2025-26 NFL (Conference Championship)

AFC

Bills 30-33 (OT) Broncos

QB Josh Allen played the worst game of is life--and the Bills still should've won! 2 fumbles and 2 INTs that led to 3 FGs for the Broncos (and killed at least one pretty clear scoring opportunity for Buffalo) and yet the Bills were still in control late in the 4th and again in OT. Allen's problem is that he is trying to hit grand slams on every play instead of taking the singles and doubles that are available; so for the first 3 quarters he tries to do too much and only settles down when the clock starts to run out. If he played a little more....boring....throughout, I think he'd be a much more successful QB. (*) The Broncos had the right game plan and they pulled it off, but I think Allen's mistakes were more fatal than Bo Nix's and the Bills just couldn't emerge from the quicksand. Good win for the Broncos, they're a fine team that has made the most of their chances. 

Texans 16-28 Patriots

Wow, QB Stroud had the worst game of his life and yet the Texans were still in the game in the 4th quarter because as much ballyhooed as QB Drake Maye is, he wasn't that great on this day either. The difference: the Pats somehow managed to recover Maye's many many fumbles, whereas Stroud's interceptions were gone for good. Seriously, Stroud looked lost, he was uncommitted to his own choices, made such bad throws that he literally injured one of his receivers (no lie, torn ACL trying to reach back for a bad pass), he mostly looked like a guy that didn't want to be there. The Pats were better but somehow they didn't put the game away until pretty late and their offense mostly sputtered against the Texans pass rush. If Stroud could've pulled it together after half time, the game was still there to be taken. I like both of the QBs, I hope they are neither too high nor too low going forward because I still believe in both of them.

NFC

Niners 6-41 Seahawks

This is the third match between these two this season, felt to me coming in that even though the Niners had injuries, they would enough familiarity with their opponent and enough moxy and veteran savvy to put a real scare into their division foes. Nope. The Niners were done before they got off the bus. The Seahawks returned the opening kickoff for a TD and...well...that alone outscored the Niners on this day. The Niners really shouldn't have beaten the Eagles, but they were just begging to get beat. The Seahawks should've been tested with a fitter opponent, but instead they got a free pass to the conference championship. 

Rams 20-17 (OT) Bears

Fun game! (sorta) The wind and snow made for inhospitable conditions but it made the game interesting. Neither team could move the ball consistently and crazy plays were in abundance. None crazier than the longest 14-yard TD pass I've ever seen, which sent the game into OT.

I dunno, people will be down on QB Caleb Williams, I suppose, but he did what he had to do and it just came up short. Weird thought: I thought the Rams were probably the better team and this probably was the right outcomes, but the Bears had their shot to take it in OT and probably should've won. I dunno, they were both good, the Rams were better.

 

AFC

Pats @ Broncos (+3.5, 43.5)

#1 v #2....but does anyone really think these are the two best teams in the AFC? I like their young QBs and their experienced coaches, but I think they both overachieved this season in a conference with a lot of underachievers. They're both nice teams, they both did what they needed to do to get this far and they both deserve a gold star for doing their best. But, again, does anyone think these are the two best teams in the AFC? Well, especially considering that QB Nix is out with a broken ankle (an injury suffered very late in the Bills game and not even noticed until the coach announced at the post-game presser) and the Broncos will be riding long time back up QB Jarrett Stidham (**), who is as beloved a backup QB as there is in the league right now, so I guess the Broncos will have some confidence. The game plan for the Broncos is the same as it was for the Texans last week: crank up the pass rush, get in Drake Maye's face, clog up the running lanes, try to create turnovers (Maye does have 6 fumbles in the last 2 games) and set up easy scoring chances for your so-so offense. If they can turn the Pats over, they can definitely win the game. For the Pats, keep moving the ball, avoid turnovers, keep the Bronco offense in front of you, don't give up big plays. This game is all about turnovers, whoever gives the ball away will lose. I think there's a decent chance that that is the Pats' downfall here. I think the Broncos D comes up big, Stidham does enough and the Broncos steal it. Broncos 21-20 (Broncos and the under)

