams fell a lot further than I thought he would but the Celtics did well to grab the best available (although I would still expect them to bring back Aron Baynes).

28) Golden State Warriors -- G Jacob Evans (Cincinnati)
I figured this was Gary Trent Jr, but Evans is a great pick here. Watch out, league, I think Evans is gonna be good and in Golden State he'll have plenty of time to develop his game. I thought they might trade this pick for multiple 2nd rounders but I think Evans is exactly the guy they need.

29) Brooklyn Nets -- SF Dzanan Musa (Croatia)
I'm curious to see Musa, he was top ten-ish in last summer's mock drafts, so he must have some skills. The Nets need everything so he'll have plenty of playing time if he's ready now.

30) Atlanta Hawks -- PF Omari Spellman (Hawks)
Another big body to throw in the Hawks youth movement. Villanova doesn't quite have the pedigree of, say, Duke or Kansas, but it's getting there and betting on winners in college is not a bad way to finish off the 1st round. Been a good night for the Hawks.

2018 NBA Draft Reactions (1-14)

1) Phoenix Suns -- C Deandre Ayton (Arizona)
Considering all the confusion this year, the draft starts off exactly as it seemed like it would. The Suns have one more year of Tyson Chandler at center but Ayton will undoubtedly get plenty of playing time right away. The Suns are now building around Devin Booker and Ayton with two more years of figuring what they've got in Marquese Chriss and Dragan Bender. Should be fun to watch but I'm guessing the Suns will be in play for #1 again next year.

2) Sacramento Kings -- PF Marvin Bagley (Duke)
I think passing on Doncic was a mistake but the Kings are used to mistakes. I like Bagley and a lineup of De'Aron Fox, Buddy Hield, Justin Jackson/Harry Giles, Willie Cauley-Stein and Bagley will be fun but, like Phoenix, should put them in line for a top five pick again next year (though they don't have any picks next year--doh!). They do still have a ton of money to spend and should have even more next summer, so things are looking up in Sacto (and I'm a sucker for youth movements, so I'll probably be watching a lot of the Kings next year).

3) Atlanta Hawks -- F Luka Doncic (Real Madrid)
They got themselves the best player in the draft, so already a good night for the Hawks. But with two more 1st round picks this night could really take off for them. But, a running theme already, the Hawks are probably the odds-on favorite for the #1 pick next year.

4) Memphis Grizzlies -- PF Jaren Jackson (Michigan State)
Jackson strikes me as a perfectly okay player and while perhaps they could've reached for higher upside at this pick, with Marc Gasol and Mike Conley (and Chandler Parsons, too, right?), the Grizzlies are expecting to be good right away. A solid pro who will contribute right away without pulling focus is probably the right move for them (and clearly no one was biting on that god awful Parsons contract). I'm not sure I'm ready to anoint the Grizzlies a Western playoff team just yet, but they are certainly way ahead of the three previous teams.

5) Dallas Mavericks -- PG Trae Young (Oklahoma)
I wasn't as impressed with Young as most and since they just drafted Dennis Smith last year, I think I would've suggested trading back and aiming for Kevin Knox or Mikal Bridges. I expect the Mavs to make a run at Demarcus Cousins (how about Danny Green and Thaddeus Young instead?), so they'll be a brand new team next year. If Young hits his high end estimate, the Mavs might be in the post-season next year.

6) Orlando Magic -- C Mo Bamba (Texas)
Orlando needs everything and it could be that Bamba is DPOY-kinda talent, but they really could've used a playmaker (like Trae Young). (Hmmmm....since the Mavs were rumored to be in on Bamba, could there be a trade coming up?) The Magic need everything and now...they still do. The Magic still have moves to make this summer but I'd be surprised to see them outside of the top 6 next year.

7) Chicago Bulls -- PF Wendell Carter (Duke)
Figured they'd take Michael Porter here but Carter is a solid down-low presence that they can slot in after Robin Lopez moves on next summer. The Bulls are slowly getting better but they've still got a logjam of guards to sluice through. Carter should fit right into the rotation going forward, not a bad pick.

8) Cleveland Cavs -- PG Collin Sexton (Alabama)
I'm not a huge fan of Sexton (I would've taken a chance on Porter first) but its all about what Lebron wants. I don't know who Lebron likes but I got a feeling that George Hill is someone he does not like, so this is a move away from him. If Sexton can play and put up with Lebron, then he's got a good chance at success.

9) New York Knicks -- SF Kevin Knox (Kentucky)
I watched a lot of Knox last year: pro) a helluva scorer and ballhandler (not unlike Jaysun Tatum); con) he's a bit of a reluctant player, not one to step up and lead. So while I think he'll be a fine scorer in the league, a leaderless dysfunctional squad like the Knicks in one of the planet's largest media markets is probably not the best fit for him. Oh well, I think he'll be a good player (maybe better on his next team).

10) Philadelphia Sixers -- SF Mikal Bridges (Villanova)
If he can score from the wing, he can be a star right away in Philly; if he's a tenacious defender, he can be a star right away in Philly. Either way, if he can play, this is a great pick.

11) Charlotte Hornets -- PS Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
They got rid of Dwight Howard earlier in the week, so it's already time for a celebration in Charlotte. If they move on from Kemba Walker, too (though the rumored move to Cleveland might be off since they took Sexton), then SGA could fit right in as their primary ball handler. I watched a lot of SGA and I gotta say, I found him tentative and kinda uncreative; he gets to the basket well but isn't a great shooter. I'd call him a lesser version of De'Aron Fox or Dennis Shroeder. The Hornets still have a bloated payroll with not enough W's, I expect them to be a lottery team next year outside of serious wheeling and dealing this summer.

12) LA Clippers -- SF Miles Bridges (Michigan State)
13) LA Clippers -- PG Jerome Robinson (Boston College)
Considering Coach Doc isn't likely to give big minutes to rookies, these guys both strike me as long shots to get much run. But both these guys are good young players so they should find their way into the rotation eventually (wouldn't be surprised to see either/both of these guys getting traded).

14) Denver Nuggets -- SF Michael Porter (Missouri)
He probably should've have fallen this far but he has back issues (and is a notorious douchebag), so the Nuggets scored themselves either the steal of the draft or the booby prize. If the Nuggets move on from Faried, Plumlee and/or Wilson Chandler, Porter gets plenty of time (and saves them a ton of money). Everyone is Denver has their fingers crossed, Porter could be the piece that gets them back into the playoffs.

Saturday, July 8, 2017

NBA Draft (the 2nd rd teams)

Okay, I don't watch a lot of NCAA b-ball and I didn't give the mocks as much time as usual this year. This won't take long.

Pelicans: #31 Frank Jackon (Duke)
Combo guard, if he can score, he can play big minutes as a Rook in New Orleans. Probably  D-Leaguer but seriously, if he can score, they'll play him.

Suns: #4 Josh Jackson (Kansas),#32 Davon Reed (Miami), #54 Alec Peters (Valparaiso)
I thought Josh Jackson was the best prospect in the entire draft, the Suns are already winners. As for Reed and Peters, they both seem like swing forward-types, which is pretty much the entire Suns roster (hmmm, kinda reminds me of the Pitino Celtics); if they can score or be killer wing defenders, they'll get some run.

Magic: #6 Jonathon Isaac (Florida St),#33 Wesley Iwundu (Kansas St)
Isaac has great upside, sounds like Iwundu is the poor man's Jonathon Isaac. I kinda like the move, I like the thought of taking two similar prospects and seeing if you can develop both. Orlando is a bit of grease fire for the foreseeable future, minutes is all they have to offer, so I expect to see a fair amount of Isaac, wouldn't be surprised to see Iwundu.

Grizzlies: #35 Ivan Rabb (Cal)
Good get for the Grizz. Rabb has grit and grind all over him, too bad he doesn't get to apprentice with Zebo, but he'll be taking his spot. I watched Rabb with the U-17 USA team and thought he was a stone cold badass (good with the ball, strong, smart) kinda shocked to see him now as #35 as a Sophomore! Hey, man, he was at the top of his class not that long ago, if Coach Fiz can reach him, he may well be the next Draymond Green.

Celtics: #3 Jaysun Tatum (Duke), #37 Semi Ojeleye (SMU),#53 Kadeem Allen (Arizona)
The Celtics have well-stocked their D League affiliations over the years, I expect Ojeleye and Allen to get some run in the minor leagues (not a bad spot for them probably) .

Warriors: #38 Jordan Bell (Oregon)
Apparently the Warriors loved this game, think he's the next Draymond Green. Good luck with that. (If he could be the next Klay Thompson, he'll spend more time in a Warrior uniform)

Clippers: #39 Jawun Evans (Oklahoma St),#48 Vlatko Cancar (Slovenia)
Don't know either of these guys, but I suspect Evans gets no run with Doc's Clippers no matter how good he is or how bad they need him. As for Cancar I assume he's a Euro stash....that also won't get run with Doc's Clippers next year.

Hornets: #12 Malik Monk (Kentucky), #40 Dwayne Bacon (Florida St)
Monk will have great nights (crowd favorite, mad filler-upper, I fully expect him to break a single game record for 3PM or 3PA at least in his rookie year) and off nights (1-3, 1 assist, 1 turnover in 28 minutes); he'll get ROY consideration but he'll also drive Hornets fans crazy. Bacon was projected into the 1st round earlier in the year, not sure why he fell off. Could be a steal at #40. If he can play the Josh McRoberts role MJ has long coveted, he'll get some minutes.

