Sunday, May 24, 2015

The #4 Pick

NYK is cursed with the most dangerous (and potentially worthless pick) in the whole draft (and its their only pick of the night). A #4 pick is not a #1 pick, a #4 pick is nice but nothing so sparkling in Phil Jax's eye.  The Knicks need help all over the roster, what can they expect of a rookie outside of the top 3?  Phil wants vets, he'll take rookies because they're cheap (and the Knicks need everything right now), but he'd rather have vets at every position.  I think if they could get two get bodies, even if one is just a lower draft pick, they'd trade #4.

For next season the Knicks currently have 6 guys signed at $34.9m (not sure they've picked up the 3rd year rookie option on Shane Larkin, but I assume they will): PF Anthony, PG Calderon, PG Larkin, PG Hardaway, SF Early, PG/SG Galloway.  The salary hit $80m this past season, expecting that number to be similar this year, it gives them plenty o' money to throw around this summer.  They will definitely be heavy in the free agent market.

Okafor, Towns and Russell are likely to be gone by #4.  The highest graded prospects are Mudiay, Winslow, Porzingas.  Does Phil Jackson think Mudiay is a potential superstar? Phil wants to get a veteran team that can compete sooner rather than later in the East and a rookie PG probably ain't gonna get that done in the next year or two.  Is Mudiay worth the wait?  I'm not sure but I doubt Phil would think he is.  Winslow could be a great mid-range scorer at the next level, part James Harden, part Harrison Barnes; but for the Knicks, he'd just be Melo's backup, which would leave no room for development.  I like Winslow but he doesn't fit NYK.  Porzingas offers the size down low the Knicks need and a rookie C can be a little more relied upon than a rookie PG.  But he's European, man, he might be great but he could be brutally awful.  Here are some foreigners in recent NYK history: Bargnani, Galinari, Calderon, Mozgov (all grown up and ready to carry Lebron's water for the next few years).  If Phil thinks the kid can be a star then I can see him taking Porzingas; but unless Phil is really feeling this kid's potential, then I think he looks toward the NCAA.

They could reach for Croatian SG Hezonja (I doubt it) or Arizona SF Johnson (I doubt it).  After that comes another flurry of big guys: Texas C Turner and Kentucky PF's Cauley-Stein, Lyles.  If the Knicks can't trade the pick, I can see them grabbing one of those guys.  I think Turner could become a nice down low scoring C and he's big and young and cheap, if Phil reaches for him perhaps it'll to be some kinda Eye of the Tiger mojo move.  I'm telling y'all: Cauley-Stein has DPOY talent in him. Think young Tyson Chandler with Joakim Noah opportunism, Cauley-Stein is a supreme athlete.  He won't score more 9ppg (and that will come in lumpy distributions) but he's gonna be a great rebounder, great downlow defender, great wing defender and he'll run the break and he'll score around the rim.  Big star?  I doubt it but a much needed rotation guy, the kinda guy every big star will want next to him.  I think he's worth a top 5 pick though others are worried about his lack of offense. Lyles, on the other hand, should be a nice wing scorer, decent defender, decent rebounder.  He's got pretty good skill with the ball (better than Towns, I'd say) and I think he'll be a pretty good scorer in the NBA.  Might be a reach at #4 but NYK needs size more than anything.

Look, the Knicks don't want this pick.  They don't want anyone that'll be there at #4.  They might take Mudiay but I think Phil would rather sign Rondo or trade for Lawson; they might take Winslow but I'm telling you, man, putting him next to Melo would just be useless; they could take Porzingas for his trade value.  But if they end up making a pick to keep, I wouldn't be surprised to see them reach for either Turner, Lyles or Cauley-Stein.  I think they'd rather trade for vets that can play now but I can see them trading down to get into a different range of prospect.

No comments: