Wednesday, May 13, 2015

An NFL Counterfactual

As a lifelong Buffalo Bills fan (I know...I know) it has long seemed to me that the fate the Bills endured hinged entirely on one single play and it could've all been different.  Here's what happened: Norwood misses the winning FG against the Giants, the Bills came back next year and promptly spotted the Redskins 14 points (then outscore them for the rest of the game), the Bills came back a 3rd time and got curb-stomped by the Cowboys, the Bills came back a 4th straight and get soundly beaten (though I wouldn't say 'curb-stomped') by the Cowboys again.  The Bills then began their inevitable slide, free agents began to peel off, injuries piled up, etc., and the heyday was over.  But it could've been different.  It all comes down to Norwood's kick.

If Norwood makes that FG instead of pushing it wide, I think the Bills go on to win the Super Bowl the next year against the Redskins.  They had already beaten the Skins in the regular season and if the Bills came into the game as the defending champs rather than last year's bumblers, I don't think they spot the Skins two quick TD's.  Instead, they outplay the Skins, hold them off late and call themselves 2-time champs.

The next year the Bills return to their 3rd straight Super Bowl...and get shellacked by the Cowboys. Personally I always thought that Cowboys team, the first Jimmy Johnson champion, was the baddest team I ever saw and even if the Bills roll in as the 2-time defending champs, I think they would've gotten their hats handed to them.  Losing to the Redskins in the 2nd trip was a product of choking the previous Super Bowl, but even if they hadn't choked the previous two Super Bowls, the Cowboys were awesome that year and would've pounded the Bills under any conditions.  (Yeah, there's no version of history where that beatdown isn't for real)

Then the Bills flounder in the playoffs the next year and don't return for a 4th trip.

So in my version, the Bills win 2 straight Super Bowls, lose a 3rd one and then disappear a year earlier than reality.  The NFL is a copy cat league, everyone emulates the champion until someone just morphs into a brand new champion for everyone to emulate anew.  If the Bills won those Super Bowls instead of losing them, the domino effect throughout the league may have been huge.  Perhaps the Bills players or coaches would've been plundered sooner or targeted on the field in different ways. Unfortunately those teams are only remembered for not being good enough but that was a great squad and 4 straight AFC titles was no fluke.  

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