2023-24 NHL Stanley Cup (after 4 games)

(ONE) Oilers 0-3 Panthers

Man, both of these defenses are drum-like in their tightness. I thought the Panthers had basically two good looks at the goal--finished them both--and picked up an empty netter on the way out. Meanwhile, the Oilers had zero good looks at the goal in 60 minutes and scored zero goals. This reminded me of Game One in the Eastern Conference finals where the Panthers beat the Rangers by the same score. That, too, felt like a harbinger of an all-defense series but maybe not, that series had a fair amount of scoring and the Oilers-Stars version in the West had a lot more offense. So, while this has gotten off to a full-on defensive start, that might not be the shape of it. 

The 1st goal was a nifty fast break where the third guy in the attack had just enough room to find the net because the forward defender couldn't recover in time, leaving a gap up the middle. The 2nd goal was a lovely searching pass that just happened to find the defender stretched out of position momentarily leaving an empty space in front of the net where luckily the forward was able to find the top shelf; don't want to discount its awesomeness, but the pass that led to the finish was just a piece of luck, really, a hopeful pass that was rewarded. In short, neither of those are examples of the cornerstone of the Panther attack.

I watched all of the Eastern conference Finals over the Rangers and most of the Western Finals over Dallas. My gut feeling is both of these teams have more offense and I expect this Series to loosen up, especially if Edmonton can keep it going. Not that I don't love some defensive hockey, just saying I think there's going to be goals scored. 

(TWO) Oilers 1-4 Panthers

More of the same. The Oilers took the lead early when a rather innocuous breakaway chance dribbled through Bobrovsky's legs into the goal. Bobrovsky has been getting all the love, and that's great, but it seems to me that it is the full Panther defense that is parrying away the Oiler attack. Bobrovsky has certainly been good but he's mostly getting hit in the chest by desperate shot attempts. Thought it was weird that he gave up this piece of fluff, though.

But Rodridues was able to finish two tight rips in the 3rd to seal it. And they tacked on another empty netter. 

The Panthers defense is so good that it creates patience opportunities at the other end. If the attack just maintains possession, they'll eventually find the lane. Not over yet but unless the Oilers find some kind of scoring acumen and do something to upset the Panther defense, then this one is over. 

(THREE) Panthers 4-3 Oilers

Man, this series is looking exactly like the Mavs-Celtics series: in Game Three over there, the Mavs trying to avoid a sweep, got a nice lead early, couldn't hold it, got way down to the Celtics, who fell asleep and let the Mavs back into the game late, but held on to win anyway. (Replace Mavs with Oilers and Celtics with Panthers) I'm still so amazed that Edmonton just can't get a sniff of the goal. Everyone is praising Bobrovsky, and he's playing well, but his defense in front of him is leaving him very little to do. And the Panther attack is methodical, takes its time, but is punching holes more than the Oilers can hang with. Dude, the 2nd period of this match was like target practice for the Panthers, the Oiler D was getting stretched and the keeper got peppered. 

3-0 is pretty much over--even in hockey--and, uh, yeah, this feels over to me. Maybe getting 3 goals (even in a losing effort) will ignite the attack...maybe....that could happen. But the Panthers are playing really well, I think they'll finish it in 4.

(FOUR) Panthers 1-8 Oilers

Well, now, wait a second....After 4 games the NHL Final looks an awful lot (right?) like the NBA finals. The better team is up 3-0, the drowning home team in Game Four steps and gets a big win. But the Celtics rolling over to the Mavs' last-gasp onslaught is not the same as the dominant Panthers defense getting steadily dismantled. In the first 8 periods the Oilers scored 2 goals; in the last 4 periods the Oilers scored 10 goals. The Oilers have dug a pretty deep hole, I'm not yet ready to say that they turned a corner at the end of Game Three, but I am more curious for Game Five than I thought I would be (whereas I fully expect the Celtics to rail the Mavs in Game Five and finish that series). 

The Panthers looked untouchable til the 3rd period of GameThree, were they just taking the night off in Game Four? We'll see.

(FIVE) Oilers - Panthers

Yeah, I'm getting pretty excited for tonight's match! Whereas the Celtics easily finished off the Mavs in Game Five even after a shaky performance in Game Four, it feels different over here in the hockey world. I don't think you can just mail in a game in hockey like the Celtics do from time to time in basketball. Though the Celtics fans certainly felt shaky going into Game Five, you knew and I knew that the game was going to be a triumphant Celtic stomping (and it was) because Game Four was just a fluke.

But in this series, the sheer dominance the Oilers turned on in the last 1.3 games looks like they figured something out on the Panther defense--that wasn't simply a hamfisted performance by the Panthers or a lucky night for the Oilers. That was two teams and going at it and for the first time in the series, the Oilers looked like the dominant ones. Can they keep it going? I look forward to finding out tonight.

2023-24 NBA Finals (Game One)

(ONE) Mavs 89-107 Celtics

Well, if Porzingis is awesome like this for three more games, then this series will be over in 4. The Celtics just needed Porzingis to not suck, to not be a zero out there, and he was way more than that, dominating the 1st half at both ends. If Porzingis is terrible then the Mavs might have a chance to pull a surprise, but if Porzingis is a big contributor, then the Mavs have nothing to stop that, no chance to keep up. I hate to overreact to the first game, but it was pretty clear right away that the Mavs will have to be perfect on offense to even have a chance. By perfect I mean Luka needs a very efficient 35 every night, Kyrie needs an efficient 25 every night and the rest need an efficient 30 to hang. That's a tough ask, man, this Celtics defense is pretty damn good and, again, if Porzingis is high level, the Mavs have no answer. 

Here's the real realization of Game One: holy shit, the Celtics are really fuckin' good and we all kinda knew that, but now that we're in the Championship and it is plainly obvious that this squad is just about perfect. Even without Porzingis they should still beat the Mavs, but with a healthy Porzingis, they have way too much for the Mavs to hang with. I'm even really impressed with the minutes the Celtics have been getting out of Luke Kornet and Sam Hauser, I figured they would go away for the Final, but, no, I think I expect to see them playing pretty good minutes. 

The Celtics had great success in Game One on shutting down the dunker-spot contribution of the Mavs offense. If the Celtics continue to take that away, I'd suggest gang tackling on Kyrie and just letting Luka do whatever he wants. If Luka goes for 50 every night but the Celtics shut down everything else....this'll be over in 4. 

The really fascinating wrinkle that could appear: what if the Celtics stomp the Mavs in 4 games even with Luka being amazing every night....but Tatum doesn't do anything? What if Porzingis is the big hero or Jaylen Brown goes off a coupla nights in a row or we all acknowledge that the real winner is the Celtics stifling team defense (led by Derrick White and Jrue Holiday) or the superior acumen of the much maligned Coach Mazzulo or we really begin to appreciate the terrific job that GM Brad Stevens has done putting this squad together....what does that do for the Tatum-is-the-man narrative? Is it just a joke for them to laugh about next season or is it a cloud that hangs over a team that's kinda built to dominate for the next few years? (Yup, this series is already so over that I'm peeking ahead to what could happen next year)

2023-24 NBA Championship (Predictions)

East

Pacers 128-133 (OT) Celtic

Pacers 110-126 Celtics

Celtics 114-111 Pacers

Celtics 105-102 Pacers

Game Two was the big fave blowout game, Game Four was the team in control finishing the job. But the other two matches were nailbiters--and gotta say: the Pacers lost Game One and Game Three more than the Celtics won them. If the Pacers make the right plays late or at least bring some ruckus in the OT, they very easily could've been up early on the road. But....they didn't make the plays, the Celtics ripped them in OT and then ripped them some more in Game Two, went up 2-0, and looked like the dominant Eastern champs that they've been all season. 

The Pacers, again, had their chance to steal Game Three--the gentleman's sweep game. But, again, the Pacers failed to capitalize and the Celtics handled their business. Game Four was good effort from the Pacers, the Celtics did well to squeeze the life out of this squad. 

I was impressed with the Pacers. They faced a schizophrenic and battered Bucks squad, managed to outlast the Intensive Care Knicks, had some real toe-to-tie moments with the Eastern champs, they made the most of their run. They overachieved but this team can score. This team is good, if they run this back, they can expect to be better just on the normal maturation of Halliburton, Turner, Jackson and Benedict Mathurin (who didn't play at all in this series) and another year of Siakim getting acclimated to the rotation, so if the other East teams are gonna fart around, this Pacers team could be top 3 next season--it isn't that crazy. 

Myles Turner gets buckets! I think they'd be crazy to trade him (though he's been one of the buzziest names in the league for years). Tyrese Halliburton had a tough season, started brilliantly--and that was after a fine performance in the FIBA World Cup last summer--but then ran into injury woes, which he was forced to play through to get his bonuses. I love Halliburton, but he's not yet a 4th quarter assassin, when he fully matures into his All-NBA self, he'll win the games that he let get away (like One and Three). Pascal Siakam, who I presume is re-signing with the Pacers (right?), is one that I have long thought of as a top flight 3rd banana, had some for-real moments of carrying this team (albeit without having to face Kristaps Prozingis). I liked Andrew Nembhard (made some cold blooded plays), Aaron Nesmith (seems like the prototypical 3-and-D guy), Ben Sheppard (nice minutes off the bench), they got nice defensive minutes from Isaiah Jackson, and I've loved TJ McConnell for years, these guys keep the speed high and they put points on the board. I'm guessing they'll wildly overpay Siakam, not sure what happens with Obi Toppin (who has tantalizing moments, but I'm not convinced he'll develop into a reliable baller). I think the Pacers are poised to be pretty good next season (and it'd probably be a mistake to trade away McConnell, but he is exactly what some other teams (Wolves, Nuggets, Lakers) are looking for, so if they could get back two rotation guys for him, it might be worth looking into). 

West

Mavs 108-105 Wolves

Mavs 109-108 Wolves

Wolves 107-116 Mavs

Wolves 105-100 Mavs

Mavs 103-124 Wolves

The Mavs went on the road and won the first two games in Minnesota--double shocker! They made the plays to seal the victories and the Wolves did not. I think losing the first two games just right off doomed the Wolves. The games were all close (though Game Four was the least intensity the Mavs played since Game One against OKC), but the Mavs had the reliable buckets and the Wolves couldn't get there. Both teams played well on defense, the Mavs offense had more flavor, especially late.

Ultimately the banner headline of this series is that the Wolves are not a 4th quarter team. They've got a good mix of size, ball handling, youth/veterans to get through a game, but they don't yet have the zazz that it takes to finish out close games. They need to win big to be secure and I reckon the Wolves should be a good regular season team next year. The Mavs, on the other hand, have two relentless scorers and a bevy of a role players that know how to complement them. The Mavs fairly well cruised through Game Three, inexplicably rolled over in Game Four and then brought the hard wood in Game Five, a laugher (to go 3-0 in Minnesota) and finish the Series in five games. 