Rockets: #43 Isaiah Hartenstein (Germany),#45 Dillon Brooks (Oregon)
Germany and Oregon are probably strangely similar producers of basketball talent. I suspect Brooks is a D League lifer and Hartenstein gets traded before ever suiting up for the Rockets.

Knicks: #8 Frank Nkilitina (France), #44 Damyean Dotson (Houston), #58 Ognjen Jaramaz (Serbia)
NYK is in need of athletes that don't speak English, I expect Nikitlina to be pretty good but woefully underappreciated at the same time. Dotson might play just because the Knicks are so thin for now. Jaramaz will be along a few years with Nikilitine either washes out or moves on.

Nets: #57 Aleksander Vezenia (Bulgaria)
One of those I remember more from last year's mocks than this year's. Big kid, right? Down low scorer. Hey, the Nets need anything and everything, I assume he's stashed for 2-3 years (wouldn't be surprised seeing him kicking ass in a Spurs uniform about a year after you've forgotten he exists).

Monday, July 3, 2017

NBA Draft (the 1st round teams)

I did the first 14 picks in the previous post. This time I'll look at the next 15 teams that had 1st round picks. Then I'll do 2nd round in a future post.

Kings: #5 De'Aaron Fox, #15 Justin Jackson (North Carolina), #20 Harry Giles (Duke), #34 Frank Mason (Kansas)
I thought Jackson was one of the underappreciated gems of NCAA basketball last year, thought he would've slid right into a Brad Stevens team (thought #3 might've been used for a calculated move back in the draft). And Harry Giles on some boards was the #1 prospect going into NCAA just last year; are we to assume that Giles is washed up because he had a so-so year at Duke? To quote Homer Simpson: he could be bigger than curly fries! I think at #20 Giles is an excellent choice. Would Malik Monk at #10 have been better than getting the 2 best values of the back of the 1st round? Maybe. We'll never know but we will know this: they're the Kings so whatever move they make its the wrong one. As for Frank Mason, normally I'm a big fan of those bust-ass NCAA PG's, guys that gut it out because they love the game, but I dunno, I never really cared Mason's game. He was a winner, I respect that and the Kings are probably doing themselves a favor by just sticking the Blue Chip programs (I mean UK, UNC, Duke, Kansas, not really going out a limb with these any of these picks) solely because they came from programs expected to win. Mason may well be a regular in the Kings D-League rotation. If they came out with 2 really good young players, 1 intriguing prospect, and 1 potential for a long career as a 4A player in the Kings organization then they'd do pretty well. Obviously they're the Kings so all these picks could go horribly wrong and none are really going into the best of environments, but I like these 4 kids, I like their chances of being professional basketball players and if the Kings can pull four good picks in one draft, that could be a huge step for a team that is desperate to be good.

Wolves: #16 Justin Patton (Creighton)
I dunno this kid at all. 6'11'' C from Creighton. No idea. If Thibs takes a liking to him then maybe he becomes one of the all-time greats, he could be McHale. Or he flops at Summer League and we never hear his name again. I dunno.

Bucks: #17 DJ Wilson (Michigan), #46 Sterling Brown (Oregon)
I don't know these guys specifically but Michigan and Oregon have had moments of really good in the last few years. So cherry picking their athletes doesn't seem like a bad idea to me. My guess is they're looking for swing men who either score or play D off the bench. I don't know these guys but if they can move quick, Coach Kidd will use them.

Pacers: #18 TJ Leaf (UCLA), #47 Ike Anigbogu (UCLA), #52 Edmond Sumner (Xavier)
Pacers go with Lonzo's supporting cast in Westwood and a kid off an overachieving tourney team. If you squint Leaf looks like Austin Croshere, Anigbogu is Dale Davis and Sumner is Rodney Stuckey? If that's how it works out that'd be fine. We'll see.

Hawks: #19 John Collins (Wake Forest), #41 Tyler Dorsey (Oregon), #60 Alpha Kaba (France)
Just watching from mock drafts my sense is Collins went a little high, Dorsey dropped a little far, and Kaba is a name I remember from 2015-16 mocks but I hadn't seen much this year, sounds like he's the ultimate flyer on a Euro. Hawks are a team that are going in the opposite direction of their previous trajectories, that I just have no idea what they're trying to get with any of these picks. I assume they need swing men who can score, as they're more of a high offense...well, I mean, wait....wtf are they now? You used to be able to set your watch by Coach Bud's Hawks, now I just don't know who they are any more. I honestly don't know if these are good picks or not.

Thunder: #21 Terrance Ferguson (USA)
Highest upside is he's the next Russell Westbrook. Yeah, I doubt that'll happen but being next to Westbrook may be amazing for his development of his game. But I doubt we'll see much of it (unless Russ walks to LA with PG next summer). I can totally see him being an amazing practice player and then years from now ending up with the Heat or somebody and turning into Gilbert Arenas (good Gilbert) out of nowhere. OKC may be a great fit long term for him but I just don't see him playing much in the next coupla years.

Nets: #22 Jarrett Allen (Texas), #57 Aleksander Vezenia (Bulgaria)
Allen is a hoss down low, with Brook Lopez moving on and Mozgov moving in, I wouldn't be surprised to Allen get some serious playing time next year. The Nets won't be good and he may well get his teeth kicked in there, I still wouldn't be surprised to see him play. The Nets have plenty of room for people to play, if Allen gets time, he might develop, frankly there's nothing better to do on the Nets. Vezenia is another name I remember from last year more than this. 6'9" F, I dunno, I assume he's a stash, maybe we see him in a coupla years.

Raptors: #23 OG Anunoby (Indiana)
I kinda see him being like Patrick Patterson: savvy on D, reliable in the structure, good teammate, will knock down shots every once in a while, sometimes a crowd favorite. Which I guess isn't good for Patrick Patterson re-signing in Toronto. Raptors are looking to shake things up and Patterson is probably the guy the goes overboard (he'll hook on somewhere, he's a good player). Anunoby feels like a post-Patterson pickup.

Nuggets: #24 Tyler Lydon (Syracuse), #49 Vlatko Cancar (Slovenia), #51 Monte Morris (Iowa St)
They also got Trey Lyles in the trade that netted them Lydon (so the Jazz could get Donovan Mitchell). Lydon and Lyles might be fighting for time off that bench, which is increasingly filled with interesting talents. I don't know Cancar, I suspect we won't see him for a coupla years, but they've had success lately with Euro talent. I don't know Morris, if he can dish the ball at high altitude maybe he can get some bench minutes (or be a D-League cornerstone). The Nuggets may have too much intriguing young talent for anyone to ever see these guys.

Sixers: #1 Markelle Fultz (Washington), #25 Anzejs Pasecniks (Latvia), #36 Jonah Bolden (Australia), #50 Matthias Lessort (France)
Obviously the focus of the draft for the Sixers was properly exercising that #1 pick. But picking up two Euro stashes could work for them down the road. I love the Euro stash job: sometimes they turn into interesting players (one of these days I'll write about how I'd love to see more interaction btw NBA and Europe and China as well), sometimes they linger forever as weird trade throw-ins. Pasecniks is someone who rocketed up the mock drafts pretty late. The Sixers have a ton of Euro assets right now, Bolden and Lessort are now on the list, as well.

Blazers: #10 Zach Collins (Gonzaga), #26 Caleb Swanigan (Purdue)
The Blazers are just such an expensive roster that I can't really figure out what they're doing, I don't see any options other than cutting as much salary as quickly as possible (and hopefully still have 5 guys in uniform). That said, I loved Swanigan's game, not sure I love his body type at the next level but I thought he was a really great passer, I loved his instincts. Ideally he's Boris Diaw-ish, but he could be Stanley Roberts. I can't tell if he'll get to play in Portland because...again...I don't see what Portland is going for at all. I don't see the strategy because they are so far from the luxury of strategy.

Lakers: #2 Lonzo Ball (UCLA), #27 Kyle Kuzma (Utah), #30 Josh Hart (Villanova), #42 Thomas Bryant (Indiana)
If Ball is a star then this is a great draft. But if Kuzma, Hart and Bryant give them anything, that'd be good too. If Kuzma, Hart, Bryant work hard and get lucky, maybe they'll get some minutes because the Lakers should still be rebuilding for 2 more years.

Jazz: #13 Donovan Mitchell (Louisville), #28 Tony Bradley (North Carolina), #55 Nigel Williams-Goss (Gonzaga)
I thought all three were nice looking college players that might be nice NBA players in the proper environment. Utah is probably the proper environment. I like all of these picks.

Spurs: #29 Derrick White (Colorado), #57 Jaron Blossongame (Clemson)
Blossongame is another one of those names that seemed bigger to me last year than this. But there he is being all undervalued and perfectly designed for a Spurs makeover project. He and White both can probably play if Pop thinks they can play. Wouldn't be surprised if either/both of those dudes are regular rotation guys in two years.

That wraps the 1st round, I'll do the 2nd round in a later post.

Sunday, July 2, 2017

2017 NBA Draft (the Lottery)

As usual, I'm late to the party. I was at the party, I just had to split for a while. But I'm back now and I'm ready to throw in my two cents on the highlight of the post-Finals social season: the Draft. I'll start with the first 14 picks, then go team by team after that.

