2025-26 NFL (Conference Championship)

AFC

Bills 30-33 (OT) Broncos

QB Josh Allen played the worst game of is life--and the Bills still should've won! 2 fumbles and 2 INTs that led to 3 FGs for the Broncos (and killed at least one pretty clear scoring opportunity for Buffalo) and yet the Bills were still in control late in the 4th and again in OT. Allen's problem is that he is trying to hit grand slams on every play instead of taking the singles and doubles that are available; so for the first 3 quarters he tries to do too much and only settles down when the clock starts to run out. If he played a little more....boring....throughout, I think he'd be a much more successful QB. (*) The Broncos had the right game plan and they pulled it off, but I think Allen's mistakes were more fatal than Bo Nix's and the Bills just couldn't emerge from the quicksand. Good win for the Broncos, they're a fine team that has made the most of their chances. 

Texans 16-28 Patriots

Wow, QB Stroud had the worst game of his life and yet the Texans were still in the game in the 4th quarter because as much ballyhooed as QB Drake Maye is, he wasn't that great on this day either. The difference: the Pats somehow managed to recover Maye's many many fumbles, whereas Stroud's interceptions were gone for good. Seriously, Stroud looked lost, he was uncommitted to his own choices, made such bad throws that he literally injured one of his receivers (no lie, torn ACL trying to reach back for a bad pass), he mostly looked like a guy that didn't want to be there. The Pats were better but somehow they didn't put the game away until pretty late and their offense mostly sputtered against the Texans pass rush. If Stroud could've pulled it together after half time, the game was still there to be taken. I like both of the QBs, I hope they are neither too high nor too low going forward because I still believe in both of them.

NFC

Niners 6-41 Seahawks

This is the third match between these two this season, felt to me coming in that even though the Niners had injuries, they would enough familiarity with their opponent and enough moxy and veteran savvy to put a real scare into their division foes. Nope. The Niners were done before they got off the bus. The Seahawks returned the opening kickoff for a TD and...well...that alone outscored the Niners on this day. The Niners really shouldn't have beaten the Eagles, but they were just begging to get beat. The Seahawks should've been tested with a fitter opponent, but instead they got a free pass to the conference championship. 

Rams 20-17 (OT) Bears

Fun game! (sorta) The wind and snow made for inhospitable conditions but it made the game interesting. Neither team could move the ball consistently and crazy plays were in abundance. None crazier than the longest 14-yard TD pass I've ever seen, which sent the game into OT.

I dunno, people will be down on QB Caleb Williams, I suppose, but he did what he had to do and it just came up short. Weird thought: I thought the Rams were probably the better team and this probably was the right outcomes, but the Bears had their shot to take it in OT and probably should've won. I dunno, they were both good, the Rams were better.

 

AFC

Pats @ Broncos (+3.5, 43.5)

#1 v #2....but does anyone really think these are the two best teams in the AFC? I like their young QBs and their experienced coaches, but I think they both overachieved this season in a conference with a lot of underachievers. They're both nice teams, they both did what they needed to do to get this far and they both deserve a gold star for doing their best. But, again, does anyone think these are the two best teams in the AFC? Well, especially considering that QB Nix is out with a broken ankle (an injury suffered very late in the Bills game and not even noticed until the coach announced at the post-game presser) and the Broncos will be riding long time back up QB Jarrett Stidham (**), who is as beloved a backup QB as there is in the league right now, so I guess the Broncos will have some confidence. The game plan for the Broncos is the same as it was for the Texans last week: crank up the pass rush, get in Drake Maye's face, clog up the running lanes, try to create turnovers (Maye does have 6 fumbles in the last 2 games) and set up easy scoring chances for your so-so offense. If they can turn the Pats over, they can definitely win the game. For the Pats, keep moving the ball, avoid turnovers, keep the Bronco offense in front of you, don't give up big plays. This game is all about turnovers, whoever gives the ball away will lose. I think there's a decent chance that that is the Pats' downfall here. I think the Broncos D comes up big, Stidham does enough and the Broncos steal it. Broncos 21-20 (Broncos and the under)