The Wolves took a great leap forward this season, not unexpectedly--though I sure didn't think they'd win a Game Seven in Denver. They feature size all over the court and a swarming defense that (okay, I'll say it) reminded me of the Parcells-Lawrence Taylor NYG gang tackling attack. At their best, they were near the top of the West all season long, destroyed the Suns, flat out humbled the great Nikola Jokic (in Game 7 in Denver!) and looked to be the faves to finish off the Mavs. Then the troubles started...we learned that the platoon of Anthony Edwards and Mike Conley is a bit on the half-baked side. Edwards isn't yet a game winner and Conley, savvy vet that he is, just doesn't have the command on the court making their offensive attack too young and simultaneously too old. Throw in that Karl Anthony Towns is an unpredictable crazy man (wow, so many dumb fouls!) and Rudy Gobert goes through stretches of being incapable of scoring (dude, you're never more than two feet from the basket--how can you not score!?!??), and this squad just doesn't have the solidity to play a complete game just yet. I'm not sure Jaden McDaniels was effectively utilized in this series (I would've put him on Kyrie rather than Luka) and Naz Reid's minutes were haphazardly mixed and mingled with Towns. This is still a good team as constituted but (I sure ain't the first to say this) they ought to see what Towns can bring them in a trade package; not a bad player, but pretty expensive for his unpredictability. 

Finals

Mavs @ Celtics

The Celtics dominated the East all season long. The Knicks were spunky but faced too many injuries, the Bucks were up-and-down and when Giannis got hurt, they were just down. I thought the Sixers were pretty overrated and with Embiid's injury woes, they never struck me as terribly dangerous. The Heat had one of their mail-in seasons (about every other year for them). The Cavs and the Magic are eerily similar in their "okay"-ness. And it was the Pacers that emerged in the playoffs--not a fluke, but not as good as the Celtics. So the rest of the East didn't really matter, as none of those squads were likely to compete with the Celtics anyway.

The Mavs missed the playoffs last season due to a team decision to tank for a top 10 pick, which netted them Derrick Lively (so organizationally they made the correct choice). They were a pretty good, top half of the table team in the West for the first half of the season, riding a top flight season by Luka. The real jump was picking up PJ Washington (Hornets) and Daniel Gafford (Wizards) at the trade deadline, which solidified their defense, allowed even more offensive focus for Lively thereby remaking the core into the toughest out this post-season. They rather easily dispatched the Clippers (for, like the 10th year in a row), took advantage of OKC not being ready to go deep in the playoffs (young and awesome....but young), and similarly found a Wolves team that had perhaps overachieved by beating Denver. The Mavs ended up with the best possible path by not having to play the Nuggets or (strangely) the Lakers, and matching up with two teams that just aren't ready yet instead. 

So are the Mavs really the best in the West? No but the West is really tight and Dallas is deservedly among the best. Are the Mavs gonna be back next year? I wouldn't bet on it, way too much competition out there to just anoint them here and now. And seeing Anthony Davis, Giannis and Jokic turn into one-and-dones in rapid succession suggests that there are a lot of great players right now, the depth of even the worst franchise is still pretty amazing, and look how hard Tatum and Brown have worked to get to the pinnacle. 

This should be a fun series. Whereas the Wolves and the Pacers couldn't close games, both of these squads are used to winning and I think a long series is in the cards. So far the Celtics have done it all without Porzingis because the East was, well, so winnable that they didn't even need the guy that has arguably been their offensive table-setter all season long. I would've liked to see him play a little against the Pacers, but hopefully he's practicing at a high level right now, and game shape will come easy to him. They can ease him into the lineup, I think I'd use him as a 6th man curveball to start, see if they can maximize him at both ends right away, then think about getting him back to the starting lineup (and putting Horford back in chaos-off-the-bench mode). The Tatum-Brown-White-Holiday core have been chugging along nicely and while I generally like the production they've been getting from their bench, I suspect Kornet and Brissett will be sharply curtailed to some end of quarter minutes, Hauser and Tillman are out of the rotation from here on out and even Pritchard will have a pretty short leash. So the Porzingis minutes are crucial and if he's not right, that's where it goes badly for the Celtics. They could still win with the bench they've been winning with, but the Mavs are cooking right now, not sure they can count on that. 

The Mavs have Luka at the peak of his powers and Kyrie at his most snake-in-the-grass-ness and a supporting cast that is rounding out nicely. Washington got buckets against OKC (though not as much against anyone else), Gafford got stops, Lively is the perfect complement for Luka and Kyrie at both ends, Exum has had useful minutes keeping the pace off the bench, Josh Green and Jaden Hardy have had nice moments. This is a really good squad and that's with minimal (for various reasons) input from their veteran core of Tim Hardaway, Maxi Kleber and Dwight Powell, any of whom could suddenly appear and make plays. This team has everything they need to win. If they come full-on for 7 games, this series will go 7 games.

I think the Celtics are the better team, the Mavs are the deeper team. The Mavs have potentially more reliable offense and even more stifling defense. The Celtics are the big favorite in Vegas but it is not plainly obvious that they are wildly better than the Mavs. Throw in that the Celtics are good for at least one giveaway game per series and it doesn't seem at all crazy that this will go 7 games and anyone can win. 

I fear, though, that the Mavs will either be Luka or Kyrie, whereas the Celtics have an array of scorers that can produce a flourish of buckets. So I expect the Mavs to win on nights when they're shooting with deadly accuracy, but the Celtics should have many nights of more shots, more buckets. 

The real wild card is Porzingis. If he's awesome, the Celtics could wrap this up quick whereas if he's truly awful or unplayabale, the Celtics could fall into a rut of lazy shooting (that is the Celtics kryptonite) and get smoked. I think Porzingis will be good not great, he will be fine, which is really all the Celtics need to bolster everyone else's game. I reckon he'll have one good game, maybe 1-2 bad ones, but for the most part I think he's gonna give 7 good games of production. 

I like the Celtics in 6 (2,3,5,6). I think the Mavs pull a shocker in Game One (fascinating to see Kyrie win it late), then the Celtics re-group, take Games Two and Three, the Mavs claw back Game Four (Luka goes for fitty), the Celtics cruise in Game Five and then seal it on the road.

I'll take Tatum as MVP and Man of the Match in Game Six. I think Brown has at least one balls out game, as does Porzingis and White, Holiday and Horford should all be solid. Looking back, the buzzy love for the Mavs supporting cast will start to fade and then we'll be off to debating whether this is one of the great Celtic champions of all time--and get some wildly conflicting responses. Dang, I just laid it all out, let's see what happens. 

2023-24 NBA Playoffs (Conference Finals)

East

(Game Five) Cavs 98-113 Celtics

Yup, gentleman's sweep. Sounds about right. The Cavs have a weird summer ahead: do they trade Donovan Mitchell (likely won't re-sign next summer) or Darius Garland (highest paid player on the roster)? Do they trade Jarrett Allen (kinda ugly behind-the-scenes report on him) or figure out how to play him with Evan Mobley? Does bringing back Isaac Okoro revolve around any of the potential trades above? Is there anyone that wants Georges Niang (liked him in Philly but he just doesn't fit in this lineup)? For a recently rebuilt team with good young talent that made the quarterfinals, the Cavs have more questions than answer going forward--which is not to say that they'll be bad next year. If they can navigate the landscape, they might be awesome, but they've got some work to do.  

(Five) Pacers 91-121 Knicks

(Six) Knicks 103-116 Pacers

(Seven) Pacers 130-109 Knicks

The Pacers looked so bad in their three losses, it's almost hard to remember that they actually won this series. And, even then, well, I mean, the Knicks had nobody left to play by the time Game Seven rolled around. But the Pacers handled their business by shooting the lights out in the 1st half of Game Seven; the Knicks went on a run after halftime, but the Pacers countered, restored the lead they had at halftime, then when Jalen Brunson went down with a broken hand (after OG Anunoby broke down almost immediately), and that was that. The Knicks had a nice season but injuries absolutely wrecked them--and Brunson, Donte DiVincenzo. Josh Hart and Isiah Hartenstein still almost got them to the next round. Knicks fans should hold their heads high today--and I haven't thought that since the mid-1990s. I think they'll move on from Bogdanovic (clearly not a Thibs fave), I think they'll lose Hartenstein (OKC ought to take a run at him), I think Alec Burks passed his Lakers audition with flying colors, they've got a big decision to make about re-signing Anunoby (man, he's gonna want long term money that his injury history turns into a tough sell), and not sure Precious Achiuwa makes it back either. So as hard as this team worked, I can see a lot of turnover going into next season and while it'll be good to get back all the injured guys, I can see them making big moves (Randle, Robinson could be on the way out) and looking kinda different next year. 

West

(Five) Mavs 104-92 Thunder

(Six) Thunder 116-117 Mavs

Game Six was the flip of Game Four: OKC had a nice but not overwhelming lead for most of the game, but the Mavs perfectly timed their run and stole it late. The Mavs defense impressed me: slowing down arguably the best offense in the league for 5 straight games (eh, the Mavs kinda mailed in Game One) was not something I thought they could do. I loved this OKC team and I expect them to look pretty much the same next year. Listen to me, OKC: ignore the haters and do NOT trade Josh Giddy! Don't do it! SGA and Chet and Giddy look like they've been playing together their whole lives and I think breaking them up just because the Mavs played unexpectedly good D and got crazy scoring from bench players is no reason to give up on the squad that finished #1 in the West this year. I suggest taking a run at Isiah Hartenstein and Nic Claxton, keep an eye on the availability of Isaac Okoro, Derrick Jones Jr, and Bol Bol, go ahead and take Zach Edey (Purdue) at #12 (and/or trade back for future picks) and if they're in the reclamation biz, why not give James Wiseman one more try? They need rebounding, I think the inability to get second chance opportunities put too much pressure on their offense and the Mavs stepped up into it, sucking the life out of OKC at precisely the wrong time. I still like this OKC squad as constituted by they've got to add some size this summer and I think they can upgrade their interior without making any trades.

(Five) Wolves 97-112 Nuggets

(Six) Nuggets 70-115 Wolves

(Seven) Wolves 98-90 Nuggets

Weird series: I can't recall a 7 game series where all the games were blowouts. The Wolves overcame a 20-point deficit in Game Seven, riding a 3rd quarter wave all the way to the conference finals. Jamal Murray didn't seem fully healthy to me, Michael Porter Jr just never got going, Aaron Gordon and Caldwell-Pope just didn't get buckets and though Christian Braun pitched in nicely, he didn't get buckets either. I love Jokic and I thought he was generally great but the supporting cast wasn't there and the Wolves defense put too much pressure on him. What do the Nuggets do this summer? If I was the Nuggets I'd look into what they could get for Porter (how about to Blazers for Brogdon and Robert Williams?), he's a nice spot up shooter but he clearly just can't do anything else. Otherwise they're probably just looking for vets ring-chasing and check-cashing on the way out, like Gordon Hayward, Kyle Lowry, Doug McDermott, Thaddeus Young, Robin Lopez (any of those names getting you excited?). And they might lose KCP and/or Reggie Jackson, too, so I think that bench behind the core of Jokic-Murray-Gordon is gonna get a little skimpier. I love Jokic, but he's looking like a 1-term Prez (had a lot of those lately). 

