2021-22 NFL Season

Bengals 20-23 Rams

The score was close, both teams struggled against good defensive line play (especially in the 2nd half) and neither offense took control. But the Rams were the better team in the 1st half and outside of the Bengal TD on the first play of the 2nd half (on another dirty play the refs conveniently missed (*)), followed quickly by a fluke interception that led to another FG, the Rams pretty thoroughly dominated the 2nd half. Not the most exciting game, but a close hard fought contest, this was more of a defensive contest than what I had expected. 

The MVP went to Cooper Kupp, who came alive on the Rams' final drive when they took the lead, and that's fine but it was Matthew Stafford that got him the ball and it was Aaron Donald that took over the game from the interior of the defensive line that kept the Bengals from moving forward, so personally I had Kupp third on my MVP short list. Some downplay the game but it was compelling entertainment throughout and made for an interesting close to the season.  

All in all, the Chiefs and the Packers (my pre-season picks) were arguably the two best teams from beginning to end. But the Packers forgot about special teams and the Chiefs just suddenly forgot how to play in the 2nd half of the semifinal. The Rams had the most talent but probably needed some luck (like not having to go to Lambeau Field in January) and the Bills were the second best team in the AFC, but did not get their lucky break (that instead went to the Bengals). Joe Burrow is firmly among the best QB's in the league right now and Stafford is now a consensus Hall of Famer (I concur: he already had a career's worth of stats, just needed a SB win to put him in). 

All right....already looking forward to next year (when my Bills should take that next step). 

(*) Wait...isn't every scoring play automatically reviewed? Live it looked like it could've just been incidental contact (the WR slowed down a bit and the CB bumped into him) but on the replay, it is plainly obvious that the WR yanked the CB's facemask and threw him to the ground--how do you review it and not notice that? And why weren't the Rams able to throw their own review flag? Frankly that was the Bengals' finest offensive moment and it was clearly a foul that should've nullified the score.

2018-19 Super Bowl

Pats 13-3 Rams

This will be remembered as the Super Bowl where nothing happened. The Pats moved the ball reasonably well but outside of their single late TD drive, they always managed to sputter. The Rams, on the other hand, never got any offense going at all. Brady and Goff's stats were eeirly similar considering that Brady kinda moved the ball whereas Goff went 3-and-out on virtually every drive. Belichik and Brady win another one, the torch has yet to be passed.

The fact that people were bored by spectacular defense calls attention to a weird anomaly of seeing football on TV: in football watching the ball means you miss the entire defense, you literally only get half the game. In basketball and hockey, you can generally see all the players at any given moment; in baseball and soccer, there's pretty much nothing to see away from the ball. But in football there's a lot of action the TV audience never gets to see. Really all you ever get to see is the QB, another factor in the QB being the most famous, highest paid player on each team. Yeah, this game was so unmemorable that pointless observations like this were more interesting to me that revisiting the game itself. I admire good defense, but football without offense gives the viewer a lot of time to kill.

The Pats are in that year-to-year mode and looking over that AFC East, unless there's big leaps forward by Josh Allen (I suppose it's possible) or Sam Darnold (doubt it, NYJ are born to suck), I gotta give the Pats at least one more year in the playoffs with a good shot at a bye in the first round. As for the Rams, there's more competition in the NFC and still a decent chance that Jimmy G and the Niners make a push and the Seahawks are still hanging around; Goff looked shaky in the last two games and Sean McVey is not quite right to put the other coaches out to pasture, but I like the Rams to be a factor in the post-season next year.

*sigh* I miss football.

