Showing posts with label atlantic. Show all posts
Showing posts with label atlantic. Show all posts

Monday, October 15, 2018

2018-19 NBA Pre-season (Atlantic)

Celtics
Out: Greg Monroe, Shane Larkin, Jonathon Gibson, Kadeem Allen, Abdel Nader
Larkin played a lot of worthwhile minutes off the bench for the Celtics in the last coupla years, I suppose the emergence of Terry Rozier makes Larkin fungible, but Monroe didn't do much in his short stay in Boston and I don't know Gibson or Allen. I like Nader but there isn't enough room in that rotation for him.

In: Brad Wanamaker, Robert Williams III, Walter Lemon, Rodney Purvis. PJ Dozier, Marcus Georges-Hunt
I dunno about Wanamaker, he's been kind of a work horse in the Turkish League, signed a very affordable 1yr deal, I assume he's up against Lemon for the 3rd string PG. Williams (Celtics' 1st rd pick) is already hilarious and with the Baynes re-signing, Williams is a luxury, clearly a project over the next coupla years.

Re-signed: Aron Baynes, Marcus Smart, Jabari Bird
I dig it. I liked Baynes in the playoffs last year, showed real smarts, the kinda guy you want off the bench. Re-upping Smart is a good move for the Celtics: he hustles, the fans love him, he makes mistakes but he makes plays, he's perfect for Coach Stevens, I know he's not perfect but that dude is worth it.

All in all: There's nothing here that makes them wildly better but nothing that makes them worse. They brought back Baynes and Smart, brought in Williams to replace Monroe and Wanamaker/Lemon to replace Larkin. These are end of the roster moves and they seem like good ones. If they stay healthy they have enough depth and variability and the coaching to easily lead the East.


Knicks
Out: Jarret Jack, Michael Beasley, Kyle O'Quinn, Troy Williams.
Oh man, I forgot about Jarret Jack, he does seem pretty Knicks-y, doesn't he? I still think Jack can be a good 2nd/3rd string PG especially for a frisky wannabe playoff squad (hello, Grizzlies!). I like Beasley, never as good as he should've been but he seems to have matured enough to at least be a decent player, (I liked the idea of him in the Raptor bench crew but I kinda like him with the Lakers). I always liked O'Quinn, one of those dudes that always looks reliable out there, but Knicks are going youth-y, so I don't think he's too much of a loss. Williams....seems like a nice guy.

In: Alonzo Trier, Kevin Knox, Mitchell Robinson, Noah Vonleh, Mario Hezonja, Jeff Coby
Keep an eye on Knox: at Kentucky his only drawback was not being more demanding, with NYK he'll have as much ball as he wants and when he goes off he'll be a national hero. Good for him! He's gonna be good and I think a legit pick for ROY. I kinda like Hezonja's chances of having a turnaround with the Knicks, he'll get minutes and chances, if he can score, he'll be just fine. Vonleh is worth another look (though I'd be surprised if he makes much difference to the roster). I liked Trier in the NCAA and I'm intrigued by Robinson, not ready to say they'll be good but not bad flyers for NYK.

Re-signed: Enes Kanter (picked up player option), Isiah Hicks (2 way contract), Luke Kornet (1yr/$1.6m)
I like Kanter, he's a rebound machine, probably exactly what Knox and Porzingis need, not a bad deal, 1 more year (then he heads to Dallas or San Antonio). I don't know Hicks or Kornet.

All in all
Ehhh, they're still a mixed bag. I like Coach Fizdale (thought he probably got a raw deal in Memphis) to add some excitement. But unless Knox wins ROY and Porzingas wins Most Improved, I don't like this team to win too many games. No focus to this team.


Nets
Out: Nik Stauskus, James Webb, Dante Cunningham, Jahlil Okafor, Quincy Acy, Timofey Mozgov, Jeremy Lin, Isiah Whitehead, Milton Doyle, Randy Foye, (2025 2nd rd pick), (2023 2nd rd pick swap w/ Hawks), (2021 2nd rd pick),
They made no effort to keep any of these guys, for better or worse. That alone indicates none of these assets were part of the future.