1 Sixers -- Markelle Fultz (Washington)
The most rock solid #1 pick since Anthony Davis? Fultz emerged fairly early in the NCAA season as the best player and stayed that way all through the workout phase before the Draft. The buzz is Danny Ainge had some question about whether Fultz was the man but I doubt that. I was among those a little surprised that the Celtics only got a single extra 1st round pick to go with #3, but Ainge was probably not willing to absorb salary and a choice btw Lakers 2018 or Sac 2019 is pretty appealing, those are both gonna pretty sorry squads, and with Nets 2018 in the back pocket, no need to be greedy, foregoing a bigger haul is a prudent avoidance of gluttony, dead salary can kill the growth. And for the Sixers, they gave up a good pick but its a reasonable price to get the guy everybody wanted (and get the last piece in that sterling silver starting rotation they've been saving up for all these years). Fultz, Covington, Simmons, Saric, Okafor (why does everyone leave him out?) and Embiid is a pretty exciting nucleus. Oh, they'll still suck next year but the East is getting East-ier with each free agent heading for the sunset, the Sixers are not that far from challenging for a playoff spot.

2 Lakers -- Lonzo Ball (UCLA)
Personally I'm not as high on Lonzo as the general consensus. He's got a good feel for the game, loves to pass the ball and isn't afraid to fill it up when need be; but I think his jumper is suspect and that won't get better against NBA defenders (I'm not sure I'd be comfortable with the notion that my #2 cornerstone PG of the future could easily get his ass handed to him by KJ McDaniels but I ain't a Laker fan).  If he's good, he could be really great, though, his upside is pretty up there so I guess I don't fault the choice.

3 Celtics -- Jaysun Tatum (Duke)
I was pretty sure the Celtics would trade this pick, either for more future picks or maybe as a piece in a blockbuster. I thought more people would want to take a chance on Josh Jackson (thought Jonathon Isaac had a chance to be the guy that jumps at the last second maybe here at #4), and if they had selected Jackson I think that would've signaled a trade to come. I didn't think much about Tatum here but once they selected him, yeah, he makes perfect sense, don't know why I didn't see it earlier. He's kinda the perfect bookend to Jaylen Brown, a good scorer in the mid-range, something the Celtics could use a little of. And while he doesn't look to be a great defender perhaps his presence allows Jaylen to bust out as a smothering D guy, they are a tantalizing combo. I think this is a good pick and if the Celtics swing and miss on all their big game hunts and return pretty much the same core, just adding Tatum and getting Jaylen deeper into the main rotation, they should still be sturdy enough to allow Isiah and Horford to continue aging like fine wines. They still look one big move away from really challenging Lebron/Kyrie/Love but in 2 years they gap should shrink a bit and with only the most minimal roster filling, this will look like a successful summer.

4 Suns -- Josh Jackson (Kansas)
I thought he was the best prospect in the draft. A little surprised there wasn't more buzz at the top of the draft about him. I think he's an insane athlete, good instincts, reminds me of Marcus Smart but probably a better player, that sounds pretty good to me. In the right environment, he becomes the next Iguodala or Jimmy Butler. Phoenix is probably a good place for him to churn some minutes and get some exposure without having the pressure of winning. The Suns play fun basketball (that generally comes up short in the end) and he'll be an entertaining player, I think he could have a Blake Griffin-ish highlight reel rookie season and be a big star over night.

5 Kings -- De'Aaron Fox (Kentucky)
Fox is a fascinating PG prospect (personally I see him as Denis Shroeder but a better mid-range scorer, maybe a better passer, more reliable scorer than Shroeder) and I think this is a solid pick. But the Kings are still the Kings and won't be good any time soon no matter who they picked.

6 Magic -- Jonathon Isaac (Florida State)
I think Isaac is the intriguing talent that could be great or nothing at all. I suspect its all about the environment he finds himself in and there the Magic could either be awful or great. I don't think the Magic will be any good at all next year, but if they use the anonymity to just play ball and develop, then Orlando may be perfect for Isaac. I don't see the Magic even trying to be good any time soon. I don't understand any of their moves for the last 2 years or so but this seems like a good pick for them. He might be really good or he may be another wasted Magic draft pick. We'll see by the time that rookie contract is up.

7 Bulls -- Lauri Markannen (Arizona)
The Sixers-Celtics #1 pick deal was a few days before the draft (and the pick itself was a fait accompli) so it wasn't a draft day surprise. The #7 pick is the first big draft day move: Wolves swapping #7, Kris Dunn and Zach LaVine for Jimmy Butler and #16; I was surprised by the move but absolutely stunned by the inclusion of #16, too. I thought the Bulls could've done better anyway but giving a 1st round pick in a good draft when they should be trying to get cheaper made no sense to me. But then again, like the Magic, I have no idea what their plan is. So I should not have been shocked when they took Markannen (a kid who utterly disappeared in the NCAA tourney this year). I guess the upside of Markennen is pretty good, but what are the chances he gets there with the Bulls? At best isn't Markennen maybe the next Mirotic? I like Mirotic as much as the next guy but not in this draft. Suddenly his upside doesn't look good and without Jimmy Butler the Bulls' upside doesn't either. Weird move all the way around: could've gotten more in the deal, could've taken a higher prospect with the pick, and gave away a shot another young cheap talent to develop. Didn't get this at all.

8 Knicks -- Frank Ntilikina (France)
Knicks conspiracy theory: the Knicks really wanted the French PG but knew he would get booed, so they concocted a plan for Phil Jackson to sign an extension, make the pick, make a ass of himself by pumping up the Lativian Gangbanger and then splitting? I mean, that's basically what happened, but I'm suggesting it was pre-meditated. Phil Jax was paid a huge ass bonus to be the lightning rod for questionable choices when, in the end, Dolan got the exact team he wanted (well as soon as he hires David Griffin and ditches Carmelo). So the Knicks have a legit star to build around with a non-English speaking PG to be an exciting athlete who doesn't talk much. Once D Rose and Carmelo have left town, there will be money to spend, 2 stars to build around, and a coupla years of top 10 picks to find another gangbanger. Man, its the expensive way to go but New Yorkers are just like that I guess.

9 Mavs -- Dennis Smith (NC State)
Smith and Rick Carlyle are either get along famously or they're gonna hate each other; either way it should be fun to watch. Mavs need everything, a good, athletic, chip-on-his-shoulder PG is nice thing to go with Dirk and Nerlens. Like Isaac at #7: this is either a steal or the thing that destroys the Mavs for a decade....you know....one or the other.

10 Blazers -- Zach Collins (Gonzaga)
Rather than taking Malik Monk at #10 to go with De'Aaron Fox, the Kings instead trade #10 for #15 and #20; obviously I love putting Fox and Monk together (w/ Cauley-Stein, too), but the Kings need everything and I kinda like getting Justin Jackson at #15 and Harry Giles at #20, can't complain too much though they may well have out-thought themselves on this deal. Blazers get a big white guy down low just to thwart the Hornets getting him at #11. (OMG, do you realize how far over the cap the Blazers are? Fuck, man, they need to be selling not buying, giving not taking, breathing up every available smidge of oxygen) I have no sense for what Collins can do or how he benefits the Blazers. Can he be 3 people for 1/10 the cost of 1 person? Then he's got a future in Portland!

11 Hornets -- Malik Monk (Kentucky)
At this point its easy to call this the steal of the draft. Monk probably should've gone #7 to Bulls (or Wolves) or #8 to Knicks so he's a gift for the Hornets at #11. I've never been the biggest fan of Dwight Howard (after all these years he's still a project on offense) or Kemba (electrifying but not enough of a scorer or playmaker to really lift a team) or MKG (I love the kid but I never really knew what his game was, great motor guy but I'm not sure his role) or even Monk (he'll been unbelievable on some nights but just as often you'll forget he's on the court). I've also never been as enamored of Coach Cliff as everyone else and I think MJ's ego makes it pretty well impossible for him to properly judge talent, so I think the Hornets have a very good chance of being straight awful next year. But all that said, I actually kinda like the combo of all these guys, if they come out like The Expendables. then lure in Boogie at the deadline, they might just come out of nowhere. And Monk might be Rookie of the Year. More likely none of this works and they'll be back here in the #10 range next year but this could turn out kinda fun.

12 Pistons -- Luke Kennard (Duke)
Sure, why not? Personally I would've gone with either Terrence Ferguson or Harry Giles (I just think the upside on both is higher) but Kennard is a reasonable pick here. I think ultimately he's somewhere between TJ McConnell and Joe Ingles: better scorer than TJ, quicker the Ingles. A decent scorer, decent playmaker, decent handle, decent feel for the game, thoroughly decent player. Put the plant in the right soil and it grows big and tall; wrong pot and its dead before you cash the next paycheck. I'm not a big fan of what Stan Van has going on in Detroit so this pick was always gonna be a wild crap shoot.

13 Jazz -- Donovan Mitchell (Louisville)
The Jazz have a good run of draft success lately, I think Mitchell could give them relief if Rodney Hood leaves (or becomes trade bait). I like their coach and the environment, Mitchell should fit well with Rubio and (fingers crossed) Gordon Hayward. Maybe he turns to nothing (they uncharacteristically gave up on Trey Lyles, though I generally kinda liked what I saw), but I can see him fitting right in over the next 3-4 years.

