Sunday, May 3, 2015

Playoff Predictions (East)

Bulls-Cavs
This was my pre-season pick and here we are.  I thought the roles would be reversed, the Bulls with home court advantage, but I don't think it much matters.  Game 6 was a debacle for the Bucks but I think it may have been the wakeup call the Bulls have been waiting for.  I thought at the beginning of the year the Bulls would get out of the East (and lose to the Spurs....nope) but all season long I kept waiting for the Bulls to be better.  They were a fine team, but I never saw unstoppable.  The Hawks were the juggernaut team this year but it feels like it should've been the Bulls: Pau had a great 1st year, Butler had a great maturation season, D Rose was in and out but generally a positive contributor, Noah wasn't great but it never felt like he had to be this year (could be that not be needed is his Kryptonite), Mirotic was a pleasant surprise all over the court, Dunleavy and Brooks slid back to their proper positions and contributed just fine; that alone is way more than they had last year so why aren't they any better than last year?  The Hawks made no moves and took off this year, the Bulls made many good moves and are in the same place they were last year.  I thought they'd be a better regular season team and a dangerous force come playoff time.  The Bucks gave a belated challenge and made the Bulls look sloppy but game 6 was the united front performance the Bulls needed.  (Note that Mirotic played sparingly, see if Dunleavy gets more meaningful minutes while Mirotic gets spot duty against the Cavs)

The Cavs tried hard to make the Celtics look good but in the end they blew past them just like they always should have.  They lost Love for the rest of the playoffs (my first thought was the injury story was smokescreen allowing Love to return at his own pace, but surgery's no joke, guess he's out) and they're without JR Smith for the first two games at home; losing Love is tough: he could've spread the floor and kept Noah in check, now the Cavs need Mozgov and Thompson to man up and play some damn ball.  And losing Smith too is a blow especially since he's missing home games where the role players generally contribute more in the playoffs.  Kyrie can outscore most anyone he plays against and Lebron is still the best player in basketball, they can beat the Bulls.  But this was already an imperfect team now further limited.  Been 4 years since Lebron and the Spurs have both lost in the playoffs (and then to the team that beat them both), but I think the Bulls get it going.  I'll say Pau has 2 big games, Butler has 1 big game and D Rose has 1 big game and the Bulls move on.  Bulls in 6 (1,2,4,6).

Wizards-Hawks
The Wizards are peaking.  They did this last year too: played their best basketball after the all-star break, smoked the Bulls, ran into #1 Pacers (who had been struggling mightily).  Seemed like everything was right for the Wizards....but they lost.  Scenario kinda the same this year. no?  Wall is ready to be a star, Beal is dangerous, Pierce is the old timey Pierce, Gortat is in a good mood and playing good ball, Otto Porter stepped off the milk carton and into our hearts, even Drew Gooden is raining 3's.  Oh, times are good in DC!

The Hawks haven't played their best ball in quite some time.  That January freight train has long since left the station.  The Nets pushed the #1 seed further than anyone else got pushed in the East but the Nets only suck because they kinda want to not because they actually suck, so I'm not gonna clown the Hawks for not sweeping them.  As with the Bulls, I was impressed with their game 6: confident, in control, the Nets had a stretch where they just couldn't help but turn the ball over, the game was over quick.  The January Hawks are not walking through that door but I think the April Hawks are about to get their game on and show the Wiz what's what.  Teague and Korver can outscore Wall and Beal, the Wizards' difference maker is Pierce and I just can't see Pierce pulling out 4 games.  It'll be tough but I think the Hawks have too much offense for the Wizards.   Hawks in 6 (1,4,5,6).

Conference Finals: Bulls-Hawks
That should be a pretty good match.  My gut right now is the Bulls will enter drained from the Cavs, the Hawks will enter rejuvenated from the Wizards.  Hawks in 7.

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