In: Ed Davis (1yr/$4.5m), Jared Dudley, Kenneth Faried, Shabazz Napier, Dzanan Musa, Rodions Kurucs, Traveon Graham, Theo Pinson, Jordan McLaughlin, Mitchell Creek, Alan Williams, (the rights to Isaia Cordiner), (Hawks 2020 2nd rd pick),
I like Davis and I'm curious to see Musa and Kurucs. But the trio of vets (Dudley, Faried, Napier) strike me as guys that will get minutes but won't bring in W's. The rest of roster fillers with a chance to get minutes.

Re-signed: Joe Harris (2yrs/$16m)
Good player, good signing, very reasonable contract.

All in all
This is a transition year for the Nets. Next summer, they'll be rolling a ton of money off this roster, so next summer is when they begin to get back in the business of being the Nets. I'd say this season is all about deciding whether to keep Russell, Dinwiddie and Hollis-Jefferson (I'd say no matter how good the vets are, they're all gone). So will the Nets be good? No. But they won't be as awful as the last few years. They'll be working on making the most of their two 1st and two 2nd rd picks next summer and auditioning the rest of their roster for a re-up.


Raptors
Out: DeMar DeRozan, Jakob Poetl, Lucas Noguiera, Malcolm Miller, Alfonzo McKinnie, Nando deColo
This team has been dying for a shakeup--any kind of shakeup!--for the last two summers and this year it finally happened. Yes, it's only one year of Kawhi but they had to bust up the Lowry-DeRozan-Ibaka trio: too much money, not enough youth. Perhaps when Kawhi skips after a single season they'll be kicking themselves, but at least they'll have money to spend. I like DeRozan but Kawhi is a much more dynamic player on both ends of the court, this was a swing for the fences that had to be taken. I like Poetl, he's not just a throw-in, he's a smart player, passes well, rebounds well, the kind of all-round player every team could use. I watched Noquiera in int'l play and he looks fine out there, not sure why he never adapted to the NBA game, maybe he just needed a change of scenery. Kinda surprised deColo wasn't in the DeRozan-Kawhi deal, it was the Spurs who brought deColo to light, I think he can be a useful PG off the bench for the Raptors. McKinnie played limited time for the Raptors, though as a well-regarded prospect, perhaps he'll get minutes somewhere else.

In: Kawhi Leonard, Danny Green, (2019 1st rd pick), Chris Boucher, Jordan Lloyd, Greg Monroe, Kay Felder, Deng Adel, Kyle Collinsworth, Eric Moreland
Okay, this was the blockbuster trade of the summer (Lebron was a free agent), will it work out? The Raptors needed to make moves and if making those moves gives you a shot at one of the great players of the game, even for just one year, you've gotta do it. If Kawhi is old school Kawhi, he could be in the MVP discussion and I like the Raptors to finish 1st in the East. Green will give them reliable wing scoring, Monroe gives them more size off the bench and Felder, Adel, Boucher could add to that mighty bench the Raptors sported last year. 

Re-signed: Fred Van Vleet (2yr/$18.1m), Lorenzo Brown (1yr/$1.6m)
Good move to bring back Van Vleet, one of those guys that keeps working and making plays and keeps everyone around into the game. Not a bad price tag on that deal, too. Not sure what Brown has to offer but he had a pretty good rookie year with the Lakers a while back, maybe he's still got something to offer.

All in all
The Raptors in the Lowry-DeRozan era have been a top notch regular season, gliding into the top spot of the East for the last coupla years. That said, they haven't inspired much fear in the post-season but now that Lebron is gone, their chance has arrived. Bringing in Kawhi was a bold move but one that could propel them into their first Finals.

PG Lowry, SG Anunoby, SF Kawhi, PF Ibaka, C Valenciunas with Van Vleet, Miles, Wright, Green, Siakam, Monroe off the bench. Wow, I don't see how Felder, Richardson, Adel, Powell or Moreland got any playing time at all. That's either a lot of trade filler or more depth than is actually needed. Yes, they've got a new coach and their fan favorite cornerstone is gone, but the vibe is still there, the stars are still there and the depth is still there. The Celtics are stacked but I wouldn't be surprised if the Raptors finish 1st in the East by sheer inertia.