14 Heat -- Bam Adebayo (Kentucky)
As a regular UK basketball watcher, sometimes I see prospects that are tentative at the college game that I think will be more uninhibited and intuitive at the next level. I think Bam could be one of those guys. He reminded me of Dwight Howard, both good and bad: should be a helluva shotblocker, rebounder and down low defender and while he had better offensive moves and instincts than Dwight, Bam played tentative, didn't trust instincts enough and in the end may be similarly stiff to Dwight. But I think he'll bust out and find himself more comfortable at the next level. I think in a platoon with Whiteside, he'll be just fine for 10-15 minutes of being a tough load down low. He's a big kid, won't get moved around too easily, should score a little bit too. I don't think he'll reinvent basketball but I think in a coupla years he could be a pretty reliable guy down low and Miami is probably a good place for him.

Thursday, June 22, 2017

(Pre) 2017 NBA Draft

I've had so little time to go over this year's draft and it's killing me! The shenanigans are the best in years and I'll try to keep it going with a coupla shenanigan ideas of my own. Let's see how they play out.

#1 ) Sixers -- Markelle Fultz. That one's in the bag at this point though clearly Jahlil Okafor is still dangling like an overripe peach. Who wants him enough for Philly to get back in this draft (Okafor, #36 and 2018 1st rounder enough to pry #9 away from Dallas?)

#2) Lakers -- DeAron Fox. Follow my thinking here: it was reported that earlier this week the Lakers tried to swap #2 for #5 and #10 and Sacramento balked. But everyone knows the Kings want Fox, do they want him bad enough to pay a Laker ransom? I say the Lakers take it easy on them: Fox and Luol Deng for #5 (does Lonzo drop to 5?) and Aron Aflalo. I think that's actually a reasonable swap: the Lakers get the guy they want at #5 money instead of #2 money and they take a crappy one year vet instead of a crappy two year vet; the Kings get the guy they want, get to keep #10 and all they gotta do is swallow some salary. Actually not a bad deal for them (but it won't taste so great when the Lakers shove it down their throats).

#3) (Somebody?) -- Josh Jackson. I think the Celtics trade this pick. Either this is part of a package to NYK for the Lativian Gangbanger or maybe they can trick the Kings or Suns into making a panic move (or how about Denver sending over Kenneth Faried, #13 (Celtics take Justin Jackson) and a 2018 1st rounder?). I think the Celtics have got enough future and are looking for some now and I don't think #3 is now enough for them. Personally I think Josh Jackson is the best player in this draft and I think a lot of GMs out there agree with me (though I suspect Danny Ainge wants Jonathon Isaac).

#4) Suns trade #4 to Minnesota for #7 and Zach Lavine. Wolves take Jonathon Isaac,

#5 ) Kings -- Lonzo Ball. (See #2) Kings get Fox, Lakers get Lonzo, Kings still manage to get the short end of the deal but its not too bad (by Kings standards). So it all works out,

#6) Magic -- Dennis Smith. I think that kid might be really good, probably gonna go to waste in Orlando.

#7) Wolves trade the pick to Phoenix. Suns take Malik Monk. Think about it: Malik Monk and Devin Booker together? Oh....man...that....yes. And they get to take a last look at Lavine in his contract year.

#8) Knicks -- Jaysun Tatum. Nail in the coffin of Melo's tenure in New York.

#9) Mavs -- Frank Ntilikana. I dunno, he just seems like the kinda guy the Mavs would take, you know? I can see them trading this pick though.

#10) Kings -- Lari Markennen. They're in the mode of drafting big guys they don't need, seems like Markennen fits the bill for them.

#11) Hornets -- Luke Kennard. Jordan loves him so big useless white guys so naturally I assumed Zach Collins was a lock here. But since they just traded for Dwight Howard (darker skinned than Jordan generally likes but plenty big and useless), kinda leaves this spot up for grabs. Luke Kennard fits the white part and he's kinda big. (I bet they'd love to trade up and grab #3 but I can't imagine they have anything Danny Ainge wants)

#12) Pistons -- Donovan Mitchell. He's been rising up the draft boards lately and I bet Stan Van is eager to move on from Reggie Jax. I don't think matters what the Pistons do, they're doomed for a coupla more years anyway.

#13) Nuggets -- Justin Jackson. I think Jackson is really underrated. I get it: he's a weird looking dude, he doesn't look like a big time baller, but he's big and smart and has good instincts on the court (could be the next...Kenneth Faried? Would the Celtics be interesting in Faried?). I think the Heat are dying to get their hands on him, that alone makes me think the Nuggets grab him and throw in him into their mix of young talent.

#14) Heat -- Harry Giles. Miami is not that concerned about the draft, they're concerned about how to get from under Chris Bosh's massive contract. So when Riles looks up and realizes another all-world Duke prospect has fallen in his lap, he'll bring him in and throw him in the rotation. If it helps lure in Blake Griffin, that'll do.

#15) Blazers -- (trade). Blazers have 3 1st round picks and tons of salary to dump...if you were ever looking for the third wheel in a 3-team trade, call Portland. Do you realize how far over the salary cap the Blazers are? They are Prokhorov-ish-ly drowning in taxes for the foreseeable future. And they have three 1st round picks in this draft! If they figure out how to renounce half their roster, that'd be a dream come true. But I don't see it happening. Blazers have got to wheel and deal, got to listen to any offer. I don't see anyone at #15 that fits what the Blazers need, no one they've just got have, so I think this pick is destined to be a throw-in for some other team.

#16) Bulls -- (I dunno). If the Bulls can lure in Kyle Lowry, then maybe they got something next year. Terrence Ferguson seems like the most intriguing guy here but they'd rather have Lowry and D-Wade, not sure Ferguson does anything for them. Adebayo and Allen and Onunby don't stand out from each other, so who do they pick? I dunno.

#17) Bucks -- OG Anunby. If Giles or Justin Jackson falls to this point, I'd say the Bucks will snatch one of them up. But I don't see that happening. Personally I love Caleb Swanigan, but I understand people being hesitant about his...uh....body. I don't feel like they need the scoring of Terrence Ferguson. Ivan Rabb might fit here but I think they'll go with a wing defender and they could be Anunby.

#18) Pacers -- Terrence Ferguson. They need take a swing on some scoring. Doesn't feel like Teague will be back (or George Hill for that matter), so why not see if this kid Ferguson can fill it up?

#19) Hawks -- (anything). Remember when the 49ers were young, talented, and deep at every position and then, like, 2 years later they were utterly terrible? Yeah, that's how the Hawks are going. Danny Ferry put together a pretty good squad there and they ran him outta town and dismantled his team and now they got nothing (jeez, they don't have even have Dwight Howard any more!). They need anything and everything, so much so that it almost doesn't even matter who they get at #19.

#20) Blazers -- (again?). Yeah, same problem. Three 1st round picks would be great if they could get rid of 2-3 guys they've already got.

(Yeah, I'm already bored of this exercise. Once you get past the first 8-9 guys in this draft it becomes a lot less about the young talent and a lot more about that salary cap not rising the way everyone thought it would. So this year's draft will be less about adding and more about subtracting. Kinda depressing and a lot more unpredictable. And there's nobody that really strikes me as a sleeper out there. Oh sure, Melo Trimble could be this year's Yogi Ferrell but outside of that, the 2nd round looks like a long day's journey into Knicks fans booing randomly. Okay, one more)

#29) Spurs -- Caleb Swanigan. Probably not gonna happen, they'll probably take some kid from Finland I've never heard of. But, man, I really liked Swanigan in the tourney, loved his smarts, loved his passing, think he'd be such a good pickup for the Spurs.

Friday, June 24, 2016

New NBA Free Agents

Anthony Barber (NC State), Kyle Wiltjer (Gonzaga), Troy Williams (Indiana), Jarrod Uthoff (Iowa), Zach Auguste (Notre Dame), Julian Jacobs (USC), Wayne Selden (Kansas), Perry Ellis (Kansas), Alex Poythress (Kentucky), Gary Payton II (Oregon), Robert Carter (Maryland), Dorian Finney-Smith (Florida), Prince Ibeh (Baylor), Fred Van Vleet (Wichita State), Andrey Desayatnikov (Russia), Ron Baker (Wichita State), are now free to find new homes in the NBA. We'll be seeing a lot of these guys at Summer League in a coupla weeks.

Draft Thoughts (#46-60)

#46. AJ Hammons (Mavs) -- Great pickup for the Mavs, I think he'll play for them right away....or be out of the league in six months.

#47. Jake Layman (Magic) -- The interest in Layman kinda came and went all year long. Not sure if this is a good pickup or fool's gold.

#48. Paul Zipser (Bulls) -- The Bulls makeover continues. Zipser is another that only recently appeared in the mocks. I'm guessing he's a bit of Nikola Mirotic type...?

#49. Michael Gbinje (Pistons) -- Interesting prospect off the bench for the Pistons.

#50. Georges Niang (Pacers) -- Could be roster filler for the Pacers but I suspect he's gone by opening night.

#51. Ben Bentil (Celtics) -- Man, the Celtics D League squads are gonna be stacked next year. Bentil had a lot of interest, he definitely could've gone earlier. I figured by now the Celtics would be looking for foreigners to stash but maybe packing the D League is a better way to go.