NFC

Rams @ Seahawks (-2.5, 45.5)

The Seahawks get another familiar division opponent this week. Last week it was the last gasp of the Niners, will this week be peak Rams or another last gasp? The Rams had moments of this season of arguably the best offense in the league....but that was a while ago. We haven't seen that high flying attack since before Xmas. The Seahawks all season long have been the best defense in the league, a robotic hitting machine that gets into the backfield and minimizes plays at the second level. The weird part of this game is Seahawks QB Darnold: he's been good all year long but he hasn't really had to be great and in the past whenever he needed to be great, he wasn't. Also, the Seahawks have an exceptionally 1-dimensional offense (namely WR Smith-Njigba) with not much variation. Will the Seahawks need Darnold to rise up? Maybe not. But if they do, will he show? Not sure. If the Rams play their best game, it'll challenge Darnold to make plays; but if the Seahawks D crushes a flailing Rams attack, then the Seahawks should win easily. This game really is a conundrum: I can see either team winning or losing in a blowout and likewise I can see either snatching victory late or having it snatched from them. I think the Seahawks defense is really good (special teams, too), but the offense is very rickety; I think the Rams offense at its best is a monster but at its worst will get swallowed up by the Seahawks rather easily. The least likely scenario would be a high scoring shootout, where the Rams toss aside the vaunted Seahawks D and Darnold plays the game of his life...but that would make for the most fun game and since I have no idea how to handicap this, I'll take the fun scenario. Seahawks 38-35 (Seahawks and the over)

(*) Life long Bills fan, I utterly adore Josh Allen, think he's the greatest in the game right now, but if he would just button up a smidge and take the easy plays, he would have fewer highlights and more wins. Don't listen to me, Josh, don't ever change, you're awesome and I appreciate all that you do...but I suspect you'd get more if you did less.

(**) Dude, I swear I thought Stidham was black, I see a white guy and I'm like, wait, I thought I knew what this guy looked like. Nope. That's the life of a backup QB, even one as seemingly prized as Stidham.

2025-26 NFL (Division Round)

Rams 34-31 Panthers

The Rams should have destroyed the Panthers, they didn't. Credit the Panthers for getting it up for the playoffs, but the Rams should've handled this quicker. I want to fall in love with the veteran savvy of the Rams, I'm a huge Stafford fan, but they just don't inspire confidence. 

Packers 27-31 Bears

This game was over. The Packers had a commanding lead and the Bears were struggling. Then....I dunno....the Bears pile up points and stole the game. This is one of those classic WTF-just-happened games. Don't mess with the Bears, man, they are so hard to put away.  

Bills 27-24 Jaguars

If the Jags had stuck to their commitment to the run (particluarly outside the tackles), I think they would've won this game rather easily. But they didn't do that, they kept trying to pass, and the Bills vanilla zone was able to absorb the attack. Meanwhile, Josh Allen suffered through 10 different injuries, kept chugging along and stole the victory. The game was on Jacksonville's racket and they failed to serve it out, a bit disappointing really. But Allen is a monster. 

Niners 23-19 Eagles

The Eagles sat around yelling at each other instead of just winning the game, which was a readily winnable game. The highs and lows of this Eagle team over the last 5 years or so will be studied for years to come: unbeatable when they feel like it, boring as hell when they don't show up. As for the Niners, QB Purdy is a steady force, he just never quits, you think he won't get it done but there he is getting it done. They lost TE Kittle but considering they never really got RB McCaffrey going, this was a pretty impressive performance. 

Chargers 3-16 Patriots

The Chargers just never could get any offense going at all. QB Herbert has the Josh Allen problem: I think he's trying to hit home runs every time instead of taking the singles and doubles that are available, which means they put themselves in the position of having to get big plays instead of just putting together a proper balanced offense. (I blame the Chargers coaching staff for this) The Pats didn't exactly blow anyone away, but they steadily accumulated and held the Chargers in check and did what needed to be done. 