2018-19 Super Bowl

NFC Conference Championship
Rams 26-23 (OT) Saints
Yes, this game will be remembered for the missed pass interference call near the Saints goal line around the 2 minute mark. But there were two other missed interference calls that people seem less pissed about: Saints on 3rd down early in the 4th quarter got jobbed on a missed call and the interception in OT was also interference (Brees got hit but the ball wasn't touched and no ref suggested that it was), which one was the worst? That said, the Saints also struggled to get FG's on their first two drives when they should've done better and with 5 minutes or so to go in the game they started inside their 50-yard line and went backwards instead of finishing off the game. So its not like the Saints offense machine was in perfect working order on this day. And I would submit that the Rams didn't have their best day either, so for the Saints to let this one get away from them is truly their own fault (though the refs will be the ones remembered). The Saints will still be good next year but considering their playoff performances of the last two years (and the fact that the Falcons and Panthers should be due for bounce-back seasons next year), its hard to imagine they come out of the NFC any time soon.


AFC Conference Championship
Pats 37-31 (OT) Chiefs
Weird game. The Chiefs did nothing--absolutely nothing!--in the 1st half and still should've won the game. Pats played a flawless opening half (minus an improbable Brady interception in the end zone, but even that was still a brilliant time-killing drive), and still had to scramble to stay in the game late. And even with the Chiefs' offensive dominance in the 2nd half, I still thought they left points on the table: dude, run Kelce one way, Hill the other, throw wherever the safety doesn't go--they could've done that all day. Passing to the RB's out of the backfield was another option they didn't figure out til too late. The Pats played well, not a surprise, but Brady threw two interceptions (a third was negated on an amazingly bone-headed defensive penalty) and the Pats D was seriously back-pedaling all through the 2nd half. But they won the toss in OT, never let Mahomes touch the ball and that was all it took. The Chiefs let this one get away from them, but they'll be back next year.


Super Bowl
Pats (-2.5) @ Rams (o/u 56.5)
This is as hard to figure as any game I've seen in a while. It feels like both teams have improbably overachieved to get to this point. The Pats are here every year, sure, but that doesn't mean the trophy automatically belongs to them; the Rams are here because they have solid talent all over the field but not much depth or ability to mix/match game plans. If the Rams play their best game, I think they'll win; but if they don't, I don't see how they recover and they could get ground up quickly. This game will be all about the lines: if the Pats O-line dominates, then the Pats will control the ball and run the clock; if the Rams O-line dominates, they'll pile on points and control the momentum. I feel like the Pats play better fast but here they'll need to play slow; the Rams play better when the offense is wide open but Belichik won't let them have everything.

The Pats are most susceptible to a strong pass rush and I'm betting the Rams D-line has success in slowing down the run and getting to Brady. As long as the Rams don't turn the ball over, I think they'll score consistently and keep the Pats off the ball. One quick prediction: the Pats are notorious for starting slow in Super Bowls but I bet they take the opening kick and start with a TD drive. But the Rams probably need to get punched in the face to get going, so even though I like the Pats to start fast, I think that ultimately works in the Rams' favor. I don't think the Rams will make the mistakes that the Falcons and Seahawks made, I think the Rams will be able to gain the lead and hold it.

I've been pretty awful picking games this post-season but I gotta take someone to win, so I'll take the Rams 30-24 (Rams and the under).

2018-19 NFL Playoffs (2nd round)

Last week

Colts 21-7 Texans
The Colts charged through the 1st quarter, scoring on their first three drives and forcing a 3-and-out and an INT on the Texan's first two possessions. That's really about all that happened, though. The Colts offense kinda turtled after that, didn't really try to exert any pressure on the Texan D and the Texan offense just never got started, so even though they moved the ball fairly well in the 2nd half, it didn't really matter. The Colts came out strong, left the Texans dazed and confused for the rest of the match. I thought the criticism of DeShaun Watson was unfounded: I thought he made plays, it was his receivers that dropped balls and didn't get open, to which I credit the surprisingly effective Colts D. Easy W for the Colts, another playoff disappointment for the Texans.