Conference Finals

Pacers - Celtics

The Pacers are a nice team, good depth, not bad on defense, but they go as their leader, Tyrese Halliburton, goes and sometimes Halliburton doesn't really get going. In the four wins against the Knicks, he was great; but in the three losses, man, he sucked--and sucked in all the ways you really don't want your all-star PG to suck. That said, the Celtics are just better than the Pacers, so prime Halliburton probably doesn't get more than 2 wins in this series. As for the Celtics, I'd give Porzingis the first 2 games off, but I'd like to see him play in Game Three (especially if the Pacers take a game in Boston) or definitely by Game Four. I think the Celtics can beat the Pacers without him, but even still, he'll need to be in game shape by the Finals, so I expect him to play some in this series, even if the Celtics don't need him. You can count on the Celtics to have one truly lackluster performance, I'd put that in Game Three. I like the Celtics to win the first two at home, then give one away in Indy, but wrap it up in five. Again, I don't want to diss the Pacers, they're pretty good and they absolutely earned their way to the final four; but the Celtics have been doing this longer and they have better upfront talent (with or without Porzingis) and in general I just like the Celtics better anyway. Celtics in 5.

Mavs - Wolves

Oh, man, this is gonna be a rock fight. I think this goes 7 games, I think they're all close, and I'm only going with the Wolves because I think at the end of the day, they're tougher and more balanced. The Mavs bested OKC with a resurgence in defense that stymied one of the best offenses in the league--and if the Wolves think they're getting easy buckets, oh I don't think so. But nor will the Mavs. They won't Kyrie float like a butterfly on them, Luka will have a lot of length in his face even from deep beyond the arc and the shocking scoring skills of PJ Washington and Derek Jones will likely go back to dormancy against this attacking defense. I think the Mavs superior offense will win out enough to push this series, but I like the Wolves offense to survive the long series a little better. If the Mavs had another scorer that could be relied upon, maybe they could triangulate away that Wolves D, but I don't think the contributions they got against OKC will materialize against the Wolves. Tough series, hard fought games, I like the Wolves in 7.

2023-24 NBA Playoffs (2nd round, 4 games in)

East

Celtics 106-93 Cavs

Celtics 109-102 Cavs

See? When the Celtics just play a normal game, they beat the Cavs because they are the better team. Certainly possible the Celtics let another game slip away but I doubt it. They're poised to finish this in 5 and I think they will.

Knicks 106-111 Pacers

Knicks 89-121 Pacers

The Knicks are down to the fumes, while it feels like the Pacers are getting healthier and deeper. Brunson is still a monster (MVP of the playoffs, so far?) and still quite capable of keeping this series alive, but I just don't see how the Knicks win this without Randle, Onunoby, Robinson and Bogdanovic. Don't like to complain about the refs--and I like the mid-season changes to let the games get more physical--but the problem is that the calls now seem kinda random. This series in particular has a ton of moments where you go, 'Wait, you called that? You let them beat each other up all the way down the court and then called that?'  In general I prefer swallowing the whistle and not stopping for free throws every 30 seconds, but that did create a clearer template of what the refs were looking for. I never know what the refs are gonna call and that's not exactly a great leap forward. I still feel like the Pacers have more legs and should win 2 of the next 3 games but the refs could still play a part. 

West

Thunder 101-105 Mavs

Thunder 100-96 Mavs

Whoa! Game Four was one of the most puzzling games I've ever watched. The Mavs were great, did everything they wanted at both ends, had a nice lead throughout, the crowd was going nuts, while the Thunder struggled at every phase, no one shot well, the defense was spotty and they are seemingly incapable of getting an offensive rebound....and yet with 4 minutes to go, the Mavs were up by 3....wtf? How is the game close? Frankly, if the Mavs had made some FT's, they would've won by 20--this game would've been long over by the end of the 3rd quarter. Worth pointing out that Luka didn't really do much and Kyrie was playmaking more than getting buckets, I guess that's why they just didn't have the advantage on points, but neither of them played badly and the Mavs were pretty much in control all the way. I will say, the Thunder did a good job of keeping the Mavs from running away with the game (well, they gave the Mavs plenty of chances to score at the FT line) and as the clock wound down, the Thunder got hot enough to get themselves back in it. But, still, I watched the whole game and I still can't believe the Mavs didn't win by double digits. The Thunder are struggling against the Mavs' suddenly all-world defense but an interesting thing is that the entire Thunder roster is struggling right now, no one is abysmal but none of them are playing well and that is weird because the Thunder's super power is that they never really stop scoring--somebody's getting buckets! On the other side, PJ Washington and Derek Jones Jr are playing out of their minds and while the Mavs aren't exactly running up the score, no one is playing badly over there. This series is a puzzle, I don't really understand what I'm looking at: feels like the Thunder are naturally the better team but they're not taking the most advantage of their chances; meanwhile it feels like the Mavs are playing some of their best ball right now and yet the series is still tie up. (Oh, and throw in the ref stuff from above--this series is all over the place in terms of flow because the refs are randomly appearing) This is going 7, right?

Nuggets 117-90 Wolves

Nuggets 115-107 Wolves

Yeah, I knew the Nuggets were too good to get swept. But Jamal Murray clearly isn't 100%, so I knew they were in trouble. But the Wolves mailed in Game Three and never got going in Game Four, so we are tied up going back to Denver. So, are the Nuggets back to normal? Well, Murray is not tip top and Michael Porter Jr is still just a minor piece, so the Wolves still have the firepower to get the Nuggets off-balance. My gut is the Nuggets are the better team, Jokic is the best player and they will win Game Five and Game Seven back home.

2023-24 NBA Playoffs (2nd round, 2 games in)

East

Cavs 95-120 Celtics

Cavs 118-94 Celtics

Game One was a yawn as the Cavs just never got going and the Celtics cruised. Game Two was all about the Celtics just not hitting shots, which allowed the Cavs to build up the lead after halftime. In the 1st game the Celtics got nice contributions from their bench, but in the 2nd game....not so much. The panic is real, the Celtic fans are nervous--to which I say, relax. The Celtics just didn't make their shots, if they shoot like normal, they'd win this game easily and even if they just shot okay, this game still would've been winnable. Going back to Cleveland, I expect the Celtics to dominate at least one of the games (probably Game Three) and might even steal the other and be back in position to win in Game Five. The Cavs are a nice team but the Celtics really have to not score in order for the Cavs to win. This series is unexpectedly tied up, but I'm not worried (yet) about the Celtics.

Pacers 117-121 Knicks

Pacers 121-130 Knicks

The Pacers are pretty salty about the officiating in this series so far and while I normally don't cotton to ref talk, the way they got jobbed on the final possession of Game One was egregious. How do you call a moving screen in the final minute of the game? In Game Two, Jalen Brunson got hurt, went out of the game for a good 15 minutes and the Pacers were clearly the superior squad in his absence; but when he returned after halftime, Brunson was unstoppable and lifted the Knicks back up (even though OG Anunoby got hurt and left--probably for the series!). The Pacers have the deeper bench as the series heads back to Indy, I expect that to matter, so I think the Pacers will win the next two games. The Knicks are now without Julius Randle, Bojan Bogdanovic, Mitchell Robinson and (it appears) OG Anunoby--and with Brunson nursing something. If the Pacers can get Tyrese Halliburton back to the FIBA monster he was last summer, then the Pacers should have the depth to get back in this series and if they can just withstand Brunson, they can still win. Not only is this series not over, I think I like the Pacers to win 4 of the next 5 games, the Knicks are just too skimpy right now (and Josh Hart is on pace to average the most minutes in playoff history). 

West

Mavs 95-117 Thunder

Mavs 119-110 Thunder

(Hmmmm....ditto the Cavs-Celtics series..?) Game One was a snooze as the home team Thunder cruised without much effort. But in Game Two, the Thunder had scoring troubles (not something the Thunder do very often) and it gave the Mavs the chance to steal one on the road. On the one hand, I was way more impressed with the Mavs' defense than I expected to be; but, come on, the Thunder had shots they normally make and they just didn't go down. Throw in that PJ Washington went for 29, which I don't expect to happen again, and this is something of a fluke result. Not that the Mavs suck but I think OKC is better and ready to outscore them consistently, whereas in Game Two, no one shot well, Shai seemed sluggish, Giddy was a net negative and Chet did little to contribute. The Mavs are good, this series should go for a while but in Game Two, the Thunder just had a bad night, I still expect them to move on to the next round. 

Wolves 106-99 Nuggets

Wolves 106-80 Nuggets

Ohhhhh fuuuuuuuu-dge! Game One was a nice win for the Wolves, who came in with a serious intensity and, unlike most of the Nuggets' opponents for the last coupla seasons, didn't fold in the 4th quarter. Nice win. Game Two, on the other hand, was a straight up drubbing, the likes of which we haven't seen Jokic endure for a while now. Jokic is clearly struggling with the length of the Wolves defenders, Jamal Murray doesn't look healthy and Michael Porter Jr--after something of a breakout performance against the Lakers in the first round--is back to his one-dimensional self. The Nuggets look to be in some serious trouble as their world-beating home court advantage has completely vanished, but the Nuggets are still the champs and I except them to compete much better back in Minnesota--I do not expect a sweep. That said, it'll be a fierce uphill climb and winning 4 of the next 5 looks out of reach. 

2023-24 NBA Playoffs (1st round, 4 games in)

East

Heat 1-3 Celtics

After taking the night off in Game Two, the Celtics are back on track and making it clear that they are vastly more talented than the Heat. Porzingis left Game Four, will it become a problem? (Well, not for this series, but the Celtics need KP to reach their peak) Even without Porzingis, this should be over in five. 

Sixers 1-3 Knicks

The Sixers are such an inconsistent squad, it's hard to see how they have any kind of shot of winning 3 straight. Buddy Hield is completely out of the rotation, (oh--I forgot Robert Covington was even on the Sixers!), Tobias Harris is just inert, Joel Embiid is occasionally feisty and brilliant but more often just hobbled and ineffective, Kyle Lowry is doing yeoman's work (but not much more than that) and this team is pretty much just Tyrese Maxey by himself. The Knicks are rounding into shape (and definitely keeping an eye on that Porzinigis injury), I think this will be over in Game Five. 

Pacers 3-1 Bucks

If you needed any reminder of how awesome Giannis is just remember that if he were in the lineup, the Bucks would be a for-real contender in the East but without him, the Bucks kinda stink. There is no depth, no defense, no reliable scoring outside of Middleton--good god, they've even had to break the emergency glass on Danilo Galinari, a move that does not inspire confidence. Unless Damian Lillard returns, the Bucks have zero shot at winning this series (and even if he does return, they have almost zero shot in this series). The Pacers aren't really doing anything amazing, the Bucks are just that bad. I give the Bucks a puncher's chance in Game Five, but this should be wrapped in six. 