#52. Joel Bolomboy (Jazz) -- Another one that had consistent interest in the mocks all year long. A little surprised he fell this far. Not sure how he fits the Jazz, could be a D Leaguer.

#53. Petr Cornelie (Nuggets) -- I suspect he'll go back to Europe for a year or two.

#54. Kay Felder (Hawks) -- Felder will either be gone before you know it or he'll be one of the most exciting rookies in this class. If he can score, he could really be a star for the Hawks.

#55. Marcus Paige (Nets) -- I liked him in college, not sure he translates to the next level. He kinda reminds me of Tyus Jones, who became a solid 3rd string PG by the end of the season. Nets needs anything and everything, so I guess he'll get a shot but I'm not really high on his chances of sticking through next summer.

#56. Daniel Hamilton (Nuggets) -- Like the Celtics, looks like the Nuggets are usng this draft to fill out their D League rosters. Had interest most of the year but didn't really shine last season. My guess is he's a D Leaguer.

#57.  Wang Zhelin (Grizzlies) -- No idea who this is or when he gets to the NBA.

#58. Abdel Nader (Celtics) -- Seems like a D League roster filler.

#59. Isiah Cousins (Kings) -- He fell a long way and the Kings need everything, wouldn't be surprised to see him playing for the Kings next year.

#60. Tyrone Wallace (Jazz) -- Interesting West Coast talent, fell a long way.

Draft Thoughts (#31-45)

(Deyonta Davis and Cheick Diallo have dropped quite a bit by now. The intriguing Zhou Qi still out there (though the intriguing Thon Maker is long, long gone))

#31. Deyonta Davis (Celtics traded to Grizzlies) -- Fell a long way, think the Grizzlies got a reasonably priced guy that should fit their rotation.

#32. Ivica Zubac (Lakers) -- Don't know much about him. I think he's expecting to play next year, the Lakers look to have room on the roster for him.

#33. Cheick Diallo (Pelicans) -- Pelicans traded up to get him, if he can score, he can play for them.

#34. Tyler Ulis (Suns) -- Finally! The Suns needed another Kentucky guard. Whew! They must've been sweating the last few picks. I think Ulis can play, he reminded me of Shaun Livingston (offensively only, not defensively): he wants to pass first, get to the elbow for a 15 footer next. For teams that want to play high energy basketball, Ulis is a great fit (to the Nuggets with Jamal Murray might've been even better but he'll hook on with the Suns).

#35. Rade Zagorac (Grizzlies) -- Don't know him, not sure if he comes next year. If he can score from the perimeter then the Grizzlies will play him.

#36. Malcolm Brogdon (Bucks) -- Great pick. Brogdon in college was one of those guys that just does whatever needs to be done, I think his work ethic and smarts give him a great shot at making an NBA rotation. I think he'll play for the Bucks.

#37. Chinanu Onuaku (Rockets) -- Another Louisville product for the Rockets. Seems like the Rockets have piled up a lot of size tonight. Got a feeling Onuaku doesn't make the opening day roster.

#38. Patrick McCaw (Warriors) -- If he can score, he can hang. He'll probably be a practice player for a while but he'll be getting the best practice in the world.

#39. David Michineau (Clippers) -- No idea who this is.

#40. Diamond Stone (Clippers) -- Little surprised he fell this far, I thought he was really impressive in the U17 World Cup last summer. Rookies often get lost at the end of Coach Rivers' bench but I think he can play.

#41. Stephen Zimmerman (Magic) -- Fell too far, I think this guy can really play. Again, not sure where the Magic are going with any of these moves--don't dislike the choices just not sure I get them. I think this guy's gonna be a solid athlete at the next level.

#42. Isiah Whitehead (Jazz) -- Great pick, this kid can ball. The Jazz are one of those teams with a deep rotation, he'll get some run.

#43. Zhou Qi (Rockets) -- Curious to see him in action, he sounds great. Rockets might've picked up the real score of this entire draft.

#44. Isaia Cordinier (Hawks) -- Not sure if he plays right away or spends another year in Europe.

#45. Demetrius Jackson (Celtics) -- Celtics got another quality guard. Not sure if he gets playing time, unless a lot of trades take place (absolutely possible).

Thursday, June 23, 2016

Draft Thoughts (#15-30)

#15. Juan Hernangomez (Nuggets) -- Any guy the Spurs like is a guy worth getting to know. This draft is turning into a foreign affair (and that's counting Simmons and Sabonis as Americans). Those players hard to predict, how to get to know, and the draft itself is unknowable, could be a classic draft, could be the worst class in eons. If Hernangomez scores the way I think he can, he'll play right away and fit right in to the Nuggets motif. Or perhaps he's a stash and we'll see him in 2017-18.

#16. Gerschon Yabusele (Celtics) -- I had Yabusele going #43, either there a lot of reaches tonight or the mock drafts I look at are way out of the know. Don't know much about Yabusele, my guess is he's a stash job, we'll probably see him when it comes time to decide what to do with Marcus Smart or Avery Bradley.

#17 Wade Baldwin (Grizzlies) -- Great pick. I think Baldwin is one of the more underappreciated (American) players in this draft. He'll score and play hard, exactly what the Grizzlies need. Grizzlies might be a grease fire next year or they might have that old timey Grizzlies grit to 'em, we'll see. Either way I think Baldwin is a great pick here.

#18 Henry Ellenson (Pistons) -- He'll fit well with their offense. With Drummond down low and Jackson dominating the ball, he fill the swing spot opposite Tobias Harris nicely. Could even play some minutes at the C in small ball lineup. Not an ROY candidate but I think he'll put a solid part of their rotation by year's end.

#19 Malik Beasley (Nuggets) -- The Nuggets are really adding a lot of young scoring tonight, huh? I wonder if Beasley slips ahead of Hernangomez on the depth chart (or if this pushes Hernangomez for one more year of Europe). Murray and Beasley are in a fight to supplant Gary Harris or it could be that three of them form a great platoon. (Hmmm, trade rumors were swirling about Kenneth Faried wonder if Beasley or Harris or Hernangomez gets moved soon? Telling ya, man, tonight is a night of subterfuge, everybody's dealing tonight)

#20 Caris LaVert (Nets) -- Brooklyn needs anything and everything but LaVert seems like a bit of a reach. Oh well, if he can play, he will play, so not a bad pick. He'll get a chance to play so if the Nets excede expectations in the least, LaVert could get some ROY consideration.

#21 Deandre Bembry (Hawks) -- Hmm, Hawks are going for a squad of Bazemore replacements. I dunno, could work. Hard working small forward, he'll be learning alongside Taurean Prince, if they lose Horford, they might both get time as the Hawks revamp.

(Forkan Korkmaz, Deyonta Davis, Timothe Luwawu and Dejounte Murray still on the board)

#22 Malachi Richardson (Kings) -- Kinda feel like the Kings should've kept the foreign vibe going with this pick. Richardson had a nice run in the NCAA Tourney this year but I still felt like he was too young to really discern his game yet. The Kings need finished products, not experiments, but his size and ball handling skill makes him worth it I guess.

#23 Ante Zizic (Celtics) -- Not sure if the Celtics bring him over sooner or later, but they need help down low.

#24 Timothe Luwawu (Sixers) -- Raw talent but kinda Antetokounpo-ish and the Sixers need everything, I think this is a good pick. He and Simmons might be great together. (If they take Zimmerman at #26, could mean Nerlens and Okafor are both on the move)

#25 Brice Johnson (Clippers) -- Great pick. Johnson has the ability to be the perfect contributor for a good team and Chris Paul is just the guy to keep the discipline on him. I think this is a great fit, think Johnson is going to be a solid player off the Clipper bench all year long.

#26 Furkan Korkmaz (Sixers) -- With Dario Saric on his way to Philly, Korkmaz might get another year in Turkey but I kinda thought he was ready play right away. Maybe he is, Philly has been featuring mostly rookies for the last coupla years, this year the rookies will actually be highly touted. I love a youth movement and I can tell I'll be watching a lot of the Sixers next year.

#27 Pascal Siakam (Raptors) -- Raptors are really stocking up on big guys tonight, not planning on getting Biyombo back, I guess. Don't know much about Siakam, not sure how he fits in for the Raptors.

#28 Skal Labissiere (Kings) -- Honestly, after watching him for a season at UK, I don't think he's worth the #28 pick but I do think this is a more realistic spot for him than the lottery where most mocks projected him. I think Skal will be a better scorer than defender, so perhaps he gets attention when he does get some playing time. I suspect we won't see much of him next year, he's a long term project.

#29 Dejounte Murray (Spurs) -- Murray was routinely projected as a lottery pick, so was he overrated (like Skal) or is he gift from God to the Spurs? It's the Spurs, man, you know its gift from god time! I don't know much about Murray but he's bigger PG than the Spurs have been used to. If he can swing the ball around and knock down an occasional 3, he'll fit in perfectly. And with Pop's rotations, he'll probably get regular playing time (perhaps a lot if Tony Parker gets nicked up). No idea what kind of player he is but he's a Spur now, so he's probably really good.

#30 Damian Jones (Warriors) -- A center from Vandy...guess the post-Ezeli era will be a smooth transition. When it comes to starting pitchers, Vandy has been great lately but if you're looking low post scoring, not sure Vandy is the basketball Wal-Mart. If indeed they do let Ezeli go (I think they ought to), then Jones will get some time. If he can score down low, he might be a neat little toy for Draymond and Curry and if he's a hard nosed defender he could be a real asset for them. We'll see.

