Monday, May 4, 2015

Potential Player Movement This Summer: Team Options

Not nearly as many team options as player options but there are a few notable players in there: Anthony Davis, Papanikolau, Mozgov, Caron Butler, Waiters, Speights, Drummond, Austin Rivers, John Jenkins, Beasley

When a team wants to keep a player long term, the time to do it is going into the team option year; next year the player will be a restricted free agent (RFA) and the team can only match another team's offer.  The Pelicans very much want to keep Anthony Davis (very very much) for more than just the coming year.  They'd like to re-sign him now and not wait til next year.  Davis can make more money on that deal than he can with any other deal but Davis's best interest is to get to the best team so he can get playoff exposure and win games and be a hero, etc.  This relationship isn't about money: the Pelicans are going to offer Davis the absolute maximum that he can possibly be paid, its up to Davis to take or leave it.  The Pelicans' attempts to surround Davis with talent right now has been valiant but not successful.  I presume Davis stays in New Orleans whether he signs this summer or next but he could maximize his own leverage if he chooses to exert himself.

Papanikolau had some nice moments in the Rockets rotation before he got hurt and faded toward the end of the season.  The Rockets are an active team, guys will be coming and going from Houston this year but I think they'll keep Papanikolau (and maybe trade him).

Mozgov has played well with the Cavs, fits better than expected with Kyrie and Lebron.  I reckon they look to extend him (and I reckon he takes it).

Personally I don't see any method to Stan Van's madness in Detroit, so I haven't the slightest idea if the Pistons want to keep Butler.  (Probably depends on whether Butler thinks he can get more than $4.5m somewhere else and how badly Butler's agent can pester SV into cutting him loose)

OKC looks to keep Enes Kanter which I think means they have to let Waiters go.  They have a lot of gunners-off-the-bench as it is, Waiters is not something the Thunder need next year anyway.  (I suppose he could be trade bait but that has its limitations)

Speights has a had a nice coupla years with the Warriors but they have to cut salary next year which I would think would make Speights unattainable.  (Or he could be a low cost efficiency option if they can move Lee and Iguodala)

The Pistons will not (cannot!) let Drummond get away.

Austin Rivers is an overly maligned player...but he's not great.  That said, the Clippers would seem to be the best place for him right now.  He had one good playoff game, is that enough for Doc to open the bank and keep Junior?  (I got a dollar and a dime the answer is yes)

Jenkins doesn't look to be in the Hawks' future plans.  He could be bench filler for them next year or over the side of the boat this summer.

Beasley probably can't play anywhere else besides Miami.  The Heat might need to get salary to make moves this summer but if not, Beasley is a reasonable bench player for them.

There are also a coupla 2013 draft picks going into back to back team option years: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Trey Burke, Shane Larkin, Sergey Karasev, Mason Plumlee, Rudy Gobert

Its a foregone conclusion that all of these guys will return with their teams next year, just a matter of whether they get extended by next summer.  I am personally not high on KCP or Burke, those guys could have a year to contemplate a future change of scenery.  Larkin had a so-so year with the godawful Knicks, not sure he gets more than 2nd string minutes going into his next contract.  Karasev has a torn MCL, looks to miss most of next season after only playing 33 games this year, not sure he's got a long future in the NBA.  Plumlee has had nice moments, he's still cheap enough to be irresistible for the Nets, I suspect he'll be in Brooklyn through their next transformation.  Gobert is a star, a legit DPOY candidate next year, pay the man!

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