Yawn. This series was over almost instantly, the Panthers are better at both ends and in every way than the Hurricanes, who are struggling to even look competitive. I'd be kinda shocked if this isn't over in 4.
West
Oilers 3-6 Stars
Oilers 3-0 Stars
Stars 1-6 Oilers
In Game One, the Oilers were up 3-1 going into the 3rd period. Out of the blue, the Stars dominated the shit out of the Oilers for 20 minutes and easily took Game One. Other than the 3rd period of Game One, the Oilers have completely controlled this series, again, better at both ends than their hapless opponent. They did give away a game, so this one will be going 5 games instead of 4, but this probably should've been a sweep.
We are headed to a rematch of last year's Final, which was a wild series with each team running 3 straight before the Oilers kinda collapsing in Game Seven. I suspect this year's series will be tighter but should still go 7 games.
The Panthers opened the scoring in the first few minutes of the game. I believe Game Two is the only game of this series where the winning team didn't score first. so it felt momentous that the Panthers got on the board first--especially so quickly. But the Oilers came right back and tied it up quicklike and it felt like this might be a goal fest. Both teams possessed well and defended well, too, both teams played well. But the Panthers were able to find the goal again in the 2nd period and though the Oilers had a few good looks, they just couldn't match it. In the final minutes of the game, the Oilers were just out of gas, even though the clock was running out, they just didn't have the energy or the legs to come up with a solid possession.
Good win for the Panthers. Like the Heat last year, they came to the edge of blowing a 3-0 lead but managed to regroup and outlast their opponents. I watched all of the games against the Rangers and the Oilers and though the Panthers did occasionally have a dud game, when they tightened up their defense, the Panthers were basically impossible to score on and those were two good offenses that they overcame.
Congrats, Panthers. I don't watch much hockey but I really do love it and I'm glad I got to catch so much of this year's Cup.
I thought the Panthers flat out sucked in the 1st period. They didn't get destroyed too bad, down just 1-0 going into the 2nd period, though the Oilers found the goal early in the 2nd period. The Oilers added to the lead again right at the end of the period, I wondered if the Panthers would ever show up.
In the 3rd period, the Panthers finally found the goal on a weird play, where the goalie just sorta fell over, leaving the net wide open. It felt like the Panthers had at least picked up the tempo, trying to get into the game. But as the game wound down and the Panthers had to go to the empty net, they just couldn't maintain possession and the Oilers tacked on two empty netters to send the crowd into a frenzy and the Series back to Florida.
Been a wild ride, glad I stuck with it. The Edmonton Oilers are my new favorite team! But Game Seven is still anyone's ball game, though the dominant defense that got the Panthers up 3-0 in the Final has vanished and the counter attacking offense went with it. They've got 60 minutes left to get it back and if they can then they can still win it (worked for the Miami Heat last year who nearly squandered a 3-0 lead on the Celtics last year). The Oilers definitely have the momentum but they still gotta go finish it off.
Okay, it's on! The Oilers came out cooking in the 1st period got up 3-0 early in the 2nd. The Panthers cut the lead to 2. Oilers pushed it to 4-1 (holy shit, that goal was sweet! The way McDavid knifes through the defense, then lays the easy-as-you-please layup was a thing of beauty, Magic to Worthy, Luke to Lively, some Diego Maradona shit, some Bo Jackson shit!). The Panthers immediately come back and cut the lead to 2.
Around the 7 minute mark in the 2nd period, I thought the Panthers took the attack back. The Oilers got sloppy on D and went through a long stretch of not protecting the possession and the Panthers kinda dominated for a while. The Panthers got the score to 4-3, then the Oilers finally clamped down and went back to some offense.
The Panthers pulled the goalie with about 4 minutes to go, the crowd was going nuts, but the Oilers stood up and almost scored an empty netter (wow, I don't think I've ever seen an empty netter hit the post), then a miraculously awesome defensieve swipe warded off another attempt. But the defense was too shredded to stop McDavid working the rebound to finish it off with about a minute to go.
And we go back to Edmonton for Game Six and I'm looking forward to it! If the Panthers had come back from being down 4-1 in the 2nd, that would've been awesome. Otherwise, I was rooting for the Oilers and I guess I'll continue to root for them as long as they're the underdog. Coming back from 3-0 really could happen here. I'm into it!