Seahawks 22-24 Cowboys
I just kept waiting for Russell Wilson to shake loose and do Russell Wilson stuff but it never really happened. The Seahawks seems so intent on running the ball, running the ball, running the ball, that they never gave their best weapon a chance to open up and win the game for them. Weird. The Cowboys were fine, they grinded their way to an advantage and held on. I really thought the Seahawks could've won this game but they didn't. Cowboys are balanced and very very not bad all over the field, they're not great but they're good enough to work over teams that don't bring their A-game.

Chargers 23-17 Ravens
The Ravens just didn't have any offense at all. I like Lamar Jackson, he's an intriguing talent and he provided a spark to this Ravens squad but, man, he did not have the magic in his opening playoff game. The Chargers didn't put up much of a fight, they played for FG's instead of TD's, got an FG and a punt blocked and didn't seems that aggressive on defense. But they didn't need to because the Ravens just couldn't score or move the ball with any real power. The Chargers didn't play their best but they didn't have to.

Eagles 16-15 Bears
What a tough L for the Bears. I knew this game would be low scoring, both teams feature excellent pass rushes and offenses that kinda scuffle. I knew going in the Eagles would have trouble scoring and instantly rushed to the Bears to win. But as soon as the game started it dawned on me, 'Wait...how do the Bears score...?' Yeah, I kinda forgot that part of it, that the Bears would be every bit as challenged as the Eagles. The Bears had their chance, double doink off the upright and crossbar (I thought it went in off the crossbar at first) and a new Chicago legacy of frustration is born. The Eagles still got some magic in 'em.


This week

Colts @ Chiefs (-5.5) (o/u 56)
Two things to remember: that Chiefs offense is amazing and that Chiefs defense is terrible. So will the amazing offense out last the terrible D? I think it will. The Colts have beaten expectations all year long and overcame a truly awful start to get into the post-season. Andrew Luck is playing well as is his O-line and the defense stifled DeShaun Watson last week, so they deserve to be here (and are looking very dangerous for next season). But the Chiefs are too good to be held down and I think the potentially crazy weather is going to throw a wrench into the dome-safe Colts' plans. Don't be surprised, though, if the Colts are the better team that just can't get it done down the stretch. I'll take the Chiefs to seal it late, 31-27 (Colts and the over).

Cowboys @ Rams (-7) (o/u 49)
The first half of the season the Rams were the best team in the league; for the second half, they were better than average but not better than the cream of the crop. For the first half of the season the Cowboys were pretty bad but got hot in the second half and are playing as well as anyone in the NFC. Clear case: if the Rams find their form, they'll pummel the Cowboys because they're better in every way; but if the Rams struggle, the Cowboys will hang around and give them a game. I'm gonna split the difference and say the Rams have moments of brilliance in an otherwise disappointing game, but they still end up with enough to move on. I'll take the Rams in a clumsy, hard-fought 24-20 victory (Cowboys and the under).

Chargers @ Pats (-4) (o/u 47)
The Pats didn't look as good as usual this year: Gronk is probably done, Brady looks a little Eli-ish out there at times, the WR's are dropping passes. But the defense is underappreciated and they've still got enough veteran smarts to get a playoff game in Foxboro. The Chargers are the vagabond team playing well enough on offense and better-than-expected on defense. The weather will not be in the Chargers' favor but I don't think the weather looks to work for the Pats either. Rather than crazy pass happy shootout a Brady-Rivers game would suggest, I think this'll be a sludgey, slow, ground control game where field position makes all the difference. And I think the Chargers make more plays than the Pats. I'll take the Chargers 17-14 (Chargers and the under)

Eagles @ Saints (-8) (o/u 51)
The Saints have the QB and the defense to be the best in the league, their home field advantage is immense and their ability to steal games late means they've never out of it--even when they're not playing well. The Eagles are the improbable defending champs who are improbably looking to do the improbable all over again. I think the Eagles caught the Bears not ready for prime time, but I don't think they'll find the Saints in the same mood. But the Saints can make mistakes and the Eagles got nothing to lose, so I think this will be an exciting game that goes right to the end. I'll take the Saints 31-27 (Eagles and the over).