Magic 2-2 Cavs

This one is going seven games and I like the home team to win all 7. In the playoffs, the supporting cast shines in home games (and disappears on the road) and both of these teams need the full weight of their depth to get ahead, so I'm favoring the home teams and sticking with the Cavs in 7.

West

Pelicans 0-4 Thunder

The Pelicans shot their wad in Game One, the Thunder survived and then mushed the Pels like a bug for the next three games. If the Pelicans had Zion, this would've been a bit more of a challenge but without him, the Thunder rather easily outscored them. Now the Thunder get a break while the Mavs and Clippers wear each other out (I think Thunder fans can go ahead and buy their Conference Final tickets).

Lakers 1-4 Nuggets

Yeah, I'm not shocked the Lakers were able to hold on to Game Four, the Nuggets had a pretty terrible shooting night--and still almost came back to win it. And, yeah, I'm not shocked that in two of the four wins the Nuggets needed the final possession  to seal the victory. The Lakers played the Nuggets close last year and played them close again this year. But the Nuggets are too good, man, and though the length of the Lakers was problematic for them, their scoring and overall offensive efficiency is just too much for the Lakers to hang with. That said, the Wolves are going to be a problem for the Nuggets....

Suns 0-4 Wolves

The Suns swept the Wolves in the regular season, including two wins in the last coupla weeks and this felt like it was going to be a dog fight of a series. But....nah, not so much. The Suns are basically just Booker and Durant (just like last year) and without Grayson Allen (yeah, the Suns were toast without Grayson Allen?!??), there just wasn't enough scoring to hang with the Wolves. The Wolves are frankly a fucked-up Frankenstein monster squad, but when they pull it together, they are the only team that can truly hang with the Nuggets and Celtics. They've got long arms, a deep bench, and though the scoring sometimes disappears for no reason, they generally have a good offense, too. They were gonna have to beat the Nuggets at some point, now is the time. 

Mavs 2-2 Clippers

Neither of these teams are good enough to win, they only win when the other team just doesn't show up. The Mavs were utterly useless in Game One, the Clippers utterly useless in Game Three. The Clippers should've won Game Two but fumbled it away, the Clippers had a massive lead early in Game Four and almost gave that away. It's like both of these teams are just waiting to lose and hoping the other team loses first. I still have this going 7 games but increasingly I think the winner will likely get smoked by OKC--a team that knows who they are and will have an extra 5 days or so to prepare for the next round. 

2023-24 NBA Playoffs (2 games in)

East

1: Heat 94-114 Celtics

2: Heat 111-101 Celtics

Game One....(yawn)....was over before I turned it on, the score only looks close because the Celtics completely stopped playing with, like, 10 mins left. Game Two was maybe the most shocking result of the season. But let's dig into the numbers: the Heat had their best shooting game of the entire season while for the Celtics, Porzingis totally sucked and Payton Pritchard in 20 minutes managed to do...absolutely nothing. And while actually Tatum and Brown were both pretty good in Game Two, the rest of the squad just couldn't get buckets and that's not like this year's Celtics. So was Game Two a fluke or are the Celtics ready to fold? Yeah....I'm going with "fluke". Tyler Herro hadn't had a good shooting night in (seems like) months and as much as I love Bam Adebayo, I think his dominance of Porzingis was likely just a good night that won't be repeated. I had Celtics in 5, which I figured was too much after Game One, but after Game Two I'd say the Celtics are back on the gentleman's sweep path because I fully expect them  to outplay the Heat in the next three games. 

1: Sixers 104-111 Knicks

2: Sixers 101-104 Knicks

Game One was a hard fought contest but the Knicks were the better team. Game Two was hard fought, too, and though history may well record that the Knicks got lucky down the stretch, I'd say it isn't that simple. Frankly the Knicks should've won and had the game in hand in the 4th quarter, until the Sixers rode a nice stretch to a lead in the final minute, which the Knicks overcame by making the hustle plays (hat tip to Josh Hart) and making the big shots (hat tip to Donte DiVincenzo). So even though MVP candidate Jalen Brunson looks completely fustigated by Tyrese Maxey, the Sixers just don't have enough to compete. The overly maligned Tobias Harris has been awful, the once-promising Buddy Hield just doesn't look like he wants to play, Nicolaus Batum already had an out-of-body game in the play-in (are you really expecting him to have another one of those this year?) and Joel Embiid is fighting too many injuries to be reliable (though he's clearly working his ass off). Maxey has been great for the Sixers but he's pretty much the only one and I don't see how he can do it all himself. This series will still produce tough contests but I like the Knicks to take one of the next two games and have a good shot at wrapping this up in 5 games. 

1: Pacers 94-109 Bucks

2: Pacers 125-108 Bucks

Okay, it is officially panic time in Milwaukee. The Bucks have been lackluster all year (hmmmm, well, really only since they mutinied against Coach Griffin to bring in Coach Doc) and with Giannis nursing a calf injury (I thought that was strictly a FIFA injury), the Bucks had better get their shit together pronto if they expect to get past Indy. That said, the Bucks looked pretty dominant in Game One and then utterly incapable in Game Two, so which is it? For the Pacers, really only Pascal Siakim is balling (he's killing the Bucks), but so far they're seemingly steady enough to outlast the schizo Bucks. If the Bucks can last til Game Seven, then hopefully Giannis can come back and make a difference--that's their only hope. I think the listing Bucks can stay even with the Pacers for a while, though they better get their offense in tune if they're going to outscore Siakim, so I will stick with the Bucks in 7 for now (but, man.....they gotta stretch this series to even have a prayer). 

1: Magic 83-97 Cavs

2: Magic 86-96 Cavs

Felt like two fairly evenly matched teams going into the series but the Cavs are clearly just a more reliable offense. The Magic are nice but just don't have the firepower to keep up. Again, I expect the Cavs to take one of the next two games and wrap this up in 5. 

West

1: Pelicans 92-94 Thunder

2: Pelicans 92-124 Thunder

The Pelicans kinda scared the Thunder in Game One but the Thunder made the plays late to steal the W. In Game Two, the Thunder moved the ball well, got buckets and rather easily outpaced the Pelicans. I think the Pelicans still present some matchup problems (Jonas "FIBA" Valenciunas!) and should steal a game or two, but they don't have the scoring depth (w/out Zion) to hang for long. The Thunder are the better team and should finish this in 5 (or maybe 6) games. 

1: Lakers 103-114 Nuggets

2: Lakers 99-101 Nuggets

Oh, man, if the Lakers couldn't pull out Game Two, then I just don't see how they win at all. The Lakers were pretty great for about three quarters, but the Nuggets took over in the 4th and Jamal Murray finished the easy-as-you-please buzzer beater to snatch the commanding lead. So far, Anthony Davis has played pretty great, Lebron started great in the first game and finished great in the second, and the rest of the supporting cast has been pretty good (Hachimura not so much, D'Angelo Russell kinda sucked in Game One but was kinda great in Game Two), but it just doesn't matter. Jokic is so damn good and the rest of the cast knows exactly what they're supposed to do and clearly the defending champs are gonna be a tough out. Feels like another sweep is coming, though I can see the Lakers stealing a home game, I guess (but I'd be kinda shocked if this goes more than five games). 

1: Suns 95-120 Wolves

2: Suns 93-105 Wolves

The Sun have no chance. Their only hope was to simply outscore the neophyte Wolves but it ain't happening. The Wolves defense is too much and the offense is good enough to get past the Suns (even if Anthony Edwards struggles as he has so far). If the Suns offense was as good as they think it is, they'd be tough to beat but it isn't and the D isn't noteworthy at all. This looked to me like the classic home-team-wins-all-games kinda series--and it still could be--but I don't see it any more. The Suns swept the Wolves in the regular season but that feels like a rope-a-dope now, the Suns are struggling to even be in these games now. The Wolves will take one of these next two games in Phoenix and finish it in 5. 

1: Mavs 97-109 Clippers

2: Mavs 96-93 Clippers

The Mavs simply did not show up in Game One but turned it around nicely in Game Two (especially in the 2nd half). I can't help thinking that the Clippers really are the better team but they're sloppy and Kawhi isn't quite ready to get wins. This should go 7 games, which gives Kawhi more time to play himself into shape. Peak Clippers is better than peak Mavs but the Mavs feel more likely to get closer to their peak than the Clippers; but if the Clippers can keep the series alive, then I think they have the better chance of finding the magic at the bottom of their bag. I initially had the Mavs in 7 but I think I like the Clippers to catch up and over take the Mavs by Game Seven (but if the Clippers don't win at least one of the next two games, this might be done a lot quicker). 

2023-24 NBA (End of season awards)

MVP

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder)

Gotta do it, man, he's just been so great this year leading the youngest team to ever finish 1st in the West. Head-to-head with Jokic, their numbers are comparable; Jokic kills Shai on Rebounds but Shai has more FTA and a better asst:to and, again, he finished first in the West, so....Shai had a great year, now time to do it in the post-season.

Runners-up: Nikola Jokic (Nuggets), Giannis Antetokounpo (Bucks), Luka Doncic (Mavs), Jalen Brunson (Knicks)

Rookie of the Year

Victor Wembanyama (Spurs)

Wemby led all rookies in FG, FGA, FT, FTA, offensive and defensive and total rebounds, steals, blocks (led the league--BY A MILE!), and points (also Turnovers, though 3rd in Assists). If Wemby never got any better than this, he'd still be in all-star contention every year but this is just the start for this guy. I thought that he would put up nice stats (he did better than that) on a shitty team (well, yeah) and he'd probably get shut down by season's end (nah, he did this in the next to last game of the season--a game the Nuggets actually needed to win!) and that we'd all look back and see that Holmgren was contributing as a rookie to a really good team (#1 in the West) and ultimately that would be more impressive to voters. Hey, man, don't wanna knock Chet--he was great--but Wemby did it all and looked better doing it. To me, ROY is a forward-looking award, namely who has the brightest future and if you want to argue that Chet contributing right away is better than putting up stats on a team not even trying to win, well, okay, that is a worthwhile data point in Chet's favor. But that's the only one. This is Wemby's league now, doubt that at your peril! Who else in the NBA does this?

Runner-ups: Chet Holmgren (Thunder), Brandon Miller (Hornets) (the top 3 is clear, the next 8-10 are purely subjective)

Defensive Player of the Year

Anthony Davis (Lakers)

Impressive season from Davis, wasn't sure he'd have another one, but he was healthier than he's been in his Laker tenure and played a ton of minutes. Only guy in the top 20 in Steals and Blocks (though still well behind rookie Wemby in Steals + Blocks) and 3rd overall in defensive rebounds. Throw in a positive assist:turnover rate and being top ten in free throw attempts and it is clear that he cleaned up on the defensive end and was still a load for his opponents on the offensive end. Davis had a great season and though I've predicted him to win DPOY for many years now, I believe this is the first time I ever thought he was truly worthy. 