NFC

Rams @ Seahawks (-2.5, 45.5)

The Seahawks get another familiar division opponent this week. Last week it was the last gasp of the Niners, will this week be peak Rams or another last gasp? The Rams had moments of this season of arguably the best offense in the league....but that was a while ago. We haven't seen that high flying attack since before Xmas. The Seahawks all season long have been the best defense in the league, a robotic hitting machine that gets into the backfield and minimizes plays at the second level. The weird part of this game is Seahawks QB Darnold: he's been good all year long but he hasn't really had to be great and in the past whenever he needed to be great, he wasn't. Also, the Seahawks have an exceptionally 1-dimensional offense (namely WR Smith-Njigba) with not much variation. Will the Seahawks need Darnold to rise up? Maybe not. But if they do, will he show? Not sure. If the Rams play their best game, it'll challenge Darnold to make plays; but if the Seahawks D crushes a flailing Rams attack, then the Seahawks should win easily. This game really is a conundrum: I can see either team winning or losing in a blowout and likewise I can see either snatching victory late or having it snatched from them. I think the Seahawks defense is really good (special teams, too), but the offense is very rickety; I think the Rams offense at its best is a monster but at its worst will get swallowed up by the Seahawks rather easily. The least likely scenario would be a high scoring shootout, where the Rams toss aside the vaunted Seahawks D and Darnold plays the game of his life...but that would make for the most fun game and since I have no idea how to handicap this, I'll take the fun scenario. Seahawks 38-35 (Seahawks and the over)

(*) Life long Bills fan, I utterly adore Josh Allen, think he's the greatest in the game right now, but if he would just button up a smidge and take the easy plays, he would have fewer highlights and more wins. Don't listen to me, Josh, don't ever change, you're awesome and I appreciate all that you do...but I suspect you'd get more if you did less.

(**) Dude, I swear I thought Stidham was black, I see a white guy and I'm like, wait, I thought I knew what this guy looked like. Nope. That's the life of a backup QB, even one as seemingly prized as Stidham.

2025-26 NFL (Division Round)

Rams 34-31 Panthers

The Rams should have destroyed the Panthers, they didn't. Credit the Panthers for getting it up for the playoffs, but the Rams should've handled this quicker. I want to fall in love with the veteran savvy of the Rams, I'm a huge Stafford fan, but they just don't inspire confidence. 

Packers 27-31 Bears

This game was over. The Packers had a commanding lead and the Bears were struggling. Then....I dunno....the Bears pile up points and stole the game. This is one of those classic WTF-just-happened games. Don't mess with the Bears, man, they are so hard to put away.  

Bills 27-24 Jaguars

If the Jags had stuck to their commitment to the run (particluarly outside the tackles), I think they would've won this game rather easily. But they didn't do that, they kept trying to pass, and the Bills vanilla zone was able to absorb the attack. Meanwhile, Josh Allen suffered through 10 different injuries, kept chugging along and stole the victory. The game was on Jacksonville's racket and they failed to serve it out, a bit disappointing really. But Allen is a monster. 

Niners 23-19 Eagles

The Eagles sat around yelling at each other instead of just winning the game, which was a readily winnable game. The highs and lows of this Eagle team over the last 5 years or so will be studied for years to come: unbeatable when they feel like it, boring as hell when they don't show up. As for the Niners, QB Purdy is a steady force, he just never quits, you think he won't get it done but there he is getting it done. They lost TE Kittle but considering they never really got RB McCaffrey going, this was a pretty impressive performance. 

Chargers 3-16 Patriots

The Chargers just never could get any offense going at all. QB Herbert has the Josh Allen problem: I think he's trying to hit home runs every time instead of taking the singles and doubles that are available, which means they put themselves in the position of having to get big plays instead of just putting together a proper balanced offense. (I blame the Chargers coaching staff for this) The Pats didn't exactly blow anyone away, but they steadily accumulated and held the Chargers in check and did what needed to be done. 

