East
(Game Five) Cavs 98-113 Celtics
Yup, gentleman's sweep. Sounds about right. The Cavs have a weird summer ahead: do they trade Donovan Mitchell (likely won't re-sign next summer) or Darius Garland (highest paid player on the roster)? Do they trade Jarrett Allen (kinda ugly behind-the-scenes report on him) or figure out how to play him with Evan Mobley? Does bringing back Isaac Okoro revolve around any of the potential trades above? Is there anyone that wants Georges Niang (liked him in Philly but he just doesn't fit in this lineup)? For a recently rebuilt team with good young talent that made the quarterfinals, the Cavs have more questions than answer going forward--which is not to say that they'll be bad next year. If they can navigate the landscape, they might be awesome, but they've got some work to do.
(Five) Pacers 91-121 Knicks
(Six) Knicks 103-116 Pacers
(Seven) Pacers 130-109 Knicks
The Pacers looked so bad in their three losses, it's almost hard to remember that they actually won this series. And, even then, well, I mean, the Knicks had nobody left to play by the time Game Seven rolled around. But the Pacers handled their business by shooting the lights out in the 1st half of Game Seven; the Knicks went on a run after halftime, but the Pacers countered, restored the lead they had at halftime, then when Jalen Brunson went down with a broken hand (after OG Anunoby broke down almost immediately), and that was that. The Knicks had a nice season but injuries absolutely wrecked them--and Brunson, Donte DiVincenzo. Josh Hart and Isiah Hartenstein still almost got them to the next round. Knicks fans should hold their heads high today--and I haven't thought that since the mid-1990s. I think they'll move on from Bogdanovic (clearly not a Thibs fave), I think they'll lose Hartenstein (OKC ought to take a run at him), I think Alec Burks passed his Lakers audition with flying colors, they've got a big decision to make about re-signing Anunoby (man, he's gonna want long term money that his injury history turns into a tough sell), and not sure Precious Achiuwa makes it back either. So as hard as this team worked, I can see a lot of turnover going into next season and while it'll be good to get back all the injured guys, I can see them making big moves (Randle, Robinson could be on the way out) and looking kinda different next year.
West
(Five) Mavs 104-92 Thunder
(Six) Thunder 116-117 Mavs
Game Six was the flip of Game Four: OKC had a nice but not overwhelming lead for most of the game, but the Mavs perfectly timed their run and stole it late. The Mavs defense impressed me: slowing down arguably the best offense in the league for 5 straight games (eh, the Mavs kinda mailed in Game One) was not something I thought they could do. I loved this OKC team and I expect them to look pretty much the same next year. Listen to me, OKC: ignore the haters and do NOT trade Josh Giddy! Don't do it! SGA and Chet and Giddy look like they've been playing together their whole lives and I think breaking them up just because the Mavs played unexpectedly good D and got crazy scoring from bench players is no reason to give up on the squad that finished #1 in the West this year. I suggest taking a run at Isiah Hartenstein and Nic Claxton, keep an eye on the availability of Isaac Okoro, Derrick Jones Jr, and Bol Bol, go ahead and take Zach Edey (Purdue) at #12 (and/or trade back for future picks) and if they're in the reclamation biz, why not give James Wiseman one more try? They need rebounding, I think the inability to get second chance opportunities put too much pressure on their offense and the Mavs stepped up into it, sucking the life out of OKC at precisely the wrong time. I still like this OKC squad as constituted by they've got to add some size this summer and I think they can upgrade their interior without making any trades.
(Five) Wolves 97-112 Nuggets
(Six) Nuggets 70-115 Wolves
(Seven) Wolves 98-90 Nuggets
Weird series: I can't recall a 7 game series where all the games were blowouts. The Wolves overcame a 20-point deficit in Game Seven, riding a 3rd quarter wave all the way to the conference finals. Jamal Murray didn't seem fully healthy to me, Michael Porter Jr just never got going, Aaron Gordon and Caldwell-Pope just didn't get buckets and though Christian Braun pitched in nicely, he didn't get buckets either. I love Jokic and I thought he was generally great but the supporting cast wasn't there and the Wolves defense put too much pressure on him. What do the Nuggets do this summer? If I was the Nuggets I'd look into what they could get for Porter (how about to Blazers for Brogdon and Robert Williams?), he's a nice spot up shooter but he clearly just can't do anything else. Otherwise they're probably just looking for vets ring-chasing and check-cashing on the way out, like Gordon Hayward, Kyle Lowry, Doug McDermott, Thaddeus Young, Robin Lopez (any of those names getting you excited?). And they might lose KCP and/or Reggie Jackson, too, so I think that bench behind the core of Jokic-Murray-Gordon is gonna get a little skimpier. I love Jokic, but he's looking like a 1-term Prez (had a lot of those lately).
Conference Finals
Pacers - Celtics
The Pacers are a nice team, good depth, not bad on defense, but they go as their leader, Tyrese Halliburton, goes and sometimes Halliburton doesn't really get going. In the four wins against the Knicks, he was great; but in the three losses, man, he sucked--and sucked in all the ways you really don't want your all-star PG to suck. That said, the Celtics are just better than the Pacers, so prime Halliburton probably doesn't get more than 2 wins in this series. As for the Celtics, I'd give Porzingis the first 2 games off, but I'd like to see him play in Game Three (especially if the Pacers take a game in Boston) or definitely by Game Four. I think the Celtics can beat the Pacers without him, but even still, he'll need to be in game shape by the Finals, so I expect him to play some in this series, even if the Celtics don't need him. You can count on the Celtics to have one truly lackluster performance, I'd put that in Game Three. I like the Celtics to win the first two at home, then give one away in Indy, but wrap it up in five. Again, I don't want to diss the Pacers, they're pretty good and they absolutely earned their way to the final four; but the Celtics have been doing this longer and they have better upfront talent (with or without Porzingis) and in general I just like the Celtics better anyway. Celtics in 5.
Mavs - Wolves
Oh, man, this is gonna be a rock fight. I think this goes 7 games, I think they're all close, and I'm only going with the Wolves because I think at the end of the day, they're tougher and more balanced. The Mavs bested OKC with a resurgence in defense that stymied one of the best offenses in the league--and if the Wolves think they're getting easy buckets, oh I don't think so. But nor will the Mavs. They won't Kyrie float like a butterfly on them, Luka will have a lot of length in his face even from deep beyond the arc and the shocking scoring skills of PJ Washington and Derek Jones will likely go back to dormancy against this attacking defense. I think the Mavs superior offense will win out enough to push this series, but I like the Wolves offense to survive the long series a little better. If the Mavs had another scorer that could be relied upon, maybe they could triangulate away that Wolves D, but I don't think the contributions they got against OKC will materialize against the Wolves. Tough series, hard fought games, I like the Wolves in 7.
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