Potential Player Movement This Summer: Player Options

Aaron Aflalo has already exercised his player option ($7.9m) and will likely leave Portland.  Who will follow him to the open market?  I don't know what these guys will do but here's my general perception as a watcher.

This summer's player options: Lebron ($21.5m), Brook Lopez ($16.7), K Love ($16.7), D Wade ($16.1), Eric Gordon ($15.5), Hibbert ($15.5), Big Al Jefferson ($13.8), David West ($12), Deng ($10.1), Jeff Green ($9.4), Monta Ellis ($8.7), Dragic ($7.5), JR Smith ($6.3), Gerald Henderson ($6), Pierce ($5.5), Budinger ($5), Corey Brewer ($4.9), Felton ($3.9), Hinrich ($2.8), Jameer Nelson ($2.8), Mike Miller ($2.8), Steve Blake ($2.1), Danny Granger ($2.1), Aaron Gray ($1.3), Alan Anderson ($1.3), Brandon Rush ($1.2), Cartier Martin ($1.2), Garret Temple ($1.1), Aminu ($1.1), Ed Davis ($1m).

A few will opt out to get raises from their own teams rather than hit the market: Lebron, Love, Wade, Ellis, Dragic, Brewer, Blake, Aminu

These guys have the luxury of re-configuring their current deals.  Maybe they actually wanna skip town (or need to look that way to gain leverage), but probably they just want more money to do the same thing in the same place next year.  All these guys have earned it and I think they will get raises from their current teams rather than move on.

A few will opt out to get out: Lopez, (maybe Love goes here), Green, (maybe Monta goes here), Pierce, (maybe Brewer), Jameer, (maybe Blake), Granger, (maybe Aminu), (maybe Davis)

These guys think they can get paid more somewhere else or have some other reason to prefer a new team.  Lopez is a good solid center but there will be a lot of quality centers out there, Lopez could be somebody's overpriced prize or maybe he falters and he wishes he just stayed in Brooklyn.  Right now Love is saying all the proper patriotic things about staying with the Cavs, perhaps its genuine, perhaps its all a smokescreen and he jets off to sunnier climes as soon as the free agent period begins; I suspect he wanted to be in Cleveland all along, that trio will dominate the East for 5-6 years at least, why would he leave?  But maybe he always wanted to play for the Lakers or Knicks or whoever.  Jeff Green hasn't turned out to be a fit in Memphis, but he's good enough to get a decent deal somewhere (hello, Denver!).  If the Wizards sneak out of the East then maybe Pierce sticks around but I doubt it; he'll have many options this summer (returning to the Celtics just in time for the team to get good again seems like the natural fit, don't it?) and the Wizards should be one of those options. Brewer is a great playmaker off the bench, I think the Rockets should hold to him but the Rockets like to grab even when they can't grasp, so I can see Brewer playing just about anywhere next year.  Jameer spent double digit years in Orlando...and has been to 3 cities in the last year.  And I reckon he'll head back East, he can do better than Denver and I think he will.  Blake had a solid season for the Blazers, that team looks like it may disintegrate quickly, Blake could play it for a raise or he may be a-searchin' for greener pastures.  Granger might retire, though he was a badass not that long ago, he's kind of invisible now, I'd like to see him go to Utah, he may well be the right veteran presence.  Aminu gave as good a defensive effort on Harden as I've seen anyone give all year, that alone should earn him well more than his scheduled $1.1m (hell, the Rockets ought to give him $5m at least).  I don't really know Ed Davis but my perception is that he's an under appreciated player, perhaps he can get more than $1m.

A few won't opt out because they don't think they'll get more money somewhere else: (maybe Lopez goes here), Gordon, Big Al, JR Smith, Felton, Rush

I still submit Eric Gordon's (1 yr/$15.3m) contract as the worst 1 year deal in the league, though there may be a team out there that wants to pay him more but I think he's lucky to be paid so much to play alongside Anthony Davis.  Big Al has had his ups and his downs, there will be a lot of centers out there, his flaws will be on display, since I suspect Charlotte is where he wants to be anyway, I think he plays out his deal.  JR is in a pretty good situation playing Byron Scott to Lebron (Magic), Kyrie (other Magic), and Love (Worthy), he should stick around.  I'm not sure Felton has another NBA contract in him, I reckon he plays this year with the Mavs, then roams the league for as long as he can.  I'm not sure who Rush is or what he does or whether he should get another contract (some guys are great practice guys, locker room guys, they fill out your roster just to be good influences, nice guys, gophers, cheerleaders, etc) but I reckon he plays out his current deal.