Texans 30-6 Steelers

The score was 7-6 well into the 4th quarter, don't been fooled by the scoreline. The Texans had a nice drive, then a scoop-and-score and finished the game with a pick-6 as QB Rodgers completely fell apart at the end. The Steelers have not been good for a decade at least, but they somehow just keeping living in the playoffs and I just don't get it. Now that Coach Tomlin has moved on and they definitely have no QB (are they really gonna go for 1 more year of Rdogers?), now is the time to finally re-tool the franchise. As for the Texans, well, if they could find an offensive identity to go with the smothering defense, they just might have something. Can they find that in Foxboro in January? 

AFC

Bills @ Broncos (-1.5, 45.5)

The Bills are susceptible to 2 things: a vicious pass rush on offense and a strong running game on defense. If the Broncos stick hard to a strong running game (which the Jags last week failed to adhere to) and if they can attack from the edge into the Bills backfield, this could be a rather easy win for the Broncos. But the Bills have QB Josh Allen and a good running game of their own. If the Bills can maintain possession and get after the Broncos's young QB, they can keep it close. Yeah, I'm a Bills fan and I want to believe the no Mahomes/Burrow/Lamar mojo and though I'm skeptical, I gotta go with the Bills. I know: I just laid out the case for a Broncos victory--a decisive and rather easy victory, no less--but Allen is a monster and the wild card in this game. If the Bills can stay within striking distance in the 4th quarter, I believe that Allen will do the striking. I'll take Bills 24-20 (Bills and the under)

Texans @ Patriots (-3, 40.5)

The Texans have a killer pass rush and aren't as inexperienced as has been portrayed, this their third straight trip to the playoffs and they came close to knocking off the Chiefs last year in KC. Can they hang with the Pats? Well, I don't think Pats' D is really any better than what the Texans faced last week in Pittsburgh, but then again QB Stroud didn't exactly light up the flailing Steelers (that scoreline is very deceiving, it was way closer than 30-6 would suggest). The Pats have a smart coach and a great young QB, but they haven't been here in a while and they haven't played a team as good as the Texans (outside of Buffalo) all season long. I hate to keep harping on the Pats' piss poor schedule, but competition matters and they haven't had any in a while. I think the Pats are good and ready to win but the Texans are gonna make them work and if Stroud can make some plays, the Texans can steal this. I think they will. I got Texans 21-20 (Texans and the over)

NFC

Niners @ Seahawks (-7, 44.5)

The Niners have been a puzzling team all year long: crippling injuries and a general mediocrity but they just kept winning games. TE Kittle is out and they just got smoked by the Seahawks a few weeks ago, how can the Niners win? Well, the Seahawks and their suffocating defense are led on the other side by QB Sam Darnold (who was injured in practice this week) and a monster season from WR Smith-Njigba. Do we believe in Darnold? Do we believe in Seattle's staggeringly 1-dimensional offense? Well, that defense is pretty fuckin' great and the path to a Championship is right in front of them. I like the Seahawks to dispose of the Niners but I don't think the Niners will make it easy for them. The spread is too large, I gotta take the Niners to keep it close and make the Seahawks scramble. Seahawks 27-24 (Niners and the over)

Rams @ Bears (+4.5, 48.5)

The Rams had a stretch of killer offense this season, but that hasn't been quite as impressive lately. And the Rams defense just doesn't inspire confidence. The Bears are young, they are new to this, and their calling card is struggling for three quarters then coming on big late. Can they do that again? I think they can. The Rams are a warm weather dome team going East to play in the snow, QB Stafford is a wily veteran but the conditions are not going to be in his favor and the Bears are hungry. I kinda love the Bears here, definitely to cover and I like them to win. Bears (late) 31-27 (Bears and the over)