Texans 30-6 Steelers

The score was 7-6 well into the 4th quarter, don't been fooled by the scoreline. The Texans had a nice drive, then a scoop-and-score and finished the game with a pick-6 as QB Rodgers completely fell apart at the end. The Steelers have not been good for a decade at least, but they somehow just keeping living in the playoffs and I just don't get it. Now that Coach Tomlin has moved on and they definitely have no QB (are they really gonna go for 1 more year of Rdogers?), now is the time to finally re-tool the franchise. As for the Texans, well, if they could find an offensive identity to go with the smothering defense, they just might have something. Can they find that in Foxboro in January? 

AFC

Bills @ Broncos (-1.5, 45.5)

The Bills are susceptible to 2 things: a vicious pass rush on offense and a strong running game on defense. If the Broncos stick hard to a strong running game (which the Jags last week failed to adhere to) and if they can attack from the edge into the Bills backfield, this could be a rather easy win for the Broncos. But the Bills have QB Josh Allen and a good running game of their own. If the Bills can maintain possession and get after the Broncos's young QB, they can keep it close. Yeah, I'm a Bills fan and I want to believe the no Mahomes/Burrow/Lamar mojo and though I'm skeptical, I gotta go with the Bills. I know: I just laid out the case for a Broncos victory--a decisive and rather easy victory, no less--but Allen is a monster and the wild card in this game. If the Bills can stay within striking distance in the 4th quarter, I believe that Allen will do the striking. I'll take Bills 24-20 (Bills and the under)

Texans @ Patriots (-3, 40.5)

The Texans have a killer pass rush and aren't as inexperienced as has been portrayed, this their third straight trip to the playoffs and they came close to knocking off the Chiefs last year in KC. Can they hang with the Pats? Well, I don't think Pats' D is really any better than what the Texans faced last week in Pittsburgh, but then again QB Stroud didn't exactly light up the flailing Steelers (that scoreline is very deceiving, it was way closer than 30-6 would suggest). The Pats have a smart coach and a great young QB, but they haven't been here in a while and they haven't played a team as good as the Texans (outside of Buffalo) all season long. I hate to keep harping on the Pats' piss poor schedule, but competition matters and they haven't had any in a while. I think the Pats are good and ready to win but the Texans are gonna make them work and if Stroud can make some plays, the Texans can steal this. I think they will. I got Texans 21-20 (Texans and the over)

NFC

Niners @ Seahawks (-7, 44.5)

The Niners have been a puzzling team all year long: crippling injuries and a general mediocrity but they just kept winning games. TE Kittle is out and they just got smoked by the Seahawks a few weeks ago, how can the Niners win? Well, the Seahawks and their suffocating defense are led on the other side by QB Sam Darnold (who was injured in practice this week) and a monster season from WR Smith-Njigba. Do we believe in Darnold? Do we believe in Seattle's staggeringly 1-dimensional offense? Well, that defense is pretty fuckin' great and the path to a Championship is right in front of them. I like the Seahawks to dispose of the Niners but I don't think the Niners will make it easy for them. The spread is too large, I gotta take the Niners to keep it close and make the Seahawks scramble. Seahawks 27-24 (Niners and the over)

Rams @ Bears (+4.5, 48.5)

The Rams had a stretch of killer offense this season, but that hasn't been quite as impressive lately. And the Rams defense just doesn't inspire confidence. The Bears are young, they are new to this, and their calling card is struggling for three quarters then coming on big late. Can they do that again? I think they can. The Rams are a warm weather dome team going East to play in the snow, QB Stafford is a wily veteran but the conditions are not going to be in his favor and the Bears are hungry. I kinda love the Bears here, definitely to cover and I like them to win. Bears (late) 31-27 (Bears and the over)

Super Bowl Prediction

Okay, this is it. Last game. Sunday is just for spiritual reflection for the next 8 months...*sigh*

My initial thought, two weeks ago when this matchup was set, was that the Panthers have too much offense for the weak Bronco attack to keep up and this would probably be a blowout, definitely by the end of the 3rd quarter. But I'm having second thoughts. I can't help thinking that all the intangibles favor the Broncos and not the Panthers.