Runner-ups: Victor Wembanyama (Spurs), Rudy Gobert (Wolves), Nikola Jokic (Nuggets), Giannis Antetokounpo (Bucks)

6th Man

Bogdan Bogdanovich (Hawks)

I thought Bogie had the best all-around numbers. Word is the Hawks will be going through a tumultuous off-season (either Trae Young or Dejounte Murray has to go), I'll be curious to see if anyone makes a big balls offer for this guy. 

Runner-ups: Bobby Portis (Bucks), Naz Reid (Wolves), Keldon Johnson (Spurs), Malik Monk (Kings)

Coach of the Year

Mark Daigneault (Thunder)

The Thunder became the youngest team to ever finish #1 in the West and obviously Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the main driver of that. But I'd say Daigneault's handling of the rest of the rotation (I love all of those guys!) put them over the top. A great season for the Thunder...now they gotta do it in the playoffs.

Runner-ups: Joe Mazzulo (Celtics), Chris Finch (Wolves), Ty Lue (Clippers), Ime Udoka (Rockets)

Executive of the Year

Brad Stevens (Celtics)

Bringing in Porzingis and Jrue Holiday (and giving extensions to both) vaulted the Celtics to one of the most dominating regular season teams we've seen in a while. Letting go of Marcus Smart (remember when he used to play for the Celtics?), Malcolm Brogdon (last year's 6th Man) and Robert Williams (their only real rim-protector) was a gamble. But the moves paid off and the Celtics are the odds-on fave to win it all (indeed, if the Celtics don't win the East it would be a major disappointment).

Runner-ups: Mavs, Knicks, Rockets

1st Team

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder), Jalen Brunson (Knicks), Giannis Antetokounpo (Bucks), Luka Doncic (Mavs), Nikola Jokic (Nuggets)

2nd Team

Anthony Edwards (Wolves), DeMar DeRozan (Bulls), Jaysun Tatum (Celtics), LeBron James (Lakers), Anthony Davis (Lakers)

3rd Team

Devin Booker (Suns), De'Aaron Fox (Kings), Tyrese Maxey (Sixers), Kevin Durant (Suns), Domantas Sabonis (Kings)

2023-24 NBA Bric-a-Brac and Playoff Predictions

(Got bored down the stretch looking at 10-day contracts, I should probably just stop doing that. Here's a few moves that I missed)

Coach

Jamahl Mosley (Magic) signed 4-year extension

The Magic are a young team on the rise, Mosley came in as a promising behind-the-scenes guy and he's grown nicely with this team. Seems like the right move, especially since this roster is pretty well set for the future, I'd guess one big signing this summer, maybe some luck in the draft, but for the most part this squad is ready to grow together, Coach Mosley looks to be the right guy.

Player Contract

Jrue Holiday (Celtics) signs 4yr/$135m extension

Holiday has definitely been a good addition to this Celtics squad and since they've already extended Jaylin Brown and Kristaps Porzingis, seems like this is their roster for the foreseeable future. This is a good team that still has room to get better, this is a good move. 

Retired

Nemanja Bjelica, Rajon Rondo

I always loved Bjelica, too bad the big fella didn't have a coupla more years in him. I remember watching him with the Wolves and he would always have these bruises and cuts on his face--he perpetually looked like he just came from a fist fight in a Wal-Mart parking lot! Loved his game, big guy that shot 3's and took no shit, love that he got a ring with the Warriors. So long, big guy, I was a big fan.

On the other hand, as a lifelong Kentucky Wildcats supporter, I can honestly say Rajon Rondo was my LEAST favorite Wildcat (and he's actually from Kentucky!). I knew he had the skills to be great, I was not surprised by his success, but his taciturn selfishness torpedoed teams as much as he helped them. I still say the trade that sent him to the Mavs was the WORST single trade of the last decade (and one that everyone forgets), considering that the Mavs had the best offense in the league before the trade (didn't need to be done at all). That said, Rondo was a really good player and at his best was a for-real badass (almost as good as his own sense of self). Will he be back as a coach? On the one hand, he was clearly intelligent at basketball; on the other hand, he didn't strike me as the most outgoing, mentor-oriented guy. 

 

Post-Season Predictions

Play-in

(East) I'll take Heat over Sixers, Bulls over Hawks; Sixers over Bulls

(West) I'll take Pelicans over Lakers; Kings over Warriors; Lakers over Kings

1st round

(East) Celtics over Sixers in 5; Heat over Knicks in 7; Bucks over Pacers in 7; Cavs over Magic in 7

(West) Thunder over Lakers in 7; Nuggets over Pelicans in 4; Wolves over Suns in 6; Mavs over Clippers in 6

2nd round

(East) Celtics over Cavs in 5; Bucks over Heat in 7

(West) Thunder over Mavs in 7; Nuggets over Wolves in 7

Conference finals

(East) Celtics over Bucks in 6

(West) Nuggets over Thunder in 6

This was my pre-season Final Four and I'm sticking with it. Yeah, OKC needs to show they can win in the playoffs and I think they will. But the Nuggets are still the team to beat in the West, the one truly ready-to-win team out there. The Celtics have easily been the best in the League this season and while the Bucks have been more shaky than solid this season, I still think they're better than everyone else (except the Celtics).

Finals

Nuggets over Celtics in 6

This was my pre-season pick and my all-star break pick, I don't see any reason to change. I think the Celtics can beat the Nuggets and it'll be a great series, but I'm sticking with the Jokic and co. until the explosion comes to defeat them. 

2024 Champions League (Quarterfinals (1st Leg))

Arsenal 2-2 Bayern Munich

Arsenal opened the scoring on a lovely touch finding a momentary hole in the back line. Bayern's equalizer came from a botched pass out of the Arsenal defense (dude, crappy pass, crappy reception, bad giveaway). Bayern took the lead before halftime on a PK (good call). Arsenal secured the draw with some lovely touches in the box leading to a wide open strike. Bayern put one more off the post but couldn't convert and Arsenal had non-call in the box go against them (uh, looked like a penalty to me). Thought Bayern was the better team, they've been shaky all season long and they did let Arsenal get to goal twice, but if Bayern keeps to this level, they can advance. Even up going back to Munich, I gotta go with Bayern to try and salvage what has been a disappointing season.

Real Madrid 3-3 Manchester City

First: all three of Manchester's goals were awesome! That 2nd minute free kick goal was just not something I saw coming (neither did Real). Real bounced back nicely netting two goals (both deflections, fwiw) within the next ten minutes to hold the halftime lead. Felt like Real was gonna hold up but Man City got two quick goals--both nasty rips from the top of the box--to steal the momentum. But Real was able to secure the draw with a bullet from Valverde. Both teams were active, both teams attacked (and yet both were sturdy in the back), lots of action throughout, I wanna say the winner of this match moves on but everyone scored goals, too, so this might be all offense down the stretch. I like Man City to get the W back at home. 

Atletico Madrid 2-1 Borussia Dortmund

Atletico opened the scoring in the 5th minute off a bad giveaway in the backfield led to the nifty finish (keeper was cooked).  Atletico extended the lead before halftime on another bad giveaway from the Dortmund defense. Felt like this might be a boat race, but I thought Dortmund pretty well dominated the 2nd half--hit the crossbar a million times!--but were only able to get back one goal (only a really nice spinning recovery rip). If Dortmund covers their mistakes, they've still got a shot at moving on, as Atletico is nice but hardly feels dominant. 

Paris SG 2-3 Barcelona

Barca opened the scoring before the half by capitalizing on chaos in front of the goal to stick an empty netter. Dembele got the equalizer right after halftime (with just a postage stamp of space!). PSG came right back and took the lead on a lovely finish as the overlapping run into the box found another postage stamp of space. From that point on, I thought Barca took over and were able to steal back to more goals: Rafinha with a perfect touch on an overhead cross into the box and a corner. Both teams are fairly evenly matched but Barcelona going back home with a lead is gonna be tough to beat. 

2023-24 NBA Bric-a-Brac (Week 18)

Firings

Nets fire Head Coach Jacques Vaughn; Kevin Ollie named interim coach

Well, hard to say that Vaughn was the problem with this team but no one seems to mind that he's gone, so maybe this is a step up. Can Ollie hold the job? I doubt it, but he's got a chance to win over the locker room, if he can get something out of Denis Shroeder then maybe they close strong. 

Contract Extension

Mike Conley (Wolves) signed 2yr/$21m

Conley has been the right guy for this team, this is a great deal. 

Waivings

Lester Quinones (Warriors), Malcolm Cazelon (Pistons), Aleksej Pokusevski (Thunder), Zhaire Smith (Cavs), Stanley Umude (Pistons), Jacob Gilyard (Grizzlies), 

Alas, Poku, we hardly knew ye. Hey, man, I've long thought that if that guy could knock down a 20 footer he could still be a baller. 

10 Day Contracts

Darius Bazley (Sixers), Marques Boldin (Hornets), Jacob Toppin (Knicks), DJ Carton (Raptors), DaQuan Jeffries (Knicks), Jalen Crutcher (Pelicans), Justin Jackson (Wolves), Justin Champagnie (Wizards) 

Did you see Toppin's audition for the dunk contest? Impressive. Then again, I watched him at Kentucky and....well...good athlete, good ball handler, decent rebounder, don't see him being of much use to an NBA roster, though.

Signed for the Rest of the Season

Thadeus Young (Suns), Onuralp Bitim (Bulls)

The Suns need the position that Young plays, not sure he's the one, though.

2-way Contracts

Pete Nance (Cavs), Ryan Rollins (Bucks), Jaylen Martin (Nets), Malcolm Hill (Pelicans), Pat Spencer (Warriors), Ashton Hagans (Blazers), Buddy Boeheim (Pistons), Tosan Evbuomwan (Pistons), Jordan Goodwin (Grizzlies), Andrew Funk (Bulls)

I dunno, we'll see.

2023-24 NBA Bric-a-Brac (League at the All Star Break)

East

Celtics (43w) 

Clear faves, looking good, playing good, they've got their roster in place, just need to avoid injuries. I don't see any MVP or DPOY or 6th Man candidates here, this team is too deep and flexible to really need any kind of stepping up. 

Cavs (36), Bucks (35), Knicks (33)

The Cavs have been on a great run lately and they've really transformed their chemistry lately, but I can't help thinking they're peaking too early. I like them, but I think they finish 4th.

So are the Bucks good in spite of themselves or bad but with bursts of awesome? The Lillard transition has been harder then expected, now the Doc Rivers transition needs to happen, and once Middleton gets healthy, they'll need to work him back into shape. But I still think Giannis is the best player in the East and he alone will drag them into the playoffs. But I think they'll have to expend a great deal of energy to stay in 3rd.

Are you ready for the Knicks to make a run? I like this team to pull together and surge ahead of the Bucks and Cavs and finish 2nd overall. I think they'll keep riding Brunson and fill in the details around him and if they stay healthy, they could be a real handful in the post-season. 

Sixers (32), Pacers (31), Heat (30), Magic (30)

The Sixers without Embiid are gonna struggle to go .500 the rest of the way, which would bring them to 46 wins, which I think is in play-in territory. If Embiid never makes it back, they may well just flail all the way out but they're not bad enough for that. But they'll do well to finish 8th or so, which gives them 2 shots at facing the Celtics in the 1st round---yipes! That said, if they can play strong down the stretch and then add Embiid...you think the Celtics are shaking?