2018-19 Super Bowl

NFC Conference Championship
Rams 26-23 (OT) Saints
Yes, this game will be remembered for the missed pass interference call near the Saints goal line around the 2 minute mark. But there were two other missed interference calls that people seem less pissed about: Saints on 3rd down early in the 4th quarter got jobbed on a missed call and the interception in OT was also interference (Brees got hit but the ball wasn't touched and no ref suggested that it was), which one was the worst? That said, the Saints also struggled to get FG's on their first two drives when they should've done better and with 5 minutes or so to go in the game they started inside their 50-yard line and went backwards instead of finishing off the game. So its not like the Saints offense machine was in perfect working order on this day. And I would submit that the Rams didn't have their best day either, so for the Saints to let this one get away from them is truly their own fault (though the refs will be the ones remembered). The Saints will still be good next year but considering their playoff performances of the last two years (and the fact that the Falcons and Panthers should be due for bounce-back seasons next year), its hard to imagine they come out of the NFC any time soon.


AFC Conference Championship
Pats 37-31 (OT) Chiefs
Weird game. The Chiefs did nothing--absolutely nothing!--in the 1st half and still should've won the game. Pats played a flawless opening half (minus an improbable Brady interception in the end zone, but even that was still a brilliant time-killing drive), and still had to scramble to stay in the game late. And even with the Chiefs' offensive dominance in the 2nd half, I still thought they left points on the table: dude, run Kelce one way, Hill the other, throw wherever the safety doesn't go--they could've done that all day. Passing to the RB's out of the backfield was another option they didn't figure out til too late. The Pats played well, not a surprise, but Brady threw two interceptions (a third was negated on an amazingly bone-headed defensive penalty) and the Pats D was seriously back-pedaling all through the 2nd half. But they won the toss in OT, never let Mahomes touch the ball and that was all it took. The Chiefs let this one get away from them, but they'll be back next year.


Super Bowl
Pats (-2.5) @ Rams (o/u 56.5)
This is as hard to figure as any game I've seen in a while. It feels like both teams have improbably overachieved to get to this point. The Pats are here every year, sure, but that doesn't mean the trophy automatically belongs to them; the Rams are here because they have solid talent all over the field but not much depth or ability to mix/match game plans. If the Rams play their best game, I think they'll win; but if they don't, I don't see how they recover and they could get ground up quickly. This game will be all about the lines: if the Pats O-line dominates, then the Pats will control the ball and run the clock; if the Rams O-line dominates, they'll pile on points and control the momentum. I feel like the Pats play better fast but here they'll need to play slow; the Rams play better when the offense is wide open but Belichik won't let them have everything.

The Pats are most susceptible to a strong pass rush and I'm betting the Rams D-line has success in slowing down the run and getting to Brady. As long as the Rams don't turn the ball over, I think they'll score consistently and keep the Pats off the ball. One quick prediction: the Pats are notorious for starting slow in Super Bowls but I bet they take the opening kick and start with a TD drive. But the Rams probably need to get punched in the face to get going, so even though I like the Pats to start fast, I think that ultimately works in the Rams' favor. I don't think the Rams will make the mistakes that the Falcons and Seahawks made, I think the Rams will be able to gain the lead and hold it.

I've been pretty awful picking games this post-season but I gotta take someone to win, so I'll take the Rams 30-24 (Rams and the under).

Super Bowl

The last football game of the year...always a bit melancholy. Aussie Open got 2017 off to a great start and I think the Super Bowl will be a good one too. We don't often get two killer offenses in the big game.

I thought the Falcons had the best offense in the league this year and the Pats were their usual high efficiency selves. The beauty of tonight's game is that while both teams are high powered offenses, they're both led by defensive minded coaches. Two weeks of prep time should make for some brilliant chess.

It is not uncommon for Super Bowl squads to come out tight, for 1st quarters to be awkward low scoring affairs. Tonight's contest will likely play out that way with a twist: these two squads are both offensive juggernauts so I think the nerves will be on the other side of the ball. I like both teams to score on their opening drives and then for the defenses to find their footing, making the rest of the 1st half a sloppy slog. I'll say Falcons 13-7 at halftime.