The Panthers have scored points at will this season and dominated teams at home. But the Broncos have the #1 defense and this is definitely not a home game. Also, while I don't expect the young-ish Panthers to be overwhelmed by the Super Bowl (indeed, I expect them to come out in full swagger), everything about this particular game will be different, there is no comfort level even if you're confident. The Panthers played in the 2nd worst division in the league this year and their non-conference opponents were the from the 1st worst division; their AFC games were the Eagles, Packers, Seahawks and Redskins, not bad but not great. So while they dominated, they didn't face a defense as good as the Broncos. And as good as their offense was, it was actually pretty streaky and quite capable of disappearing for long stretches of time.

The Broncos got gobsmacked by the Seahawks just two years ago and I suspect that's what some are expecting again tonight: Panthers laying the wood to poor hapless Peyton and winning 42-10. But that Seahawk defense was one of the best I've ever seen, whereas this Panther D, nice as it is, will be the 2nd best defense in this game. So that scenario doesn't play. Also the scenario of the Panther offense just bumrushing the end zone again and again...I'm not seeing it. The Broncos just worked Tom Brady and the Pats offensive attack and though Cam is more dynamic than Brady, the rest of the Panther offense isn't that much better than the Pats.

Look, Cam thoroughly desvered the MVP. I thought he was was the easy choice over Palmer, Brady and Rodgers. (A little surprised he also won Offensive Player of the Year--who was the last guy to win them both?) But that goes to underscore how NOT great the rest of the Panther offense it. They're all solid, don't get me wrong, but there aren't any unstoppable forces over there with Cam, no scary playmakers that'll go above and beyond. The Panther offense this year was all about Cam making it work for everybody else. The Bronco D really only has to take out one QB and they've shown they can do that. They just beat Brady and Roethlisberger, think they can't beat the guy that's never been to a Super Bowl before?

So am I saying the Broncos are gonna win? I dunno. The conundrum at the heart of this game is Peyton Manning. If Peyton is good, which he has not been all year long, then I would think the Broncos could win. But even in that there's a catch: classic badass Peyton Manning always kinda sucked in the big games! So even if old time Peyton appears, that might not be worth anything. I can't help thinking the Broncos are better with Brock Osweiler but he's not ready to win a Super Bowl and he's not the guy they're going with. This game...who would've think it...is all about Peyton Manning.

Which is why I think Cam Newton pulls it out. Right here, right now, Cam is the better player, the better playmaker and the better leader. (Cam is Namath, Peyton is Unitas)

I think both teams score on their opening drives and then its a slog after that. Over time I think the Panthers will score more points than the Broncos but it won't be easy and I don't see this game being a blowout. I'll say 7-7 after the 1st, Panthers up 13-10 at halftime, Panthers up 20-13 after the 3rd, Panthers win 26-23 after a furious 4th quarter (which is all anyone really wants). I think the Panthers lead pretty much the whole way but the Broncos remain in striking distance right to the end. Cam wins MVP.

Super Bowl Preview

Panthers (-4.5) at Broncos (44.5)
The Bronco pass rush is the only hope the Broncos have of even staying in this game. If they can keep Cam off balance as they did with Brady, then they've got a shot to keep the game low scoring and close enough for some 4th quarter magic. Personally, I don't see that happening. The Broncos have a good defense....so do the Cards and the Seahawks, the last two squads that got carved up by the Panthers.The Panthers have a variety of weapons that the Pats don't have and Cam is far more variable in his game than Brady, so even if the pass rush is top notch, I'm not sure that's gonna be good enough anyway. The Panthers will score at least 30 points and there's just no way the Broncos can keep up with that. This looks like a replay of Seahawks-Broncos Super Bowl from two years ago.

And after the Panthers drop a megaton bomb on Peyton Manning's last game (I mean, right?), won't we have to consider this Panther squad as one of the best single season teams of all time? Apart from an inexplicable brain fart against a division opponent, the Panthers have absolutely torched everyone they've played this season (and I think that will continue for one more week). Dude, they just drubbed the 2nd best team in the NFC and the defending NFC champs in the last two weeks after going 15-1 in the regular season. After they drub the #1 AFC team with the #1 defense and the Hall of Fame QB, how many other teams in history will have a resume that even comes close to that?