Sixers
Out: Ersan Ilyasova, Marco Belinelli, Justin Anderson, Timothy Luwawu, Richaun Holmes
They let go of 2 vets and 3 young projects. Ilyasova and Belinelli gave the Sixers some spunk down the stretch last year but I don't think either were major pieces that needed to be retained. Luwawu spent most of his time in Philly on injured reserve (as is the norm for Sixer draft picks) and Anderson never really fit into the rotation, though I thought he could be. Holmes was a nice big man off the bench but hardly an irreparable loss.

In: Wilson Chandler, Mike Muscala, Zhaire Smith, Landry Shamet, Norvel Pelle, (Lakers 2019 2nd rd pick), (GM Elton Brand), (Pistons 2021 & 2023 2nd rd picks), Shake Milton, (Heat 2021 1st rd pick), (2022 2nd rd pick swap w/ Nuggets), Anthony Brown, Emeka Okafor
Okay, out with some vets and youngsters, in with a new batch of vets and youngsters. Chandler, Okafor and Muscala are professional basketballers, though none come in expecting to have starring roles. Their jobs are to be reliable professionals off the court and occasionally give important minutes off the bench. I reckon they'll all be just fine. Smith and Shamet are promising youngsters--which in Philadelphia means they'll probably be injured by the end of this sentence. Brown had some fun moments with the Lakers a while back and has bounced around a bit, Philly should offer him a few minutes here or there to show himself. I kinda liked what I saw of Milton at SMU, kind of a steal for the Sixers to get him (effectively) so late in the draft; I suspect with Fultz expecting more playing time now, Milton will be seeing more of the G-League than Philly. 

Re-signed: JJ Reddick (1yr/$12.25m), Amir Johnson (1yr/$2.3m), Demetrius Jackson, TJ McConnell (team option)
Bringing back Reddick and Johnson each for another year is a good move for the Sixers (who are probably looking at 2019-2020 as their real blasting off point). It keeps continuity without busting the payroll and since they didn't have a GM all summer, who were they gonna sign anyway? Jackson is an intriguing G-League level talent, he'll keep the minor league stocked if nothing else. Personally I love McConnell, I think he's the best 2nd string PG in the league and I consider him very much a part of Philly's core--hell, I would've signed him long term this summer with an eye toward grooming him as an asst coach or upstairs in Personnel--telling ya, he was a huge part of their success last season, not the flashy star but the motor guy that keeps the 2nd string humming along when everyone else wants to take a break.

All in all
The Sixers didn't really get better or worse this summer (*), they just shuffled out some people and shuffled in mostly like-for-like replacements. I'm cool with this move--or lack of moves. The next step for this team is the maturation of Simmons, Saric, Embiid, and Fultz. If each of those guys is slightly better than last year--and Fultz almost certainly will be--then this team should get better without any significant free agent upgrades. The roster didn't need an overhail, it just needed maturation. In the mean time they Hinkie-d up another pile of future 2nd round picks, stayed cap flexible and look to have plenty of money for next summer (Klay Thompson, Klay Thompson, Klay Thompson!).

That said, I don't think this team is vastly better than last year, not do I see them going deeper in the post-season. Last year, their success was largely a monster run at the end of the year after a mediocre opening. This season I would expect them to start better but I doubt they finish as well as they did--they rode a soft schedule and low expectations to a mighty charge into the playoffs. I don't think they're as good as the Celtics or Raptors, hard to tell what the Bucks or Pacers will be and while I don't expect the Pistons, Hornets or Heat to be monsters, I would expect them to be in the playoff hunt. I think 3rd is as high as this team could possibly finish but I wouldn't be surprised if the high expectations they avoided last year become something of a burden for them as the season wears on. I think Fultz will shine out, I think Zhaire Smith (if he plays) should have a promising rookie campaign and I'm really curious to see what they get from Bolden, Korkmaz and Milton. This team is nice--good, even--but this isn't the season for them to really start looking like greatness. Next summer (when all the vets disappear and just the creamy core of youth remains) is when they start shopping for the next level.