I like both defenses to play well but they'll both be cracked eventually. I think the model for tonight's game is the Panthers-Pats Super Bowl: low scoring for a while then an explosion of points in the 4th. Both of these offenses are too good to be stopped for long but I look forward to both coaching staffs keeping the defensive intensity high. (Kooky prediction: if the team that gets the ball first in the 2nd half scores, I think they'll win)

I like the Falcons 34-27. I'll take Matt Ryan as MVP.

NFL Final Four

NFC

Packers over Giants
NYG had the good defense going but a good D only inspires the bad Eli (makes bad teams good and good teams bad), so their strength becomes their weakness. Plus, Aaron Rodgers is just straight ballin' right now. This game really wasn't close--and OMG there was another fucking Hail Mary!

Seahawks over Lions
I thought Matt Stafford worked his ass off, thought he moved really well in the pocket, but he never had anyone to throw the ball to. The Lions this season had a fortuitous stretch of opponents and a pretty good offense. The Seahawks are looking kinda creaky but they're still plenty good enough to thump the Lions. This game, too, wasn't close.

Packers over Cowboys
I thought the Cowboys should've won this game, they had opportunities (and I'm blaming the philosophical approach, not the rookies, who I thought played pretty well), but they haven't been in the playoffs for a while and though they were the best team in the league, they weren't a complete enough team to stop prime Aaron Rodgers. I'm still not the impressed with the Packers: its just Rodgers by himself, that's tough to keep going in the NFL. Fascinating final 2-3 minutes of this game.

Falcons over Seahawks
The Falcons just straight pounded the Seahawks. The Seahawks started with an impressive TD drive and then did not much for the rest of the game. The Falcons were like a boxer that likes to get punched a little bit to get warmed up. The Falcons let the Seahawks do whatever they wanted on the first drive, gave them a false sense of confidence and then wore them down for the rest of the game.

Packers at Falcons
I was actually more impressed by the Falcons win over the Seahawks than I was by the Packers over the Cowboys. I know, I know: the Cowboys were the best team in the league this season and the Packers are peaking at just the right time, while the Seahawks are fading and jading and ready to fall apart. But the Falcons won by playing the game they've been playing all year long, whereas the Packers are clearly just making it up as they go, which is damn dangerous in the playoffs. I think the Packers could score some points but I am very confident the Falcons will score points--probably a lot of points. The Falcons are sliding into a high level groove, the Packers are rattling along with occasional bursts of brilliance. The fun money is obviously on Aaron Rodgers ballin' out, making 3-4 hero plays down the stretch and the old timey Pack offense rising again....but I ain't seeing it. The Falcon D is good enough to not get destroyed by the Packers and the Falcon O is probably the best in the league, rounding into shape at home at just the right time. I think Falcons run them out of the stadium. The Packers might get loose and run up the score but even then I still just can't see them outscoring the Falcons. I'll take the Falcons to win and cover (-6).

AFC

Texans over Raiders
I thought the Raiders had enough offense to get past the Texans but, man, Connor Cook looked like a flipped over turtle in the sun against that Texan pass rush. Right away you could tell the Raiders had no offense at all and while the Texans didn't look brilliant or anything, they did look like a perfectly ordinary NFL team while the Raiders looked like a beautiful sports car that's only got two tires on it (still beautiful but utterly useless).

Steelers over Dolphins
The Dolphins looked fine for the first few drives but once Matt Moore got hit...I haven't seen anyone drilled in the face like that Traci Lords in her prime (I dunno, too far?)...And they brought him back out! For one play he looked like a homeless man on the expressway, it was cringeworthy to watch. But once they got down to 3rd string, there was just no way they were gonna hang. I've been skeptical of the Steelers all year but they're way better than the Dolphins on a 3rd string QB.

Patriots over Texans
Do you see how this works: Tom Bady got exposed, the Pats played their worst game in years....and they effortlessly scored 30 points. Even on a bad day, they're gonna outscore most everyone they play. The Texan D really is one of the finest in the league--even while being decimated by injuries--but the Texans were never really in that game. Come on. The Pats started slow but they controlled the game comfortably throughout.