Cam Newton is your league MVP and should be the Super Bowl MVP, too. I gotta go Panthers and the over, something like Panthers 34-14. Book it, punters!

NFL Playoffs Wrap Up

Chiefs 20-27 Pats
The Pats get the ball with about 7 minutes left and a two TD lead. Instead of handing off to Steven Jackson and running off some clock, they pass 3 times and go three-and-out. Why? I appreciate wanting to stay true to the offense and keeping up the intensity but at that point running off clock is more important than scoring points. I've always had a soft spot for the Brady-Belichick Pats (and Vladimir Putin, too, so....ya know) and I admire the desire to run through the finish line but, dude, there are times when Belichick does the dumb thing instead of the easy thing (go back and check out that absurd L they suffered to the Eagles this year). The Chiefs were so discombobulated by the end (that last scoring drive was just plain weird in their lack of intensity and proper clock management) that it didn't matter that the Pats gave them a chance to win. But one o' these days Belichick's high octane machismo is gonna get the Pats shot in the foot. I was right on the winner and the fave but I thought the Pats would keep it under (which they would have if they'd just run out the clock on that 4th quarter drive). Pats go to Denver next.

Packers 20-26 (OT) Cards
The Cards played tight, man, the anuses were clinched that night. That said I was impressed with the Packer defense (best I saw them all year long) and Rodgers was able to run up good yards with receivers even the fiercest Packer fan had never heard of. And OH MY GOD--another hail mary TD!?!? One thing when it comes against the sorry Detroit Lions but the mighty Arizona Cardinals should never have allowed that. I'll be generous and say it was redeemed by the brilliant (brilliant!) play call of a shovel pass to Fitsgerald on the goal line. But really this game was all about the Cards playing tight and the Packers playing like solid professionals. The Cards were the better team on both sides of the ball but they better come strong against the Panthers or they will get run out of the stadium. I was right on the winner but I missed the fave and the over. Cards off to Charlotte next week.

Seahawks 24-31 Panthers
I thought the Panthers would whomp the Seahawks and for the 1st half I was correct, Panther sup 31-0 at halftime. But the Seahawks let it all hang out in the 2nd half and the Panthers played rather tentative and Seattle had their shot at pulling off the miraculous comeback. But the deficit was just too large and time ran out on them. This was such a 1st half/2nd half kinda game that its hard to definitively say the Panthers were the clearly superior team but they definitely came out stronger and punched the Seahawks early. The Panthers play with a swagger that is gonna be tough for the hesitant Cards to keep up with. I was right on the winner, the fave and the over in this one.

Steelers 16-23 Broncos
Roethlisbeger shrugged off injuries and played well in this game (I thought the horse tranquilizers might wear off at halftime but he played well throughout). The Broncos moved the ball okay but struggled to put into the end zone, piling up FGs to stay in the game. The Steeler D played well, the offense had moments but the Broncos really were the better team despite Peyton Manning's so-so performance. The Bronco D is solid but the offense would be better served by putting Peyton out to pasture and letting Brock Osweiler manage the game. I thought the Broncos would score more and while I was right on the winner, the Broncos failed to cover and the points were under. The Pats are coming to town next week.

NFL Playoffs Round 2

Chiefs at Pats (-5)
Chiefs have freight trained their way through the last two months of football, absolutely plowed the Texans in Houston last week, they're running the ball well, playing good D, not turning the ball over, playing good special teams--and the last time they played the Pats (fall of 2014) they won like 400 to nothing. One could argue they're the hottest team left in the final eight. The Pats, on the other hand, have lost 4 of their last 6 games, feature mostly injured players in the skill positions and the offensive line and various off-field weirdness this week appears that the team is entire disarray. Yeah, I'm taking the Pats. The Pats scored less then 27 points only 4 times this year and as well as the Chiefs are playing, I don't see them stopping the Pat attack. Nor do I see them moving the ball on this kinda underrated Pats D. The Chiefs are a team of managers, they've got a bunch of dudes that don't make dumb mistakes but without Jeremy Maclin (questionable as of now) they're devoid of playmakers and to win in Foxboro, they'll need some special plays. I'll take the Brady-Belichick attack to grind down the Chiefs, easily cover and stay under (44.5). I'll say Pats 27-10.