Draft Thoughts (#1-14)

#1. Ben Simmons (Sixers) -- Clear call, easy call, great pick. The Sixers will probably still stuck next year, not hard to imagine that Simmons struggles. But the team is on the right track and Simmons will eventually be a really good player.

#2. Brandon Ingram (Lakers) -- Kobe's replacement. He'll got a lot of run, a lot of opportunities right away, Coach Walton will treat him right. We'll see what moves the Lakers make before opening night, but right now I don't see the Lakers as a playoff team, though they should be sniffing around #8. Ingram will have a good chance at ROY.

#3 Jaylen Brown (Celtics) -- Interesting pick, wouldn't be surprised to see him on another team by the end of the night. Brown is a raw talent but when you've got Coach Stevens, raw is just fine, it means fewer bad habits. Brown is either a replacement for a possible trade (Bradley on the move?) or he is the possible trade (does Brown them Jahlil Okafor?). I think Brown's gonna be good, I think he can be good for the Celtics but for Boston this seems like a reach which makes me think someone else wants him. 

#4 Dragan Bender (Suns) -- Good pick. Bender has been an impressive prospect, interesting game, I think he can play with Knight or Bledsoe or Booker (would you be shocked if all three got traded and replaced with three totally different PG's to fight over the ball?). Or he too could be interesting to other teams, the Suns are loaded down with trade bait and Bender might be one of them. 

#5 Kris Dunn (Wolves) -- I would've thought Hield or Murray for the Wolves, some young scoring to go with Wiggins' sick defense. The talk of Rubio on the move has been heating up, so Dunn seems like the logical replacement. I know Thibs wants to win now but this team is already young, you sure you're going deep in the playoffs with a rookie PG? Maybe, Dunn looks like he's gonna be really good but even Dunn could use a wing scorer to go with. 

#6 Buddy Hield (Pelicans) -- Pelicans need all the perimeter scoring they can get. Hield is a senior, a little older than the others in this draft, I think he'll play right away. He's a one dimensional player but his one dimension is really big in the NBA right now and if he can score, he'll be a big score right away. Hield with Alvin Gentry has ROY potential.

#7 Jamal Murray (Nuggets) -- Murray fits in with the free flowing Nugget offense, he'll score just fine right away. Nuggets are a young team (wouldn't be surprised to see them trade Faried for more draft picks), so the expectations are not high but they have a great home court advantage, so if they come together they can hang around the #8 spot. I think the Nuggets are maybe the best place for Murray: he shoots the ball and the Nuggets love scorers. I think the Nuggets will be too young and sloppy for Murray to get serious ROY consideration but he should score from the gitty and be a solid #2 in this league for a while. 

#8 Marquis Chriss (Kings) -- Yeah, the most wildly overrated reach of a pick to a team that desperately needs reliable young talent. Oh well. Hopefully Coach Joerger will get this young man on the right path. I think the Kings will be horrible and I don't have high hopes for Chriss in the near or long term. 

#9 Jakob Poetl (Raptors) -- Curious pick. They already have Lucas Noquiera and Bruno Caboclo waiting in the wings, is this an acknowledgement they're ready to move on from the Brazilian duo? Or he is future trade bait? (On a night like tonight, that is a possibility for every single remaining pick before and after the pick is redeemed) I'm not a huge fan of Poetl, I think he can be a solid Zeller-ish presence, which isn't a bad thing but it isn't a great thing and I think there are better players available at #9. 

#10 Thon Maker (Bucks) -- BOOM! Bucks dropped a boms on #10. The enigmatic Thon Maker has been all over the place (I've seen as high as #14, as low at late 50s; I had him going #31 to the Celtics) and in the last few hours rumors of lying about his age were heating up of the internet. Seems like damaged goods and he's only 19 (roughly). But the Bucks must've seen something like they liked because they dropped him into the #10 salary slot. Okay, we'll see. I have no idea who he really is or what he's like, no idea what kinda of future he'll have. Is he here to replace Greg Monroe? 

#11 Damontis Sabonis (Magic) -- Good pick, I think Sabonis is gonna be a good player (think Josh McRoberts with a scoring touch). I guess a he's a good fit for the Magic. 

#12 (If the Hawks traded up to get Skal Labisserie, I'm gonna barf on my shoes) Taurean Prince (Hawks) -- Well, that's better than getting Labisserie but not much. I think they could've gotten Prince with the #21 pick (I had him going #30 to the Warriors), not sure he was worth dumping Jeff Teague for. Oh well. Don't know much about him, I guess he replaces Kent Bazemore? 

#13 Georgios Papagiannis (Suns) -- Papagiannis just appeared in the mock draft world in the last coupla weeks, I kinda thought the Bucks would have an eye for him but they took Thon Maker instead (hmmmm, any chance those two picks get swapped?). Don't know anything about Papagiannis except that he is an insane reach at #13, so either he's a trade piece or they're going for an all international flavor in Phoenix? 

#14 Denzel Valentine (Bulls) -- Personally I was really impressed with Valentine's game at Michigan State. He's big, a sure ball handler and can do a little bit of everything on the court. If you can't figure out how to work with that then you need to get out of the basketball business. Whispers of health concerns looked to drop Valentine out of the lottery (I had him going #18) but I think he can be a really good PG and, well, the Bulls are suddenly looking for one of those. I don't think he's an ROY candidate (although who know what the Bulls will look like next year?) because I don't think he'll dominate the ball, though a playmaking distributor is probably his best role. 

Wednesday, June 22, 2016

NBA Draft Preview

Before the draft tomorrow night, I wanted to get a few thoughts down on a handful of players. I think there's a good potential for a lot of trades this year (next year too), the rising cap means everybody has more room to wheel and deal and that begins on draft day. The Championship is over but tehcnically the draft is the last business of the season. The free agency period (opening July 7) is the beginning of next season and by the end of July a lot of teams will look really different.

Ben Simmons has apparently been told that he will be Philly's #1 pick. I watched him this year and he is a tremendous talent. He's not a natural born scorer but his instincts with the ball are impeccable and his size will give him a great chance for success at the next level. Comparisons include Lamar Odom, Boris Diaw, Evan Turner. Let's start with those: great handle, can survive in the lane, and a great sense of the game. Over time, though, is ceiling is Lebron James: ball handling big man who can dictate what everyone else needs to do from the point forward spot. Simmons needs to round out his scoring game before we can even begin to compare him to the great Lebron (and we need to see some of that defense too) but when we're talking prospects, why not think big? The downside is that he didn't give great effort at LSU but in his defense, his teammates were not great, his coach is a bit of a doofus and the b-ball culture in general at LSU is so-so (though it ought to be kinda great). Ehhh, I'm not worried about any of that. He was the #1 prospect for the entire season, you can't blame the kid for having his mind on other things (its LSU's job to keep him interested and they dropped the ball, don't blame the kid!). I think Ingram has great offensive upside but I'd go with Simmons #1.

Brandon Ingram attacked the basket really well in college and his 3-point stroke was impressive enough. I didn't watch enough to get a real sense of his defense but he's long and active, he can be taught to do the right things. I think his upside is great (especially early, don't be surprised if he develops faster than Simmons), he just needs to keep growing and getting his reps on the court. It seems like the Lakers love him, I think it'll be a good fit (they are a young squad but I expect them to be busy in July).

Dragan Bender has been rated top ten since last summer without any drop off. I haven't seen him, I know little about him but the fact that scouts didn't waver on him indicates that he must be a legit prospect (especially since foreign prospects often fall off the radar). I've seen him as high as #3 and I suspect the Celtics will take him because he presents tantalizing trade possibilities. I think the basic comparison for Bender is Nikola Mirotic but younger, quicker and probably a better shooter (which puts him in Dirk territory) or maybe something like a cross between Rashard Lewis and Danilo Gallinari, a long lanky wing man that can make plays or fill it up from outside. The Celtics could use that, the Suns could use that at the #4 pick, I don't expect Bender to last long in this draft.

Kris Dunn seems like a solid, though not terribly flashy PG. He's kinda local for the Celtics at #3, he could be groomed to replace Rubio for the Wolves at #5, the Pelicans can use all sorts of help everywhere at #6. I expect he'll be gone by the seventh pick.

Jaylen Brown needs to develop his game but he's certainly a fine athlete and another prospect that didn't drop from lottery range all year long. He seems kinda raw, not sure what he can do right away for some of these teams. I wouldn't wish getting drafted by the Kings on my worst enemy, but they do have Bay Area envy, if the kid from Cal is still there I expect the Kings to jump all over him. I think he's a terrible fit (with or without Cousins) but I wouldn't be surprised to see him go #8, though I have him going #9 to the Raptors.