Man, both of these defenses are drum-like in their tightness. I thought the Panthers had basically two good looks at the goal--finished them both--and picked up an empty netter on the way out. Meanwhile, the Oilers had zero good looks at the goal in 60 minutes and scored zero goals. This reminded me of Game One in the Eastern Conference finals where the Panthers beat the Rangers by the same score. That, too, felt like a harbinger of an all-defense series but maybe not, that series had a fair amount of scoring and the Oilers-Stars version in the West had a lot more offense. So, while this has gotten off to a full-on defensive start, that might not be the shape of it.
The 1st goal was a nifty fast break where the third guy in the attack had just enough room to find the net because the forward defender couldn't recover in time, leaving a gap up the middle. The 2nd goal was a lovely searching pass that just happened to find the defender stretched out of position momentarily leaving an empty space in front of the net where luckily the forward was able to find the top shelf; don't want to discount its awesomeness, but the pass that led to the finish was just a piece of luck, really, a hopeful pass that was rewarded. In short, neither of those are examples of the cornerstone of the Panther attack.
I watched all of the Eastern conference Finals over the Rangers and most of the Western Finals over Dallas. My gut feeling is both of these teams have more offense and I expect this Series to loosen up, especially if Edmonton can keep it going. Not that I don't love some defensive hockey, just saying I think there's going to be goals scored.
(TWO) Oilers 1-4 Panthers
More of the same. The Oilers took the lead early when a rather innocuous breakaway chance dribbled through Bobrovsky's legs into the goal. Bobrovsky has been getting all the love, and that's great, but it seems to me that it is the full Panther defense that is parrying away the Oiler attack. Bobrovsky has certainly been good but he's mostly getting hit in the chest by desperate shot attempts. Thought it was weird that he gave up this piece of fluff, though.
But Rodridues was able to finish two tight rips in the 3rd to seal it. And they tacked on another empty netter.
The Panthers defense is so good that it creates patience opportunities at the other end. If the attack just maintains possession, they'll eventually find the lane. Not over yet but unless the Oilers find some kind of scoring acumen and do something to upset the Panther defense, then this one is over.
(THREE) Panthers 4-3 Oilers
Man, this series is looking exactly like the Mavs-Celtics series: in Game Three over there, the Mavs trying to avoid a sweep, got a nice lead early, couldn't hold it, got way down to the Celtics, who fell asleep and let the Mavs back into the game late, but held on to win anyway. (Replace Mavs with Oilers and Celtics with Panthers) I'm still so amazed that Edmonton just can't get a sniff of the goal. Everyone is praising Bobrovsky, and he's playing well, but his defense in front of him is leaving him very little to do. And the Panther attack is methodical, takes its time, but is punching holes more than the Oilers can hang with. Dude, the 2nd period of this match was like target practice for the Panthers, the Oiler D was getting stretched and the keeper got peppered.
3-0 is pretty much over--even in hockey--and, uh, yeah, this feels over to me. Maybe getting 3 goals (even in a losing effort) will ignite the attack...maybe....that could happen. But the Panthers are playing really well, I think they'll finish it in 4.
(FOUR) Panthers 1-8 Oilers
Well, now, wait a second....After 4 games the NHL Final looks an awful lot (right?) like the NBA finals. The better team is up 3-0, the drowning home team in Game Four steps and gets a big win. But the Celtics rolling over to the Mavs' last-gasp onslaught is not the same as the dominant Panthers defense getting steadily dismantled. In the first 8 periods the Oilers scored 2 goals; in the last 4 periods the Oilers scored 10 goals. The Oilers have dug a pretty deep hole, I'm not yet ready to say that they turned a corner at the end of Game Three, but I am more curious for Game Five than I thought I would be (whereas I fully expect the Celtics to rail the Mavs in Game Five and finish that series).
The Panthers looked untouchable til the 3rd period of GameThree, were they just taking the night off in Game Four? We'll see.
(FIVE) Oilers - Panthers
Yeah, I'm getting pretty excited for tonight's match! Whereas the Celtics easily finished off the Mavs in Game Five even after a shaky performance in Game Four, it feels different over here in the hockey world. I don't think you can just mail in a game in hockey like the Celtics do from time to time in basketball. Though the Celtics fans certainly felt shaky going into Game Five, you knew and I knew that the game was going to be a triumphant Celtic stomping (and it was) because Game Four was just a fluke.