I don't see the Pacers being good enough to sneak into the top 4 and they'll have trouble holding off the Magic for the 5th spot, I think they finish 6th and take the trip to Milwaukee to see if the Bucks are for real.

The Heat often coast through the regular season so maybe I shouldn't be shocked that they look lucky to finish in 6th place, but I think there's something off with this team. Bam is not as dominant as he ought to be, Jimmy Butler doesn't look right and even with the resurrection of Duncan Robinson, the emergence of Jaime Jacquez and the addition of Terry Rozier, I don't see these guys having the fire or the smarts (or the luck) of the last few vintage Heat playoff performers. I think they finish 7th and have to play their way to Madison Square for the 1st round (oooh, I'm talking myself into that one!). 

I like the Magic to let it all hang out and push their way ahead to the 5th seed. Come playoff time they will either be a seasoned squad or they'll be spent. Can they take the Cavs in the 1st round? I dunno, perhaps the widest variance of any possible playoff matchup.

Bulls (26), Hawks (24)

The Bulls are crafty veterans but I don't see how they get better from here. They could be susceptible to a Hawks run, but I can't see them higher than 9 or lower than 10.

The Hawks are gearing up a weird off-season, they got a lot of questions to answer and I suspect the real fireworks don't come for this squad until the season is done. Can they sneak ahead of the Bulls? (I think they will) Can they catch the falling Sixers? (Meh, I doubt it, but perhaps they can best them in the play-in)

Nets (21), Raptors (19), Hornets (13), Wizards (9), Pistons (9)

The Nets could win games if they wanted to--I just don't think they want to. Will Denis Schroder lead this rag tag bunch of wing defenders into the play-in? Possible but I doubt it. 

The Raptors have completely given up on this season, they're not even trying to win. That said, I think they've kinda remade themselves for the future, so they may take this time to develop some chemistry.

The Hornets are not good and they're injured right now and they're an undefined jumble after the trade deadline. I'd be shocked if they finish higher than 13th in the East.

I'm a little surprised the Pistons are worse than the Wizards, who just looked like the worst team in the league last summer to me. I think the Pistons will sneak ahead of the Wizards, as the Wizards have move on from their one reliable down low defender/rebounder (Daniel Gafford), whereas the Pistons got rid of everyone that wasn't immediately in the youth movement, meaning that team is now free to just be themselves and they'll have moments down the stretch.

West

Wolves (39w)

I like the Wolves to finish 1st and extend their lead while doing so. In fact, I think they may face the discomfort of clinching too early and being rusty in the playoffs. They know who they are, they're playing well and they play a lot more games at home from here on out, so I think they cruise into the top spot.

Thunder (37), Clippers (36), Nuggets (36)

I love this OKC squad, yeah, they're young but I think SGA is that good--he's a for real superstar right now and I think OKC already possessed all the firepower they need going forward. That said, I think the Nuggets are due for a run and I think it's the Thunder they bear the brunt of that. So I think they finish 4th i the West.

The Clippers are in a groove. I don't think they rise, I don't think they droop, I think they finish 3rd.

I have the Nuggets leapfrogging the Thunder and Clippers to finish 2nd. This team has been on cruise control all season long and whereas last year, they lollygagged through March and April, this year I think they charge toward the playoffs and sneak up to 2nd (and look damn scary doing it, too!).

Suns (33), Pelicans (33), Mavs (32), Kings (31)

I think the Suns are better positioned that I would've thought heading into the back stretch but I think they take their foot off the gas to avoid injuries and slide back to 6th place. 

The Pelicans are a weird team: their W's and L's have no rhyme or reason to them, I can't tell if they're winning games they don't deserve or if they ought to have a much better record because they lose too much! At any rate, I think they falter down the stretch and get passed by the Mavs and Kings, leading to a play-in game on the road. 

The Mavs upgraded nicely at the trade deadline, just a matter of working in their new rotation and I think they're primed for a late season push. I think they get up to #5.

The Kings started the season so poorly, they feel lucky to be in 8th right now. But I think they're trending in the right direction and I think they outplay the teams behind them and secure 7th place for a home play-in game (light the beam!).

Lakers (30), Warriors (27)

The Lakers are getting good, healthy seasons out of Anthony Davis and Lebron and that's good enough for 9th place in the West. Dang! I like them to stay ahead of the Warriors but not to catch the Kings (or Pelicans).

The Warriors are playing better. Took them a while to get going, but Kuminga has emerged, Draymond seems older and wiser and Klay Thompson understands his new role. This team could be a real snake bite to the squad that isn't ready. 

Jazz (26), Rockets (24)

The Jazz have had some real ups and downs so far, but I think they're kinda done. I don't see them outplaying the West from here, so I can't see them climbing into a play-in spot. I see them as #12.

I thought the Rockets would struggle with their new vets and their promising youth but then find their stride after the all-star break and finish strong. Well, I was almost kinda right: this team is actually pretty good at home and pretty terrible on the road. I thought it would be a developmental process throughout the season, but instead it is an indelible home/road split that has persisted all season. Okay, well, I think they finish strong, wouldn't be shocked to see them make the play-in tourney, but I doubt it. I think they finish 11th--and go free agent hunting in the summer!

Grizzlies (20), Blazers (15), Spurs (11)

Yeah, these three are long done. The Grizz were done in by Ja Morant's early season suspension followed quickly by his season-ending injury. In the last few years, they've actually played well without Ja but they never got going this season, wasted from day one.

The Blazers not trading Malcolm Brogdon was the low key underreported bombshell of the trade deadline, that guy was built to complement a playoff roster--not a rebuild. The good news for the Blazers is they have a bevy of good-looking youngsters and I expect the veterans to be stripped (and replaced) in the off-season.

The Spurs made no effort to be good this year. And they're not. Another top 5 pick is probably just what they need.

East Playoffs Prediction

Heat over Sixers, Hawks over Bulls; Hawks over Sixers

Celtics over Hawks in 5; Knicks over Heat in 7; Bucks over Pacers in 7; Magic over Cavs in 6

Celtics over Magic in 5; Bucks over Knicks in 6

Celtics over Bucks in 7

West Playoffs Prediction

Kings over Pelicans; Warriors over Lakers; Warriors over Pelicans

Wolves over Warriors in 7; Nuggets over Kings in 7; Clippers over Suns in 7; Thunder over Mavs in 7

Thunder over Wolves in 6; Nuggets over Clippers in 6

Nuggets over Thunder in 7

Championship

Nuggets over Celtics in 7

There it is....future all laid out for ya.

2023-24 NBA Bric-a-Brac (Week 16) (Trade Deadline)

Trades

Celtics get Xavier Tillman; Pelicans get Lamar Stevens; Grizzlies get 2027 2nd rd pick, 2030 2nd rd pick

Celtics finally get the rim protection they've needed for years (Robert Williams was pretty good in his time but seemingly always injured). Grizzlies get a couple more 2nd rd picks to throw on the pile and, since Stevens hasn't been waived, I guess they plan on adding Stevens to the rotation. 

Pistons get Troy Brown Jr, Shake Milton, 2030 2nd rd pick; Wolves get Monte Morris

Pistons didn't really need Morris, a vet hungry for some playoff run, but I'm not sure they needed Brown or Milton, either--well, until they waived most of their roster, stripping it back down to pure youth movement--as they are already Cunningham and Ivey as ball dominant attackers. As for the Wolves, well, Morris is fine, gives them a little more toughness on D, little more irrational confidence on offense, and since Milton had fallen pretty far out of the rotation, this was an easy move for them.

Pacers get Cory Joseph, 2025 2n rd pick, cash; Warriors get 2024 2nd rd pick

Since Joseph has already been cut, this looks to be a paper-shuffling move for the Warriors, opening the spot for a buy out (big man?), I presume. Presumably the Pacers get the better 2nd rd pick and for a team that values the draft, that might become something useful.  

Pistons get Danuel House Jr, 2024 2n rd pick; Sixers get 2028 2nd rd pick

Another roster-shuffling move, as House has already been waived by the Pistons. Not sure why the Sixers are moving on from House, he's a nice contributor and I'm not sure I see someone more fitting for them out their in the buy-out market, but I guess they have moves in mind, already. As for the Pistons, it's just another 2nd rd pick for the upcoming draft. 

Jazz get Otto Porter Jr, Kira Lewis Jr, 2024 1st rd pick; Raptors get Kelly Olynyk, Ochai Agbaji

I don't really get this trade. The Jazz love their 1st rd picks and that's probably the right price for Olynyk, but Agbaji is still a nice young prospect and I don't see Kira Lewis as an upgrade. And what do they intend to do with Porter? As for the Raptors, what do they need Olynyk for? I like Olynyk but he's the kind of guy that can make a worthwhile contribution to a good team but isn't gonna do much to raise the level of a bad team, so are the Raptors just looking to tank the rest of the season, then flip Olynyk in the summer? Is that really worth a 1st rd pick? Agbaji should fit the new-look Raptor rotation but, again, not sure he's worth a 1st rounder, either (unless the Raptors presume this draft will suck). Can't help thinking that Porter and Olynyk are still on the move--and since the draft probably will suck, wouldn't the Jazz rather have Agbaji rather than Lewis and an anonymous draft pick? 

Kings get Robin Lopez, cash; Bucks get the rights to Dimitrios Agravanis

Another roster shuffle, as the Kings have already waived Lopez (hmmm, kinda thought the Kings could use Lopez). Don't know Agravanis....sounds Greek...pal of Giannis, I presume. Seems like this about the Bucks freeing up a roster spot for a buy out guy (hmmmm, kinda thought the Bucks could use Lopez). 

Mavs get Daniel Gafford; Wizards get Richaun Holmes

All the Wizards got was Richaun Holmes? Why didn't OKC offer slightly more and steal him away? I like Gafford, good rebounder, hard worker, a guy that busts his ass night in, night out. Not a star but the kind of role player pretty much every team could use (especially, say, the Thunder). Holmes is a nice veteran but he's hardly a long term addition for the Wizards, so they just wanted the fungible contract rather than a highly prized role player? Great trade for the Mavs, kinda shocked the Wizards couldn't do better than this for Gafford--not even a throw-in 2nd rounder? Jeez. 

Blazers get Dalano Banton; Celtics get 2nd rd pick

Banton had a moment last year with the Raptors where he kinda seemed like a guy, but I guess it was just an unexpected hot streak because nothing much ever happened with him again. The Celtics needed a roster spot but since the Blazers haven't waived him, perhaps they've got plans for Banton. 

Celtics get Jaden Springer; Sixers get 2024 2nd rd pick

Jaden Springer is why the Celtic moved on from Banton--and why they could afford to give away a 2nd rd pick. So basically this is a 3-way trade where the Sixers and the Blazers get nothing and the Celtics get the prospect they wanted all along. We'll see if Springer becomes something, if he can handle the ball then he'll get more of a chance with the Celtics than the Sixers, I suppose. But on the surface this just looks like the Celtics get the Blazers and Sixers to pay each other for the guy the Celtics wanted. 