Steelers over Chiefs
The Chiefs were the better team, that D played well enough to keep Alex Smith in the game and the Chiefs offense had a few moments of looking pretty good. But not really. The Steelers moved the ball at will, they didn't pile up points but they ate up the clock, played solid D and avoided big mistakes. The Steelers are a veteran outfit that knows what they're doing. But that doesn't mean they're the better team on any given Sunday, it just means they'll play a professional game and expect to be in it at the end. I thought the Chiefs should've/could've won the game.

Steelers at Pats
The Pats on a bad day will still score a ton of points. I think they'll figure out the Steelers eventually and I suspect the Pats D will have some wrinkles for Roethlisberger and company. LaVeon Bell is the key to the Steeler attack now and the reason the Steelers can sit on leads and keep the other QB off the field. Belichik will stop Bell first and take his chances with Roethlisberger going over the top. If the Pats can avoid the big plays, they should easily take the Steelers. The Pats offense glides at this point and I don't think the Steelers will stop them. I'll take the Pats (-6) to win and cover.

I was flummoxed on the 1st round games, I had all four underdogs to at least cover, instead not one of them even put up a good game. The Raiders and Dolphins were cooked by injuries, the Lions and Giants were big play offenses that didn't get lucky. All four games were pretty flat.

The next round was good. Texans put on a pretty good show, the Seahawks started strong and looked kinda scary at first, while the Cowboys and Chiefs really should've played better at home but both still had chances to win late. But the winning teams were the better teams and the semi-finals looks pretty damn good after such a slow start to this season. The first half of the year had a weird shadow over it, all the teams (except Cowboys and Pats) looked mediocre, there was no real buzz about anything this year. But after Thanksgiving, NFL got really good. Its interesting for the Cowboys to be good again, they accounted for huge TV ratings all year. And these last three games are gonna make for good football.

I got Pats-Falcons for big trophy. Two really good offenses, two not bad defenses, shaping up to be a scorefest, haven't had one of those in a while.

NFL Playoffs Wrap Up

Chiefs 20-27 Pats
The Pats get the ball with about 7 minutes left and a two TD lead. Instead of handing off to Steven Jackson and running off some clock, they pass 3 times and go three-and-out. Why? I appreciate wanting to stay true to the offense and keeping up the intensity but at that point running off clock is more important than scoring points. I've always had a soft spot for the Brady-Belichick Pats (and Vladimir Putin, too, so....ya know) and I admire the desire to run through the finish line but, dude, there are times when Belichick does the dumb thing instead of the easy thing (go back and check out that absurd L they suffered to the Eagles this year). The Chiefs were so discombobulated by the end (that last scoring drive was just plain weird in their lack of intensity and proper clock management) that it didn't matter that the Pats gave them a chance to win. But one o' these days Belichick's high octane machismo is gonna get the Pats shot in the foot. I was right on the winner and the fave but I thought the Pats would keep it under (which they would have if they'd just run out the clock on that 4th quarter drive). Pats go to Denver next.

Packers 20-26 (OT) Cards
The Cards played tight, man, the anuses were clinched that night. That said I was impressed with the Packer defense (best I saw them all year long) and Rodgers was able to run up good yards with receivers even the fiercest Packer fan had never heard of. And OH MY GOD--another hail mary TD!?!? One thing when it comes against the sorry Detroit Lions but the mighty Arizona Cardinals should never have allowed that. I'll be generous and say it was redeemed by the brilliant (brilliant!) play call of a shovel pass to Fitsgerald on the goal line. But really this game was all about the Cards playing tight and the Packers playing like solid professionals. The Cards were the better team on both sides of the ball but they better come strong against the Panthers or they will get run out of the stadium. I was right on the winner but I missed the fave and the over. Cards off to Charlotte next week.

