2025-26 NFL (Conference Championship)

AFC

Bills 30-33 (OT) Broncos

QB Josh Allen played the worst game of is life--and the Bills still should've won! 2 fumbles and 2 INTs that led to 3 FGs for the Broncos (and killed at least one pretty clear scoring opportunity for Buffalo) and yet the Bills were still in control late in the 4th and again in OT. Allen's problem is that he is trying to hit grand slams on every play instead of taking the singles and doubles that are available; so for the first 3 quarters he tries to do too much and only settles down when the clock starts to run out. If he played a little more....boring....throughout, I think he'd be a much more successful QB. (*) The Broncos had the right game plan and they pulled it off, but I think Allen's mistakes were more fatal than Bo Nix's and the Bills just couldn't emerge from the quicksand. Good win for the Broncos, they're a fine team that has made the most of their chances. 

Texans 16-28 Patriots

Wow, QB Stroud had the worst game of his life and yet the Texans were still in the game in the 4th quarter because as much ballyhooed as QB Drake Maye is, he wasn't that great on this day either. The difference: the Pats somehow managed to recover Maye's many many fumbles, whereas Stroud's interceptions were gone for good. Seriously, Stroud looked lost, he was uncommitted to his own choices, made such bad throws that he literally injured one of his receivers (no lie, torn ACL trying to reach back for a bad pass), he mostly looked like a guy that didn't want to be there. The Pats were better but somehow they didn't put the game away until pretty late and their offense mostly sputtered against the Texans pass rush. If Stroud could've pulled it together after half time, the game was still there to be taken. I like both of the QBs, I hope they are neither too high nor too low going forward because I still believe in both of them.

NFC

Niners 6-41 Seahawks

This is the third match between these two this season, felt to me coming in that even though the Niners had injuries, they would enough familiarity with their opponent and enough moxy and veteran savvy to put a real scare into their division foes. Nope. The Niners were done before they got off the bus. The Seahawks returned the opening kickoff for a TD and...well...that alone outscored the Niners on this day. The Niners really shouldn't have beaten the Eagles, but they were just begging to get beat. The Seahawks should've been tested with a fitter opponent, but instead they got a free pass to the conference championship. 

Rams 20-17 (OT) Bears

Fun game! (sorta) The wind and snow made for inhospitable conditions but it made the game interesting. Neither team could move the ball consistently and crazy plays were in abundance. None crazier than the longest 14-yard TD pass I've ever seen, which sent the game into OT.

I dunno, people will be down on QB Caleb Williams, I suppose, but he did what he had to do and it just came up short. Weird thought: I thought the Rams were probably the better team and this probably was the right outcomes, but the Bears had their shot to take it in OT and probably should've won. I dunno, they were both good, the Rams were better.

 

AFC

Pats @ Broncos (+3.5, 43.5)

#1 v #2....but does anyone really think these are the two best teams in the AFC? I like their young QBs and their experienced coaches, but I think they both overachieved this season in a conference with a lot of underachievers. They're both nice teams, they both did what they needed to do to get this far and they both deserve a gold star for doing their best. But, again, does anyone think these are the two best teams in the AFC? Well, especially considering that QB Nix is out with a broken ankle (an injury suffered very late in the Bills game and not even noticed until the coach announced at the post-game presser) and the Broncos will be riding long time back up QB Jarrett Stidham (**), who is as beloved a backup QB as there is in the league right now, so I guess the Broncos will have some confidence. The game plan for the Broncos is the same as it was for the Texans last week: crank up the pass rush, get in Drake Maye's face, clog up the running lanes, try to create turnovers (Maye does have 6 fumbles in the last 2 games) and set up easy scoring chances for your so-so offense. If they can turn the Pats over, they can definitely win the game. For the Pats, keep moving the ball, avoid turnovers, keep the Bronco offense in front of you, don't give up big plays. This game is all about turnovers, whoever gives the ball away will lose. I think there's a decent chance that that is the Pats' downfall here. I think the Broncos D comes up big, Stidham does enough and the Broncos steal it. Broncos 21-20 (Broncos and the under)

NFC

Rams @ Seahawks (-2.5, 45.5)

The Seahawks get another familiar division opponent this week. Last week it was the last gasp of the Niners, will this week be peak Rams or another last gasp? The Rams had moments of this season of arguably the best offense in the league....but that was a while ago. We haven't seen that high flying attack since before Xmas. The Seahawks all season long have been the best defense in the league, a robotic hitting machine that gets into the backfield and minimizes plays at the second level. The weird part of this game is Seahawks QB Darnold: he's been good all year long but he hasn't really had to be great and in the past whenever he needed to be great, he wasn't. Also, the Seahawks have an exceptionally 1-dimensional offense (namely WR Smith-Njigba) with not much variation. Will the Seahawks need Darnold to rise up? Maybe not. But if they do, will he show? Not sure. If the Rams play their best game, it'll challenge Darnold to make plays; but if the Seahawks D crushes a flailing Rams attack, then the Seahawks should win easily. This game really is a conundrum: I can see either team winning or losing in a blowout and likewise I can see either snatching victory late or having it snatched from them. I think the Seahawks defense is really good (special teams, too), but the offense is very rickety; I think the Rams offense at its best is a monster but at its worst will get swallowed up by the Seahawks rather easily. The least likely scenario would be a high scoring shootout, where the Rams toss aside the vaunted Seahawks D and Darnold plays the game of his life...but that would make for the most fun game and since I have no idea how to handicap this, I'll take the fun scenario. Seahawks 38-35 (Seahawks and the over)

(*) Life long Bills fan, I utterly adore Josh Allen, think he's the greatest in the game right now, but if he would just button up a smidge and take the easy plays, he would have fewer highlights and more wins. Don't listen to me, Josh, don't ever change, you're awesome and I appreciate all that you do...but I suspect you'd get more if you did less.

(**) Dude, I swear I thought Stidham was black, I see a white guy and I'm like, wait, I thought I knew what this guy looked like. Nope. That's the life of a backup QB, even one as seemingly prized as Stidham.