Bucks get Patrick Beverley; Sixers get Cameron Payne

PatBev is one of those guys that people are irrational about. The idea that he makes the difference for the Bucks or the Sixers is laughable....that said....every time I've watched the Sixers this year, he's the one that stands out. So I can't imagine why the Sixers gave him away to a conference rival. Payne brings back a ball handler instead of a defensive presence but do the Sixers need that? I can't believe there wasn't more to this deal--why would the Sixers just give away a player to the team ahead of them in the standings? I guarantee Beverley was giving them more than Payne will, so what is up with this move? 

Nets get Dennis Schroder, Thaddeus Young; Raptors get Spencer Dinwiddie

Schroder is the kinda guy that can bring it when he's motivated but mails it in when he's not feeling it. In 2023's Euro championship, I thought Schroder was the MVP of the tourney--not Luka, not Jokic, not Markennen. And with the Lakers in the playoffs last year, I thought Schroder's defense was extremely underappreciated. But when he was with the Celtics a few years back--a team desperate for a PG--he barely paid attention and was clearly eager to get run out of town. Why? Likewise, the Raptors are a team desperate for a PG and yet night after night he brought not much to that team. Well, now he's going to another squad desperate for a PG and I can't help feeling that this is the best/last chance for Schroder to actually be a star--which I am convinced he can be if he really wants to. Will he ball out in Brooklyn? I doubt it, but we'll see. As for Young (already moved on to the Suns) and Dinwiddie (already moved on to the Lakers), I think they can be kinda useful in limited roles on playoff teams, we'll see if they get anything done in their new homes. 

Knicks get Bojan Bogdanovic, Alec Burks; Pistons get Evan Fournier, Malachi Flynn, Quentin Grimes, Ryan Arcidiacano, 2028 2nd rd pick, 2029 2nd rd pick

Knicks bolster their bench with two reliable veteran shooters, both of whom are wildly underrated. The fact that the Knicks got both of these guys without giving up a 1st rd pick is remarkable. What happened to the Knicks? They look like a real organization for the first time since the Patrick Ewing days. As for the Pistons, well, I guess Grimes has a shot at becoming a rotation guy, but Arcidiacano is already gone, I assume Flynn will be waived at the first chance and Fournier is clearly not someone to build around. So Grimes and a coupla 2nd rd picks feels like not much for two vets all playoff teams could use. 

Mavs get PJ Washington, 2024 2nd rd pick, 2028 2nd rd pick; Hornets get Grant Williams, Seth Curry, 2027 1st rd pick

I love PJ Washington, he's on a great contract and he's a hungry that's never been on a good team--exactly the guy I'd love to add to a playoff roster. (So why didn't OKC go get this guy? And they facilitated the trade by offering a 1st rounder in a pick swap deal with the Mavs--why not just use that pick to go get Washington for the Thunder roster?) Clearly Grant Williams was not a successful signing, but still a reasonable enough addition for the Hornets, and Seth Curry was not really needed on a team with so much firepower (and now the Hornets can play the "we got a Curry!" game, worse ways to go). Weird trade but the Mavs end up with the guy they want (instead of the guy they don't want) and the Hornets shuffle the deck chairs and have an extra 1st round pick.

Thunder get Gordon Hayward; Hornets get Vasilijie Micic, Tre Mann, Davis Bertans, 2024 2nd rd pick, 2025 2nd rd pick

Why did the Thunder do this? So instead of going to Charlotte and putting your assets out for Washington (and Nick Richards), they help Washington go to a conference opponent and get Hayward instead? Why....why....I don't get this at all. I like Micic and Mann, they'll both get run in the Hornets rotation, and even Bertans might get some time, too, since the Hornets have no need to win anything. I like OKC, they have drafted so well over the years that they can afford to give up on Micic and Mann, but to do that for Hayward makes no sense to me. 

Grizzlies get Chimezie Metu, Yuta Watanabe; Suns get Royce O'Neale, David Roddy; Nets get Keita Bates-Diop, Jordan Goodwin, 2026 2nd rd pick, 2028 2nd picks, 2029 2nd rd picks, the rights to Vanja Marinkovic

The Suns wanted a solid veteran perimeter defender and, in O'Neale, they got that. The rest is just a shuffling of little used players to similarly dusaty benches. I like Watanabe but hard to imagine he makes a difference in Memphis. Roddy was my favoire player in the NCAA tourney a coupla years back, but I think we can say he doesn't look to be a major star in the NBA. Bates-Diop is a servicable forward but the Nets already have a whole roster full of those. Metu and Goodwin have already waived. No idea who Marinkovic is, I suppose it is possible that he is the real jewel in this transaction. Well, the Nets got a fist full of 2nd round picks, that's something, I guess.

Sixers get Buddy Hield; Pacers get Furkan Korkmaz, Doug McDermott, 2024 2nd rd pick, 2029 2nd rd pick, cash; Spurs get Marcus Morris, 2029 2nd rd pick

Sixers get the shooter they needed in Hield, but unless Embiid returns, not sure it matters. Pacers get two guys they don't need or want and some 2nd rounders. Spurs get a Morris twin for no reason and a far off 2nd rounder. Feels like the Pacers should've done better for Hield--and why were they so desperate to trade him anyway? He has better value than what they got back. The Spurs get to move on from McDermott but what do they need Morris for? I dunno, this just looks like a big ol' waste of time. 

Nuggets get rights to Ishmael Kamagate; Clippers get cash

Okay. Do the Nuggets really like this guy or were the Clippers just extra desperate to get rid of him?

Pistons get Simons Fontecchio; Jazz get Kevin Knox, rights to Gabriele Procida, 2024 2nd rd pick

Fontecchio is a reasonable perimeter shooter, kinda had moments with the Jazz, not sure what kind of time he'll get with the Pistons. Jazz have already released Knox. I remember some hopeful talk of Procida in that draft. Interesting to see if the Jazz can bring Procida over next year. 

Waivings

Victor Oladipo (Grizzlies), Frank Ntilikina (Hornets), Ish Smith (Hornets), James Bouknight (Hornets), Robin Lopez (Kings), Harry Giles (Nets), Thaddeus Young (Nets), Cory Joseph (Pacers), Danilo Gallinari (Pistons), Danuel House Jr (Pistons), Joe Harris (Pistons), Killian Hayes (Pistons), Spencer Dinwiddie (Raptors), Chimezie Metu (Grizzlies), RJ Hampton (Heat), Kevin Knox (Jazz), Jordan Goodwin (Nets), Furkan Korkmaz (Pacers), Kyle Lowry (Hornets), Ryan Arcidiacano (Pistons), Delon Wright (Wizards)

Hornets and Pistons clean house.

Signings (for the rest of the season)

James Johnson (Pacers), GG Jackson (Gizzlies), Keon Ellis (Kings), Lindy Waters III (Thunder), Spencer Dinwiddie (Lakers), Bismack Biyombo (Thunder), Kyle Lowry (Sixers), Thaddeus Young (Suns), Danilo Gallinari (Bucks), Delon Wright (Heat), Criag Porter Jr (Cavs), Duop Reath (Blazers), Jeremish Robinson-Earl (Pelicans)

Jackson has been balling out, looks like a great signing for the Grizzlies.

I think Dinwiddie can be really good off the Lakers bench. He can be the pretty good 2nd string playmaker (as long as he stays engaged) that the Lakers will need if they plan on making a run. 

Thunder needed rebounding and rim-protecting and that's pretty much all Biyombo can do, so he can be pretty good for them. (They could've traded for PJ Washington and Nick Richards and still signing Birombo....just sayin'....)

So the Sixers will use Lowry and Buddy Hield to stay afloat til Emibiid comes back? Meh, I guess it might work.

The Suns weren't old enough, they're gonna need Young's veteran presence. 

I don't see what Galinari gives the Bucks. He can shoot 3's but he's too slow to be effective on defense, hard to imagine he's a net benefit for this team. Well, the Bucks this year are built to outscore teams so I guess his lack of defense doesn't really matter (as long as he scores). 

Wright is a nice backup PG, the Heat always need depth. 

10 Day Contracts

Ashton Hagans (Blazers), Trey Jamison (Grizzlies), Taj Gibson (Knicks), Justise Winslow (Raptors), Mouhamadou Gueye (Raptors), Zhaire Smith (Cavs), Tosan Evbuomwan (Pistons), Jordan Goodwin (Grizzlies) 

Winslow is back! Man, when he fell to $#10 in the draft, I thought that would be a talking point for years to come. Not so much. 

2-Way Contracts

Alondes Williams (Heat), Mason James (Kings), Adam Flagler (Thunder)

Don't know. 

2023-24 NFL Super Bowl (Predictions)

Conference Finals

Chiefs 17-10 Ravens

Well, the Ravens picked a bad time to play their worst game of the year, but I kinda saw it coming (but tried to ignore it), because the Ravens have benefitted immensely throughout the season from other people's mistakes instead of their own brilliance. I like Lamar Jackson, I'd say he is the deserving MVP, he had a hell of a season and that Ravens defense is really good--one of the greatest of all time? Well, no, but one of the better defenses of this season, absolutely. But still the Ravens have accrued most of their W's from other teams self-destructing as much as the Ravens getting it done. 

Meanwhile, the Chiefs also have a great QB and one of the league's better defenses, so was this a match of evenly matched teams? Well, no. I'd still say the Ravens were a more complete team with a more reliable offense and more reliable defense. All they had to do was avoid the dumb mistakes and wait for the other team to falter--and as great as Mahomes is, he doesn't have that much to work with these days--so expecting the Ravens to win even while thinking they are a bit overrated does not seem like a crazy concept to me (indeed, I still had the Ravens winning and covering even though I've been skeptical of them all season). 

But, all that said, the Ravens sucked so bad in the 2nd half--and the Chiefs didn't hardly do anything--that it is kinda shocking that the Ravens made it this far. The Ravens couldn't sustain drives in the 1st half and found unique and interesting ways to sabotage their good drives in the 2nd half. But even with all that, the Ravens were still the better team and should've won--and probably even covered! 

The Chiefs started with 3 good drives that netted them 17 points and then....survived. Are the Chiefs good? The Dolphins were completely falling apart by the time the post-season arrived, the Bills defense was decimated and the Ravens kept shooting themselves in the foot over and over. My take that this team is just Mahomes, a so-so running game and a pretty good defense and nothing else is still intact.  

Lions 31-34 Niners

The Lions built up an impressive 24-7 lead at halftime, but then completely foundered in the 2nd half and outside of a garbage time TD, basically couldn't do anything right. Too bad because the 1st half Lions were easily the best of the 4 teams that played today. But they couldn't convert on 4th down (Reynolds!), gave up a miracle reception, gave away a particularly egregious fumble, couldn't convert on 3rd down (Reynolds!) and then chose to go for it on 4th down when tying the game with FG was clearly the better move. Look, coach, I love that you "believe" in your guys and you like to gamble--that's great! But is okay to "believe" in your kicker, too, and to gamble on a game-tying FG, too. 