Seahawks 24-31 Panthers
I thought the Panthers would whomp the Seahawks and for the 1st half I was correct, Panther sup 31-0 at halftime. But the Seahawks let it all hang out in the 2nd half and the Panthers played rather tentative and Seattle had their shot at pulling off the miraculous comeback. But the deficit was just too large and time ran out on them. This was such a 1st half/2nd half kinda game that its hard to definitively say the Panthers were the clearly superior team but they definitely came out stronger and punched the Seahawks early. The Panthers play with a swagger that is gonna be tough for the hesitant Cards to keep up with. I was right on the winner, the fave and the over in this one.

Steelers 16-23 Broncos
Roethlisbeger shrugged off injuries and played well in this game (I thought the horse tranquilizers might wear off at halftime but he played well throughout). The Broncos moved the ball okay but struggled to put into the end zone, piling up FGs to stay in the game. The Steeler D played well, the offense had moments but the Broncos really were the better team despite Peyton Manning's so-so performance. The Bronco D is solid but the offense would be better served by putting Peyton out to pasture and letting Brock Osweiler manage the game. I thought the Broncos would score more and while I was right on the winner, the Broncos failed to cover and the points were under. The Pats are coming to town next week.

NFL Playoffs Round 2

Chiefs at Pats (-5)
Chiefs have freight trained their way through the last two months of football, absolutely plowed the Texans in Houston last week, they're running the ball well, playing good D, not turning the ball over, playing good special teams--and the last time they played the Pats (fall of 2014) they won like 400 to nothing. One could argue they're the hottest team left in the final eight. The Pats, on the other hand, have lost 4 of their last 6 games, feature mostly injured players in the skill positions and the offensive line and various off-field weirdness this week appears that the team is entire disarray. Yeah, I'm taking the Pats. The Pats scored less then 27 points only 4 times this year and as well as the Chiefs are playing, I don't see them stopping the Pat attack. Nor do I see them moving the ball on this kinda underrated Pats D. The Chiefs are a team of managers, they've got a bunch of dudes that don't make dumb mistakes but without Jeremy Maclin (questionable as of now) they're devoid of playmakers and to win in Foxboro, they'll need some special plays. I'll take the Brady-Belichick attack to grind down the Chiefs, easily cover and stay under (44.5). I'll say Pats 27-10.

Packers at Cards (-7.5)
The Packers started 6-0, stumbled down the stretch but looked like the old school Pack against the Redskins last week. Ehhh, I'm not buying it. I think Aaron Rodgers is amazing (won't get any MVP votes this year, but dude he's the only reason they've gone this far!) but the rest of the team is so uninspiring. But the Redskins are even more uninspiring, thus what looks like a resurgence was merely a mirage. The Cards, on the other hand, are the truth. They've been stomping people all year long, Carson Palmer is better than he's ever been, Bruce Arians is probably the Coach of the Year and that D is as good as any squad in the league. I do not see them blowing this one. I think Rodgers runs for his life and gets little help from his teammates. Cards to easily cover but I'll go over (50) because I think points will get scored. I'll say Cards 37-20.

Seahawks at Panthers (-2)
The Seahawks are coming off a gritty, gutty (lucky as shit) win in the frozen tundra of Minneapolis last week. Though they've made 3 straight NFC Finals, they don't seem like the juggernaut they've recently been. Last week's victory was a tough one, we'll see what they have left. Though the Panthers lost only once this year, they're giving only 2 points at home to a team that just got lucky as hell after a frustrating physical game in blistering cold. Are we still not convinced that the Panthers are good? Dude, the Panthers scored below 27 points only 3 times this year: 20 in a W in week 1, 24 in a W in week 2, 13 in their inexplicable loss to the Falcons in Week 16. Scoring points shouldn't be a problem though it is worth noting that the only good team the Panthers played all year long (Colts, Eagles, Packers all disappointing) was the Seahawks whom they beat 27-23 in week 6. They've played the Seahawks each of the last 4 years now, playing them stout each time and this time (I'd say) come in as the superior team. I'm convinced the Panthers are good, I think Cam Newton and Ron Rivera are on the short lists for MVP and Coach of the Year, I think the home fans in Carolina are ready for a big victory and I don't think they'll be the least bit intimidated by the big bad Seahawks. In short, I think the Panthers are gonna crush the shit out of the Seahawks. I'll say Panthers 38-13, which is Panthers and the over (44.5).