(*) Well, getting rid of GM Colangelo is an upgrade in my opinion. Let me just take one more moment to rant about this disaster: the NBA basically forced the Sixers to get rid of the shameful Sam Hinkie (who built this playoff roster) to bring in the shining Bryan Colangelo--who did nothing to make this a better team and showed himself (and his wife) to be an embarrassment. I think the Sixers ownership should be at the very least SUPER FUCKING PISSED that the NBA foisted this waste of space on them and, seriously, I'd consider litigation, as this was a highly unprofessional and possibly criminal move on the league's part. Meanwhile the architect of this team is still unemployed solely because the NBA wanted to make an example of him. Seriously, that's fucked up, man.

Saturday, October 14, 2017

2017-18 NBA Preview: Atlantic Division

Celtics
PG Kyrie, SG Smart, SF Hayward, PF Marcus Morris, C Horford
Bench: PG Rozier/Larkin, SF Brown/Tatum, PF C Baynes

The Celtics finally made all those moves we've been waiting for all these years. And they were huge.  In: Kyrie, Hayward, Marcus Morris; Out: Isiah Thomas (as beloved a Boston sports figure as there has been lately), Jae Crowder, Avery Bradley, Kelly Olynyk, Amir Johnson, Jonas Jerebko. The Celtics of recent vintage have a featured a lot of nice players that played their small parts; but that depth isn't there any more. Off the bench is a lot of untested Rooks: Yabusele, Ojelewe, Nader, Holmes, Williams, (everyone loves 2nd round picks....til they start filling out your bench), in addition to Jaysun Tatum (who should get regular rotation action right away). I like the talent up top, I love Coach Stevens and while the expectations are higher than ever, I can't help feeling like they are one Kyrie injury away from being in a bad spot (how deep they going with Shane Larkin?). Oh well, I like them to finish tops in the East with 58 wins.

Raptors
PG Lowry, SG DeRozan, SF Miles , PF Ibaka, C Valenciunas
Bench: PG Van Vleet, SG Wright/McDaniels, SF Powell/Anunoby, PF Poetl/Caboclo/Siakam, C Noquiera/Meeks

The way this team got smoked by the Cavs in the playoffs last year was kinda sad. But all they can do is run it back. My guess is they come out hot, challenge for 1st in the East for much of the year...and then get smoked by the Cavs again in the playoffs. *sigh* Man, they really are committed to that starting five (and I suspect they'll wrap up Powell as their 6th man going forward), so grinding and hoping they get lucky against Lebron is where this team is at for the next few years. I kinda like the depth of this team but all that is entirely in support to Lowry and DeRozan, those two must stay healthy for the Raptors to be any good at all. I'll go ahead and assume them to be healthy enough to get it done. I like them to finish 2nd in the East with 54 wins.

Sixers
PG Fultz, SG Redick, SF Simmons, PF Saric, C Embiid
Bench: PG McConnell/Bayless, SG Stauskus/Anderson, SF Covington/Luwawu, PF Jahlil Okafor/Humphries/Holmes, C Johnson/Emeka Okafor

Process 2.0 is about to get started. The Sixers have been sacrificing W's in service of hoarding toys like a fat kid after Xmas but now the toy box is full and its time to play. They've augmented the rookies (Fultz, Simmons, Korkmaz) and the other youngsters (Stauskus, Okafor, Saric, Anderson, Luwawau, Holmes still on rookie contracts) with a handful of vets (Redick, Bayless, Humphries, Emeka Okafor (Emeka Okafor?!?!), Amir Johhnson) to season the serving. Okay, how are they gonna be? I dunno. Embiid showed that he can play, Saric showed the he can play, Okafor showed he can play (but everyone somehow never saw what I saw), and I think Stauskus, McConnell, Anderson and Luwawu can be effective in limited play, throw in those veterans and this is a pretty good team. Just a matter of how all the pieces fit together. I think they're in the hunt for the 8th spot at year's end (I don't think they get it), with 36 wins.

Knicks
PG Nikilitina, SG Hardaway, SF Beasley, PF Porzingis, C Kanter
Bench: PG Jack/Baker, SG Sessions/Dotson, SF McDermott/Kuzminkas, PF Noah/Hernangomez, C O'Quinn

First take on Knick PG's: am I rude for thinking that Nikilitina is the poor man's Tony Parker, Jack is the poor man's Kemba Walker and Ron Baker is the poor man's TJ McConnell? First take on Knick SG's: they're all PG's, aren't they? Do they have any scorers? First take on Knick SF's: a coupla reclamation projects and a youngster happy to get out from under Melo's shadow. Getting rid of Melo didn't make this team better or worse, strangely enough. I think Porzingis is free to do whatever he wants, hope for the best for young Nikilitina, and I expect the Knicks to match last year's W total: 31.