As for the Niners, they started the game trying to ride McCaffrey and that kinda went nowhere. But in the 2nd half they rode Deebo Samuel and that was much more effective. Then they rode the momentum that the Lions just couldn't regain and, well, that was enough to move on from the NFC. The Niners all season long were pretty clearly the best team in football on both sides of the ball. But the Packers and Lions both stifled the mighty Niner defense and the offense came alive when needed but could've asserted more control (if you really think they're that good).  

Super Bowl

Niners (-1.5) @ Chiefs (o/u (47.5)

Okay, well, right off: after the Conference Finals I can't help thinking that a Ravens-Lions SB would've been a much invigorating game, but this is what we have. 

The Niners defense has looked pretty bad for a while now, can they stop Mahomes? The Chiefs made good use of TE Kelce before halftime against the Ravens, but I don't think the Niners will let that happen. I kinda think Kelce (aka "Mr. Swift") will be strangely non-existent in this match since the Niners clearly have the LB strength to take him out. But that should offer chances for the Chiefs WRs at the second level. If the Niner pass rush can re-emerge, then Mahomes will be hard-pressed to take advantage of this. But if he has time, I expect the WRs to get 1st downs. Mahomes is a genius, entirely up to the Niner pass rush to get going, but so far it seems like Mahomes is brilliant early but wears down as the game goes on. 

On the other side, QB Brock Purdy has a habit of starting slow, then making the right plays down the stretch. That might work against the Chiefs, if their offense diminishes after halftime, but I think it'd be much better if Purdy got going early. Last time, they leaned on McCaffrey early but had success going to Samuel, let's see if they feature Samuel out of the gate. The Chiefs D is good but the Niner offense should be dynamic enough to move the ball. If Purdy plays mistake-free, they should be much better than the Chiefs. But the Niners have played their worst football of the season in the last few weeks, are they gonna turn it around in time?

Okay, I've picked against Mahomes three straught weeks, am I dumb enough to do it again? Yes, I am. Because I think the Chiefs opponents have mostly self-destructed lately and I'm going to put my faith in the sheer depth of Niner talent to get the stops needed and to pressure Mahomes throughout. If so, the Niners could win easily. And, frankly, they better because if they let the Chiefs hang around, Mahomes has the magic to steal away the big game.

I agonized over this match for two weeks now, but suddenly it seems to me that this has the chance to be a Niner boat race. If they play their best game on both sides, they should be far superior to the Chiefs. I'm betting they put together the right plan and get the luck they need because the Chiefs offense just isn't the dynamic force it has been in recent years and as good as the Chiefs D is, the Niners have plenty of firepower on their offense. If Purdy plays mistake-free and either Samuel or McCaffrey bust loose, then the Niners should dominate this game. They haven't shown it lately, but I'm betting the Niners shine out here and control this game from start to finish (yeah, I know....Mahomes....). I see the Chiefs winning a close game but the Niners winning a blowout. 

I'll say Niners 34-17 (Niners and over). 

2023-24 NBA Bric-a-Brac (Week 15)

Trade

Rockets get Steven Adams; Grizzlies get Victor Oladipo, two 2024 2nd rd picks, one 2025 2nd rd pick

In case you wondering if injured players could get traded in the NBA, the answer is obviously "YES", considering that neither Adams not Oladipo has played a game yet this year. I have a theory about Adams: I bet in real life he's a really cool guy and probably a great locker room presence. In his prime he was a hell of a rebounder, defender and all-around lane filler but the prime years are long past for Adams. So what purpose does he serve the Rockets? Well, they're a young team and he's a reliable (likable?) veteran in the locker room and when he does come back next year, he'll be a nice 2nd string big man for them. 

As for Oladipo, well, if he comes back from injury, he could possibly get some for-real minutes on this Grizzlies team that is already decimated by injuries and not looking to win games anyway. If he could be something like the ball handling scorer he was at his peak, then there's definitely room in Memphis for him right now. Honestly three 2nd rd picks is the real prize in this deal as the Grizzlies need bodies and will likely be able to make better use of them that the Rockets (who have already moved on from their youth movement into a maturing roster). 

Is this move a big deal? Well, its deck chair shuffling for both teams and that might make each of them a little more nimble this off-season but isn't gonna make much different on the court. 

Injury

Zach LaVine opted for season-ending foot surgery

LaVine had been prominent in trade rumors for the last month or so, does this mean he's off the market? Most likely, since anyone trading for LaVine would want him to play now rather than later. But, as we've seen with Adams and Oladipo, resetting for this summer and/or next season is not out of the question, so is there anyone out there willing to pick up a convalescing LaVine? The Pistons are still a possibility and why not the Raptors, since it seems like they're not interesting in winning any more this season. Could the Blazers pony up Jerami Grant for 2025 LaVine?

10-day Contracts

Tosan Evbuomwan (Grizzlies), Taj Gibson (Knicks), Trey Jemison (Grizzlies)

The Grizzlies are crippled by injuries at the moment, I'm a little surprised there are only two 10-day-ers in the rotation at the moment. 

Taj! Hey, man, when Coach Thibs says, "I need ya, Taj", Taj snaps into action, pulls the old Knick jersey out of the back of the closet and collects a few extra paychecks. Always liked Taj, glad he's still around (though clearly Thibs is the only one that truly appreciates his genius). 

Retiring

Marc Gasol

Helluva player in his day, he was the epitome of the ol' grit-and-grind Grizzlies, went to Toronto for a playoff run, bounced around a little. Always had a weird game, weird body, but in his prime he was a reliable scorer, subtle tough guy and a great all-round contributor. Good int'l career, too, and I presume that this announcement is truly about no longer playing for Spain or in Europe in general. Hall of famer? I'd say yes (but then again, everybody makes the basketball hall of fame). 

2023-24 NBA Bric-a-Brac (Week 13-14)

Trade

Pacers get Pascal Siakim, 2024 Pelicans 2nd rd pick; Raptors get Bruce Brown, Jordan Nwora, Kira Lewis Jr, two 2024 1st rd picks, one 2026 1st rd pick, one 2024 2nd rd pick; (Pelicans get....nothing?)

I was actually a little skeptical of Siakim's fit in Indy, but supposedly Siakim has long been an admirer of Myles Turner and really looked forward to playing with him.  Okay, that doesn't look like it'll work to me but if they're into it, then let's see it in action. On paper this deal is a win for the Pacers, a team that either has to draft well or make shrewd trades and this looks like a good one (assuming they can re-sign Siakim long term this summer). Losing Bruce Brown is tough but Siakim's offense and defense should make up for that loss.  

Personally I thought the Raptors were going to re-sign Siakim this summer and that that was the plan all along...but, apparently not. I guess they thought they either had to trade him or else just loved this deal so much they couldn't pass it up. Either way, they add Bruce Brown to the rotation, where I think he'll fit in right away (or Brown can still be flipped to another team and while I assume there would be many suitors, that doesn't necessarily mean the right deal will come together). And they get three 1st rd picks and the Raptors are a pretty good draft team, so more fuel for their fire. Nwora and Lewis are not high on anyone's lists of must-have players, but they give enough depth for other players on the Raptors (*ahem* Denis Schroder and, well, Bruce Brown) to be moved by the deadline, too. And since the Raptors are clearly punting on this season, there's no need to bring back quality unless the contract matches future desires. I thought the Raptors had their Siakim problem fixed all long (re: I thought they loved each other and it was a mega-re-signing just waiting to happen), but I guess they chose to pull the rip chord instead. Okay, not a bad idea and a pretty good haul.

The Pelicans pitched in a 2nd rd pick and Kira Lewis Jr. and received....nothing at all....?  Uh....isn't there some provision that requires this trade to look somewhat balanced? Pelicans didn't even get a future 2nd rd pick or anything? Do they get a trade exception? Anything? (How is this still possible?)

Heat get Terry Rozier; Hornets get Kyle Lowry, 2027 1st rd pick

Great deal for the Heat. Rozier is a playmaker or a scorer, he wants to win, has a range of additive skills and has been playing for a losing team for so long that he's probably dying to play meaningful games again. 

The Hornets don't really need Rozier any more since they're not trying to win. Lowry will be waived, I presume, or if not, he won't help the Hornets win games. And an unprotected 1st rd pick is always good (on paper). The Hornets don't really add much but they've got nothing to lose anyway.  

Firings

Bucks fire coach Adrian Griffin; hire Doc Rivers ($40m/3.5yr)

Wow, 40 games into his coaching career and now he's out? Well, it started shaky enough. First off, I thought they were foolish for firing Coach Budenholzer. Secondly, Nick Nurse was the obvious replacement (but apparently he and Giannis did not hit it off). And then this team with championship aspirations hires a 1st time head coach? From outside the organization? Then right before the season starts, new guy fires off Terry Stotts, the one veteran coach on the staff (and presumed Dame-whsiperer). Yeah....none of that is good. The Bucks overreacted to getting bounced in the playoffs (uh, Giannis was hurt, you'll recall), fired a good coach, panic-traded for Dame (don't hate the trade but I'm not convinced it needed to be done), then went pennywise-pound-foolish on the new head coach. Now their defense is a disaster and they had to overpay Doc Rivers (while still overpaying the last two coaches). All right, the good news is: Dame and Giannis together are quite the offensive juggernaut, they're still 2nd in the East and if they could get any kind of defensive identity going, then they could still win it all. Doc is fine for this team (though that price tag--whooch!) but it all just reminds us that Coach Bud should be coaching this team still. 

Wizards fire (and re-assign) coach Wes Unseld Jr; Brian Keefe named interim head coach

Yup, it was all the coach's fault. Whew! Thank god the Wizards have finally put that problem to bed! Uh....just kidding. This organization is a mess and Unseld is probably better off collecting his severance and trying to get a job on Doc Rivers' staff in Milwaukee. Where do the Wizards go from here? Well, I mean "up" is the only direction available, right?

Waivings

Christian Koloko (Raptors)

The fallout of the Siakim trade. Koloko played 58 games for the Raptors last year but has played 0 this year. Turns out he has a seemingly major blood clot issue that could be life-threatening much less career-threatening. I hope the NBA insurance policy is a good one (I would assume it is as good as any on planet Earth). Hopefully we'll see him in Summer League.  

2-way Contracts

Scottie Pippen Jr (Grizzlies)

A hot prospect at Vanderbilt, Pippen hasn't really done much as a pro. Seems like he's more of a playmaking PG than a scorer, seems like the Grizzlies could use that. We'll see if he gets minutes this year. 

10-day Contacts

Pete Nance (Cavs), (2x) James Johnson (Pacers), Taze Moore (Blazers), Trey Jemison (Wizards), Malcolm Hill (Pelicans), Matthew Hurt (Grizzlies)

Will any of these guys really make a difference for their squads? I dunno. The 10-day contract thing is more about roster paperwork shuffling than on the court activity, so probably not. But, these guys are all NBA players and I'm not.