A quick word on the Kentucky Wildcats: As a Cats fan I started this season with great hope for Skal and Murray and Briscoe. My initial thoughts were thus: Skal kinda sucks, Briscoe is nice but not a solid enough PG to dominate as a freshman, Murray is a nice scorer, solid prospect but not the kinda guy that carries a team, Poythress is an athlete but not very good at basketball, Marcus Lee is a phenomenal athlete but his offensive contributions will be minimal and I like Tyler Ulis but he's a bench player that shouldn't be getting 35 minutes a night. I love my Cats but I saw no scoring and just assumed this team would struggle all year long. Then something happened: hey, man, Ulis can play and when Ulis and Murray were both on, UK was actually pretty good (unfortunately unless they were both playing great, UK wasn't very good). Murray doesn't bomb 3's but he's a great midrange scorer and a smart player (comp: Rip Hamilton), Ulis is a waterbug type that keeps the tempo high and wants to lead a dynamic offense (comp: young Tony Parker), Skal has moments where you see what the scouts saw coming out of high school (nice turnaround hook, decent 15 footer, decent ballhandler) but he doesn't do anything well enough often enough to merit a lottery pick...but somebody's gonna take him I'm sure. I would not put Murray ahead of Buddy Hield on my board but I can see him going #3 to the Celtics (though I would prefer Bender) or #5 to Wolves (though I would prefer Hield), I think he goes #7 to the Nuggets. Ulis to my eye is a late 1st/early 2nd round guy, which is perfect because I think he's better for a good team, I can see him ending up with the Spurs or Warriors or maybe early 2nd round to the Bucks. As for Skal, I'm not sure, he's a project, he absolutely will not contribute in the first coupla years, so who can afford to stash him for a while? I have him going #13 to the Suns (who will dangle him as trade bait).

I kinda love Buddy Hield. He's a little older than the rest of these guys but he knows who he is, he can stroke the 3 and I think he's ready to play right away. I think he's a perfect fit for the Wolves at #5. (Right now Hield in Minnesota is my pick for ROY)

I also kinda love Damontis Sabonis. I don't think he's a star at the next level but I think he's a reliable, smart big man that can pass the ball and be in the right place at the right time. I have him going #7 to the Nuggets but if he's still there at #8 I think the Kings take him. (Also I think he's the perfect fit for the Warriors especially if they let Barnes go. I doubt they'd aggressively move up for a rookie but he'd be good as the future replacement for Bogut)

Marquesse Chriss is kinda the anti-Skal: whereas Skal was the #1 prospect out of high school who underwhelmed in NCAA but people still want him anyway, Chriss was not even in the top 50 who underwhelmed in NCAA...that people still want anyway. I don't get it, I don't see anything there that looks promising to me. I have him going #8 to the Kings, which I think would be disastrous for both. Realistically I think #20 to the Pacers is where he ought to go--though I think he's a reach even there!--but he'll be long gone by then.

I watched Henry Ellenson in the U-17 World Cup a coupla years back and I thought he was a good but not great prospect. I think he's a Zeller: big man, smart, moves pretty well, won't be a disaster but I don't see him as a big star or anything. He can grow into a nice swing man, can score a little, good pick and roll guy. If he can add a consistent 15-20 footer, he could be a useful player. I think he goes #10 to the Bucks.

Of all the guys getting a late push before the draft, I think Wade Baldwin has the highest upside. Smart, strong, good shooter, big kid, I think in the right situation he could really blossom. He's the Justise Winslow of this draft, should be a better scorer sooner. I have going #11 to the Magic but I think he might ought to be higher.

I've yet to be overwhelmed by Jakob Poetl but he's another prospect that stayed in the lottery projections pretty much all year long. He strikes me as a throwback downlow center which seems to be going away in the league, so unless he's a dominant rebounder I'm not sure what he does at the next level. I have him going #12 to the Jazz.

I don't know Deyonta Davis all that well. I was a big fan of his Michigan State teammate Denzel Valentine but while Valentine has dropped on injury concerns, Davis seems steady as a late lottery pick. I have him going #14 to the Bulls.

I just wanted to go over the guys I thought would be the lottery picks but there are a few others that strike me as undervalued: Brice Johnson, Denzel Valentine, Thon Maker, Diamond Stone, Zhou Qi, Isiah Whitehead, AJ Hammons, Wayne Selden and Malcolm Brogdon.

I think Johnson has the widest variance of any 1st round prospect: he could be really great or he could be truly awful (a hard nose defensive version of Michael Beasley, I guess). I think Valentine is going to be great at the next level: big kid, smart, can shoot, good passer, decent playmaker. If he stays healthy I think he can be a really really good player. Maker is a high school kid that no one knows how to value--that caught my attention. Is he the next Hassan Whiteside or the next Andrew Bynum? I dunno, but someone's gonna roll the dice on him. I watched Stone in the last U17 World Cup and I was blown away, that kid could do everything in the lane, not sure why he is more highly touted. If he drops into the 2nd round, someone's gonna get a great value (if the Sixers trade away all their big men, they'd be wise to spend one of those late 1st round picks on Stone). Zhou Qi is a Chinese prospect who looks to be good at everything....and I'm not sure why he isn't more highly rated. The rumors that he's been lying about his age seem to have been debunked. If the Celtics can get him at #35, I think that'd be a great pick. Whitehead impressed me when I saw him with Seton Hall, that kid can ball, he'd be a good pick for the Pelicans with one of their 2nd round picks. Hammons is a boom/bust guy: could be a rock down low for years to come (think what Tristan Thompson just did in the Finals) or he could be a useless malcontent that never really fits in (think Andrew Bynum). For a team that needs size, they should give him a shot. I liked Selden, not a great player, but he could be a reliable role player that does what needs to be done. If he's still around after #50 then I think a lot of scouting departments will be kicking themselves. Brogdon, like Denzel Valentine, is a smart, reliable guy that will be a good player for a good team (he'd be better off not getting drafted and then trying to hook on with the Spurs).

Thursday, May 12, 2016

Orlando Magic Observations

Coach Scott Skiles announced his resignation from the Magic this morning. I didn't anticipate this move, I'm calling it a shocker. Skiles is a well known prickly pear so unless he's got a gig lined up, I wouldn't be surprised if we never see him again (not big on cultivating warm relationships, they say). And where will the Magic go for their new head coach? Mark Jackson, Mike D'antoni, Frank Vogel, David Blatt, Jeff Hornacek appear to be the top coaching candidates out there but the Magic find themselves in competition with the Pacers, Knicks, Rockets and Grizzlies; Jeff Van Gundy, Lionel Hollins, JB Bickerstaff, Sam Mitchell, Randy Wittman, Mike Dunleavy and Vinny Del Negro are further down the wish list. Gotta wonder if the Magic think they can lure Jay Wright away from Villanova (I doubt it, but the Magic might give it a shot). I dunno, none of those guys look like a fit to me, right now I guess the Magic will promote from within.

(I had planned on doing a team by team analysis heading into the draft and free agency period, so I guess I'll start with the Magic)

The Magic are one of those up-and-coming young teams built around draft picks that struggle to win games in the fourth quarter but, by golly, they play hard and the fans are full of hope for the future. Or that's the narrative anyway. Frankly I'm not convinced. The moves they've made over the last few years have gone under the radar considering the heat and light that Sam Hinkie's Sixers and the similar youth movement in Minnesota have absorbed; but the Wolves have their compass firmly in hand and the Sixers are ready to embrace their future. The Magic, meanwhile, have yet to push forward in a meaningful way.

They sold low on Mo Harkless (just gave him away), Kyle O'Quinn (paid to have him leave town, then paid even more to weakly replace him), Tobias Harris (dumped him just weeks after going all in on him) and Channing Frye (moving him was fine, but did they have to give him away to the top team in their conference?). And what was the deal with claiming Chris Copeland off waivers and then cutting him the next day? (I'm not a cap expert, perhaps it was necessary in some roster sense but not any sense that I know of) Uh...seems like Sam Hinkie could've done all this, no? And now parting ways with Coach Skiles after one mediocre year is something that should be kinda distressing (and it feels like ugly details are on the way).

As of now, next year's starting five looks like: C Nikola Vucevic, PF Aaron Gordon, SF Mario Hezonja, SG Victor Oladipo, PG Elfrid Payton with F Ersan Ilyasova off the bench. (Is that better than the Sixers? Probably but not definitely) The currently signed bench players are all guards: CJ Watson, Shabazz Napier, Devyn Marble.

They've drafted well lately (Aaron Gordon could be the next big thing) and they are currently sitting on #11,#41,#47 in the coming draft. Otherwise, it doesn't feel like they've done much else to build up their infrastructure, on the court or off. That starting lineup is not gonna win games next year and the bench is just non-existent.

The players they'll be giving up to free agency are: PG Brandon Jennings (absolutely will not be coming back), PF Andrew Nicholson (probably not a high priority for the Magic), SG Evan Fournier (could be back but I'm not sure), C Dwayne Dedmon (probably not a high priority for the Magic). The Magic has tons of cap room, they could easily bring in 2 or maybe even 3 max free agents but Orlando has never had success doing that in the past (okay, well, that one year when they got McGrady and Grant Hill), so what is the plan? And now they don't have a coach.

Who are the free agents they could be after? My guess: Chandler Parsons (Mavs), Al Horford (Hawks), Dwight Howard (Rockets) will be the big tickets in their sights. I guess Nicholson and Dedmon would be available if they swing and miss on other big men (maybe Brandon Bass, too). And I'm not sure whether they're into keeping Evan Fournier considering Mario Hezonja will be ready fairly soon; signing Fournier turns them both into instant trade bait. And, yeah, I would expect them to dangle Vucevic and #11 (and Fournier in a sign and trade?) in hopes of luring Cousins out of Sacramento.