Packers at Cards (-7.5)
The Packers started 6-0, stumbled down the stretch but looked like the old school Pack against the Redskins last week. Ehhh, I'm not buying it. I think Aaron Rodgers is amazing (won't get any MVP votes this year, but dude he's the only reason they've gone this far!) but the rest of the team is so uninspiring. But the Redskins are even more uninspiring, thus what looks like a resurgence was merely a mirage. The Cards, on the other hand, are the truth. They've been stomping people all year long, Carson Palmer is better than he's ever been, Bruce Arians is probably the Coach of the Year and that D is as good as any squad in the league. I do not see them blowing this one. I think Rodgers runs for his life and gets little help from his teammates. Cards to easily cover but I'll go over (50) because I think points will get scored. I'll say Cards 37-20.

Seahawks at Panthers (-2)
The Seahawks are coming off a gritty, gutty (lucky as shit) win in the frozen tundra of Minneapolis last week. Though they've made 3 straight NFC Finals, they don't seem like the juggernaut they've recently been. Last week's victory was a tough one, we'll see what they have left. Though the Panthers lost only once this year, they're giving only 2 points at home to a team that just got lucky as hell after a frustrating physical game in blistering cold. Are we still not convinced that the Panthers are good? Dude, the Panthers scored below 27 points only 3 times this year: 20 in a W in week 1, 24 in a W in week 2, 13 in their inexplicable loss to the Falcons in Week 16. Scoring points shouldn't be a problem though it is worth noting that the only good team the Panthers played all year long (Colts, Eagles, Packers all disappointing) was the Seahawks whom they beat 27-23 in week 6. They've played the Seahawks each of the last 4 years now, playing them stout each time and this time (I'd say) come in as the superior team. I'm convinced the Panthers are good, I think Cam Newton and Ron Rivera are on the short lists for MVP and Coach of the Year, I think the home fans in Carolina are ready for a big victory and I don't think they'll be the least bit intimidated by the big bad Seahawks. In short, I think the Panthers are gonna crush the shit out of the Seahawks. I'll say Panthers 38-13, which is Panthers and the over (44.5).

Steelers at Broncos (-9; opened at -5.5).
The Steelers got even luckier than the Seahawks last week and IMHO never should've gotten this far. Even at their best I didn't think they were a very strong team outside of an insane ability to chuck the ball down the field. They come into this game without #1 WR Antonio Brown, #1 RB D'Angelo Williams (actually #2 but Laveon Bell has been out for many many weeks) and #1 (in our hearts) QB Ben Roethlisberger. The punters clearly have no love for the depleted Steelers going on the road and I can't disagree--since I didn't think they'd be good enough even WITH all those guys! The Broncos have the #1 D in the league, a crazy home field advantage and have had a week to get healthy (as opposed to a week of the Steelers getting even more banged up). This would seem like a gimme, right? Well, yes and no. Another one of Broncos' upsides is that they have one of the greatest QBs of all time, Peyton Manning....except that Peyton's been shite all year long and except for a recent victory over al-Jazeera, has looked very very (very) bad for most of this season. But he's back in the lineup when frankly Brock Osweiler would be better for this team. Look, the Steelers are coming in depleted against the top defense in the league, the Broncos need only a solid manager to guide this team to victory. If Peyton does just enough to win, the Broncos will romp; if he tries to do too much, he might just Favre this game away. This game is so one-sided its scary. If Osweiler were playing, I'd take the Broncos and give the points without hesitation...but Peyton freaks me out. I'll still go ahead and take the Broncos to win big (say, 34-16) but of all the home faves, I feel like the Broncos have the best chance to blow it. I'll go ahead and say Broncos and the over (39.5) but, man, I wouldn't put MY money on it.