But in this series, the sheer dominance the Oilers turned on in the last 1.3 games looks like they figured something out on the Panther defense--that wasn't simply a hamfisted performance by the Panthers or a lucky night for the Oilers. That was two teams and going at it and for the first time in the series, the Oilers looked like the dominant ones. Can they keep it going? I look forward to finding out tonight.
Okay, this is it. Last game. Sunday is just for spiritual reflection for the next 8 months...*sigh*
My initial thought, two weeks ago when this matchup was set, was that the Panthers have too much offense for the weak Bronco attack to keep up and this would probably be a blowout, definitely by the end of the 3rd quarter. But I'm having second thoughts. I can't help thinking that all the intangibles favor the Broncos and not the Panthers.
The Panthers have scored points at will this season and dominated teams at home. But the Broncos have the #1 defense and this is definitely not a home game. Also, while I don't expect the young-ish Panthers to be overwhelmed by the Super Bowl (indeed, I expect them to come out in full swagger), everything about this particular game will be different, there is no comfort level even if you're confident. The Panthers played in the 2nd worst division in the league this year and their non-conference opponents were the from the 1st worst division; their AFC games were the Eagles, Packers, Seahawks and Redskins, not bad but not great. So while they dominated, they didn't face a defense as good as the Broncos. And as good as their offense was, it was actually pretty streaky and quite capable of disappearing for long stretches of time.
The Broncos got gobsmacked by the Seahawks just two years ago and I suspect that's what some are expecting again tonight: Panthers laying the wood to poor hapless Peyton and winning 42-10. But that Seahawk defense was one of the best I've ever seen, whereas this Panther D, nice as it is, will be the 2nd best defense in this game. So that scenario doesn't play. Also the scenario of the Panther offense just bumrushing the end zone again and again...I'm not seeing it. The Broncos just worked Tom Brady and the Pats offensive attack and though Cam is more dynamic than Brady, the rest of the Panther offense isn't that much better than the Pats.
Look, Cam thoroughly desvered the MVP. I thought he was was the easy choice over Palmer, Brady and Rodgers. (A little surprised he also won Offensive Player of the Year--who was the last guy to win them both?) But that goes to underscore how NOT great the rest of the Panther offense it. They're all solid, don't get me wrong, but there aren't any unstoppable forces over there with Cam, no scary playmakers that'll go above and beyond. The Panther offense this year was all about Cam making it work for everybody else. The Bronco D really only has to take out one QB and they've shown they can do that. They just beat Brady and Roethlisberger, think they can't beat the guy that's never been to a Super Bowl before?
So am I saying the Broncos are gonna win? I dunno. The conundrum at the heart of this game is Peyton Manning. If Peyton is good, which he has not been all year long, then I would think the Broncos could win. But even in that there's a catch: classic badass Peyton Manning always kinda sucked in the big games! So even if old time Peyton appears, that might not be worth anything. I can't help thinking the Broncos are better with Brock Osweiler but he's not ready to win a Super Bowl and he's not the guy they're going with. This game...who would've think it...is all about Peyton Manning.
Which is why I think Cam Newton pulls it out. Right here, right now, Cam is the better player, the better playmaker and the better leader. (Cam is Namath, Peyton is Unitas)
I think both teams score on their opening drives and then its a slog after that. Over time I think the Panthers will score more points than the Broncos but it won't be easy and I don't see this game being a blowout. I'll say 7-7 after the 1st, Panthers up 13-10 at halftime, Panthers up 20-13 after the 3rd, Panthers win 26-23 after a furious 4th quarter (which is all anyone really wants). I think the Panthers lead pretty much the whole way but the Broncos remain in striking distance right to the end. Cam wins MVP.
Panthers (-4.5) at Broncos (44.5)
The Bronco pass rush is the only hope the Broncos have of even staying in this game. If they can keep Cam off balance as they did with Brady, then they've got a shot to keep the game low scoring and close enough for some 4th quarter magic. Personally, I don't see that happening. The Broncos have a good defense....so do the Cards and the Seahawks, the last two squads that got carved up by the Panthers.The Panthers have a variety of weapons that the Pats don't have and Cam is far more variable in his game than Brady, so even if the pass rush is top notch, I'm not sure that's gonna be good enough anyway. The Panthers will score at least 30 points and there's just no way the Broncos can keep up with that. This looks like a replay of Seahawks-Broncos Super Bowl from two years ago.