Nets
PG Russell, SG Crabbe, SF LaVert, PF Hollis-Jefferson, C Mozgov
Bench: PG Lin/Harris, SG Whitehead/Dinwiddie, SF Booker/Acy, PF Carroll, C Zeller/Allen

This is D'Angelo Russell's team now, I expect Jarrett Allen to get regular playing time by the end of the year and I expect plenty of time for LaVert and Hollis-Jefferson and Whitehead because...well...why not? (Hmmm, think they'd like to have Kyle Kuzma right now, too?)  They're in on Crabbe and Mozgov for the next 3 years but otherwise they're starting to get their cap flexibility back. If Coach Atkinson gets them to play hard and build that culture around Russell/Allen/LeVert/Hollis-Jefferson by next summer they'll be in the hunt for some good free agents. I think they'll win 27 games.

Sunday, June 28, 2015

Draft Evaluation (Atlantic)

Wizards (#15 Oubre (trade), #49 White) Oubre is high risk/reward, they're hoping an Oubre/Porter platoon can replace Paul Pierce. They'd love to get decent cheap bench minutes down low out of White as he'll be cheap enough he might make the roster (if Summer League isn't a disaster). Wall, Beal, Webster, Gortat, Nene is the starting five. Humphries off the bench down low, Oubre and Porter off the bench on the wings, Sessions for PG. Solid enough for the East but not a lot of flexibility though there are still roster spots to fill. Does this team beat the Pacers or Hawks in the playoffs? Too early to say.

Celtics (#16 Rozier, #28 Hunter, #33 Mickey, #45 Thornton) Risk/reward kinda draft. Hunter might be a for-real scorer...or he might be utterly awful. Rozier might be a confident ballhandler and playmaker...or he might be overmatched at the next level. Mickey might be a nasty defender down low or a ball hawking rebounder...or he might be a career D-league. Thornton might be...I dunno who he is...but he might something other than what he's supposed to be. The Celtics kinda got stuck in the middle with this draft: they need to draft their stars, they can't count on free agency. Ainge has drafted well over the years and I think they did well again with this haul, but there aren't any stars in there, just another batch of nice role players. The Celtics must have a big trade this summer, we'll see what comes.

Nets (#23 Hollis-Jefferson (trade), #29 McCullough) McCullough is hurt, probably won't play this year. Hollis-Jefferson is expected to be an all-world on-ball defender but not much else. The Nets have to get cheaper, can't imagine they'll be any good at all this year (but I thought that last summer and they still made the playoffs). These picks are for the future, the cheaper, younger future.

Sixers (#3 Okafor, #35 Hernangomez, #37 Holmes, #47 Gudaitis, #58 Tokoto, #60 Mitrovic) I think Okafor and Nerlens can play together, if so expect Embiid to be available by the 2016 draft. I think all 3 of the 2nd round foreigners are for the future, and as for Holmes and Tokoto, they'll get a chance because the Sixers are still dedicated to sucking for one more year at least. This year is about finding out if Nerlens and Okafor make a good combo, if so then there is finally something to build around. Expect the Sixers to earn themselves another lottery pick next year, add in 1st rounders from the Heat (probably around #25 or so) and the Lakers (mid-teens, maybe lottery), and whatever they can get for Embiid (I'd think a top ten 2016, another 1st rounder 2017). I think next summer is the time the Sixers have targeted to make their splash in free agency (....or perhaps they'll never make that splash and just keep accumulating value in the form of draft picks rather than W's).

Knicks (#4 Porzingis, #19 Grant (trade)) I can understand the NYK faithful to be gunshy about another Euro wunderkind and, hey man, Phil would've rather been anywhere than #4 in this draft. But the buzz is the kid can play. Frankly the Knicks are more dangerous to his future than the other way around. I wish the kid well, his highlights are pretty sick and before you call him tiny, he's actually bigger and stronger than Anthony Davis. If he's good in New York, the Knicks will be building around him soon enough; if he's not, Utah Jazz might be up for a blockbuster trade.