Steelers at Broncos (-9; opened at -5.5).
The Steelers got even luckier than the Seahawks last week and IMHO never should've gotten this far. Even at their best I didn't think they were a very strong team outside of an insane ability to chuck the ball down the field. They come into this game without #1 WR Antonio Brown, #1 RB D'Angelo Williams (actually #2 but Laveon Bell has been out for many many weeks) and #1 (in our hearts) QB Ben Roethlisberger. The punters clearly have no love for the depleted Steelers going on the road and I can't disagree--since I didn't think they'd be good enough even WITH all those guys! The Broncos have the #1 D in the league, a crazy home field advantage and have had a week to get healthy (as opposed to a week of the Steelers getting even more banged up). This would seem like a gimme, right? Well, yes and no. Another one of Broncos' upsides is that they have one of the greatest QBs of all time, Peyton Manning....except that Peyton's been shite all year long and except for a recent victory over al-Jazeera, has looked very very (very) bad for most of this season. But he's back in the lineup when frankly Brock Osweiler would be better for this team. Look, the Steelers are coming in depleted against the top defense in the league, the Broncos need only a solid manager to guide this team to victory. If Peyton does just enough to win, the Broncos will romp; if he tries to do too much, he might just Favre this game away. This game is so one-sided its scary. If Osweiler were playing, I'd take the Broncos and give the points without hesitation...but Peyton freaks me out. I'll still go ahead and take the Broncos to win big (say, 34-16) but of all the home faves, I feel like the Broncos have the best chance to blow it. I'll go ahead and say Broncos and the over (39.5) but, man, I wouldn't put MY money on it.

Super Bowl

(Player introductions have just begun, time to get out the Super Bowl pick)

As a lifelong Buffalo Bills fan, it is awkward for me to acknowledge that I've always really admired the Brady-Belichik Patriots.  I appreciate how hard they work to figure out how to win, in a world where the Philadelphia 76ers have built a long term strategy on sucking, how can you not like the Patriot attention to winning?  Belichik's legacy is as a master of roster construction as much a coach on the field; Sun Tzu would admire that he wins in the trenches because he has already won before getting to the trenches.  And while Brady doesn't eclipse any of my favorite QBs in terms of creativity, he does have massive numbers, tons of wins, and he's Belichik's QB of choice.  Obviously he is one of the great QBs of his generation (only Peyton Manning even has an argument of being better).

The Pats started this season slow.  Frankly, their OL play was so bad I thought maybe the curtain was beginning to fall.  But they righted the ship (and the Dolphins, Bengals and Texans all failed to gain ground), and since getting a beatdown in Kansas City early on, they've pretty much been untouchable.  The offense is back to being its usual machine-like self: predictable, efficient, effective.  The Pats D is the Achilles' Heel in the weak years but this season the secondary really turned out one of the best pass defenses in the league and they're solid at LB and stopping the run.

The Seahawks are the defending champs, I suspect they're the better team, they've played a harder schedule and braved a tougher playoff path than the Pats.  The D is one of the best in the league (though I'd say not as dominant as last year's version) and the offense features an efficient running game and an exciting passing game.  They've endured hardships this year (bad slump culminating in the exile of Percy Harvin) and just won perhaps the luckiest game of football I've ever seen (seriously, man, compared to the Seahawks comeback on the Packers, that Stanford lateral game looks like high school tomfoolery).  Everything is going the Seahawk way right now--they're even familiar with the stadium!  Yet somehow they roll in as the dog.

Pats (-1) at Seahawks (47.5).  These two are evenly matched but I supposed many thought that of last year's game that was over faster than a Tyson fight.

I think the Seahawks score first and get up 14-10 at the half.  Then the Pats offense starts piling up points and keep the lead through the 4th quarter.  I like the Pats to win 27-20.  Pats and the under.