And after the Panthers drop a megaton bomb on Peyton Manning's last game (I mean, right?), won't we have to consider this Panther squad as one of the best single season teams of all time? Apart from an inexplicable brain fart against a division opponent, the Panthers have absolutely torched everyone they've played this season (and I think that will continue for one more week). Dude, they just drubbed the 2nd best team in the NFC and the defending NFC champs in the last two weeks after going 15-1 in the regular season. After they drub the #1 AFC team with the #1 defense and the Hall of Fame QB, how many other teams in history will have a resume that even comes close to that?
Cam Newton is your league MVP and should be the Super Bowl MVP, too. I gotta go Panthers and the over, something like Panthers 34-14. Book it, punters!
Chiefs 20-27 Pats
The Pats get the ball with about 7 minutes left and a two TD lead. Instead of handing off to Steven Jackson and running off some clock, they pass 3 times and go three-and-out. Why? I appreciate wanting to stay true to the offense and keeping up the intensity but at that point running off clock is more important than scoring points. I've always had a soft spot for the Brady-Belichick Pats (and Vladimir Putin, too, so....ya know) and I admire the desire to run through the finish line but, dude, there are times when Belichick does the dumb thing instead of the easy thing (go back and check out that absurd L they suffered to the Eagles this year). The Chiefs were so discombobulated by the end (that last scoring drive was just plain weird in their lack of intensity and proper clock management) that it didn't matter that the Pats gave them a chance to win. But one o' these days Belichick's high octane machismo is gonna get the Pats shot in the foot. I was right on the winner and the fave but I thought the Pats would keep it under (which they would have if they'd just run out the clock on that 4th quarter drive). Pats go to Denver next.
Packers 20-26 (OT) Cards
The Cards played tight, man, the anuses were clinched that night. That said I was impressed with the Packer defense (best I saw them all year long) and Rodgers was able to run up good yards with receivers even the fiercest Packer fan had never heard of. And OH MY GOD--another hail mary TD!?!? One thing when it comes against the sorry Detroit Lions but the mighty Arizona Cardinals should never have allowed that. I'll be generous and say it was redeemed by the brilliant (brilliant!) play call of a shovel pass to Fitsgerald on the goal line. But really this game was all about the Cards playing tight and the Packers playing like solid professionals. The Cards were the better team on both sides of the ball but they better come strong against the Panthers or they will get run out of the stadium. I was right on the winner but I missed the fave and the over. Cards off to Charlotte next week.
Seahawks 24-31 Panthers
I thought the Panthers would whomp the Seahawks and for the 1st half I was correct, Panther sup 31-0 at halftime. But the Seahawks let it all hang out in the 2nd half and the Panthers played rather tentative and Seattle had their shot at pulling off the miraculous comeback. But the deficit was just too large and time ran out on them. This was such a 1st half/2nd half kinda game that its hard to definitively say the Panthers were the clearly superior team but they definitely came out stronger and punched the Seahawks early. The Panthers play with a swagger that is gonna be tough for the hesitant Cards to keep up with. I was right on the winner, the fave and the over in this one.
Steelers 16-23 Broncos
Roethlisbeger shrugged off injuries and played well in this game (I thought the horse tranquilizers might wear off at halftime but he played well throughout). The Broncos moved the ball okay but struggled to put into the end zone, piling up FGs to stay in the game. The Steeler D played well, the offense had moments but the Broncos really were the better team despite Peyton Manning's so-so performance. The Bronco D is solid but the offense would be better served by putting Peyton out to pasture and letting Brock Osweiler manage the game. I thought the Broncos would score more and while I was right on the winner, the Broncos failed to cover and the points were under. The Pats are coming to town next week.