A few won't opt out because they actually like their current situation: Hibbert, West, Deng, Hinrich, Miller, Martin

Hibbert could hit the market and probably get paid (though still an offensive liability, he's also still a defensive badass), West too (great veteran presence, solid player, affordable deal), but I think they fit the Pacers and vice versa, with George coming back and a lottery pick coming in, why leave now? The Heat look to be pretty good, Deng could be a 6th Man type candidate coming off that bench. Hinrich is as much a part of the Bulls as Noah or D Rose.  Who else is gonna pay Mike Miller to be a cheerleader?  My recollection is that Stan Van targeted Cartier Martin as someone he really wanted, so I reckon he stays right there.

And some will .... I dunno: Henderson, Budinger, Anderson, Gray, Temple

Gerald Henderson is one of those irrational confidence guys that occasionally looks good and just as often looks terrible, as up and down as any current player I can think of.  (Can he get more money outside of Charlotte?  I dunno.  Should he get more money?  I dunno.  Does he want to leave Charlotte?  I dunno)  I dunno about Budinger, never thought much of his game honestly, think $5m is probably about what he ought to get, but maybe there's someone out there that thinks he can be the poor man's Chandler Parsons.  Alan Anderson is not a bad player and he can be a good bench player on a really good team (Heat, Clippers) or he can be an overworked, underpaid horse for a godawful Nets squad...what does he prefer?  I dunno.  Will Aaron Gray get another NBA contract?  I dunno.  Garret Temple is an okay player, a pretty good back up PG, he could maybe get more money somewhere else but I'm hard pressed to think of that other place.

Pointless Trade Idea

There looks to be a lot of free agent movement this summer.  This could lead to more sign-and-trade deals allowing players to maximize pay while teams maximize roster/cap flexibility.  An example.

Rajon Rondo clearly does not fit with the Mavs.  He expected to play hard this year (whether in Boston or elsewhere) and get a big money deal this off-season.  I don't think that big money deal is out there (even the Lakers, who are certainly foolhardy enough to give Rondo big money, may find even foolhardier options available) and there are frankly only a coupla places he could play even at so-so money.  So where does he get big money?  (He does not)  Where does he get to play big minutes?  (Not a lot of places)

Rondo could play with the Bulls.  And by that I mean he could play with Noah.  To my mind Noah is the one running that offense (a la Marc Gasol, Chris Webber, Sabonis), his hands are sure hands and having them on the ball never makes the coach sweat (this is a soccer quality or maybe hockey), running the offense through him might not be sexy but it will be efficient, clean and productive.  Rondo can play off of Noah, playing a 2-man game to set up Pao, D Rose, Butler, Mirotic (I think Dunleavy's gone next year).  Noah gets his settling touches, Rondo can dominate the ball without having to score, the other guys can set up and play off the ball just fine; Rondo fits the defensive scheme to a T (Rondo and Noah could be a wicked defensive duo).  The Bulls are the one place that I think Rondo can really be old time Rondo again and make a good team better.

But the Bulls don't have money to spend.  If they could jettison contracts, then Rondo becomes somewhat affordable (if he's willing to backload a deal, the Bulls could afford to overpay as the cap expands).  The way for Rondo to get to the Bulls (or any number of places) is much easier as a sign-and-trade than as a free agent signing.  The Mavs need bodies on their roster so a sign-and-trade could be advantageous for them.

How about this: Rondo re-signs for 1st year/$10m, that matches well with Taj Gibson (2 yrs/$8.5 next year) and Tony Snell (2 yrs/$1.5m next year).  Taj Gibson is falling through the cracks in Chicago (not unlike Omer Asik, Brad Miller, Ron Artest, Elton Brand, Tyson Chandler--Bulls got a history), but I think his poor man's Tyson Chandler routine fits with Coach Carlisle and that's not a bad deal over the next 2 years (with or without Tyson Chandler).  Snell is a backup but he's cheap enough to keep as a 3rd string guy, he'll get minutes (if he can get hot as a shooter he can be a star in Dallas).

Bulls get to bring in a star and let go of two guys that weren't gonna play anyway.  Can the Mavs leverage more from the Bulls for Rondo?  Probably but I wouldn't think the Bulls would be into getting gutted for Rondo.  Let's say the Bulls throw in a 2016 2nd round pick and a 2020 2nd round pick (protected).  Rondo for Taj, Snell and 2 2nd round draft picks?  I think Rondo works for the Bulls and the Mavs could use affordably priced bodies.

Keep an eye out for sign-and-trades this year within the usual free agent movement this summer.