I hate to be that guy but...this team is a mess! At least the Sixers are starting to have stuff to build around, the Magic currently feature Ersan Ilyasova as their 6th Man! What kind of youth movement is that? And, okay, I'll admit: Shabazz Napier is perhaps my LEAST favorite player in the league (man, every time I saw him play last year I instantly wondered, 'Who got hurt? Why is he playing?') and he is currently the prize of their bench. The Magic need to hit big in free agency--BIG!--and that's something Orlando has not had much luck with in the past. And I'm not sure bringing back Dwight Howard counts as big. If they could snag Cousins they instantly become the Sacramento of the East but they would still have plenty of cap space for free agents. Does Boogie, no coach and a mediocre youth movement entice any big stars out there? I'm not feeling it.

I like Vucevic, think he's a really underrated big man. I believe Gordon could develop into a serious baller. Oladipo, Payton and Hezonja have shown flashes of being competent NBA players. Beyond that, I don't see much of anything there. And the fact that this is after several years of youth movement planning, I gotta say I am wildly underwhelmed. Sam Hinkie sucked up all the criticism, I guess, because I think the general consensus is that Orlando is a team on the up. It looks to me like a very slow ascent.

Sunday, June 28, 2015

Draft Evaluation (Atlantic)

Wizards (#15 Oubre (trade), #49 White) Oubre is high risk/reward, they're hoping an Oubre/Porter platoon can replace Paul Pierce. They'd love to get decent cheap bench minutes down low out of White as he'll be cheap enough he might make the roster (if Summer League isn't a disaster). Wall, Beal, Webster, Gortat, Nene is the starting five. Humphries off the bench down low, Oubre and Porter off the bench on the wings, Sessions for PG. Solid enough for the East but not a lot of flexibility though there are still roster spots to fill. Does this team beat the Pacers or Hawks in the playoffs? Too early to say.

Celtics (#16 Rozier, #28 Hunter, #33 Mickey, #45 Thornton) Risk/reward kinda draft. Hunter might be a for-real scorer...or he might be utterly awful. Rozier might be a confident ballhandler and playmaker...or he might be overmatched at the next level. Mickey might be a nasty defender down low or a ball hawking rebounder...or he might be a career D-league. Thornton might be...I dunno who he is...but he might something other than what he's supposed to be. The Celtics kinda got stuck in the middle with this draft: they need to draft their stars, they can't count on free agency. Ainge has drafted well over the years and I think they did well again with this haul, but there aren't any stars in there, just another batch of nice role players. The Celtics must have a big trade this summer, we'll see what comes.

Nets (#23 Hollis-Jefferson (trade), #29 McCullough) McCullough is hurt, probably won't play this year. Hollis-Jefferson is expected to be an all-world on-ball defender but not much else. The Nets have to get cheaper, can't imagine they'll be any good at all this year (but I thought that last summer and they still made the playoffs). These picks are for the future, the cheaper, younger future.

Sixers (#3 Okafor, #35 Hernangomez, #37 Holmes, #47 Gudaitis, #58 Tokoto, #60 Mitrovic) I think Okafor and Nerlens can play together, if so expect Embiid to be available by the 2016 draft. I think all 3 of the 2nd round foreigners are for the future, and as for Holmes and Tokoto, they'll get a chance because the Sixers are still dedicated to sucking for one more year at least. This year is about finding out if Nerlens and Okafor make a good combo, if so then there is finally something to build around. Expect the Sixers to earn themselves another lottery pick next year, add in 1st rounders from the Heat (probably around #25 or so) and the Lakers (mid-teens, maybe lottery), and whatever they can get for Embiid (I'd think a top ten 2016, another 1st rounder 2017). I think next summer is the time the Sixers have targeted to make their splash in free agency (....or perhaps they'll never make that splash and just keep accumulating value in the form of draft picks rather than W's).

Knicks (#4 Porzingis, #19 Grant (trade)) I can understand the NYK faithful to be gunshy about another Euro wunderkind and, hey man, Phil would've rather been anywhere than #4 in this draft. But the buzz is the kid can play. Frankly the Knicks are more dangerous to his future than the other way around. I wish the kid well, his highlights are pretty sick and before you call him tiny, he's actually bigger and stronger than Anthony Davis. If he's good in New York, the Knicks will be building around him soon enough; if he's not, Utah Jazz might be up for a blockbuster trade.

Friday, June 26, 2015

Draft Day Trades

Thought this would be a busy day for trades but not so much. Indeed, seemed kinda lackluster (the most high profile player on the move was Grievis Vasquez, you know him and love him but your mom doesn't, thus not a blockbuster trade). Oh well, the player movement season is now underway (July 10 technically, but the rumors have already begun) and there were a handful moves last night.

Wizards get #15 (Kelly Oubre); Hawks get Tim Hardaway Jr; Knicks get #19 (Jerian Grant). I kept getting confused as to who was going where when this was first announced. After figuring it all out, it makes sense to me. The Hawks get a veteran who can play right now rather than trying to bring along a rookie, yes Hardaway was disappointing last year but the situation was deteriorating from the get go, none of which was Hardaway's fault, I think he can play and he's probably better right now than Grant or Oubre. The Wizards get the high risk/reward guy, could be a dynamic scorer that begins to replace Pierce or he could be out of the league in 2 years, either way the Wizards are probably in the right place to roll the dice with Oubre. Knicks get the most reliable good rookie in the deal, moved a contract they apparently no longer wanted and Grant is a reasonable replacement for Hardaway. A good deal for all three teams I'd say

Wolves get #22 (Tyus Jones); Cavs get #31 (Cedi Osman), #36 (Rakeem Christmas). The Wolves get one more dynamic young rookie (hometown hero to boot) to throw into the youth movement (I'd say one more lottery and then its go time for this Wolves crew) rather than trying to figure out what to do with two 2nd rounders who fit neither the roster nor the bench. Cavs, on the other hand, need cheap young bodies that can be easily buried out back if need be or just as easily stuffed onto the end of the roster. They chose one foreigner to stash away (don't think he'll be ready for another year or two) and one marginal NCAA prospect that'll probably be D-leaguin' it for the foreseeable future.

Raptors get #46 (Norman Powell), the Clippers 2017 1st rd pick; Bucks get Grievis Vasquez. The Raptors are blowing it up, everyone's available and Vasquez was the first to get out alive. The Raptors add Powell (a pretty good value at #46, I'd say he's got a decent shot at making the team) and a bonus pick next year for a 2nd string PG, not a bad move for them. The Bucks have a lot of young guards (3rd year MCW, 2nd year Tyler Ennis, rookie Rashad Vaughn), and though Vasquez is not the type of defender J Kidd seems to prefer, offensively he's a steady hand with the ball, decent playmaker, decent shooter, a 2nd string PG you can rely on. Feels like they overpaid a bit but Vasquez is probably EXACTLY the guy they wanted and therefore worth a little more. Good move for the Bucks, Vasquez and Vaughn are two good pick-ups for only future (as opposed to present) considerations.

Blazers get Mason Plumlee, #41 (Pat Connaughton); Nets get Steve Blake, #23 (Rondae Hollis-Jefferson). Nets get a reasonably-priced veteran PG and a highly motivated (if one dimensional) rookie with no real pressure to perform this year. Nets need to peel off salary for the next two years or so til they can get back into the free agency game. Plumlee wasn't in their future so to turn him into a backup PG and a rookie contract is a plus. The Blazers, too, are in re-build mode but from the opposite direction: the Nets have too many expensive players, the Blazers' expensive players are exiting en masse. If Aldridge isn't around then Plumlee will play (and make people miss Aldridge) and the Blazers need all the players they can get. Connaughton could maybe surpass McCollum but I doubt it, he's more likely a D-leaguer or post-Summer League trade bait,

Grizzlies get Andrew Harrison; Suns get Jon Leuer. Harrison thought he was joining the Wildcat roundup out west but it was just a stop on his way to the Grizzlies. Telling you, I believe in Harrison, as a big combo guard he's probably a good fit for the Grizzlies. Not sure the Suns need Leuer, not a bad player, he's not a salary dump kinda guy, but I don't see where he fits the Suns. Guess he's emergency depth.

Nets get Juan Pablo Vaulet; Hornets get 2018 2nd rd pick, 2019 2nd rd pick, cash considerations. No idea who Juan Pablo Vaulet is but the Nets just gave away their last two draft picks for the next 5 years to get him. The Nets need to get younger and cheaper, this guy definitely lets them do that, considering what they paid I assume he's ready to play now, not some stash job. This is one of those deals that if Vaulet turns out to be any good at all, then it'll be a good deal for the Nets; but if he's not, then this is another one of those deals you point to when everyone's trying to figure out why the GM just get fired.

Blazers get Daniel Diez; Jazz get cash considerations. I do not know Diez, The Blazers need bodies more than the Jazz do, that alone makes this deal seem obvious.

Clippers get Branden Dawson; Pelicans get cash considerations. I was impressed with Dawsen on Michigan State's Final Four run this past March, he looked like a decent shooter and handler, decent athlete, just a generally solid dependable player. Mich St dudes tend to last, I think he's a good pickup for the Clippers, thought he was a good pickup for the Pelicans, while their roster is already overstuffed with outside shooters, I'd have given Dawsen a shot at supplanting some of those guys but I guess they'd rather have the cash.