Chiefs at Pats (-5)
Chiefs have freight trained their way through the last two months of football, absolutely plowed the Texans in Houston last week, they're running the ball well, playing good D, not turning the ball over, playing good special teams--and the last time they played the Pats (fall of 2014) they won like 400 to nothing. One could argue they're the hottest team left in the final eight. The Pats, on the other hand, have lost 4 of their last 6 games, feature mostly injured players in the skill positions and the offensive line and various off-field weirdness this week appears that the team is entire disarray. Yeah, I'm taking the Pats. The Pats scored less then 27 points only 4 times this year and as well as the Chiefs are playing, I don't see them stopping the Pat attack. Nor do I see them moving the ball on this kinda underrated Pats D. The Chiefs are a team of managers, they've got a bunch of dudes that don't make dumb mistakes but without Jeremy Maclin (questionable as of now) they're devoid of playmakers and to win in Foxboro, they'll need some special plays. I'll take the Brady-Belichick attack to grind down the Chiefs, easily cover and stay under (44.5). I'll say Pats 27-10.
Packers at Cards (-7.5)
The Packers started 6-0, stumbled down the stretch but looked like the old school Pack against the Redskins last week. Ehhh, I'm not buying it. I think Aaron Rodgers is amazing (won't get any MVP votes this year, but dude he's the only reason they've gone this far!) but the rest of the team is so uninspiring. But the Redskins are even more uninspiring, thus what looks like a resurgence was merely a mirage. The Cards, on the other hand, are the truth. They've been stomping people all year long, Carson Palmer is better than he's ever been, Bruce Arians is probably the Coach of the Year and that D is as good as any squad in the league. I do not see them blowing this one. I think Rodgers runs for his life and gets little help from his teammates. Cards to easily cover but I'll go over (50) because I think points will get scored. I'll say Cards 37-20.
Seahawks at Panthers (-2)
The Seahawks are coming off a gritty, gutty (lucky as shit) win in the frozen tundra of Minneapolis last week. Though they've made 3 straight NFC Finals, they don't seem like the juggernaut they've recently been. Last week's victory was a tough one, we'll see what they have left. Though the Panthers lost only once this year, they're giving only 2 points at home to a team that just got lucky as hell after a frustrating physical game in blistering cold. Are we still not convinced that the Panthers are good? Dude, the Panthers scored below 27 points only 3 times this year: 20 in a W in week 1, 24 in a W in week 2, 13 in their inexplicable loss to the Falcons in Week 16. Scoring points shouldn't be a problem though it is worth noting that the only good team the Panthers played all year long (Colts, Eagles, Packers all disappointing) was the Seahawks whom they beat 27-23 in week 6. They've played the Seahawks each of the last 4 years now, playing them stout each time and this time (I'd say) come in as the superior team. I'm convinced the Panthers are good, I think Cam Newton and Ron Rivera are on the short lists for MVP and Coach of the Year, I think the home fans in Carolina are ready for a big victory and I don't think they'll be the least bit intimidated by the big bad Seahawks. In short, I think the Panthers are gonna crush the shit out of the Seahawks. I'll say Panthers 38-13, which is Panthers and the over (44.5).
Steelers at Broncos (-9; opened at -5.5).
The Steelers got even luckier than the Seahawks last week and IMHO never should've gotten this far. Even at their best I didn't think they were a very strong team outside of an insane ability to chuck the ball down the field. They come into this game without #1 WR Antonio Brown, #1 RB D'Angelo Williams (actually #2 but Laveon Bell has been out for many many weeks) and #1 (in our hearts) QB Ben Roethlisberger. The punters clearly have no love for the depleted Steelers going on the road and I can't disagree--since I didn't think they'd be good enough even WITH all those guys! The Broncos have the #1 D in the league, a crazy home field advantage and have had a week to get healthy (as opposed to a week of the Steelers getting even more banged up). This would seem like a gimme, right? Well, yes and no. Another one of Broncos' upsides is that they have one of the greatest QBs of all time, Peyton Manning....except that Peyton's been shite all year long and except for a recent victory over al-Jazeera, has looked very very (very) bad for most of this season. But he's back in the lineup when frankly Brock Osweiler would be better for this team. Look, the Steelers are coming in depleted against the top defense in the league, the Broncos need only a solid manager to guide this team to victory. If Peyton does just enough to win, the Broncos will romp; if he tries to do too much, he might just Favre this game away. This game is so one-sided its scary. If Osweiler were playing, I'd take the Broncos and give the points without hesitation...but Peyton freaks me out. I'll still go ahead and take the Broncos to win big (say, 34-16) but of all the home faves, I feel like the Broncos have the best chance to blow it. I'll go ahead and say Broncos and the over (39.5) but, man, I wouldn't put MY money on it.
